Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham v Manchester United.
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby. All weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield.
- NFL, Divisional Round Weekend in the NFL Play-Offs
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool matches
- Cricket, the 2018-19 Big Bash continues.
- Golf, on the USPGA the Song Open in Hawaii
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Sydney and Auckland ahead of the Australian Open
Australian Open Tennis
The Australian Open starts this weekend. Full package by Nigel Seeley available now at £50 here
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet 10 points) in last year’s event package you would have won £1,242 with a 58% ROI
NFL Play-Offs by Neil Channing
The NFL Play-Offs (Jan 5th-20th) Package available now at £50 here
The Six Nations (1st Feb – 16th March)
I am pleased to be covering the Six Nations with a full package this year.
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Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup 3.15pm Saturday Pool 4 Ulster v Racing92
The key game in Pool 4 takes place in Belfast on Saturday. Our ante-post selection for the competition Racing lead the pool with four wins out of four games and are the notional number one seed for the knock out stages with two rounds of pool matches to go. Earlier in the pool Racing beat Ulster 44-12 in Paris but that was in very different conditions than we will get at Ravenhill in early January, as the stadiumat La Defense is an artificial pitch, indoors, condusive to flair and speed.
Ulster are second in the pool five points behind Racing with three wins and a draw from their four games and with a considerable home advantage with a passionate home crowd contributing. With only three runners up places available for the knock out stages from five pools it is important that Ulster at least get something out of this game. In this respect the opportunity for one attacking bonus point for scoring four or more tries in a match and one defensive bonus point for losing a match by seven points or fewer could be key and the same applies to Racing. Lose by less than a score and it could well be job done to secure the pool win with the Scarlets at home in their last match.
Outright prices here are Racing 4/6 Ulster 6/4+ and Racing -3 points on the spread. I think, notwithstanding their results so far that pricing up Racing as away favourites in Belfast is a tough optimistic. It should be very close but Ulster could well scrap their way to a narrow win and I like then at 8/5 with William Hill
10 points Ulster to win 8/5 William Hill 6/4 Ladbrokes, Betfred
A private revolution
A private revolution is taking place in the NFL around analytics, an area under-utilised in the sport compared to baseball in particular amongst the major American sports. The presence of younger General managers and coaches within teams is one of the reasons why but the spread of the NFL’s player-tracking data, which is being shared league-wide for the first time this season is the main reason. Having access to that data allows teams to build models to analyse plays and players differently.
From a situation where only a minority of the smartest teams had embraced analytics there is now an arms race across the league as average teams are trying to get better in this area. The aim is for teams to use the analytics to gain a competitive advantage in a league that is structured (via the draft and free agency) to prevent you from having that advantage.
Next Gen Stats,the NFL’s advanced player-tracking data service, began five years ago. Next Gen Stats collects information from chips placed in players’ shoulder pads that reveal their location at all times; the chip can track how fast a player is moving, whether he is sprinting or jogging, the average separation between an offensive player and his defender, and many other metrics. Some of this data is public but the vast majority is available only to teams, who are creating other proprietary stats from the raw numbers. NFL franchises are absorbing millions of data points for the first time and currently there appear to be inefficiencies in the interpretation of that data.
All teams have this information so the key is what they do with it, the way they use it. It’s no different than when we they go to the scouting combine and pro days and get all the same information. It’s about finding an advantage and angles that other teams miss.
As the NFL moves into the information age across the league rather than in a minority of franchises, there will be more data, larger sample sizes, more decisions made based on that data, and more evidence of what works.
Brodders Football Analysis
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, FA Cup 3rd Round weekend.
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton. All weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield.
- NFL, Wild Card Weekend as the NFL Play-Offs begin
- Cricket, the 2018-19 Big Bash continues.
Australian Open Tennis
The Australian Open (Jan 14th-27th) full package by Nigel Seeley available now at £50 here
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet 10 points) in last year’s event package you would have won £1,242 with a 58% ROI
NFL Play-Offs by Neil Channing
The NFL Play-Offs (Jan 5th-20th) Package available now at £50 with the Wild Card weekend and Superbowl market write ups live here
The Six Nations (1st Feb – 16th March)
I am pleased to be covering the Six Nations with a full package this year.
To get all the Six Nations analysis, write ups and details of our bets it's £50 sign up here
Free tip
FA Cup Third Round Accrington Stanley v Ipswich Town Saturday 3pm
In general these days the competition sees fewer upsets than previously. Pitches are better, squad depth in the top division is strong and the impact of inevitable rotation after the busy Christmas Period is limited. Last season did see some opportunities in sides from Leagues one and two playing Championship sides in the third round, with four wins and three draws amongst those ties.
This match sees a similar opportunity. Ipswich are bottom of the Championship having won two league games all season scoring 21 goals in 26 matches with no discernible improvement in form since the appointment of Paul Lambert in October. The squad desperately needs in investment in the transfer window upcoming. However that’s not an easy call for decade long owner Marcus Evans. Latest financial figures show that the club is £95m in debt to him, made a pre-tax loss of £5m last year and is experiencing higher wage bills and lower gate receipts. It looks likely that this will come to a head in relegation and then cutting the cloth accordingly with a restructuring of the club on the field.
A visit to Accrington for a struggling side isn’t that appetising a prospect at the compact Wham Stadium (yes, really) which holds 5,500. Accrington under John Coleman were promoted out of League two last season despite the joint lowest budget in the division and have established themselves in League One, just outside the top ten which of course is quite the over-achievement and testament to Coleman’s team building and eye for talent which typically needs replacing when several players are poached every summer.
With these two sides likely to be in the same division next season, and Ipswich really struggling this, this should be prime territory for an upset. You have to question Ipswich’s appetite for this game given their upcoming priorities
10 points Accrington Stanley to beat Ipswich Town 13/8 Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred
Deal or No Deal
The prospect of a “No Deal” Brexit on 29th March 2019 has implications for a number of sports besides football, which I have written about in this column. One of these is Northern Hemisphere club rugby.
The growing prospect of no deal has put the organisers of the Premiership, Pro14 and the European Champions Cup in a state of uncertainty with few definitive preparations for that eventuality.
Exiting without a deal would have an immediate impact on clubs. It would leave a divide among Ireland’s four provinces with Leinster, Munster and Connacht governed by European law and Ulster by British statute. That could impact on recruitment with players from South Africa, Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, who are currently classified as European because their countries have trade agreements with the EU, maintaining their status in the Republic of Ireland but not in Northern Ireland where they would fall under the foreign player rule. Pro 14 clubs for example are currently allowed only two non-Europeans in matchday squads for example.
A European player is defined as one who is a citizen of an EU member country. It would mean after Brexit that Welsh, Scottish, English and Northern Irish players who played in one of the other countries would technically be classified as a foreigner.
Beyond this season what happens is a matter for discussion, such as whether players who have qualified as “Europeans” will maintain that status or whether they will need a work permit.
A question for unions post-Brexit is whether to tighten up the rules on registration to increase the number of homegrown players in squads. It would affect England more than Wales and Scotland.
A club such as Gloucester that has recently signed a number of South African players could find they have to exclude all except two of them every weekend. Bristol, Newcastle and Northampton would be in the same position but Premiership Rugby would doubtless make representations to the RFU. Clubs feel they have the balance right between homegrown players and imports but with the salary cap being frozen for the next two seasons, wage increases will have to be balanced by either a reduction in squad sizes or the promotion of more academy products.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures in the middle of the Christmas Period include Liverpool v Arsenal.
- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. All weather racing at Southwell.
- NFL, Week Seventeen of the 2018 Season
- Cricket, The fourth Test between Australia and India starts in Sydney on Wednesday and the 2018-19 Big Bash continues.
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Hobart Hurricanes v Perth Scorchers, Big Bash Sunday 30th December 8.15am GMT
In the early stages of the 2018-19 Big Bash and on Sunday two sides with contrasting fortunes so far in the competition meet in Tasmania
Last season’s finalists Hobart beat Brisbane defending 159 in their first match and then chased 155 to beat the Stars at home in the second game to lie top of the table after their first two games. They were on the wrong end of Jos Buttler’s 89 of 54 balls on Friday opening the innings that led Sydney Thunder to 193 but nevertheless chased it down for the lossof only three wickets.
Perth meanwhile, habitually one of the best sides in the tournament over many years lost their first two games of the season, their batting failed twice scoring just 147 and 103 giving an above average bowling attack little chance of defending low totals. Then, in a reversal of fortunes on Boxing Day they knocked over the Strikers for 88 to get off the mark for the season.
For Hobart their overseas import Jofra Archer of Sussex and eventually when he qualifies, England, is one of the most promising fast bowlers in world cricket. Last season he had a big impact on the competition, typically bowling at both ends of the innings (and bowling at the death is a big advantage in the top bowler sub markets, where batsmen are taking risks) and he was one of the best bowlers. His ferocious mix of yorkers and bouncers - one ball clocked at 94mph – took him to 15 wickets in 10 matches and then an $800,000 IPL contract.
This season he has taken 4-0-22-2 and 4-0-25-3 before taking just the one wicket against the Thunder and with Tymal Mills now ruled out of the competition with a hamstring it is he and the veteran James Faulkner that lead the attack. Archer has now taken 20 Big Bash wickets in 14 matches and is by far their most threatening bowler.
In the Hobart top bowler market Archer is available at 12/5 with Bet365 ahead of Faulkner at 7/2 and 9/2 bar the front two which is fair enough as the bowling attack doesn’t have great depth
10 points Jofra Archer Top Hobart Hurricanes Bowler 12/5 Bet365, 9/4 RedZone Sports, 2/1 WilliamHill, Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power.
Raiders of the Lost Park.
A running joke in the NFL media late this season goes as follows:
“Who should be the NFL Coach of the Year?”
“Jon Gruden, because he turned two also rans into play-off teams”
Referring to the (especially controversial) trade of star pass rusher Khalil Mack to the Bears and the later trade of the wide receiver Amari Cooper to the Cowboys
Meanwhile, with a 3-11 record, the Raiders themselves shorn of this talent, are headed for a top five NFL draft pick of their own to accompany the two later first round picks acquired in these trades. A third player who was released, safety Obi Menifonwu, has done nothing but impress for his new team the Patriots and is already being factored into the team’s long-term plans.
Mack, Cooper and Melifonwu had an average age of 25. Meanwhile Gruden is talking about a contract extension for 32 year old Tight End Jared Cook, a good player but such a move would be indicative of a personnel strategy that runs contra to conventional NFL wisdom and as yet shows no sign of working for the Raiders. As of now the Raiders have the NFL’s oldest roster.
For coach Jon Gruden, returning to coaching after a spell in the commentary booth and on a ten year contract no less in the last off-season this is becoming a long and complicated rebuild. Compared to many NFL franchises the Raiders lack money (the primary reason for the Mack trade), and move to Vegas in 2020 with as yet nowhere to play next season. The General Manager has been fired and the roster, as you would expect from a three win team, looks short in a number of areas.
If we assume that financial limitations make them only marginal players in the coming off-season then 2019 is shaping up as a very important draft with the need to hit on their extra picks paramount. Whilst of course selling season tickets and boxes in the early years of playing in Vegas is not going to be a problem, at some stage Gruden is going to need to show that there is a turn-round in place on the field
In that regard the Raiders start from a reasonable position in a couple of areas, they probably don’t need a quarterback and the offensive line has a lot of talent. The strength of the 2019 NFL draft is on defense and particularly the front seven. Gruden is a proponent of “winning up front” and so it could be that the extra picks correspond to where there are opportunities to use them from a draft perspective and where the roster happens to be weak.
How long this will take (in a division where the Chiefs have a tremendous young quarterback and the Chargers are a double digit win team with lots of young talent) is open to question but for it to be quick the Raiders are going to have to pick successfully, a lot, in the 2019 NFL draft
Brodders Football Analysis
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
The Road to Riches: Christmas Week
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures ahead of the Christmas Period include Everton v Tottenham on Sunday.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle. All weather racing at Lingfield.
- NFL, Week Sixteen of the 2018 Season
- Cricket, the third test between Australia and India on Boxing Day in Melbourne and the 2018-19 Big Bash continues.
PDC World Darts Championship (On Now)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50
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Free tip
The King George VI Chase, Kempton Boxing Day by Neil Channing
The King George is not a race that we should have an each-way bet on right now but it's still one I do like from a betting point of view, as I feel like we can eliminate a few of the runners from calculation. Currently the going is on the good side of good to soft and with not much rain anticipated over the weekend I could see it going off good to soft which should be Ok for most of the horses but there are a couple who will really like it much softer who I won't be backing plus there are a couple who may be a doubt over this three mile trip, even on this flat track.
Toss Up
Home advantage is arguably bigger than it has ever been in Test cricket, but the advantage from winning the toss and batting first is emerging as just as important after results in 2018
In Test cricket today there is rarely a way back for a side batting second and falling behind. Not counting beating Zimbabwe or Bangladesh the last time a side batting second won a Test despite a first innings deficit was in 2015 when New Zealand beat Sri Lanka in Hamilton. The last time an away side managed this feat was back in 2008, when South Africa won in Perth.
There has been a consistent fall in the win-loss ratio of sides fielding first in Test cricket. Having been roughly equal for many years from 2014 onwards it has been 0.5, 0.48, 0.48, 0.54, and 0.31.
This begs the question if toss advantage is more significant than home advantage in an era where players are accustomed to higher strike rates, a cross over from the volume of one day cricket played, and not as familiar occupying the crease when trying to respond to first innings scores, often on deteriorating pitches.
India have lost nine out of their last eleven away tosses including at Perth this week and the result was another loss. Australia had lost 11 of their last 15 tosses. Such is their strength at home that India usually nullify any toss advantage and tend to win every time they have the advantage away such as at Adelaide recently which is why they are the number one ranked test side. Australia, not a strong a side, struggle to match those results when they lose the toss.
England recently won in Sri Lanka 3-0, and won all three tosses. Certainly on those pitches even against a weak Sri Lanka side its difficult to argue that the result would have been the same if Sri Lanka had batted first on occasion.
These days in test cricket between essentially evenly matched sides in the top 8, many results are decided by who wins the toss and bats first and therefore there is a randomness, here from the toss of a coin, to results and betting outcomes at least as important as other factors such as conditions, team selection, umpiring decisions and injuries,
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester United.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford. All weather racing at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- NFL, Week Fifteen of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union: the fourth round of European Rugby Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf, the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.
- Cricket, the 2018-19 Big Bash starts in Australia next week
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Free tip
NFL Week 15 Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Saturday 8.20pm
With three weeks of the regular season to go both of these teams are on the fringes of the race for the final play-off berth in the AFC. The Browns beat the Panthers last weekend to get to a 5-7-1, and most likely need to win out to stand a chance of reaching the post-season.
The Broncos have a 6-7 record having surprise loss in San Francisco meaning it,s now or never for them too starting this weekend.
The Broncos strengths are on defense (Chubb for example has 12 sacks and is on course to beat the rookie record) and in areas of their running game. This is just as well as since their coaching changes in week 9 the Browns lead the NFL in yards per play and have converted 14 of 14 red zone opportunities for touchdowns, admittedly against a string of poor run defences, which the Broncos aren’t.
It has to be said that the Bronocos coaching is at times risible. On November 17th head coach Vance Joseph said the Broncos needed to “start their games faster”. At that time they were the number three offense in the NFL in first quarter scoring. Since that comment they have played four first quarters and scored three points.
What is odd is that in undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay they have one of the most dynamic young players in the NFL on an offense that isn’t that exciting. Lindsay needed just 63 yards rushing to reach 1,000 yards for the season last week and seemed all but certain he’d get that against the lowly 49ers. However his unlikely journey from undrafted free agent to a legitimate NFL offensive rookie of the year candidate hit a road-block in the 20-14 Denver defeat, with Lindsay recording 14 carries for just 30 yards.
Heading into that game he led the NFL with 6.1 yards per carry in addition to ranking fifth in rushing yards (937) and rushing touchdowns (five). Lindsay added to his scoring total with a 3-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter in San Francisco but after posting single gains of 65, 14 and 11 yards in the victory the week before at Cincinnati, the 49ers limited Lindsay’s longest rush to only 5 yards. His now 9 touchdowns are though tied for sixth in the league.
Lindsay has posted over 7 yards per carry on double-digit carries in three straight games, the longest such streak for a running back since 2007. He is averaging 111 yards from scrimmage on 17 touches per game over his past six games. The only real blemish is that the Broncos have yet to involve him in the passing game given his speed in the open field and the fact that he caught 117 passes over his collegiate career.
The Browns have conceded over 410 yards per game this season, second worst in the NFL, rank 24th of 32 overall and 28th against the run. This has to be the time for the Broncos game plan to feature their most dynamic player and try to get out to a lead. Or it would be if you assumed rational coaching!
Lindsay can score from a long way out, which gives any touchdown bets another string to their bows, we aren’t just relying on red zone and goal line plays
8 points Phillip Lindsay First Touchdown scorer 4/1 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 4.8 Betfair 7/2 Skybet
Golden Bears?
Fortunes can change in the NFL quickly, with the draft and free agency all allowing struggling teams to re-tool quickly, and with the right coaching go from also rans one season to challengers the next. In the NFC North this season we are seeing a textbook example of this with the Chicago Bears who are following their 5-11 season record in 2017 with currently an 9-4 record and the number three seed in the NFC play-offs if they started tomorrow. This resurgence was capped last weekend with a suffocating 15-6 victory over the Rams(who were previously averaging 35 points a game) featuring defense and real offensive innovation such as a touchdown with no running backs, receivers and Tight End’s on the field, a defensive tackle running play action and an offensive tackle receiving the scoring pass.
While Chicago now has an innovative young coach in Matt Nagy and has also drafted well (taking their opportunity to draft a young quarterback high while they could) and used free agency too, it is the veteran trade market that has really helped accelerate their recovery and particularly the late pre-season acquisition of the superstar defensive end Khalil Mack from the Raiders.
The deal came at a heavy cost, two first round picks, but with many of the young pieces for the Bears roster already drafted it could certainly be argued that the addition of someone like Mack could help send the franchise into contention now, without too much cost in the next couple of years where the Bears wouldn’t want to draft in too many of the impact positions anyway.
Mack has been a real difference on a defense that was already a strength of the team. Every member of Chicago’s secondary is having the best season of his career. As offenses double team Mack in an effort to keep him away from the quarterback, the remaining members of the Bears’ front four have seen one-on-one opportunities they otherwise wouldn’t have.
In terms of roster construction the question that we will only know the answer to in January is whether this will ultimately matter. The logical comparison for these Bears is the 2017 Jaguars. Both teams featured great defense and issues at quarterback. This Bears offense is though considerably better than the Blake Bortles led Jags was in 2017, and the Jags gave the Patriots a good run in the AFC Conference game. Trubisky at quarterback has started 22 NFL games and 10 under Nagy and its an issue of inexperience rather than inability that at times makes the offense inconsistent. He does though bring an ability to run the ball too.
Quarterbacks aside, what sets this year’s Bears and the 2017 Jaguars apart is the rest of the offense. Armed with a varied collection of pass-catchers, head coach Matt Nagy can scheme to create mis-matches
As mentioned recently the sport has undergone a shift. Eleven quarterbacks are on pace to throw at least 35 touchdown passes this year. The NFL record for total points in a single season is certain to be shattered. Against an offensive juggernaut like the Saints or Rams Chicago’s defensive prowess could all be for naught. As the league’s points explosion takes hold, a divisional-round playoff game might be a race to 30, whether Mack is on the field or not. Like the Bears, both L.A. and New Orleans have weaknesses. If the Bears do make the playoffs and get their shot at taking on the NFC’s best, it will set up as a true test of whether a great defense can be relevant in the modern NFL. For now though the Mack trade has given them that shot.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
