Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches 28th-29th July
Coming up this weekend
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Semi finals
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest
- Tennis, ATP Atlanta, Gstaad and Hamburg Opens.
- Golf, the RBC Canadian Open and the Porsche European Open.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
Goodwood Festival (31st July - 4th August 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
Cricket England v India Test series Preview
India have arrived with arguably their best equipped squad in recent times and we could witness a classic contest in the second half of the cricketing summer
The test schedule is as follows
Aug 1st Edgbaston
Aug 9th Lord's
Aug 18th Trent Bridge
Aug 30th Southampton
Sep 7th Oval
Last time India toured England they were all at sea on green seaming pitches. Four years on they are the number one Test team in the World. India are now a significant challenge for any opposition whether home or away although much of India’s dominance in the format is in home conditions.
India have only won Test series in England three times in their history most recently in 2007 but this time feels different. This is the most well balanced, well drilled, fittest squad that has toured here. They have the perfect balance between youth and experience, and with England’s Test team far from settled, we could be in for a close fought series.
England are odds on to win the series, this feels incorrect given the talent in the teams, the hot weather leading to dry pitches and suiting India’s spinners with whom England have really struggled in the first part of the tour, particularly the leg spinner Kuldeep Yadav.
Sachin Tendulkar was interviewed this week and says he regards Kuldeep as a special talent and ready for Test cricket, his opportunities previously limited by Ashwin and Jadeja
“I have always maintained that he’s ready for the longest version of the game and that will be the most challenging one. I think he’s ready. Looking at his repertoire, he has the capability to go there and compete, without any doubt.”
Tendulkar believes the heat wave that has struck England this summer could bring India’s spinners into the game, tilting the scales decisively in India’s favour and I agree.
Kuldeep picked up nine wickets in the three-match ODI series and five from two matches in the Twenty20 International series against England before the Tests.
As the bilateral series wore on England began to read the spinner slightly better but the Test batting line-up is different to the limited overs unit. Kuldeep spins it both ways and with an identical action its very tough to read his googly. On August pitches (and England have hinted at what type of pitches they will be, recalling Adil Rashid to red ball cricket), he’ll be a real factor.
He has played two Tests to date, against Australia in Dharamsala and against Sri Lanka in Pallekele, taking nine wickets with best figures of 4/40.
England at odds on is price for the first part of a summer, green pitches and exposing India in unfamiliar conditions. In this summer, with parched squares and brown outfields India have conditions as good as they can be for an overseas tour outside the sub-continent.
India should be backed to win the series at 3.1 on the Exchange
10 points India to win the England Test Series 3.1 Betfair 2/1 Bet365
Shouting at clouds
As a hot summer trundles on further details are emerging of the ECB’s proposed new “The Hundred” competition, set to be introduced with 8 franchise teams from 2020 and which has been met with almost universal derision by regular cricket watchers, though perhaps that is not surprising. The aim after all is to reach a new audience.
According to the most recent plans "overs" will be bowled in blocks of five, with 10 balls from each end and bowlers permitted to deliver two sets in succession. The notion of one single 10-ball over at the end of the innings has been abandoned and it had been assumed that an even spread of 20 five-ball overs would be the next logical step.
However, the tournament's planners have come up with a new idea, as they attempt to shoehorn a match into a two-and-a-half-hour window.
Each innings of 100 balls will be divided into 20 sets of five, but unlike the traditional dynamic of the game consecutive "overs" will be bowled from the same end. Furthermore, one bowler will be entitled to bowl back-to-back "overs", rather than having to wait for a team-mate to complete a set before returning. Bowlers will be permited a maximum of four "overs" each.
The format will be trialled at Trent Bridge, for men, and Loughborough, for women, in September. It is suggested that the trial will involve teams of 15 a side too.
Meanwhile current cricket formats have been prospering this summer. Attendances were even up for the 50 over Royal London Cup, a competition shoehorned into the off-peak part of the summer and with mostly midweek matches; The early stages of the T20 Blast are showing the same. The international white‑ball matches have been sell-outs, though India being the visitors helps. The Test series against India, five tests starting at the beginning of August, is as box office as Tests get, the Ashes apart. It is only really the terrible scheduling of the four day game, with the majority of matches in April/May and September that rankles.
For cricket lovers, of which I am unashamedly one (possibly because at Grace Road, Leicester on a Wednesday afternoon this season I was referred to as “young un”!) the advent of The Hundred creates as much excitement and bewilderment as arguments over Brexit; A good percentage do not want it to happen and those of us who don’t are reduced to pining for the least worst option and effectively shouting at clouds that ”it’s going to be a disaster” at an audience that isn’t listening. Of course that applies here because the Hundred is not designed for cricket lovers.
The acceptance of the notion that a whole new audience will be enticed by five‑ball overs and 100 balls is a triumph for those in marketing but only if they have factored in the alienation of the many cricket fans, especially in the shires, who have no intention of watching contrived teams with which they have no affinity in a shortened game miles from home.
As one columnist wrote last week
"There’s scarcely been a better time to be a follower of English cricket. And yet, from the way the ECB talks about its existing audience in opposition to its new, target audience, you would be forgiven for thinking we existed in two different universes."
The real problem is it will condemn The Blast to second class status. This will sow the seeds of destruction of an 18 County system. Counties will from 2020 be supported by £1.3m ECB handouts for NOT playing cricket, the thin end of a very thick wedge.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-21st July
Coming up this weekend
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Cartmel and Market Rasen.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Quarter finals
- Formula One, the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim
- Tennis, ATP Hall of Fame Championships in Rhode Island, ATP Croatia and Swedish Opens.
- Golf, the Open Championship at Carnoustie.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
Goodwood Festival (31st July - 4th August 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
Super Rugby Quarter final Hurricanes v Chiefs Friday 8.30am start
The quarter-finalists for the 2018 edition of Super Rugby have been confirmed following the completion of the round robin stages.
The eight teams are seeded with finishers 1-4 on the league table getting home quarter finals. The first quarter final takes place on Friday morning, 8.30am start between the Hurricanes and the Chiefs.
With the Crusaders winning the New Zealand conference and clinching the top seed these are the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in New Zealand and the top two wild card teams both with 11-5 win-loss records during the regular season.
The two teams met last weekend at the Chiefs, who won 28-24 having been 21-0 up at half time. That second half rally ensured home advantage is with the Hurricanes this weekend, finishing two points higher than the Chiefs after 16 games. Earlier this season the teams met in Wellington and that match was won 25-13 by the Hurricanes, a game with more riding on it than last weekend when line ups were changed, players were rested and both teams were at full pelt.
The winner here is likely to have the dubious honour of a trip to reigning champions the Crusaders in the semi-finals.
A close match is in prospect but of course home advantage is reversed which accounts for the point spread of -5 Hurricanes. That home advantage is likely to be crucial. The Hurricanes won all eight of their regular season matches at home
The Hurricanes, at one stage challenging the Crusaders to win the conference have had a disappointing end to the season winning one of their last five games but should have enough here in large part due to the flair and firepower of a back line sparked by halfback pairing TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett with regular try scorers Ben Lam and Ngani Laumape outside now backed up by Milner-Skudder at full-back
It’s going to be close though.
10 points Hurricanes to win by 1-12 points 15/8 Betfair Sportsbook 7/4 Skybet 13/8 Sportingbet
Packed House
IMPECT, formed by former Bayer Leverkusen and Germany midfielder Stefan Reinartz, created a new idea for football stats in 2016. Their idea is that after every successful offensive action, there should be fewer opponents between the ball and the goal. Those that were behind the ball and were no longer, were considered “packed”.
He quoted his basic idea as follows ““It’s ultimately about retaining possession whilst getting past the opponents. The opponent is our problem and to solve it, I want to get past the opponent with the ball”
According to IMPECT, players can be packed in various ways. Namely:
- Vertical passes
- Diagonal balls
- Dribbles
A pass would need to be received and controlled for it to be counted as successful. For dribbles, the opponents that he passed on his way to goal are now considered packed.
Add all the players that were packed by means of these three, and you have yourself the “packing rate”.
Packing rate is a statistic that measures how much you outplay your opponents in a single game.The more players you pack in a single game, the higher your packing rate. Therefore, the higher the packing rate, the more opponents you outplayed.
Coaches such as Domenico Tedesco, who finished second with Schalke last season in Germany, and new PSG coach Thomas Tuchel, both use it in their team and opponent analyses. It came to wider attention due to publicity in the World Cup. Eight of the teams making up the top nine in ‘net bypassed defenders’ for the World Cup group stages qualified for the last 16.
Leaving aside draws only four world cup matches were won by the team who bypassed fewer defenders. In games with a result, the team who bypassed more defenders won 91% of the time.
If a player consistently holds his opponents to a lower packing rate than their average, then the statistic contends that that player is a good defender. Likewise, if a player always has high packing rates, that makes him a good offensive player. This can be used in team analysis as well to determine which plays, combinations, or strategies produce a higher packing rate.
England and more specifically the Premier League is a particular point of focus. Next season, IMPECT will be working with data from the Premier League and the Championship for the first time and, as a result, teams in England with co-founder Jens Hegeler playing for Bristol City. They currently work with 10 Bundesliga outfits, and Impect are in talks with two unnamed top six Premier League clubs.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The World Cup Final
- Cricket, the 2nd ODI between England and India at Lords on Saturday
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York. Over the jumps at Newton Abbot
- Tennis, the final weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, on the USPGA the John Deere Classic and on the European Tour the Scottish Open.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
Goodwood Festival (31st July - 4th August 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
The Open Championship, Carnoustie
The 2018 Open Championship next week returns to Carnoustie in Angus. Quoted as "The most challenging golf links in the world", Carnoustie has a fierce reputation. It has hosted seven Opens and four have been won over par though last time eleven years ago in benign conditions Harrington shot -7 to win.
A flat course much of Carnoustie's difficulty is based around its length (7402 yards, par 71 but only two par 5s), plenty of out of bounds and deep pot bunkers both in the fairway and around the greens.
Obviously writing this a week ahead of the event. The weather looks set fair with firm dry conditions.
Looking back on 2007 (I actually remember Van Der Velde and the Burn at Carnoustie in rough conditions in 1999 better) Carnoustie certainly favoured the longer hitters. The top 3 finishers of Harrington, Garcia and Romero were all in the top 12 for Driving Distance. The other intersting statistic is that the three players also ranked 1st (Harrington), 6th (Garcia) and 16th (Romero) for scrambling. On a course where the best players were missing 18-20 greens over the tournament, scrambling to make par was more important than a hot putter.
So let’s put driving distance and Scrambling on the criteria.
Generally in form players are those to follow in Opens. It makes sense that those who are struggling with their games are unlikely to find form on a tough links course. 12 Champions from the last 18 events had won a tournament in the same season prior to winning.
So checking the stats and cross referencing for those popping up on driving distance, scrambling and recent form I found a player who ticked all three boxes. On the USPGA this year he is 14th in driving length, 4th in Scrambling, he’s won twice and in addition is 1stI in sand saves.
This player began hitting my shortlists early in 2018 when he was consistently right near the top of the putting columns. However I was also consistently put off by the “timeform squiggle” factors which in this instance were health concerns ( two years suffering from vertigo and back problems) and family issues, his wife suffered a miscarriage and his Mum had cancer. These combined had been a major factor, understandably enough, in why he hadn’t won in 2017 and had slipped down the world rankings.
So I had better mention who I had in mind: Jason Day. Whilst my squiggles led to me crossing him off and this hadn’t cost me in majors by doing so he has begun to win again, this year in the Wells Fargo and the Farmers at Torrey Pines and sometimes was winning without his best game too.
The off the field stuff is in better shape, he said in a recent Golf Digest interview
“Everything feels balanced in my life. I’ve got no problems at home or distractions, I’m focussed on golf”
Back when Day was winning a lot and world number 1, he finished 4th in the 2015 Open at St Andrews, the one where this column backed Oosthuizen who was pipped in the play off by Zach Johnson. Carnoustie is narrower than St Andrews, and Day isn’t as straight as he is long but this is a player whose short to mid-short game is in a great shape, he’s back to number seven in the rankings and we are not taking the prices we would have to take three years ago when he won a major and was routinely going off near the head of the market.
We can back him at 33-1 here getting 7 places with Sportingbet and for those who can with Skybet 10 places at 28-1. Worth checking out the various offers around next week for the best combination of odds and extra places.
10 points each way Jason Day to win the Open
33-1 Sportingbet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
28-1 SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
25-1 Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
VARiance
Ten years ago cricket introduced DRS and the view was that it would benefit batsmen, previously dismissed incorrectly. In fact the reverse occurred, technology showed that umpires were mistaken in not awarding enough LBW decisions especially to spinners. Very quickly batsmen had to adapt techniques to avoid being given out if they played forward, where previously umpires had given them the benefit of the doubt.
Now of course as we reach the end of the World Cup, football is beginning a similar process because of VAR. The group stages saw 24 penalties in 48 games and an average of seven incident referrals per game. One of the notable features was VAR initially and then referees on their own punishing defenders for grappling attackers at set pieces, notably corners. Very quickly it became evident that the defender no longer has the benefit of the doubt.
Until defenders adapt the set piece delivery is going to assume greater importance, and of course this is an area in which England have excelled. By the by 44% of the 161 goals at this world cup have been from set-pieces.
Meanwhile more handballs are being given, as the traditional benefit of the doubt enjoyed by defenders is eroded by a variety of camera angles and communication between truck and referee.
It has also had a marked effect on player discipline, which is logical enough. Players know they can’t get away with the dark arts (though Colombia had a good go). In this World Cup there have been 4 red cards compared to 10 in 2014 and 17 in 2010. It could be argued that VAR is helping to clean up the game.
The use of VAR is in its early stages and all of its effects are not clear yet except that we know it is impacting optimal defensive strategies and while we don’t know where that will lead in full (might it mean traditional wingers come back into fashion, given the importance of crosses in an era where handballs and grappling are going to be routinely spotted?) it’s a reasonable supposition to say that it will affect the way the game is being played. It did so in other games, cricket mentioned above but rugby, basketball, the NFL are others were technology has influenced strategy and coaching. Who adapts quickest, from coaches to players might be a big determinant of success, and form a part of our betting considerations .
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,610 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.15% (correct at 27/06/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,561 All bets have an ROI +3.43%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,561 a 1014% increase
(correct at 27/06/2018)
The Road to Riches Week of 7th-8th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The Quarter Finals of the World Cup. It’s Coming Home.
- Cricket, the 3rd T20I between England and India at Bristol on Sunday
- Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Chelmsford City, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix
- Tennis, the middle weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, on the USPGA the Greenbriar Classic and on the European Tour the Irish Open.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
MustardBet are back!
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The Old Newton Cup at Haydock by Neil Channing
Probably the best Club rugby Championship in the world.
Leinster, the defending champions, have been drawn against Wasps, Bath and Toulouse in next season’s Heineken Champions Cup. The pool contains teams who have won 11 European titles between them.
Saracens, the winners for the two previous seasons have been handed a kinder draw with Glasgow Warriors, Lyon and Cardiff Blues the current Challenge Cup champions in Pool Three.
Newcastle face a difficult task on their return to Europe’s top competition with Toulon, the three-times winners, Vern Cotter’s Montpellier and Edinburgh in Pool Five.
In Pool Two Exeter and Gloucester, another English side making a return to the competition, have been paired together along with the Top 14 champions Castres and Munster.
In Pool Four Leicester have been drawn against last season’s runners-up Racing 92 for the third straight season with the Pro14 duo Ulster and Scarlets joining them.
Last season’s competition was notable for the domination of the Irish provinces, which had it roots in the decision to centrally contract the national squad players and quickly develop academy systems a few years ago. The result, particularly in the season after a Lions tour was that the core Irish players were able to play significantly less rugby than particularly their French and English counterparts but the fruits of that academy system is now reaching first team and national level via the likes of Stockdale and Larmour.
This season of course there is no Lins tour to come back from, so players are likely o enter the competition more rested than they were. English sides though are still hamstrung by the fractious relationship between Premiership Rugby clubs and the RFU, the absence of central contracts and consequent demands on players
The French sides might be a fruitful place to look from a betting perspective this year. In reaching the final Racing92 cast of the shackles of a rather mundane Top 14 style and played vibrant attacking rugby. Last month the French side won the U20 World Cup in brilliant style and the national side showed a lot of flair in the All Blacks series. It might be a bit early to back them as a trend, but changes are afoot in French rugby, and the influx of new talent might accelerate the process by which all six Champions Cup sides are a tough “out” for the other sides, which hasn’t always been the case.
This season Newcastle’s St James’ Park hosts the final for the first time.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,610 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.15% (correct at 27/06/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,561 All bets have an ROI +3.43%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,561 a 1014% increase
(correct at 27/06/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th June - 1st July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The first matches in the Last 16 of the World Cup.
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar over the jumps at Perth.
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Tennis, the ATP Antalya Cup in Turkey.
- Golf, on the USPGA the National on the European Tour the French Open.
Starting Monday: Wimbledon 2018 (2nd-15th July)
The Main draws were today. Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
MustardBet are back!
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Free tip
The 2018 Vitality T20 Blast
The UK Domestic T20 cricket tournament begins next Wednesday, with four teams progressing from each of the North and South Groups onto quarter finals and then finals day at Edgbaston now in mid-September.
As ever this is a competitive heat. The importance of the competition to county coffers means most invest in “name” overseas pros and in a typical English summer variance in weather and individual results is high
The head of the market is as follows:
Notts 6/1
Surrey 7/1
Hampshire 8/1
Sussex 10/1
Yorkshire 10/1
Birmingham 10/1
I have increasingly been of the opinion that what separates T20 sides in what are quite short competitions is the quality of bowling attacks. This was evident in the 2018 IPL for example when Sunrisers Hyderabad won a number of games with the best bowling attack in the competition that their batting performance gave them no right to win, and it is from that angle that I wanted to attack an ante-post selection for this competition
Sussed have recruited the prodigious teenage Afghan leg spinner Rashid Khan for this year. Since his T20 debut he has taken more wickets than anyone (165). Of the bowlers to have taken 50+ wickets in that time no one has a lower economy rate than him (5.97) & only ten bowlers have a lower strike rate than him (15.6). In the 2018 IPL for Sunrisers he took 21 wickets at 21 and a sub 20 ball strike rate. He has now taken 38 IPL wickets in two years. It’s his first appearance in this competition, and with quality lower than the IPL, he should make hay.
Sussex’s attack also features the very quick Jofra Archer who is currently qualifying for England and too 15 IPL wickets in 10 matches this year having been picked up after being one of the stars of the Big Bash League for Hobart. Add in the T20 specialist Tymal Mills and Chris Jordan too and Sussex look to have one of the best attacks going.
Meanwhile one of the best T20 blasters Luke Wright is captain at the top of the order and in the middle order Laurie Evans is one of the best young T20 batsmen. With the attack they have got, the top six just need to keep Sussex in games. In coach Jason Gillespie they have one of the game’s most innovative thinkers too.
Normally I like to look at disregarded outsiders for the T20 Blast, looking for value to offset the variance of the format and competition but this year I am taking the 10-1 Coral still offer about Sussex while it lasts.
10 points Sussex to win the 2018 Vitality T20 Blast 10/1 Coral 9/1 SkyBet
Top of the Pops
England are the number one ranked ODI side in world cricket, fresh off a 5-0 series victory over an admittedly weakened Australia side, and this is a year out from a home World Cup next summer.
This of course is a far cry from England’s ignominious performance at the last World Cup, where a group stage exit led to major changes in coaching and team selection, followed by strategy.
So what are England doing differently now compared to then?
England’s batsmen played 46% attacking strokes at that World Cup, and that figure was still under 50% in the recent ODI series but England are regarded as much more aggressive now and the difference has come in the execution. When attacking at the World Cup, England missed or edged the ball 20% of the time, with a batting average of 28. In this victorious ODI series, England only edged or missed 12% of the time and averaged 37.6 when doing so. Of course it helps that ODIs are often played on feather-bed pitches and the use of two white balls in an innings now undoubtedly assists so format changes have allied with a more successful attacking approach.
Last week Sachin Tendulkar implied that the regulation change had taken the imbalance between bat and ball too far and said “Having two new balls in one day cricket is a perfect recipe for disaster as each ball is not given the time to get old enough to reverse. We haven’t seen reverse swing, an integral part of the death overs, for a long time”
There is also undoubtedly a resilience to England’s tail-order these days, and it is combined with an ability to counter-attack. The side is now packed with all-rounders, with virtually no tail. At the World Cup, England’s last five batsmen averaged 23, scoring at 7.9 runs per over. In the 5-0 victory over Australia this rose to an average of 39 and a scoring rate of 9.8rpo.
It is a mark of how far England have come that Adil Rashid was dropped for the opening match of the 2017 Champions Trophy in July but is now the leading ODI wicket-taker since the last World Cup, and has been both a pivotal figure in the revival of the white-ball team. Wrist-spin is typically a high-risk option. At the World Cup, England’s spinners had an economy of 5.2rpo, and took a wicket every 54 deliveries. This series, the economy has lifted to 5.5rpo, but they now take a wicket every 39 deliveries.
On top of this success for the spinners, England have found something with the white-ball they’ve lacked in the Test arena, raw pace. Across their six matches at the 2015 World Cup, England’s seam bowlers sent down 188 deliveries over 140kph, a figure that has increased by nearly 50% across each series since.
Aside from the technical issues there is a new strategic flexibility to England’s ODI team, which is allowing them to win matches in different circumstances. Between the last two World Cups, in 2011 and 2015, England won 49% of games they played. Coincidentally, they also won 49% of matches when they lost the toss.
However, since the dismal World Cup campaign in 2015, England win 66% of matches they play, a significant upswing which can be partly attributed to them now winning 71% of matches when they lose the toss. That is the largest winning percentage for toss-losing teams in the world, since the last World Cup, and this adaptability is key.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,610 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.15% (correct at 27/06/18)
Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,561 All bets have an ROI +3.43%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,561 a 1014% increase
(correct at 27/06/2018)
