Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25-26th September

Posted on 22 Sep 2021 10:46 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
  • Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Manchester City
  • Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v South Africa and Australia v Argentina
  • Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
  • Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
  • Golf, the Ryder Cup
  • Tennis, ATP Laver Cup and Sofia Open

Free tip

The Cambridgeshire Handicap Newmarket 3.35pm Saturday by Neil Channing

For a few years it looked like there was a big disadvantage to be drawn high in this race but the last five winners came from 28, 29, 21, 29 and 25 so we can throw that out of the window. Looking at the place horses the high numbers have also done better in the last five years. I don't think I'm going to be too dogmatic about the draw here but I'll lean towards high. I will narrow the field by avoiding those at bigger than 25/1 due to the danger of betting things at bigger prices known as the favourite/longshot bias. The idea here is that you'll lose your money more slowly if you randomly bet shorter priced things than longer priced as the prices are closer to the "real price" of things happening at the shorter end of the market. The exchange markets definitely understand this concept and they are happy to let things that the bookies make 33/1 go to 46.0 but the bookmakers can't follow as they are offering each-way terms that are "too generous" and would be hugely overbroke. What we need to do is find horses that are close to their Betfair price and benefit from the enhanced place terms that the bookies offer without betting at under the odds on the win. If we stick to shorter prices that will be much easier to do.

 
 Out of the 34 runners that gets us down to a more manageable ten and the next thing I want to do is to eliminate those that haven't tried a trip longer than a mile before as you really need to see out this specialist trip to win this tough handicap. As it happens all the horses at 25/1 and less have run over at least nine furlongs but I will rule out Magical Morning who has mostly run at a mile and in his one try at anything over that faded really badly late on over ten furlongs. Nine furlong races are slightly less rare than they used to be as Wolverhampton is slightly more than a mile, but it's still very much a specialist trip and generally I think you can have a horse that likes ten furlongs dropping down but you don't want one that likes a mile stepping up. If we look through the nine we have left you have five who have won over this trip and I think you can add Lucander, who was 2nd in this last year, and you have a nice shortlist...
 
 Uncle Bryn is drawn high in 30 and he has won over this nine furlongs. Before his win at Ascot last time at York he ran no race and was last over ten furlongs and before that he hated Epsom, so it's possibly hard to know what they have up their sleeve. I suspect a lot. His price went from 10/1 into 5/1 ante post but he has drifted back now, since Frankie went for his stablemate, and I make him a fair bet.
 
 Irish Admiral won over a mile last time and he has run over ten furlongs and won over this trp so that isn't a problem. He is drawn a little in the centre and that slightly worries me but he has a top jockey and is from a top yard.
 
 Astro King has definitely shown that he doesn't stay ten furlongs and he looks a bit of a miler to me plus Ryan Moore is not always your friend on these each-way type races. The draw in the centre and the pretty poor season the stable have had put me off.
 
 Majestic Dawn won this at 40/1 last year after coming last in his warm-up following almost a year off. He then had another year off and has run 3rd twice in his three warm-ups for this. Last year he wore blinkers for the first time and maybe that was his perfect storm. In a lot of races he has looked like he wants a bit further than this and maybe it will all happen too fast. He was winning off 94 last year and this will be a tough ask with ten pounds more.
 
 Lucander was 2nd last year off 98 and this year he has been pretty unlucky in a bunch of races where I have backed him and now he off 95. At Ascot he had a bad draw and the jockey crossed to the unfavoured far side and that was his race gone, at York he clipped heels and stumbled in the first two furlongs, at Goodwood the ground went horrible and he tried to come from too far back and last time at York he'd have won at this nine furlongs but faded over the ten. I think he is really well handicapped and he looks a great bet from his high draw.
 
 I'm having 12 Points each-way Lucander at 22/1 1/5th 1234567 with Hills and Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook (the 1/4 12345 is around equivalent with Bet365).
 
 I'm having 7 Points each-way Uncle Bryn at 7/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 or 7/1 1/5th 1234567 with Betfred.
 
 I'm having 6 Points each-way Irish Admiral at 20/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 or 20/1 1/5th 1234567 with Hills or Betfred.

 


Bubbling Over.

The cancellation of the fifth Test between England and India denied the series an end on the field after a chain of events that began when India head coach Ravi Shastri tested positive for Covid-19 during the fourth-Test, forcing three other staff members to isolate. When another member of the backroom team, a physio, tested positive on Thursday, India cancelled training and then the match two hours before the start of the first day.

India were 2-1 ahead in the series and whether or not they are ultimately deemed to have forfeited the match the cancellation has financial implications for the ECB, Old Trafford, broadcasters and sponsors, initially with full refunds for 80,000 spectators. A forfeiture would give England the match, a share of the series and World Test Championship points, to be ruled upon by the ICC.

The BCCI has offered to reschedule the match, although that is more likely to be a standalone Test, rather than the fifth match in this series. India are due back in the UK next summer for three Twenty20 and three one-day internationals.

The India players, along with some from England, left for the resumption of the IPL, the tournament having been postponed with rising coronavirus cases in India in May and it is widely felt that at least in part the Old Trafford postponement is connected to the IPL.

As for England, prospects for the winter’s Ashes series in Australia are uncertain. Some England players have indicated they may pull out of the tour if their families cannot join them in Australia. Australia has some of the strictest Covid-19 protocols in the world. The five Tests in December and January are due to be played in five states, each of which have their own rules, adding a further layer of complication.


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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 18th-19th September

Posted on 16 Sep 2021 08:21 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
  • Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
  • Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina in Perth
  • Cricket, T20 Blast finals Day at Edgbaston
  • Tennis, ATP Moselle in Metz

Free tip

Cricket, T20 Blast finals Day

A rarity this year for finals day with all four teams coming out of the South Group. The semi final draw is as follows

Hampshire v Somerset 11am

Kent v Sussex 2.30pm

It’s a very competitive line up as evidenced by the prices in the winners market

Somerset 5/2

Sussex 5/2

Kent 11/4

Hampshire 3/1

A point to note that in mid-September, in a competition marginalised by the advent of the Hundred and squeezed into a late slot, weather problems are a probability which will increase results and toss variance.

What of the four teams? Kent won the South group, then comfortably beat Birmingham in the Quarter final. Hampshire crept into the Quarters in 4th place in the group then squeaked past Notts in a low scoring Quarter. Somerset beat Lancashire in a high scoring Quarter final in Taunton. Sussex made the quarter finals despite five no result matches in 14 group games then beat Yorkshire in the Quarter chasing 180 to win

I do like the look of Sussex, as they have all bases covered from Tymal Mills, recently restored to the England T20 team for the upcoming World Cup , with pace to Rashid Khan with leg spin and a high powered batting line up with hitters throughout.

Lots of variance around, but they are my idea of winners here

10 points Sussex to win the T20 blast at 5/2 generally

 


The Long Game

It is widely known that the Houston Texans have been  speaking with potential trade partners for quarterback Deshaun Watson and are speculated to have been offered a first-round draft pick, and a conditional pick that could turn into a first-round pick, which they turned down.

Meanwhile journeyman quarterback Tyrod Taylor has begun the season as the starter, with 47 starts in 10 NFL seasons. Watson, who has thrown more touchdown passes the last two seasons (59) than Taylor has thrown his entire career (54), is not going to play.

Watson is going to collect $10.54m in base salary this season, despite the fact he doesn’t ever want to play for the Texans and the Texans have no intention of ever letting him play for them. This all started last winter when national media first reported Watson wanted out of Houston for reasons related to his belief that Houston ownership had broken promises to him. A number of teams enquired about trading for him, unsurprisingly because Watson is a Top 10 NFL quarterback and only 26 years old.

Then Watson’s enormous legal problems came to light as a number of women asked Watson to pay damages for what they allege is improper sexual conduct during massage sessions. When Watson dismissed those claims as extortion, the women filed lawsuits. And the number of women doing so grew to 22 all alleging Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. Eight of those women plus two others who had not filed civil suits spoke to the Houston police and filed criminal complaints.

Despite charges and counter charges, the Texans spent part of the spring still not seriously engaging teams about a trade, although the Houston Chronicle was the first to report the team would require three first-round picks and two second-rounders to move Watson.

“That’s about right, but it’s a negotiation so we figured that would be the starting point,” the NFL source said. “We didn’t think they’d actually be serious about that price with all that’s hanging over his head.”

It seems everyone understands the legal resources make giving up the significant resources Houston wants for Watson currently impossible. It also seems Houston understands their desire to get top value in exchange for Watson is not currently possible. So the Texans are going to wait for the legal issues to be resolved, and play the long game.


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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th September

Posted on 9 Sep 2021 07:49 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and on the all-weather at Chelmsford
  • Football, Premier League matches include Leicester City v Manchester City and Leeds United v Liverpool
  • Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina in Perth
  • Cricket, the fifth Test match between England and India at Old Trafford
  • Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix
  • Golf, the Fortinet Championship on the USPGA and the Dutch Open on the European Tour.

Free tip

Italian Grand Prix, Sunday 2pm

Now into the second half of the F1 season with Verstappen and Hamilton in a tight battle at the top of the drivers Championship with Red Bull just having the edge on raw pace over Mercedes through most of the season.

In the “finish in the top 3” market prices are as follows

Hamilton and Verstappen 2/7

Bottas 8/11

Norris and Perez 5/2

Perez, Red Bull’s second driver, had a new engine fitted before the last race in Zandvoort and the team will have a pace advantage over over Mclaren (Norris, same price as Perez to podium) and an improving Ferrari, which generally performs better in slower corners. Monza however is all about engine power and straight line speed.

If we then look at the prices being offered for Bottas v Perez there is a big discrepancy. Bottas, now in his last year with Mercedes is consistent but lacks raw pace.

Perez has only 1 win and 1 podium in 13 races this season, a disappointing return in his first season at Red Bull, where he was brought in to support Verstappen and mount a two pronged attacked on Mercedes, but 5/2 looks a great value price here.

10 points Sergio Perez Top three finish Italian Grand Prix at 5/2 generally

 


Threading the Needle

Jacksonville Jaguars coach Urban Meyer ruffled some feathers last week with comments about vaccination status affecting roster decisions, and the team had to explain what their head coach really meant when he told the media that a player’s COVID vaccination status “was certainly in consideration” when the team were making decisions on roster cuts. 

The Jags released a statement that attempted to reframe Meyer's comments in a way that wouldn't get him in trouble

“Availability is one of the many factors taken into account when making roster decisions,” the team said in a general statement issued Wednesday morning, with no specific name attached to it. “We have vaccinated and unvaccinated players on our roster, and no player was released because of their vaccination status. Ultimately, decisions are based on a player’s ability to help the Jaguars win. We educate our players and respect personal decisions as it pertains to the vaccine. We want to keep our players, staff and families safe as we comply with protocols related to both health and safety and competition on game days.”

The agreed rules of the league and the union prevent teams from considering vaccination status when making employment decisions. However, those same rules also create a very strong incentive to shed players whose availability will be impacted by vaccination status. That’s the needle the Jaguars are now trying to thread, given Meyer’s remarks.

A month ago an NFL memo clubs that if a game cannot be rescheduled during the 18-week season in 2021 due to a COVID outbreak among unvaccinated players, the team with the outbreak will forfeit and be credited with a loss for playoff seeding and the team responsible for a canceled game because of an outbreak among unvaccinated players/staff will be responsible for financial losses and subject to potential discipline from the commissioner. The memo was widely interpretated as an attempt to strong arm players into vaccination

Unvaccinated players could be available far less over the course of the season due to the time they have to miss if they are exposed to COVID-19, test positive, or miss a day of their mandated daily testing. Vaccinated players miss far, far less time if they're exposed or test positive, and currently they're not required to be tested every day.

"Availability" is, at least in part, a fancy way to say "yes, we are considering vaccination status" without actually saying it. But Meyer didn't use those words. Instead, he said the quiet part aloud and admitted that he considered vaccination status. 

An NFLPA spokesperson meanwhile said that his union had opened an investigation into Meyer’s comments.

 


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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th September

Posted on 1 Sep 2021 14:13 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

 

  • Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford.
  • Football, World Cup Qualifying Matches
  • Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, Australia v New Zealand in Perth
  • Cricket, the fourth Test match between England and India at The Kia Oval
  • Formula One, the Dutch Grand Prix
  • Golf, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
  • Tennis, The US Open continues

NFL 2021 Regular season

The new season begins next Thursday. Weekly write ups throughout the seventeen week season

Read what to expect here

Sign up for the 17 week regular NFL season for just £50 here 

 


Free tip

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

It seemed like a forgone conclusion that Trevor Lawrence would be the first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft since he led Clemson to a national championship as a freshman back in 2018. As expected, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected him No. 1 overall, and now he heads into his debut season leading a deep crop of talented rookies and understandably Lawrence is favourite for the Offensive rookie of the year title in 2021, won last year by Justin Herbert of the Chargers

First some data:

Just three wide receivers have won the award over the last 22 seasons.

No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award.

Last season marked the first time since 2006 that a player from the AFC won the award.

Despite the profile and importance of the Quarterback position, four of the last eight winners have been running backs. As a general rule, it’s easier for a running back to have a rookie impact than it is a wide receiver.

That said, the current RedZoneSports ante- post market for this season has five Quarterbacks at the head of the market

Lawrence 7/2

Jones (Patriots) 6/1

Fields (Bears) 15/2

Lance (49ers) 15/2

Wilson (Jets) 15/2

Harris (Steelers running back) 17/2

Pitts (Falcons Tight End) 10/1

16/1 bar

Apart from Lawrence, named as the starter for week one onwards, each of Fields and Lance are unlikely to play 16 games with head coaches (rather conservatively) going with veteran Quarterbacks to start the season and that provides some of the value elsewhere in the market. Jones has seen his price halve after the release of Cam Newton at the Patriots and Wilson could be a very live play with the Jets investing in a number of skill position players alongside him my suggestion for value is Najee Harris the Steelers running back.

Pittsburgh understands that Roethlisberger, now a seventeen-year veteran, may no longer be capable of carrying an offense with his arm. Harris gives the Steelers a bruising three-down back that is going to get 400+ touches if he stays fit. Harris is a tenacious runner with good vision and the agility to make tacklers miss when needed. He should stack up rushing yardage, but his ability as a pass catcher and touchdown maker could be the difference if he is to win the award.

10 points Najee Harris Offensive Rookie of the Year 17/2 RedZoneSports


Revision

Queensland will host eight of the remaining Rugby Championship Tests after a Covid-enforced change to the schedule.

New Zealand and Australia are currently subject to lockdowns and the All Blacks cancelled two games including their Bledisloe Cup match in Perth.

But Queensland, largely free of coronavirus, has been deemed safe to host all four nations.

The new fixtures will be double-headers over four weekends from 12 September.

The Championship kicked off at Eden Park in New Zealand on 14 August, with the hosts thrashing the Wallabies 57-22.

South Africa then hosted two games against Argentina, winning both to top the table, before the competition was thrown into jeopardy as New Zealand's snap lockdown after a first COVID case in six months led to cancellations.

Three venues in Queensland will now stage the forthcoming rounds, except for the Australia-New Zealand game which is still set for Perth this coming weekend.

The Gold Coast will host New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa in a back-to-back double-header on 12 September in round three, as well as the round-six ties. The other rounds will be played in Brisbane and Townsville.


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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase

 

 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 28th-29th August

Posted on 26 Aug 2021 07:15 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

 

  • Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Goodwood, Newmarket, Redcar and Windsor and over the jumps at Cartmel.
  • Football, the Premier League matches include Manchester City v Arsenal and Liverpool v Chelsea
  • Cricket, the third Test match between England and India at Headingley
  • Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix
  • Golf, the Tour Championship at East Lake GC on the USPGA Tour and on the European Tour the Italian Open.
  • Tennis, The US Open begins

NFL 2021 Regular season

The new season begins on September 9th. Weekly write ups throughout the seventeen week season

Read what to expect here

Sign up for the 17 week regular NFL season for just £50 here 

 


Free tip

2021 NFL MVP

Ahead of the start of the NFL regular season a look at the ante-post market for NFL MVP, won in the last three years by 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers, 2019 MVP Patrick Mahomes and in 20218 Lamar Jackson. The last eight winners have been Quarterbacks, and 14 of the last fifteen too.

This year the head of the market shows as follows

Mahomes 9/2

Rodgers 10/1

Josh Allen 12/1

Last season Bills Quarterback Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting, albeit with only four of the 50 votes on a 13 win Bills team after a much improved performance in his third season in the NFL.

He had a completion percentage above 69%, threw for 4,544 yards, and ran for an additional 421 yards. Allen accounted for 37 passing, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving score. 69% represented a 10% increase in completion percentage.

For the new season Buffalo again look to be a Superbowl contender, currently 12/1 favourites. This is an award voted on by sports writers so to be in the hunt for MVP the team needs to be in the hunt for the title.

Last year the only thing that was holding Allen back from MVP was the turnover total. Aaron Rodgers only had four fumbles to Allen’s nine (understandable, as Allen rushing is a significant part of his offensive output) and five interceptions to Allen’s ten. Other than that, the numbers between the two quarterbacks are very similar. Rodgers actually threw and ran for fewer yards. However, a lower turnover rate, more total touchdowns, and a better completion percentage are likely the things that set Rodgers apart from Allen in the MVP race last year.

Allen has improved from a statistical, and decision-making standpoint in each year of his career. In 2021 can he do so again? I think so and he should be a live contender this coming season

10 points Josh Allen 2021 NFL MVP at 12/1 William Hill and RedZoneSports

 


Luxury

Uefa will set out proposals next month to replace its Financial Fair Play rules with a salary cap and luxury tax. Under the planned system clubs in European competition would be limited to spending a fixed percentage of their revenue on salaries. Any clubs breaching the cap would have to pay a luxury tax, under which the equivalent or more of any overspend would go into a pot to be redistributed. This would replace FFP which states that clubs must break even over a three-year period.

The plan is viewed as fairer and more transparent than the existing FFP system and would allow some scope for wealthy owners to spend beyond their club’s income, but only if they are willing to pay the luxury tax. Redistributing the money from salary-cap breaches to other clubs would also promote competitiveness, Uefa is expected to argue.

Under the existing system, clubs’ losses from as far back as four years ago can be used as part of the FFP calculation, something that has become almost unworkable after the financial impact of the pandemic on European football.

A constant criticism of FFP has been that it maintains the elite clubs’ position because owners of smaller clubs who are trying to reach the same level are not allowed to put in money to cover losses.

The salary cap as a percentage of revenue would potentially have a similar effect as those clubs with the bigger revenues can spend more on wages, but it would be more flexible and would at least allow owners to breach the cap if they were prepared to pay for it.


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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase

 

 

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