Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Salisbury and York.
- Olympics, the 2024 games begin in Paris
- Cricket, The Hundred competition continuesns
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa
- Golf, the TPC Twin Cities Championship.
- Tennis, the ATP Olympics at Roland Garros
Qatar Goodwood Festival
Our next racing package the Qatar Goodwood festival from Tuesday 30th July-Saturday 3rd August. Get all of Neil Channing’s write ups and bets here
Free Tip
The Hundred: Welsh Fire v Oval Invincibles 2.30pm Sunday in Cardiff
This is the first weekend of the 2024 competition, the fourth season of the much maligned/format of the future (depending on your viewpoint) established by the ECB.
A reminder that the Hundred is made up of 8 regional teams, three of which progress from the group stage to the knockouts at the end of the month. A core of players from each team have remained with each side since inception, and each contains at least one centrally contracted England player. Each march through an NFL/IPL style draft process squads are built out from those newly available at different salary price points, with each team operating within a salary cap to promote parity.
As the global franchise competition calendar is ever more crowded this year the Hundred clashes with T20 competitions in the USA and Canada, and because the Hundred can’t match the financial rewards on offer from those leagues, this year’s Hundred is definitely short of star-power.
At this early stage of the Hundred England players are still involved in the West Indies test series too and therefore unavailable.
The defending champions are the Oval Invincibles, notionally based are Surrey/Kent players. They opened the 2024 competition on Tuesday at home to Birmingham, and on a spicy swinging bouncy pitch chased 90 to win for the loss of only two wickets.
The game showcased a real strength of the side, the bowling attack has all bases covered and now with a pace threesome of Spencer Johnson (a really good tall left arm quick), Saqib Mahmood back from injury and Sam Curran they are going to be a handful. On flatter pitches, they can call on one of the best white ball spinners in leggie Adam Zampa.
In the batting line-up there's no Heinrich Klaasen this season. Instead fellow South African Donovan Ferreira will play the role of the middle-order hitter. One weakness is a longer tail than ideal if the top order fails to fire.
The hosts here the Welsh Fire opened their campaign on Thursday at Manchester and won clinically restricting the Originals to the third lowest Hundred score ever batting first.
Of their first choice three overseas, Haris Rauf is currently absent at the MLC, and Matt Henry missed the first game leaving Glenn Phillips in the side.
Fire were much improved last season after two poor opening seasons. A play-off spot came after a squad revamp and a “moneyball” approach to squad construction based off data analysis. If Jonny Bairstow rediscovers his mojo the front five with the bat is very good (a young English middle order of Abell, Clarke and Kohler-Cadmore is talented). Mason Crane and Roelof van der Merwe complement each other in the spin department and the whole side is packed with nuggety domestic performers. Of those David Willey is still an all-rounder who can wins games with bat or ball.
Outright odds for the game are the Invincibles 4/6 Fire 6/5, so home underdogs. Not that there should be much home advantage at any Hundred ground.
It’s worth remembering that this is even more high variance a format than T20. With a hundred balls to go at, a bad start on a fresh pitch or in poor weather can make it very difficult to recover. We’ve seen that in the first three games of the 2024 tournament already where every side batting first has struggled mightily and it has to be said the standard has been very poor.
It’s tempting to suggest, given that the new white ball swings prodigiously and threatens the scoring potential of the top orders on the evidence of the three games so far, a value bet in the top batsman market for either side. So far top scores from teams batting first this year have been 25 batting 1, 45 batting 8 and 26 batting 9!
Candidates might be Luke Wells at 10-1 and David Willey at 14-1 for the Fire batting 6 and 7 and Donovan Ferreira and Tom Lammonby both at 10-1 batting 6 and 7. Take your pick, I am going to try Willey and Ferreira for small stakes alongside backing the Welsh Fire at odds against.
15 points Welsh Fire to beat the Oval Invincibles at 6/5
6 points David Willey Top Welsh Fire batsman at 14/1
6 points Donovan Ferreira Top Oval Invincibles batsman at 10/1
All prices Bet365 with more firms to follow
The Hundred
When the ECB first proposed a new T20 competition to the 18 first class counties in 2016, the main objective was simple: Making money. The IPL currently earns about ten times as much from TV rights than India Internationals and the same thing was the aim in England. This would finance English cricket and the cash-strapped counties (who were compelled to vote for the project) for generations to come.
The ECB missed out on the chance to trademark and license the T20 format when they introduced it at the professional level in 2003 so a new format had to be created.
In the years that followed expenses more than tripled from the original projections, which in turn reduced the potential profits considerably. Even with all of these add-ons, the ECB declared that The Hundred made an annual profit in each of its three years so far. These figures have been widely questioned though. They don’t factor in the tens of millions of pounds spent in the years before 2020 which led to The Hundred taking its current form.
Now the ECB will sell stakes in the eight Hundred teams later this year and says the competition “will play a vital role in the future of our sport”. An agreement between the ECB and the 18 first-class counties has been reached over the distribution of funds from the sales, set to be worth hundreds of millions. The eight hosts of the teams will be given a 51% stake, which they can sell or keep, with the remaining 49% in each team sold by the ECB.
Money raised from selling the 49% stakes in each team will be distributed between the 18 first-class counties, the MCC and the recreational game. The eight hosts that receive a 51% stake can either keep all of it, part of it, or sell it all. They will indicate their decision to the ECB, with the sale of those stakes also being handled centrally.
The eight are Lord’s (MCC/London Spirit), The Oval (Surrey/Oval Invincibles), Southampton (Hampshire/Southern Brave), Cardiff (Glamorgan/Welsh Fire), Trent Bridge (Nottinghamshire/Trent Rockets), Edgbaston (Warwickshire/Birmingham Phoenix), Old Trafford (Lancashire/Manchester Originals) and Headingley (Yorkshire/Northern Superchargers).
One thing which must be acknowledged is that even considering the sale of teams or the competition as a whole means that Plan A has failed. The Hundred was supposed to be very profitable from Year 1, with the ability to grow from there to near-IPL revenue.
In terms of potential investors, an Indian billionaire might look at the possibility of extending the IPL (and its international window) to four months and consider that a £20m investment in London Spirit is worth it if it makes it more likely they can make more profit with their main team.
In the months to come we will see what a stake in each Hundred franchise is worth and who the new partners are and speculate what they will bring to the party. Noises are that potential investors are unhappy at being asked to take a minority stake with no control over the cricket operations, and generally questioning of valuations as a result. We’ll see shortly.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Olympics, the 2024 games begin in Paris next week
- Cricket, The third test match between England and the West Indies at Edgbaston next week
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, Summer Internationals
- Golf, the Barracuda Championship in the World Golf Championships.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Atlanta, Croatia and Kitzbuhel
Qatar Goodwood Festival
Our next racing package the Qatar Goodwood festival from Tuesday 30th July-Saturday 3rd August. Get all of Neil Channing’s write ups and bets here
Free Tip
T20 blast Somerset v Sussex Thursday 18th July 6.30pm
This is the final week of T20 Blast group games, and by Friday night we’ll know the Quarter final line up, with those matches played after the Hundred in early September. Blast scheduling is unusual this year due to the clash with the T20 World Cup with the Group stage matches crammed into six weeks then a seven week wait until the knock-out stages.
Thursday night sees the penultimate matches including this one in the South Group in Taunton.
Hosts Somerset, the defending Blast champions, are third in the South Group with 15 points and need a win from their final two games to guarantee a Quarter Final spot. Visitors Sussex are second on 16 points and already guaranteed a knock-out place. For both teams a top two Group stage finish guarantees a home Quarter-Final.
In the final matches on Friday night Somerset travel to Cardiff to play Glamorgan, Sussex host Middlesex.
Somerset’s team features canny experienced bowlers and a number of exciting young batsmen. Taunton is one of the smaller grounds on the domestic circuit and is typically high scoring, which suits this big hitting batting line up
In the 12 Somerset blast games so far Tom Banton has 404 runs at an average of 50 and a strike rate of 145 including three fifties. 404 runs is sixth in the competition season to date. He is comfortably Somerset’s top scorer ahead of Kohler-Cadmore 282, Abell 250 and Smeed 246
At 25 Banton is an opening batsman and flamboyant strokemaker that has been selected in England T20 squads and is experienced in T20 franchise leagues worldwide including spells playing for KKR, Brisbane Heat, MI Cape Town and the Northern Superchargers in the Hundred. He has 3,300 career runs in the format at a strike rate of 142.
Here he will have to deal with Sussex’s main threat, veteran left arm quick Tymal Mills who with 21 wickets is the joint third top wicket-taker in the competition so far this season .
He’s a solid bet to be Somerset top scorer here.
10 points Tom Banton Somerset Top scorer at 100/30 with Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 27/10 BetVictor, 13/5 William Hill
Scrums
In an attempt to create a better spectacle and attract new fans World Rugby have introduced law changes focussed on the scrum.
The scrum is underappreciated as the casual fan views it as slowing down the game but at its core scrums lay down a statement of intent in a battle of strength, power and skill, a means to attack and assert dominance.
The latest move from World Rugby to ban the option of a scrum from a free-kick shows that the game’s governing body takes another step towards making the set-piece irrelevant in the modern era.
The idea of the removal of the scrum option is to stop resets and ‘set-piece dead time’ whilst it is also primed to address the ‘lack of space’ on the pitch. However more scrums equals more fatigued players equals more defensive gaps.
The scrum was there initially to restart the game much like a lineout but what makes both set-pieces unique and even more special in rugby is that they are both contestable. In rugby league, the former cannot even be considered a contest, whilst the latter doesn’t even exist in the code. Even in football, throw-ins are seldom contested.
It is obvious that teams will attempt to concede a free kick if they are struggling in the scrums There are no less than nine actions at a scrum that can result in a free-kick for the opposition team, providing nine different avenues for a pack that is being overwhelmed to escape the scrum.
Then there are the laws being trialled and bound to be pushed through to the top of the game if they are deemed successful by whatever metric World Rugby want it to be.
This includes the introduction of the 30-second shot clock for scrum and lineout setting and the protection of the nine at the base of the scrum, ruck and at the maul.
This will inevitably lead to selectors and coaches favouring more athletic front-rowers, with slightly fatter flankers eventually being tasked with getting the basics of scrummaging done as the big front-row forwards get pushed closer to extinction.
Rugby is and wants to continue to be the game for all shapes and sizes but what will happen to players who comfortably tip the scales over 120kgs if the scrum draws close to its execution date?
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Football, The Euro 24 final.
- Cricket, The second test match between England and the West Indies at Trent Bridge next week
- Rugby Union, Summer Internationals include New Zealand v England and South Africa v Ireland
- Golf, the Open next week at Royal Troon.
- Tennis, the ATP International Hall of Fame Championships in Rhode Island next week
Qatar Goodwood Festival
Our next racing package the Qatar Goodwood festival from Tuesday 30th July-Saturday 3rd August. Get all of Neil Channing’s write ups and bets here
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Free Tip Rugby, Australia v Wales Second Test, Saturday 10.30am Another round of Summer Internationals this weekend. New Zealand play England in Auckland after their one-point win in Dunedin last weekend and I would expect them to improve considerably in Auckland whilst South Africa and Ireland meet in Durban where Ireland now look under-matched minus four key players. I think the best betting opportunity for this coming weekend comes in in the Melbourne test between Australia and Wales. Last weekend Wales lost the first test in Sydney 25-16, their 8th defeat in a row against a background of a rebuilding team and huge financial problems in the Welsh regions. Those eight defeats stretch back to the Rugby World Cup quarter final against Argentina, the whole of the Six Nations and then a trouncing by a makeshift South Africa side in June. Warren Gatland returned as Wales coach in late 2022 and since his return Wales have just six wins from 20 matches. Retirements leave Gatland experimenting on the hoof, blooding players and introducing new combinations through the side. Gatland doesn’t really know his best team yet which means plenty of players are getting an opportunity during this rebuild. Eight of the matchday 23 last weekend had three or less caps and three players were making their debuts. Against that background a nine-point defeat was a creditable result but it nevertheless saw Wales drop out of the top 10 of the World rankings. Unfortunately we and they can expect Australia to be better this week that last. Sydney was Australia’s first game of the season (Wales’ sixth) and the first game under the coaching regime of ex Ireland coach Joe Schmidt. Schmidt’s teams are always well organised and play attacking game plans in defined patterns and that style of play takes time to develop. Already in the First Test Australia had dominance up front in the scrums and in open play Wales struggled to stop their powerful ball carriers. On the downside Australia’s kicking game needed a vast improvement and it allowed Wales to remain in the contest in what could and probably should have been a 20-point plus margin of victory. As well as Wales lacking quality and depth in the front-row they also lack attacking power. They don’t have giant forwards to crash over the gain line and they don’t have backs that can unpick defences through guile and invention. First time round, Gatland’s Welsh teams would wear opponents down through multiple stages waiting for a gap to open up. These days though defences are so well marshalled that more subtlety is required, and/or players that can physically overpower their opponents. Wales don’t have these players currently. I would expect Australia to improve week-on-week and am far from sure that Wales have that in them. With a handicap quote of -10 indicating a similar margin of Australian victory to last week, I think that’s overly conservative. 11 points Australia -9 at 10/11 William Hill and -10 at 10/11 generally |
All Change.
F1’s Governing body the FIA has revealed plans for cars to be smaller, nimbler and more environmentally friendly with the introduction of new regulations from 2026.
Cars will be 30kg lighter, 10cm narrower and have engines with a near 50-50 split between electric and internal combustion power and use fully sustainable fuels. Whilst the cars are still heavy from a historical perspective it’s seen as a step in the right direction towards improving the racing whilst in terms of sustainability, particularly on the power-unit side, it’s a bold step.
The FIA described the concept at the heart of the 2026 rules as a "nimble car". Active aerodynamics will be used to optimise the use of the new engines. Cars will have front and rear wings that open on the straights to reduce drag and increase speed, but then close to increase downforce for cornering performance.
Overtaking will be facilitated by a power-boost system for a car following another, seen in other series such as IndyCar and Formula E where there is an element of strategy as to when the boost allowance is used. This is instead of the current DRS (drag-reduction system) overtaking aid.
The new hybrid engines, which triple the amount of electrical power used, have attracted two new manufacturers into F1 in the shape of Audi and Ford, and persuaded Honda to reverse its decision to quit the sport. Along with Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault, and the new Red Bull Powertrains company with which Ford is joining forces, there will be a total of six engine manufacturers in F1 in 2026.
The rules are a part of F1's pledge to go net-zero carbon by 2030.
Some drivers have expressed the concern that there will be such a major change in rules would make the field less competitive again just as it was beginning to close up this season. McLaren and to a lesser extent Ferrari and Mercedes are now challenging Red Bull to an extent not seen for over two years.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results as at 1st January 2024 = points bet 41601 profit +2048 ROI +4.92%
Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown.
- Football, Euro 24 Quarter Finals.
- Cricket, The first Test Match between England and the West Inides next week at Lords.
- Rugby Union, Summer Internationals include New Zealand v England and South Africa v Ireland
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix
- Golf, the Scottish Open and the ISCO Championship.
- Tennis, Wimbledon continues
Free Tip
New Zealand v England 1st Rugby Test, Dunedin Saturday 7.05am
The start of the Summer series for England, two Tests in New Zealand beginning on Saturday in Dunedin and then Auckland thereafter
England warmed up for the series in Japan, scoring 8 tries in hot conditions against inexperienced opponents winning 52-17. In the game England conceded 16 penalties and played 29 minutes with 14 players, either of which would be a recipe for disaster against the All Blacks. Presumably its out of their system!
The All Blacks have to yet to play under new head coach, Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson from the all-conquering Crusaders Super Rugby franchise with seven consecutive Super Rugby titles and, this being year one of a four year World Cup cycle, New Zealand are in transition.
Their squad is shorn of departures to Japan and France, the New Zealand domestic game can’t match the financial rewards offered there so these days the All Black are without two of the greatest locks in the history of the game in Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick as well as previous first choice half backs Richie Mo’unga and. Aaron smith. Top World Cup try scorer Will Jordan is also out with long term injury.
The last time the All Blacks hosted a home series against a northern hemisphere team, they succumbed 2-1 to Ireland two years ago despite winning the first Test. England aren’t the quality of that Irish side but the All Blacks haven’t had much time to prepare this time and haven’t played together since the World Cup last autumn.
That said New Zealand still have a strong side. A backline of TJ Perenera, McKenzie, Telea, Ioane, Jordie Barrett and Reece with Beauden Barrett on the bench is potent, behind a solid pack. It is a rather conservative and safety-first team and seems like the sort of side Steve Borthwick's team could get close to though. New Zealand will probably still win, but England should be competitive.
England now without Farrell, Lawes and Care finished third in the recent Six Nations, starting slowly but producing two very encouraging performances in beating Ireland at home in the penultimate game then scoring 31 points and losing by only two points in Paris in the final game.
During the Championship they introduced a new rush defence, not without its teething problems and in the latter half of the Championship the new attacking coach had clearly had an impact.
New Zealand are 1/6 outright, England 9/2 underdogs. The handicap is the interesting market, England are +12, which I find appealing
12 Points England +12 at Evens Bet365, 10/11 widely available.
Derby Days
Each year after the latest renewal of the Epsom Derby comes a post-mortem about how the Classic is not quite how it used to be in terms of a spectacle. This year was no different.
A few weeks ago a crowd of “around 27,000” people attended Epsom on Saturday according to the Jockey Club, an increase on last year’s attendance of 25,413. However, it was down on the 2022 spectator levels of 37,274 (when the Derby was part of Queen Elizabeth II’s official Platinum Jubilee celebrations) and below the pre-Covid attendances of 38,044 in 2019 and 35,258 in 2018. A total of 1.3m watched City Of Troy win on ITV Racing, an audience share of 13.8%. The viewing figure was down from 1.5m last year, when the race was simulcast on two channels, and from the 1.6m who watched in 2022.
It was the first ‘normal’ Derby in five years where there has not been a big change in numbers up or down as a result of other factors. Over and above that there are some structural issues. The Derby can struggle for the limelight from the casual fan on a crowded sporting weekend, for example. Although the Classic has not been run on a Wednesday since 1994, there are some calls to revert to a midweek slot.
For those attending the new course manager, arrived from a non-racing background was overseeing his first Derby and Oaks this year and reported positive reaction to innovations such as local children singing the national anthem on both days, a new enclosure on the inside of the course and a revamped food offering.
Some elements of the partial revamp missed the mark. A live draw for the Derby was held in the town centre but was criticised for its delivery, including the use of ping-pong balls with numbers drawn on in black marker, and lack of engagement.
Part of the long-term problem lies in Epsom’s almost negligible footprint on the racing calendar outside the two big days of its Classic festival weekend. There have been suggestions of creating a week-long festival around the Derby rather than just having two days of racing. This doesn’t necessarily mean more racedays, although that is obviously a possibility to boost commercial growth, but just more activities going on such as family events and connecting with the nine training yards around the racecourse.
There is a need for further attempts to drive to establish a wider appreciation of the race, to do we tell the story of the race more effectively, remembering that so much media these days is consumed by people who don’t have the sound on. Other sports have made vast improvements in their graphics, their on-screen information, and British racing has a long way to go to catch up with that.
The next few years are about getting the basics right, making sure the people who come will want to come back again all leading to 2029, the 250th running of the Derby.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results as at 1st January 2024 = points bet 41601 profit +2048 ROI +4.92%
Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor.
- Football, Euro 24 continues.
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup final in Barbados.
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Golf, the John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the BMW Invitational on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, Wimbledon begins.
Free Tips
2024 General Election: Constituency Markets Part Two (with help from Neil Channing)
Following on from last week we’ve had a betting scandal (within which, more news to come probably) continuing what has been a terrible campaign for the Conservatives.
Reports are that moments like “D-Day” and “Gamblegate” are making a difference primarily because they mean it’s less likely undecided voters will go back to the Tories, making it more likely that the catastrophe scenario of less than 100 and possibly less than 50 seats might become a reality.
A change or error of a mere percentage point or two at the national level, or alterations in voter efficiency or turnout, could produce very different results next week particularly for Conservative seat numbers. We are facing an extent of change which is difficult to model.
Against that background here’s another selection of 2024 General Election constituency markets for betting value:
Bridlington and the Wolds
These days this is my constituency, where the Conservatives have a 22,000 majority. Big in footprint, with four towns in the constituency accounting for less than half of the electorate and big swathes of rural voters.
First things first Reform/right wing minor party didn’t stand last time and there’s definitely a market for them in this area. It’s potentially though 10,000+ votes missing from the Conservative majority this time and as in many seats this opens the door to a potential change in the winning party which in this case would be Labour, second last time.
At the time of writing prices are Conservative 4/6 and Labour 11/8. Electoral calculus had Labour winning. As you will see in a minute, this was a bit of a shock to the local Labour party. The latest EC had Reform winning!
I expected the Labour campaign to be all guns blazing when early campaign I turned up at a local constituency campaign meeting to see what was what to find that the NEC had parachuted in a non-local candidate, where the person is committed to campaigning two times a week in neighbouring Scarborough and Whitby, a higher profile winnable “battleground” seat and the local activists are asked to go there weekly too. In that constituency Labour are 1/7 to overturn a 10,000 majority which should be a done deal but despite this through the campaign if anything the Labour strategy has been to pour more resources into the battleground seat.
At the start of the campaign one local activist said to me “We hope to get closer to be in a position to persuade the party to put resources into us next time”.
Now nearly a month later after the national campaign we’ve seen, it might be close, and could even be a three-way marginal. I was given the Labour party canvassing returns last week, where they’ve got round the major town and covered about 5% of the voters in the constituency to find the Labour vote at 40.6%. This figure flatters Labour, being canvassed in urban areas but still, Conservative 4/6 Labour 11/8 looks a bit unbalanced to me.
One of the themes of this election night and being picked up in many of the recent MRPs is extreme Tory weakness in rural seats that gives a chance of turning seats like this Red for the first time in generations.
15 points Labour to win Bridlington and the Wolds 11/8 Bet365
Huntingdon
John Major’s old constituency where currently Labour are 4/5 favourites (Conservatives 10/11) to win what would appear to be a very close battle this time.
Conservative majorities were 19,000 in 2019 and 14,000 in 2017 and there incumbent MP has stood-down meaning a new Conservative candidate this time. Back in the 1990s Major had a huge 36,000 majority here, the biggest in the country but boundary changes in 1997 were the first step in reducing the mega-majorities with very Conservative areas transferring to North West Cambridgeshire.
This time round we have Reform in the constituency, where they were absent last time and it is their presence this time that helps turn this into an ultra-marginal. Electoral Calculus have Labour winning by 3%, You Gov’s MRP has it as a toss-up.
With the bookmakers readily suggesting that Labour are comfortable favourites elsewhere with Conservative majorities of 22,000+ this constituency stands out with a lower Conservative majority going in and a backable Labour price.
20 points Labour to gain Huntingdon at 4/5 Bet365 and Paddy Power (1.8 on the Betfair Exchange)
Waveney Valley
A seat that straddles the borders of Norfolk and Suffolk, new to this Parliament borne from East Suffolk and Bury St Edmunds, in which co-leader of the Greens Adrian Ramsay runs. This is a very interesting one as a recent small poll (500 voters), albeit commissioned by the Greens themselves showed that they were in the lead here (and in North Herefordshire) by 37% to Conservative 24%. Wednesday’s Electoral Calculus had Conservative 29.5% Green 29%.
With market prices of Conservative 4/5 Green 15/8 (3/1 a week ago, 10/1 a month ago) I thought it was worth a deep dive.
The context for the Greens in this election is that they are positioned to the left of a centrist Labour party a home not just for environmental votes but left-wing protest voters. The Greens are very odds-on to hold Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol Central and second favourites to win North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley, Sheffield Central and Leeds Central and third favourite in another 16 seats.
In Waveney Valley Mid-Suffolk council has a very strong Green majority (20 out of 24 seats) giving them the knowledge and date to run a local parliamentary campaign.
Consensus would have Green voters concentrated in left wing urban seats but rural Green support is a factor too, which it needs to be for the Greens here. Often it's dismissed as NIMBYism/using council elections to vent (which some of it will be) but it's often genuine. This election might provide an unusual example of what happens when normally uncompetitive areas for minor parties become competitive, and a Green vote really matters in what outwardly looks a very safe Conservative seat.
10 points Greens to win Waveney Valley at 15/8 Bet365
Finally a look at a potential Reform constituency. Farage is 1/10 to win Clacton and the latest MRPs have Reform winning anything from just that seat to 5 seats next week, against a background of Reform rising up the national polls towards 20% since Farage’s announcement of standing and taking over as leader earlier in the campaign, in some cases overtaking the Conservatives into second place.
Reform are well placed in two ways in this campaign. The natural home of the right of centre protest voter unhappy with politicians in general and those Brexit supporters who would contend that they’ve been let down by the implementation of Brexit. Whilst there is undoubtedly a ceiling on Reform support, and Farage has come under extra scrutiny for his views on Putin/Ukraine etc, his core support aren’t going to be fazed by that. The issues of protest and “a real Brexit” will Trump (sic) that.
Watching discourse over Clacton during the campaign it became clear that were Labour and the Conservatives to co-operate then the combined vote share could deny Farage a seat. Presumably a worthy goal for the next Parliament for both parties. When asked about that, the head of the Labour constituency association in Clacton said “over my dead body”. So that’s that. We get Mr Farage in Westminster attempting his Trump-lite reverse takeover of the opposition party then.
Ashfield
Before the “Get Brexit done” election of 2019 and the big Conservative wins in leave-voting Red Wall seats Labour won this seat in each of 2017, 2015 and 2010 as an ultra-marginal. The constituency mixes a strong leave bias with historic old mining towns.
This time round Bet365 have Labour and Reform 10/11 each of two. You Gov’s MRP has the seat as a toss-up. Electoral Calculus has Reform 2% ahead, with the complicating factor that there is a very strong Independent Candidate (local council leader, ex Lib Dem who won 28% in 2019) who they have winning 25% of the vote.
It is this split in the left-leaning vote which wasn’t a factor in the 2010-2017 elections which I think may see Lee Anderson home.
15 points Reform to win Ashfield at 10/11 Bet365
Going down
For the second time in league history, the three promoted sides into the Premier League were relegated last season. For those who fear the gulf between Premier Leagueand Championship is becoming impossible to bridge, that is a worrying sign.
Also, but for Nottingham Forest’s four point deduction for breaches of the league’s Profit and Sustainability rules, it wouldn’t even have been close. The other interest at the bottom came from Everton, before a closing run of 13 points from five games, but they wouldn’t have been in the mix either had it not been for their own 10 point deduction, subsequently reduced to six.
Sheffield United’s tally of 16 points was the third worst in Premier League history, level with Huddersfield in 2018-19 but with a goal difference that was 12 worse. The 104 goals they conceded was the worst ever in a Premier League season. But what makes this season stand out is that the 24 points Burnley achieved were the joint 10th-lowest in Premier League history and Luton’s 26 points the joint 16th-worst; the average of the three was 22 points; the previous lowest average for the three promoted sides was 27.3 points in 2008 (Sunderland, Birmingham, Derby). On only one other occasion has the average been under 32, in 2021-22 when Brentford, Watford and Norwich managed 30.3.
That two of the worst three performances ever have come in the past three years is a cause for concern, but each of the three sides who came up last season had their own problems. Luton, with a tiny budget and a small ground were always likely to struggle but performed creditably. They may have ended up with just a point from the three games, but they led at home against each of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Sheffield United lost three of their best players from their promotion campaign on the eve of this season, with Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge sold and Tommy Doyle’s loan from Manchester City coming to an end.
In terms of the Championship’s capacity to compete, Burnley are the big worry given how impressive they had been in winning the Championship, far more was expected of them. They ended up being undone by the number of mistakes they made at the back, particularly when trying to play out.
Only once before, in 1997-98, have all three promoted sides gone down and it’s worth bearing in mind that last season all three promoted sides (Fulham, Bournemouth and Forest) stayed up. That said, there have been 12 occasions when two or more of the promoted sides have gone down immediately, and three of those have come in the last four seasons, six in the last 10. The days when a Blackburn, a Newcastle or a Forest could come up and finish in the top four, as happened in the first three seasons of the Premier League, are long gone; Wolves in 2018-19 are the only promoted side to finish in the top eight in the past 17 seasons.
In the season ahead at least one of the newly promoted clubs will be up against it as Leicester City have PSR problems and an impending points deduction as well as a new manager appointment to get right.L
Ipswich and Southampton have, in Kieran McKenna and Russell Martin, progressive young managers and plenty of young talent but its going to be an uphill battle for both. What may help all three teams is the possibility/probability of other FFP points deductions elsewhere in the league, and a few clubs will be scrambling in the early part of this summer to sell players to comply with the PSR rules.
As it is the artificial construct of PSR is going to be an ongoing issue. Leicester City for example may lack top quality commercial management for sure, but with a billionaire owner committed for over a decade to the City and the club, are not at any financial risk. Yet their playing upside this time round in the top flight is capped by their commercial potential and ground size.
Nottingham Forest too, whose spending motivation was assembling a squad that could survive in the Premier League, are an interesting case study. They did not spend in 2022-23 in a particularly coherent manner but the intentions were good: Staying up, moving forward, competing, everything a club’s supporters want from a newly promoted club. It was only the weakness of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United that allowed that strategy to succeed this time, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be as lucky this season.
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