Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Newbury and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso.
- Football, Premier League fixtures including Aston Villa v Manchester City
- NFL, Week 8 fixtures include the Green Bay Packers at the Pittsburgh Steelers
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Cricket, New Zealand v England ODI in Mount Maunganui
- Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters
Free Tip
Gallagher Prem Rugby Bath v Bristol 3.05pm Saturday
Two teams who have won 3 of their first 4 league games of the season meet in an always feisty local derby this weekend.
Bath lost 22-20 at Leicester last weekend to the last kick of the game to lose their first game of the season to fall to third in the early league table. Not a great performance by their standards, especially from Finn Russell who had an off day but also they struggled with Leicester’s uncompromising approach up front.
Bristol are known for their explosive attacking game, all high tempo and work rate, which they have displayed in both home matches this season, putting 42 points on Leicester in the first game of the season and 49 against Gloucester last week.
Away performances have been less prolific, a 18-14 loss at Exeter and a 50-17 loss at Saracens.
This game is their first meeting since the Play-off semi-final last season at Bath which the hosts won 34-20. Funnily enough the point spread for this game is Bristol +15.5. That’s an interesting spread, getting above the key number of two converted tries (14 points) against a team that, in their home games, has beaten Sale by 12 points and Gloucester by 21 points so far this season. Bristol are a better team than Gloucester and at similar levels to Sale.
11 points Bristol +15.5 points at 10/11 generally
Giving rugby wings
Newcastle rugby has struggled over several years at the foot of the Gallagher Premiership rugby table, protected by the absence of relegation, finishing bottom in each of the past three seasons.
Prospects looked gloomy for the current season with a recruitment freeze in place.
Their fortunes were then transformed with a takeover this summer by global energy drinks company Red Bull. For the league itself, the arrival of such a big company is a sign of the green shoots of recovery, following on from increased television audiences and a long-term broadcast deal with TNT Sports and part of a plan to make clubs as investable as possible rather than relying on funding from wealthy supporter-benefactors to survive.
Newcastle have been desperate for new investment, there were genuine fears that they could go the same way as Worcester Warriors, Wasps and London Irish and go out of business altogether.
Instead Newcastle can now draw upon the expertise of Red Bull and their wide sporting portfolio. Newcastle's new owners will use their experience in how to market teams and athletes to generate further interest in the English club game.
Part of their plan will be to invest in talent and a pathway and there's a huge amount of talent in the North East.
Given Red Bull's record of turning struggling football and Formula 1 teams into superpowers and heavyweight investment in top-end cycling and ice hockey, they are surely not going to stand for scraping the bottom of the Prem for long.
When the club opened season ticket sales after the news they recorded the highest demand for 10 years, up 197% on 2024's first-day trading.
In the short term the takeover came a bit late for this season. The recruitment cycle was over in France for this season for example but Red Bull made funds available before completion to end the recruitment freeze.
All bar one subsequent signing have contracts that run to the end of the season, suggesting they are stop-gap signings, while bigger names are lined up.
Newcastle are bound by the Prem's spending cap. Red Bull is worth billions, but can only spend £6.4m in wage with one marquee player excluded from that limit.
Credits exist for producing home-grown talent and penalties are liable for fielding too many players who do not qualify for England.
Red Bull's entry into the Prem marks the end of a year-long search for a buyer for Newcastle. Early last autumn, long-time club owner Semore Kurdi brought in A&W Capital, specialists in the sale of sports teams, to find someone to take the club on.
It was a pressing concern not just for Kurdi, who has put many millions of his own money into the club since becoming owner in 2011, or Newcastle, but the league as a whole.
After the demise of Worcester Warriors, Wasps and London Irish, another club going under would have reduced the Prem to nine teams. Each round would involve only four fixtures and the gate receipts and product for broadcasters and sponsors would shrink. Other top-flight clubs, along with CVC Partners who part-own the league, were prepared to loan Newcastle £4m to keep them upright.
Newcastle's dire circumstances and Kurdi's desire to see the club in good hands meant Red Bull could cut a deal with little initial cost beyond taking on responsibility for the club's £39m debts.
The plan to rename Newcastle Falcons as Newcastle Red Bulls was simple and supported.
Prem Rugby hopes it is the start of a new sustainable era, in which clubs are owned and grown by corporate investors, rather than propped up by local business owners and benefactors.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st October 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be inning + £65,159 All bets have an ROI +2.45%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,158, a 1629% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford-on-Avon.
- Football, Premier League fixtures including Liverpool v Manchester United
- NFL, Week 7 fixtures include the LA Rams at the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley stadium
- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
- Cricket, New Zealand v England T20I in Christchurch
- Golf, The Bank of Utah Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Genesis Championship in Korea on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Erste Bank Open and the Swiss Indoor Open
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Free Tip
Prem Rugby Leicester v Bath 3.05pm Saturday
Leicester Tigers went to Northampton last week and lost 32-26, in a game where they lost the lead five times.
With a new head coach this season, the departure of several very experienced senior players and Australian marquee player fly-half James O’Connor settling in (he started on the bench at Northampton) some lack of accuracy and cohesion problems made the difference between a narrow loss and holding on for the win in the second half.
With only one win from their first three league games this season admittedly with two tough away games at Bristol and Northampton included, its been a slow start for the Tigers but I would expect them to be much better in the second half of the season.
Defending Grand Final champions Bath rugby meanwhile are very much the finished article and have won three out of three to start the season.
Finn Russell is now back after 10 weeks off following thr Lions tour, Ollie Lawrence is back from injury and new recruits Henry Arundell and Santi Carreras provide more firepower.
Up front Thomas Du Toit is back from playing for South Africa in the rugby Championship to play in the front row alongside Will Stuart and in the back-row Sam Underhill remains one of the best defensive players in the league at the breakdown.
Results so far show a prolific attacking unit, 47-31 against Harlequins, 28-16 against Sale Sharks and last week 38-17 at home to Gloucester. In those three wins Bath have made the most visits to the opposition 22 of any team this season.
For now, Bath are some distance ahead of Leicester, and whilst they are away here the -4.5-point quote is skinny given the differences in the teams.
15 points Bath to win -4.5 points at 10/11 generally.
Overton Window
Playing on an Ashes tour should be the defining moment of a cricketer's career. So, the news that Jamie Overton has rejected the chance to go to Australia this winter is big news and another sign of changing priorities for some players operating on the franchise circuit and in Test cricket. Overton cannot risk an injury (he’s had two stress fractures of his back in the last three years) that would jeopardise a lucrative franchise future.
Overton has in the last year played in the Hundred, IPL, Big Bash and ILT20 in the Middle East. Salaries can hit £200,000 in Australia's Big Bash, or the SA20, or £150,000 in the ILT20. For a cricketer such as Overton on the fringes of the test side having played in two games so far, with perhaps a few years at most of maximum earning potential left, favouring franchises is logical given a fast bowlers career is fragile.
Is this a sign that other, younger players might follow? We’ll see.
This news came at the end of an August dominated by The Hundred and with no Test cricket, the exciting five India test matches being shoe-horned into six weeks beforehand.
There is no prospect of this changing now August is given over to The Hundred apart from the county 50-over competition now mostly played as a development tournament.
Undoubtedly the Hundred has proven a terrific success for the Women’s game and is attracting a new audience (30% of the attendees are women, 40% families). Where there is unlikely to be a rapprochement is with the cricket hard-core following/county members who beyond disliking the Hundred format (and disliking change overall!) see disruptions to an established summer schedule to benefit something they do not attend or watch.
There are significant changes due for the Hundred in 2026 now that the strings are going to be pulled by the new part-owners including five IPL owners. A move to T20 is favoured by the new stakeholders, plus a new auction recruitment process to further promote the idea of parity. The Oval Invincibles have just won three Hundreds in a row, and five players have played every Oval game over all five Hundred years so far. It looks likely that the Invincibles side will now be broken up.
Quite what new fans of the Invincibles side are meant to think when they see, for example, Sam Curran turning out for a side based in Leeds or Cardiff next year is not clear yet. Perhaps they won’t care as traditional cricket fans would.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, York and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham.
- NFL, Week 6 including the Detroit Lions at the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
- Football, World Cup Qualifying, Latvia v England on Tuesday
- Golf, The India Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Almaty, Nordic and European Opens.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby
Northampton v Leicester Tigers 3.05pm Saturday
The third weekend of the new season sees the Midlands derby between Northampton and Leicester, bitter rivals.
Northampton have begun the season with two high scoring games, firstly a 33-33 draw at home to Exeter. They were 33-7 up at half time! Then a 37-35 win at Gloucester. They were 31-0 up at half time in that one.
Leicester meanwhile lost 42-24 in Bristol on opening weekend before beating Harlequins 29-19 at home last weekend from 16-0 down.
In the putative league table this means 4th plays 5th here.
I was at the Harlequins game and the first half was really poor from the Tigers with a woeful lineout. Very predictable in attack and hammered at the breakdown.
In the second half they scored 29 unanswered points behind a dominant scrum and were clinical in the red zone.
It’s not surprising that Leicester will be a “work in progress” in the first part of the season. There’s a new Head coach in ex Leicester/England player and recent Australia forwards coach Geoff Parling and in the off-season there were departures/retirements fo important players like Pollard, Montoya, Youngs and Coles.
New fly half James O’Connor was called back to play in the Rugby Championship for Australia too. He's back in the UK now and might well play this weekend.
Leicester’s traditional strengths are in the forwards and the kicking game but the arrival over the past two years of wingers Ollie Hassell-Collins and Adam Radwan have given them speed and finishing potential out wide helping the team (which finished second to Bath last year) keep pace with a changing domestic game that sees more attacking (fitness and specialist attack coaches) and bonus points for 4+ tries in a game.
Northampton have been in the vanguard of that change as an exciting, attacking side. 70 points in the first two weeks of the season missing their Lions quartet of Tommy Freeman, Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell and Henry Pollock is a good start, and they are all available this weekend. but there is an Achilles heel in the defence as conceding 68 points to two presumed bottom-half of the table sides shows. "Of course, its a mental thing. Sometimes its hard to coach that" their director of rugby said about their early season defensive frailties in the second half.
The game is priced up Northampton 1/3 Leicester 12/5 outright and Northampton -7 on the handicap spread. I think the definite value is Leicester with the points on the assumption that Parling is on the way to tightening the defence and the Leicester attack can keep pace with Northampton.
12 points Leicester Tigers +7 at 20/21 Bet365 and 10/11 generally
Shelved
County chiefs voted to turn down a 13-game structure for the Championship from next summer after earlier plans to cut the schedule to 12 matches were shelved. The competition has been played over 14 rounds in a two-divisional structure since 2017.
There has been a county-led review into the whole domestic calendar following pressure from players and some administrators over the condensed schedules.
“We have 18 counties that agree that it’s not right, but 19 different versions of what the answer is” said the review chairman.
Any change required a vote with two-thirds (i.e. 12 out of 18 counties) in favour. Counties announced earlier this month they had agreed to cut the Vitality Blast schedule from 14 group matches to 12, with the knockouts and Finals Day following straight after, before the Hundred.
On the County Championship a number of options were mooted with a strong push to cut the schedule to 12 games. However, it became clear that, after resistance from their members, enough counties would oppose the proposals. Counties who told their members they would not support a reduction were: Middlesex, Surrey, Somerset, Kent, Essex, Derbyshire and Yorkshire.
That left a 12-game structure dead in the water, but counties then discussed a tweaked 13-game structure. Changes would have started next season with the aim of keeping the same structure in place until 2031.
Exactly how a 13-game structure would have operated is unclear, but it was highly likely to include a top flight of 12 teams split across two pools of six, above a lower tier “Championship 2”, consisting of six teams. The top 12 for 2026 would have been made up of the 10 Division One teams for this year, plus the two teams promoted from Division Two. The two pools would be seeded based on ranking from the previous season.
One option was thought to include a 12-match regular season then a “13th round” against teams in the equivalent position in the other pool to decide final standings. Another was a 10-match regular season (home and away against the other five in that team’s pool), plus a three-match series against a team in a similar position in the table to determine final placings and prize money.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newcastle, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Liverpool and Leeds v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the final round of the rugby championship, Australia v New Zealand and Argentina v South Africa
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
- Golf, The Baycurrent Classic on the USPGA and the Spanish Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, The ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters continues
Free Tip
Rugby Championship Round 6 Australia v New Zealand Perth 6.30am Saturday
The last round of the 2025 Rugby Championship, one of the most even/competitive in years. South Africa lead New Zealand by a point both having won three games. Australia in 3rd are a long shot to win the Championship. They need to win here and hope Argentina upset South Africa this weekend at Twickenham.
It’s a shame that there is no Rugby Championship next year, the tournament is moving to being held every other year with the advent of the Nations Championship.
Last week at Eden Park, Auckland, the toughest of the New Zealand venues for an away side Australia were 20-3 down in round 5, fought back to 26-24 down in the second half then conceded a late try after a 70th minute yellow card to lose 33-24, a competitive performance.
Australia’s revival over the last six months has been good news for World Rugby. Their fitness level is impressive and the rugby league strain in their play has them attacking in numbers and at pace. Their defence needs some attention and they are short of depth at scrum half and fly half. They have been relying on veteran James O’Connor (Leicester Tigers bound shortly) at 10, and he is not a game controller/kicker out of hand when circumstances require, but he can prompt some dangerous attacking patterns.
For this week, the return fixture in Perth key forwards Will Skelton and Rob Valetini (on the bench) are back and we saw the impact of the power and physicality of both in their impact on the Lions series during the summer. Scrum Half Tate McDermott misses the match with a hamstring injury suffered last week and veteran Nic White has again agreed to postpone his retirement for this week.
Lock Skelton returned to his French club after helping the Wallabies to one win and one loss on their tour of South Africa, while loose forward Valetini has been in and out of the side this year because of a recurring calf issue.
Prices for this game are Australia +4.5 on the spread and 13/8 outright (New Zealand 8/15). With Skelton and Valetini back, I am going to have a small value bet on Australia outright. They are not far off.
10 points Australia to win at 13/8 Betfred, 6/4 generally
Sub-optimal
The Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) is proposing reducing the number of professional sides in Wales from four to two in a radical plan which includes its "optimal solution" for transforming the struggling game.
A six-week consultation period is concluding where the Union presented its favoured option to stakeholders before a final decision on the plans, which was expected to be made by the end of September.
Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets are currently the four professional men's sides in Wales, but the WRU is suggesting the number of teams is halved. The news comes despite the fact that Ospreys have plans to move into a revamped stadium at St Helen's in Swansea for the 2026-27 season, while Scarlets have recently unveiled new investors.
Dragons said this week that elite professional rugby must continue in Gwent, while Cardiff are currently owned by the WRU.
It remains unclear whether the two future sides being proposed will be new entities or existing teams. There could be 50 players in each men's squad with a budget of £7.8m each.
The Union says the two squads would feature predominantly Welsh-qualified players, while there would be a rethink on non-Welsh qualified players. There will also be a transition to contracting of players and staff within central national academies. Phase two would involve the clubs moving to training at one site which will be known as a national campus.
The WRU said in July the current system was failing and unsustainable and that it was looking at a more radical strategy. This came after Wales' men's side had lost a record-breaking 18 international matches in a row and slipped to 12th in the world rankings, while the four regions have struggled in the United Rugby Championship (URC) and European competitions.
The number of professional sides in Wales was most recently reduced in 2004, when the Celtic Warriors ceased to exist after only one year of competing. That came after Welsh rugby had switched from the professional club model to a regional system of five sides in 2003.
Reaction to the intended proposals has been universally negative whether it be fans of the existing four teams, current players, former players or journalists.
The essential problem a franchise model has in Wales is that Welsh rugby is village v village, town v town, it’s tribal. Asking people from Maesteg and Neath to support Swansea, or Pontypool to support Cardiff hasn’t been an easy process that cutting to two franchises will make even harder.
As recently retired Wales hooker Ken Owens said after the announcement
“The issue with all this is, we’re forgetting about the cultural element of it and what the effect of dropping 2 teams, going from 4 to 2 is going to have on communities across Wales and no one’s really listening to that”
Other points raised include
- On match days 46 pro players will be involved rather than the current four team number of 92. This doesn’t seem like it is expanding opportunities at the highest club level possible for Welsh talent.
- It would only make sense if they remove the 25-cap rule as loads of players will simply go elsewhere if they can’t play in Wales.
- The 2 remaining teams will just fill the teams with non-Welsh players to compete and win in club rugby. Where does that leave the pathway for Welsh players? It’s short-sighted.
- The WRU rips up 20 years of work and dedication of the four Regions to solve their own inadequacies. All the problems in Welsh Rugby at the moment stem from the WRU.
- The £7.8m playing budgets would be less than the best funded pro clubs were operating on five years ago.
- If two new teams are made then who wants to play for a team with no history and no loyal and passionate supporters? All the best Welsh players will want that and find it outside of Wales.
- The top end comes first but it needs to be underpinned by grassroots...Wales has gone top heavy for too long and it has eroded the game’s foundations.
This will be the type of feedback being given in the current consultation process.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle United v Arsenal
- Rugby Union, the opening weekend of the Gallagher Premiership season.
- Golf, The Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Links at Carnoustie on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters.
Free Tip
2025 Ryder Cup Top European Points scorer
Looking back over the 2018-21-23 Ryder Cups Rory McIlroy, the one player we would confidently expect to play all five sets of European team matches in 2025 has played in the following positions
2023 1st pair once 4th pair three times
2021 3rd pair once 4th pair twice (didn’t play one round)
2018 first pair once, second pair twice, fourth pair once
So overall Position 1: 2 Position 2: 2 (but not since 2018) Position 3: 1 Position 4: 6
I’d suggest as the “banker” player this time he’d go out 1st (maybe Rahm/Hatton leading off first morning) and/or 4th pair (McIlroy with Lowry/Fleetwood) in 2025, but here I would also suggest he would run into Bradley doing the same with Scheffler and DeChambeau, his two “bankers” across two pairs.
Rory is 9/2 top European scorer, but the matchups that are likely are going to make that bad value. He’s a dog to Scheffler in most pairings, everyone is.
Fleetwood is suggested as another player who might play five rounds, but he is a McIlroy partner, twice out of four pairs in 2023.
So who else might play all four pairs pre-singles?
We can rule out Hojgaard, Fitz, Straka (a rookie and foursomes players). Rahm playing on LIV is 5/1 second favourite, but I am not a huge fan of LIV form. Hatton has temperament problems. Rose is a big ask to play five rounds as a veteran. Lowry is tied to McIlroy’s fortunes. MacIntyre and Aberg: maybe.
In 2023 Viktor Hovland played all five matches (3.5 points). In 2021 he played all five (1 point).
Firms offer 1/4 3 places at up to 10-1 about Hovland. Isn’t he great value to a) play a lot b) miss going out 1st or 4th against Scottie and/or Bryson and c) finish top 3 in this market?
10 points each way (1/4 1,2,3) Viktor Hovland Top European Points Scorer at 11/1 Sky Bet, 10/1 BetVictor and Paddy Power, 9/1 Betfred
All Change
The men’s T20 Vitality Blast will be reduced from 14 to 12 group-stage games from 2026 to streamline the competition and ease the workload on players in the latest reshuffle of English domestic cricket.
The reduction in the number of games will allow the competition to be played in a block with Finals day held before the Hundred starts in Augus, rather than before, stumbling back to life in September.
The hope is that this will enable counties to retain overseas players for the entire competition period, play games on more sellable days of the week and give players more rest between matches. It will also greatly reduce the number of back-to-back fixtures.
The 18 first-class counties voted through the change in line with the recommendations of the county-led men’s Domestic Playing programme review and in harmony with the wishes of the players’ union, the Professional Cricketers’ Association.
The counties will be divided into three regional groups of six with counties playing each other home and away, plus one home game and one away game against a county outside their group giving each county an opportunity to play every other on a rolling basis.
Attendance figures for the Blast have fallen sharply since a peak of 950,000 tickets sold in 2019, knocked first by Covid and then by the introduction of the Hundred in 2021. The review’s steering group, believes that rejigging the fixtures alone will not be enough to reinvigorate the Blast and more innovative moves such as the introduction of a central investment fund will be needed.
Where there has previously been widespread county opposition to any reduction in the number of lucrative Blast games, the Hundred windfall has given the counties more wriggle room.
Meanwhile the Hundred could be changed to a T20 competition as soon as next year. The 100-ball format is enshrined in the ECB’s domestic TV contracts with Sky Sports and the BBC until 2028 but both broadcasters are open to switching to T20 next summer if requested by the newly formed Hundred board, a change of heart from both.
The sale of, in most cases, minority stakes in the eight franchises for £520m this year has altered the power dynamics, however, with the new co-owners expected to have a huge influence over the future of the competition given the collective size of their investment. Four of the joint owners are IPL franchises, two are Indian‑American consortiums, and two are US investment companies.
The IPL owners in particular want to switch to T20 to align with the other franchise leagues where they operate teams in India, South Africa, the US and the United Arab Emirates. The T20 format will also be used in the Olympics when cricket returns after 132 years at Los Angeles 2038, which is particularly significant given India are bidding to host the Games in 2036.
The Hundred this summer is in effect a transitional tournament before the new owners formally come on board on 1 October, when the sales of Oval Invincibles and Trent Rockets are due to be completed.
While Sky and the BBC have resisted ditching the Hundred until this point, there is a growing feeling that it would be better to relaunch the competition with a bang next year rather than make a series of incremental changes. There will be other significant innovations next year, including new team names at some franchises, new commercial deals and a fresh digital strategy.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st June 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £65,960 All bets have an ROI +2.55%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £69,960, a 1649% increase.
