Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th August
Coming up this weekend:
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.
- Football, the Premier League season starts on Friday night with Liverpool hosting AFC Bournemouth.
- Cricket, the 2025 Hundred competition continues.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship: South Africa v Australia and Argentina v New Zealand.
- Golf, The Tour Championship on the USPGA Tour and the British Masters on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Winston-Salem Open.
York Ebor Festival
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2025 NFL Season
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Free Tip
The Rugby Championship
Round One South Africa v Australia, Johnanesburg 4.10pm Saturday
Current Rugby Championship winners South Africa host Australia for the opening two rounds of the 2025 tournament in Johannesburg and Cape Town with the All Blacks heading to South America to face Argentina to open the competition. South Africa will then hit the road taking on the All Blacks in New Zealand while the Wallabies will return home to host Argentina.
The Springboks are currently the number one world ranked side. They have sealed back-to-back Rugby World Cups and followed up that success in 2023 with an impressive 2024, winning 11 of their 13 matches including five of their Rugby Championship six matches while the Wallabies will be determined to build on their final Lions Test win and redeem themselves from last year's Rugby Championship where they finished with just one victory.
This will be the last tournament before the beginning of the Nations Championship in July 2026 involving 16 teams worldwide which will see the Rugby Championship move to a biennial basis.
Outright odds for the 2025 edition are as follows:
New Zealand 5/6
South Africa 11/8
Australia 9/1
Argentina 25/1
New Zealand are favourites as they have two home games against South Africa in rounds 3 and 4, hence the tougher task for South Africa this year compared to last.
Australia were certainly under-cooked at the start of the Lions series and improved markedly in the second half of the series with the introduction of three forwards Skelton, Valetini and Tupou central to winning physical battles up front.
Unlike in the first test in Brisbane where they found fire only when 24-5 down, or the second test in Melbourne where they let the initiative slip when leading 23-5, in the Sydney third test the Wallabies showed a ruthless edge leading for all 80 minutes, albeit the terrible weather was a huge leveller in terms of any side being able to come back from an early deficit which the Lions had to do.
For this game Australia will be without the two first choice fly-halves with Tom Lynagh ruled out with a concussion and Noah Lolesio out for the season with a neck injury sustained in the Fiji Test in July. They also lose the preferred scrumhalf Jake Gordon to the hamstring twinges that cost him an appearance in the third Test.
That means the attack in South Africa will again fall to an unfamiliar combination. 35-year-old James O’Connor is in at fly-half for his first appearance since 2022 having rekindled his career with the Crusaders in New Zealand. Scrum half Nic White was due to retire post-Sydney but is needed for at least this game against the Springboks.
The key to South Africa’s success in the 2024 Rugby Championship were the two home victories over New Zealand 31-27 and 18-12. Last month at home they eased to two victories against Italy and one over Georgia and have been in training camp since.
Given their massive player depth and forward strength (all the big guns Nche, Marx, Etzebeth, Du Jager, Kolisi, Du Toit etc have been selected) and with the first game at altitude (although Australia have been in Johannesburg for a fortnight prior to the game) this is a huge step up for Australia compared to the Lions Tests. Bar Handre Pollard, the suspended Jasper Wiese and backs Damian de Allende and Cheslin Kolbe who have been given another week to recover it’s a first choice South Africa side and the visitors will need to replicate their approach that proved successful in Sydney of quick line speed and dominant tackles merely to be competitive. Fall off this and the game might be quite one-sided.
Australia went off for the three Lions Tests at +12 +8 and +8 and covered all three times. The step up here is obvious and the market recognises this, Australia are +18.5 in Johannesburg and the spread has risen from the first published lines. That’s a huge spread for a South Africa side playing their first really competitive game for nine months though.
South Africa will win, but I like Australia to cover.
10 points Australia +18.5 points at 10/11 generally
Clubbed.
The ECB is exploring the viability of a revamped "World Club Championship" for T20 cricket, more than a decade on from the final edition of the defunct Champions League T20 (CLT20).
Several countries have launched new short-form leagues in the last five years, including England (The Hundred), South Africa (SA20), the UAE (ILT20) and the United States (MLC). Global club-based tournaments are also emerging in other sports: football's expanded 32-team Club World Cup recently was one, and rugby union will launch its own Club World Cup in 2028.
The ECB are interested in the idea of bringing a CLT20-style event back to life with a global tournament that could add context to the recent proliferation of franchise cricket seen as the next logical step in the sport's evolution.
The CLT20, which ran from 2009-14, was run by the BCCI, Cricket Australia and Cricket South Africa, and was discontinued after six seasons. Organisers cited a limited public following as the primary reason for its demise, and the tournament struggled commercially despite initially securing a lucrative broadcast deal.
The ECB was not actively involved in the governance of the CLT20 and English teams did not take part in the final two editions due to a clash with the final stages of the County Championship season. Finding a suitable window in cricket's packed global calendar is among the biggest challenges in relaunching a similar tournament.
A World Club Championship would also require significant buy-in from Indian franchises: eight of the 10 IPL owners and four of the five WPL owners have interests in short-form leagues outside India. England would likely be represented by the winners of the Hundred, rather than the T20 Blast, if the event were to go ahead.
Last year Guyana launched a 'Global Super League' which brings together teams from five different leagues. The second edition of the tournament took place last month featuring the champions of three global leagues, Australia’s Big Bash League, New Zealand's Super Smash and the UAE's ILT20 but remains invitation-only.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.
- Football, the Premier League season starts next Friday night with Liverpool hosting AFC Bournemouth.
- Cricket, the 2025 Hundred competition continues.
- Golf, The BMW Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Danish Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, The ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati continues
York Ebor Festival
We have added York Ebor Festival - Full Package (20th - 23rd August 2025) to our homepage here
2025 NFL Season
We have added the NFL 2025: 17 week regular season. Just £99 & includes the antepost which will be published later in August. Subscribe here
Free Tip
Cricket The Hundred: Oval Invincibles v Manchester Originals Saturday 2.30pm.
The fourth year of the ECB’s new franchise competition the Hundred began earlier this week. A reminder about the format. Eight teams in a 32 match Group stage running through August. Each team plays four home and four away matches with the top three teams competing in the knockout stages where second and third placed teams compete to play the top league finisher in the final.
Changes are afoot in The Hundred with six of the eight teams now having received huge foreign owner investment, the remaining two sides still to complete, with name changes, high profile new players and possible format changes all likely for 2026 onwards.
The Oval Invincibles host this match and are defending two-time Champions whilst the Manchester Originals were runners-up in 2022 and 2023 but only won one of eight games last year.
Teams draft domestic and overseas players (three overseas players allowed in each starting XI) within salary bands including marquee players and from year to year the draft allows teams to address weaknesses and become much more competitive quickly. More of that in a minute as it could be crucial this year for the Manchester Originals who I have backed before the tournament at 11/2 each-way to win the 2025 edition.
First the Invincibles (a core of Surrey/Kent players) who have lost two key overseas bowlers from last year, the Australians Adam Zampa and Spencer Johnson. Leg-spinner Zampa was the top wicket-taker in the tournament in 2024 with 19 wickets. Replacing Zampa this year is Rashid Khan and replacing Johnson is Jason Behrendorff.
The domestic line-up though is probably the strongest in the tournament led by Sam Curran (17 wickets last year), Will Jacks, Sam Billings, Jordan Cox and Gus Atkinson with lots of franchise experience worldwide and high strike-rate batting potential.
Manchester Originals (Lancashire players augmented from elsewhere) feature Jos Buttler and Phil Salt up top (Salt’s 228 runs last year were third highest in the tournament in a poor team) with new domestic arrivals Lewis Gregory (Somerset’s T20 captain, one of the best short format players) youngster Sonny Baker and Jimmy Anderson recruited too.
Last year Manchester had their overseas recruitment all wrong. The three players were Fazalhaq Faroozi, Sikandar Raza and Usama Mir (Afghan bowler, Zimbabwe batsman, Pakistani bowler respectively) for a combined £235,000.
Sikandar scored 59 runs in 8 matches whilst Faroozi and Mir combined for 13 wickets. This year there has been a change in strategy. £400,000 has been spent on drafted overseas players Rachin Ravindra (when he arrives from his current Test series) and Heinrich Klaasen (£200,000 combined) and leg spinner Noor Ahmed in the £200,000 highest salary band.
Noor Ahmed took 24 wickets for CSK in this year’s IPL, the second highest wicket taker in the competition.
The combination of these three players has the potential to be much more impactful than 2024.
For reference with the Originals spending £400,000 the Invincibles have spent £235,000 on their three overseas this year.
The Oval Invincibles began their season with an easy win at the London Spirit, one of the weaker teams in every season so far, on Tuesday night chasing down just 80 with 30 balls to spare. One of the problems for the Hundred so far has been a lack of star power (top salaries are capped at levels far below those offered on the current USA franchise series). However this game had Warner, Williamson and Rashid Khan and of the three only Rashid with 3 wickets produced a performance.
The Originals were two balls shy of defending 135 at home to the Southern Brave on Wednesday night. Phil Salt top scored with 60, Noor took 2-21 off his 20 balls and was a real handful, the “pace off” seamers went well and the Originals were the likely winner until a late tail-end flurry took the Brave home to a two-wicket win.
It was a feature of the Hundred last season that most scores were below par. The Hundred white ball was very unpopular with players, batsmen thought it did too much and this season it has been abandoned with the organisers targeting more consistent big hitting and bigger scores (understandably enough given its covered on two TV channels including the BCC and there’s a new cricket audience to retain). Early days but first innings scores of 80 and 135 suggest there is some way to go!
Another feature is that games have been often played on slow, tired in many cases used wickets. Again not helpful for producing high scores. A variety of reasons for this. By the time the Hundred comes around squares have had four months of cricket on them, the Womens games are played on the same pitch before the men etc. I expect the organisers would love every match to be played on fresh pitches encouraging hitting through the line after plenty of carry. We’ll see what this season brings.
When betting on any game in this format we have to be aware of the potential for simple game variance more than any other format purely because the games are so short, whether this is in the outright market or player markets.
Odds for this game are the Invincibles 8/15, Originals 6/4.
10 points Manchester Originals to beat Oval Invincibles at 6/4 William Hill, 11/8 Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral 13/10 with Bet365, BetVictor
A Tangled web.
Article 5.01 of UEFA’s regulations for its club tournaments is straightforward.
“No one may simultaneously be involved, either directly or indirectly, in any capacity whatsoever in the management, administration and/or sporting performance of more than one club participating in a UEFA club competition. No individual or legal entity may have control or influence over more than one club participating in a UEFA club competition” by which it specifies “holding a majority of the shareholders’ voting rights” or “being able to exercise by any means a decisive influence in the decision-making of the club”.
That is why Crystal Palace’s dreams of competing in their first ever European campaign hung in the balance with the largest shareholder John Textor looking to offload his 43% stake to New York Jets co-owner Woody Johnson because Textor’s Eagle Football Holdings investment vehicle is also the largest shareholder of French club Lyon, who also qualified for next season’s Europa League.
Crystal Palace have pointed out that, while Textor has been indeed the club’s largest shareholder, he has had just 25% of their voting rights. Textor has found himself conceding that his vision of integrating Palace into his Eagle Football empire with Lyon, RWD Molenbeek (Belgium), Botafogo (Brazil) and FC Florida (United States) had proved unachievable because the club is effectively run by chairman Steve Parish.
UEFA had to decide whether the scramble to sell Textor’s shares to Johnson meant Palace are in compliance. The deal, which will also have to be ratified by the Premier League, was not be completed before UEFA made their decision and they ultimately decided to relegate Crystal Palace to the Conference League from the Europa League over shared ownership issues with Lyon. Palace will no doubt appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
UEFA’s belated clampdown on multi-club ownership though doesn’t deter multi-club ownership at all. It just seeks to offer a semblance of compliance where UEFA’s competitions are concerned, as if the only issue with multi-club networks is the relatively small (but fast-growing) threat of teams under the same ownership playing each other.
UEFA’s most recent report detailed that 105 top-flight sides across Europe are now part of a multi-club structure. That includes 15 in the Premier League, 11 in Italy’s Serie A, 10 in Ligue 1 in France, 9 in Spain’s La Liga and 6 in the Bundesliga.
What UEFA are addressing is just the tip of the iceberg: small regulatory issues at a small number of clubs at a time when there is much more potential damage being caused to European football under the surface.
The further and deeper multi-club ownership spreads, the closer we come to a scenario where football could be dominated by a handful of rival networks who own the biggest teams in every league on every continent and whether those networks are owned by energy-drink manufacturers, venture capitalists or sovereign wealth funds, whether or not those sides are temporarily placed into blind trusts for appearances sake, it is a very different version of a game where clubs existed to represent their community.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.
- Football, the Football league season begins next Friday.
- Cricket, the start of the 2025 Hundred competition.
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix.
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia concludes with the third test in Sydney.
- Golf, The FedEx St Jude Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Scottish Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.
Free Tip
Australia v British Lions, 3rd Test Sydney, 11am Saturday.
After their last gasp win in the second Test in Melbourne last weekend the Lions secured a 2-0 series and therefore their first series win since 2013.
The Lions are gunning for another piece of history in this weekend’s final Test in Sydney, as they could become the first British and Irish Lions side to win a Test series 3-0 since 1904.
They’ve won their past eight matches in a row since heading to Australia and hold a huge +174 points difference in the process.
For the first time in this tour they were taken to the dark side in the second Test as the hosts led 23-5 after thirty minutes with Valenti and Skelton in the forwards providing the huge physical presence that they lacked in the first game with a much more direct game-plan.
Out of the ten top carriers in the match, nine were Wallabies and Australia beat 39 defenders the most against the Lions in any match over the past five tours.
Then the match changed. The Lions scored two tries before half time. Valenti went off at half-time with a knock and Skelten left after 47 minutes (the aim had been to play both for 50 minutes) and Australia only scored three more points in the last half-hour of the game.
From 23-5 down the Lions won the last 50 minutes 24-3 with a last minute try to complete their biggest ever Test comeback. Australia just couldn't match the Liuons power as the game wore on with a deficit in fitness and a weakness in defense against the visitors’ multi-phase attack. In the big picture rugby down under has I think hurt by the South African sides moving hemispheres, the Super Rugby tournament is less physical as a result.
The Lions can thank their set-piece as one of the biggest influences in stealing this match at the end. A flawless lineout performance, led by player of the match Maro Itoje, gave Jamison Gibson-Park the freedom to exit out at will, and the Leinster half-back once again demonstrated what a brilliant exponent of kicking from the base he is. His 18 kicks amassed a massive gain of 264m, but key to his kicking strategy is the ability to get the hang time needed to get his aerial players challenging.
The scrum won the Lions three penalties and there may have been a couple more on another day, Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong started the job, but the impact of Ellis Genge and Stuart cannot be overlooked. Both England props got the better of their opposite numbers in the tight, with Stuart making a key 23m run right at the end to set up position for the Keenan try and Genge making a number of thundering carries for 15m. The collective performance of both sets of props was huge in terms of the result and it demonstrated perfectly the importance of impact from front-row forwards.
Normally in these circumstances I would suggest the team that has wrapped up the series would spend the last week of the tour on the razz and therefore back the underdog (here, Australia) at 5/2 outright in this case.
I am sure there will be some partying but there is a motivation. Even before the series there was talk from the Lions of winning the series 3-0 for the first time since the great 1974 touring side did so.
The point spreads through the series have been Australia +12, then +10.5 and now +8.5 and Australia have lost by 8 and then 3 points with this game to come.
Australia were terrible and under-cooked in the first Test, improved for the first half of the second Test and are about to enter the Rugby Championship with successive away games in South Africa and with hindsight were certainly underprepared for the Lions series and maybe treating this it as a warm-up for the Southern Hemisphere tournament to come.
I think they will improve again this week, they must with a tough Rugby Championship to come. Lose again and they will have lost 10 of 14 games going into that tournament. The question after two winning series bets is whether to stick with the point spread, now +8.5, or chance Australia 11/4 outright.
The Lions have resisted the temptation to rotate into their squad depth, only two changes to the starting XV from last week and a 6-2 bench for the crucial last twenty minutes. They are all out to win 3-0. Eleven players have been picked to start all three tests. Picking this team saw their odds shorten slightly from earlier in the week.
Australia have made a handful of changes. Valenti is out which is disappointing but prop Taniela Tupou comes in at tighthead for his first appearance of the series.
10 points Australia to win at 11/4 Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet, 13/5 Betfred.
Cut back.
The Welsh Rugby Union has decided to cut the number of professional clubs in Wales to three. The WRU board has agreed that reducing the number of professional clubs is the best way forward with the process set to begin this summer. As part of the WRU's One Wales strategy the initial plan was to retain four clubs (Cardiff, Dragons in Newport, Ospreys in Swansea and the Scarlets in Llanelli) under a new Professional Rugby Agreement which was meant to lead to increased funding and a refinancing of the debt acquired during Covid.
However the WRU's decision to take ownership of Cardiff Rugby following the club entering administration has altered the landscape significantly. While the Dragons have signed the new PRA, both the Ospreys and Scarlets refused to do so over fears the WRU would turn Cardiff into a super club.
The WRU and the two west Wales clubs have been locked in negotiations for the past couple of weeks but have not been able to get a deal over the line.
It appears there is not enough money in the new PRA to fund four strong professional sides, nor a sufficient volume of high-end professional players to service four clubs.
All four professional clubs have struggled to compete with the better sides in the United Rugby Championship and Europe, while the Dragons finished bottom of the table having won just one league game all season. The WRU want to create a structure which is financially viable and allows the game in Wales to not only survive but thrive. Cutting to three professional clubs could be seen as an ambitious move to concentrate talent and resources which should in theory improve standards across the board.
As to which club would disappear, no news yet. One option would be to put the licences out to tender after setting some strict criteria based on things like stadium, facilities, investors and players produced for Wales.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Salisbury, Windsor and York and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia, the second Test in Melbourne.
- Cricket, England v India Fifth Test at the Oval next week
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa.
- Golf, The Wyndham Championship on the USPGA Tour
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package): Next Week.
We have just added the Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package) - 29th July - 2nd August 2025 to our website here
Free Tip
Australia v British Lions Second Test Melbourne Saturday 11am BST
In the first Test in Brisbane last weekend the Lions were 24-5 up after 50 minutes, not only with complete physical domination but with various Australia player combinations looking like complete strangers (Tom Lynagh and Jake Gordon at 9 and 10 played as if they’d met for the first time in the car park before kick-off) and having recommended Australia +10 (they started +12!) at that point it wasn’t the happiest of Saturday mornings from a financial perspective!
One point that wasn’t discussed much prior to the game was the sheer gulf in experience. Only four Lions had less than 30 caps, only four Wallabies had more than 40 caps.
In the first half Australia were simply destroyed on the gain-line, going round the corner and being sent back from where they came. In such circumstances there is very little that a cerebral coach like Joe Schmidt can do and it looked like the Lions would coast to a big win.
Then the substitute benches began to empty, Australia improved and the Lions fell off. Two Australia tries later they had won the second half 14-10 and finished by losing by 8 points without ever threatening to win
Once Tom Curry went off after a great performance in the Lions back-row Australia had much more space in which to work. As the Lions tired and lost the Curry influence, so Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight in the Australian backrow kept trucking. The Lions looked leg weary and started to fall off collisions you’d expect them to dominate.
The Wallabies had a chance in the first Test, but unfortunately two things happened; the selection was poor and players that influence games were injured. In simple terms, both of these things can be changed up for the second Test. Ben Donaldson and Tate McDermott at 9 and 10 should be able to control the backline better with the broken field game that we saw in the last 20 minutes last weekend and give it a crack. In the forwards Will Skelton, Bobby Valetini and Dave Poerecki are back (with over 90 caps combined), all massively physical players. Furthermore there is a 6-2 bench to keep the physicality up later in the game.
The Pasifika team on Tuesday night gave them a blueprint of how to play, hugely physical and disruptive and these returning players make it easier for Australia to set that tone this week.
The aim will be to use them to get on the board and build scoreboard pressure. The Lions conceded 12 penalties under pressure last weekend. Valetini and Skelton should enable Australia to get more front-foot ball and provide Sua'ali'i with opportunities in attack.
The Lions coaches meanwhile have the experience of the last 30 minutes for this week. The biggest single contrast in the match was the relative finishing performances of the benches. Ronan Kelleher had an absolute shocker with his lineout. Four throws went awry, three of them completely mis-thrown, and that put continual pressure on the Lions in exit.
With only Bundee Aki and Will Stuart really adding anything for the Lions off the bench, there are a number of changes for Melbourne, five on the bench and three in the starting line-up, two enforced by injuries.
Finally looking at the weather apps, it could be a wet Melbourne this weekend (70% probability at kick-off time as I write).
Given all of this (Australia should improve with key players back, weather issues) I thought last week’s +10 and 7/2 Australia would move down a few spots, without challenging for a change of favourite.
Instead we find Australia +10.5 on the spread and 7/2 outright again (this time 46.5 points expected, three points lower than last week).
I feel compelled to back Australia again on value grounds, without at all thinking they are a great team but they shouldn’t be as bad again this week. I expect a one-score game.
15 points Australia +10.5 points at 10/11 generally.
Into the Void.
Last month the NFL commissioner Roger Goodell questioned the integrity of the NFL’s salary cap system stating that it was a priority for NFL owners going into the league’s next collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA will expire in March 2031.
NFL teams typically don’t guarantee the salaries of players beyond the first one or two years of veteran deals, in part because of the frequency of injuries in the sport and how much older professional football players are when they enter their second contracts. There’s no promise that a player signed in 2025 will be wanted by the team come 2027 in a league that turns over talent so quickly. Thus, a lot of the money NFL players receive in their veteran contracts comes in the form of a signing bonus, up-front money that is counted against the cap for the lifetime of a contract.
This worked well for the league up until the end of Drew Brees’ run with the Saints and Tom Brady’s run with the Patriots. In an effort to make title runs at the end of each of those quarterbacks’ careers, both of their teams learned how to use the NFL’s void year mechanism to take advantage of the current cap system.
A void year is essentially a way to stretch out a signing bonus to have it count on the cap in years where a player isn’t going to be under contract. For example, if you wanted to pay a player a $10 million bonus on a one-year contract, you previously would have had to account for all of that on the cap in the year that he was on your team. With void years, you can add on up to four extra seasons at the end of the deal, stretching the cap accounting of a one-year signing bonus to just one-fifth of the amount for that individual season.
Some viewed the Saints’ and Patriots’ strategy as taking a loan from their future teams, something that they’d eventually have to pay off.
Teams began to learn how to manipulate the salary cap with void years. In theory, the cap dollars will be due eventually, but there’s no limit on the “debt” a team can take by just perpetually pushing cap hits into future years.
The league never spent 5% over the salary cap in cash spending in any year from 2011 to 2019. Since 2020, though, cash spending has eclipsed the salary cap by more than that number every year, usually by around 10%.
Some teams have now made pushing cap hits into the future a full-blown strategy. The Eagles have constructed their roster for perpetual salary conversions up to the 2029 season, around the time when the NFL will have a new set of television (or streaming) contracts that will likely increase the salary cap more rapidly than the $25m per year pace that we’re seeing at the moment. So if the Eagles take on $20m of debt now, and that debt will be a smaller drop in the bucket come 2029, why should they just keep kicking the can forward? That is why NFL owners are worried.
Previously, the NFL’s parity model worked well. Between the draft, the salary cap and free agency, top teams were torn to shreds as they were unable to keep all of their star players together for long periods of time, which benefited rebuilding teams the most. With the ability to push cap dollars into future years, though, fewer of these star players are getting to market in free agency. Even the pool of veteran cap casualties has taken a hit for teams looking to add talent, as void years and salary conversions have allowed these players to remain on their clubs for an extra year or two.
So, how bad has the cash differential become in the NFL? According to Spotrac, the Browns have spent $401.3m more on players than their divisional rival, the Steelers since the start of the 2020 league year. That debt has been added to the team’s accounting in future years, but, again, there’s no due date to get cap neutral, so in theory, that money can continue to be kicked into the future in perpetuity.
While the Browns don’t make much of a case that spending equals winning, the next four teams behind them in 2020 to 2025 cash spending are a group of teams that have found success: the 49ers, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles.
Soon, many owners will have to decide whether it’s time to reset their cap situation or continue to push forward. I can understand why ownership groups who want to rebuild are questioning whether or not the same benefits that rebuilding teams used to receive in free agency even still exist in a league if void year and salary conversion manipulation is rampant. If those rebuilding teams do not have the same benefits they used to have, then deep-pocketed owners will benefit the most in this era. That’s where the “integrity” comment Goodell came from.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon and over the jumps at Cartmel and Market Rasen.
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia, the first Test in Brisbane.
- Cricket, England v India Third Test at Old Trafford next week.
- Golf, The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities on the USPGA Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Croatia, Kitzbuehel and Washington
We have just added the Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package) - 29th July - 2nd August 2025 to our website here.
Free Tip
Australia v the British Lions First Test, Brisbane, Saturday 11am BST.
Consensus thinking would be that the Lions are comfortable favourites to win this series and there has been a lot of chatter about a 3-0 series win in the lead up to the three Test series.
It’s certainly true that this is the easiest of the three Lions Tour venues, compared to World Champion South Africa and New Zealand. Australia’s current world ranking is 6th, compared to Ireland 3rd and England 5th the two countries who supply the bulk of the Test team.
It’s also true that Rugby Union in Australia is not in a great place and the financial weaknesses are such that no fewer than 50 Australian professional players are away making a living in Europe. I would say that seven of them would have been certain to meet the Lions in this first Test.
Gloom about the prospects of a competitive series intensified when Australia crept past Fiji 21-18 in their only warm-up game recently. However I wouldn’t overdo it. Australia almost certainly didn’t show many of their attacking strategies and above that didn’t attempt the aerial game at all, a part of the game where the Lions have struggled in their warm-up games and which should, for Joseph Sua'ali'i the centre particularly, a strength for Australia.
Australia coach Joe Schmidt is a smart operator though, I’m sure he will have a few surprises for this match.
The Lions build-up to the Tests has been unsatisfying. Lions’ administrators signed a contract with Rugby Australia that Wallabies players would be appearing against the Lions in the provincial games but this proved unenforceable, and the Lions have only faced weakened provincial teams on the way to this game after their initial loss to Argentina in Dublin.
These Lions are a young touring party full of good players but short of great players (and the arrival of Own Farrell three weeks in suggested a party that needed an experienced leader too) and although unbeaten in Australia have laboured through games at times with lots of mistakes ball-in-hand and in the aerial game.
A major factor has been the schedule which has seen play Wednesday, travel to a new city Thursday, run through Friday, play again Saturday, travel Sunday and repeat, which has appeared to a lead to a lack of cohesion. This has been the first week spent in situ since arriving Down Under.
From what we have seen the Lions scrum will be a strength, and they have struggled at the breakdown in every provincial game. The selection of a back-row of Beirne, Curry and Conan suggests the Lions will opt for directness and power, the selection over any of Morgan/Van De Flier/Pollock more traditional “on the floor” players a call many would disagree with.
Australia suffered a big loss through injury of likely starting 10 Noah Lolesio that leads to three-cap 22-year-old Tom Lynagh starting at ten, a bold call, but Australia could have been expected to bring at least four world class players to the game in back-rows Rob Valenti and Fraser McReight and centres Sua'ali'i and Len Ikitau. Then Valenti was ruled out this week too and mammoth second row Will Skelton was too.
Minus a big ball-carrier like Valenti I think Australia will target the Lions on the air and on the ground and could have picked two sevens/fetchers to disrupt Lions ball but instead have picked a big six making his debut to match the Lions approach.
I still believe this series will be tighter than many expect. Australia will be motivated underdogs at home, written off by many, and it’s the nature of a Test series for games to tighten up.
You wouldn’t know that from the prevailing market prices ahead of this first test though. The Lions are 1/4 and Australia up to 7/2 and +9.5, even +10 in a pace on the spread having been +7 at the beginning of the week then travelling through +8.5 midweek and onwards before the team news/Australia injury confirmations where its now +9.5/+10. The expected points total is 49.5.
I think for starters the series will be 2-1 either way. I think Australia +9.5 this weekend is reasonable bet, if we can get +10 in the run up to 11am Saturday then that's a key number and 7/2 outright is a value price though I’d be more confident if Lolesio and Valenti were in the team.
11 points Australia +10 points to win the first test at 10/11 Betfred (+9 or + 9.5 generally).
Down.
TV viewer numbers for Premier League matches dropped last season after two previous record-breaking years, due in part to a lack of a close title race or relegation battle.
Sky Sports viewing numbers were down 10% last season to be broadly in line with the 2021-22 campaign. TNT Sports’ Saturday 12.30pm kick-off showed a 5% drop on the 2023-24 season, and a 17% drop with the two full midweek rounds included.
The numbers were presented to clubs at their annual meeting in June. Clubs were told Liverpool’s title without a serious challenge from Arsenal or Manchester City meant viewer numbers dropped off particularly over the last six weeks of the season. Until then they had been close to the 2023-24 season.
The lack of a compelling relegation battle also affected interest towards the end of the campaign with Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton effectively guaranteed to go down a couple of months before the end of the season.
Next season will see even more live Premier League matches on TV when a new broadcast deal starts. Sky will show at least 215 top-flight matches live, up from 128, including all games moved to Sundays because of clubs’ involvement in European competitions.
TNT Sports will retain 52 games including the Saturday 12.30pm kick-offs and two midweek rounds. For the first time in six years, Amazon Prime will have no Premier League rights meaning there will be two rather than three subscriptions for viewers to pay.
Broadcasters hope that fact plus the extra number of matches (every game not kicking off during the Saturday afternoon blackout will be available live) will cut the number of people using pirate streams to watch games. Anecdotal evidence shows that some fans are frustrated by being unable to watch their teams’ matches via the broadcasters and seek out illegal streams instead.
The new Premier League TV deal is the first one to run over four years instead of three and is worth a total of £6.7billion, which includes £300million from the BBC for Match of the Day highlights.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
