Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd November
Coming Up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Southwell.
- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v New Zealand
- NFL, Week Nine
- Cricket, England’s One Day International Series in the West Indies continues
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Golf, the Worldwide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Gijon and Moselle Opens
Free Tip
England v New Zealand 3.10pm Saturday Twickenham
The First weekend of a month of Autumn Internationals. England face New Zealand, Australia and South Africa on successive weekends before ending their Autumn campaign against Japan.
England showed some encouraging signs last season to back up their semi-final finish in the 2023 Rugby World Cup. In the Six Nations they recorded three wins, including a famous victory at home to Ireland, and in their two losses they came really close in the last game in Paris losing 33-31 to France. Overall under Borthwick they have only won 13 of 24 games as he has rebuilt from the dramas of the tail-end of the Eddie Jones era.
What was notable was that towards the end of the Championship the team was attacking well and scoring “flair” tries, a rarity for a few years.
England then travelled for two tests in New Zealand in early summer and lost both games narrowly by one and 7 points and have yet to take the next step of winning the very tight games against the top opponents.
Since the summer there has been upheaval. Defence coach Felix Jones resigned in August and claimed to have made his decision because of an "unstable working environment" whilst head of strength and conditioning Aled Walters has taken up a similar role with Ireland.
Joe El-Abd has taken over the defence while performing his director of rugby duties with Oyonnax until the end of the season and Dan Tobin is in charge of conditioning until Phil Morrow can be prised away from Saracens.
In addition these games will be England’s first experience under trialled rule changes including 20-minute red cards and a time limit on scrum and lineout formations. A full red card will still be shown to players guilty of deliberate and dangerous acts of foul play but the unintentional and accidental collisions will only leave a team short-handed for 20 minutes.
England’s opponents in this series have already been playing under new rules in Rugby Championship, a source of unhappiness for England’s coaches.
The squad for November which sees the injured first-choice half-back Alex Mitchell and and Ben Spencer will play at scrum half and Marcus Smith outside him with the hope that Smith especially will bring out the best of the England backs. Up front second row Ollie Chessum was injured in training camp and misses the whole series, an important loss. Slade and Dombrandt are in the squad despite no domestic play this season through injury.
A refresher on the All Blacks where the Internatrional game has faced player departures to France and Japan led by the finances on offer, the retirements of key players such as Retallick and Whitelock (with Same Cane to follow at the end of the year) and a new coaching team in place led by Scott Robertson who lead the all-conquering Crusaders in Super Rugby for many years.
After the England matches Robertson’s first Rugby Championship game saw a shock loss at home to Argentina, ending in second place losing both games to champions South Africa.
New Zealand’s back line is as threatening as ever but beyond the first choice pack the defections and retirements temporarily leave the All Black squad lacking experienced depth, which has been an issue late in a number of games this year where performance has fallen away after substitutions.
In this squad three players who were initially named are now unavailable: Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papali’i have all been ruled out for calf, thumb and hamstring injuries respectively.
They warmed up with a 64-19 win in Japan last weekend in which most first choice players were rested.
I would expect this to be a close game and am not surprised to see the sides priced New Zealand 4/7 and England 6/4 consistent with recent results, though England now have home advantage. New Zealand are -4 on the handicap, a line that has moved from -2.5 this week. After that line move above ther key 3 point mark I'm on England with the spread.
11 points England +4 points at 10/11 widely available
Jetting off
After Week 3 of the NFL season the New York Jets moved to 2-1. The offense looked sharp and Quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked healthy. Two games later, the Jets were 2-3 and owner Woody Johnson fired coach Robert Saleh.
The timing made little sense, especially with the upcoming Monday night visit from the 3-2 Bills in a key divisional game. Win that and win Week 7 at Pittsburgh, and the Jets would be 4-3 and in contention to win the division.
Salah was hired in 2021 and took a a 2-14 team that was -214 in points differential the season before to a competitive position. The Jets went “all in” on a veteran Quarterback but unfortunately the offense still isn’t working consistently.
Salah though is from a defensive background and through his tenure the Jets defense has been very strong. Since the 2021 season the Jets defense is 1st in points per drive, 1st in Expected points added per play and 3rd in success rate despite playing the fourth-most snaps over that stretch due to the ineffectiveness of the offense.
Under offensive co-ordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers’man, the offense was never solved though. The Jets owner considered the roster ready to compete now but this season they are 23rd in EPA per play and 21st in drop back success rate. The Jets need a total offensive overhaul and that's not feasible mid-season. The very talented running back Breece Hall is under-performing and the on-field relationship between Rodgers and top wide receiver Garrett Wilson is yet to mesh.
It’s far from clear how promoting a defensive co-ordinator to Head coach helps the offensive situation and onlookers are left thinking that Rodgers has got what he wanted, the people around him he wants but no long term solutions yet.
Big picture, the Jets haven't had a head coach finish their tenure with a winning percentage above 50% since 2000, as long term mediocrity continues.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League matches include Arsenal v Liverpool
- NFL, Week Eight
- Cricket, England’s White Ball tour of the West Indies begins next week
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters
Free Tip
Mexico Grand Prix, Sunday 7pm
Five races to go in the 2024 F1 season and Verstappen goes into the final stages of the season 57 points ahead of Lando Norris despite having not won a race since Spain 10 races ago. This is a measure of his domination in the first part of the season and secondly the extent to which upgrades at McLaren have caught them up as the season has progressed.
Since Verstappen’s last win there have been five different winners from three different teams and McLaren have won four races, two each for Norris and Piastri.
As well as the steady McLaren upgrades and Ferrari continuing to be competitive Red Bull have been hamstrung by wind-tunnel use restrictions imposed prior to the start of the season because of cost cap breaches.
As they head to Mexico, just 48 points cover McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari in the Constructors' Championship and that's going to be exciting and tense in the closing stages, given both cars can score points in each team. Mexico’s circuit is characterised by very long straights and one slow stadium section at the end of the lap.
As Norris qualified on pole in Austin last weekend he’ll be a favourite this time too, albeit a poor start left him in fourth place, where he finished following a penalty when overtaking Verstappen late in the race.
The head of the market for the race sees LeClerc, Verstappen and Norris 11/4 each of three.
Leclerc won Monza and since then perhaps should have won Baku, underperformed his and the car's potential in Singapore, but has been very strong of late and its understandable he’s at least joint favourite and the market is a change from races late summer when Norris was clear favourite and reflecting Ferrari’s two wins since. However McLaren have won 3 of the last 5 and Norris too.
13 points Lando Norris to win the Mexico Grand Prix with William Hill
Southern Braves.
Rod Bransgrove the pharmaceutics entrepreneur who bankrolled Hampshire’s move to their new ground in 2001 and who owns more than 60% of the shares in Hampshire Cricket has sold a controlling stake in the county club to GMR Group, owner of the IPL franchise Delhi Capitals and other teams around the world for a reported £120m.
Hampshire have just finished second in the county championship, to go with near misses the previous two years. With a bit of investment, one or two new players and some improvements the very flat pitch at the Utilita Bowl they could be a genuine threat to Surrey’s dominance and achieve their first title since 1973 and become a proper cricketing powerhouse. Hampshire’s female counterparts, the Southern Vipers, are already that and with a strong following.
There will be player swaps. Hampshire’s young talent could get fast-tracked into GMR’s other franchise teams (eg in UAE, US, and South Africa) and Delhi players might be loaned to Hampshire. Sourav Ganguly, a director of GMR, could persuade Rishabh Pant to make some guest appearances in England for example. Both parties will use their fanbases to broaden engagement and reach and share sponsors. The deal gives Delhi Capitals a proper presence in the UK.
GMR are buying a stadium, and the land and property around it. There is a hotel, a restaurant, entertainment spaces and a golf course, and room for more development on the outskirts of Southampton. It is suitable to host events of all kinds not just international cricket matches (the venue will stage its first ever Ashes Test in 2027) but exhibition games (presumably featuring the Delhi Capitals and GMR’s other teams), golf tournaments, concerts, banquets, conferences and exhibitions etc.
The Utilita Bowl should become the best outdoor facility in that populous corridor all along the south coast from Sussex to Dorset.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Chelsea
- NFL, Week Seven of the new season including New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium.
- Cricket, England’s Test Series continues in Pakistan with the third Test in Rawalpindi
- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
- Golf, The ZOZO Championship on the USPGA Tour and Genesis Championship in Korea on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Erste Bank and Basel Opens.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby
Bristol v Saracens Saturday 3.05pm
Four rounds into the season and the two two in the early league table meet at Ashtonm Gate. Both teams have three wins and a loss, with Bristol a point ahead of Saracens on bonus points won.
Following on from their fast-attacking approach of previous seasons, which didn’t always lead to wins it has to be said, Bristol have been prolific this season to date scoring 41,24,40 and 36 points the 36 points in a 5 try underdog win at Bath last weekend where a fast start saw them 19 points ahead and eventually winning by 10.
That result might have flattered them, Bath put in an error-strewn performance but full credit for the result of the season so far.
Bristol lost 41-44 Glouc beat Newcastle, Exeter and Bath away 41 24 40 36 points 5 tries 19 ahead. Bath error strewn performance.
In their first season following the departure of Owen Farrell to France there is a faint air of rebuilding about Saracens as young players begin to find their way into the first team. That said they can still field a team full of internationals with Daly, George, Earl, Itoje etc and are a really tough nut to crack in defence.
So far they’ve beaten Sale, Gloucester and Exeter, their one reverse coming in a 178-10 loss to Harlequins, the one game they’ve not put up points (45,35,29 in the three other games)
Odds for this game are interesting. Saracens are 2.5-point favourites and 4/6 outright, Bristol 5/4+. First thing to do was check the weather, Saracens would be favoured by tough conditions but my apps tell me dry with some sun on Saturday, so all set fair for Bristol’s running rugby.
It’s about time I had a rugby winner (Northampton resting players for a local derby in Leicester last weekend, public after I went live, was not on the agenda). The home underdog will do me here, outright
10 points Bristol Bears to win at 7/5 William Hill, 13/10 Coral/Ladbrokes
Crowded House.
There will be no meaningful reduction in the volume of men's county cricket played in 2025, despite more than 80% of players reporting fears for their physical health due to the busy schedule.
A Professional Cricketers' Association (PCA) survey at the start of this season found that the majority of players believe the schedule is not fit for purpose but next season each county will still play a minimum of 14 matches in the County Championship, eight in the Metro Bank Cup and 14 in the Vitality T20 Blast.
The PCA are still pushing for changes which would see T20 fixtures more spread out across a week to reduce the number of tight turnarounds, and for uniform three-day gaps between Championship matches.
It feels that the Blast was scheduled through a commercial lens, trying to squeeze as many games as possible into Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Utilising the majority of the week is probably the way forward, trying to spread them out to give that time for recovery, travel and preparation.
The main point of discussion for the 2025 schedule has been around the T20 Blast, and when the knockout stages should be held. In 2023, they took place straight after the group stages in July, allowing counties to keep hold of their overseas playe. This year they took place in mid-September.
This year's Blast schedule was described as "ridiculous" by Kent's T20 captain Sam Billings, who said that staging the final two months after the group stages "just does not make sense". If it remains in September next year it will overlap with England's white-ball series against South Africa.
The ECB has announced England’s international fixtures for 2025 with incoming men's tours from Zimbabwe, India, West Indies and South Africa. The Hundred will be played in August, starting immediately after the fifth Test against India and running until the end of the month.
Of course the fact that the Hundred blocks out August is the essential problem, we have one too many tournament for the months available, marginalising the 50 over competition and reducing the profile of the Blast final weekend.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket and York, over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, UEFA Nations League matches include England v Greece.
- NFL, Week Six of the new season including Chicago Bears v Jacksonville Jaguars at Tottenham Stadium.
- Cricket, England’s Test Series continues in Pakistan with the second Test in Multan
- Golf, The Shriners Children’s Open on the USPGA Tour and Andalucia Masters on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Almaty, Antwerp and Nordic Opens
Free Tip
Leicester v Northampton Gallagher Premiership 5.30pm Saturday
In the fourth round of games of the new Gallagher Premiership season this East Midlands Derby, a fierce rivalry, is the highlight.
After a disappointing season last time with an 8th placed finish Leicester recruited the former Australia and Argentina coach Michael Chieka to become their 8th coach in just over 7 years.
He takes over a Leicester team with a strong pack of forwards and a defence that only conceded 51 tries across 18 league games second best of the ten league teams.
Over the last few years, either side of and including the spell with Syeve Borthwick and Richard Wigglesworth in charge the tactics have generally been kick and defend, with the likes of Geroge Martin and Ollie Chessum to the fore in the second row and Tommy Reffell and Hanro Liebenberg in the back row. When available the marquee player Handre Pollard pulled the strings.
Cheika’s style won’t be as one dimensional and he’ll try to add more flair to the unstructured parts of the game to give Leicester more of an “all-court” style. He’ll also need to improve the team’s conditioning, they lost several games late on last season when fading away.
So far this season they’ve won two of three games, away wins at Exeter and Newcastle, and lost narrowly home to Bath, though only heroic defence meant it that the game remained close throughout.
Northampton are defending Premiership Champions. They opened disappointingly, losing by 22 points in Bath but then scored 30 to beat Exeter and last weekend 33 points to beat Harlequins. This is more like it for the most exciting side in the country with a very quick, attacking style of play.
In Finn Smith at fly half with Fraser Dingwall, Ollie Sleightholme, Tommy Freeman and George Furbank outside there are a collection of players breaking through into the England team. What Northampton are missing nowadays is a bit of grunt up front with Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam departing for France in the summer.
If they hold their own up front in this game, they should have too much gas for Leicester and I like them to win narrowly.
15 points Northampton to win at Evens widely available
Rebuild.
Former England cricket white ball coach Matthew Mott took England to three World Cups and won one of them, his team beating Pakistan at the MCG less than two years ago plus a semi-final in the T20 World Cup in June. However the 2023 50 over event in India saw a group stage exit and a series of poor performances.
Meanwhile Test coach Brendon McCullum overseen 19 wins, eight defeats and a single draw, and has given them a clear identity that they were sorely lacking. He is yet to win a series against the world's top two. England drew with Australia last summer, and were heavily beaten in India earlier this year.
Now McCullum has signed a new deal as England's men coach which will cover all formats and runs until the end of 2027 Timeframe of new contract includes 2025-26 + 2027 Ashes, 2025 Champions Trophy, 2026 T20 World Cup and 2027 50ov World Cup. The belief is that he can have the same effect as in the Test side on a stagnant white-ball set-up. It also reflects that it has been difficult to recruit from the pool of global cricket coaches in competition with the rewards on offer from the franchise circuit.
Only India play more men's international cricket than England, and England play more Tests than anyone. Their ludicrous fixture list was encapsulated by the 24-hour turnaround between the scheduled fifth-day finish of the recent third Test against Sri Lanka and the start of a T20I series against Australia.
McCullum's task will be to inject some energy into a white-ball set-up which felt desperately low by the time they were knocked out of June's T20 World Cup. He will watch from afar for 14 games, with Marcus Trescothick in interim charge, then will have a quick tour to India to make his mark before February's Champions Trophy.
The trouble lies further ahead, with a dilemma that is familiar to England's captains and coaches across the past two decades: how can you plan for both an Ashes series, and a World Cup straight after it?
Meanwhile Jos Buttler’s captaincy will be under scrutiny and he has never worked with McCullum.
In the period between Mott and McCullum England are rebuilding using younger players so we can't expect the white ball team to gel, straight away. England are moving on from the Moeen, Jordan, Buttler, Rashid generation and the ODI series against Australia just finished saw Brook, Bethell, Jacks, Jamie Smith, Carse and Potts selected.
The series saw Australia’s 13th ODI win in a row. Only their team of 2003 has more consecutive ODI victories for Australia.
The differences in squad composition can really be seen in the batting where Australia’s contains five of the current test top six including Head, Steve Smith and Labuschagne. Although minus the big three quicks Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood the line-up includes top spinner Zampa and a number of experienced franchise players
They look ready for major tournaments now, whereas England are at the start of another rebuild.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon, over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, Premier League Fixtures include Aston Villa v Manchester United
- NFL, Week Five of the new season including New York Jets against Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Stadium.
- Cricket, England’s Test Series begins in Pakistan on Monday in Multan.
- Golf, The Black Derset Championship on the USPGA Tour and The French Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters continues
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby Bath v Bristol Saturday 3.05pm
The third weekend of the new domestic rugby season brings one of the fiercest local Derbies in the league as second (Bath) host third (Bristol) on Saturday afternoon.
Bath have won their first two games of the season, at home to Northampton (last season’s winners) and away at Leicester. An encouraging start for a team which has recovered from the doldrums of the last decade with new owners investing into the playing squad and following the appointment of South African coach Johann Can Graan two years ago. Van Graan turned Bath around in his first season. The team's improvement in form over the course of the campaign culminated with a 61–29 win over Saracens on the final day, which saw them edge Bristol for eighth in the table and a place in the 2023–24 Champions Cup.
Then last off-season came the marquee recruitment of Scottish fly-half Finn Russell, recruited out of the French Top 14 and he, assisted by the squad depth accumulated the season before, led Bath to a second placed league finish, their highest placing since 2015, only to lose the play-off final narrowly, 25-21 to Northampton.
With Russell pulling the strings Bath are an exciting side, a challenge for all defenses with Ben Spencer at scrum-half, England’s Ollie Lawrence outside Russell and Muir and Cokanisaga talented wingers. In the forwards flanker Guy Pepper is a “coming name” in great form.
Pat Lam has coached Bristol since 2017, and recovered from several fallow years to a 5th placed finish last season just outside the play offs scoring 80 tries (9 more than Bath in second place) and following 10th and 9th place finishes the two seasons before after big squad turnover.
Bath sticking 38 points on Northampton week 1 was notable, and they narrowly missed putting a hatful on Leicester in Week 2, only tremendous defence kept them out.
Bristol meanwhile had a comfortable start, winning at probably the league’s weakest team Newcastle 24-3 before losing a thriller 41-44 at home to rejuvenated Gloucester last weekend, recovering from 41-23 down
If conditions permit this should be another high scoring game where the overall advantage should go to Bath because of superior defence, as both teams will be out to score plenty of tries
11 points Bath -9 points at 10/11 generally
New Formats
The Rugby Championship is set to take place only in alternate years and will not be held in 2026 due to the extended tour of New Zealand to South Africa under plans for ‘Greatest Rugby Rivalry’ tours where the groundwork is well underway for eight-week tours between South Africa and New Zealand every four years rotating through the two nations from 2026.
The impact on The Rugby Championship will be significant. The SANZAAR countries had previously agreed deal extending the Championship until 2030 and the news comes as Australian and New Zealand Rugby work towards their next broadcast deals with the current deal expiring in 2025.
The Rugby Championship would likely proceed in 2027 and 2029 but not 2026, 2028 or 2030 as it stands with every second year devoted to The Rugby Championship and the alternate years set aside for a “tour-like concept”. It is South Africa’s preference that the ChampionshipC go back to one off Tests rather than two per season but it was suggested in the media that New Zealand wanted to sideline the Championship altogether in those seasons.
The All Blacks tour of South Africa in 2026 will consist of three Tests, four matches against United Rugby Championship teams and a clash against South Africa A. They will also face the Springboks a fourth time at a neutral venue with Twickenham or the United States are listed as options.
International rugby programs are undergoing seismic change, as noted by Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt last week. He said.
“It’s a real mix, world rugby at the moment with the different competitions and agreements that exist. Six Nations is such a solidified competition that the Northern Hemisphere have a very exclusive club there and I know talking to the Georgian coaches they’d love to have a crack at getting into that competition.At the same time, [the new series] is not going to replace the Rugby Championship. The Rugby Championship, as far as I know, is going to continue but it will be truncated in that year.”
There’s alsoplanning and preparation around a Nations Cup that may be biannual and it may be that the teams from the Southern Hemisphere accumulate points versus the Northern Hemisphere.
However the significant revamp of international rugby in the southern hemisphere is leaving one stakeholder feeling left out all over again. While Australia’s leadership are putting a brave face on the new series, Argentinian rugby followers are concerned about what it means for that country. They’ve already lived through being cast aside from Super Rugby and there’s no doubt The Rugby Championship has helped build the big game quality of the World Cup semi-finalists.
Then there are concerns about the stated World Rugby intention to promote Fiji and Japan as part of the proposed Nations Champ concept.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
