The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th July

*Betting Emporium results updated, see below*

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Haydock, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Cartmel and Market Rasen.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Final.
• Cricket, the England-India ODI series continues at Lords on Sunday.
• Rugby Union, the new Nations Championship continues including Argentina v England and New Zealand v Ireland.
• Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix
• Golf, the 3m Open at TPC Twin Cities on the USPGA Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Generali and Estoril Opens.

Glorious Goodwood

After a great Royal Ascot week next up for us is Goodwood from 28th July. Get all the write ups and bets for the 5 day festival for £150 here 

Free Tip

Nations Championship Rugby: New Zealand v Ireland Saturday 8.10am Auckland

The third and final weekend of the summer Nations Championship games before the competition continues in the Autumn in Europe.

This game in Auckland this weekend sees two of the three unbeaten teams in the tournament after two weeks meet, the other being South Africa who have beaten England and Scotland to top the Southern Hemisphere pool. Ireland are top of the Northern Hemisphere pool.

New Zealand have beaten France 34-32 and last weekend Italy 47-17 scoring a combined 12 tries. A year out from the 2027 World Cup in Australia New Zealand changed the coaching team in March with Scott Robertson dismissed mid World Cup cycle and replaced by David Rennie.

Through the first two games under Rennie New Zealand are being asked to play at a different pace under the new regime and that it was something that the players have needed to adjust to, plus playing in areas of the field they haven’t been asked to do for 4-5 years. There are new combinations too, plus a new fly-half so perhaps it’s understandable to see some mixed performances whilst everything beds in. Of course, there is tremendous natural talent in the line-up if not quite the depth of resources from previous teams. For example, against Italy winger/fly-half Will Jordan scored three tries to become New Zealand's all-time leading try-scorer with 50 in 56 matches.

Ireland beat Australia 33-31 to start their tournament before beating Japan 36-20 to record their second bonus point win. Against Japan, probably with an eye on the New Zealand game, Ireland fielded a much-changed side with 11 changes and four debutants.

Back to full strength here they’ll be a determined challenge for the All Blacks albeit this is at THE toughest New Zealand venue for visiting sides. New Zealand are unbeaten in 52 games at Auckland since 1994 including most recently beating World Champions and top ranked side South Africa 24-17 last year.

So far, this column has backed two underdogs getting a score-plus in this new tournament and lost twice (England + and Australia +) This weekend Ireland are +10.5 points in the Auckland game

Ireland +10.5 points at 10/11 generally

Pointless

The 127 points shared between Northampton Saints and Bristol Bears in mid-May set a new record aggregate for the Prem. On their way to a 94-33 loss in the 54^th minute Bristol scored a fourth try and gained a consolation bonus point. Northampton had already scored 12 tries themselves. What made the scoreline even more remarkable was that at the time Bristol were still chasing fourth place in the league. This wasn’t a match between a top side and a bottom side with absolutely nothing to play for in a league with no relegation.

Bonus points were introduced before the 2000-01 season. Play-Offs were introduced at the same time. The bonus-point system in England’s top tier is unchanged since: one point for scoring four tries, whether you win or lose, and one for a losing team that finishes within seven points of their opponents. As a mark of how much rarer they were in that maiden season, Bath garnered the most four-try bonus points during the regular schedule. They picked up nine across 22 matches.

Fast forward to 2025-26 and that heavy Northampton match represented Bristol’s ninth four-try bonus point this term, in their 16th league fixture. Five other sides (Northampton, Bath, Leicester Tigers, Exeter Chiefs and Saracens) were in double figures after round 15.

A variety of factors have sent us into this era of dizzying scorelines: better pitches, increased athleticism, intuitive coaching, sharper skills, law tweaks to encourage more broken-field situations amongst them. Defences do seem particularly flimsy in the Prem. Only one club last season, Exeter, were conceding fewer than 20 points per match on average.

There is a different system that incentivises defences. In 2014, the French Top 14 altered the rules so teams picked up a bonus point for scoring three more tries than their opponents. Super Rugby moved to the “three ahead” rule in 2016. The Prem and the United Rugby Championship (URC) have stayed put, though there does appear to be greater emphasis on defence in the latter competition. A “three ahead” system maintains intrigue during matches, because sides who have piled up a sizeable advantage cannot switch off, and recognises truly dominant performances.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th July

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
• Football, the World Cup Quarter Finals.
• Cricket, the England-India T20 series continues at Southampton on Saturday.
• Rugby Union, the new Nations Championship continues including Australia v France and South Africa v Scotland
• Golf, the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale next week.
• Tennis, Wimbledon finals this weekend

Free Tip

Nations Championship Rugby: Australia v France 8.40am Saturday Brisbane

Last weekend saw the “away” Northern Hemisphere teams win 3 of the six inaugural Nations Championship matches (Wales, Scotland and Ireland). This weekend sees the second round of three summer games, with the stand-out being in Brisbane where two losing sides from last weekend Australia and France meet on Saturday morning UK time.

Australia were beating Ireland with three minutes to go in Round One, went 31-33 behind and still had a kick to win the game (they missed) in a game that could have gone either way.  France lost 34-32 to New Zealand with virtually a “B” team missing 12 Toulouse and Montpellier players, the game coming just a week after the Top 14 final. France secured two losing bonus points from a narrow loss and scoring four tries. However, New Zealand scoring five tries continued a recent trend in French games having conceded 19 tries in the Six Nations, second-most in the tournament despite running out winners.

Nine players have been called up to the French squad for the second round including six from Toulouse. Recent starters Bielle-Biarrey, Ollivon, Ramos, Alldritt, Gros, Flament, Cros and Aldegheri are still absent, and Panaud was injured last week too.

Australia are a year out from a hosting a World Cup and at the end of their summer go through a coaching change from Joe Schmidt to Les Kiss and in terms of results there is much to improve.

Last year they lost to the British Lions 2-1, winning the third game by ten points after 8- and 3-point losses.

The 2025 Rugby Championship began with a famous win in South Africa but was one of only two wins from six games, the other against Argentina.

In the Autumn European Tour they lost to England by 18 points, Italy by 7, Ireland by 27 and France by 15 points.

Although their scrum is a much-improved unit they certainly missed the heft of huge second row Will Skelton last weekend but the team has a lot of big ball carriers, and probably the best ball-handling pack around and a very good back row at the breakdown.

What they are too used to yet is turning close games into wins!

The team this week has fly-half Gordon and back-row Hooper absent with injury.

This is expected to be a high-scoring game, the points over/under is 59.5 and Australia are priced up +8.5-points at home a line that moved out a point on confirmation fo Gordon's absence and a debutant fly-half Declan Meredith in his place, but, a line which they can cover even if they don’t win.

Australia +8.5-points at 10/11 generally.

Self-Indulgence

England have now lost seven of their nine most recent Tests, and suffered their first home series defeat (in a Test series of three matches or more) since 2012 against New Zealand recently. They are seventh in the World Test Championship table (Only West Indies and Pakistan sit below England) and have not won a Test series (of more than one match) since 2024. Despite the talk of Bazball saving the format, England have been a shambles recently.

Despite all the evidence that their batting methods don't work, most recently throughout the Winter Ashes and now against New Zealand, specifically most recently in the fourth innings at Nottingham with the away side two bowlers down, they continued with their ultra-attacking approach added to by the self-indulgent and emotional decision for Stokes to open the batting and slog in the fourth innings of the third Test at Trent Bridge, to Harry Brook’s ridiculous 9-ball 21 at the end of which the New Zealand’s players were heard on the stump mics exclaiming “What IS he doing?” it is obvious to everyone by now that this approach doesn't work against solid professional sides.

A change of management has to be made. Key is not an administrator and McCullum hasn’t installed any discipline either in approach or off-the-field. During the series just finished New Zealand lost Kane Williamson to (an under-stated) retirement but scored five hundreds to England’s one, had greater depth in bowling combined with a top-class keeper and outplayed England in all departments.

Simply replacing Stokes as captain is a difficult job with each candidate coming with baggage. Stokes anointed Harry Brook but the combination of him with Brendon McCullum does not suggest a serious professional outfit. Joe Root would be nothing more than a stop-gap solution. It is an even bigger head-scratcher to think of a Stokes replacement as a bowling all-rounder who can balance a team.

There are ten Tests until next Summer’s Ashes. It could be we see several captains, a big turnover of players, a new director of cricket, a new coaching team and bad results during yet another rebuild. Yet again we face the prospect of being big underdogs for that Ashes with such an uncertain period ahead.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page was updated on 1^st January 2026. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,244.70 All bets have an ROI +2.41%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,244.70 a 1631% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th July

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup last sixteen matches.
• Cricket, the England-India T20 series continues.
• Rugby Union, the new Nations Championship begins including South Africa-England in Johannesburg and New Zealand-France in Christchurch.
• Formula One, the British Grand Prix
• Golf, the Scottish Open and the ISCO Championships.
• Tennis, Wimbledon continues.

Glorious Goodwood

After a great Royal Ascot week next up for us is Goodwood in July. Get all the write ups and bets for the 5 day festival for £150 here 

Free Tip

Nations Championship Rugby South Africa v England 4.40pm Saturday Johannesburg

The first weekend of the new Nations Championship. A reminder, it is a bi-annual international competition featuring the twelve top ranked teams. The teams are divided into two pools of six southern and northern hemisphere teams, and play a full round-robin of matches with the teams in the opposing pool across id-year and end-of-year international windows, with the top teams in each pool advancing to a Nations Championship final in London.

England have the toughest start, South Africa away this weekend in Johannesburg then return for an 'away' fixture against Fiji at Everton's Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool before travelling to Argentina in Round 3.

England have much to prove after a Six Nations in which they finished fifth with just one win from five games. In a remarkable interview before leaving for South Africa (not sure it was meant to be remarkable, but it revealed much) interim England captain Jamie George admitted that England “hadn’t really focused too much on phase attack” during the lead-up to the Six Nations. The scope for preparation was sparse because of the crowded domestic and European schedule. England’s strategic choices hurt them when Scotland and Ireland built significant leads because, as George put it, “we basically didn’t have a plan B”.

This is important in international rugby in 2026 as rugby has moved far more towards a multi-phase attacking game with off-loads, recycling the ball and  this has seen much higher scoring matches, a trend that is likely to continue until defences catch up with the new meta and a degree of stability is restored to the attack/defence balance.

The average number of tries in matches among the ten Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams has risen from 5.2 in 2016 to 7.4 this year. This year’s Six Nations featured two matches in which sides lost despite scoring 40 points. One of these was England in the final game of the tournament in Paris which came, we now learn, after England’s attack coach Lee Blackett was granted “more time and more licence” to implement multi-phase strategies before the Italy and France games. 

This hopefully is encouraging for the year to come before the 2027 World Cup. There are some issues though. The first three matches of this Championship come at the end of a long Northern Hemisphere season, which itself followed a Lions Tour. That gruelling schedule accounts for the absence of captain Maro Itoje this summer.

England flew across last week and have a week to acclimatise to altitude (5,750 feet above sea level) in limited preparation time as the Prem play-offs have only just concluded.

South Africa is well clear at the top of the World rankings (England a distant sixth) and have huge player depth that understandably makes them strong favourites for this tournament and the upcoming World Cup.

Notwithstanding the absence of outstanding fly half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu for the coming weeks, the Springboks have become a more incisive attacking outfit under the attack coach Tony Brown. They scored over 40 points per Test match in 2025. They have selected what looks to be their strongest available team. Admittedly it has many players on the wrong side of 30 years old but the team looks hugely strong. I expect they’ll rotate for subsequent matches but for now the a) respect for England and b) grudge against England has seen them go all-out here and despite a few injury absences its an incredible strong 23..

South Africa may see some early season clunkiness but the way the game is currently being played suggests a shoot-out is far more likely. England continue to talk about “playing big” but the challenges are enormous here, especially with the relative strength of the two benches for the second half. They will try to attack fly-half Libbok who is prone to mistakes. Fail to pressure him and it could be a long day.

Outright odds for the Nations Championship are as follows:

South Africa 2/1

France 3/1

New Zealand 4/1

England 11/2

Ireland 13/2

Australia 14/1

For this opening game South Africa are 14.5-point favourites on the handicap spread.  That’s a big spread to cover assuming England can at least hold their own up front and England are a side who scored 46-points in Paris last time out.

I worry about the last Quarter of the game at altitude for England but getting more than two converted tries as a start I think we can take a view on England’s attack putting up enough points to make covering a probability.

10 points England +14.5-points at 10/11 generally

A level playing field?

It is now six seasons since an English PREM team won the European Champions Cup. Bath made the semi-finals this year but clearly were behind the top three sides in Europe, Bordeaux Begles, Leinster and Toulouse, defeated at Bordeuax in a brilliant Quarter-Final.

Six years ago Exeter supplemented the success of Saracens to make it four Premiership winners in five years; a bygone era. Even allowing for the cyclical nature of sport such English dominance feels a long way away.

The progression of Bordeaux and Leinster to this year’s final meant that a series of six Champions Cup finals has been contested by only five teams: those two, plus Toulouse, La Rochelle and, courtesy of stunning Dublin upset last year, Northampton Saints.

English teams have an essential problem in the modern era that Bath have shown, they are spending up to the PREM salary cap and yet couldn’t reach the final. Might it require the present level of the salary cap to be raised in the league’s franchised future?

Factoring in the wages of their marquee player, Finn Russell, Bath spend  £2m beyond the basic ceiling of £6.4m. Figures released recently by Ligue National de Rugby outlined that seven Top 14 teams ( Toulouse, Bordeaux, Toulon, Montpellier, Stade Français, Clermont Auvergne and La Rochelle) spent more than £8.5m to their playing budget alone in the 2024-25 season. 

French clubs can spend €10.7m. Even accounting for a Top 14 calendar comprising 26 regular-season fixtures rather than 18 in the Prem, that excess can be put to good use. Bath still have to compromise in squad composition.

A salary cap makes it more difficult to keep a squad together and build cohesion from season to season. Any “Super Bowl window” for success is smaller because rosters must be trimmed and reset more regularly. Du Toit and Barbeary left Bath this summer, for instance. Furbank is leaving Northampton for Harlequins. The Prem salary cap has good intentions. It helps to prevent clubs from overreaching, saving themselves from themselves, and increases the competitiveness of the league by redistributing talent. But it is not condusive to landing the Champions Cup.

An English team would have to be diligent with youth production, recruitment and retention, as well as being lucky and extremely accurate on the pitch, to prevail in the Champions Cup. A skinnier salary cap is a significant hindrance. Winning on the road in pool matches to earn a home knockout run seems vital. Which English team is capable of all that when fighting on two fronts?

The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Chester, Lingfield, Windsor and York and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
• Football, the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup Group stages.
• Cricket, the England-India T20 series begins next week.
• Rugby Union, the new Nations Championship begins next weekend
• Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
• Golf, the John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the BMW International on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, Wimbledon begins on Monday

Glorious Goodwood

After a great Royal Ascot week next up for us is Goodwood in July. Get all the write ups and bets for the 5 day festival for £150 here 

Free Tip

Austrian Grand Prix, Sunday 2pm

As we head into the bulk of the European Grand Prix summer season, this weekend sees the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg, the eighth race of the season.

Antonelli leads the drivers’ Championship by 41 points, Mercedes leads the Constructors Championship by 72 points.

Mercedes won the first six races of the season under the new regulations before Hamilton won his first race for Ferrari in Barcelona last time out having finished second in the previous two races. Of those six wins Russell won the first race of the season before Antonelli won the next five, Russell suffering both bad luck and engine failures and being outdriven by his team-mate until Antonelli suffered an engine failure of his own in Spain.

Ferrari brought no less than 8 upgrades for Spain, significantly improving the aerodynamics on what has been the best car this season in slower corners. The Ferrari lacks some engine power (though has now been permitted two engine upgrade packages for this season and next, giving them, a chance to catch-up with Mercedes) but has strong downforce/drag and its smaller turbo ensures strong starts, all helping to keep them competitive.

Barcelona was not an especially power-sensitive track but the next three races, Austria, Britain and Belgium are all on power-heavy tracks and its unlikely Ferrari will beat Mercedes at these venues.

Austria for example is the shortest track on the schedule but characterised by two particularly long straights which accentuates the effect of engine power yet having been able to back the Ferraris at 10/1 plus for race wins earlier in the season we are now asked to take Hamilton 4/1 LeClerc 6/1 instead. The Ferrari package is upgraded for sure but with an engine disadvantage it shouldn’t matter.

Meanwhile in the fifth and sixth races of the season Antonelli was 5/6 for race wins, now we can get up to 2/1 Antonelli and 3/1 Russell. This is becoming value for the tracks we are about to see races on.

These are the best outright odds for Austria

Antonelli 7/4

Russell 3/1

Hamilton 4/1

LeClerc 13/2

Verstappen 10/1

Norris 16/1

Bar 20/1

It’s tempting to recommend Russell at a point larger than Antonelli, except that he himself says the car doesn’t suit his driving style much, and just before Antonelli’s engine failure late on in Barcelona he had been overtaken on track by his teammate.

15 points Kimi Antonelli to win the Austrian Grand Prix at 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral,  William Hill and BetVictor

Opaque

The inaugural Nations Championship begins next weekend, with the 12 top ranked sides playing in two pools (Northern and Southern Hemisphere) where teams from each pool plays all the teams in the opposite pool once, three times at home, three away over two consecutive International windows. The winners of the North and South pools will contest the final

In May the conclusion of the RFU’s two-month review into England’s worst Six Nations campaign was announced. Steve Borthwick’s position as head coach, under threat after England lost four championship games for the first time since 1976, was confirmed. 

After England’s defeat by Italy, the RFU offered qualified support until the end of the summer; effectively giving Borthwick four games to prove he could lift England out of their Six Nations malaise. The RFU has now chosen not to wait for the evidence of challenging summer Tests against South Africa, Fiji and Argentina.  There had been talk of the RFU modernising its structure by installing a director of rugby or of coaching changes to give Borthwick more experience in his management team. None of that has happened. 

Sir Clive Woodward has been calling for the appointment of a director of rugby for at least 15 years a figure with expertise who can work with the head coach and provide real time reviews and the current structure where the Head coach reports to a Chief Executive who outsources rugby decisions to consultants seems sub-optimal.

With Borthwick in place through until the 2027 World Cup there are unanswered questions that presumably the review dealt with, but which we remain unaware of, such as leadership issues and selection errors during the Six Nations and probably more importantly, what about the structural issues within the English game that have led to long-term underperformance; a losing record in four of the past six championships? 

Throughout the Six Nations Borthwick talkedy about his team “playing big”, playing fast, moving the ball and being dynamic; bringing their club form to the Test stage but that was rarely how England are set up. It would appear to have been evident through the process that England players do not want to be weighed down by the shackles of a proscriptive game plan. They want to be empowered to play what they see, as they did against France in the last game of the Championship when all pressure was off. 

Now comes the Nations Championship. We’ll see if the bold approach persists in the toughest possible first round game.

England’s Nations Championship fixtures

Round 1 July 4: South Africa v England, Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Round 2 July 11: Fiji v England, Hill Dickinson Stadium
Round 3 July 18: Argentina v England, Santiago del Estero
Round 4 November 8: England v Australia, Twickenham
Round 5 November 14: England v Japan, Twickenham
Round 6 November 21: England v New Zealand, Twickenham
Finals weekend November 27-29: TBC, Twickenham

The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr, Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket and Redcar.
• Football, the 2026 World Cup Group stages continue
• Cricket, the third England New Zealand Test at Trent Bridge next Wednesday
• Rugby Union, the Gallagher PREM Grand Final at Twickenham
• Golf, the Travelers Championship on the USPGA and the Italian Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Eastbourne and Wimbledon qualifying.

Free Tip

Gallagher Prem final Northampton v Exeter, Saturday 3pm Twickenham

Last weekend the Exeter Chiefs became the first team to finish third in the regular season league table and make the play-off final since 2010.

They did so by coming back from 26-10 down at half time to last season’s Champions Bath to win 27-26, defending for an incredible 43 phases on their line at the end of the game (Bath didn’t attempt a drop goal, curious!)

This was the first Prem play-off win by an away team in five years. Exeter still haven’t lost a semi-final and they went off +9.5 points, winning by a point despite missing two kickable conversions for another four points.

Bath away was clearly a tough challenge, now comes the best team of the current season the Northampton Saints, scores of 38 points a game in the regular season and 14-point winners over Leicester in their semi-final scoring 45 points and scoring six tries. Concidentally, this is a final between eighth and ninth in last year’s league.

Nobody in the European leagues scores tries like Northampton. With one game to go they are in pole position to finish ahead of all others in the try scoring ranks this season:

Northampton, played 24, 144 tries, average 5.76 a game

Toulouse played 32, 169 tries, average 5.28

Bordeaux played 34, 163 tries, average 4.8

Leinster played 28, 120 tries, average 4.28

Fortunately for Exeter, potentially, Northampton have a weakness. Just looking at these two teams, Northampton have conceded 536 points in 18 Prem matches, Exeter just 367. Particularly in the second half of the season Exeter have developed the firepower out wide and   at full strength at front the platform to get quick ball for them. The excellent overseas recruitment of Hooper and Ikitau from Australis, in particular, have elevated the side into a real contender.

Northampton clearly should be favourites and indeed are -6.5, a line that soon moved to -7.5 points and went back again midweek. This line provides an opportunity to go for the column hat-trick on Exeter in what could and should be a high scoring match.

10 points Exeter Chiefs +7.5 points at 10/11 generally

Destinations

The British & Irish Lions have taken a step towards changing their established touring schedule by exploring new destinations including France, the Americas and Japan.

Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have hosted on a quadrennial rotation since 1989 but the Lions are assessing the viability of altering that pattern and bringing other locations into the mix. The prospect of a full tour to France was raised officially 18 months ago.

However any move to visit the southern hemisphere giants once every 16, not 12, years would be met with a negative reaction in Australia, South Africa and New Zealand.

It is likely that those Sanzaar unions, particularly New Zealand and South Africa, would threaten to pull out of November tours to the northern hemisphere. At present, the revenue generated by those autumn matches hosted by the Six Nations countries is not shared with their southern hemisphere counterparts.

There is a suggestion, therefore, that the All Blacks and Springboks could pivot to exploring further money-making Tests in the United States, such as their “Greatest Rivalry” fourth Test in Baltimore this year, if the Lions threatened their financial futures by extending the gaps between their touring visits, which provide huge cash injections.

They will consider alterations to the host allocation model, for instance whether it becomes a 16-year rotation with an additional destination (eg France, Japan or Argentina) integrated alongside the existing three to significantly increase revenue, margin and profit from each tour. The Lions are expected to play France in a one-off match before the 2029 New Zealand tour.

The news is sure to cause a stir among the Sanzaar nations of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa given the importance of Lions tours to their financial security. Rugby Australia posted a record annual profit of AUS $70.6million (£37.4million) from Lions year, which compared to a $36.8million loss the previous year.