Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh
- Football, Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal.
- NFL, Week Two of the new season.
- Cricket, T20 finals Day at Edgbaston sandwiched between T20Is between England and Australia on Friday and Sunday.
- Formula One, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.
- Golf, The BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Zhuhai and Chengdu Opens
Free Tip
T20 finals day, Saturday Edgbaston
After the unsatisfactory six-week gap between the T20 Blast Group stages and Quarter-Finals the season scheduling has dealt another blow to the competition, specifically one of the prestige days of the domestic county season, by being sandwiched this Saturday between England/Australia T20Is on Friday and Sunday.
This of course removes a number of players from finals day, and one team in particular is affected. Whilst Somerset and Gloucestershire have no England players, Sussex must do without Jofra Archer and Surrey are minus Sam Curran, Reece Topley, Will Jacks and Jamie Overton all of whom played in the Quarter-Final win over Durham.
Surrey might get Pope and Jamie Smith back from the end of the Sri Lanka test series, in which Atkinson ended with an injury but the four absentees are a big loss of specialist white ball players, and rather undesirable for this tournament as a whole.
This year will see the third all-south group finals day in four years and prices going into finals day are as follows:
Somerset 9/4
Surrey 9/4
Sussex 9/4
Gloucestershire 9/2
The draw for the semi-finals was made before the Quarters as follows
Game 1 Surrey v Somerset
Game 2 Sussex v Gloucs
With the first game starting at 11am in Mid-September, and the new white balls this summer producing pronounced swing and seam Game 1 could very well be a toss game, as it was when Surrey reduced Durham to 69-6 in their Quarter. Everyone thinks the winner will come from these two sides, the one Test match ground and wealthiest county and Somerset the defending Champions but in the likely conditions 9/4 about either seems skinny. The probable loss of the talented opener Tom Banton with an injury this week is also unhelpful.
Sussex are a solid outfit even without Archer, with a bowling attack led by Ollie Robinson but it is Gloucestershire that really appeals to me at 9/2 on value grounds.
A resolutely unfashionable smaller county with off-the-field financial problems this is just their fourth time in the semi-finals, and just a second trip since 2007.
Their route to finals days has been fraught with chaos. In the group stages they were involved in a tie with Surrey, a last-ball defeat at Sussex, a last-ball defeat at Hampshire, an unfortunate loss to Kent when rain hit after five overs of a seemingly comfortable run-chase, a last-ball victory at Glamorgan and a double over Somerset chasing 189 and 195 to win both games
A year ago, they finished seventh in last season's South Group and the side only has 23 international caps between them, with only a single overseas player, Cameron Bancroft. Just one Gloucestershire player played a game in this year's Hundred.
Key bowlers David Payne and Matt Taylor in this year's Blast (in the powerplay and at the death) have taken 52 wickets @ 14.5 at under 7 runs an over and bowled brilliantly in the Quarter at this ground to defend 138 and beat Birmingham/Warwickshire. Both are vastly under-rated and on their own make 9/2 look a very sporting price for finals day.
10 points Gloucestershire to win the T20 Blast at 9/2 with Bet365
Wrecks ‘Em.
A few weeks into the League One season and Wrexham are already in the top two and set to make further progress after their Hollywood story dominated League Two and the National League.
Much has been said about the positive “Wrexham effect”, but it’s not all pre-season friendlies against Chelsea in California and sponsorship from global brands for lower division teams. Many may yet find that Ryan Reynolds’ and Rob McElhenney’s venture indirectly hurt them.
Consultancy LCP has just published its second annual study of English football club finances. Its analysts have crunched the 2022-23 accounts of the 92 clubs in the top four divisions and, as last year, paint a picture of a fragile system with clubs heavily indebted to their owners and each other. Some 86% of teams were loss-making. Net debt across the system increased by 27% to £7.1bn.
Most striking in this year’s LCP report is the deterioration in the financial health of clubs in League One and Two. Within two years, aggregate annual losses in League One almost trebled from £44m to £121m, and in League Two jumped from just £2m to £35m. The authors attribute this in part to a Wrexham effect, with club owners striving to match the ambition of the Welsh team’s celebrity backers.
“The gambling for promotion culture previously seen primarily in the Championship now seems to be spreading to Leagues One and Two, where losses and debt levels are spiralling.”
Take a look at the list of Wrexham’s sponsors. They include United Airlines as shirt sponsor and HP as “global technology partner”. Average attendance across all matches in Leagues One and Two last year was around 9,000. No wonder you don’t find global tech giants clamouring to back the other 47 teams in these divisions.
The Wrexham phenomenon is not all bad given the boost in interest it has generated for the lower divisions but there are concerns for the sustainability of clubs given the recent surge in their losses and debt levels. These trends also strengthen the Premier League’s hand in resisting pressure to funnel an increased share of its TV revenue down into the lower leagues.
The leading clubs have already been arguing that any extra money may simply be squandered on players. LCP’s data can only reinforce that line of resistance, highlighting as it does the propensity of owners to chase short-term sporting success at the expense of their clubs’ long-term health.
It seems certain now that an independent football regulator will be established over the coming months. Although it might seem perverse for an industry revolving around the pursuit of victory, the new regulator’s core task will be to protect supporters from over-ambitious owners with shallow pockets. There is clearly a growing list of lower league clubs in urgent need of such protection.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton and Thirsk on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield and over the jumps at Stratford
- Football, UEFA Nations League matches include the Republic of Ireland v England.
- NFL, the start of the new season.
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship Matches include South Africa v New Zealand
- Golf, the Napa Valley Golf Championship on the USPGA and the Irish Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the Davis Cup continues
NFL 2024
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Free Tip
Rugby Championship South Africa v New Zealand 4pm Saturday Cape Town
South Africa remain unbeaten after their first three games of the 2024 Rugby Championship after winning first game of their All Black double header in Johannesburg last weekend 31-27 from 27-17 down with 15 minutes to go.
After that result New Zealand have 1 win from 3 games with this match in Cape Town and two Australia matches to come in Sydney and Wellington, both of which they would be expected to win.
New Zealand controlled most of last weekend’s match but were undone by a lack of impact from their inexperienced bench especially from the forwards, in sharp contrast to the contribution made by the South Africa’s “Bomb Squad” who led the way as they came back to win.
The All Blacks were in the lead for 81% of the game and outscored the hosts 4 tries to 3 but for the second time in three games, the bench lost the game for the All Blacks. They failed to match the intensity and pace of Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams and Eben Etzebeth, and they allowed the Springboks to overturn a 10-point lead in the final quarter. New Zealand scored their last points in the 58th minute.
As stated in recent columns New Zealand rugby has been hollowed out having lost playing resources in the first year of a new World Cup cycle by retirements and defections by the financial rewards on offer to play in Japan and France. They are also building a new style under a new Head Coach Scott Robertson. The result is they have a competitive first fifteen but less so for the whole 23 in a match-day squad.
For this weekend the troubling thing for the All Blacks is the Springboks are unlikely to play any worse than they did last weekend in an error-strewn performance and a chaotic game.
South Africa went off last weekend 7 point favourites and won by 4. This weekend they start five point favourites and I expect them to cover.
11 points South Africa -5 points at 10/11 generally.
Capitals
The owners of the Delhi Capitals have agreed a £120m deal to buy Hampshire in a historic move in which they will become the first county to be owned by an overseas franchise. The deal includes a 51% stake in the Southern Brave, with the option to complete a 100% takeover of the Hundred franchise.
The Delhi owners GMR Group are understood to have beaten a second bid from rival Indian Premier League franchise Lucknow Super Giants
Hampshire’s value appears to have risen during the negotiating process from a starting point of around £100mn, an increase which reflects the ECB’s decision to gift them a 51% stake in Southern Brave. The high valuation is also down to an impressive upcoming international fixture list including an Ashes Test match for Hampshire in 2027, while the Utilita Bowl will also host an India Test in 2029, another Test the following year and eight England white-ball matches between 2025 and 2031. In addition to buying the club, GMR will also take control of the Utilita Bowl, a Hilton hotel and a golf course all on the same site near Southampton.
The takeover by GMR, which also owns 50% of the Dubai Capitals in the United Arab Emirates’ ILT20 and Seattle Orcas in America’s Major League Cricket, is hugely significant for English cricket as it puts the Indian franchise in a strong position to become the first outright owners of a Hundred team.
In addition to significant investment the impending takeover opens up the possibility of Hampshire gaining access to some of Delhi Capitals’ players, particularly their youngsters. Whilst the Board of Control for Cricket in India [BCCI] does not currently permit Indians to play in the Hundred, that is likely to change if Delhi buy into the competition.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st August- 1st September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Chester and Sandown, on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Lingfield and over the jumps at Newton Abbot
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool.
- Cricket, T20 Blast Quarter-Finals next week.
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship Matches include South Africa v New Zealand
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.
- Golf, the Napa Valley Golf Championship on the USPGA and the European Masters on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the US Open continues
NFL 2024
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Free Tip
T20 Blast Quarter Finals Surrey v Durham 6pm Tuesday
Since the advent of The Hundred the T20 Blast, much loved by core county cricket supporters, has been somewhat marginalised in terms of profile and hamstrung by scheduling.
With all of August given over to The Hundred the knockout stages of The Blast now take place some six weeks after the conclusion of the Group stages. As a result of further scheduling difficulties, as we’ll see, its not always possible to expect that Group stage form will transfer across to the knock-out stages, compared to a few years ago when the knockouts followed immediately after the Group Stages with Finals day at Edgbaston in high summer, one of the highlights of the domestic cricketing calendar.
The four Quarter-Finals next week take place between Tuesday and Friday and are sandwiched between the second and third Sri Lanka Test matches and a 3T20I/5ODI series against Australia, which is completely superfluous but part of the arrangement the big three in world cricket have made that one of India and Australia come over once a year.
Surrey have strength in depth in their squad but face team selection issues for this game. Currently they have four players in the Test team (Pope, Lawrence, Smith, Atkinson) and five have been announced in the T20/ODI series teams (Atkinson, Jacks, Sam Curran, Smith, Topley).That list features two of Surrey’s three top T20 run scorers this year and their top wicket taker. We don’t know yet which will be allowed to play in the Quarter-Finals by the ECB. The Test players must be very unlikely. Missing Jacks and Sam Curran too would be a big blow, if it happens.
In addition the two overseas players that featured for Surrey in the Group stages, Sean Abbott and Spencer Johnson are both in the Australia squads and won’t feature.
Looking back to the Group stages Surrey finished top of the South Group with 9 wins in their 14 matches. They will have the strength in depth to be able to field a strong side of course, probably more vulnerable in batting than seam bowling but as luck would have it come up against a dangerous opponent.
Durham crept through in fourth place from the North Group with seven wins, winning their last game to get in when Leicestershire lost a concurrent “win and in” game.
Across all formats Durham are a fast developing team and a top five of opener Graham Clark (322 runs in the blast this year with two hundreds, Alex Lees, Australian Ashton Turner, Colin Ackermann and South African Test batsman David Bedingham is a threat
The bowling department will miss Matthew Potts on England duty but features relatively low-profile/unfashionable but good performers such as 20 wicket Ben Raine and the spinners Nathan Sowter (20 T20 wickets in the competition this year) and Callum Parkinson (16 wickets).
Durham definitely have a decent chance of the upset here at prices of 6/4 and above.
15 points Durham to beat Surrey at 8/5 William Hill, 6/4 Bet365, BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook
Gold
Team Great Britain finished Paris 2024 with 65medals, beating their total from Tokyo by one. The total matches the team's medal haul from London 2012 and is the joint-third-highest for Team GB at a single Games behind Rio 2016 (67 medals) and London 1908 (146). However the team did get eight fewer golds than they did three years ago in Tokyo. 14 golds was only good enough for seventh in the medal table, our lowest placing since Athens 2004 following a third placed finish in London, second in Rio and fourth in Tokyo.
Before the era of National Lottery funding began Sir Steve Redgrave and Matthew Pinsent won the rowing men's coxless pair at Atlanta 1996 for Great Britain’s only gold.
Looking beyond gold medals alone, Team GB finished third on the total medals table, the measurement of success of choice of the USA and it’s Olympic broadcaster NBC.
This time round there were a number of close calls (in high profile athletics events the silvers of Josh Kerr and Matthew Hudson-Smith being prime examples) between finishing second and first which is the variance of single events from games to games.
On medals our top sport was cycling, but on golds alone rowing was Team GB's best sport at Paris 2024. Rowing last topped GB's medal table at Atlanta in 1996. Equestrian events were GB's third-best sport based on golds.
UK Sport awarded £245,837,685 of funding for the Paris Olympic cycle. It means each GB medal cost, on average, £3,782,118. Cycling received £29,314,683, the most funding for any sport, followed by rowing (£23,794,482) and sailing (£22,800,520). Hockey (£13,689,907) had the most funding of any sport in which GB did not win a medal in Paris.
The cheapest medal was Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe’s silver, a first medal for GB in artistic swimming. Artistic swimming received just £467,250 from UK Sport.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Goodwood, Newmarket, Redcar, Windsor and York and over the jumps at Cartmel.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Aston Villa v Arsenal.
- Cricket, The second test between England-and Sri Lanka at Lords next week.
- Formula One, the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.
- Golf, the Tour Championship on the USPGA and the British Masters at the Belfry on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the US Open begins
NFL 2024
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Free Tip
Netherlands Grand Prix, Zandvoort, Sunday 2pm
Last year Max Verstappen won 21 of 22 Grand Prix and the 2024 season began in the same vein, as he won 7 of the first 10 races.
From that point on, results have been much more mixed. Six different drivers have won races since Miami for four different teams. Mercedes, winless for two years, have won three races, plus McLaren and Ferrari.
This is a result of two factors, upgrades by the chasing teams and secondly compared to last year’s all-conquering car this year’s the Red Bull is harder to push to the limit and operates less consistently in all conditions.
The result is that McLaren now only trail Red Bull by 42 points in the Constructors Championship having outscored Red Bull over the last four Grand Prix weekends. Of course having two drivers near the head of affairs compared to Red Bull with Perez so often struggling to perform is a big factor.
In the Drivers Championship Lando Norris is still 78 points behind Verstappen with 10 races/3 sprint weekends to go, so still a significant deficit.
He has only one win this season but 8 podiums, second only to Verstappen. McLaren have been quick everywhere, whereas last year’s car performed well only at certain circuits, notably those with high speed corners.
Oscar Piastri has outscored Norris in three of the last four races as Norris has suffered from slow starts and tangles at the front with Verstappen with a win, two seconds and a fourth from the Austrian Grand Prix onwards.
This race at Zandvoort as the teams return from their summer break is obviously in Verstappen’s back yard where he will be roared on by thousands of fans.
Nevertheless race win odds have Verstappen and Norris as 2/1 joint favourites ahead of Piastri 11/2 and the Mercedes pair of Hamilton and Russell at 10/1. Each way odds are available at 1/5 1,2,3 and it is this market that appeals to me for Piastri on value grounds. I like McLaren to win the race and don’t see why Norris would be much shorter than Piatri given their current form, perhaps Norrish has slightly faster qualifying pace so might start ahead but that’s about it.
8 points each-way Oscar Piastri to win the Dutch Grand Prix at 11/2 (1/5 1,2,3) with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
Crowded House
England’s hectic 2025 schedule has seen a three-match ODI series away to Ireland shunted from June to September.
According to the ICC’s Future Tours Programme (2023-27), England were due to squeeze a short trip to Ireland into the middle of a packed 2025 international summer. But the series has been moved from June, in the middle of England’s Test series against India, to late September.
The move highlights the difficulty facing any coach coming in to replace Matthew Mott in charge of England’s white-ball teams. The packed schedule makes it unlikely that the new coach will have any more access than Mott to multi-format players for the bilateral series that can be so crucial for building cohesion ahead of a World Cup.
The schedule change reveals the difficulty of fitting everything into an extraordinarily busy year for England in 2025. The schedule is being finalised and is expected to be announced in August. From May next year, England’s players will be playing relentlessly until the following March, including an Ashes series.
The home summer begins with a one-off Test against Zimbabwe at Trent Bridge. The series is likely to clash with the latter stages of the Indian Premier League, which could affect the availability of some England players.
England then face India in five Tests that will run along similar dates to the Ashes in 2023. It is likely to be over by early August at the latest, at which point the Hundred runs begins.
England also have a packed white-ball international schedule. In June, West Indies visit for three ODIs and three T20s and after the Hundred, South Africa also visit for three ODIs and T20s.
England will need to carefully manage their resources across the summer or risk their players arriving in Australia for the Ashes exhausted. While the five Tests in Australia are the only red-ball cricket in the 2025/26, England also have a busy white-ball schedule. In October 2025, they are due in New Zealand for three ODIs and three T20s, before travelling to Sri Lanka after the Ashes for three more ODIs and three T20s. After that, in February and March, they have a T20 World Cup in India.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.
- Football, the start of the Premier League season including Chelsea v Manchester City.
- Cricket, The Eliminator and Final of the Hundred and the start of the England-Sri Lanka Test series next week.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa
- Golf, the BMW Championship on the USPGA and the Danish Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Winston-Salem Open in North Carolina
York Ebor Festival 21st-24th August
Get all of Neil’s write ups & bets for the 4 day festival for £125 here.
NFL 2024
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Rugby Championship New Zealand v Argentina 8.05am Saturday Auckland
In one of the shock results of the rugby year Argentina opened their Rugby Championship with a 38-30 win over the All-Blacks in Wellington last weekend, the most points New Zealand have ever conceded in a Test match in New Zealand.
All Blacks’ winless run in Wellington continues and they have now won there only once in the past seven Tests and are winless in that city in their last five encounters.
Last weekend Argentina outscored their hosts by four tries to three with a team containing few players from the top European teams and despite their talent in areas such as the back row, centres and wings with weaknesses at prop and scrumhalf. The Wellington win secured their third victory in four years against the All Blacks all coming outside of Argentina.
For the All Blacks now that new coach Scott Robertson’s perfect start is no more the defeat has very much put the pressure on ahead of the second clash at Eden Park this weekend.
For Argentina a match in Auckland is a completely different prospect. In Auckland the All Blacks are unbeaten for Forty-eight test matches, with two draws sprinkled in amongst 46 victories since France defeated Sean Fitzpatrick’s side on in July 1994.
That said the All Blacks have both cyclical and structural issues to contend with. It’s a new four-year World Cup cycle with a new coach and recent senior player retirements. The result can be seen for example in the second row where New Zealand currently select Sam Darry and Tupou Vaa’I, a completely different prospect from Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, plus a comparatively weak bench full of inexperienced players at international level.
Structurally many players have been lost to the financial rewards on offer in Japan and France and player pathways such as the U20s and sevens teams aren’t currently delivering high quality young replacements, who are having to learn on the job, for these players.
That said I expect New Zealand to bounce back and win the game. What I can’t get behind is a spread of New Zealand -14 a week after losing to the same opponent by eight points.
11 points Argentina +14 points versus New Zealand at 10/11 generally
Hundreds and Thousands
The 3-0 victory over the West Indies in July was the start of an 18 month lead up to an away Ashes series in the winter of 2025.
Mark Wood’s match-winning spell in the third test on a slow flat pitch promised much with England moving towards creating an attack that can thrive the world over and not just in typical English conditions.
For almost the first time in Wood’s Test career, this summer he has played alongside another man capable of reaching 90mph regularly: Gus Atkinson. With 22 wickets in three matches Atkinson had a superb start to his Test career.
He also enjoyed the extra bounce when presented with the new ball after James Anderson’s retirement. Should Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue return to full fitness and John Turner advance to the Test set-up England might conceivably take to Australia five quick bowlers who can reach 90mph. Such pace is the best way to run through lower orders.
Alongside Wood and Atkinson, England’s third specialist quick against West Indies was a different type of bowler. Chris Woakes is a veteran master of swing, seam and accuracy. After a slow start to the series 11 wickets at 21 vindicated England’s decision to retain him while discarding Anderson. Matthew Potts, in the squad but not used in the series, shares similar traits to Woakes with the ball.
There was more good news for this new look bowling attack in the spin bowling department. The flight, drift, turn and bounce that Shoaib Bashir demonstrated at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston illustrated why England have made him their first choice.
All of England’s bowlers were helped by Ben Stokes’s return to bowling fitness. Stokes was able to fulfil the workload expected of a fifth bowler for the first time in two years following knee problems. This means that Atkinson and Wood can be protected from long spells and that Bashir does not have to be used in the most pace-friendly conditions. Now of course another challenge awaits with Stokes injured for the rest of the summer.
On the most recent Ashes tours in 2017 and 2021 England fielded four right-arm seamers bowling around 80mph. Anderson, Stuart Broad and Woakes played in both series supported by Craig Overton in 2017 and Ollie Robinson four years later. Both attacks were same-y and below optimal for hard fast pitches.
England’s selection this summer has been designed to ensure that never again do they take such a “vanilla” attack Down Under. The five-man attack unleashed on West Indies is the template that England will hope to follow in Australia.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
