Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield and Taunton and on the all- weather at Southwell.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Pool matches
- Cricket, England’s ODI tour of Sri Lanka begins next week in Colombo
- NFL, The NFL play-offs: Divisional Round
- Golf, the American Express on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, the Australian Open begins next week
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4
Bristol v Bordeaux Sunday 1pm
The last round of Pool matches take place this weekend. The following teams are already through to the last 16: Glasgow, Sale, Leinster, Harlequins, Bordeaux-Begles, Bristol, Northampton.
With the likes of six-time winners Toulouse, three-time champions Saracens, English champions Bath and United Rugby Championship leaders Stormers yet to secure their places, the final round of pool fixtures should be tense.
In Pool 4 Bordeaux, defending champions are currently a point ahead of Bristol, and four points ahead of Northampton at the top of the pool. Northampton would expect to gain a five-point win at home to the Scarlets this weekend, and Bristol and Bordeaux play each other, the loser would be at risk of dropping out of the top two sides. Bristol and Bordeaux play before Northampton play (3.15pm Sunday) so both should be at full pelt to win the group.
This is important because the higher the seeding for the last sixteen, the longer you are guaranteed home advantage for the knockout stages. The top four teams from each pool qualify for the last 16, with the top two qualifying with home advantage.
Whilst the round of 16 follows a pre-determined format, the quarter-finals see home advantage given to the higher ranked team, based on a pre-determined match-up. As such the teams seeded 1 to 4 are guaranteed home advantage if they reach the quarter-final, and teams seeded 13 to 16 are guaranteed an away fixture if they do so. Whether a team ranked from 5 to 12 will play home or away will depend on other results in their section of the bracket.
Winning a pool reduces the risk of, for example, a long trip to South Africa or a tough away game at Saracens or Toulouse, teams likely to be in that 5-12 seeding range.
This should be a very high scoring game between two of the most attacking teams in Europe. For example, Bristol (4th in the English Prem with seven wins from 9 games) travelled to the altitude of Pretoria last weekend and scored 61 points conceding 49 in beating a Bulls side containing 10 South African Internationals. Earlier in the pool they scored 61 points in beating Pau, too.
Bordeaux meanwhile (4th in the French Top 14) put 50 points on Prem leaders Northampton last Sunday and this follows 50-21 and 46-33 Pool wins at home to the Scarlets and away at the Bulls respectively.
A differentiating factor here between two such attacking sides is that the Bordeaux pack thrashed Northampton last weekend and that power should guarantee them a majority of front foot ball.
11 points Bordeaux-Begles to win -5.5 points at 10/11 generally.
Squad cost ratios
Premier League clubs have voted to overhaul the league’s financial regulations from the start of the 2026-27 season. Squad cost ratio (SCR) will replace the league’s current profitability and sustainability rules (PSR), which limit club losses to a maximum of £105million ($137m) over a three-year period.
There was insufficient support for a proposal on Top to Bottom Anchoring. SCR will regulate clubs’ on-pitch spending to 85% of their football revenue and net profit/loss on player sales. Clubs will have a multi-year allowance of 30% that they can use to spend in excess of the 85%. Utilising this allowance will incur a levy and once the allowance is exhausted, they will need to comply with 85% or face a sporting sanction.
SCR was unpopular with low-revenue, middle-ranking aspirational clubs, and anchoring was unpopular with the very wealthiest clubs.
The proposal was originally to vote once on a total package, but then that was split into three sequential votes: first, anchoring; then a third uncontroversial sustainability measure; and finally, SCR. The Premier League says that the clubs could yet return to anchoring.
The biggest clubs, with access to Champions League and Fifa Club World Cup revenue, can spend much more money than the lower-earning clubs with smaller stadiums and much smaller commercial deals. There is nothing controlling the top limit of Champions League clubs’ spending. Commercial revenues are soaring and so too the broadcast rights from UEFA. One only needs to look at the new deals agreed for the 2027-33 cycle with the likes of Paramount+ in Britain and across Europe.
Six clubs that stood against SCR are six whom the Premier League would in other circumstances hold up for good financial management and shrewd strategy. They are Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Leeds United. None of these six ever joined a rebel Super League. None ever breached the current financial controls.
There is a possibility that a club like Leeds or Fulham straying over that 85% spending-to-revenue ratio may have to pay a luxury-tax levy that ends up, in part, with Manchester United or Manchester City.
One does wonder what some clubs that voted for SCR see as the advantage for them. Burnley, with a turnover of around £140m, compared to the £650m or more that the biggest clubs enjoy, must have a plan for survival. But should they find themselves back in a Championship with the Football League having adopted the same SCR rules then it is hard to see how they, or others like them, can square the circle. This is a chart from The Athletic that summarises the current position relative to UEFA and new Premier league thresholds.
For those clubs like Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest, for whom a place in a UEFA competition is crucial to compliance with SCR, there will be an even greater pressure. The new rules have wiped out the PSR techniques eg selling a hotel or a stadium-site venue within the group to generate compliant book profit. When the extra 30% threshold is breached and a points deduction looms, there truly will be no option but to sell players.
What made the Premier League different is the jeopardy of match day, the possibility of the challenger. Take that away and it diminishes everyone, from the wealthiest to the smallest earners. A Premier League in which the biggest clubs are protected from the effect of mistakes by virtue of their wealth, and a hierarchy that never changes, will be less attractive to the broadcasters whose billions of pounds fund the operation. Were that to happen, the clubs who voted against SCR will be those it costs the most.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all- weather at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Football, FA Cup Third Round.
- NFL, The Wild Card round begins the NFL play-offs
- Rugby Union, the third round of Pool matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and the Dubai Invitational on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Adelaide and ASB Classic
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool Round 3
Saracens v Toulouse Sunday 5.30pm
Two European Competition heavyweights play this weekend in the third round of pool games. Saracens are three times winners of this competition, last in 2019 and runners-up once. Toulouse have won six times, last in 2024, four times runners-up.
Saracens in particular though are not a team of the same quality of those tournament winning teams. This year in the ERCC they beat the weakest of the French sides in the competition Clermont 47-10 at home before losing 28-23 to the Durban Sharks with a much-changed team, and it was job done with a losing bonus point gained.
They are in the middle of a rebuilding phase, shown by their sixth place in the current Prem table at the half way point of the season with 4 wins and 5 losses, most recently 28-36 in Leicester last weekend. Mark McCall, the director of rugby, was scathing about his side’s attitude and application. If Leicester can carve them open with such ease, to lead 26-7 at the interval and 34-14 after an hour, what will Toulouse and Glasgow Warriors do to them in the Champions Cup over the next two weekends?
Saracens are introducing a lot of young players onto the core of a team including Itoje, Farrell, Daly, George etc all experienced internationals.
Toulouse were European Champions in 2024 and semi-finalists last year losing to eventual winners Bordeaux-Begles. They were ante-post favourites for another European title this year and two rounds in retain that positioning at odds of 13/5.
This despite a dramatic loss in the second round 28-21 in Glasgow from 17-3 up. In the first round they beat the Sharks 56-19.
They are top of the French top 14 table with 10 wins from 14 games averaging 40 points a game, despite a surprise 27-30 loss to Perpignan last weekend with a much rotated team ahead of this game in London.
Here I would expect all the big guns in action from Ramos, Ntamack, Kinghorn and Dupont to Willis, Marchand, Cros, Flament and Meafou in the forwards. I expect them to justify -11.5-points on the spread with Saracens in a state of flux.
11 points Toulouse -11.5 points at 10/11 generally
Kicking Off
The NFL’s new kick-off rules this season have reinvigorated the play, with the return rate spiking this year. With more returns though have come more injuries, including a surge in concussions that could prompt another look at how to manage player safety during kick-offs.
Through this season, 79.3% of kick-offs had been returned, a big jump from the 31.7% return rate last season. The rate of concussions per 100 kick-offs rose from 0.09 in 2024 to 1.18 this season roughly five times the league’s baseline concussion rate on run or pass plays.
Kick-off injuries became a storyline almost immediately this season, when Philadelphia Eagles fullback Ben VanSumeren suffered a torn patella tendon on the opening kick-off of the season. New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson, one of six players to record a kick return touchdown in 2025, suffered a big hit on a kick-off return in a Week 5 win against the Buffalo Bills. The injury resulted in a torn ACL and put him out for the season.
There have been 18 concussions on kick-off plays compared to just one in the same time period last season.
The League introduced dynamic kick-offs after just 22% of kickoffs were returned in 2023, the lowest rate in NFL history. The NFL had previously made changes to the play meant to reduce the number of returns because of the danger of high-speed collisions.
Team owners approved the new kickoff rules in a 29-3 vote in March 2024, hoping to make kickoffs both safer and more relevant.
Dynamic kick-offs cals for players on the kicking team to line up at the opposing 40-yard line, the receiving team between the 30- and 35-yard lines and returners in the “landing zone” (between the 20-yard line and the end zone).
The inaugural dynamic kickoff season saw a slight uptick in action (32.8% of kickoffs returned), and the NFL made the change permanent in the 2025 offseason while also making more tweaks in hopes of a more dramatic increase.
The most notable change is the placement of the ball at the 35-yard line on touchbacks (5 yards further up-field than in 2024 and 10 yards further than pre-dynamic kickoff). The thought was that giving the receiving team better field position on a touchback would incentivise the kicking team to aim for the landing zone and hope to make a stop on a return.
The intent of the dynamic kickoff remained the same through the changes: to bring the play back to life while eliminating the running start players had on traditional kickoffs that led to big collisions, concussions and other injuries.
This regular season there were more than twice the number of 40-plus-yard returns however there are now thoughts that the competition committee will consider more tweaks in an effort to confront the rising injuries.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th January
Happy New Year Everyone
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and on the all- weather at Lingfield and Southwell.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test Match in Sydney starting on Saturday
- NFL, Week 18 of the regular season
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane and Hong Kong
Free Tip
FA Cup ante-post
Ahead of the third-round next weekend, and following Crystal Palace’s win last season at 33-1, the annual attempt to spot some each-way ante-post value in the FA Cup.
A “non-top six” team has made the final in 12 of the last 20 years though a top six side has won the competition in 17 of those years.
These are the current odds before the sides from the top two divisions enter the competition:
Man C 9/2
Liverpool 5
Arsenal 6
Chelsea 8
Newcastle 10
Man U 16
Aston Villa 18
Tottenham 20
My thesis is that whilst every top team will rotate their line-ups in this competition especially after the busy Christmas period the priorities for the top 8-9 in the league (win the title or make the top six or qualify for Europe) and the bottom six (avoid relegation) particularly conflict with this competition and there are teams who aren’t making the top six or at risk of going down who should be prioritising this tournament. Frankly it doesn’t always work out like that, and each year I’ll raise an eyebrow when a team in 12th place in the Premier League rotates and loses in the FA Cup come February/March.
These days there is also another source of variance, no FA Cup replays, which in principle increases the odds of upsets over a one-off tie rather than bigger teams being able to have a home replay or second chance if the first game was at home.
This year I alighted on these possible teams for each-way value: Each-way terms are routinely ½ 1,2.
Everton 25/1
Bournemouth 25/1
Brighton 25/1
Fulham 40/1
Sunderland 66/1
Everton though have drawn Sunderland at home, so we can draw a line through them. Bournemouth are away at Newcastle, the same applies. Brighton are away at Manchester United.
Fulham have Middlesbrough at home, a tough Championship side admittedly.
Fulham are currently 10th in the Premier League, 13 points clear of the relegation places and fit the criteria to me always accepting that even if they progress a tough draw can happen in any round.
10 points each-way (1/2 1,2) Fulham to win the FA Cup at 40-1 Bet365 and William Hill
Holding on
Watch any NFL game and you will see offensive linemen striving to stop pass rushers reaching their Quarterback yet holding is routinely not called by today’s NFL officials. Coincidentally (or not), the NFL wants yards and points and offensive excitement.
Before 1978, offensive linemen couldn’t extend their hands to block. They had to keep their fists together and elbows out before the NFL realized that making it easier to block defensive linemen would open up the passing game.
Still, it has now got out of control. Late in a mid-season 8 game between the Vikings and Chargers, Prime Video played clips of all-pro left tackle Joe Alt’s plays during his first game back from a high ankle sprain. In every one of them, he was holding the pass rusher, to some degree.
At this point, teams should be coaching their offensive linemen to do it. It’s similar to the Legion of Boom’s approach to covering receivers. Hold them on every play because the officials won’t bog the game down by constantly throwing flags.
As to holding, there are times when they never throw a flag. Put simply, the officials have allowed the sheer volume of holding fouls to overpower the system.
The NFL wants yards and points and bets and viewers. Calling every hold that happens would directly impact each of those valuable factors of modern-day pro football.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches weekend of 20th-21st December
Happy Christmas everyone, the column will be back for the weekend of 3rd-4th January 2026.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Hereford and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle United v Chelsea and Tottenham v Liverpool.
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test in Melbourne starting on Boxing Day
- NFL, Week 16 including the New England Patriots at the Baltimore Ravens
Free Tip
Gallagher Prem Rugby Saracens versus Exeter Chiefs, Saturday 3pm
After the opening two rounds of the European competitions the Gallagher Prem returns for the Christmas period. Here sixth placed Saracens host 2nd place Exeter Chiefs on Saturday afternoon.
In the last fortnight Saracens beat (probably the weakest current French team in the ERCC) Clermont 47-10 before travelling to Durban to platy the Sharks with a team resting a number of the more experienced players and lost 28-23 winning a losing bonus point. Job done in those circumstances.
Resting Itoje, Earl and Farrell amongst others for that game is presumably with the aim of playing them here in a team that is in a modest rebuilding phase, introducing young talent into the first team. Prime amongst these is the exciting, big and very fast winger Noah Caluori who is brilliant in the aerial game.
At home this season in the domestic competition Saracens have two big wins (50-17 over Bristol and 65-14 over Sale) and a narrow 29-36 loss to champions Bath.
Exeter Chiefs have emerged from a several year period of the doldrums and a rebuild to rise to second place in the early league table with four wins and a draw from their first six matches.
Exeter have scored 39 points less than Saracens in six points but conceded 43 points fewer. Their games tend to be lower scoring. Whilst Exeter have three home wins from three (comparatively easy fixtures, Harlequins, Gloucester and Newcastle) but understandably more mixed away but with a great draw at Northampton to open the season and a win at Sale.
In the European Champions cup they started off beating the South African Cheetahs 42-12 before a creditable 31-31 at Racing92 in Paris with a much-changed team.
Exeter’s fortunes are on the up thanks in part due to overseas recruitment, the current team includes two current Australian Internationals Ikitau in the centre and Tom Hooper in the back-row alongside experienced prop Scott Sio.
Saracens are -10.5 here. Both teams are likely to be at full strength. I intend taking the Chiefs with the points given their form and 23-man depth this season to cpmpete in games like this.
12 points Exeter Chiefs +10.5 points at 10/11 generally
Contracts.
14 England cricket players signed new two-year central contracts which includes a home Ashes series in 2027 followed by a 50-over World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia.
All of the 16 players in the squad for the current Ashes in Australia have been handed a contract of at least one year. Eleven of the Ashes squad have signed two-year deals.
Four of the five with one-year contracts - batsmen Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, spinner Shoaib Bashir and seamer Matthew Potts - are not multi-format players, while 35-year-old pace bowler Mark Wood is entering the final part of a three-year contract he signed in 2023.
The decision to offer Ollie Pope and Zak Crawley just one-year deals which is, perhaps, most revealing. Pope has, in recent months, gone from vice-captain and permanent No.3 to something far more precarious. It is clear that Jacob Bethell, who has a two-year deal, is close to takign his place after Pope's Ashes performances to date.
Bethell is currently involved in all formats and, unlike Pope, will be a target for sides in the IPL and beyond. For that reason, it could be argued that he requires more of the protection which a central contract offers.
England have invested heavily in Crawley over recent years with much of the faith based on the belief he will perform in Australia. It's tempting to conclude that that faith England will now move on.
Signing one-year deals for the first time are pace bowlers Sonny Baker, Saqib Mahmood and Luke Wood, along with all-rounder Liam Dawson.
Chris Woakes, who retired from international cricket last month, drops off the list. Jonny Bairstow's two-year central contract has finally come to an end, while spinner Jack Leach also misses out. All-rounder Liam Livingstone has not played for England since the Champions Trophy in March and loses his deal, along with pace bowlers Olly Stone and Reece Topley.
There are some intriguing absences. There's no Jordan Cox, for example, who has just won the PCA's men's player of the year and looks an exceptional talent with the bat and in the field. There's no Tom Banton, either, despite his regular appearances in squads recently.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
Weekend of 13th-14th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Sunderland v Newcastle United.
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Adelaide next week
- NFL, Week 15 fixtures include the Green Bay Packers at the Denver Broncos
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages Round 2.
- Golf, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup
Pool 3 Stormers v La Rochelle 1pm Saturday
Two teams who won their first pool matches meet in the Eastern Cape this weekend in Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth).
The Stormers have won 6 in a row in the URC this season, including most recently downing unbeaten Munster away 27-21 from 15 points down. Last week they travelled to France and beat Bayonne 26-17 despite playing the last thirty minutes with 14 man after a red card.
The Stormers, who had won 23 scrum penalties this season coming into the match, dominated at the set-piece and by half-time alone their four scrums had produced three penalties and a free-kick. Here they look set to bring back Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Cobus Reinach from South Africa’s autumn tour.
La Rochelle beat Leicester Tigers 39-20 at home in the first game of this year’s ERCC. They are only 10th in the current French Top 14 table having won just 5 of 11 games.
This should be a big set-piece battle as La Rochelle, including Skelton and Alldrit in their pack, are powerful and well coached.
The spread for this game opened Stormers +14.5. By the time the news came out about the Springboks being available for selection, and potentially a La Rochelle line-up resting some players from last week, the line moved to a whopping +26.5 points. That looks excessive against an experienced Top 14 side/squad.
12 points La Rochelle +26.5 points at 10/11 generally
The 2027 Rugby World Cup Draw
The seeded draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia took place in December resulting as follows:
Pool A: New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong China, Chile
Pool B: South Africa, Italy, Georgia, Romania
Pool C: Argentina, Fiji, Spain, Canada
Pool D: Ireland, Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal,
Pool E: France, Japan, USA, Samoa
Pool F: England, Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe
Match-ups for a round of 16 are pre-determined with the winners of Pools A-D facing the four best third place finishers. Winners of Pools E-F will face runners-up. However the ideal route for teams in the draw is: 1. Be drawn in Pool E or F 2. Win that Pool. Doing this will see you avoid any other pool winners until the semi-final stage.
On seeding the two-halves of the draw at the Quarter-final stage would be:
New Zealand v South Africa
France v Fiji
-----
England v Australia
Ireland v Argentina
England for example have a nice looking pool they should win, then a potential last-sixteen tie against Italy but potentially a tough Quarter-final against the hosts, who might be considerably better come 2027. In good news they and Ireland, if results go according to plan, would be in the other half of the draw to New Zealand, South Africa and France.
Ireland cannot take anything at a World Cup for granted but their Scotland/Uruguay & Portugal draw could not have gone better followed by a third place team ahead of an Argentina Quarter
It’s a really tough draw for Scotland. If they come second in their group (likely because of Ireland), they will play the Group E winners in the last 16 almost certainly France.
Wales meanwhile are most likely to have a knockout run of Fiji then France.
Ante-post odds two years out are as follows:
South Africa 5/2
New Zealand 4/1
France 9/2
England 9/2
Ireland 13/2
Australia 9/1
Argentina 16/1
Scotland 33/1
Fiji 50/1
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
