Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Manchester United.
- Racing, On the flat at Doncaster and Chelmsford. Over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton
- NFL, Week Ten of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue including England v New Zealand, Wales v Australia and France v South Africa
- Cricket, the first Test between Sri Lanka and England concludes in Galle
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Golf, the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa and on the USPGA the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico.
- Tennis, the ATP finals begin in London
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here https://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/230
Free tip
Rugby Union Wales v Australia Saturday 5.20pm
Wales claimed the inaugural Doddie Weir Cup with a 21-10 win as Scotland's miserable run in Cardiff continued.
It was an ideal warm-up for Wales before their attempt to defeat Australia next Saturday after 13 successive losses against the Wallabies. The two sides are in the same pool in the 2019 Rugby World Cup
Wales were a bit rusty at times. For long periods of the game they were comfortable without the ball and defended well then cored some nice tries and will be better for that.
Essentially Wales have several world class players that keep them competitive in most matches even when they might look over-matched on paper. Leigh Halfpenny is one of the best goal kickers and keeps the scoreboard ticking over, and Davies and North in the three quarters are excellent. Wales’ problem going back several years is the execution has been lacking and results have been mixed but a year out from the World Cup this is a mature team that should be capable of going deep in the tournament
In the short term they are missing key players in the back row but this is still a side that can field Moriarty, Tipuric and Lydiate in their place.
In the last two years Australia have won in Cardiff 32-8 then in 2017 29-21. This time round Wales really should win. In previous years they have met Australia as the first game of the Autumn season with Australia fresh off the rugby championship and Wales a bit cold. Now Wales have had a tune up. Since last year’s match Australia have been in some turmoil and coach Michael Cheika has come under pressure. Australia have won 3 of 10 internationals this year, losing 2-1 at home to Ireland in the summer then losing 4 of six in the Rugby Championship.
For all their talent in the back line and with two world class back rows in Pocock and Hooper their talent pool (especially in the front five) is slim in other areas and the side lacks an identity, The two key questions facing the Wallabies remain whether Cheika is selecting the right team and if they are playing the right style of game, and the answers so far have to be said to be no.
Here in what should be a close game Wales are 5/6 and -1 on the handicap with Bet365 and finally I see them winning here in what should clearly be a close game.
10 points Wales to win by 1-12 points 19/10 Skybet 2.78 Betfair (7/4 Betfair Sportsbook 13/8 PaddyPower6/4 Ladbrokes/Coral)
Missing out
England rugby players risk missing out on selection for the next British Lions tour after the RFU and Premiership rugby unveiled a new framework on Tuesday that will see the domestic season run from September through to late June, with the international window moving to July in what will be an 11-month season.
The 2021 tour has been cut to five weeks from six and eight matches from 10 –and last week it was revealed that pleas from the Lions to be given early access to Premiership players have fallen on deaf ears.
On the face of it, the new season structure, in place from 2019‑2022, varies little from the one Premiership Rugby announced 18 months ago, leading senior England players such as Billy Vunipola, Joe Launchbury and Ben Youngs to voice their concerns and there was talk of going on strike. This time round there are a number of enforced breaks and limits of player workload introduced.
They include the maximum game limit of 32 instances of 80 minutes being reduced to 30 while a new measurement of “match involvements” playing 20 minutes or more has been introduced with a top limit of 35. Significantly, clubs will now face sanctions for any breaches, having escaped punishment in the past
Lions tours have been pushed to the margins to the extent players will not return home until August, but unlike the 2017-18 season they will not be available to start the following campaign with their clubs. They will face a mandatory 10-week rest period as well as an enforced week off during the 2021 autumn internationals.
With the Premiership final scheduled for 26 June 2021, English players will not be available until the following day, with the Lions expected to fly to South Africa on Monday 28 June. While the tour schedule is yet to be determined, it’s widely expected that their first tour match will take place on Saturday 3 July, with the first Test on 17 July and the final Test on 31 July as the schedule will be cut from 10 matches to eight.
The lack of preparation could therefore have a serious effect on how the Lions squad is selected, given that the Pro14 said last August that they are more than willing to change their season once every four years to create extra time for a six-week Lions tour and additional training week. With Irish, Scottish and Welsh internationals potentially available for up to two weeks more than their English counterparts, whoever is named head coach for the tour could easily decide that a Celtic-dominated squad would stand a better chance of success due to the additional preparation time. The reality is why would any Lions coach want a squad that is England heavy now?
Gatland has often stated that by cutting the length and number of matches on a Lions tour, he feared the entire prospect of the touring side could die. Legendary Lions coach Sir Ian McGeechan said after the announcement “The Lions will not survive if we shorten tours, it shows the powers that be are ignorant of what it takes to win”
In the various negotiations the Lions have clearly made a sacrifice, the RFU have committed to ditching one summer tour match each year after a Rugby World Cup and international players will forgo their England match in order to get the rest they need during the season and the club/country tension does not currently allow them, Premiership Rugby appear to have given up very little.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool.
- Racing, On the flat at Newmarket and Newcastle over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby
- NFL, Week Nine of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the start of the Autumn Internationals including England v South Africa
- Golf, the Turkish Airlines Open and on the USPGA the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin.
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Masters in Paris
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip
Autumn Internationals England v South Africa Saturday 3pm
With a year to go until the 2019 World Cup these Autumn Internationals have significance beyond those of a normal year. There are only two groups of fixtures left: the autumn internationals and the Six Nations. After that we are into the World Cup warm-up games, where it should be a case of honing not continued experimentation.
Unfortunately for England they are heavily injury hit, partly an unfortunate combination of circumstances and partly a result of the relentlessly punishing domestic programme and the lack of agreement between the clubs and RFU to rest players (as the Irish national side has).
Injuries aside England go into this autumn campaign with a lot of question-marks anyway. They lost their last three games in the Six Nations in the spring then the first two tests of the South Africa tour in the summer before winning the dead rubber (inspired by Danny Cipriani who doesn’t even make this squad) in Cape Town. After winning their first 17 Tests under coach Eddie Jones, England have lost six out of their past seven games. The result is that a year out from th World Cup Jones is tinkering and experimenting, at a stage in the major tournament cycle where combinations should be settled. Such fluid plans are normally the preserve of the post world cup 18 months with new players introduced with time to bed in.
Even at full strength the questions about England’s style and particularly the personnel in the back row remain. As it is missing both Vunipola’s, Robshaw, Hughes, Launchbury, Lawes and others is a big loss particularly in experience in the forwards.
South Africa meanwhile are on the up a year out from Japan. They’ve just finished second in the Rugby Championship with a famous win in New Zealand, and then running the close at home, along the way.
Typically South African sides are rugged up front and that applies to this team but they have more flair out wide than recent iterations of the side under newish head coach Rassie Erasmus. Part of their improvement is that the talent pool he can choose from is greater than it was due to the relaxation of a selection policy that previously prevented players playing outside South Africa from being picked.
The differences in the two sides are shown in experience and size in the forward packs where England field 165 total caps against 293 and 10 against 100 specifically in the back row. The eight forward players average almost two stone a man lighter too.
Prices here are England 8/11 and South Africa 5/4 or 6/5 and England are -2 at 10/11 on the point spread. My reaction to South Africa being underdogs here was initially “Are you kidding me?”
A night’s sleep later I still I strongly liked South Africa at 6/4 with Bet365 and 2.46 on the exchanges. They are the better team currently, hardened by a competitive summer and their opponents have lots of question-marks. England's price shortened after the teams were announced, which had me perplexed. Even away from home I can’t have South Africa as underdogs on Saturday.
20 points South Africa to beat England 6/4 Bet365 2.46 Betfair and Matchbook
There are football club owners, and then there are football club owners
Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha owned Thailand’s biggest Duty Free stores, King Power. A self made man, he started with a store and his success saw him moved up the ranks of the country’s list of wealthiest people.
Vichai was always a fan of the Premier League. He was a huge fan of Chelsea football club until an incident in 2005. Prior to that, he was a regular with a VIP box at Stamford Bridge. Apart from his frequent appearances at the Bridge. He also supported CFC by spending on an advertising board.
However, in 2005, at a Champions League home game the security at the Bridge was more strict than usual. During security checks a scanner almost hit Vichai’s face in the process. He was unhappy and the situation almost turned nasty until his son had to take him away.
He was extremely disappointed in CFC and how they treated a sponsor and a regular VIP ticket buyer in such manner. Especially when the club did nothing about it. So much so that he submitted letters to the club, but he considered that no real action was taken.Vichai then decided he no longer wanted anything to do with Chelsea. No sponsorship, no tickets. He also told his son this,
“One day, we will buy a football team that will be able to beat Chelsea.”
Everyone thought it was a joke, Vichai didn’t.
In 2007, King Power approached Reading, who were in the Premier League that season. John Madejski was the owner then. He wasn’t interested in Vichai’s offer and said
“If you have no experience in the Football industry, it’s best if you stay out of it, you won’t be successful.”
Three years and many football clubs contacts later, Leicester City approached King Power if they could be their sponsor. So the Thais flew over to discuss this. Only then, something in Vichai’s gut told him that there was something special within this club.
He had his son study Leicester City and the City and analyse the potential. Incidentally, their family once watched Leicester play in 1997 in a league cup final at Wembley. They didn’t believe the sponsorship deal on its own would deliver much value, the club was poorly run and languishing. However Vichai liked LCFC and saw something in it that his advisors didn't.So the first question he asked the then owner, Milan Mandaric, in their meeting was
“Are you interested in selling your football club?”
“Yes” was the response. Mandaric bought LCFC for £25m and sold to Vichai for £37m.
They spent 3 years fixing the organisation of the club, with mistakes made along the way on the field in management and playing staff. LCFC reached the playoffs in 2013. The game where we painfully lost to Watford by a 90+7 min Troy Deeney goal after Knockaert's missed penalty.
The whole football club was in shock, the morale was at its lowest point. Vichai’s son was extremely upset until his father said to him.
“This is life. It’s good that it’s difficult. So we know what it’s like to fail.”
The club took that loss as a lesson.The next season saw Leicester win the Championship. No playoffs required. During their Championship celebration, Vichai told the team.
“Our plan is to be in the top 4 and reach CL in 3 years.”
Everyone laughed.
During the 15/16 season where LCFC won the league the final game of the season was an away game. Traditionally, other team does a Guard of Honour for the title winning side. Guess where the game was at? Stamford Bridge.
In addition to his success, he donated millions to various organisations in the city. The Leicester Royal Infirmary received enormous sums as did the local university for research facilities. Yes, with buying the freehold of the ground, repaying the debt and investment on the field and in managers he spent nearly £200m from day one but that and winning the title is not why you are seeing such an outpouring of grief.
He was loved by the fanbase and widely respected by the City for what he did for the club day to day. Fans would turn up for away trips to see that the owner had given each of them a £5 voucher to use at the away ground at the food kiosks. Home crowds would each be given a beer or a mince pie if it was December. Free scarves were handed out and at all games a word for all sorts of fans were commonplace
Many foreign owners buy teams for financial reasons. Some never get on with the fans. Vichai however, wasn’t one of those owners.The one thing i didn't know I was told after his loss. I had walked past the crash site on my way out of the ground ten minutes before it happened and then on into the City to meet up with a friend. Always on twitter, I was scrolling while i waited and saw the news and refreshed constantly.As various people came in one person, who it turns out was a steward at home games, told those around him of Vichai's regular habit
At each home game, around 2 and half hours before kick off, he would take a decanter of whisky and some glasses and place them in the centre-piece of the club's memorial garden at the back of the West stand for fans to make a toast to lost loved ones. Every single home game. I thought this might be apochryphal so i asked an acquaintance the following day, a local sports journalist. if that might be true? He assured me it was,
Quite the man really.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27-28 October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City on Monday night football.
- Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Kempton and Newbury and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso
- NFL, Week Eight of the 2018 Season
- Cricket, the Sri Lanka England T20 International in Colombo on Saturday
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the Bledisloe Cup between Australia and New Zealand
- Golf, the WGC-HSBC Champions in China and on the USPGA the Sanderson Farm Championship.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Basle and Vienna
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here https://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/230
Free tip
New Zealand v Australia Bledisloe Cup Rugby Saturday 27th October 06.45am BST
The match will be played in Yokohama, Japan, with the All Blacks having already claimed this year’s trophy.
The match is the end of the southern hemisphere season and a prelude to the teams’ tour of Europe starting the week after. New Zealand are fresh off their rugby championship win, a competition in which Australia finished third.
In the two previous Bledisloe cup matches this year New Zealand won 38-13 in Sydney and then a week later 40-12 in Auckland. For this match New Zealand are 2/11 outright, Australia best priced 13/2 and +16 on the points handicap.
The All Blacks have welcomes named one debutant in their squad for the third Test, with Dalton Papalii picked. New Zealand also have Dean Coles, Joe Moody, Brodie Retallick and Liam Squire to pick from after they overcame injury concerns picked up playing domestic rugby. Nehe Milner-Skudder has been left out of the squad.
There are three uncapped players in the Australian squad to play Bledisloe 3, with Rebels forward Angus Cottrell and Waratahs duo Jake Gordon and Jed Holloway all a chance to suit up for the Wallabies for the first time in Japan. Also of note is the inclusion of Jack Dempsey, who’s not been in Australia’s line-up for a year.
Against a side that have won less than 50% of their internationals over the last year and 2 of 6 in the rugby championship i expect New Zealand to cover and don’t see why they shouldn’t win in the 20-30 point region that they have done so far in 2018 home and away
8 points New Zealand to win by 21-30 points 7/2 Betfair/Paddy Power 100/30 Coral/ Ladbrokes
Moving time?
This weekend sees the third of three successive London NFL Weekends with the Eagles/Jaguars game in the 12th season of the league’s International Series. Recently an NFL executive Mark Waller has been commenting that the league has now reached the stage where a London team is getting close. He said on his recent trip to London
“We feel the fan demand is here, we feel the stadium infrastructure and optionality is here, we feel the government support is here. We feel the logistics and training side of it are here. We feel very good. Like I’ve always said, the one we can never test for is how does it work week-in and week-out.”
The idea in the first place was to get a team to London 15 years after launching the project. And while there are four years left on that clock, and it’ll take a team relocating or expansion (the former would be more likely than the latter) for the league to actually pull it off, the possibility of a team is increasing.
This year has inadvertently turned into a new way to test the market for the league. With the Tottenham stadium in which the NFL has invested due to host the Seattle game but not ready the NFL has had the opportunity to test Wembley playing a match on three straight weekends. That also opens a window into plans for the team with a London side likely to play home and away games in blocks.
Whilst the Jaguars owner Shad Khan pulling out of buying Wembley might be seen as a setback, Waller has also mentioned the possibility that a London team could have multiple home stadiums
The biggest difference coming in 2019 is that the London games will be announced at the same time as the rest of the schedule, not ahead of time as had been the custom. It’s another step in an effort to “normalise” these games, and prepare for the possibility that a team will be playing some or all of its home schedule there. As for the 2019 schedule itself, there will be four games, two at Wembley and two at Tottenham.
The idea has also been mooted that a “London team” would play four home games here and four home games in a U.S. city”
What is clear is that the goal of putting a team in London that Waller and company set in 2007 has never been closer.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United.
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick and over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford. All weather racing at Wolverhampton
- NFL, Week Seven of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the second round of pool games in the 2018-19 European Rugby Champions Cup
- Cricket, the Sri Lanka England ODI series continues with the Fourth ODI in Kandy on Saturday
- Golf, the Dominion Energy Charity Classic in Virginia.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Antwerp, Stockholm and the Kremlin Cup in Moscow
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip by Neil Channing
Ascot Champions Day 4.30pm the Balmoral Handicap
I don't have a big opinion in terms of the draw in the Balmoral Handicap, the 4.30 at Ascot, so I'm going to assume it will be fairly random as to which side has an edge, but I can see why you might want to wait and bet during the afternoon when things become clearer, although the results from the earlier races could change the prices.
Flipping the bird
In 2011 the NFL introduced a rookie salary cap as part of its new collective bargaining agreement. Since then first overall draft picks are receiving about $55m less on their rookie deals. After 2011 there was a spending increase on veterans as money came out of rookie pools and was available for elsewhere on the roster but most of it has been spent on quarterbacks and franchise players at other high profile positions, which don’t include running back and safety.
The salary cap is rising about $10 million a year and with that, the record for largest contract in history keeps getting broken. Quarterbacks Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan have all broken the record for salaries in the past eighteen months. The salary cap boom has coincided with the rise in passing (helped by rule changes making it tougher to defend without getting penalised) that has seen scoring and passing records broken in the last five years, the latest being Drew Brees last week.
The 2011 CBA led to an unintended consequence which was that teams soon started to change how they constructed their rosters. The few star players apart they began to get younger and cheaper. Football Outsiders, which tracks the age of NFL players said the average age of a player in 2017 was 26.46, the lowest on record.
With cheap young players being more widely used instead of mid-level veterans, those veterans have lost most of their financial leverage.
Teams have been ruthless with their salary cap management. When a franchise extracts all the value it can from a rookie and then lets him go, that front office is doing well for its team but the players have less opportunity to secure that lucrative second contract. The result has been more player hold outs and whilst not all hold outs fail (Khalil Mack was traded, Aaron Donald was paid) the majority do and players return to play,
The sight of Earl Thomas a future Hall of Famer making an obscene gesture to the Seattle bench when being carried from the field in Arizona with a broken leg a fortnight ago is within the context of this ongoing struggle between teams and players.
The Seahawks got a lot of value for their money from Thomas over eight years which his contract expiring after this year. Since Thomas signed his deal in 2014 the safety market has reset within a much bigger salary cap notably with Eric Berry’s $78 million deal last year with the Chiefs. Thomas, whose deal was worth $40m, wanted an extension or a trade, but the Seahawks wanted neither.
Thomas skipped training camp this summer not wanting to get hurt and then showed up for the first week of the season. Thomas then staged a “hold in” for most of September instead of a holdout. This means he was in the building during the week and playing games, but he’d sit on the side at practice in protest of his situation.
In Pittsburgh, star running back Le’Veon Bell is sitting out half the season to preserve his health for free agency at the end of the season. He’s been unhappy with his contract for at least three seasons. Bell was drafted by the Steelers in 2013 and has played six seasons for the team in three of which he made less than $1 million despite making the all-pro team three times.
The modern NFL rewards teams for not allowing the player’s goal which is to land a lucrative second or third contract but giving out as few of those as possible has become the quickest way for a team to build a contender.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the International break features Nations Cup matches including Croatia v England tonight.
- Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, York and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham
- NFL, Week Six of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the start of the 2018-19 European Rugby Champions Cup
- Cricket, the Sri Lanka England ODI series continues with the Second ODI in rainy season Dambulla on Saturday
- Golf, the British Masters at Walton Heath and TPC Kuala Lumpur.
- Tennis, ATP Shanghai
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 4 Ulster v Leicester 5.30pm Saturday
The 2018-19 ERCC pool matches start this weekend and this match sees the two outsiders in the Pool 4 meet at Ravenhill, Belfast
I have first hand knowledge of Leicester, I watch them frequently. I also have, a few years removed, experience of Ulster’s mighty home advantage at Ravenhill. I had been working in Belfast and due to bad weather my Friday afternoon flight back had been cancelled, and I faced an extra night in the Europa hotel. My colleague and I decided to take in Ulster v Llanelli (now the Scarlets) that evening in what was then the Heineken Cup. We went to the bar and in our nice English accents asked for a couple of pints. Time froze as eyebrows raised and the atmosphere quietened. We drank up quickly and proceeded to watch the match (mouths shut) agog at the ferocity of the crowd and the very basic conditions. Since then the ground has been redeveloped but the home advantage is real. Last year in a group containing Wasps and Harlequins, Ulster didn’t come close to qualifying for the knock out stages they won their three home matches including versus the pool winners La Rochelle.
Ulster are currently third in their Pro 14 group and whilst they haven’t been in the vanguard of the re-invention of the Irish provincial game with the agreement between the National Union and the sides helping increase performance and Academies churning out young talent they are still a solid side led by Irish captain Rory Best and with last year’s Six Nations Player of the Year Jacob Stockdale (11 tries in 11 tests at the age of 22, six in last year’s six nations) the finisher on the wing.
Leicester have been rebuilding for ages, and after losing 40-6 at Exeter to start the season sacked coach Matt O’Connor. That rebuilding is affected by the tight salary cap. This is a side that can field when at full strength Ben Youngs, George Ford, Jonny May, Manu Tuilagi and Dan Cole but squad depth is an issue.
Leicester won 1 of 6 games in last season’s ERCC and have won 3 of 6 in the Gallagher Premiership this season. They key issue that interim coach Geordan Murphy has to fix is the defense. In their first four games of the season they conceded 158 points! (40 at Exeter, 33 against Newcastle, 41 at Wasps and 44 at home to Worcester). Things have improved slightly, holding bottom club Sale to 15 and then Northampton to 15 on a wet Saturday last weekend at Wembley.
The essential issues are that George Ford can be attacked in the 10 channel and the back row lacks solidity. Not a great combination heading to Ulster and Stockdale in particular.
Ulster should be comfortable favourites here, more comfortable than an outright price of 4/5 and -3 on the handicap implies
I like them to win by a couple of scores in the Winning margin market in what weather permitting should be a high scoring match but as yet markets and prices are yet to fully form, should be around a 7/2 shot. So for the first time in about 300 columns I am going to put an odds on outright winner bet up (feel I should say sorry!)
20 points Ulster to win at 4/5 William Hill 1.78 Betfair 1.74 Matchbook
A butterly flaps its wings
The NFL has been in an accelerating process of change since the 1990s when studies showing a connection between head blows and brain damage emerged and the existence of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, moved into the public consciousness.
The NFL instituted rules to salvage both its players and its business. The game is changing to survive, and it’s happening in real time. This season those rules were altered again, and the result has been big changes to the way games are refereed in the first few weeks of the new season. At issue is change to an 80-year-old rules infraction.
Widespread confusion was foreseen when in the off-season the NFL created a rule to penalise any player lowering his helmet to initiate contact and indeed it was the source of much angst in the pre-season. However it is a different rule that has thrown the NFL into chaos.
This offseason, the league’s rules committee quietly decreed that officials would more aggressively enforce a “body weight” rider to the roughing-the-passer rule with a single word change. The original rider, added in 1995, states: “When tackling a passer during or just after throwing a pass, a defensive player is prohibited from unnecessarily and violently throwing him down and landing on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight.”
For 2018, the last part reads, “a defensive player is prohibited from unnecessarily and violently throwing him down or landing on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight.”
Now what players, commentators and fans routinely deem as legal tackles are being flagged. The Packers’ Clay Matthews was the highest profile “victim” of the change, flagged for a hit on the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Matthews hit Cousins just after the QB released the ball, and while he did hit him in the chest and take him to the ground, Matthews also kept his own head out of the play. Green Bay was penalised, and what would have been a game-clinching interception on the play was negated. The teams finished tied at 29. In Week 3, Dolphins defensive end William Hayes tore his right ACL trying to avoid landing on top of Raiders quarterback Derek Carr during a sack.
Through the first four weeks of the regular season there have been 38 roughing the passer calls in 63 games. In 2017 there 21 in the same number of games. Just changing one word in an old rule has changed the outcome of games.
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