Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th December
Happy Christmas everyone. The column will be back for the first weekend of January.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Arsenal
- -NFL, Week Sixteen.
- Rugby Union, Gallagher Premiership matches
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Bath v Harlequins 3.05pm Saturday
After 2 rounds of the European Rugby Champions Cup the Premiership returns over the Christmas Period. These two sides sit 2nd and 3rd in the table after 8 rounds, both with 5 wins.
The first two rounds of the ERCC, within which both these sies are in Pool 2 have seen a surprising 75% overall win rate from English sides with vaunted French top 14 sides such as La Rochelle, Racing and Stade Francais winless to date. It’s been suggested that the folding of three English teams in the last 18 months (Wasps, Worcester and London Irish) and the incorporation of many from those squads into the remaining 10 top English teams has given the home sides strength in depth particularly with rotation the order of the day with the European games coming thick and fast. We’ll see how the remaining Pool rounds play out to see if this is borne out.
Bath are currently unbeaten in Europe, first beating Ulster 37-14 at home and following that up with a 39-32 win in Cardiff. For them, the competition take s a tougher turn in January with games against Racing 92 and a formidable looking Toulouse side.
Having languished in the domestic doldrums for a number of seasons investment in the playing squad under new owners has seen the club’s fortunes taking a big step forward with Finn Russell as the marquee player and the likes of Lawrence, Barbeary for England and Redpath for Scotland in the hunt for Six Nations selection.
Harlequins have had a tougher run of European fixtures to start off that campaign. They had a brilliant 31-28 win at Racing92 to begin the tournament before trying to match the Toulouse flair at home last weekend and getting well beaten 47-19. The first game saw Marcus Smith impressive in an open game, the second with Quins more on the back foot saw the defensive frailties exposed.
With both teams coming off a fortnight of tough games played at full strength squad rotation could be the order of the day here. The weather forecast is for dry weather which will suit Quins but they will need to add some solid nuts and bolts to their typical style, the type of which were absent against Toulouse in terms of defensive structure and kicking game. I think it will be a very close game, and I will take the visitors with the points.
11 points Harlequins +7 at 10/11 William Hill and +6 10/11 generally available
An offensive problem.
With three weeks to go of the NFL regular season half of the teams in the league are currently fielding back-up Quarterbacks, such is the injury attrition rate at the position this season.
This is a concern for teams off the field as well as on. Whether it is in ticket sales or television ratings, the numbers show by and large that fans do not want to watch backup quarterbacks.
I count 12 teams that have started two Quarterbacks this season, another 4 that have started three. The Browns and Vikings have needed four. Eighteen of Thirty-Two teams have had to turn to their backup.
On the field Offensive numbers are down this season compared to recently. Just taking two obvious measures. So far this season, and for the whole of 2022, 25 of the 32 NFL teams are averaging less than 25 points a game, compared to 17 in 2020 and 19 in 2021.
In terms of Total offensive yards per game, 22 teams so far to date average less than 350 yards per game compared to 19 last year, 17 in 2021 and only 12 in 2020.
There are various factors at play. Within a $200m+ salary cap, its tough to roster two starting quality Quarterbacks, especially for teams who have a franchise Quarterback on a non-rookie salary, the best of which are now in the region of $50m a year.
Secondly the college game has cylically produced a spate of talented defensive pass rushers in recent seasons (T.J Watt, Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa to name a few) and many teams prioritise having two strong edge rushers to pressure Quarterbacks and these players are fast and skilful.
Edge rushers have become smaller and slender and are fantastically athletic. In the NFL size is mattering less. This gives offensive lines a problem because broadly these players are still huge, relatively cumbersome and struggling to match the athleticism being shown at Edge.
There are structural reasons why offensive lines are struggling to perform well too. The 2011 (updated in 2021) collective bargaining agreement between the players union and the league put restrictions on padded practices, a shorter off-season calendar plus one less pre-season game, for health reasons. From February to Mid/Late April players can’t work with coaches and gone are the gruelling two-a-day practices that have long been a staple of training camps. In their place, teams are able to conduct one full-contact padded practice per day accompanied by a walkthrough period. The league has also placed limits on the number of full-contact padded practices during the regular season. Teams are permitted a total of 14 for the year with 11 of those practices conducted during the first 11 weeks of the season (a maximum of one per week).
This is what the players asked for, and it’s affected the overall quality of play. This was most notably seen in the early weeks of the season, with defenses dominating but has continued through the season. Offensive lines require synchronisation and togetherness and developing more cohesion at game speed would likely reduce injuries to Quarterbacks.
As well as these changes the college game, from which NFL players are drafted, is in an era of dominance for wide open spread offenses, where linemen are not required to make many of the blocks expected of them in the pro game. For example in many college teams, Quarterbacks are not required to line up under center. Now these players and their linemen enter the NFL relatively inexperienced and with teams unable to invest the time in training them to be ready for the NFL, All the reductions in practice time and contact have wreaked havoc on team’s ability to develop Offensive line depth, and that's made injuries a bigger issue.
There are two final points. The value for money for rookie contracts under the CBA, particularly the ability to have a fifth year option on first round draft picks has reduced the number of “average” veterans being offered second contracts. It is more financially efficient to draft a young replacement from a salary cap perspective. Secondly the league currently lacks a rookie development league, as NFL Europe once was, to give young/fringe players game time opportunities to develop. Perhaps that is one option the league will consider if these current trends of excess injuries and lower points/yards continue.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester United
- -NFL, Week Fifteen.
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool matches
- Cricket, West Indies v England T20 Match in Grenada on Saturday
- Golf, on the DP World Tour the Mauritius Open this weekend.
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Pool D
Stormers v La Rochelle 1.30pm Saturday
Pool D is absolutely stacked containing Leinster, La Rochelle, the Stormers, Stade Francais, Leicester and Sale.
A reminder that the 24 teams are in four pools of 6 and 64 pool games eliminate just eight teams from the competition prior to the knockout stages beginning with a last 16. Each team plays four games in the pool, and do not play teams from their own country at this stage.
One of the issues for the tournament is the logistics around including the two South African teams who form part of the URC. This raised its head last weekend when the schedule gave the Stormers from Cape Town had to play in Leicester on Sunday, just six days before Round 2 and their match with two time defending Champions La Rochelle back at home.
Faced with this prospect the Stormers management appeared to prioritise their second match and faced Leicester with effectively a B team, minus their key players and current Springboks Jantjes, Libbock, Willemse, Malherbe, Roos and Fourie.
That they led Leicester 17-10 at half time with 58% possession highlighted an impressively competitive performance in a match they ultimately lost 35-26.
The Stormers have only won 3 of their 7 URC games this season, a disappointing start having won the tournament two years ago and been runners-up last year and reaching the Quarter-Finals of the European Champions Cup.
La Rochelle lost at home last weekend to Leinster in bad conditions, after 15 successive victories in the competition. That team now faces the challenge the Stormers had last weekend in reverse, a long trip to Cape town six days after a feisty very physical encounter at home albeit they have a relative advantage compared to going to play the Bulls in Pretoria at altitude rather than Cape Town’s sea level.
La Rochelle’s defeat to Leinster was consistent with their poor Top 14 form so far this season where they are currently 9th with only four wins from nine games. Against Leinster they were inaccurate and undisciplined, particularly poor in the line-out and lacked attacking incision.
The circumstances of the game are a big ask for La Rochelle and the Stormers are 4 point handicap favourites for the game.
11 points Stormers -4 @10/11 widely available
Giteau’s law.
Premiership rugby clubs have lost lose the ability to offer two players ‘marquee’ status. Premiership clubs were allowed two such players each, who could be paid from outside the salary cap, but now they can only have one due to the twin factors of financial pressures in the domestic game and a wish to continue competitive balance. Saracens are a club affected by the change of rules and have nominated Owen Farrell to remain in that category of player with associated financial benefits. The consequence is that the other marquee player Maro Itoje will be asked to play on a halved salary from the end of the season.
Presently, only England qualification rules for the national team prevent a large number of players seeking to play elsewhere and in particular France and Japan where the game has healthier finances, less restrictive salary caps. With France and Japan having the funding to afford a player such as Itoje, but the RFU rule requiring players to be based in the UK for national selection are a major issue for established England players.
Desperate to prevent a further exodus of England players to France and beyond, the RFU the national governing body is introducing hybrid contracts in which they part fund player contracts, but can they really commit £400,000 per year (the Itoje loss) to the retention of one player in these new hybrid contracts?
Ideally national teams should pick their best team irrespective of where they happen to play their rugby and the qualification rules are antiquated and possibly instead the market should be allowed to take its course but it’s a factor of different financial structures and funding in different national markets. The issue is about to be thrown into further relief with the news that Henry Arundell will stay at Racing 92 until 2026, having rejected a joint offer from Bath & the RFU meaning he is ineligible for the Six Nations.
The English Premiership clubs are struggling financially. They are in a constant fight for tightening sponsorship and broadcast rights amid competing sports and are dwarfed by football’s success. Anything that affects the sustainability of the English professional game risks its implosion. In turn, that compromises the sustainability of England’s international team. As 85% of the revenue of the RFU comes from Twickenham internationals, this would threaten the grassroots, women’s, schools and all other levels of rugby. The English premiership has already lost three clubs to administration and attendances are down across the board so far this season. Newcastle in particular are struggling on and off the field.
A relaxation of the qualification rule, along the lines of Giteau’s law in Australia, would not be unreasonable. In Australia a player can play abroad and still be selected for the national team after gaining a minimum of 30 Test caps and/or five seasons at Super Rugby level following legal challenge by the International player Matt Giteau a decade ago. The institution of a similar system in England, possibly at Australia’s previous level of 60 caps, under which Itoje would still qualify for England selection, might be the way to go.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Newcastle United.
- -NFL, Week Fourteen.
- Rugby Union, the start of the European Rugby Champions Cup Pools
- Cricket, ODI between West Indies and England in Barbados and the start of the Big Bash League in Australia.
- Golf, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Ante-Post
In this column a fortnight ago I described the shape of the 2023-24 ERCC which begins on Friday night with the first of the Pool round matches. This write-up deals with Outright market prices.
With each-way terms of one-third the odds, two places the top of the Outright market is as follows:
Leinster 5/2
La Rochelle 100/30
Toulouse 4/1
Saracens 9/1
Munster 12/1
Racing 92 18/1
Bordeaux 18/1
Bar 28/1
Understandably enough most of the market is taken out by recent winners of the competition, including La Rochelle in each of the last two years, Toulouse and Leinster, nine-time winners combined.
You’ll notice the top of the market is dominated by French top 14 teams and the two leading Irish provinces, the exception being Saracens the only English Premiership, Welsh or Scottish side to feature. This is because of the comparative financial strength in the French game and the squad depth at Leinster. The disparities in salary caps and finance across the ERCC countries make it highly unlikely that the winner will come from outside France and Ireland, not even the South African sides are featuring as contenders yet.
I’ve been searching for an alternative to the top three in the betting and I think there is a clear each-way option. Under ex-England coach Stuart Lancaster Racing 92 from Paris are top of the French league after nine rounds. They had a huge recruitment round this summer, notably the South African captain Siya Kolisi, to build on the team that finished as losing semi-finalists in this tournament last season.
The result is they probably have the best set of second choice players, hence squad depth, in Europe apart from Leinster and whilst their first XV might be behind Toulouse and La Rochelle they are definitely going to be challenging in both their major competitions this season.
So far this season they’ve beaten La Rochelle 32-10 in Kolisi’s first game a fortnight ago, albeit La Rochelle played 50 minutes with 14 men and are well ahead of Toulouse in 6th and La Rochelle in 9th.
Their pool contains Toulouse and their fixtures are against Bath, Harlequins, Ulster and Cardiff. At a minimum I would expect them to finish second in the pool.
At 18/1 they are more than four times the price of the top three in the market, and represent one of the better rugby ante-post bets I have seen in a while.
20 points each way (1/3 1,2) Racing 92 to win the European Rugby Champions Cup at 18/1 Betfred and SkyBet, 16/1 generally
A new cycle.
Whatever people think about England’s approach at the Rugby World Cup it delivered a third-place finish and 6 wins and just the sole loss to South Africa in the semi-final, by a point, in seven matches. It was a far healthier return than seemed likely in the dog days of the August warmups.
Aside from that one-point defeat against the Springboks, when they were overhauled in the closing minutes, England stubbornly found ways to win most notably when down to 14 men early in their first game against Argentina.
Their defence was mostly excellent with only nine tries conceded in those seven games. On the flip side they registered the most average kicks per game of any team, the most box kicks and the slowest attacking ruck speed. It was a perfectly valid strategy for the strengths and weaknesses of the current squad but at some stage between now and the 2027 competition England will be required to play more expansively to have a realistic chance of beating the best teams in major games.
England’s biggest winners in France were Ben Earl and Alex Mitchell. George Martin was immense, against the Springboks. If the quietly excellent Joe Marchant was not now playing for Stade Francais in the Top 14, he would be in the same category.
Looking ahead, the 2024 Six Nations looks highly competitive with Ireland and France the favourites, Wales resurgent and Scotland a danger on their day particularly with ball in hand. England have to travel to Edinburgh and Paris in the 2024 competition.
England’s squad for the tournament will look different in a couple of major respects. Firstly, as is typical at the end of a World Cup cycle there have been retirements, of which Courtney Lawes is the major loss but also the list includes Youngs, Marler and May.
Secondly there are injuries where already Tom Curry and Ben Earl are ruled out of the Six Nations, meaning a completely new back-row will be needed come February
Finally Owen Farrell’s recently announced absence for the Six Nations leaves the side seeking a new captain, as well as robbing the side of another very experienced player.
Henry Arundell has been given temporary clearance to play in next year’s Six Nations despite having joined Racing 92 following London Irish’s demise. If no-one in an England jersey is going to pass to him he might be better off staying in France though and it is to be hoped firstly that is selected and secondly if so the playing style begins to evolve to make the most of his talents with several years to develop and refine a more rounded approach, preferably under a stable coaching set-up, than was seen in the World Cup.
I sketched out a sample Six Nations XV as follows:
Steward
Arundell
Lawrence
Slade
Daly
Ford
Mitchell
Genge
George
Stuart
Itoje
Chessum
Martin
Underhill
Willis
On the face of it this doesn’t look like a side capable of competing with Ireland and France but the manner of play will be key to show early progress for the 2024-27 cycle.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham and Newcastle United v Manchester United.
- -NFL, Week Thirteen.
- Cricket, ODI between West Indies and England in Antigua on Sunday
- Golf the Grant Thornton Invitational on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership
Bristol v Gloucester Saturday 2pm
As both sides have only two wins this season and lie 8th and 9th in a ten-team table this is a match where both directors of rugby under pressure.
Bristol won their first two matches against Leicester and Northampton but have now lost five in a row, most recently last weekend running Saracens close away from home losing 39-31 scoring four tries.
In their other four losses they’ve had a two point and a one-point loss, to Harlequins and Bath respectively.
This follows on from a very inconsistent season last time with results far less than the sum of the talents of their individual players.
Inconsistency, far less than the sum of their parts with Vakatawa and Malins in the backs, Sheedy and Randall a very effective half-back partnership and able to call on the likes of Genge and Sinckler up front.
Gloucester also had two wins to start the season against Harlequins and Newcastle and the latest of their five successive losses was 14-31 at home to Leicester last weekend. Gloucester have now only won five of their last 22 Premiership matches going back a season and a half.
In the Leicester match their forwards lacked power and the game-plan was naïve. They are missing Mercer and Ackermann in the back row and Hastings at fly half, all important losses.
There are rumours that Louis Rees-Zammit, the Welsh winger who represents their main attacking threat, is shortly off to France.
Bristol are 7 or 8 point favourites on the handicap, and I would expect them to cover.
11 points Bristol -7 at 10/11 William Hill and Betfair Sportsbook
Hundreds and Thousands
Tied into a Sky deal until 2028 that seems to have precluded more radical changes to the Hundred, the competition is expected to expand to ten teams with ownership of the franchises opened up to private investors.
Buyers are already showing interest in the current eight teams on the basis that the competition remains a closed league without promotion and relegation.
Five options were presented to counties at the end of last season. The options ranged from status quo to a total overhaul of the tournament through a pyramid which would have involved a promotion and relegation structure involving all 18 counties. The proposal to transform the Hundred into an 18-team competition such as the Blast with promotion and relegation has been rejected.
Expanding to 10 teams would happen in the next five years. The likeliest locations are the south-west, in Bristol and Taunton, and the north-east, at Durham, which would provide a greater geographical spread.
That the competition would not be overhauled appears unlikely to upset Sky with whom the ECB has a lucrative broadcast deal until the end of 2028. The new model is expected to be in place for the 2025 season.
The game feels it needs private investment for a couple of reasons including the feeling that they are unlikely ever to sign a broadcast deal as lucrative as the current one with Sky with rights declining in value. The game therefore needs new revenue streams at a time of rising costs. The Hundred men’s competition exists in a tough franchise market globally, with US Major League Cricket and the Caribbean Premier League both of which feature teams backed by IPL owners also taking place during the English summer.
Private ownership is the only way the competition will be able to keep up with the player wages being paid elsewhere allowing teams to pay players more which, along with the obvious benefits of them spending summer at home for domestic players and will make the Hundred desirable for the world’s best players.
Premiership rugby stands as a template for the risks of having private investment involved, but much like rugby cricket is not coming from a position of funding strength in its future funding and ownership arrangements.
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Results = points bet 34780 profit +1506.90 ROI +4.33% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool.
- -NFL, Week Twelve.
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Golf the Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the Australian and South African Opens on the DP World Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership
Newcastle v Exeter Sunday 3pm
Newcastle Falcons continue to struggle this season, now winless in their first six league games after an away loss to Sale last weekend 40-22. Predominantly a young side, there are flashes of talent but in a ten-team league where after the demise of Wasps, Worcester and London Irish talent is concentrating in the remaining teams it is a tough outlook for Newcastle, this time with the threat of relegation into the second tier Championship looming. With only 18 rounds of games this season the schedule is already a third complete and the side has scored the least points in the league and conceded nearly 200 already.
Exeter needed a last kick of the match penalty to creep past Gloucester 25-24 last weekend for their fourth win of the season to go third in the table with the best defensive record of all ten sides to date. This was the sort of late win their vintage side of 2019 would produce.
As written a few weeks ago when they featured here the side is a more expansive one than the Title winning version pre-Covid. Henry Slade apart it’s a young side with plenty of talent, featuring several of the next generation of Welsh international players who impressed in the World Cup. Probably not a contender for the title this season but rebuilt and going in the right direction for 2024 through 2026.
Exeter are 2/5 outright favourites for the game, Newcastle 2/1+ and 7-point handicap underdogs.
11 points Exeter -7 points at 10/11 widely available
Spurred
The 10th season of the European Rugby Champions Cup begins on 8th December, for the second time featuring teams from South Africa following their inclusion in the United Rugby Championship. The final takes place at Tottenham’s stadium next May.
Holders La Rochelle win their second European title last season and alongside Leinster French sides are expected to dominate the competition this season too.
Outright odds are currently
Leinster 5/2
La Rochelle 100/30
Toulouse 4/1
Then a big gap to Saracens 10/1 Munster 12/1, Stormers, and Racing92 at 20/1 with Each way odds 1/3 two places available.
24 teams will compete in four pools of six, each side playing four pool matches against sides of other nationalities and the top four from each pool will go into a knockout phase of a round of sixteen after the Six Nations.
Teams are awarded four points for a win, two for a draw one bonus point for scoring four tries in a game and one bonus point for losing by less than eight points.
The rules of the draw stipulated that the 2022–23 champions of the three European domestic leagues (Saracens, Toulouse and Munster) alongside holders La Rochelle would be drawn into separate pools and the draw was as follows:
A Saracens, Bulls, Bordeaux, Bristol, Connacht, Lyon
B Toulouse, Cardiff, Bath, Racing 92, Harlequins, Ulster
C Munster, Bayonne, Glasgow, Exeter, Toulon, Northampton
D La Rochelle, Stade Francais, Leicester, Stormers, Leinster, Sale
As is often the way this produced a “group of death” in Group D featuring the holders, the top side season to date in the French Top 14, last season’s URC finalists the Stormers and perennial European contenders Leinster and two of the three ante-post favourites.
I’ll have an Outright ante-post preview in this column.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 34780 profit +1506.90 ROI +4.33% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
