The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd July

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Linfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor
• Cricket, the second Ashes Test continues at Lords
• Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
• Tennis Wimbledon begins on Monday
• Golf the John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the Made in Himmerland tournament Masters on the DP World Tour

Free Tip

Vitality T20 Blast Surrey v Somerset Friday 6.30pm

Two rounds of games left in the group stages. Somerset have already guaranteed a home Quarter-final, four points clear at the top of the South Group but still have motivation to win this, as in doing so would win them the group and give them the easiest Quarter-Final, theoretically, against the fourth place finisher in the North group

Surrey are second in the South Group, well placed for the Quarter Finals but yet to be guaranteed a place after failing to defend 252 against then winless Middlesex last week

When these two teams met at Taunton earlier in the competition Surrey defended 190 by 28 runs

The last time we looked at Surrey this column backed Will Jacks to be Surrey top scorer, and he was out for a duck. Since that game Jacks has top scored in both games, scoring 69 and 96. Overall with 468 runs in 12 games so far this season at a strike rate of 160 including 27 sixes, second only to opening partner Laurie Evans with 481 runs. Bet365 offer 6/4 Jacks over 1.5 sixes. If he makes it through the first few overs, he will smash this quote.

For Somerset leading run scorer is the one-day specialist, opener Will Smeed with 404 runs at a strike rate of 180. His last five scores in the competition are 78,66,36,8 and 94.

These are two outstanding young hitters, likely to be playing on a great surface in a high scoring game, opening the batting.

8 points Will Jacks Top Surrey run scorer at 13/5 with Bet365

8 points Will Smeed Top Somerset scorer at 3/1 with Bet365

10 points Jacks over 1.5 sixes 6/4 Bet365

(More firms to price the markets on Friday)

Devalued

There’s a reason two of the NFL’s three unsigned “franchise” players are running backs and the term “devalued” is routinely used when discussing the position. Teams argue they can get by with a plug-and-play mentality or a committee approach. Consequently, compensation for running backs under the franchise tag trails every other position group except kickers and punters. On offense alone, their $10.1m tender this season is nearly $1.3m less than tight ends, $8.15m less than offensive linemen, $9.7m behind wide receivers and $22.3m behind quarterbacks.

Take Josh Jacobs, for instance. He unquestionably was the best offensive player on the Raiders last season, finishing the year as the league leader in rushing yards and scrimmage yards.  He accounted for 49.9% of the team’s touches from scrimmage, which was the highest percentage in the league and nearly 37 points above the next Raider. His 93 rushing first downs were 24 more than anyone else in the league and equalled or surpassed the total of eight teams.

Yet the Raiders are asking him to play 2023 on a franchise tag that trails six teammates in terms of salary cap allocation. Jacobs has yet to sign the tender or participate in offseason activities, and if the sides fail to reach an agreement on a multiyear deal before July 17, he will be required by league rules to play under the tag this season.

Running backs have been struggling to be compensated at high rates since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. In the lead-up to those negotiations, the NFL made it clear to the players association that it wanted a rookie wage scale as part of any agreement. The owners were tired of paying massive moneys to unproven players. That change has been as devastating to running backs drafted in the first round.

As part of the agreement, teams were allowed to contractually tie up first-round picks for up to eight years; the first four on fully guaranteed deals, followed by a fifth-year team option, then three consecutive years of franchise tags. With the average career span being 3.2 years, according to NFLPA data, that means first-rounders might go their entire career without receiving a multiyear extension or reaching the open market in free agency. It’s critical for backs to get as much as they can as quickly as they can because they tend to have an abbreviated shelf life. Of the 173 players who took snaps at the position last season, only 15 were 30 or older. Good running backs tend to get used heavily when young and then wear down. Ezekiel Elliott is a good example of this, released in the summer and still without another club.

Four years ago, an effort was made to carve NFL running backs out of the NFL Players Association, in order to create their own union and have their own bargaining unit, and their own bargaining power. Maybe their own salary cap.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat AT Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
• Cricket, the second Ashes Test next week at Lords
• Rugby Union, the Super Rugby Final
• Tennis ATP Mallorca, Rothesay International and Wimbledon Qualification
• Golf the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the USPGA and the British Masters on the DP World Tour

Free Tip

Super Rugby Final Chiefs v Crusaders Saturday 8.05am

The four month Super Rugby Pacific season concludes with the Chiefs and Crusaders meeting in the final this weekend in Hamilton.

The Crusaders finished second in the regular season table and thrashed the Blues, third place finishers, in the semi-final 52-15 whilst the table topping Chiefs struggled past the Reds in their quarter-final and then only pulled away late I  the game to beat the Brumbies 19-6 in their semi-final.

The Chiefs earned the right to host the final after losing only one match in the regular season, a run stitched together with help from their consistently high-performing attacking talents along with a pack led by Sam Cane and Brodie Retallick. However, they have struggled over the past fortnight to break teams open and given the way the Crusaders dominated the Blues defensively and at the breakdown, they will have a big challenge against the defending champions on Saturday night.

In moving their home playoff record to 29-0, the Crusaders confirmed their pedigree in favourable conditions at this time of year. And last year they proved again that they can do it away from home when beating the Blues in the grand final at Eden Park.

One area the Crusaders might have an advantage in is preparation and coaching. The way the Crusaders exposed the Blues’ midfield of Bryce Heem and Rieko Ioane on Friday night would have been largely down to assistant coach Scott Hansen’s analysis and strategy. Hansen, joining next All Blacks coach Scott Robertson (this his last game coaching the Crusaders) and former Blues coach Leon MacDonald at the All Blacks, is known as one of the sharpest thinkers in the New Zealand game and will present a plan designed to exploit the Chiefs’ defensive idiosyncrasies.

Outright prices are the Chiefs 5/6, Crusaders 11/10 and +1 on the handicap. I like the Crusaders outright and retain their title.

12 points Crusaders to win the Super Rugby final at 6/5 Coral and 11/10 generally

No Easy Answer

The selection dilemmas created by having the choice between a great wicket-keeper and a wicket-keeper batsman in the side has cropped up through generations for English cricket, in the Alec Stewart/Jack Russell debates of 30 years ago and it was thrown into sharp relief during the first Ashes test this time round.

Jonny Bairstow’s 78 in 78 balls in England’s first innings was crucial to getting England up towards 400 on day one and laying the foundation for Root’s century at the other end. It was an innings in style that Ben Foakes, a technically correct player and an accumulator of runs would be unlikely to play.

On days 2 and 3 though we saw the downsides of not selecting the top wicket-keeper, a position so influential in English test matches with Bairstow missing three chances, two caught behind and a stumping from Green, Carey and Khawaja that you would expect a specialist keeper to take. Add in Stuart Broad’s wicket from a no-ball and the four let offs led to Australia scoring another 108 runs and made the difference between England securing a comfortable first innings lead and only a marginal one and ultimately between losing the game and at least drawing it. It could also be argued that it indirectly caused Moeen’s finger injury as he, fresh off not bowling a long spell in first class cricket for nine months, ended up bowling 33 overs.

There is no perfect solution for England though. You either accept the missed chances or forgo some batting at a tempo consistent with the approach the team is trying to play with.

Of course there was never any doubt that Bairstow would be selected again after missing the winter through injury. He averages 37 as a batsman in Tests but over 50 batting at 5 under McCullum and Stokes. Batting him at 7 isn’t perfect but in the meantime since his injury Harry Brook has emerged and cemented his place at 5 in the line-up. Ben Foakes meanwhile averages 32 in 20 Tests.

Might though there be a time later in this Ashes series where England decide they have to pick both thereby getting your best XI on the field. Doing so would seem optimal but causes difficulties elsewhere. Who in the top six is dropped to make way for both? Pope, Root, Brook and Stokes are undroppable, which leads to the debate over the openers most notably Zak Crawley.

Crawley’s attacking technique is better than his defensive technique (He’s been dismissed 29 times in tests playing a defensive shot) but perhaps if the plan as stated is to produce fast but true pitches all series (to aid England’s rate of scoring but nullify the skills of the Australian quicks) putting a square peg in a round hole and opening with say Brook is a possibility, which you wouldn’t do on a green wicket (but then again you wouldn’t want Crawley opening on that either) to help you get Foakes in and take 20 wickets on the said flat pitches. We’ll see.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat AT Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
• Football, European Championship Qualifying Matches
• Cricket, the first Ashes Test continues at Edgbaston
• Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix
• Tennis ATP Queens and Halle
• Golf the Travelers Championship on the USPGA and the BMW International on the DP World Tour

Royal Ascot

Neil Channing’s package for Royal Ascot (20^th-24^th June) is now available for subscription here, cost is £199

Free Tip

Vitality T20 Blast Surrey v Hampshire 2.30pm Sunday

Heading into the second half of the Group stages of the T20 Blast Surrey are second in the South Group with six wins from 8 games and Hampshire third with five wins. With four teams from each group making it through to the Knockout stages this is an important game, with the top two finishers in each group guaranteed a home Quarter Final.

Surrey have played four of their six games so far away, with the first stages of the competition coinciding with the World Test Championship final at the Oval. In one of those away games they beat Hampshire at Southampton by six wickets.

Surrey are an extremely strong T20 outfit, albeit one that has flattered to deceive at the business end in the competition.

The batting line up tees off right from the start knowing that the line-up is so deep whilst the plethora of international and franchise all-rounders means the side routinely has seven bowlers that can be called upon depending on conditions and game circumstance

This is being written before Friday night’s games, Surrey away at Somerset and Hampshire away at Sussex . At the time of writing Surrey’s batting in this competition has been dominated by the top three in the order

Laurie Evans 327 at a strike rate of 166 with a hundred and two fifties (including a 93)

Will Jacks 243 runs at a strike rate of 151 with a 50 (83* v Hampshire)

Sam Curran 237 runs at a strike rate of 155 and three 50s.

Any are candidates in the top batsman market here, with one or more “coming off” most games and I have a marginal preference for Will Jacks

The bowling line-up (Curran and Jordan at the death, Sean Abbott up front) has the advantage of being to call on the brilliant Sunil Narine, the veteran West Indian/franchise spinner at the end of the powerplay overs. Irrespective of surface he has caused all opponents problems. He has a team leading 14 wickets in the 8 games and an economy rate of a competition leading 6.3, just over a run a ball. He should give us a good run for our money in the top Surrey bowler market.

These prices are taken from those for Friday night's game, with prices live for Sunday from Saturday (will update then)

8 points Will Jacks top Surrey batsman at 12/5 with Bet365, more firms to follow over the weekend

8 points Sunil Narine top Surrey bowler at 4/1 with Bet365, more firms to follow over the weekend

Hitting the rocks

Last week brought London Irish were suspended from the Premiership for the 2023/24 season due to financial issues, a third club from 13 professional teams to be so in eight months.

After a season in which two Premiership clubs in Worcester Warriors and Wasps experienced administration, enforced relegation and continue to face the threat of extinction London Irish, who finished fifth in the table just missing out on the play-offs, have now followed suit while every remaining club holds high levels of debt.

London Irish could not provide evidence they would be able to adequately fund themselves through the 2023/24 campaign.

Seeking assurances the RFU sought one of the following resolutions a) A takeover of the club has been completed and approved by the RFU, with the buyers undertaking to provide all required working capital to meet the club's obligations as they fall due for at least season 2023/24; or b) The club evidences that it will continue to be funded to operate throughout the 2023/24 season.

Irish have £30m of debt and three winding-up petitions from HMRC due to unpaid taxes of £1m. With a takeover falling through the RFU suspended them from all leagues after failing to meet their commitments to pay staff and players in full for May.

After losing three professional clubs in just eight months, the Premiership is expected to adopt a 10-team league from next season, but it is clear the financial model for clubs within the competition is not fit for purpose, and this may not be the end of the problems. Leicester for example, needed a £13m cash injection last season to avoid administration.

Like most sports, the Covid-19 pandemic hit rugby hard, with most unions and domestic leagues still in recovery mode from the revenue lost.

The Premiership has found itself in a circumstance where its clubs are spending more and more in a competitive global environment for talent, particularly from France where the salary cap is bigger.

Clubs have seen wage bills of £9m per year, but an average of just £4m brought in per club from match ticket sales. Premiership clubs throughout the country are debt heavy without a host of commercial avenues apart from match-days.

In response to the pandemic and with sustainability in mind, the Premiership reduced its yearly player salary cap per club to £5m from £6.4m for the start of the 2021/22 season.

The cap, in original plans, is set to return to £6.4m in 2024, though clubs are thought to be in discussions to keep it at £5m.

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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Catterick, Chepstow, Haydock and Lingfield and over the jumps at Bangor
• Football, the Champions League final in Istanbul, Manchester City v Inter Milan
• Cricket, the World Test Championship final at the Oval continues, Australia v India and next week the start of the Ashes.
• Tennis ATP Libema, Stuttgart and Nottingham Opens
• Golf the US Open next week in Los Angeles

Royal Ascot

Neil Channing’s package for Royal Ascot (20^th-24^th June) is now available for subscription here, cost is £199

Free Tip

The Ashes

Outright odds for the five Test Ashes series that begins at Edgbaston next week are England 5/4 Australia 13/10 and the draw 6/1. Recent England form, they’ve won 10 out of 12 Tests under Stokes in their “Bazball” approach and recent Ashes form, England have won four of the last five home Ashes series and drew the last one at home, would support England’s favouritism. However England lack the depth that Australia have, an issue that could be accentuated by playing the whole series in a six week span ahead of August being given over to the Hundred. In any case, Bazball now meets its biggest Test as the top six faces combinations of Cummins/Starc/Hazlewood/Boland and Neser.

In the very short-term England have injury issues. Leach is out, Anderson has been out, Stokes hasn’t bowled since before Christmas, Archer is absent and we should expect more rotation in the England bowling line up anyway, it being a big ask to expect Anderson at 42 and Broad at 36 to play five tests on the spin and combinations of Potts/Tongue/Woakes and others are going to be required over the next six weeks. Australia have an injury issue of their own with Hazlewood missing the World Test Championship this weekend.

I am tempted to think the outright series prices are the wrong way round, and Australia for the series at 13/10 is a much more attractive price than England’s. Weather allowing I don’t see any draws, the pace of scoring these days means many games aren’t going to go five days. If I was after a correct score, Australia 3-2 at 6/1 (Bet365) would be the play.

Aside from dealing with Australia’s bowling attack England’s key priority is going to be restricting the two major Australian batsmen Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne. Their test match statistics tell the story.

Smith averages 60 in 169 Test innings, Labuschagne who first came into the side as Smith’s concussion replacement in the English Ashes series four years ago, averages 58 in 64 Test innings. In the Top Australian series batsman market the two are unsurprisingly favourites, with Travis Head the most attractive price of the next three realistic winners in the market but a point and a half lower than last week since his big hundred this week at the Oval:

Smith 6/4

Labuschagne 5/2

Head 13/2

Khawaja 7/1

Warner 8/1

Bar 22/1

Since the last English Ashes series Labuschagne has spent four years at Glamorgan dealing with the Dukes bowl and pulverising county attacks, is a fixture at 3 in the Australian line-up and is set for s huge series.

10 points Marnus Labuschagne top Australian series scorer at 5/2 William Hill, StarSports 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 

What-Ifs?

Some of the key questions facing England ahead of the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston next week

Who will replace Jack Leach?

Leach is an important bowler for England, he’s bowled 200 more overs than any other bowler under Ben Stokes’ captaincy and holds up and end allowing the fast bowlers to be rotated at the other, keeping them fresh. Especially if Stokes cannot bowl, see below, this is a big loss. During the winter both Rehan Ahmed and Will Jacks played, but Ahmed is inexperienced and Jacks more of a part-time spinner. Moeen Ali has been persuaded out of Test retirement and into the squad for the first two tests as a stock bowler and also he lengthens the batting. It remains to be seen whether the final side will contain the extra seamer with Stokes and Root in support or contain Moeen.

Will James Anderson be fit and for how long?

Anderson suffered a groin strain playing for Lancashire a few weeks ago and was kept out of the Ireland test as a precaution. All the signs are that he will play the first Test but at 42 years old the nature of this series, five Tests in six weeks, does him no favours. It remains a long shot that he would play all five Tests.

Is Ben Stokes going to be able to bowl?

Stokes struggled badly with the chronic injury to his left knee during the winter and then bowled one over for Chennai Super Kings in the IPL. He didn’t bowl in the Ireland Test and visibly winced a couple of times in the field. He expects to be ready to bowl in the Ashes, important as in doing so it balances the side from the all-rounder position but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be hobbling around and putting himself through 12 overs a day during the series.

Should Zak Crawley have been dropped?

Crawley averages 27.6 in Tests and hasn’t convinced yet in the way that his opening partner Duckett has. Perhaps he has survived for now due the paucity of other opening options capable of playing in a Bazball style, which doesn’t suit Burns, Sibley and Hameed to name a few and the reluctance to make room for a Foakes, say by promoting Stokes to opener.

Was making Jonny Bairstow wicketkeeper the right call?

Bairstow’s four centuries and average of 75.6 last summer playing as a specialist batsman meant his return to the side was assured once he had recovered from injury. In his absence the huge success of Harry Brook at 5 created a logjam of middle order batsmen that Bairstow has been introduced back as batsman-wicketkeeper at the expense of the unfortunate Ben Stokes.

That probably costs the side in the field at some point in the Ashes series but could all being well mean a couple of hundred runs extra from the number seven position.

Do England still want flat pitches despite losing express pace options in Jofra Archer and Olly Stone?

Stokes admitted last month he wants pitches to suit his fast bowlers and quick pitches would suit his fast-scoring batting line-up. Have the injuries to Archer, Stone and the fragility of Wood all three the main “enforcers” changed that?

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Epsom, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Hexham, Stratford and Worcester
• Football, the FA Cup Final Manchester City v Manchester United
• Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix
• Cricket, the England-Ireland Test continues at Lords and next week the World Test Championship final at the Oval, Australia v India
• Tennis the French Open concludes
• Golf the Canadian Open on the USPGA and the Scandinavian Mixed Open on the DP World Tour

Royal Ascot

Neil Channing’s package for Royal Ascot (20^th-24^th June) is now available for subscription here, cost is £199

Free Tip

The Derby by Neil Channing, Saturday at 1.30pm

Sleepwalking

It all started with the King Power Helicopter crash in 2018, with Leicester City robbed of a ruthless and decisive chairman (for example prepared to sack Ranieri the season after winning the title) replaced by his son, less effective, less dynamic and less involved than his father. That the crash was followed by the COVID pandemic that so affected the finances of the parent company duty free business and left the new young Chairman observing events remotely for a year was unfortunate, but the tale of Leicester City’s relegation is one of complacency, mismanagement and failing to spot the signs of impending trouble.

In the 9 years the club was in the Premier League it, famously, won the League, finished 5^th twice subsequently, the FA Cup, the Community Shield and reached the Champions League Quarter Finals.

Problems began in the Summer of 2021 when, in the wake of a £60m summer spend the club began hitting FFP ceilings. That £60m was by and large spent poorly, in a couple of cases on panicky defensive buys such as Vestergaard and Bertrand in the midst of an injury crisis. Signing ageing players on expensive contracts, plus others like Soumare and Daka who failed to settle, reduced the flexibility to keep building the squad as other teams around them strengthened.  The result was the transfer window of last summer which saw no incoming players and the important loss of Schmeichel, still in contract, who was never replaced. No Schmeichel and the loss of Jonny Evans for virtually the whole season since October, had a huge effect on a defence that was young, unsettled and no longer well protected, as the form of defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi was a shadow of that of two years previously.

Fofana was sold for a price it was impossible to turn down, and ultimately some of those proceeds were invested in three defenders in the January transfer window, Faes, Souttar and Kristensen. Two of these players were out of the side once Dean Smith arrived and Faes was partnered with a revolving door of other centre backs in the last third of the season.

Poor recruitment led to a subsequent tightening of the purse strings and this had been on the cards since the 2020-21 accounts where the wage to turnover burden was 85% when UEFA’s cost control regulations were being set at 80% and then 70% going forward.

Aware of all this the ambitious Brendan Rodgers visibly became half-hearted, publically criticising players at times, pointing to an unbalanced squad at others and telling press conferences that the club had reached its ceiling. Fans agitated for his removal, but the club was drifting off-the-field with no sign of the decisiveness required to make such a decision and such was the size of potential pay-off that it was difficult to afford this under FFP anyway.

The board meanwhile was dropping the ball on expiring contracts, notably Youri Tielemans who was much in demand 18 months ago, wanted to leave but wasn’t sold and now leaves this summer out of contract after a series of half-hearted performances during the relegation fight.

Eventually a change of manager came when there was really no other option, but with only 9 games to go. Turned down by Benitez and, in a sign of how far things had fallen, Jesse Marsch, in came Dean Smith suggesting that 11 points were needed. He was right, but the side only achieved nine points under him.

Through the season the side only won 11 points from matches against sides that also finished in the bottom six, the worst of any of those teams. No points were won over the season against Bournemouth and Southampton. The defensive stats were horrific. The club broke the record for the most goals conceded from the first seven games of a Premier League season and had four separate four game losing streaks. Nine home games were lost and there was one clean sheet in the last 22 league games, and that one was when it was too late, at Newcastle in the penultimate game of the season.

Putting the ball in the back of the net has not been such a problem, with 51 goals scored a total bettered by only 8 other teams this season. Only two other clubs have been relegated from the Premier League having scored 50+ goals. The fact that they have a decent attacking record yet were relegated emphasises just how defensively inept Leicester have been.

Ultimately Leicester became the first team in the Premier League era to be relegated after five straight top half finishes, and a cautionary tale of the risks of standing still and/or poor recruitment such is the inequity of the FFP system for smaller clubs.

The club enters the Championship with a huge rebuilding job on its hands. The Wage bill, bloated by nine years in the top league and trying to compete in the top half, is £182m the highest of any club relegated to the Championship. Parachute payments of £40m aren’t going to touch the sides of that. The club has taken out loans secured against Premier League TV revenue through to 2026. Sales of top players are inevitable, as are significant cutbacks off-the-field and a delayed stadium expansion and only some player contracts contain relegation clauses. Jamie Vardy owes the club nothing, but the sight of him charging around Home Park, Plymouth and the New York Stadium, Rotherham next season at 36 years old on £140,000 a week with his contract not expiring for another year will be an indication of the difficulties at hand beyond the obvious sales of Maddison and Barnes and the free transfers of Tielemans and the 9 other out of contract players.

Clarity of though, a plan and a direction with the right people to implement it, both in terms of football management and cutting the cloth of the business to new circumstances, is urgently needed but such is the scale of the shock of this relegation (not necessarily to the fans, but apparently to the board who have sleep-walked into it, happy to show pre-match montages of former glories on video screens before games but at no point make many sensible decisions in the last two years) that that might be overly optimistic.

I’d consider “doing a Burnley” and bouncing straight back unlikely such is the scale of cutbacks that need to take place not even considering whispers that the Thai Chairman would sell if an opportunity presented itself.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase