Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th November -1st December
Coming up this weekend:
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle.
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include Ireland v Australia
- NFL, Week Thirteen
- Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
- Cricket, England’s Test Series in New Zealand continues next week with the second test in Wellington
- Golf, the Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour
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Free Tip
2024-2025 Champions cup Rugby ante post.
The 11th season of the European Rugby Champions Cup begins next weekend for the top club teams from the Tier One European nations plus for the third year the best South African provinces. Defending Champions are Toulouse who beat Leinster 31-22 in the final at Spurs in May. The final this year is in Cardiff.
The format of the competition has been through various iterations either side of and during the COVID disruption.
This season the 24 teams are again split into four groups of 6 played as a modified round robin. Each pool has two teams from each of the three contributing leagues (England, France and the URC) . Each team plays the four teams not from its own league once, with one game away to each league and one game at home. Teams do not play their league partners at this stage. The top four teams go to the first knock out round/last sixteen, where the top two teams in each group are given home advantage.
This year has, as is often the case, thrown up one particularly tough pool. Pool A has Toulouse, Bordeaux, Exeter, Leicester, Sharks and Ulster.
Disparities between the domestic games in each of the participating countries are wide in terms of league salary caps and therefore squad recruitment and depth. The best French sides and Leinster are clear favourites and this is reflected in the current ante-post market:
Toulouse 15/8
Leinster 5/2
La Rochelle 7/1
Bordeaux 8/1
Bar 14/1
The South African sides the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers are a conundrum as they find their way in this competition. At home (especially the Bulls, at altitude in Pretoria) they are a formidable prospect but the challenges of the distance to European fixtures, travelling thousands of miles for matches a few days after the last home game, have often meant that they’ve had to pick their poison and decide which games to rotate for. They’ve often chosen the away matches.
The Bulls at 14/1 are the favoured South African side in the markets ahead of the top English side Saracens at 20/1. Were the winner to come from outside the top four teams though, it would be a big shock in a tournament where these are rare by the time the knock-out stages are played after the Six Nations.
As this is a market that plays out until next May I am going to suggest an alternative to Toulouse at under 2/1.
Toulouse are currently top of the French top 14 after ten games, having won 7. Two points behind them also with 7 wins are Bordeaux-Begles (UBB).
Bordeaux are, even by the standards of the wealthy French sides, well-funded by their entrepreneur owner and that’s led to a several year recruitment drive of some of the top domestic talent. For example UBB is the home of Jalibert, Bielle-Biarrey, Depoortere, Moefana and Penaud of the Frfench national side back division and the team often wins high-scoring exciting games. A particularly tough prospect to play at home in front of a very partisan crowd, though they lost 41-42 to Quins in the Quarter-Final of last year’s competition, a big surprise for a side who’d beaten Saracens 45-12 the week before. Before that their only loss was 46-40 to the Bulls in Pretoria.
They are a better team this year and at 7/1 I’d anticipate them finishing top two in their pool, starting the knockj-outs at home and going from there.
10 points each-way (1/3, 2 places) Bordeaux-Begles to win the ERCC at 8/1 Ladbrokes/Corals, 13/2 Bet365 and BetVictor
Overboard
Is 2024 the “Year of the Running Back” in the NFL? Two factors in particular stand out. Running back value relative to their compensation and the age and experience of many of the league's most productive backs.
In recent years a narrative regarding running backs had emerged to the point that it felt like a consensus had been decided regarding their fate. The NFL had seemingly decided that running backs were fungible and that it didn’t make sense to pay them significant money on second or third contracts when you could simply draft a younger, cheaper, healthier alternative at one of the most physically grueling and thus injury-riddled positions in the sport.
The free agent market became so grim in 2023 that there was even talk of running backs having their own union. There had been a rash of second contracts among star running backs like Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, and others that had worked out horribly for their respective teams, handing out big guarantees in exchange for little production.
The market for running backs had become so bad that some teams started to realise that the position's difference-makers had become undervalued. When free agency started, they decided to capitalise.
The Eagles for example gave Saquon Barkley a three-year deal that guaranteed him $26m.Barkley has been a difference maker for the 9-2 Eagles this year, averaging almost six yards per carry, and he is now leads the NFL in rushing yards. He needs to average 119 rushing yards over his final six games (714 total) in order to pass Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record. He's averaging 127 yards per game this season.
Barkley is doing this in Year 7 in the NFL. At a time when most people expect runners like Barkley to start to decline, he is as explosive as ever,
Barkley makes 53% of what Colts receiver Michael Pittman earns annually. Barkley makes $10m less per year than Titans receiver Calvin Ridley. The market was and probably still is wrong and in need of correction, and the Eagles were one of the first teams to correctly identify that via their pursuit of Barkley. That said, they weren’t the only ones.
Derrick Henry is another prime example. He is near the top of the NFL in almost every rushing category at age 30. He is doing it for $8m a year, which means he makes 33% of what receivers like DK Metcalf and Texans Nico Collins make.
There’s a reason why the Saints just gave their star running back, Alvin Kamara, a two-year contract extension that represents his third contract with the franchise. Or that the Packers pounced on the chance to give Josh Jacobs a deal that pays him $12m per year on a second contract after five years with the Raiders. Or even the Texans getting tremendous value at $8.5m per year out of Joe Mixon on his third NFL contract. What about James Conner and his impact on the Cardinals this season at age 29 in his eighth NFL season?
While Barkley and Henry are certainly the headliners, “older” backs like Kamara, Jacobs and Mixon are all in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing with more than 780 yards already.
The point is that the narratives regarding running backs as they relate to their age and value have gone way overboard, and the players mentioned above and others have proven that so far this year
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester City v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include Wales v South Africa and Scotland v Australia
- NFL, Week Twelve
- Formula One, the Las Vegas Grand Prix
- Cricket, England’s Test Series in New Zealand continues next week with the first test in Christchurch
- Golf, the Australian Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
Scotland v Australia Autumn International Rugby 1.40pm Sunday
Australia came into the autumn largely written off after a bleak Rugby Championship, but they have taken big strides forward in the turn-around under new coach Joe Schmidt playing great attacking rugby. The increased time the squad have spent together this tour has clearly aided with the on-pitch connections, which has really helped them move up a gear or three.
On the pitch, they have developed their game plan to bring in their explosive back-three, but it’s come from typical Schmidt-esque play that made Ireland such a force in his tenure there. On the whole, it’s pretty simple even with some nice flashes of flair thrown, but it’s incredibly effective.
Schmidt has also got the pack firing too, particularly in the scrum, which has contributed to their overall improvement. It’s been a number of years since Australia had that foundation from which to play, and against opposition not of the same standard that they faced in the early stages of his management in the summer they’ve beaten England 42-37 and Wales 52-20 in successive weeks and given us a couple of winners.
They now play Scotland and Ireland to conclude their Autumn tour. The Ireland game in particular will give a good steer for where Australia are.
Scotland lost 32-15 to South Africa a fortnight ago and then beat Portugal 59-21 last weekend. As a team they’ve flattered to deceive against Tier 1 opposition over several seasons, such as in last season’s six Nations where they beat England and Wales but lost to Italy. In the rugby World Cup in a horrible group they didn’t get close to South Africa and Ireland.
With plenty of firepower out-wide and Russell pulling the strings this should set up as an open and weather permitting high scoring game.
Before I started writing I did my own piece of mental handicapping and came up with Australia -3 or -4. Clearly favourites to me. I then checked the markets…..to see Australia +3 to +4. Yes please. All I could think was that maybe Australia would rest players ahead of Ireland next week.
There’s a chance they are simply too strong for the Scots up front and even if its an even contest there, Australia’s try scoring firepower should see them home.
20 points Australia +3.5 points at 10/11 generally
Clarified
In June, the Associated Press clarified the guidelines for the official Comeback Player of the Year award. As of a fortnight ago betting markets, which had Sam Darnold the Minnesoita Vikings Quarterback as favourite, showed that people weren’t necessarily heeding the clarification.
This prompted a tweet from the AP as follows…clarifying the clarification.
“QB Sam Darnold probably would’ve been a candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year award before the AP issued guidance to voters before the season, instructing them that “the spirit of the award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.” If he keeps playing at this level, Darnold could end up with another award: Most Valuable Player.”
Uncertainty still lingers regarding the basic question of whether players who don’t meet the revised criteria can receive votes and, in theory, win the award.
Will players like Darnold and Steelers quarterbacks Justin Fields and Russell Wilson who haven’t been seriously injured or ill but have “come back” to success in the NFL be declared ineligible and any votes for them rejected?
The criteria, as written, is sufficiently broad to allow a voter to vote for someone who supposedly isn’t eligible. Consider the specific language of it: “resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances (my italics) that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”
The key words are “other circumstances.” Darnold overcame being stuck with bad organisations for the early years of his career, which caused him to miss playing time in 2023 because he wasn’t deemed to be good enough to start for any team. Aren’t those “other circumstances” that would allow a vote for Darnold?
The quote from the AP seems circular in its logic. The voters know the criteria and we expect them to follow the criteria thus the winner necessarily will meet the criteria.
The criteria is broad enough to encompass anyone who had a better year in 2024 than he had in 2023. It seems that the issue arose as an effort to ensure that “comeback player” isn’t confused for “most improved.” At some point, however, the issue became twisted up with concerns over bets placed on the award.
Since the clarification of the clarification players like Darnold have been removed from consideration by sports books like FanDuel. Without a clear statement from the AP that Darnold isn’t eligible, however, that seems premature. Unless the AP plans to reject votes for certain players Darnold could still win.
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year award has a chance to become a full-blown mess in 2024.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Nations League matches include England v Republic of Ireland
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v South Africa and France v New Zealand
- NFL, Week Eleven
- Cricket, England’s T20 International Series in the West Indies continues
- Golf, the RSM Classic on the USPGA Tour and the Australian PGA Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, Davis Cup Finals
Free Tip
Wales v Australia Autumn International Rugby 4.10pm Sunday
Contrasting fortunes for these sides heading into their second week of four Autumn Internationals. Australia showed significant progress, especially in attack, in beating England 42-37 last week. They appear to have hit the jackpot with Rugby League recruit Joseph Suaa’li’i, man of the match in his first ever union game and the whole team displayed a thrilling combination of running rugby with great off-loads and real strength in the forward pack.
This was very much the green shoots of recovery, a corner turned, but best of all, a return to the way that Australia play rugby at high speed, fearless and with brilliant attacking ambition, after a torrid year during and since the 20-23 Rugby World Cup, in which Wales beat Australia 40-6!).
Australia kept their back-row settled for most of 2024 through some tough results and that has now paid dividends for Australia. The way Fraser McReight and his offload, Harry Wilson and his power and Bobby Valetini and his work-rate pressured England was at the absolute centre of the win. Those three players played an excellent back-row off the park once Tom Curry was injured and England lacked a breakdown player in their back-row. Meanwhile front-rower Angus Bell beat nine players in his carrying effort.
This weekend Harry Wilson is injured so there is an opportunity to bring Will Skelton into the second row and shift Rob Valetini to the back of the scrum.
Australia beat Wales back-to-back in July at home (25-16 and 36-28) and are a better team now and the Welsh slumped to a 10th straight defeat in a 24-19 loss to Fiji last weekend, playing against 14 men. Defeat against Australia this weekend will be a record-losing streak for Wales of 11 successive games.
Wales’ last win was in the the pool phase at last year’s Rugby World Cup in France when they beat Georgia.
After the World Cup there were a slew of retirements and that combined with a shallow regional player pool has led to these difficulties. The young players introduced to Test rugby need patience and time in a losing team. They are showing development but its likely to be a long haul back to competitiveness.
Big picture Welsh rugby is beset by governance and funding problems and has spent 15 years under-investing in pro rugby and development. That has now come home to roost once the exceptional Wyn-Jones, Warburton, Halfpenny, Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Tipuric generation has retired.
Their 23 for this game is particularly inexperienced in the back-line. Bar Anscombe with 38 caps the other 9 backs combined have 45 caps.
20 points Australia -5 points to beat Wales at 10/11 generally available
Precipice
Seven of the 10 English Premiership rugby clubs are balance sheet insolvent, according to an independent financial industry report which has prompted a stark warning that unless the sport embraces change it is “heading for a precipice”.
A comprehensive study analysing the financial sustainability of all the Premiership sides, unveiled by the leading UK corporate recovery and insolvency firm Leonard Curtis, concluded that only three clubs, Leicester, Northampton and Gloucester, would be viable without the backing of wealthy owners and said they must face “some harsh realities”.
The report, which has aggregated the latest publicly available audited figures, says the 10 clubs collectively lost around £30.5m in the year 2022‑23, adding further to an already significant debt burden. Overall the clubs have net debts of £311m, with nine having made losses of more than £1m in the 2022-23 season.
Neither Premiership Rugby nor the Rugby Football Union were involved directly in the report which runs to 67 pages and ranks among the more comprehensive pieces of work on the state of the modern club game in England
The study paints a bleak picture and without more professional management and lower cost bases the game is heading for a very untenable position in the future.
The Premiership has already lost three clubs, Worcester, Wasps and London Irish in recent times and the report warns that falling broadcasting revenue is a “significant worry” for all the remaining clubs.
It also expresses “justifiable concern” over the current debt levels in the league and highlights the widening gap between clubs like Harlequins, who generated the league’s highest revenue figure of £26. 8m, and Newcastle who propped up the list with £11.2m.
In terms of debt, the report has Bristol topping the list to the tune of £60m, with the “best” side in that regard being Exeter with net debts of £15m at the end of 2022-23.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Arsenal
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v Australia
- NFL, Week Ten
- Cricket, England’s T20 International Series in the West Indies continues
- Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the DP World Tour Championship
- Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals
Free Tip
England v Australia Autumn International Rugby 3.10pm Saturday
Australia’s first game of these Autumn Internationals, where relatively new coach Joe Schmidt returns to the Northern Hemisphere for the games after he replaced Eddie Jones.
Schmidt’s first games of a major rebuilding task following the dreadful Rugby World Cup performance, and with the domestic game in some disarray, came in the Rugby Championship in the Summer where Australia finished bottom, winning just one of their six games.
They face a tough task first up at Twickenham. England were 22-14 up on the All Blacks with 20 minutes to go last weekend before fading to lose by two points as their last-minute penalty to win hit the post followed by a drop goal falling wide.
Excluding their win over Japan in Tokyo, that’s now 5 Tests in the past 6 matches that England have been ahead in the second half only to lose, three against New Zealand. Learning how to win close games is yet to come!
A key factor in the narrow defeat was that New Zealand’s bench outplayed England’s. This was noticeable in the front row where England’s supremacy vanished when the front three were replaced after 55 minutes.
England went bold with a 6:2 split against New Zealand, but if anything it backfired. Their replacement forwards simply lost the battle up-front, with the likes of Patrick Tuipulotu running riot in the final stages.
If you can’t use the 6:2 to get dominance back into the game, as the Springboks do with the Bomb Squad, there isn’t really a point in using it. It’s back to 5-3 this week!
It’s also routine to replace a player at 10 for the closing stages of a game but here, with the benefit of hindsight, it was a mistake. Marcus Smith at fly-half was having one of his best games at Test level where he grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck by managing where England was playing really well. He kicked beautifully off the tee and that interception on his line which resulted in a try was a clutch play.
Sadly George Ford, in his first game back from injury, looked rusty and England lost control.
Before that England’s defence had been shown to be vulnerable as the All Blacks scored three tries. England rushing up out of a defensive line brought some benefits but was also exploited by the skills of the All Blacks in the offload.
This weekend of course on paper England face an easier task, they are 11.5-point favourites having been 4-point underdogs last week.
Australia are still honing their squad, and have rugby league convert Joseph Sua’ali’i in this squad for the first time at centre and he’s been picked here, a brave but exciting move, and the very experienced Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi are going to be important inclusions compared to the Rugby Championship side.
With England still working on their defensive style I feel that Australia’s backs will also make inroads and could score tries. The key will be whether their pack can hold on and secure enough ball against Itoje, Martin and co in the tight exchanges.
In the Rugby Championship Australia averaged 35 points a game against, not flattered by conceding nearly 60 in one of the Argentina games.
By the end of the Championship in the two New Zealand games things were slightly more promising though. At home they lost by 3 points conceding 20 and away by 20 conceding 33 points.
If they can hold England to 30 points or less here I like their chances of scoring 20 or so, and therefore suggest that Australia +13, up from +11 as the week began is slightly uncomfortable but nevertheless a value bet.
11 points Australia +13 points at 10/11 widely available
Changes
The Cleveland Browns had yet to score 20 points and reach 300 yards in a game this season, and at 3.8 yards per offensive play, they had the worst offense through seven games of any team since 2018. Their average of 3.8 yards per play was a half-yard behind the juggernaut Titans and Patriots. The Browns offense had scored three touchdowns in its last 16 quarters and 95 points in just six games
Quarterback DeShaun Watson had been sacked 29 times, eight more than any other quarterback across the league, and was completing just 60% of his passes, when he tore his achilles in Week 7 against the Bengals and is now out for the season.
The team had already made an odd decision, if the team was intending to win now, of having second year player Dorian Thompson-Robinson as his backed up over the flawed veteran Jameis Winston who nevertheless has big play potential to spark an offense. DTR then was injured in the same game, so Winston it is!
Watson’s contract made benching him, and ultimately cutting him, difficult to do. He’s making $45m this year, will make $45m fully guaranteed next year, and another $45m fully guaranteed the year after that, with cap hits of $72.9M in both years. They are stuck with his contract.
Meanwhile the Browns are watching the player they picked #1 overall Baker Mayfield play really well for another team while the guy they let him walk for, and paid $250m guaranteed, played very poorly.
Head Coach Kevin Stefanski couldn’t bench him even if he wanted to or make the necessary organisational changes to make significant progress and the ownership was wedded to their sunk-cost of a poor decision.
During the first six weeks of the season an absurd 45% of passes directed at their leading wide receiver Amari Cooper qualified as "off target". We haven't seen an off-target rate that high for a player with 40+ targets since at least prior to 2011. Cooper led the NFL with 473 air yards on incomplete targets this season. He was then traded to the Bills.
The Bills have had their own problems at receiver, their players a hodge-podge of too many guys who can’t win on the outside. Their trade for Cooper potentially fixes that problem and gives the rest of the offense more space, all for a 3rd round draft pick in 2025 and for under $1m in salary cap. For a short-term rental, its solid business.
In 2024 Quarterback Josh Allen has ranked 27th in yards gained on the deep ball having ranked 10th and 4th in the two previous seasons. On paper at least, the Bills and Cooper are a good match.
For the Browns, short term prospects look gloomy, but at least its more draft capital to rebuild next spring.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd November
Coming Up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Southwell.
- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v New Zealand
- NFL, Week Nine
- Cricket, England’s One Day International Series in the West Indies continues
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Golf, the Worldwide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Gijon and Moselle Opens
Free Tip
England v New Zealand 3.10pm Saturday Twickenham
The First weekend of a month of Autumn Internationals. England face New Zealand, Australia and South Africa on successive weekends before ending their Autumn campaign against Japan.
England showed some encouraging signs last season to back up their semi-final finish in the 2023 Rugby World Cup. In the Six Nations they recorded three wins, including a famous victory at home to Ireland, and in their two losses they came really close in the last game in Paris losing 33-31 to France. Overall under Borthwick they have only won 13 of 24 games as he has rebuilt from the dramas of the tail-end of the Eddie Jones era.
What was notable was that towards the end of the Championship the team was attacking well and scoring “flair” tries, a rarity for a few years.
England then travelled for two tests in New Zealand in early summer and lost both games narrowly by one and 7 points and have yet to take the next step of winning the very tight games against the top opponents.
Since the summer there has been upheaval. Defence coach Felix Jones resigned in August and claimed to have made his decision because of an "unstable working environment" whilst head of strength and conditioning Aled Walters has taken up a similar role with Ireland.
Joe El-Abd has taken over the defence while performing his director of rugby duties with Oyonnax until the end of the season and Dan Tobin is in charge of conditioning until Phil Morrow can be prised away from Saracens.
In addition these games will be England’s first experience under trialled rule changes including 20-minute red cards and a time limit on scrum and lineout formations. A full red card will still be shown to players guilty of deliberate and dangerous acts of foul play but the unintentional and accidental collisions will only leave a team short-handed for 20 minutes.
England’s opponents in this series have already been playing under new rules in Rugby Championship, a source of unhappiness for England’s coaches.
The squad for November which sees the injured first-choice half-back Alex Mitchell and and Ben Spencer will play at scrum half and Marcus Smith outside him with the hope that Smith especially will bring out the best of the England backs. Up front second row Ollie Chessum was injured in training camp and misses the whole series, an important loss. Slade and Dombrandt are in the squad despite no domestic play this season through injury.
A refresher on the All Blacks where the Internatrional game has faced player departures to France and Japan led by the finances on offer, the retirements of key players such as Retallick and Whitelock (with Same Cane to follow at the end of the year) and a new coaching team in place led by Scott Robertson who lead the all-conquering Crusaders in Super Rugby for many years.
After the England matches Robertson’s first Rugby Championship game saw a shock loss at home to Argentina, ending in second place losing both games to champions South Africa.
New Zealand’s back line is as threatening as ever but beyond the first choice pack the defections and retirements temporarily leave the All Black squad lacking experienced depth, which has been an issue late in a number of games this year where performance has fallen away after substitutions.
In this squad three players who were initially named are now unavailable: Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papali’i have all been ruled out for calf, thumb and hamstring injuries respectively.
They warmed up with a 64-19 win in Japan last weekend in which most first choice players were rested.
I would expect this to be a close game and am not surprised to see the sides priced New Zealand 4/7 and England 6/4 consistent with recent results, though England now have home advantage. New Zealand are -4 on the handicap, a line that has moved from -2.5 this week. After that line move above ther key 3 point mark I'm on England with the spread.
11 points England +4 points at 10/11 widely available
Jetting off
After Week 3 of the NFL season the New York Jets moved to 2-1. The offense looked sharp and Quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked healthy. Two games later, the Jets were 2-3 and owner Woody Johnson fired coach Robert Saleh.
The timing made little sense, especially with the upcoming Monday night visit from the 3-2 Bills in a key divisional game. Win that and win Week 7 at Pittsburgh, and the Jets would be 4-3 and in contention to win the division.
Salah was hired in 2021 and took a a 2-14 team that was -214 in points differential the season before to a competitive position. The Jets went “all in” on a veteran Quarterback but unfortunately the offense still isn’t working consistently.
Salah though is from a defensive background and through his tenure the Jets defense has been very strong. Since the 2021 season the Jets defense is 1st in points per drive, 1st in Expected points added per play and 3rd in success rate despite playing the fourth-most snaps over that stretch due to the ineffectiveness of the offense.
Under offensive co-ordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers’man, the offense was never solved though. The Jets owner considered the roster ready to compete now but this season they are 23rd in EPA per play and 21st in drop back success rate. The Jets need a total offensive overhaul and that's not feasible mid-season. The very talented running back Breece Hall is under-performing and the on-field relationship between Rodgers and top wide receiver Garrett Wilson is yet to mesh.
It’s far from clear how promoting a defensive co-ordinator to Head coach helps the offensive situation and onlookers are left thinking that Rodgers has got what he wanted, the people around him he wants but no long term solutions yet.
Big picture, the Jets haven't had a head coach finish their tenure with a winning percentage above 50% since 2000, as long term mediocrity continues.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
