Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th August

Posted on 14 Aug 2020 08:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Chepstow, Newmarket, Newbury and Doncaster.
  • Football, Champions League Quarter finals
  • Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix
  • Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan in Southampton continues
  • Rugby Union, the return of the English Premiership tonight
  • Snooker, the final weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
  • Golf, the Wyndham Championship on the USPGA and the Celtric Classic on the European tour

York Ebor Festival - Full Package (19th - 22nd August 2020)

Neil Channing returns next week with race-by-race coverage of York’s Ebor festival. The cost for all the write ups is £99.99


NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)

Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%

 


Free tip

Worcester v Gloucester Saturday 3pm BTSport

The Gallagher Premiership returns this weekend as the teams play out the remainder of the season after a five month break, before the new season starts almost immediately.

Gloucester had been having a poor season winning only 4 of 13 games having made the play-offs last year. There has been an overhaul during the down-time with the coach, director of rugby and several players leaving. In their place a new coaching staff has arrived and new recruits include the England winger Johnny May returning to the club. A far more talented side than their results up to March suggested they lost a number of close games, such that their points difference is only -10 across the 13 games.

Worcester have an identical win-loss record, but points conceded exceed points scored by 99.  Perennial basement dwellers in the Premiership four wins is actually an improved performance but they are fortunate that Saracens’ relegation removes that risk for them.

Taking both sides fitness on trust in the first game back, Gloucester have a chance to make the most of their fresh start and show their superiority

11 points Gloucester -3 points to win at Worcester 10/11 generally


Non Stop

Premiership Rugby has confirmed that next season will finish on June 26th...which means requests from the British & Irish Lions, who conduct a ten match tour to current World Champions South Africa next summer, for extra preparation time were rejected (again). Players in this competition will have non-stop rugby from Aug 14th 2020 (the current season resumption) to Aug 7 2021 (the third Lions 3rd Test v South Africa)

This of course raises genuine concerns about player welfare for the top players who have to get through one and a third domestic seasons, the remainder of the 2020 six nations, the Champions cup last 8, autumn internationals, the 2021 Six Nations, the 2020-21 Champions Cup and then go to South Africa without a break. Deep breath!

One bright spot though is that this should not apply to the Saracens players.  Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Elliot Daly, Jamie George and the Vunipola brothers will arrive, injuries permitting, in Africa off a low workload. All six players mentioned would currently feature in most people's Lions Test Match 23.

As Saracens have been relegated into the Championship their international players and certainy Lions will go on tour with no more than 20 games played in the coming season with no European rugby and mainly Six Nation requirements.

In a season that could end up as with a very high rate of injuries and unavailability for the Lions with conflict between between country and club, Saracens players will at least be in a condition to fully contribute..

Not that South Africa have it that easy either. The (presumably full South Hemisphere competition) Super Rugby season starts next February and the Springboks will play from straight through from February to late November

A busy time to be an International rugby player, but an even busier time for their medical staff is likely.

 


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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th August

Posted on 7 Aug 2020 10:36 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing,  on the flat at Chester, Salisbury and Thirsk and over the jumps at Uttoxeter.
  • Football, Champions League last 16 matches continue
  • Formula One, the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone
  • Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan at Old Trafford continues
  • Snooker, the middle weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
  • Golf, The PGA Championship in San Francisco

York Ebor Festival (19th-22nd August)

Neil Channing returns with race-by-race coverage of York’s Ebor festival. The cost for all the write ups is £99.99


NFL 2020 (17 Week regular season)

Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with a ROI of +41.47% The cost for all the write ups is £50

 


Free tip

Super Rugby Aotearoa : Hurricanes v Chiefs, Saturday 8.05am

With two rounds of Super Rugby Aotearoa action remaining, a title winner could be decided as early as Sunday. The Crusaders need one win from their two remaining games to win the title. The Hurricanes, who started the season poorly are unlikely victors. They need Need to win their remaining two games, both with a bonus point and hope the Crusaders lose their final two games and furthermore hope the Blues win their final game without a bonus point, and then have a greater points difference

Hurricanes go into this game having won 4 in a row including their 34-32 win at the Crusaders as 13 point underdogs. The six point handicap line here looks low given the incentive (the Crusaders play on Sunday) to win with a bonus point to stay in contention for the title.

The Chiefs have lost 8 games on the spin under Warren Gatland and all seven in Super Rugby this season. There has been criticism that Gatland, who left Wales to go back to New Zealand, for taking a year-long sabbatical to coach the Lions next year. There have also been concerns that the Northern Hemisphere styles and methods he has brought back haven’t suited his squad. Whether this is valid or not results have been poor. The Hurricanes beat the Cheifs 26-18 in Hamilton in week 4 and now host them in Wellington looking for a good victory to kepe the pressure on

22 points Hurricanes -6 evens Betfred and 10/11 generally


Trading Places

In the first seven years of the current NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that is due to be replaced next year,  just eight players, and six non-quarterbacks, were traded for first-round picks. Now nine have taken place in the last 20 months with the trade of the Jets star safety  Jamal Adams to the Seawhawks for multiple draft picks. This is despite the uncertainy COVID brings for potential impact on salary cap in 2021, with league revenues set to decline this year and there is still a willingness for teams who see themselves in contention to look for blockbuster trades with teams who might be in a rebuilding phases.

The fact that trades became more prevalent in the latter years of the current collective bargaining agreement should not be a surprise. As teams grew more and more familiar with the rules of the league's economic system, some of them began to structure contracts in ways that allowed for more flexibility. Over and above this the growth in analytics has led to a greater understanding of, what type of player you get at various draft picks and particularly for teams trading near the end of the first round it can be better to acquire the known commodity rather than unknown. Draft picks can take time to pan out, and this is time that coaches and general managers often don’t have in the modern NFL where future draft picks might be someone else’s to use.

Trading offers other advantages not just against draft picks but also against free agency as a player-acquisition method. In some cases, it offers cost certainty rather than having to outbid another team for a similar player down the line, a trade allows you to secure a player on a known contract for a known price


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd August

Posted on 30 Jul 2020 13:34 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, the final day of the Goodwood Festival
  • Football, the FA Cup final between Arsenal and Chelsea
  • Formula One, the British Grand Prix
  • Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan at Old Trafford begins on Wednesday
  • Snooker, the first weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
  • Golf, The WGC-Fedex St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind

Free tip

First Round World Snooker Championship Barry Hawkins v Alexander Ursenbacher

We’ve heard it all before, that Crucible debutants find it tough on their first tie on the big stage. There are grounds for suspecting that Switzerland’s Alexander Ursenbacher is cut from a different cloth though. He relishes the big match occasion, and his game improves on the TV tables. He has beaten O’Sullivan in 2019 and in the qualifiers, on the featured table, deservedly beat last season’s World Semi-Finalist Gary Wilson 6-3. He is a very attacking player, and if he has a weakness its that sometimes he could rein that back in when the situation demands it, but here he has been handed a winnable first round match. Perhaps anyway, with only a limited crowd in attendance this year, it won’t be quite the intimidating atmosphere that many first timers experience.

We know that Hawkins has a superb Crucible record, for six years between 2012-18 he made two finals, three semis and a quarter final. However he is now ranked 15th for this event and 20th on the provisional rankings. In most years between 5-7 seeds lose in the first round, and I could make the case that with the seeds having so little competitive play this season (a Championship league is all those who did not qualify for the tour championships have had) that the risk against qualifiers who have played in some cases three qualifying matches over the past week is greater this year. Ursenbacher for example played 34 frames in three qualifying matches. Hawkins last played competitively in Gibraltar in March.

The match is played on 4th-5th August

10 points Alexander Ursenbacher to beat Barry Hawkins at 3/1 with Betfred  and Bet365


Domestic cricket is back

A shortened 2020 county cricket season starts this weekend. Counties have been split into three regions and will play five games in a shortened first-class tournament, the Bob Willis Trophy. The regional split, chosen to reduce travel for the teams, is as follows:

Central group: Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Somerset, Glamorgan, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire

North group: Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Durham, Yorkshire, Leicestershire, Lancashire

South group: Essex, Kent, Surrey, Middlesex, Sussex, Hampshire

As well as the Bob Willis Trophy, there will also be a shortened T20 Blast competition beginning on 27th August.

In the Bob Willis Trophy, the two group winners with the most points will meet in a five-day final, potentially at Lords. Results in the Bob Willis Trophy will not determine which divisions counties play in next summer, with no relegation or promotion this year.

Eight points will be awarded for drawn matches, up from the current five points, while all other scoring remains unchanged. In a bid to reduce injury risk, there will be a minimum of 90 overs of play each day, down from 96. First innings can last no more than 120 overs per side, while the follow-on has been increased from 150 to 200 runs.The new ball will be available after 90 overs, 10 overs later than normal.

An ante-post market has gone up this week and its 7/1 the field, and its a trcky betting heat over group phases wit only five matches per team with no doubt weather variance coming into play. The South Group in particular is very hard to predict as four previous division one teams reside in the SOuth of England the other two groups look less competitive and a winners short-list should probably be Somerset, Warwickshire and Lancashire. Lancashire at 10/1 would be my view if asked, but the main thing for us cricketing dinosaurs is that the county scene is back.


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Betting Emporium results

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,703. All bets have an ROI +2.59%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,703 a 1117% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th July

Posted on 23 Jul 2020 08:38 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, at Ascot, Doncaster, Newmarket and York.
  • Football, the final weekend of the Premier League Season
  • Cricket, the third test between England and the West Indies at Old Trafford begins today
  • Golf, The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) -Tue 28th July - Sat 1st Aug 2020

Neil is covering Glorious Goodwood next week with details of what we are betting and why

To subscribe at a cost of £150 go here


Free tip

Crusaders v Hurricanes Saturday 8.05am BST

The Crusaders are three-time defending Super Rugby Champions, the dominant side of this era of Southern Hemisphere rugby only losing 5 of 47 games in three seasons, In the New Zealand version of Super Rugby this season they have won four out of four matches only conceding 73 points, fifty less than any other team, and six tries total and come to this match rested off a bye week.

The Hurricanes fortunes have turned round having lost the first two games of the season they have won three on the spin including 29-27 versus the Blues last weekend thanks to a late try and conversation.

In week two the Crusaders won in Wellington 39-25. Though the Hurricanes have improved since and have plenty of options in attack  no side has been able to restrict the brilliant Crusaders fly half Richie Mo’unga and it is the relative strength of the defences (the Crusaders is far stronger) that will make the difference here

The Crusaders at home are 1/3 outright and -11 on the handicap. It’s not the most exciting bet perhaps but until we have a full slate of sports back it will have to do. I stopped short of a 40-1 Major League baseball ante-post write up!

22 points Crusaders -11 versus the Hurricanes at 10/11 generally


Reprieve

In the recent CAS judgement, Manchester City were reprieved by a section of UEFA rules which set a five-year time limit on infractions eligible for punishment and prevented investigators from ruling on some of the most serious accusations against City. On top of that the CAS cited “insufficient conclusive evidence” on other issues.

This was UEFA’s third failure (City, PSG and AC Milan) to uphold FFP regulations and has created new doubts about the future of the approach to address over-spending by the biggest clubs and the inability to enforce them is likely to lead to a period of big club spending. 

A decade ago, UEFA found that European soccer was $1.9bn in debt. The turnaround, over the last 10 years has been such that in 2017 UEFA’s clubs recorded a profit of $680 million. Financial Fair Play has enabled UEFA to ensure that clubs in smaller markets meet their debts and obligations by wielding the threat of expulsion from money-spinning European competitions but has been less effective at the big club level where it has proved to be unenforceable.

In its absence, it is in the places where it has had the most effect that the consequences will be felt: not for the clubs that can spend heavily season after season, but to the clubs that can risk their future for short-term success. FFP will have to be adapted for the new landscape emerging from this ruling.


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th July

Posted on 15 Jul 2020 09:44 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, at Bath, Haydock, Newbury and York
  • Football, the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season and the FA Cup Semi Finals
  • Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix
  • Cricket, the Second test between England and the West Indies continues at Old Trafford
  • Golf, the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village

Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) -Tue 28th July - Sat 1st Aug 2020

Neil is covering Glorious Goodwood at the end of the month with details of what we are betting and why

To subscribe at a cost of £150 go here


Free tip

Hurricanes v Blues, Saturday 8.05am BST

Super Rugby Aotearoa is a domestic club tournament over 10 weeks in a round robin format (without playoffs or final) being played between the five New Zealand-based teams in Super Rugby replacing the full 2020 Super Rugby season which was suspended in March due to COVID-19

The other four teams are chasing double reigning Super Rugby Champions the Crusaders who saw far have recorded four wins from four games.

The Hurricanes started with two losses but now have successive victories against the Chiefs 25-18 away and then against the Highlanders 17-11 at home in a match that was heavily affected by the weather conditions.

The Blues go to Wellington on Saturday for the battle of who, if anyone, can now overhaul the Crusaders.

The Blues, augmented by Beauden Barrett who joined from the Hurricanes for this year, are much improved this year 3 wins out of 4 after a few years of being the weakest of the New Zealand franchises in Super Rugby, and beat Hurricanes 30-20 round 1 in Auckland and were close to the Crusaders for a long way last weekend.

The Blues have improved to the extent that  they have won 7 of their last 8 matches and have covered the handicap in 6 of their last 7 matches

This should be a very tight game, and I was interested that an improving home side are underdogs in places here.

10 points Hurricanes to beat the Blues 11/10 SkyBet

 


Coming back

Rugby Union in the Northern Hemisphere is one of the later sports to resume competitive play with unique challenges due to proximity and impact. Premiership Rugby in England has now, because of a decision that the current season with nine rounds and the play-offs should be completed unlike French rugby that cancelled the 2019-20 season, announced a fixture schedule that will require clubs to play every four days when the season resumes on August 14. One or two grounds will be used for all the matches which, under current government regulations, will be played behind closed doors.

Competitive fixtures are scheduled for each of the 52 weekends over the next year from that point, with a new season starting on 21st November after a month of England Autumn Internationals and then running through to the British Lions Tour of South Africa next summer. The three European Champions and Challenge Cup knockout rounds are earmarked for September and October

The commercial imperative to not cancel 2019-20 games was due to the risk of a huge shortfall in broadcasting revenue if the games were not played. The downside of such a schedule though is clearly player welfare in such a physical sport with the possibility of individual playing time limits having to be enforced and at worst a reversal of a three year initiative designed to protect players. In an interview this week Bath’s Freddie Burns expressed his concerns

“Given the physicality and the attrition of the game now, to ask players to play seven games in 28 days is just complete madness."

In any case 10 players tested COVID-19 positive only last week so it at least raises the possibility of late cancellations, with no room in the revised schedule for games to be replayed.

The lockdown has exposed the financial weakness of a league that has cumulative losses of £50m. Clubs have started talks about reducing the salary cap by at least £1m next season, which would make current 25% pay cuts permanent, and ending the provision for two marquee players outside the salary cap.


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

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