Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th January

Posted on 2 Jan 2020 09:37 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, the third round of the FA Cup

- Racing, over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and all-weather racing at Kempston and Lingfield

- NFL Wild Card weekend at the start of the Play-Offs

- Golf, on the USPGA, The tournament of Champions in Hawaii

- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane, Shenzhen and Qatar

- Cricket, the second Test between South Africa and England in Cape Town


NFL Playoffs 2019 including Championship Games

The Play-offs begin this weekend and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50

The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link


 

Free tip

FA Cup Ante-post

The third round of the FA Cup this weekend and a look at the ante-post market for the competition. In nine out of the last ten seasons a “top six” side has won the Cup (the exception Wigan in 2012-13) but also in that time a variety of lesser fancied sides have made the final, including Watford last year and before that Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Hull City, Stoke City and Portsmouth in the last decade alone.

Of course the Cup as a competition doesn’t have the prominence it had previously, and where I tend to start whittling down the short-list for value is to accept that those sides battling at either end of the table will have other priorities. We currently have seven sides in Europe (Champions League four, Europa League three including Wolves) and as many as nine sides within four points of the Premier League bottom three.

For the top sides squads are deep and strong, so they can fight on multiple fronts and significant team rotation can be withstood remaining competitive. It’s not uncommon to see lesser sides with other priorities approach the cup half-heartedly, both in team selection and on the field.

My short-list begins with the logic that if there are sides who aren’t going to hit the top six and aren’t going down then they should be all out to try to win the competition. This doesn’t always follow, I have regular head scratching episodes for these teams who prioritise three Premier League points a few days later over progressing in the cup.

Anyway this season’s shortlist

Sheffield United

Crystal Palace

Newcastle United

Everton

Sheffield United are the best placed, in 8th position as I write having only lost 4 games so far this season, with a manager who emphasises game by game commitment and a squad primarily with a grounding in the lower leagues. I wouldn’t expect them to be challenging for the top six all season, but would expect them to take the Cup seriously.

Crystal Palace in 9th are a less solid proposition defensively but there is no reason why they shouldn’t look for a deep run in the competition.

Newcastle are 13th, with three wins in the run up to Christmas taking them to a position of safety. They are the least prolific of these sides, with 19 league goals in 17 games.

Everton under Ancelotti are presumably going to improve quickly but have the drawback here of being drawn away to Liverpool in the 3rd round.       

The shape of the market is as follows

Manchester City 3-1

Liverpool 6-1

Tottenham 7-1

Chelsea 8-1

Manchester United 12-1

Leicester 14-1

Arsenal 14-1

Wolves 25-1

Everton 33-1

West Ham 40-1

Crystal Palace 50-1

Sheffield United 50-1

Newcastle 50-1

Bar 66-1

Each way terms are ½ 1,2. Of course it is the each way aspect that appeals as the likelihood is that the cup will be one by one of the big sides, and any selection is going to need some fortune with the draw. On value grounds though, and looking at where else teams might be focussed on, I will take these two sides

5 points each way Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally

5 points each way Sheffield United to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally

 


The IPL Auction

The 2020 IPL which begins in April will be the 13th season of the competition which was won in 2019 by Mumbai Indians.

Pat Cummins became the most expensive overseas purchase in Indian Premier League (IPL) history as the Kolkata Knight Riders spent more than £1.6 million on the Australian fast bowler in the 2020 IPL Auction. Cummins, is number one in the ICC Test bowling rankings and his pace and accuracy marked him out as a standout player in the auction.

England limited overs captain Eoin Morgan was also bought by the Knight Riders most likely to be their captain and KKR look to be one of the early favourites with Morgan, Narine, Russell and Cummins their coterie of marquee overseas players.

There was also a big deal for all-rounder Sam Curran, who was bought by the Chennai Super Kings. Australian Glenn Maxwell, seam-bowling all-rounder Chris Morris of South Africa and West Indian left-arm fast bowler Sheldon Cottrell were three of the other marquee purchases as a number of high-profile names went under the hammer at the event in Kolkata.

Morgan will be joined at the Knight Riders by budding star Tom Banton, with the Somerset opening batsman set to get a first taste of T20 cricket’s premier franchise competition in 2020 after receiving a £110k deal.

Chris Jordan, Tom Curran, Chris Woakes and Jason Roy were also purchased in the auction, taking the English contingent in next year’s competition to 13. Harry Gurney, Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali and Jos Buttler were all retained by their teams before the auction.

The five biggest signings of the auction were:

£1.6 million: Pat Cummins, Kolkata Knight Riders.
£1.15 million: Glenn Maxwell, Kings XI Punjab
£1.1 million: Chris Morris, Royal Challengers Bangalore
£910k: Sheldon Cottrell, Kings XI Punjab
£855k: Nathan Coulter-Nile, Mumbai Indians

England players will play in the IPL in 2020 as follows:

Royal Challengers Bangalore: Moeen Ali
Kings XI Punjab: Chris Jordan
Delhi Capitals: Jason Roy, Chris Woakes
Chennai Super Kings: Sam Curran
Sunrisers Hyderabad: Jonny Bairstow
Kolkata Knight Riders: Eoin Morgan, Tom Banton, Harry Gurney
Mumbai Indians: 
Rajasthan Royals: Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, Tom Curran

 

 


StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium

From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase

 

 

The Road to Riches: The Christmas period

Posted on 20 Dec 2019 10:19 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Happy Christmas to all readers, after this weekend the next edition will be on Friday 3rd January

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League Matches include Manchester City v Leicester City and Tottenham v Chelsea

- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and all-weather racing at Lingfield

- NFL Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season

- Golf, The Australian PGA Championship

- Cricket, the first Test between South Africa and England at Centurion starts on Boxing Day


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)

By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link


 

Free tip

The Welsh Grand National, Friday 27th December Chepstow 12.30pm by Neil Channing

Colin Tizzard's horses remain in flying form and last year he had the winner of the Welsh Grand National with Elegant Escape. I really wanted to back him to win the Gold Cup if the going had been proper soft but it dried up a bit and that put me off. On bottomless ground I give him a great chance and think he's a miles better horse.
 
Last year he won comfortably enough on soft ground at 3/1 off a mark of 151 and went up 8 lbs and in the next race he was 2nd to Frodon at Cheltenham on slightly faster ground and over a shorter trip. He went up again to 162 for that and then threw in a couple of not so good runs in the Gold Cup and at Aintree, both on slightly faster ground again. What he needs is a long distance and really soft ground and that ought to be what he gets here as Chepstow hardly ever stays dry, it's almost heavy right now and it could easily rain there every day this week.
 
 This year he ran a great race to be 2nd in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and then again he ran a great 3rd in the Hennessey off his current mark of 160 staying on close home on ground that wasn't massively soft.
 
 It might seem a bit crazy betting a week out to get just 9/2 when you might suffer if he is a non-runner but I can't see him being over 3/1 on the day and he could be less. He really does tick every box and I can't see how he'll be out of the frame. At least now we lock in the 1/4 1234 before they all go 1/5th 12345 on the day.
 

 I'm having 12 Points each-way Elegant Escape at 9/2 1/4 1234 with SkyBet, Ladbrokes and Betfred.

 


The Brady Bunch

Despite three losses in their last six games, the New England Patriots remain in their usual December position: atop the AFC East and positioned as one of the top seeds in the conference, this time with a 11-3 record. Yet you can’t help but look at Tom Brady’s performance this season and feel like the six-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has lost a step. A closer examination shows Brady’s drop is dramatic enough to make him an average passer at best in 2019.

Brady has been named to the Pro Bowl 14 times in his 20-year career, but the 42-year-old isn’t as productive as he used to be and the Patriots overall are successful because of their strength on defense and special teams.

It’s easy to attribute Brady’s uneven performances this year to the loss of five-time Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski (retired), the failed Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown experiments and an overall lack of quality receiving options. However, Brady’s rate of “on target” throws has declined from 72% in 2018 to 65% this season, a number that is third worst amongst 26 quarterbacks with at least 300 passes thrown this year.

The truth is that Brady has been trending down for a few seasons. His completion rate is on a three-year decline, from close to a career high in 2016 (67%) to one of the lowest marks of his career in 2019 (61%).

The Patriots’ offense has been underwhelming. New England is averaging less than two points per drive, an average rate for this season and the fifth-lowest rate for the franchise since Coach Bill Belichick took over in 2000. The Patriots are also struggling in the red zone (49%, ranking 24th) and in goal-to-go situations (60%, 25th).

Alex Guerrero, Brady’s personal trainer, has speculated that the quarterback might play until he is 46 or 47. But if the current trends continue, the three-time NFL MVP could be retiring sooner than that.

 


StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium

For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.

From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th December

Posted on 11 Dec 2019 13:43 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League Matches include Arsenal v Manchester City

- Racing, over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and all-weather racing at Newcastle and Wolverhampton

- Rugby Union, the fourth round of Pol matches in this season’s Heineken Cup

- NFL Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season

- Golf, The Presidents Cup in Melbourne and the QBE Shootout


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)

Starting this weekend. By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link


Free tip

Saracens v Munster, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Round 4 Saturday 3pm

Pool 4 of this season’s Heineken Cup, containing Racing92, Saracens and Munster looked tough before the competition started and so it has proved for Saracens who now have two away losses in their first three games and as a result the defending tournament champions sit in third place in the pool.

Racing92 have won 3 from 3, most recently in Wales last weekend against a 14 man Ospreys side and with the same side visiting Paris this weekend will be confident of virtually wrapping up the pool.

That leaves Saracens and Munster likely scrapping for a best runners up spot in the knockout stages after the Six Nations.

Back in April a full strength Saracens side beat Munster 32-16 in the quarter finals of this competition. This season Saracens have played the competition so far without the majority of their International players, only recently back from the rugby world cup. In their 10-3 loss in Limerick last Saturday only Maro Itoje of the current international players took the field. Saracens, controversially with their salary cap infringements, do have a strong and balanced squad but going to Paris and Limerick without a full complement of players was a huge ask.

In Limerick, such were the terrible conditions in the second half as the wind and rain rolled in off the Atlantic, that is tempting to disregard the result. No points were socred in the second half after Munster had the wind advantage in the first half as as the weather worsened it became a game where it was best not to have the ball and it was impossible to claw back a deficit.

This weekend a number of Saracens’ international stars are due back, the weather forecast for London is ok and so in what is a must win game for Saracens we should expect the hosts to bounce back.

That is not to say it will be easy. Munster are a nuggety side, experienced and strong in defense with their 6-8-9 axis of O’Mahoney, Stander and Conor Murray top class. This season, where they have averaged over 26 points scored per game in seven Pro 14 games, they recruited former Australian international fly half Stephen Larkham as attack coach and he has added extra dimensions to their intended approach as conditions allow with offloads and expanision on the agenda.

So with a good defense and the ability to put up point enhanced they might run Saracens close. After all , a loss by seven points or less away from home for a losing bonus point isn’t the end of the world for Munster

I expect Saracens to win, but not by the 16 point margin of April.

8 points Saracens to win by 1-12 points at 13/8 with Ladbrokes/Coral


Relegation

It is highly unlikely that Saracens will be relegated from the Gallagher Premiership this season. The current champions will almost certainly stay up giving the rest a 35-point head-start such is their strength in depth across the squad. 

That spells trouble for the Leicester Tigers who were nearly relegated last season and just survived as Newcastle dropped into the Championship. Sides who might have expected to have struggled, for example promoted London Irish and Worcester, are competitive this season so it could well be that one of the domestic game’s bigger clubs will drop. Leicester have one win so far in four matches this season and are 22 points ahead of Saracens.

Leicester have a core of International players in May, Tuilagi, Ford, Youngs, Cole and Genge but squad depth lacks quality and most if not all of those players will be away on Six Nations duty from February. Beyond that though the club doesn’t have a coherent playing identity or depth in coaching either. As a result they lack both organisation and resilience. It is a tough recipe in the toughest Premiership for many seasons

Every now and then, Leicester managed to drive a maul, but there wasn’t much else for the visitors to fall back on. Their lineout was a car-crash — a problem area crying out for Steve Borthwick’s expertise, whenever the England forwards coach makes his move to Welford Road.

It could be that another coaching change is on the way,Geordan Murphy’s regime cannot remain intact if it doesn’t at least look like the players are unified and driven to perform more consistently. Wasps are also on the list of clubs in trouble but they appear to have slightly more quality.

If Leicester do drop, a stay of more than one season in the Championship is unlikely given the huge gap in resources from the top to the second tier in English rugby. It is to be hoped that such a drop will lead to the wholesale rebuilding changes on and off the field needed to restore the Tigers to long term competititveness.


StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium

For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.

From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

 

 

The Road to Riches Weened of 7th-8th December

Posted on 6 Dec 2019 09:02 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League Matches include Manchester City v Manchester United

- Racing, over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and all-weather racing at Wolverhampton

- NFL Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season

- Rugby Union, the third round of pool matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup

- Golf, On the European Tour the Mauritius Open and on the USPGA The Hero Golf Challenge in the Bahamas


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)

By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link


 

Free tip

Heineken Cup Rugby Pool round 3 Northampton v Leinster 1pm Saturday

A match between the two teams at the top of Pool three, and both will be expecting to make the knock-out stages. This is the first of two games between the two sides in consecutive weeks as rounds 3 and 4 of the pool stages see sides play each other home and away.

Both sides are unbeaten in the pool so far. Leinster beat Benetton 33-19 then won on a wet day in Lyon 13-6 in round 2.

Northampton beat Lyon 25-14 at home before winning in Italy 35-32 at Benetton thanks to a last minute penalty from Dan Biggar.

Leinster are four times winners of the competition, the last time two years ago before losing to Saracens in the final last year and went into this year second favourites to win it again. Their players form the core of the Irish National side, under coaching team Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster and their recent strength emerged from a rebuilding period in 2014-15 helped by the emergence of a lot of talent through the IRFU supported academy system. This saw players like Ryan, Larmour, Byrne and Ringrose begin to complement established player such as Sexton, Furlong, Henshaw and Kearney. This season they are top of the Pro 14 A division with six wins from six games.

Northampton were in the doldrums for several seasons but have been flying this year, joint top of the Premiership with three wins from four games scoring 15 tries, 4 more than any other side. Their coach Chris Boyd joined the Premiership after a three-year stint overseeing Ardie Savea, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara and co at the Hurricanes, he held assistant coaching roles with Wellington, the Sharks in South Africa and the Tonga national team at the 2011 Rugby World Cup. Then there were three years at the helm of New Zealand Under-20 between 2012 and 2015.

The approach Northampton adopt is very expansive, with a high ambition to play from all areas of the field. They don’t kick a lot, as is the norm in modern rugby and the intent to attack leads to high volumes of opportunities but also a lot of turnovers lost.

It may be a year early for Northampton in this competition especially coming up against an experienced hardened team like Leinster. Northampton’s weakness is that opponents target them with breakdown aggression and set-piece squeezing such as in their only loss so far to Bath, who took this approach and Leinster have the forwards and the tactical analysis, plus enormous European and International experience to do this

Leinster are 6 point favourites on the handicap and I expect them to slow this one down, grind it out, force Northampton to play from deep and profit from errors. The winning margin appeals as I expect Leinster to win narrowly

8 points Leinster to beat Northampton by 1-12 points at 15/8 with Betfair Sportsbook 9/5 PaddyPower, expect more firms up through to tomorrow


MVP.

One of the most exciting parts of this NFL season has been the progression of the former college Heisman trophy winning Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Lamar Jackson, still only 22 years old, to a position where he is the overwhelming favourite to win the NFL’s MVP award at the end of the season. As a corollary, as I write the Ravens have overtaken the Patriots as Super-bowl favourites.

Drafted last year right at the end of the first round, only the fifth quarterback to be taken, with doubts about his size and durability as well as ability as a passer. Some analysts projected him as a wide receiver in the NFL, one team asked him to work out at that position.

He was introduced into the line-up midway through last season within a game-plan that didn’t ask him to take risks passing and emphasised his brilliant running ability which led to six rushing touchdowns as the Ravens made it to the play-offs.

This season, helped by superb roster construction (notably the recruitment of running back Mark Ingram and the drafting of deep threat wide receiver Marquise Brown) and innovative game-planning (and a coaching team deeply versed in analytics) Jackson has taken huge steps forward. The Ravens have ten wins, including beating four front runners for the post season — Seattle, New England, the 49ers and Houston — by a combined 68 points. The Ravens have now won 8 consecutive games, tied for the longest winning streak in franchise history.  

Jackson leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 25 and has become the first player to register 3000 passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards across his first two seasons, as well as the first to produce 50 rushing yards and four passing touchdowns in back-to-back games.   He leads quarterbacks in rushing with 977 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He is expected to break Michael Vick's single-season quarterback rushing record next month. In addition he is a leader on and off the field and the team is set up for a great run for several years to come.


StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium

For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.

From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

The Road To Riches Weekend of 30th November- 1st December

Posted on 29 Nov 2019 08:20 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League Matches include Chelsea v West Ham

- Racing, over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and all weather racing at Wolverhampton

- NFL Week 13 of the 2019 NFL season

- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

- Golf, On the European Tour the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa and the Kong Kong Open

- Cricket, The second test between New Zealand and England in Hamilton next week


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)

By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link


 

Free tip

The General Election

Two weeks to go, and we (Neil Channing and I) have been pondering for a week or so writing about the Overall Majority market, and specifically the price at which “no overall majority” became attractive, and at which a big Tory majority was priced in.

As I write a Conservative majority is 1/3 No overall majority is out to 5/2, having been near evens when the campaign began. The latest tick out to 5/2 in the aftermath of the You Gov MRP poll out midweek, which attracted huge amounts of anticipation and attention and predicted a 68 seat Conservative majority and showed a 11 point lead with some very interesting constituency by constituency polling albeit in some constituencies on tiny sample sizes from within the whole 270,000 respondent survey.

A notable element of this report (actually out of date by the time it was published) was the potential results it showed across a range of Labour held Northern and Midlands constituencies which voted leave in 2016, the so called “red wall”. The swing from Labour to Conservative since 2017 appears to be higher in those particular constituencies that voted most strongly for Leave. Such a finding seems plausible since across the polls as a whole there is a ten-point swing from Labour to Conservative among individual voters who backed Leave in 2016, compared with just a one point swing among those who voted Remain. This has reported caused Corbyn (with a nuanced Brexit strategy, latterly speaking of being neutral going forward) to change campaigning tactics towards such areas, featuring Leave supporting Shadow Cabinet members.

However, we would caution against extrapolating too far from the MRP a fortnight out from the vote. Many of its projections of Tory gains from Labour are based on relatively small estimated majorities, I counted over 40 where the gap between the big two parties in the Conservatives favour was less than 5%. Whilst 11 points and 68 seats was their finding  a four-point drop in the Tory lead would have us in hung parliament territory, the composition of the current electoral map requires the Conservatives to lead by 7 points to get to the 323 seats required

In the last week MRP aside there has been a narrowing of the polls by a couple of points. Six companies put the Conservative vote down one point and Labour up three. Today a new poll had Tory +8, with a three point swing to Labour (-1 Con, +2 Lab).

So is a hung parliament still a possibility? Is 5/2, in betting terms, value?

Much like in 2017 many Labour policies are popular and poll well. What is missing this time round is a) that an unimaginative and conservative with a small “c” Tory manifesto isn’t going to scare an older voter base thinking about “Getting Brexit done” (which doesn’t happen if even a new parliamentary majority gets the deal through) and b) Corbyn hasn’t had a great personal campaign dogged for example by ongoing anti-semitism rows

This is a tough election to call by trying to look at the macro picture, with a Brexit overlay and there appear to be two types of swing voter at play here a) the previously Labour voting heartland Brexit voter and b) the centrist remainer whether former Conservatives or Blairites. At a micro level the leave vote is more united in one direction than the remain vote and whilst it is understandable on both sides that there is no tactical voting pact between the Lib Dems and Labour (the Lib Dems were in an austerity focussed coalition four years ago, Corbyn isn’t the ideal partner for a party with a central policy of revoke) we are left wondering if at a local level any of that will come into play.

For now, certain of us are left hoping for some “Portillo moments” in the constituencies of the likes of Raab, IDS and Redwood, without even considering Uxbridge, if only enough voters from the left lent their votes to the party best placed to topple the incumbent rather than expecting them.

One thing the MRP does indicate to potential Lib Dem strategic voters in three way marginals is that things aren't as clear as they appeared at the start so in the London marginals such as Kensington, Wimbledon and Cities of London/Westminster voters may now pick Labour whereas at the start of the campaign they were perhaps looking at impressive Euro results and much higher polling for the Lib Dems and thinking of going that way. We would think that the poor performance of Jo Swinson and the fall in her personal approval ratings means that the Lib Dem projected vote share will drop further leading to a drop in her seats due to tactical voters getting a clearer idea of which way they need to look.

There have been 3.2m new voter registrations (about 10% of the 2017 total vote) since the campaign began. 66% of those are from potential voters under the age of 35 and a majority would be expected to break Labour. When there was a surge in 2017, up to 40% of these new registrations turned out to be duplicates from people already on the register but in 2019 even if only 60% are new voters, that is a significant inroad to the nine million people previously not registered.

As ever, this sort of report is a hostage to the fortunes of the next fortnight, but expecting the polls to narrowly slightly further (Labour squeezing the smaller parties, we think) we are going to take the plunge at 5/2

20 points No overall Majority at 5/2 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill

 


Fair Play

UEFA Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations were created to stop football clubs spending more than they earn. FFP was agreed in 2009 and implementation began from the 2011–12 football season.

The outgoings for a club included transfers and income counted included Gate receipts, Sales of players and TV revenue. Money spent towards youth development, training facilities and infrastructure are not included. Penalties include withholding of prize money, transfer bans and disqualification from competitions. The reaction to FFP over the years has had widespread coverage and had very polarising views.

A major criticism of FFP is that the bigger clubs are able to solidify their positions and competition is discouraged. Bigger clubs which generate the largest amounts of revenue and profits are consequently able to spend a lot more money on transfers. The Premier League has seen dominance from three clubs in Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester United, more recently Man City and Liverpool have come to resemble a “Big Two” in results on the pitch.The lack of competition for Champions League places is evident as it has been occupied by mainly the old “Big 4” (Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool) and more recently Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City. The gap between the regular top 6 is likely to grow with clubs not able to spend the sums of money required to push on and close the gap. Apart from the freak year of Leicester City winning the league, the financial gap has been widening and it was only the windfall of a £100m+ revenue boost from the title followed by a single Champions League season that has seen good recruitment turn a subsequent Leicester squad into a top six contender this season.

There is a reason why the biggest three clubs in Europe (Manchester United, Real Madrid & Bayern Munich) were the first clubs to fully agree with FFP. The biggest clubs have the most power as they have a huge support base and their dominance will no longer by challenged by potential “newer” clubs following the blueprint of Paris Saint-Germain or Manchester City.

As Jose Mourinho explained, “what happened really with the Financial Fair Play is a big protection to the historical, old, big clubs, which have a financial structure, a commercial structure, everything in place based on historical success for years and years and years.”


StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium

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