The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th July

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup last sixteen matches.
• Cricket, the England-India T20 series continues.
• Rugby Union, the new Nations Championship begins including South Africa-England in Johannesburg and New Zealand-France in Christchurch.
• Formula One, the British Grand Prix
• Golf, the Scottish Open and the ISCO Championships.
• Tennis, Wimbledon continues.

Glorious Goodwood

After a great Royal Ascot week next up for us is Goodwood in July. Get all the write ups and bets for the 5 day festival for £150 here 

Free Tip

Nations Championship Rugby South Africa v England 4.40pm Saturday Johannesburg

The first weekend of the new Nations Championship. A reminder, it is a bi-annual international competition featuring the twelve top ranked teams. The teams are divided into two pools of six southern and northern hemisphere teams, and play a full round-robin of matches with the teams in the opposing pool across id-year and end-of-year international windows, with the top teams in each pool advancing to a Nations Championship final in London.

England have the toughest start, South Africa away this weekend in Johannesburg then return for an 'away' fixture against Fiji at Everton's Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool before travelling to Argentina in Round 3.

England have much to prove after a Six Nations in which they finished fifth with just one win from five games. In a remarkable interview before leaving for South Africa (not sure it was meant to be remarkable, but it revealed much) interim England captain Jamie George admitted that England “hadn’t really focused too much on phase attack” during the lead-up to the Six Nations. The scope for preparation was sparse because of the crowded domestic and European schedule. England’s strategic choices hurt them when Scotland and Ireland built significant leads because, as George put it, “we basically didn’t have a plan B”.

This is important in international rugby in 2026 as rugby has moved far more towards a multi-phase attacking game with off-loads, recycling the ball and  this has seen much higher scoring matches, a trend that is likely to continue until defences catch up with the new meta and a degree of stability is restored to the attack/defence balance.

The average number of tries in matches among the ten Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams has risen from 5.2 in 2016 to 7.4 this year. This year’s Six Nations featured two matches in which sides lost despite scoring 40 points. One of these was England in the final game of the tournament in Paris which came, we now learn, after England’s attack coach Lee Blackett was granted “more time and more licence” to implement multi-phase strategies before the Italy and France games. 

This hopefully is encouraging for the year to come before the 2027 World Cup. There are some issues though. The first three matches of this Championship come at the end of a long Northern Hemisphere season, which itself followed a Lions Tour. That gruelling schedule accounts for the absence of captain Maro Itoje this summer.

England flew across last week and have a week to acclimatise to altitude (5,750 feet above sea level) in limited preparation time as the Prem play-offs have only just concluded.

South Africa is well clear at the top of the World rankings (England a distant sixth) and have huge player depth that understandably makes them strong favourites for this tournament and the upcoming World Cup.

Notwithstanding the absence of outstanding fly half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu for the coming weeks, the Springboks have become a more incisive attacking outfit under the attack coach Tony Brown. They scored over 40 points per Test match in 2025. They have selected what looks to be their strongest available team. Admittedly it has many players on the wrong side of 30 years old but the team looks hugely strong. I expect they’ll rotate for subsequent matches but for now the a) respect for England and b) grudge against England has seen them go all-out here and despite a few injury absences its an incredible strong 23..

South Africa may see some early season clunkiness but the way the game is currently being played suggests a shoot-out is far more likely. England continue to talk about “playing big” but the challenges are enormous here, especially with the relative strength of the two benches for the second half. They will try to attack fly-half Libbok who is prone to mistakes. Fail to pressure him and it could be a long day.

Outright odds for the Nations Championship are as follows:

South Africa 2/1

France 3/1

New Zealand 4/1

England 11/2

Ireland 13/2

Australia 14/1

For this opening game South Africa are 14.5-point favourites on the handicap spread.  That’s a big spread to cover assuming England can at least hold their own up front and England are a side who scored 46-points in Paris last time out.

I worry about the last Quarter of the game at altitude for England but getting more than two converted tries as a start I think we can take a view on England’s attack putting up enough points to make covering a probability.

10 points England +14.5-points at 10/11 generally

A level playing field?

It is now six seasons since an English PREM team won the European Champions Cup. Bath made the semi-finals this year but clearly were behind the top three sides in Europe, Bordeaux Begles, Leinster and Toulouse, defeated at Bordeuax in a brilliant Quarter-Final.

Six years ago Exeter supplemented the success of Saracens to make it four Premiership winners in five years; a bygone era. Even allowing for the cyclical nature of sport such English dominance feels a long way away.

The progression of Bordeaux and Leinster to this year’s final meant that a series of six Champions Cup finals has been contested by only five teams: those two, plus Toulouse, La Rochelle and, courtesy of stunning Dublin upset last year, Northampton Saints.

English teams have an essential problem in the modern era that Bath have shown, they are spending up to the PREM salary cap and yet couldn’t reach the final. Might it require the present level of the salary cap to be raised in the league’s franchised future?

Factoring in the wages of their marquee player, Finn Russell, Bath spend  £2m beyond the basic ceiling of £6.4m. Figures released recently by Ligue National de Rugby outlined that seven Top 14 teams ( Toulouse, Bordeaux, Toulon, Montpellier, Stade Français, Clermont Auvergne and La Rochelle) spent more than £8.5m to their playing budget alone in the 2024-25 season. 

French clubs can spend €10.7m. Even accounting for a Top 14 calendar comprising 26 regular-season fixtures rather than 18 in the Prem, that excess can be put to good use. Bath still have to compromise in squad composition.

A salary cap makes it more difficult to keep a squad together and build cohesion from season to season. Any “Super Bowl window” for success is smaller because rosters must be trimmed and reset more regularly. Du Toit and Barbeary left Bath this summer, for instance. Furbank is leaving Northampton for Harlequins. The Prem salary cap has good intentions. It helps to prevent clubs from overreaching, saving themselves from themselves, and increases the competitiveness of the league by redistributing talent. But it is not condusive to landing the Champions Cup.

An English team would have to be diligent with youth production, recruitment and retention, as well as being lucky and extremely accurate on the pitch, to prevail in the Champions Cup. A skinnier salary cap is a significant hindrance. Winning on the road in pool matches to earn a home knockout run seems vital. Which English team is capable of all that when fighting on two fronts?

The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Chester, Lingfield, Windsor and York and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
• Football, the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup Group stages.
• Cricket, the England-India T20 series begins next week.
• Rugby Union, the new Nations Championship begins next weekend
• Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
• Golf, the John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the BMW International on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, Wimbledon begins on Monday

Glorious Goodwood

After a great Royal Ascot week next up for us is Goodwood in July. Get all the write ups and bets for the 5 day festival for £150 here 

Free Tip

Austrian Grand Prix, Sunday 2pm

As we head into the bulk of the European Grand Prix summer season, this weekend sees the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg, the eighth race of the season.

Antonelli leads the drivers’ Championship by 41 points, Mercedes leads the Constructors Championship by 72 points.

Mercedes won the first six races of the season under the new regulations before Hamilton won his first race for Ferrari in Barcelona last time out having finished second in the previous two races. Of those six wins Russell won the first race of the season before Antonelli won the next five, Russell suffering both bad luck and engine failures and being outdriven by his team-mate until Antonelli suffered an engine failure of his own in Spain.

Ferrari brought no less than 8 upgrades for Spain, significantly improving the aerodynamics on what has been the best car this season in slower corners. The Ferrari lacks some engine power (though has now been permitted two engine upgrade packages for this season and next, giving them, a chance to catch-up with Mercedes) but has strong downforce/drag and its smaller turbo ensures strong starts, all helping to keep them competitive.

Barcelona was not an especially power-sensitive track but the next three races, Austria, Britain and Belgium are all on power-heavy tracks and its unlikely Ferrari will beat Mercedes at these venues.

Austria for example is the shortest track on the schedule but characterised by two particularly long straights which accentuates the effect of engine power yet having been able to back the Ferraris at 10/1 plus for race wins earlier in the season we are now asked to take Hamilton 4/1 LeClerc 6/1 instead. The Ferrari package is upgraded for sure but with an engine disadvantage it shouldn’t matter.

Meanwhile in the fifth and sixth races of the season Antonelli was 5/6 for race wins, now we can get up to 2/1 Antonelli and 3/1 Russell. This is becoming value for the tracks we are about to see races on.

These are the best outright odds for Austria

Antonelli 7/4

Russell 3/1

Hamilton 4/1

LeClerc 13/2

Verstappen 10/1

Norris 16/1

Bar 20/1

It’s tempting to recommend Russell at a point larger than Antonelli, except that he himself says the car doesn’t suit his driving style much, and just before Antonelli’s engine failure late on in Barcelona he had been overtaken on track by his teammate.

15 points Kimi Antonelli to win the Austrian Grand Prix at 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral,  William Hill and BetVictor

Opaque

The inaugural Nations Championship begins next weekend, with the 12 top ranked sides playing in two pools (Northern and Southern Hemisphere) where teams from each pool plays all the teams in the opposite pool once, three times at home, three away over two consecutive International windows. The winners of the North and South pools will contest the final

In May the conclusion of the RFU’s two-month review into England’s worst Six Nations campaign was announced. Steve Borthwick’s position as head coach, under threat after England lost four championship games for the first time since 1976, was confirmed. 

After England’s defeat by Italy, the RFU offered qualified support until the end of the summer; effectively giving Borthwick four games to prove he could lift England out of their Six Nations malaise. The RFU has now chosen not to wait for the evidence of challenging summer Tests against South Africa, Fiji and Argentina.  There had been talk of the RFU modernising its structure by installing a director of rugby or of coaching changes to give Borthwick more experience in his management team. None of that has happened. 

Sir Clive Woodward has been calling for the appointment of a director of rugby for at least 15 years a figure with expertise who can work with the head coach and provide real time reviews and the current structure where the Head coach reports to a Chief Executive who outsources rugby decisions to consultants seems sub-optimal.

With Borthwick in place through until the 2027 World Cup there are unanswered questions that presumably the review dealt with, but which we remain unaware of, such as leadership issues and selection errors during the Six Nations and probably more importantly, what about the structural issues within the English game that have led to long-term underperformance; a losing record in four of the past six championships? 

Throughout the Six Nations Borthwick talkedy about his team “playing big”, playing fast, moving the ball and being dynamic; bringing their club form to the Test stage but that was rarely how England are set up. It would appear to have been evident through the process that England players do not want to be weighed down by the shackles of a proscriptive game plan. They want to be empowered to play what they see, as they did against France in the last game of the Championship when all pressure was off. 

Now comes the Nations Championship. We’ll see if the bold approach persists in the toughest possible first round game.

England’s Nations Championship fixtures

Round 1 July 4: South Africa v England, Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Round 2 July 11: Fiji v England, Hill Dickinson Stadium
Round 3 July 18: Argentina v England, Santiago del Estero
Round 4 November 8: England v Australia, Twickenham
Round 5 November 14: England v Japan, Twickenham
Round 6 November 21: England v New Zealand, Twickenham
Finals weekend November 27-29: TBC, Twickenham

The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr, Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket and Redcar.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages continue
• Cricket, the third England New Zealand Test at Trent Bridge next Wednesday
• Rugby Union, the Gallagher PREM Grand Final at Twickenham
• Golf, the Travelers Championship on the USPGA and the Italian Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Eastbourne and Wimbledon qualifying.

Free Tip

Gallagher Prem final Northampton v Exeter, Saturday 3pm Twickenham

Last weekend the Exeter Chiefs became the first team to finish third in the regular season league table and make the play-off final since 2010.

They did so by coming back from 26-10 down at half time to last season’s Champions Bath to win 27-26, defending for an incredible 43 phases on their line at the end of the game (Bath didn’t attempt a drop goal, curious!)

This was the first Prem play-off win by an away team in five years. Exeter still haven’t lost a semi-final and they went off +9.5 points, winning by a point despite missing two kickable conversions for another four points.

Bath away was clearly a tough challenge, now comes the best team of the current season the Northampton Saints, scores of 38 points a game in the regular season and 14-point winners over Leicester in their semi-final scoring 45 points and scoring six tries. Concidentally, this is a final between eighth and ninth in last year’s league.

Nobody in the European leagues scores tries like Northampton. With one game to go they are in pole position to finish ahead of all others in the try scoring ranks this season:

Northampton, played 24, 144 tries, average 5.76 a game

Toulouse played 32, 169 tries, average 5.28

Bordeaux played 34, 163 tries, average 4.8

Leinster played 28, 120 tries, average 4.28

Fortunately for Exeter, potentially, Northampton have a weakness. Just looking at these two teams, Northampton have conceded 536 points in 18 Prem matches, Exeter just 367. Particularly in the second half of the season Exeter have developed the firepower out wide and   at full strength at front the platform to get quick ball for them. The excellent overseas recruitment of Hooper and Ikitau from Australis, in particular, have elevated the side into a real contender.

Northampton clearly should be favourites and indeed are -6.5, a line that soon moved to -7.5 points and went back again midweek. This line provides an opportunity to go for the column hat-trick on Exeter in what could and should be a high scoring match.

10 points Exeter Chiefs +7.5 points at 10/11 generally

Destinations

The British & Irish Lions have taken a step towards changing their established touring schedule by exploring new destinations including France, the Americas and Japan.

Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have hosted on a quadrennial rotation since 1989 but the Lions are assessing the viability of altering that pattern and bringing other locations into the mix. The prospect of a full tour to France was raised officially 18 months ago.

However any move to visit the southern hemisphere giants once every 16, not 12, years would be met with a negative reaction in Australia, South Africa and New Zealand.

It is likely that those Sanzaar unions, particularly New Zealand and South Africa, would threaten to pull out of November tours to the northern hemisphere. At present, the revenue generated by those autumn matches hosted by the Six Nations countries is not shared with their southern hemisphere counterparts.

There is a suggestion, therefore, that the All Blacks and Springboks could pivot to exploring further money-making Tests in the United States, such as their “Greatest Rivalry” fourth Test in Baltimore this year, if the Lions threatened their financial futures by extending the gaps between their touring visits, which provide huge cash injections.

They will consider alterations to the host allocation model, for instance whether it becomes a 16-year rotation with an additional destination (eg France, Japan or Argentina) integrated alongside the existing three to significantly increase revenue, margin and profit from each tour. The Lions are expected to play France in a one-off match before the 2029 New Zealand tour.

The news is sure to cause a stir among the Sanzaar nations of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa given the importance of Lions tours to their financial security. Rugby Australia posted a record annual profit of AUS $70.6million (£37.4million) from Lions year, which compared to a $36.8million loss the previous year.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages are underway including England v Croatia next midweek
• Formula One, the Catalunya Grand Prix in Barcelona
• Rugby Union, the Gallagher Prem Play-Off semi-finals
• Cricket, the second England New Zealand Test at The Oval next Wednesday
• Golf, the US Open at Shinnecock Hills.
• Tennis, ATP HSBC Championships at Queens

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026

Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next week here

Free Tip

Gallagher Prem Play Offs: Semi-Final. Bath v Exeter Saturday 3pm

Last year’s play-off winners Bath secured second place in the regular season league table with a 24-22 win over the Leicester Tigers last weekend and therefore have home advantage here. That win was achieved despite the resting of Finn Russell at fly-half.

Exeter hosted Saracens in the final week of the season, a knock-out game for the final play-off spot. They survived a nervy first half performance to pull away in the second half and win comfortably 32-12. With Leicester’s loss and a bonus point for scoring four tries, Exeter climbed into third place, sending Leicester to Northampton this Friday night and Exeter to Bath on Saturday.

This is Exeter’s first play-off berth for five years since their championship winning sides of the pre-Covid seasons. Two things have happened for this team relative to their previous strong teams. This team is more expansive, and certainly in the second half of the season has the firepower to compete with the best sides. Previously they were an attritional side based off forward power. Secondly owner investment has helped the recruitment of Australians Ken Ikitau, Scott Sio and Tom Hooper and Italian Andrea Zambonin alongside a lot of young talent coming through their system.

In all probability it’s a year too early to expect Exeter to win the Prem by getting past both Bath and (probably) Northampton but they’ll certainly be very competitive this weekend. In the history of these semi-finals in the Prem play-offs 80% of games have been won by the home side. Bath are 8.5-point favourites at home, and getting more than a score (seven points for a converted try) on the visitors appeals, with the slight concern reflected in a lower bet size than last week that their “cup final” was last week

10 points Exeter Chiefs +8.5 points at Bath at 10/11 generally

Billions

After the pre-season investment into Newcastle rugby by Red Bull, the season just finished has seen multiple investments into Prem rugby sides by investors from outside the sport including James Dyson at Bath and financier Steve Zander at Northampton, followed by the Exeter Chiefs subject to a takeover from Bill Foley, owner of AFC Bournemouth and the Vegas Golden Knights NHL franchise.

It has long been predicted that the adoption of the no-relegation policy and moving towards a franchise model familiar in US sports would attract capital from outside rugby as the sport modernises with new TV rights included.

Meanwhile change is being seen at the player level too. Finn Russell has joined Henry Pollock in signing with Barry Hearn’s Matchroom Entertainment and is described modestly on the talent agency’s website as the “Lionel Messi of Rugby”. 

 The previous club owners and this season’s sellers have funded professional rugby in England to the tune of accumulated losses of roughly £1bn over the past 30 years. Now the sport needs to secure prospects for sides below the top rank and the grass roots as well as the elite.

The newly arrived owners are the beneficiaries of the Professional Game Partnership, which was agreed between the Rugby Football Union and the Premiership in 2024. It governs the relationship for the next six years and the clubs are effectively subsidised by the RFU for providing the England team with its players. This was vital for the stability of the English professional game when it was still losing money.

With the introduction of billionaire owners and money rolling in that agreement no longer makes sense for the good of the English game. It should be reviewed and the money contributed by the RFU should be redirected to the grass-roots game.

The 2025-26 domestic season was unsatisfactory in several respects, largely due to the poor performance of the bottom four of a ten team league. This reached a head in April when Saracens scored 85 points against Sale, Bath scored 48 against Harlequins, Bristol racked up 53 against Gloucester, and Leicester put 62 on Newcastle Red Bulls.

A variety of suggestions have been made to improve the competitiveness of a now closed league. One is to change the current bonus point system and adopt the one used in the French league and in Super Rugby, where a team must score three tries more than the opposition, rather than just simply scoring four times, to earn a bonus point. It forces dominant teams to play for the full 80 minutes and losing sides can rob them of a bonus point if they play at full pelt throughout. 

There is also dissatisfaction with the play-off system which this season resulted in the last third of the season lacking jeopardy at the top end with the top four well clear. You wonder if a season ending at the end of the regular season would be preferable to some sides cruising until the knockout rounds.

The fact teams in the Prem can be so bad and still qualify for the Champions Cup feels strange. Why not make the Champions Cup more elite, with fewer, better teams and do the same for the Challenge Cup? Then, for the real stragglers, no European competition at all. The incentive of European rugby and the money it brings would surely tell. It is hardly an original observation that having eight out of 10 teams qualify for the “Champions” Cup is too many.  Restricting the number to six would make the bottom half of the table far more competitive during the business end of the season. The issue, of course, is that this is almost impossible, given the Champions Cup in its current state is a 24-team league, with eight sides apiece from the Prem, France and the United Rugby Championship.

True competitiveness in a league with no relegation without full blooded moves to a US franchise system is unlikely as rugby lacks the elements that help the US leagues maintain parity, the NFL, NBA and MLB drafts which ensure the best young talent can help turn the worst teams round.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Chepstow, Doncaster, Epsom, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages begin next week
• Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix in Barcelona
• Cricket, the first England/New Zealand Test at Lords continues
• Golf, the Canadian Open on the USPGA Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Libema and Stuttgart Opens

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026

Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival in ten days time here

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Exeter v Saracens 3.15pm Saturday

The final round of the regular season this weekend with one of four play-off spots unresolved and the two teams in contention, Exeter in 4^th and Saracens in 5^th play each other in what should be a barn-stormer between two teams who dislike each other, a legacy of their close competition half a decade ago and Saracens relegation for salary cap irregularities.

Exeter won the then Premiership in 2020 and finished 2^nd in 2021 before falling to the bottom half of the table in subsequent seasons with finishes of 7^th, 7^th,7^th and 9^th in the last four years

This year has seen a renaissance, borne partly of excellent recruitment (Ikitau and Hooper from Australia notably, Zambonin from Italy too) and partly a more expansive playing style whereas previously they relied on forward strength and the close-quarters game. England winger Manny Feyi-Waboso was unplayable last week as the cutting edge of that more exciting approach.

Last weekend Exeter became first team to win at Leicester since March 2025 with a 35-26 win. Now two points behind Leicester in 3^rd place and with Leicester travelling to Bath this weekend Exeter have a good shot at 3^rd place for the play-offs and avoiding Northampton who have secured top spot. This is Saracens coach Mark McCall’s last regular season game after 17 years and 15 years since Saracens’ first title. After their relegation to the Championship in 2021 they rebounded to win the Premiership in 2022 before finishing 3^rd,4^th and 6^th in the last three years.

This season saw a poor run during the mid-season but they are ending the year strongly, currently on a five-game winning run. A later win over Harlequins at home last weekend mean they go into this game three points behind Exeter in fifth place, certainly needing to go to Exeter and win, probably denying Exeter a bonus point and scoring one of their won too to make the post-season.

In the midst of a very gradual rebuild (Saracens can still field Itoje, George, Earl, calling on Farrell off the bench) Saracens have introduced young talent into the team over the last 18 months notably winger Noah Caluori and scrum-half Charlie Bracken.

I expect Exeter to win this game at home and they began the weekpriced as 1.5-point underdogs (Evens outright, 8/11 Saracens) I thought those prices were the wrong way round, and indeed we now see Exeter -1.5 and 8/11 outright.

15 points Exeter to beat Saracens -1.5 points at 10/11 generally

Stay of execution

Wales will continue to have four professional rugby teams for at least the next two seasons after a bid by Ospreys’ owners to buy Cardiff from the Welsh Rugby Union fell through in April.

Cardiff will remain under WRU ownership and Ospreys will continue with plans to play at the St Helen’s cricket ground in Swansea, after a collapse in the deal between Y11 Sport & Media and the WRU.

Ospreys are now expected to sign the 2025 Professional Rugby Agreement, a deal between the WRU and the four teams over distribution of finances, which they and Scarlets refused to do last year amid fears that Cardiff would be receiving preferential treatment at the expense of the other three teams.

If Y11 had purchased Cardiff it might have provided a convenient solution to the WRU’s problem of needing to lose a team, as has been its stated aim since last autumn. That proposal has been met with fierce opposition, but the WRU insists it will, by June, still confirm a strategy for reducing the four regional teams to three.

it is no coincidence that this statement was released only a couple of days before Cardiff and Ospreys met in the United Rugby Championship at the Arms Park, with Ospreys clearly appearing a lot more confident of their future than the WRU’s published words. “This now secures the Ospreys’ future into the 2030s,” said a statement from Swansea council.

At least now the WRU will invest the £28m it has earmarked for improvement of its pathways and academies over the next five years, which is a crucial development, given that the production line of world-class players has dried up since the disbanding of a national academy in 2015.