Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football, European Championship Qualifying Matches including England v Malta.
- -NFL, Week Eleven
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup Final between x and y.
- Formula One, the Las Vegas Grand Prix
- Tennis the Davis Cup Finals
- Golf the Australian PGA and Joburg Opens on the DP World Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Leicester Tigers v Northampton Saints Saturday 3.05pm
The sixth round of games sees “Derby Weekend”, the first in a series of themed weekends this season including this game in the East Midlands. Northampton sit fourth in the early league table with three successive wins after two defeats to open the season, most recently 24-18 against rejuvenated Bath and then last weekend 34-19 at home to Exeter with Lawes, Ludlam and Mitchell back into the squad from World Cup duty. Traditionally a side with an attacking open style a focus this off-season has been to tighten up their defence
Leicester Tigers are in a transitional phase having lost their coaching set up to England last season and under new Coach the Australian Dan McKellar. With only one win in five matches so far this season they are 9th of 10 in the table and have conceded 24 or more points in each game including in the home 25-29 loss to Harlequins last weekend.
That display, which I watched in person, demonstrated this transitional phase well with issues in the line-out (usually a strength of the team from which they launch their driving game in the forwards) and in defence, particularly out-wide where Harlequins were in the ascendancy.
This despite the return of the World Cup players. Pollard, Wiese, Steward, Youngs, Cole and Chessum all started, Reffell, Martin and Montoya are yet to come but these players have to integrate with a new coaching team from a standing start and whilst I don’t regard a slow start as something that will cause serious problems this season in terms of final finishing position, Leicester are certainly vulnerable for now.
Odds for this game are Leicester 2/5, Northampton 2/1+ and 6-point underdogs. Northampton are decent value outright here. Saints won by a point at Welford Road in January, which was their last Premiership win on the road against teams not called Newcastle Falcons. I think they should be close to favourites here.
10 points Northampton to win at 9/4 with BetVictor and Betfred, 21/10 Bet365
Expansion
The NFL Network’s broadcast of the Kansas City Chiefs’ 21-14 win over the Dolphins from Frankfurt a fortnight ago averaged 9.6m American viewers. That was up 66% from the comparable 5.8m for Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Munich last year.
It ranks as NFLN’s most-watched international game on record. It’s the league’s second most watched (US time) morning game since the average 9.86m viewers for Dolphins vs. New York Jets from London back in 2015.
The game and it’s audience is viewed as a gateway to what is set to be a major expansion of international games coming in future years. We know we'll have three games a year in London, Germany is going to have a game and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell stated in Germany that they will definitely go to a new market in 2024. That will be either Brazil or Spain. Paris is on the agenda as well, Dublin is being eyed by the Pittsburgh Steelers too.
Each NFL team is already set to play at least one international game over the next eight years and the league has an expansive Home Marketing Areas initiative that grants each team a specific country in which they can host events and promote their franchise. Pittsburgh for example has Ireland, hence the idea of them playing in Dublin.
In addition there are suggestions that before long an NFL team will host a month long training camp in Europe and ultimately the idea of a European franchise or potentially a European division under a league expansion remains in the agenda. In the short to medium term these plans have been delayed by tax issues on both sides of the Atlantic relating to the proposed domicile of players who would be playing for a European team but potentially based in the US outside blocks of time allocated for a series of European home games.
An International Super-Bowl may be a step too far, but nevertheless International NFL expansion is set to accelerate in the next few years.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester City.
- NFL, Week Ten
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Tennis ATP World Tour Finals
- Golf the RSM Classic on the USPGA Tour and the DP World Tour Championship on the DP World Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Newcastle Falcons v Saracens Sunday 3pm
Four weeks into the new season the Newcastle Falcons are struggling having lost at Bath, at home narrowly to Gloucester and Northampton and then conceded 40 points at Harlequins last weekend in a heavy defeat, despite their four Argentinian players being back from the World Cup and in the match-day squad.
In the last three seasons Newcastle have finished 10th,12thand 11th fortunate that there has been no relegation to the Championship in operation. A play-off between the top team in the Championship and the bottom team in the Premiership has been introduced for the end of this season.
This week the Falcons have announced a coaching re-organisation including a new attack coach. Too early to have much impact for this week no doubt, but the aim is to help the team fire compared to season to date in their attacking plans.
Saracens were Premiership winners last season and runners up the year before having returned to the league following their relegation for salary cap irregularities. They started the season poorly, losing 65-10 at Exeter and 25-16 at home to Bath but have returned towards their normal form in the last fortnight, winning 24-3 at Gloucester and then beating Leicester at home 32-17 in a game in which a dozen internationals returned to the 23 straight back from the Rugby World Cup.
Even if they rotate the starting line-up here, they should have too much for Newcastle. A handicap line of Saracens -13 doesn’t look excessive with their squad and Newcastle’s poor form and as yet lack of points, 14, 14 and 12 scored in the last three weeks against weaker opponents than this.
11 points Saracens -13 points at Evens Bet365 and 10/11 generally.
Radical
In late October World Rugby ratified the concept of a biennial Nations Championship, triggering the most radical change to the structure of the sport since it went professional in 1995.
The new competition will begin in 2026 and feature two divisions of 12 teams. The fixtures will be played in July and November, culminating in a grand final and after 2030 (and potentially not until 2032 or 2034) a promotion/relegation play-off. The strategy is that this will create a narrative around the July and November fixtures which will drive up the broadcast and commercial revenues
The Nations Championship, which will be pitched as a north v south battle, paves the way for an expanded 24-team men’s World Cup from 2027, another of World Rugby’s long-held ambitions.
Japan and Fiji will be invited to join the ten nations from those Six Nations and Rugby Championship in the top flight. Criticism of the concept is widespread. The proposal required 75% approval from the World Rugby council, or 39 votes from 55. It was passed by 41 votes to 10.
Argentina had confirmed they would cast their three votes against the plan arguing that the plan would be the “death of rugby” because it was a structure which rewarded the “old boys’ club” rather than prioritising global growth. The Six Nations and SANZAAR appear to have no interest in funnelling their own revenue into the developing nations. The funding for the second division will all come from World Rugby.
The plan is for a 50% increase in the number of Tier One v Tier Two fixtures, rising from 18 to 27 over a four-year period. World Rugby will allocate those games and also hope to persuade nations such as England and New Zealand to play Tests in the Pacific islands. However sides such the up-and-coming Portugal will have only a sporadic chance of facing one of the home unions, for example, in games played in a British & Irish Lions tour year or if they are drawn in the same World Cup pool.
The Pacific Nations Cup will be expanded to include Canada, Japan and the USA. This will guarantee an additional three matches for the teams each year.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, on the all-weather at Southwell and over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle United v Arsenal.
- -NFL, Week Nine
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Moselle and Sofia Opens
- Golf the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Exeter Chiefs v Bristol Bears Sunday 3pm
The sides in second (Exeter) and third (Bristol) in the fledgling Gallagher Premiership table meet this weekend.
Exeter have begun the season with two completely eye-opening results. In week one they beat Saracens 65-10 at home and in Week three they scored six tries in beating Sale 43-0. In between they lost 22-14 at Harlequins. Exeter have certainly had an early season advantage, in missing comparatively few players at the World Cup but nevertheless it’s a terrific start to the season.
Exeter reached six consecutive Gallagher Premiership Rugby finals from 2016-21 but only finished 7th in each of the last two seasons as the squad was being rebuilt. That reached its conclusion this summer with Sam and Joe Simmonds moving on and the retirement of Stuart Hogg.
The veteran Director of Rugby Rob Baxter and coach Ali Hepher have been building a younger squad. Their performance in the Premiership Rugby Cup before the Premiership started with four wins from four, is a testament to their potential.
In their years at the top of the table Exeter had a notable style, built off immense strength at close-quarters and there are early signs that this “new team” has more expansive elements added on to the forward strength. They’ve certainly had an early season advantage with Centre Henry Slade, one of the best playmakers in the league, not selected for the World Cup.
Bristol began the season beating Leicester 25-14 before travelling to Northampton and winning 33-27. Their first setback was last weekend, losing 21-23 at home to Harlequins.
Bristol have been disappointing the last couple of seasons, finishing 10th and 9th. They are a flair team, often spectacular but not that reliable a proposition in bad weather or up front.
This season they have lost two stars in the departing Semi Radradra and Charles Piatau but have replaced them impressively with France’s Virimi Vakatawa and England winger Max Malins, who I assume would be back this weekend. Whether England props Ellis Genge and Kyle Sinckler who had more game time in the World Cup than Malins will be available I am not sure.
Outright odds for the game are Exeter 4/9, Bristol 2//1 and Exeter 6-point handicap favourites. The bad weather seen this week is forecast to clear by the weekend (unlike last weekend at Bath!)
I favour Exeter to cover in their current form.
11 points Exeter to beat Bristol -6 points at 10/11 widely available
The Inquest begins
With England’s defence of their 2019 ODI World Cup win being so spectacularly unsuccessful so far the inquests have started to try to pinpoint the reasons for such a poor performance in India this time round. As ever there are a variety of reasons, the first of which is that the structure of the English game has meant that ODI cricket has been strictly the third priority behind the Test team (Bazball and particularly in an Ashes year) and T20 cricket (concurrent with the proliferation of franchise cricket worldwide).
There is an amazing statistic that since the 2019 win the eleven cricketers who have played the most games for England in this tournament have played a total of 10 domestic List A games, 8 of them by Dawid Malan. In the run up to the 2019 World Cup the winning XI collectively played 122 List A games in the four years before the tournament. The reasons for this are obvious. Many England players are missing playing franchise competitions worldwide or the new Hundred, where the domestic 50 over competition runs alongside every August and has as a consequence been relegated to an after-thought, played by the remnants of county staffs not involved in the Hundred.
There is also a weakness in schedule planning. A month before this World Cup England played four T20s against New Zealand (why?) and then in the three match ODI series none of the World Cup squad, very short of 50 over cricket, played.
Contrast this experience with India, who played a full 50 over Asia Cup in August and then a full warm up series against Australia in September. Looking at the newer players in the India ODI as an example. Suryajumar Yadav has played 102 non-international List A games, Shubman Gill has played 55 and Mohammed Siraj has played 45. They're coming into ODI cricket with a solid foundation of domestic List A cricket first, whereas England players who are new to ODI cricket are having to learn on the job. There are transferable skills from T20 cricket but List A cricket has a different rhythm. The balance between run scoring and wicket preservation is different.
As well as England being under-practiced in the format and ongoing complaints about the structure of English cricket plus England rarely selecting their best team in ODIs over the last few years there are other issues, some of which only emerged as issues during the competition.
One of these is a collective loss of form. These players, while ageing (another factor), are much better than this but as well as a lack of runs form the top 6 the seam bowling form has been woeful and the team selection has varied from all-rounders to specialists and back to all-rounders in five games. Fitness has also been an issue. Jonny Bairstow for example struggled in the Ashes from behind the stumps recovering from his major leg injury and is now expected to be a boundary out-rider in India? He isn’t up to it at this stage and then there is the issue of Ben Stokes.
Stokes retired from the format then unretired from it a month before the tournament, to no one’s surprise. He can’t bowl yet, so plays as a specialist batsman, but wasn’t fit until England’s fourth game of the tournament, it was impossible beforehand to say whether he could make a meaningful contribution at all let alone stay fit over a very long tournament in tough conditions.
Many of England’s problems this tournament, partially with hindsight, are self-inflicted. The team is short of practice, getting old, has fitness and form problems and team selection is inconsistent.
Many of these things can be fixed with a team rebuild and possibly new coaching. The solution to the problems caused by the structure of the domestic game and the ongoing pull of global franchise cricket is much more problematic, not helped by suggestions that the ICC is going to review the future of the 50 over tournament after this World Cup, the suggestion being they aren’t committed to its continuation culminating as a World Cup competition.
For the domestic game, how do you solve the fundamental issue that there is one too many competitions for the available time in the summer? Play first-class cricket during the Hundred? Scrap or reduce the T20 Blast? Scrap the Hundred? Combine the Blast and Hundred? All have issues attached to them. For many domestic cricket fans, the suggestion from Joe Root in his interview last week that the Blast should be scrapped rankled enormously. Doing so would immediately make 10-12 of the 18 counties financially unviable and it is those counties producing the talent for England in all formats.
For England to want 18 counties and 150,000 spectators and 350 pros to abandon the T20 Blast for 50-over cricket to make up for the fact England players don't play any 50 over cricket because they want to play The Hundred is classic double think.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster and Newbury, on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup Final.
- NFL, Week Eight
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP China Open followed by the Shanghai Rolex Masters.
- Golf on Worldwide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Bath v Leicester 3.05pm Saturday
Bath finished last season with four consecutive wins and an eventual 8th placed finish, up from 13th the season before. With wealthy benefactors, the club is well funded and able to spend up to the salary cap, a competitive advantage in an era where the league is down to 10 clubs and few clubs are self-sustaining financially. This off-season Bath have added Finn Russell from the French Top 14 and South Africa prop Thomas Du Toit into a squad that had already begun to turn round a few seasons of disappointing results.
It's early days but after two rounds of games this season Bath are top of the league with back to back bonus point wins, firstly they beat Newcastle 34-26 with a hat-trick of Ben Spencer tries and then, in a statement victory, went to champions Saracens and won 25-16.
There is continuity, with the same coaching team as last year and the side is comparatively unaffected by absences in the late stage of the World Cup with Stuart, Underhill and Lawrence due to return from the England squad after the weekend.
Compared to Bath, Leicester have had a tricky start under a new coaching team led by Australian Dan McKellar. On the opening weekend they lost 25-14 at Bristol having been 25-0 down in a terrible start and last weekend lost 24-17 to title contenders Sale.
Leicester are still missing 8 players at the World Cup (Pollard, Montoya, Cole, Martin, Chessum, Wiese, Youngs and Steward) and it’s the very early stages of establishing what the coaching team requires. During the Premiership Rugby Cup games that took place during the World Cup Leicester were playing an exciting brand of 15-man rugby, often against inferior opponents. In the first two league games they’ve reverted to a forward led game with kicking and relying on strong defense, a typical Leicester style under previous coaches Borthwick and Wigglesworth.
The problem so far has been that the defence has allowed 49 points in two games and the whole team looks like a work in progress. The contrast between a Bath side which at Saracens had Russell in control with great off-loads firing an attacking game was marked.
Outright odds see Bath 2/5 and Leicester 12/5 with Leicester +7 on the handicap. I expect Bath to win and overcome the conditions which nevertheless look a little better for the weekend and cover.
11 points Bath -7 points at 10/11 generally
Growing the game
The plan for the expanded 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia is to divide the 24 teams into six groups of four. The top two in each group, plus the four best third-placed sides, would progress to a new knockout round of 16. In that scenario the eight nations who do not qualify from the pool stage would play one match fewer than at this World Cup.
This is at odds with the imperative to grow the game outside the Tier One countries. So, it might be argued is the World Nations Championship due to start in 2026. The biennial two-tiered competition, with a 12-team top division to include Japan and Fiji, is not slated to feature promotion and relegation until 2030 at the earliest.
Portugal, Georgia, Fiji, Uruguay and Chile all impressed to varying degrees in the 2023 World Cup. Just taking one example, although Portugal’s performances against Wales and Australia were enjoyable they are not certain to play another Six Nations or Rugby Championship team outside of a World Cup for at least seven years.
To help, creating a plate competition at the 2027 World Cup would ensure that developing nations get at least the same number of matches as at a 20-team tournament but also get to enjoy more exposure and more games on the biggest stage. Theoretically the top two in each pool and the four best third-placed teams would progress, with the draw based on the same model used for the past two European Championships in football. Those who then lose in the round of 16 would drop into the plate competition and join the eight who did not qualify from the pool stage. The plate fixtures would be played in midweek. Some jeopardy could be added by awarding the winners automatic qualification to the next World Cup.
The two-tiered event would not be any longer than this year’s tournament and would retain World Rugby’s commitment to five-day rest periods. The sides who drop down to the plate from the round of 16 would play eight matches if they reach the final, but that is preferable to some teams being eliminated after only three group games.
As well as potential ideas such as this, the promising Tier 2 teams need much more regular and meaningful competitive games in between World Cups in the huge four year gaps, but there is little sign of this happening. Why not, for example, improve the Six Nations by expanding it to Eight Nations (including Georgia and Portugal), calling it the European Rugby Championship, with a relegation promotion dynamic? Or a return to the Five Nations with automatic promotion and relegation to a Five Nations B. One of the bigger teams would be compelled to tour a second tier country in non-World Cup years and those second tier sides would get a visit to one of the big sides every Autumn.
Whilst the need to earn revenue from big tours to the big sides and Autumn Internationals against the big boys that will sell out venues of course exists, currently there is nothing compelling the Tier One sides to assist in growing the game.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Market Rasen, Newton Abbot and Stratford
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Everton and Chelsea v Arsenal
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup Semi-Finals.
- NFL, Week Seven
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the USA Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Ernst Bank Open and the Swiss Open Indoor Championship.
- Golf the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
The US Grand Prix, Austin, Sunday at 6.30pm
Five Grand Prix left this season, four of which are in the Americas incouding the return of a Grand Prix in Las Vegas for the penultimate race of the season, guaranteed to be a thrilling spectacle running down the strip.
In the Qatar Grand Prix a fortnight ago we were slightly unfortunate not to get a top two finish from Lando Norris in the Sunday race over a weekend which confirmed Max Verstappen’s third World Championship.
Lando Norris qualified second but started the race only 10th after his fastest qualifying time was deleted when he fell foul of the very tough track limit regulations imposed by the Stewards. He finished the race third, only a second behind his team-mate. He finished a second behind his team-mate in third place.
Afterwards Norris bemoaned his mistakes over the weekend, as in addition a mistake at the last corner on his final lap in Saturday’s second qualifying session opened the door for Piastri to take pole position and win the sprint race.
Afterwards he said:
“If I want to be honest with myself, I should have fought for two pole positions this weekend and potentially two victories”
The McLaren had the pace on the fast corners that enabled him to overtake Ferraris and Aston Martins during the race and he felt he would have been competitive with Mercedes too.
Austin this weekend is another track that should suit the upgraded McLaren with two fast DRS zones and long sweeping corners.
Each-way terms are 1/3 the odds two places and we get virtually the same price on Norris that we did last weekend. Apart from the obvious favourite Verstappen and the other McLaren of Piastri, it’s 20/1 bar the front three.
10 points each way Lando Norris to win the US Grand Prix at 12/1 (1/3 two places) with Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet
Back to Basics
Coinciding with the Rugby World Cup reaching the knockout stages the Gallagher Premiership returned last weekend.
This season the Premiership is for the first time in 18 years a ten-team league but not by choice. The demise of London Irish, Worcester Warriors and Wasps last season means that every team now plays one another home and away in the regular season. At the end of the regular season the top four will face off in two one-legged semi-finals, and then a final at Twickenham.
All teams except the bottom two will qualify for the European Champions Cup, while the ninth-placed team qualifies into the Challenge Cup. The bottom side faces a two-legged promotion/relegation play-off against the Championship winners, who are unlikely to have met the RFU’s ground criteria for Premiership eligibility but nevertheless its an improvement on the closed shop of recent seasons.
The marketing teams have been hard at work to generate interest in the league in a competitive sporting landscape, and this season sees five “themed weekends” including “Derby Weekend” “Showdown weekend” and a “Big Summer Kick Off”.
The domestic game in England remains under financial pressure with an uneasy relationship with the RFU and the national side, a salary cap operating at a lower level than notably the French Top 14 and so with continued competition for playing talent from other leagues.
At least this season there is a partial reversal of the talent drain seen in recent years, headed by Finn Russell’s signing by Bath. Also back in the Premiership are Zach Mercer at Gloucester (via Montpellier); Joe Launchbury at Harlequins (from Japan) and Tom Willis at Saracens (from Bordeaux).
Champions Saracens are the favourites again (6/4) and can offset likely England losses with four signings from London Irish (Tom Parton, Ollie Hoskins, Lucio Cinti and Juan Martín González) alongside Willis.
After Saracens in the market come Sale (7/2), Leicester (5/1) and Harlequins (8/1), 14/1 bar including Northampton and Bath where a resurgence is expected under their big spending owner. Both Saracens and Leicester suffered losses over the first weekend, a potential sign of a competitive season ahead.
First things first though for all teams in the league, let’s hope for financial stability across the board to ensure the league does not contract further.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
