Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Goodwood, Gret Yarmouth, Newmarket and Thirsk over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Football, the final weekend of Premier League fixtures this season.
- Formula One, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola.
- Cricket, The IPL continues.
- Golf, the Charles Schwab Challenge on the USPGA and the Soudal Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Geneva and Lyon Opens
Free Tip
IPL Rajasthan Royals v Kolkota Knight Riders Sunday 3pm
This is the final game of the group stages, with the play offs beginning next Tuesday and the final next Sunday in Chennai. It’s already been a record-breaking tournament, with 14 centuries this year, and 26 in the last two years out of the 101 centuries in the competition’s 18 year history. With a few group games to go at the time of writing there have been a record 1133 sixes hit in 128 innings. Last year was also record, 1124 sixes in 147 innings.
The reasons for the have been well-rehearsed, good pitches, small boundaries, stronger players, bigger bats and the new impact substitute rule have all contributed. It remains to be seen whether this type of scoring carries over to the T20 World Cup next month in the Caribbean and the USA.
As the tournament reaches it end this week there have been signs that pitches are becoming more tired and scoring has been coming down Pitches are slowing down and it’s not as easy for the hitters.
KKR are finishing top of the group stage table, settled with a game to spare with 9 wins from their 13 wins to date. Rajasthan are in a mini-slump having lost four games in a row and slid to third in the table with 8 wins and five defeats after their exceptional start to the competition.
With reference to this game it’s worth a look at next week’s Play-off format, as it impacts on motivations here. First and Second in the group table play on Tuesday in the Qualifier game with the winner going straight to the final. A huge advantage to the winner, as the loser goes onto the second Qualifier on Friday against the winner of the 3rd v 4th game on Wednesday.
Rajasthan know they need to win this game to stand a chance of the top two. KKR will hope to win this game to keep Rajasthan, over the tournament as a whole their most dangerous opponent alongside Sunrisers, out of the Qualifier. KKR are 8/11 for the match Rajasthan 11/10.
Both teams go into this game and the rest of the competition without their English players who have bene major contributors. Salt and Buttler have been called back to England to prepare for the World Cup in a series against Pakistan.
For KKR Sunil Narine has had one of the best IPL seasons ever with to date 461 runs at a strike rate of 183 and 14 wickets at and economy rate of just 6.6. He is only the second player, after Shane Watson in 2008 to post this strike rate and economy with over 400 runs and 12 wickets.
It’s no surprise to see him top of the KKR batsman market at 3/1 ahead of the Iyers, Russell and Raghuvanshi the other KKR top scorers in the tournament in the absence of Salt. Salt will be a big loss to KRR, he’d hit 435 runs at a strike rate of 180.
There is another option though. Nitish Rana scored 413 runs in last year’s IPL when KKR captain and top scored in a quarter of the KKR innings.
This year, as vice-captain, he scored nine in the first match suffering a hand injury that kept him out of the next ten games. On his comeback he scored a 23 ball 33 batting in the middle order and with Salt missing is going to be back in the side for the play-offs.
A dangerous customer he can be backed at 11/2 to be KKR top scorer here, a value price with Betfred.
10 points Nitish Rana Top KKR scorer 11/2 Betfred, 5/1 William Hill
Capped
American investors have increasingly crossed the Atlantic to acquire equity stakes in the Premier League’s top clubs. Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Manchester United, West Ham, Fulham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, and Burnley all now have some element of American ownership.
The NFL currently brings in more than $20bn in annual revenue more than annual revenue than the world’s top five football leagues combined, despite the latter having a much larger global fanbase and many American Premier League investors have talked about the under-utilisation of the league’s financial potential.
They have though tended to underestimate the Premier League’s unique challenges, including ever-escalating salaries due to sovereign-owned competitors and annual expenses that routinely surpass 70% of a club’s total income, in addition to promotion/relegation, an alien concept in American sports.
Many American owners have spent years campaigning for changes across the Premier League which runs on a shareholder model, with potential rule changes requiring the support of at least 14 out of 20 clubs, to be passed and as yet there aren’t 14 American ownership influences.
The Super League would have boosted valuations by implementing a closed-league structure similar to the NFL and NBA and a salary cap structure was always going to be on the table.
A majority of Premier League owners are finalising a proposal that would place a hard spending limit on annual wages and transfer fees across the league with a vote expected next month with the cap expected to be calculated based on a 5x multiple of the annual TV revenue earned by the Premier League’s poorest club. Approximately with last season’s bottom club earning £120m from the TV deal that means a £600m salary cap incoming. Last season only Chelsea would have exceeded that threshold.
The salary cap is one of the main reasons American sports produce such parity with smaller market teams capable of winning leagues in a fairer playing field for recruiting talent.
A salary cap system does have some negatives. In its simplest form it places a limit on player earnings and the Premier League competes for talent against Europe’s other top leagues, unlike in the United States where the NFL, NBA, etc., are only competing against themselves.
The Premier League will probably deduct points from clubs that breach the annual salary cap threshold, similar to the system used today for clubs that violate Profit and Sustainability Rules. The league might be better off with a luxury tax system (as seen in the NBA and MLB), allowing bigger clubs to spend more money if they choose and then redistributing that money to smaller Teams. Otherwise, a salary cap system could actually worsen parity, as it would effectively lock in financial advantages for the league’s biggest clubs.
The Professional Footballers’ Association has also said they would challenge any hard cap on player wages, claiming it violates European competition law.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Leicester, Lingfield, Nottingham and over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Arsenal.
- Cricket, The IPL continues.
- Golf, the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club.
- Tennis, The ATP Italian Open.
Free Tip
IPL Chennai Super Kings v Rajasthan Royals Sunday 11am
Here five time and defending champions CSK host the long-time leaders of the 2024 IPL table the Royals.
Rajasthan now sit second in the table with 8 wins from their 11 games (each team plays 14 league games, so we are getting close to the play-offs) having lost successive games when with a chance to seal a play-off berth, latterly with a defeat in another high-scoring match in Delhi on Tuesday.
CSK are fourth with 6 wins from their 12 games after their heavy defeat to Gujurat on Friday, so now 4 points behind the Royals, and one of four teams likely fighting for just two play-off spots with just two league games to go.
CSK are at home in this match in Chepauk, traditionally one of the more spin-friendly IPL venues and we are getting later into the tournament, with CSK playing one of the most powerful batting line-ups, and there must be a chance that this is played on a used pitch to benefit CSK’s Jadeja and (recently introduced into the side) Santner and leave the Rajasthan batting line-up hamstrung.
First innings scores at Chepauk so far in this tournament are 173,206,137,210 and 212, note none are the 250-260 scores that have become commonplace elsewhere with great pitches, small boundaries and impact substitutes all notable features of the 2024 IPL.
I wanted to feature the CSK team here. With one exception CSK’s batting line-up has been disappointing this year. That exception is the 2024 captain Ruturaj Gaikwad opening the batting who is near the top of the batting charts this year with 541 runs, second only to Kohli’s 634. He’s unlucky to be left out of India’s T20 World Cup squad for next month’s competition in the Caribbean and USA.
Gaikwad has a hundred and four fifties in the tournament so far with a strike rate of over 140, so he’s produced about 50% of the time he’s gone to the wicket. His last three scores in Chennai home games are 108*,98 and 62.
The next beat CSK batting performers are Dube, batting 4 with 391 runs at 170 and New Zealander Mitchell batting 3 with 293 at 130, vut with only two fifties. The rest of the batting line up sees veteran Rahane open and the middle order and finishers Jadeja, Moeen and Dhoni.
CSK’s batting stats present a contrast with Rajasthan’s where Parag, Samson, Buttler and Jaiswal have all scored over 300 runs at strike rates of 150+.
Gaikwad is the obvious bet in the top batsman market, though if we knew for sure the pitch wasn’t a fresh one then Jadeja with 8 wickets in the tournament at under 7.5 per over would obviously appeal in the top CSK bowler market. On the fresher pitches seen to date in the tournament Mustafizur with 14 wickets and Deshpande with 13 have been more effective than the spinners. Mustafizur has now left to join up with the Bangladesh national team ahead of the World T20.
10 points Ruturaj Gaikwad Top CSK batsman 12/5 William Hill, 9/4 Ladbrokes/Coral, 21/10 Betfred
Summer dreaming.
Cole Palmer can expect to be included in England’s squad for Euro 2024 if he's fit, but how can Gareth Southgate get him in the starting XI? Palmer sits alongside Haaland at the top of the Premier League scoring lists, with Watkins top if penalties are excluded. Palmer has scored nine penalties in his 30 goal involvements, only the third player in Premier League history to reach 30+ goal involvements in a single season while aged 21 or younger. However, whether Palmer will make England's starting XI remains to be seen.
Palmer was to the senior squad for the first time in November, making his debut against Malta and used as a substitute days later against North Macedonia. Palmer, though, has yet to start a full international and played no minutes in last month's two friendlies at Wembley, a minor injury had prevented Palmer from training.
At the age of 21 and without much international experience though, Palmer’s route into a first-choice team at a major tournament is tricky. Whilst England clearly have issues and weaknesses in their back five positions, they have quality and strength in depth throughout midfield, and Southgate is a notoriously conservative manager.
Perhaps the most likely option to fit Palmer in is to drop Bellingham back and play him alongside Rice with an attacking midfield three of Saka-Palmer-Foden behind Kane.
However Bellingham has scored 23 goals and made 11 assists so far this season in a No 10 role. Palmer would also be playing out of position, playing centrally rather than his preferred option wide right.
An alternative would be to play Foden centrally and Palmer in a preferred wide position, this time wide left. That would get Foden into the position he has been so successful in for Manchester City this season.
A third option would be to play Palmer ahead of Saka wide right, alongside Bellingham at 10, and one of Gallagher or Mainoo (I suppose I have to mention Jordan Henderson too) alongside Rice. This puts Palmer in his favoured position, but Saka has 18 goals and 13 assists for Arsenal this season.
Assuming all the players make it to Germany fit and in form, it looks a nice problem for Southgate to have.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Goodwood, Gret Yarmouth, Newmarket and Thirsk over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur
- Formula One, the Miami Grand Prix
- Cricket, The IPL continues.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
- Golf, the Wells Fargo Championship on the USPGA.
- Tennis, The ATP Italian Open.
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Semi-Final Leinster v Northampton Saturday 5pm
It has been six years since an away side won a European Champions Cup Semi-Final (the country of the higher seed is given semi-final hosting rights), and another two home wins are expected this weekend. Leinster, last year’s finalists, are -13 on the handicap at home to Northampton the English Premiership leaders and top French side Toulouse are -18 at home to Harlequins.
This week I am going to look at the Leinster game at Croke Park, Dublin, the first club game at the Gaelic football ground since 2009. Leinster are perennial European powerhouses, the spearhead of the Irish rugby union four province and Academies system, and with over 15 current Ireland Internationals, 12 of whom started in the 36-22 Quarter-Final win over Leicester.
Leinster last won the tournament in 2018, and were runners-up in 2019, 2022 and 2023 going against the best French teams and Saracens in the current era. For this squad to have no European trophy for five years and no domestic trophy for three, has to be seen as major underperformance given their resources and talent base.
The bullish case for this year centres on the recruitment of Rugby World Cup winning coach Jacques Nienaber from South Africa who has emphasised defence, added to the team’s physical edge and been more pragmatic in selection and with those changes look more suited to knock-out rugby.
This season Leinster were unbeaten in the tournament’s Pool stages and were until recently top of the URC table. Their priority towards winning this competition for a fifth time became abundantly clear when in the last fortnight they sent a Second XV down to South Africa for successive URC games between the European Quarter final and this semi-final and lost both games heavily, 44-12 and 42-12, meaning they are now behind Glasgow Warriors in the URC table. Obviously the team for this game stayed at home and rested.
Northampton on the other hand have played their first-choice team since their huge 59-22 European Quarter final win at home to the Bulls. They beat Leicester at home 40-22 and last weekend lost to Harlequins at Twickenham 41-32.
Northampton though is capable of causing Leinster problems. They’ve scored over 450 points and 58 tries in 16 English premiership games, winning 11 of them with a thrilling attacking style led by a raft of young players that have become England internationals in the last two years from Alex Mitchell and Finn Smith at 9-10 through to Fraser Dingwall and the excellent Tommy Freeman at 13 and 14. Up front they have the experience of Lawes and Ludlam to call on.
Unfortunately they are going to be up against it here away against a powerful rested team. I expect a high scoring game, but for Leinster to win comfortably in the circumstances.
11 points Leinster -13 at 10/11 Bet365, Coral/Ladbrokes, -14 generally
Record Breakers.
The 2024 NFL draft was held last week in Detroit, the 9th year since the NFL moved the draft away from New York to a different city each year. Detroit embraced the hosting and the three-day attendance of 775,000 was a record. 2025 sees the draft take place in Green Bay, a historic NFL city.
257 players were drafted overall. A total of 23 offensive players were selected in the first round, shattering the previous record of 19 (1968, 2004, and 2019). The first 14 drafted players were all offensive players, doubling the previous high (seven) set in 2021 to start a draft. In the 57-year history of the NFL draft there had always been at least two defensive players taken in the first 10 picks. Six Quarterbacks in the first round equalled the record from 1983, a class that included all-time greats Elway and Marino. Seven wide receivers were drafted in the first round, which had not happened since 2004.
With interest at an all-time high, the league’s emphasis on points and rules favouring offense will only continue. It has been a trickle-up effect, with heavy scoring in the college game a decade or so ago now cemented in the pro game and that has led to the NFL sees all-time high television ratings, exploding revenue and in downtown Detroit, the massive crowds for the draft.
That’s not to say all those draft picks on offense will flourish. The odds say at least half will be disappointments. Each draft class varies, which different strengths at different positions year to year. Above this though there are structural factors at play. The rookie player component of the league collective bargaining agreement gives the possibility of a fifth contract year for rookies drafted in the first round and lends itself to teams taking chances on rookie Quarterbacks, the competitive advantage of having a good young Quarterback on a cheap contract for longer in terms of being able to build a roster elsewhere is huge.
Each year we see more and more passers elevated to Round 1 status each year while the middle round Quarterback picks this year were non-existent. This year marginal first round Quarterbacks Michael Penix and Bo Nix were drafted in the first twelve picks, then we didn't see a single quarterback drafted until pick No. 150. This gap of 138 picks was another, rather niche, draft record!
NFL teams were excited about this year's offensive line class, which was seen as historic coming into the draft. Eight offensive tackles were drafted in the first round, which tied the record set in 2008. Twenty-five offensive linemen (including 17 Offensive tackles) were selected in the first three rounds of the draft, the most ever during the first two days of the draft. To cap it off, the 55 offensive linemen and 28 offensive tackles selected across 257 picks each set records for the seven-round draft era (since 1994).
Atlanta’s selection of Michael Penix Junior, the Washington Quarterback, at the eighth overall pick was a stunner, described as “the biggest surprise selection of my 21 years anchoring the draft coverage” by host Rich Eisen during the TV coverage. This pick had a huge knock-on effect through the rest of the first round as offensive players were drafted early and defensive players (Atlanta was regarded as a sure thing to select the first defensive player in the draft) were often drafted later than expected.
Reaction to the Penix pick was bleak. One analyst wrote “This selection of Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 was the worst pick of the night and might be one of the worst picks in NFL draft history.”
Why might this be the case? We can start with it being a reach as most had Penix going much later. Maybe not in the second round, but certainly after J.J. McCarthy who was selected 10th. Quarterback though is the most important position, so we can overlook a reach if you truly see a franchise player.
However why is Atlanta even looking at a first round Quarterback having just signed Kirk Cousins to the richest contract in the NFL this year at $180m over the next four years, with $100m guaranteed in the next two years?
That is the main reason this pick makes no sense. If they never signed Cousins and were still stuck with Desmond Ridder, then fair enough. They made a big move with a huge financial commitment in free agency at quarterback by bringing in a 36-year-old passer coming off a torn Achilles.
One of the biggest values in drafting a quarterback high in the first round is to get him on a low-salary contract for a few years before you extend him if he deserves it. This is how we see teams afford other great players as the quarterback is making peanuts relative to the veterans in the league. We see the Texans doing this right now with C.J. Stroud, which allows them to bring in players like Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs, but the Falcons aren’t going to get to enjoy that. They are paying Cousins a lot while Penix is going to sit on the bench. Cousins’ cap hit jumps to $40m in 2025 and then $57.5m in 2026. If they get out of the contract after two years, then it likely was a total waste to sign him in the first place.
By signing Cousins, the Falcons should have taken themselves out of the quarterback market at No. 8. Cousins is not a Hall of Fame-calibre quarterback. He needs all the help he can get to win a Super Bowl. But instead of helping him this year with the No. 8 pick, they drafted his eventual replacement and put added pressure on him.
With the No. 8 pick, the Falcons had their choice of any defender they wanted in this draft, including any pass rusher or corner. They could have drafted Rome Odunze to be their second wide receiver behind Drake London. They could have drafted Brock Bowers to create a unique tight end-driven offense with Kyle Pitts. They could have drafted an offensive tackle who might last there for the next ten years.
What makes this even worse is Penix’s age. He’ll be 24 on May 8th. That means even if he takes over from Cousins in 2026, he’ll be 26 years old. That’s potentially two years wasted of a cost-controlled quarterback who isn’t getting any real-game reps of significance.
The pick showed no understanding of how today’s NFL works and this is the headline of an off-season for a team that declined the opportunity to hire Bill Belichick as the next head coach too.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th April
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon over the jumps at Sandown and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal.
- Cricket, The IPL continues.
- Golf, the Byron Nelson Championship on the USPGA and the Volvo China Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, The ATP Madrid Open.
Free Tip
IPL Lucknow Super Giants v Rajasthan Royals Saturday 27th April 3pm
This weekend sees two teams currently in the top four of the IPL table meet in Lucknow. Having completed their Jaipur leg of home games Rajasthan go into the game top with seven wins from eight games. LSG meanwhile have five wins from eight games and sit fourth after having just chased down 210 against CSK for the highest ever chase in Chepauk, with Stoinis blasting 124* to take them to a last over win.
Such scores above 200 and unlikely chases of high first innings scores have become a feature of this IPL, where the introduction of impact players for this year has made a real difference to risk taking. Lengthening a batting line up allows the early players to go harder and set up big scores.
This though could be one of the more traditional T20 games, on what can be a tacky surface at Lucknow. At home, Lucknow went for a long time over many games always successfully defending 165 and although that streak has now ended first innings scores at Lucknow this season are 163,167,176, 199. Nothing very excessive
Rajasthan’s batting line up is powerful. The top four have combined for three hundreds and six fifties so far. Parag and Samson have over 210 runs at a strike rate of over 150, Buttler has 285 runs, latterly playing as an impact player and not fielding/keeping due to injury and Indian test opener Jaiswal hit form last game with a 59 ball hundred against Mumbai.
Rajasthan’s bowling line up sees leg break bowler Chahal, now 33 years old, lead the charts with 13 wickers, second in the competition to the peerless Bumrah. His 13 wickets have come at an economy rate of only 8.
Chahal has a long and successful history in the IPL. Signed by Rajasthan in 2022 he took 27 wickets, the most in the competition, as Rajasthan won their first IPL. During 2023 he overtook Bravo to become the IPL’s leading wicket taker. Particularly if Rajasthan bowl first, before dew becomes a factor in the second innings, the Lucknow surface should suit slow bowlers.
Other candidates are the accurate medium pacer Sandeep Sharma who returned from injury in the last game and took 5 for 18 and the other quicks Trent Boult and Avesh Khan with 9 and 8 wickets so far in the competition respectively. Elsewhere Ashwin tends to bowl a containing role in the middle overs, has only taken one wicket in the tournament so far, South African spinner Maharaj has only played two matches and the back-up seamers Sen and Burger have six wickets having played 3 and 4 wickets respectively.
Chahal should be clear favourite in the Top Rajasthan bowler market for the match, the top prices quoted below looks out of line with the Betfred price more realistic.
10 points Yuzvendra Chahal top Rajasthan bowler at 11/4 Coral/Ladbrokes, 100/30 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power ( 19/10 Betfred, 7/4 Bet365. )
Kick-Off
Rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit participated in the NFL's International Player Pathway pro day last month after a three-month training programme in Florida and ran a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash. Rees-Zammit then made visits to a handful of teams before agreeing to contract terms with the Kansas City Chiefs, back-to-back Super Bowl winners and the best team in the NFL.
This season marks the first time that each NFL team will have a 17th roster spot on the practice squad specifically available for an international player. Teams also are permitted to elevate an international practice squad player to the active roster a maximum of three times throughout the season, increasing opportunities for players to develop and get a chance to play. Teams also receive one training camp roster exemption for a qualifying international player.
Against this background it might be thought that joining an excellent team would hinder LRZ’s chances of making the roster and getting on the field. Of course currently weaker teams have a far greater need for raw but athletically gifted players but Rees-Zammit is playing the long game.
Not only are the Chiefs among the best-run teams in the league, they have also built a culture of offensive creativity and thinking outside the box.
The Chiefs coaches will have Rees-Zammit earmarked for some of their more left-field ideas, he’s got the speed, balance and pass-and-catch ability to be a useful weapon, a “difference maker” . Coach Andy Reid stated last week that LRZ will be started at running back, but will also practice at wide receiver and notably on kick returns too.
This off-season NFL teams voted to change the rules on kick-offs. The kicker’s team-mates will no longer be allowed to make their cavalry charge towards the returner; instead they must stand still on their opponents’ 35-yard line until the returner has caught the ball or it hits the ground.
The official reason for the change was player safety. Fewer high-impact collisions, which will reduce the prevalence of head injuries, but the upshot is entertainment. Previous rule changes rules had significantly restricted the number of times that kick returners even attempted to run the ball back, from 80% to 25% of kick-offs.
The result was that that kick-offs had become something of a “dead play”. Last season Marvin Mims was selected for the Pro Bowl as the outstanding returner in the league, yet across 16 games he attempted only 15 kick-off returns at an average of 26.5 yards, with one touchdown. For context, there are on average ten kick-offs a game. It was estimated that there were over 2,000 dead plays across the season. Safer, of course, but not entertaining.
The new kick-off rule gives LRZ a much better chance to make the 53-man roster. The rule has been imported from the spring XFL league, where there were a lot of trick-play returns. By potentially adding LRZ initially to receive kick-offs the Chiefs are adding a player who can return kicks, but also fire a 20-yard lateral off either hand without turning around to do it.
LRZ is reportedly already working with Patrick Mahomes in Texas ahead of off-season workouts.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st April
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st April
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Brighton, Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk and over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor-on-Dee.
- Football, FA Cup Semi-Finals and Premier League fixtures include Fulham v Arsenal.
- Formula One, the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai
- Cricket, The IPL continues.
- Golf, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans on the USPGA and the ISPS Handa Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, The ATP Madrid Open.
Free Tip
IPL: Kolkota Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore Sunday 11am
Half-way through the league stages of the 2024 IPL and RCB are in a familiar position, perennial under-achievers compared to the big-name talent they recruit. This year they have only one win in seven games.
KKR meanwhile are in second place with four wins from six games about to embark on a run of four home games in a row at Eden Gardens following their loss to Rajasthan in midweek, failing to defend 223 thanks to Buttler’s match-winning century as a finisher, the joint highest successful run chase in IPL history.
The betting angle here concerns attacking the RCB bowling, specifically in the opening powerplay. In their seven games so far this year RCB have only taken 4 opening powerplay wickets, and gone at over 13 runs an over, the worst combination of wickets/economy in IPL history.
RCB are short of effective bowling options, captain Faf Du Plessis has stated that if they are to have success it will have to be led by the batting line-up. The side as a whole lacks a coherent strategy (Kohli is a brilliant player but opening the batting at a strike rate in the 120s is markedly slower than many other openers in currently more successful teams) and, not unusually in a badly performing side, has now begun to tinker with their line-up searching for a winning combination. For example Cameron Green has been replaced by Will Jacks as the fourth overseas in the team, whilst Glenn Maxwell has taken an indefinite break from the IPL citing mental and physical fatigue.
Part of RCB’s problem doesn’t apply here, they are not playing in their relatively small home stadium where big scores and range hitting are inevitable. Another part of their problem applies anywhere whilst their bowling line-up remains ineffective. There has been a marked shift in the modern T20 game demonstrated so far in the IPL. Specialised power hitting training, muscle building, bigger/heavier bats and smaller boundaries (for the spectacle) mean batsmen have become hugely adept at hitting sixes.
For example in this IPL the highest scoring team Sunrisers Hyderabad have already smashed 287, 277 and 272 and scores of 200-225 are becoming more commonplace.
Against this context lets look at the KKR batting line-up.
The openers are Phil Salt and Sunil Narine, with the Afghan Gurbaz in reserve.
Narine, who is habitually installed at the top of T20 batting line-ups as a pinch hitter, has developed into a lethal hitting option in this competition with 276 runs at a strike rate of 187 and 20 sixes. Narine benefits from matches being played on hitting friendly surfaces but is a high variance option. His six scores range from 2 and 6 to 27,45, 85 and 109 off 56 balls against Rajasthan, his first IPL century in 75 IPL games and first century in 504 T20 games overall at the age of 35.
Phil Salt currently has the third most runs among overseas batters at the IPL. (behind Pooran and Buttler) with 201 striking at 150. This is a very encouraging spell with a T20 World Cup just around the corner. Salt has scored two fifties so far.
At number 3 Raguvanshi, India's highest run-getter at the 2022 Under-19 World Cup in the Caribbean, which India won, has 115 runs in 6 innings.
At number four Captain Shreyas Iyer has 140 runs at a strike rate of 122. Then comes the power hitter Andre Russell, who has batted as low as 8 as a finisher and as high as 5 in other games. He has 128 runs at a huge strike rate of 200 with 10 sixes.
Narine and Salt against RCB’s powerplay bowling weakness, playing at home, have an opportunity to make more sizeable contributions here. I then looked at the Top KKR batsman market for the game which is as follows:
Salt 5/2
Iyer 18/5
Raguvanshi 18/5
Narine 9/2
Russell 6/1
Bar 11/1
Even accepting Narine comes with risks, his hitting either comes off or it doesn’t on a game by game basis so consistency isn’t the plan with him opening the batting I expected to see him far closer to favouritism based on recency bias alone, coming off 109 off 56 balls on Tuesday. Against this opponent especially. At a minimum I would have him second favourite behind Salt given the number 3 Raguvanshi is 19 years old and he’ll have a head-start over the rest of the order starting with Iyer at humer four.
15 points Sunil Narine Top KKR scorer at 9/2 Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, 4/1 Ladbrokes/Coral.
Capped
It’s under two years since three Premiership Ruby clubs, Wasps, Worcester Warriors and London Irish went under, and at least this season there is no sign of a fourth from the remaining ten teams.
Nevertheless with only one club still to report last year’s accounts no club turned a profit last year with cumulative losses in the region of £25m. It is therefore jarring to see the clubs vote to raise their salary cap from £5m to £6.4m next season.
The clubs in favour of the rise claim that a deeper salary cap is essential to halt the drain of playing talent to the French Top 14 and to compete on a more level playing field in European competition.
Yet this season more than a third of the clubs in the Champions Cup last 16 and three Quarter-Finalists are English and Premiership sides have beaten Stade Francais, Toulon and Racing 92 away in the Pool stages. The French Top 14 runs with a salary cap per team of over £10m.
Two factors have been at play here. The dispersal of the playing squads of the three lost teams to the rest of the Premiership has strengthened the depth of the remaining squads, and meanwhile a number of the French sides prioritised their domestic league rather than Europe in team selection particularly in the second half of the pool stages.
All this is happening at a time when the Premiership is attempting to renegotiate the repayments of over £150m from Covid-19 loans.. How can you claim to not be able to repay funds owed to the taxpayer and then increase your salary cap by £1.4m?
There has been rumour regarding Premiership rugby’s confidence of being able to persuade its clubs to return to a £5m cap the season after next, as a compromise to allow for an improved negotiating position on the Covid loans with the Government, but it has to be considered unlikely once the genie of a higher salary cap is out of the bottle. Flipping between cap limits also makes long-term recruitment difficult.
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