The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st October-1st November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Newmarket, over the jumps at Ayr and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Arsenal.
• Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
• Golf, the World Wide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Bath v Sale 3.05pm Saturday

Two sides with mixed starts to the season meet this weekend, as I write with a better weather forecast than for last week’s low scoring games in the strong winds and heavy rain across the country.

Bath, losing semi-finalists in last year’s play-offs having been champions in 2024-25 are currently 6^th of 10 in the fledgling table beginning the season with wins at Harlequins and at home to Exeter before suffering three losses, 71-48 at Northampton, in the European cup at home to Montpellier and then 23-5 last Friday night at Gloucester.

Bath have an impressive squad which is especially stacked across the back row and the back line but their squad lacks some depth compared to prior seasons after depatures such as Thomas Du Toit and Alfie Barbeary in the pack which means their front row in particular has a slightly green feel.

At first choice the team can still call on the likes of Finn Russell and Ollie Lawrence in the backs and Guy Pepper and Sam Underhill in the back row and I would expect them to be in the top four come the season’s end but for now there are vulnerabilities.

Sale Sharks also have a 2-2 record and sit 7^th. This follows a disappointing season last year where they finished 7^th only winning 5 of 18 league games. Their fragility was highlighted by the concession of 90 tries in the league last season at an average of nearly 5 a game.

Sale began the season losing at homer to Bristol before wins at Saracens andat home to Harlequins before successive losses to Glasgow in Euope and a 17-3 loss at Newcastle Red Bulls in a gale last Friday night.

After last season Sale moved to spend up to the full salary cap with the arrival of Joe Marchant, Courtney Lawes, Alex Lozowski, Nicky Smith and Christ Tshuinza to completment their core including George Ford, the Curfry brothers and four other England squad members Luke Coiwan-Dickie, Bevan Rodd, Tom Roebuck and Asher Opoku-Fordjour.

As the new integrates with the old a higher finish than last season is likely.

Here Bath are understandably favourites and we can get Sale +13.5-points in a battle of two inconsistent sides.

10 points Sale Sharks +13.5-points at 10/11 generally

Uncompetitive

English clubs managed a single win from eight games in the opening round of the Champions Cup recently. Only one English team, Northampton Saints, have reached the final of the tournament since Exeter won seven years ago.

A low salary cap compared to the French Top 14 makes our domestic 10-team tournament competitive whilst limiting these teams’ abilities to build squads capable of winning in Europe.

Seven of our eight sides conceded more than 30 points, with five allowing more than 40. Across the start of the domestic campaign, English club defences have been statistically weaker than those in the Top 14 and the United Rugby Championship (URC) too.

In the Prem teams in attack are averaging 31.6 points, 4.7 tries and 11.3 clean breaks per game. They are also averaging 28.9 missed tackles in defence. In the Top 14, tries, clean breaks, defenders beaten and missed tackles are all rarer. In the URC, in which teams are averaging 22.3 missed tackles, the same statistics are even lower.

 Prem clubs missed an average of 26.4 tackles in round one of the Champions Cup as their opponents missed 21. Non-Prem teams created an average of 11.9 clean breaks in those clashes, allowing nine.

There have been concerns that Prem refereeing, specifically a perceived lenience towards the teams in possession, could harm English clubs. Players from the URC are more used to officials from other countries.

One other concerning pattern was that seven of the eight Prem teams lost the second halves of their respective matches. Bath, Bristol, Saracens, Leicester and Sale all gave up 22 points or more after half-time. There can be many reasons for such collapses, from fitness levels and bench strength to the capacity to adapt over 80 minutes.

Big picture the absence of relegation from the English Prem is unhelpful, unpopular with fans and it is time to add clubs; to bring greater variety, to improve the narrative rhythm of the season by reducing the disruptive (and financially compromising) gaps between games and to provide more top-flight minutes for players. One measurement of the opportunities offered by the Top 14 is the fact that there are 92 more match-day squad places per week there than in the Prem because the Top 14 is four clubs bigger.

The Prem is hoping for expansion before the 2029-30 season, whether via promoted teams  or newly established franchises. More games, and potential clashes with Test windows, would require larger rosters and greater investment, possibly with a higher salary cap in due course but over time it would improve the depth of playing stocks in English rugby and it may change the current consensus for top division teams that relegation would be somewhat terminal, once down, the financial effects would mean sides would be unlikely to return. Ultimately to be competitive again in European competition, English sides will need to operate within a bigger salary cap environment to recruit top class talent.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th October

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Doncaster and Newbury, over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Everton v Chelsea.
• Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
• Cricket, England ODI Series in Pakistan
• Golf, the Mexico Open on the USPGA Tour
• Tennis, ATP Ernste Bank and Swiss Indoor Opens

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Leicester Tigers versus Northampton Saints, Saturday 3.05pm

One of the big local derbies of English domestic rugby as PREM Champions Northampton travel to East Midlands rivals Leicester (losing semi-finalists 45-31 to Northampton in last year’s play-offs).

So far this season Leicester have followed an opening day 38-40 home defeat to Saracens with wins at Newcastle and at home to Gloucester before a heavy 41-17 loss at Pau in the Pyrenees in the first round of this year’s European Cup.

Last season Leicester’s style of play began to move beyond their traditional forward/attritional strengths with expansive attack befitting suitability for the current law changes that have increased try-scoring and high scoring games worldwide.

This season there is a modest rebuild underway. Ending last season at or near salary cap limits they have a long outgoing list full of tough competitors notably including George Martin, Hanro Liebenberg, Nicky Smith, Izaia Perese and James O’Connor.

A number of their signings, younger players with potential, have a “Moneyball” feel to add to a squad built around a core of England’s Chessum, Heyes, Steward and Van Poortvliet. As squad rotation comes into play during this period of European competition and the Autumn Nations League Internationals I regard it as no more than a possibility than a probability that Leicester will make the top 4 of the PREM this season.

Northampton began the season putting 59 points on Newcastle before losing 41-26 at Bristol and beating Bath 71-48 in an amazing match a fortnight ago. As the most exciting side in the English domestic rugby a 28-12 win at home to Cardiff last weekend in the first European game of the season was atypically low scoring but the match was played in torrential rain.

They can be exposed by heavy-duty scrummaging which is where Leicester will look to attack them, and the weather forecast for Leicester this Saturday calls for rain too.

Admittedly it’s a fervent local derby, but I was surprised to see Leicester 1.5-point favourites here. Perhaps that also reflects the poor weather forecast for Saturday afternoon which might make the game more attritional and blunt Northampton’s attack. It’s still value though, probably 6-7 points away from a fair Northampton supremacy in neutral weather.

10 points Northampton +1.5-points at 10/11 gfenerally

Discouraged

The late summer England-Pakistan Test Series produced the result that the new England management were looking for, but as a wider reflection on the state of Test cricket at the start of the second quarter of the 21st century it could hardly have been more depressing.

Pakistan’s recent results have been dire. They have pulled off a few victories at home against some of the better opposition but in contrived circumstances on pitches crudely designed to assist their spinners.

This is not specifically a Pakistan problem, but a global one. The sport is facing a crisis that is ever more apparent. Everywhere one looks, other formats of the game are jostling to survive in the same space as T20 franchise cricket. Many insiders think that in ten years, Test cricket will only be played by a small band of countries who can afford to sustain a domestic system capable of servicing a properly functioning national Test team. 

Aside from England, Australia and India who will be in this group remains to be seen. or sure. New Zealand perhaps and also South Africa, where there has been something of a revival thanks to winning the World Test Championship.

Sri Lanka and West Indies are fast disappearing as Test-cricketing cultures, in what seems an irreversible process. Bangladesh and Pakistan have huge, cricket-crazy populations but their futures are uncertain in the face of numerous challenges, not least having India as unreliable neighbours.

Even the more powerful nations are buffeted by franchise winds. In the days before  the Hundred all three Tests in the Pakistan series would probably have taken place in August, and the players would have been able to prepare thoroughly. As it is, the final match at Edgbaston did not start until September 9, the second-latest date for a Test in England behind the concluding Ashes Test of 2019. 

The players paying the heaviest price are fast bowlers, whose work is most arduous and many of whom are under pressure to spread themselves across formats without compromising the thing that makes them special, their speed. Inevitably, it is those from the less well-resourced regions who are stretched the most. They are the ones most likely to suffer from erratic selection policy, less-thorough medical support, and less-generous central contracts, which only make the lure of the franchise circuit more attractive. 

Like in many countries, the Pakistan Cricket Board battles to keep its players on the park. It has a policy of granting only two No Objection Certificates per player per year for franchise tournaments, and has appointed a British-based sports medicine expert to improve fitness levels.

Pakistan have discouraged pace bowling by preparing spinning pitches and because so many players want to play T20 they’re just not bothered about Test-match cricket.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17 October

Coming up this weekend

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Leeds United v Manchester United.
• Rugby Union, the Opening Pool matches of the European Rugby Champions Cup
• Cricket, An ODI Tri series England, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Pakistan next week
• Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Genesis Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP European and Almaty Opens

Free Tip

2026-27 Champion Cup Pool 3 Gloucester v Bordeaux Begles Friday 8pm

Bordeaux Begles beat Leinster in last year’s final to win their second ERCC title in succession. In recent years the French Top 14 sides have dominated this competition, the advantage of a more lucrative salary cap within which to fit their playing squads. Following closely behind Leinster have been consistently competitive, running the de facto Ireland rugby academy gives them a pipeline of players with which to supplement their squad which contains the majority of the Ireland national team.

The 2026-27 competition begins with the first round of pool matches this weekend and the tournament culminates in a final in Lyon next May.

Ante-post prices for this year’s competition are:

Toulouse 5/2

Bordeaux 3/1

Leinster 11/2

12/1 bar beginning with Northampton and Bath.

Previously in this competitiopn the top four teams in each pool automatically qualified for the Round of 16. However, as of this season only the top three teams will automatically qualify with the top two earning a home draw. The remaining four places will go to the four clubs with the highest number of match points across the competition, regardless of what pool they are in.

Elsewhere, the bonus point system will mirror that of the Top 14, with teams only securing a try bonus point if they score three or more tries more than the opposition. This has changed from the four-try system used since 2003-2004. In an era, engendered by law changes, of attacking rugby this will provide another impetus to high scoring games.

The changes are designed to enhance the competitiveness and intensity of the Pool stage fixtures by enhancing the battle for qualification to the Round of 16, and ensuring matches stay competitive for longer.

These are the pools for this year:

1 Leinster, Glasgow, Clermont, Leicester, Sale, Pau

2 Toulouse, Saracens, La Rochelle, Exeter, Lions, Connacht

3 Bordeaux, Stormers, Munster, Racing 92, Bristol, Gloucester

4 Northampton, Bath, Montpellier, Bulls, Cardiff, Stade Francais.

The competition begins on Friday night at Gloucester. Gloucester lead the early English PREM table with 2 wins from 3 games and a +62-point differential. It is estimated that Gloucester’s squad spend has risen by more than £500,000 for this season within a £6.4m salary cap (The French Top 14 has an €11 million cap for comparison). Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake have been acquired from Ospreys and are two of the most exciting signings around the league alongside Lock Jean Kleyn a dual Ireland and Springboks international who has made the move from Munster.

Bordeaux are third in the Top 14 table with 4 wins from 6 games after a 23-22 win at Clermont last weekend. Their new recruits include England number 8 Tom Willis. Their strike power is immense. Six of seven first choice backs are current French internationals including Bielle-Biarry, probably the world’s best winger.

Bordeaux are -10.5-points for this game and despite the Gloucester investment I think they’ll struggle to contain the French team’s firepower. Bordeaux to cover.

10 points Bordeaux-Begles -10.5-points at 10/11 generally

Standing Up

In the 2026 cricketing summer wicketkeepers shaped Test matches through the return of an old tactic: standing up to the stumps to seam bowling.

The fast-medium seam bowling quartet of Matt Henry, Nathan Smith, Mohammad Abbas and Ollie Robinson have all regularly operated with the wicketkeeper standing up to the stumps. Together, this quartet has taken 61 wickets at 16.4 a-piece.

To get the batters stuck on the crease on helpful wickets has been almost unplayable sometimes with the nip and getting them trapped right back on the crease.

With the keeper standing up to the stumps, bowlers are encouraged to bowl fuller and attack the stumps more. This fuller length means that deliveries that would previously have passed over the wickets instead hit the stumps, making lbw and clean-bowled dismissals more likely. In turn, the knowledge that their stumps are constantly being attacked compels batsmen to play at more deliveries, increasing the risk of an edge.

The tactic forces batsmen to play differently. To combat seam bowling, batsmen generally like to line up outside their crease thereby meaning that they can meet the ball earlier, giving it less time to deviate off the seam.

This approach was particularly fashionable for England during the Bazball era, led by Joe Root and Harry Brook. The tactic leads to bowlers dragging their length back to avoid overpitching, reducing the threat to the stumps.

But with the keeper standing up, batsmen must shuffle back in their crease to avoid being stumped. This was encapsulated by Root’s response to Mohammad Rizwan coming up to the stumps to Abbas in the first innings at Lord’s in early September. With the keeper back to Abbas, Root met the ball an average of 2.76 metres away from the stumps. With the keeper up, Root met the ball 1.83 metres away from the stumps

It is estimated that the same bowler will bowl deliveries that would hit the stumps twice as often when the keeper stands up.

Bowlers’ success using this approach does not depend on their skill alone. It also relies on the qualities of the men behind the stumps, too. For an 80mph bowler, a wicketkeeper has about 0.5 seconds between the ball leaving the bowler’s hand and it reaching them. During this time, keepers have to react to the ball deviating in the air, then off the pitch, and then taking the batsman’s edge, or ricocheting off their pads. Standing up, keepers must anticipate what the ball will do before it reaches them. Keepers standing up to the stumps for 80mph bowlers appears to be much more than a fad.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th October

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Newmarket and York, over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Manchester City.
• Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
• Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Indian Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP European Open

Free Tip

New Zealand v Australia Bledisloe Cup Rugby Saturday 7.10am, Auckland

This is the first game of a two match Bledisloe Cup Series ahead of the Northern Hemisphere phase of the inaugural Nations Championship which resumes in November with rounds 4-6 ahead of the final. The second Bledisloe Cup game takes place in Sydney next weekend.

New Zealand have an unprecedented 53-match winning run at Eden Park Auckland stretching back to 1994. Most recently New Zealand lost the 2Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry” series 3-1 in South Africa winning the first game 33-16 then losing 26-33 24-29 and finally 28-43 in Baltimore.

In that series they worked round problems at scrum and line out to display formidable attacking skills, out-scoring South Africa 15-14 in tries across the four matches under new Head Coach David Rennie.

 Australia meanwhile held off a dramatic late South Africa comeback to secure a 42-38 victory in a thrilling one-off Test in Perth last month. Australia led by 25-points before being reduced to 11 men late in the game. Three late South African tries couldn’t quite overturn their big deficit and Australia won their first game under new Head Coach Les Kiss.

New Zealand are 12.5-point favourites for this game, and as widely expected should win. However the modern rules favouring attacking sides (more difficult to defend mauls, more difficult to defend high balls) and greater player conditioning and ball handling skills in the modern era tends to suggest a high scoring game (markets have this as a 58.5-point game) with two teams such as these with such talent in their backlines. New Zealand are missing their two first choice tens, Reuben Love and Richie Mo’unga and have moved Damien McKenzie from 15 to 10 and brought Beauden Barrett back at 15. Captain Ardie Savea is still out injured. He was a major loss at the end of the South Africa series. These absences moved the line a point lower on the team announcements.

Australia have stuck with the team that beat South Africa and are capable of causing New Zealand many problems, probably not enough to win but enough to cover the big spread.

10 points Australia +12.5 points at 10/11 generally

Ashes to the Northern Ashes.

England will begin their quest to regain the men's Ashes from Australia at Trent Bridge on 18 June next year, with the women's series starting six days later.

For the men, it has a pretty similar feel to 2023: the five Tests are crunched into 46 days, from June 18 to August 2 all over in time for The Hundred.

Traditionalists like me want a return to a Test starting every second Thursday, allowing time for anticipation to build, and players to rest.

Those looking for positives this time will say that this Ashes window will give cricket its time in the sun, ahead of the Premier League kick-off in mid-August. It is also unrealistic to expect modern Test squads to go on tours in a vastly changed landscape that features lucrative franchise tournaments.

The Australians are again likely to have six Tests here next summer. They are top of the World Test Championship standings and the final is at the Kia Oval in June. That is six Tests in 54 days.

The second Test is at Lord's (June 30). Edgbaston hosts the third Test (July 8), and then the series moves to the Utilita Bowl, Southampton, on July 21 which will become the tenth UK ground to host an Ashes test. The Kia Oval is back as the traditional venue for the final Test.

There has been an outcry about the absence of Headingley or Old Trafford. The decision was criticised by Andy Burnham, then the mayor of Greater Manchester, when it was announced in 2023.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th October

Coming Up this weekend:

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, and Redcar, over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Nations League matches including England matches against Croatia and in the Czech Republic.
• Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix
• Golf, the Baycurrent Classic on the USPGA Tour and the Spanish Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Bath v Exeter Chiefs Friday 7.45pm

This is the second week of the new PREM rugby season. Last weekend as the season opened 52 tries were scored in the five games, a new record for the league beating a week in 2017 when the league contained 12 teams not 10.

This continues a trend from last season where tries per game were up over 8 from 6.5 two seasons ago. There are various reasons why the sort is becoming higher scoring.

• Player fitness and conditioning
•  Specialist skills coaching, even forwards are now proficient offloaders to keep moves going
• Last year’s changes to rules around the aerial game, preventing the recipient of high balls being shielded. The aerial game has become more of a contest and more difficult to defend.
• This year’s changes around defending mauls, removing defenders on the side quicker
• Longer term, the introduction of yellow cards and twenty-minute red cards and TMOs has led to more players leaving the field and more space to attack into

In last season’s PREM play-off semi-final Exeter Chiefs pulled off the upset winning at Champions Bath, before losing to the Northampton Saints in the final.

Bath entered this season without significant players South African prop Thomas Du Toit and No.8 Alfie Barbeary who left for Saracens. Even without them Bath have one of the best and deepest squads in the PREM.

The big question for Bath this season is their attack. It wasn’t so much that they were poor, but it didn’t quite fire last season as it did the season before. The departure of attack coach Lee Blackett to England was a big catalyst and Bath have recruited new assistant coach Mike Prendergast from Munster, but their new system will take a bit of time to bed in. This was seen to an extent in the opening week 31-15 away win at Harlequins.

Exeter meanwhile had a disappointing start to the season losing 24-45 at home to Gloucester who have recruited heavily during the summer.

Exeter bounced back last season from the worst top-flight campaign in their history in 2024-2025. They reached the Prem final for the first time since 2021. They have suffered a couple of major losses notably the Australian centre Len Ikitau has returned home.

Whilst Exeter are organised and exude a general energy and toughness that is enhanced by X-factor individuals their incomings this season represent “come and prove yourself” signings of younger players and if some work out as well as Andrea Zambonin, Bachuki Tchumbadze, Ethan Burger or Stehen Varney in recent seasons it will be a bonus.

In this high-scoring era it’s interesting to see Bath 15-point plus favourites, a quote thar reflects Exeter’s slow start last week but not their attacking potential under the sport’s current regulations too.

10 points Exeter Chiefs +15.5 points at 10/11 generally

Home Grown?

Stephen Fleming has been confirmed as the new England Men's Test head coach - but won't start the role until the South Africa series, which begins in December. Marcus Trescothick served as interim head coach for the three Pakistan Tests at the end of the Summer. Joe Root returns as the permanent Test captain.

Much of the comment upon Fleming’s appointment was negative for example that he  has no experience as a red-ball coach, that he didn't win any of his 14 Tests against Australia as New Zealand captain and that he is too close to Brendon McCullum.

Against that he was a calm and composed Test captain skipper, with a good tactical brain and became one of the highest regarded white ball coaches in the world. He’s won 5 IPL titles as coach.

Fleming’s appointment continues the overseas domination of the job. Since the Zimbabwean Duncan Fletcher was appointed in 1999, Englishmen have led the Test side for only five out of 27 years. Only two Englishmen have been appointed to the Test head coach role this century: Peter Moores, twice, and Chris Silverwood.

This century, England have won 23 Tests, and lost 24, with a homegrown coach. With overseas coaches, England have won 126 and lost 91: a win-loss ratio of 1.38, compared with 0.96 when an Englishman is in charge.

In choosing between Fleming and Richard Dawson, England were effectively deciding between a coach used to being watched by millions around the world, or one leading a side in front of crowds that are often shy of four figures. This contrast far outweighed Fleming’s lack of experience coaching in first-class cricket.

Other countries use their franchise tournaments to promote homegrown coaching talent. Five of the eight coaches in the last Big Bash were Australian; three of the six coaches in the last SA20 were South African, even with all sides affiliated to Indian Premier League ownership groups. Yet this path has largely been closed off to Englishmen. In six years of the competition, just three Englishmen have been a head coach in the Hundred. This season, just one Englishman is a head coach.

After welcoming private investment, the ECB no longer has any control at all over who is appointed to Hundred franchises. Foreign teams are no more receptive to Englishmen. In the last decade, only two English coaches Chris Silverwood, with Sri Lanka; and Jonathan Trott, with Afghanistan– have led an overseas Test side. In 18 years of the competition, no Englishman has been an IPL head coach.

The contrast with Australia, New Zealand and South Africa is chastening. Despite their population of five million, New Zealand’s current coaches include Mike Hesson, who oversaw the country’s rise after 2013 and is now Pakistan head coach, Dan Vettori, a respected franchise coach who was Australia’s assistant coach, Brendon McCullum, who initially reinvigorated England, and Fleming, the most successful IPL coach in history.

Vettori, McCullum and Fleming all captained New Zealand for extended periods. In English cricket, such figures seldom go into coaching. Instead, for financial reasons, former captains tend to gravitate towards the media. The economic clout of Sky Sports and other broadcasters means that English cricket hears from many leading minds, rather than being led by them.

Rob Key, England’s director of men’s cricket, has sought to accelerate the transition of ex-players into coaching. A series of prominent former players, including Andrew Flintoff, Graeme Swann and Moeen Ali, have been involved with England’s pathway in recent years.

Optically, England might have benefited from choosing a homegrown coach to replace McCullum. Fleming’s appointment is a tacit acceptance that the best man for the job is still not English. It will be a damning indictment of the national system if, when the role of Test head coach is next vacant, once again no Englishman is considered suitable.

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