Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United on Monday Night Football
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and all-weather racing at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Golf, on the USPGA the Genesis Invitational tournament
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, New York and Rottterdam
- Cricket, the final T20 International between South Africa and England in Centurion
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing for £199 here
Free tip
South Africa v England 3rd T20 Centurion 12.30pm Sunday
After winning the 50-over World Cup last July, England will look to become the first men's side to hold both global limited-overs trophies simultaneously at the T20 World Cup in Australia in October and November.
England’s tour of South Africa concludes on Sunday with the third and final T20 at Centurion. England lost the T20 in unfortunate circumstances by 1 run, losing 4 wickets for five runs at the end of the match when they looked set to win. I am writing ahead of the second T20 on Friday in Durban.
England’s problem in East London in the first game was really one of balance. With Buttler moved to open, breaking up the Roy-Bairstow opening partnership, the side was left short of finishers lower down the order with only Stokes batting at six an effective option in an era where sides tend to look for fast starts and pack their batting order with big hitters down the order.
My interest here is once again looking at Temba Bavuma, who opened the batting for South Africa in the first game alongside Quinton De Kock and top scored with 43 off 27 balls. The angle here is basically a value one. For the second T20i De Kock is favourite in the Top South Africa batsman market at sub 2-1, which is reasonable enough for their most effective batsman in the format in a line up not full of depth. Bavuma can be backed at 100/30.
Beyond those two the South African batting order features Van Der Dussen at 3, Miller at 4, Smuts at 5 and then a series of all-rounders. Van Der Dussen has played nine T20 internationals, two scores above fifty, Smuts has also played nine, top score 45 and Miller is a veteran of 73 T20 internationals usually batting 5 or 6 and has two scores over 50.
Bavuma himself is an inexperienced T20 international cricketer, this will be his fifth match but even if you look at De Kock’s record in the format, its clear that he doesn’t have an insurmountable task to top score. De Kock averages 30 in 39 internationals with only 5 scores about 50.
Let’s try Bavuma again
10 points Temba Bavuma Top South African batsman 3rd T20I Sunday at centurion at 4/1 with Betfred (3/1 elsewhere which is the price you'd expect to see)
Go for it
In the 2019 NFL regular season teams went for it on fourth down-and-2 35% of the time and 53% of the time on fourth-and-1. In 2018, teams went for it on 24% of their fourth-and-2s during the same span. Fifteen years ago teams went for it on fourth-and-2 only 16 % of the time and from that pont on, due to a national discussion that took place after some high profile decisions by big name coaches in big names, many teams started to consult on decision-making analytics.
One metric called “win probability forfeited,” shows how often teams cost themselves an edge in the game by needlessly punting. NFL teams are forfeiting about half of what they did a decade ago, The league has changed dramatically and there’s still more room to go. In short, fourth down is increasingly an offensive down.
These days the New York Times runs a feature called “Fourth down bot” utilising analytical models and it offers some interesting rule of thumbs for fourth down. These include:
On fourth-and-1, go for it anywhere on the field from your own 9 yard line or better.
On fourth-and-2, go for it everywhere beyond your 28-yard line.
On fourth-and-3, go for it almost everywhere beyond your 40.
This, of course, is far too aggressive for NFL coaches who often cannot countenance handing their opponent’s offense such a short field would mean guaranteed points in many cases.
The use of 4th down in the NFL took a leap forward because of the Philadelphia Eagles under Pederson in the superbowl winning season including the “Philly Special” itself in the superbowl . In that 20176 season the Eagles broke the NFL record for fourth-down attempts in a season Multiple teams now have an analyst advising coaches when to go for it on fourth down or for two-point conversions.
In 2019 Jim Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens took it to the next level with offensive players on over 75% of their 4th downs, advised in game by an analytics team into the ear of the coach of the sideline.
Purely by the numbers most NFL teams are still too conservative, that said next season the upwards trend of going for it, less punting and greater reliance on ever more sophisticated data and modelling is likely to continue
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Racing, over the jumps at Newbury, Utoxeter and Warwick and all-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the second round of the Six Nations
- Golf, the Vic Open in Australia on the European Tour and on the USPGA the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Cordoba, Montpellier and Maharastra
- Cricket, the final ODI between South Africa and England in Johannesburg
Six Nations (1st Feb-14th March)
The full package, outrights, specials and all the match write ups with details of all the bets that we have is £50 here
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing for £199 here
Free tip
3rd and Final ODI South Africa v England Johannesburg 8am Sunday
England were quite flat in the first ODI of the series in Cape Town, with the top order failing to contribute meaningfully on a slow pitch and it was left to Denly and the lower order to get the total to over 250. England’s second-string attack (only Woakes from the World cup team, Archer, Wood and Stokes rested from this squad) were then both unthreatening and wayward and South Africa chased the total down easily thanks to DeKock and Bavuma.
England batted Banton at 6, which is not where he will end up, but nevertheless renders top batsman opportunities more unlikely and he is in the region of 10-1 here.
I am writing before the conclusion of Friday’s abandoned second ODI in Durban. In the Top South African batsman market Quinton De Kock, opening the batting and an experienced ODI player is understandably favourite. He averages 45 in 116 ODI innings with 15 hundreds and 24 fifties but at 2/1 there isn’t much to go for.
Temba Bavuma batting at 3 is a more interesting price. He scored 98 in the first match and is available at just under 4/1. He has only played 3 ODIs (40 test matches), Cape Town was his first ODI since 2017 and comes just after his re-introduction to the Test team. A talented back foot player in an inexperienced team without a lot of batting depth, he is an interesting value alternative to DeKock here
10 pointsTemba Bavuma Top South Africa Batsman 3rd ODI at 9/2 with William Hill, more firms to follow before Sunday
Down.
Saracens’ relegation is the most remarkable scandal the domestic game has ever seen. As it emerged that the club was once more in breach of the salary cap this season after Nigel Wray stepped down as Chairman the new board was faced with the choice of opening up the books to a forensic audit or accepting relegation. They took relegation after deliberate circumvention of the rules over a significant period of time. In effect this is for two years as Championship rules say that clubs cannot be promoted if not compliant for two years at the time of relegation.
The players are in an unfortunate situation now, some fringe players will leave in the short term, others will leave on loan and the core of the squad will face two seasons in the Championship. Off-loading some of the bigger salaried players will not be easy. Other Premiership sides operate up to the salary cap, French clubs also have salary cap restrictions, many Pro14 sides are not well off and operating overseas would as it stands mean players would not be eligible to play for England. Finally there are implications for the British Lions tour to South Africa next summer in which a number of the Saracens players would expect to be selected for the tour
Every scenario here is bad but of course something had to be done. The bigger picture is that Professional rugby union continues to be torn between the need to grow audiences and revenues but with no proven strategy to do so and many club owners taking punts within a game without the governance to be effective
Notwithstanding Saracens strategy, the governing body has given the impression of making things up as it goes along. Only last week there were two new additions to the salary cap regulations: Any club who has breached cap/suspected of breaching the cap can be subjected to a mid-season audit and secondly Failure to comply may result in a 70 point deduction. This is what has happened to Saracens in addition to the original punishments.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City
- Racing, over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and all-weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield
- Rugby Union, the start of the Six Nations
- Golf, the Saudi International and on the USPGA, The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale
- Tennis, the conclusion of the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Cricket, the three match ODI series between South Africa and England begins in Cape Town on Tuesday
NFL The Super Bowl
The Super Bowl on Sunday in Miami, write ups including all of Neil Channing's prop bets costs £25 available here
Six Nations (1st Feb-14th March)
The full package, outrights, specials and all the match write ups with details of all the bets that we have is £50 here
Free tip
South Africa v England ODI Series
1st Match is in Cape Town on Tuesday
England’s tour of South Africa concludes with a three match ODI series then T20 matches after England convincingly won the Tests 3-1.
The England squad for the ODIs is selected with an eye on the T20 World Cup in Australia later this year with the likes of Stokes, Archer, Wood and Bairstow rested for the longer games ahead of a busy schedule through the year
The England ODI Squad does contain the core of the World Cup winning squad supplemented by younger players and they meet a very inexperienced South Africa squad led by new captain Quinton De Kock.
One of the newer England players is someone who has featured in this column before, Tom Banton, who at the age of 21 made his England debut in the New Zealand T20 series. Banton is a real talent, a very clean striking hitter with a great temperament. Currently ideally suited for the shorter formats of the game and his T20 skills should transfer to ODIs where the use of two white balls, fielding restrictions and often pitches set up for high scoring encounters often allow for the top of batting orders to go well.
Banton most recently player for Brisbane Heat in the Big Bash League and confirmed his burgeoning reputation with 226 runs in 7 games with 18 sixes at a strke rate of 176 including scores of 55,56 and 64. He’ll have another opportunity to impress having been picked up in the 2020 IPL auction by KKR.
He is absolutely a player to follow in the early stages of his international career. In terms of bets across a series that remains a stretch as consistency can be an issue at this stage. For the first ODI though I am looking at him for top batsman and embracing the single game variance
10 points Tom Banton Top England batsman 1st ODI v South Africa 4/1 generally
Four or Five days?
From the introduction of the ICC World Test Championship, to day-night Test cricket with the pink ball, to players’ names written on the back of their whites, there has been a concerted effort to revitalise the longest format of the game in recent years.
The latest addition in the International Cricket Council’s efforts to sustain Test matches could be the introduction of four-day Tests. The ICC could make four-day Tests mandatory from 2023 as part of the World Test Championship, primarily to free up the crowded calendar.
This idea has left the cricketing world divided. While there are plenty of former and current players who have raised concerns about tinkering with the format, there are also those who believe it is the right time for Test cricket to embrace the change and evolve with time. Over 60% of Tests since 2018 have not needed the fifth day.
There is no denying that there are advantages to having four-day Tests. With the number of draws reducing and the majority of matches ending inside four days, it makes sense business-wise to not have a fifth day allocated. Playing 100 overs in a day for four days (two of which could be in the weekend) could prove to be just the kind of reinvention Test cricket, which often struggles for audiences, needs at the moment.
However, the purists are of the opinion that Test cricket is just fine as it is. As was visible in the South Africa-England match in Cape Town, Test cricket can always provide fascinating fifth-day finishes. Also, the pitch gets worn out by the fifth day and becomes much more condusive for spin. In this regard, it could be argued that reducing the match to four days is unfair to spinners.
It may be that a flexible system is implemented, or trialled, where minor series are played as four day matches (say for example a match like the one off test between England and Ireland at Lords last year) and the big marquee Test series and the Test championship matches stay five days.
For four day matches you will get many more draws especially where weather is a factor. Wickets are a lot flatter than they have been in the past, so it currently allows (or should allow ) teams to bat longer and to put pressure on sides.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From this month Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup 4th round
- Racing, over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter and all-weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield
- Golf, the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA, The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines
- Tennis, the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Cricket, the fourth Test between South Africa and England in Johannesburg
NFL The Super Bowl
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami, write ups including all of Neil Channing's prop bets costs £25 available here
Six Nations (1st Feb-14th March)
The full package, outrights, specials and all the match write ups with details of all the bets that we have is £50 available here
Free tip
FA Cup 4th round
Brentford v Leicester Saturday 12.45pm
Leicester of course had terrific form until Christmas, albeit performing above the norm in terms of chance conversion (Vardy’s purple patch) and defensive trends (Soyuncu and Evans protected by Ndidi) but a tough run of fixtures over the break was the beginning of a reversion to the mean for their results. Losses to Manchester City and Liverpool weren’t a surprise but the congested run of fixtures has taken its toll on a young squad playing a high pressing, possession-based game. Ndidi has been a significant absence, albeit returning to fitness now.
In Leicester’s last nine Premier League games they have won only 3, with two draws for 11 points out of a possible 27. They rotated heavily, 9 changes from the game a few days earlier, in beating Wigan 2-0 at home in the third round and this fixture is sandwiched between a Premier League game where they performed well, once again moving the ball at pace albeit West Ham were faily lacklustre opponents and the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi final at Villa next midweek, a tight contest, so we can expect significant rotation here as well.
Brentford away is a tough draw, a side in the top 4 in the Championship having only conceded 21 goals in 28 league matches. In their front three of Watkins, Benramha and Mbuemo they have a trio who have scored 18,5 and 11 respectively of Brentford’s 44 goals so far this season, the latter two more evidence of Brentford’s successful analytics-based recruitment strategy of several years standing under Benham
Brentford are backable at 3/1 here against an odds-on away team in the midst of a tough schedule and with other motivations, potentially a game away from Wembley next Wednesday.
10 points Brentford to beat Leicester City at 3/1 with William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
Decision time
This year Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards, going over 5,000 but also threw over 30 interceptions. It was also the last year of his rookie contract. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face a big decision this off-season. Firstly some context, it was Winston’s first season with a new coach and he hasn’t had very good coaching before this. He has a bad Offensive line that didn’t help. Conversely he has two very good top receivers in Evans and Godwin. Everyone is well aware of Winston’s propensity for poor decisions and interceptions but we also have to acknowledge Winston’s more talented than at least half the NFL’s starting QBs.
So what are the Buccaneers’ options?
Option 1A: Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag. Winston won’t be allowed to leave for nothing, he is too too valuable and they can get too many draft picks for trading him. This tag let’s Tampa Bay try to work-out a new deal while seeing if someone will give them a haul of picks (minimum 2 1st rounders) for him. There will be teams willing to pay a hefty price including a big contract to get Winston.
Option 1B: Exclusive Franchise Tag: This means only the Buccaneers can negotiate a new deal with Winston and the cost of the tag is a little higher. Whether they use exclusive or non-exclusive will say a lot about how they feel about him and his progression.
Option 2: Long term deal. This is still a decent possibility, but not a strong one. This is a boom-bust option for the franchise.
Pros: Based on Winston’s volatility of performance, Tampa Bay could sign him for a discount below top price. If they can pull that off and get “Good Jameis” under Arians at a decent price, this could be a huge result.
Cons: If the Buccaneers call it wrong, it could put them in an awful position for the next few years and handicap them terribly with a high priced quarterback limiting their ability to build their roster. The risk is incredibly high on a long term deal so that’s why the tag is probably more likely.
The secondary factor here is that if you tag Winston and he catches fire next year, you’re going to really have to pay him the following season. The tag may save money and buy time but it could really cost them in the end if they call it wrong.
Do the Bucs see progress & truly believe in Winston? What’s Winston’s asking price? If those 2 things align, a deal will get done.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From this month Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester United
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- NFL Conference Championships in the Play-Offs
- Rugby Union, the final round of Pool Games in the European Champions Cup
- Golf, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA, The American Express Championship at PGA West, California
- Tennis, the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Cricket, the third Test between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth
NFL The Super Bowl
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rigby Pool matches
Ulster v Bath 3.15pm Saturday
This weekend sees the last round of pool matches.
Ulster are in line to claim one of three runners up spots and reach the knockout stages for the second year running, they have 4 pool stage wins in 5 games and 17 points, their sole defeat co ing last weekend last weekend at Clermont Auvergne 29-13 where Ulster were left rueing missed first half opportunities.
Bath have lost 5 of 5 pool matches and with a constant schedule of Gallagher Premiership games (mid-table currently with 4 wins from 8) to come and absences likely during Six Nations could rotate heavily this match.
Last weekend against Harlequins in this competition Bath picked a young team, making no less than 14 changes to the starting line-up which lost the West Country derby away to Gloucester in the Premiership the weekend before. and lost 19-25 at home.
Ulster have a considerable home advantage in Belfast,are 2nd in their Pro 14 pool behind Leinster with 7 wins from 10 matches and have one of the stand out players in European rugby so far this season in John cooney a scrum half with nine tries to date
Ulster should be several scores too good for Bath given the visitors likely line up. Indeed the handicap spread has them at -23 points and I intend to play the winning margin across two ranges of scores this weekend
6 points Ulster to win by 21-25 points at 5/1 with SkyBet and William Hill
6 points Ulster to win by 26-30 points at 11/2 with SkyBet and William Hill
Youth Movement
Despite the continuing success of 40-year-old Drew Brees the NFL has seen a youth movement at quarterback this season. More quarterbacks age 27 or younger are starting, and winning, games this season than ever before.
According to the NFL, 289 starts have been made this season by quarterbacks age 27 or younger, by far the most in any season since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. In the regular this season 145 games were won by quarterbacks age 27 or younger, again by far the most in NFL history.
The results don’t change if the cutoff age is changed to 26 or 25: However you define “young,” this has been the most productive season in NFL history for young quarterbacks.
From 22 year old Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson and promising rookies like Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones the league has seen a very promising influx of young passers.
Quarterbacks today (especially very high draft picks) are expected to either start out the gate, or given a very short leash in terms of performance. Very, Very few quarterbacks will have the luxury of sitting for three years (e.g. Aaron Rodgers) to learn from a star veteran. It’s not unusual now to see a high draft pick get benched/traded/released if that person don’t meet expectations immediately.
On the flip side..NFL fans of some franchises have had to endure the downside of this trend with players like Winston, Mariota and Rosen providing at best mixed performance.
For the successful examples, part of the reason for their success is their low salary and ability for teams to build a good roster around them. Once they get paid on their second contract after 4-5 years of their rookie deal then less of the salary cap can go to other players.
If a team, through a combination of scouting skill and luck does hit on a quarterback on a rookie deal, the team has around $30m more per year on the salary cap compared to a second contract quarterback. That lets a team afford three more Pro Bowl players at other positions out of 22 starters and can make a big difference as we have seen with the Ravens this year (recruiting Earl Thomas, Mark Ingram and Marcus Peters) onto a roster led by Lamar Jackson.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
