Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 22nd-23rd August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .A full weekend Premier and football league programme including Manchester United v Newcastle and Everton v Manchester City
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina and European Tour: Made in Denmark at Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort in Denmark.
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday including the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, and at Chester, Sandown and Bath. Chelmsford on the all-weather and National hunt meetings at Newton Abbot and Perth
- Cricket, Days three and four of the final Ashes test of the Summer at the Oval.
-Tennis, ATP and WTA Western & Southern Opens in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- Rugby Union, France v England and Italy v Scotland in world cup warm-up matches
Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast
The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined last week by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"
You can listen to it HERE
Free Tip of the Week :
Formula 1 returns this weekend with the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps.
Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari ended Mercedes’ seven-race winning streak by winning last time in Hungary ahead of Daniil Kyvat and Daniel Ricciardo. It was the first ever podium for Kyvat, the first podium of the year for Red Bull and the first double podium for Red Bull since September, 2014.
Lewis Hamilton is the clear favorite in this race at 1/2 ahead of Nico Rosberg at 9/4 and Sebastian Vettel at 141.
Spa-Francorchamps is known and respected as one of the most challenging circuits in the world. As well as being one of the fastest circuits on the modern calendar, the Ardennes climate often throws a spanner in the works in the form of sudden downpours.
It is a power track, at Spa medium speed corners are connected by a series of flat-out sections, two of which are on significant inclines. This tilts the competitive balance away from the packages able to produce the kind of down-force levels that would excel in Hungary, and towards the slippery, aero-efficient set-ups which are likely to be seen again in even more extreme form at Monza in two weeks' time.
For the four teams with Mercedes engines - the Mercedes works team, Williams, Force India and Lotus - it is set fair for them to have an advantage on the long straights particularly after Eau Rouge and the first DRS zone for over-taking .
There are other variables though, the possibility of changeable weather the event and the further implementation of stricter limitations on driver aids and coaching with the changes having a "a particular emphasis on race starts" are the major two issues.
F1's governing body has become concerned that drivers receive too much coaching and information from their teams in order to perfect their starts.
"These measures will bring back the driver in full control of the car, enhancing races' excitement and unpredictability," said a governing body statement.
We have already seen an impact in recent race starts of the changes taking place, particularly Mercedes struggling to hook their cars up well. Lewis Hamilton has started the last three races from the front of the grid, yet his getaways have got progressively worse. In Austria he finished lap one in second place, in Britain he was third, and in Hungary he had fallen to fourth, and that could be a trend that will continue at Spa
So the combination of more uncertain variables means unpredictability and less certain betting outcomes as we saw in Hungary. Once the Mercedes, which can be expected to occupy the front row of the grid here too, are embroiled in having to overtake cars rather than just lead from the front for the whole race, the risks of taking short odds on their victory is higher.
So with the outright market efficiently priced and with more variables than normal for this race, I turned to the sub-markets.
Valtteri Bottas finished on the podium in Canada in June, a result he would have repeated at Silverstone two races later had the team strategy allowed him past his team mate when the team were 1-2 early on in the race. Spa should be a real fit for the quick Williams as the team try to improve past Ferrari as Mercedes' closest challengers.The power-hungry nature of this track and cooler weather suggests that Williams will be ahead of Ferrari here.
Bottas finished third here last season and odds of 11/2 look fair value for another podium finish
5 points Valtteri Bottas Belgian Grand Prix 11/2 Coral
Early season, Early problems
The first few weeks of a long domestic football season can provide some unique and difficult challenges for bettors to overcome if they aren’t careful. Unexpected results abound. West Ham win at Arsenal, then lose at home to Leicester the week after, to give but one example. Here’s a look at four of the biggest problems, and some solutions that can help you overcome them and avoid any serious and costly issues.
Problem: Insufficient current data.
A first port of call typically involves looking back at how teams have been performing this year – in general and in particular circumstances – to help you predict how the will perform in the upcoming situation. When a team hasn’t played many games you obviously can’t rely on what you have seen so far. Bettors heavily dependent on these stats can find themselves lost in the opening weeks before a reliable data set has been established.
Solutions: If you are careful you can look at the preseason for information. The challenge of the preseason is that you can’t take anything that happened at face value – star players often don’t play the whole game and teams often don’t have winning as a primary goal of the preseason games. Despite that, you can often interpret what you see in the preseason and draw valuable insights from it that will help you in the regular season until better data arrives. You can also look at coaching trends. Some coaches have developed a pattern of early success in a season, while others typically take a while to get their team on the right page and rolling.
Problem: Teams are unpredictable early on.
In any sport every year you will see a few really good teams that look terrible out of the gate, and a few seemingly lousy teams that can’t lose at the start. Over the course of a season it’s usually reasonably easy to know which teams are good and which ones aren’t, but in the first couple of weeks it seems like anything can happen.
Solutions: The best and most obvious thing to do here is to bet less until you feel you have a handle on things. Avoiding and limiting losses is at least as important as winning. In the same spirit, it makes great sense to be more patient early on, and to only make bets when you are particularly confident of your edge. As the season goes along and you get a better sense of how teams are looking then you might be willing to bet a slim edge, but early on you need to give yourself the widest margin of error possible.
Problem: Line movement is unpredictable.
Later in the season astute bettors can usually make a pretty good guess about how the lines are likely to move. Early on, though, it’s not so easy. Added unpredictability leads to increased uncertainty. It can be harder to time your bets for maximum value early in the season, and you can often find a line with value unexpectedly moving against you.
Solutions: Later in the season you can be choosy, but earlier in the season you sometimes can’t afford to. Whereas you might later wait on a line to see if it improves, early in the season you might want to bet the line you like it if it is reasonably acceptable where it is. It’s better to take an acceptable line now than be forced to take a worse one later on, or to b forced to pass on a game you wanted to bet.
Problem: Excitement and impatience lead to bad choices.
If you have anxiously been awaiting the start of a particular season for a long time, then you are probably very anxious to start betting on it once you can’t. That can lead to people making bets that aren’t totally ideal, and forcing situations that they normally wouldn’t be attracted to. That can be very costly.
Solutions: Early in the season, the first thing you need to do is take a deep breath and relax. You have to remember that sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. There is no reason at any point to make a bet unless you are sure of your edge and confident in your insight – regardless of how badly you want to make a bet. Making bets on sports you love is a lot of fun, but losing those bets isn’t much fun. By being patient you can cut down on those losses.
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 15th-16th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .Aston Villa host Manchester United in the first televised Friday night Premier League game at the beginning of a full weekend Premier and football league programme
- Golf, the final major of the season, the USPGA at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin. See Neil's analysis here
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon and Lingfield Park
- Cricket, the last of the Nat West T20 Blast Quarter finals on Saturday, Kent against Lancashire at Canterbury
- Tennis, the WTA Rogers Cup in Toronto and the ATP Coupe Rogers in Montreal
- Rugby Union, New Zealand against Australia in the second Bledisloe Cup game and England v France and Ireland v Scotland in Rugby World Cup warm up games
Free Tip of the Week :
This week has seen the Quarter Finals of the Nat West T20 Blast and on Wednesday night this column's 25-1 each way ante-post tip Northants made finals day on 29th August by beating Sussex thanks in large part to David Willey's 100 off 40 balls and 3-27 opening the bowling.
The final quarter-final takes place on Saturday afternoon at 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Kent play Lancashire at Canterbury. Kent topped the South group with 19 points, Lancashire finished fourth in the North group.
Kent’s appearance at this stage has been coming for a couple of years. With money tight and no overseas players in their ranks, it has been all about the local lads who have come through the ranks, primarily batsmen like England U19 opener Daniel Bell-Drummond, England ODI wicket-keeper batsman Sam Billings and hard-hitting finisher Alex Blake. Most importantly of all though Sam Northeast has done a brilliant job as captain and was the second highest run-scorer in the group stages of the tournament with 627 runs, batting at three with a hundred and four fifties. This was nearly 300 runs ahead of the next Kent batsman
Lancashire are the more experienced team and are full of quality. Ashwell Prince is a steady source of runs, skipper Steven Croft is one of the most under-rated all-rounders on the circuit and in James Faulkner they have one of the best death bowlers in world cricket.
This could be a very close game and Lancashire are 6/5 underdogs to Kent at 4/5. If anything i like Lancashire here because their bowling has more consistency and depth than Kent. Of their five bowlers who have played 10 or more games in this year's competition four have economy rates of 7.15 runs per over or under with three of the five recording strike rates of 15 or under. For Kent's four bowlers with double digit games none are under 7.66 runs per over economy or under 15 on strike rate.
As ever though in a one off game in cricket's shortest and most random format outright value is pretty marginal. For this week's tip we look at the top Kent batsman market. Sam Northeast should be favourite on weight of runs alone of course but I would be concerned about early wickets.
It's always a bit fraught recommending batsmen who bat 5 or lower in a T20 because of course there is the risk that they won't face the balls required to make an impact if the top order fires. It may be worth taking a chance here though.
Alex Blake is a hitter. In the competition so far this season he has 301 runs off 174 balls with three fifties. The 10-1 on offer with BetVictor and a few other places is quite tempting because, much like David Willey for Northants, he's a match winner irrespective of pitch conditions and can score extremely quickly. If there are early wickets, as i suspect, the 10-1 is a very live price indeed. Coincidentally, these two sides met in the 50 over competition last week. Chasing 258 and with Kent struggling when he came in, Blake scored 89 off 56 balls with 7 sixes. That gives an indication of his potential.
4 points Alex Blake Top Kent batsman T20 Quarter final v Lancashire 10-1 BetVictor
Betting on the NFL
Betting on the NFL is extremely popular, but not everyone is aware of how to bet it or how many different types of bets are available to make. For the uninitiated, all of this information can be a bit overwhelming and even a little confusing. Over the course of the next month Betting Emporium's analysis will include ante-post and NFL specials for the 2015 season followed by Neil's weekly column during the season.
What you might see includes:
Point Spreads
Point spreads (also known as lines, spreads or sides) are the most common type of NFL bet. Every game has a favourite and an underdog of a certain amount of points. A negative number (-) will always represent the favourite, while the positive (+) number shows which team is the underdog
Let’s look at an example
Miami Dolphins +7.5
New England Patriots -7.5
Teams are always listed with the home team on the bottom and the visiting team on top. In the example above, the Patriots are favoured by 7.5 points at home against the visiting Miami Dolphins, who are 7.5-point road underdogs. If you were to bet on the spread for the Patriots, they would need to win the game by 8 points or more. For a winning bet on the Dolphins, they would need to win the game outright or lose by 7 points or less. Point spreads will be listed as whole numbers (-3, +4, etc.) or in half-point increments (e.g. -7.5, +10.5).
Typically you will be betting these lines at 10/11 each of two to allow for the bookmaker's juice or "vig".
You will hear talk of "Important numbers" in NFL betting and these are based off NFL scoring with a touchdown and extra point worth 7 points and a field goal 3 points. From 1920-2014 just under 25% of NFL games ended in 3, 7 or 10 point winning margins
It has commonly been suggested that home field advantage in the NFL is worth approximately three points to bookmakers. There are so many teams that are evenly matched, which leads to three points being made the most commonly-used spread.
Three points may seem like a good number, but when it moves up or down a half-point, then things get interesting. A half-point on either side of the spectrum can create a lot of issues regarding NFL games. If a favourite opens at 2.5, bettors could jump on that, not needing to factor into the equation the possibility of a field goal either way. If the line moves to 3.5, the favourite doesn't look so good; it is the underdog that looks much better.
Money Lines
If you are more interested in simply betting who you think will win the game outright, you need the Money line, for example:
Seattle Seahawks 1/3
San Francisco 49ers 9/4
Keep in mind that you are simply picking the winner of the game, regardless of what the point spread is. Without a point spread the most likely outcome is that the favourite will win. With betting the money line on the underdog, your risk is somewhat diminished because of the potential return, but the likelihood of that team winning the game outright is not as likely.
Totals (sometimes called “over/unders”)
Are second only to spread betting in terms of popularity. You simply bet if you think the final score will be more (over) or less (under) than that number. A total would look something like this:
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Over 45.5
Under 45.5
If you think the two teams will combine to score 46 or more points bet over, and bet under for 45 or less. Again, usually a 10/11 each of two market to allow for Vig and analysis will factor in playing conditions (inside or outside, grass or articificual surface), weather, team offenses and defenses etc
Props
Prop bets (short for proposition bets) are normally bets on how a certain player will perform or what will happen at a certain point in a game. A prop can basically be anything a book decides to put out. You might bet on whether Tom Brady has more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers this week, or whether the coin flip in the Super Bowl will be heads or tails. Both of those would be considered prop bets.
Common weekly props will be under/over passing, rushing and receiving yards in each NFL game for offensive players. Ante post player and team props for the season are popular to include divisional finishing positions, yes/no on teams making the play offs as well as sub-categories for players such as rookie of the year
Season win totals
Betting season win totals means betting over or under a certain amount of wins for a given team. For example, odds makers may set the season win total for New England at 12. If you think the Pats will win more than 12 games this season, you would bet the over, less than 12 games, you would be the under. Typically these bets are only available before the season starts, but occasionally you will find updated win totals around the half point of the season.
half times and quarters
You can also bet on the point spread or total for the first half, second half, or individual quarters of a game at many sportsbooks. These bets work the same as full game spread and total bets, but are adjusted for a smaller sample of the game.
Teasers
Teasers are a form of accumulator in which you “buy” additional points on a point spread or total. For example, if the Ravens are listed at -10 and the Chargers are listed at -14, you could bet a two-team 7-point teaser that would give you the Ravens -3 and Chargers -7 at more aggressive juice You must win every bet in your teaser for it to be a winning bet. In the NFL you can typically bet 6, 7 and 10 point teasers on just about any number of teams.
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The Ashes
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 8th-9th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the English football season with a full schedule of Premier League and football league games.
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock Park, Newmarket, Redcar, Ayr and Lingfield Park
- Cricket, Days 3 and (possibly) 4 of the Fourth Ashes Test at Trent Bridge
- Tennis, ATP Austrian Open and ATP Citi Open in Washington. WTA Citi Open in Washington and WTA Bank of the West Classic in Stanford, California
- Golf, World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone in Ohio.
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Rugby Championship with unbeaten Australia and New Zealand meeting in Sydney.
Free Tip of the Week :
Saturday sees the conclusion of the Rugby Championship, the annual Southern Hemisphere competition this year truncated because of the impending World Cup. The Bledisloe Cup game at the ANZ Stadium in Sydney between Australia and New Zealand will decide the winner of the tournament with both teams going into the game having beaten both South Africa and Argentina.
Both teams had very narrow victories over South Africa. South Africa were 20-7 up on Australia in Brisbane and Australia scored on the last play of the game to win 24-20 and deny this column a win. The week after the All Blacks trailed in Johannesburg with ten minutes to go, a late try securing a 27-20 win. Both teams beat Argentina comfortably.
So recent form lines are similar and Australia are at home.
The World Number One All Blacks have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003 and have not lost to the Wallabies since August 2011 in Brisbane. The Wallabies are currently enduring a 10-match winless streak but have got close recently, despite being in the doldrums under recent coaches. In August 2014 they drew 12-12 in a wet game at the ANZ Stadium and in October they lost 28-29 at Brisbane to a match winning conversion as the last play of the game.
The All Blacks are not unbeatable. They are ahead of the rest and have been for a decade, but several teams within that pack of chasers have either overturned the All Blacks on rare occasions (England in 2012, South Africa last year) or come within a whisker of doing so. As well as Australia, Ireland for example have come close. The All Blacks though are renowed for winning games in tight situations and trusting that game plans will eventually bring the result home.
For this game they are selecting as close to their first choice team as they can after some rotation earlier in the tournament. Dan Carter is back at fly half, Sonny Bill Williams returns at centre. Deservedly they are 1/2 outright for this game, Australia 15/8 and six point underdogs on the handicap.
Australia though are a more competitive unit than they were as recently as six months ago. For several years their weakness in the scrum has been a real problem and negated their competitiveness in the back row (where here Pocock/Hooper will go toe to toe with Richie McCaw at the breakdown) and forced their very dangerous backs to operate off the back foot.
The lack of a platform left them exposed against the top few teams. Under Michael Chieka though they have put a lot of work into their physicality. Over the years they've always been extremely dangerous with ball in hand, and that added physicality they've brought has been notable, and probably gives them more of an all-round game now. The real test they are building to is the World Cup group with England and Wales
With Australia more competitive I expect a close game here. I wouldn't go as far as predicting an upset but it should be within two scores and the "Winning margin" market has the All Blacks winning by 1-12 points at 13/8 with Ladbrokes and 6/4 generally. New Zealand winning by 13+ is no more than 2/1 and I would consider much less likely.
8 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points in the Rugby Championship game versus Australia 13/8 generally
The game kicks off 11.05am Saturday (Sky Sports 3)
Football, Moneyball?
Almost exactly a decade ago, the American writer Michael Lewis published a book called "Moneyball". It told the story of Billy Beane, the general manager of an unfashionable baseball team, the Oakland A’s, who was using new statistics to evaluate baseball players and strategies.
Moneyball changed baseball and almost all ball games from basketball to cricket but it also affected worlds beyond sport. Ken Mehlman, Republican campaign manager in the US presidential election of 2004, instructed his staff to read it, because he realised that it wasn’t just a sports book. It was also a perfect case study of how crunching numbers can give you an edge.
Football was always the most hidebound sport and it held out longest against the numbers revolution. In the last few years though, and in betting in football in the decade before that, the use of data has infiltrated football. .In football, people always did what they did because they had always done it that way. Clubs were historically run by autocratic managers who had left school at 16 to become players and didn’t hold with book-learning.
In the mid-1990s, the spread of computers began to change this. Companies such as Opta and Prozone began collecting stats on football matches. Suddenly, clubs knew how many passes each player had completed, how many tackles he had made and how many kilometres he had run.
All 20 clubs in the Premier League – and many in the lower divisions – now employ data analysts to make sense of this information. Manchester City has 11 of them. In 2012, Liverpool caused a stir by creating a new position, director of research, for Ian Graham, who has a PhD in theoretical physics. The analysts are involved in pre-match preparation and post-game debriefs; they help to identify transfer targets and devise strategies for nurturing young players through the ranks
Data isn’t everything. It is one tool among many. It gives you an edge and, since you could employ perhaps 30 statisticians for the £1.5m that the average player in the Premier League earns, it’s an edge teams can afford. . They believe that a football match can be translated into numbers and – much as a hedge-fund trader does with the stock market – those figures can be crunched and scanned for patterns.
Some in the industry now predict that the biggest innovations will come from poorer clubs, football’s equivalents of the Oakland A’s: Rich clubs such as Chelsea can succeed simply by buying great players. Analytics will help you win, but so will money
It is here where the betting industry and the football industry coincide. Successful long term football bettors like Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham own clubs and especially in the case of Brentford, analytics is informing player recruitment and contract negotiations.
Last season for example Mr Benham made it clear he wanted a more 'Moneyball' approach run through a director of football and Brentford issued a statement on the departure of their manager saying the club would introduce a new recruitment structure "using a mixture of traditional scouting and other tools including mathematical modelling". Benham is also the majority shareholder in Midtjylland a Danish club that won their Superliga in 2014-15. Chairman Rasmus Ankersen told Reuters in an interview,
"We do quite a few things differently but the two main things are the statistical analysis and the way we approach talent development,"
The new numbers-based regime was implemented when Benham bought a majority shareholding in Midtjylland in July 2014. The Danish club and Brentford, are run along similar lines and although Ankersen acknowledges the human element is important in terms of running the club, the stats are key.
"The data is not perfect but I think it's less imperfect than the human judgement. It's got to be a combination all the time," he added.
With a limited budget, analysis is particularly important when it comes to recruitment.
"We use the data to find undervalued players in undervalued markets and we also do a lot in terms of development”
Ankersen added that statistical analysis is used in almost every aspect of the team's preparations, from recruitment and training to what they do on the pitch and why.
"We have identified metrics that we know statistically work over time, it comes down to the number of dangerous situations we create and the number of dangerous situations we prevent the opponent from creating."
The relevant statistics are beginning to change from computational curiosities to player recruitment and then contract negotiation items much like WAR (Wins above replacement, a baseball statistic developed to sum up "a player's total contributions to their team") did after Moneyball.
Even in an era with ever bigger TV contracts allowing for ever more transfer market largesse, the ongoing transformation of the use of data within football clubs is a bigger factor than ever before in team composition and tactics and therefore strategy, and can inform our betting selections through the football leagues.
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The Ashes
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any timeSubscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 1st-2nd August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football The start of the domestic football season with the Community Sield between Chelsea and Arsenal and the first fixtures in the Scottish leagues.
- Racing, the final day of Glorious Goodwood the highlight of Saturday's racing with meetings also at Doncaster, Newmarket, Thirsk, Hamilton Park and Lingfield Park- Tennis, ATP events in Gstaad, Hamburg and Atlanta
- Golf, European Tour: Saltire Energy Paul Lawrie Matchplay in Aberdeen and USPGA Champions Tour: 3M Championship in Minnesota
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We are less than two months away from knowing who will be the next Labour party leader. The ballot closes on 10th September and the result is announced on 12th september.
For this election the electoral college used in 2010 was replaced by a pure one member one vote system. Candidates will be elected by members and registered and affiliated supporters, who will all receive a maximum of one vote and all votes will be weighted equally. Members of Labour-affiliated trade unions need to additionally register as Labour supporters in order to vote.
The vote, as in previous elections, will be held by the AV system. Until one candidate wins a majority the candidate with the fewest votes in each round is eliminated and his or her second preference votes distributed to other candidates.
The frontrunner in the Labour leadership race is Andy Burnham but the big story has been Jeremy Corbyn. Mr Corbyn, who initially struggled to find the 30 MP supporters required to feature on the ballot paper, is nearly odds-on favourite in a £1m+ matched market on Betfair having previously been as long as 100-1. He has been nominated by over 100 local Labour associations and has strong left-wing grass roots appeal and the backing of major unions including Unite and Unison.
Research by YouGov for The Times published ten days ago found that Corbyn led Burnham 43-26% on first preferences from the voter sample. Yvette Cooper was on 20% and Liz Kendall 11%.
In the YouGov sample, one-third have joined the leadership-electorate since this year’s general election; and 16% of respondents have signed up as members of affiliated trade unions or paid £3 to be registered as party supporters. These figures accord with media reports that Labour had 200,000 members before the election, and that the leadership-electorate is around 300,000, with 50,000 having joined as full members and a further 50,000 registered via the trade union or £3 route.
It is clear that the affiliated trade unionists who are being signed up for this election are helping Corbyn’s chances. among those who have the vote in the current contest because they have paid a £3 registration fee or signed up as a member of an affiliated trade union, Corbyn is well ahead, with 57% of first preferences and a 69-31% lead in the final round. What's more the voting register is open until 12th August.
Whilst it is not as clear cut as it was given the groundswell of anti-Blairite support for Corbyn from newer, younger and Union derived voters and the clear momentum the campaign has, the generally accepted view has been that if Corbyn can’t win a majority on the first count, he can’t win at all, because few who back Burnham, Yvette Cooper or Liz Kendall will give him their second preferences. Labour’s preferential voting system is an active handicap to his campaign, as he has a far smaller pool of second preferences to draw on than any other candidate. In nomination meetings, Corbyn gets a handful of second preferences, matching YouGov polling which shows only 20-25% of Burnham and Cooper supporters gave Corbyn their second vote; Kendall’s supporters seem overwhelmingly averse to Corbyn: he receives only 6% of her second preferences.
As long as Corbyn polls below 50% in the first round the issue of second preferences becomes vital in determining the final winner. Here Cooper scores well. She is a lot of people's second choice: Burnham supporters prefer her to Kendall, Kendall supporters prefer her to Burnham, and Corbyn’s supporters look to split evenly between Burnham and Cooper.
Cooper’s somewhat soporific campaign (the antithesis of Corbyn's conviction politics that is engaging the voting base so well, it seems) isn’t offending anyone and with the campaign having some weeks to run, we cannot be certain whether Burnham or Cooper will face Corbyn in the final round; and, if Corbyn’s and Burnham’s campaigns stumble, Cooper has a chance of eventual victory.
Taking prices on the exchange just as I publish this week's column we see the following
Corbyn 2.42
Burnham 3.05
Cooper 4.0
(Kendall 65)
The Burnham price has until recently been rock solid and firmly assumed that he will be in the run off in the final round and the Corbyn price has collapsed. Cooper's price was under-estimating her strengths in a second preference competition. Neil and I were gearing up to recommend a big bet until....
This week a new private poll leaked (caution required) once again showing Corbyn winning - but this time, Yvette Cooper, not Andy Burnham is the candidate who makes it to the final round. The Daily Mirror published the figures: Corbyn ahead with 42 per cent of the vote, Cooper in second with 22.6 per cent of the vote, Burnham in third with 20 per cent, and Liz Kendall in fourth with 14 per cent. Corbyn wins, but by a narrower margin than he does if Burnham makes it to the final round, 51-49 against 53-47 once second preferences are taken into account
For the first time Burnham's price began to lengthen as his position as favourite began to be questioned and the thought began to develop that Cooper might be the best candidate (from the centre of the party) to stop Corbyn. Cooper's price contracted from just under 4.8 to 3.4 and then back to the price recommended below.
Neil and I discussed the market and we were both agreed that the Cooper price still offers us something due to the AV characteristics of the election they are fighting, that hers is the price that is the value among the three realistic winners. The price is assuming Corbyn wins the first round and Burnham is the candidate who survives to face him in the final run-off. We'd agree that Corbyn looks like winning the first round, but consider Cooper just as likely as Burnham to win through to face him. It would then be very tight indeed.
Rumours and polling news are daily and the market is volatile. Would recommend patience on the recommended price, there will be chances around 4.0 or higher in the next fortnight
8 points Yvette Cooper next Labour leader at 4.0 on Betfair
This week a guest article. Danny Hart is a Betting Emporium subscriber, and wrote the following
Price sensitivity and how it may be affecting your win rate following tips.
When following tipsters, I feel that when facing inevitable price drops, people aren’t nearly as strict as they ought to be regarding price sensitivity. People in general develop their own “rule of thumb” for these kinds of situations, but I believe it’s a bit of a grey area that needs to be addressed.
Let’s take an example. A football tipster with a solid long term win rate of 5% (similar to Brodders) tips a team to win at 1.91 (10/11), but the line unfortunately has shortened to 1.8 (4/5) when we come to place our bet. I’d bet most of the time you would be putting this bet on anyway, or at least be betting it with a reduced stake. But should you be placing this bet at all? Let’s delve deeper.
To work this out mathematically, one would have to equate the tipsters’ specific ROI%, and run a simulation which shows the difference in our expected returns from the bet in both scenarios. Here can we calculate our new hypothetical ROI% for this particular bet, and then we automatically know if the bet is still +EV or not. In the instance of this particular example, running a hypothetical ROI% simulation (assuming a standard medium confidence 12 point bet), makes our expected ROI% drop from 5% to -1%! So not only does this bet hold far less value to us, it’s likely to be actually losing us money in the long run.
All this may sound a little complicated, but to make things easier I’ve derived the equation which holds for all scenarios, and made this into an easy-to-use tool openable in Excel. An additional feature I’ve added is a “bet confidence” variable which allows you to input the confidence of the bet. This has been done by using the base ROI% as a medium bet and adjusting accordingly. I’ve increased tipster ROI% by 50% for large bets and reduced by 50% for small bets, this obviously an estimate of sorts, but it adds extra scope to the tool which makes things a little more realistic.
Go ahead and have a play with the tool, it's applicable on all sports/markets and you may even be surprised at some of the figures it throws out. Just remember it is a "model" and in reality all models do have their draw-backs and accuracy issues. In this instance the least it can do is to help us understand the mathematics of price sensitivity, and hopefully plug any leaks we may have been letting slip by unnoticed.
Thanks very much for reading; The download link for the tool is
http://www.filedropper.com/adjustedroicalculator
(if you have any questions about what Danny has said, or even have suggestions/improvements feel free to drop Danny an email via support@bettingemporium.com. Joe will pass them on)
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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 25th-26th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix at the Hungaroring
- Cycling, the final weekend of the 2015 Tour de France taking in stages 20, Alpe D'Huez on Saturday and 21 on Sunday to the Champs-Elysees
- Racing, Saturday meetings at Ascot (including the King George and Queen Elizabeth Damond stakes featuring the Derby and Eclipse winner Golden Horn), Newcastle, Newmarket, York, Lingfield Park and Salisbury
- Cricket, the final NatWest T20 Blast group games and the start of the Royal London One Day Cup
- Tennis, ATP Sweden, Croatia and Colombia Opens and WTA Istanbul Cup
- Golf, European Tour: Omega European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre GC in Switzerland. USPGA Tour: RBC Canadian Open in Ontario and European Senior Tour: The Senior Open Championship at Sunningdale.
- Rugby Union, South Africa v New Zealand and Argentina v Australia in the Southern Hemisphere's Rugby Championship
Free Tip of the Week :
Saturday sees the start of the Royal London 50 over Cup, the third English domestic competition of the season. The eighteen counties are divided (random draw) into two groups of nine, and each team plays the other eight in their group once. The top four in each group go through to the knock-out stages and then through to the Lords final in September.
The English domestic schedule sees T20 games played weekly until the end of August with County Championship games ongoing throughout. The Royal London cup is played in a block starting on Saturday but there are still the final stages of the T20 and 5-6 County Championship games to come for each team. With each county operating within a salary cap, and games coming thick and fast, squads are stretched. What we have seen in the 50 over competition starting in the second half of the season in previous years is that teams in contention in the 4 day competition typically rest players, rotate to play fringe players and be less competitive as a result. This is very much the third of the domestic competitions. Winning a county Championship is a key prize, reaching T20 finals day another. Then comes the 50 over competition, a scheduling after-thought and third priority for many counties..
None of the last five winners of the one day cup (this season is the second as a 50 over competition, previously 40 overs) have finished in the top four of the County Championship. Two of the last five winners were in the second division. Last year's winners Durham did not make the T20 quarters, either.
Yet the market prices up an event off form in the longer form of the game and performances in prior seasons. Neither of which are particularly relevant. Yorkshire, Durham, Warwickshire and Middlesex are in contention in Division One of the County championship and Yorkshire look likely to defend their title despite many Egland call-ups. Yet they are installed as 7/1 favourites for the One-Day cup, a competition that they cannot prioritise.
In division two Lancashire and Surrey are attempting to be promoted, and Surrey in particular look too short as 10/1 third favourites.
Instead there are two unfashionable sides at big prices I like the look of who happen to be drawn in different groups in this competition. The market seems to have taken no notice of the upturn in fortunes at both counties as young talent has emerged and both are available at 25-1.
Kent are in the second division of the championship and in Bell-Drummond, Northeast, Billings and Blake have a lot of young big hitting batting talent. There is one downside though, which is that a lot of big totals are going to be compiled in this competition under the new regulations used in the World Cup earlier this year and Kent lack some bowling firepower, but its still a big price for an emerging one day team.
My other thought, Worcestershire are in division one and are a very versatile side. They are led by the best county batsman you've never heard of Daryl Mitchell, have hitters in Oliver and Whiteley augmented by New Zealand's Colin Munro, an under-rated county seam attack and Saeed Ajmal too. Whilst Ajmal is not quite threat he was before he had to remodel his action, he's still going to be a handful on dry pitches in August.
5 points each way each (1/2 odds, 1,2)
Kent to win the Royal London One Day Cup at 22-1 Sportingbet (20-1 generally)
Worcestershire to win the Royal London One Day Cup 25-1 Sportingbet, Coral, William Hill
Getting an Edge
In betting the margin between making a profit or not is variable depending on who you bet with and what price you take. Maximising your margin, taking best prices and finding edges is crucial to winning.
One way you can get that edge, and this is in an era where edges are reducing, is finding markets where you know more than the oddsmaker.Bookmakers are experienced and have vast data at their disposal, but they have their weaknesses. Niche markets are a great example. Bookmakers often offer minor leagues or novelty markets as a marketing ploy to boost acquisition. Not because they are experts in those areas. Of course at Betting Emporium our collective knowledge of some football leagues is much enhanced by Brodders. His track record strong suggests that his knowledge of some of the more specialist (to the UK audience) football markets gives him that edge.
In other sports, from cricket batsman and bowler markets, to tennis set and tie-break betting, to NFL first touchdown scorers to top players from a particular region or age group in golf majors just to give some examples, Betting Emporium writers frequently look at sub-markets for value and an edge especially when the efficiency of mainstream markets is high. Find that edge in these sub-makrets and in the long term, it can add to your returns.
When searching for edges, public knowledge will already be built into the odds. Twitter has opened up new opportunities here, speeding up the dissemination of information. However, it’s equally accelerated the time it takes information to become widely known. It has also increased the amount of rumour, speculation and noise. Identifying reliable Twitter feeds that announce team formations, weather, pitch conditions, injury news or club finances can be helpful. You have to be quick though, gone are the days where pricing inefficiencies on genuine transformational information persist for long enough to take your time.
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The Ashes
Coverage of the 2015 Ashes series between England and Australia, FREE to read for registered users HERE
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.37% (1250 bets) (at 24th June 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£6650.30
May 2015 was Brodders' 3rd best month on record
May 2015 points bet 1468 profit 202.29 ROI +13.78%
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,733.10 (as at 24-06-15)
All bets have an ROI +3.22% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
