The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th February

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Kempton Park
• Football Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City.
• Rugby Union the start of the Six Nations Championship
• Tennis ATP Opens in Cordoba, Dallas and Montpellier
• Golf The Phoenix Open on the USPGA and the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour

The Cheltenham Festival

Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here

Free tip

Six Nations Round 1: Wales v Ireland Saturday 2.15pm

Last year in Dublin Ireland beat Wales 29-7 on their way to the Triple Crown. This game should be much closer.

Home defeats against Italy and Georgia underpinned Wayne Pivac’s departure less than a year out from the World Cup, so returning Wales coach Warren Gatland has little time to try and turn things around for Wales. As most of the squad are familiar with him and his style (strong defence, good kicking game, fierce competition at the breakdown) then that should be relatively straightforward.

Wales do though remain underpowered in the forwards though, and when up against teams such as France, England and Ireland, it will likely be hard to compete in the power stakes within contact or at the set-piece. Their key players are also beyond their peak years too. Ken Owens is 36 yet still Wales' best hooker, second row Alun Wyn-Jones is now 37, while back-row Justin Tipuric is 33, fly-half Dan Biggar is 33, and full-back Leigh Halfpenny is 34. For Gatland and these players, its eyes on the Autumn World Cup then no doubt a more substantial overhaul for 2024 onwards but for now though, this is a team with 952 test caps and very streetwise.

Many of the squad come into the Championship in good form. Fifteen Ospreys players have made the squad. The Welsh regions have been very poor in recent seasons, but this year the Ospreys have picked up landmark Heineken Champions Cup victories at Montpellier and Leicester Tigers, as well as beating the French side at home to book a Round of 16 spot.

Ireland won 4 out of 5 games last year and are favourites for the Championship this. World ranked number one after winning a Test series in New Zealand last year, then toppling South Africa and Australia they of course draw on the players from the pre-eminent European side Leinster with key players including lock Tadhg Beirne, Openside Josh van der Flier who was named World Player of the Year for 2022 after a prolonged period of great performances and Jonny Sexton, still the best fly-half in the country though he comes into the tournament fresh from injury and without a prep.

Ireland should win of course and are best priced 4/11 to do so, Wales 2/1 up to +7 on the handicap. I don’t think the winning margin will beyond a score or at most 10 points though. Gatland will have Wales set up to play territory, to compete at the breakdown and spoil

12 points Ireland to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 Betfred 6/4 Bet365

England won only one of the last 17 Test matches that they played under Joe Root, culminating in an 1-0 series defeat last spring in the Caribbean. Under their new skipper and coach, however, it's been nine wins and only one defeat in 10 for England with constant attack and bold declarations. Last summer in Birmingham, England chased down 378 to beat India by seven wickets.  Earlier in the season targets that previously would have daunted them against New Zealand were also overhauled at Lord's, Trent Bridge and Headingley. “Bazball” faces its greatest test this summer in a home Ashes series.

What other examples have there been in sport in which a change of style has transformed results? Thanks in part to Hollywood perhaps the best known is the baseball side the Oakland Athleticss. In 2001 they finished second in the American League West. They lost a trio of star players. Expectations were gloomy. Using 'Moneyball' techniques Billy Beane signed a number of 'under-the-radar' free agent players; they embarked on a winning sequence of 20 successive games, and finished top of their division that year.

Then of course there are the “Cinderella” stories such as Leicester City, Premier League champions in 2015/16 under Claudio Ranieri, after finishing 14th the previous season and Greece unexpectedly winning the 2004 European Football Championships.

Of course, there is work to do for the England cricket team. This summer's Ashes is followed by a trip down under 2025/26. Until it's adopted by other countries it won't be a game changer outside this present English regime. Only time will tell whether it's a freak run of results or it assumes a legacy across the wider game.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at  Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Football The Fourth round of the FA Cup
• NFL The Conference Championships.
• Cricket the One Day International series between South Africa and England continues in Bloemfontein on Sunday
• Tennis the Australian Open concludes
• Golf The Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA and the Ras-Al-Khaimah Desert Classic on the DP World Tour

The Cheltenham Festival

Neil’s package of selections for the Chelteham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe HERE

Free tip

The 2023 Six Nations

In the key game in last year’s Six Nations France beat Ireland 30-24 in Paris on their way to a Grand Slam title. It was the only game that Ireland lost.

This season once again the two sides are the favourites, it’s 9/2 bar the front two. However in 2023 the schedule reverses. Ireland the two toughest looking games at home, England and France and France have three games away.

Added spice to the tournament is provided by the return of Warren Gatland as Wales coach and Steve Borthwick replacing Eddie Jones at England.

With Ireland at home to France and likely to be narrow favourites for the game in which both sides are likely to be favourites to beat any other side in the competition its tempting to consider their prospects for the Grand Slam. However a Grand Slam is available at 3/1 currently, and Evens no Grand Slam. Why might that be? Well firstly Ireland travel to Cardiff first up, a more formidable prospect than it might have been a few weeks ago with a change of coach and grittier team selection

Secondly every team is going to have to contend with extra variance on results from the incidence of yellow and red cards and new tackling laws.

Thirdly Wales should be much more competitive, Italy should win a game or two too if their improvement continues as it did at the back end of last year’s tournament, so we could see a very close championship

In the outright market prices are as follows

Ireland 11/8

France 13/8

England 9/2

Wales 14/1

Scotland 25/1

Italy 500/1

Ireland look good favourites to me with the Ireland/France game in Dublin clearly the key

16 points Ireland to win the Six Nations Championship at 11/8 generally

Spicy

Warren Gatland is back as Wales head coach ahead of the Six Nations, while Eddie Jones has returned to lead Australia following his England departure. Wales and Australia are both in Pool C for this year's Rugby World Cup and meet in Lyon on September 24. Intriguingly both sides are in the same half of the World Cup draw as England, and the consensus expectation would be that one of the two sides would meet England in the Quarter-Finals depending on who finishes first and second in their groups, with now added spice to both potential encounters.

2022 was a hard year for the Wallabies. In the July test series against England, they won the opening game in Perth 30-28, but went on to lose the series losing 17-25 in Brisbane and 17-21 in Sydney. In their opening Rugby Championship match against Argentina, they were down 16-10 at halftime but made a comeback to win 26-41 in Mendoza, only for them to get thumped by the Pumas 48-17 the next week. They then dominated the Springboks 25-17 in Adelaide, but got beaten the next week in Sydney by the Boks (8-24) Then in September  the Wallabies dropped to their lowest-ever World Rugby ranking after losing to the All Blacks in Melbourne. The team fell to ninth on World Rugby's rankings ladder. They sunk even lower after losing 40-14 to the All Blacks at Eden Park. The Wallabies then managed a close win against Scotland at Murrayfield (15-16) but went on to lose to France (30-29), a stunning loss to Italy (28-27) and to world no. 1 Ireland (13-10). The Wallabies were down 34-13 to Wales after 58 minutes of their last game of the season, but pulled off another comeback to finish a woeful season on a high (34-39) and are currently the sixth ranked side in the World, up from their low of 9^th in the middle of last year.

Jones previously coached the Wallabies from 2001 to 2005, guiding them to the 2003 World Cup final where they were beaten by England, and has been swiftly re-appointed on a five-year contract after his England exit in place of Dave Rennie.

Of course ten months is not much time to do root and branch reform but no doubt there will be overtures to rugby league players to join the squad and selection changes in time for the Autumn

Gatland enjoyed a hugely successful 12-year spell as Wales head coach from 2007 to 2019, overseeing four Six Nations triumphs and three Grand Slams during that period, as well as finishing runners-up twice. He then returned home to take up a position with Super Rugby outfit Chiefs along with leading the British and Irish Lions on their 2021 tour of South Africa, but the door opened for his return after Wayne Pivac was sacked in December after a disappointing 2021 which included defeats to Italy and Georgia.

Already in his squad selection for the upcoming Six Nations you can see clues as to the approach with a bigger team with more ball winners in the back row. At its core, Wales are an experienced team for whom the World Cup will be last hurrah for the likes of Wyne-Jones, Faletau, Biggar, North and Halfpenny. With that experience and Gatland’s knowledge a quick fix towards at least competitiveness in 2023 is very likely.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at  Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Football Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Chelsea and Arsenal v Manchester United
• NFL The Play-Offs Divisional round.
• Rugby Union European Champions Cup Pool Matches
• Tennis the Australian Open continues
• Golf The Farmers Insurance Open on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour

The Cheltenham Festival

Neil’s package of selections for the Chelteham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here  

Free tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Pool B

Ulster v Sale 8pm Saturday

The Final round of pool matches this weekend and for both of these sides this is the last chance to scrape into the top 8 of each Pool and on into the last sixteen. Both are currently outside the qualifying positions. Ulster have lost their three games picking up three bonus points. Sale won one game and have 5 points from that win. With 5 points on offer for a bonus point win a high scoring winner of this game may make the top 8 depending on other results.

Ulster have now lost six of their last seven games in this competition, though it has to be said that the fixtures for both these sides this year have been very tough, in a mini-group with tournament champions La Rochelle and European powerhouses Toulouse. That’s been reflected in results, with Ulster’s losses of 39-0 to Sale, 36-29 to La Rochelle in Dublin and then 7-3 in a resilient performance the reverse fixture in terrible conditions last weekend

Meanwhile Sale have also had it tough. After their Ulster win they lost 45-19 to Toulouse and 27-5 in the reverse game last weekend, down to 14 men for much of the game.

Domestically Sale are 2^nd in the Gallagher Premiership having won 9 of their 12 games. A strong side. Ulster meanwhile are 4^th in the URC with 7 wins from their 11 matches. Whilst the competition doesn’t have the depth of some of the other European leagues it is strong at the top end with Leinster, Munster and the South African sides.

The game elsewhere in the Pool between Clermont and the Stormers finishes just before this match starts so the sides will know the situation as they take to the field. If the Stormers win as expected, this becomes a winner take all game. If Clermont do the upset, the Ulster are out and Sale need a bonus point win to have a chance.

The weather forecast for Belfast on Saturday is rough, rain and snow so this may be primarily a tight battle in the forwards but Sale are in better form and should be capable of winning narrowly here and we can get up to 2/1 on that outcome

12 points Sale to win at 2/1 Betfred, 15/8 generally

Globetrotters

England may be playing only six one-day internationals (in South Africa and Bangladesh), three T20s (Bangladesh) and two Test matches (New Zealand) between now and the end of May but their players will be involved in the five T20 domestic tournaments taking place during that period as the franchise format proliferates around the world game with action in  Australia, the UAE, South Africa, Pakistan and India over the next five months.

The Australian Big Bash League runs until February 4th and features Sam Billings, Alex Hales, Chris Jordan and James Vince.

The new South African franchise league, the SAT20, is underway running unti  the middle of February. Jofra Archer has returned to competitive action for the first time since May 2021 and the tournament also features Sam Curran, Olly Stone, Reece Topley, Harry Brook, Jos Buttler, Jason Roy, Will Jacks and Adil Rashid,

The inaugural UAE T20 tournament (the ILT20) is scheduled at the same time as the new South African tournament. Joe Root plays for the Dubai Capitals, having been rested for England’s one-day series against South Africa and the tournament also features Moeen Ali, Ben Duckett, Rehan Ahmed and Dan Lawrence.

The Pakistan Super League is being held until March 19. Among those scheduled to play are Hales, Ali, Vince, Brook, Rashid, Roy and Will Smeed.

All this ahead of the IPL featuring 15 English players from the end of March to the end of May which allows England’s Test players to return before the first Test of the summer against Ireland at Lord’s, starting on June 1.

A lucrative time to be a T20 cricketer with the proliferation of leagues across the cricket playing world, with still questions longer term about player workload, availability for longer form cricket.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
• Football Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
• NFL The Play-Offs Wild Card Weekend.
• Rugby Union European Champions Cup Pool Matches
• Tennis the Australian Open starts next week
• Golf The American Express Championship on the USPGA and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour

The Cheltenham Festival

Neil’s package of selections for the Chelteham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here

Free tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Pool B

Bulls v Exeter Chiefs Saturday 5.30pm

This the first year the South African teams are in the European Cup and there are challenges for both the South African sides, mainly around travel and schedule and new exposure for English club sides such as Exeter travelling this distance for pool games, an experience gained by the URC sides over the last couple of years the South African clubs have been in that competition

The Bulls have won 1 of their 2 pool games in this competition so far and are 4^th in the URC with 8 wins from their 12 games. In the European Cup they sent a second string team to Exeter and were beaten 44-14 following a 42-36 win over Lyon in Round 1

Exeter have won both of their pool games so far, in addition to the Bulls win they had an excellent 27-12 win in Castres, a notoriously tough place to visit. In the Gallagher Premiership are 7^th with 6 wins from the 12 matches, a far cry from their record when winning the league a few seasons ago

The match is being played at altitude in Pretoria, and of course that’s going to be a challenge for any Northern Hemisphere side going into those conditions “cold”. The Bulls are a punishing prospect in those conditions with a dominant pack and the prodigious boot of fly half Morne Steyn working for excellent field position from which to work.

What Exeter do have is a very settled side and pattern of play and bags of experience from the likes of Slade, Nowell, Hogg, Cowan Dickie and Simmonds to keep this competitive. With 8 teams advancing from each pool, even a losing bonus point from keeping the result to within a loss of 8 points or less can make a big difference for the knock-out stages

The outright prices are the Bulls 8/15 and The Chiefs 8/5 and the Chiefs +5 can be supported on the handicap

11 points Exeter Chiefs +5 at 10/11 William Hill

Compensation

Former Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton has every intention of being a head coach of an NFL franchise for the 2023 season. The question now becomes for what team, and for how much?

Payton will command a salary that will make him a top-three highest-paid coach in the NFL and not every team owner has the appetite for that. But for the ones who do, there's another cost associated with acquiring Payton: draft-pick compensation.

The Saints hold Payton's rights. Any team that wants to talk with Payton about their head-coaching vacancy will have to first put together a package for New Orleans that the Saints would accept should Payton get the job.

A coaching trade hasn't taken place since the Jets sent a fourth-round pick to the Chiefs for Herm Edwards in 2006. Back then, trading for coaches was extremely common relative to today's NFL.

It’s widely assumed that Payton would cost a first round draft pick in compensation.

There are currently three teams without a permanent head coach: Carolina, Indianapolis and Denver. Arizona and Houston have varying possibilities of opening up. Without a surprising retirement or firing, it's hard to imagine more than a half-dozen will be available this offseason.

The Broncos have the money to get Payton if he's interested, but they'd likely have to give up their late first-round pick they got from the Bradley Chubb trade. Payton would have to be convinced he could fix Russell Wilson, too, because his contract necessitates that Wilson will be there at least in 2023 and possibly in 2024

In Indianapolis and Carolina, keeping the interim coaches is a very real possibility, albeit for vastly different reasons. Colts owner Jim Irsay is strongly hinting at promoting Jeff Saturday to permanent head coach once the interviewing process is complete. In Charlotte, team owner David Tepper has seen Steve Wilks take a moribund team (without Christian McCaffrey) and become a division contender as players openly campaign for Wilks.

Everyone knows Payton would have interest in the Cowboys and Chargers jobs. The issue is that both are unlikely to open, at least right now. Mike McCarthy will have the Cowboys traveling to the NFC South champion on Super Wild Card weekend where they'll be a favoured team.

Brandon Staley has the Chargers in the playoffs for the first time under his coaching. The franchise also isn't known to have deep pockets, and big-time contracts to Derwin James and J.C. Jackson last offseason plus the richest contract in franchise history that it will have to dole out to Justin Herbert in 2023 means financial flexibility on the coaching side is limited.

Arizona could open up, but its quarterback may not be ready for Week 1 of the 2023 season. Payton may not want to go to that organization anyway. Houston has its own organisational issues but at least it has a bevy of picks to send to New Orleans while keeping enough to secure its franchise quarterback of the future in April.

If Payton winds up back on a sideline in 2023, it will cost his new team at least a first-round pick and very possibly more. In some cases, those would be picks the team isn't in a position to afford right now. That sort of draft capital is what could be used to get the quarterback Payton would need on the roster unless of course he goes after free-agent-to-be Tom Brady.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and on the all weather at Kempton and Lingfield
• Football the FA Cup Third Round
• NFL Week Eighteen.
• Tennis ATP Adelaide International and ASB Classic
• Golf Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and the Hero Cup in Abu Dhabi on the DP World Tour

The NFL play-offs

With just one week left in the NFL Regular season the package of selections is up 50 points with a  5% ROI. We have just added this year’s play-offs, which start on 14th January, to the website, last year’s play offs package had a 34% ROI, and you can subscribe here

Free tip

FA Cup Ante-post

A look a the FA Cup market ahead of the third round this weekend. In the last 25 years, 22 FA Cups have been won by “top six” teams (Portsmouth, Wigan and Leicester are the exceptions) and such is the strength in depth of top six squads now that a similar result should be expected this time. However 13 of the 25 runners up have been from outside the top six, and realistically ante-post bets are looking for an each way return, which requires making the final at ½ the odds 1,2.

The market this time round is 25/1 bar the top 7, including Newcastle as a side with the financial resources to be moving rapidly towards the top six.

Such is the importance of the Premier League and its prize money that most teams will rotate in the FA Cup but the motivation to do so is especially pronounced for teams battling for a top six finish or fearing relegation. A team fighting at neither end of the table can be decent value subject to the usual luck of the draw round by round, with none of the betting attention of the top teams.

A candidate this time is Crystal Palace, currently 12^th in the Premier League seven points clear of 18^th and with a home third round tie against a Southampton side that have other things on their mind, namely staying up. Palace are available at 50/1 in a place and 40/1 generally, more than twice the odds of the front seven in the market.

I think they can give us a run at a price. Leicester, Villa (both 33/1) and Brentford/Fulham (both 66/1) are also in the sub-set of mid-table teams for consideration.  Unlikely to challenge for the top six, will win enough games not to be looking over their shoulders at the drop. Leicester have been picking strong sides through a Carabao cup run, for example. Teams such as this should see the cup as their main (only) way of getting a trophy in seasons where they look safe. Brentford have West Ham at home, Villa at home to Stevenage and Leicester/Fulham are away to lower league opposition. Villa especially look an interesting proposition with much improved form under Unai Emery. We can all pick our favourites for an ante-post selection, mine are below

12 points each way Aston Villa to win the FA Cup at 33/1 Bet365 and 25/1 generally (1/2 1,2)

10 points each way Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup at 50/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes/Coral and 40/1 generally (1/2 1,2)

Contenders

For the second consecutive season and only the fifth time in the last 28 years NFL teams have had to start 60 quarterbacks in 2022. The record is 64 quarterbacks in 2007.

When the Los Angeles Rams traded for Matthew Stafford before the start of last season, he was healthy throughout his next 21 21 games and led the team to 16 wins and a Super-Bowl. This season Stafford went 3-6 before injuries sidelined him for the season. John Wolford then went 1-2 then Bryce Perkins went 0-1. Baker Mayfield, the club’s fourth Quarterback of the season, has since stepped in and gone 2-1.

The Rams are one of two teams to start four quarterbacks this season. Twenty teams have started two quarterbacks in 2022 and seven of those have been forced to start three quarterbacks.

Since 1995 when teams have been able to keep their quarterback starter on the field they have won 52.4% of their games. When a team has to play a backup quarterback, it wins only 41.6% of the time. When a team had to go to its third option the winning percentage dips to 32.1% and if you had to start a fourth quarterback you won only 30.2% of the time.

There have been 12 teams that have kept their first quarterback on the field for every game this season. Six of those teams lead divisions, two currently hold down wild-card spots and three others remain in the playoff hunt as the regular season ends.

Buffalo (Josh Allen), Cincinnati (Joe Burrow), Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes), Jacksonville (Trevor Lawrence), Minnesota (Kirk Cousins) and Tampa Bay (Tom Brady) all lead their divisions with healthy quarterbacks. The Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert) and New York Giants (Daniel Jones) have both secured wild-card spots with 16-game starters at the quarterback position. Detroit (Jared Goff), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers) and Seattle (Geno Smith) all remain in the post-season chase with healthy quarterbacks.

San Francisco has done the best job at managing the quarterback position. When first option Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury on the second weekend, Jimmy Garoppolo stepped in and won seven of his 10 starts. When he broke his foot in the 12^th game, Brock Purdy stepped in to win all four of his starts and help the team win the NFC West with an 12-4 record.

Elsewhere rookie Kenny Pickett has won five games as Pittsburgh’s second option at the quarterback position this season as have Andy Dalton of the New Orleans Saints and Taylor Heinicke for the Washington Commanders. Cooper Rush stepped in for an injured Dak Prescott early in the season and won four of his five starts to help the 12-4 Cowboys stay in contention in the NFC East. So it is possible for back ups to keep teams rolling but they are the exception to the rule. Franchise quarterbacks get the $200 million contracts with upwards of $100 million guaranteed because they make teams contenders.

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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase