Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th November

Posted on 6 Nov 2020 09:23 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Doncaster and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wolverhampton
  • Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool. The FA Cup First Round
  • Tennis, ATP Sofia Open
  • Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA and the Cyprus Showdown on the European Tour.
  • Cricket, the IPL play-offs

Free tip

FA Cup first round Boreham Wood v Southend United

Borehamwood were 5th in the National League last season and five games into this one are 12th with two wins and a draw. In terms of a draw against a league side, a home tie against the side bottom of Division two is as good as it gets.

Southend United survived their latest HMRC winding up order last week. Last season they were relegated from League one with 4 wins in 35 games, sacked Sol Campbell at season end and so far this season have two draws, no wins, in ten games having scored just five goals and conceded 22. With matters so uncertain off the field, there has been a persistent recent history of late paying staff and players for example, Mark Molesey the former Weymouth manager was appointed on a three year contract to what undoubtedly is a very tough job.

When looking at the first round ties and compiling a short-list of possible bets with prices up early in the week I trawl the local press for a sense of performances and progress if any. Here’s a comment from Southend that was typical after another defeat last Saturday

“More evidence of how far behind we are in this League, it's desperate now. We make basic errors, we lack confidence and we are devoid of any real quality. We also have zero goal threat. Two points from seven League games in October says it all.”

In terms of prices, Borehamwood are available at either side of odds against for the game. It looked a stand out bet from the 40 first round ties

10 points Borehamwood to beat Southend at Evens Bet365, 19/20 elsewhere


The 2021 Big Bash

The maximum number of overseas players allowed in a Big Bash team has been increased to three.

Until now, clubs have been permitted to field two at a time, with opposition from the Australian Cricketers’ Association against an increase previously centred around the impact on local players who would miss out.

However, with inflated Test squads likely due to necessities related to the coronavirus pandemic, the addition of a third overseas slot help with availability issues for domestic players.

Meanwhile batsman Steve Smith has ruled out participating in the Big Bash League this season, saying that continuing to play in bio-secure bubbles amid the COVID-19 pandemic will take a toll on his mental health.

Smith has already experienced life in different bubbles, first when the Australian T20 squad toured England and now with the Rajasthan Royals in the ongoing IPL which is being played in the United Arab Emirates.

The Big Bash League is set to start in December and run till February, with Australia’s national-team players expected to play for their domestic sides in the latter stages after India’s tour of Australia which will also be played in bio-secure bubbles.

"I'll be honest with you, absolutely no chance," Smith was quoted as saying “There’s an uncertainty there. It’s just going to be about having open conversations with coaches, general managers, whoever, to ensure that people are keeping their head space in a reasonable place

In terms of English players Jason Roy became the latest player to sign up as an overseas player, following Liam Livingstone in joining Perth Scorchers. Dawid Malan, meanwhile, will represent Hobart Hurricanes, with Alex Hales, Tom Banton and Tom Curran at Sydney Thunder, Brisbane Heat and Sydney Sixers respectively.

 


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The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st October -1st November

Posted on 30 Oct 2020 11:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Newmarket and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby
  • Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Arsenal
  • Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters
  • Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA and the Cyprus Open on the European Tour.
  • Formula One, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola
  • Rugby Union, the final games of the 2020 Six Nations
  • Cricket, the IPL continues

Free tip

Neil Channing, the US election

It's very nearly time for the thing we've been talking about all year so I guess we should have a bet on it. It's not the Sports Personality of the Year but the US election where I have had a few bets and I have quite strong views. Firstly I should start by saying, that as with all political bets, my political views will not be a factor and I will only consider what I think about the prices and the value. I actually dislike both the major American parties enormously and think they would have struggled to pick two worst candidates but that shouldn't concern us.

 For those who don't follow it carefully US elections are a series of 51 contests settled on a first past the post system...if you get most votes in North Dakota you win North Dakota. The states all carry points or "Electoral College Votes" so the ones with bigger populations are worth more. North Dakota is worth just three ECVs which is the minimum and California gets the maximum of 55. This system gives a slight advantage to candidates who do well in rural areas with small populations which is why Donald Trump is president despite getting millions of votes less than Hillary Clinton.

 Bookmakers are offering bets on every state but many, like North Dakota, are very one sided...the Repulblicans are 1/50 in that one. We cannot link up all those heavy odds on chances in multiples as they are heavily correlated. If we knew that the Republicans had won the very hard to predict state of Florida then they will probably have had a good night and won Texas so you can't do a double the two. That makes it quite hard to find bets at prices bigger than 1/3 that have a good chance of winning. There are just six states where neither party is 1/3 or shorter and some, like Florida, are really hard to predict.

 Another factor we must consider when betting is not really emphasised enough by the media in my opinion.

 This election starts on Tuesday is something you'll hear and while that is polling day, many states have early voting and all give you the chance to use an absentee ballot. With a global pandemic, and the thought of queueing for five or six hours to vote, many more people will take these options this time round and they have been for over a week now. This is very much an "in-running" betting event and 79 million people, which is 57% of the people who voted in 2016, have already done their vote. A lot of media people will talk about stuff Trump says in the last few days and how that might swing things but for most people it's too late now and they have made their decision.

 The state I want to bet on is Iowa. This state voted Republican throughout the 70s under Nixon, Ford and Reagan but it switched to the Democrats in 1988 when it voted for Michael Dukakis and it stuck with them under Bill Clinton both times and then Al Gore. George W Bush won by just under 0.7% in 2004 before Obama turned it blue again with two comfortable wins. It looks to me like Trump beating Hillary by 10% here was against the trend of the political allegiance of this state. She lost here, as in many other places, by not getting out her vote. Normally around 1.5 million people vote in this state but she only got 653,000 which is how many Al Gore won with when the total number voting was under 1.3 million. As of yesterday 851,000 people had already voted here so it looks like turnout will be well up.

 In polling this year Trump won in 29 and Biden 6 carried out between January and September. In October though there have been 17 polls and Biden has won in eight, Trump in seven and two ties. The biggest leads have been Biden by four and Trump by seven. The analyst Nate Silver makes it the closest state that Trump will win and predicts 49.7% to Trump and 49% to Biden. I think he's definitely right that it will be close.

 The early voting sees a lead of 47.9 vs 32.5 to Biden amongst voters who are registered as supporters of either party that have already voted. That is to say that 407,000 of the people who have already voted are known Democrats while 276,000 are known Republicans. 163,000 people that have voted are not known to be aligned to one party or the other and they are 19% of those that have already voted. It's hard to predict where they will go but I think we can assume a close split betwen them as this is a close state. What we do know is that Republican voters are way more likely to wait until the day and Democrats are much more likely to vote early. This is a 400 metre race where we are yet to see the staggered start unwind. It's definitely hard to predict this race but the one thing we can be sure of is that it will be really close.

 In the nationwide betting on who will be president Biden is 1/2 despite polls suggesting that a price of 1/5 or shorter might be more accurate. National polling doesn't account for the key local races which might be closer and it's true that Biden could pile up "wasted" votes in California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey while losing places like Iowa, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina by small margins. If the national polling is even slightly more uniform though there is the potential for a really big landslide win and in that situation he would win Iowa.

 The betting has this one at roughly 57/43 on exchanges and the bookies are 60/40 in places. It just seems like a coinflip to me.

 I'm having 16 Points Democrats to win Iowa at 6/4 with Betfred and Sky Bet (would happily take 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and Ladbrokes).


The 2021 Cricket Programme

The First-Class Counties have agreed to a revised structure for the 2021 men’s first-class season with the return of the County Championship in a group-stage format. The men’s first-class season ends with a five-day Lord’s final to win the Bob Willis Trophy.

Essex will seek to defend both titles after the county won the 2019 County Championship and this summer’s Bob Willis Trophy final at Lord’s.

This follows discussions between the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) and First-Class Counties to help restart the County Championship, whilst mitigating against the impact of COVID-19 next summer. The agreed revised structure is for the 2021 men’s first-class season only. The 18 First-Class Counties will play 14 County Championship matches each next summer across Group and Division stages.

Each First-Class County has initially been placed into one of three seeded groups of six and will be scheduled to play five home matches and five away matches during the Group stage.

The top two counties in each group, at the end of the Group stage, will progress to Division One, with the other counties moving into Divisions Two and Three, where they will each play a further four matches.

The winner of Division One will be crowned the 2021 County Championship winners.

The top two teams in Division One will also earn the right to play in the Bob Willis Trophy final at Lord’s.

Seedings for the Group Stage of the 2021 County Championship have been determined based on performances of the First-Class Counties during the 2019 County Championship and the 2020 Bob Willis Trophy.

A provision to accommodate derby matches, only where appropriate within the seeding structure, into the groups has also ensured that county members and supporters can look forward to some of county cricket’s oldest rivalries resuming home and away next summer.

2021 County Championship groups

Group 1: Essex, Warwickshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Worcestershire, Durham

Group 2: Somerset, Hampshire, Surrey, Gloucestershire, Middlesex, Leicestershire

Group 3: Kent, Yorkshire, Lancashire, Northamptonshire, Glamorgan, Sussex


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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase

The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th October

Posted on 23 Oct 2020 09:08 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Doncaster, Newbury and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso
  • Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Chelsea
  • Tennis, ATP bett1Hulks Championship in Cologne
  • Golf, the ZOZO Championship in Japan on the USPGA and the Italian Open on the European Tour.
  • Formula One, the Portuguese Grand Prix at Portimao
  • Rugby Union, the return of the Six Nations, Ireland v Italy in Dublin which was postponed in March
  • Cricket, the IPL continues

Free tip

The IPL KKR v Delhi Capitals 11am Saturday Abu Dhabi

In midweek both teams lost, a rare reverse for Delhi who are top of the league table after ten games with seven wins. KKR meanwhile with five wins and five losses sit fourth, currently in a qualification spot

Delhi’s strong form this season has been built on several key players. Kagiso Rabada is the top wicket taker in the competition with 21, 5 clear of Shami, and has taken his wickets at a miserly strike rate of 11.3 also the best in the competition. Hostile and consistent he is the elading player across any side so far

Delhi also have a pair of openers that have combined to be match winners. Shikhar Dhawan has 459 runs in 10 matches with two hundreds and two fifties at an average of 66 and a strike rate of just under 150. Dhawan has now scored 300+ runs in a season in 11 out of the 13 IPL editions.

His younger partner Shreyas Iyer has 335 runs at an average of 37 with two fifties. Iyer made headlines when Delhi Daredevils bought him at the 2015 IPL auction for a huge price and opening the batting, he aggregated 439 runs from 14 matches and went on to win the IPL emerging player of the year award. Since then he has been involved in 40 ODIs and T20Is and averages over 50 in first class cricket

Both players could go well against a KKR attack minus Sunil Narine and reliant on Lockie Ferguson and Pat Cummins up front. In the top Delhi batsman market prices are more compressed than I expected:

Dhawan 5/2

Iyer 3/1

Shaw 7/2

Pant 4/1

Rahane 9/2

Carey 9/2

Stoinis 7/1

Dhawan has been in such form that he has more than double the runs of any other Delhi batsman this season bar Iyer.

10 points Shikhar Dhawan Top Delhi Capitals batsman v KKR at 5/2 with William Hill


SA Rugby Championship

South Africa will not defend their rugby Championship in Australia in the coming weeks after withdrawing from the competition.

The Springboks squad was due to depart Johannesburg last weekend but government regualtions regarding the Covid-19 pandemic meant it was “unclear whether the team would legally be able to depart” according to SA Rugby.

There are also player welfare concerns given that they have not played a Test match since beating England in last year’s World Cup final and their top South Africa-based players have only recently returned to action.

South Africa were due to play Argentina in their opening game on 7 November, but now the Pumas, All Blacks and Wallabies will play a Tri-Nations tournament. with the Wallabies and All Blacks playing back-to-back on 31 October and 7 November to start the tournament. These will double up as the final two Bledisloe Cup matches. The Pumas, who have already arrived in Australia to go through the necessary quarantine procedures, will have two bye weekends at the start and then be involved in the subsequent four matches

An added complication is the fact that South Africa’s overseas-based players such as Faf de Klerk at Sale and Damian De Allende at Munster face different Covid restrictions. T

The other factor was the lack of rugby played by many of the squad. South Africa’s director of rugby Rassie Erasmus said: “We worked out that the players needed a minimum of 400 minutes of game time before they could be ready for a Test match. The overseas-based players had started playing before us and they would have been getting close to that time by 7 November. But many of those have completed their programmes or have had Covid outbreaks which has interrupted the planning. The Japanese-based players haven’t played any rugby at all, while the home-based players would be well short of 400 minutes by the time of kick off.”


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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th October

Posted on 16 Oct 2020 07:50 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Market Rasen and Stratford
  • Football, Premier League fixtures include Everton v Liverpool and Manchester City v Arsenal
  • Tennis, ATP European and Stockholm Opens start on Monday
  • Golf, the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek on the USPGA and the Scottish Open at St Andrews on the European Tour.
  • Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final between Exeter and Racing 92 on Saturday
  • Cricket, the IPL continues

Champions League 2020/21 Full Package by Brodders.

Outrights, previews, group stage, knockout stages and the final in May 2021 (125 games), the first report is out today. If you had bet £10 a point just on our Champions League bets you would have won £4697 with an ROI +3.41%. Get all the write ups and bets Oct 2020 - May 2021 for £199: here


Free tip

Exeter v Racing 92, European Champions Cup Final Ashton Gate, Bristol Saturday 4.45pm, Channel 4

Over the next two weekends Exeter Chiefs go for two titles, the European final this weekend then the Gallagher Premiership final against Wasps a week later

Exeter are the dominant team in English rugby, both in the domestic team and in European competition where they won five and drew one of their pool games and in the knockout stages overcame a fast start from Toulouse in their home semi-final. Exeter not only executed their trademark forward moves near the line but played some strike rugby from further out too.

Racing beat Saracens late on at home in their semi-final in what was possibly a kind draw as Saracens expended a lot of energy the week before in Dublin.

Since the semi-finals the two sides have had different preparations. Exeter, in the South West where COVID incidence is quite low, rested players before their semi-final last weekend with Bath and only have to travel up the road for this final

Racing meanwhile have had 9 cases of COVID in their training camp. Since the Saracens semi- final their training ground has been closed for five days during a complete decontamination where the players did nothing but isolate and they have been training in groups of four since. With two full weeks with disruptions, and a fringe team lost 30-24 to Toulouse last weekend. Travelling from Paris to Bristol of course isn’t an arduous trip but after a limited preparation its quite an ask to expect them to be at full gas.

Nonetheless Racing are an exciting team with the “x-factor” players of midfield pair Finn Russell and Virimi Vakatawa. In tandem they have the ability to conjure threats to Exeter but the English are so disciplined and well prepared that we have to expect them to win.

Exeter are 4-9 outright Racing 15/8, with Exeter -5 on the point spread. The winning margin marvet offers us some juice:

 10 Points Exeter to beat Racing92 by 1-12 points 13/8 Betfair Sportsbook 6/4 Betfred


The Big Picture

Project Big Picture, the brainchild of Liverpool and Manchester United included plans to reduce the Premier League to 18 teams, give greater power to the ‘big six’ and abolish the League Cup and Community Shield.

It also proposed EFL clubs will receive an immediate £250million rescue package and a 25 per cent future annual share of Premier League revenue.

EFL Chairman Rick Parry was one of the drivers behind the proposals and gave on the record support

“The proposal is designed for the greater good of English football.”

EFL clubs swung as a bloc behind Project Big Picture, despite concerns over a potential power shift at the top of the game.

The proposals included a revamp of the Premier League voting system, giving greater power to the nine longest-serving clubs, . with only the votes of six of those ‘long-term shareholders’ needed to make major changes. and abolishing the threshold of 14 votes to pass any resolution, which is likely to meet with opposition The Premier League has been governed by the one-club, one-vote rule but if this change is accepted power would shift to the big six of as well as Everton, Southampton and West Ham.

Also controversial was the proposed introduction of a relegation play-off for the 16th-placed Premier League club against clubs in third, fourth and fifth in the Championship even without the realistic possibility of four clubs being relegated in the changeover season bringing the top flight down to 18 members.

With government, Premier League and club opposition to the proposals as expected, it does return the onus on these stakeholders to accelerate their own EFL financial support plans, now at least six months in development and with no announcement in sight. There is much benefit in proposals for the EFL but the Big Six power grab will change the face of the Premier League and may lead to erosion of identity of EFL clubs by stealth.

Ultimately the Premier League clubs told Liverpool and United that the plan, was a non-starter and that there was no prospect of them agreeing to the measures which abolished the one-club, one-vote democracy

The Premier League said: “Premier League Shareholders today unanimously agreed to work together as a 20-club collective on a strategic plan for the future structures and financing of English football. Premier League clubs also agreed that Project Big Picture will not be endorsed by the Premier League, any of its clubs or The FA.”

Subsequently Premier League clubs have agreed to conduct a strategy review involving all 20 clubs not just 2.


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Betting Emporium results

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 10-11th October

Posted on 9 Oct 2020 08:34 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Chelmsford City, Newmarket and York and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham
  • Football, England play Belgium in the UEFA Nations League
  • Formula One, the Eifel Grand Prix at the Nurburgring
  • Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open
  • Golf, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin on the USPGA and the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
  • Cricket, the IPL continues

Free tip

IPL Cricket Saturday 3pm CSK v RCB, Dubai

Winners of the IPL in 2018, runners up last year Chennai have made a slow start to this year’s IPL with just 2 wins from their first six matches after losing to KKR on Wednesday at the venue they will play RCB on Saturday. RCB, meanwhile, perennial under-achievers in the tournament despite star studded line-ups have won 3 games out of 5.

With the whole tournament taking place in the Middle East on slow pitches slow bowlers have come to the fore as expected. For CSK their leg spinner Piyush Chawla was their top wicket taker through the first five matches, six wickets had come at an average of 25.16, an economy rate of 8.88 and a strike rate of 17. It was a surprise to see him benched on Wednesday. Only two CSK bowlers had an economy rate of under 8, for example. Sam Curran now has 7 wickets opening the bowling in what has been an impressive season for him so far with bat and ball

Prior to joining CSK Chawla had picked up 66 wickets in 70 T20s at an average of 27.80, an economy rate of 8.22 and a strike rate of 20.30 during a six-year stint at KKR. I would expect him to return to the line up here, in part because amongst the RCB “big three” of Kohli, Finch and de Villiers Finch has a well known weakness against hr leg-spinner’s googly.

Because Chawla was left out last time, he’s available at a more than fair price in the Top CSK bowler market for this match. It’s a value opportunity

10 points Piyush Chawla Top CSK wicket taker at 9/2 with William Hill, 4/1 Betfred


End of an era

Honda, one of four F1 engine manufacturers has announced that they will leave the sport at the end of the 2021 season. This has obvious implications for their customers Red Bull and AlphaTauri, plus their drivers in particular Max Verstappen.

Covid-19 has put extreme pressure on global automotive businesses, making it increasingly difficult for the Honda board to continue to sanction significant funds being funnelled into F1. Despite the success Honda has enjoyed with Red Bull and AlphaTauri, including five wins, their motorsport team has consistently faced a battle with the manufacturer’s board to keep them involved in F1.

Red Bull has signed to remain in Formula 1 until at least the end of 2025 with both their works team and AlphaTauri. Under the current rules, Renault would be obliged to supply them and AlphaTauri with engines as they currently have the fewest customers. Red Bull would likely want to avoid a resumption of that relationship, while Renault won’t be enthusiastic either however there isn’t much time for Red Bull to encourage a new manufacturer into the sport in time for 2022.

The big global car groups like Mercedes and BMW have currently got to offer petrol, diesel, hybrid and electric cars, while they'll also be investing in fuel-cell technology. That's five completely different power sources. You can't imagine any other manufacturers wanting to join in with a super-expensive hybrid F1 engine now, it's not relevant to their future business models

That means for Red Bull it’s either Renault again or hope they can convince Ferrari or Mercedes to supply them. Given they failed to persuade either of those two at the last attempt, it’s unlikely the outcome will be any different this time.

Max Verstappen meanwhile has already signed with Red Bull until the end of 2023.The prospect of a return to Renault, of whom he was critical during their time together, is not going to fill him with joy.


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase

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