Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Week of 14th-18th June

Posted on 12 Jun 2018 10:12 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, The World Cup starts on Thursday.

Rugby Union, Summer tour matches include second tests between South Africa v Wales, Australia v Ireland and New Zealand v France.

-Cricket, the second ODI between Australia and England in Cardiff

- Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Fontwell Park and Hexham.

Tennis, the start of the grass court season, ATPs Ricoh Open and Stuttgart, the WTA Nottingham Open.

Golf, on the USPGA the 117th US Open at Shinnecock Hills.


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US Open Golf, Shinnecock Hills, New York (starts Thursday)

The 2018 US Open heads to New York, and back to the Shinnecock Hills Golf Course, a links on Long Island that last hosted the Championship in 2004.

The US Open is renowned for being one of the hardest course set-ups of the year. The course has undergone some substantial changes since then. Most notably, the course has been lengthened by 449 yards ( just over 5%, to 7445 yards), which means this year's leaderboard might not be as peppered with shorter hitters as it was when Retief Goosen held off Phil Mickelson to win his second U.S. Open title, when players  like Jeff Maggert and Fred Funk lurked. 

However whilst fairways have been widened, critical landing zones have in fact been narrowed, making it difficult to get ball placement correct. Only nine players have finished under par in the last three US Opens at Shinnecock, with the median score a high +5.5 (over par) in 2004. Whilst the course should play differently, expect it to be a real examination. My search is for value amongst straight hitters. 

Scouring the stats and tables for a shortlist one name began to stand out. On the USPGA this year he is 1st in Driving accuracy percentage, 1st in greens in regulation and 15th in birdies scored. Only 183rd of 300 plus in length off the tee but at 285 yards average, long enough.

This player has four top tens this year, and has finished in the top 25 in eight of his last nine tournaments. In those top 10s? 5th in the Masters, 4th in the Arnold Palmer and 2nd in the HSBC Champions. So not only is he straight as a die, his form is decent too

He is 15th in the OWGR. The icing on the potential cake? Four top tens in the Open in the last ten years, including three top threes and a win in the last seven years. Its no surprise with his type of game he’ll go well in all weather on links courses.

Have you got it yet?

I want to be backing Henrik Stenson.

Now of course there is a wide range of terms on offer. From 33/1 one quarter the odds five places to the variety of marketing offers up to ten places one fifth where you give up on the price (down to 25-1) to get the extra places. I am going to suggest a middle ground because I want some extra places without accepting 25/1 for ten places.

10 points each way Henrik Stenson US Open 35/1 Black Type (7 places 1/5) 33/1 Bet365 (8 places, 1/5) and Sportingbet (7 places 1/5) 30/1 Betfred (7 places 1/5)  


Modern Times

Compared to other sports cricket has been unusual in how much it has tended to view teaselection as an art not a science. Hunches and left field selections have long been a staple of the English game. That is beginning to change with T20 cricket in the vanguard especially in the Big Bash League in Australia but increasingly in all forms of the game.

Cricket has always been heavy on statistics but used more for record-keeping than analysis. Now statistics experts are being used by teams a couple of decades on from a similar trend in baseball made famous in the “Moneyball” story.

Just taking English cricket, its long been clear that there are biases in selection often because someone plays for a particular team in a particular division, or happen to have performed on the occasion they have had a selector watching. Greater use of statistical insights may bode well for those from less glamorous counties. There is also a pressing issue to look beyond the traditional "eye tests" that selectors have adopted. One analyst found that of the 40 top-order players selected by England in Tests this century only eight improved their Division One County Championship record in Tests.

An increased emphasis on statistics is likely to lead to a far more radical change in T20 than Tests. T20 cricket is a less mature game, and in the shorter format single performances can sway games and there is a far greater randomness in results. Because there is so much more T20 played each year, and specific scenarios repeat themselves, there is a huge amount of data being collected to analyse to find angles to exploit.

Two examples of how analytics have worked are as follows. Firstly in England, Northamptonshire. Using data way ahead of the competition as a means of overcoming their competitive disadvantage (lack of finance), they reached three T20 Blast finals in four seasons from 2013-16 with a team consisting of some young talent and a lot of unheralded cast-offs fulfilling specific roles, despite having among the five smallest budgets of the 18 counties. 

Secondly in Australia, the new national coach Justin Langer revolutionised the use of data at the Perth Scorchers who are the most successful BBL team, via use of analytics on not just his own team but the opposition too and selecting teams on a case by case basis as a result.

Despite England’s more aggressive and modern approach in one-day international cricket, T20 has been their worst format in the last two years; Analysts contend that England are losing in T20 partly because they aren’t picking their best team. One report last year suggested the optimal national T20 team based off county performances. Only two were in the national T20 squad at the time. There are a lot of players who play for unfashionable counties and have never been involved in England age-group pathways but who have particular skills (for example there is a seamer at Gloucester who can bowl knuckleballs to order in the death overs), suggesting that data can alert selectors to players otherwise ignored. 

Using data more heavily can never eliminate selection mistakes but by finally embracing a more rounded approach and with a greater number of selectors and scouts now following up the clues at a wider range of games it could make England a more successful team. 


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Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

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There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase

 (correct at 26/04/2018)

 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th June

Posted on 7 Jun 2018 13:15 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Rugby Union, Summer tour matches include South Africa v Wales, Australia v Ireland and New Zealand v France.

- Racing, On the flat at Beverly, Catterick, Haydock, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Newmarket and over the jumps at Stratford.

- Motor Racing, the Canadian Grand Prix

Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open.

Golf, on the USPGA the FedEx St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind and on the European Tour the Shot Clock Masters in Austria.


FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section

2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) /  2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI

By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.

On top of that you will get the now published extensive outright preview. You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.    

Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here

If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.


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South Africa v England 1st Test Saturday 4pm BST, Johannesburg

South Africa will return to their full strength team after an underwhelming and disjointed 22-20 defeat to Wales in Washington last weekend where they looked under-cooked, not altogether surprising for the first international of the season with a scratch side that only arrived in the US 48 hours before the game.

The bigger picture is more encouraging, South Africa have picked up since the nadir of their form in 2016, won two and drew two of their six games in last season’s rugby championship and are a more formidable prospect in Johannesburg than most of their grounds.

There is a cultural change going on too under new coach Erasmus. Back come five overseas-based players to bolster the ranks (thanks to a change in selection policy finally agreed by the board)– Duane Vermeulen, Faf De Klerk and Willie le Roux who playin this Test among them – while the appointment of Siya Kolisi as South Africa’s first black captain has been met with universal approval.

South Africa are not without their injury problems (Warren Whiteley, Malcolm Marx, Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth in particular will be missed ) and Erasmus could probably have done without the Washington DC match but it is a strong-looking squad and the Super Rugby form of the Lions and the Bulls is engendering optimism.

It’s been a long season for England. Players came back off the Lions tour, and in many cases played up to 60 games over the domestic season (with no central contracts protecting them from over-use). They only finished 5th of 6 in the Six Nations having been warm favourites ante-post and there has been much carping since. On the field the absence of suitable back row combinations was a glaring weakness through the spring and a very disappointing lack of attacking flair with ball in hand whilst off the field there has been much criticism of Jones’ tough training schedules for players already over-worked

The effect of a poor season means the squad selected has a transitional look, not ideal 15 months before a world cup with injuries also a factor. So no Hartley, Cole and Haskell suggests a changing of the guard, Cipriani a reversal of a long held selection grudge by successive coaches and the latest import Brad Shields coming in from New Zealand plus lots of young players selected in a 34 man squad where there are no games outside the Test Matches.

There are changes in every key area of the team compared with the side which started England’s last Six Nations game against Ireland, with a few hunch selections. Yes England have some world class players in Farrell, Itoje and both Vunipola’s but strength in depth does now look an issue and the issues around creativity and the back row look no closer to being resolved.

It is eight years since anyone other than New Zealand defeated South Africa at this venue at altitude. A good Ireland team went down 2-1 two years ago. Playing here first with no meaningful hit out at altitude first is a big drawback for England.

Odds for this match are South Africa 8/13 and England 11/8. I like South Africa, and -3 on the handicap and especially (expecting an attritional match with both defences better than both attacks) I like....

10 points South Africa to win by 1-12 points at 3.0 Betfair/Matchbook, 9/5 Ladbrokes and  7/4 all with Betfred, Coral, Skybet


Championship

The ICC Cricket Committee met in Mumbai just over a week ago to discuss the playing conditions for the World Test Championship. The Championship begins after the 2019 World Cup, consisting of the nine ICC full members playing 27 bilateral series with the final is set to be played in June 2021most likely at Lords..

The potential changes are significant. For example the committee discussed whether to do away with the toss, the nature of the points system well as the quality of pitches. The ICC's chief executives' committee will take the discussion further during the annual conference in Dublin in June.

In the new playing conditions, it is at the discretion of the home board to schedule a day-night Test in a series and the touring side only has the option of veto over a second or more scheduled day-nighter. This is significant for India, who have previously vetoed  playing day-night on their own tours.

The ICC's concerns about the quality of pitches and pitch doctoring in international cricket led to a discussion about ending the toss. The idea here being that a home side will not prepare a tricky batting pitch if they know there will be no toss if the away team chooses there not to be. They eventually decided "that it was an integral part of Test cricket which forms part of the narrative of the game."

Given the number of pitches ICC officials have considered to be poor over the last few years they want to introduce severe penalties for sides that create unfit pitches. If a match is abandoned and the pitch is subsequently rated as unfit by the match referee, the match will be considered to have been won by the visiting team when the competition points are allocated for that series.

With regard to the points system the ICC asked the cricket committee to recommend whether points should be allocated for both match and series results, plus the correct ratio of points for a draw relative to a win. The committee recommended draws be worth a third of the points of a win and that points should only be awarded for each match and not a series win.

The committee also discussed potential points penalties for poor behaviour by players and slow over rates. The meeting voted in favour of raising the sanctions associated with ball-tampering and having penalties for "personal, insulting, offensive or orchestrated abuse"

All the Test Championship fixtures will be played over five days and there will have to be a minimum gap of three days between Tests. As is already the case, the choice of ball to be used will remain with the host country during the league phase. For the final the ball will "likely" be the same as that used to play Tests in the country that hosts the match.


 

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Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase

 (correct at 26/04/2018)

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd June

Posted on 1 Jun 2018 13:32 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, International Friendlies including England v Nigeria at Wembley. 

Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan at Headingley

- Rugby Union, Summer tours begin, South Africa v Wales in Washington DC this weekend.

- Racing, Derby Weekend at Epsom. Also on the flat at Chepstow, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester.

Tennis, the middle weekend of the French Open.

Golf, on the USPGA the Memorial at Muirfield Village and on the European Tour the Italian Open.


FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section

2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) /  2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI

By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.

On top of that you will get the now published extensive outright preview and ante-post write up. You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.    

Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here

If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.


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The 2018 Investec Derby by Neil Channing (Saturday 4.30pm)

We have twelve runners in The Derby and the first thing to consider is the going which is on the soft side of good to soft as I right this on Friday afternoon and which probably ought to be at least good to soft by 4.30pm on Saturday with a chance of rain overnight.
 
 The Derby is described as the ultimate test as the course requires a combination of speed, stamina and balance but with these conditions I guess the stamina may turn out to be the most important.
 
 A couple of horses that won't stay, in my opinion, are Roaring Lion, who may not like this ground and who would look like a good place lay to me, and also Masar who looks like one that also may not like this ground. Zabriskie was well beaten by Roaring Lion in the Dante so he probably won't be good enough and his stable mate The Pentagon also looks well held plus he ought not to like this ground.
 
 Kew Gardens is another of the O'Brien team but he was beaten fair and square in the Lingfield trial when odds-on so I don't think I'll take him. If I wanted one at 33/1 or more I think I'd rather chance Sevenna Starwho needs to improve a lot but who should like the ground.
 
 Delano Roosevelt ought to stay the trip but he is held on form by Hazapour who won a strong Derrinstown. If I was betting three in the race I think I'd have Hazapour but I've decided to stick to just two.
 
 The other horse that I might have added if I went mad and bet four was Knight to Behold. We don't totally know if he got a bit lucky in the Lingfield Derby trial where he slipped the field and he may not love this ground but he ought to stay and I'm sure he is much bigger than he ought to be due to the smaller stable. If you are getting 1/4 123 and fancy a couple of extra bets then stick him in.
 
 The favourite Saxon Warrior could easily win and he looked like a real champion when winning the 2,000 Guineas. I'm really not a fan of betting horses that have been impressive over a mile for their first try at 1m4f and I'm really not a fan of betting horses at odds-on around this quirky track. The fact that stall one has been so bad over the years makes me think I wouldn't bet him at 6/4.
 
 The Chester Vase is the trial I'm going to focus on. Dee Ex Bee was drawn wide in that one and despite that he managed to stay on for 2nd. He definitely stays, he ought to be Ok on the ground and SDS seems to have figured out how to grab the lead up the "magic carpet" on the stands rail. Although that doesn't normally happen in The Derby where they usually race on the far side, tomorrow I can see the winner being in front a furlong out and tight against the stands side.
 
 Although Young Rascal is half the price of Dee Ex Bee he did beat him at Chester and he looked to have a lot ion the locker. His stable are flying, he has won on soft ground, we know he stays and he is definitely improving. He looks a big price to me.
 
I'm having 12 Points each-way Young Rascal at 11/1 1/5th 123 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook (would take 10/1 1/4 123 if that popped up tomorrow).
 
 I'm having 7 Points each-way Dee Ex Bee at 22/1 1/4 123 with Bet365 or 25/1 1/5th 123 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook

The End of the Wild West?  

A fortnight ago the Supreme Court ruled a 25-year old federal law known as the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) unconstitutional, opening the door for fully legalised sports betting in the US including at venues.

The Supreme Court panel ruled by a 7–2 vote in favour of New Jersey (only the state of Nevada is exempt), which puts the decision on whether to legalise it in the hands of each individual state. Bills are already passed in 5 states and introduced in 14 others. A 2017 report estimated that as many as 32 states could offer legal sports betting within the next five years. 

The NFL has been more reluctant than other leagues to embrace the possibility of legislative change but that attitude has changed over the last year. They have shifted into planning for the new business opportunity that is opening up.

The NFL will study the NBA. The NBA has been aggressive saying it will seek a 1% cut of all basketball-related bets. They liken to this to an “integrity fee,” or a “royalty to the league.” Some states have baulked and the NBA have expressed a willingness to take less than 1%.

Some gambling advocates say cutting into sportsbooks’ profits with such fees could force them to offer tighter odds, which could push bettors back to the illegal markets.

As it stands, NFL teams are not allowed to have deals with casinos that have sports books and can’t use the word “casino” in any advertising they sell. It’s fair to say a casino with a sports book wouldn’t mind exposure to 80,000 keen sports fans on a weekly basis.

NFL Owners believe there’s money to be made in allowing fans in the stands to bet on in-game situations via phone apps adding to the entertainment value of the in-stadium experience. At a time when the NFL is having issues convincing the public to go to stadiums, there’s potential for the change here to be transformative. Meanwhile legalisation introduces new, creative ways to make an NFL Sunday more interactive than ever. The idea of sitting watching three games in a row for 12 hours doesn’t appeal to the younger fan like it did for the generation before them.

Finally the NFL is thinking of what it needs to do in the sphere of Information provision for example in areas like injury reports and other game information to ensure that everyone operating in gambling markets is on the same playing field.


Brodders Football Analysis

Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase

 (correct at 26/04/2018)

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th May

Posted on 25 May 2018 10:53 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, the Football League play off finals including Fulham v Aston Villa in the Championship. 

Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan continues at Lords and the IPL final on Sunday

- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix.

- Racing, On the flat at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock, Salisbury and York and also over the jumps at Cartmel and Ffos Las.

Tennis, ATP Events in Geneva and Lyon.

Golf, on the USPGA the Forth Worth Invitational and Colonial and on the European Tour the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.


Starting Sunday: French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 27st May -10th June 2018

Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and if you had followed the packages for all our French Opens so far (2014-2017) you would have won £2459 betting £10 a point with a +ROI of 21.99%

Outright previews are out now.

Full package £50 see here


FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section OUT MIDDAY SATURDAY!

2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) /  2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI

By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.

On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.    

Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here

If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.


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Free tip

IPL Final Chennai Super Kings v Sunrisers Hyderabad Sunday 27th May 2.30pm Mumbai

In their play-off game against Sunrisers on Tuesday, played between the top two teams in the group stages and with the winner going straight to the final, Fanie Du Plessis hit a match-winning 66* as CSK just got home chasing 140. CSK collapsed to 66-6 in their reply and then needing 43 off the final two and a bit overs produced incredible hitting when all seemed lost, and Sunrisers’ record of defending low totals in improbable victories came to an end.

This season alone CSK have come from nowhere four times to win scoring 47 off 2.5 overs v Mumbai, 41 off 2.5 vs KKR, 44 off 2.4 vs RCB and now 43 off 2.1 v Sunrisers. Back in the IPL after their year-long suspension and with the core of their team intact for many years CSK are a formidable outfit. Two time IPL Champions, this will be their seventh IPL final. Such is their record that one commentator described the IPL as 'A tournament where seven teams play to meet CSK in the final'

CSK are probably only a year or two away from their long running core breaking up. Watson, Bravo, Dhoni amongst others are all near the end of their careers but their depth in experience (Raina and Jadeja amongst them) and match-winners batting right down the order means they will go off favourites in this match, as has been the case all season

On a better pitch than the Eliminator game against Rajastan earlier in the week Sunrisers struggled up to 174 in the semi-fnal with ony late Rashid Khan hitting getting them to a reasonable total when earlier 150 looked unlikey. KKR are a dangerous batting side if their top order comes off. Lynn and the pinch hitter Narine play to get quick starts in the powerplay (67 and 66 in their two games versus Sunrisers this season in Powerplayers where the highest conceded by Hyderabad in the competition) and it was only with the introduction of spin, and Rashid in particular that the game began to turn

Outright prices for the game are CSK 8/11 and Sunrisers 11/10 and I can't argue with that really.

My angle here concerns the CSK captain MS Dhoni, universally recognised as one of the best finishers in the game. We only need to look at the CSK run scoring charts for the 2018 IPL to get a feel for his talent

Bear in mind that the batting order for CSK in the first game of the play offs was Watson, Du Plessis, Raina, Rayadu, Dhoni then Bravo, with Dhoni batting 4 and mostly 5 throughout the competition:

Rayadu 15 matches 586 runs

Dhoni 15-455

Watson 14-438

Raina 14-413

Dhoni has no less than 9 not outs and three fifties this season. When his side is chasing (typically they will chase if they win the toss), he will frequently re-jig the batting order depending on what happens in the early overs to try to ensure he has the maximum chance of being there at the end, and thus maximise his side’s chances of getting home.

The shape of the top CSK batsman market for the final is interesting. Dhoni appears 5th-7th in the betting depending where you look. This is simply incorrect.

 

Of course we would expect the top three to be at the head of the betting but CSK have a very recent history of poor starts:

39-4 in the play-off game 

27-3 in the final group game

With Rashid being so pivotal to this game and a real match winner all tournament the Dhoni has plenty of approaches to counter spin which the blasters elsewhere in the order sometimes lack but depending how the top of the order goes I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to bat the overs Rashid doesn't bowl to ensure he is there at the end of the 20 overs!

 10 points MS Dhoni Top CSK Run Scorer at 6/1 with Bet365 11/2 William Hill 

 


The Equals

At the end of another Premier League season figures are released on the split of prize and TV money for the season just gone. The Premier League distributes prize money more fairly than most leagues. However there are still inequities built into the system, which is biased to favour big clubs because they finish higher (more money) and get more live TV games (more money).

The 'Big 6' were on TV 161 times last season and the bottom six 56 times. You could argue that this is entirely reasonable in a meritocracy. Looking back over those 26 years six clubs, the top six in the Premier League last season coincidentally, have earned 33% of the league’s prize and TV appearance money, a percentage which has been growing in recent years. Individually each of the top six have now earned over £1bn (£6.6bn in total) while 43 clubs have shared the rest of a total of £20bn.

Everton the only club outside of the Big Six to have been in the Premier League throughout, are not far behind the top six, earning £959m.

Given the meritocratic element to prize money and volume related TV appearance money, an equitable split of the “base” TV rights is in the interests of a competitive league.

Currently each club receives about £12.5m guaranteed then £1.18m per live TV game above 10 games.  For prize money the bottom club gets £2m, and each other team gets the same again per position above them. Then providing that measure of equality essential for some competitive balance, above that there are equal shares of domestic TV income, overseas TV income and central commercial income totalling around £82m last season. This produces a spread of income from £98m for Stoke at the bottom to £153m for Manchester City at the top taking last season as an illustration.

Looking forward, there is a dispute over the split of 2019-22 overseas broadcast revenue. The top six would like to drive through major reform to the distribution such that they receive a far greater share of the income. Of course in terms of the impact of marketing the league overseas the big clubs are crucial to the size of any deal, but understandably the other 14 clubs object to another move to reduce equity in income and presumably in due course reduce competitiveness of the league further.

On the outcome of those negotiations might rest the hopes of sides outside the top six from interloping into the higher echelons of the league again in the run up to 2022.


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Betting Emporium results

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase

 (correct at 26/04/2018)

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th May

Posted on 18 May 2018 08:43 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, the FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Manchester United. 

Cricket, the IPL continues ahead of the play-offs next week.

- Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Bangor and Uttoxeter.

Tennis, ATP Rome, ahead of the French Open.

Golf, on the USPGA the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship and on the European Tour the Belgian Knockout.


Starting next week: French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018

Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%

Full package £50 see here


FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section

2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) /  2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI

By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.

On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.    

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Free tip

The FA Cup Final

This column is in the fortunate position of having an ante-post bet on Chelsea at 6-1 for the FA Cup, in which they play Manchester United in the final this weekend. I follow Neil Channing’s general view on hedging: we have a bet at a good price, the stake isn’t outside the parameters of a reasonable staking plan and so we’ll let it ride.

In terms of the match itself if we wanted to be bearish on Chelsea it is easy to construct the argument: Conte himself, at the end of a fractious season, might have checked out. With (an albeit remote) prospect of a top four Premier League place up for grabs Chelsea lost 3-0 at Newcastle last Sunday in a very half-hearted effort.

Simultaneously the case for Manchester United is easily made. Often somewhat defensively Mourinho is skilled at setting his team up for big one-off games and looks to nullify the opposition’s strengths first, so here that means attention on Hazard first and foremost. In a season where they finished the season second in the Premier League they rarely set pulses racing.

The case for Manchester United is reflected in outright prices for the game. United are 7/4 favourites, Chelsea 15/8 underdogs with the draw the outsider in the 1-2-X market at 11/5.

The sides have met four times this season and under 2.5 goals has landed in three of the four times (and seven of nine times since 2014-2015) and the current price for that outcome here is a meagre 8/15. More generally United only conceded 28 goals in the 38 game league season with De Gea behind the back four and Matic in front of it and one goal in their run to the FA Cup final (with Romero in goal).

Chelsea meanwhile, despite their fifth place league finish, only conceded an average of a goal a game and two goals in their FA Cup campaign including going to extra time twice. Chelsea managed just 39 goals in their final 26 Premier League matches, and they failed to score in 9 of those games.

There has to be a more than reasonable chance that this game goes beyond 90 minutes, and in the “to lift the trophy” market prices are United 4/5 Chelsea Evens.

At the prices I think my central expectation would be that the game would go to extra-time in a low scoring affair and the draw at 11/5 with Bet365 is the outright play and for this column Draw/Draw in the half time/full time market provides a bit more juice..

As long as Chelsea win at the end (not something you will often find me saying!)

10 points FA Cup final Half Time/Full Time Draw/Draw 7/2 SkyBet 100/30 Bet365 16/5 William Hill/Betfred


Roy of the Rovers

A dozen English cricketers have been playing in the IPL in the last month with varying degrees of success. Many of these cricketers have played test cricket but in many cases they have made their name in the one day game have moved away from first class cricket rather than look to establish themselves in the Test team.

It might be argued that one such is Jason Roy, who I have been watching since he was a teenager. After Roy, a naturally gifted cricketer for flat tracks and fielding restrictions but without the water-tight technique for the red ball game, had made 180 in the late Australian summer ODIs there were calls for him to be pushed into the Test team. I would argue that he is a limited-overs specialist.

Whether he has the ability to play all forms for England it is now unlikely to be soon. Having been encouraged to sign up for the IPL auction by England, Roy’s next first-class match is likely to be on July 20. That would be his only four-day game before England pick their Test squad for the first Test against India.

What is then frustrating is that for the most part (one blistering innings for the Delhi Daredevils and a few failures apart) Roy has warmed the bench in India for the bottom side in the competition. 

One of the big features of English cricket in recent years is how many players had seen their Test ambitions decline through lack of opportunity to make their case in the longer format. Players like Roy, Alex Hales and others are not choosing between limited-overs cricket and Test cricket, they are choosing their international short-format careers over first-class cricket for their counties which more or may often not lead to Test cricket. Aside from the obvious financial reason for doing so in the last four years England have played 50 Tests and 123 one-day internationals and T20 internationals so there are more limited over opportunities available.

Players choose the IPL over the first-class early season domestic cricket which is often played on poor pitches in questionable weather with no guarantee of Test cricket to follow, and and often capricious selection policy to accompany that uncertainty. The upshot is that a lot of promising young England players find themselves specialising on the one day game, and not just for financial reasons.

As England are top of the ODI rankings and after a poor winter are now 5th in the Test rankings it is an easy argument that the Test team itself has suffered from having so many promising cricketers diverted away from first-class cricket as they approach their peak and ready to play all formats for their country.

Perhaps a new national England Test selector picking Jos Buttler for the first Test against Pakistan (and removing a star player from the Rajastan Royals were they to make the IPL play-offs next week) is a welcome sign that the balance might be redressed slightly going forward.


Brodders Football Analysis

Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)

Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase

 (correct at 26/04/2018)

 

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