Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup Quarter Finals. Premier League fixtures include Everton v Chelsea
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter including the Midlands Grand National. All weather racing at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations
- Formula One, the Australian Grand Prix, the first race of the 2019 season
- Golf, On the USPGA the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass and the Kenya Open on the European Tour
- Tennis, ATP Indian Wells
Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)
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Free tip
2019 IPL Ante-Post Preview
The IPL begins its twelfth season next Saturday and runs until 12th May. Chennai Super Kings are the defending champions.
Best odds for the tournament at the time of writing are as follows
Sunrisers Hyderabad 9/2
Chennai Super Kings 11/2
RCB 6/1
Mumbai Indians 6/1
KKR 6/1
Rajastan Royals 6/1
Delhi Capitals 8/1
Kings XI Punjab 10/1
The group stage results in 2018 showed how evenly matched many of the sides in the competition were. CSK topped the league table with 9 wins, the bottom side had 5. Each side has potential match-winners and all sides tend to be competitive and consistency is difficult to come by.
I wouldn’t argue that Sunrisers are the favourites, they were finalists last season with Rashid Khan, a leg spinning match winner across a number of global T20 competitions, back again this year but at 9/2 their prospects are now well discounted. CSK is a powerful squad and a team that has never missed reaching the play-offs. RCB once more looks batting heavy and KKR are always competitive especially with their slower bowlers at home.
At the prices I think there is value outside the few favourites.
Kings XI Punjab haven’t made the play-offs since 2014. They started the 2018 competition brilliantly and were on course for a top four finish, but fell away after the first month losing five matches in a row. They eventually finished seventh in the competition. Why might it be different this year?
The main reason I am interested is not the presence of Chris Gayle and KL Rahul (third highest scoring batsman in the tournament last year) and the South African hitter David Miller but the options in the bowling line up and its typically bowling depth and options that are crucial in making a difference in these long competitions.
AJ Tye the Australian was top wicket taker in the competition last season with 24 wickets and he is back for 2019. Alongside Tye, options include Ashwin, Sam Curran, Mohammed Shami and Hardus Viljoen amongst the established players. As well Afghan teenager Mujeeb Ur Rahman developed fast in the last IPL. An off-spinner, he took 14 wickets in 11 matches at an average of 20.64 and an economy rate of under 7.
There is also a broader Investment in youth. Varun Chakravarthy was bought in the auction. He is a leg-spinner who showed potential in the Tamil Nadu Premier League where he picked up nine wickets at 20.88 and an economy rate of just 4.70. Also, in the 50-over domestic tournament in India he picked up 22 wickets at 16.68 finishing as the tournament's second highest wicket-taker. He is meant to have seven variations and will be an unknown quantity in the IPL for many opponents.
They have also invested heavily on Prabhsimran Singh, about to turn 19 this year, largely due to good performances with the India Under-19s/India Emerging team. Finally the young West Indian batsman Nicholas Pooran was recruited. He scored 379 runs in 11 matches at an average of 47 in the recent BPL and scored three half-centuries in the competition.
This doesn’t look like a team that should be outsider of 8 teams and 10-1. There is more depth than last season, and reasonable chance of making play-offs and therefore giving us a run in a wide open competition at a price.
10 points Kings XI Punjab to win the 2019 IPL 10-1 Betfred and SkyBet.
Rule the World
Recently World Rugby proposed a new annual 12 team World League. Under the original plans which were widely criticised Fiji, Samoa and Tonga would have been excluded from top level international rugby for 12 years from 2020. So would Georgia (ranked 12th in the world), Romania, Canada with no promotion or relegation.
Details released were as follows:
Six Nations: England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, Wales
Rugby Championship: Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa,Japan and USA
July: Three Tests against three of the six teams from the opposite hemisphere
November: Three Tests against the remaining three sides from the opposite hemisphere, plus a semi final and final hosted in Europe.
The impact on the Pacific nations would be profound. Ever since professionalism was introduced to the sport, Pacific Island players have faced the lure of bigger contracts from European and Super Rugby clubs if they give up international eligibility. With no games to be played against the likes of New Zealand, England and Ireland under the plans those decisions have become even easier. The money in England and France will become too good to turn down, leading to the end of their respective international sides.
This is all before addressing the concerns voiced by leading Test players about the added impact having to play up to five Tests in November.
In an age where player welfare is often cited as important, Jonny Sexton's comments in particular are apposite
"To suggest that players can play five incredibly high-level test matches in consecutive weeks in November, is out of touch and shows little understanding of the physical strain this brings.”
Meanwhile All Black captain Kieran Read said
“Fans want to see meaningful games; they don’t want to see fatigued players playing a reduced quality of rugby as part of a money-driven, weakened competition that doesn’t work for the players and clubs.
“With new technologies, new broadcast deals and new money coming into the sport, this is a crucial moment for rugby and one that many players are generally excited about. However, we have to make sure that the integrity of the game and welfare of the players is protected.”
Writing ahead of Thursday’s (yesterday as you read) meeting in Dublin there were already signs of back-tracking on these issues, such as removing the semi-finals from the competition. If this occurred the maximum number of games a team would play in the autumn block would be four - with a maximum total of 12 over the course of the year.
The Tier One countries have a clear question to resolve. Are you going to look after yourselves or are you going to look after the wider game?
Brodders Football Analysis
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown. All weather racing at Kempton and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, the final match in the T20 Series between the West Indies and England in St Kitts.
- Golf, On the USPGA the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and the Qatar Masters on the European Tour
- Tennis, ATP Indian Wells
Next week: The Cheltenham Festival (Tuesday 12th – 15th March 2019)
Full package including all the analysis and write-ups by Neil Channing costs £199 and is available here
Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)
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Free tip
West Indies v England 2nd T20 International, St Kitts
** Note starts Friday 8pm GMT **
The West Indies have impressed during England's tour of the Caribbean - winning the Test series 2-1 and drawing the 50-over series 2-2 - but their display in the first T20 of three at the same venue as this game on Tuesday was their worst performance in the field of the tour so far.
Bairstow hit 68 and England won by four wickets chasing down 160 comfortably. England went off 6/5, despite being the higher ranked T20 team, with some recency bias at play and also with England resting the IPL bound Moeen, Stokes and Buttler. For this second match England are into 10/11 in the outright market.
England’s bowling line up for the first game did well. The absence of Stokes and Moeen, and the decision to also rest fast bowler Mark Wood, meant fringe players Curran, Jordan and David Willey played more significant roles with the ball complementing Rashid and Plunkett.
Rashid tends to bowl the middle overs of the innings and these days is an experienced practitioner in all international one day formats and is routinely installed as favourite in the Top England bowler market.
Here prices are:
Rashid 3/1
Wood 100/30
Jordan 7/2
Curran 7/2
Plunkett 4/1
Willey 4/1
Willey tends to require swing conditions to be effective and Plunkett is as his best in bouncy conditions and presumably his place is vulnerable to the return of Mark Wood, who has only played 4 T20Is since 2015 but should at 90mph+ be an effective strike bowler in the format. Jordan is a third seamer who didn’t bowl his full complement of overs in the first game as England used six bowlers.
That leaves Tom Curran who took 4-36 in the first match. He bowls at either end of the innings and has an effective armoury of variants. In the 2018-19 BBL he was a top five wicket taker despite missing knockout stage to join this tour and in 8 T20Is so far has a strike rate of a wicket every 15 balls, the lowest of any bowler in the current England squad.
8 points Tom Curran Top England bowler second ODI at 7/2 with William Hill, Sportingbet and Ladbrokes/Coral
Change
With the ECB’s new “The Hundred” competition set to begin in 2020, other English competitions are due for a shake up too. For example Division One of the County Championship is set to expand to ten teams in the same season. Three sides would be promoted from Division Two at the end of next season and just one would be relegated.
Proposals to move from two divisions to three conferences and eliminate promotion and relegation were rejected as more than half of the 18 first-class counties were opposed to the change. They believe that two divisions promote better, more exciting cricket and that their members like the drama of promotion and relegation.
The number of matches will nevertheless remain at 14 per team. This means that in Division One counties will not play every other team home and away. One proposal to accommodate this is the use of a seeding system, although the details are to be decided.
The board has also approved recommendations that the 50-over one-day competition be played at the same time as the ECB’s new eight-team Hundred-ball competition, over five weeks in July and August. The new Hundred competition will include around 96 of the best white-ball players in the country not available for their counties so the 50-over tournament will become more of a development competition with opportunities for younger second-team players.
The changes will also mean that the T20 Blast is played alongside the County Championship, mostly on Thursday and Friday nights rather than in two three-week blocks as at present. The Blast group stages are likely to take place during May and June, with the finals day still in September after the completion of The Hundred.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd=3rd March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Arsenal and Everton v Liverpool
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. All weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- Cricket, the fifth match in the ODI Series between the West Indies and England in St Lucia.
- Golf, On the USPGA the Honda Classic at PGA National and the Oman Open on the European Tour
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Dubai, Acapulco and Sao Paulo
The Cheltenham Festival (Tuesday 12th – 15th March 2019)
Full package including all the analysis and write-ups by Neil Channing costs £199 and is available here
Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)
Now underway with seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here
Free tip
Cricket: West Indies v England 5th ODI, St Lucia, Saturday
The final game in the series takes place in St Lucia on Saturday. England lead the series 2-1 after a remarkable 4th ODI in Grenada on Wednesday
Jos Buttler smashed a brilliant century as England edged a thrilling fourth one-day international against West Indies in Grenada despite Chris Gayle's brilliant 162.The hosts almost chased down England's 418-6 - Buttler hitting 150 off just 77 balls - but the tourists held their nerve for a 29-run win as leg-spinner Adil Rashid took four wickets in the 48th over.It was a record-breaking match, testament to how playing conditions and regulations are now so batting friendly in the format
- 46 sixes were hit in the match, the most in an ODI.
- England hit a record 24 sixes in their innings.
- 807 runs were scored in the match; the third-highest aggregate total in ODI history.
- Buttler scored the most sixes in an ODI innings for England with 12.
- England passed 400 in ODIs for only the fourth time, all from 2015 onwards and for the first time away from England
This also sets up as a high scoring game, on a small ground.
In the West Indies top batsman market its no surprise to see Chris Gayle as favourite. At the start of his last year in international cricket, in this series he has hit 135,50 and 162 on perfect pitches. He’s listed at 5/2. No one would be surprised to see him go off again and hit another score. However at the age of 39 he trudged off very wearily after his 162 on Wednesday. He’s already a passenger in the field, and doesn’t run singles well when batting. I think we can oppose him for value but with who?
Shimron Hetmyer scored a hundred in the second ODI and now has 4 ODI hundreds. No other West Indies batsman has more than one century before Hetmyer’s age, 22
He averages 42 in 24 ODIs with 886 runs. He has an adaptable game, he can accumulate where the situation demands and has the power and inventiveness of the best modern young batsmen
He has been batting this ODI series at 5, though on occasions in his young career at 4 wheich is probably where he will end up. He scored 106 and 94 in India in successive ODIs last autumn and in this series has 130 runs at a trike rate of 126
In the betting Hetmyer is behind Hope/Lewis/Campbell two of whom will play at 2 and 3 and Hetmyer is available at 6-1 down to 11-2 With Campbell inconsistent, Hope has two scores over 50 this year in all formats as does Darren Bravo likely to be batting at 4. I would have Hetmyer in the 4/1 bracket where you find the other top five batsman apart from Gayle
10 points Shimron Hetmyer Top West Indies Batsman 5th ODI 6-1 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 11/2 William Hill and SkyBet
Innovation
Mid way through the Six Nations, we are near the start of a big Rugby year with the World Cup in Japan coming in September
One of the interesting aspects of the current tournament is that for the first time in a number of years there have been signs of innovation in attack. New Zealand aside, where the player’s individual skills have enabled them to rise above the often mediocrity elsewhere, the attacking game has struggled to break down “rugby league” style defences that were ushered into the game near the start of the professional era. That style of defence sees the defending side rush in a single line, a tackle is made, the ball is recycled and the play continues to the next phase or major collision. At least in rugby league you are limited to six tackles before losing possession.
In this Six Nations England, with a number of players skilled in the kicking game, have shown the evolution of an attacking style to exploit space behind the rush defence notably from different phases (kicking from first phase being comparatively simple to nullify, its expected) and places on the field to provide variety. If the platform is solid, its difficult to counter as the attacking side, knowing what to expect, can be a beat ahead of the defending side with cross kicks and grubbers rather than the traditional approach of hoisting a ball high into the air and creating a 50-50 contest for the ball fifteen yards further down the field. England’s issue, when the kicking game was countered in Cardiff was that there was no plan B. What might some future Plan B’s be?
The current thoughts come down to two areas. Firstly sides defend incredibly well close to breakdowns in the narrow channels. Defending teams position specialists there. The space is out wide, away from the big bodied defenders and we are seeing pockets of more expansive play to spread the field across the game. 16 of the 32 tries scored in the first two rounds of the Six Nations this year were scored by wingers. Secondly there are the beginnings of innovative thinking in terms of the use of individual players. Eddie Jones has talked about utilising Jack Nowell as a flanker and giving him a roving role, essentially allowing him to appear in unexpected areas of the field and the team to field three wingers. In the Southern Hemisphere some teams have lined up in line outs with backs receiving the throw (helped by the rules allowing lifting) and then unleashing big forwards on the backs once the ball has been secured.
How fast these innovations develop and what will be seen at the World Cup remains to be seen but this Six Nations has just seen a glimpse of what is to come, to which defences will have to adapt. Perhaps then the thought that if you were watching a match in black and white and not knowing which teams were which the current attacking styles of South Africa, Australia and most of the Northern Hemisphere are incredibly similar and you’d struggle to differentiate then, all facing established defensive settings.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool, and the EFL Cup final between Chelsea and Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the third round of the 2019 Six Nations
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Cricket, the ODI Series between the West Indies and England in the Caribbean.
- Golf, the WGC-Mexico and on the USPGA the Puerto Rico Open
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Delray Beach, Marseille and Rio
The Cheltenham Festival (Tuesday 12th – 15th March 2019)
Full package including all the analysis and write-ups by Neil Channing costs £199 and is available here
Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)
Now underway with seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here
Free tip
The Oscars by Neil Channing
As usual we have 24 categories this year and we have a load of odds-on favourites. There are just two categories where the favourite is odds-against although there are seven where it's bigger than 1/2. I started looking at all of those to try and find a value bet or two and I may have found something for us.
Edges
Earlier this month the Patriots and their Head Coach/Quarterback combination of Belichick and Brady won their sixth Superbowl since 2002.Much was made of the excellent defensive strategy that stymied Goff and the Rams during the game but the victory was the culmination of a different roster construction strategy than that followed by the rest of the league.
Under the new Collective Bargaining agreement between the league and the player’s union, between the shortening of available practice time, which has led to fewer meaningful players developing, and the rookie salary scale, which has pushed mid-level veteran contracts out of the sport, it should have been no surprise that every position other than quarterback has become a young man’s game over the last decade. Rule changes to protect them have essentially elongated many quarterback’s careers. Every other position and most teams are getting younger by the year.
While the majority of teams look to the draft to fill out depth on their rosters, the Patriots’ roster construction has stayed more veteran. It may have begun by necessity, as the team has been picking at the end of the draft for over 15 years so successful have they been. At the moment, only five New England players (Tom Brady, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Dont’a Hightower and Stephon Gilmore) have cap hits of $6mn plus in 2018, roughly 3% of their 2018 salary cap. Those six players are only making $28.8m between them in base salary this year within a salary cap of $177m.
Paying so few top-end players has allowed the Patriots to cultivate their roster with mid-level veteran contracts versus the stars and draft picks approach that most teams are taking.
New England had 19 veterans under contract who have cap hits between $1-6m in 2018 and those 19 players are near twice the average of an NFL playoff team and nearly four times the number of mid-level contracts on the Los Angeles Rams’ roster.
While most of the NFL has opted to lock in money into big veteran contracts, which often include a large signing bonus and two to three years of guaranteed salary, or rookie contracts, which also are also primarily based on guaranteed money at the top of the draft, the Patriots have chosen to sacrifice signing several star players for low-guarantee pay-as-you-go veteran contracts. This allows them to skip the growing pains of players transitioning from college football to the NFL while also giving them the flexibility to instantly drop a player whenever they can no longer perform up to their contract.
Those players, all together, only have a $20.4m dead cap (cost on the salary cap to release) in 2019. To put that into perspective, there are 27 players in the NFL (veterans who signed major contracts) who have a dead cap higher than that in 2019 alone.
As he has done many times in the past, head coach-general manager Bill Belichick has found a way to fully exploit the NFL’s talent market before most teams catch onto his trend. By the time the rest of the league pivots to that approach Belichick may be onto a new edge. It is not just in on the field coaching that Belichick is an all time great its in roster construction and off the field innovation too.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16-17th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup Fifth Round
- Rugby Union, the start of the 2019 Super Rugby Season
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. All weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton Park
- Cricket, the Big Bash final on Sunday. Next week the five match West Indies v England ODI Series
- Golf, the World Super Six in Perth, Australia and on the USPGA the Genesis Open at the Riviera GC
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, Rotterdam and New York
Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)
Now underway with seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here
Free tip
The 2018-19 Big Bash Final
Melbourne Renegades v Melbourne Stars (Sunday 3.45am GMT)
The Stars upset the odds in the first semi final, qualifying 4th in the league table with a 7-7 record and knocking off the long-time league leaders Hobart in Tasmania to reach the final.
The win was set-up by a sensational spell from unheralded Stars quick Dan Worrall who mixed seam, swing and slower balls to good effect. He took 4 for 23 including the prize scalp of Matthew Wade in the second over of the innings.
The Hurricanes lost three wickets in the Powerplay for only the second time in the tournament and again lost the game. Wade and D'Arcy Short contributed just 37 between them after scoring 810 as a pair throughout the tournament.
Stars leading players are Marcus Stoinis with 480 runs and new captain Glenn Maxwell down the order with 330. No bowler has taken more than 15 wickets in their15 games with DJ Bravo ahead of all-rounder Stoinis who has underlined his value with 14 wickets.
The Renegades qualified for the semi-finals with a second place finish in the league table.
In their home semi-final in Melbourne the top wicket-taker in the tournament Kane Richardson who had taken 24 wickets before the semi, went round the park and the Sixers scored a competitive 180-3 which the Renegades reached with two balls to spare with Finch anchoring the innings and the all-rounder Dan Christian rescuing the side from 133-6 with three sixes in his 31* batting seven.
For the final, a Melbourne Derby with the host Renegades my focus is on the Renegades top run scorer market
In Aaron Finch’s 7 innings in the competition (playing for the national side for the first half of the BBL season) he has scored 207 runs. Pro-rata, assuming similar performance over a full competition, he’d be comfortably the top Renegades run scorer in the tournament in a line up with only one other player over 300 runs in the tournament.
Over the course of 50 T20 Internationals and 250 games in total Finch has scored at a strike rate between 140-160 but in this competition his strike rate is 116 as he has taken on the role of providing the platform the side can base their innings around. An experienced big game player on a mixed-use small ground (the Marvel stadium hosts football and the AFL primarily) he has 70 scores of 50+ in his career
Here Finch is available at over 2/1 (21/10) with Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower and 2/1 elsewhere
10 points Aaron Finch Top Melbourne Renegades Batsman 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower and 2/1 elsewhere
Overtime
The NFL’s overtime system has been questioned since it was implemented in 1974, but after the play-offs this season it is facing the sharpest scrutiny since 2010, when the overtime rules were retooled.
Both the NFC and AFC championship games went into overtime, and in the latter matchup the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots combined for 48 second-half points, 31 of which came from Kansas City to tie the game at the end of regulation. The Chiefs did not get the ball again.
The Patriots correctly called heads on the overtime coin toss, elected to receive, and drove down the field to score a touchdown and win the game in sudden death. The loss sparked a few questions: How much influence should a coin toss have on the outcome of a game? Should overtime conclude after only one offense has stepped onto the field?
The original policy was amended because the team that won the coin flip had a disproportionate advantage. From 1994 (when the kickoff was moved back 5 yards) to 2010, the team that won the coin toss won nearly 60% of overtime games. Since the sudden-death rule was tweaked to exclude first-possession field goals in 2012, the disparity isn’t nearly as dramatic (52.7%) though in 5 of 8 post season matches that have gone to overtime since then under new rules, only one side has had the ball.
The NFL Competition committee meets each off-season and one thing likely to crop up this year is a variety of proposals to change and in some cases eliminate the impact of the coin toss.
One of these is likely to be a version of the rules that apply in college football where the team that wins the toss chooses whether to play on offense first or second and get the ball on opponents 25 yard line.
Nate Silver has suggested this system but modified so that offensive touchdowns only count in overtime, a system that would have got both Brady and Mahomes a chance to have the ball in the AFC Championship game.
Still though, in the college game there are inequities. The team that goes second has a massive advantage, knowing how many points it needs to tie or win the game. A ten year study found that teams that went second won 54.9% of the time. Another study found that teams that start on defense had a 52.1% win probability, smaller than the NFL’s but still significant. Allowing both teams to touch the ball lends plausible fairness to the game, but it doesn’t make it even.
There is no perfect system, and perhaps it is not the priority for the competition committee (still reflecting on chances to the catch and the tackle rules that proved so controversial this year) to change the current NFL system anyway in response to a high profile event
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
