Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, European Championship Qualifying included Kosovo v England on Sunday
- Racing, over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby and all weather racing at Lingfield and Southwell
- NFL Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix in Sao Paulo
- Rugby Union, the start of the European Champions Rugby Cup
- Golf, On the European Tour the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa and on the USPGA the Mayakoba Golf Classic event in Mexico.
- Tennis, the ATP Finals at the O2 in London
- Cricket, The first test between New Zealand and England in Tauranga next week
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
The 2019-20 European Ruby Champions Cup
The 2019-20 Heineken Cup begins this weekend. Twenty teams drawn into five pools from which the five winners and the three best runners up progress to the seeded knockout stages with an eventual final in Marseille next May
The five pools are as follows:
Benetton, Leinster, Lyon and Northampton
Exeter, Glasgow, La Rochelle and Sale
Bath, Quins, Clermont and Ulster
Munster, Ospreys, Racing and Saracens (There is always a “group of death”!)
Toulouse, Connacht, Gloucester and Montpellier
Ante-post odds are as follows
Leinster 2/1
Saracens 3/1
Clermont 7/1
Toulouse 8/1
Exeter 10/1
20-1 bar headed by Racing92 and Munster
Each-way odds of 1/3 two places are available.
With Saracens salary cap breach in the news recently, let’s start by saying that will have no effect in this competition. Their squad depth is the key reason why they are perennial contenders and winners in this competition and their (probably not permissible under domestic regulations) resources allows them to compete with the best French sides in a way the other English sides cannot consistently. Leinster contain the core of the Irish national side and plenty of young talent coming through.
My aim here is to find an each-way alternative to the two favourites and in this respect looking at the French Top 14 sides is the place to go as their financial resources exceed those of any of the other sides. That said, aside from the “galacticos” of the Toulon side of 2013-2015 only one other Top 14 side has won the European Cup in over two decades. That side is Toulouse, four-time winners the last time in 2010 following which they entered a period in the doldrums
Toulouse were in Leinster’s pool last year and qualified as one of the three best runners up with a 5-1 record and as seventh seeds. They proceeded to win a thrilling quarter-final away at my tip Racing92 before losing to Leinster to Dublin in the semi-finals. Toulouse were Top 14 Champions last year.
In terms of the squad the back line is star studded and can feature a back three of Medard, Cheslin Kolbe and Huget with several of the younger generation of French international players in the squad too notably Ramos ,Dupont and Ntamack.
The better French club sides, infused with Southern Hemisphere talent, tend not to be as dysfunctional (and poorly coached) as the national side. Toulouse’s pool contains a tough trip to Gloucester but isn’t the toughest with Connacht the weakest of the four Irish provinces and Montpellier a mid-table Top 14 side.
Toulouse should give is a good run through the winter and onto next spring.
8 points each way Toulouse to win the European Champions Rugby Cup at 9-1 with Coral and 8-1 with Betfred (1/3 1,2)
Defense
In the NFL the New England Patriots defense has been performing so well that it is set to break records. In the first 8 weeks of the season, with the team remaining unbeaten, New England had allowed just 61 total points. Drawn out over the entire season, that rate would beat the 2000 Ravens who conceded 165 points. Through only six games that year, the Ravens had allowed 65. In Week 9 the Patriots had their first setback, against the type of offense with a running quarterback that they have often struggled against, losing 37-20 to the Ravens and it has to be said that the Patriots schedule has been very kind.
The Patriots have beaten the likes of Miami, the Jets, Washington and the Giants, who at that point were ravaged by offensive injuries Until they played the Of their teams played in the first eight weeks, only one has a winning record and the teams comprised of 5 of the worst 8 and 6 of the worst 11 offenses in the NFL rankings.
One sign of a good defense is what it does to opponents on third down. Until they met Lamar Jackson and the Ravens The Patriots this season had allowed teams to convert on third downs 10 times out of 73 opportunities. The fewest converted third downs allowed in a 16-game season since the league began tracking is 49 by the 1991 Saints.
Obviously the defense is well coached, by Belichik primarily one of the best defensive coaches in history, but what is rare is that players in the unit who would be (in NFL terms) household names elsewhere eschew the spotlight for the team ethic
The Patriots will need this defense to be exceptional because they're still having issues with the offensive line but the defense is so good that it makes it hard for teams to complete passes (Jackson only threw for 163 yards in their first loss) and create a lot of turnovers.
Brady is now in his nineteenth year and said recently that they are “playing as well as any defense I've ever played with." New England have six Superbowl wins and nine Superbowl appearances under Belichik and Brady, a feat unlikely to be repeated in the salary cap era where the draft and free agency combines to drive competitive balance.
New England are currently 3/1 favourites to win it all again this season. Unlike in other seasons, this time it will be the defense that takes them there.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For November the Stattobets service will be free to everyone. Brodders will continue as usual.
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City on Sunday afternoon
- Racing, Flat racing at Doncaster and Southwell over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton
- NFL Week 10 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, On the European Tour the Turkish Airlines Open and on the USPGA the Tour Championship Charles Schwab event in Japan.
- Cricket, The final match in the England-New T20 series in Auckland on Sunday
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Gloucester v Saracens Saturday 3pm
It’s the fourth weekend of the 2019-20 Gallagher Premiership season in English domestic rugby. Both these teams have won 2 and lost one of their first three games. Saracens lost 27-25 at a much improved Northampton team on the opening weekend before beating Leicester and London Irish. Gloucester won their first two games at Sale and then at home to Wasps before losing narrowly at Leicester last weekend.
Saracens, defending title holders and European Champions, have been missing nine players on world cup duty including Farrell, Daly, Itoje and the Vunipola’s and its probably a week or two early for their return to domestic action. However within the confines of a salary cap their squad depth is hugely strong. Of course that squad depth has been controversial within the game for some time, and this week came news that Saracens will be docked 35 points and fined over £5m following an inquiry into their salary cap management between 2016-19 which revealed “off the salary cap books” investment partnerships between the owner and star players.
I watched Saracens live a fortnight ago and all the systems and processes that make them such a hard team to beat, of a great kicking game and rock solid defence were in place. They are brilliantly coached. Ben Earl, the recent England U20s flanker and captain gives them a real x-factor and will be in national team contention soon enough.
Gloucester have put considerable resource on and off the pitch into transforming their fortunes. For seven seasons on the trot they finishes 5th-9th in the Premiership before climbing to finish 3rd last year.
Gloucester have a considerable home advantage at Kingsholm in front of a passionate crowd in a tight stadium. Under their South African coach Ackerman there is a big South African presence including six forwards and in the new recruit scrum half John Simpson from wasps they have someone who can help unlock the mercurial talents of Danny Cipriani and the winger Ollie Thorley.
It’s understandable enough that Gloucester at home are favourites here but the value play is Saracens, available at 12/5 outright and +7 on the handicap. Missing 9 World Cup absentees or not you won’t find Saracens priced like that for too many if any other matches this season.
10 points Saracens to win at Gloucester 12/5 William Hill, 9/4Betfred and BetVictor
Overcoming transition
Transition is becoming a theme within the bigger clubs of the Premier League. Manchester United have been in permanent transition since Sir Alex’s retirement, Arsenal are adjusting under Emery, Tottenham are struggling now under Pochettino and Chelsea are beginning to perform well under Lampard, with the introduction of young domestic players a strategic change.
At a time where this is taking place a beneficiary might be Leicester City. They lost their chairman a year ago in tragic circumstances, sold two footballers of the year in successive seasons, sold Harry Maguire this off-season and (despite a few false dawns along the way since the 2015-2016 title win) and have bounced back to the top four a third of the way through the season.
They hit the jackpot with Brendan Rodgers whose man management skills have a reputedly tough dressing room all rowing in the same direction. When he joined he said “this is a great project, the ambition of the owners despite difficult moments, but a really really good core of players”
Player recruitment has been mostly successful apart from a poor summer immediately after the title win. Vardy’s fee, nearly 100 Premier League goals later, looks a steal and so do those for Maddison, Ndidi and Pereira. Tielemans was persuaded to join Leicester over Manchester United and Maguire was bought for £17m and sold for £80m (the whole fee payable up front, no less) two years later safe in the knowledge that Soyuncu was a ready-made replacement having been bought a year previously. Although the January transfer window is a difficult place to find value, there is a lot of money available in two months time to cement those Champions League prospects.
It is certainly possible to argue that this team is a better team than the title winning one. What has certainly happened is that the style of play has changed substantially.
Counter-attacking and defending deep has become possession based football. The title winning side played 4-4-2 whilst this season’s team plays 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 or 4-1-2-3 very flexibly. Within the system both full backs bomb on allowing Maddison and Perez to play inside and the pair together with Tielemans are a ready supply line for Vardy who no longer relies on playing on the last defender and using pace and balls over the top.
The 2015-16 side averaged 42% possession across the season, the second lowest in the league and this team is at 59%, third highest, having played the fourth highest number of short passes in the league.
For now, it’s an exciting ride. Helped all the more by at least three members of the traditional top six being in transition, mirroring the comparatively poor seasons members of the top six had in the title winning year. Lightning is unlikely to strike twice given the superiority of the now “big two” Liverpool and Manchester City, but daring to dream about European trips next season is definitely on the agenda.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Everton v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Final
- Racing, Flat racing at Newmarket and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby
- NFL Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season
- Formula One, the United States Grand Prix in Austin
- Golf, The WGC-HSBC Champions Tournament in China.
- Tennis, The ATP Paris Masters
- Cricket, England’s tour of New Zealand starts with a T20 series including at Wellington on Sunday
Free tip
Reading v Millwall, Championship Saturday 3pm
Two teams in bottom half of the Championship meet on Saturday, and both have new managers, Mark Bowen at Reading and Gary Rowett at Millwall.
Jose Gomes was replaced at Reading after finishing 20th in the division last season and with two wins at the time so far this season. Overall Reading only won 23%of their games under Gomes. In Bowen’s two games they have beaten Preston 1-0 and drawn at QPR 2-2. Generally scoring goals has been a problem for Reading since the season they finished 3rd under Jaap Stam. Reading have 14 goals in 13 league games this season and scored 46 and 49 goals in the last two seasons in a 46 game season.
Millwall climbed to 15th last weekend with a home win v Stoke last weekend in the first game for new manager Gary Rowett, who took over following 4 year tenure of Neil Harris. Millwall have won 4 and drawn 6 of 14 league games though away form has been poor. They haven’t won away for 12 league games going back to last season, and have scored six away goals in seven away games this season.
Nevertheless my instinct here is to want to oppose Reading with only 14 goals in 13 games and two wins in six home games, the best available price of 11/10 feels very short indeed. Millwall 13/5 is the best price, with the draw at 12/5.
In what is likely to be a low scoring game I was struck when randomly watching the highlights of the Stoke win last weekend at the form of the talented winger Jed Wallace for Millwall who shredded the statuesque Stoke back four and presumably will be a major threat on the counter here. Wallace has five goals this season, four of them penalties.
10 points Millwall to win at Reading 13/5 Bet365, 3.54 Matchbook 5/2 William Hill
Turning Japanese
Next year Japan will become the first country in the world that has staged a rugby World Cup, the Olympics and the football World Cup this century.
With regard to Rugby for a long time World Rugby as an organisation was a closed shop. The tier one nations rarely play sides in Tier 2 outside World Cups, the best players are poached under more lax nationality rules and the funding disparities make securing more depth and a truly competitive global game difficult to achieve. Really the only change in the competition landscape was Argentina’s introduction to the Rugby Championship in 2012. This status quo allows the top nations to make a lot of money but doesn't help promote the game to develop elsewhere.
Japan’s thrilling host performance in the World Cup just endng might be a turning point. Japan should be in demand to join a major yearly competition and of course both the Rugby Championship and the Six Nations will those mooted the most.
In terms of logistical issues, Japan is a long way from Europe and Australiasia/Argentina however both Japan and other sides could play blocks of away matches to cut down on travel. Japan in either competition would produce financial and commercial benefits for both the organisers and the competitor teams.Just under 30 million people in Japan watched the match against South Africa with an audience share of almost 50%, so the appetite for the game has clearly been stimulated.
World Rugby is constantly debating between expanding into new areas and consolidating strong countries, which is what France 2023 is all about. Talk of a World Cup in the USA in 2027 indicates that thinking is moving towards the latter approach again to expand the game.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Semi Finals
- Racing, Flat racing at Doncaster, Newbury and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso
- NFL Week 8 of the 2019 NFL season
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Golf, The Portugal Masters on the European Tour and on the US Tour the Zozo Championship in Japan.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Vienna and Basel
Free tip
Tranmere v Doncaster League One Saturday 3pm
Last season’s League Two play-off winners Tranmere are 20th in League one in their first season back at this level with a record of 3 wins 4 draws and 7 defeats having conceded 27 goals. Specifically at home they have 2 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches.One of those wins was an early season 5-0 result against Bolton’s youth team.
Doncaster made the League One play-offs last season and this season are under new manager Darren Moore formerly of West Brom. They sit sixth in the league with six wins and four draws from their thirteen matches. They have only conceded 14 goals in 13 games.
Doncaster are renowned as a footballing side, moving the ball quickly and effective counter-attackers. Until Tuesday night Doncaster had only scored 15 goals in the league so far this season though, both top goalscorers ( Sadler and Coppinger with 4 and 3) are midfielders. The main strikeforce from last season John Marquis (21 goals) and loanee Mallik Wilks (16 goals and 12 assists) left. Moore only arrived three weeks before the start of the season with limited time for goal-scorer recruitment in the back end of the transfer window.
On Tuesday Doncaster proceeded to beat Southend 7-1 away from home playing against10 men for 84 minutes and 9 men for 40 minutes. The same evening Tranmere lost 5-0 at Sunderland. Researching this match before those games after those results it gives this recommendation a feel of some recency bias. Nevertheless odds against here for the stronger side are worth a look
10 points Doncaster Rovers to beat Tranmere Rovers 5/4 Betfred and Coral/Ladbrokes
Deadline Day
In the NFL Over the first seven years of the current Collective Bargaining agreement with the league and the players, just eight players, and six non-quarterbacks, were traded for first-round picks.
Since 2018 there has been a major change in the magnitude of player for draft pick trades. Eight have taken place in the last 16 months. The first major change is that star players are increasingly available for trades whereas previously they weren’t, a second is that struggling teams are willing to aggressively pursue rebuilds (Raiders, Dolphins, for example)
The eight blockbuster trades since 2018 are
Patriots trade Brandin Cooks to Rams for 2018 first-round pick.
Raiders trade Khalil Mack to the Bears for a package including 2019 first-round pick and 2020 first-round picks.
Raiders trade Amari Cooper to the Cowboys for a 2019 first-round pick.
Giants trade Odell Beckham and Olivier Vernon to the Browns for a 2019 first-round pick, more picks and players.
Seahawks trade Frank Clark to the Chiefs for a 2019 first-round pick and other picks
Dolphins trade Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills to the Texans for 2020 and 2021 first-round picks other picks and players.
Dolphins trade Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers for a 2020 first-round pick and other picks.
Two weeks ago Jaguars trade Jaen Ramsey to the Rams for two first round picks plus.
NFL General managers had previously valued high draft picks like they would a star player. That has been questioned in recent years with a mixed hit rate on draft picks at the back end of the first round, so the line of thinking for teams in contention is that if they can acquire a player that will help them get into the playoffs‚ and your pick is likely to be 21-32 you can justify dealing trading your future high draft pick for a known commodity.
Player behaviour has also changed mirroring the experience of the NBA where players more routinely force their way out of teams, with players often expressing dissatisfaction on social media and causing teams distractions. For start players, this is beginning to work in the NFL
NFL coach job security has always been low. Now, General managers are under more pressure for short term results too, the likelihood of getting years to conduct slow rebuilds is low. Draft picks can take time to pan out, time that team managements generally don’t now have. General Managers are often analytics led, younger and more aggressive.
The NFL Trade deadline is early next week. Look out for more big moves
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Quarter Finals
- Racing, Flat racing at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford
- NFL Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Open de France on the European Tour and on the US Tour the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges.
- Tennis, The ATP Kremlin Cup in Moscow and the Antwerp and Stockholm Opens
Free tip
Northampton Town v Salford City League Two Saturday 3pm
Salford City go into the game 14th, in a so far inconsistent first season in the Football League. Until they beat Cambridge at home 1-0 last weekend, which followed a win at Walsall the week before they hadn’t won back to back league games.
Overall they have won four and drawn five of 13 games and have conceded 20 goals, only bottom of the table Morecambe have seen more attempts at goal against them. 8 of the 20 goals conceded against them were in successive defeats 4-0 and 4-1 by Crewe and Forest Green respectively, the sides currently at the top of the division alongside Exeter.
10 of Salford’s 16 league goals have been scored away from home
Northampton under Keith Curle are 18th, having only won 4 of 13 games scoring only 14 goals in the process. They have no wins in their last four games.
Looking at prices for the match Northampton 6/5 looks very short. Salford at 5/2+ an interesting price
10 points Salford City to beat Northampton Town 13/5 Bet365 5/2 SportingBet and BetfairSportsbook
Drafty
When the NFL adopted free agency in 1994 owners were afraid of losing star players. To mitigate this risk and ensure teams retained some control over players, the league simultaneously instituted the franchise tag as well as compensatory picks. Using a formula based on salary, playing time, and post-season team honours, 32 picks in the upcoming draft, between the third and seventh rounds (and a maximum of four per team), are distributed as compensation to teams that lost more good free agents than they signed the previous offseason.
Changes in the last 10 years have further exacerbated the players’ concerns, notably in 2011 The new rookie wage scale is adopted and in 2017 the NFL begun to allow teams to trade comp picks.
The system of compensatory picks serves to squeeze the market for top free agents and make marginal players on the fringe of rosters even more disposable.
The NFL’s hard financial cap for player rosters means that the decision to re-sign a free agent doesn’t equal picking between having that player and having nothing. It means the decision between having that player and having the cap space to use on another player.
Not every free agent qualifies for the compensatory pick formula. players that qualify are good enough that they will get picked up by other teams. However, the compensatory picks doled out represent 32 opportunities that are being extended to players not already in the league.
The player who is getting squeezed is the second-tier veteran player. The teams know how cheap the draft picks are, since the advent of the rookie wage scale more than half of seventh-round draft picks have lasted on the roster through a second season.
The rookie wage scale allows teams to bring in quality players they can dramatically under-pay and compensatory picks increase the numbers of players drafted. The environment for second tier free agents is therefore harsh. Less leverage and NFL careers are shortening as a reulst as rosters get younger, outside the star players.
With the NFL trade deadline looming it is worth watching for players released by rebuilding teams. If they are picked up elsewhere one of the benefits to the team releasing them will be the possibility of extra compensatory picks next year.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
