Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Weekend of 13th-14th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Sunderland v Newcastle United.
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Adelaide next week
- NFL, Week 15 fixtures include the Green Bay Packers at the Denver Broncos
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages Round 2.
- Golf, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup
Pool 3 Stormers v La Rochelle 1pm Saturday
Two teams who won their first pool matches meet in the Eastern Cape this weekend in Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth).
The Stormers have won 6 in a row in the URC this season, including most recently downing unbeaten Munster away 27-21 from 15 points down. Last week they travelled to France and beat Bayonne 26-17 despite playing the last thirty minutes with 14 man after a red card.
The Stormers, who had won 23 scrum penalties this season coming into the match, dominated at the set-piece and by half-time alone their four scrums had produced three penalties and a free-kick. Here they look set to bring back Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Cobus Reinach from South Africa’s autumn tour.
La Rochelle beat Leicester Tigers 39-20 at home in the first game of this year’s ERCC. They are only 10th in the current French Top 14 table having won just 5 of 11 games.
This should be a big set-piece battle as La Rochelle, including Skelton and Alldrit in their pack, are powerful and well coached.
The spread for this game opened Stormers +14.5. By the time the news came out about the Springboks being available for selection, and potentially a La Rochelle line-up resting some players from last week, the line moved to a whopping +26.5 points. That looks excessive against an experienced Top 14 side/squad.
12 points La Rochelle +26.5 points at 10/11 generally
The 2027 Rugby World Cup Draw
The seeded draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia took place in December resulting as follows:
Pool A: New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong China, Chile
Pool B: South Africa, Italy, Georgia, Romania
Pool C: Argentina, Fiji, Spain, Canada
Pool D: Ireland, Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal,
Pool E: France, Japan, USA, Samoa
Pool F: England, Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe
Match-ups for a round of 16 are pre-determined with the winners of Pools A-D facing the four best third place finishers. Winners of Pools E-F will face runners-up. However the ideal route for teams in the draw is: 1. Be drawn in Pool E or F 2. Win that Pool. Doing this will see you avoid any other pool winners until the semi-final stage.
On seeding the two-halves of the draw at the Quarter-final stage would be:
New Zealand v South Africa
France v Fiji
-----
England v Australia
Ireland v Argentina
England for example have a nice looking pool they should win, then a potential last-sixteen tie against Italy but potentially a tough Quarter-final against the hosts, who might be considerably better come 2027. In good news they and Ireland, if results go according to plan, would be in the other half of the draw to New Zealand, South Africa and France.
Ireland cannot take anything at a World Cup for granted but their Scotland/Uruguay & Portugal draw could not have gone better followed by a third place team ahead of an Argentina Quarter
It’s a really tough draw for Scotland. If they come second in their group (likely because of Ireland), they will play the Group E winners in the last 16 almost certainly France.
Wales meanwhile are most likely to have a knockout run of Fiji then France.
Ante-post odds two years out are as follows:
South Africa 5/2
New Zealand 4/1
France 9/2
England 9/2
Ireland 13/2
Australia 9/1
Argentina 16/1
Scotland 33/1
Fiji 50/1
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all- weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Aston Villa v Arsenal
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Australia in Brisbane continues
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to conclude the 2025 season
- NFL, Week 14 fixtures include the Chicago Bears at the Green Bay Packers
- Rugby Union, the start of the European Rugby Champions Cup Pool stages
- Golf, the Grant Thornton Invitational on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
2025-26 European Rugby Champions Cup Ante-Post
The 2025-26 ERCC begins on Friday with the first round of pool matches. The final takes place in Bilbao in May. We had a nice ante-post winner last year with Bordeaux and I am going to (try to) repeat with another French Top 14 team. The French teams have a big structural advantage in the size of their league salary cap and consequently squad firepower. Leinster are perennially boosted by the structure of the Irish game, financially heavily supported by the IRFU, with the huge academy system producing talent for the provinces giving enviable squad depth too.
This year Bath might also be contenders, whilst the South African teams will still face the logistical challenges of travel to and from Europe and often rotated team selection with the pool games sandwiched between URC games the week before/after.
A reminder of the structure of the tournament. For the purposes of the draw, the 24 qualifying clubs were separated into two tiers, Tier 1 and Tier 2, based on their league finishing position; with the winners of each domestic competition (Bath, Toulouse and Leinster) and the defending Champions Cup winners (Bordeaux) seeded in the top tier. The remaining twenty teams will be seeded in the second tier.
Like previous seasons, the four pools are made up of six teams, with each pool containing two clubs from each of leagues; Each team will play the four teams not from its own league once with the top four teams advancing to the round of 16, where the top two teams in each group are given home advantage.
A few days before the start of the tournament the head of the market is as follows:
Toulouse 5/2
Leinster 11/4
Bordeaux 7/2
Bath 15/2
La Rochelle 16/1
Bulls 20/1
Northampton 20/1
Toulon 20/1
Saracens 25/1
Each way terms are one-third two places with various firms.
I have no issue with the prices at the front but this pool format does provide some variance. Last year for example Toulouse, tournament holders and favourites were only the fifth seed coming out of the pool and their path through involved an away game at Toulon in the quarters and an away game at Bordeaux in the semi’s which they lost, all because of a tough pool they didn’t win.
I think there is a firm value play this year and that is Toulon at 20-1. Toulon are currently third in the French Top 14 and won their ERCC pool to finish as 4th seed into the knockouts last year. They are renowned for considerable home advantage in a tight stadium with vociferous support on the Med coast, a dangerous and experienced side containing the likes of Ollivon, Serin, Gros, Villiere and Jaminet of current/recnt French internationals.
This year their pool has a couple of tough spots but crucially contains no South African team, the only one of the four pools not to do so. They’ll be favourites to beat Edinburgh and Gloucester away and vitally the draw has given them their two toughest opponents Bath and Munster at home. They’d have been underdogs to both away. I think a pool win is possible and a top 8 seed/top two pool finish very likely.
10 points each way (1/3 1,2) Toulon to win the European Rugby Champions Cup at 20/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, 18/1 Bet365, 16/1 Betfred
Hey Big Spender.
Premier League clubs spent £3bn in the summer transfer window, more than all the other top European leagues in Spain, Italy, Germany and France combined. Over the previous five summer windows the Premier League’s was responsible for 46% of the spending of the top five leagues. Now it is 51%.
The Premier League’s global appeal and financial muscle prompted Real Madrid, Juventus and Barcelona to launch the ill-fated European Super League. The collapse of that project came after the six English clubs withdrew. The long term prospect of a Super League remains as a reminder to the English clubs that there is growing unhappiness at the financial disparities.
On the one hand there is the talent drain to England becoming even more pronounced, but on the other European clubs can cash in from selling even mediocre players for inflated fees.
Last season the Premier League champions, Liverpool, received about £175m in domestic and overseas TV money, compared with £72m for Bayern Munich, £69m for Napoli and £42m for PSG. The Bundesliga is now in a situation where it is having to farm out the English rights for its Friday-night matches free of charge to try to generate interest.
This all means there will be even more focus by continental clubs and leagues on finding alternative revenue streams.
Fifa’s revamped Club World Cup provided Real, PSG and others with a cash injection of between £40m-£80m and there may be pressure from clubs now for that to expand from 12 European teams.
La Liga’s plan to play domestic league matches in the United States (which was to begin with Barcelona v Villarreal in Miami this month, plans now shelved) is a good example of different strategies that leagues are exploring such as international expansion and investing in stadium infrastructure.
Real Madrid may be the club with the biggest revenues but their spending is relatively conservative these days. No fewer than seven English clubs outspent Real this summer including Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster and Newbury and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Arsenal
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Australia in Brisbane next week.
- Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
- NFL, Week 13 fixtures include the Kansas City Chiefs at the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Thursday.
- Rugby Union, the Autumn International season fixtures conclude with Wales v South Africa
- Golf, the Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the Australian Open and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
Formula One, Qatar Grand Prix Sunday 4pm
The Formula 1 season continues this weekend with the 23rd and penultimate round of 2025 at the Losail International Circuit.
The final Sprint weekend of the season will also be contested in Qatar, so a total of 33 points will be up for grabs for winning both races. Max Verstappen won the Sunday race last year.
World Championship standings heading into the two Middle East races to finish the season are Norris 390, Piastri 366 and Verstappen 366 points. This after the two McLaren cars were disqualified in Las Vegas last week because the thickness of the rearmost skid of both cars was less than required. F1 teams chase every edge and McLaren's aggressive car set up backfired but it does indicate a concern about their late season pace compared to Verstappen. They can't take the same risk here.
Before both McLarens were thrown out, Norris had a 30-point lead over his team-mate and was 42 ahead of Red Bull's Max Verstappen with just two races to go and a maximum of 58 points available. In that scenario, as long as Norris did not lose more than five points to Piastri at the penultimate race and 17 to Verstappen, he would have left Doha as world champion for the first time.
Now Norris' lead is down to 24 points, and Verstappen has vaulted up to be level on points with Piastri albeit still technically third overall as he has one fewer win.
Norris remains a strong favourite, but Verstappen is now properly in the game. To close on Norris by 12 points on average over the remaining two races is still a big ask, but it's not that long since Verstappen's victory in Austin last month meant he had reduced his deficit to the championship leader (at that time Piastri) by 64 points over four races.
If Norris gains just two points over both rivals over the course of the Qatar weekend, he will be world champion. If he fails to do that, the title race goes to the final race in Abu Dhabi the following weekend.
Our pre-season each way position Oscar Piastri (7/1) won seven races in the first half of the season but hasn’t won since Zandvoort at the end of August 8 races ago.
Verstappen meanwhile has won 4 of the last seven races having won just 2 of the first 15 races of the season. Red Bull have out-developed McLaren through the summer such that the Red Bull has if not been the fast car been a close challenger in the second half of the season, including finishing third in Sao Paolo following a pit-lane start in last place.
Prices for this Grand Prix are
Verstappen 11/8
Norris 15/8
Piastri 8/1
12/1 bar
There is an extra level of variance in the race. Tyre limit has been mandated at 25 laps so all teams will have to run at least two pit stops. With Verstappen in such form and McLaren with the ride issues and only so many possible winners strange races aside odds against Verstappen looks good to me.
15 points Max Verstappen to win the Qatar Grand Prix at 11/8 Betfred, Star Sports 5/4 generally
Cooked.
The County Championship’s controversial experiment with the Australian Kookaburra ball appears to be over after directors of cricket agreed to ditch it for next summer.
Encouraged by the England management, with an eye on future Ashes tours, starting with this winter’s, the Kookaburra ball has been used in the County Championship for the past three seasons. In 2023, it was used for two rounds, before an expansion to four of the 14 rounds in 2024 and 2025.
Now, following a post-season meeting between directors of cricket it has been decided that the Kookaburra ball will not be used next summer.
This means that all 14 rounds in 2026 will be played with the Dukes, which is the default ball in England and used for home Test matches. The Dukes is British made, hand-stitched, and known for greater lateral movement. The Australian Kookaburra is machine-stitched and, historically, has been less friendly to bowlers. It is used in Test matches in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.
The experiment was first recommended by Sir Andrew Strauss’s ill-fated high-performance review of 2022. The aim was to challenge English bowlers, improving seamers’ ability to bowl in unhelpful conditions, encouraging the selection of quicker bowlers, and promoting the use of spin, which is often reduced to a fringe pursuit in county cricket.
The full results of the experiment will not be known for some years, but it did at least contribute to the increase in the amount of spin bowled in the domestic game. In 2024, 50% more spin was bowled in the Kookaburra rounds than the Dukes rounds.
The trouble was that it produced some dull cricket, and plenty of draws as the bat held sway over the ball. In 2024, when the experiment was trialed on soft early-season pitches, 17 of the 18 matches in the opening two rounds were drawn. This year, with the experiment moved to mid-summer, Surrey racked up a club-record score of 820 for nine amid another nationwide run-glut.
The doomed Strauss review recommended a pilot of the Kookaburra in county cricket, which was then a graveyard for batsmen with medium-fast seamers running amok. It had rarely felt more different to Test cricket and was not providing England with the tools that thrive at the highest level: technically sound batsmen, bowlers with high pace, and high-class spinners.
It did not suit county cricket. The pitches were too soft for it, or the bowlers were simply not equipped with the skill sets to prise wickets out with it. Draws, and some dull cricket, followed.
The end of the experiment implies the deepening of a disconnect between the counties and the national team. The counties will do what suits them, and England will do what suits them.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntington and on the all- weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Australia continues in Perth.
- Formula One, the Las Vegas Grand Prix
- NFL, Week 12 fixtures include the Philadelphia Eagles at the Dallas Cowboys.
- Rugby Union, the Autumn International season fixtures include Ireland v South Africa, England v Argentina, Wales v New Zealand and France v Australia
Free Tip
Autumn International Rugby Ireland v South Africa Saturday 5.40pm
The Dublin game on Saturday features two top-four World ranked sides, Ireland 4th hosting comfortably the world’s top ranked team reigning World Champions South Africa.
Ireland drew their two-game series away to South Africa in July 2024, they will be gunning for the win against the world’s current number one side to try and lift them in the world rankings ahead of next month’s draw for Rugby World Cup 2027. They fell to fourth place after England’s win over New Zealand last weekend.
South Africa have not secured a victory at the Aviva Stadium since 2012 after losing the last three times at the venue, falling 29-15 in 2014, 38-3 in 2017 and 19-16 in 2022.
Ireland come into the game after a record win over Australia, admittedly a tired-looking opponent at the end of a long season. A few weeks ago, Ireland lost 26-13 to New Zealand in Chicago, a clunky performance without much attacking threat. Since then they’ve put 40 points plus on Japan and Australia but clearly this is their toughest challenge of the Autumn Series games.
Coach Andy Farrell has taken a bit of flak over the past 12 months, particularly over his refusal to bring through younger players though he has been forced to blood young fly-halves after Jonny Sexton’s retirement over a year ago. The concern is the rest of the team, whilst an established unit playing in a consistent style is ageing. There are signs of some squad development now with Tommy O’Brien cementing a wing spot, Paddy McCarthy starting at loosehead and Ryan Baird excelling at blindside and seemingly locking down that position for the foreseeable future.
For this game centre Stuart McCloskey is injured but Garry Ringrose and Josh Van Der Flier are available again.
Despite being reduced to 14-men with red cards in both Autumn Series games so far South Africa have been relatively untroubled, winning 32-17 against France with a brilliant performance and 34-12 in Turin against Italy last weekend.
In that Italy game South Africa rested their first-choice side and they have impressive strength in depth plus an innovative coaching team. As I stated a few weeks ago that team has expanded their playing style since the 2023 World Cup with an off-loading game to accompany their traditional strengths of forward power, kicking and defence.
The emergence of fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has been central to that, a huge talent referred to as potentially rugby’s next global superstar to follow Dupont. As a clue to the type of game South Africa want to play they’ve picked Libbok as the bench ten rather than Pollard suggesting a wider game rather than a tactical aerial contest.
South Africa are 4/9, Ireland 7/4 outright for this game with South Africa -6.5 on the handicap.
12 points South Africa -6 points at Evens Bet365 and 10/11 generally
The Big Six
Over the course of the August transfer window there was a significant rise in the number of players bought from other Premier League clubs by the established ‘Big Six’ clubs with some of the other 14 clubs constrained by the league’s financial regulations. The financial strength of the established order is proving difficult to overcome.
The most serious threat has come from Newcastle, under Saudi Arabian ownership, and even their spending has been curbed by the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR). Likewise, their status as disruptors has been challenged by Isak engineering a transfer to Liverpool.
As well as breaking the British transfer record to sign Isak from Newcastle for £125m, Liverpool paid £40m to sign Milos Kerkez from Bournemouth as part of an extraordinary (and as yet not too successful, but its early days)£400m-plus outlay. Arsenal’s £250m-plus spend included Christian Norgaard from Brentford and Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace. Manchester City signed James Trafford from Burnley and Rayan Ait-Nouri from Wolves. Manchester United signed Matheus Cunha from Wolves and Bryan Mbeumo from Brentford. Tottenham signed Mohammed Kudus from West Ham United. Chelsea signed Facundo Buonanotte (on loan) and Joao Pedro from Brighton & Hove Albion.
Deals of this type were scarce in recent years as the Premier League’s wealth caused inflation in the transfer market. It allowed clubs outside the elite to set prohibitive asking prices for their star players, prompting the ‘Big Six’ to look overseas in search of better value.
In 2018-19, there were just two cases of ‘Big Six’ clubs signing players from the other 14: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City to Manchester City, £60m) and Rob Green (Huddersfield Town to Chelsea, free). The following season there were three, then six in 2019-20 and just three again in 2020-21, including Manchester City’s record-breaking £100m deal for Jack Grealish from Aston Villa.
Over the past five seasons though, the number of transfers from ‘the 14’ to ‘the six’ has gone up, culminating in 11 so far in 2025-26, with the possibility of more in January. Chelsea’s infatuation with Brighton’s young talents has certainly been a factor, the figures also reflect growing demand for players from Bournemouth in particular.
Aston Villa, Everton, Newcastle or Forest, all have had their frustrations with PSR but PSR has not stopped clubs outside the established elite from contributing a far greater share of the Premier League’s total transfer expenditure than a decade ago. In the five seasons from 2010-11 and 2014-15, spending by the ‘Big Six’ clubs represented up to 66% of the total transfer expenditure in the Premier League. That figure fell as low as 38% in 2018-19 and 34% last season, though it has risen again to 49% this summer.
There are other factors at play. One is an increased sophistication in player recruitment among non-elite clubs. What seemed a novel approach at Southampton in the mid-2010s, acquiring relatively unknown players before selling to bigger Premier League clubs (Liverpool in particular), has since been followed by Leicester, Brighton and, increasingly, Bournemouth, Brentford and others.
Another factor cited concerns the strength of the Premier League relative to other leagues. The most recent edition of Deloitte’s Football Money League, which ranks clubs worldwide by revenue, had six English clubs in the top 10. A further eight English clubs featured in the top 30; West Ham (17th) were one place below Juventus, while Brighton (21st) were ahead of Napoli and Roma.
Premier League clubs’ total transfer expenditure this summer was more than the French, German, Italian and Spanish leagues combined. As English football’s financial power has grown, driven by its global popularity and the huge broadcast and commercial deals that come with it, so much of the game’s wealth and talent has become concentrated in the Premier League.
These two factors have meant that, for example, when Liverpool were looking for a young left-back this summer, their data and qualitative analysis brought up high-class candidates in France, Germany, Italy and Spain but they still concluded that the player who had the best technical and physical profile, and was already assimilated to English football was Kerkez at Bournemouth. Similarly, when Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain were searching for a young central defender with high potential and the right technical profile, they went to Bournemouth and signed Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi respectively.
Release clauses in player contracts were a factor in some of this summer’s deals. Player and agent power is another factor with Isak and Wissa both rocking the boat to force moves.
It’s difficult for any team to join the Big Six whilst facing regulatory challenges of a type that did not exist until after Chelsea (under Abramovich) and Manchester City (under Sheikh Mansour) began to upset the established order in the 2000s. Financial regulation in European football has reinforced the dominance of the established order.
For Newcastle to be able to sign Isak from Real Sociedad in the summer of 2022 felt symbolic of their rise in status and spending power under their new ownership. To be unable to keep him from Liverpool three years later was a stark illustration of 21st-century football reality. Outperforming some of them on the pitch is one thing, but Newcastle cannot yet overcome the off-field strength of the ‘Big Six’.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby.
- Football, England’s World Cup Qualifier in Albania on Sunday
- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Australia begins next Friday in Perth.
- NFL, Week 11 fixtures include the Detroit Lions at the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
- Rugby Union, the Autumn International season fixtures include England v New Zealand and Ireland v Australia.
- Golf, The RSM Classic on the USPGA
- Tennis, ATP World Tour finals in Turin
Free Tip
Autumn International Rugby England v New Zealand Saturday 3.10pm
England enter their third game this Autumn on a run of nine consecutive victories, their best run since the world record-equalling run under Eddie Jones 2016-17.
England marked time for a good while under Steve Borthwick after the 2023 World Cup, as he rebuilt the team. It was their profligacy at Murrayfield in 2024 that led to a bolder attacking plan, which helped them beat Ireland 23-22 in that Six Nations. They experienced tight defeats by France (33-31) and the All Blacks in New Zealand twice (16-15 in Dunedin, and 24-17 at Eden Park), but by the time they resumed in November last year, these close defeats had become a pattern. After losing 24-22 to New Zealand at home then 42-37 in the last play of the game to Australia they lost again 29-20 to South Africa ending the year with two wins in seven Tests, both against Japan.
Since then they have just one defeat 27-22 by Ireland in the first match of the 2025 Six Nations. They went on to beat France and Scotland by a point, turning tight losses into tight wins before beating Italy and Wales to finish second in the Championship.
A relatively new strategy to load the bench with British & Irish Lions finishers has also made a difference. Only World’s best team the Springboks average more points per game in the final quarter of Tests this year. They now score ten points more per match than in 2023 (34 points to 24) and have slowly improved their attacking efficiency year on year, but it is still way off the best. However England make more entries in the 22 on average per match than any other team (12.3) yet only Argentina score fewer points with those chances. In the first two games of this Autumn International series a majority of their try opportunities have come from mauls in the tight forwards.
For this game they miss two normally certain starters Freeman and Chessum injured. The loss of Chessum will be felt as England’s second row depth isn‘t that of most other positions. Meanwhile this is their bench for Saturday: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Stuart, Cunningham South, Curry, Pollock, Spencer and Marcus Smith, including six British Lions from this summer.
The All Blacks finished second in this summer’s Rugby Championship with 4 wins out of six games, losing a match in Argentina and 43-10 to South Africa in Wellington.
They’ve recently beaten Ireland in Chicago where they were rusty but found a way through, then withstood a Scotland comeback last weekend, 17-0 up to win 26-19 with a brilliant late Damian McKenzie try.
This doesn’t look a vintage All Blacks team, rebuilding in places but they still have match-winners such as Ardie Savea, Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan and Damien McKenzie.
I was surprised to see England 8/11 favourites and -1.5 points on the spread. To my mind New Zealand are the better team, and the Southern Hemisphere International game stronger Australia apart. England have much to prove against the best sides and I’ve yet to see the attacking patterns to produce consistent chances outside the forwards.
15 points New Zealand to win at 21/20 Betfred, Evens generally.
Ashes to Ashes
We are a week away from the 2025-26 Ashes series in Australia, the culmination of what has been a great 18 months for Test cricket. The tone was set by a great West Indies win in Brisbane in January and a great England win in Hyderabad that followed.
It has been a case of expect the unexpected ever since. Bangladesh beat Pakistan, who then defeated England. Sri Lanka overcame New Zealand, who then won in India, who had already seen off both England and Bangladesh. Sri Lanka won a test in England last year and this summer India and England drew a topsy-turvy series 2-2.
The reason it is so unpredictable is that there is no stand-out team right now, like West Indies in the Eighties or the Australians at the turn of the century. Australia and India are the two best teams but are beatable. England can beat anyone but lose to anyone too.
The unpredictable results are due to a couple more reasons. The current pitches are really sporting. You go to Asia and know it will turn a lot. In Australia, England, New Zealand and South Africa there is nip, pace and bounce. The only really flat pitch all year was England’s first Test in Pakistan, and they still managed to force a result.
Australian wickets have been, throughout history, the best to score runs on. Since 1980 – the unofficial beginning of covered pitches – Australia has almost always had the highest average per wicket. Australia, India and Pakistan are all roughly at 34 runs per dismissal. Since 2020, Pakistan has kept theirs at 34… but India has been averaging 27, and Australia 28.
That is a huge drop. It is currently easier to score runs in Bangladesh than in Australia. There are a few reasons for this. One is about ICC World Test Championship points. Many teams have begun to prepare their pitches more for bowling, primarily to secure points in home games.
Another is that Australia has an ageing group of fast bowlers. Their back-up seamer is Boland, and he is 36. So, you don't want to have your three most important players bowled into the ground. There is little doubt we see more Australian surfaces with live grass coverage and lateral movement than ever before.
There is also a change in the Kookaburra balls. They decided to change their ball to ensure it didn't go soft so quickly and also to make it produce more exciting cricket, like the alternative Dukes balls. They did this by reinforcing the seam with plastic. The first time one of these balls was used in a Test was in Adelaide for a day/night match in December of 2020. India were bowled out for 36.
Batsmen also give bowlers a chance these days with their method, which means the game is played in fast-forward. We are seeing things we have never seen before. Young players like Harry Brook, Rachin Ravindra and Tristan Stubbs have been raised on Twenty20 and are instinctively aggressive.
At the same time, as expansive batting gives bowlers more of a chance, those bowlers actually have more tricks up their sleeve as they take learnings from the white-ball game into Test cricket.
Mostly, with the Test game being played at a faster pace these days with very few draws (factors like advances in drainage technology are also reducing delays due to weather), Test cricket is a four-day game now. At some stage a formal move to four-day tests would help solve some of the game’s commercial and calendar issues by having a three-Test series completed in three weeks, with matches from Thursday to Sunday each week, like a golf major.
The only downside is what cricket boards would do with the extra days it creates in the calendar. They want to make as much money as possible, and if you shave a day off each Test that opens up time for them to use up in a different way (adding another franchise to a tournament, extending that tournament by a week etc).
Test cricket is great but the World Test Championship is not, a reasonable concept with poor execution. At the moment every team plays a wildly different number of games and that does not create a balanced outcome or fair league table which a two-tier system, with each team playing 10-12 games a year and the same number each cycle, would do.
Looking ahead to the Ashes Australia are coming to the end of era, as signalled by the retirement of David Warner and with their brilliant “big three” fast bowlers Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood in their mid-thirties and Cummins with injury issues at the start of the series. Australia might have a tricky time because at some stage in the next couple of years a few big names could go at once. All bar one of the first test team are 30 years old or older.
The mostly likely outcome is an Australian win this winter, but I expect England to win at least one test and if they can keep 3 or more of their fast-bowling battery of Archer/Wood/Atkinson/Tongue and Potts fit for the series, who knows?
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page was updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
