The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th November

Coming Up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter, Wetherby and Windsor.
• Football, Nations League matches include Spain v England on Sunday
• Rugby Union, round 5 of the Nations Championship including France v South Africa
• Cricket, England ODI Series in Australia
• Golf, the RSM Classic on the USPGA Tour
• Tennis, APT World Tour Finals

Free Tip

France v South Africa, Nations Championship Rugby. Paris, Friday 8.10pm

The two teams currently at the top of the Nations Championship Northern and Southern Hemisphere pools meet in the fifth and penultimate round of the inaugural Championship on Friday in Paris.

Both teams had straightforward wins last weekend, South Africa 66-7 over a depleted Italy team in Turin and France 54-17 over Fiji in Lyon.

France’s win came at a major cost though. France were already injury hit prior to the Autumn games in this Championship. Amongst the players missing the rest of thr tournament were Jalibert and Ramos, first choice 10 and 15. Against Fiji Romain Ntamack suffered a major arm injury ruling him out too.

Once Ntamack went off the reserve scrum-half Lucu took over at 10. Lucu is a real talent and also a great goal-kicker but 50 minutes against Fiji is a completely different kettle-of-fish from starting out of position against World Champions South Africa.

Alternatives to Lucu included one of the three 10s called up to the squad ahead of this game Louis Carbonel of Stade and two potential debutants, 22 year old Axel Desperes of Pau, and 24-year-old Louis Le Brun of Castres. As it is they’ve moved Antoine Dupont to 10 (with Desperes on the bench). Not sure I agree with moving the best 9 in the world, but it’s a rough situation.

South Africa had injury problems of their own before traveling to Europe. Cheslin Kolbe, Eben Etzebeth, Andre Esterhuizen and Handre Pollard are all out this game but the strength in depth in the squad is unparalleled.

They’ve made just two changes to the 23 for this game, and 16 of the 23 played in the Paris win over France 32-17 last year. This is a settled and experienced squad. They are starting their best scrummaging front row to set the tone but I would expect them to be expansive once they get on top. Two more bonus-point victories (Ireland next week) and the Springboks will qualify for the final, given the much greater points differential they have over New Zealand +140 to +73 currently. 

In these circumstances we find South Africa -8.5 points for this game, up from -7.5 after the French team announcement. I think it should be high-scoring weather permitting and I would expect South Africa to be pulling away in the second half when that depth comes into play

10 points South Africa -8.5 points at 10/11 generally  

Hung, drawn and Quartered

South Africa and New Zealand spent the summer in the “Rugby’s Great Rivalry” series proving they’re the two top ranked sides. If the pools at Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia run to seeding, their reward for this is a quarter-final tie against each other.

South Africa and New Zealand were ranked 1 and 2 on 1 December 2025 as well, the date World Rugby used to build the bands for the 2027 draw.

The 2027 World Cup structure sees twenty-four teams, six pools of four, top two from each plus the four best third-placed sides into a new round of 16. The rankings of December 2025 split the field into four bands of six, band one held South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, France, England and Argentina, and the draw put the Springboks into Pool B and the All Blacks into Pool A.

The problem is because the bracket pairs the Pool A winner with the Pool B winner at the quarter-final stage, and, unlike other sports, there’s nothing anywhere in the design that keeps the first and second seeds apart. South Africa get Italy, Georgia and Romania. New Zealand get Australia, Chile and Hong Kong China. Do the obvious thing in both pools and the two best teams in the world play each other with three rounds still to run.

Finishing second in Pool A avoids the winner of Pool B in the quarters, which means the host nation Australia has a coherent case for coming second in its own group, at home, against the All Blacks, in the biggest pool match this tournament has.

The defence of the timing of the draw was that the early draw gave “surety of the host cities and knowing where teams were going”. They could pin down the stadiums three years out.

Put the 2027 bracket next to the history of the fixture and it looks more careless rather than unlucky. South Africa and New Zealand have met 113 times since 1921, the All Blacks leading 64 to 45 with four drawn going into Saturday, and only six of those meetings have come at a World Cup.

The expanded format of the 2027 tournament will play 36 pool matches in order to send eight teams home.Four extra teams have bought us a safer pool stage in which almost nobody goes out

The fix isn’t complicated: Re-seed after the pools. Rank the six pool winners on their records and put the top two in opposite halves before the round of 16 is set. Plenty of competitions manage it, on the principle that topping your group ought to be worth something.

The objection will be logistical, and it’s genuine, because Australia is vast, the venues run from Perth to Brisbane, and a fixed bracket sells tickets and books flights. Ticketing is a real constraint but surely it just shouldn’t outrank the question of when the two best teams in the world are allowed to play each other? This is fundamental to a World Cup.

Betting Emporium results

The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Aston Villa
• Rugby Union, round 5 of the Nations Championship including England v Australia
• Cricket, England’s ODI Series in Australia begins next week
• Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
• Golf, the Austin Championship on the USPGA Tour and the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai
• Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals

Free Tip

England v Australia, Nations Championship, Twickenham, Sunday 3.10pm

The first round of matches for the second half of the inaugural Nations Championship this weekend concluding on Sunday at Twickenham.

Each teram played three games in the Southern Hemisphere in the Summer, three games each in Europe follow this month before the final at Twickenham in early December.

Australia began the competition with narrow losses to Ireland and France before a win over Italy. Since then they had won three matches against Japan and Argentina before a terrific win at home to South Africa under new Head Coach Les Kiss in a one-off test before successive Bledisloe Cup losses home and away to New Zealand.

These matches come ahead of their home World Cup in eleven months time and at their best they have a strong attacking back-line and a competitive pack, the squad probably lacks the depth of the best sides particularly at half-back but under this iteration of the rules favouring open, attacking rugby they should be a team on the up over the next year and competitive in the World Cup.

England understandably enough are 9.5-point favourites at home for the start of their autumn campaign. England have injury problems, the first choice half-back pair of Alex Mitchell and Finn Smith have been injured and from a bigger picture viewpoint the team has plenty to prove.

In the summer they lost in South Africa before beating Fiji and Argentina and this set of Autumn matches is tougher. After Australia they also get New Zealand in Round 6.

In the English domestic game so far this season tries are running at double the rate of the same stage of the 2025 season which speaks to both the rule changes and defensive problems.

This England team has a fairly humdrum midfield, and if this is an open game as we should expect, I wonder whether they’ll keep touch with the Australians, assuming the visitors have parity up front and at the breakdown.

England can score tries  At this year’s Six Nations they scored 21 tries, second only to France, and conceded 18, one fewer than the champions, yet still finished fifth.

What the Prem may not teach is how to keep the accuracy, the discipline and the game management going for 80 minutes when both sides can score freely. Steve Borthwick has spotted the problem himself. He’s criticised the Prem breakdown as less of a contest than the Test one. With news this week that Bortwhick turned down renowned defense coach Shaun Edwards’ offer to help the side in the run up to the World Cup, the defence better improve soon!

10 points Australia +8.5-points at 10/11 generally

Crowded House

While it might be true that the Nations Championship has given meaning to both the Summer and Autumn International programme a current spate of injuries hasn’t helped

France will be taking on South Africa, in what is surely the highlight fixture of the November schedule, without almost a team’s worth of players because of knocks  including Matthieu Jalibert and Thomas Ramos.

Ireland, who play South are also without several first choice players, including centre Garry Ringrose and fly-half Jack Crowley, and with fly-half Sam Prendergast nursing an injury. England’s injury list is also significant. No Sam Underhill or Guy Pepper, fly-half Fin Smith struggling to be fit for the opener, Henry Arundell and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso struggling too.

Teams have more established depth these days, with perhaps Wales the current exception there, but it’s hard to escape the notion that while Europe’s teams are already slogging their way through a gruelling schedule of domestic and European rugby, Australia and New Zealand  are coming into November looking somewhat fresher.

How much of a difference will this actually make? Scotland will not have had a lot of time together ahead of the clash with New Zealand, while England’s preparations for the clash with Australia will not be helped by the timing of Derby Day last weekend.

Britain, Ireland, France and Italy’s Internationals have been battling for six weeks straight including trips to South Africa. By the end of the Nations Championship that’ll be eleven straight weeks. After that the European Cup resumes and then the Six Nations.

The schedule still feels too full. Teams will get months to prepare for the World Cup and will be at full strength and fresher than at any other time in the season cycle. Only then do we really see who the best teams are.

Betting Emporium results

The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st October-1st November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Newmarket, over the jumps at Ayr and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Arsenal.
• Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
• Golf, the World Wide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Bath v Sale 3.05pm Saturday

Two sides with mixed starts to the season meet this weekend, as I write with a better weather forecast than for last week’s low scoring games in the strong winds and heavy rain across the country.

Bath, losing semi-finalists in last year’s play-offs having been champions in 2024-25 are currently 6^th of 10 in the fledgling table beginning the season with wins at Harlequins and at home to Exeter before suffering three losses, 71-48 at Northampton, in the European cup at home to Montpellier and then 23-5 last Friday night at Gloucester.

Bath have an impressive squad which is especially stacked across the back row and the back line but their squad lacks some depth compared to prior seasons after depatures such as Thomas Du Toit and Alfie Barbeary in the pack which means their front row in particular has a slightly green feel.

At first choice the team can still call on the likes of Finn Russell and Ollie Lawrence in the backs and Guy Pepper and Sam Underhill in the back row and I would expect them to be in the top four come the season’s end but for now there are vulnerabilities.

Sale Sharks also have a 2-2 record and sit 7^th. This follows a disappointing season last year where they finished 7^th only winning 5 of 18 league games. Their fragility was highlighted by the concession of 90 tries in the league last season at an average of nearly 5 a game.

Sale began the season losing at homer to Bristol before wins at Saracens andat home to Harlequins before successive losses to Glasgow in Euope and a 17-3 loss at Newcastle Red Bulls in a gale last Friday night.

After last season Sale moved to spend up to the full salary cap with the arrival of Joe Marchant, Courtney Lawes, Alex Lozowski, Nicky Smith and Christ Tshuinza to completment their core including George Ford, the Curfry brothers and four other England squad members Luke Coiwan-Dickie, Bevan Rodd, Tom Roebuck and Asher Opoku-Fordjour.

As the new integrates with the old a higher finish than last season is likely.

Here Bath are understandably favourites and we can get Sale +13.5-points in a battle of two inconsistent sides.

10 points Sale Sharks +13.5-points at 10/11 generally

Uncompetitive

English clubs managed a single win from eight games in the opening round of the Champions Cup recently. Only one English team, Northampton Saints, have reached the final of the tournament since Exeter won seven years ago.

A low salary cap compared to the French Top 14 makes our domestic 10-team tournament competitive whilst limiting these teams’ abilities to build squads capable of winning in Europe.

Seven of our eight sides conceded more than 30 points, with five allowing more than 40. Across the start of the domestic campaign, English club defences have been statistically weaker than those in the Top 14 and the United Rugby Championship (URC) too.

In the Prem teams in attack are averaging 31.6 points, 4.7 tries and 11.3 clean breaks per game. They are also averaging 28.9 missed tackles in defence. In the Top 14, tries, clean breaks, defenders beaten and missed tackles are all rarer. In the URC, in which teams are averaging 22.3 missed tackles, the same statistics are even lower.

 Prem clubs missed an average of 26.4 tackles in round one of the Champions Cup as their opponents missed 21. Non-Prem teams created an average of 11.9 clean breaks in those clashes, allowing nine.

There have been concerns that Prem refereeing, specifically a perceived lenience towards the teams in possession, could harm English clubs. Players from the URC are more used to officials from other countries.

One other concerning pattern was that seven of the eight Prem teams lost the second halves of their respective matches. Bath, Bristol, Saracens, Leicester and Sale all gave up 22 points or more after half-time. There can be many reasons for such collapses, from fitness levels and bench strength to the capacity to adapt over 80 minutes.

Big picture the absence of relegation from the English Prem is unhelpful, unpopular with fans and it is time to add clubs; to bring greater variety, to improve the narrative rhythm of the season by reducing the disruptive (and financially compromising) gaps between games and to provide more top-flight minutes for players. One measurement of the opportunities offered by the Top 14 is the fact that there are 92 more match-day squad places per week there than in the Prem because the Top 14 is four clubs bigger.

The Prem is hoping for expansion before the 2029-30 season, whether via promoted teams  or newly established franchises. More games, and potential clashes with Test windows, would require larger rosters and greater investment, possibly with a higher salary cap in due course but over time it would improve the depth of playing stocks in English rugby and it may change the current consensus for top division teams that relegation would be somewhat terminal, once down, the financial effects would mean sides would be unlikely to return. Ultimately to be competitive again in European competition, English sides will need to operate within a bigger salary cap environment to recruit top class talent.

Betting Emporium results

The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th October

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Doncaster and Newbury, over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Everton v Chelsea.
• Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
• Cricket, England ODI Series in Pakistan
• Golf, the Mexico Open on the USPGA Tour
• Tennis, ATP Ernste Bank and Swiss Indoor Opens

Free Tip

Gallagher PREM Rugby Leicester Tigers versus Northampton Saints, Saturday 3.05pm

One of the big local derbies of English domestic rugby as PREM Champions Northampton travel to East Midlands rivals Leicester (losing semi-finalists 45-31 to Northampton in last year’s play-offs).

So far this season Leicester have followed an opening day 38-40 home defeat to Saracens with wins at Newcastle and at home to Gloucester before a heavy 41-17 loss at Pau in the Pyrenees in the first round of this year’s European Cup.

Last season Leicester’s style of play began to move beyond their traditional forward/attritional strengths with expansive attack befitting suitability for the current law changes that have increased try-scoring and high scoring games worldwide.

This season there is a modest rebuild underway. Ending last season at or near salary cap limits they have a long outgoing list full of tough competitors notably including George Martin, Hanro Liebenberg, Nicky Smith, Izaia Perese and James O’Connor.

A number of their signings, younger players with potential, have a “Moneyball” feel to add to a squad built around a core of England’s Chessum, Heyes, Steward and Van Poortvliet. As squad rotation comes into play during this period of European competition and the Autumn Nations League Internationals I regard it as no more than a possibility than a probability that Leicester will make the top 4 of the PREM this season.

Northampton began the season putting 59 points on Newcastle before losing 41-26 at Bristol and beating Bath 71-48 in an amazing match a fortnight ago. As the most exciting side in the English domestic rugby a 28-12 win at home to Cardiff last weekend in the first European game of the season was atypically low scoring but the match was played in torrential rain.

They can be exposed by heavy-duty scrummaging which is where Leicester will look to attack them, and the weather forecast for Leicester this Saturday calls for rain too.

Admittedly it’s a fervent local derby, but I was surprised to see Leicester 1.5-point favourites here. Perhaps that also reflects the poor weather forecast for Saturday afternoon which might make the game more attritional and blunt Northampton’s attack. It’s still value though, probably 6-7 points away from a fair Northampton supremacy in neutral weather.

10 points Northampton +1.5-points at 10/11 gfenerally

Discouraged

The late summer England-Pakistan Test Series produced the result that the new England management were looking for, but as a wider reflection on the state of Test cricket at the start of the second quarter of the 21st century it could hardly have been more depressing.

Pakistan’s recent results have been dire. They have pulled off a few victories at home against some of the better opposition but in contrived circumstances on pitches crudely designed to assist their spinners.

This is not specifically a Pakistan problem, but a global one. The sport is facing a crisis that is ever more apparent. Everywhere one looks, other formats of the game are jostling to survive in the same space as T20 franchise cricket. Many insiders think that in ten years, Test cricket will only be played by a small band of countries who can afford to sustain a domestic system capable of servicing a properly functioning national Test team. 

Aside from England, Australia and India who will be in this group remains to be seen. or sure. New Zealand perhaps and also South Africa, where there has been something of a revival thanks to winning the World Test Championship.

Sri Lanka and West Indies are fast disappearing as Test-cricketing cultures, in what seems an irreversible process. Bangladesh and Pakistan have huge, cricket-crazy populations but their futures are uncertain in the face of numerous challenges, not least having India as unreliable neighbours.

Even the more powerful nations are buffeted by franchise winds. In the days before  the Hundred all three Tests in the Pakistan series would probably have taken place in August, and the players would have been able to prepare thoroughly. As it is, the final match at Edgbaston did not start until September 9, the second-latest date for a Test in England behind the concluding Ashes Test of 2019. 

The players paying the heaviest price are fast bowlers, whose work is most arduous and many of whom are under pressure to spread themselves across formats without compromising the thing that makes them special, their speed. Inevitably, it is those from the less well-resourced regions who are stretched the most. They are the ones most likely to suffer from erratic selection policy, less-thorough medical support, and less-generous central contracts, which only make the lure of the franchise circuit more attractive. 

Like in many countries, the Pakistan Cricket Board battles to keep its players on the park. It has a policy of granting only two No Objection Certificates per player per year for franchise tournaments, and has appointed a British-based sports medicine expert to improve fitness levels.

Pakistan have discouraged pace bowling by preparing spinning pitches and because so many players want to play T20 they’re just not bothered about Test-match cricket.

Betting Emporium results

The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17 October

Coming up this weekend

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Leeds United v Manchester United.
• Rugby Union, the Opening Pool matches of the European Rugby Champions Cup
• Cricket, An ODI Tri series England, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Pakistan next week
• Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Genesis Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP European and Almaty Opens

Free Tip

2026-27 Champion Cup Pool 3 Gloucester v Bordeaux Begles Friday 8pm

Bordeaux Begles beat Leinster in last year’s final to win their second ERCC title in succession. In recent years the French Top 14 sides have dominated this competition, the advantage of a more lucrative salary cap within which to fit their playing squads. Following closely behind Leinster have been consistently competitive, running the de facto Ireland rugby academy gives them a pipeline of players with which to supplement their squad which contains the majority of the Ireland national team.

The 2026-27 competition begins with the first round of pool matches this weekend and the tournament culminates in a final in Lyon next May.

Ante-post prices for this year’s competition are:

Toulouse 5/2

Bordeaux 3/1

Leinster 11/2

12/1 bar beginning with Northampton and Bath.

Previously in this competitiopn the top four teams in each pool automatically qualified for the Round of 16. However, as of this season only the top three teams will automatically qualify with the top two earning a home draw. The remaining four places will go to the four clubs with the highest number of match points across the competition, regardless of what pool they are in.

Elsewhere, the bonus point system will mirror that of the Top 14, with teams only securing a try bonus point if they score three or more tries more than the opposition. This has changed from the four-try system used since 2003-2004. In an era, engendered by law changes, of attacking rugby this will provide another impetus to high scoring games.

The changes are designed to enhance the competitiveness and intensity of the Pool stage fixtures by enhancing the battle for qualification to the Round of 16, and ensuring matches stay competitive for longer.

These are the pools for this year:

1 Leinster, Glasgow, Clermont, Leicester, Sale, Pau

2 Toulouse, Saracens, La Rochelle, Exeter, Lions, Connacht

3 Bordeaux, Stormers, Munster, Racing 92, Bristol, Gloucester

4 Northampton, Bath, Montpellier, Bulls, Cardiff, Stade Francais.

The competition begins on Friday night at Gloucester. Gloucester lead the early English PREM table with 2 wins from 3 games and a +62-point differential. It is estimated that Gloucester’s squad spend has risen by more than £500,000 for this season within a £6.4m salary cap (The French Top 14 has an €11 million cap for comparison). Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake have been acquired from Ospreys and are two of the most exciting signings around the league alongside Lock Jean Kleyn a dual Ireland and Springboks international who has made the move from Munster.

Bordeaux are third in the Top 14 table with 4 wins from 6 games after a 23-22 win at Clermont last weekend. Their new recruits include England number 8 Tom Willis. Their strike power is immense. Six of seven first choice backs are current French internationals including Bielle-Biarry, probably the world’s best winger.

Bordeaux are -10.5-points for this game and despite the Gloucester investment I think they’ll struggle to contain the French team’s firepower. Bordeaux to cover.

10 points Bordeaux-Begles -10.5-points at 10/11 generally

Standing Up

In the 2026 cricketing summer wicketkeepers shaped Test matches through the return of an old tactic: standing up to the stumps to seam bowling.

The fast-medium seam bowling quartet of Matt Henry, Nathan Smith, Mohammad Abbas and Ollie Robinson have all regularly operated with the wicketkeeper standing up to the stumps. Together, this quartet has taken 61 wickets at 16.4 a-piece.

To get the batters stuck on the crease on helpful wickets has been almost unplayable sometimes with the nip and getting them trapped right back on the crease.

With the keeper standing up to the stumps, bowlers are encouraged to bowl fuller and attack the stumps more. This fuller length means that deliveries that would previously have passed over the wickets instead hit the stumps, making lbw and clean-bowled dismissals more likely. In turn, the knowledge that their stumps are constantly being attacked compels batsmen to play at more deliveries, increasing the risk of an edge.

The tactic forces batsmen to play differently. To combat seam bowling, batsmen generally like to line up outside their crease thereby meaning that they can meet the ball earlier, giving it less time to deviate off the seam.

This approach was particularly fashionable for England during the Bazball era, led by Joe Root and Harry Brook. The tactic leads to bowlers dragging their length back to avoid overpitching, reducing the threat to the stumps.

But with the keeper standing up, batsmen must shuffle back in their crease to avoid being stumped. This was encapsulated by Root’s response to Mohammad Rizwan coming up to the stumps to Abbas in the first innings at Lord’s in early September. With the keeper back to Abbas, Root met the ball an average of 2.76 metres away from the stumps. With the keeper up, Root met the ball 1.83 metres away from the stumps

It is estimated that the same bowler will bowl deliveries that would hit the stumps twice as often when the keeper stands up.

Bowlers’ success using this approach does not depend on their skill alone. It also relies on the qualities of the men behind the stumps, too. For an 80mph bowler, a wicketkeeper has about 0.5 seconds between the ball leaving the bowler’s hand and it reaching them. During this time, keepers have to react to the ball deviating in the air, then off the pitch, and then taking the batsman’s edge, or ricocheting off their pads. Standing up, keepers must anticipate what the ball will do before it reaches them. Keepers standing up to the stumps for 80mph bowlers appears to be much more than a fad.

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