Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Easter Weekend Road to Riches Blog

Posted on 18 Apr 2019 12:46 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up over Easter weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham. 4-3 anyone?

- Racing, Flat racing at Brighton, Musselburgh and Nottingham. Also over the jumps at Carlisle, Haydock and Newton Abbot. All weather racing at Kempton Park.

- Rugby Union, the European Rugby Champions Cup Semi Finals

- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues

- Snooker, the start of the World Championship at the Crucible

- Golf, The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town on the USPGA.

- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo


Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)

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French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)

 

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Royal Ascot (18th-22nd June )

 

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Cricket World Cup (May 30th-July 14th)

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Free tip

2019 World Snooker Championship

Over the last ten days the Snooker World Championship qualifiers have been taking place ahead of the start of the Championship tomorrow. Whether seventeenth in the rankings or an amateur, to reach the Crucible the 16 qualifiers have had to play three 19 frame matches.

Rehearsing the arguments I have made in previous years ahead of first round betting, there is more depth outside the top sixteen these days, and the qualifiers come to the Crucible battle hardened having won 30 frames to make it whereas much of the season is taken up with best of sevens and best of nines. This year the season’s lack of long match practice for many of the top sixteen is exacerbated because so many didn’t go deep in the China Open (best of 11 from the start, best of 21 final) recently. 

In terms of first round betting, last year six Qualifiers beat their seeded opponents and over the last decade as many as eight have done so in a single year. In terms of betting opportunities its about matching up the qualifier with potential (preferably a young and up and coming player) with the vulnerable seed, on the basis of form in the second half of this season and in a few cases longer term.

These might include:

Mark Williams (ranked one, provisional rank seventh. Not wholly convinced of his motivation after last year, comes to the tournament having spent eleven months on the lash)

Kyren Wilson (little form since Ferrule problems in February)

Ding Junhui (no form, not as dedicated these days)

Shaun Murphy (18 months into a slide down the rankings. 1 year ranking is 47)

Stephen Maguire (temperament, very opposable)

But also might include Mark Selby. Selby has had a disappointing 2019 to date. In the 2018-19 season he won in China last autumn and made the semis in Northern Ireland but has one fourth round finish in this calendar year, including losing in China Open qualifiers in the most recent big tournament. Of course he’s a grinder but its notable that the Crucible has been very hit and miss for him in recent years. Three Championship wins, and four first or second round exits. He’s down to four in the Provisional rankings and goes into the Worlds at 10-1 in places, a price unprecedented for Selby in the last 6-7 years.

Then draw up a short list of qualifiers. Conventional wisdom is to avoid debutants (you never know if they will take to the Crucible, particularly younger debutants) of which there are 7 this year, but I think that can be less applicable in certain circumstances

I split them into two categories. Tthose on the cusp of the top 16

Dott (drew Bingham)

Perry (drew Gilbert)

Carter (drew Lisowski)

Of the less experienced players

Yuelong (drew Mark Allen)

Xintong (drew Selby)

Un Nooh (unfortunately for us as he was the one I wanted to be on most, drew Trump)

Pengfei (drew Maguire)

Donaldson (drew Kyren Wilson)

So refining the list further we get a shortlist of Pengfei, Donaldson, Xingtong, They are all debutants.

Five Chinese players made it through the Qualifying rounds and one of the most interesting is Zhao Xintong. Aged 22 he fell off tour in 2017-18 then won back in through Q school for the startof this season where he has since reached the semis of the China Championship and the Quarters of the Welsh Open.

He is a tremendously promising talent, a left handed flair player that doesn’t look like he will be over-awed by the circumstances with a happy go lucky temperament. In Qualifying he beat Noppon Saengkham, widely favoured to win the bracket, 10-5 then Matt Selt 10-4. Watching the Selt match on a grainy live stream Xingtong was brilliant. Quick, exciting, great long potter and break builder

Of course he’s a dog to beat Selby (and alternatives might be Pengfei at 2/1 and Donaldson at 11/4 both of which also match up value to opportunity)

The match is played on Easter Monday.

8 points Zhao Xintong to bet Mark Selby at 7/2 with William Hill. 100/30 Bet365


Too big to go down?

In the Gallagher Premiership the Leicester Tigers have conceded 30 points per game this season. No team concedes more points than the Tigers and only two teams score fewer points. By points difference they are the worst team in the Premiership, by tries against they are the worst team in the Premiership, by tries for they are the second worst team in the Premiership.

It’s a big story in Premiership rugby that they face the prospect of relegation. Leicester average crowds of 23,000 and play in the biggest of the single use club stadiums and won the Heineken Cup twice in this Millenium.

How can a team that currently includes Toomua, Tuilagi, May, Ford, Youngs, Genge and Cole find itself in such dire straits?

The answer over the long term lies in lack of stability, resource allocation under the salary cap and under successive coaches lies in defensive frailties.

In terms of lack of stability Leicester are on their fourth coach in as many years and for a long time there wasn’t a defence coach in place.  Given the defence has been lacking for several seasons this was odd.  The current coach Geordan Murphy is a fixture at the club but inexperienced.

On the pitch If you look at the number of players in and out of Leicester over the past six years you see about 70 in and more than 100 out. Nearly 40 players signed and left within a five-year period. This has created a sense of constant rebuilding.

Under the salary cap, below the star name players, squad depth of players below international standard but reliable week to week contributors does not compare with the best run cubs in the division.

Leicester have a powerful back line but struggle in back five of the pack and this is particularly notably in the back row where mistakes in defensive patterns are common. With the squad up to the salary cap, it hasn’t been easy to correct that and certainly not within a season with players under contract elsewhere.

The answers are likely to come from more experienced coaching with more depth of support and new defence strategies, a hard headed look at the cost of the marquee players and whether sums invested there could be apportioned elsewhere and this may yet have to happen outside the top division.

After they held on to beat Newcastle away 27-22 last Friday night, a match in which the threat of relegation made the whole game a very tense watch, Leicester have three games left starting with a winnable game at home against Bristol followed by tough looking trips to face Harlequins away and Bath at home. Newcastle play Northampton at home, Gloucester away and Bristol at home. Finally, Worcester have perhaps the hardest finishing schedule with Gloucester at home, Northampton away and Saracens at home. I think Worcester or Newcastle will be the team to go down but for Leicester its far too close for comfort.


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th April

Posted on 12 Apr 2019 10:31 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Chelsea

- Racing, Flat racing at Newbury and Thirsk. Also over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Formula One, the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai

- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues

- Golf, The Masters at Augusta.

- Tennis, the US Clay Court Championships in Houston and ATP Morocco


Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)

Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here

 


French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)

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Royal Ascot (18th-22nd June )

The package from Neil Channing costs £199.99. Sign Up here

 


 

Cricket World Cup (May 30th-July 14th)

The package costs £50 Sign up here

 


 

Free tip: IPL Sunrisers Hyderabad v Delhi Capitals Sunday 3.30pm BST

Sunrisers lost at Kings XI on Monday failing to defend 149 and losing their third game out of six so far this season.

Last season on their run to the IPL final Sunrisers relied on a superb bowling attack headed by Rashid Khan to take them deep in the competition but Kane Williamson and David Warner aside the batting line up was quite fragile and cost them when it really mattered in the play offs. This season the bowling attack has yet to hit the heights of 2018 but what has them still squarely in contention to go deep in the tournament even despite the injured Williamson is the blistering achievements of Warner and Bairstow at the top of the order. Through their first six games the openers have combined for 612 runs, the pair are the top run scorers in the competition and have scored 67% of their team’s runs. Their brilliance has left the middle of the batting order short of time in the middle which could be an issue further down the line but for now the figures are as follows

Warner 349 runs at a 146 strike rate with three fifties and a hundred

Bairstow 263 runs at a 161 strike rate and a hundred

Warner has faced 75 balls more than Bairstow in the six games after Bairstow’s early dismissal against Kings XI in the last game.

Next for Sunrisers is a home game against the Delhi Capitals on Sunday.  Delhi beat RCB by 4 wickets last weekend chasing 150 to win with Rabada taking 4-21 and Iyer scoring 67 to also take their record to 3-3 after six games and I am writing before Delhi’s game with KKR on Friday.

In the Sunrisers top batsman market understandably Warner and Bairstow are favourites for this match. Warner’s scores so far in this IPL are 85,69,100*, 10,15 and 70*. In truth the last of those innings was slightly odd as he batted through in a modest total but the consistency of his form is striking and he remains a solid prospect in this sub market.

The game is on Sunday after noon and most of the market will be up on Saturday so best to wait til then for a wider range of firms to be up and looking for 2/1 plus. Just taking what is available at the time of writing

8 points David Warner Top Sunrisers batsman v Delhi Capitals 9/4 Skybet 9/5 BetfairSportsbook/PaddyPower.


Open to Offers

The Six Nations are considering three competing investment offers; one from the CVC Capital, another from IMG, and the other organised by World Rugby

The CVC deal, with the company that took a stake in Premiership rugby last December and is also interested in the Pro 14, is seen to be the front runner and they would like to buy a 30% stake in the Six Nations that it is believed could provide a windfall of more than £100m to each union and £500m in total but would mean partly surrendering control of the competition with CVC then overseeing the commercial rights. As with other similar deals (such as F1), it would seem likely the sums work only if the Six Nations comes off free-to-air TV.

In their decision the Home Unions will need to balance the sums on offer with the need for mainstream accessibility of the sport and in that the example of English cricket is applicable.

The ECB sold its rights to Sky in 2004. It used the windfall to invest in international teams and build up a reserve that has since been used on various initiatives designed to increase participation in the game. Also with that aim The ECB is currently in a long process trying to get cricket back on to mainstream TV via the new Hundred format, designed in part to appeal to the BBC.

From 2006-16 the number of adults who played cricket at least once a week dropped by almost 20%, from 195,200 in 2006 to158,500 in 2016. Over that same period, weekly participation in rugby union rose from 185,600 to 199,000. Rugby’s two top competitions, the Six Nations and the World Cup, are on free-to-air TV and it wouldn’t appear that these dual trends are a coincidence. With the BBC getting viewership per game over Six Nations weekends of over 6m, in some cases in the top five most viewed programmes on the network over that week, it would be a brave administrator that gave up that exposure and the benefit it has on the long term heath of the game no matter the short term financial rewards for doing so.

For sports aside from football specifically the Premier League which nevertheless has Match of the Day each weekend for terrestrial viewers, free-to-air has long ignored as part of the marketing strategies and any CVC/Six Nations deal will be an interesting test of the foresight, or not, of Rugby’s administrators.

 


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

The Road to Riches 6th-7th April

Posted on 4 Apr 2019 16:09 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, The FA Cup Semi Finals

- Racing, the Aintree Grand National Festival. Also over the jumps at Chepstow and Newcastle. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues

- Golf, The Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.


 

Aintree Grand National Saturday 6th April 2019 - all the write ups and analysis by Neil together with details of all the bets that we are having including the Grand National. Sign up here £50

 


Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)

Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here

 


French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)

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Free tip

The Masters

The 83rd Masters starts next Thursday.

The aim here is to complement Neil Channing’s work where he will look at a whole range of markets in a write up typically out 24 hours before the event and I will look beyond the top 15 in the outright and attempt to identify some “live” outsiders. 

In previous years I’ve gone into a number of the factors that influence how the Masters plays out. Just briefly:

  1. Fairways are mown against the hole direction to minimise driving distance, effectively meaning the course plays close to 7,700 yards. This length puts shorter hitters at a big disadvantage.
  2. Putting surfaces can rate at anything up to 14 on the Stimpmeter, assuming the weather is ok.
  3. A player must be aggressive on the four par-5s and minimise bogeys across the rest of the course via greens in regulation, scrambling and solid short to medium distance putting.

Key features of recent winners have been

  1. Since 2011 in-form players have dominated with Adam Scott in 2013 being the only player to feature with as little as a single top 10 in the season’s events prior to the Masters.
  2. Every winner since 2008 has been in the top 35% in terms of power hitting on Tour measured by Distance to Apex (Distance in yards from the Tee to the Apex on measured Par 4 and Par 5 tee shots)
  3. Reach the Par fives in two. Last year Reed topped par-5 scoring, with a score of -13 across the 16 Par fives.

My shortlist of players outside the top twenty of the betting is as follows, from biggest price down:

Charles Howell III won the RSM Classic late in 2018 his first USPGA win for 11 years. Since then he hasn’t missed a cut, has six top 20 finishes and three top tens. He is inside the top third in five of the six major stats categories, including second on tour in greens in regulation. He is from Augusta, and has five top 30s in 8 Masters appearances, and is back in the field for the first time since 2012. A decent each way prospect at a three figure price.

Cameron Smith tied 5th in the Masters last year on his second appearance. He has three top tens in 2019 and is a good scrambler and putter, helping him to be competitive here last year despite not being the longest hitter. Pretty much overlooked at 80-1.

Tony Finau finished 2nd in the WGC HSBC Champions this season and is a “bomber”: top 15 on the PGA Tour in driving distance and top third in the putting stats. He finished tied for 10th on one leg on his Masters debut last year after being hobbled in the Par three competition and had three top tens in four majors last year. Hasn’t been in great form recently, which gives us a price outside the top 20 in the betting. If I backed one of my three, it would be him.

Writing over a week before the event the standard terms across the mark are five places one quarter the odds, and this is before the announcement of any industry promotional offers which I would wait for the extra each-way places.

6 points each way Tony Finau 45/1 each way (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Bet365 and Betfred

4 points each way Cameron Smith 80/1 each way (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Bet365 and BetVictor

3 points each way Charles Howell III 125/1 each way (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Bet365 and William Hill

 


Compensation

With a fortnight to go until the 2019 NFL Draft the role of compensatory picks is being looked at again. The original idea behind league awarded draft picks was to help maintain parity in the NFL: The compensatory pick formula gives additional picks to teams that have lost high-priced free agents to other teams in the off-season.

However in the years since the NFL started awarding compensatory picks, they’ve actually helped the best teams stay on top. That is again the case this year where the two Super Bowl participants the Patriots and Rams were the only teams that received two third round compensatory picks.

Compensatory picks have gone to good teams who lost good players that signed high-priced contracts elsewhere.

Also benefiting the best teams is the fact that their success gives job security to their decision makers, and a front office that is secure in its job is willing to play the long game and wait out free agency this year to get compensatory picks next year and thus stockpile young talent on rookie contracts. On bad teams, the General Manager often knows he’s on thin ice and might lose his job without a winning season, so he needs to sign free agents who can help this year, not wait for compensatory picks next year. It’s no coincidence that the Ravens, who had the league’s longest-tenured General Manager in Ozzie Newsome, are also the team that has acquired the most compensatory picks since the system started. Newsome knew he had job security, which made him feel comfortable building for the future with compensatory picks, which in turn help his job security.

So while compensatory picks were implemented for the sake of parity in theory, in practice they’ve had the opposite effect: Compensatory picks help the top teams stay on top and work against parity.

Assuming UK bookmakers offer sufficient markets, which has become trickier year by year recently, I will write up the NFL draft markets in advance of the start of the draft on Friday 26th April.

 


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

The Road to Riches weekend of 30th-31st March

Posted on 29 Mar 2019 07:44 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur

- Racing, the start of the new flat season at Doncaster. Over the jumps at Stratford and Uttoxeter. All weather racing at Kempton and Southwell.

- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues, and the start of the English County Championship next Friday

- Golf, WGC-Dell Technologies Matchplay in Austin and the Hero Indian Open on the European Tour

- Tennis, ATP Miami


Aintree Grand National Festival (4th-6th April)

Neil Channing’s full package costs £99.99 and is available here

 


Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)

Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here

 


Free tip

European Rugby Champions Cup Quarter-Final

Saturday 12.45pm Edinburgh v Munster (Channel 4)

Edinburgh won Pool 5 with five wins out of six ahead of French sides Montpellier and Toulon to earn the fourth seed in the Quarter finals. Both Edinburgh and Glasgow made the quarter finals, a sign of the growing strength of Scottish franchise rugby. Edinburgh probably won the weakest pool though, with Toulon not the force they were and Montpellier lost three games in the pool.

Edinburgh warmed up for this game with an impressive 24-11 Pro 14 victory over Leinster last weekend. They provide the majority of the national side pack, and Barclay and Watson, both injured for much of the season are fit to give them a back row that is likely to be a real nuisance alongside the very powerful Bill Mata.

Munster reached the semi finals last season and qualified for the quarter finals this season by winning a tough pool including Exeter and Castres with four wins, a draw and a single loss. That record was only good for the fifth seed hence they are the group winner with the away quarter final. Crucially here they have Peter O’Mahoney and CJ Stander to counter the Edinburgh back row threat and in 23 year old Joey Carberry at fly half they have a burgeoning talent and the top point scorer in the competition this season.

Munster are a tough experienced outfit in knockout rugby and are 4/7 favourites outright to win this tie and -5 on the handicap at 10/11. I do feel they are likely to win in what could be a close contest and the 6/4 Betfred offers about a Munster 1-12 point win in the winning margin market is the favoured bet.

10 points Munster to win by 1-12 points 7/4 Betfair Sportsbook, 13/8 PaddyPower, 6/4 Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral


Racing to the Top

This weekend the column’s ante-post European Rugby Champions Cup Club Racing 92 host Toulouse in the quarter finals of the competition.

Racing won their group to finish as second seeds for the quarter finals, and therefore a home tie against one of the three group runners up, with a path to the final that would probably involve beating defending champions Leinster (again at home) were they to beat Toulouse this weekend, which is a tough fixture as Toulouse are hugely on the way back up, top of the French Top 14 and playing with huge confidence.  

Whether or not Racing succeed this season, the building blocks are now in place for them to succeed the likes of Saracens, Toulon and Leinster as the powerhouse and perennial favourites of these European competitions.

One of the final off the field staging points on this transition was the move to a new stadium at La Defense in Paris. The previous stadium hosted the 1924 Olympics and was a hindrance in terms of facilities and attracting players, whilst it didn’t provide the passionate atmosphere seen to good effect at Toulon, Clermont and Montpellier. The new stadium has a capacity of 40,000, the largest indoor arena in Europe, and it is like playing rugby in a rock venue with dark stands, strobe lighting and big screens. The artificial turf is short and suits the desired quick, expansive playing style.

Racing are a terrific offloading side, and the recruitment of the brilliant Finn Russell at fly half has taken that to the next stage. Russell replaced Dan Carter, who was a name to help to build the brand towards the end of his career but the Scotland fly half could be more valuable to Racing.

Recruitment is now key. Racing no longer need to chase the older big names. Having also built a state-of-the-art training facility to go with their space-age stadium, they should be in a position to attract players in their prime, not just those looking for a final payday.

Like a lot of French teams, built to withstand the rigours of the Top 14 where every week is a battle, Racing had a massive pack of forwards which lumbered from set piece to set piece and delivered ball to individual (often imported) talents in the backs. That style has evolved with the forwards now looking to off-load and this is developing through their home grown players. This has developed a team that isn’t too consistent domestically (sixth in the top 14) but is more attuned to winning European matches.

Racing are great to watch, are only going to get better and are a team to be “onside” with in betting markets in seasons to come until such time as they overtake the likes of Saracens and Leinster at the head of markets as competitions start.

 


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th March

Posted on 22 Mar 2019 09:42 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, European Championship Qualifying starts, England v the Czech Republic on Friday night

- Racing, Over the jumps on Saturday at Bangor, Kelso and Newbury. All weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield

- Cricket, the start of the 2019 IPL on Saturday

- Golf, On the USPGA the Valspar Championship at TPC Sawgrass and the Maybank Championship in Malaysia on the European Tour

- Tennis, ATP Miami


Aintree Grand National Festival (4th-6th April)

Neil Channing’s full package costs £99.99 and is available here


 

Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)

Seventeen weeks of write ups and bets by Nigel Seeley for £50 sign up here

 


Free tip

County Championship Division Two 2019

In common with recent years this remains a good market for ante-post betting this year. Ten sides are in the division with as many of six of them unlikely to win. They don’t spend up to salary cap limits and don’t have the finances (from membership numbers to sponsorships) of those at top of Division two of whom play on test grounds (Lancashire and Middlesex, notably, this season)

The attractiveness of the betting market next year reduces substantially when it moves to an eight team competition in a re-organisation of domestic cricket

There is a big difference in standard and resources between Division one and most Division Two sides and in 2018 one of the “big hitters” Lancashire were relegated putting another perennial Division one side in the division.

The shape of the betting market for 2019 is as follows:

Lancashire 9/4

Middlesex 3/1

Sussex 9/2

Worcs 8/1

20/1 bar the top 4

Last season’s division two finished as follows:

Warwickshire 242 points

Kent 221

Sussex 186

Middlesex 179

No other side achieved more than five wins and all were more than 20 points behind the top four sides. Each side plays 14 matches, so only plays five of the nine other teams twice

Again this year it is a two tier division and again this is exacerbated by some of the best young players in the division being poached by Division one clubs including Aneurin Donald (from Glamorgan), Ben Duckett (from Northants) and Joe Clarke (from Worcs).

Each way odds this time again are 1/5 1,2,3

Lancashire and Middlesex are obviously warm favourites, Lancashire in particular should win the division, but they are not the betting prospect that Sussex are with a talented young squad under the excellent coach Jason Gillespie, albeit one that might be without Jofra Archer for the World Cup period. This is a squad that should compete for the title and would be very disappointed if they were outside the top three ( for the each way return ). Sussex only play Lancashire once and of the sides they play twice, three are Durham, Northants and Gloucestershire so the fixtures have fallen relatively kindly.

10 points each way Sussex at 9/2 (1/5 1,2,3) Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower 

Hundred Up

There is a lot of scepticism about the new English domestic cricket competition The Hundred. In a recent survey only 12% of county members supported the new competition, the PR has been ineffective and its far from certain that the new audience to whom the competition is aimed will be enthused by it.

As its latest stage of progress the ECB has unveiled the main playing conditions for the new 100-ball format.

While the eight grounds for the tournament were confirmed 12 months ago, and a player draft has been scheduled for the autumn, there is no further detail yet on news of the teams or whether they will incorporate cities or regions. The event will take place during a five-week period in the summer of 2020.

The format will be 100 balls per side, with a change of ends after every 10 deliveries. Bowlers will deliver either five or 10 consecutive balls but are restricted to a maximum of 20 per match, while each fielding side gets a strategic timeout of up to two and a half minutes.

A 25-ball powerplay will start each side's innings, where only two fielders will be allowed outside the initial 30-yard circle.

Many of these innovations were piloted across six days last September at Loughborough and Trent Bridge.

The Hundred is an attempt to reach into fans who otherwise have not been engaged by the game for reasons of accessibility, perception or cost. It will bring the sport back from behind the Sky paywall, too. Whether that can succeed while abandoning the core of existing fans remains a moot point.


Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here 


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase

 

 

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