The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
• Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Arsenal
• Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v Australia
• NFL, Week Ten
• Cricket, England’s T20 International Series in the West Indies continues
• Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the DP World Tour Championship
• Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals

Free Tip

England v Australia Autumn International Rugby 3.10pm Saturday

Australia’s first game of these Autumn Internationals, where relatively new coach Joe Schmidt returns to the Northern Hemisphere for the games after he replaced Eddie Jones.

Schmidt’s first games of a major rebuilding task following the dreadful Rugby World Cup performance, and with the domestic game in some disarray, came in the Rugby Championship in the Summer where Australia finished bottom, winning just one of their six games.

They face a tough task first up at Twickenham. England were 22-14 up on the All Blacks with 20 minutes to go last weekend before fading to lose by two points as their last-minute penalty to win hit the post followed by a drop goal falling wide.

Excluding their win over Japan in Tokyo, that’s now 5 Tests in the past 6 matches that England have been ahead in the second half only to lose, three against New Zealand. Learning how to win close games is yet to come!

A key factor in the narrow defeat was that New Zealand’s bench outplayed England’s. This was noticeable in the front row where England’s supremacy vanished when the front three were replaced after 55 minutes.

England went bold with a 6:2 split against New Zealand, but if anything it backfired. Their replacement forwards simply lost the battle up-front, with the likes of Patrick Tuipulotu running riot in the final stages.

If you can’t use the 6:2 to get dominance back into the game, as the Springboks do with the Bomb Squad, there isn’t really a point in using it. It’s back to 5-3 this week!

It’s also routine to replace a player at 10 for the closing stages of a game but here, with the benefit of hindsight, it was a mistake. Marcus Smith at fly-half was having one of his best games at Test level where he grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck by managing where England was playing really well. He kicked beautifully off the tee and that interception on his line which resulted in a try was a clutch play.

Sadly George Ford, in his first game back from injury, looked rusty and England lost control.

Before that England’s defence had been shown to be vulnerable as the All Blacks scored three tries. England rushing up out of a defensive line brought some benefits but was also exploited by the skills of the All Blacks in the offload.

This weekend of course on paper England face an easier task, they are 11.5-point favourites having been 4-point underdogs last week.

Australia are still honing their squad, and have rugby league convert Joseph Sua’ali’i in this squad for the first time at centre and he’s been picked here, a brave but exciting move, and the very experienced Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi are going to be important inclusions compared to the Rugby Championship side.

With England still working on their defensive style I feel that Australia’s backs will also make inroads and could score tries. The key will be whether their pack can hold on and secure enough ball against Itoje, Martin and co in the tight exchanges.

In the Rugby Championship Australia averaged 35 points a game against, not flattered by conceding nearly 60 in one of the Argentina games.

By the end of the Championship in the two New Zealand games things were slightly more promising though. At home they lost by 3 points conceding 20 and away by 20 conceding 33 points.

If they can hold England to 30 points or less here I like their chances of scoring 20 or so, and therefore suggest that Australia +13, up from +11 as the week began is slightly uncomfortable but nevertheless a value bet.

11 points Australia +13 points at 10/11 widely available

Changes

The Cleveland Browns had yet to score 20 points and reach 300 yards in a game this season, and at 3.8 yards per offensive play, they had the worst offense through seven games of any team since 2018. Their average of 3.8 yards per play was a half-yard behind the juggernaut Titans and Patriots. The Browns offense had scored three touchdowns in its last 16 quarters and 95 points in just six games

Quarterback DeShaun Watson had been sacked 29 times, eight more than any other quarterback across the league, and was completing just 60% of his passes, when he tore his achilles in Week 7 against the Bengals and is now out for the season.

The team had already made an odd decision, if the team was intending to win now, of having second year player Dorian Thompson-Robinson as his backed up over the flawed veteran Jameis Winston who nevertheless has big play potential to spark an offense. DTR then was injured in the same game, so Winston it is!

Watson’s contract made benching him, and ultimately cutting him, difficult to do. He’s making $45m this year, will make $45m fully guaranteed next year, and another $45m fully guaranteed the year after that, with cap hits of $72.9M in both years. They are stuck with his contract.

Meanwhile the Browns are watching the player they picked #1 overall Baker Mayfield play really well for another team while the guy they let him walk for, and paid $250m guaranteed, played very poorly.

Head Coach Kevin Stefanski couldn’t bench him even if he wanted to or make the necessary organisational changes to make significant progress and the ownership was wedded to their sunk-cost of a poor decision.

During the first six weeks of the season an absurd 45% of passes directed at their leading wide receiver Amari Cooper qualified as "off target". We haven't seen an off-target rate that high for a player with 40+ targets since at least prior to 2011. Cooper led the NFL with 473 air yards on incomplete targets this season. He was then traded to the Bills.

The Bills have had their own problems at receiver, their players a hodge-podge of too many guys who can’t win on the outside. Their trade for Cooper potentially fixes that problem and gives the rest of the offense more space, all for a 3^rd round draft pick in 2025 and for under $1m in salary cap. For a short-term rental, its solid business.

In 2024 Quarterback Josh Allen has ranked 27^th in yards gained on the deep ball having ranked 10^th and 4^th in the two previous seasons. On paper at least, the Bills and Cooper are a good match.

For the Browns, short term prospects look gloomy, but at least its more draft capital to rebuild next spring.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd November

Coming Up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Southwell.
• Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Chelsea
• Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v New Zealand
• NFL, Week Nine
• Cricket, England’s One Day International Series in the West Indies continues
• Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
• Golf, the Worldwide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Gijon and Moselle Opens

Free Tip

England v New Zealand 3.10pm Saturday Twickenham

The First weekend of a month of Autumn Internationals. England face New Zealand, Australia and South Africa on successive weekends before ending their Autumn campaign against Japan.

England showed some encouraging signs last season to back up their semi-final finish in the 2023 Rugby World Cup. In the Six Nations they recorded three wins, including a famous victory at home to Ireland, and in their two losses they came really close in the last game in Paris losing 33-31 to France. Overall under Borthwick they have only won 13 of 24 games as he has rebuilt from the dramas of the tail-end of the Eddie Jones era.

What was notable was that towards the end of the Championship the team was attacking well and scoring “flair” tries, a rarity for a few years.

England then travelled for two tests in New Zealand in early summer and lost both games narrowly by one and 7 points and have yet to take the next step of winning the very tight games against the top opponents.

Since the summer there has been upheaval. Defence coach Felix Jones resigned in August and claimed to have made his decision because of an "unstable working environment" whilst head of strength and conditioning Aled Walters has taken up a similar role with Ireland.

Joe El-Abd has taken over the defence while performing his director of rugby duties with Oyonnax until the end of the season and Dan Tobin is in charge of conditioning until Phil Morrow can be prised away from Saracens.

In addition these games will be England’s first experience under trialled rule changes including 20-minute red cards and a time limit on scrum and lineout formations. A full red card will still be shown to players guilty of deliberate and dangerous acts of foul play but the unintentional and accidental collisions will only leave a team short-handed for 20 minutes.

England’s opponents in this series have already been playing under new rules in Rugby Championship, a source of unhappiness for England’s coaches.

The squad for November which sees the injured first-choice half-back  Alex Mitchell and and Ben Spencer will play at scrum half and Marcus Smith outside him with the hope that Smith especially will bring out the best of the England backs. Up front second row Ollie Chessum was injured in training camp and misses the whole series, an important loss. Slade and Dombrandt are in the squad despite no domestic play this season through injury.

A refresher on the All Blacks where the Internatrional game has faced player departures to France and Japan led by the finances on offer, the retirements of key players such as Retallick and Whitelock (with Same Cane to follow at the end of the year) and a new coaching team in place led by Scott Robertson who lead the all-conquering Crusaders in Super Rugby for many years.

After the England matches Robertson’s first Rugby Championship game saw a shock loss at home to Argentina, ending in second place losing both games to champions South Africa.

New Zealand’s back line is as threatening as ever but beyond the first choice pack the defections and retirements temporarily leave the All Black squad lacking experienced depth, which has been an issue late in a number of games this year where performance has fallen away after substitutions.

In this squad three players who were initially named are now unavailable: Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papali’i have all been ruled out for calf, thumb and hamstring injuries respectively.

They warmed up with a 64-19 win in Japan last weekend in which most first choice players were rested.

I would expect this to be a close game and am not surprised to see the sides priced New Zealand 4/7 and England 6/4 consistent with recent results, though England now have home advantage. New Zealand are -4 on the handicap, a line that has moved from -2.5 this week. After that line move above ther key 3 point mark I'm on England with the spread.

11 points England +4 points at 10/11 widely available

Jetting off

After Week 3 of the NFL season the New York Jets moved to 2-1. The offense looked sharp and Quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked healthy. Two games later, the Jets were 2-3 and owner Woody Johnson fired coach Robert Saleh.

The timing made little sense, especially with the upcoming Monday night visit from the 3-2 Bills in a key divisional game. Win that and win Week 7 at Pittsburgh, and the Jets would be 4-3 and in contention to win the division.

Salah was hired in  2021 and took a a 2-14 team that was -214 in points differential the season before to a competitive position. The Jets went “all in” on a veteran Quarterback but unfortunately the offense still isn’t working consistently.

Salah though is from a defensive background and through his tenure the Jets defense has been very strong. Since the 2021 season the Jets defense is 1st in points per drive, 1st in Expected points added per play and 3rd in success rate despite playing the fourth-most snaps over that stretch due to the ineffectiveness of the offense.

Under offensive co-ordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers’man, the offense was never solved though. The Jets owner considered the roster ready to compete now but this season they are 23rd in EPA per play and 21st in drop back success rate. The Jets need a total offensive overhaul and that's not feasible mid-season. The very talented running back Breece Hall is under-performing and the on-field relationship between Rodgers and top wide receiver Garrett Wilson is yet to mesh.

It’s far from clear how promoting a defensive co-ordinator to Head coach helps the offensive situation and onlookers are left thinking that Rodgers has got what he wanted, the people around him he wants but no long term solutions yet.

Big picture, the Jets haven't had a head coach finish their tenure with a winning percentage above 50% since 2000, as long term mediocrity continues.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th October

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premier League matches include Arsenal v Liverpool
• NFL, Week Eight
• Cricket, England’s White Ball tour of the West Indies begins next week
• Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
• Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters

Free Tip

Mexico Grand Prix, Sunday 7pm

Five races to go in the 2024 F1 season and Verstappen goes into the final stages of the season 57 points ahead of Lando Norris despite having not won a race since Spain 10 races ago. This is a measure of his domination in the first part of the season and secondly the extent to which upgrades at McLaren have caught them up as the season has progressed.

Since Verstappen’s last win there have been five different winners from three different teams and McLaren have won four races, two each for Norris and Piastri.

As well as the steady McLaren upgrades and Ferrari continuing to be competitive Red Bull have been hamstrung by wind-tunnel use restrictions imposed prior to the start of the season because of cost cap breaches.

As they head to Mexico, just 48 points cover McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari in the Constructors' Championship and that's going to be exciting and tense in the closing stages, given both cars can score points in each team. Mexico’s circuit is characterised by very long straights and one slow stadium section at the end of the lap.

As Norris qualified on pole in Austin last weekend he’ll be a favourite this time too, albeit a poor start left him in fourth place, where he finished following a penalty when overtaking Verstappen late in the race.

The head of the market for the race sees LeClerc, Verstappen and Norris 11/4 each of three.

Leclerc won Monza and since then perhaps should have won Baku, underperformed his and the car's potential in Singapore, but has been very strong of late and its understandable he’s at least joint favourite and the market is a change from races late summer when Norris was clear favourite and reflecting Ferrari’s two wins since. However McLaren have won 3 of the last 5 and Norris too.

13 points Lando Norris to win the Mexico Grand Prix with William Hill

Southern Braves.

Rod Bransgrove the pharmaceutics entrepreneur who bankrolled Hampshire’s move to their new ground in 2001 and who owns more than 60% of the shares in Hampshire Cricket has sold a controlling stake in the county club to GMR Group, owner of the IPL franchise Delhi Capitals and other teams around the world for a reported £120m.

Hampshire have just finished second in the county championship, to go with near misses the previous two years. With a bit of investment, one or two new players and some improvements the very flat pitch at the Utilita Bowl they could be a genuine threat to Surrey’s dominance and achieve their first title since 1973 and become a proper cricketing powerhouse. Hampshire’s female counterparts, the Southern Vipers, are already that and with a strong following. 

There will be player swaps. Hampshire’s young talent could get fast-tracked into GMR’s other franchise teams (eg in UAE, US, and South Africa) and Delhi players might be loaned to Hampshire. Sourav Ganguly, a director of GMR, could persuade Rishabh Pant to make some guest appearances in England for example. Both parties will use their fanbases to broaden engagement and reach and share sponsors. The deal gives Delhi Capitals a proper presence in the UK.

GMR are buying a stadium, and the land and property around it. There is a hotel, a restaurant, entertainment spaces and a golf course, and room for more development on the outskirts of Southampton. It is suitable to host events of all kinds  not just international cricket matches  (the venue will stage its first ever Ashes Test in 2027)  but exhibition games (presumably featuring the Delhi Capitals and GMR’s other teams), golf tournaments, concerts, banquets, conferences and exhibitions etc.

The Utilita Bowl should become the best outdoor facility in that populous corridor all along the south coast from Sussex to Dorset.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th October

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Chelsea
• NFL, Week Seven of the new season including New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium.
• Cricket, England’s Test Series continues in Pakistan with the third Test in Rawalpindi
• Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
• Golf, The ZOZO Championship on the USPGA Tour and Genesis Championship in Korea on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Erste Bank and Basel Opens.

Free Tip

Gallagher Premiership Rugby

Bristol v Saracens Saturday 3.05pm

Four rounds into the season and the two two in the early league table meet at Ashtonm Gate. Both teams have three wins and a loss, with Bristol a point ahead of Saracens on bonus points won.

Following on from their fast-attacking approach of previous seasons, which didn’t always lead to wins it has to be said, Bristol have been prolific this season to date scoring 41,24,40 and 36 points the 36 points in a 5 try underdog win at Bath last weekend where a fast start saw them 19 points ahead and eventually winning by 10.

That result might have flattered them, Bath put in an error-strewn performance but full credit for the result of the season so far.

Bristol lost 41-44 Glouc beat Newcastle, Exeter and Bath away 41 24 40 36 points 5 tries 19 ahead. Bath error strewn performance.

In their first season following the departure of Owen Farrell to France there is a faint air of rebuilding about Saracens as young players begin to find their way into the first team. That said they can still field a team full of internationals with Daly, George, Earl, Itoje etc and are a really tough nut to crack in defence.

So far they’ve beaten Sale, Gloucester and Exeter, their one reverse coming in a 178-10 loss to Harlequins, the one game they’ve not put up points (45,35,29 in the three other games)

Odds for this game are interesting. Saracens are 2.5-point favourites and 4/6 outright, Bristol 5/4+. First thing to do was check the weather, Saracens would be favoured by tough conditions but my apps tell me dry with some sun on Saturday, so all set fair for Bristol’s running rugby.

It’s about time I had a rugby winner (Northampton resting players for a local derby in Leicester last weekend, public after I went live, was not on the agenda). The home underdog will do me here, outright

10 points Bristol Bears to win at 7/5 William Hill, 13/10 Coral/Ladbrokes

Crowded House.

There will be no meaningful reduction in the volume of men's county cricket played in 2025, despite more than 80% of players reporting fears for their physical health due to the busy schedule.

A Professional Cricketers' Association (PCA) survey at the start of this season found that the majority of players believe the schedule is not fit for purpose but next season each county will still play a minimum of 14 matches in the County Championship, eight in the Metro Bank Cup and 14 in the Vitality T20 Blast.

The PCA are still pushing for changes which would see T20 fixtures more spread out across a week to reduce the number of tight turnarounds, and for uniform three-day gaps between Championship matches.

It feels that the Blast was scheduled through a commercial lens, trying to squeeze as many games as possible into Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Utilising the majority of the week is probably the way forward, trying to spread them out to give that time for recovery, travel and preparation.

The main point of discussion for the 2025 schedule has been around the T20 Blast, and when the knockout stages should be held. In 2023, they took place straight after the group stages in July, allowing counties to keep hold of their overseas playe. This year they took place in mid-September.

This year's Blast schedule was described as "ridiculous" by Kent's T20 captain Sam Billings, who said that staging the final two months after the group stages "just does not make sense". If it remains in September next year it will overlap with England's white-ball series against South Africa.

The ECB has announced England’s international fixtures for 2025 with incoming men's tours from Zimbabwe, India, West Indies and South Africa. The Hundred will be played in August, starting immediately after the fifth Test against India and running until the end of the month.

Of course the fact that the Hundred blocks out August is the essential problem, we have one too many tournament for the months available, marginalising the 50 over competition and reducing the profile of the Blast final weekend.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th October

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket and York, over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
• Football, UEFA Nations League matches include England v Greece.
• NFL, Week Six of the new season including Chicago Bears v Jacksonville Jaguars at Tottenham Stadium.
• Cricket, England’s Test Series continues in Pakistan with the second Test in Multan
• Golf, The Shriners Children’s Open on the USPGA Tour and Andalucia Masters on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Almaty, Antwerp and Nordic Opens

Free Tip

Leicester v Northampton Gallagher Premiership 5.30pm Saturday

In the fourth round of games of the new Gallagher Premiership season this East Midlands Derby, a fierce rivalry, is the highlight.

After a disappointing season last time with an 8^th placed finish Leicester recruited the former Australia and Argentina coach Michael Chieka to become their 8^th coach in just over 7 years.

He takes over a Leicester team with a strong pack of forwards and a defence that only conceded 51 tries across 18 league games second best of the ten league teams.

Over the last few years, either side of and including the spell with Syeve Borthwick and Richard Wigglesworth in charge the tactics have generally been kick and defend, with the likes of Geroge Martin and Ollie Chessum to the fore in the second row and Tommy Reffell and Hanro Liebenberg in the back row. When available the marquee player Handre Pollard pulled the strings.

Cheika’s style won’t be as one dimensional and he’ll try to add more flair to the unstructured parts of the game to give Leicester more of an “all-court” style. He’ll also need to improve the team’s conditioning, they lost several games late on last season when fading away.

So far this season they’ve won two of three games, away wins at Exeter and Newcastle, and lost narrowly home to Bath, though only heroic defence meant it that the game remained close throughout.

Northampton are defending Premiership Champions. They opened disappointingly, losing by 22 points in Bath but then scored 30 to beat Exeter and last weekend 33 points to beat Harlequins. This is more like it for the most exciting side in the country with a very quick, attacking style of play.

In Finn Smith at fly half with Fraser Dingwall, Ollie Sleightholme, Tommy Freeman and George Furbank outside there are a collection of players breaking through into the England team. What Northampton are missing nowadays is a bit of grunt up front with Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam departing for France in the summer.

If they hold their own up front in this game, they should have too much gas for Leicester and I like them to win narrowly.

15 points Northampton to win at Evens widely available

Rebuild.

Former England cricket white ball coach Matthew Mott took England to three World Cups and won one of them, his team beating Pakistan at the MCG less than two years ago plus a semi-final in the T20 World Cup in June. However the 2023 50 over event in India saw a group stage exit and a series of poor performances.

Meanwhile Test coach Brendon McCullum overseen 19 wins, eight defeats and a single draw, and has given them a clear identity that they were sorely lacking. He is yet to win a series against the world's top two. England drew with Australia last summer, and were heavily beaten in India earlier this year.

Now McCullum has signed a new deal as England's men coach which will cover all formats and runs until the end of 2027 Timeframe of new contract includes 2025-26 + 2027 Ashes, 2025 Champions Trophy, 2026 T20 World Cup and 2027 50ov World Cup. The belief is that he can have the same effect as in the Test side on a stagnant white-ball set-up. It also reflects that it has been difficult to recruit from the pool of global cricket coaches in competition with the rewards on offer from the franchise circuit.

Only India play more men's international cricket than England, and England play more Tests than anyone. Their ludicrous fixture list was encapsulated by the 24-hour turnaround between the scheduled fifth-day finish of the recent third Test against Sri Lanka and the start of a T20I series against Australia.

McCullum's task will be to inject some energy into a white-ball set-up which felt desperately low  by the time they were knocked out of June's T20 World Cup. He will watch from afar for 14 games, with Marcus Trescothick in interim charge, then will have a quick tour to India to make his mark before February's Champions Trophy.

The trouble lies further ahead, with a dilemma that is familiar to England's captains and coaches across the past two decades: how can you plan for both an Ashes series, and a World Cup straight after it?

Meanwhile Jos Buttler’s captaincy will be under scrutiny and he has never worked with McCullum.

In the period between Mott and McCullum England are rebuilding using younger players so we can't expect the white ball team to gel, straight away. England are moving on from the Moeen, Jordan, Buttler, Rashid generation and the ODI series against Australia just finished saw Brook, Bethell, Jacks, Jamie Smith, Carse and Potts selected.

The series saw Australia’s 13th ODI win in a row. Only their team of 2003 has more consecutive ODI victories for Australia.

The differences in squad composition can really be seen in the batting where Australia’s contains five of the current test top six including Head, Steve Smith and Labuschagne. Although minus the big three quicks Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood the line-up includes top spinner Zampa and a number of experienced franchise players

They look ready for major tournaments now, whereas England are at the start of another rebuild.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.