Cheltenham Festival 2018 (Preview) - What Will You Get For Your Money
What Cheltenham Subscribers Can Expect for their Money...
There are just a few days left before the best week of the year for those who like horse racing and gambling and many people who have already subscribed to, or are thinking of subscribing to the Betting Emporium tips and are asking how it all works. I'll try and answer some of the obvious questions here and to hopefully discourage those who might not really be ready for this particularly adventure. The Cheltenham Festival offers tremendous value, we can all get big bets on and watch the best horses run and although I'd happily bet that we win at evens, I would warn you that it is called gambling and this isn't a risk-free enterprise. Over the five years Betting Emporium has been going horse racing bets have a Return On Investment of +8.25% with quite a decent sample size. Sadly the last couple of years at the Festival have not been so great, (quite small losses but painful still), and it's definitely possible we lose.
What will happen for sure is that you'll get a write up on each of the twenty-eight races running through a few of the runners and highlighting those that might be value or could be a lay. The first race of the day will appear on the site at 9am and each race will then appear in order at 30 minute intervals. The last race of the day will be with you at noon. Some people ask if they can get them earlier or all in one go. I can tell you I've certainly thought long and hard about the best way to work and there are several factors to consider. If I do send the bets all at 9am then you get them when the market is much weaker and you may struggle to get on at the prices. If I send them all at 9am and it starts pouring with rain all morning I may wish I'd waited and could factor in the changing going. If I send them all at 9am I don't get to consult with a couple of sharp guys I like to talk to mid-morning, they often help me to discard the odd bet or maybe add one. If I send them all at 9am I don't tend to have all the non-runners and I want to think a lot about the betting shape of the races. I totally get it that people may want to do all the bets at one time if they are off to Cheltenham or busy at work but I think by sticking to rigid deadlines everyone should still know what to expect and when.
At the end of each essay I'll come up with some suggested bets, sometimes five in a race, mostly one or two and maybe no bets at all in one or two races. I would guess I'll end up with 50-60 bets on the week but it could be 40 or 70. Each bet will be from 1 Point to 50 Points. I would anticipate that an average race we'll bet 28 Points but there may be some where it's around 10 Points and others where it's closer to 50 Points. The range of Points that we bet during the week will be 750-1000 possibly leaning towards the lower number.
Lots of people ask how much money they will need and what they should gamble. I know from past experience that we have customers who usually bet £1000 on each horse and others who bet £25. It's not for me to tell you what you are comfortable with but I can help you think about the range of outcomes...
If you bet £10 a Point then most races you will have between £150 and £500 in play and through the week you'll bet maybe £8,000 in total. If we maintain our long-term ROI of 8.25% then you would win £660. We would get £199.99 and hopefully you'll be happy with how it's all gone. If we had a slightly annoying year like last year then you'll have bet £7610, about £270 a race, and you'd have lost £1440. Hopefully your reaction with that would be to feel a little peeved, think a bit about that rotten jump at the last that might have cost us in the Kim Muir and move on with the rest of your life, hopefully giving us a chance to redeem ourselves at Aintree. If you feel like your reaction would be to start an anonymous Twitter account and hound Joe and I for the rest of our lives or that your family or your health might suffer as a result of this week then I would urge you very strongly to not subscribe, it sounds like it isn't for you and we really don't need or want your money. If we repeated our excellent 2014 Cheltenham you'd bet £6030 and win £4175. Hopefully you'd realise that we ran above expectation but within the realms of possibility.
If these numbers all sound a bit big for you and you feel you might be more of a £50 a horse, £125 a race kind of guy let us consider what happens if you bet £5 a Point. You might bet £4,000 over the week, most bets would be around £75 and most races will have between £75 and £250 in play, if we match our long-term ROI you'll win £330 and we'll still get our £199.99 which means you'll make £130. Some people might be delighted at that, thinking they have had a fun week, learned a bit about gambling, racing or even themselves and that they now have enough for a meal out. Other people might think it seems a lot to pay if they aren't betting large amounts. It's not really for me to judge that. I would say that if you are betting £3 a Point or less then this might be a bit too much to pay for the tips. I'm afraid we don't offer discounts and we are happy that we don't have thousands of subscribers, it helps us to offer a good service and for us all to get bets on. I do know that some people subscribe and bet quite small amounts. They tell me they enjoy the write-ups, they feel they are learning and it's cheaper than losing!
The numbers I have outlined give you an idea of the range of possibilities. It's possible we lose every single bet but not that likely, given that most will be each-way. It's also possible that we have an amazing year and that the £2 a Point guys still make a big enough profit to pay their £199.99 and have plenty left. Hopefully though you now have a feel for what may happen.
In terms of the bets I can guarantee that we only will tip at prices that are properly available, two firms must have the price and we won't be referring to firms that don't offer punters a fair bet, unless there are two others to go to. I can also guarantee that all at Betting Emporium will live or die with you. We will bet on every selection and if we have any bad days or a bad week we will have put in some very long days and lost money. We definitely won't be in the mood after a losing day or a losing week for a lot of emails asking for money back or certainly not any containing abuse. The staff of Betting Emporium certainly can't change the way horses have just run and they do deserve respect at all times. If you do feel like you might be a little like the guy who complained after the Supreme a few years ago, a race where we had a tiny win bet on a horse who very sadly fell and died, then you may as well stop reading now. We'd just rather not do business with you. I can assure you that if we do have a great week and win a fortune we won't be asking you to pay again so please don't bother asking for a refund if it goes less well.
I can't think of any other things I need to cover, I certainly would say that I have some ideas about things I'm going to back already but I won't start putting the tips up until Tuesday as I definitely want to see how much rain they get over the weekend and also it wouldn't be great to those signing-up on Monday if the early people got 8/1 a horse that was now 5/1 so I think we all should wait and hopefully get the benefit of extra places on the day. I may just possibly give a FREE ante-post bet in the next couple of days but it depends on a few things.
Hopefully those of you that join us won't regret it and we'll all have a fun and profitable time.
You can sign up to the Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018 (Four Day Package) for £199.99 here
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