Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 9th-10th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, three weeks to go in the Premier League season, and the start of the Football League play-offs
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix is the start of the European slate of races through the summer
- Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Lingfield, Nottingham, Haydock and Thirsk and jumps at Hexham and Warwick
- Tennis, ATP and WTA Madrid Opens as the clay court season run up to the French Open continues
- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, Florida. European Tour: the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open
- Cricket, the New Zealand tour of England begins with a tour match against Somerset at Taunton
Free Tip of the Week
This week a look at the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona on Sunday, the first of the summer's European races. This is a significant race because after the fly-away races that start the season, teams bring their first major upgrades of the season to Spain at a track all the teams know well because they conduct two winter tests there.
Form so far this season has seen three Mercedes wins and Ferrari winning in Malaysia, and Ferrari closer than expected to Mercedes in engine performance and with some advantages in tyre wear. One thing we have already seen, which is affecting race strategy and outcomes, is that whereas Mercedes engined teams are obliged to spend parts of the race in a more ‘conservative’ race mode, the Ferraris can run at a single more aggressive mode for the whole race.
Eight out of the last 10 races have been won from pole position in Spain (and only one from outside the first row of the grid). It is a front-limited circuit, from a tyre perspective, and if it is hot tyre degradation will be quite high which will suit Ferrari more than Mercedes but the likelihood of Mercedes on pole due to single lap pace is high (in Friday's free practices the Mercedes is up to a second quicker than the Ferrari ) and with prices for the front end of the grid short (Hamilton 1/2 for both pole and the win, both markets 7/1 bar Mercedes) we have to look further down the field and into sub-markets for value
In Barcelona engine manufacturers and teams are introducing updates with some of their “engine token" allocations for the season. Renault in particular, with the highest token allocation to use, will have an updated engine looking at fixing some of the reliability issues it has experienced with Red Bull and to a far lower extent Toro Rosso. For Red Bull, Ricciardo's engine expired at the finish of the last race, his third engine failure of the season. Kvyat only has two ninthh places in four races. In Friday Ricciardo hardly ran in free practice one and then had yet another engine failure at the start of free practice two.
The Toro Rosso should have the benefit of the Renault upgrades too without so many of the reliability issues afflicting Red Bull. Verstappen and Sainz ran comfortably in the top ten during Friday practices and are bigger prices for top ten/points finishes than Ricciardo is to hit the top six. Both are around the 6/4 mark for a points finish, both cars are competitive with the midfield pack and 6/4 on either is too long here. I prefer Verstappen slightly of the two, a real natural talent that is going to do very well as he moves through the F1 ranks.
10 points Max Verstappen Points Finish 6/4 Ladbrokes
Favourite-Longshot bias
Most bettors tend to over-value outsiders and under -value favourites. Bookmakers are known to set prices on underdogs much lower than they realistically should be and still get business at the lower price. The average bettor wants a decent as possible return for his money and would rather bet on a 5-1 shot which is probably a 8-1 shot, than a 1-3 shot that really is a 1-3 shot. The stakes the average bettor will be using would also be such that betting at 1-3 does not give them a return which will interest them financially.
Pricing this way is a case of risk/reward for the bookmaker and they would rather have a lower liability in relation to what they can win. Reducing prices of outsiders means that when they do get hit by an outsider winning it will be covered by the many losers punters have had on these kinds of selections over the long term.
Odds on favourites are easier to price up and it’s on the bigger prices that the bookmakers feel they need to protect themselves against informed insiders and the general public exploiting new information. This is particularly important for the bookmaker in the horse racing markets.
With the introduction of Betfair and other exchanges where overrounds on popular markets are much smaller than with the bookmakers, the favourite longshot bias is perhaps not as prevalent as it once was. There is now much more competition in the markets generally and standout prices are often offered on outsiders to attract custom.
This is not to say that you couldn’t or can’t win backing longshots and if you are selective and can spot a price that is out of line you can still profit.
A 5-1 shot could realistically lose at least 30 times in a row and more especially if the real price is 8-1. You’re average bettor might place £10 on such a selection but can he/she survive even 20 losses in a row and still afford to bet £10 again? Many will not be able to and won’t believe that such a bad run is possible. At the same time they might be more cautious about having too much more than their usual stake on a 1.2 shot when in fact regularly backing at longer odds is likely to be much more costly.
So it’s not just the backing longer prices at poor value that’s a problem here it’s the amount the average bettor is prepared to stake on longer priced selections when they a) can’t really afford to withstand the losing streak b) wouldn’t have a similar proportioned stake on a short priced favourite. Even in a perfect market with no over round we still see a bias towards the underdog.
Value is not just about a good return on your money. It’s about finding a bet that wins more than the odds suggest and this is something a lot of regular bettors fail to recognise and evaluate.
We are of course only talking about pre-match bets here and in play betting on the exchanges shows an opposite of the bias with people overestimating the chances of the leader. When a favourite takes a winning position early on it reaffirms what the market already believed and people get greedy pushing the price unrealistically low.
So, if you are looking to back a longshot pre-event make sure you have good reason to and that this is enough to compensate for the poor value you would likely get on average on this type of selection. Make sure you get the best odds available or as close to as possible.
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley
All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May - 7th June 2015)
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63% (at 17th March 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Premier League 2014/15
Premier League Statistical Analysis 9th-10th May 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,463.40 (as at 28-04-15)
All bets have an ROI +3.26% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13.49%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 2nd-3rd May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, a Premier League and Football League programme including Chelsea a win away from the title at home to Crystal Palace
- Racing, the first two classics of the 2015 season the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket (see tip below) part of a programme including flat meetings at Goodwood, Thirsk and Doncaster and Uttoxeter and Hexham over the jumps
- Snooker, the final stages of the World Championship at the Crucible, Sheffield with the tournament concluding on Bank Holiday monday.
- Tennis, ATP BMW Open by in Munich and Millennium Estoril Open in Portugal.
- Golf, the World Golf Championships - Match Play at TPC Harding Park, San Francisco,
- Cricket, the third test of the England tour of the West Indies began in Barbados today.
- Rugby Union, the final of the European Champions Cup between Toulon and Clermont Auvergne at Twickenham
Free Tip of the Week
Today, Neil Channing looks at the first Classic of the 2015 flat season, the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket
" I'm not always a huge fan of the 2,000 guineas as a great betting heat. There is usually a large field, we can't always be sure which horses are going to stay, it's certainly possible for an unexposed outsider to "fluke" a win and the horses will usually split causing an unsatisfactory result.
Just when I thought I was out three firms have dragged me back in by offering four places, which is obviously tempting as it's not a handicap and I think you can get it down to the seven of the nineteen runners who are under 20/1.
Elm Park will probably be a non-runner as this ground is just too fast so betting with Paddy Power who have this one at 16/1 and won't charge a Rule 4 is the way forward.
I don't want to bet either O'Brien horses, I think his horses are not having a brilliant time and with Gleneagles I don't think he has all that much in hand.
Ivawood was dominant in the early stages of last season. I think a lot of that was due to him being a huge animal who just grew at a faster rate to the others who have now caught up.
Territories was pretty solid last year and he should run his race. Would be surprised really if he was out of the four and the high draw might be an advantage. All I really wanted to pull the trigger here was a slightly bigger price.
Intilaaq is really interesting. He won a maiden in breathtakingly impressive fashion on Greenham day at Newbury and has been supplemented into this. The inexperience puts me off an each-way bet, I tend to feel he could win easily or be tailed off and I like something with less volatility about it's possible finishing position when I'm making two bets.
Estidhkaar is the really solid one. I'd like him more if he had a higher draw but he has only ever run one bad race when he had a physical problem, he ran 2nd in the best trial when the two horses went clear, he goes on the ground and he's almost certain to stay. I can't really see him being out of the first four.
I'm having 12 Points each-way Estidhkaar at 15/2 1/4 1234 with Paddy Power and Bet365 (would rather take 7/1 1234 than 8/1 123).
Fixed odds In-Play betting.
In-Play betting is now used on near enough every sport and beyond, from Premier League football to reality TV. Not only can you bet on a wide range of sporting activities but you also have the option of betting on a mass amount of markets, which in theory, should enhance your chances of winning. Not only was the introduction of in-play betting a revelation to the punters but it was a godsend for the bookmakers themselves seeing substantial boosts in turnover.
Quantity over Quality
The vast majority of on-line bookmakers do feature on-line betting. However, only a select few do regular in-play markets for a wide variety of events. Some will stick to the main events like Football, and tennis whereas firms such as Bet365, especially via live streaming of once obscure events and sports pull out all the stops in their bid to lure in the punters with an array of in-play events at all times of the day.
Double Edged Sword
The ability to bet on an event while it's running has made for more entertainment and possibly more enjoyment but it also has attendant dangers especially if you're a so called 'Chaser'. The term chaser is used for a punter who chases gambling loses. With the availability of in-play markets now at a high, that now leads to more betting opportunities and possibly more methods of losing cash. The variety of in-play events can lead to punters betting on sports that they know very little or nothing at all about.
In-Play Tips
Discipline - Ensure you keep to a stable betting bank. If you lose, try not to chase your loses. A profitable bettor will pick his bets carefully and will be very selective.
Observation - It's pretty much pointless betting on an in-play event if you don't actually watch the event itself. The whole point of betting in-play is so you can view a sport and observe which team or player is on top and which you think might go on to win. Make sure you observe conditions, player(s)/team(s) performances, event statistics, the referee of umpires performance and attitude amongst other factors.
Avoid the unknown - Do not bet on anything you know very little about. Guessing an outcome will more then likely get you into trouble. Research is just as important when betting in-play as it is before an event kicks-off. Ensure you know the rules of the event as well as the teams or players involved.
Of course Betfair and Matchbook amongst other exchanges both feature in-play markets with the main advantage being the ability to place bets against other participants with low transaction and information costs, conspires to attract a heavier concentration of better informed, more financially focused bettors into the betting exchange marketplace. These more informed bettors typically seek out opportunities to identify misperceptions of probability, so as to benefit by removing or mitigating it, their presence in the betting market thus contributing towards,for example, the erosion of the favourite-longshot bias. Moreover, the forced removal of the once dominant risk averse bookmakers from the betting market, or at least the erosion of their monopoly position, serves to contribute to the development of near perfect 100% books on almost every sporting event.
Politics: The General Election
Coverage from Richard Prew and Neil Channing on the 2015 General Election markets. They are FREE to read for registered users and can be found HERE. This week, Plaid Cymru and UKIP, Seats and Markets and coming soon "Our Biggest Price Election Tip"
Analysis to date includes:
- the "Most Seats" Market
- Party seats markets
- the "Next Government" Market
- Individual Constituency markets
I am taking part in Matchbook's Experts Competition see HERE.
Matchbook have a great promotion of 0% (yes zero commission) on all General Election bets. You can also get a £25 RISK FREE bet by opening your account here
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley
All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May - 7th June 2015)
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£50 Sign Up Here |
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.
Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63% (at 17th March 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Premier League 2014/15
Premier League Statistical Analysis 2nd-3rd May 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,463.40 (as at 28-04-15)
All bets have an ROI +3.26% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13.49%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 25th-26th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, a Premier League and Football League programme including first versus second in the Premier League, Arsenal v Chelsea on Sunday.
- Racing, the bet365 Gold Cup, set to be AP McCoy's last race,is the highlight of the Sandown card (see tip below). Also flat meetings at Doncaster, Ripon, Haydock, Leicester and Wolverhampton
- Snooker, the middle weekend of the World Championship at the Crucible, Sheffield with second round matches ongoing.- Tennis, the new clay court season continues with the conclusion of the ATP Barcelona Open
- Golf, USPGA Tour: the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, TPC Louisiana and European Tour's Volvo China Open in Shanghai.
- Cricket, the conclusion of the second West Indies/England test in Grenada and ongoing IPL Group matches
Free Tip of the Week
Today, Neil Channing looks at the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday afternoon
"You have to love the Bet365 although I'm still someone who loves it as the Whitbread. It is always a very competitive race but it pays at least four places and you can rule a few out pretty easily. I'm not rushing to back any of the horses that ran well at Aintree n this race, the tracks are completely different, I think people underestimate how undulating and testing Sandown is. It's also really hard for a trainer to campaign a horse with the Grand National as the aim and then to have a totally different aim just a few weeks after. These marathon races do take a lot out of the horses and I would rather have a horse that has been targeted at this.
In all horse racing I would say the ground and the ability of each horse to act on it is possibly the most important factor. I think there are a bunch of horses in this one that have all their form on soft ground and would really prefer some give.
One horse who has lots of soft ground form is Le Reve trained by Lucy Wadham, who has always said this one will be better on something a bit faster. The stable have had a good season and she's given the horse a break with the aim of bringing it here for this race as Le Reve is way better going right handed which is why Cheltenham and Aintree were never on the cards. The horse has never been over this long distance before but at Kempton he was staying on well and it shouldn't be a problem.
Betting on your favourite team is difficult, because it skews perceptions. Studies have shown that objectivity in betting declines when the event evokes a clear emotional representation of an outcome. In the same way bettors also struggle to judge how likely it is that rare events happen and to price them up. Bets are not measured by their possible EV, as much as on sentiment and intuition.
One study in 1999 by Fox and Tversky asked US basketball fans of play-off teams to assess the individual chances of their teams in the final eight in the NBA Playoffs. As the focus was upon assessing the chances of just one team at a time, the aggregated probability for the outcomes was significantly over-weighted at 240% for the eight. When asked to just assess the chances of a winner from the Eastern Conference or the Western Conference probabilities were very close to 100%
A betting coup by two punters in 1991, who became known as the "Hole In One Gang" illustrates how the inability to visualise a rare event leads to underweighting of probability.
The pair, after analysing statistics, calculated that the odds of a hole-in-one occurring at a European Golf Tour event were roughly 11/8. They toured the country targeting independent bookmakers and requesting odds for a hole-in-one being recorded at televised golf tournaments. These small operations, lacking statistics and detailed knowledge but aware that hole in ones were very unusual, simply relied on an intuitive judgement and quotes ranged from 3/1 up to 100/1. It was a perfect example of underweighting a rare event.
One of the golden rules of gambling is that any bet should be assessed in terms of Expected Value Unfortunately, bettors tend to assign weightings to bet options based on a) what they would like to happen because of the result they want and/or b) how they feel intuitively about the probabilities, which can prove very costly.
Politics: The General Election
Coverage from Richard Prew and Neil Channing on the 2015 General Election markets. They are FREE to read for registered users and can be found HERE. This week, Individual Constituency markets
After a 16-1 winner, Nicola Sturgeon, in the first Leaders debate market current analysis includes:
- the "Most Seats" Market
- Party seats markets
- the "Next Government" Market
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley
All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point
|
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May - 7th June 2015)
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£50 Sign Up Here |
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.
Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63% (at 17th March 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Premier League 2014/15
Premier League Statistical Analysis 25th-26th April 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)
All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 18th-19th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, a Premier League and Football League programme together with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley.
- Racing, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr (see tip below) and flat meetings at Newbury, Nottingham, Thirsk and Wolverhampton
- Formula One, The Bahrain Grand Prix- Tennis, the ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters in Monte-Carlo concludes this weekend
- Golf, USPGA Tour: RBC Heritage at Hilton Head Island, South Carolina and European Tour: Shenzhen International in Shenzhen, China.
- Cricket, the second Test Match of England's Caribbean tour begins in Grenada on Tuesday.
- Rugby Union, the European Challenge cup semi-finals with Clermont-Avergne playing Saracens and Toulon against Leinster
Free Tip of the Week
This week Neil Channing looks at the Scottish Grand National at Ayr (3.45pm) tomorrow
" I suggested a few bets in last week's Grand National to our subscribers but we didn't manage to get even one in the frame this year. The most frustrating one was Al Co who I thought was really well handicapped but who only made it to the 1st fence where he came down. It must have been even more frustrating for trainer Peter Bowen who had targeted the National all year and who must have been looking forward to a big run.
One of the reasons I liked the horse so much was the fact that he won the Scottish National last year carrying just 5lbs less than he'll carry in the race this year. Another reason was that the stable always comes into form at this time of year. It may turn out to be a good thing for us. The horse galloped away loose for a while but didn't seem to exert himself too much and in this race we know he handles the track and the fences as he won easily enough last year. We also get Sean Bowen riding, which wasn't possible last week and his 3lbs claim is like stealing and more or less cancels out the extra weight.
A few firms offer 5 places which is way better in this 30-runner race than it was in the 39-runner National last week. I think the 14/1 is very fair value and I'd take 12/1 if it gets Pricewised which I think it may do.
I'm having 10 Points each-way Al Co at 14/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook."
A look back at the Grand National
AP McCoy's last Grand National, riding Shutthefrontdoor, with him promising to retire on the spot if he won was a major story surrounding last weekend's race. Expectations were for a flood of sentimental money from the general public, with talk in some quarters of the horse going off at 4-1 for the 39 runner race.
At lunchtime Shutthefrontdoor began to shorten from 9-1 and by 3.15pm, an hour before the race, prices shortened across the board, at one stage Hills, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred took their prices down to 6-1 whilst a) some firms held at 8-1 and b) the horse was weak on Betfair, backable at 10.0+
This was against a backdrop where the three of the firms mentioned above (on the day of the year where their potential acquisition of customers is greatest) only offered four places each-way in their shops compared to five places online. Maybe this tells us that new shop punters don't return, so there was no need to incentivise to attract them.
In the hour before the Grand National the 6-1 didn't hold and by 3.45pm it was 8-1 across the board and Rocky Creek briefly went favourite. There was no sign of an avalanche of money depressing the price, though Coral did say in the evening after the race that Shutthefrontdoor was the biggest loser in their book
After 4pm, with the race approaching it was still 8/1. Unsurprisnigly with a parade and 39 runners the race was late off. In the final minute before the race prices fell two whole points to 6/1, whilst drifting to 14.5 on BF, which was you could get on the off. The collapse in the price occurred without any corresponding move out in the rest of the field such that the race book went off with an over-round of 165%
It is fair to say that the Grand National is never a great "value" betting race. Witness the over-rounds in recent years:
2008 147%
2009 146%
2010 155%
2011 155%
2012 152%
2013 148%.
165% represented the highest figure in any year as far back as 2003.
My understanding is that if the shops want to shorten a horse (hedging part of an exposure, say) then their course reps can do so in hard cash on the rails. Here, why not just press the blue button on betfair at double figures?
Ladbrokes said after a recent national that 40% of their shop punters took the starting price. In 2010 the method of calculating Starting prices was change. SPs were determined by SP agents taking a sample of bookmakers' prices, and taking the lowest price among the best third available "to good money" at the off. Now the SP is the lowest price among the top 50 per cent.
This year the very late move in the SP clearly went beyond hedging (which at a late stage would hedge only a fraction of exposures for the big firms anyway) and into something far more questionable. The punters most affected, the once a year customers in the shops were
a) likely to be on Shutthefrontdoor
b) at some firms limited to four places anyway
c) least likely to realise that the SP fell two points in the last seconds before the race
d) in some cases still don't realise
e) and even some who do probably don't care
The SP system before the Grand National displayed the characteristics of a cartel price-fixing. It's not an open market as it should be and it is done to pay less winnings to punters. The SP system doesn't work as well as it once did because the on-course markets are now so weak.
To add insult to injury of a starting price system that here failed them, for those shop punters offered 4 places, Shutthefrontdoor finished 5th. At least we can't blame the bookmakers for that!
Politics: The General Election
Coverage from Richard Prew and Neil Channing on the 2015 General Election markets. They are FREE to read for registered users and can be found HERE
After a 16-1 winner, Nicola Sturgeon, in the first Leaders debate market current analysis includes:
- the "Most Seats" Market
- Party seats markets
- the "Next Government" Market
Next week: Individual Constituency markets
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.
Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63% (at 17th March 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Premier League 2014/15
Premier League Statistical Analysis 18th-19th April 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)
All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 11th-12th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, a full Premier League (including the Manchester Derby) and Football League programme
- Racing, The Grand National at Aintree the highlight of a schedule that includes Chepstow (NH) and flat meetings at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Newcastle
- Golf, The final two rounds of the US Masters at Augusta
- Formula One, The Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai- Tennis, the ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters begins on Sunday in Monaco.
- Cricket, the start of the County Championship and the English domestic season
Free Tip of the Week
This weekend sees the China Grand Prix in Shanghai, a fortnight after Vettel beat both Mercedes to the win in Malaysia, the first time Mercedes had been beaten in a straight fight since the advent of F1’s turbo regulations at the start of 2014. Whilst this column had a winner that weekend with Vettel in the "without Mercedes" market at 6/4, the win over the Mercedes at 16/1 was a major surprise as even though it was clear Ferrari were closing the pace gap to Mercedes everyone under-estimated the Ferrari’s ability to look after their tyres in the heat which meant they were able to make two stops compared to Mercedes’ three and win on strategy as well as pace.
The effect of Vettel's victory has been to change the shape of the betting markets for China. From 16/1 to win last time out, Vettel is now 7/1 and in the without Mercedes market in from 6/4 to 4/7.
Shanghai has one of the longest straights of the season, with long sweeping corners mixed in with tight corners meaning the circuit is "front limited", the opposite of Malaysia. Air temperatures are set to be over 10 degrees colder in Shanghai than was the case at Sepang too. A cooler track which takes less energy out of the tyres points to Mercedes in the ascendancy again.
Ferrari technical director James Allison is also not convinced his team will be able to repeat its Malaysian Grand Prix performance this weekend. After Malaysia, no doubt wanting to temper expectations, he spoke about the differences between the two races and what it meant for his cars and concluded
"I'm fairly sure that we will have our work cut out in China to do anything like as impressive a job as we have done here."
However the improvement Ferrari has made over the winter is undeniable and the extent of the step forward the team has made in both chassis and power unit was flagged up on race day in Melbourne, with Ferrari’s long run pace clear for all to see. In his previous position at Lotus, Allison produced cars with good mechanical grip (especially sharp front end which suits Raikkonen's style) along with low stress on the tyres. Mercedes still has more overall downforce. I think it’ll be a development race from now on between Mercedes optimising their car for hotter conditions and reduced tyre wear, and Ferrari optimising their car to work better at lower temperatures. I'm very happy that the season ante-post bet Vettel without Mercedes is in great shape
For China in the outright market Hamilton is 1/2 and Rosberg 7/2. As value against the top three Kimi Raikkonen is well worth a look. After hitting trouble in Australia he was shuffled down in mixed weather qualifying in Malaysia, starting 11th and finishing 4th. In practice in China he has shone. Whilst Lewis Hamilton topped the timesheet in both free practice sessions Raikkonen consistently ran times faster than Rosberg on medium tyres confirming a very competitive long run pace. Raikkonen’s best time was just under six tenths of a second faster than Vettel too.
We wouldn't expect Ferrari to out-qualify Mercedes (Allison after practice "Mercedes have a bit more horsepower & downforce") but they have a fighting chance of mixing it in the race and we're getting an each way price on Kimi. On Friday race-simulation average times on the soft tyre showed Mercedes up to 0.5 seconds a lap quicker than Ferrari, but with times dropping off as quickly as lap 11. The Ferrari was still setting decent times 15 laps in. On the medium tyre, which will be used for the bulk of the race, Mercedes and Ferrari times were almost identical, but Ferrari set them for seven laps longer. So, one could conclude again Mercedes have the pace advantage & Ferrari the upper-hand on tyre usage. What that could mean for race strategy creates the value below:
4 points each way Kimi Raikkonen 10-1 SkyBet (each way 1/3 1,2) (9/1 Sportingbet is next best)
(For those who can access it, 11/8 PaddyPower Raikkonen: Podium is a decent price and a lower variance bet, but i won't put bets up i can't bet myself)
England's Long cricket Summer
The last time England toured the West Indies in 2009, Peter Moores was coach, England were in a Kevin Pietersen crisis but the prevailing sentiment was that the team was only playing the West Indies and an easy win was likely. The captain and coach were both sacked just before the series and England lost the series. That summer England went on to beat the West Indies in the return series at home, clung onto a draw in the first Ashes test in Cardiff and went on to win the Ashes.
This year, you'll get long odds on a repeat. England begin a Caribbean test series with a Alistair Cook and Peter Moores under intense pressure. Paul Downton is no longer Managing Director of England Cricket as of this week, too. Change is once more in the air. However, where in 2009 there was a five-Test tour and then the return series to bed-in a new management team here this time there is no such luxury. England face a hugely tough schedule of 17 tests in the next year: West Indies (a), New Zealand (h), Australia (h), South Africa (a) and Pakistan (a). Even the most optimistic will only see two potential series victories there.
England should win in the West Indies. The Test team is more competitive than their ODI team and the West Indies are both inexperienced particularly in the bowling ranks and disunited, at odds with their administrators and with various players such as Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo and Sunil Narine missing at the IPL.
New Zealand are difficult opponents. Their recent form is that they have won four of their last five Tests and have reached the World Cup Final as well. In early season English conditions it won't be easy against Boult, Southee and co
You'd be a brave person not to expect Australia to win the Ashes convincingly, as a side near its peak and with huge depth in their squad. Steve Smith has become one of the best batsmen in the world, for example and the only concern will be who to leave out from an array of fast bowlers. As it is Johnson, Starc, Harris, Hazlewood and others should have a huge summer.
As for England's possible selections, the cupboard looks a lot barer than the sides they meet this summer. They still have a solid new ball attack in Broad and Anderson but both are getting close to the end of their careers and one wonders what the upcoming schedule means for their longevity. Broad in particular has struggled for form all winter, too. Pacemen such as Liam Plunkett, Chris Jordan and Chris Woakes show intermittent promise, but all three need a big series soon to break through. None look like forming an attack remotely in the class of New Zealand or Australia's. Beyond them bowlers such as Tymal Mills, Steve Finn, Boyd Rankin and Ajmal Shazad are now out of contention. The same for spinners such as Monty Panesar, Danny Briggs, Simon Kerrigan and Scott Borthwick. England have rolled the dice in Caribbean selection with Mark Wood and Adil Rashid.
In the batting line up Cook needs runs. Since 2013 in Test cricket he has 899 runs in 17 matches at an average of under 30, and no centuries. The returning Jonathan Trott is likely to open with him in the Caribbean after a successful A Tour, with Ashley Lyth of Yorkshire waiting in the wings. Gary Ballance was a huge success at No 3 in Test cricket last summer, then had a poor World Cup. After that is a strength of the side with Bell and Root who should both score heavily in the Caribbean and there is the foundation of a batting line up in place for some time to come.
Ben Stokes is likely to be the first choice all-rounder and has much to prove. Since scoring 120 in Perth on the last Ashes tour, he has made 316 runs in 24 innings in all formats for England, at an average of just 14.4, including a sequence of 0, 5, 5, 4, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 23 & 2. Despite some sporadic fiery bowling performances, he has a total of just 4 wickets in his last 12 ODIs and T20s, although 4 Tests have brought 17 wickets.
If England lose in the Caribbean, it is hard to see how Alistair Cook could continue as captain and possibly even remain in the side, barring a huge series for him with the bat. Even with a win there, the Summer could be very tough indeed. A less conservative team would cast Cook and Broad loose now and cut their losses, rather than risk Cook going after bad results either in the Caribbean, or after the New Zealand series, which would give a new captain an almost impossible task to turn fortunes around against Australia.
A comfortable 2-0 or 3-0 win in the Caribbean, followed by the heavy defeat of New Zealand and a close Ashes series, with the captain in prime form, seems too preposterous to contemplate right now. The likely reality is a win in the Caribbean, which they are rightly odds-on to achieve, then further changes at the latest at the end of the summer.
This week on Betting Emporium: Aintree Grand National Saturday 11th April 2015
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