Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool.
- Racing, On the flat at Newmarket and Newcastle over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby
- NFL, Week Nine of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the start of the Autumn Internationals including England v South Africa
- Golf, the Turkish Airlines Open and on the USPGA the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin.
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Masters in Paris
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip
Autumn Internationals England v South Africa Saturday 3pm
With a year to go until the 2019 World Cup these Autumn Internationals have significance beyond those of a normal year. There are only two groups of fixtures left: the autumn internationals and the Six Nations. After that we are into the World Cup warm-up games, where it should be a case of honing not continued experimentation.
Unfortunately for England they are heavily injury hit, partly an unfortunate combination of circumstances and partly a result of the relentlessly punishing domestic programme and the lack of agreement between the clubs and RFU to rest players (as the Irish national side has).
Injuries aside England go into this autumn campaign with a lot of question-marks anyway. They lost their last three games in the Six Nations in the spring then the first two tests of the South Africa tour in the summer before winning the dead rubber (inspired by Danny Cipriani who doesn’t even make this squad) in Cape Town. After winning their first 17 Tests under coach Eddie Jones, England have lost six out of their past seven games. The result is that a year out from th World Cup Jones is tinkering and experimenting, at a stage in the major tournament cycle where combinations should be settled. Such fluid plans are normally the preserve of the post world cup 18 months with new players introduced with time to bed in.
Even at full strength the questions about England’s style and particularly the personnel in the back row remain. As it is missing both Vunipola’s, Robshaw, Hughes, Launchbury, Lawes and others is a big loss particularly in experience in the forwards.
South Africa meanwhile are on the up a year out from Japan. They’ve just finished second in the Rugby Championship with a famous win in New Zealand, and then running the close at home, along the way.
Typically South African sides are rugged up front and that applies to this team but they have more flair out wide than recent iterations of the side under newish head coach Rassie Erasmus. Part of their improvement is that the talent pool he can choose from is greater than it was due to the relaxation of a selection policy that previously prevented players playing outside South Africa from being picked.
The differences in the two sides are shown in experience and size in the forward packs where England field 165 total caps against 293 and 10 against 100 specifically in the back row. The eight forward players average almost two stone a man lighter too.
Prices here are England 8/11 and South Africa 5/4 or 6/5 and England are -2 at 10/11 on the point spread. My reaction to South Africa being underdogs here was initially “Are you kidding me?”
A night’s sleep later I still I strongly liked South Africa at 6/4 with Bet365 and 2.46 on the exchanges. They are the better team currently, hardened by a competitive summer and their opponents have lots of question-marks. England's price shortened after the teams were announced, which had me perplexed. Even away from home I can’t have South Africa as underdogs on Saturday.
20 points South Africa to beat England 6/4 Bet365 2.46 Betfair and Matchbook
There are football club owners, and then there are football club owners
Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha owned Thailand’s biggest Duty Free stores, King Power. A self made man, he started with a store and his success saw him moved up the ranks of the country’s list of wealthiest people.
Vichai was always a fan of the Premier League. He was a huge fan of Chelsea football club until an incident in 2005. Prior to that, he was a regular with a VIP box at Stamford Bridge. Apart from his frequent appearances at the Bridge. He also supported CFC by spending on an advertising board.
However, in 2005, at a Champions League home game the security at the Bridge was more strict than usual. During security checks a scanner almost hit Vichai’s face in the process. He was unhappy and the situation almost turned nasty until his son had to take him away.
He was extremely disappointed in CFC and how they treated a sponsor and a regular VIP ticket buyer in such manner. Especially when the club did nothing about it. So much so that he submitted letters to the club, but he considered that no real action was taken.Vichai then decided he no longer wanted anything to do with Chelsea. No sponsorship, no tickets. He also told his son this,
“One day, we will buy a football team that will be able to beat Chelsea.”
Everyone thought it was a joke, Vichai didn’t.
In 2007, King Power approached Reading, who were in the Premier League that season. John Madejski was the owner then. He wasn’t interested in Vichai’s offer and said
“If you have no experience in the Football industry, it’s best if you stay out of it, you won’t be successful.”
Three years and many football clubs contacts later, Leicester City approached King Power if they could be their sponsor. So the Thais flew over to discuss this. Only then, something in Vichai’s gut told him that there was something special within this club.
He had his son study Leicester City and the City and analyse the potential. Incidentally, their family once watched Leicester play in 1997 in a league cup final at Wembley. They didn’t believe the sponsorship deal on its own would deliver much value, the club was poorly run and languishing. However Vichai liked LCFC and saw something in it that his advisors didn't.So the first question he asked the then owner, Milan Mandaric, in their meeting was
“Are you interested in selling your football club?”
“Yes” was the response. Mandaric bought LCFC for £25m and sold to Vichai for £37m.
They spent 3 years fixing the organisation of the club, with mistakes made along the way on the field in management and playing staff. LCFC reached the playoffs in 2013. The game where we painfully lost to Watford by a 90+7 min Troy Deeney goal after Knockaert's missed penalty.
The whole football club was in shock, the morale was at its lowest point. Vichai’s son was extremely upset until his father said to him.
“This is life. It’s good that it’s difficult. So we know what it’s like to fail.”
The club took that loss as a lesson.The next season saw Leicester win the Championship. No playoffs required. During their Championship celebration, Vichai told the team.
“Our plan is to be in the top 4 and reach CL in 3 years.”
Everyone laughed.
During the 15/16 season where LCFC won the league the final game of the season was an away game. Traditionally, other team does a Guard of Honour for the title winning side. Guess where the game was at? Stamford Bridge.
In addition to his success, he donated millions to various organisations in the city. The Leicester Royal Infirmary received enormous sums as did the local university for research facilities. Yes, with buying the freehold of the ground, repaying the debt and investment on the field and in managers he spent nearly £200m from day one but that and winning the title is not why you are seeing such an outpouring of grief.
He was loved by the fanbase and widely respected by the City for what he did for the club day to day. Fans would turn up for away trips to see that the owner had given each of them a £5 voucher to use at the away ground at the food kiosks. Home crowds would each be given a beer or a mince pie if it was December. Free scarves were handed out and at all games a word for all sorts of fans were commonplace
Many foreign owners buy teams for financial reasons. Some never get on with the fans. Vichai however, wasn’t one of those owners.The one thing i didn't know I was told after his loss. I had walked past the crash site on my way out of the ground ten minutes before it happened and then on into the City to meet up with a friend. Always on twitter, I was scrolling while i waited and saw the news and refreshed constantly.As various people came in one person, who it turns out was a steward at home games, told those around him of Vichai's regular habit
At each home game, around 2 and half hours before kick off, he would take a decanter of whisky and some glasses and place them in the centre-piece of the club's memorial garden at the back of the West stand for fans to make a toast to lost loved ones. Every single home game. I thought this might be apochryphal so i asked an acquaintance the following day, a local sports journalist. if that might be true? He assured me it was,
Quite the man really.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27-28 October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City on Monday night football.
- Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Kempton and Newbury and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso
- NFL, Week Eight of the 2018 Season
- Cricket, the Sri Lanka England T20 International in Colombo on Saturday
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the Bledisloe Cup between Australia and New Zealand
- Golf, the WGC-HSBC Champions in China and on the USPGA the Sanderson Farm Championship.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Basle and Vienna
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here https://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/230
Free tip
New Zealand v Australia Bledisloe Cup Rugby Saturday 27th October 06.45am BST
The match will be played in Yokohama, Japan, with the All Blacks having already claimed this year’s trophy.
The match is the end of the southern hemisphere season and a prelude to the teams’ tour of Europe starting the week after. New Zealand are fresh off their rugby championship win, a competition in which Australia finished third.
In the two previous Bledisloe cup matches this year New Zealand won 38-13 in Sydney and then a week later 40-12 in Auckland. For this match New Zealand are 2/11 outright, Australia best priced 13/2 and +16 on the points handicap.
The All Blacks have welcomes named one debutant in their squad for the third Test, with Dalton Papalii picked. New Zealand also have Dean Coles, Joe Moody, Brodie Retallick and Liam Squire to pick from after they overcame injury concerns picked up playing domestic rugby. Nehe Milner-Skudder has been left out of the squad.
There are three uncapped players in the Australian squad to play Bledisloe 3, with Rebels forward Angus Cottrell and Waratahs duo Jake Gordon and Jed Holloway all a chance to suit up for the Wallabies for the first time in Japan. Also of note is the inclusion of Jack Dempsey, who’s not been in Australia’s line-up for a year.
Against a side that have won less than 50% of their internationals over the last year and 2 of 6 in the rugby championship i expect New Zealand to cover and don’t see why they shouldn’t win in the 20-30 point region that they have done so far in 2018 home and away
8 points New Zealand to win by 21-30 points 7/2 Betfair/Paddy Power 100/30 Coral/ Ladbrokes
Moving time?
This weekend sees the third of three successive London NFL Weekends with the Eagles/Jaguars game in the 12th season of the league’s International Series. Recently an NFL executive Mark Waller has been commenting that the league has now reached the stage where a London team is getting close. He said on his recent trip to London
“We feel the fan demand is here, we feel the stadium infrastructure and optionality is here, we feel the government support is here. We feel the logistics and training side of it are here. We feel very good. Like I’ve always said, the one we can never test for is how does it work week-in and week-out.”
The idea in the first place was to get a team to London 15 years after launching the project. And while there are four years left on that clock, and it’ll take a team relocating or expansion (the former would be more likely than the latter) for the league to actually pull it off, the possibility of a team is increasing.
This year has inadvertently turned into a new way to test the market for the league. With the Tottenham stadium in which the NFL has invested due to host the Seattle game but not ready the NFL has had the opportunity to test Wembley playing a match on three straight weekends. That also opens a window into plans for the team with a London side likely to play home and away games in blocks.
Whilst the Jaguars owner Shad Khan pulling out of buying Wembley might be seen as a setback, Waller has also mentioned the possibility that a London team could have multiple home stadiums
The biggest difference coming in 2019 is that the London games will be announced at the same time as the rest of the schedule, not ahead of time as had been the custom. It’s another step in an effort to “normalise” these games, and prepare for the possibility that a team will be playing some or all of its home schedule there. As for the 2019 schedule itself, there will be four games, two at Wembley and two at Tottenham.
The idea has also been mooted that a “London team” would play four home games here and four home games in a U.S. city”
What is clear is that the goal of putting a team in London that Waller and company set in 2007 has never been closer.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United.
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick and over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford. All weather racing at Wolverhampton
- NFL, Week Seven of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the second round of pool games in the 2018-19 European Rugby Champions Cup
- Cricket, the Sri Lanka England ODI series continues with the Fourth ODI in Kandy on Saturday
- Golf, the Dominion Energy Charity Classic in Virginia.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Antwerp, Stockholm and the Kremlin Cup in Moscow
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip by Neil Channing
Ascot Champions Day 4.30pm the Balmoral Handicap
I don't have a big opinion in terms of the draw in the Balmoral Handicap, the 4.30 at Ascot, so I'm going to assume it will be fairly random as to which side has an edge, but I can see why you might want to wait and bet during the afternoon when things become clearer, although the results from the earlier races could change the prices.
Flipping the bird
In 2011 the NFL introduced a rookie salary cap as part of its new collective bargaining agreement. Since then first overall draft picks are receiving about $55m less on their rookie deals. After 2011 there was a spending increase on veterans as money came out of rookie pools and was available for elsewhere on the roster but most of it has been spent on quarterbacks and franchise players at other high profile positions, which don’t include running back and safety.
The salary cap is rising about $10 million a year and with that, the record for largest contract in history keeps getting broken. Quarterbacks Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan have all broken the record for salaries in the past eighteen months. The salary cap boom has coincided with the rise in passing (helped by rule changes making it tougher to defend without getting penalised) that has seen scoring and passing records broken in the last five years, the latest being Drew Brees last week.
The 2011 CBA led to an unintended consequence which was that teams soon started to change how they constructed their rosters. The few star players apart they began to get younger and cheaper. Football Outsiders, which tracks the age of NFL players said the average age of a player in 2017 was 26.46, the lowest on record.
With cheap young players being more widely used instead of mid-level veterans, those veterans have lost most of their financial leverage.
Teams have been ruthless with their salary cap management. When a franchise extracts all the value it can from a rookie and then lets him go, that front office is doing well for its team but the players have less opportunity to secure that lucrative second contract. The result has been more player hold outs and whilst not all hold outs fail (Khalil Mack was traded, Aaron Donald was paid) the majority do and players return to play,
The sight of Earl Thomas a future Hall of Famer making an obscene gesture to the Seattle bench when being carried from the field in Arizona with a broken leg a fortnight ago is within the context of this ongoing struggle between teams and players.
The Seahawks got a lot of value for their money from Thomas over eight years which his contract expiring after this year. Since Thomas signed his deal in 2014 the safety market has reset within a much bigger salary cap notably with Eric Berry’s $78 million deal last year with the Chiefs. Thomas, whose deal was worth $40m, wanted an extension or a trade, but the Seahawks wanted neither.
Thomas skipped training camp this summer not wanting to get hurt and then showed up for the first week of the season. Thomas then staged a “hold in” for most of September instead of a holdout. This means he was in the building during the week and playing games, but he’d sit on the side at practice in protest of his situation.
In Pittsburgh, star running back Le’Veon Bell is sitting out half the season to preserve his health for free agency at the end of the season. He’s been unhappy with his contract for at least three seasons. Bell was drafted by the Steelers in 2013 and has played six seasons for the team in three of which he made less than $1 million despite making the all-pro team three times.
The modern NFL rewards teams for not allowing the player’s goal which is to land a lucrative second or third contract but giving out as few of those as possible has become the quickest way for a team to build a contender.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the International break features Nations Cup matches including Croatia v England tonight.
- Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, York and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham
- NFL, Week Six of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the start of the 2018-19 European Rugby Champions Cup
- Cricket, the Sri Lanka England ODI series continues with the Second ODI in rainy season Dambulla on Saturday
- Golf, the British Masters at Walton Heath and TPC Kuala Lumpur.
- Tennis, ATP Shanghai
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 4 Ulster v Leicester 5.30pm Saturday
The 2018-19 ERCC pool matches start this weekend and this match sees the two outsiders in the Pool 4 meet at Ravenhill, Belfast
I have first hand knowledge of Leicester, I watch them frequently. I also have, a few years removed, experience of Ulster’s mighty home advantage at Ravenhill. I had been working in Belfast and due to bad weather my Friday afternoon flight back had been cancelled, and I faced an extra night in the Europa hotel. My colleague and I decided to take in Ulster v Llanelli (now the Scarlets) that evening in what was then the Heineken Cup. We went to the bar and in our nice English accents asked for a couple of pints. Time froze as eyebrows raised and the atmosphere quietened. We drank up quickly and proceeded to watch the match (mouths shut) agog at the ferocity of the crowd and the very basic conditions. Since then the ground has been redeveloped but the home advantage is real. Last year in a group containing Wasps and Harlequins, Ulster didn’t come close to qualifying for the knock out stages they won their three home matches including versus the pool winners La Rochelle.
Ulster are currently third in their Pro 14 group and whilst they haven’t been in the vanguard of the re-invention of the Irish provincial game with the agreement between the National Union and the sides helping increase performance and Academies churning out young talent they are still a solid side led by Irish captain Rory Best and with last year’s Six Nations Player of the Year Jacob Stockdale (11 tries in 11 tests at the age of 22, six in last year’s six nations) the finisher on the wing.
Leicester have been rebuilding for ages, and after losing 40-6 at Exeter to start the season sacked coach Matt O’Connor. That rebuilding is affected by the tight salary cap. This is a side that can field when at full strength Ben Youngs, George Ford, Jonny May, Manu Tuilagi and Dan Cole but squad depth is an issue.
Leicester won 1 of 6 games in last season’s ERCC and have won 3 of 6 in the Gallagher Premiership this season. They key issue that interim coach Geordan Murphy has to fix is the defense. In their first four games of the season they conceded 158 points! (40 at Exeter, 33 against Newcastle, 41 at Wasps and 44 at home to Worcester). Things have improved slightly, holding bottom club Sale to 15 and then Northampton to 15 on a wet Saturday last weekend at Wembley.
The essential issues are that George Ford can be attacked in the 10 channel and the back row lacks solidity. Not a great combination heading to Ulster and Stockdale in particular.
Ulster should be comfortable favourites here, more comfortable than an outright price of 4/5 and -3 on the handicap implies
I like them to win by a couple of scores in the Winning margin market in what weather permitting should be a high scoring match but as yet markets and prices are yet to fully form, should be around a 7/2 shot. So for the first time in about 300 columns I am going to put an odds on outright winner bet up (feel I should say sorry!)
20 points Ulster to win at 4/5 William Hill 1.78 Betfair 1.74 Matchbook
A butterly flaps its wings
The NFL has been in an accelerating process of change since the 1990s when studies showing a connection between head blows and brain damage emerged and the existence of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, moved into the public consciousness.
The NFL instituted rules to salvage both its players and its business. The game is changing to survive, and it’s happening in real time. This season those rules were altered again, and the result has been big changes to the way games are refereed in the first few weeks of the new season. At issue is change to an 80-year-old rules infraction.
Widespread confusion was foreseen when in the off-season the NFL created a rule to penalise any player lowering his helmet to initiate contact and indeed it was the source of much angst in the pre-season. However it is a different rule that has thrown the NFL into chaos.
This offseason, the league’s rules committee quietly decreed that officials would more aggressively enforce a “body weight” rider to the roughing-the-passer rule with a single word change. The original rider, added in 1995, states: “When tackling a passer during or just after throwing a pass, a defensive player is prohibited from unnecessarily and violently throwing him down and landing on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight.”
For 2018, the last part reads, “a defensive player is prohibited from unnecessarily and violently throwing him down or landing on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight.”
Now what players, commentators and fans routinely deem as legal tackles are being flagged. The Packers’ Clay Matthews was the highest profile “victim” of the change, flagged for a hit on the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Matthews hit Cousins just after the QB released the ball, and while he did hit him in the chest and take him to the ground, Matthews also kept his own head out of the play. Green Bay was penalised, and what would have been a game-clinching interception on the play was negated. The teams finished tied at 29. In Week 3, Dolphins defensive end William Hayes tore his right ACL trying to avoid landing on top of Raiders quarterback Derek Carr during a sack.
Through the first four weeks of the regular season there have been 38 roughing the passer calls in 63 games. In 2017 there 21 in the same number of games. Just changing one word in an old rule has changed the outcome of games.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Even if you just joined in January 2018 and bet £10 a point you would already be winning £6,521 with a 4.8% ROI. Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,426 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,426.30 a 1086% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City.
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Fontwell Park, The Prix De L'Arce de Triomphe on Sunday.
- NFL, Week Five of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the final round of the Rugby Championship, South Africa v New Zealand and Argentina v Australia
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka
- Golf, the Alfred Dunhill Links at St Andrews and on the USPGA the Safeway Open at Silverado.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in China and Japan
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
Free tip
2018-19 European Champions Cup Betting Preview
This year’s competition begins next weekend with he final at St James’ Park Newcastle next May
As ever the format sees 20 teams play in five groups with the group winners and three best runners up meet in seeded knock out stages. There is an advantage in being a top four seed, for home advantage in the Quarter finals and whilst this year’s tournament undoubtedly has a lot of depth a look at the groups to see potential paths through to a high seeding is important.
Leinster took the title in magnificent style in Bilbao in May beating Racing92 and are drawn against a trio of former champions in Wasps, Toulouse and Bath Rugby
Castres Olympique, who were crowned Top14 champions, will be in Pool 2 along with Exeter Chiefs, Munster Rugby and Gloucester Rugby. This looks a particularly tough group
The Premiership winners, Saracens, have been drawn in Pool 3 with Glasgow Warriors, Lyon and Cardiff Blues. As groups go, this should be a relatively comfortable passage for the English side.
In Pool 4 one of the stand out sides from last year’s competition the Scarlets meet Racing 92, Leicester Tigers and Ulster Rugby
In the final pool come Montpellier, Newcastle Falcons, Edinburgh Rugby and Toulon.
The development of and increased strength in the Irish provinces came to fruition with Leinster’s triumph with emerging Academy talent reaching maturity and the agreement with the national side to limit the amount of play of the international players undoubtedly being a help late in the season.
Saracens apart, English sides have struggled to make an impact in the competition in recent seasons and that is for structural reasons with English players undertaking punishing schedules and the combined effect of a hard salary cap and rising player salaries meaning a lack of depth in squads has been a factor. A lot of Southern Hemisphere talent, attracted by the riches on offer in Europe, goes to France and is one of the reasons why the majority of the Top 14 sides are competitive year in and year out
Ante Post odds for the competition at the time of writing are
Leinster 2/1
Saracens 3/1
Montpellier 8/1
Exeter 9/1
Munster 14/1
Racing92 16/1
20/1 Bar.
My hunt is for value outside the front two, who are reasonable enough favourites but not a lot of value for a six month bet.
This is where an analysis of the groups comes in. I wanted before the draw to look to back Exeter, a really well coached side perennially challenging Saracens domestically with players that aren’t over-worked as most don’t play Internationally and who are very tough to play against. However the combination of a skinny price and their tough group (Castres and Munster have demonstrable home advantages, such that even if Exeter get through its unlikely to be with a top seed points haul) put paid to that
My next candidate was Montpellier under former Scotland coach Vern Cotter and despite middling top 14 form their Southern Hemisphere talent should have them as contenders notably Cruden and Nadolo. They also have a very winnable looking group. What put me off again was the dingle figure price, these factors are already in the price
I backed Munster last year and they made the semi-finals at a double-digit price but its that group again. Castres and Exeter: they are no certainties to get through.
Which led me to Racing 92. The Paris side are a real thrill to watch in Europe and marmalised sides on their way to the final last year and should get through a group where two of the sides, Leicester and Ulster, are not the forces they once were. Either Racing or Scarlets should top the group with the other a good shot at one of the runners up spots given lack of depth in the group. Of course the presence of Scarlets accounts for Racing being 16-1 ante post not the 8-1+ Montpellier, behind them in their domestic league, are.
This season they have supplemented their strong squad with the likes of Finn Russell and Simon Zebo and its not a team that is going to die wondering. Bonus points should be on the agenda in high scoring games, key if they are to have the fall back of that runners up spot to get through but hopefully they win the group. They are 7/4 favourites to do so ahead of Scarlets at 2/1.
10 points each way Racing 92 to win the 2018-19 European Champions Cup at 16-1 Skybet, Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral
Howzat?
The end of the 2018 County Championship season has come and gone and soon enough England will be back in action on their Sri Lanka tour. The 2018 domestic season was a remarkable one, and not always for the right reasons mainly on the batting front where all sides have struggled for runs. Take for example Kent, who ran Warwickshire close to the Division two title despite only gaining 16 batting bonus points in 14 matches. Six of the ten sides in the division won less than 16 batting points.
In the final round of matches last week only one match went to the final day, that after Champions Surrey had been knocked over for 67 in their first innings. Overall the season had the lowest runs-per-wicket average of any season since 1974. Since two divisions were instigated in 2000, only twice has the runs-per-wicket average fallen below 30 — this year and 2012. What is striking is that it was a very good hot summer, conditions in which you would normally expect batsmen to make hay - this gave me a wrong steer in the India/England test series where with the exception of one game the red Duke ball moved a lot all series and the Indian batsmen never coped.
Incredibly in 2018 only two batsmen passed 1,000 runs in the season, a milestone that in the days of more first-class cricket could occasionally be achieved by the end of May. Only two batsmen Ian Bell and the heir apparent to Alistair Cook’s test opening spot Rory Burns did so. Back in 2008 40 batsmen reached 1,000 runs in the season (in two matches more).
So what gives?
Firstly there are constant complaints that pitch quality is poor around the country. Better pitches are saved for the big crowd, high revenue and desired high entertainment T20 matches in the height of summer. Championship pitches have invariably been result pitches.
Secondly The shape and structure of the season has an impact, with most four day matches played early and late in the summer in seam bowling friendly conditions.
Thirdly batting technique has been possibly irrevocably altered by the amount of one day cricket players play. Run rates rise but “stickability” has fallen with comparatively few batsmen willing or able to grind it out in tough conditions. Often there has been a “play-some-shots-because-one-will-have-my-number-on-it” attitude.
Probably as soon as the Sri Lanka tour on what will be big turning pitches we will see how little the County Championship prepares our batsmen for the longer form of the game, something that has been evident for several years especially in the top three of the batting order.
Then we come to the bigger question, how far does the county gamet exist to feed the national team and how far to be an entertaining competition in its own right? For the past two decades the argument for the former has held sway but as smaller counties feel increasingly marginalised by their exclusion from the Hundred, they are under pressure to become more financially self-sufficient, which means results, and the need to attract bigger crowds.
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Long term profit over more than four years. So far in 2018 Brodders’ column is winning £4,071 to £10 a point with a 3.13% ROI
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