The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th February

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Aston Villa v Manchester United.
• Rugby Union, the second round of Six Nations matches.
• Cricket, England’s test series in India continues, the third test match in Rajkot next week.
• Golf, the Genesis Invitational on the USPGA
• Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Rotterdam.

Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12^th-Friday 15^th March

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here

The Super Bowl

Super Bowl LVIII takes place in Las Vegas this Sunday 11^th February between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. After a profitable season so far our write up (including Neil’s prop bets) is available today (Thursday) for only £25 here 

Free Tip

The Six Nations

Wales went into their opening game of the 2024 Six Nations at home against Scotland with two full teams worth of players missing through injuries, retirements and ineligibity (players abroad must have 25 caps or more to be available for selection) and were forced to select a highly inexperienced team.

Coach Warren Gatland went into the game saying that he didn’t know what his best 23 was. During the first half of a game that was Wales’ first at the start of a new four year World Cup cycle the omens were poor. By half time the side was 20-0 behind and soon 27-0 behind playing a limited kicking-based game with a bad set-piece, aimless kicking, and limited carry forward in attack. Afterwards Gatland described it as “the worst forty-minute performance in my whole rugby career as a coach”.

Then they abandoned structure, changed players, tempo and pace and scored 26 points in a 23-minute period with Scotland down to 14 men and seemingly lacking stamina and fitness.

Next in the Championship they go to Twickenham this weekend as 12-point underdogs before playing Ireland away and France at home.

In terms of this weekend Wales are boosted by the availability of North and Rowlands and their ball-carrying and the team selection with seven changes starting players who finished against Scotland suggests that Wales will attempt to play their expansive style from that Scotland comeback, even if that wasn’t Gatland’s original plan for the tournament. This makes sense, as they don’t have the forward heft to go toe-to-toe with the English let alone Ireland or France later in the tournament.

The danger is that we take the second half for Wales last weekend and assume that will be their performance level for the rest of the tournament. Wales were so bad in the first half and the second half they basically ran everything but that shouldn’t work long term.

The likelihood must be that Wales will be going into their final game in March, at home to Italy, winless in the tournament.

Italy meanwhile lost their first match 27-24 to England in Rome but in Gonzalo Quesada’s first match in charge looked promising in attack, leading 17-8 and scoring three tries, finishing with a losing bonus point.

Italy were particularly impressive in the first and last Quarters of the game but lacked skill in the territorial game. With England superior at the line-out and displaying very quick rush defense after some early teething problems Italy spent too much time handling in their own half and putting themselves under pressure. There is still a lot of room for improvement through the tournament.

Italy go to Ireland and France this tournament and have Scotland at home. They too are likely to be going into their last match winless.

Firms offer a “To finish bottom” Six Nations market, ahead of this weekend priced as follows:

Italy 1/3

Wales 4/1

Assuming both teams are winless ahead of the final round, taking Italy at 1/3 in this market is the equivalent of Wales being -12 or os on the handicap in that game. It seems a stretch to expect them to win by two scores against any Six Nations team, even Italy and Wales at 4/1 to finish bottom is a value play in this market.

10 points Wales to finish bottom of the Six Nations at 9/2 SkyBet, 4/1 with William Hill, BetVictor, Coral/Ladbrokes.

Go fourth and…

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell has become known for being very aggressive on fourth downs throughout his head coaching career and continued this in the most important game in Lions’ history: A road affair in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers.

Campbell had outpaced all coaches in fourth down aggressiveness during the regular season, going for it on 34% of Detroit’s fourth down conversion opportunities rather than punting or kicking a field goal depending on the field position for the decision. That 34% meant the Lions were the most aggressive fourth down team of the 21st Century, according to ESPN Stats & Information Research.

Campbell went for it on two second-half fourth downs in Detroit’s title game loss to San Francisco. The Lions failed on both conversion attempts, one of them a fourth and two from the Niners’ 28-yard line early in the third quarter, the other a fourth and three from the 49ers’ 30-yard line with roughly 10 minutes to go in the game.

Analytics experts regarded both decisions as sound with both marginally increasing Detroit’s win odds. These fourth down attempts did not work out the way Campbell had hoped. Detroit’s defense couldn’t fend off the 49ers and the Lions blew a 24-7 halftime advantage to lose, 34-31.

This NFC title game was a watershed moment in football analytics. A head coach doing anything and everything to maximise his team’s win probability is a win for the so-called analytics movement, even if it’s widely interpreted as an utter failure because the Lions did not win.

Through three seasons at the helm of the Lions, Campbell has refused to lose in a traditional way despite constant calls from the media and NFL fans for him to tone down his fourth down aggresion. Lions players have fully backed Campbell’s push-back against NFL fourth down group-think. That includes Jared Goff, who, like his coach, had no regrets about trying to convert second-half fourth downs as underdogs facing a high-powered offense that showed no signs of stopping in the final two quarters, bucking the fourth down wisdom passed down through generations of coaches who did not want to fail untraditionally and lose their jobs.

It can be argued that the Lions were not aggressive enough in the game. The field goal team came out with 10 seconds remaining in the second quarter with a chance to go up 28-7 an outcome that would have increased Detroit’s win probability by nearly 5% at the time.

Campbell wants to win. For that he was besieged with criticism from results-based analysts and talking heads citing the successes of conservative coaches from bygone eras, analysts who care not for win probability or expected points or anything that might be found on a spreadsheet, but only for what happened, for the final outcome..

During the second half the Lions saw a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble in his own half, a long Brandon Aiyuk reception off the defender’s helmet on one of Brock Purdy’s many would-be postseason interceptions and a critical fourth down dropJosh Reynolds drop: These things happen and were even more influential on the final result than the fourth down decisions on their own.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd and 4th February

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool.
• Rugby Union, the first round of Six Nations matches.
• Cricket, England’s test series in India continues, the second test match in Visakhapatnam.
• Golf, the Phoenix Open on the USPGA and the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Opens in Cordoba, Dallas and Marseille.

Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12^th-Friday 15^th March

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here.

The Super Bowl

Super Bowl LVIII takes place in Las Vegas next Sunday 11^th February between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. After a profitable season so far our write up (including Neil’s prop bets) will be available next week for only £25 here.

Free Tip

Six Nations Round 1 France v Ireland Friday 8pm Marseille

This first match of the 2024 Six Nations could so easily have been a repeat of last Autumn’s Rugby World Cup Final. However Fance lost by a point to South Africa and Ireland lost by four points to New Zealand both in the Quarter-Finals. This after Fracne beat New Zealand and Ireland beat South Africa in the pool stages.

In the 2023 Six Nations Ireland won the Grand Slam beating France in a great attacking game in Dublin. France and Ireland are by some distance  the dominant forces in European rugby and the last two years has effectively been a two nations tournament. France and Ireland have shared grand slams with home advantage for both the difference between a Grand Slam or finishing second.

It isn’t impossible but, on all known form, it would be a big surprise for any of the other four teams to beat these two teams this year. That’s shown in outright odds for the tournament. France 6/5 favourites, Ireland 7/4 and 6/1 bar the front two.

France have won the last two home meetings between these two sides in the Six Nations. Ireland has not won in France since their close 15-13 win in 2018.

France are not in a developmental phase. 21 of the 34-man World Cup squad are in the squad for this tournament and the strength of the domestic Top 14 and the successful U20 teams (France have won the last three U20 World Championships) are producing a conveyor belt of young talent that is being fed into the senior squad .

That said France have important absentees for this match and tournament. The brilliant Antoine Dupont, captain and scrum-half is on secondment to the sevens squad ahead of the Paris Olympics and they have two losses in the pack in back row forward Jelonch and second row Meafou. They of course can still call on a world class core of players from goal-kicking full back Ramos to brilliant winger Penaud, veteran centre Fickou and the back rows Alldritt and Ollivon behind a huge front five.

Lucu replaces Dupont at scrum half, alongside his club partner at Bordeaux Bègles’ fly half, Matthieu Jalibert. The key question will be whether the scrum half can maintain the tempo and the link between forwards and backs that Dupont manages so effortlessly.

Ireland meanwhile are post the retirement of the talismanic Johnny Sexton though the remainder of the side is like France, experienced. At fly-half relacing Sexton the options were Jack Crowley, Ciaran Frawley and Harry Byrne who have a combined total of just 12 appearances. As the starter Crowley has to play flat to create the dangerous attacking lines and angles off fast ball. There’s no doubt he is a good kicker and tactician, but France away is a big first test to see if there can be continuity of style.

For the match France are 4/7 favourites, Ireland 13/8 and the Draw 22/1. France are -3 on the handicap.

I expect France will win, narrowly and turn to the winning margin market where France to win by 1-7 points is 11/4 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power and 13/5 BetVictor.

Other firms offer 1-5 and 6-10 as winning margins and Dutching between these two at level stakes at 4-1 1-5 points and 5-1 6-10 points with William Hill is an alternative to the below creating a smoothed price of around 5/2

12 points France to win by 1-7 points 3/1 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power and 11/4 BetVictor.

A love letter to Test Cricket

These days to admit you like test cricket is to almost suggest you are a crusty relic from another age. It’s rhythms are too slow for modern life and it usually lacks the instant gratification of a game moving to shorter and shorter formats from 50 overs to T20 franchises, the Hundred and now T10s.

Test cricket has been fighting for relevance within this changing landscape and been beset by franchise cricket’s effect on schedules, player availability and lower funding for the longest format of the game in many countries, that has seen Test cricket marginalised outside the top three countries India, Australia and England. Recently that reached its nadir with South Africa forced to select a third choice test team for a tour of New Zealand because of a clash with their own domestic SAT20 tournament, and we now increasingly see what were three and five test match series reduced to two matches by the demands of an ever more-crowded multi-format schedule.

So last Sunday to see two teams winning thrilling Tests away from home in arguably the toughest countries to tour on the same day was a great sight. It was ultimately One of the great days in Test cricket history and a reminder that you simply don’t get the same emotional ups and downs in any other format. Test cricket retains its capacity to surprise and thrill.

Taking England first they were 163/5 in their second innings on Day three in Hyderabad, still 27 behind India, when Ben Stokes got out. From that position to go on to win was an inconceivable result.

India had a 190 first-innings lead, there were not many runs for Root or Bairstow and England had picked an unbalanced team whose callow spinners had really struggled in the first innings. Leach was injured too Then came Ollie Pope’s 196 and Tom Hartley’s recovery. From being hit for two sixes in his first over in Test cricket and consigned to one of the costliest analyses for a debutant with 2-131 in the second innings he took the first seven-wicket haul by an English spinner on Test debut since Jim Laker with 7-62.

Bazball was given no chance in India but England’s win had a huge amount to do with the positive environment created for players. Pope could do what he did because that is the philosophy of Bazball: rather get out reverse-scooping than defending like he did in the first innings. Stokes meanwhile persisted with Hartley during the difficult first innings exactly as he had promised him prior to the game.

India had never lost a Test at home after leading by 100+ runs after the first innings and have now gone three consecutive home Tests without a win. This was only their fourth home defeat in a decade. Since the start of 2013, England had played nine Tests in India, lost seven of them and won only once.

The England series in India now moves onto Viskhatpatnam, Ranchi, Rajkot and finally Dharamsala in the Himalayas. Unfamiliar Test match venues and assumed in all bar Dharamsala to be very spin friendly and Tourist player difficult. It will be interesting to see what pitches are prepared now. Maybe India’s vastly experienced spin attack of Jadeja, Ashwin and Axar will have a bigger advantage on flat pitches given their skills in those conditions?

England's challenges though can hardly be compared to those of West Indies: England do not, in general, struggle to retain the services of their best players and do not face anywhere like the same financial challenges. So on Sunday to wake up to the sight of a team minus many players scattered across the world playing for franchises in T20, led by a young Guyanese pace bowler who only took up cricket in 2018 beating Australia in Brisbane was also a thrill.

Shamar Joseph hails from a village with 350 people. It takes two days to reach this village from the capital on a boat and Joseph worked as a logger, then moved to the capital and worked as a labourer and then a security guard for 12 hours. At best could play cricket only on a Sunday. First selected for Guyana in 2023 he debuted for the West Indies in this series. He bought an arm guard only three days before the Test. The West Indies were completely written off after heavy defeat in first test but Jospeh took five wickets on his debut.

In a tight second test, a day-night game played on a spicy pitch with a pink ball Jospeh suffered a broken toe batting. He was given the green light to bowl in the last innings an hour before paly after an injection. He then took.7-68 to lead the West Indies to their first win in Australia since Brian Lara’s team in 1997. Even better, afterwards he stated he wants to commit to the Test game not T20s.

The Australian Test summer has seen the home teams surprisingly challenged by inexperienced Pakistan and West Indies teams on tough surfaces with none of the five matches going into the fifth day. Australia lost a match at home for the first time since losing to India at the Gabba in January 2021 and suffered their first defeat in 12 day-nighters.

Perhaps after this weekend the leaders of cricket’s national boards might be inspired to redouble their efforts to protect the Test cricket format. It would be nice to think they have been reminded that this format's decline is not inevitable. That it can, still attract an audience, still provide compelling entertainment and be viable.

To do all those things, it needs to remain competitive. It needs to see these shock results. It needs to not be predictable and cricket is going to need to level the playing field distributing revenue differently and ensure the national boards can afford to see off the advances of the franchise leagues. They might look at introducing windows for Test cricket to ensure all players are available.

It might be a long shot, particularly for India’s BCCI and the ECB, but let’s hope.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £71,656 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Kempton and Newcastle
• Football, the FA Cup fourth round
• -NFL, the Conference Championships
• Cricket, England’s test series in India continues.
• Golf, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA and the Bahrain Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, ATP Open Sud de France in Montpellier

Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12^th-Friday 15^th March

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here 

Free Tip

The 2024 Six Nations

Ireland won their fourth Grand Slam in the 2023 Six Nations. This year in the aftermath of the recent Rugby World Cup there is high turnover in each team’s squad due to retirements and injuries. That's the nature of a World Cup cycle, pus this time several marquee players are missing chasing new opportunities. Antoine Dupont the French Captain for example is seconded to the French Olympic Sevens team, Louis Rees-Zammit is trying the NFL’s International Player Pathway.

That rebuilding element varies from squad to squad, and the number of players in the 2023 World Cup Squad still in the 2024 Six Nations squad is as follows: Scotland 28 Ireland 25 France 22 Italy 20 Wales 19 England 17. Scotland and Ireland should maintain some continuity, Wales especially have a very young squad and England are the most injury-hit side, unsurprisingly given the high demands on their top players from club and country. Only one team has a new coach, Italy.

The tournament starts on Friday 2^nd March with the possibly defining fixture this year, France v Ireland in Marseille

It being a five match per team competition half of the teams play three games at home and 2 away, the other three vice versa. This time round both France and Ireland have three games at home, but France have the advantage of not travelling to Dublin where they were beaten last year.

France have to travel to Murrayfield and Twickenham, the Scotland game in particular looks a tricky one, but even without Dupont the squad is immensely strong with established players constantly supplemented by recruits from the highly successful U20 team of recent years.

Ireland have to deal with the retirement of Jonny Sexton and that first game trip to France but have comparatively little squad turnover and a lot of depth. With Wales and Scotland at home and a winnable trip to England, the triple crown is very much on the agenda.

England also have three games at home but will be underdogs at home to Ireland and at Scotland and France in a squad without seven of their Rugby World Cup Semi Final XV. Without them hit it might be an ask to expect more than 2 wins this year. For the longer term, following a World Cup semi-final assisted by a kind draw in which they rarely veered from the kicking and territory strategy, it would be good to see some signs of an attacking style emerging though the loss through injury of the form centre Ollie Lawrence this week is a blow. England’s recent record in the Six Nations is uninspiring with a 40% win record across the last three championships and 50% across the last six.

Wales have a 21-year-old captain and also are in the post Wyn-Jones and Biggar era. There are huge problems in the domestic game, and a lack of squad depth across key areas such as front row and the backs. A tough championship awaits.

As usual Italy are the rank outsiders, one win would be success.

Scotland have an established squad and a well-developed attacking style in which Finn Russell and the backline particularly two world class wingers operate. With continuity they are a dark horse to outperform their odds following three wins and third place finish last season

Outright Odds for the tournament are:

France 5/4, Ireland 6/4, England 6/1, Scotland 14/1, Wales 20/1, Italy 500/1

France are 5/2 to win the grand slam, Ireland 11/10 to win the triple crown (beat England, Wales and Scotland). The latter is my main suggested bet this season

20 points Ireland to win the Triple Crown at 7/5 with Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 6/5 BetVictor, 11/10 William Hill and Betfred

The other bet is far more speculative. Scotland are favourites to win in Cardiff first up. I think they’ll win in Rome and beat England at home. Anything other than a loss in Dublin would be a surprise. That’s theoretically three wins to match last season. Could they beat France at home mid-tournament to get a fourth win and a chance of a share of a title/the winner coming down to tie-breakers starting with points difference? I’d suggest beating France at home is a reasonable possibility this year.

5 points Scotland to win the Six Nations at 12/1 Betfred and William Hill

From Rugby to the NFL?

Last week’s news that Gloucester, Wales and British Lions wing Louis Rees-Zammit has chosen to attempt a career in the NFL came as a complete surprise, coming as it did just a fortnight before the 2024 Six Nations and hours before the announcement of the Wales squad for the tournament.

Rees-Zammit is entering the NFL International Player Pathway which gives elite athletes from around the world and a number of different sports the chance to earn a place on an NFL roster and increase the number of international players in the league.

To start with Rees-Zammit goes to a training camp in Florida at the end of this month and if he does well enough he will be allocated to an NFL team and into their training camp through the month of August ahead of the new NFL season in September.

With no experience of playing the sport and much to learn any new International player faces a very long shot of making a roster in their first year and are more likely to stay within the International Player Pathway for the following off-season.

To start with the IPP pays a fee of $50,000, getting onto an NFL practice squad pays $175,000 whilst the minimum player salary for a rostered player is $750,000 plus for a marketable player like Rees-Zammit the probability of marketing dollars on top from an organisation very keen to expand globally. Top NFL wide receivers can currently attract contracts in the region of $22-23m a year guaranteed.

Rees-Zammit is though to have turned down a $300,000 contract renewal from Gloucester and a massive offer from Japan to chase the dream.

Rees-Zammit has been listed as a running back/wide receiver intending to play as a hybrid player. At 6 ft 3 and 190 lbs and super-fast I would suggest wide receiver looks the most likely position where his speed and ball skills would translate well. The fastest recorded player in the NFL is the Dolphins Tyreek Hill at over 22mph in game. Rees Zammit was recently recorded at 24.2mph by tracking data.

As to other positions he doesn’t have a typical body type for running back, where payers tend to have a lower centre of gravity. Cornerback given his ball skills and tackling experience would be a possibility, but it’s a highly technical position requiring mirroring wide-receivers. Kick and Punt returner would certainly be an option, but the role is gradually being legislated out of the league for safety reasons, and its less and less a full-time role on an NFL roster.

Even at wide receiver, the task is far from simple. There is an NFL history of track stars translating to the position, the most famous was the US Olympic Hurdle Renaldo Nehemiah with the 49ers in the 1980s, but by and large these speedsters were limited to “go” routes and the deep passing game. To have a long future at the position a variety of routes need to be learnt, which very few players from other sports have ever succeeded at.

It's a long shot for Rees-Zammit to transfer successfully but at 22 years old we can understand why it’s worth a go. If it doesn’t work he won’t be short of offers to return to Rugby with the prospect of the 2025 British Lions Tour to Australia on the horizon too.

 

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Results as at 1^st January 2024 = points bet 39142 profit +2170 ROI +5.45% Full details here

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £71,656 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Football, Premier League matches
• NFL, Divisional Round of the Play-Offs
• Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Matches
• Cricket, England’s test series in India starts next week.
• Golf, the Farmers Insurance Open on the USPGA and the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, the Australian Open

Free Tip

Investec Champions Cup Pool 4 Sale v La Rochelle Sunday 1pm

This weekend sees the final round of pool matches, ahead of the Six Nations and with the last sixteen and the start of the knockout stages in April.

It’s been a strange competition this year, particularly for the form of the French sides which has been very mixed. Whilst Toulouse and Bordeaux have been hugely impressive, Bordeaux’s 55 points against Saracens last weekend was a sensational performance other teams such as Racing, Stade, Lyon, Bayonne and holders La Rochelle have struggled at times and in some cases motivation has clearly been a factor with far from first choice team selections for many away matches.

The competition format has attracted a lot of grumbles, notably the disadvantage of some sides having to travel to South Africa for matches then turn round and play at home six days later, whilst others haven’t had that travel at all. Meanwhile the South African sides have often sent B teams to Europe, unsurprisingly when often faced with a home tie just six days later.

Anyway, we are now at the business end of the four pools, where four of six teams go through from each.

Pool 4, the “Pool of Death” this year featuring Leinster and La Rochelle, now sees a straight shoot-out for the fourth qualifying spot between Sale and La Rochelle.

La Rochelle, defending champions and winners for the last two years and favourites to do the treble before the competition started began with a 16-9 home loss to Leinster and went down narrowly to the Stormers in Cape Town 21-20. These results mirrored what has been an inconsistent season domestically too, only 8^th in the Top 14 with six wins and six losses so far.

Right up against it and needing to win their last two Pool matches to qualify they then routed Leicester 45-12 last Sunday and are now in a position to win and in this weekend in Manchester. Under Irish coach Ronan O’Gara La Rochelle are a fearsome prospect when on song, with a big pack headlined by Skelton and Alldritt and huge fitness helping their “keep the ball alive” mantra.

Going to Sale sees them visit another side in more mixed form this season compared to last. Last season they finished runners-up to Saracens, this year they are fifth in the Premiership with 7 wins from 11 matches. In the Champions Cup they have one win, 28-5 at home to Stade Francais but had a rough draw of away ties, where they lost 37-27 to Leinster and 31-24 to the Stormers last weekend.

Without the injured George Ford and Tom Curry, Sale are still a competitive well drilled outfit, but I doubt they can live with La Rochelle even at home.

11 points La Rochelle -6 at 10/11 widely available.

Racing to France

The misunderstood Owen Farrell, hounded out of International rugby for his mental well-being because of abuse from supporters will no longer be committed to playing in domestic rugby to ensure he is available for selection for the national team. With the financial rewards under the English and French salary caps very different, its not a surprise that Racing92 in Paris and Head Coach Stuart Lancaster would like him to move. Should Farrell in the near future sign a two year deal with Racing, he’d be absent from the England side until at least 2026.

Under the RFU’s current rules, the England coach is unable to call up players playing abroad, which in this era of player movement and differing salary caps is hugely anachronistic. It is a policy borne out of a negative mindset and all about defending the domestic game. That Farrell aside a huge talent like Henry Arundell has moved to France despite the edict shows how ludicrous it is.

That Farrell is likely to be headed to Racing92 isn’t s surprise. They are glamorous and pay top whack. There is an old link between the Farrell family and Lancaster. Despite the playing budget and attracting such superstars as Kolisi and until recently Finn Russell, Racing have only won the French Top 14 six times in their history and once since the current chairman took over 19 years ago. They’ve reached three European Cup finals, losing them all.

The salary cap in France is £9.3m per club. If clubs then provide international players for France, they earn more than £200,000 per player for the season. In England, the salary cap now stands at less than £6m, which is one of the motivating factors behind the exodus of players to club rugby in France and Japan. Next season the salary cap rises to £6.4m per Premiership club, though few clubs are likely to be able to afford that much. Compensation in England for the loss of players, and they are often away for well over half of each club season, is relatively insignificant. French clubs are at a massive advantage through the funding they receive from their municipalities and regional authorities. In England, individual benefactors keep most of the clubs going but without hope of any reward on their “investment”.

Meanwhile Wales could be set to lose a promising young wing, following recent reports regarding the future of Mason Grady. The Cardiff player has been linked with four Premiership clubs, and could be on his way out of Wales when his contract expires this Summer. Should Grady leave Cardiff in favour of a move to England, he will rule himself out of future Wales test matches, due to agreements in place with the WRU. Welsh players with less than 25 test match appearances playing outside Wales are ineligible to play for Warren Gatland’s side.

With Welsh rugby in a parlous financial state the rule risks damaging the national side hugely, as many players are going to leave due to the rewards on offer elsewhere given the risks involved in a short career at the top level.

The argument goes that Wales has to retain a cap rule. Without it, virtually the entire Wales squad will be based outside the country, which would wreck Warren Gatland's preparation programme and the Welsh teams would have to pay overseas clubs for additional player release time. However it has to be in place alongside at least competitive wage offers, of which there is only a slim prospect.

This is why the 25-cap rule is going to have to go soon. Wales can’t expect their up and coming players to limit their earnings for the lure of a national jersey. It's akin to forcing Gareth Bale to have to have played for Cardiff or Swansea for the first three years of his International career.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Results as at 1^st January 2024 = points bet 39142 profit +2170 ROI +5.45% Full details here

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £71,656 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th January

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
• Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Tottenham
• -NFL, the start of the Play-Offs, Wild Card Weekend
• Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Matches
• Golf, the American Express on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour
• Tennis, the Australian Open

Free Tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Bordeaux-Begles v Saracens Pool 1 5.30pm Sunday

Bordeaux are one of the best funded teams in the French top 14, and thanks to recruitment in the off-season now field an all-international back-line featuring Lucu (Dupont’s understudy), Jalibert at 10, Moefana at 12, and first choice wingers Bielle-Biarrey and Penaud.

Well coached and incisive they at an exciting team to watch, currently second in the domestic league. They have won their last six games across all competitions averaging 34 points a game.

Saracens came into this competition in the top five in the betting, but that’s probably because of past performances rather than form this season, where they are currently 6^th of 10 with five losses in their first eleven matches.

Such is the structure of the ERCC this season, with four teams from each pool making the knockout stages that Saracens are still a reasonable prospect to go deep in this competition but they are not the force that they were. Recent form is also troubling, having lost four of their last six games including in the Premiership to Sale, Northampton and Leicester.

Speculation that a talismanic figure at the club such as Owen Farrell is about to leave for Racing92 might be unsettling and is a measure of the difficulty the domestic game is going to have retaining talent with the relative financial strength of the French and English games.

Still for now Saracens can field a line up including Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Ben Earl, Farrell and Elliot Daly.

Bordeaux’s results so far in Europe are a 41-5 win away at Connacht in bad weather and a 36-17 home win against Bristol before Christmas. Saracens faced a tough task in the first match in the competition, travelling to altitude in South Africa and losing 27-16 to the Bulls before returning home and beating Connacht 55-36.

Understandably enough Bordeaux are strong favourites (2/5 outright) and -8 on the handicap but the weather forecast for Sunday in the area is for a lot of rain. Expecting a flair team to win by more than a score against gritty experienced opponents might be a bit optimistic. After all if it is a game of kicking and penalties, Farrell is going to go toe-to-toe with Jalibert.

Saracens +8 at 10/11 widely available

Changes

With legalised gambling in much of the USA now NFL teams that make  mistakes with the rules regarding the reporting of injuries can create separate problems for themselves and the league.

The first tangible example of a problem came this year from the $100,000 fine on the Atlanta Falcons and then-coach Arthur Smith for failing to disclose that running back Bijan Robinson was ill in Week 7. Though he played in the game, Robinson had limited snaps and only one touch. Concealing this of course had an impact on the game planning of their opponents the Buccaneers but also led prop bettors to believe Robinson was fine. His one-touch match created an outcry among those who might have gone in a different direction if they’d known Robinson was sick and who bet on Robinson to exceed the over/under for yards and touchdowns.

The league’s decision to fine the Falcons makes it a lot easier to establish liability for deliberate fraud or misrepresentation, intentional or negligent. The challenge in a case like this becomes putting together a damages award big enough to make the case worth a lawyer’s while. Person by person the amount lost is usually too small to worry about. Add it all up however, and the money becomes potentially significant.

The league has clear rules regarding injury disclosure. Bettors reasonably rely on the fact that the information is accurate. If it’s proven that the team hid the truth, it becomes much easier to show that fair compensation is owed to bettors who relied on it.

It would be very difficult at this point for the teams and the league to claim that they have no duty to the bettors. With the NFL earning revenue from every sports book sponsorship (just watch Red Zone on a Sunday night where US viewers are encouraged to place accumulators on Draft Kings sportsbook with suggested bets) it can get, it can’t claim that the general betting public shouldn’t rely on the accuracy of the injury reports especially since the NFL has never made any effort to add a “there’s a chance the teams are hiding injuries” disclaimer to the weekly injury information.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase