Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all- weather at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Football, FA Cup Third Round.
- NFL, The Wild Card round begins the NFL play-offs
- Rugby Union, the third round of Pool matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and the Dubai Invitational on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Adelaide and ASB Classic
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool Round 3
Saracens v Toulouse Sunday 5.30pm
Two European Competition heavyweights play this weekend in the third round of pool games. Saracens are three times winners of this competition, last in 2019 and runners-up once. Toulouse have won six times, last in 2024, four times runners-up.
Saracens in particular though are not a team of the same quality of those tournament winning teams. This year in the ERCC they beat the weakest of the French sides in the competition Clermont 47-10 at home before losing 28-23 to the Durban Sharks with a much-changed team, and it was job done with a losing bonus point gained.
They are in the middle of a rebuilding phase, shown by their sixth place in the current Prem table at the half way point of the season with 4 wins and 5 losses, most recently 28-36 in Leicester last weekend. Mark McCall, the director of rugby, was scathing about his side’s attitude and application. If Leicester can carve them open with such ease, to lead 26-7 at the interval and 34-14 after an hour, what will Toulouse and Glasgow Warriors do to them in the Champions Cup over the next two weekends?
Saracens are introducing a lot of young players onto the core of a team including Itoje, Farrell, Daly, George etc all experienced internationals.
Toulouse were European Champions in 2024 and semi-finalists last year losing to eventual winners Bordeaux-Begles. They were ante-post favourites for another European title this year and two rounds in retain that positioning at odds of 13/5.
This despite a dramatic loss in the second round 28-21 in Glasgow from 17-3 up. In the first round they beat the Sharks 56-19.
They are top of the French top 14 table with 10 wins from 14 games averaging 40 points a game, despite a surprise 27-30 loss to Perpignan last weekend with a much rotated team ahead of this game in London.
Here I would expect all the big guns in action from Ramos, Ntamack, Kinghorn and Dupont to Willis, Marchand, Cros, Flament and Meafou in the forwards. I expect them to justify -11.5-points on the spread with Saracens in a state of flux.
11 points Toulouse -11.5 points at 10/11 generally
Kicking Off
The NFL’s new kick-off rules this season have reinvigorated the play, with the return rate spiking this year. With more returns though have come more injuries, including a surge in concussions that could prompt another look at how to manage player safety during kick-offs.
Through this season, 79.3% of kick-offs had been returned, a big jump from the 31.7% return rate last season. The rate of concussions per 100 kick-offs rose from 0.09 in 2024 to 1.18 this season roughly five times the league’s baseline concussion rate on run or pass plays.
Kick-off injuries became a storyline almost immediately this season, when Philadelphia Eagles fullback Ben VanSumeren suffered a torn patella tendon on the opening kick-off of the season. New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson, one of six players to record a kick return touchdown in 2025, suffered a big hit on a kick-off return in a Week 5 win against the Buffalo Bills. The injury resulted in a torn ACL and put him out for the season.
There have been 18 concussions on kick-off plays compared to just one in the same time period last season.
The League introduced dynamic kick-offs after just 22% of kickoffs were returned in 2023, the lowest rate in NFL history. The NFL had previously made changes to the play meant to reduce the number of returns because of the danger of high-speed collisions.
Team owners approved the new kickoff rules in a 29-3 vote in March 2024, hoping to make kickoffs both safer and more relevant.
Dynamic kick-offs cals for players on the kicking team to line up at the opposing 40-yard line, the receiving team between the 30- and 35-yard lines and returners in the “landing zone” (between the 20-yard line and the end zone).
The inaugural dynamic kickoff season saw a slight uptick in action (32.8% of kickoffs returned), and the NFL made the change permanent in the 2025 offseason while also making more tweaks in hopes of a more dramatic increase.
The most notable change is the placement of the ball at the 35-yard line on touchbacks (5 yards further up-field than in 2024 and 10 yards further than pre-dynamic kickoff). The thought was that giving the receiving team better field position on a touchback would incentivise the kicking team to aim for the landing zone and hope to make a stop on a return.
The intent of the dynamic kickoff remained the same through the changes: to bring the play back to life while eliminating the running start players had on traditional kickoffs that led to big collisions, concussions and other injuries.
This regular season there were more than twice the number of 40-plus-yard returns however there are now thoughts that the competition committee will consider more tweaks in an effort to confront the rising injuries.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th January
Happy New Year Everyone
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and on the all- weather at Lingfield and Southwell.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test Match in Sydney starting on Saturday
- NFL, Week 18 of the regular season
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane and Hong Kong
Free Tip
FA Cup ante-post
Ahead of the third-round next weekend, and following Crystal Palace’s win last season at 33-1, the annual attempt to spot some each-way ante-post value in the FA Cup.
A “non-top six” team has made the final in 12 of the last 20 years though a top six side has won the competition in 17 of those years.
These are the current odds before the sides from the top two divisions enter the competition:
Man C 9/2
Liverpool 5
Arsenal 6
Chelsea 8
Newcastle 10
Man U 16
Aston Villa 18
Tottenham 20
My thesis is that whilst every top team will rotate their line-ups in this competition especially after the busy Christmas period the priorities for the top 8-9 in the league (win the title or make the top six or qualify for Europe) and the bottom six (avoid relegation) particularly conflict with this competition and there are teams who aren’t making the top six or at risk of going down who should be prioritising this tournament. Frankly it doesn’t always work out like that, and each year I’ll raise an eyebrow when a team in 12th place in the Premier League rotates and loses in the FA Cup come February/March.
These days there is also another source of variance, no FA Cup replays, which in principle increases the odds of upsets over a one-off tie rather than bigger teams being able to have a home replay or second chance if the first game was at home.
This year I alighted on these possible teams for each-way value: Each-way terms are routinely ½ 1,2.
Everton 25/1
Bournemouth 25/1
Brighton 25/1
Fulham 40/1
Sunderland 66/1
Everton though have drawn Sunderland at home, so we can draw a line through them. Bournemouth are away at Newcastle, the same applies. Brighton are away at Manchester United.
Fulham have Middlesbrough at home, a tough Championship side admittedly.
Fulham are currently 10th in the Premier League, 13 points clear of the relegation places and fit the criteria to me always accepting that even if they progress a tough draw can happen in any round.
10 points each-way (1/2 1,2) Fulham to win the FA Cup at 40-1 Bet365 and William Hill
Holding on
Watch any NFL game and you will see offensive linemen striving to stop pass rushers reaching their Quarterback yet holding is routinely not called by today’s NFL officials. Coincidentally (or not), the NFL wants yards and points and offensive excitement.
Before 1978, offensive linemen couldn’t extend their hands to block. They had to keep their fists together and elbows out before the NFL realized that making it easier to block defensive linemen would open up the passing game.
Still, it has now got out of control. Late in a mid-season 8 game between the Vikings and Chargers, Prime Video played clips of all-pro left tackle Joe Alt’s plays during his first game back from a high ankle sprain. In every one of them, he was holding the pass rusher, to some degree.
At this point, teams should be coaching their offensive linemen to do it. It’s similar to the Legion of Boom’s approach to covering receivers. Hold them on every play because the officials won’t bog the game down by constantly throwing flags.
As to holding, there are times when they never throw a flag. Put simply, the officials have allowed the sheer volume of holding fouls to overpower the system.
The NFL wants yards and points and bets and viewers. Calling every hold that happens would directly impact each of those valuable factors of modern-day pro football.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches weekend of 20th-21st December
Happy Christmas everyone, the column will be back for the weekend of 3rd-4th January 2026.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Hereford and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle United v Chelsea and Tottenham v Liverpool.
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test in Melbourne starting on Boxing Day
- NFL, Week 16 including the New England Patriots at the Baltimore Ravens
Free Tip
Gallagher Prem Rugby Saracens versus Exeter Chiefs, Saturday 3pm
After the opening two rounds of the European competitions the Gallagher Prem returns for the Christmas period. Here sixth placed Saracens host 2nd place Exeter Chiefs on Saturday afternoon.
In the last fortnight Saracens beat (probably the weakest current French team in the ERCC) Clermont 47-10 before travelling to Durban to platy the Sharks with a team resting a number of the more experienced players and lost 28-23 winning a losing bonus point. Job done in those circumstances.
Resting Itoje, Earl and Farrell amongst others for that game is presumably with the aim of playing them here in a team that is in a modest rebuilding phase, introducing young talent into the first team. Prime amongst these is the exciting, big and very fast winger Noah Caluori who is brilliant in the aerial game.
At home this season in the domestic competition Saracens have two big wins (50-17 over Bristol and 65-14 over Sale) and a narrow 29-36 loss to champions Bath.
Exeter Chiefs have emerged from a several year period of the doldrums and a rebuild to rise to second place in the early league table with four wins and a draw from their first six matches.
Exeter have scored 39 points less than Saracens in six points but conceded 43 points fewer. Their games tend to be lower scoring. Whilst Exeter have three home wins from three (comparatively easy fixtures, Harlequins, Gloucester and Newcastle) but understandably more mixed away but with a great draw at Northampton to open the season and a win at Sale.
In the European Champions cup they started off beating the South African Cheetahs 42-12 before a creditable 31-31 at Racing92 in Paris with a much-changed team.
Exeter’s fortunes are on the up thanks in part due to overseas recruitment, the current team includes two current Australian Internationals Ikitau in the centre and Tom Hooper in the back-row alongside experienced prop Scott Sio.
Saracens are -10.5 here. Both teams are likely to be at full strength. I intend taking the Chiefs with the points given their form and 23-man depth this season to cpmpete in games like this.
12 points Exeter Chiefs +10.5 points at 10/11 generally
Contracts.
14 England cricket players signed new two-year central contracts which includes a home Ashes series in 2027 followed by a 50-over World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia.
All of the 16 players in the squad for the current Ashes in Australia have been handed a contract of at least one year. Eleven of the Ashes squad have signed two-year deals.
Four of the five with one-year contracts - batsmen Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, spinner Shoaib Bashir and seamer Matthew Potts - are not multi-format players, while 35-year-old pace bowler Mark Wood is entering the final part of a three-year contract he signed in 2023.
The decision to offer Ollie Pope and Zak Crawley just one-year deals which is, perhaps, most revealing. Pope has, in recent months, gone from vice-captain and permanent No.3 to something far more precarious. It is clear that Jacob Bethell, who has a two-year deal, is close to takign his place after Pope's Ashes performances to date.
Bethell is currently involved in all formats and, unlike Pope, will be a target for sides in the IPL and beyond. For that reason, it could be argued that he requires more of the protection which a central contract offers.
England have invested heavily in Crawley over recent years with much of the faith based on the belief he will perform in Australia. It's tempting to conclude that that faith England will now move on.
Signing one-year deals for the first time are pace bowlers Sonny Baker, Saqib Mahmood and Luke Wood, along with all-rounder Liam Dawson.
Chris Woakes, who retired from international cricket last month, drops off the list. Jonny Bairstow's two-year central contract has finally come to an end, while spinner Jack Leach also misses out. All-rounder Liam Livingstone has not played for England since the Champions Trophy in March and loses his deal, along with pace bowlers Olly Stone and Reece Topley.
There are some intriguing absences. There's no Jordan Cox, for example, who has just won the PCA's men's player of the year and looks an exceptional talent with the bat and in the field. There's no Tom Banton, either, despite his regular appearances in squads recently.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
Weekend of 13th-14th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Sunderland v Newcastle United.
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Adelaide next week
- NFL, Week 15 fixtures include the Green Bay Packers at the Denver Broncos
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages Round 2.
- Golf, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup
Pool 3 Stormers v La Rochelle 1pm Saturday
Two teams who won their first pool matches meet in the Eastern Cape this weekend in Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth).
The Stormers have won 6 in a row in the URC this season, including most recently downing unbeaten Munster away 27-21 from 15 points down. Last week they travelled to France and beat Bayonne 26-17 despite playing the last thirty minutes with 14 man after a red card.
The Stormers, who had won 23 scrum penalties this season coming into the match, dominated at the set-piece and by half-time alone their four scrums had produced three penalties and a free-kick. Here they look set to bring back Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Cobus Reinach from South Africa’s autumn tour.
La Rochelle beat Leicester Tigers 39-20 at home in the first game of this year’s ERCC. They are only 10th in the current French Top 14 table having won just 5 of 11 games.
This should be a big set-piece battle as La Rochelle, including Skelton and Alldrit in their pack, are powerful and well coached.
The spread for this game opened Stormers +14.5. By the time the news came out about the Springboks being available for selection, and potentially a La Rochelle line-up resting some players from last week, the line moved to a whopping +26.5 points. That looks excessive against an experienced Top 14 side/squad.
12 points La Rochelle +26.5 points at 10/11 generally
The 2027 Rugby World Cup Draw
The seeded draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia took place in December resulting as follows:
Pool A: New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong China, Chile
Pool B: South Africa, Italy, Georgia, Romania
Pool C: Argentina, Fiji, Spain, Canada
Pool D: Ireland, Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal,
Pool E: France, Japan, USA, Samoa
Pool F: England, Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe
Match-ups for a round of 16 are pre-determined with the winners of Pools A-D facing the four best third place finishers. Winners of Pools E-F will face runners-up. However the ideal route for teams in the draw is: 1. Be drawn in Pool E or F 2. Win that Pool. Doing this will see you avoid any other pool winners until the semi-final stage.
On seeding the two-halves of the draw at the Quarter-final stage would be:
New Zealand v South Africa
France v Fiji
-----
England v Australia
Ireland v Argentina
England for example have a nice looking pool they should win, then a potential last-sixteen tie against Italy but potentially a tough Quarter-final against the hosts, who might be considerably better come 2027. In good news they and Ireland, if results go according to plan, would be in the other half of the draw to New Zealand, South Africa and France.
Ireland cannot take anything at a World Cup for granted but their Scotland/Uruguay & Portugal draw could not have gone better followed by a third place team ahead of an Argentina Quarter
It’s a really tough draw for Scotland. If they come second in their group (likely because of Ireland), they will play the Group E winners in the last 16 almost certainly France.
Wales meanwhile are most likely to have a knockout run of Fiji then France.
Ante-post odds two years out are as follows:
South Africa 5/2
New Zealand 4/1
France 9/2
England 9/2
Ireland 13/2
Australia 9/1
Argentina 16/1
Scotland 33/1
Fiji 50/1
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all- weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Aston Villa v Arsenal
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Australia in Brisbane continues
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to conclude the 2025 season
- NFL, Week 14 fixtures include the Chicago Bears at the Green Bay Packers
- Rugby Union, the start of the European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages
- Golf, the Grant Thornton Invitational on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
2025-26 European Rugby Champions Cup Ante-Post
The 2025-26 ERCC begins on Friday with the first round of pool matches. The final takes place in Bilbao in May. We had a nice ante-post winner last year with Bordeaux and I am going to (try to) repeat with another French Top 14 team. The French teams have a big structural advantage in the size of their league salary cap and consequently squad firepower. Leinster are perennially boosted by the structure of the Irish game, financially heavily supported by the IRFU, with the huge academy system producing talent for the provinces giving enviable squad depth too.
This year Bath might also be contenders, whilst the South African teams will still face the logistical challenges of travel to and from Europe and often rotated team selection with the pool games sandwiched between URC games the week before/after.
A reminder of the structure of the tournament. For the purposes of the draw, the 24 qualifying clubs were separated into two tiers, Tier 1 and Tier 2, based on their league finishing position; with the winners of each domestic competition (Bath, Toulouse and Leinster) and the defending Champions Cup winners (Bordeaux) seeded in the top tier. The remaining twenty teams will be seeded in the second tier.
Like previous seasons, the four pools are made up of six teams, with each pool containing two clubs from each of leagues; Each team will play the four teams not from its own league once with the top four teams advancing to the round of 16, where the top two teams in each group are given home advantage.
A few days before the start of the tournament the head of the market is as follows:
Toulouse 5/2
Leinster 11/4
Bordeaux 7/2
Bath 15/2
La Rochelle 16/1
Bulls 20/1
Northampton 20/1
Toulon 20/1
Saracens 25/1
Each way terms are one-third two places with various firms.
I have no issue with the prices at the front but this pool format does provide some variance. Last year for example Toulouse, tournament holders and favourites were only the fifth seed coming out of the pool and their path through involved an away game at Toulon in the quarters and an away game at Bordeaux in the semi’s which they lost, all because of a tough pool they didn’t win.
I think there is a firm value play this year and that is Toulon at 20-1. Toulon are currently third in the French Top 14 and won their ERCC pool to finish as 4th seed into the knockouts last year. They are renowned for considerable home advantage in a tight stadium with vociferous support on the Med coast, a dangerous and experienced side containing the likes of Ollivon, Serin, Gros, Villiere and Jaminet of current/recnt French internationals.
This year their pool has a couple of tough spots but crucially contains no South African team, the only one of the four pools not to do so. They’ll be favourites to beat Edinburgh and Gloucester away and vitally the draw has given them their two toughest opponents Bath and Munster at home. They’d have been underdogs to both away. I think a pool win is possible and a top 8 seed/top two pool finish very likely.
10 points each way (1/3 1,2) Toulon to win the European Rugby Champions Cup at 20/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, 18/1 Bet365, 16/1 Betfred
Hey Big Spender.
Premier League clubs spent £3bn in the summer transfer window, more than all the other top European leagues in Spain, Italy, Germany and France combined. Over the previous five summer windows the Premier League’s was responsible for 46% of the spending of the top five leagues. Now it is 51%.
The Premier League’s global appeal and financial muscle prompted Real Madrid, Juventus and Barcelona to launch the ill-fated European Super League. The collapse of that project came after the six English clubs withdrew. The long term prospect of a Super League remains as a reminder to the English clubs that there is growing unhappiness at the financial disparities.
On the one hand there is the talent drain to England becoming even more pronounced, but on the other European clubs can cash in from selling even mediocre players for inflated fees.
Last season the Premier League champions, Liverpool, received about £175m in domestic and overseas TV money, compared with £72m for Bayern Munich, £69m for Napoli and £42m for PSG. The Bundesliga is now in a situation where it is having to farm out the English rights for its Friday-night matches free of charge to try to generate interest.
This all means there will be even more focus by continental clubs and leagues on finding alternative revenue streams.
Fifa’s revamped Club World Cup provided Real, PSG and others with a cash injection of between £40m-£80m and there may be pressure from clubs now for that to expand from 12 European teams.
La Liga’s plan to play domestic league matches in the United States (which was to begin with Barcelona v Villarreal in Miami this month, plans now shelved) is a good example of different strategies that leagues are exploring such as international expansion and investing in stadium infrastructure.
Real Madrid may be the club with the biggest revenues but their spending is relatively conservative these days. No fewer than seven English clubs outspent Real this summer including Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
