Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter, Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, World Cup Qualifying fixtures
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup final in Dubai
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including England v Australia, Scotland v South Africa and Ireland v New Zealand
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Golf, the RSM Classic on the USPGA and the DP World Tour Championship on the European Tour
Free tip
Autumn Internationals England v Australia 5.30pm Saturday
Last weekend Scotland edged a tight contest to claim a third consecutive victory over Australia and continue their winning start to the Autumn Nations Series. As a 15-13 implies defences were on top and Australia’s attack missed their absent Japanese-club contingent that had galvanised them in the rugby championship a month or two ago.
England meanwhile warmed up for more serious contests this Autumn with a convincing win over Tonga last weekend. The selections in these games and the upcoming Six Nations are Eddie Jones’ final revamps ahead of run to 2023 World cup with much anticipation over the introduction of Marcus Smith at fly half to accompany the introduction of a number of young backs alongside the return of Owen Farrell.
England have beaten Australia on the last seven occasions they have played but this should be a relatively close contest. Even allowing for their disappointment last weekend and some injuries inthe front row it is surprising to see Australia 9/2 outright and +12 points on the handicap here. England are going to have some growing pains, Australia will be stronger for last weekend
10 points Australia +13 points at Evens generally
Aa-rong
The NFL this week punished Green Bay Packers Quarterback and League MVP Aaron Rodgers not for lying about his COVID vaccine status but for breaking COVID protocols over Halloween. Rodgers might not be willing to receive the COVID vaccine, but he revealed this week that he’s injected himself with just about every conspiracy theory surrounding it.
Rodgers missed last Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs after being forced to sit out a mandatory 10-days for testing positive for COVID-19 but not being vaccinated against it. This kicked off a week that cratered his public persona following various anti-Vaxx media interviews and the league is looking into fining both Rodgers and asking the Packers to fine him as well over the Halloween party if it’s determined that COVID protocols were broken.
Under the jointly negotiated NFL-NFLPA COVID-19 protocols, which Rodgers strongly criticized saying “some of the rules are not based in science at all”, Rodgers was fined by the league for appearing mask-less at press conferences and attending a Halloween party with many teammates. The Packers themselves were fined $300,000 for violations of the NFL and NFL Players Association protocols, while Rodgers and Allen Lazard were each fined $14,650.
Rodgers has been adamant that the league knew about his vaccination status from the start, meaning the league was allowing Rodgers to make in-person appearances with the press despite unvaccinated players around the league being forced to use Zoom meetings for health and safety reasons.
If the league punishes Rodgers and the Packers now, the optics will once again make it appear as though the league only took action once things it already knew about became public knowledge. This would come on the heels of a similar situation in which the league knew about racist emails that were shared between Jon Gruden and current league executives but didn’t do anything until the emails were leaked to the public.
If they fine Rodgers, they will be going to war with one of it’s biggest stars who seems unafraid to kamikaze his career for the self-satisfaction of feeling like he won the argument.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton, on the flat at Doncaster and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup matches include England v South Africa
- Rugby Union, the start of the Autumn Internationals including Wales v South Africa
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA and the Dubai Championship on the European Tour
- Tennis, The ATP Finals in Milan
Free tip
Autumn Internationals Scotland v Australia 2.15pm Sunday
Scotland began their Autumn season beating Tonga 60-14 scoring ten tries. They now get Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg, Sam Skinner, Duhan van der Merwe, Rory Sutherland, Huw Jones, Chris Harris and Adam Hastings back and all could find themselves in the starting XV against an Australian side ranked world ranked number three who come here off the back of a much improved performance in the Rugby Championship. Under new coach Dave Rennie after three successive losses against New Zealand their last four results saw them record two wins against South Africa then two against Argentina.
Their squad, and in particular their backline, is packed with young players on an upward trajectory, although their preparations for this tour have been hampered by Japan-based players Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi (both central to the improvement in form in late summer after their re-introduction to the side) and Sean McMahon withdrawing from the group and choosing club over country
Australia are 3 to 4 point favourites for the game and whilst I expect it to be an extremely competitive contest Australia should have too much for Scotland and I would expect them to win by up to two scores. I am "dutching" the two most likely, in my opinion, margins.
10 points Australia to win by 6-10 points at 5/1 with Betfred and William Hill
10 points Australia to win by 11-15 points at 8/1 with Betfred and William Hill
Autumn Internationals
The Autumn Rugby Internationals began last weekend. New Zealand remain a good side, South Africa have just beaten them in the Rugby Championship and with France improving and Australia reunited with some of their better overseas-based players the home unions face a tall order to get many positive results.
England after this weekend’s warm up against Tonga play South Africa and Australia this Autumn, both teams having been together through the last few months for Rugby Championship
The fifth-place finish in last season’s Six Nations Championship and the subsequent Lions tour of South Africa made conditions ripe for a major squad overhaul and Eddie Jones in the selection for these games has picked players such as Marcus Smith, Adam Radwan, Max Malins, Freddie Steward and some other promising young backs who have impressed in the Premiership with a view to accelerating their progress to the 2023 World Cup squad. Meanwhile Saracens trio Mako, Billy Vunipola, Jamie George along with Leicester Tigers fly-half George Ford were left out though Ford was subsequently reinstated because of an injury to Luke Cowan-Dickie.
There is more than enough time to blend together a new team with a fresh style of play and in many ways this is when Jones comes into his own, when the clock is ticking. Short term results may not be good, but the pay-off may come in 2023 and beyond.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th-31st October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby, on the flat at Newmarket and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester United
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup matches include Australia v England
- Rugby Union, the start of the Autumn Internationals including Wales v New Zealand
- Golf, the Championship at Mayakoba on the USPGA and the Portugal Masters on the European Tour
- Tennis, The ATP Paris Masters
Free tip
T20 World Cup Australia v England Saturday Dubai 3pm
England threw a spanner in the works of this column by bowling the West Indies out for 55 in their first match, six wickets falling to spin and then beat Bangladesh comfortably to be in a very strong position to reach the semi-finals
Australia came into the tournament relatively unfancied by their standards after losing five successive T20 series against England, India, New Zealand, West Indies and Bangladesh. Of the 21 T20s they played during this period Australia won just six matches
In their first game of this tournament Australia looked great in the field restricting South Africa to 119, a line-up of Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins would be a strength of any team in the competition but the batting looked shaky. This was consistent with failing to chase down three sub-135 targets against Bangladesh in August.
On Thursday against Sri Lanka at the same venue the pitch spun more than the earlier games, the leg-spinner Zampa was economical and took a couple of wickets and Sri Lanka were restricted to 154 and Australia chased this down comfortably with Finch and Warner returning to form.
Outright odds for this game are England 8/13 Australia 5/4. The winners are likely to top the group into the semi-finals.
I wanted to look at the top Australia bowler market for this match.
In the past the seamer Josh Hazlewood has been something of a bit part player for the Chennai Super Kings in the IPL making just three appearances in 20220 and not travelling to India for the first half of the 2021 tournament. However he returned for the UAE leg just before this competition and took 11 wickets in 9 innings at an economy rate of 8.37. Against South Africa he took 2-19, both wickets in the first powerplay.
Hazlewood is consistent and steady and likely to be a useful Australian counterpoint to an English batting line up that goes hard in the opening powerplay.
10 points Josh Hazlewood Top Australian bowler at 7/2 with Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 100/30 William Hill and Betfred
A club World Cup?
The best club rugby sides from the northern and southern hemispheres are set to meet in competitive action for the first time in 2024 after details for the inaugural Club World Cup were revealed. The eight quarter-finalists from that year’s Heineken Champions Cup would qualify for the new competition which would be held every four years. The European competition in that season would effectively end at the last-eight stage and not be completed, as the aim is to create a new global tournament while not adding to the workload of players in an already stretched rugby calendar.
It raises the prospect for players and supporters of teams such as Saracens and Exeter Chiefs of facing Super Rugby sides from New Zealand and Australia. Teams from South Africa will be included in the eight qualifying from the Heineken Cup, as by then they will be eligible to play in European competition. South Africa’s four best club sides the Bulls, Sharks, Stormers and Lions have joined the new 16 team United Rugby Championship for this season.
The total number of teams taking part is not yet clear. No decision on the venue has been made, though it is likely that the 2024 tournament will be played in the northern hemisphere. The organisers maintain that it won’t mean extra rugby onto already crowded player schedules and it has to be in place of an existing tournament.
Meanwhile World Rugby is in talks with unions and clubs on how the future of the game will look based around the idea of a global calendar. Commercial, broadcasting and sponsorship details are yet to be confirmed but there is a rival proposal for a new, shorter-format tournament made up of eight new franchise teams, crucially though the current intention would be to schedule this in periods currently allocated for players to rest from existing club and international competitions.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup continues
- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
- Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA
- Tennis, The ATP Erste Bank and St Petersburg Opens
Free tip
England v West Indies T20 World Cup, Saturday 3pm in Dubai
The opening game in the tournament for both sides in Group 1 and in a format with only two qualifiers from each group going straight into semi-finals, and this group also containing Australia, both teams will be looking for a fast start.
England are tournament second favourites, West Indies the 2016 champions (in India) and third favourites for the competition and both have similar DNA. The sides are full of big hitters, with an attacking ethos, both have world class finishes and on the bowling front both are stronger in seam attacks than spin.
In the Middle East adaptability is going to be key, the tournament comes just after the second half of the 2021 IPL and pitches might be slow, low and tired as the tournament progresses. That said unlike the Sharjah strip, the Dubai pitch shouldl be an excellent wicket to bat on. Throughout the IPL 2021’s 2nd leg in UAE, the nature of Dubai strip remained a sporting one and it also offers genuine bounce. The par score on this surface will be anything above 170. In the recent IPL final CSK batted first and won scoring 192.
On an individual game basis T20 is a high variance betting format and in what should be a contest between two well matched sides I’d tend to side with the underdog for value. Here for England we can of course pick out the positives (a stacked batting line up, lots of bowling all-rounders, strong recent T20 record) but the West Indies have similar attributes and in Dwayne Bravo a potential match-winner in death bowling as we saw recently for CSK and the team has vast experience too. For example Kieron Pollard has won 15 major T20 titles, Bravo 14!
Match odds see England best priced 8/11 and West Indies 11/10 and over 2.2 on the exchange. I would expect both sides to make it through this group, but the West Indies at odds-against are better value in this match
15 points West Indies to win at 2.26 Betfair Exchange, 2.2 Matchbook and 6/5 in fixed odds markets
Two Divisions
The LV Insurance County Championship will return to a two-division structure in 2022. There will be 10 teams in Division One and eight in Division Two, as per the initial plan for the 2020 campaign before it was scuppered by the coronavirus pandemic.
The counties will play in the divisions for which they qualified at the end of the 2019 season, meaning that Lancashire, Northamptonshire and Gloucestershire – who were promoted – will take their place in Division One. Nottinghamshire – the single relegated team two years ago – will be in Division Two despite finishing third in the 2021 standings.
With a switch back to the previous structure after two Covid-affected seasons, promotion and relegation also return; two teams will come up and down at the end of the summer after 14 games each.
One of the major benefits of 2021 conference system’s first stage was the quality of cricket on show, with counties unworried by the threat of relegation. But after the divisional split following the tenth round of matches, the limitations of the structure were laid bare, with only six teams truly playing for something tangible.
Other options were discussed that might have produced two divisions better reflective of the current state of play rather than that in September 2019, but it was ultimately decided that, while both 2020 and 2021 seasons had been designed as one-off campaigns to help the game through Covid times, 2019 was the last time that counties had known the exact consequences of what they were playing for, and so those promotions and relegations should be carried forward.
2022 LV Insurance County Championship - Division One
Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Kent, Lancashire, Northamptonshire, Somerset, Surrey, Warwickshire, Yorkshire
2022 LV Insurance County Championship - Division Two
Durham, Derbyshire, Glamorgan, Leicestershire, Middlesex, Nottinghamshire, Sussex, Worcestershire
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick and York. Over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Leicester City v Manchester United
- Cricket, The start of the T20 World Cup
- Golf, the ZOZO Championship on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Mallorca Open
- Tennis, The ATP European Open in Antwerp and the VTB Kremlin Cup
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby Sale v Harlequins Friday 7.45pm
Harlequins finished fourth in the regular season last year then in the play-offs proceeded to beat Bristol from 28-0 down and Exeter 40-38 in two high scoring encounters to win the 2020-21 title. So far this season they have won all three of their games against Newcastle, Worcester and then putting 50 points on Bristol in a thrilling performance last week.
Nick Evans is a very attack minded coach, and his approach harnesses the young talent in the side notably the “next big thing” in English rugby Marcus Smith and he and the other developing players are complemented by veterans such as Danny Care and Joe Marler. A really fun team to watch, capable of scoring out of nothing.
Sale also finished in the top four of the regular season league table last year, and so far this season have had mixed fortunes beat Bath, then drawing with London Irish, losing at home to Exeter and then last weekend away to Gloucester, missing a last kick conversion to win.
Currently Sale have been fielding a relatively inexperienced side as the majority of their marquee players (Curry, De Jager, De Klerk…) have been on downtime after the Lions Tour or Playing in the rugby Championship. Curry and Manu Tuilagi are back this weekend.
Harlequins are in such form that I expect them to win narrowly despite Sale’s returning players this Friday night in Manchester
10 points Harlequins to win by 1-12 points at 15/8 with BetfairSportsbook, 9/5 PaddyPower and 7/4 Betfred
Home and Away
Home-field advantage has been waning in in the NFL. Road teams have a winning record this season, going 42-38 through the first five weeks of the season.
Last year, for the first time in NFL history, home teams had a losing record: Of the 256 games in the 2020 regular season, home teams won 127, lost 128, and one was tied. And in 2019, home teams went just 132-123-1, which was the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule.
Sportsbooks were among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field advantage was worth about three points on the spread. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.
Whilst the absence of crowds during a COVID season was a factor last season, NFL teams seem to be getting better at silent counts to negate crowd noise, and better at finding ways to travel comfortably and achieve peak performance whether they’re at home or on the road. In today’s NFL, there’s no real difference to playing at home.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
