Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th January
Happy New Year Everyone
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and on the all- weather at Lingfield and Southwell.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test Match in Sydney starting on Saturday
- NFL, Week 18 of the regular season
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane and Hong Kong
Free Tip
FA Cup ante-post
Ahead of the third-round next weekend, and following Crystal Palace’s win last season at 33-1, the annual attempt to spot some each-way ante-post value in the FA Cup.
A “non-top six” team has made the final in 12 of the last 20 years though a top six side has won the competition in 17 of those years.
These are the current odds before the sides from the top two divisions enter the competition:
Man C 9/2
Liverpool 5
Arsenal 6
Chelsea 8
Newcastle 10
Man U 16
Aston Villa 18
Tottenham 20
My thesis is that whilst every top team will rotate their line-ups in this competition especially after the busy Christmas period the priorities for the top 8-9 in the league (win the title or make the top six or qualify for Europe) and the bottom six (avoid relegation) particularly conflict with this competition and there are teams who aren’t making the top six or at risk of going down who should be prioritising this tournament. Frankly it doesn’t always work out like that, and each year I’ll raise an eyebrow when a team in 12th place in the Premier League rotates and loses in the FA Cup come February/March.
These days there is also another source of variance, no FA Cup replays, which in principle increases the odds of upsets over a one-off tie rather than bigger teams being able to have a home replay or second chance if the first game was at home.
This year I alighted on these possible teams for each-way value: Each-way terms are routinely ½ 1,2.
Everton 25/1
Bournemouth 25/1
Brighton 25/1
Fulham 40/1
Sunderland 66/1
Everton though have drawn Sunderland at home, so we can draw a line through them. Bournemouth are away at Newcastle, the same applies. Brighton are away at Manchester United.
Fulham have Middlesbrough at home, a tough Championship side admittedly.
Fulham are currently 10th in the Premier League, 13 points clear of the relegation places and fit the criteria to me always accepting that even if they progress a tough draw can happen in any round.
10 points each-way (1/2 1,2) Fulham to win the FA Cup at 40-1 Bet365 and William Hill
Holding on
Watch any NFL game and you will see offensive linemen striving to stop pass rushers reaching their Quarterback yet holding is routinely not called by today’s NFL officials. Coincidentally (or not), the NFL wants yards and points and offensive excitement.
Before 1978, offensive linemen couldn’t extend their hands to block. They had to keep their fists together and elbows out before the NFL realized that making it easier to block defensive linemen would open up the passing game.
Still, it has now got out of control. Late in a mid-season 8 game between the Vikings and Chargers, Prime Video played clips of all-pro left tackle Joe Alt’s plays during his first game back from a high ankle sprain. In every one of them, he was holding the pass rusher, to some degree.
At this point, teams should be coaching their offensive linemen to do it. It’s similar to the Legion of Boom’s approach to covering receivers. Hold them on every play because the officials won’t bog the game down by constantly throwing flags.
As to holding, there are times when they never throw a flag. Put simply, the officials have allowed the sheer volume of holding fouls to overpower the system.
The NFL wants yards and points and bets and viewers. Calling every hold that happens would directly impact each of those valuable factors of modern-day pro football.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches weekend of 20th-21st December
Happy Christmas everyone, the column will be back for the weekend of 3rd-4th January 2026.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Hereford and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle United v Chelsea and Tottenham v Liverpool.
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test in Melbourne starting on Boxing Day
- NFL, Week 16 including the New England Patriots at the Baltimore Ravens
Free Tip
Gallagher Prem Rugby Saracens versus Exeter Chiefs, Saturday 3pm
After the opening two rounds of the European competitions the Gallagher Prem returns for the Christmas period. Here sixth placed Saracens host 2nd place Exeter Chiefs on Saturday afternoon.
In the last fortnight Saracens beat (probably the weakest current French team in the ERCC) Clermont 47-10 before travelling to Durban to platy the Sharks with a team resting a number of the more experienced players and lost 28-23 winning a losing bonus point. Job done in those circumstances.
Resting Itoje, Earl and Farrell amongst others for that game is presumably with the aim of playing them here in a team that is in a modest rebuilding phase, introducing young talent into the first team. Prime amongst these is the exciting, big and very fast winger Noah Caluori who is brilliant in the aerial game.
At home this season in the domestic competition Saracens have two big wins (50-17 over Bristol and 65-14 over Sale) and a narrow 29-36 loss to champions Bath.
Exeter Chiefs have emerged from a several year period of the doldrums and a rebuild to rise to second place in the early league table with four wins and a draw from their first six matches.
Exeter have scored 39 points less than Saracens in six points but conceded 43 points fewer. Their games tend to be lower scoring. Whilst Exeter have three home wins from three (comparatively easy fixtures, Harlequins, Gloucester and Newcastle) but understandably more mixed away but with a great draw at Northampton to open the season and a win at Sale.
In the European Champions cup they started off beating the South African Cheetahs 42-12 before a creditable 31-31 at Racing92 in Paris with a much-changed team.
Exeter’s fortunes are on the up thanks in part due to overseas recruitment, the current team includes two current Australian Internationals Ikitau in the centre and Tom Hooper in the back-row alongside experienced prop Scott Sio.
Saracens are -10.5 here. Both teams are likely to be at full strength. I intend taking the Chiefs with the points given their form and 23-man depth this season to cpmpete in games like this.
12 points Exeter Chiefs +10.5 points at 10/11 generally
Contracts.
14 England cricket players signed new two-year central contracts which includes a home Ashes series in 2027 followed by a 50-over World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia.
All of the 16 players in the squad for the current Ashes in Australia have been handed a contract of at least one year. Eleven of the Ashes squad have signed two-year deals.
Four of the five with one-year contracts - batsmen Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, spinner Shoaib Bashir and seamer Matthew Potts - are not multi-format players, while 35-year-old pace bowler Mark Wood is entering the final part of a three-year contract he signed in 2023.
The decision to offer Ollie Pope and Zak Crawley just one-year deals which is, perhaps, most revealing. Pope has, in recent months, gone from vice-captain and permanent No.3 to something far more precarious. It is clear that Jacob Bethell, who has a two-year deal, is close to takign his place after Pope's Ashes performances to date.
Bethell is currently involved in all formats and, unlike Pope, will be a target for sides in the IPL and beyond. For that reason, it could be argued that he requires more of the protection which a central contract offers.
England have invested heavily in Crawley over recent years with much of the faith based on the belief he will perform in Australia. It's tempting to conclude that that faith England will now move on.
Signing one-year deals for the first time are pace bowlers Sonny Baker, Saqib Mahmood and Luke Wood, along with all-rounder Liam Dawson.
Chris Woakes, who retired from international cricket last month, drops off the list. Jonny Bairstow's two-year central contract has finally come to an end, while spinner Jack Leach also misses out. All-rounder Liam Livingstone has not played for England since the Champions Trophy in March and loses his deal, along with pace bowlers Olly Stone and Reece Topley.
There are some intriguing absences. There's no Jordan Cox, for example, who has just won the PCA's men's player of the year and looks an exceptional talent with the bat and in the field. There's no Tom Banton, either, despite his regular appearances in squads recently.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
Weekend of 13th-14th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Sunderland v Newcastle United.
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Adelaide next week
- NFL, Week 15 fixtures include the Green Bay Packers at the Denver Broncos
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages Round 2.
- Golf, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup
Pool 3 Stormers v La Rochelle 1pm Saturday
Two teams who won their first pool matches meet in the Eastern Cape this weekend in Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth).
The Stormers have won 6 in a row in the URC this season, including most recently downing unbeaten Munster away 27-21 from 15 points down. Last week they travelled to France and beat Bayonne 26-17 despite playing the last thirty minutes with 14 man after a red card.
The Stormers, who had won 23 scrum penalties this season coming into the match, dominated at the set-piece and by half-time alone their four scrums had produced three penalties and a free-kick. Here they look set to bring back Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Cobus Reinach from South Africa’s autumn tour.
La Rochelle beat Leicester Tigers 39-20 at home in the first game of this year’s ERCC. They are only 10th in the current French Top 14 table having won just 5 of 11 games.
This should be a big set-piece battle as La Rochelle, including Skelton and Alldrit in their pack, are powerful and well coached.
The spread for this game opened Stormers +14.5. By the time the news came out about the Springboks being available for selection, and potentially a La Rochelle line-up resting some players from last week, the line moved to a whopping +26.5 points. That looks excessive against an experienced Top 14 side/squad.
12 points La Rochelle +26.5 points at 10/11 generally
The 2027 Rugby World Cup Draw
The seeded draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia took place in December resulting as follows:
Pool A: New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong China, Chile
Pool B: South Africa, Italy, Georgia, Romania
Pool C: Argentina, Fiji, Spain, Canada
Pool D: Ireland, Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal,
Pool E: France, Japan, USA, Samoa
Pool F: England, Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe
Match-ups for a round of 16 are pre-determined with the winners of Pools A-D facing the four best third place finishers. Winners of Pools E-F will face runners-up. However the ideal route for teams in the draw is: 1. Be drawn in Pool E or F 2. Win that Pool. Doing this will see you avoid any other pool winners until the semi-final stage.
On seeding the two-halves of the draw at the Quarter-final stage would be:
New Zealand v South Africa
France v Fiji
-----
England v Australia
Ireland v Argentina
England for example have a nice looking pool they should win, then a potential last-sixteen tie against Italy but potentially a tough Quarter-final against the hosts, who might be considerably better come 2027. In good news they and Ireland, if results go according to plan, would be in the other half of the draw to New Zealand, South Africa and France.
Ireland cannot take anything at a World Cup for granted but their Scotland/Uruguay & Portugal draw could not have gone better followed by a third place team ahead of an Argentina Quarter
It’s a really tough draw for Scotland. If they come second in their group (likely because of Ireland), they will play the Group E winners in the last 16 almost certainly France.
Wales meanwhile are most likely to have a knockout run of Fiji then France.
Ante-post odds two years out are as follows:
South Africa 5/2
New Zealand 4/1
France 9/2
England 9/2
Ireland 13/2
Australia 9/1
Argentina 16/1
Scotland 33/1
Fiji 50/1
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all- weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Aston Villa v Arsenal
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Australia in Brisbane continues
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to conclude the 2025 season
- NFL, Week 14 fixtures include the Chicago Bears at the Green Bay Packers
- Rugby Union, the start of the European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages
- Golf, the Grant Thornton Invitational on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
2025-26 European Rugby Champions Cup Ante-Post
The 2025-26 ERCC begins on Friday with the first round of pool matches. The final takes place in Bilbao in May. We had a nice ante-post winner last year with Bordeaux and I am going to (try to) repeat with another French Top 14 team. The French teams have a big structural advantage in the size of their league salary cap and consequently squad firepower. Leinster are perennially boosted by the structure of the Irish game, financially heavily supported by the IRFU, with the huge academy system producing talent for the provinces giving enviable squad depth too.
This year Bath might also be contenders, whilst the South African teams will still face the logistical challenges of travel to and from Europe and often rotated team selection with the pool games sandwiched between URC games the week before/after.
A reminder of the structure of the tournament. For the purposes of the draw, the 24 qualifying clubs were separated into two tiers, Tier 1 and Tier 2, based on their league finishing position; with the winners of each domestic competition (Bath, Toulouse and Leinster) and the defending Champions Cup winners (Bordeaux) seeded in the top tier. The remaining twenty teams will be seeded in the second tier.
Like previous seasons, the four pools are made up of six teams, with each pool containing two clubs from each of leagues; Each team will play the four teams not from its own league once with the top four teams advancing to the round of 16, where the top two teams in each group are given home advantage.
A few days before the start of the tournament the head of the market is as follows:
Toulouse 5/2
Leinster 11/4
Bordeaux 7/2
Bath 15/2
La Rochelle 16/1
Bulls 20/1
Northampton 20/1
Toulon 20/1
Saracens 25/1
Each way terms are one-third two places with various firms.
I have no issue with the prices at the front but this pool format does provide some variance. Last year for example Toulouse, tournament holders and favourites were only the fifth seed coming out of the pool and their path through involved an away game at Toulon in the quarters and an away game at Bordeaux in the semi’s which they lost, all because of a tough pool they didn’t win.
I think there is a firm value play this year and that is Toulon at 20-1. Toulon are currently third in the French Top 14 and won their ERCC pool to finish as 4th seed into the knockouts last year. They are renowned for considerable home advantage in a tight stadium with vociferous support on the Med coast, a dangerous and experienced side containing the likes of Ollivon, Serin, Gros, Villiere and Jaminet of current/recnt French internationals.
This year their pool has a couple of tough spots but crucially contains no South African team, the only one of the four pools not to do so. They’ll be favourites to beat Edinburgh and Gloucester away and vitally the draw has given them their two toughest opponents Bath and Munster at home. They’d have been underdogs to both away. I think a pool win is possible and a top 8 seed/top two pool finish very likely.
10 points each way (1/3 1,2) Toulon to win the European Rugby Champions Cup at 20/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, 18/1 Bet365, 16/1 Betfred
Hey Big Spender.
Premier League clubs spent £3bn in the summer transfer window, more than all the other top European leagues in Spain, Italy, Germany and France combined. Over the previous five summer windows the Premier League’s was responsible for 46% of the spending of the top five leagues. Now it is 51%.
The Premier League’s global appeal and financial muscle prompted Real Madrid, Juventus and Barcelona to launch the ill-fated European Super League. The collapse of that project came after the six English clubs withdrew. The long term prospect of a Super League remains as a reminder to the English clubs that there is growing unhappiness at the financial disparities.
On the one hand there is the talent drain to England becoming even more pronounced, but on the other European clubs can cash in from selling even mediocre players for inflated fees.
Last season the Premier League champions, Liverpool, received about £175m in domestic and overseas TV money, compared with £72m for Bayern Munich, £69m for Napoli and £42m for PSG. The Bundesliga is now in a situation where it is having to farm out the English rights for its Friday-night matches free of charge to try to generate interest.
This all means there will be even more focus by continental clubs and leagues on finding alternative revenue streams.
Fifa’s revamped Club World Cup provided Real, PSG and others with a cash injection of between £40m-£80m and there may be pressure from clubs now for that to expand from 12 European teams.
La Liga’s plan to play domestic league matches in the United States (which was to begin with Barcelona v Villarreal in Miami this month, plans now shelved) is a good example of different strategies that leagues are exploring such as international expansion and investing in stadium infrastructure.
Real Madrid may be the club with the biggest revenues but their spending is relatively conservative these days. No fewer than seven English clubs outspent Real this summer including Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster and Newbury and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Arsenal
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Australia in Brisbane next week.
- Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
- NFL, Week 13 fixtures include the Kansas City Chiefs at the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Thursday.
- Rugby Union, the Autumn International season fixtures conclude with Wales v South Africa
- Golf, the Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the Australian Open and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
Formula One, Qatar Grand Prix Sunday 4pm
The Formula 1 season continues this weekend with the 23rd and penultimate round of 2025 at the Losail International Circuit.
The final Sprint weekend of the season will also be contested in Qatar, so a total of 33 points will be up for grabs for winning both races. Max Verstappen won the Sunday race last year.
World Championship standings heading into the two Middle East races to finish the season are Norris 390, Piastri 366 and Verstappen 366 points. This after the two McLaren cars were disqualified in Las Vegas last week because the thickness of the rearmost skid of both cars was less than required. F1 teams chase every edge and McLaren's aggressive car set up backfired but it does indicate a concern about their late season pace compared to Verstappen. They can't take the same risk here.
Before both McLarens were thrown out, Norris had a 30-point lead over his team-mate and was 42 ahead of Red Bull's Max Verstappen with just two races to go and a maximum of 58 points available. In that scenario, as long as Norris did not lose more than five points to Piastri at the penultimate race and 17 to Verstappen, he would have left Doha as world champion for the first time.
Now Norris' lead is down to 24 points, and Verstappen has vaulted up to be level on points with Piastri albeit still technically third overall as he has one fewer win.
Norris remains a strong favourite, but Verstappen is now properly in the game. To close on Norris by 12 points on average over the remaining two races is still a big ask, but it's not that long since Verstappen's victory in Austin last month meant he had reduced his deficit to the championship leader (at that time Piastri) by 64 points over four races.
If Norris gains just two points over both rivals over the course of the Qatar weekend, he will be world champion. If he fails to do that, the title race goes to the final race in Abu Dhabi the following weekend.
Our pre-season each way position Oscar Piastri (7/1) won seven races in the first half of the season but hasn’t won since Zandvoort at the end of August 8 races ago.
Verstappen meanwhile has won 4 of the last seven races having won just 2 of the first 15 races of the season. Red Bull have out-developed McLaren through the summer such that the Red Bull has if not been the fast car been a close challenger in the second half of the season, including finishing third in Sao Paolo following a pit-lane start in last place.
Prices for this Grand Prix are
Verstappen 11/8
Norris 15/8
Piastri 8/1
12/1 bar
There is an extra level of variance in the race. Tyre limit has been mandated at 25 laps so all teams will have to run at least two pit stops. With Verstappen in such form and McLaren with the ride issues and only so many possible winners strange races aside odds against Verstappen looks good to me.
15 points Max Verstappen to win the Qatar Grand Prix at 11/8 Betfred, Star Sports 5/4 generally
Cooked.
The County Championship’s controversial experiment with the Australian Kookaburra ball appears to be over after directors of cricket agreed to ditch it for next summer.
Encouraged by the England management, with an eye on future Ashes tours, starting with this winter’s, the Kookaburra ball has been used in the County Championship for the past three seasons. In 2023, it was used for two rounds, before an expansion to four of the 14 rounds in 2024 and 2025.
Now, following a post-season meeting between directors of cricket it has been decided that the Kookaburra ball will not be used next summer.
This means that all 14 rounds in 2026 will be played with the Dukes, which is the default ball in England and used for home Test matches. The Dukes is British made, hand-stitched, and known for greater lateral movement. The Australian Kookaburra is machine-stitched and, historically, has been less friendly to bowlers. It is used in Test matches in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.
The experiment was first recommended by Sir Andrew Strauss’s ill-fated high-performance review of 2022. The aim was to challenge English bowlers, improving seamers’ ability to bowl in unhelpful conditions, encouraging the selection of quicker bowlers, and promoting the use of spin, which is often reduced to a fringe pursuit in county cricket.
The full results of the experiment will not be known for some years, but it did at least contribute to the increase in the amount of spin bowled in the domestic game. In 2024, 50% more spin was bowled in the Kookaburra rounds than the Dukes rounds.
The trouble was that it produced some dull cricket, and plenty of draws as the bat held sway over the ball. In 2024, when the experiment was trialed on soft early-season pitches, 17 of the 18 matches in the opening two rounds were drawn. This year, with the experiment moved to mid-summer, Surrey racked up a club-record score of 820 for nine amid another nationwide run-glut.
The doomed Strauss review recommended a pilot of the Kookaburra in county cricket, which was then a graveyard for batsmen with medium-fast seamers running amok. It had rarely felt more different to Test cricket and was not providing England with the tools that thrive at the highest level: technically sound batsmen, bowlers with high pace, and high-class spinners.
It did not suit county cricket. The pitches were too soft for it, or the bowlers were simply not equipped with the skill sets to prise wickets out with it. Draws, and some dull cricket, followed.
The end of the experiment implies the deepening of a disconnect between the counties and the national team. The counties will do what suits them, and England will do what suits them.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
