The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr, Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket and Redcar.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages continue
• Cricket, the third England New Zealand Test at Trent Bridge next Wednesday
• Rugby Union, the Gallagher PREM Grand Final at Twickenham
• Golf, the Travelers Championship on the USPGA and the Italian Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Eastbourne and Wimbledon qualifying.

Free Tip

Gallagher Prem final Northampton v Exeter, Saturday 3pm Twickenham

Last weekend the Exeter Chiefs became the first team to finish third in the regular season league table and make the play-off final since 2010.

They did so by coming back from 26-10 down at half time to last season’s Champions Bath to win 27-26, defending for an incredible 43 phases on their line at the end of the game (Bath didn’t attempt a drop goal, curious!)

This was the first Prem play-off win by an away team in five years. Exeter still haven’t lost a semi-final and they went off +9.5 points, winning by a point despite missing two kickable conversions for another four points.

Bath away was clearly a tough challenge, now comes the best team of the current season the Northampton Saints, scores of 38 points a game in the regular season and 14-point winners over Leicester in their semi-final scoring 45 points and scoring six tries. Concidentally, this is a final between eighth and ninth in last year’s league.

Nobody in the European leagues scores tries like Northampton. With one game to go they are in pole position to finish ahead of all others in the try scoring ranks this season:

Northampton, played 24, 144 tries, average 5.76 a game

Toulouse played 32, 169 tries, average 5.28

Bordeaux played 34, 163 tries, average 4.8

Leinster played 28, 120 tries, average 4.28

Fortunately for Exeter, potentially, Northampton have a weakness. Just looking at these two teams, Northampton have conceded 536 points in 18 Prem matches, Exeter just 367. Particularly in the second half of the season Exeter have developed the firepower out wide and   at full strength at front the platform to get quick ball for them. The excellent overseas recruitment of Hooper and Ikitau from Australis, in particular, have elevated the side into a real contender.

Northampton clearly should be favourites and indeed are -6.5, a line that soon moved to -7.5 points and went back again midweek. This line provides an opportunity to go for the column hat-trick on Exeter in what could and should be a high scoring match.

10 points Exeter Chiefs +7.5 points at 10/11 generally

Destinations

The British & Irish Lions have taken a step towards changing their established touring schedule by exploring new destinations including France, the Americas and Japan.

Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have hosted on a quadrennial rotation since 1989 but the Lions are assessing the viability of altering that pattern and bringing other locations into the mix. The prospect of a full tour to France was raised officially 18 months ago.

However any move to visit the southern hemisphere giants once every 16, not 12, years would be met with a negative reaction in Australia, South Africa and New Zealand.

It is likely that those Sanzaar unions, particularly New Zealand and South Africa, would threaten to pull out of November tours to the northern hemisphere. At present, the revenue generated by those autumn matches hosted by the Six Nations countries is not shared with their southern hemisphere counterparts.

There is a suggestion, therefore, that the All Blacks and Springboks could pivot to exploring further money-making Tests in the United States, such as their “Greatest Rivalry” fourth Test in Baltimore this year, if the Lions threatened their financial futures by extending the gaps between their touring visits, which provide huge cash injections.

They will consider alterations to the host allocation model, for instance whether it becomes a 16-year rotation with an additional destination (eg France, Japan or Argentina) integrated alongside the existing three to significantly increase revenue, margin and profit from each tour. The Lions are expected to play France in a one-off match before the 2029 New Zealand tour.

The news is sure to cause a stir among the Sanzaar nations of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa given the importance of Lions tours to their financial security. Rugby Australia posted a record annual profit of AUS $70.6million (£37.4million) from Lions year, which compared to a $36.8million loss the previous year.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages are underway including England v Croatia next midweek
• Formula One, the Catalunya Grand Prix in Barcelona
• Rugby Union, the Gallagher Prem Play-Off semi-finals
• Cricket, the second England New Zealand Test at The Oval next Wednesday
• Golf, the US Open at Shinnecock Hills.
• Tennis, ATP HSBC Championships at Queens

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026

Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next week here

Free Tip

Gallagher Prem Play Offs: Semi-Final. Bath v Exeter Saturday 3pm

Last year’s play-off winners Bath secured second place in the regular season league table with a 24-22 win over the Leicester Tigers last weekend and therefore have home advantage here. That win was achieved despite the resting of Finn Russell at fly-half.

Exeter hosted Saracens in the final week of the season, a knock-out game for the final play-off spot. They survived a nervy first half performance to pull away in the second half and win comfortably 32-12. With Leicester’s loss and a bonus point for scoring four tries, Exeter climbed into third place, sending Leicester to Northampton this Friday night and Exeter to Bath on Saturday.

This is Exeter’s first play-off berth for five years since their championship winning sides of the pre-Covid seasons. Two things have happened for this team relative to their previous strong teams. This team is more expansive, and certainly in the second half of the season has the firepower to compete with the best sides. Previously they were an attritional side based off forward power. Secondly owner investment has helped the recruitment of Australians Ken Ikitau, Scott Sio and Tom Hooper and Italian Andrea Zambonin alongside a lot of young talent coming through their system.

In all probability it’s a year too early to expect Exeter to win the Prem by getting past both Bath and (probably) Northampton but they’ll certainly be very competitive this weekend. In the history of these semi-finals in the Prem play-offs 80% of games have been won by the home side. Bath are 8.5-point favourites at home, and getting more than a score (seven points for a converted try) on the visitors appeals, with the slight concern reflected in a lower bet size than last week that their “cup final” was last week

10 points Exeter Chiefs +8.5 points at Bath at 10/11 generally

Billions

After the pre-season investment into Newcastle rugby by Red Bull, the season just finished has seen multiple investments into Prem rugby sides by investors from outside the sport including James Dyson at Bath and financier Steve Zander at Northampton, followed by the Exeter Chiefs subject to a takeover from Bill Foley, owner of AFC Bournemouth and the Vegas Golden Knights NHL franchise.

It has long been predicted that the adoption of the no-relegation policy and moving towards a franchise model familiar in US sports would attract capital from outside rugby as the sport modernises with new TV rights included.

Meanwhile change is being seen at the player level too. Finn Russell has joined Henry Pollock in signing with Barry Hearn’s Matchroom Entertainment and is described modestly on the talent agency’s website as the “Lionel Messi of Rugby”. 

 The previous club owners and this season’s sellers have funded professional rugby in England to the tune of accumulated losses of roughly £1bn over the past 30 years. Now the sport needs to secure prospects for sides below the top rank and the grass roots as well as the elite.

The newly arrived owners are the beneficiaries of the Professional Game Partnership, which was agreed between the Rugby Football Union and the Premiership in 2024. It governs the relationship for the next six years and the clubs are effectively subsidised by the RFU for providing the England team with its players. This was vital for the stability of the English professional game when it was still losing money.

With the introduction of billionaire owners and money rolling in that agreement no longer makes sense for the good of the English game. It should be reviewed and the money contributed by the RFU should be redirected to the grass-roots game.

The 2025-26 domestic season was unsatisfactory in several respects, largely due to the poor performance of the bottom four of a ten team league. This reached a head in April when Saracens scored 85 points against Sale, Bath scored 48 against Harlequins, Bristol racked up 53 against Gloucester, and Leicester put 62 on Newcastle Red Bulls.

A variety of suggestions have been made to improve the competitiveness of a now closed league. One is to change the current bonus point system and adopt the one used in the French league and in Super Rugby, where a team must score three tries more than the opposition, rather than just simply scoring four times, to earn a bonus point. It forces dominant teams to play for the full 80 minutes and losing sides can rob them of a bonus point if they play at full pelt throughout. 

There is also dissatisfaction with the play-off system which this season resulted in the last third of the season lacking jeopardy at the top end with the top four well clear. You wonder if a season ending at the end of the regular season would be preferable to some sides cruising until the knockout rounds.

The fact teams in the Prem can be so bad and still qualify for the Champions Cup feels strange. Why not make the Champions Cup more elite, with fewer, better teams and do the same for the Challenge Cup? Then, for the real stragglers, no European competition at all. The incentive of European rugby and the money it brings would surely tell. It is hardly an original observation that having eight out of 10 teams qualify for the “Champions” Cup is too many.  Restricting the number to six would make the bottom half of the table far more competitive during the business end of the season. The issue, of course, is that this is almost impossible, given the Champions Cup in its current state is a 24-team league, with eight sides apiece from the Prem, France and the United Rugby Championship.

True competitiveness in a league with no relegation without full blooded moves to a US franchise system is unlikely as rugby lacks the elements that help the US leagues maintain parity, the NFL, NBA and MLB drafts which ensure the best young talent can help turn the worst teams round.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Chepstow, Doncaster, Epsom, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages begin next week
• Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix in Barcelona
• Cricket, the first England/New Zealand Test at Lords continues
• Golf, the Canadian Open on the USPGA Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Libema and Stuttgart Opens

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026

Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival in ten days time here

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Exeter v Saracens 3.15pm Saturday

The final round of the regular season this weekend with one of four play-off spots unresolved and the two teams in contention, Exeter in 4^th and Saracens in 5^th play each other in what should be a barn-stormer between two teams who dislike each other, a legacy of their close competition half a decade ago and Saracens relegation for salary cap irregularities.

Exeter won the then Premiership in 2020 and finished 2^nd in 2021 before falling to the bottom half of the table in subsequent seasons with finishes of 7^th, 7^th,7^th and 9^th in the last four years

This year has seen a renaissance, borne partly of excellent recruitment (Ikitau and Hooper from Australia notably, Zambonin from Italy too) and partly a more expansive playing style whereas previously they relied on forward strength and the close-quarters game. England winger Manny Feyi-Waboso was unplayable last week as the cutting edge of that more exciting approach.

Last weekend Exeter became first team to win at Leicester since March 2025 with a 35-26 win. Now two points behind Leicester in 3^rd place and with Leicester travelling to Bath this weekend Exeter have a good shot at 3^rd place for the play-offs and avoiding Northampton who have secured top spot. This is Saracens coach Mark McCall’s last regular season game after 17 years and 15 years since Saracens’ first title. After their relegation to the Championship in 2021 they rebounded to win the Premiership in 2022 before finishing 3^rd,4^th and 6^th in the last three years.

This season saw a poor run during the mid-season but they are ending the year strongly, currently on a five-game winning run. A later win over Harlequins at home last weekend mean they go into this game three points behind Exeter in fifth place, certainly needing to go to Exeter and win, probably denying Exeter a bonus point and scoring one of their won too to make the post-season.

In the midst of a very gradual rebuild (Saracens can still field Itoje, George, Earl, calling on Farrell off the bench) Saracens have introduced young talent into the team over the last 18 months notably winger Noah Caluori and scrum-half Charlie Bracken.

I expect Exeter to win this game at home and they began the weekpriced as 1.5-point underdogs (Evens outright, 8/11 Saracens) I thought those prices were the wrong way round, and indeed we now see Exeter -1.5 and 8/11 outright.

15 points Exeter to beat Saracens -1.5 points at 10/11 generally

Stay of execution

Wales will continue to have four professional rugby teams for at least the next two seasons after a bid by Ospreys’ owners to buy Cardiff from the Welsh Rugby Union fell through in April.

Cardiff will remain under WRU ownership and Ospreys will continue with plans to play at the St Helen’s cricket ground in Swansea, after a collapse in the deal between Y11 Sport & Media and the WRU.

Ospreys are now expected to sign the 2025 Professional Rugby Agreement, a deal between the WRU and the four teams over distribution of finances, which they and Scarlets refused to do last year amid fears that Cardiff would be receiving preferential treatment at the expense of the other three teams.

If Y11 had purchased Cardiff it might have provided a convenient solution to the WRU’s problem of needing to lose a team, as has been its stated aim since last autumn. That proposal has been met with fierce opposition, but the WRU insists it will, by June, still confirm a strategy for reducing the four regional teams to three.

it is no coincidence that this statement was released only a couple of days before Cardiff and Ospreys met in the United Rugby Championship at the Arms Park, with Ospreys clearly appearing a lot more confident of their future than the WRU’s published words. “This now secures the Ospreys’ future into the 2030s,” said a statement from Swansea council.

At least now the WRU will invest the £28m it has earmarked for improvement of its pathways and academies over the next five years, which is a crucial development, given that the production line of world-class players has dried up since the disbanding of a national academy in 2015.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th-31st May

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Beverley, Catterick, Chester, Haydock and Lingfield and over the jumps at Stratford-on-Avon.
• Cricket, the IPL final and the first England v New Zealand test match next week at Lords
• Golf, the Memorial Tournament on the USPGA Tour and the KLM Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, the French Open continues

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026

Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next month here

Free Tip

IPL Qualifier 2 Friday 3pm, Chandigarh

Gujarat Titans v Rajasthan Royals

Effectively the semi-final of this year’s IPL, the Qualifier 2 game on Friday sees the loser of Qualifier 1 between 1^st and 2^nd in the league table (the Titans) play the winner of Eliminator between 3^rd and 4th (the Royals) to play RCB in Sunday’s final.

In that former game Gujarat suffered a heavy loss to RCB as the defending Champions hit the highest team total in an IPL play-off game (254-5) to make their second final in a row. The day after Rajasthan followed up with 243-8 to continue this extremely high scoring tournament.

This match features the two top run scorers in the 2026 IPL. For Gujarat Sai Sudharsan is a technically correct top order batsman, not a big hitter as such but 29 sixes and 652 runs in 15 innings represents a third strong IPL tournament in a row opening alongside Shubman Gill with Jos Buttler in at 3. He is 9/4 favourite to be Gujarat top batsman in this match.

For the Rajasthan Royals we have a different matter entirely. 15-year-old Vaibhav Sooryavanshi has scored 680 runs and no less than 65 sixes in his 15 innings from just 280 balls. 65 sixes has broken Chris Gayle's record for the most sixes in an IPL season, 59, set in 2012. The talent is amazing, no doubt will be selected by India in shorter formats soon, and could be a staple of all their sides for 20 years plus if he continues developing at this pace. 

On Wednesday he came within one shot of beating Gayle's fastest IPL record (30 balls) only to be out for 97 off 29 balls. Opening the batting he has pulverised every attack he has faced especially in powerplays, and this season has set an IPL record of 490 of his runs in overs 1-6 beating David Warner’s 467 runs from 2016.

Sooryavanshi is available in a couple of places at 3/1 in the Rajasthan top batsman market, 5/2 is reasonable and more attainable.

10 points Vaibhav Sooryavanshi Top Rajasthan Royals batsman at 3/1 SkyBet, Paddy Power, 5/2 Betfred and Ladbrokes/Coral, 12/5 William Hill, 21/10 Bet365

Hundreds of Prospects

The 100-balls-per-innings format and abolition of six-ball overs were the most controversial elements of the Hundred when it was launched by the ECB four years ago and seem likely to change in due course. With four of the new investment groups already owners of Indian Premier League franchises, and another two involving Indian businessmen, there is a clear majority in favour of switching to Twenty20, the globally recognised short format.

The Hundred’s main broadcaster, Sky Sports, expressed reservations about moving to T20 when the idea was first floated two years ago and its contract runs until 2028, but the power of the new money may be enough to bring it around. The BBC would definitely prefer the shorter format as matches are easier to fit into their evening schedules, but the corporation is not contributing much to the £35m-a-year joint deal with Sky, so will have less influence.

Intriguingly, the name of the competition is unlikely to change even if the 100-ball format is dropped, as the ECB has spent more than £100 million marketing it in a bid to bring in a new younger audience, which has been largely successful.

All of the £520m-plus windfall handed over to the 18 first-class counties should ensure their financial health for a generation. The grassroots game received a £50m investment. Having been tied into ECB commercial contracts since the Hundred began in 2021, the franchises are now free to do their own deals, and given the ­contacts and expertise of many of the new investors, income levels are set to soar.

The so-called “tech titans” who have bought into London Spirit, for example, have secured a lucrative new kit deal with Nike that will begin this season, while Sun TV and Reliance Industries (part of the Oval Invincibles consortium and own Indian TV monolith JioStar) are already progressing new commercial deals.

In the short term at least most of the extra revenue will be spent on increasing the salary cap to attract better players in the hope of establishing the Hundred as the second-biggest short-form tournament after the IPL. The aspiration is to treble pay within the next few years. Recruiting Indian players would be a genuine gamechanger, but the Board of Control for Cricket in India is likely to continue blocking them from overseas competitions.

The investors secured a veto on expanding the competition to 10 teams, which has been mooted by the ECB, so while new teams in the North East and South West will not be added imminently the identities of some of the existing franchises differ from this season.

New names include the Manchester Super Giants with the Oval team rebranded as MI London, named after the Mumbai Indians, whose owners Reliance Industries Limited bought a 49% stake in the team.

The optics of an injured Ben Stokes pulling out of the Oval Test last year after bowling himself into the ground in a five-match series with India being crammed into 44 days to keep August free for the Hundred were awkward for the ECB, which has already acknowledged this error. With few England players and certainly no bowlers likely to take part in the Hundred this year the Test schedule has been changed and England will play two Tests against Pakistan during the competition.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th May

Coming Up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Goodwood, Haydock, Salisbury, Windsor and York and over the jumps at Bangor or Dee and Cartmel
• Premier League, Football League Play-Off Finals weekend
• Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final in Bilbao
• Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix
• Cricket, the IPL continues and the T20 Blast starts this weekend.
• Golf, the Charles Schwab Challenge on the USPGA Tour and the Austrian Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, the French Open

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026

Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next month here