Cheltenham Festival 2019 (Preview) - What Will You Get For Your Money
Answers to the questions people often ask.
If you are thinking of subscribing or you have already subscribed to our tips for Cheltenham this year you probably want to know what you will get for your money. I thought I'd lay out exactly what you can expect so that you'll know when the bets will come, how many bets there will be, how much we suggest you should bet on the horses and what the results might look like.
Each day I'll write a summary of each race discussing many of or all of the horses and these will appear on the site from 9am each day when you'll get the write up for the 1.30pm race and then you'll get an additional write up every half an hour so the final race will appear at noon. I totally understand that some people would prefer to get the bets earlier, maybe overnight or some people might like them all in one go but I do have my reasons for working in this way. I don't want to get the bets up too early as I like to have the maximum amount of information possible and late non-runners, late changes in the going, late moves in the market and extra information coming my way from fellow professionals I talk to are four examples of reasons I like to wait until the morning of racing to do my main work. There are a few of us following these bets and I do want all subscribers to get their bets on at the prices I recommend so I don't want to publish the write-ups prior to 9am. Each day the first couple of races are conditions events with established ante-post markets so by the time we bet on races where the prices may move a bit faster it will be after 10am and hopefully that will mean we all get on.
In some races I will suggest betting as many as four or five horses and probably in those races all the bets will be each-way. In other races I will bet just one horse and in maybe a couple of the races in the week I might have no bets at all. Even if I don't suggest a bet in the race I will still write my reasons why and my general thoughts on the race. The stakes I suggest on each bet will vary from one point to fifty points and I will try to stick to an avearge of around fifteen points on each bet and around thirty points on each race. In a race like the County Hurdle I could see myself having four bets with one horse being a six points each-way, one being seven points each-way, one being eight points each-way and one being ten points each-way. That would make that a really important race for us with over sixty staked. It's possible that in some other races I might just have a bet on one horse of just seven or eight points so , you can see, that the variance will be pretty big with some races being much more important in terrms of how the week goes. I would guess we'll stake around 800 points and over the years at Cheltenham that number has varied between 700 and 1000.
A common question that people ask is how much should I bet or a better question maybe which is how much should I bet to make it worth paying £200? We have done horse racing for six years at Betting Emporium and in that time we have had around a thousand bets staking 16,000 points with an ROI of a little over 5%. Personally I'm pretty disappointed with that ROI and I'd say that if we get to 20 years I'd bet big money that it would be higher rather than lower. If we do make 5% though and we bet 800 points, which is a little on the low end of what we might do, then you'll make 40 points. If you choose to bet £10 a point then you'll stake a total of £8,000 over the week and you'll make £400 and pay us £200 of that for the service. I personally would say that if you were planning to play for less than that then it may not be worth it as you'll be spending too much of the average amount you win on the cost of the service. It's definitely possible that we make much more than 5% and if you have been playing for £3 or £5 a point you still make enough to pay us and have plenty left over but, of course, we could lose. I just wanted to give you an idea of the range of results. I would say if you do play £10 a point then it's extremely unlikely that you lose £8,000 as we have a large volume of bets and you'd expect at least a couple to win and quite a few to place, even if we do have a bad week. I do think it's important to be comforatble with the stakes though and to understand what could happen if things go wrong.
Talking of losing we have now done thirty racing festivals for Betting Emporium and although we have made a profit overall we have lost on eighteen and won on just twelve...it's quite likely that we win more money on the weeks when we win than we lose on the weeks that we lose. There are twenty eight races at the Festival and we will probably need at least six winners to make a profit, given that we don't tend to bet short prices. If we have five winners we might win a little or lose a little but it will be close either way. I would definitely say that if all of this sounds like it's not the style of betting you enjoy, if the sums involved sound way too much for you, if the swings involved are likely to be uncomfortable for you or if you hate the idea of losing then this is probably not for you and you really shouldn't subscribe. If getting involved with Betting Emporium and this Cheltenham week is likely to cause you to get into financial difficulty if things go wrong, if you think there is a chance that you are the sort of person who might write to us, at the end of a tough week when we have all worked really hard, had very little sleep and lost our own money, to ask for a refund or to be rude in any way to any member of the Betting Emporium staff then I shall say quite strongly right now that we really DO NOT want your money, please just go and do something else but definitely don't think about subscribing. It's definitely possible that if you are one of the people who feels like they can't really afford to bet a tenner a point but you decide to give it a go anyway, that everything goes well and we win on day one and you don't look back. It is also very possible that things start badly and you run out of money immediately before we have five winners and turn it all around. I won't labour the point but I do want people to go into this with their eyes wide open and I hope we are all adults and can take responsibility for our actions.
In terms of getting the bets on we do recommend that you open up as many accounts as you can but I do appreciate that some firms are less keen on taking racing bets than others. We do have some strict rules with Betting Emporium and one is that we don't tip things that are simply errors by the bookmaker or where there is a stand out price offered by just one firm. Generally I will attempt to only suggest a bet where at least two firms have the price and I will avoid mentioning some of the very poor firms and focus on those with betting shops as well as Bet365. I would say that if you can get on with Ladbrokes, Betfred, Paddy Power, Hills and Bet365 or at least three of those you will be Ok. Where I tip a win bet I will mention exchanges but I'll suggest a price with a bookmaker as there may not be liquidity for us all to get on with exchanges although the price may be a little bigger. It's likely that people who have followed us in all thirty meetings have made a fair bit more than 5% as they have shopped around for the absolute best prices and we have recorded our results at a touch off the top price in some cases. I would also ask that people don't immediately smash into the exchanges on the bets the second they go up as that will trigger a lot of blue on oddschecker and might stop us all getting on. Perhaps have a try to get on with the bookmakers first.
I hope that that didn't sound too pessimistic. I really feel good about the week and I've already done more than a hundred hours work plus I've watched virtually every race that has been run for at least a year. I just wanted to write something that would save a lot of emails asking the same questions and also to try and stop a few people who might be hard to deal with from subscribing. Most of our customers are lovely and I really feel the responsibility of helping us all to win. I certainly hope we do.
The cost of the four day package is £199 and includes all the write ups, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
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One account that you might find useful if you don't have many accounts to use is RedZoneSports. You can open your account here