Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Salisbury, Windsor and York and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia, the second Test in Melbourne.
- Cricket, England v India Fifth Test at the Oval next week
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa.
- Golf, The Wyndham Championship on the USPGA Tour
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package): Next Week.
We have just added the Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package) - 29th July - 2nd August 2025 to our website here
Free Tip
Australia v British Lions Second Test Melbourne Saturday 11am BST
In the first Test in Brisbane last weekend the Lions were 24-5 up after 50 minutes, not only with complete physical domination but with various Australia player combinations looking like complete strangers (Tom Lynagh and Jake Gordon at 9 and 10 played as if they’d met for the first time in the car park before kick-off) and having recommended Australia +10 (they started +12!) at that point it wasn’t the happiest of Saturday mornings from a financial perspective!
One point that wasn’t discussed much prior to the game was the sheer gulf in experience. Only four Lions had less than 30 caps, only four Wallabies had more than 40 caps.
In the first half Australia were simply destroyed on the gain-line, going round the corner and being sent back from where they came. In such circumstances there is very little that a cerebral coach like Joe Schmidt can do and it looked like the Lions would coast to a big win.
Then the substitute benches began to empty, Australia improved and the Lions fell off. Two Australia tries later they had won the second half 14-10 and finished by losing by 8 points without ever threatening to win
Once Tom Curry went off after a great performance in the Lions back-row Australia had much more space in which to work. As the Lions tired and lost the Curry influence, so Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight in the Australian backrow kept trucking. The Lions looked leg weary and started to fall off collisions you’d expect them to dominate.
The Wallabies had a chance in the first Test, but unfortunately two things happened; the selection was poor and players that influence games were injured. In simple terms, both of these things can be changed up for the second Test. Ben Donaldson and Tate McDermott at 9 and 10 should be able to control the backline better with the broken field game that we saw in the last 20 minutes last weekend and give it a crack. In the forwards Will Skelton, Bobby Valetini and Dave Poerecki are back (with over 90 caps combined), all massively physical players. Furthermore there is a 6-2 bench to keep the physicality up later in the game.
The Pasifika team on Tuesday night gave them a blueprint of how to play, hugely physical and disruptive and these returning players make it easier for Australia to set that tone this week.
The aim will be to use them to get on the board and build scoreboard pressure. The Lions conceded 12 penalties under pressure last weekend. Valetini and Skelton should enable Australia to get more front-foot ball and provide Sua'ali'i with opportunities in attack.
The Lions coaches meanwhile have the experience of the last 30 minutes for this week. The biggest single contrast in the match was the relative finishing performances of the benches. Ronan Kelleher had an absolute shocker with his lineout. Four throws went awry, three of them completely mis-thrown, and that put continual pressure on the Lions in exit.
With only Bundee Aki and Will Stuart really adding anything for the Lions off the bench, there are a number of changes for Melbourne, five on the bench and three in the starting line-up, two enforced by injuries.
Finally looking at the weather apps, it could be a wet Melbourne this weekend (70% probability at kick-off time as I write).
Given all of this (Australia should improve with key players back, weather issues) I thought last week’s +10 and 7/2 Australia would move down a few spots, without challenging for a change of favourite.
Instead we find Australia +10.5 on the spread and 7/2 outright again (this time 46.5 points expected, three points lower than last week).
I feel compelled to back Australia again on value grounds, without at all thinking they are a great team but they shouldn’t be as bad again this week. I expect a one-score game.
15 points Australia +10.5 points at 10/11 generally.
Into the Void.
Last month the NFL commissioner Roger Goodell questioned the integrity of the NFL’s salary cap system stating that it was a priority for NFL owners going into the league’s next collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA will expire in March 2031.
NFL teams typically don’t guarantee the salaries of players beyond the first one or two years of veteran deals, in part because of the frequency of injuries in the sport and how much older professional football players are when they enter their second contracts. There’s no promise that a player signed in 2025 will be wanted by the team come 2027 in a league that turns over talent so quickly. Thus, a lot of the money NFL players receive in their veteran contracts comes in the form of a signing bonus, up-front money that is counted against the cap for the lifetime of a contract.
This worked well for the league up until the end of Drew Brees’ run with the Saints and Tom Brady’s run with the Patriots. In an effort to make title runs at the end of each of those quarterbacks’ careers, both of their teams learned how to use the NFL’s void year mechanism to take advantage of the current cap system.
A void year is essentially a way to stretch out a signing bonus to have it count on the cap in years where a player isn’t going to be under contract. For example, if you wanted to pay a player a $10 million bonus on a one-year contract, you previously would have had to account for all of that on the cap in the year that he was on your team. With void years, you can add on up to four extra seasons at the end of the deal, stretching the cap accounting of a one-year signing bonus to just one-fifth of the amount for that individual season.
Some viewed the Saints’ and Patriots’ strategy as taking a loan from their future teams, something that they’d eventually have to pay off.
Teams began to learn how to manipulate the salary cap with void years. In theory, the cap dollars will be due eventually, but there’s no limit on the “debt” a team can take by just perpetually pushing cap hits into future years.
The league never spent 5% over the salary cap in cash spending in any year from 2011 to 2019. Since 2020, though, cash spending has eclipsed the salary cap by more than that number every year, usually by around 10%.
Some teams have now made pushing cap hits into the future a full-blown strategy. The Eagles have constructed their roster for perpetual salary conversions up to the 2029 season, around the time when the NFL will have a new set of television (or streaming) contracts that will likely increase the salary cap more rapidly than the $25m per year pace that we’re seeing at the moment. So if the Eagles take on $20m of debt now, and that debt will be a smaller drop in the bucket come 2029, why should they just keep kicking the can forward? That is why NFL owners are worried.
Previously, the NFL’s parity model worked well. Between the draft, the salary cap and free agency, top teams were torn to shreds as they were unable to keep all of their star players together for long periods of time, which benefited rebuilding teams the most. With the ability to push cap dollars into future years, though, fewer of these star players are getting to market in free agency. Even the pool of veteran cap casualties has taken a hit for teams looking to add talent, as void years and salary conversions have allowed these players to remain on their clubs for an extra year or two.
So, how bad has the cash differential become in the NFL? According to Spotrac, the Browns have spent $401.3m more on players than their divisional rival, the Steelers since the start of the 2020 league year. That debt has been added to the team’s accounting in future years, but, again, there’s no due date to get cap neutral, so in theory, that money can continue to be kicked into the future in perpetuity.
While the Browns don’t make much of a case that spending equals winning, the next four teams behind them in 2020 to 2025 cash spending are a group of teams that have found success: the 49ers, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles.
Soon, many owners will have to decide whether it’s time to reset their cap situation or continue to push forward. I can understand why ownership groups who want to rebuild are questioning whether or not the same benefits that rebuilding teams used to receive in free agency even still exist in a league if void year and salary conversion manipulation is rampant. If those rebuilding teams do not have the same benefits they used to have, then deep-pocketed owners will benefit the most in this era. That’s where the “integrity” comment Goodell came from.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon and over the jumps at Cartmel and Market Rasen.
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia, the first Test in Brisbane.
- Cricket, England v India Third Test at Old Trafford next week.
- Golf, The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities on the USPGA Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Croatia, Kitzbuehel and Washington
We have just added the Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package) - 29th July - 2nd August 2025 to our website here.
Free Tip
Australia v the British Lions First Test, Brisbane, Saturday 11am BST.
Consensus thinking would be that the Lions are comfortable favourites to win this series and there has been a lot of chatter about a 3-0 series win in the lead up to the three Test series.
It’s certainly true that this is the easiest of the three Lions Tour venues, compared to World Champion South Africa and New Zealand. Australia’s current world ranking is 6th, compared to Ireland 3rd and England 5th the two countries who supply the bulk of the Test team.
It’s also true that Rugby Union in Australia is not in a great place and the financial weaknesses are such that no fewer than 50 Australian professional players are away making a living in Europe. I would say that seven of them would have been certain to meet the Lions in this first Test.
Gloom about the prospects of a competitive series intensified when Australia crept past Fiji 21-18 in their only warm-up game recently. However I wouldn’t overdo it. Australia almost certainly didn’t show many of their attacking strategies and above that didn’t attempt the aerial game at all, a part of the game where the Lions have struggled in their warm-up games and which should, for Joseph Sua'ali'i the centre particularly, a strength for Australia.
Australia coach Joe Schmidt is a smart operator though, I’m sure he will have a few surprises for this match.
The Lions build-up to the Tests has been unsatisfying. Lions’ administrators signed a contract with Rugby Australia that Wallabies players would be appearing against the Lions in the provincial games but this proved unenforceable, and the Lions have only faced weakened provincial teams on the way to this game after their initial loss to Argentina in Dublin.
These Lions are a young touring party full of good players but short of great players (and the arrival of Own Farrell three weeks in suggested a party that needed an experienced leader too) and although unbeaten in Australia have laboured through games at times with lots of mistakes ball-in-hand and in the aerial game.
A major factor has been the schedule which has seen play Wednesday, travel to a new city Thursday, run through Friday, play again Saturday, travel Sunday and repeat, which has appeared to a lead to a lack of cohesion. This has been the first week spent in situ since arriving Down Under.
From what we have seen the Lions scrum will be a strength, and they have struggled at the breakdown in every provincial game. The selection of a back-row of Beirne, Curry and Conan suggests the Lions will opt for directness and power, the selection over any of Morgan/Van De Flier/Pollock more traditional “on the floor” players a call many would disagree with.
Australia suffered a big loss through injury of likely starting 10 Noah Lolesio that leads to three-cap 22-year-old Tom Lynagh starting at ten, a bold call, but Australia could have been expected to bring at least four world class players to the game in back-rows Rob Valenti and Fraser McReight and centres Sua'ali'i and Len Ikitau. Then Valenti was ruled out this week too and mammoth second row Will Skelton was too.
Minus a big ball-carrier like Valenti I think Australia will target the Lions on the air and on the ground and could have picked two sevens/fetchers to disrupt Lions ball but instead have picked a big six making his debut to match the Lions approach.
I still believe this series will be tighter than many expect. Australia will be motivated underdogs at home, written off by many, and it’s the nature of a Test series for games to tighten up.
You wouldn’t know that from the prevailing market prices ahead of this first test though. The Lions are 1/4 and Australia up to 7/2 and +9.5, even +10 in a pace on the spread having been +7 at the beginning of the week then travelling through +8.5 midweek and onwards before the team news/Australia injury confirmations where its now +9.5/+10. The expected points total is 49.5.
I think for starters the series will be 2-1 either way. I think Australia +9.5 this weekend is reasonable bet, if we can get +10 in the run up to 11am Saturday then that's a key number and 7/2 outright is a value price though I’d be more confident if Lolesio and Valenti were in the team.
11 points Australia +10 points to win the first test at 10/11 Betfred (+9 or + 9.5 generally).
Down.
TV viewer numbers for Premier League matches dropped last season after two previous record-breaking years, due in part to a lack of a close title race or relegation battle.
Sky Sports viewing numbers were down 10% last season to be broadly in line with the 2021-22 campaign. TNT Sports’ Saturday 12.30pm kick-off showed a 5% drop on the 2023-24 season, and a 17% drop with the two full midweek rounds included.
The numbers were presented to clubs at their annual meeting in June. Clubs were told Liverpool’s title without a serious challenge from Arsenal or Manchester City meant viewer numbers dropped off particularly over the last six weeks of the season. Until then they had been close to the 2023-24 season.
The lack of a compelling relegation battle also affected interest towards the end of the campaign with Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton effectively guaranteed to go down a couple of months before the end of the season.
Next season will see even more live Premier League matches on TV when a new broadcast deal starts. Sky will show at least 215 top-flight matches live, up from 128, including all games moved to Sundays because of clubs’ involvement in European competitions.
TNT Sports will retain 52 games including the Saturday 12.30pm kick-offs and two midweek rounds. For the first time in six years, Amazon Prime will have no Premier League rights meaning there will be two rather than three subscriptions for viewers to pay.
Broadcasters hope that fact plus the extra number of matches (every game not kicking off during the Saturday afternoon blackout will be available live) will cut the number of people using pirate streams to watch games. Anecdotal evidence shows that some fans are frustrated by being unable to watch their teams’ matches via the broadcasters and seek out illegal streams instead.
The new Premier League TV deal is the first one to run over four years instead of three and is worth a total of £6.7billion, which includes £300million from the BBC for Match of the Day highlights.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia continues this weekend against an Invitation AU/NZ team in Adelaide.
- Golf, The Open Championship next week at Royal Portrush.
- Tennis, ATP Los Cabos, Swedish and Swiss Opens
We have just added the Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package) - 29th July - 2nd August 2025 to our website here.
Free Tip
Vitality T20 Blast Worcestershire Rapids v Leicestershire Foxes 2.30pm Sunday 13th July
Leicestershire, long one of county cricket’s basement sides, are one of the stories of the 2025 domestic season, miles clear at the top of Division Two of the County Championship. They are also still in contention for the knockout stages of the T20 Blast.
They won their first two games in the tournament and four of the first six in the North Group but recent results have slipped with only two wins in the last five matches, but importantly beat a side above them Northants on Thursday night to remain in touch with fourth place with three games to go.Worcestershireare in 6th with five wins from their twelve matches.
One of the factors that is key to this game is that it is being played at New Road in Worcester, famous for being sited on a flood plain and from which the club is looking to relocate at some stage. Pitches at New Road have been difficult across all competitions this summer, spring floods have led to limited preparation time and tricky conditions, notably variable bounce.
In this tournament first inning scores are 155,143, 159 and the outlier 201-5.
This could be an issue for Leicestershire whose T20 top six of Patel, Budinger, Shan Masood, Rehan Ahmed, Kimber and Cox have only made seven scores of 50+ in their eleven games.
In a potentially modest scoring match lets look at the performances of those individual batsmen in the Blast this season.
Budinger 329 runs at an average of 30, High score 56, strike rate 162, three fifties and 14 sixes in 54 boundaries.
Masood 234 at 26, High score (HS) 45* Strike rate SR) 130
Patel 192 at 17, HS 51 SR 136
Kimber 193 at 21, HS 51 SR 179 (12 sixes)
Rehan in just 7 matches 225 at 45, HS 64 SR 137
Budinger opens the batting, has the most runs at the highest average of any of the full-time players at the best strike rate.
The odds in the Leicestershire top batsman market are:
Shan Masood 3/1
Patel 100/30
Rehan 4/1
Budinger 9/2+
Kimber 5/1
Hill 13/2
Cox 8/1
In the context given above, Budinger looks a value price in an un-prolific line-up.
10 points Sol Budinger Top Leicestershire batsman at 19/5 with BetVictor, William Hill, 9/2 Bet365
Testing, testing.
England could play seven home Tests in 2027, the highest number in a summer since 2022, under plans being considered by the England & Wales Cricket Board.
The ECB is considering its home schedule for 2027 and what Test programme should be played before the five-match Ashes series. In 2019 and 2023, the last two home Ashes summers, England played a one-off Test against Ireland before the series.
England are now poised instead to play a two-match series against opponents before the next Ashes. The opponents have yet to be finalised, with Sri Lanka and West Indies two prime candidates. Both teams would be expected to be more competitive than Ireland in 2023, who were thrashed by 10 wickets at Lord’s.
Any decision about whether England will schedule seven home Test matches is interconnected with discussions about the 2027 World Test Championship final. England hosted the 2021, 2023 and 2025 finals. However there is a strong desire in India to host the 2027 final, and a feeling among many global administrators that it cannot always be held in England. Should the 2027 final be played in India, it could take place in late March, which would free up space in the English summer for an extra Test.
The ECB remains keen to host the World Test Championship final and many see it as the ideal location, given its climate and time-zone are best suited to the June slot it has occupied in its first three cycles.
England staged seven Test matches a summer for the bulk of the 2000-18 period. Seven home Tests were also scheduled for 2021, but India withdrew from the final Test – which was instead staged in 2022, ensuring that England played seven home Tests that year instead. But in the current Future Tours Programme, which covers the 2023-26 summers, England are playing only six home Tests each season.
Reintroducing seven-match home summers would be a strong indication of England’s commitment to the Test game at a time when the format is under threat.
Scheduling an extra Test in 2027 could also bring an extra high-profile game to a northern venue that summer. There has been widespread at the lack of any northern venues for the Ashes series in 2027. The five venues that have been awarded Tests against Australia that summer are Edgbaston, Lord’s, Trent Bridge, the Utilita Bowl and The Oval. Playing a two-match series prior to the 2027 Ashes could also have significant consequences for the World Test Championship. England have not reached the final in any of the three editions of the tournament.
England are effectively penalised for playing five-match series against both Australia and India in every cycle of the competition.
Conversely, South Africa qualified for this year’s final after not facing either Australia or England in the 2023-25 cycle. Under the current terms of the World Test Championship, each country plays three series at home and away over the cycle, with the two teams who acquire the highest percentage of points contested reaching the final.
If England played a two-match home series in 2027, they would play four multi-match series at home over the 2027-29 cycle. One of these would therefore not be part of the World Test Championship.
The 2027 Ashes could thus potentially not count towards the 2027-29 cycle, with Australia potentially being one of the two opponents that England did not meet in Test Championship clashes during that campaign.
Occasionally scheduling Ashes series outside the World Test Championship framework could potentially ensure a more equitable set of opponents among the nine competing sides.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown
- Cricket, England’s test series against India continues with the second Test at Lords next weekend
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia continues this weekend against the Waratahs in Sydney.
- Golf, The ISCO Championship in Louisville and the Scottish Open.
- Tennis, Wimbledon continues.
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package)
We have just added the Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full Package) - 29th July - 2nd August 2025 to the website here
Free Tip
Vitality T20 Blast North Group Durham v Notts 6.30pm Fri 4th July
After a break for a couple of rounds of County Championship matches (with the Kookaburra ball, by and large run fests) the second half of group matches in the T20 Blast begin this weekend.
In the North Group Durham were unheralded pre-season, 33-1 in ante-post markets but are currently 3rd with 5 wins and 3 defeats behind leaders Northants and (only on net run rate) Lancashire.
Notts are sixth with four wins from nine matches, still in with a shout of hitting the top four needed to make the knock-out stages with a run from this point onwards.
Durham’s strength in this format is their canny and experienced bowling attack. New Zealander Jimmy Neesham, seamer Ben Raine and spinner Nathan Sowter are all T20 specialists and up top is England seamer Matt Potts too.
So far in this tournament their figures are as follows:
Raine 7 matches 16 wickets at an average of 12, economy rate 7 runs per over.
Neesham 8 matches 14 wickets at 16, 8.3 economy.
Parkinson and Sowter the spinners 20 wickets in 16 overs at 18, economy rate 7.
The batting line-up is less robust, with combined only 5 fifties and a single hundred in their eight matches to date.
Returning to the bowling attack Ben Raine was injured in the Championship match earlier in the week at The Oval. He was hobbling when he came out to bat (at number 11) having left the field after ten overs bowled in the first innings. Yes I was the one who sat through Surrey making 820 over the first two days of the match. I expect him to miss the match.
In the Team bowler market prices are
Foulkes 5/2
Neesham 11/4
Potts 11/4
Sowter 3/1
Parkinson 100/30
Neesham is a veteran of 83 T20Is and has played in the Blast for six teams. So far in this Blast he has had innings with the following results:
3/34, 3/29, 2/31, 2/29 and 2/29 in 8 innings.
So he has been in contention in the Top bowler market whether outright or shared in more than half of the innings. With Raine most likely absent I think he should be favourite in this match.
10 points Jimmy Neesham Top Durham bowler 100/30 SkyBet, 11/4 Ladbrokes/Coral, 23/10 William Hill
Club world.
The inaugural Club World Championship in rugby will take place in Europe at the end of the 2027-28 season.
Plans for a 16-team global competition were approved before the Champions Cup final after at least five years of discussions. The new event will replace the knockout stage of the Champions Cup every four years.
The Premiership, United Rugby Championship and the Top 14 have agreed to move their domestic finals forward in 2028 to make room for a Club World Championship to be held as the climax to the season. Super Rugby Pacific will also adjust their season dates.
The 16 teams would comprise the eight qualifiers from the 2027-28 Champions Cup pool stage and the top seven in Super Rugby Pacific, which includes teams from New Zealand, Australia and Fiji, plus one invited Japanese team. The proposed format is four pools of four teams, with two semi-finals and a final.
The first two editions of the global tournament, in 2028 and 2032, would be held in Europe. The intention is to take the knockout games to a “destination venue” such as Barcelona.
The competition would slot in between the rescheduled domestic finals and the summer leg of the Nations Cup, the new biennial international competition that will begin in 2026.
The idea of a showdown between the champions of the north versus the champions of the south dates back to 1997, when the Auckland Blues played Brive. Rugby league’s World Club Challenge began in 1976 and FIFA’s Club World Cup was first contested in 2000.
Scheduling has always been a major stumbling block for rugby’s authorities. But the prospect of unlocking new revenue streams has persuaded the leagues to make it work.
The reputation of the Champions Cup has taken a dive in recent years. The format has been problematic and EPCR made a hash of negotiating a new television deal, turning down a £14m offer from TNT Sports and eventually signing with Premier Sports, a channel with a far smaller audience, for £6m.
The tournament is rescued every year by the drama and quality of the knock-out matches. The last four finals have been epic contests. Northampton Saints’ semi-final victory over Leinster this year was one of the matches of last or any other season. EPCR has agreed to sacrifice that once every four years. In its place, rugby supporters will find get an answer to the question of which club team is the best in the world.
This year’s qualifiers from Europe would have been Bordeaux Begles and Northampton Saints, who contest Saturday’s final, plus Toulouse, Leinster, Munster, Toulon, Castres and Glasgow Warriors.
The top seven in Super Rugby Pacific this season were the Crusaders, Brumbies, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Reds, Moana Pacifica and Blues.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newmarket and Windsor on the flat and on the all- weather at Newcastle
- Cricket, England’s test series against India continues at Edgbaston next week
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the British Lions series in Australia continues in Brisbane next Wednesday against the Reds.
- Golf, The John Deere Classic on the USPGA Tour and the BMW International Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, Wimbledon next week
Free Tip
F1 Austrian Grand Prix Sunday 2pm
FI returns for the summer European race season beginning in Austria this weekend.
After Norris’ late race error in Canada, Piastri’s championship lead is 22 points over his team-mate with Verstappen a further 21 points behind.
Ten races into the season Piastri has won 5 races Norris and Verstappen two each whilst Russell/Mercedes got on the board in Canada.
With 14 races to go in the season Canada was far from a fatal blow to Norris' title hopes, but it makes his life much harder against a team-mate who on balance has had the edge on him so far this season.
The Austrian Grand Prix at the relatively new Spielberg track is the shortest on the calendar and only has seven real corners. Three consecutive DRS zones from the last corner all the way to Turn 4 mean there is always plenty of overtaking action, and this should be a McLaren race given their straight-line speed.
Especially important is turn 3, a ninety-degree right-hander at the end of a long straight and DRS Zone which year after year has seen overtaking incidents and controversy. Given that both Verstappen and Norris are somewhat less pragmatic than Piastri, at the margin there is the possibility of more drama at this corner this year. Russell won in Austria last year after Norris and Verstappen collided there while contesting the lead.
I regard it as a decent chance that the top three (McLaren x 2, Verstappen) don’t all make it home without incident. As such I am interested in each-way opportunities but only at those firm that offer three places. The betting market splits between 1/3 1,2 and 1/5 1,2,3. The firms offering the latter include Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor.
Odds for the race are as follows:
Piastri 7/4
Norris 9/4
Verstappen 7/2
Russell 8/1
Bar 16/1
Given the risk of incident in front of him, I do like the 8/1 each-way Russell. We do need that third place though.
10 points each-way George Russell 8/1 (1/5 1,2,3) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor
Is Bazball growing up?
I had England as favourites before the test series against India. They don’t lose many series at home (only three out of 33 since 2008) and for a visiting side to win in England generally requires a settled team. With two great champions in Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma having just retired, India have not got that settled side.
We’ve just seen a fantastic first test in Leeds, England chasing 371 to win in the final session. They logged their second highest successful run chase in men's Tests and the tenth highest Test run chase of all time.
Ben Duckett’s brilliant 149 was the cornerstone of a remarkable run chase, comfortably the finest innings Duckett has played. His Test average (437) is now better than England openers of recent vintage - Atherton, Strauss and Gooch, and neck and neck with Trescothick.
England have now chased down a target of 250+ six times in McCullum/Stokes/Bazball regime Tests, as many times as all other teams combined.
This compares to the following from recent notable teams:
Dhoni's India - 4
Lara's West Indies - 3
Ponting's Australia - 3
India lost from 430-3 after the first four sessions, with collapses of 7-41 and 6-32 in their lower order batting in the two innings and they fielded poorly with multiple dropped catches and with completely unthreatening support bowling. They became the first Test side in history to lose a game where they had five centurions.
No England captain has chosen to bowl first more often than Ben Stokes and England have gone onto win 8 of those 11 Tests. He probably made the wrong toss decision on Day 1 but helped by India’s mis-steps and the excellent controlled run chase got the win anyway.
During the game England had a much more measured approach at times, particularly digging in to see off India’s one world class bowler Jasprit Bumrah. In a sense therefore we were watching Bazball, previously attack at all costs in all situations, grow up before our eyes. If this persists, it will make England a much more formidable team ahead of this winter’s Ashes.
Given that Bumrah is expected to play only two of the four remaining tests and how average the rest of the India bowling looks it is hard to see anything other than a England series win this summer.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
