Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th-31st May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Beverley, Catterick, Chester, Haydock and Lingfield and over the jumps at Stratford-on-Avon.
- Cricket, the IPL final and the first England v New Zealand test match next week at Lords
- Golf, the Memorial Tournament on the USPGA Tour and the KLM Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the French Open continues
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026
Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next month here
Free Tip
IPL Qualifier 2 Friday 3pm, Chandigarh
Gujarat Titans v Rajasthan Royals
Effectively the semi-final of this year’s IPL, the Qualifier 2 game on Friday sees the loser of Qualifier 1 between 1st and 2nd in the league table (the Titans) play the winner of Eliminator between 3rd and 4th (the Royals) to play RCB in Sunday’s final.
In that former game Gujarat suffered a heavy loss to RCB as the defending Champions hit the highest team total in an IPL play-off game (254-5) to make their second final in a row. The day after Rajasthan followed up with 243-8 to continue this extremely high scoring tournament.
This match features the two top run scorers in the 2026 IPL. For Gujarat Sai Sudharsan is a technically correct top order batsman, not a big hitter as such but 29 sixes and 652 runs in 15 innings represents a third strong IPL tournament in a row opening alongside Shubman Gill with Jos Buttler in at 3. He is 9/4 favourite to be Gujarat top batsman in this match.
For the Rajasthan Royals we have a different matter entirely. 15-year-old Vaibhav Sooryavanshi has scored 680 runs and no less than 65 sixes in his 15 innings from just 280 balls. 65 sixes has broken Chris Gayle's record for the most sixes in an IPL season, 59, set in 2012. The talent is amazing, no doubt will be selected by India in shorter formats soon, and could be a staple of all their sides for 20 years plus if he continues developing at this pace.
On Wednesday he came within one shot of beating Gayle's fastest IPL record (30 balls) only to be out for 97 off 29 balls. Opening the batting he has pulverised every attack he has faced especially in powerplays, and this season has set an IPL record of 490 of his runs in overs 1-6 beating David Warner’s 467 runs from 2016.
Sooryavanshi is available in a couple of places at 3/1 in the Rajasthan top batsman market, 5/2 is reasonable and more attainable.
10 points Vaibhav Sooryavanshi Top Rajasthan Royals batsman at 3/1 SkyBet, Paddy Power, 5/2 Betfred and Ladbrokes/Coral, 12/5 William Hill, 21/10 Bet365
Hundreds of Prospects
The 100-balls-per-innings format and abolition of six-ball overs were the most controversial elements of the Hundred when it was launched by the ECB four years ago and seem likely to change in due course. With four of the new investment groups already owners of Indian Premier League franchises, and another two involving Indian businessmen, there is a clear majority in favour of switching to Twenty20, the globally recognised short format.
The Hundred’s main broadcaster, Sky Sports, expressed reservations about moving to T20 when the idea was first floated two years ago and its contract runs until 2028, but the power of the new money may be enough to bring it around. The BBC would definitely prefer the shorter format as matches are easier to fit into their evening schedules, but the corporation is not contributing much to the £35m-a-year joint deal with Sky, so will have less influence.
Intriguingly, the name of the competition is unlikely to change even if the 100-ball format is dropped, as the ECB has spent more than £100 million marketing it in a bid to bring in a new younger audience, which has been largely successful.
All of the £520m-plus windfall handed over to the 18 first-class counties should ensure their financial health for a generation. The grassroots game received a £50m investment. Having been tied into ECB commercial contracts since the Hundred began in 2021, the franchises are now free to do their own deals, and given the contacts and expertise of many of the new investors, income levels are set to soar.
The so-called “tech titans” who have bought into London Spirit, for example, have secured a lucrative new kit deal with Nike that will begin this season, while Sun TV and Reliance Industries (part of the Oval Invincibles consortium and own Indian TV monolith JioStar) are already progressing new commercial deals.
In the short term at least most of the extra revenue will be spent on increasing the salary cap to attract better players in the hope of establishing the Hundred as the second-biggest short-form tournament after the IPL. The aspiration is to treble pay within the next few years. Recruiting Indian players would be a genuine gamechanger, but the Board of Control for Cricket in India is likely to continue blocking them from overseas competitions.
The investors secured a veto on expanding the competition to 10 teams, which has been mooted by the ECB, so while new teams in the North East and South West will not be added imminently the identities of some of the existing franchises differ from this season.
New names include the Manchester Super Giants with the Oval team rebranded as MI London, named after the Mumbai Indians, whose owners Reliance Industries Limited bought a 49% stake in the team.
The optics of an injured Ben Stokes pulling out of the Oval Test last year after bowling himself into the ground in a five-match series with India being crammed into 44 days to keep August free for the Hundred were awkward for the ECB, which has already acknowledged this error. With few England players and certainly no bowlers likely to take part in the Hundred this year the Test schedule has been changed and England will play two Tests against Pakistan during the competition.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Goodwood, Haydock, Salisbury, Windsor and York and over the jumps at Bangor or Dee and Cartmel
- Premier League, Football League Play-Off Finals weekend
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final in Bilbao
- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix
- Cricket, the IPL continues and the T20 Blast starts this weekend.
- Golf, the Charles Schwab Challenge on the USPGA Tour and the Austrian Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the French Open
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026
Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next month here
Free Tip
ERCC Final Rugby
Leinster v Bordeaux-Begles in Bilbao, Saturday 2.45pm
Defending champions Bordeaux-Begles go into the ERCC final this weekend looking to cement their place as one of the great European sides from any era by repeating their victory from last season. They are 7.5-point favourites to do so.
This season they have stormed through the competition, unbeaten in four pool stage games to go into the knockout stages as top seed, then beating Leicester by 50 points, Toulouse by 15 points in the quarter-final (a match worthy of a final) and then Bath by 12 points in the semi-final. Currently only fifth in the French top 14 as European competition has become the priority, no side so far have managed to contain the Bordeaux attack.
With Lucu and Jalibert at half-back and the Bielle-Biarrey-Penaud combination out wide Bordeaux have scored 132 points (and 18 tries!) in three knockout games and before than scored 173 points (and 27 tries!) in four pool stage games
Leinster the largest and most successful of the four Irish provinces has for a generation been bolstered by the pipeline from the IRFU Academy system and the vibrant Dublin club game. They’ve won the United Rugby Championship for 7 out of the last 8 years and contain the vast majority of the Ireland national team squad. In the Semi-Final win against Toulon their side contained 14 Irish Internationals supplemented by New Zealand winger Rieko Ioane.
Domestically under the coaching team of Leo Cullen and South Africa’s Jacques Nienaber this has been a more mixed year, currently second in the URC with 12 wins and 6 losses, though they’ve won 5 of 6 games against other Irish teams.
Their European pedigree is vast, twice semi-finalists and three times runners-up in this tournament over the last five years though their last win was 2018, usually finding a French team too good for them in the final.
In this year’s ERCC they qualified for the knockouts as the third seed with an unbeaten record and had a straightforward run through to the semi-final beating Edinburgh by 18 points and Sale by 30 points before holding off a Toulon comeback to win their semi-final by 4 points.
There is a big team building difference between the two sides.19 of Bordeaux’s match day 23 from their semi-final win over Bath are French natives, less than a handful of those spent time in the Top 14 club’s youth system and were instead recruited from other teams across France. This is in stark contrast to the 23 selected for Leinster’s win over Toulon. While overseas signings Rieko Ioane and Rabah Slimani contributed significantly to the victory, Leinster includde 18 players who are graduates of the Leinster academy.
The central question here is whether Leinster can construct a defensive game-plan to keep them in the game. In that respect they can take a look at last year’s final Bordeaux v Northampton which Bordeaux won by 8 points having been restricted to 28 points and four tries in a far tighter game than many expected, as is often the case in finals.
Leinster’s defensive coach is the renowned expert Jacques Nienaber, former South Africa head coach and I am going to suggest a narrow Bordeaux win.
10 points Leinster +7.5 points at 10/11 generally.
Disconnect
England reviewed their poor Winter campaign and did a round of interviews ahead of the new season which began in April.
There is an antipathy between England and the counties under this England management under Rob Key and McCullum. The perception is that England do not trust county cricket to produce players and have often picked young players on hunches such as the good (Jacob Bethell) and the less good (Josh Hull). They have looked for attributes over averages and County form and has disenfranchised many in the English game.
At its best, the relationship between England and the counties is mutually fulfilling. County cricket can stage entertaining competitions in their own right and also be a feeder for the bigger stage.
Hopes of a healthier relationship haven’t got off to a good start with McCullum not even in England until the end of this month, so not scouting any potential players for this summer plus there has been nobody in the position of national selector. It would be helpful that any new appointment serves as a counterpoint to those who have been in position for four years, and does not simply go with the Bazball flow.
England’s selection policy has at least been clear in recent years: score quickly, bowl quickly. But in the Ashes, England’s style of play became muddied, with McCullum and Ben Stokes seemingly not on the same page. They need to come up with a clear plan for what they want and communicate it to the counties who provide the players.
It is clear that a number of spots in the England side are up for grabs. Opening batsman and spinner, for sure. Jamie Smith needs a good start to the season to shore up his spot, but he will be playing for Surrey as a specialist batsman, not keeping, which does not help the situation. And England desperately need to build fast-bowling depth, with Chris Woakes and, in all probability, Mark Wood joining the relatively recent retirements of James Anderson and Stuart Broad. Josh Tongue and Gus Atkinson are promising but injury prone.
Zak Crawley seems a statement selection. He started and ended the Ashes badly but made some decent contributions between times. That left him with a Test average of 31.2 after 64 matches, which, for all his handsome stroke play and synergy with Ben Duckett, is not enough. If he wants to play for England this summer, he needs runs for Division-Two Kent. The trouble is, his first-class average for them is just 32.8. If he produces his usual boom-or-bust Championship fare and England still pick him, it will be a clear indication that little is going to change.
Crawley is an example of a centrally-contracted player who gets away with not turning out that often in the Championship. In September last year he did not play in the Championship, which meant he had played no competitive cricket between September 6 (a T20) and the Ashes on November 21. Stokes’s last 18 first-class matches have all been Tests, although some of that is down to injury. He needs county cricket to help him find long-lost rhythm with the bat.
Test and Championship cricket are different, which is partly why the two camps have moved apart. Those making the step up need to be able to take wickets on flatter pitches, and play short bowling better.
The competitive tension and the breadth of quality players means the Championship remains a decent proving ground.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk and over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee and Uttoxeter.
- Premier League, the FA Cup Final
- Cricket, the IPL continues, and the T20 Blast starts next Friday
- Golf, the Byron Nelson Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Soudal Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Hamburg and Geneva Opens
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026
Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next month here
Free Tip
IPL: Punjab Kings v RCB 11am Sunday Dharamsala
As we enter the last week of group stage games in the 2026 IPL Sunday begins with a repeat of last year’s final, this time played in the far north and the foothills of the Himalayas at Dharamsala.
As I write these are two sides in the top four, RCB 1st (a Kohli century led them to victory on Wednesday to take them to the top again) and Kings 4th after five defeats in a row ( they will fall out of the top four if Chennai Super Kings beat Lucknow Super Giants on Friday), both with plenty to play for in large part due to the structure of the play-offs:
1st in the league table play 2nd with the winner going straight through to the final.
Then 3rd plays 4th, the winner playing the loser of the 1st/2nd game.
Therefore we can see the 1st/2nd place winner plays a game less in the play-offs.
By Indian standards, Dharamsala can be a spicy pitch with mixed weather and an emphasis on player technique. Punjab Kings were 140-7 against good medium pace bowling that nibbled around against Mumbai on Thursday to give an indication of this.
For the Punjab Kings Arya and Prabhsimran open, with Iyer and Australian Connolly batting alternating between number 3 and 4.
Arja returned to form on Monday with a 24-ball 50 including six sixes after a mixed tournament up until that point. He now has 366 runs in 11 innings at a huge 216 strike rate off just 168 balls including a massive 32 sixes. A boom-bust option for player betting markets.
Fellow opener Prabhsimran (549 IPL runs last year) top scored in Thursday’s match with 57 and now has 439 in 11 innings at a strike rate of 170.
Iyer, with 50 Indian T20I appearances has 396 runs in his 11 innings at a strike rate of 164.
Connolly (22-year-old left hander from Perth, who made his international debut in all three formats by early 2025) meanwhile is the Kings’ top scorer so far this season with 436 runs at a strike rate of 162. His 11 innings this season include these scores: 72*, 87, 107, 30,36, and 38 with three team top scorer scores.
Odds in the Punjab Kings top scorer market are:
Iyer 3/1
Prabhsimran 3/1
Arya 100/30
Connolly 9/2
This is obviously a competitive heat, but Connolly at 4/1+ looks interesting value as team top scorer as fourth favourite at a venue where the new ball may see him in relatively early.
10 points Cooper Connolly top Punjab Kings run scorer at 9/2 SkyBet, Paddy Power, 4/1 BetVictor, 7/2 Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral
Embrace the chaos
The 2026 Six Nations set a tournament high for tries (111 at an average of 7.4 per game). France scored 33 or more points in each of their five fixtures. The previous best was 25, by England’s class of 2003 and by France last year.
There were 12 instances of a team scoring 30 or more points in a match, helped by France’s 50-40 loss to Scotland and their 48-46 victory over England the following weekend. For context, there were only two instances of a team scoring 30 points in the 2011 Six Nations.
France retained the title despite conceding 19 tries more than anyone else except sixth-placed Wales (26). In 2011England conceded just five tries on their way to the Championship.
Various factors combined to see this explosion of tries and scoring. Five of the six teams endured historically poor tournaments from a defensive standpoint. In terms of points conceded, England’s campaign was their worst of all 27 Six Nations competitions. France’s was their 26th, Wales’s their 25th, Ireland’s their 24th and Scotland’s their 22nd.
The 2024-5 law change with a crackdown on escort runners when defending high kicks has yielded more vigorous aerial contests, with chasers granted “access” to the defensive catcher. This has made things more “chaotic” and “transition-based”, therefore tipping the balance in favour of the attack rather than the structure defences prefer.
There were only 33 penalties kicked at goal in 2026, down from 53 in 2025 and 63 in 2024. Tries from quick taps were up to 14 from only four in last year’s Six Nations and the lineout remains a fruitful platform, with 53 of the 111 tries in 2026 beginning from that set piece. Officials have also become stricter on how mauls are set up, penalising obstruction when they see it, but sides can launch a range of lineout plays including dummy drives.
Also we are in an era of fast-developing individual skills and better and better player conditioning that helps when games open up in the second half. French winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey is a generational player and is a reason for the try spike in itself. He converts chances others cannot. Six of his record nine tries in this year’s Six Nations, including three of the four he scored against England featured a kick on the scoring phase.
Add to him the likes of Finn Russell, Jalibert and others and we have a perfect storm of individual skills, law changes and attacking approaches currently being ahead of defensive patterns that has led to hugely attractive and high-scoring rugby.
In due course of course defense coaches will catch up, and especially in Winter Northern Hemisphere weather there will still be tight and tense matches characterised by tough tackling and turnovers, but it is difficult to see the attacking ethos and chaotic styles of play disappearing from the game completely. That should be here to stay.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock, Leicester, Lingfield and Nottingham and over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick.
- Premier League, fixtures include Liverpool v Chelsea
- Cricket, the IPL continues
- Golf, the USPGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club
- Tennis, ATP Italian Open continues
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026
Available now, for Neil’s tips for every race of the five-day festival next month here
Free Tip
IPL: RCB v Mumbai Indians Sunday 3pm
Sunday’s second IPL match sees the Mumbai Indians (9th of 10 teams in the current league table with three wins and seven losses so far) visit third-placed RCB, defending IPL Champions (six wins and four losses)
Through 50 IPL matches in 2026 so far there have been 13 scores of 220 or more, six of those above 240. Four of those 13 scores have been compiled against an underperforming Mumbai bowling attack.
For a variety of reasons (true pitches, small boundaries, bat technology, player conditioning for range hitting, hitting technique) T20 scoring has advanced, leading the way for the T20 global game.
As you can see from the table above this has been particularly evident in the Powerplay overs (1-6 at the start of the innings) where run rates have exploded in recent times, surpassing 10 runs per over on average for the first time in this season’s IPL.
Mumbai have allowed 745 runs in 10 bowling powerplays at 12.4 runs per powerplay, the worst in the competition this season.
RCB began the tournament with Phil Salt opening alongside Virat Kohli ahead of Paddikal and Patidar at 3 and 4 with Tim David the finisher. Salt has missed the last four games with a finger injury, and remains out, and Jacob Bethell has come in to open alongside Kohli.
Kohli/Bethell/Paddikal/Patidar is a high variance batting line-up, perfectly capable of hitting 250-3 whilst throwing in the odd 155 all out along the way.
Kohli has (unsurprisingly) been the star performer at the top of the order with 379 runs in 10 innings (231 balls) at an average of 47 at a 165 strike-rate and three 50s.
Paddikal has 316 runs in 9 innings off 175 balls at an average of 40, strike rate of 180.
Patidar 318 runs in 9 innings off just 159 balls at an average of 40 and a huge strike rate of 200.
Bethell has started his belated IPL campaign slowly with scores of 4,5,14 and 20 in his four innings so far.
For Mumbai’s bowling Jasprit Bumrah only has 3 wickets in ten games, Santner is out injured and Trent Boult 2 wickets in 5 games.
With those three marquee players struggling spinner Ghazanfar has led the way with 12 wickets at 23 in 8 matches, frequently bowling in the powerplay. Medium pacers Ashwani Kumar and Thakur have 12 wickets in 8 combined games whilst latterly South African fast-medium bowler Corbin Bosch has played 2 matches.
With the strength of this four matching-up against Mumbai’s powerplay bowling I looked for an opportunity in the RCB Top batsman market.
Kohli 2/1
Patidar 3/1
Paddikal 4/1
Bethell 11/2
Iyer 11/2
David 7/1
As to be expected Kohli is favourite and little value. Batting 3 and 4, Paddikal and Patidar are both alternatives, especially with Bethell opening in poor form and one/both likely to be batting during the powerplay.
With similar records, the better value appears to be Paddikal at 4/1 batting above Patidar.
10 points Devdutt Paddikal Top RCB run scorer at 9/2 Bet365, PaddyPower, 4/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, StarSports, 19/5 William Hill.
Thousands for Hundreds
The Hundred's inaugural player auction has taken place and the squads for the eight teams are now finalised.
For the first five editions of the competition, players were allocated to teams via a draft system with a set of salary tiers. Following substantial private investment in The Hundred, players not already signed or retained now have their team and pay set by an auction.
Squads will be made up of between 16 to 18 players, while there is a salary cap limit along with a salary collar, a minimum amount teams must spend.
The salary pot in the men's competition for 2026 has risen by 45% to £2.05m per side, and the fund for women's teams has increased by 100% to £880,000.
The auction created some of the highest paid sportswomen in the UK, with all-rounder Danielle Gibson, pace bowler Issy Wong and 18-year-old spinner Tilly Corteen-Coleman received deals in excess of £100,000.
In the men's auction, 21-year-old James Coles earned £390,000, while batter Jordan Cox claimed £300,000. There were also big deals for Joe Root and Adil Rashid.
The Hundred begins on July 21st running until August 16th. The teams will play a total of 64 matches in the group stage (32 men's, 32 women's). All matches will be held on the same day at the same grounds.
Each team will play four matches at home and four away, including one match against every other side in the competition and a bonus match against their nearest regional rivals. After the league stage, the top three teams will progress to the knockout stage to decide the champions. The second- and third-place teams will face each other in the eliminator at The Oval in London. The winner of the eliminator then met the league-topping team in the final at Lord's.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Newmarket, Thirsk and Ripon, over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
- FA Cup, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
- Cricket, the IPL Continues
- Formula One, the Miami Grand Prix
- Golf, the Myrtle Beach Classic on the USPGA Tour and the Catalunya Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Italian Open
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2026
Now available for all five days of Royal Ascot in June for £199 see Here
European Rugby Champions Cup Rugby Semi-Final
Leinster v Toulon Saturday 3pm Dublin
Leinster have a familiar advantage in the late stages of the ERCC, as the higher seed in this game (3 v 7) the country of the higher seed hosts the semi-final. In Ireland this necessarily means in Dublin and a home tie for Leinster given there no other suitable venues elsewhere in Ireland.
As Leinster generally win their pool with a high seed following for the knock-out stages this will be a fifth successive home semi-final, however they lost to Northampton at this venue in last year’s semi-final.
Leinster the largest and most successful of the four Irish provinces has for a generation been bolstered by the pipeline from the IRFU Academy system and the vibrant Dublin club game. They’ve won the United Rugby Championship for 7 out of the last 8 years and contain the vast majority of the Ireland national team squad. In the Quarter-Final win against Sale their side contained 13 Irish Internationals supplemented by New Zealand winger Rieko Ioane.
Domestically under the coaching team of Leo Cullen and South Africa’s Jacques Nienaber this has been a more mixed year, currently fourth in the URC with 10 wins and 6 losses, though they’ve won 5 of 6 games against other Irish teams though because of the factors mentioned above their European pedigree is vast, twice semi-finalists and three times runners-up in this tournament over the last five years.
Toulon have struggled in the domestic top 14 this season, currently 8th with 11 wins and 10 losses in an inconsistent season but have proven to be a big game team with big game players in European competition.
Toulon beat the URC’s top two teams in successive weeks in the early ERCC knockout stages as after clinching a narrow 28-27 win over the Stormers in their round-of-16 clash, they also edged out Glasgow Warriors 22-19 in the Quarter-Finals, a result based on collective defensive resolve and the individual brilliance of their backline.
As well as French Internationals Ollivon, Serin, Jaminet and Drean their overseas recruitment with a big budget allowing big salaries includes star Italian centre Brex, Scotland’s scrum-half White and the excellent England second row and now Toulon captain David Ribbans.
Understandably enough at home with their European record Leinster are favourites to make another final, 2/9 outright and -9.5 points on the handicap. Toulon are 100/30. I would expect Leinster to win, meaning we’ll fall just short of the Toulon ante-post ERCC bet this column recommended in December at 20/1 each way but I like them to cover in a close game given their big game temperament and defensive skills.
11 points Toulon +9.5 points at 10/11 generally
Pivot
The few days before the start of each new NFL league year in mid-March is a 32-team free-for-all of free agency tampering where player deals are done ahead of official confirmation when the new year starts.
Every NFL signing and trade is subject to a physical. Nothing's official until players pass those physicals. Obviously, each team's comfort with the wear and tear it sees on football players depends on a variety of factors. That came to the fore this year with the Baltimore Ravens decision to trade two first round draft picks for the Raiders Maxx Crosby, who missed part of last season with an injury, a very important, franchise-altering decision essentially committing to paying their new star edge rusher nearly $94m over the next three seasons. Crosby was still recovering from the meniscus surgery he underwent at the end of the 2025 season given the typical timeframe.
After he failed a Ravens physical, Baltimore backed out of the deal. The Ravens knew Crosby was recovering from meniscus surgery. The Raiders are said believe that the Ravens had buyers remorse and made a meal out of whatever they found and using it as a pretense to change their mind.
Undoing the trade complicates the short term and the long term for the Ravens organisationally. Baltimore players were excited about playing with Crosby. Fans were thrilled to add a superstar. They're all disappointed now. Even if they don't believe that the Ravens just changed their mind, teams are going to be more hesitant to talk trades with Baltimore given the perception that it might be more finicky about physicals and prone to reversing deals than other organisations.
Ultimately, nobody outside of Baltimore's building can ever really know for sure whether the Ravens were strictly reacting to Crosby's physical, simply changed their mind or some combination of the two. The next day they pivoted to signing free agency pass rusher Trey Hendrickson to a bigger deal than Crosby’s.
Having signed Hendrickson there are plenty of sceptics who believe that the Ravens finessed the Raiders including the vast majority of people in the Raiders facility.
With Crosby's rights reverting back to the Raiders and the Ravens recouping their two first-round picks, both teams can act as if this trade never happened. Having already traded Crosby once, though, the Raiders should still be incentivised to get a deal done as quickly as possible. The Raiders needed the picks more than they needed Crosby, given how far they are from contending. Crosby was going to finally get to play for a winner and a perennial contender. This could have been a win-win trade. It could still be one with a different team.
Let's consider a few scenarios for how that could play out.
1. Another team trades two first-round picks to the Raiders for Crosby. Obviously, the best-case scenario for the Raiders right now would be getting a similar haul from another team, one that doesn't share the same concerns with the Ravens about Crosby's medical results. Doing so would both get the Raiders the draft capital they want and implicitly suggest that Las Vegas was right to suggest that the Ravens backed out of the trade for reasons unrelated to the physical.
2. Another team trades two first-round picks to the Raiders for Crosby sometime in the months to come. This is unlikely, but it's possible that Crosby's meniscus looks better closer to the draft or even afterwards leading a team to feel more comfortable trading two first-round picks. If another team waits until after the draft, it could acquire Crosby in 2026 and hold on to its first-round pick this year while sending its 2027 and 2028 first-rounders to the Raiders, which would be a less valuable and more uncertain offer for Vegas.
3. Another team trades something that isn't a 2027 first-round pick to the Raiders to acquire Crosby. This is the most likely scenario It's going to be very difficult for Las Vegas to land a similarly sized offer to the one it had from Baltimore.
4. Another team acquires Crosby without needing to send a first-round pick. If Crosby's medical reports are really as concerning as the Ravens' pivot suggests, there might not be a first-round pick in play.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase
