Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Southwell
- Football, FA Cup fifth round weekend then the Champions League last sixteen next Midweek
- Cricket, the Champions trophy continues including South Africa v England in Karachi
- Golf, The Arnold Palmer Invitational on the USPGA and the Joburg Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells
2025 Cheltenham Festival
Starts on Tuesday 11th March, still time to subscribe to Neil Channing’s race by race coverage over the four days at HERE for £199
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Free Tip Champions Trophy Cricket: South Africa v England Karachi Saturday 9am GMT start The Champions Trophy has reached the final block of pool games over the weekend and following successive losses to Australia and Afghanistan England are already out of the tournament. The situation at the top of the pool is interesting for South Africa following the washout of the Australia game in mid-week. Because they beat Afghanistan comfortably first up, they have a big net run rate advantage over Australia ahead of the final games (2.14 v 0.47). There is a huge incentive to win the pool, and in so doing avoid the (probable) trip to Dubai for a semi-final against India. Although Pakistan are hosting the competition and the team that has the best home advantage is India with the Dubai pitches worn following the recent conclusion of the ILT20 tournament at the same venue and where India can play three top class spinners and have five to choose from in their squad. A reminder that because of India-Pakistan politics India will play throughout in Dubai, including the final if they make it. A strong argument that the tournament lacks sporting integrity, certainly, but it’s no surprise they are strong outright favourites even ahead of their New Zealand game on Friday. (India 11/8, Australia 7/2 New Zealand 4/1 South Africa 4/1 Afghanistan 28/1) South Africa will look to win well here, to most likely stay in Pakistan for a semi against New Zealand. The other semi-finalist will come from the winner of the Australia-Afghanistan game. England's results in men's white-ball cricket this year are played ten lost 9, they were thrashed in India a month ago and have now under-performed in Pakistan. They’ve won three and lost eleven of their last fourteen games against Full Member Nations at global tournaments. Surely game over for Jos Buttler's captaincy. The selection strategy has been muddled, with the firm preference for raw pace. Is there really any possibility of winning a major trophy in Asia with one front line spinner in the squad? In 2025 games alone, a seven-game sample size in Asian conditions, England’s bowlers have had their worst economy rate in over three years. Against Australia England’s quicks went at a combined 8.5 runs an over. Against Afghanistan, a far less powerful batting side 28 overs of pace went for 186 runs at just under 7 an over. Having conceded the highest successful ruin chase in an ICC tournament agaisnt Australia a week ago, they allowed 113 runs in the final ten overs against Afghanistan. Archer and Wood are excellent bowlers, but there has been no “horses for courses” selection to support Adil Rashid (the excellent spin all-rounder Liam Dawson from Hampshire perhaps, or a left arm seamer in Sam Curran to break up the right arm fast battery) instead depending on a combination of Joe Root and Liam Livingstone to fiddle 10 of the 50 overs. All that said, England might be alighting on a more reasonable 11 when it is too late. Brydon Carse is injured and Rehan Ahmed has been called up. Mark Wood is an injury doubt too. The game is being played in Karachi, a flat track so far in the tournament. South Africa scored 315 here in their first game against Afghanistan, New Zealand opened the tournament with 320 against Pakistan. It’s tricky to see a potential England bowling attack of Archer, Atkinson/Mahmood, Overton, Rashid and Ahmed restricting a powerful South African batting line up here and notwithstanding the batting excellence of Joe Root and the potential for any of Harry Brook, Buttler, Duckett etc to go big it is the bowling line up that appears to be the weakness in these conditions. England have two of the three top run scorers in the tournament, after all. Given the very different motivations here, I priced South Africa up as firm favourites. I then checked and saw 4/5 South Africa England Evens in most places. The 8/11 South Africa England 11/10 at Betfred is an outlier but seems more sensible to me. Rather than look at player markets, I’ll keep it simple. 20 points South Africa to beat England at 4/5 widely available. |
Hundreds and Thousands
The England and Wales Cricket Board has sold its 49% stake in each of the eight Hundred teams.
Surrey began the sales and negotiated a £60m price with the owners of Mumbai Indians for a 49% stake in Oval Invincibles, the county retaining the 51% share given to them by the ECB.
That was followed by three similar deals. Warwickshire agreed a 49% sale of Birmingham Phoenix to Birmingham City owners Knighthead Capital and Glamorgan sold the same stake in Welsh Fire to IT entrepreneur Sanjay Govil for £40m.
In between, a price of £145m for 49% of Lord's-based London Spirit was agreed between Marylebone Cricket Club and a Silicon Valley consortium of tech investors including from Adobe and Google. The size of that deal confounded expectations.
Manchester Originals then became the second Hundred franchise to partner with an Indian Premier League team after Lancashire agreed a deal with RPSG group, owners of the Lucknow Super Giants, putting a total value of £116m on the Originals. They agreed to take a 70% share in the Originals, meaning Lancashire have become the first host to hand over a controlling stake.
Cash-strapped Yorkshire then became the first county to sell the entire stake in their Hundred side selling the Northern Superchargers to Sunrisers Hyderabad for £100.5m. Yorkshire are in line for more than £43m from the 100% sale, and a windfall of more than £60m from the Hundred sale overall which should mean they write off their debts entirely. Yorkshire have been in deep financial trouble in recent years, exacerbated by the racism crisis that engulfed the county.
Chelsea owner Todd Boehly then bought a 49% stake in the Trent Rockets, the franchise valued at £80m. Southampton based Southern Brave were sold last, a unique case as their controlling county Hampshire are owned by GMR the Indian co-owner of the Delhi Capitals.
The sale of shares in the Hundred teams gives a windfall of £470m to the English game with a valuation of the franchises of £975m. IPL owners concluded by buying stakes in 4 of the 8 teams.
The winning bidders are now in a six-week period of exclusivity with the host venue and ECB to work out the details. The 2025 Hundred will largely be unaffected but the 2026 edition is likely to look and feel markedly different, including in the branding and names of teams.
The proceeds from the first 10% of the ECB’s stakes will go to the recreational game, the remaining 90% of the ECB’s share will be split 19% ways to the 18 counties plus the MCC. The first £275m will be split equally 19 ways, the next £150m will be split only between non-hosts, anything above that split 19 ways again.
If the hosts sell any of their 51%, such as Lancashire, they keep the majority of the proceeds, with 10% going to the recreational game and 10% spread between the other counties.
The owners of Chennai Super Kings and Kolkata Knights Riders, two of the most significant IPL teams who have also popped up in franchise leagues elsewhere, withdrew. This stems from a belief that the Hundred is over-priced and frustration with an ECB sales process.
This is a one-off payment. For the non-hosts, this is it. But if you're a host you stand to benefit for a long time. Money will continue to flow into the top of the game. What supporters want for the Hundred may not be to the benefit of English cricket. The ECB say there are checks and balances but if investors aren't getting the return they want, they could, insist on an expansion of the Hundred, or the abolition of the Blast.
The real measure of success will be lower down. If, in 20 years, the non-host counties and the recreational game are thriving, great. But if not, English cricket structure including the number of first class counties likely to have changed forever. It sets the game in this country on a radically different path one where the market rather than tradition will dictate terms.
What is in it for the technology investors? Cricket lends itself to digital delivery but its exploitation of digital rights has been limited
Cricket can embrace gaming and more technology within the playing of the game and potentially create handheld experiences for fans watching the game. Cricket is a sport which has 2.5 billion followers and is the only game that can deliver huge South Asian market potential to the big technology giants Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Google.
Because football is so huge here, drowning out most other sports, we sometimes forget how popular the sport is in other parts of the world. India, obviously, with its billion-plus population, accounts for a huge share of this, and as a result cricket is said to be the world’s second-most popular sport, and growing.
One of the aspects that makes sports franchises so valuable is their ability to generate what marketeers call ‘first party data’. As concerns about data privacy grow, there is an irreversible trend towards consumers (fans) owning their data. One of the most ironic aspects of the rise of Big Tech (Google, Facebook etc) has been that their value has almost entirely been created by consumers’ unconscious willingness to give away their data for nothing. As this changes, brands, apps and companies that can access that data (with the consumer’s permission) will grow in value. By inference, sports franchises’ value will grow too.
PwC estimate that in the next decade sports-related values will grow by 6-7%, turbo-charged by the rapid advance in women’s sports which are expected to grow by 30% in value in the medium term. This explains the furious bidding for London Spirit, and its owners MCC/Lord’s. It is still the best known ‘brand’ in cricket.
As trade barriers go up, conversely globalisation is accelerating within sport. The advance of franchise competitions will come at the expense of bilateral international cricket (ICC events will still resonate) and some of these franchises now have interests spread across the globe, positioned for that future. The chance to invest here is part of that trend.
The ECB CEO has said that Hundred sale has the capacity to recapitalise the county game for the next 20-25 years. Although the 11 non-host counties stand to each make about £25million out of the sale, it comes at a price: in the long term, their annual “handouts” from the ECB, which have been their lifeblood for so long, are set to fall. With time, some counties may look back on this moment as when they got a golden handshake and the beginning of the end of an 18 county professional game.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Southwell
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations including England v Scotland
- Cricket, the Champions trophy continues including England v Australia in Lahore
- Golf, The Cognizant Classic on the USPGA and the South African Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Chile, Dubai and Mexico
2025 Cheltenham Festival
Starts on Tuesday 11th March, still time to subscribe to Neil Channing’s race by race coverage over the four days at HERE for £199
Free Tip
Six Nations England v Scotland Saturday 4.45pm
England have had the toughest start to a Six Nations possible and creditably only lost by five points in Dublin and then beat France at home by a point, which should stand them in good stead for easier games to come.
Scotland have won the Calcutta cup for the last four seasons and will be a good test of whether England are continuing on the right tack before Italy and Wales to come at the end of the Championship.
It has to be said that England were flattered in beating France, who made 27 handling errors and fluffed three final scoring passes. Without those mistakes the outcome would have been more as expected. France manipulated England’s defence and got round the edge repeatedly with the wingers scoring three tries.
There were undoubtedly positives though, notably Curry and Earl at the breakdown and with Fin Smith at 10 there was a structure and a strategy to the attacking game in contrast to the off-the-cuff approach often adopted with Marcus Smith at 10. England played straighter and more directly than they’ve done for a long time.
According to Opta stats England have beaten 30 or more defenders in 7 matches against Tier 1 opponents in the last 15 years, 2 out of these 7 games have been in this Six Nations.
England’s bench, with over 200 caps combined, was a big improvement on that in Dublin and made a real difference, vital for a side that has struggled in the last twenty minutes of games for over six months.
Scotland were smashed up front by Ireland who applied pressure and then more pressure on the Scotland half-backs with 80% possession. Unlucky to lose Russell and Graham to injury in the first half Scotland were on the back foot for much of the game and in those circumstances it’s difficult to maintain composure and accuracy, as conceding 12 penalties showed.
Scotland are loaded with individual excellence and firepower in wide areas but they’ll need to establish a better platform against England. They know that their flanker Rory Darge will be highly competitive at the breakdown and that England won’t have quite intensity of Ireland over 80 minutes but also that their bench will lack the impact of England’s.
Against France, England prevailed without ever shutting down French attacking avenues. On another day this would (and should) have cost them the game. Now they have to work on breaking down Scotland at source and making Finn Russell’s life difficult. If they do, winning by a score plus as the -8.5-point handicap quote implies is a probability. However the usual route to Scotland success against England is via the varied kicking of Russell, and here he will be moving around a player playing out of position, Marcus Smith at full back. Its very difficult to cover all the space. Scotland may not win, but getting 8.5 points is the better option here.
11 points Scotland +8.5 points at 10/11 generally
Running up the hill
Now the dust has settled on the NFL season time to reflect to digest what happened with running backs.
For years backing ageing running backs on new teams has been an easy-to-avoid landmine. This year, three of the top-five running backs were Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs and their performance in their sixth year or beyond years in the NFL were all historical outliers.
Do we chalk it up as a fluke? Or do we kick ourselves for not taking advantage more of these performances through the season? I lean toward the latter.
All of these running backs were going from bottom-tier offenses to top-tier offenses and they all remained healthy in 2024. The Eagles and Ravens in particular were the two top ranked rushing offenses in the league, a huge difference from running on the Giants and Titans for Barkley and Henry in previous seasons.
That said the balance between offensive and defensive strategies in the NFL is always a cyclical one. In recent years defenses have employed two-high defensive shells with both safeties held back to support cornerbacks in the passing game and limit explosive plays. Running against light boxes up front, the good running games made hay.
Logically the success of running games in 2024 should see more defensive run support in 2005, creating one on ones outside again. Perhaps we should expect the wide receiver position to bounce back in 2025.
That said there is also a significant takeaway from 2024 which is a shift towards more bell cow usage for the best running backs, as opposed to a majority of teams playing with running back committees in 2017-23.
Between 2017 and 2023, the NFL averaged 6.7 players a season over 290 touches. The highest seasons were nine in 2017 and 2019, while the fewest was four in 2021. In 2024, 13 backs went over 290 touches. For example James Conner finished fifth in yards per game. His number would have tied Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon for 8th in 2024.
Betting on older veterans changing to better teams was an edge in 2024 although in betting terms it soon disappeared, with the likes of Barkley and Henry 1-2 anytime touchdown scorer most weeks and quoted at over/under 100+ rushing yards.
Perhaps, because of that lack of value and potential switches in defensive strategy the secret in 2025 will be to identify talented rookie running backs drafted into good situations. Fortunately the 2025 rookie running back class looks an exceptional one with over a dozen likely to be selected in the first three or four rounds and potential starters in year one in the NFL.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Southwell.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Newcastle United
- Cricket, the Champions Trophy in Pakistan begins next weekend
- Golf, The Mexico Open on the USPGA and the Kenya Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Rio and Qatar
2025 Cheltenham Festival
Starts on 11th March, subscribe to Neil Channing’s race by race coverage over the four days HERE for £199
Free Tip
Cricket: 2025 ICC Champions Trophy
The 2025 ICC Champions Trophy will be the ninth edition of the tournament for the eight top-ranked ODI teams in the world. It will be hosted by Pakistan and the UAE from next Wednesday until 9th March. Pakistan are the defending champions, having won the previous edition back in 2017.
The tournament has been dogged by controversy with India refusing to play in Pakistan. Such is the might of the BCCI that rather than remove them from the competition the ICC arranged a compromise where India will play their matches in the Middle East. The ICC board confirmed that India and Pakistan matches hosted by either country at ICC events between 2025-27 would be played at a neutral venue. This will therefore also apply the 2026 T20 World Cup to be hosted by India and Sri Lanka.
Eight qualified teams are divided into two groups of four, will play against the three teams in their respective group for a total of twelve matches and the top two teams in each group will advance to the knockout stage, two semi-finals and a final.
That this is the first Champions Trophy since 2017 tells a story of the marginalisation of the ODI format worldwide in the face of the expansion of T10-T20 and Hundred franchise cricket globally in the last five years.
Many of the major sides come into this tournament very under-cooked in the format. Whether it is the three-match India-England series recently, Australia's matches against Sri Lanka after their two-Test series or even the tri-series between Pakistan, South Africa and New Zealand, teams are scrambling to find some 50-over rhythm with late preparation before the tournament starts.
People will undoubtedly point to England's lack of domestic List A cricket with their top players and every member of their squad not playing in the One-Day Cup last summer due to its clash with The Hundred. India and Australia, the last two World Cup finalists in the format, similarly do not play a lot of the format but the marginalisation is at its most acute in England. We were World Champions in a format and that format got downgraded. Now we have a format that isn't recognised on the international scene that our best players play instead.
India only managed three ODIs last year, all of which occurred in the same series against Sri Lanka. Their most recent batting debutant Jaiswal played his first 50-over contest since 2022 in February. England have won only 4 of 13 men’s ODIs they’ve played since the 2023 World Cup.
There are nuances in the ODI format that need to be practiced and come with experience. There is time to build an innings rather than in a 20 over thrash, and the accepted convention is that sides try to double their 30 over score batting in the last 20 overs of an ODI. Teams can only do that if they head to the back end of the innings with wickets in hand.
There has been a global lull in 50-over cricket after the excitement of a World Cup in 2023. The number of ODIs dropped from 217 in 2023 to 103 in 2024.
It makes the upcoming Champions Trophy feel a bit like a lottery and suggests the tournament will test which country can adapt quickly. This is especially the case as it is a short event. The winning team will only play five games, four of the eight teams will only play three. In betting terms, this feels like fertile territory for shocks and decent odds ante-post value opposing shorter priced teams.
Outright odds for the tournament are:
India 2/1
Australia 15/4
England 6/1
South Africa 13/2
Pakistan 7/1
New Zealand 8/1
Afghanistan 33/1
Bangladesh 66/1
Note that India, despite the loss of Bumrah through injury, now have a major advantage that probably justifies favouritism on its own. Whilst every other team will travel across Pakistan having to adapt from Lahore to Karachi to Rawalpindi, India play all their matches, including the final if they make it, in Dubai where they can adapt to conditions, optimise their line up quickly and minimise travel.
Odds for the two groups are:
A
India 4/7
Pakistan 4/1
New Zealand 9/2
Bangladesh 33/1
B
Australia 6/4
England 13/5
South Africa 11/4
Afghanistan 9/1
Just choosing one particular long shot angle, let’s look at Afghanistan.
England who would be just about the last side I would consider backing in a sub-continent global tournament (weakness against spin, inexperience in the format) meet Afghanistan in Group B. With the top two going through in a section also comprising Australia and South Africa, Afghanistan is the only Asian side in the group.
This is Afghanistan's best format. Beating England and South Africa is very possible. They beat England in India in the 2023 World Cup and they won 2 of 3 matches against South Africa in Sharjah last September.
Afghanistan have Rashid Khan leading their deep spin attack and in a group with the three non-Asian teams this could be a big advantage on flat wickets in Karachi, where they meet South Africa, and Lahore playing England.
Afghanistan are the second-most economical bowling group in the world in the last 12 months, beaten only by India. In the batting line-up they can struggle for power in T20s but this matters less in ODIs. On good batting surfaces they can at least be competitive.
South Africa have lost fast bowlers Gerald Coetzee and Anrich Nortje to injury. For Australia the “big three” bowlers Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood are out too.
33-1 to win it is probably a step or two too far for the Afghans, and the risk of meeting India in the semi-final means the same probably applies to the 14-1 to make the final but there is a market to reach the semi-finals. Prices as follows:
India 1/5
Australis 2/7
Pakistan 4/5
South Africa, New Zealand, England 10/11
Afghanistan 7/2
Bangladesh 5/1
I like the 7/2 a lot and would have them making the semis ahead of England and possibly South Africa. Hoping and expecting the pitches to be as flat and low as possible.
For the outright, as is often the case New Zealand are unfashionable and a backable 8/1 each-way. They have got a balanced team with several game changing players, specifically players who know how to play effectively in Pakistani conditions. I would have them favourites to get out of Pool A alongside India.
20 points Afghanistan to make the semi-finals 7/2 William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
15 points each way (1/2 1,2) New Zealand to win at 8/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, Betfred
Objection
English players are seeking clarity from the ECB over whether they will be granted No-Objection Certificates (NOCs) after they were signed to play in the Pakistan Super League.
Tom Kohler-Cadmore, Sam Billings, Tom Curran, James Vince, Chris Jordan and David Willey were either drafted or retained. The PSL has moved into an April-May window for 2025, meaning it will clash with the start of the English season for the first time.
Players reacted very negatively last November when the ECB announced a new policy on NOCs, which chief executive Richard Gould said was designed to "defend our game". The Professional Cricketers' Association (PCA) said that their sense of "genuine collaboration" with the ECB had vanished.
The new policy will see players denied NOCs for all overseas leagues that take place during the English summer, including the PSL, and the Caribbean and USA leagues with the notable exception of the IPL. Players on white-ball contracts with their counties will be granted NOCs for competitions that do not clash with the T20 Blast or the Hundred.
The ECB initially planned to block players with any provision for red-ball appearances from missing County Championship fixtures to play overseas but have since softened their stance after pressure from players, their agents and the PCA.
In the case of the PSL this will mean players will be eligible for NOCs if they are on white-ball contracts, or if they choose to re-negotiate existing multi-format deals after the draft.
James Vince was on an all-format contract and has now stepped down as Hampshire's club captain and will not play in the County Championship this year and expects "more and more" English players to follow suit. He has stated that the ECB is driving players away from first-class cricket and towards the franchise T20 circuit and that the six drafted English players would have been a much bigger number if not for franchises' fears about their availability. Six players with England central contracts registered themselves for the draft but were marked as "unavailable" on a longlist sent to franchises after the ECB clarified it would not grant them NOCs. They included Jonny Bairstow and Adil Rashid.
Vince has instead signed a white-ball county contract, while Kohler-Cadmore is set to renegotiate his Somerset deal along similar lines.
Some players have expressed their frustrations that the IPL is being treated as an outlier, with English players granted NOCs for that tournament regardless of their contractual situation, related to relationships between the ECB and the BCCI despite the PSL being a shorter competition. If you're going to play in that you're probably missing less domestic cricket than if you're going to the IPL.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Football, the FA Cup Fourth Round.
- NFL, the Super Bowl on Sunday
- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, England’s ODI Series in India continues in Cuttack
- Golf, The Genesis Invitational on the USPGA
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Delray Beach, Marseille and Buenos Aires
Super Bowl LIX - Sunday 9th February 2025 - New Orleans
Tighty and Neil have found 16 great bets on this Sunday's Super Bowl.
Super Bowl LIX £25 available here
Free Tip
The 2025 Six Nations Week 2
England v France Saturday 4.45pm
England have now lost 7 of their last 9 games, the two wins coming against Japan home and away.
In Ireland their eleventh loss against a top four ranked side in twelve attempts during Steve Borthwick’s tenure contained a remarkable statistic. In 10 of those games England were ahead after 50 minutes.
The five-point loss in Ireland therefore followed a familiar pattern. England led 10-5 at half time, but the defence fell away from the third Quarter onwards and three defensive mistakes and missed tackles saw them losing 27-10 with ten minutes to go.
It was one of the most frustrating 30 minutes of English carelessness witnessed in a long time, and that is a high bar to clear particularly after similar Autumn series performances. England remain an inexperienced team by International standards, in addition many players are not going deep in European competitions and as yet there is little evidence of being able to close a tight game out, or that the bench can make a major impact when required.
There were some encouraging aspects. England once more showed their attacking potential and in the first half their rush defense including three sevens in the back-row suffocated the Irish backs, creating chaos around the breakdown and forcing Ireland to play behind themselves.
In the attacking game England beat 33 Ireland defenders and have only exceeded that in a game on three occasions over the last fifteen years according to Opta. Scoring two tries in the last ten minutes and adding a bonus point to eventually lose only 27-22 just added to a sense of frustration that the team hadn’t put together a complete 80-minute performance again.
This Six Nations schedule doesn’t get much easier, home underdogs this week and then playing Scotland in the third round. They could easily have three losses headed to the (easier) Wales and Italy fixtures to finish the championship. The pressure will really be on the Head Coach at that point.
For this game changes see Fin Smith at 10, Marcus Smith at full back in a new play-making axis (waiting for Heaven knows we're miserable now and Panic on the streets of London as headlines if it goes badly...) and Tom Willis start in the back row, needing to counter the big French forwards rather than play three open-sides which they did in Ireland.
France had a disjointed Championship last year without Dupont they lost in in Ireland and were held to a draw by Italy. They since beat Argentina and New Zealand in the autumn and opened this Six Nations with a 43-0 win over Wales.
Missing Fickou and Ollivon injured for the season and Ntamack suspended for this game they have real strength in depth derived from the strength of the Top 14 domestic league and with many of the all-conquering U20 side of recent years now reaching the senior team.
Last weekend wasn’t just the clinical performance that helps going into this week but they were able to rest Dupont for a large chunk of the second period. They also have an extra day’s recovery ahead of this weekend with the excellent winger Penaud returning too.
The spread here is France -5.5 points. I would contend that for most people who have watched both sides over last year a spread that had France at least a score better was reasonable.
For a more speculative option England HT-France FT given England’s recent marked trend to start great and fade is 6/1.
Against Ireland when England did fall off their first half standards the main defensive weaknesses were out wide. Penaud is back from injury, probably the top winger in world rugby with 36 tries in 53 caps Between them the lethal Penaud and Bielle-Biarrey have 33 tries in 29 games this season and both are odds-against in places anytime try scorer. If I can see a market before the weekend, probably with Bet365, interested in either to score 2+ too.
22 points France -5 points at 10/11 Bet365, SkyBet, -5.5 point most other places
Runner Runner
This season the NFL finished with 16 1,000-yard rushers, with six players totaling at least 300 rushing attempts. 13 running backs had at least 10 rushing touchdowns.
The renaissance started in the off-season when teams spent heavily in free agency on Saquon Barkley (who finished 100 yards shy of tying the NFL's single-season rushing record), Derrick Henry (1,921 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and Josh Jacobs (1,329 rushing yards, 15 TDs). The trio combined for three rushing titles before 2024, but the football world questioned whether the veterans would be worth the hefty investment based on the so-called devaluation of the position in NFL circles.
Given their individual and collective success and that of Joe MixonJ(1,016 rush yards, 11 touchdowns in 14 games), it is easy to surmise the running back position is alive and well with a group of old heads crushing it as lead backs. The veterans displayed the skill and stamina to handle a heavy workload (20-plus carries), while also displaying the big-play potential every offensive coordinator covets.
Despite the success of the veterans, the youngsters have also re-established running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving sparked their respective teams with their playmaker skills. Gibbs and Robinson, in particular, validated their status as first-round draft picks with their spectacular playmaking ability.
Gibbs finished with 20 total touchdowns, showcasing explosive skills as a runner-receiver and versatile playmaker for the Lions. He has been a big play machine with 13 runs of at least 20 yards and six receptions of 20-plus yards. Robinson posted 1,887 scrimmage yards and 17 explosive plays (14 rushing and three receiving).
With few defenses featuring linebackers and/or safeties with the speed and athleticism to match Gibbs or Robinson out of the backfield, the opportunity to feature a "cheat code" player as the No.1 option appeals to play callers intent on utilising a balanced but explosive approach.
Considering how defensive coordinators adapted the league's pass-centric shift by featuring more light boxes with two-deep safeties, the re-emergence of the running backs as primary playmakers is part of a trend designed to counter defensive tactics prevalent throughout the league.
Looking ahead to the 2025 offseason, the return of the running back could be in full effect with a draft class loaded with players headed by Ashton Jeanty. As an undisputable first-round prospect with top-10 talent, Jeanty could be the next star running back to take the league by storm.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £66,502 All bets have an ROI +2.75%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £70,650, a 1666% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the start of the Six Nations
- Cricket, England’s T20 Series in India continues in Mumbai
- Golf, The Phoenix Open on the USPGA and the Bahrain Championship
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Dallas and Rotterdam
Free Tip
The 2025 Six Nations
The 2025 Six Nations starts tonight with France hosting Wales in Paris.
Ireland are looking to be the first team to win three consecutive outright championships and are under 2/1 to retain their title. Six teams have previously gone for three in a row, and none have completed the treble most recently England in 2018 finished fifth
Following their Grand Slam in 2023 Ireland lost at Twickenham last year. Thomas Ramos the French full-back was the top points scorer whilst Van Der Merwe and Sheehan finished joint top try-scorers with five each. There was a recovery from Italy with two wins and a draw and Wales finished with the wooden spoon following five defeats.
Odds this year (with world ranking in brackets) are as follows:
France (4) 7/4
Ireland (2) 15/8
England (7) 9/2
Scotland (6) 7/1
Wales (11) 50/1
Italy (10) 150/1
Fixtures alternate from one year to the next and this year the combination of fixtures, particularly seeing France travelling to Dublin means that “No Grand Slam” is an Even money. Ireland is 7/2 for a Grand Slam.
Once again in a Championship where several teams may end with 4-1/3-2 records bonus points are going to be an important determinant of the final table. A bonus point is awarded to a team that scores four or more tries or loses by seven points or fewer. If a team scores four or more tries, and loses by seven points or fewer, they are awarded both bonus points. Attacking rugby is key, generally favouring France.
A few other markets and prices to note.
Ireland are 6/4 to win the Triple Crown, No Triple Crown 15/8. Ireland’s Round Three trip to Scotland will be the key determinant in that market. 15/8 looks the value.
Wales are 10/11 to finish bottom, Italy 11/10, Italy host Wales in Round 2. 10/11 looks a decent price.
An added source of variance this year is the introduction of the 20-minute red card. Last year the tournament had two red cards, both French players, since when safety regulations have tightened further particular in the area of the tackle. Over 3.5 red cards is an Even money underdog this year, which struck me as interesting. This market could easily be the wrong way round.
A quick look at each team:
France: have to go to Ireland and England, so a Grand Slam is probably not likely. Incredible talent behind the scrum: not just the great Antoine Dupont but the likes of Damian Penaud, Romain Ntamack and Louis Bielle-Biarrey. They have four or five genuine game-breakers capable of those X-factor moments. They will undoubtedly score bonus points, so, allied to their ability to be the most physical team, that stands them apart from the others.
Ireland lost to New Zealand by 10 points in the Autumn and narrowly beat Argentina and Australia. Temporarily coached by Simon Easterby with Andy Farrell coaching the Lions in the summer. Possibly not quite the force of 2023-24.
England and Scotland have three games at home but England have to go to Dublin this weekend. Scotland have to go to Paris end of tournament.
England had a poor Autumn, losing to New Zealand, South Africa and Australia (conceding 42 points) undoing the promising end to the 2024 Six Nations (scoring 31 points in Paris). England’s defence in the Autumn was all over the place, late coaching changes a particular impact. Expect them to more in sync now. The lack of a creative midfield/15 likely to be an issue against the best teams.
Scotland only had two wins last year, another disappointment for a talented side. They beat Australia by 14 points in the autumn. Losing Captain Tuipulotu at the start of the tournament is a big loss but they could easily have five Lions back-line starters in Finn Russell, Huw Jones, Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe (as well as Tuipulotu )
Wales have lost 13 games in a row, and the domestic game is in shambles. In a rebuild after a dozen major retirements in the last two years following the Rugby World Cup. More than 1 win would be a major surprise
Italy (lots of young talented players coming out of a good academy system, much improved domestic teams in the URC/Europe) drew in Paris last year and beat Scotland and Wales. Italy were a little bit underwhelming in the autumn but you look at Benetton’s win over La Rochelle in the Champions Cup and it bodes well.
I wanted to end with a look at the top try-scorer market. The attraction here is the each-way terms on offer. Some firms are Six places (one-fifth the odds), some five places (one-quarter the odds)
This is the top of the market as I write:
Bielle-Barrey 9/2
Penaud 6/1 (injured for the first game, Wales at home which is a big miss for try potential)
Lowe 9/1
Van Der Merwe 10/1
Graham 10/1
Sheehan 12/1
Dupont 18/1
I can’t disagree with the French wingers, both from Bordeaux, at the head of the market. Bielle-Barrey if he were 5/1 evens the place would be a clear bet.
With five or six each way places to go at further down the list and I wanted to suggest a couple of players to have for the next two months. In any Six Nations there is injury variance, but as far as possible we can minimise rotational variance.
- Darcy Graham has 1 try less than Van Der Merwe in two less caps (29 in 42). Great finisher, and the third Scottish winger Kyle Steyn is injured.
- Ireland’s hooker Dan Sheehan is just back from suffering an ACL injury against the Springboks last July. Clear first choice, ten tries for Ireland already and at the end of a lot of the Ireland mauls and drives close to the line.
12 Points each way Darcy Graham Six Nations top try scorer at 10/1 with Bet365/Betfred (1/4, 5 places) William Hill (1/5, 6 places)
8 Points each way Dan Sheehan Six Nations top try scorer at 16/1 SkyBet (1/5, 6 places) if not 12/1 Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral (1/4, 5 places) and William Hill (1/5, 6 places)
All Hail
The Kansas City Chiefs became the third team in NFL history to post three 14-win campaigns in a five-year span joining the San Francisco 49ers of the late 1980s and early 1990s and the New England Patriots of the 2000s. They have 66 wins over that period, giving them more than the other two over five years. Next week they go for an unprecedented third Superbowl in a row
Our coverage can be found HERE for £25 from next Thursday
This has been a historic period for the Chiefs and it all starts with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and after that, Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. The front office deserves credit for building a sustainable model around them that consistently features a deep supporting cast.
Over this particular five-year period (from 2020 to ’24), the Chiefs are actually only 18th in the NFL in cash spending at $1.15bn. That’s more than $200m behind the league-leading Cleveland Browns who spent $1.36bn over the same stretch. The 49ers, Eagles, Saints, Dolphins and Bills are all at least $100m ahead of the Chiefs, too.
The Browns, Niners, Eagles, Saints, Dolphins and Bills have been aggressive in spending cash over cap, pushing cap charges into the future to facilitate more cash spending now. Other teams, like the Chiefs, take a different approach, whether it’s based on budgets or philosophy, and try to live within real contracts to avoid piling up the cap debt that eventually necessitates a reckoning, which generally comes in the form of a reset year.
Mahomes and DeAndre Hopkins’s contracts are the only ones on the team’s books with void years, the mechanism that buries cap charges in phony seasons at the end of a contract, and Hopkins’s contract was one they traded for. While Mahomes’s deal has been heavily leveraged, the Chiefs know he’s going to be on the team for a long time to come, which gives them the flexibility to push that money out.
Of course, to make this work, the Chiefs have to walk a narrower path with veteran pick-ups and nail their draft picks to get key positions filled under cost control. The success of their approach is evidenced in the team’s starting lineup. Seventeen of the team’s 22 starters are homegrown. The result is that there’s no huge bill coming due, and the team has the flexibility to add a player like Hopkins to its roster.
Of course, it goes without saying that they are lucky to have Mahomes and Reid to build around. But Reid and Mahomes are lucky to have them, too.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £66,502 All bets have an ROI +2.75%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £70,650, a 1666% increase.
