Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chepstow, Chester, Newmarket and York, on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Hexham.
- Football, European Championship Qualifying matches.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues, the Quarter-Finals.
- NFL, Week Six
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Tennis ATP Japan Open.
- Golf the ZOZO Championship on the USPGA
Free Tip
The Cesarewitch Newmarket Saturday 2.40pm by Neil Channing
The racing at Newmarket on Friday was run on good to soft ground but with 9mm of rain expected Friday night, maybe 5mm more on Saturday morning and further rain during racing it does seem likely that this year's Cesarewitch will be run on extremely testing ground, probably heavy.
Given that the big handicap is run over 2m2f it really ought to be a massive slog and I think we ought to only bet horses that have won over the trip and who want this kind of ground. The quandary slightly comes because the race contains a whole load of horses that stay further than this over jumps who have yet to prove they can do it on the flat. I've seen enough racing to know that I want to see that a horse has done something before I bet them to do it, so I'll scratch those jumps runners who I can't be sure will get home and that includes the favourite Pied Piper, who has had a couple of goes at long distances without convincing me and The Shunter, who connections could easily know more than me about the horse.
Goshen is not a horse I've ever warmed to and on the flat he's mostly run over shorter trips so I don't see him as a solid option here, Jesse Evans has been thought of as not wanting soft ground and we don't know about his stamina, Oh So Sleepy was 4th in this in 2019, 4th again in 2020 and 3rd last year but in all three races he faded late on and didn't quite seem to stay the trip. I'm fairly sure Zoffee, who was 4th last year, and Tritonic both stay this trip but I don't think either of them wanted the rain to fall so hard. Basically there is only one horse under 28/1 who runs both on jumps and the flat who I can consider and that is Sheishybird.
I'm not going to look at horses over 28/1 as only a couple have shown they can win on the trip and our old friend the Favourite/Longshot bias makes it hard for us to get value betting horses each-way at big prices with the bookmakers as the true price is more accurately reflected on exchanges and these are generally going to be much bigger.
Of the horses that haven't tried further than this jumping only Grand Providence, Temporize, Vino Vetrix, Tahkhan and Blazeon Five have won or come 2nd over this trip and I'll throw out Vino Vetrix and Blazeon Five whose stables are really out of form at the moment.
I'm left with just four possible bets...
Sheishybird ran 2nd in a trial for this recently and off this mark would appear to have a good chance. The problem is she has run 18 times on the flat and only once she's run on soft and that didn't go well. It looks like it's not what her connections think she'll want.
Grand Providence won the recent trial race off 85 and has gone up five pounds for that. She is pretty inexperienced having just run five times on turf and she's been in the first three in all five. One of those runs was on heavy where she was 3rd. Just looks very solid to me.
Temporize has run eleven times on turf and the only two on soft were both wins. He won the Goodwood 2m4f race really easily and so he'll definitely stay here and this looks like a solid bet.
Taskhan won easily enough over this trip and on soft ground last time. He has gone up just three pounds and he loves this ground but after 20 runs we basically know where we are with him and although I can see him plodding round in 4th or 5th he may not have enough up his sleeve.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Temporize at 14/1 1/5th 123456 easily available.
I'm having 10 Points each-way Grand Providence at 9/1 1/5th 123456 easily available.
Suffer Jets.
New York Jets Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles in Week one of the NFL season was one of the most significant injuries, and the most devastating to a team and fan base in NFL history. There never has been a player who received more off-season hype for a high-profile big city team that has languished in the doldrums for over a decade. With expectations raised, Rodgers’ season ended after just four plays of the first game without him ever completing a pass.
Against the odds the Jets team then went on to beat the Bills in that game but with a 1-3 record are winless since with former second overall draft pick Zach Wilson at Quarterback, a player who under-performed so far in his rookie season that he was benched.
In four starts this season Wilson has 911 passing yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Jets are winless in his first three starts despite a terrific defense, one of the league’s best with stars such as cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, both recent first round draft picks performing well. Also the Jets have some young foundational offensive skill players in last year’s first round selection wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall.
Only in the Week four Sunday night football defeat at home to the Kansas City Chiefs did Wilson begin to show some encouraging sides, with the offense adapted to include some pre-snap motion, a change from a Rodgers offense which typically operated without any.This continued with a better performance at Denver last weekend where he completed 73% of passes against the league’s worst defense.
The Jets have so far resisted the temptation to trade for a bona fide NFL Quarterback starter, a Kirk Cousins say, who is in the last year of his Vikings contract at the age of 5. They have brought in journeyman Trevor Siemian who may replace Zach Wilson at some point before it is too late to salvage any play-off prospects.
One of the reasons they may not have done so is that Rodgers is under contract beyond this season, for $75m guaranteed until the end of next season. Whilst this represents a $35m pay cut from his recent Green Bay Packer contract, with the aim of allowing the Jets to build out the rest of the roster alongside him, it does preclude a big Quarterback acquisition without changing other player contracts or trading players away.
For the Jets this is looking like anther lost season, for a team that last made the play-offs in 2010 and has only done so seven times since 1990.
They represent an extreme case of what happens when a franchise Quarterback is injured, as they aren’t 32 Quarterbacks good enough to start at the required standard in the NFL let alone allowing teams to have the depth to roster back-ups that can send teams to winning seasons if they are required to play for a significant number of weeks through the regular season.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar, Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Fontwell
- Football, the Premier League matches include Arsenal v Manchester City.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues, the last round of Pool Matches.
- NFL, the new season continues, week 5.
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Zhengzhou Open.
- Golf the Shriners Children’s Open on the USPGA and the Spanish Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
The Qatar Grand Prix 6pm Sunday
The second edition of this Grand Prix. After Lewis Hamilton won the inaugural race in 2021, the 2022 race didn’t take place due to planning for the then upcoming Football World Cup. The race resumes this year on a 10 year contract and it’s a night race.
A fast circuit with long fast corners it will be no surprise if Max Verstappen wins for Red Bull and therefore wins his third world title this weekend. He’s won 13 races this season and Red Bull have won 14 of 15, the exception being Ferrari’s recent win in Singapore. There are six races of the season to go.
Behind Verstappen, Sergio Perez’s inconsistent form leaves a couple of podium positions to be won at most races and therefore often each-way interest for bettors.
Amongst the other teams Mercedes have performed consistently all season, and are currently second in the Constructors Championship with both drivers typically finishing 3rd-6th without the raw pace or speed in the fast corners of a couple of other teams they are opposable in markets.
Aston Martin began the season like a house on fire but have fallen away relative to some competitors, into the midfield, as they’ve been out-developed by the big teams. That leaves Ferrari and McLaren to look at.
Ferrari can often be expected to make strategy mistakes, their team management is not up to the quality of some other teams and as a result their two drivers LeCler and Sainz have only 5 top three finishes in 15 races this season combined. Contrast that with Lando Norris at McLaren who has four top three finishes in the last seven races alone, as McLaren have upgraded consistently during the second part of the season towards the front of the grid.
On this track McLaren, whether it be Norris or Piastri, but especially Norris should be in contention for a podium position.
8 points each way Lando Norris Qatar Grand Prix at 12/1 1/3 1,2 with Bet365, Bet Victor and Entain brands
Green Shoots
This Rugby World Cup has been a showcase of the potential among many so-called ‘Tier 2’ countries. Chile qualified for the first time and fellow South American side Uruguay pushed hosts France to the brink with a fine performance. Portugal gave Wales a major fright showing attacking ambition as well as organisation and resilience and went on to draw with higher-ranked Georgia.
In 2026 the Nations Championship will be launched with the intention of providing a meaningful narrative for Test fixtures outside of World Cup and Lions-tour years. However the event will feature only the Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams plus Japan and Fiji. There is no place for Teams like Samoa and Georgia and the tournament has no promotion and relegation until at least 2030.
Some of the excluded teams outside the top tier establishment are not excluded on merit, several teams are higher in the World rankings than both Italy (12th) and Japan (14th) for example.
The proposal to ring-fence the Tier one teams seems like a backward move in the context of growing the game globally where there are green shoots everywhere but in danger of them not being developed.
The likes of Georgia, Portugal and Uruguay should be given a shot at improvement. The USA at least have a home World Cup in 2031, while the game would benefit from funding to help struggling Canada and Romania. Brazil are another country with massive rugby potential.
World Rugby have funded the development of the Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika teams in Super Rugby and we can see Fijian rugby has taken a big step forward in this world Cup.
In Europe the big issue is the closed shop of the Six Nations where nothing is done to jeopardise the familiar format which accounts for so much of the participants annual P and Ls. It is a blockbuster event every year but having that as a ring-fenced tournament stifles growth elsewhere in Europe.
As Georgia have found over many years there is no space to increase the size of the Six Nations without a merit-based system to do so. At the very least, a play-off system between the wooden spoon team and the winners of the second-tier Rugby Europe Championship would be progress.
Italy’s experience is that entry into the tournament is no guarantee of success but the Six Nations funding has enabled an academy system to eventually flourish and that talent is now reaching an exciting first team with improving performances.
European rugby is reaching a crossroads. It is genuinely two tier and not the lead part of a vibrant, thriving, expanding global game, which is encouraging a sustained push into new territories. There is enormous potential to grow in Continental Europe currently hindered by a glass ceiling. A Nations Championship which locks out so much potential is not the answer.
Whilst the Northern Hemisphere Autumn Internationals see the major Tier One teams invited this is because they are a cash cow for the home nations, we shouldn’t expect Tier two teams to be invited to these fixtures ahead of New Zealand and South Africa.
Smaller teams need the context of big tournaments to sell. Instead World Rugby has created a mid-world cup cycle big tournament for big teams only and excluded smaller teams only playing them in friendlies.
Most fans would I think like to see more involvement of Tier Two teams in big games. One partial solution might be the suggestion of an increase in the number of World Cup teams for 2027 onwards to 24. Fiji’s win over Australia and South Africa’s ongoing absence from the competition also must push the Pacific Islands teams into the conversation for inclusion in the Rugby Championship.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th September-1st October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket, Wolverhampton and York
- Football, the Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues.
- NFL, the new season continues, week 4.
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup begins in India next week.
- Tennis ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters.
- Golf the Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour
The Cricket World Cup
The 2023 Cricket World Cup starts next week running until 19th November. We’ll have full coverage of the tournament including the outright and props markets ante-post and each match through to the final. The cost of the package is £50 and you can sign up here
Free Tip
India v England Cricket World Cup Warm Up Match, Saturday 9.30am BST start
With the Cricket World Cup starting next week England have two warm up matches in Guwahati, North East India (had to google ecactly where it was!) tomorrow and then on Monday, firstly against World Cup favourites India and then Bangladesh.
England flew from London on Thursday all smiles on social media turning left on their plane for the long flight. 38 hours later they arrived in Guwahati, with Jonny Bairstow for example posting publically that the flights/onward travel had been "utter chaos". Less than 24 hours later they take the field against India. Not ideal. India arrived, apparently without incident, the day before.
India should be favourites anyway, they've just come off a 2-1 warm-up series win against Australia at home and it would be unreasonable to expect England to be at full pelt for this. The main aim must be to avoid injuries whilst they adjust to Asian conditions.
India are 8/11 to win in two places, 4/6 generally. I suggest they should be shorter, warm up game or not, in these circumstances.
22 points India to win at 8/11 Betfred and Skybet, 4/6 generally
The death of the deep ball?
Patrick Mahomes’ longest completion in the Super Bowl was 22 yards by Travis Kelce, a pass that went 14 yards through the air and had 8 yards after the catch and Mahomes attempted only four passes over 15 yards in the entire match. In his first Super Bowl appearance three seasons earlier, he attempted twice as many of those passes.
In the interim between the two games defense had adjusted to his skill and began to make him face deep coverages, forcing Mahomes to take shorter options to move the ball down the field.
This mirrors a league-wide trend that last season saw the fewest number of deep balls attempted, passes travelling at least 15 yards since 2006.
When quarterbacks did air it out they were successful. Completion percentages on those attempts of at least 15 yards downfield was 45% the second-highest completion percentage in a single season since 2006.
The trend continued through the first two weeks of the 2023 regular season too. Both air yards per attempt and number of passes attempted of more than 20 air yards were lower than the 2022 averages. Just 9% of all passes attempted were deep balls, down from 10.4% in Week 1 of 2022.
Two reasons are put forward for this change in the game. Firstly defenses are using more “two-high looks” putting two safeties back deep and making it more difficult for receivers to get open on the vertical routes. Secondly in 2006, about 43.5% of the passing yards generated by offenses were produced by receivers after catching the football. By 2022, that mark was north of 50%. The most notable example of this is Tyreek Hill.
In response to the deeper defenses NFL teams have been drafting smaller, very quick receivers that can get up to full speed very quickly, receive short passes and out-run defenses after the catch, a trend that has come to the NFL from college football.
The NFL is cyclical. An offensive concept rises up through the levels of football, NFL defenses adapt to it and take it away, offenses find a new answer and so on, At some stage defenses will react to the smaller, faster receivers on the field and at that point the deep ball will open up again. For all teams it’s about being ahead of the curve.
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Betting Emporium results
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
Weekend of 23rd-24th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket, Wolverhampton and York
- Football, the Premier League matches include Arsenal v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues.
- NFL, the new season continues, week 3.
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Astana and China Opens.
- Golf the Ryder Cup next week in Italy
The Cricket World Cup
The 2023 Cricket World Cup is to be held in India starting on 5th October and running until 19th November. We’ll have full coverage of the tournament including the outright and props markets ante-post and each match through to the final. The cost of the package is £50 and you can sign up here
Free Tip
Cricket England v Ireland 2nd ODI at Trent Bridge 11am Saturday
The first match of the series on Wednesday at Headingley was rained off, so it’s now a two-match series starting at Trent Bridge on Saturday.
England’s squad for the series consists almost totally of players not selected in England’s World Cup Squad though squads can be changed up until September 28, two days after the culmination of England series against Ireland. Joe Root was at short notice inserted into this squad at his request to play the first game of the series and Harry Brook, added to the World cup squad at the expense of Jason Roy, was removed from this series. Root will now rest ahead of the World Cup which is a bit frustrating for him as he was seeking some touch in the format. Since the 2019 World Cup Final he has only batted in 16 ODIs with just three 50s and no hundreds.
A complication is that the Ireland series is a direct clash with the final two rounds of the County Championship. In a statement accompanying the squad announcement, the ECB said: “The England Men’s selection panel consulted with the first-class counties and weighed their ambitions in the run-in to the end of the LV= Insurance County Championship season, before finalising the squad.”
Captain of this squad Zak Crawley has long been touted as a white-ball player given his attacking style and high strike rate in the red ball game but largely due to commitments with the Test squad he has found his chances in limited overs cricket restricted at domestic, franchise and international level. After impressing at the top of the order in the Covid-affected series against Pakistan two years ago, Crawley now has another chance to press forward his white-ball case. The two first choice openers in England’s 2023 World Cup squad Bairstow and Malan are unlikely to make the 2027 tournament and there are gaps in the England top order that will need filling sooner or later.
There is no obvious successor to Ben Stokes in the Test set-up, nor is there an obvious long-term successor to Jos Buttler in the limited-overs teams. In this low-key end-of-term affair Crawley will have three major opportunities to make what has already been a very good summer for him on a personal level even better.
Given the context that this is a squad of players not going to India for the World Cup it is an extremely strong squad. Crawley and Duckett are fresh off the back of good Ashes campaigns, Jacks is one of the most sought-after franchise players in the world, and 19-year-old Rehan Ahmed is an exciting prospect.
In Carse, Wood and newbie Scrimshaw, there are three quicks capable of touching 90mph and that’s before you get to Potts a bowler with a decent England record.
The identity of the two uncapped batters Smith and Hain is perhaps most revealing: both are high-class players who, in any previous era, would surely have been capped in one format or another by now.
The England top batsman market is as follows: Salt 100/30, Crawley 7/2, Jacks 4/1, Duckett 5/1, Jamie Smith 8/1 and Hain 9/1
Unlike some England batting orders through this summer the line up doesn’t have a lot of late order depth and has two debutants. In Crawley’s form this summer, with the opportunity to open the batting and get in first against weaker opponents he is a solid prospect to top score.
10 points Zak Crawley top England run scorer at 7/2 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power and 3/1 Coral/Ladbrokes
Red or Green?
There’s many a way to pass a message onto the rugby field these days. Ear-pieces, water carriers and plain old shouting to name a few. Gone are the days at the top level where a decision is solely the captain’s to make. But the South Africa coaches had a unique approach in their first rugby world cup match against Scotland utilising traffic light signals to influence the team’s decision-making on the field.
When the Springboks were awarded a first-half penalty in a good attacking position the TV cameras panned to the South Africa coaching box where an assistant raised a red traffic light. South Africa fly-half Manie Libbok then pointed to the posts to indicate he wanted to have a shot at goal.
Libbok slotted the three points, having missed an earlier attempt with much made about his fluctuating fortunes off the tee. However, the use of the light certainly caught the eye with the red signal clearly meant to inform on-field captain Siya Kolisi that the powers that be wanted him to take the points on offer.
While for the majority of the Rugby World Cup 2023 viewers watching around the world, it may have been the first time they’d seen this unique tactic it is said to be an Erasmus favourite. When he was the Cheetahs coach he once flashed lights from the roof of the Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein.
The use of the light caused a stir on social media and divided opinion. Some onlookers thought it was effective communication and a smart ploy while others were not so impressed. After the game when questioned about the tactic, South Africa head coach Jacques Nienaber revealed they use it because crowd noise often makes it hard to be heard.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16-17th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh.
- Football, the Premier League returns including West Ham United v Manchester City.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues.
- NFL, the new season continues, week 2.
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
- Cricket, the Metro Bank One Day Cup final, Leicestershire v Hampshire.
- Tennis ATP Opens in Zhuhai and Chengdu and the Rogers Cup.
- Golf the French Open on the DP World Tour
The Cricket World Cup
The 2023 Cricket World Cup is to be held in India starting on 5th October and running until 19th November. We’ll have full coverage of the tournament including the outright and props markets ante-post and each match through to the final. The cost of the package is £50 and you can sign up here
Free Tip
Cricket Metro Bank One Day Cup Final Leicestershire v Hampshire at Trent Bridge, Saturday 11am
A victim of the crowded domestic cricket schedule this 50 over competition has taken back seat in terms of profile for the last three years running concurrently with the Hundred during August. Every county side lost players to the new franchises, though sides were affected to different degrees. For example Hampshire reached the knockout stages and then onto the final having lost 10 players to the 100. They are all now available for the final and understandably enough they are odds-on favourites for the final.
In contrast Leicestershire, one of the smaller counties, lost only three players to the shorter competition. One of those, spinner Rehan Ahmed is still away, this time with England for their ODI series against Ireland next week. In addition Australian wicketkeeper-batsman Peter Handscomb is absent, back home preparing for the domestic season.
With Leicestershire essentially playing a first XI through he pool stages against opponents playing a few first team players but mostly Second XI and fringe players they won 7 out of 8 pool games and then best Gloucestershire (another side hardly affected by the Hundred) in the semi-finals.
Hampshire’s achievement in also winning 7 out of 8 pool matches was arguably more admirable, they then beat Warwickshire in the semi-final with returning from the Hundred Liam Dawson taking 7 for 15.
Now Leicestershire’s squad advantage from earlier in this competition has disappeared but they have two things in their favour.
Firstly, change has been afoot. They’ve won no trophy for 38 years and earlier this summer after just two wins from 14 matches in the T20 Blast head coach Paul Nixon departed in unexplained but plainly acrimonious circumstances. Since then the club has blooded younger players. Progress has been seen in the County Championship where the side sits third in division two and with an outside chance of promotion as we reach the final matches of the season. In the One Day Cup they’ve compiled some big scores. I watched them chase down 325 to beat Surrey with 46 balls to spare at The Oval and they compiled 298 to beat this weekend’s opponents Hampshire at Southampton.
In the bowling ranks Chris Wright (16 wickets) and South African All-rounder Wiaan Mulder (12 wickets) have been mainstays but there have been eye-catching contributions from younger players such as Tom Scriven (14 wickets) and Josh Hull an 18 year old left arm quick with 15 wickets. Definitely one for the notebook, a tall and fast bowler for the future.
Secondly the weather forecast for this weekend in Nottingham is decidedly mixed with some rain forecast. If the match is affected and Duckworth-Lewis were come into play this becomes much more of a “toss game” than it would be in good conditions, as the formula very much favours sides batting second. Either of these sides would be favourites winning the toss in that scenario.
In these circumstances, I am going to take the underdog.
12 points Leicestershire to win the One Day Cup Final at 6/5 Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
Tank
As the Arizona Cardinals tank without admitting that they’re tanking they have another way to position themselves for the next stage of their rebuild from 2024 onwards.
They have a legitimate business reason for keeping their best player off the field for the entirety of the new season. Franchise Quarterback Kyler Murray is currently on the “Physically Unable to Perform” list and will miss the first four games of the season at minimum after tearing his ACL in Week 14 of last year. He has millions in injury guarantees that become fully guaranteed this year and next. If a player can’t pass a physical on the date the guarantees convert, the team cannot avoid the financial commitment.
The Cardinals are under the new guidance of head coach and general manager and have already demonstrated they're not afraid to cut ties if needed, as players such as DeAndre Hopkins and Isaiah Simmons a first round draft pick two years ago are off the roster. If the Cardinals are contemplating a future without the first pick in the 2019 draft, it makes good business sense to keep him on the PUP list not just for the first four weeks but for the entire 2023 season. The current contract pays him $56m but rises to $92m if he plays again and is re-injured.
In those circumstances there has to be a doubt that Murray will on the field this year and whether the Cardinals would fully guarantee a contract for a player that might not be in their plans moving forward. Keeping Murray on the PUP list also has the important added benefit of keeping new nack up Josh Dobbs at quarterback, increasing the chances that the Cardinals fall to the bottom of the standings and rise to the top of the 2024 draft order. The 2024 draft has several top Quarterback prospects, notably Heisman trophy winner USC’s Caleb Williams and a brilliant young wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jnr.
Finally, another team might trade for Murray at the end of the year. NFL teams can be desperate for a quarterback, there simply aren’t enough of sufficient quality for all 32 and the trade compensation back to the Cardinals might be better if he’s traded on a lower value contract.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
