The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th April

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, The Grand National at Aintree plus on the flat at Great Yarmouth, Over the jumps at Chepstow and Newcastle and on the all- weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Leeds United
• Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Quarter Finals
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Golf, the RBC Heritage Tournament on the USPGA Tour  next week.
• Tennis, ATP Barcelona and BMW Opens

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Free Tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Quarter finals

Glasgow v Toulon Saturday 3pm

7 of 8 higher seeds won their matches in the last sixteen last weekend leaving the Quarter-Final line-up this weekend as follows:

Bordeaux -2.5 v Toulouse

A repeat of the semi-final last weekend, Bordeaux won 35-18 on their way to winning the competition

Bath -10.5 v Northampton

English Prem Champions against last season’s finalists

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Glasgow -10.5 v Toulon

URC leaders against Quarter-finalists last year

Leinster -18.5 v Sale

Losing semi-finalists last year against the outsider of the eight teams left and lowest seed remaining

The top half of the draw is clearly the strength remaining where most would expect the eventual winner to come from.

Glasgow/Toulon is a game between the second and seventh seeds, Toulon finished second in Bath’s pool, both teams winning three of four games, Bath gaining more bonus points to secure the higher seeding.

Last weekend both teams had narrow wins against South African opposition at home. Glasgow beat the Bulls 25-21 having been behind in the second half. Toulon beat the Stormers 28-27 holding on at the end when they went down to 13 men, and the Stormers thought they had won the match with a very late try, having turned down a drop goal opportunity. However, the referee deemed there was insufficient evidence of a grounding and Toulon held on to win by the skin of their teeth.

Domestically Glasgow are near the end of an exceptional season, four points clear at the top of the URC with 11 wins out of 14. Toulon meanwhile are down in 11^th in the French top 14 with only 9 wins in 20 matches.

Glasgow contain the core of the Scottish national team, six current internationals started last weekend. Toulon supplement their French core with big money overseas signings Brex the Italian centre, White the Scottish scrum half an the English lock Ribbans. Not that consistent a team this season but certainly with big game potential when at full strength.

Glasgow are 10.5-point favourites. They certainly should be favoured at home but 11.5 points feels excessive for a knockout game against such experienced opponents.

11 points Toulon +10.5 points at 10/11 generally

Reviewing the 2025 NFL season

The NFL experienced the end of an era with the 2025 season after that of 2018-25 where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs replaced the previous Patriots era by keeping the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens at bay for years and denying the 49ers two titles in head-to-head Super Bowls.

After the Chiefs missed the playoffs in 2025 and Mahomes tore his ACL, the AFC was considered to be wide open. Yet the Ravens missed the playoffs, the Steelers lost another wild card game and the Bills still couldn’t get to a Super Bowl with Josh Allen.

Because those teams still failed to advance without the Chiefs in sight John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, and Sean McDermott are all gone from their long-term Head Coaching jobs. In 2026 the NFL has 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators.

In 2025 Super Bowl 60 was the NFC’s to lose, and that’s why the NFC Championship Game between the Rams and Seahawks, the two best teams in the league, was de facto the real title game.

NFL history has shown us that it is harder than ever to repeat, and with 2025 being such an outlier, this might be one of the toughest seasons to take any long-lasting lessons from. Let’s recap some of the lessons learned from the 2025 NFL season

In the fallout of Super Bowl 60 between two teams who had zero fourth-quarter lead changes in any of their playoff games while the rest of the NFL produced a record 14 lead changes, the immediate reviews on the 2025 NFL season were not positive.

• A record seven new teams won their division, none were favoured to do so, and the only repeat winner (Eagles in NFC East) was the only division that hadn’t had any repeat winners since 2004.

• Of the top seven pre-season favourites, only the Bills won a playoff game, and the Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, and Commanders didn’t even make the playoffs.
• The Seahawks and Patriots combined for the most improbable preseason odds of any Super Bowl matchup in NFL history.
• The 2025 AFC had five teams win at least 12 games, the first time that’s ever happened in one conference since the 1970 merger.
• The 2025 NFC West became the first division to ever have three teams win at least 12 games, and that happened largely at the expense of the 3-14 Arizona Cardinals, who were 0-6 against them.

Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Patrick Mahomes were all preseason MVP favourites who were injured at some point in the season, and none of their teams had a winning record. The MVP race became a two-way battle of attrition between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. Micah Parsons’ torn ACL cleared the path to a Defensive Player of the Year award for Myles Garrett, who just barely broke the single-season sack record for a 5-win Cleveland team.

Two lessons reinforced harshly in Super Bowl 60 is that you need to have an offensive line without a major hole and you have to be able to rush the passer without blitzing. Once again, that proved to be the difference in who won and lost a championship in the NFL:

• Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell allowed 14 pressures in Super Bowl 60, the most by any one player in any game this season.
• The Patriots gave up 6 sacks to go along with the 15 sacks in the first three playoff games, the 21 sacks the most ever allowed in a single postseason.
• Sam Darnold and Drake Maye both had an average time to throw of 2.83 seconds in Super Bowl 60.
• Maye was pressured on 52.8% of his dropbacks (his second-highest game of 2025) while only facing a blitz on a season-low 13.2% of his plays.
• Darnold was pressured on 41.5% of his dropbacks while facing a blitz on 56.1% of his plays.

It’s nearly impossible to win a game in the NFL if your pressure rate is practically 40% higher than the blitz rate. Even Patrick Mahomes was at +38.1% (2024 Eagles) and +32.4% (2020 Buccaneers) in his blowout Super Bowl losses while Maye was +39.6% this year.

With the Patriots going from a 4-13 season to the Super Bowl, it does serve as a reminder that no team should be waiting on some 5-year plan to improve. You really can do it much quicker in the NFL with the right pieces, but it still starts with making sure you have the right coach, quarterback, and a support system around them that’s going to largely come from the draft and from smart free-agent signings instead of very expensive ones.

With two of the more dominant Super Bowl winners led by Darnold and Jalen Hurts the last two years, it does go to show that you don’t need the most expensive quarterback in the NFL to win it all. 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th April

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Musselburgh, Over the jumps at Carlisle, Haydock, Huntingdon and Newton Abbot and on the all- weather at Wolverhampton.
• FA Cup, Quarter finals this weekend
• Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Round of 16
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Golf, the Masters begins next Thursday
• Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters

 

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Aintree Grand National Festival

We have added the Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 9th-11th April 2026 to our website for £99 here 

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European Rugby Champions Cup Last Sixteen

Harlequins v Sale 8pm Saturday

Two of the most disappointing English PREM sides this season are drawn together in the last sixteen of the ERCC this weekend.

Both Harelequins and Sale have only won 3 of their 12 league matches and are in 9^th and 7^th in the ten-team league respectively. As the top 8 in the league qualify for next season’s ERCC both sides need improved form at the tail end of the season.

Harlequins finished second in their ERCC pool winning 3 of 4 games finishing behind Leinster but ahead of Leicester, La Rochelle, Bayonne and the Stormers. They were helped by playing at home to a weakened Stormers team and winning but had a huge win at the end of the pool at La Rochelle to secure the sixth seed.

Sale finished third in Pool 1 behind Glasgow and Toulouse but ahead of Saracens. They too beat weakened South African opposition the Sharks at home and also beat a French side, Clermont, away. The ended the pool stages as the eleventh seed.

With the knockout stages draw fixed the winners of this match will most likely travel to Dublin to play Leinster in the Quarter-Finals, a very tough task for either.

Harlequins problems this season have been three-fold. 1 Instability in the coaching team 2. Injuries and 3. Lack of defensive structure.

After Head Coach Danny Wilson’s abrupt departure just before the start of this season Jason Gilmore was promoted from defence coach to senior coach and recently he has been confirmed as the coach through next season.

On the one hand promising a global search only to promote the person who was already in the building presents an optical issue. Particularly when that coach, in this case Gilmore, had a grand total of two league wins this season at the time. There are mitigating factors behind Quins’ rotten season, but in footballing terms it would be the equivalent of Tottenham Hotspur having given Igor Tudor a five-year contract as manager.

Quins are also in a spell of huge player upheaval with players either retired or gone to other clubs since 2021: Danny Care, centre Andre Esterhuizen, top props Joe Marler, Wilco Louw and Will Collier, young locks Hugh Tizard, George Hammond and Dino Lamb, and others including Mike Brown, Louis Lynagh and Irne Herbst and this season injuries have hampered those expected to be leaders.

Last weekend 20 first team squad players were out injured including the Argentinian forward signings Guido Petti, Boris Wenger and Pedro Delgado alongside England prop Fin Baxter. Little has been seen of the Scotland hooker George Turner or scrum-half Stu Townsend.

Out of nowhere last weekend Harlequins then won 18-14 against Bristol in Cardiff. They had not won away in the league for more than a year, they had not won anywhere in the league since October, and they were without England star Marcus Smith and forced to play England wing Caden Murley in the centre.

For Sale meanwhile, defense coach Byron McGuigan had left for Steve Borthwick’s England across the Six Nations window, leaving Mike Forshaw to step back in and rebuild defensive structures that have shown uncomfortable fragility this season. Until the defensive system stabilises, this vulnerability will keep surfacing at the worst possible moments.

Last weekend Sale were also improved for much of a 31-26 home defeat to Champions Bath, were two scores ahead during the first-half, but faded later on with only 25% possession in the second half.

Despite injuries to the Curry brothers this is a team that includes two England front-rowers, George Ford at 10 and Tom Roebuck on the wing.

Looking at the odds for the game, its Harlequins 8/13 Sale 13/10. Harelquins opened -5 on the spread and the line moved to -2.5 quickly.

Assessing which way to go is a matter of deciding which of two disappointing teams might be closer to turning round their fortunes and getting stability in their defensive structure. With their recent coaching certainty, for the first time this season, that is probably Harlequins and they are at home too. On the downside, they remain injury hit.

Reflecting a lack of depth in the competition in recent years, there have been only 2 away wins from 24 games at the last 16 stage of the competition over the last three years. Getting the home team here, in a game of two disappointing teams, at less than a three-point penalty goal, is the way to go.

11 points Harlequins -2.5 points at 10/11 widely available

Close to the sun

Wolverhampton Wanderers will be relegated at the end of this season, ending an eight-year stay in the Premier League.

In 2018, Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion both dropped into the Championship after 10 and eight years respectively of top-flight football. In 2023, Southampton’s 11-year stint came to an end, while Leicester City went down after eight seasons after their title win and they might suffer another relegation this season.

Clubs who win promotion and survive their first season sometimes solidify their Premier League status for a while. Sunderland will do so this season, Leeds might, Burnley probabv won’t.  Sometimes clubs exceed expectations for a season or two, or even more.

The problems do not afflict everyone.

Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have been in the Premier League every season since its inception more than 30 years ago. Manchester City were relegated in its early days and Aston Villa and Newcastle United more recently, but with their current, wealthy owners, all three are secure notwithstanding the multiple Premier League charges hanging over City.

For everyone else, the challenge is different. Of the current 20 Premier League clubs outside that group, only West Ham United (14 years) and Crystal Palace (13) have been there for more than a decade. Seven clubs have been there for five years or fewer. Outside the ‘big six’ and Everton, there have been just 14 stints of 10 years or more in the Premier League among all of the other clubs.

On one hand, it adds interest to the league that the teams below the top echelons are changed on a regular basis. On the other, it creates a genuine question of the right approach for clubs striving for promotion. Push too far in a PSR era, and problems arise from over-investment. One such example of where that has gone badly wrong, of poor recruitment on big wages, are Leicester. If their 2015-16 title triumph is viewed as an astonishing aberration for the established elite, then most of the other clubs spend their time in the Premier League simply trying to avoid dropping out of it, some in better ways than others.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th March

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Over the jumps at Stratford and Uttoxeter and on the all- weather at Kempton and Southwell.
• International Friendlies, including England v Uruguay and Japan
• Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka
• Golf, the Texas Open on the USPGA
• Tennis, ATP US Clay Court Championships and ATP Opens in Bucharest and Marrakech

Aintree Grand National Festival

We have added the Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 9th-11th April 2026 to our website for £99 here 

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The 2026 Masters 

Chris Gotterup is making his first Masters start in 2026. He will join Dave Hill in 1968 and Mark Wilson in 2011 as players since World War II to make their Masters debut with at least four official PGA Tour wins. Since July 2025, he has won the Scottish Open edging past McIlroy in the final pairing, finished tied third in The Open at Royal Portrush, competed in his first Tour Championship and started the 2026 season with victories in Honolulu and Phoenix. He’s become a four-time winner in his third year on the PGA Tour and has four top 25s this season and three wins in his last 15 events. 

A Year ago he was ranked 219th in the Official World Golf Rankings, he’s now seventh but at prices up to 60-1 just creeps into the top 25 of the betting market for the Masters. This obviously reflects the difficulty of competing at Augusta as a rookie, where only Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 has won on his first appearance.

Yet Gotterup’s game looks like it will suit Augusta well, mainly his length off the tee but also his approach game too. When he first entered the tour he was a classic bomb and gouge guy that didn’t really know where the ball was going but his game has rounded with control of his speed.

Here are his OWGR rankings this season:

5^th in driving distance

17^th Strokes Gained

24^th Strokes Gained off the tee

28^th Strokes Gained Approach

99^th putting

Clearly we’d like the putting stat to be better on what are (weather permitting) always fast greens but the rest of his game looks well set for the Masters.

As I write, and we want as many places as we can get, firms are ¼ 1,2,3,4,5,6. In ten days or so there should be 8 to 10 places around the industry, so I would wait a few days for those marketing offers and be prepared to accept a few points less on the price to get those places.

10 points each-way Chris Gotterup to win the Masters at 55-1 Betfred (1/5,1,2,3,4,5,6), 55-1 Bet365 (1/5 1,2,3,4) 50-1 William Hill ((1/5,1,2,3,4,5,6)

2026 FIFA World Cup Thoughts

The 12 groups for the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico, were drawn in December. This tournament will be the first to include 48 teams, an expansion from 32 and begins on June 11^th.

Standout group matches will include Mbappe’s France facing Haaland’s Norway in Group I, Brazil vs Morocco in Group C, Portugal against Colombia in Group K and Spain clashing with Uruguay in Group H. The USA will be pleased with a fairly kind group, although it will depend, like five other groups, on which teams make it through the play-offs in March.

Current Ante-Post odds are:

Spain 9/2

England 11/2

France 8/1

Brazil 8/1

Argentina 8/1

Portugal 12/1

Germany 12/1

Netherlands 20/1

Norway 28/1

Italy 33/1

Each way terms are half the odds, two places.

Amongst the key themes:

The hosts the United States, Mexico and Canada all have beatable opponents in their group

Belgium will fancy their chances of topping Group G, with an opener against Egypt looking likely to set the tone. Games against Iran and New Zealand, the competition’s lowest-ranked side should then allow them to progress comfortably.

Spain will be satisfied. Cape Verde did well to even reach the World Cup and it would be a major surprise were they to lay a glove on the European champions first up. Saudi Arabia aren’t as good as they were four years ago and Uruguay could just as easily self-destruct as thrive. 

England drawn in a group with Croatia, Panama and Ghana is fairly tough when you’re a top seed. If they manage to win the group and get to the last 16, they could find themselves facing Mexico in Mexico City followed by, in theory, Brazil in Miami. 

Scotland have a tough task with both five-time world champions Brazil and 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Morocco standing in their way. Brazil vs Morocco is a great start to the group.

In Group I a France and Senegal rematch, the opening game for both sides, is fun.

The phrase “Group of Death” became less valid once the World Cup was expanded to 32 teams in 1998. With 48 teams, of which 32 will make the knockout stage, it looks almost impossible for any team with serious aspirations to feel endangered. 

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd March

Coming up this weekend

 

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Kelso and Newbury and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Southwell.
• Premier League, fixtures include Newcastle United v Sunderland
• Cricket, the IPL starts next week
• Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA and the Indian Open on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Miami Open Continues

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Aintree Grand National Festival

We have added the Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 9th-11th April 2026 to our website for £99 here

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Free Tip

2026 IPL

The 19^th season of the IPL starts on March 28^th with a return to the classic IPL format where every team plays home and away against every other. This means 77 Matches over 84 days, with double headers at weekends and the usual four team knockout phase.

Only the Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians have achieved consecutive titles, this time defending champions, Royal Challengers Bengaluru will aim to retain their first title won last season.

Odds this season are as follows: Each way terms are available at most firms at half the odds, two places.

Mumbai Indians 4/1

RCB 6/1

Gujarat Titans 8/1

Punjab Kings 8/1

Delhi Capitals 9/1

Sunrisers Hyderabad 9/1

Lucknow Super Giants 10/1

Chennai Super Kings 10/1

Kolkota Knight Riders 10/1

Rajasthan Royals 12/1

No great surprise to see Mumbai favourites, they start off as such every season and are a big game team who like to lead with strong pace bowling (Bumrah/Boult etc) now augmented by Jacks and Santner as spin-bowling all-rounders.

I am looking to decided between a couple of teams at higher prices as the each-way value to reach the knockout phases and from there hope to run well.

Firstly the Gujarat Titans at 7/1, winners in 2022 and runners-up in 2023. The Titans love a fast bowler who can steam into the opposition players and with a starting line-up of Rabada, Krishna and Siraj with Wood, Arshad Khan and Ishant Sharma on the bench, they have this again.

There are some warning signs there though for their batting line up which last year was very dependent on big runs from their top three. Shubman Gill has played T20 since the end of 2025, Sudharsan hasn’t played since December and the less said about Jos Buttler’s form the better. Glenn Phillips and/or Jason Holder will be important middle order players if they fail.

Secondly the Delhi Capitals at 9/1. They have started strong and tailed off for the last few years. Could this be the year that they fulfil their potential?

One of their key strengths is their versatility within the squad, they have so many tactical combinations they really could field two or three different versions of their team depending who they are playing. Starc leads the pace-bowling line-up and he is fresh after not playing in the T20 World Cup. Add the spin due of Kuldeep and Axar and this is a very good bowling unit. Batting wise they have shopped smart bringing in Duckett and Nissanka to fill for the opener slot with KL Rahul and there is strength and power right through the order.

Delhi can pick four of their overseas players: Nissanka, Duckett, Starc, Ngidi, Jamieson, Miller and Stubbs, possibly the strongest roster of such players in this year’s IPL.

Partly on value grounds and partly due to their versatility and depth I am going to choose Delhi

10 points each-way (1/2 1,2) Delhi Capitals to win the 2026 IPL at 9/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor

Try hard.

Last weekend saw the end of the 2026 Six Nations Championship, by general agreement the most exciting and probably the best Championship ever with attacking rugby on display. France retained their title and scored 30 tries on the way to doing so. Scotland and Ireland played last Saturday both with hopes of winning the title and each scored 20 tries across their five Championship games. England only won 1 game and yet scored 21 tries.

A total of 29 tries were scored across last Saturday’s three fixtures, the most on a single day in the Championship's history, overtaking 2015's Super Saturday (27).

The Championship culminated with France winning the Six Nations with the final kick of the game in Paris against England to win 48-46 (Six Nations “Scorigami”, and not for the first time this championship) a game with no less than 16 lead changes, one of the best games you will ever see as England finally threw off their shackles and played with ambition.

The most points scored in a Six Nations remains 229 (England, 2010) but France with 218 in 2025 and 211 in 2026 came close to that record.

The brilliant French winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey is 22-years-old and has played 14 Six Nations games and now has:

• 18 tries in 14 Six Nations games (joint 5th all-time)

• The record for most tries in a tournament (twice with 9 and 8)

• The most tries in consecutive Six Nations games (10)

LBB and Attisogbe combined for 14 tries (9 and 5 respectively) in this Championship on the French wings.

Perhaps every Six Nations team this year leaves with grounds for optimism:

France, a few years after their World Cup winning U20 side began to be introduced to the senior team to augment the more established players are now successive Champions and in great shape to peak for the 2027 World Cup successive champs. The team has moved on from Penaud, Fickou, Ntamack and Alldritt seamlessly, with only a couple of under-powered props an ongoing concern. On the downside, with the renowned defence coach Shaun Edwards, France conceded 50 then 46 points in rounds 4 and 5 which was highly unexpected.

Ireland won the Triple Crown, recovering from the opening week loss in Paris well. Their partial rebuild post Jonny Sexton now looks in better shape, especially because Jack Crowley has now established himself as the starting 10. McCloskey and Balacaoune at 13 and 14 were among the players of the tournament.

Scotland had fantastic wins at home against England and France but were less impressive on their travels, losing in Rome, just winning in Cardiff and second best in Dublin in the final game.

Italy had two Six Nations wins for only the fourth time in 26 years. In centre Menoncello they have a world class player and their gritty pack of forwards caused every opponent problems in scrum and line-out.

England lost four games out of five for the first time ever in a Six Nations but gave a glimpse of their potential in putting 46 points on France in Paris.

The progress Wales have made in this Six Nations has been enormous. They improved so much since the opening two matches and ended a fifteen-match losing Six Nations run on week five at home to Italy.

Overall, the Championship displayed many of the changing structural traits of modern International rugby with incredible fitness, offloading skills and rule changes in the aerial game leading to more counter-attacking and the ball-in-play more. . All of these contributed to high-scoring try laden games.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th March

Coming up this weekend

 

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter on the all- weather at Southwell.
• Premier League, fixtures include Arsenal v Everton and Chelsea v Newcastle United
• Rugby Union, the final round of the Six Nations Championship including France v England in Paris
• Formula One, the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai
• Golf, the Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the Hainan Classic on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Miami Open

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Free Tip

Six Nations Round 5 Ireland v Scotland Saturday 2.10pm

Both of these teams began the Six Nations badly. Ireland were well beaten in Paris whilt Scotland lost in Rome in terrible conditions. After that game Scotland Head Coach Gregor Townsend’s position was under real pressure his side perennial under-achievers and the Italy loss following the Autumn choke to Argentina when they led 21-0 only to lose after allowing five second half tries.

Since that opening weekend of the tournament though Ireland and Scotland have each won three games in a row and both go into this final weekend/Super Saturday with a chance of winning the title though most would expect France to win over England with a bonus point to retain their title. Even so, one of Ireland and Scotland will win the Triple Crown, something which Scotland have never won.

Doubts around Ireland after the Paris loss centred around what seemed to be an impending rebuild under two years ahead of the 2027 World Cup, with some new players being introduced. Ireland responded with a signature win over England in London, and more routine home wins over Italy and Wales. Key players like Gibson-Park and Beirne have returned to top form and the decision to start Crowley at 10 ahead of Prendergast has given more security in defense. With a stronger platform up front and at 9-10 the midfield has impressed.

In Rome Scotland’s scrum struggled but it has done much better since. They’ve excelled at the breakdown in two brilliant home wins over England and France. Against France they won all 65 of their attacking rucks and disrupted several of France’s. Here though they play without both locks who started against France, Cummings and Brown, who are injured.

At 10 Finn Russell has reached his peak, vying with Dupont for the best Northern Hemisphere player with superb variety and deception in his kicking game and starting a variety of attacks with his creativity. In attack Scotland have really turned it on with 15 tries in 3 games since Rome and no less than 7 against France in a 50-point performance with no less than 30 line-breaks. The ball was in play for over 30 minutes (six nations average un der 35 minutes) and Scotland forced France to attempt 263 tackles and miss 55, and put the biggest score on them since their renowned defence coach Shaun Edwards joined.

In Dublin this weekend I hope they stay brave as both gameplans against England and France were constructed around bravery trading risk for reward. Almost every time Scotland had a kickable penalty, they traded up the certainty of three points for seven.

Moving on from both of Scotland’s excellent home wins in this Championship this game is another matter entirely. Scotland’s record against Ireland is terrible. They’ve lost 11 of their games in a row going back to 2018 and their last nine games in Dublin going back to 2010.

I do think this is a moment that might be a turning point though. Scotland have finally turned talent and potential into rapid improvement whilst Ireland is a more workmanlike team just beginning to go through a move to a new generation of players. This should be a very close game if Scotland stick to their guns and continue to attack with precision. The expected point total for the game is 50.5 points.

11 points Scotland +5.5 points at 10/11 generally

Chaotic

A backdrop of off-field chaos is not necessarily the way in which a team wanted to play this Six Nations but it is one nonetheless with which Welsh rugby is increasingly familiar.

The Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) has entered into a “period of exclusivity” with its preferred bidder for Cardiff, which has been under WRC control since entering administration a year ago. The bidder is Y11 Sport & Media an investment firm that owns the Ospreys.No deal has yet been signed.

Last year, the WRU proposed cutting one of the four men’s professional sides, expressing a preference for a team based in the east (the Dragons in Newport), the capital (Cardiff) and west of the country. That appeared to leave the Scarlets, based in Llanelli, and the Ospreys, who are set to redevelop the St Helen’s ground in Swansea later this year, as vulnerable.

For supporters and stakeholders of the Ospreys, reports of Y11’s possible purchase of Cardiff have angst. The most successful of the four remaining sides formed in a 2003 regionalisation process uncertainty over their ground after leaving the Swansea.com Stadium formerly shared with Swansea City has caused destabilisation. While geographically close to Llanelli, if the Ospreys are to go, it would take professional rugby out of the nation’s second-largest city.

The WRU’s view is that fielding three equally funded teams is the optimal strategy for both on-field performance and off-field sustainability, having consulted with players, coaches, fans and stakeholders over a proposal to drop to just two sides. Its plans have, however, caused uproar, with Central Glamorgan Rugby Union attempting to force an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) and hold a vote of no confidence in the WRU chair. While most in Wales agree that something must be done to address an ailing rugby nation, finding compromise and concord appears impossible.