Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 24th-25th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York
- The Olympics in Tokyo
- Rugby Union, the first test South Africa v the British Lions in Cape Town
- Cricket, the new Hundred Competition continues
- Golf, the ISPS Handa World Invitational.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Atlanta and Kitzbuehel
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) - Tue 27th July - Sat 31st July 2021 by Neil Channing
Coverage of every race over the five days of Glorious Goodwood, cost £150 here
Free tip
South Africa v British Lions 5pm Saturday, Cape Town
The first Test in this three-test series this Saturday. South Africa were convincing world champions in 2019. This of course is an unusual series, with South Africa hard hit by COVID which has hugely affected the home team’s preparations for the series. The national side has had one game in twenty months, three weeks ago, with parts of the squad having two matches under the “South Africa A” banner in the last fortnight.
So we may consider that this could be the Lions best chance in the series as we ponder how undercooked the first choice XV will be for this game.
How long can those players last? Can their replacements step in seamlessly to cover this weakness? Lack of preparation time makes a departure from their traditional physical game unlikely for the Springboks who were unmatched in terms of forward power and defense in 2018-19 with the x-factor of Cheslin Kolbe’s finishing on the wing to add.
This is a strong Lions squad in most areas, lacking some class in midfield, but should be underdogs for this game even without a crowd which has been seen across sports to reduce home advantage. Even if the Lions gain parity in scrum and line out it will be a big ask to win, although its likely to be close, anything beyond a one score winning margin would be a surprise.
I am genuinely surprised to see the Lions odds on favourites. South Africa are very backable at odds against or for a bit more juice by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfred, for example.
20 points South Africa to beat the Lions in the first test at 21/20 Bet365 and William Hill
Olympians
The Olympic Games in Japan starts this weekend and will be held without spectators at venues in and around the capital after a spike in COVID infections. A state of emergency in Tokyo will run throughout the Games.
Venues in Tokyo and other nearby areas will not be allowed to hold events with fans during the Games but stadiums in the regions of Fukushima, Miyagi and Shizuoka will be permitted to have spectators up to 50% of capacity and up to 10,000 people.
There were widespread opposition to the Games in Japan, with calls for them to be postponed or cancelled and the organisers have experienced setbacks, including massive budget overruns..
A new wave of infections began in April, but overall the country has had relatively low case numbers and a death toll of around 15,000. 2,180 daily new cases were reported in the country on average last week. 920 of those were in Tokyo, up from 714 last week and its highest since 1,010 on 13 May.
Japan's vaccination rollout has been slow, and just over 15% of the country is fully vaccinated. There is rising concern over the threat of the Delta variant. Entry into Japan is currently prohibited for natrionals of 159 countries.
Public spectator sites have been scrapped and companies have been hesitant about advertising related to the Olympics because of the widespread opposition to them.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon and Redcar and over the jumps at Cartmel and Market Rasen
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the British Lions v the Stormers
- Golf, the Open at Royal St George’s.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Croatia, Switzerland and Los Cabos
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) - Tue 27th July - Sat 31st July 2021 by Neil Channing
Coverage of every race over the five days of Glorious Goodwood, cost £150 at Tips (bettingemporium.com)
Free tip
Lancashire v Yorkshire, Vitality Blast 5pm Saturday Old Trafford
This is the last weekend of the group stages. At the time of writing in the North Group Yorkshire, without a Quarter Final appearance in four years, are currently second with 7 wins from 12 games and on course for a home knockout tie. Lancashire are fourth with five wins and a tie and progress depends on their results against Durham on Friday night and then this, their final group game. Yorkshire were due to finish their group campaign at Derbyshire on Sunday, alreadypostponed due to COVID outbreak's in the Derbyshire camp..
Yorkshire’s Harry Brook with 463 runs in 11 innings is the leading scorer in competition, including scoring 91* when Yorkshire beat Lancashire earlier in the group. Now 22 years old, a former England Under-19 captain he has over 1,000 T20 format runs in under 40 games played.
Yorkshire’s international contingent are absent again on England T20 duty, notably Bairstow, and Brook looks a decent bet in the top Yorkshire batsman market
10 points Harry Brook Top Yorkshire batsman at 7/2 with Bet365 (More firms to follow through the day)
Headaches
As we approach 19th July and the removal of COVID restrictions with society opening up more and the Delta variant on the rise through the country, international cricket could be more impacted than it was last summer. While domestic cricket was severely curtailed last year, the entire international programme was completed, which saved the game from severe financial problems.
There is a crammed programme to come, with Pakistan (three ODIs and three T20s taking place currently) followed by the showpiece series involving five Tests against India, worth about £100 million to the English game. There would be severe financial repercussions if that series was affected in any way. At the moment, there is no indication from Pakistan or India that their involvement is at risk, although with India’s players enjoying some freedom before training for the series that starts on August 4 begins, their players will be just as vulnerable as anyone else in this country.
All England players have been given their first vaccines and some have been double-vaccinated. After August 16, those who have had both doses of the vaccine will not be required to isolate if deemed a close contact of someone who tests positive. Given the chaos that ensued last week, sport will breathe a sigh of relief when that comes to pass, although cricket faces a worrying few weeks before then. It is going to take a lot of luck to avoid one of The Hundred teams not getting close-contacted out of the competition with track-and-trace staying as it is until mid August i.e. the majority of the tournament. Or one of the Test squads being affected- the first two Tests are before the 16th August
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The Euro2020 Final on Sunday
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York
- Cricket, ODI between England and Pakistan at Lords
- Rugby Union, the British Lions v the Bulls
- Golf, Next week the Open at Royal St George’s.
- Tennis, Wimbledon Finals weekend
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) - Tue 27th July - Sat 31st July 2021 by Neil Channing
Coverage of every race over the five days of Glorious Goodwood, cost £150 HERE
Free tip
England v Pakistan ODI at Lords, Saturday
England entered this ODI series which began on Thursday having thrashed Sri Lanka in a one-sided mismatch but then having to completely change their squad after seven positive COVID tests in the team
The new squad features nine uncapped players.
Ben Stokes returns to captain the squad having been absent after sustaining a broken finger when playing in the IPL earlier this year and has the bulk of the experience in the squad.
The uncapped contingent in ODIs comprises Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Lewis Gregory, Will Jacks, Tom Helm, Dan Lawrence, David Payne, Phil Salt and John Simpson, although Crawley, Gregory and Lawrence have represented England in other formats.
From a betting point of view an 18 man squad introduces a lot of uncertainty for team selection in each game. Here we have the first ODI in Cardiff played on Thursday to go on and of course the England team/COVID news took Pakistan to favouritism for the first game and the series
The batting order for the first game was as follows
Salt
Malan
Z Crawley
Stokes
Vince
The player who appeals is Dawid Malan. Malan has played fifteen tests and three ODIs including one 50 in the shorter format but is becoming established in the T20 side having played all three games against Sri Lanka in June. He is knocking at the door for Test selection again in England’s underperforming top order ahead of the India series and the winter Ashes to come.
We can make a case for the likes of Lawrence and Vince in this make-shift team, but Malan is equally a high quality player, opening the batting. Unfortunately for this bet he top scored in England's facile win in the first ODI, 68 not out, which has shortened the price a notch with Bet365 the first firm to price up for Saturday.
12 points Dawid Malan Top England batsman 2nd ODI at 11/4 with Bet365 (more firms to price through the day)
Against All Odds
It is now 19 months since the Springboks appeared together and they have may only have one game against Georgia before the Lions series after the COVID related postponement of this week’s second match. However South Africa were strong favourites for this series even before the injury to the Lions captain, Alun Wyn Jones.
The Lions have a scratch team on a shortened tour with only two weeks until the first Test playing a team that has very little player turnover. They have their own problems with the Bulls match this weekend postponed with positive COVID tests among the Bulls squad this week. From the Springboks squad that won the World Cup the only key player who has moved on is loose-head prop, Tendai Mtawarira. Furthermore the squad has some new blood and a number of the contingent playing at Sale Sharks are also available
Some of the younger players introduced in the Japan World Cup have improved. Lukhanyo Am notably will play alongside Damien de Allende in midfield and here South Africa look to have a clear advantage against the Lions.
South Africa are famously tough up front, from a well stocked front row to the giant second row combination of De Jager and Eben Etzebeth.
The Lions have strengths in the pack that may ensure equality but might lack depth and class in midfield. It is hard to discern an attacking machine that will be penetrative and Warren Gatland has a short time to work out the identity of his playmaker.
Owen Farrell has experience and character but had a subdued Six Nations. Finn Russell has the ability to change matches, but will he be relied upon to play tight physical Test match encounters? directions. Dan Biggar is a possibility at fly half, a very steady player but not a game changer
This is a strong South African team, World Champions who may be a bit under-cooked early in the series but it would be a brave man who doesn’t expect them to win the series and quite possibly 3-0 too. Which is why it is odd to see the Lions odds on to win the Test Series (South Africa 5/4!!) and South Africa 6/1 to win it 3-0
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 3rd-4th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Euro2020 continues, the Quarter finals
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Cricket, 3rd ODI between England and Sri Lanka in Bristol
- Rugby Union, the British Lions v the Gauteng Lions
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Golf, On the USPGA The John Deere Open at TPC Deere Run and the Scottish Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, Wimbledon continues
Free tip (It's coming home edition)
England v Ukraine Euro2020 Quarter Final by Stattobets
A flavour of the write ups in the Stattobets column for subscribers below. 'Stattobets Dave' - With great results so far in 2021, Monthly subscription (join any time and cancel any time) £50 English, Scottish and Euro Football plus Tennis and Darts from here
Here is his analysis
Backdrop
Be careful what you wish for they say. We’ve all wanted it to “come home” for 25 years now, but some dissenters seem to want to have their cake and eat it, complaining about the lack of adventure in the England set ups. It’s certainly true that our strengths lay in our attacking players, but setting up to steam-roller opponents in international football rarely sees you go all the way and Southgate has been pragmatic in his approach so far with four clean sheets in a row as reward for that. Looking back, in 2004 (Greece), 2008 (Spain) and 2012 (Spain again) the Champions each kept three successive knock-out shut-outs, while in 2016 – when the tournament expanded – Portugal managed three clean sheets in four games.
The draw is absolutely opening up for England, but a 0-0 with Scotland, and 1-0 victories over Czech Republic and Croatia didn’t set the world alight in the group stage. We are through the biggest test now of course having seen off Germany, but if anyone thinks Ukraine and either Denmark or Czech Republic will just roll over they will be found out quickly. We’ve managed just 27 shots so far in the tournament and 10 on-target efforts – both lows among the eight quarter finalists.
The Ukraine for their part qualified from a pretty easy group on paper, but three points was a poor return and it’s worth nothing that despite finishing above them in the group, both Austria and Holland are now out. They’ve been marginally more industrious than England (36 shots and 17 on-target) but 15 and 8 of those respectively came against North Macedonia, while they were really awful against Austria. It’s at the back Ukraine are weakest, and England will definitely get chances to unlock and open the game up.
The other thing worth noting here is the fans. The FA have handed back their allocation of tickets, meaning England fans are likely to be relatively low numbers. I'm sure some will travel, especially ex-pats, and some will get tickets, but were not likely to see a wall of England fans packing out the stadium.
Team News
Ukraine will be without Artem Besedin after a nasty challenge saw him come off second best against Sweden in extra time, but he was only considered a back-up to Andriy Yarmolenko and Roman Yaremchuk anyway. It’s likely Oleksander Zubkov will return to the line-up for the first time since going off injured against the Dutch in the opener.
For England, Mason Mount is pretty likely to return to the line-up. The Germany match came too soon for him, but he’s been training with the squad all week and is expected to come back in for Saka. One wonders if Henderson might get the nod to join either Declan Rice or Kalvin Phillips in midfield given both are on a yellow and would miss the semi-final if booked.
Summary and Bets
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England continue their patient pragmatic approach, looking to get ahead and then stick with what they have, but the fly in the ointment could be game state, which could see an increasing desperate Ukraine open up at both ends.
Nevertheless, England are rarely a team to go gung-ho. Over their 17 matches this season, 11 have ended up under 2.5 goals, while you can probably take the San Marino game out of that sample. With England the side likely to be in control for the majority of the game I’m happy to take the 5/6.
I’m also going to suggest that Raheem Sterling is over-priced in the UEFA Star Man (Man of the Match market). He’s already scored three of England’s four goals, so is bound to be the subject of much conversation, has the pace to cause problems for a shaky Ukraine defence, and always excites when on the ball. With England such a short price to win the match, and most of the awards going to attacking players so far this tournament, the man who already has won two awards looks value for a hat-trick.
Recommendations
10pts Under 2.5 Goals at 1.83 or 1.84 (Betting Exchanges)
6pts Raheem Sterling to win UEFA Star Man at 6/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair SB)
Summer sales
“There is no time to waste and there is a lot of work to do, we have to be ruthless” says Mikel Arteta at Arsenal. A playing squad overhaul is expected at Tottenham under a new manager, Liverpool are looking to revamp their squad and at Chelsea it is reported that the club wants to sell 13 unwanted players still under contract none of whom have been selected under Tuchel so far. These are stories repeated across the Premier League.
These overhauls are going to be a difficult task. Income among the 20 Premier League clubs fell by about £600m last season due to the effects of pandemic. The loss of match-day revenue has had a large impact on clubs at all levels and the financial climate threatens to bring this particular area of the transfer market to a standstill.
There will be big deals at the top end of the market of course but these are unlikely to be funded by selling unwanted players and easing the burden on the wage bill.
So many of the players who are surplus to requirements this summer are those who were in the same position a year ago. In many cases that meant an inability to secure permanent transfers and settling for season-long loans, often while continuing to pay a large portion of the player’s wages.
Unhelpfully the Chinese Super League's appetite for players from European league has been suppressed by a 100% transfer tax for overseas players.
The measure was introduced to try and encourage youth development in China and help meet the state's ambitious aim of winning the World Cup by 2050. The Chinese FA also announced that clubs must start matches with the same number of Chinese players under the age of 23 as they do foreign players. Kicking-off a summer rebuild via China no longer looks a viable option.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 26th-27th June
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Euro2020 continues, the Round of 16 begins
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newmarket, Windsor and York and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
- Cricket, T20I between England and Sri Lanka in Southampton and the Vitality T20 Blast continues
- Rugby Union, the Lions kick off the 2021 tour v Japan and the Gallagher Premiership final, Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins
- Formula One, the Styrian Grand Prix in Austria
- Golf, On the USPGA The Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit and the Irish Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, Wimbledon starts on Monday
Free tip
Vitality T20 Blast Cricket
Middlesex v Glamorgan 2.30pm Sunday Radlett
Our tip was rained off last week and we have a change to go again on Sunday
Moving into the second half of the group games Middlesex have won 1 of their 6 games not including Friday night’s game at the Oval, Glamorgan have only won 2 of their first 8 games, two of those eight games being weather abandonments.
My interest in the game is in the Glamorgan top Batsman market. Marnus Labuschagne is a top class batsman across all formats, in a team that doesn’t have great batting strength Colin Ingram the South African aside. Labuschagne first signed for Glamorgan for the first part of the 2019 county season where he would churn out 1114 runs in 10 matches. Introduced to the Australian Test sideet in the same year he now has 1885 runs at an average of 60 and in 2019 eclipsed Smith Smith as the leading Test run-scorer in the world, and locked in the No. 3 spot in the midst of a prolific home summer that brought him four centuries in five matches against Pakistan and New Zealand including a double century at the SCG.
He has been in prolific form in this year’s competition:
93 runs off 56 ball in the first game
59 runs off 47 balls in the second
74 runs off 51 in third
22 runs off 19 balls, still second top scorer
13 off 20 first match v Middlesex
33 off 21 in the defeat to Gloucestershire
He should give us a great run for our money. Prices are not yet available, and time is getting on. I am putting an indicated price down
12 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Glamorgan batsman v Middlesex at 2/1+ (all being well)
In the Firing Line
After the recent series defeat by New Zealand, with India the next opponent in August things might not get much better for the England cricket team, who five months away from the Ashes series in Australia are under pressure especially Head Coach Chris Silverwood who is now in sole charge of selection now.
Some things have been out of Silverwood’s control, notably injuries to Jofra Archer and Ben Stokes but there is clearly culpability too in a year in which England have lost four of the eight Tests they have played, including four of the past five.
First amongst these is selection, such as leaving out Jack Leach/a spinner at Edgbaston after a strong series performance in India but in the bigger picture the “rest and rotation” policy denies the side continuity and England rarely pick their best available side, always with an eye on an upcoming tournament or the Ashes.
Silverwood bought into rest and rotation because he wants to expand the pool of players he can pick for the Ashes this winter, but the reverse might be true if players turn their back on Test cricket for franchise sides in shorter formats.
For this summer Silverwood has requested flat pitches where his team can work on a method of building big totals and the bowlers are challenged to find ways of taking wickets rather than relying on helpful conditions, ahead of the Ashes. This has removed at least the early season home advantage and is a risk if losses continue.
If this all helps England win the Ashes in Australia, then he will be vindicated. Writing today, that looks unlikely
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
