The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th May

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Leicester, Lingfield, Nottingham and over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Everton v Manchester City
• Rugby Union, the Premiership semi-finals
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Tennis the ATP Geneva and Lyon Opens
• Golf the USPGA Championship at Oak Hill

Free Tip

Gallagher Premiership Semi Final Sale Sharks v Leicester Tigers Sunday 3pm

Sale warmed up for Leicester’s visit by thumping the bottom placed Falcons 54-12 and have home advantage here by virtue of finishing second in the league table with the Tigers, last year’s play-off winners, third.

Leicester have lost 8 league games this season and dealt with the loss of their coaching staff to England mid-season. Their strengths are in the pack and at half back where South African marquee player Handre Pollard pulls the strings. Sale match up with those strengths well with a big physical pack and George Ford, who joined Sales from Leicester this season, at 10. They come into the game on the back of their most successful season in 15 years.

Outright prices for the game are Sale 8/13 and -3 on the handicap, Leicester 11/8 and it should be close with Sale rightly favourites at home. It could be as tight as one score, and unlikely to be more than two given how closely the sides match up.

The key differentiator could be defence. In the league this season Sale conceded 435 points to Leicester’s  490. In their last five visits to Sale Leicester have scored 5,3,10,26 and 5 points and in the two games between the two this season Leicester scored less than 2 points per visit to the 22, season lows

16 points Sale to win -3 Handicap at 10/11 generally

Draft Day

There is much NFL excitement over the draft and it is great business for the NFL. This year the draft recorded an audience of over 54m viewers over the three days and 312,000 fans attended in person at Kansas City

Even better business for the NFL is how rookie contracts work since the past two collective bargaining agreements. The rookie wage scale now operates to (1) mandate all drafted players sign four-year contracts; (2) prohibit renegotiations of these contracts for at least three seasons; and (3) pre-determine the financial compensation of every drafted rookie.

As to that predetermined compensation, the 2023 class is going to make virtually the same as the 2022 class, which made virtually the same as the 2021 class. For example, this year’s top pick, quarterback Bryce Young, will have a signing bonus of $24.6m, only 1% more than the $24.3m received by last year’s top pick, defensive tackle Travon Walker.

Why so nominal an increase? This is continuing fallout from the 2021 COVID-19-related cap decline of 8%, when the NFL and the NFLPA made the decision not to change the rookie salary formula for that season. Rather, they decided to claw back increases for future draft classes, keeping the rookie bonus increases at only 1% while the overall cap increases were 14% in 2022 and 8% in 2023.

Speaking of team advantages on rookie pay and rookie contracts, last week was the deadline for NFL teams to exercise fifth-year options on first-round picks from the 2020 draft. And the results are stark: Just 12 of the 32 players picked in that class were optioned. Only 14 were non-optioned on deadline day; five are no longer on the team that drafted them, and one signed a new contract to bridge the option.

In the recent CBA, the NFLPA made some gains by requiring the option year to be fully guaranteed. In the past, it was only guaranteed for injury; teams had low risk in exercising the option. Now they have to think hard about putting a big number on the player a year out, even if it could come back to haunt them, as it did with the Giants and Daniel Jones (the non-exercise of a $20m option cost the team $82m over the next two years).

If you had asked any of these non-exercising teams after the 2020 first round whether they felt confident that they would exercise the option on that player in May 2023, they would have all said “Of course!” In practice, it was a disappointing draft class.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th May

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Newmarket and Thirsk and over the jumps at Uttoxeter and Hexham.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle v Arsenal
• Formula One, the Miami Grand Prix
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Tennis the ATP Italian Open
• Golf the TPC Byron Nelson on the USPGA and on the DP World Tour the Soudal Open

Free Tip

IPL Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians 11am Saturday

Now in the second half of the Group stages both these teams are in contention for the knockout stage of the IPL. Chennai have fallen to third with 5 wins and a no-result this midweek due to rain in their 10 matches. Mumbai are a point behind them in fifth with 5 wins from 9 matches and moving into play-off contention following their chasing down of 215 to beat the Punjab Kings in Midweek.

Chennai’s great strength so far this competition has been their Powerplay batting. Their Powerplay run rate at over 10 runs per over is the best in the competition. They’ve only lost 6 wickets in the powerplay in 9 innings. Their weakness is seam and death bowling. Whilst front-line spinners Jadeja and Ali have combined for 23 wickets only Deshpande of the seamers has taken wickets, 17 of them, but he has gone at nearly 11 runs per over.

Unsurprisingly given the powerplay performances Chennai batting statistics are dominated by the top three in the order. New Zealander Devon Conway has 414 runs at 59 with five 50s. Last year’s top IPL run-scorer Ruturaj Gaikwad has 354 runs at 54 with two 50s and the revitalised Ajinkya Rahane batting at number three has 229 runs at 44 with two 50s.

Beyond the powerplay Devon Conway is also an exceptional player against spin, averaging 60, the best of all players in T20 history with 1000+ runs against the slower bowlers.

The most reliable option throughout this competition to date has been Conway, last week’s winner for this column, who is still not a clear favourite in the market, Gaikwad is, and Conway and should be.

10 points Devon Conway Top Chennai run scorer v Mumbai at 11/4 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 23/10 Betfred 9/4 Coral

Buck Rodgers

Just before the NFL draft last weekend the long awaited trade of Aaron Rodgers from the Packers to the Jets took place. The Packers received:

- A first-round pick swap in 2023

- A high second-round pick in 2023

- A likely first-round pick in 2024 (at worst a second round pick) A conditional 2024 second-round pick becomes a first-round selection if Rodgers plays 65% of the plays in the upcoming season.

- A $60m financial obligation taken off their hands the Packers don't have to pick up the tab on his contract option, a relief for their salary cap. 

All this for a player that was never going to play for them again.

For the Jets this was a necessary but costly move. They started 7–4 last season before losing six consecutive games to close the season out, largely because its quarterbacks were Mike White, Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco. Ignoring the pick swap, the Jets essentially gave up a 2023 2nd and a 2024 1st but a 2nd and 1st is worth it to get a winning Quarterback at last.

A Jets Quarterback has not thrown 10+ touchdown passes in a season since 2019 and the last Jets Quarterback to throw 20+ Touchdown passes in a season was Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015. Aaron Rodgers meanwhile has 8 career seasons with 30+ Touchdown passed. The Jets have one such season in their franchise history.

Rodgers is nearly 40 years old and clearly represents a gamble as the Jets are taking a player who might not play more than one season. Additionally, Rodgers is coming off a down year in which he failed to throw for 300 yards in any game. He also tossed 12 interceptions, the most since his first year as a starter in Green Bay in 2008.

 Still, the Jets roster is stocked with young talent such as Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, and the Jets have no chance in the ultracompetitive AFC without a top-tier quarterback. Now, New York can realistically compete in 2023. Expectations are already sky-high though. One twitter poll with thousands of votes asked what outcome would make it a successful trade for Rodgers: 70% replied reaching the Superbowl or AFC Championship.

For Green Bay, it’s all about resetting with Jordan Love as Quarterback. After having 31 seasons of Brett Favre and Rodgers, Green Bay now have to evaluate Love before deciding whether to look for another option or commit to the former 2020 first-round pick. This deal begins the rebuild with a young roster but without Rodgers’ financial obligations. For now Green Bay have extended Love’s deal by a year with a contract worth over $22m, offering more for Love than picking up the fifth year extension but providing cap relief compared to both the tag ($38m) or Rodgers ($40m) and flexibility beyond this year if required to move in another direction.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th April

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Sandown, On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Tottenham
• Formula One, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
• Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
• Snooker, the World Championship concludes
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Tennis the ATP Italian Open
• Golf the Wells Fargo Championship on the USPGA and on the DP World Tour the Italian Open

Free Tip

IPL Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings 11am Sunday

As we move into the second half of the Group stages both these teams are in contention for the knockout stages. At the time of writing Chennai are top with five wins from 7 games and Punjab Kings sixth with four wins.

Punjab play on Friday at home to Lucknow. CSK are at home to Rajasthan today

Chennai have won 2 of their 3 matches at home, on pitches that are tailored to suit the strengths of their bowling attack. Jadeja and Ali the lead spinners have combined for 17 wickets in the competition so far but the inexperienced seam attack is a weakness. Deshpande the top wicket taker with 12 wickets has gone at 11 runs per over for example. Games at Chennai on low and sometimes worn pitches tend to be lower scoring than the IPL norm.

Chennai’s great strength so far this competition has been their Powerplay batting.

Their Powerplay run rate at 9.88 runs per over is the best in the competition and they’ve average 83 runs per dismissal, again the best of any IPL team. They’ve only lost 5 wickets in the powerplay in 7 games and have attacked over 63% of Powerplay balls, second most in the competition.

Unsurprisingly therefore the Chennai batting statistics are dominated by the top three in the order. New Zealander Devon Conway has 314 runs at 52 with four 50s. Last year’s top IPL run-scorer Ruturaj Gaikwad has 270 runs at 45 with two 50s and the revitalised Ajinkya Rahane batting at number three has 209 runs at 52 with two 50s.

Beyond the powerplay Devon Conway is also an exceptional player against spin, averaging 62.6 the best of all players in T20 history with 1000+ runs against the slower bowlers.

Chennai’s batting in general has been powerful with 18 sixes in the victory over KKR last Sunday and  and 17 sixes in each of four other matches.

Prices for Chennai top scorer are and the most reliable option throughout this competition to date has been Conway who is not clear favourite in the market and should be.

10 points Devon Conway Top Chennai run scorer v KKR at 13/5 with Betfred and Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 5/2 with Coral 

(using prices for Thursday’s match, which should translate for Sunday)

 

Devaluation

The NFL has become a quarterback-driven league. Running backs are largely viewed as replaceable parts with a short shelf life that you don’t need to overpay for.

Just four running backs have been selected in the first round of the past four drafts. There hasn’t been a running back taken higher than 24th overall since 2018 when the New York Giants took Saquon Barkely with the second pick. Of the 85 running backs drafted in the last four years, 59 have been taken in the last four rounds.

Just one team the Dallas Cowboys used more than 8% of their 2022 salary cap space on running backs. The Super Bowl-champion Chiefs used just 1.5% of their cap space on running backs. The Eagles used 2.3%.

Twenty-five veteran running backs have been signed since the start of free agency last month. Twelve of them signed one-year deals. Just two, Miles Sanders and David Montgomery got deals that averaged more than $4 million a year. Former Lion Jamaal Williams had an NFL-high 17 rushing touchdowns last season. The best he could get on the free agent market was a three-year, $12 million deal with the Saints. Meanwhile Free agents Zeke Elliott, Kareem Hunt and Jerick McKinnon.

Just two running backs, McCaffrey and Kamara have contracts with average annual values of $15mn or more. Tight end is the only other position with that few contracts with AAVs of $15 million or more (also two).

It’s the only position in the league where there are more quality players than there is need. Furthermore the days of the workhorse 20-carry-a-game running back are over. In 2005-06, a total of 20 running backs averaged 20 or more carries per game. In the past five seasons, there have been just six.

Teams now take the attitude that it’s drafting a running back is a four- or five-year proposition. After that teams let them go and get someone less expensive.0:00

You can’t say that about many other positions. If you have a top-tier receiver and you let him go, the chances of replacing him with somebody of comparable quality are tiny. If you have a defensive end who is a great pass rusher and you let him go, the chances of replacing him with somebody just as good are really small. But if you let a running back go, the chances of replacing him with somebody just as good are very, very high.

 

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd April

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor, On the flat at Brighton, Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk.
• Football, the FA Cup Semi-Finals and Premier League fixtures
• Snooker, the World Championship continues
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Tennis the ATP Madrid Open
• Golf the Mexico Open on the USPGA and on the DP World Tour the Korea Championhip

Free Tip

NFL Draft Thursday Thursday 27^th April

How many Quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round?

The first round of the 2023 draft takes place next Thursday. Four Quarterbacks are “locks” to be selected in the first round. Either Bryce Young,most likely, or CJ Stroud will be the first player selected, and the other not long after. The Panthers have traded from 9 to 1 and given up other draft picks and DJ Moore to do so, they only do that because of their severe need to acquire a franchise Quarterback. The Texans with the second draft pick also need a long term solution at the position.

After those two players Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are in the frame to be selected by the likes of the Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans in the top 11 picks, or other franchises who may trade up to high draft spots to secure their prospects at the position.

Whilst selecting any rookie Quarterback high is a risk (for every cast iron prospect such as Joe Burrow, there is a Zach Wilson, selected number 2 by the Jets, to counter with) there is a fundamental imbalance in the league. 32 teams do not have long term solutions at the position, and teams without this are said to be in “Quarterback purgatory”. So if teams in this position get a chance to resolve the issue in the draft they’ll look to take it. Having a good rookie Quarterback on their first contract provides a competitive advantage for teams, who can pay the Quarterback comparatively little for the first four or five years of their career and within the operation of a league wide salary cap they can then allocate resources elsewhere on the roster. Their flexibility to do this reduces dramatically where Quarterbacks are on expensive veteran contracts.

The advantage of taking a Quarterback in the first round and hitting on a successful player is also clear. Whereas rookie contracts for draft rounds 2-7 are for four years, for first round picks teams have the option of extending to a fifth year.

So beyond the four Quarterbacks mentioned above, there is a possibility of a fifth player being selected. Firstly the player, Hendon Hooker from Tennessee, might well be worthy of that draft positioning and secondly there are competitive and structural imperatives within the league to finding Quarterbacks and drafting them in the first round.

The NFL draft industry produces volumes of draft analysis by thousands of people. Some of those rank Hooker the third best Quarterback in this draft, as a pure pocket passer with an impressive college record (6,080 passing yards and 58 touchdowns in the last two seasons, SEC player of the year )with the downside that he is recovering from an ACL injury in his final college season.

What really appeals though is the list of teams that might need a young Quarterback, outside the top 10 picks who could be interested at the first round draft spot. In addition teams in the early part of the second round might consider trading to the end of the first round to secure the fifth round option.

In no particular order they are, and this is not an exhaustive list:

Minnesota Vikings (pick 23) Kirk Cousins at age 34 is a free agent after this season, unlikely to want to give him another big contract. Unlikely to be in draft position next year to get one of the two coming superstars (Williams or Maye).

Seattle Seahawks (picks 5 and 20) the second of these two picks gained in the Russell Wilson trade is a candidate for a Quarterback to provide the long term answer beyond Geno Smith.

Detroit Lions (picks 6 and 18) Pick 18 is a spot where they might try to find a successor to /improvement on Jared Goff.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick 19) Post Tom Brady, with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield on the roster and a big rebuild on the way.

Baltimore Ravens (pick 22) Have to have an alternative path should Lamar Jackson move on or mot play this year.

Add to them the Titans (pick 11^th), a candidate to move up with a second round pick, the Commanders (pick 16^th) and the Patriots (pick 14^th, also a candidate to move up from the second round).

So that’s 8 teams, and we just need one. I like the odds of 5 Quarterbacks being selected in the first round, yet the prices have 4+ as the underdog and I think it should be the favourite. A caveat, only a few UK firms have draft markets live at the time of writing and these prices are only at Skybet, Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power

15 points Over 4.5 Quarterbacks to be selected in the first round 6/5 SkyBet Evens Bet365

I’ll keep checking in on all the books in the run up to next Thursday and if enough firms price the draft up will do a separate free column on various markets before the draft starts.

 

Dominance

There is an overwhelming sense that after only three races of the new Formula One season a procession has begun to an inevitable conclusion of Max Verstappen and Red Bull claiming the title and the manner in which it is likely to play out will be far less welcomed by F1 as it attempts to hang on to all the new fans it has attracted in recent years.

In the opening two races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Red Bull have secured two one-twos. In Jeddah Verstappen came back from 15^th on the grid to take second with both cars exhibiting remarkable pace, at times a second a lap quicker than the rest of the field. Then in Melbourne Verstappen won again, and Perez climbed from 20^th to 5^th at the end.

In both Jeddah and Melbourne Verstappen roared past Lewis Hamilton as if the Mercedes was in a lower formula, such was the Red Bull advantage assisted by the effectiveness of their DRS unit.

Such ascendancy is not unusual in F1. In the modern era McLaren’s MP4/4 in the hands of Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost secured 15 poles and 15 wins from 16 races in 1988. In 1992 the Williams FW14B was untouchable. It scored ten wins from 16 races with Nigel Mansell taking nine, including five in a row to open the season before sealing the title with five races remaining. In 2004 Michael Schumacher was unstoppable with 12 wins from the opening 13 races as he and the Ferrari F2004 subdued all opposition. Most recently the boot was on the other foot for Mercedes when they opened the hybrid era with the W05, which took 18 of 19 poles and won 16 races, including 11 one-twos.

Red Bull enjoy an advantage now similar to, if not greater than, any of those cars. Nor does there appear any real likelihood of them even being challenged, certainly in the short term. Mercedes have conceded they have pursued the wrong design concept and have to return to the drawing board.

Ferrari, who at least challenged Red Bull last season, are floundering too. They have neither the pace nor it seems the reliability to compete. Which leaves only Aston Martin, who have done superbly to join the big three but realistically cannot yet muster the resources to bridge the half-second gap to Red Bull.

Red Bull are in a class of one at the front of the field. A season of victories is unlikely but Verstappen and Pérez disappearing into the distance at the head of the field in almost every race is very much on the cards.

Which may be an issue for F1. The sport’s success has driven a huge rise in interest over the past three years especially in the US, a market F1 has targeted for expansion and which will hold three GPs this year. Some newer fans (and to be fair some who have been following the sport for years) are unlikely to feel quite as enthusiastic about a 23-race season where the race winner is largely a foregone conclusion.

The commercial imperative this may impact is an important one, certainly to F1’s owners and there may already be some impetus on the FIA to impose a regulation change in an attempt to peg back the advantage which would be a blunt and unfair way to treat Red Bull. Indeed Toto Wolff emphasised that his rivals instead should be praised not penalised for their success.

The Red Bull may ultimately be one of F1’s great cars but the spectacle might fall flat with a dominance that F1 may not like.

 

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th April

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow and Newcastle, On the flat at Great Yarmouth and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premiership fixtures include West Ham United v Arsenal
• Snooker, the World Championship begins
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Tennis the ATP BMW Open
• Golf the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana on the USPGA and on the DP World Tour the ISPS Handa Championship

Free Tip

IPL RCB v Delhi Capitals 11am Saturday

RCB, a perennial disappointment in IPL seasons, look like repeating the trend this year. Following three successive years of play-off appearances they are currently 1-2 after 3 games of this year’s competition having failed to defend 212 against Lucknow on Monday. For all their batting strength, the bowling attack has issues with Hazlewood absent injured all tournament and Topley injured in the first game. In their first three games only two bowlers have taken five wickets, and only two have an economy rate of less than 10 an over.

This should present an opportunity for Delhi, who are bottom of the table having lost their first four games. Delhi’s problems are in the batting department, missing Rishabh Pant through injury so few of their top six are in any form. The exception to this is David Warner, who came into this tournament in lean form and recovering from injury but in these first four games has 209 runs, the second highest run scorer in the tournament with three fifties. Only two Delhi batsmen have over 50 runs in the tournament so far and for a line up including Rossouw and Marsh that’s a poor start. Team totals of 142,162,143 to start the competition were barely competitive. 172 on Tuesday against Mumbai was better but still not enough to win.

Warner apart, who looks a rock solid favourite in the top batsman market, Axar Patel bats seven and in a team full of unattractive betting options his lower-order batting has been valuable. He struck his 182 runs at an average of 45 and a strike rate of 151.6 in IPL 2022. He began this season with 16,36 and 2 in successive innings then top scored with 54 in the fourth game, just ahead of Warner with 51.

In the Top Delhi batsman market, Warner looks very solid, Axar more speculative but over-priced.

12 points David Warner Top Delhi Capitals batsman at 23/10 Betfred, 9/4 with Bet365, William Hill

6 points Axar Patel Top Delhi Capitals batsman at 14/1 Betfred, 10/1 William Hill

 

Drafting

It’s just a fortnight until the 2023 NFL draft in Kansas City, which follows over a month of Free Agency, where in some cases signings and trades have altered team needs.

There are four quarterbacks set to go at the top of Round 1, Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J.Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis and if a team isn't inside the top seven picks, it's going to be hard to get one of them. T ere will be a drop-off to whoever ends up being the fifth Quarterback in the class (probably Tennessee's Hendon Hooker on Day 2.

The Carolina Panthers traded to leapfrog from the number 9 draft slot to the top of the draft. With the Texans (pick 2), Colts (pick 4) and Raiders (pick 7) likely to be looking at Quarterback teams lower down the draft have been pivoting towards contingency plans at the position. The signings if Jacoby Brissett (Commanders), Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) and Taylor Heinicke (Falcons) are all stop-gap additions to accompany young quarterbacks already on the roster. If Sam Howell, Kyle Trask and Desmond Ridder succeed for these teams then so be it, if not these teams could be in position for the top Quarterbacks in the 2024 draft notably USC’s Caleb Williams.

After the Panthers trade the Arizona Cardinals at number 3 in the draft have a very tradeable pick and they are rumoured to have six other teams interested in moving up given the scarcity of Quarterback supply compared to demand.

Elsewhere this hasn’t been a free agency period with big deals for skill position players such as wide receivers and running backs. General managers know this is a deep draft class for these positions and it seems like they'd rather have younger and less expensive options at those positions as opposed to paying top dollar for veterans. The draft class is full of complementary options who can help out an NFL offense right away but few top tier options outside running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

A number of interior defensive linemen got big free agency deals. Daron Payne and Javon Hargreave secured $85-90m contracts whilst Dalvin Tomlinson, Dre-Mont Jones and Zach Allen all got circa $30m guaranteed. Demand is high at defensive tackle, but the lack of supply has teams bidding up contract values and it's a clear indicator of how NFL teams feel about this year's underwhelming draft class on the interior.

Teams at the end of the draft’s first round have especially focused on the offensive line in free agency. We've seen the Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens all sign blockers to lucrative deals. A big reason for that is the expectation that the top Offensive tackles will be drafted in the middle of the first round. Plus, the interior line class is below average.

For contenders picking in the Nos. 21-31 range, there's also the risk of relying on a rookie to protect your franchise quarterback, notably for example Kansas City and Cincinnati; neither front office is comfortable waiting until the draft to secure protection for Mahomes and Burrow.

 

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