The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th October

 

Coming Up this weekend:

 

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, and Redcar, over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Nations League matches including England matches against Croatia and in the Czech Republic.
• Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix
• Golf, the Baycurrent Classic on the USPGA Tour and the Spanish Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters

 

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Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Bath v Exeter Chiefs Friday 7.45pm

This is the second week of the new PREM rugby season. Last weekend as the season opened 52 tries were scored in the five games, a new record for the league beating a week in 2017 when the league contained 12 teams not 10.

This continues a trend from last season where tries per game were up over 8 from 6.5 two seasons ago. There are various reasons why the sort is becoming higher scoring.

• Player fitness and conditioning
•  Specialist skills coaching, even forwards are now proficient offloaders to keep moves going
• Last year’s changes to rules around the aerial game, preventing the recipient of high balls being shielded. The aerial game has become more of a contest and more difficult to defend.
• This year’s changes around defending mauls, removing defenders on the side quicker
• Longer term, the introduction of yellow cards and twenty-minute red cards and TMOs has led to more players leaving the field and more space to attack into

In last season’s PREM play-off semi-final Exeter Chiefs pulled off the upset winning at Champions Bath, before losing to the Northampton Saints in the final.

Bath entered this season without significant players South African prop Thomas Du Toit and No.8 Alfie Barbeary who left for Saracens. Even without them Bath have one of the best and deepest squads in the PREM.

The big question for Bath this season is their attack. It wasn’t so much that they were poor, but it didn’t quite fire last season as it did the season before. The departure of attack coach Lee Blackett to England was a big catalyst and Bath have recruited new assistant coach Mike Prendergast from Munster, but their new system will take a bit of time to bed in. This was seen to an extent in the opening week 31-15 away win at Harlequins.

Exeter meanwhile had a disappointing start to the season losing 24-45 at home to Gloucester who have recruited heavily during the summer.

Exeter bounced back last season from the worst top-flight campaign in their history in 2024-2025. They reached the Prem final for the first time since 2021. They have suffered a couple of major losses notably the Australian centre Len Ikitau has returned home.

Whilst Exeter are organised and exude a general energy and toughness that is enhanced by X-factor individuals their incomings this season represent “come and prove yourself” signings of younger players and if some work out as well as Andrea Zambonin, Bachuki Tchumbadze, Ethan Burger or Stehen Varney in recent seasons it will be a bonus.

In this high-scoring era it’s interesting to see Bath 15-point plus favourites, a quote thar reflects Exeter’s slow start last week but not their attacking potential under the sport’s current regulations too.

10 points Exeter Chiefs +15.5 points at 10/11 generally

Home Grown?

Stephen Fleming has been confirmed as the new England Men's Test head coach - but won't start the role until the South Africa series, which begins in December. Marcus Trescothick served as interim head coach for the three Pakistan Tests at the end of the Summer. Joe Root returns as the permanent Test captain.

Much of the comment upon Fleming’s appointment was negative for example that he  has no experience as a red-ball coach, that he didn't win any of his 14 Tests against Australia as New Zealand captain and that he is too close to Brendon McCullum.

Against that he was a calm and composed Test captain skipper, with a good tactical brain and became one of the highest regarded white ball coaches in the world. He’s won 5 IPL titles as coach.

Fleming’s appointment continues the overseas domination of the job. Since the Zimbabwean Duncan Fletcher was appointed in 1999, Englishmen have led the Test side for only five out of 27 years. Only two Englishmen have been appointed to the Test head coach role this century: Peter Moores, twice, and Chris Silverwood.

This century, England have won 23 Tests, and lost 24, with a homegrown coach. With overseas coaches, England have won 126 and lost 91: a win-loss ratio of 1.38, compared with 0.96 when an Englishman is in charge.

In choosing between Fleming and Richard Dawson, England were effectively deciding between a coach used to being watched by millions around the world, or one leading a side in front of crowds that are often shy of four figures. This contrast far outweighed Fleming’s lack of experience coaching in first-class cricket.

Other countries use their franchise tournaments to promote homegrown coaching talent. Five of the eight coaches in the last Big Bash were Australian; three of the six coaches in the last SA20 were South African, even with all sides affiliated to Indian Premier League ownership groups. Yet this path has largely been closed off to Englishmen. In six years of the competition, just three Englishmen have been a head coach in the Hundred. This season, just one Englishman is a head coach.

After welcoming private investment, the ECB no longer has any control at all over who is appointed to Hundred franchises. Foreign teams are no more receptive to Englishmen. In the last decade, only two English coaches Chris Silverwood, with Sri Lanka; and Jonathan Trott, with Afghanistan– have led an overseas Test side. In 18 years of the competition, no Englishman has been an IPL head coach.

The contrast with Australia, New Zealand and South Africa is chastening. Despite their population of five million, New Zealand’s current coaches include Mike Hesson, who oversaw the country’s rise after 2013 and is now Pakistan head coach, Dan Vettori, a respected franchise coach who was Australia’s assistant coach, Brendon McCullum, who initially reinvigorated England, and Fleming, the most successful IPL coach in history.

Vettori, McCullum and Fleming all captained New Zealand for extended periods. In English cricket, such figures seldom go into coaching. Instead, for financial reasons, former captains tend to gravitate towards the media. The economic clout of Sky Sports and other broadcasters means that English cricket hears from many leading minds, rather than being led by them.

Rob Key, England’s director of men’s cricket, has sought to accelerate the transition of ex-players into coaching. A series of prominent former players, including Andrew Flintoff, Graeme Swann and Moeen Ali, have been involved with England’s pathway in recent years.

Optically, England might have benefited from choosing a homegrown coach to replace McCullum. Fleming’s appointment is a tacit acceptance that the best man for the job is still not English. It will be a damning indictment of the national system if, when the role of Test head coach is next vacant, once again no Englishman is considered suitable.

Betting Emporium results

The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th September

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon, over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Nations League matches including England against Spain.
• Formula One, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku
• Cricket, England ODI against Sri Lanka at The Oval
• Golf, the Bank of Utah Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Alfred Dunhill Links on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP China and Japan Opens

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Free Tip

England Cricket ODI against Sri Lanka at The Oval Sunday 10.30am

The end of England’s International summer at the Oval on Sunday with the final match in a three-game ODI series, and a series decider too.

In game one at Durham on Tuesday England put up 265, bowled Sri Lanka out for 176 and at Leeds on Thursday Sri Lanka put up an atypical competitive score of 321-6 with the rarity of a top order century before England had the misfortune of a Buttler injury and the familiarity of a batting choke to lose by 16 runs. England needed 71 off the last 80 balls but managed only 54, with one four and one six, against the reversing old ball.

This series followed a 3-0 win in the T20 series that preceded these games. England are a less successful ODI side than they are a T20 team, where they now rank 1^st in the World rankings. England rank 7^th in ODIs, Sri Lanka 6^th.

This shouldn’t be a great surprise. The Hundred clashes with the domestic 50-over Metro Bank competition during the whole of August and outside Internationals no England players play the 50-over format at all, not that they are alone in that amongst international players. ODIs are a format struggling for relevancy in a world of lucrative T20 franchise competitions worldwide.

Bilateral ODIs are expected to see a further reduction in next schedule cycle as cricket struggles to fit all the various competitions into a calendar year.

That said, these games are part of the build-up to the October 2027 ODI World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia where the top 8 world ranked sides qualify alongside the three hosts and associate qualifiers.

It can certainly be argued that with the exception of Joe Root many England batsmen don’t play the ODI format properly, instead playing it as an elongated T20 and failing to build the big innings that win matches. Top order batsmen have more time to build those innings than they think, and teams seem to have moved away from the maxim that you can bat “properly” for 30 overs, keep wickets in hand and then double the 30 over total in the last 20.

In a top six of Banton and Duckett opening, Root, Brook, Buttler and Jacks it is not a surprise to see Root the 5/2 favourite in a market as follows:

Root 5/2

Brook 15/4

Duckett 4/1

Banton 5/1

Cox 15/2

Jacks 9/1

Brook top scored in the first game with a run-a-ball 67 batting first and there was an opening partnership of 143 in the second game, Banton top-scoring with 73.

This is a 10.30am start in late September. Likely to be a good toss to win and bowl.

The risk in selecting any player after the top four is that England might bat second and the Sri Lanka batting line-up in difficult conditions has been in no form at all until Thursday’s 321 on a flat one. T20 series totals were 145, 135 and 124 and 176 in the first ODI was below par.

If England bat first there is at least the chance of new ball wickets and numbers 4-5 getting a lot of the overs at the crease.

10 points Harry Brook top England run scorer at 15/4 Bet365, 11/4 William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral

Premier League Problems

The Premier League has a problem. The 20 clubs spent £3.2bn in the August transfer window. However the richest teams are ever more frequently plucking the best players from the rest of the division.

There were 12 instances in the summer transfer window of one of the ‘Big Six’ acquiring players from the other 14 clubs in the top tier including Bruno Guimaraes, Morgan Rogers, Elliot Anderson, Tonali, Maxence Lacroix, Jan Paul van Hecke, Youri Tielemans, Danny Welbeck and Marcos Senesi.

The trend is rapidly intensifying. This flow of transfers is at an all-time high, even as middling to lower-end Premier League teams enjoy greater wealth than ever.

Last summer, 11 players moved from a non ‘Big Six’ club to a ‘Big Six’ one, with all six of the latter getting in on the act. In January, Manchester City’s signings of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi, the best players at Bournemouth and Crystal Palace respectively, took the 2025-26 tally to 13. That was a new record and only once before has the number of moves hit double figures. That came in 2014-15.

Naturally, that has conferred significant financial benefit to the selling clubs. Those 25 transfers have come at a combined cost of almost £1.2bn

Those sums allow sellers to reinvest in talent from elsewhere, improving as a result. Combined with more money than ever from domestic prize-money distributions, the Premier League’s middle has probably never been stronger. Repeated English wins in the finals of the Europa League and UEFA Conference League speak to that.

Yet there’s also a growing inevitability to those clubs losing their stars to domestic rivals, an event occurring far more frequently than before and which further solidifies the hierarchical structure of English football.

Most pilfered of anyone in recent seasons are Brighton & Hove Albion, where, since the summer of 2021, 10 players have departed for a ‘Big Six’ club. Five of these (Moises Caicedo, Marc Cucurella, Joao Pedro, Robert Sanchez and now Welbeck) went to Chelsea. 

Why the intensification? One reason is obvious: the rich clubs are richer than ever.

In 2024-25, the average turnover of a ‘Big Six’ club was £635m and this in a year where three of them didn’t play in the Champions League. The average turnover at the remaining 14 Premier League teams that season was £214m, a gap of £421m.

Since Covid-19, average revenues among the ‘Big Six’ have increased by £189m, more than three times the increase at other Premier League clubs. The elite can now offer far more, both in wages and trophy-hunting opportunities. 

Compounding the issue are football’s financial rules.  Squad cost ratio (SCR)  has established a new trading dynamic for less wealthy clubs: sell, sell, sell.

For the mid-ranking teams with low revenue and relatively high costs on transfer fees and wages  the danger posed by SCR was obvious. It placed a limit on spending relative to revenue (85%) that afforded them much less room to manoeuvre. In Uefa competitions, SCR is even tighter: just 70% of turnover can be spent on fees, wages, bonuses, agents and all the associated costs.

It is that which has helped drive the frenzy this summer: £3.5bn spent in the window, and of that 31.6bn between Premier League clubs. SCR means that clubs who do not traditionally generate big revenues up around the £700m mark of the big six need to sell players to get their costs. For those who are also in Europe: Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa operating under Uefa sanctions  the squeeze was even tighter.

The activity erves as a further threat to competitive balance in a division where scarcely anyone stands a chance of winning the title in the first place.

Selling clubs have more money in their pockets than ever, but consistently replacing your best players is no easy feat, not least when everyone now knows you’re flush with cash. Behind Brighton, the other two most devoured by the ‘Big Six’ in the past decade are Leicester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers. They have lost six players each to the division’s richest since 2017 and, tellingly, both have been relegated in recent years and now play outside the Premier League.

In a fair sporting world, clubs with inefficient recruitment operations would be overtaken by smarter efforts, like those showcased at Brighton. In the world we actually live in, the richer teams take their best players off them year after year, reinforcing a glass ceiling which dictates that, for most clubs, finishing sixth or seventh is about as good as it will now get.

Betting Emporium results

The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th September

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Chester, Newbury and Newmarket and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Brighton v Arsenal
• Cricket, T20 International Series England v Sri Lanka
• Golf, the President’s Cup on the USPGA Tour and the French Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Hangzhou and Chengdu Opens

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Free Tip

Cricket: England v Sri Lanka ODI Saturday 2.30pm Old Trafford

England face Sri Lanka in three end season T20s and three ODIs. This is the third T20 match following the first two matches at Southampton and Cardiff.

England are the second world ranked T20 side, Sri Lanka 9^th and the first two games of the series were as one-sided as these rankings suggest. England smashed 254 and won by 119 runs on Southampton then chased 145 in 12 overs to win in Cardiff. England have now won 22 matches in their last 25 T20I games. 

With no international T20 competition until the 2028 World Cup in Australasia this is a chance to introduce new players to Brendon McCullum’s squad. Jacob Bethell (knee), Sam Curran (groin) and Phil Salt (quad) staples of the first choice squad are injured. England called up uncapped Derbyshire batter Aneurin Donald and Sussex seam bowler Henry Crocombe. Donald scored 489 runs, including four half-centuries, across 12 matches in this summer's Vitality Blast. He also hit the most sixes with 37.

The batting order in the first two games, with top England batsman odds for this third game, was as follows:

Buttler 13/5

Brook 3/1

Donald 4/1

Banton 5/1

Jacks 6/1

Cox 8/1

Against inferior opposition it might be a stretch to expect the likes of Jacks and Cox, two hard-hitting explosive batsmen to get much time at the crease in this game batting 5 and 6.

For a newbie, albeit opening the batting, 3/1 feels short for Donald and although Banton top scored in Cardiff he doesn’t yet have the pedigree of Buttler/Brook or sufficient of a price premium to consistently back him coming to the crease after the big two.

At Southampton Buttler and Brook dominated. Buttler smashed 80 off 44 balls and Brook 114* off 49 balls.

Buttler is now 36 but his role is undiminished. Since Harry Brook moved to bat at number 3 for England during the 2026 T20 World Cup, he's scored 476 T20I runs at95.20 with a strike rate of 200.84.

His last three innings in this international format before the Cardiff game were 79* off 35 balls, 95* off 45 balls and Tuesday’s 114*, totalling 288 from 129 balls before being dismissed for 23 off 8 balls on Thursday night. With his scoring firepower against over-powered opponents, especially if England bat first in Manchester, he is a solid bet.

10 points Harry Brook Top England batsman at 3/1 William Hill, 13/5 Bet365, Betfred  

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Scope

The 2026 Hundred ticket numbers were, according to the ECB as "a tiny bit down" whilst the growth in average broadcast audience on Sky Sports and BBC was 7.5%

The total number of tickets sold earlier this year was 550,000, the third-highest for a season of The Hundred and the highest of the competitions that haven't followed on the heels of a major England Men's Test series against India or Australia. The ECB believes the momentum from such series promotes ticket sales.

The tournament currently has a relatively narrow window of 27 days. The ECB has stated that the window will not be expanded after some players requested that a further week was allocated to the tournament. One forthcoming change may be that we may see is more standalone women's games.

There has been talk from some team owners that four home dates (albeit that means eight games split across four double-headers) in 27 days provides insufficient commercial opportunity and insufficient cricketing opportunity to recover from a poor start.

Next year the Hundred follows immediately after the Ashes, when cricket's profile is at its highest. New owners will have time to rectify any mistakes from this year. Team brands will be more familiar, and squad churn will be much lower, with franchises expected to be able to retain up to 16 players from their 2026 squads.

Whilst the tournament is never likely to appeal to cricket’s hard core, upset at the marginalisation of other domestic tournaments in the peak of the season, there is scope for it to continue to expand the market for cricket fans next year onwards.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th September

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bath, Chester, Doncaster and Musselburgh and on the all-weather at Lingfield.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
• Cricket, T20 International Series England v Sri Lanka
• NFL, Week One of the regular season
• Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid
• Golf, the Biltmore Championship on the USPGA Tour and the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Matches

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NFL 2026 

2026 Regular season package now available for £125 here including Week One recommendations for Sunday

Last year the package won 313 points with a ROI of 10% in the regular season.

A sample of a game write-up for this week is produced below.

Free Tip

NFL Week One

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers Sunday 6pm

The Bears profile as a potential offensive juggernaut and a “swinging-gate” defense. A potential “shoot-out” team.

Chicago improved its scoring by 7.5 points per game in 2025, finishing at 25.7 points per game in Ben Johnson’s first season. They’re projected for 24.5 points per game in 2026, 10th in the NFL. This is an offense we want exposure to.

In the off-season ahead of his second year as Head Coach Ben Johnson was quoted in an interview as having an ambition to have “the highest scoring offense ever!” (2013 Broncos, 37.9 points a game) which he followed with “I want shutouts. I want blowouts”. This might be an aggressive offense then! The Bears offense ran the most plays in the NFL last season and were top 5 in pace per play.

In Johnson’s first season the Bears had the third ranked rush offense, tenth ranked passing offense and sixth overall.

Considering their hosts here are Panthers with a potentially lacklustre offense the game points quote was higher than I expected at 47.5. The Bears are 2.5-point road favourites.

Let’s do the Panthers offense first. The match-up with last year’s 27^th ranked rush defense looks appetising, however the Panthers Head Coach has already stated that the Panthers running backs (Hubbard and Brooks) will operate in a 50-50% time share once both are fully fit, mirroring their approach with Hubbard and Dowdle last year. My chances of picking the right one are someone less than 50-50!

I’m taking a watching brief on the Panthers passing offense, ranked 26^th last season though again the match-up is good, the Bears pass defense ranked 20^th last season and brings back 10 of 11 starters.

Turning to the other side of the ball the obvious place to look is that Bears rushing offense.

Last season D’Andre Swift had a career high 223 carries for 1087 yards and 9 touchdowns, spelled by rookie Kyle Monangai, who has missed training camp with an injury and might not be fully involved here. Against a run defense that ranked 21^st last season Swift should be one of the bankers of the week.

There is a Swift alternative too. With DJ Moore leaving behind 85 targets having left for the Bills, Swift’s receiving yards quote is over/under 13.5 receiving yards. Caleb Williams targeted his running backs 79 times in 2025 at 4.1 targets per game. Panthers allowed 4.4 receptions per game and 28.7 receiving yards to running backs. Swift averaged 17.6 receiving yards per game in 2025.

In the passing game (against a 2025 14^th ranked Carolina pass defense) there are multiple options. First things first the Bears drafted a Tight End Sam Roush in the third round of the most recent draft and potentially can play more 1-2 and 1-3 formations this season.

Their leading Tight End Colston Loveland runs routes like a wide receiver and is an obvious anytime touchdown scorer proposition going into this his second season.

For the leading wide receivers we need to consider Odunze and Burden but bear in mind that the Bears might be using more formations where fewer wide receivers are on the field.

Odunze might miss this game, he’s been missing practices with an undisclosed injury. opened the 2025 season with a bang, scoring five touchdowns in his first four games and then went on to deliver one touchdown over his next eight games prior to missing Weeks 14 through 18 due to injury. On the plus side, Odunze remained heavily targeted throughout the season, especially near the goal line, and he is ninth in the NFL with 24 end zone targets since he was drafted. On the other hand, his connection with Caleb Williams needs work, as his 48% catch rate ranked near the basement at the position.

Burden led the Bears in explosive plays last year as a part-time player. He averaged 96 yards game when he had just a 25% first read target rate and his role is about to expand, and I think he is the more interesting of the two starting receivers and likely to be the focal point of the passing offense.

10 points Colston Loveland anytime touchdown scorer at 9/5 Betfred, 17/10 William Hill, 8/5 Bet365

From paradox to winner

For 18 IPL seasons, Royal Challengers Bengaluru were cricket's ultimate paradox.

They had Virat Kohli, A B de Villiers and Chris Gayle but their trophy cabinet was bare.

They have since won two IPL trophies in two years.

The foundations of this success were laid long before the 2025 win when RCB started building a system.

The arrival of Mo Bobat as Director of Cricket and Andy Flower as Head Coach transformed the franchise from a collection of stars into a coherent cricketing organisation. For years, RCB's auction strategy appeared reactive and emotional. But this duo's approach is 'consider the larger picture'. The 2025 mega auction became the defining moment. While rival teams splurged heavily on marquee names, RCB focused on balance: Josh Hazlewood, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Krunal Pandya, Jacob Duffy, Rasikh Salam Dar.

RCB's reputation as a dysfunctional, superstar-driven franchise prone to emotional decision-making has completely transformed.

The 2026 title was built on bowling.

In the final, Gujarat Titans never recovered after being restricted to 155 for 8. Rasikh Salam Dar produced figures of 3 for 27. Bhuvneshwar Kumar chipped in with 2 for 29. Josh Hazlewood claimed 2 for 37. Krunal Pandya squeezed the middle overs.

Hazlewood, Bhuvneshwar and Duffy brought experience. Rasikh brought youthful energy. Krunal delivered control. Every role clearly defined. That clarity separated RCB from the rest of the competition.

For much of the previous decade, if Kohli failed, RCB often struggled. Today, they possess multiple match-winners in Tim David, Romario Shepherd, Krunal, Jitesh Sharma, Phil Salt, Venkatesh Iyer.

Kohli still topped RCB's scoring charts with 675 runs, but he did so as part of a functioning collective rather than carrying the team on his shoulders.

Captaining a franchise with Kohli's stature in the dressing room is no easy task. Yet Rajat Patidar has managed the transition impressively. His leadership has been understated but effective. RCB's tactical clarity, consistency in selection and calmness under pressure reflect strong leadership.

The franchise has won 28 of its last 38 completed matches. Perhaps the most overlooked factor behind RCB's success has been selection consistency. Unlike many franchises, RCB resisted the temptation to constantly shuffle personnel. They used only 16 players throughout the tournament.

The obvious question now is whether RCB can become the first IPL team to win three consecutive titles. History is proof that dominance in the IPL is temporary. The Mumbai Indians looked invincible after winning five titles. Chennai Super Kings have repeatedly rebuilt successful teams but they languish at the bottom of the table. The auction system exists specifically to prevent dynasties in a league whose rules are specifically designed to ensure competitive balance. Injuries happen. Form fluctuates. Rivals improve.

Yet this is a franchise with structure and clarity. A franchise that has won 22 of 31 matches across two title-winning seasons. A franchise with a world-class management group that has a chance to be the IPL’s next great team.

Betting Emporium results

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th September

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Thirsk, over the jumps as Stratford and on the all-weather at Kempton and Newcastle.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Chelsea
• Cricket, England v Pakistan test at Edgbaston next week
• Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix
• Golf, the Biltmore Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Irish Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, the US Open continues

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NFL 2026 

2026 Regular season package now available for £125 here 

Last year the package won 313 points with a ROI of 10% in the regular season.

Published last week: Ante-Post Player markets. 10+ bets including recommendations at 16/1,33/1 and 50/1

First week one write-up, Patriots at Seahawks out Tuesday

Free Tip

South Africa v New Zealand Third Test, Johannesburg, Saturday 4.10pm

With the series now tied  at 1-1 the four-test “Greatest Rivalry” Series now moves to Soccer city, Soweto after South Africa’s 33-26 win in Cape Town last weekend.

For all the South African team selection shenanigans last week, with a team named on Monday, two changes on Friday with Pollard out and Kolbe in then changing the entire front row an hour before kick-off (in all 5 changes from the original team named at the beginning of the week) perhaps the biggest difference between the two Tests were the bench selections notably the introduction of Malcolm Marx and Ox Nche before half-time as the duo combined with Du Toit to earn the first penalty at scrum time in the game. They re-packed the set-piece, gained dominance and an advantage which ultimately led to Kolisi’s try.

South Africa were leading 24-14 at Half-Time and then 30-14 with 20 minutes to go only for two late New Zealand tries to take them within the +7.5-point spread at the start of the game. New Zealand scored more tries than South Africa for a second game in a row, four, but struggled against the rush defense, in the breakdowns and the lineouts.

This series is a real clash of styles. South Africa are strong attacking between the 15 metre lines and New Zealand are searching for the space outside.

After being ruthless in attack in Johannesburg, New Zealand were far more wasteful in Cape Town, averaging 2.8 points per entry into South Africa’s 22 down from 3.6 points per entry the week before.

All three of South Africa’s tries followed a similar theme: dominance in the set-piece: the first two being the lineout and maul, whilst the third was in the scrum.

It was the lineouts where the All Blacks malfunctioned at critical moments. Three attacking throw-ins by the All Blacks were spoiled by Eben Etzebeth, who made one steal. South Africa’s first two tries were platformed by lineout mauls.

New Zealand also needs to deal more effectively with the South Africa kicking game and the ball in the air in generally.

Faced again this weekend with this clash of styles South Africa are priced up again at -7.5. It’s expected to be a dry day, which helps New Zealand. Deciding which side of the quote to recommend depends on two things. Can New Zealand manage South Africa’s power to restrict their points from a set piece platform and can they be more clinical, as in the first test, when they stretch South Africa wide.

“We lost the battlebut we have not lost the war,” All Blacks captain Ardie Savea said immediately after last week’s game. I tend to agree.

10 points New Zealand +7.5-points at 10/11 generally  

Where next for the England rugby team?

After England’s heavy defeat against South Africa in the first round of the new Nations Championship they had lost five consecutive Tests. Fiji and Argentina

This poor run comes four years and 46 Tests after Steve Borthwick was appointed as the stability candidate, replacing Eddie Jones, as Head Coach, and in the last year there is frustration that Borthwick’s vision has not been realised. England have lurched from a kick-heavy game plan to one on moving the ball wide, often at the tail end of strategies from other teams during the same. There is a clear view that he looks at data and reacts, and doesn’t create his own innovations, a clear echo of South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus’ summation that Borthwick “chases trends”.

 Many watchers contrast watching the Gallagher Prem (particularly the Northampton Saints) with England. It’s as in England training camp that the players are told to leave their creativity behind with game plans that restrict flair.

On a long term perspective this dysfunctionality and disappointment has come as a surprise. Borthwick is clearly a talented coach,his work as an assistant with England and the British & Irish Lions, and his Prem title win with Leicester Tigers suggested as much when he was appointed. Borthwick can take credit credit for appointing Lee Blackett and Kevin Sinfield to make up for his own lack of charisma, but three issues return time and again.

Firstly, the rapid departures of Felix Jones and Aled Walters. The concern being that world-class coaches had to leave because they felt stifled. Many want the RFU to appoint Shaun Edwards, now he has left France, at least for “positive PR”.

Secondly, and this is a problem that goes beyond Borthwick, many are desperate to see Jack Willis, and his brother Tom, in an England shirt, and want the RFU to change its eligibility criteria. Jack I n particular is probably the pre-eminent loose forward in the Northern Hemisphere, now Toulouse captain, and would walk into the team if he didn’t play abroad.

Thirdly there is a clear lack of depth at key positions notably 1-2-3,12 and 13 and 15 that saw England take the field in Johannesburg with a Lilliputian back three of Smith, Murley and Feyi-Waboso with Steward, Furbank injured and Freeman pushed inside. No wonder they were comprehensively beaten in the aerial game.

Commentators do not believe Borthwick knows his best team, but are happy that he has handed debuts to young players like Henry Pollock, Fin Smith and Guy Pepper but the English pathway and club-country Professional Game Partnership seems deficient.

We’ve got a favourable World Cup draw in 20276 but the fear is that it will be wasted with this squad and coach, and it could well be that the RFU pulls the pin on Borthwick with a year to go

Betting Emporium results