Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 16-17th February

Posted on 14 Feb 2019 09:14 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, the FA Cup Fifth Round

- Rugby Union, the start of the 2019 Super Rugby Season   

- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. All weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton Park

- Cricket, the Big Bash final on Sunday. Next week the five match West Indies v England ODI Series

- Golf, the World Super Six in Perth, Australia and on the USPGA the Genesis Open at the Riviera GC

- Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, Rotterdam and New York


Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)

Now underway with seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here


Free tip

The 2018-19 Big Bash Final

Melbourne Renegades v Melbourne Stars (Sunday 3.45am GMT)

The Stars upset the odds in the first semi final, qualifying 4th in the league table with a 7-7 record and knocking off the long-time league leaders Hobart in Tasmania to reach the final.

The win was set-up by a sensational spell from unheralded Stars quick Dan Worrall who mixed seam, swing and slower balls to good effect. He took 4 for 23 including the prize scalp of Matthew Wade in the second over of the innings.

The Hurricanes lost three wickets in the Powerplay for only the second time in the tournament and again lost the game. Wade and D'Arcy Short contributed just 37 between them after scoring 810 as a pair throughout the tournament. 

Stars leading players are Marcus Stoinis with 480 runs and new captain Glenn Maxwell down the order with 330. No bowler has taken more than 15 wickets in  their15 games with DJ Bravo ahead of all-rounder Stoinis who has underlined his value with 14 wickets.

The Renegades qualified for the semi-finals with a second place finish in the league table.

In their home semi-final in Melbourne the top wicket-taker in the tournament Kane Richardson who had taken 24 wickets before the semi, went round the park and the Sixers scored a competitive 180-3 which the Renegades reached with two balls to spare with Finch anchoring the innings and the all-rounder Dan Christian rescuing the side from 133-6 with three sixes in his 31* batting seven.

For the final, a Melbourne Derby with the host Renegades my focus is on the Renegades top run scorer market

In Aaron Finch’s 7 innings in the competition (playing for the national side for the first half of the BBL season) he has scored 207 runs. Pro-rata, assuming similar performance over a full competition, he’d be comfortably the top Renegades run scorer in the tournament in a line up with only one other player over 300 runs in the tournament.

Over the course of 50 T20 Internationals and 250 games in total Finch has scored at a strike rate between 140-160 but in this competition his strike rate is 116 as he has taken on the role of providing the platform the side can base their innings around. An experienced big game player on a mixed-use small ground (the Marvel stadium hosts football and the AFL primarily) he has 70 scores of 50+ in his career

Here Finch is available at over 2/1 (21/10) with Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower and 2/1 elsewhere

10 points Aaron Finch Top Melbourne Renegades Batsman 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower and 2/1 elsewhere


Overtime

The NFL’s overtime system has been questioned since it was implemented in 1974, but after the play-offs this season it is facing the sharpest scrutiny since 2010, when the overtime rules were retooled.

Both the NFC and AFC championship games went into overtime, and in the latter matchup the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots combined for 48 second-half points, 31 of which came from Kansas City to tie the game at the end of regulation. The Chiefs did not get the ball again.

The Patriots correctly called heads on the overtime coin toss, elected to receive, and drove down the field to score a touchdown and win the game in sudden death. The loss sparked a few questions: How much influence should a coin toss have on the outcome of a game? Should overtime conclude after only one offense has stepped onto the field?

The original policy was amended because the team that won the coin flip had a disproportionate advantage. From 1994 (when the kickoff was moved back 5 yards) to 2010, the team that won the coin toss won nearly 60% of overtime games. Since the sudden-death rule was tweaked to exclude first-possession field goals in 2012, the disparity isn’t nearly as dramatic (52.7%) though in 5 of 8 post season matches that have gone to overtime since then under new rules, only one side has had the ball.

The NFL Competition committee meets each off-season and one thing likely to crop up this year is a variety of proposals to change and in some cases eliminate the impact of the coin toss.

One of these is likely to be a version of the rules that apply in college football where the team that wins the toss chooses whether to play on offense first or second and get the ball on opponents 25 yard line.

Nate Silver has suggested this system but modified so that offensive touchdowns only count in overtime, a system that would have got both Brady and Mahomes a chance to have the ball in the AFC Championship game.

Still though, in the college game there are inequities. The team that goes second has a massive advantage, knowing how many points it needs to tie or win the game. A ten year study found that teams that went second won 54.9% of the time. Another study found that teams that start on defense had a 52.1% win probability, smaller than the NFL’s but still significant. Allowing both teams to touch the ball lends plausible fairness to the game, but it doesn’t make it even.

There is no perfect system, and perhaps it is not the priority for the competition committee (still reflecting on chances to the catch and the tackle rules that proved so controversial this year) to change the current NFL system anyway in response to a high profile event

 


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

The Road to Riches Week of 9th-10th February

Posted on 7 Feb 2019 09:14 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea

- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Six Nations       

- Cricket, the third test between the West Indies and England in St Lucia continues.

- Golf, the Vic Open in Australia and on the USPGA the AT+T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

- Tennis, ATP Opens in  Cordoba, Sofia and Montpellier as the clay season starts


Premier League Darts (Thursday 7th Feb-Thursday May 23rd)

Now underway with seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here

 


Free tip

Big Bash League Sydney Thunder v Hobart Hurricanes Saturday 7.14am GMT Canberra

The Thunder go into their last group game 5th of 8 with 5 wins from 12 games yet win here and they stand a chance of making the semi-finals next week despite losing the Sydney derby last time out. Hobart have been top of the league table throughout and have only lost three of 13 games on their way to the top seeding.

Hobart are a well rounded T20 side, and one of their major strengths has been top order batting where Short (595 runs in 13 innings including 6 fifties) and Wade (545 runs including 6 fifties) are comfortably the top run scorers in the competition (next best Ferguson of the Sydney Thunder with 395). It helps that the Hobart wicket is one of the most true in a competition of generally slow stodgy tracks.

This match is played in Canberra, which bodes well for a high scoring match too compared to some of the over-used Sydney strips at the back end of the Australian season. In the recent test match at the ground there were four hundreds and Australia compiled over 540 first up.

D’Arcy Short should be the stand out performer here. Last season Short scored a total of 578 runs, including five half-centuries and a century, the most runs by any player in the competition history and is about to beat that. He is the percentage play to be top run scorer in the Hobart innings here. One of the opening two Hobart batsman has been top scorer in 10 of the 13 Hobart innings this season.  

10 Points D’Arcy Short top Hobart Hurricanes Run Scorer at 9/4 with Bet365 and SkyBet, 2/1 generally


Around the corner

The IPL returns for it’s a twelfth season at the end of March with the tournament now widely considered the most glamorous and definitely the most rewarding of all the T20 leagues.

In addition to the financial benefits the IPL has brought Indian cricket, the league has had a huge positive effect on playing standards. Since the advent of the IPL, Indian national teams have been more confident and aggressive in their approach to the game, and nowhere does this better show up than in their fielding.

The overseas influence on Indian cricket through the IPL has resulted in a more combative national team which recently won Test and ODI series in Australia and looks well placed for an attack on the World Cup in England this summer

Last season’s IPL was notable as local players often overshadowed the overseas ones. There were, in fact, two games when teams played just three foreign players in the XI out of choice.

Indian cricket is now at a point where there is serious competition for places in all the national teams. India are now the envy of the cricket world when it comes to producing skilful young batsmen. On the bowling front their fast bowling attack is now right up there and that bodes well for performing away from home going forward.

While India are riding high on the back of IPL riches and success, England are trying to forge a different path. The next addition to an England summer schedule that is already haphazard is the 100 ball competition that has the backing of few outside the ECB.

The overall level of talent at the top end of the English game is high particularly in all rounders and bowlers but while there appears to be great uncertainty among players surrounding the new competition, there can be no doubt that the scattergun approach to England's domestic cricket schedule is having an unsettling effect on the country's batting prospects with the opening batting position still a major concern.

There's no doubt India can be thankful for the high-profile IPL and the positive influence it has had on the national team. This extremely successful venture could pay even bigger dividends in the UK this summer.

 


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd February

Posted on 31 Jan 2019 09:02 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Arsenal

- NFL, the Superbowl

- Rugby Union, the first weekend of the Six Nations  

- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby. All weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield.

- Cricket, the second test between the West Indies and England in Antigua continues.

- Golf, the Saudi Open and on the USPGA the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale

- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Qualifiers


Superbowl LIII This Sunday by Neil Channing

The NFL Superbowl Package available now at £25 includes all the prop bets. If you signed up for the Playoffs you will automatically have access to this.

Sign up here


The Six Nations starts tonight!

To get all the Six Nations analysis, write ups and details of our bets it's £50 sign up here 


Premier League Darts (Thursday 7th Feb-Thursday May 23rd)

Starting next week, Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here


Free tip

Saturday 2nd February Big Bash Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder (Saturday 8am GMT)

The Sixers, led by the bowling attack of Abbott, Curran and O'Keefe with over 45 wickets between them in the competition this season have seven wins out of 12 and are in second place in the table and the most improved team in the competition this year headed into the last week of the group stages.. Their now vaunted bowling attack dismissed the Strikers for only 124-8 in the in last game.

For their four main bowlers the results this season, and 12 games in we are getting towards as meaningful a sample size as you can get for a single T20 tournament (this is a long tournaments, its been going two months and is still a fortnight away from finishing!) have been as follows

For the wicket taking fast-medium all rounder Abbott

43.1 overs bowled-350 runs conceded-18 wickets taken at a strike rate of 14.3

For Surrey’s Tom Curran effective death bowler full of variations 43.5-326-16 wickets SR 16.4

For the Slow left arm veteran spinner O’Keefe 45-343-17 wickets SR 15.8

Complemented by new ball bowler Dwarshuis 44.4 302-12 wickets SR 22.3

We can see this attack has depth but that Abbott has taken the most wickets at the lowest strike rate and should be outright favourite in the Sixers Top bowler market yet he is not, and therein lies the opportunity

10 points Sean Abbott Top Sydney Sixers bowler 3/1 William Hill and Bet365


From Zero to Hero?

The NFL off-season, which begins on Monday, is long which gives plenty of opportunity to assess which teams might rebound in the next regular season one of the beauties of the NFL being that the salary cap and free agency combine with the draft to make it possible to turn franchises round quickly, often accompanied by coaching changes. The Patriots buck the trend in the NFL, thanks to all time great coaching and quarterback play. For most other franchises, they deal in short windows to win

Two years ago the Eagles and Jaguars went from bottom of their division the year before to first. In the year just finishing, the Texans did the same and it is now 15 consecutive years that a team has achieved this. Of course, the odds are against most last-place teams, at least based on the past five seasons: 19 of the 40 last-place teams went on to finish in last place again, while just six managed to claim a division title but the betting opportunities are there if the right teams are identified as the turn-around stories are rarely factored into prices in advance.

So taking the 4th placed divisional finishers in alphabetical order

Arizona Cardinals (NFC West)

  • One of the toughest divisions, have to overcome the Rams, Seahawks and the 49ers (with Garoppolo returning at QB)
  • About to have their third head coach in three seasons
  • Have the number one draft pick
  • Potentially have a franchise quarterback from last year’s draft
  • Should use star RB David Johnson better
  • Have to significantly improve the offensive line to become competitive

Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North)

  • A coaching change, but that new coach faces a tough task to overcome the franchise culture that underinvests in scouting and rarely spends in free agency
  • Draft focus might be on quarterback but the defense needs significant work in the back seven, they were one of the weakest defensive teams
  • There is offensive talent with running back Joe Mixon and at receiver A J Green
  • The division might be winnable, the Steelers in transition for example but Cleveland are ahead in their race to competititveness

Detroit Lions (NFC North)

  • Only won one game against a team with a winning record in 2018
  • The offense needs fixing, Stafford threw for less than 200 yards per game last year, and a new offensive co-ordinator has been appointed
  • The defense ranked 10th in 2018
  • Have to beat a resurgent Bears team to win this division

Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South)

  • Get a quarterback!
  • Defense ranked fifth in the league last year
  • Offense ranked 31st and whether via the draft or free agency (Nick Foles) the new offensive co-ordinator needs players who can help to put up some points to give that defense a chance, and that process wilinvolve straightening out Fournette too
  • The Colts had a massive turn-around in 2018 with good drafting and the return of Andrew Luck but this is a winnable division again if the Jags can become more balanced.

New York Giants (NFC East)

  • Lost 8 games in 2018 by seven or less points
  • Very even division, 8-9 wins usually has a team well in contention
  • In Beckham, Barkley and Engram there is skill position talent to spare
  • The key will be upgrading the pass rush after finishing tied for 30th in sacks and fortifying the offensive line further which might take two drafts
  • A decision needs to be made on Eli Manning. The franchise passed on a quarterback in last year’s draft and are indicating they will stick with him again for this year. 

New York Jets (AFC East)

  • Can they overtake the Patriots in one year from where they are now?
  • On the upside they might have a legitimate franchise quarterback in Darnold
  • On the downside the roster needs a lot of work, Darnold neads weapons and a better offensive line
  • The Jets are projected to have plenty of salary-cap space to use in free agency.
  • If it goes right, they are a potential wild card candidatefor next year

Oakland Raiders (AFC West)

  • Three first draft round draft picks will represent the start of the rebuilding process in the last year before the move to Vegas and both sides of the ball require strengthening
  • Derek Carr finished last season with career highs in passing yards (4,049) and completion percentage (68.9) and with more talent around him the team should improve, but unlikely to be a one year process, or not enough to threaten the Chiefs and Chargers in another tough division.
  • The un-fireable Gruden hasn’t always drafted well but the recruitment of Mayock as GM gives him a strong talent evaluator to help

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South)

  • The offense is high powered and especially with more consistency from Winston (not a given) under new head coach Arians should be capable of putting up lots of points again
  • The Bucs were -18 on turnovers in 2018 (Winston, and the defense not creating any) get that back to league averages and the win loss record improves
  • The defense needs an influx of talent,particularly at pass rusher and fortunately that coincides with the depth and strength of the upcoming draft.
  • Overcoming the Saints isn’t going to be easy but this franchise has some “easy wins” to make.

 


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-27th January

Posted on 24 Jan 2019 10:01 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, the FA Cup Fourth Round.

- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. All weather racing at Lingfield and Chelmsford City.

- Cricket, the second test between the West Indies and England in Antigua next week and the 2018-19 Big Bash continues.

- Golf, the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines

- Tennis, The final weekend of the Australian Open


Superbowl LIII Sunday 3rd February by Neil Channing

The NFL Superbowl Package available now at £25 here includes all the prop bets. If you signed up for the Playoffs you will automatically have access to this.


 

The Six Nations (1st Feb – 16th March)

I am pleased to be covering the Six Nations with a full package this year.

To get all the Six Nations analysis, write ups and details of our bets it's £50 sign up here 


Premier League Darts (Thursday 7th Feb-Thursday May 23rd)

Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here


Free tip

FA Cup Fourth Round Bristol City v Bolton Wanderers (Friday 7.45pm)

These two championship teams met in Bristol last week with the home team winning 2-1. Bristol City are seventh in the Championship and 1/2 to win again against opponents second bottom of the Championship who have severe off the field troubles including a players' strike in pre-season, a winding-up order narrowly avoided in September, rows over collapsed transfers and difficulties in paying the first-team squad their salaries in November and December. Monday’s home game with West Brom saw crowd protests. The team lost 2-0 against visitors of whom it was described “they were never out of second gear”.

Bolton have only won 5 of 28 league games this season and have only one win from their last 18 league games. but the statistic that interests me is that the side have only scored 18 goals in those 28 matches failing to score in 15 of them.

Bristol C are a competent Championship side unbeaten since 24th November and going into the match off four successive wins. Take Bristol C to win to Nil

10 Points Bristol C to win to Nil at 13/10 Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes


E’s are good?

The fifth season of Formula E began in December with the third race of a thirteen race season this weekend in Santiago. Formula E is an attempt to recreate single-seater racing for the modern world moving away from internal combustion engine technology and acting as a forerunner of new technologies for the sport.

There are good things about Formula E. All the races in the 11-venue series are held on street circuits, as many as possible in “world cities” like Paris, Berlin, Rome and New York. Some circuits, such as Marrakech, Santiago and Sanya in China, are new to international single-seater racing. However the short tracks are bordered by high-safety fencing covered with sponsors’ logos; this makes everywhere look the same although it has the benefit of making the cars which are slow by F1 standards appear quicker than they really are.

The duration of each race is 45 minutes plus one lap, or less than half that of a grand prix, and the whole meeting including practice and qualifying sessions takes place in a single day.

On the technical side, the absence of complicated tyre regulations is a good way of differentiating itself from Formula One, which has bad tyres and worse rules. Formula E cars race on one standard all-weather tyre.

The new second-generation cars this season have attractive bodywork and more powerful batteries, meaning that the drivers no longer have to switch cars in mid-race. Battery technology continues to accelerate in a manner that serves the formula's justifiable claim as a cutting edge for the motor industry's future. Major manufacturers, including Audi, Jaguar, Nissan and BMW, are investing in the formula.

The Fan Boost feature, which allows watchers to give their favourite drivers an extra burst of power via online voting, is a that will always alienate purists but gives spectators and viewers a welcome engagement in their favourite driver.. New for this season is the Attack Mode, another extra temporary power-surge activated by swerving off the regular racing line on a specified section of track. Like F1’s DRS, it would seem unnecessary if the series had got its competitive balance right and early results have been less positive than Fan Boost.

Is Formula E a leader in the sport of motor racing? Not yet. Instead of attacking F1's many weaknesses, Formula E appears to be embracing Grand Prix racing's confused and complex structure by having cars removed to the back of the grid for opaque reasons. However it is a high profile look at the development of technology showcasing to the public that electric cars are going longer and are going faster every year

At least it’s better than the other 21st century alternative which has emerged in the last two years, sponsored by Formula one to attract a new younger audience, which is watching “drivers” playing on eSports simulators, competing for “championships” that exist outside any kind of reality.


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th January

Posted on 18 Jan 2019 10:05 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Arsenal v Chelsea.

- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- NFL, Conference Championship weekend in the NFL Play-Offs

- Rugby Union, The final round of European Champions Cup Rugby Pool matches

- Cricket, the first test between the West Indies and England in Barbados next week and the 2018-19 Big Bash continues.

- Golf, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA the Desert Classic

- Tennis, The Australian Open


NFL Play-Offs by Neil Channing

The NFL Play-Offs (Jan 5th-20th) Package available now at £50 here


The Six Nations (1st Feb – 16th March)

I am pleased to be covering the Six Nations with a full package this year.

To get all the Six Nations analysis, write ups and details of our bets it's £50 sign up here 


Premier League Darts (Thursday 7th Feb-Thursday May 23rd)

Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here


Free tip

European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 4 Saturday 3.15pm Leicester Tigers v Ulster

Ulster beat Racing 26-22 in Belfast last Saturday a key result to put them in pole position for a runners up spot (with Racing likely to beat Scarlets at home and therefore win the group) with the last round of pool stages matches taking place this weekend before the start of the Six Nations. For Ulster a first European quarter-final in four years is at stake. They who could still top their pool, claim a runners-up spot or miss out on the knockout stages entirely. As is usually the case in sport, the simple solution is to win.

In winger Jacob Stockdale they have the premier finisher in European rugby with six tries in five matches so far in this competition this season. With 4 wins out of five in the pool, the single loss coming in Paris, they should win here at Leicester who are in a long term transitional phase and with one win in five games in this competition this season have their thoughts elsewhere.

Leicester played much changed weakened team last weekend losing 33-10 at the Scarlets. Their priority now is their league form and a crucial run of matches without their international players during the six nations. Although their league form has picked up a little after a terrible start to the season the essential weaknesses in defense persist, as well as a lack of quality in the second and back row and although they have picked a stronger team here notably in the back division with May, Tuilagi, Ford and Youngs all starting (which has seen their point spread quote move from +4 to +2 on Friday morning and Ulster drift from 4/7 best) they are likely to be up against it against an Irish province with strength across the board.

Playing at Welford Road against this Leicester side is not the formidable proposition it once was – Racing beat them 34-11 in Leicester before Christmas - after which the Leicester coach described his club as “at its lowest ebb”.

I think Ulster (10/11 outright with Bet365) will be too strong despite the absence of Irish international lock Iain Henderson, highly motivated and will cover -2 at 10/11 available across the market. I like Ulster 1-12 in the region of 6/4+ specifically for this column.

10 points Ulster to win by 1-12 points 15/8 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 7/4 Blacktype, 6/4 Ladbrokes/Coral


All change

Weeks after the £230m deal with CVC to inject new capital into English club rugby union, in which each of the Premiership clubs receives £18m, there are the first indications of how they see the English game being developed.

There is already talk of suspending relegation from the Premiership as early as this season which would be the first step towards creating a closed shop more common with American sports. Bernie Ecclestone in the Mail on Sunday two weeks ago commented “If you got hold of the guys and tarted them up, it would be bigger than American football.”

Clearly there is scope to improve how the club game is marketed and promoted, though whether there is a huge broadcasting rights deal to be done is an open question. Scrapping relegation the Championship mid-season would be counter-productive. What about those in the Championship who have invested in players with the intention of pushing for promotion this season or next? There is already understandable talk of legal action being taken by aggrieved Championship/second-tier clubs.

What happens thereafter, though? What does “tarting up” mean? The Premiership games played in the US for example to date haven’t engaged American sports fans. If an NFL franchise-based competition is the end game, it has to involve a proper draft system, a decent geographical spread and a centralised distribution of funds to ensure competitiveness top to bottom of the league. Instead if they were to look at the Premier League, of course promotion and relegation remain integral features of the model.

Ever since the RFU mistakenly failed to contract the top English players centrally at the outset of professionalism in 1996, the club versus country dynamic has been fraught. The big difference now is clubs are flush with new cash at a time when RFU budgets are under pressure and no permanent chief executive is in place at Twickenham.

It remains fanciful, nevertheless, to imagine a rebel league completely independent of RFU funding, full of players who have opted to turn their backs on representing their country. It would not surprise me if ultimately some kind of global conference system materialises with a world club final at the end of every season but how we get there likely to be a difficult process


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

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