Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th September
Coming up this weekend
- Football, European Championship Qualifying, with England hosting Bulgaria and Kosovo this week
- Racing, Flat racing at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford
- NFL Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test Match at Old Trafford continues, with the fifth and final test at the Oval starting next Thursday.
- F1, The Italian Grand Prix at Monza
- Golf, On the European Tour the Porsche European Open in Germany and the KLM Open in the Netherlands
- Tennis, the final weekend of the US Open
- Rugby Union, World Cup Warm Up Internationals continue with England v Italy
NFL 2019
The week by week season package costs £50 and is available here
The first write up is out today/tomorrow
Rugby World Cup - (20th Sep - 2nd Nov 2019)
The RWC 2019 is approaching. In 2015 the package won 112.4 points with a +ROI of 28.3%. The full package, ante post and match write ups with details of all our bets is £50 and you can sign up here
Free Tip
England v Italy St James Park
World Cup warm up, Sky Sports Friday 7.45pm
England conclude their warm up games for the upcoming World Cup in Newcastle on Friday night. England scored eight tries when they thrashed Italy 57-14 during the Six Nations earlier this year, and during these warm ups beat Wales at home, lost narrowly to Wales away and beat Ireland 57-15 at Twickenham when they had a fitness and cohesion advantage with the two teams at different stages of training camps.
Italy, with the unenviable task of a World Cup group with New Zealand and South Africa looming, haven’t won a game against a Tier One opponent since 2016. Improvements are occurring under head coach Conor O’Shea, particularly being manifested at Academy level and in the performances of the Pro 14 franchises which bodes well for the years ahead but at senior International level as fast as Italy improve, their major opponents progress alongside.
In this year’s Six Nations they conceded 167 points having conceded 200-225 in each of the previous years and in spells in four of their five games (England being the exception) looked very competitive and lost those four games by 13,11,10 and 11 points. In their Paris warm up match last week though, France beat them 47-19
As the handicap line for this match shows, England -30, it would be a stretch to expect them to get close to England and England’s approach that has been developing with ball-winning number sevens looking to recycle quick ball and play expansively to finishers out wide should suit these types of matches even with a mix and match selection strategy. Whether they will be able to do so against the top few teams is a separate issue.
In terms of England’s wingers, Nowell is injured so alongside the established Jonny May, who is one of the favourites to be the top try scorer in the World Cup, Bath’s Joe Cokanasiga has three tries in the three matches he has played in the warm up matches
For this match England finally play Bath’s Ruaridh McConnochie as part of a seriously quick back three alongside May and Anthony Watson.
Jonny May isn’t a particularly imaginative choice in try scorer markets but in what should be a comfortable victory its likely he will get plenty of opportunities. He has 24 tries in 45 tests, including four in the most recent Six Nations.
8 points Jonny May first try scorer England v Italy 5-1 BetfairSportsbook/Paddy Power 19/4 Bet365
Archer
In Test Cricket the best teams all have “go to” bowlers who Captains know will come into the match situation and possibly change the course of the match. Bowlers like Bumrah, Rabada, Boult, Yasir Shah and Starc come into the category. In mostly English conditions England have had Anderson and Broad to do that too.
It’s early days, but it looks as if England have a generational talent on their hands in Jofra Archer who might be able to do it in all conditions. At Lords in the second test his bowling averaged 142 kph on a hard surface and his spells that felled Smith and discomfited all others changed the tone of the whole series. In the next match at Headingley he used his brain, turned down the pace to an average of 138kph and tried to maximise the impact of the seam and the conditions in which he was bowling. Playing all of his first class cricket in England has given him an appreciation of tracks that provide assistance and others which don't, and not many young fast bowlers have that nous. They look to run in, blast away and don’t have the nuance of approach that Archer has..
After his 6-43 in the first innings at Headingley he said "I don't need to run in and bowl 90mph every spell to get wickets. It's shown that today. There will be times in Test matches you have to focus on hitting your length. There will be times to ramp it up as well but you don't have to go into it every innings."
David Warner drew comparisons with Dale Steyn.
"It's a bit like how Dale Steyn with the new ball tried to just use the conditions and then sort of ramp it up when they need to," he said. "Today was world class bowling at its best."
The interesting part now, as we are in the early stages of England fast bowling passing the mantle from the Anderson/Broad generation to Archer is what happens next. Archer's bowled a third of England's overs at Lord's and is not the type to turn down the opportunity to bowl if asked. Yet such is the quantity of cricket across all formats (and potentially Archer could be playing all formats for England, plus franchise series the world over) that over-use has to be a worry.
His captain needs to try to keep expectations in check and the selectors need to build bowling line ups around Archer much as Australia do around Cummins in this series, where the strike bowler is complimented by steadier bowlers such as Hazlewood and Siddle who can take a number of overs and contribute, even if it has meant excluding Starc to ensure the correct balance in attacks.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th August to 1st September
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Tottenham
- Racing, Flat racing at Beverley, Chelmsford City, Chester, Lingfield, Sandown and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Newton Abbot
- NFL The new season begins next Thursday
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test Match between England and Australia at Old Trafford begins next Wednesday
- F1, The Belgian Grand Prix at Spa
- Golf, On the USPGA the Shaw Charity Classic and on the European Tour Omega European Masters in Switzerland
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the US Open
- Rugby Union, World Cup Warm Up Internationals continue with Wales v Ireland
NFL 2019 What to expect and FREE Ante-Post reports
The 2019 season will see changes in Betting Emporium’s coverage of the NFL.
The week by week season package costs £50, starts next week and is available here
Rugby World Cup - (20th Sep - 2nd Nov 2019)
The RWC 2019 is also approaching. In 2015 the package won 112.4 points with a +ROI of 28.3%. The full package, ante post and match write ups with details of all our bets is £50 and you can sign up here
Free tip
League One Oxford United v Coventry (Saturday 3pm)
Oxford United finished 12th in League One last year, a respectable result given a turbulent off the field situation at the club (accounts released this week showed an £11m excess of liabilities over assets), having been the subject of three winding up attempts by the Kassam Stadium landlord and a steady departure of the better players to head off financial concerns the latest being Gavin Whyte to Cardiff in the summer.
Oxford have an absentee owner, have been paying staff late and loanees from last season who had the chance to re-join this declined to do so.
This off season there was no new squad investment apart from young free transfers and loans, such as Ben Woodburn from Liverpool.
So far this season Oxford have won 1 of five games and have four points conceding ten goals, and might be fortunate that Bury and Bolton’s problems mean effectively there are only two relegation spots left to fill.
Coventry were promoted in 2017-18 via the play offs and finished eighth last season in their first season back in League one. So far this season it is shaping up promisingly with three wins and two draws in five games in which they have only conceded three goals. England U19 international Jordy Hiwula is the top scorer with 3 goals so far.
Looking at the prices for this game Oxford are 6/4 favourites, the Draw 12/5 and Coventry available at 2/1. That 2/1 feels very interesting indeed given the form of the two sides
10 points Coventry City to win at Oxford United 2/1 Betfred and BetVictork
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Arsenal
- Racing, Flat racing at Chelmsford, Goodwood, Newmarket, Redcar, Windsor and York and over the jumps at Cartmel
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test Match continues at Headingley
- Golf, On the USPGA the Tour Championship at East Lake GC and on the European Tour the Scandinavian Invitational in Sweden
- Tennis, ATP Winstom-Salem in North Carolina ahead of the US Open
- Rugby Union, World Cup Warm Up Internationals continue with England v Ireland and Scotland v France
NFL 2019 What to expect and FREE Ante-Post reports
The 2019 season will see changes in Betting Emporium’s coverage of the NFL. See Neil’s explanation and the FREE ante post write ups here
The week by week season package costs £50 and is available here
US Open Tennis (26th August -8th Sept 2019) by Nigel Seeley
The Mens and Womens draws take place today The package for Flushing Meadow costs £50. Sign up here
Rugby World Cup - (20th Sep - 2nd Nov 2019)
The RWC 2019 is also approaching. In 2015 the package won 112.4 points with a +ROI of 28.3%. The full package, ante post and match write ups with details of all our bets is £50 and you can sign up here
Free Tip
T20 Blast cricket Somerset v Glamorgan Saturday 7pm Taunton (SkySports)
A couple of weeks ago we tried Somerset. Babar hit a hundred on the Friday night and failed when recommended for the Saturday. His opening partner Banton failed on the Friday and top scored on the Saturday.
Writing ahead of Somerset’s trip to Gloucestershire to play on Friday. Somerset have a 5-4-1 record with four games to go, fifth in the South group table with four to qualify. Glamorgan meanwhile have won 1 game lost six and had a whopping four no results.
Against bottom of the table opponents this is an ideal opportunity for the openers Babar and Banton to make hay again.
So far this season in nine T20 matches Babar has 434 runs off 284 balls with a hundred and three fifties. Banton has 396 runs off 245 balls also with a hundred and three fifties. The next highest Somerset run scorer is Abell with 217 runs. Glamorgan have only one bowler, Salter who has taken more than five wickets in their seven games.
Career-wise Babar has scored 1247 runs in 30 T20 internationals and has scored 50+ in a third of his innings. Banton is a huge talent, likely to be fast tracked into the England one day set up for starters though to date he has only played 12 career T20 games. In those 12 games he has scored 438 runs and hit 18 sixes.
Outright prices unsurprisingly are in the region of Somerset 1/2 and Glamorgan 6/4. Babar is now, since we last looked at the pair in this column, into 6/4 Top Somerset batsman and Banton 100/30. Babar is the lower variance choice, but Banton looks better value for this one.
8 points Tom Banton Top Somerset batsman (Sartuday v Glamorgan) 100/30 Bet365 and William Hill
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham
- Racing, Flat racing at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test Match continues at Lords
- Golf, On the USPGA the BMW Championship at Medinah and on the European Tour the D+D Real Masters in the Czech Republic.
- Tennis, ATP +WTA Cincinnati
- Rugby Union, England play Wales and New Zealand play Australia in 2019 Rugby World Cup warm up Internationals
York Ebor Festival - Full Package (21st - 24th August 2019) By Neil Channing
Results for the last three packages are as follows. At Goodwood we won £1630 (to £10 a point bets) with an ROI +17.80% Royal Ascot +£790 +8.22% ROI and at Aintree +£2317 +39.8% ROI, The package for York costs £99 Sign up here
NFL 2019 What to expect and FREE Ante-Post reports
The 2019 season will see changes in Betting Emporium’s coverage of the NFL. See Neil’s explanation and the FREE ante post write ups are now live here
The week by week season package costs £50 and is available here
US Open Tennis (26th August -8th Sept 2019) by Nigel Seeley
The package for Flushing Meadow costs £50. Sign up here
Free tip
New Zealand v Australia (Second Bledisloe Cup Match) Auckland 8.35am Saturday SkySports
2019, being a Rugby World Cup year, sees the Bledisloe Cup cut to two matches and the first game last Saturday saw a big upset with the Australians winning 47-26 against a New Zealand side reduced to 14 men for more than half the match after Scott Barrett’s sending off.
Australia, irrespective of their numerical advantage, were good value for the win whilst New Zealand’s preparation for the upcoming World Cup has seen them with only one win in their last four games against Tier one countries, only winning 33% of matches overall in 2019 and now suffering their equal biggest ever defeat. As a result they are close to losing their number one world ranking for the first time in ten years
In part New Zealand have been experimenting (playmaking pair of Beauden Barrett now being played at fullback and Richie Mo’unga introduced at flyhalf in particular) but in part it is fair to question whether they might not be the force of old, with the current squad lacking some experience and the significant loss of Brodie Retallick through injury.
For Australia the six-try showing was a vindication of Michael Cheika’s experimental team selection. The recalled James O’Connor, whose vision and ball playing ability saw him combine with Reece Hodge to set up the winger for two tries. O’Connor never looked out of place in his first test start at 13, showing Australia what the Wallabies’ back-line could look like with a natural ball player in wide channels within a strategy of keeping ball in hand rather than kicking for territory.
The second Bledisloe Cup Match takes place at Eden Park Auckland on Saturday morning our time. It’s been 18 games dating back to 1986 since Australia last won at Eden Park, while the All Blacks’ last loss at the ground came against France in 1994. Expect the All Blacks to be at full strength and go full pelt to try to arrest a mini-slump ahead of the World Cup.
New Zealand have been installed as 14 point favourites for the game on the handicap, which seems on the aggressive side not withstanding the venue and the home team’s motivation. I think it will be closer than that though it would be a(nother) huge surprise if the Wallabies won it. New Zealand to win by 13+ is odds on and I will take that on.
8 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points 12/5 Betfair Sportsbook, 9/4 PaddyPower, 7/4 Betfred
Nearly time for the Rugby World Cup
In September I will be covering the 2019 Rugby World Cup, with outright and sub-market previews then game-by-game hoping to repeat or better 2015’s results when the Betting Emporium RWC Package returned £1124 profit to a £10 stake and a ROI of 28.3%
As a taste of what is to come here is a look at the 2019 Grand Slam winners Wales who looked to have peaked in terms of forma nd squad depth in a world cup year. He has developed depth while tweaking a few tactics building on the style that makes Wales so difficult to beat, primarily via a disciplined defensive structure.
Before the 2019 Grand Slam Wales had a clean-sweep in the Autumn Internationals, featuring victories over South Africa and Australia significant because of Wales’ poor record against New Zealand, the Springboks and the Wallabies over the past 12 years.
Since Gatland’s appointment in December 2007, they have won seven of 41 Test meetings with those three teams, five from 15 against South Africa, two from 15 against Australia and none from 11 against the All Blacks. Excluding those fixtures Wales have 72 victories and two draws from 99 matches.
There are a few potential reasons for such a marked discrepancy. Gatland has admitted that Wales build momentum and cohesion during tournaments as they spend more time with one another. That bodes well for a World Cup campaign.
Another possible factor is that Wales thrive off the emotion that close rivalries generate. You could suggest that the dynamism and skills of southern hemisphere opposition pose a more difficult challenge that exposes Wales’ limitations as well.
Their group comprises Australia, Georgia, Fiji and Uruguay. Top it (them or Australia the realistic candidates) and they will face the runner-up of Pool C (England, France, Argentina, USA and Tonga) in a quarter-final, with one of either Ireland or South Africa probably at the semi-final stage.
If Wales and New Zealand both win their respective groups, they go onto opposite sides of the draw so the group match against Australia is key.
Wales scored 10 tries in the 2019 Six Nations, which put them level with Italy at the bottom of that count. England (24 tries), Ireland, Scotland (14 tries each) and France (12 tries) all managed more. Wales did though concede only 13 points per match in the Six Nations but will not keep every opponent below that figure in Japan. So, they need to keep honing their attack.
Compromising for a lack of explosiveness in their pack in the Six Nations, Wales opted for efficiency. Wales’ contact skills enable them to have long periods of ball retention. Josh Adams and George North came in from their wings to help out, while fellow backs Hadleigh Parkes and Liam Williams cut angles off scrum-half Gareth Davies close to rucks. Fly-halves Gareth Anscombe (injured in the recent warm-up match at Twickenham) and Dan Biggar stood back and scanned.
Gatland’s rotation over the past year or so, plus the clarity of Wales’ tactical approach, means that individuals can slot in and out of most positions without impacting the collective. That said Alun Wyn Jones and Jonathan Davies are as close to irreplaceable as it gets for the side.
Wales are currently 8-1 fifth favourites for the World Cup. Not the worst price you will ever see.
Rugby World Cup - (20th Sep - 2nd Nov 2019)
The full package, ante post and match write ups with details of all our bets is £50 and you can sign up here
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the start of the Premier League Season
- Racing, Flat racing at Ascot, Ayr, Chelmsford, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar
- Golf, On the USPGA The Northern Trust Open at Liberty National and on the European Tour the Shot Clock Challenge
- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Montreal
- Rugby Union, The final round of the 2019 Rugby Championship and England play Wales in a 2019 Rugby World Cup warm up International
York Ebor Festival - Full Package (21st - 24th August 2019) By Neil Channing
Results for the last three packages are as follows. At Goodwood we won £1630 (to £10 a point bets) with an ROI +17.80% Royal Ascot +£790 +8.22% ROI and at Aintree +£2317 +39.8% ROI, The package for York costs £99 Sign up here
NFL 2019 What to expect and FREE Ante-Post reports
The 2019 season will see changes in Betting Emporium’s coverage of the NFL. See Neil’s explanation and the FREE ante post write ups (Part One: Teams, divisions and Superbowl part is now live). here
The week by week season package costs £50 and is available here
Rugby World Cup - (20th Sep - 2nd Nov 2019)
The RWC 2019 is also approaching. In 2015 the package won 112.4 points with a +ROI of 28.3%. The full package, ante post and match write ups with details of all our bets is £50 and you can sign up here
Free tip
Vitality T20 Blast Somerset v Kent (Taunton Saturday 7pm Sky Sports)
Halfway through the group stages in the T20 Blast and Somerset and Kent meet in Taunton on Saturday evening.
Kent so far have a 6-2 record, Somerset 3-4 and outright prices here are Somerset 4/7 Kent 11/8. As it’s a televised game a wider range of markets are available compared to a usual game. So with that in mind:
Taunton is one of the smaller grounds on the circuit. So far this season in the three T20 games played there scores have been 207-2, 184 and 174. Somerset are a high powered batting team too, they scored 225 at Chelmsford in beating Essex on Wednesday night. I am writing before Somerset play away at Hampshire on Friday night
In Taunton’s benign batting conditions Somerset’s opening pair have led the way, albeit the bowling line up has struggled to contain opposing sides. The opening pair is Pakistan’s Babar Azam and 20 year old Tom Banton.
In the seven games so far Babar has scored 323 runs off 219 balls with three fifties. Banton 295 runs off 198 balls with three fifties also. A measure of their contribution is that the next highest scorer, Hildreth batting at three, has 117 runs
Babar is a class player. He has 10 International fifties in 30 T20 appearances and 30 in 130 career T20 games. Banton came through the Warwickshire Academy and was the England U19 Captain. He is only 10 games into his Somerset T20 career but is definitely a name to watch, a very talented ball striker who plays the modern way, going from the off and not dying wondering. As such he would be a higher variance play than the classy Babar, but of course we get a bigger price to compensate
In the Somerset top batsman market for Saturday Babar is 5/2 favourite and Banton 16/5 in a place 3/1generally. It’s 9/2 bar the front 2. My preference is Babar at 5/2, it just looks a rock solid price, unfortunately only available at the time of writing with William Hill but please check other firms on Saturday if that’s no good for you
10 points Babar Azam Top Somerset batsman v Kent Saturday 5/2 William Hill
Capped
With the 32 NFL teams now in training camp and beginning pre-season matches, four weeks away from the start of a regular season the season which will be played out against the background of negotiations for a new Player-League Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), last agreed in 2011, that has already caused ructions with players due contract extensions (Bell last season, Gordon and Elliott this) in some cases unwilling to commit to long term deals in anticipation of a much larger salary cap when the CBA is completed
In part that is because of the way the NFL contract landscape has developed. In the NBA, MLB or the NHL, a contract that says it is worth $80 million is worth that. In contrast NFL player contracts with secure money beyond the early, low-risk years of the deal are rare. Virtually every NFL free agent contract signed in this past off-season subjects the player to being released in 2020 or 2021 with the team owing no money.
What will it take for players to achieve more secure contracts? Firstly Individual agents need to push on guarantees when they are negotiating contracts for players playing at their peak, pushing past certainly two, and hopefully three years of security. Agents need to create a precedent that currently doesn’t exist and shift the advantage in those years toward the players and away from the teams.
As for the the NFLPA, it needs to prioritise augmenting minimum spending requirements of the CBA. The current CBA requirement of spending minimums of 89% of the salary cap over a four-year period allows teams a lot of latitude to under-spend. Were the union to achieve a 95% of cap minimum spending threshold over a two-year period (instead of four currently), player spending would rise significantly, as would leverage toward guaranteed contract years.
As it is the NFL and NFLPA face a big task ahead to avoid a lockout ahead of the expiry of the current deal at the end of 2020, with the players agitating for a far greater share of revenue that for the league now exceeds $15bn and with each team receiving league payments of $270m per annum, The NFL’s current salary cap is $188m and in 2011 the players received 48% of all revenue in the CBA.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
