Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon, over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, Premier League Fixtures include Aston Villa v Manchester United
- NFL, Week Five of the new season including New York Jets against Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Stadium.
- Cricket, England’s Test Series begins in Pakistan on Monday in Multan.
- Golf, The Black Derset Championship on the USPGA Tour and The French Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters continues
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby Bath v Bristol Saturday 3.05pm
The third weekend of the new domestic rugby season brings one of the fiercest local Derbies in the league as second (Bath) host third (Bristol) on Saturday afternoon.
Bath have won their first two games of the season, at home to Northampton (last season’s winners) and away at Leicester. An encouraging start for a team which has recovered from the doldrums of the last decade with new owners investing into the playing squad and following the appointment of South African coach Johann Can Graan two years ago. Van Graan turned Bath around in his first season. The team's improvement in form over the course of the campaign culminated with a 61–29 win over Saracens on the final day, which saw them edge Bristol for eighth in the table and a place in the 2023–24 Champions Cup.
Then last off-season came the marquee recruitment of Scottish fly-half Finn Russell, recruited out of the French Top 14 and he, assisted by the squad depth accumulated the season before, led Bath to a second placed league finish, their highest placing since 2015, only to lose the play-off final narrowly, 25-21 to Northampton.
With Russell pulling the strings Bath are an exciting side, a challenge for all defenses with Ben Spencer at scrum-half, England’s Ollie Lawrence outside Russell and Muir and Cokanisaga talented wingers. In the forwards flanker Guy Pepper is a “coming name” in great form.
Pat Lam has coached Bristol since 2017, and recovered from several fallow years to a 5th placed finish last season just outside the play offs scoring 80 tries (9 more than Bath in second place) and following 10th and 9th place finishes the two seasons before after big squad turnover.
Bath sticking 38 points on Northampton week 1 was notable, and they narrowly missed putting a hatful on Leicester in Week 2, only tremendous defence kept them out.
Bristol meanwhile had a comfortable start, winning at probably the league’s weakest team Newcastle 24-3 before losing a thriller 41-44 at home to rejuvenated Gloucester last weekend, recovering from 41-23 down
If conditions permit this should be another high scoring game where the overall advantage should go to Bath because of superior defence, as both teams will be out to score plenty of tries
11 points Bath -9 points at 10/11 generally
New Formats
The Rugby Championship is set to take place only in alternate years and will not be held in 2026 due to the extended tour of New Zealand to South Africa under plans for ‘Greatest Rugby Rivalry’ tours where the groundwork is well underway for eight-week tours between South Africa and New Zealand every four years rotating through the two nations from 2026.
The impact on The Rugby Championship will be significant. The SANZAAR countries had previously agreed deal extending the Championship until 2030 and the news comes as Australian and New Zealand Rugby work towards their next broadcast deals with the current deal expiring in 2025.
The Rugby Championship would likely proceed in 2027 and 2029 but not 2026, 2028 or 2030 as it stands with every second year devoted to The Rugby Championship and the alternate years set aside for a “tour-like concept”. It is South Africa’s preference that the ChampionshipC go back to one off Tests rather than two per season but it was suggested in the media that New Zealand wanted to sideline the Championship altogether in those seasons.
The All Blacks tour of South Africa in 2026 will consist of three Tests, four matches against United Rugby Championship teams and a clash against South Africa A. They will also face the Springboks a fourth time at a neutral venue with Twickenham or the United States are listed as options.
International rugby programs are undergoing seismic change, as noted by Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt last week. He said.
“It’s a real mix, world rugby at the moment with the different competitions and agreements that exist. Six Nations is such a solidified competition that the Northern Hemisphere have a very exclusive club there and I know talking to the Georgian coaches they’d love to have a crack at getting into that competition.At the same time, [the new series] is not going to replace the Rugby Championship. The Rugby Championship, as far as I know, is going to continue but it will be truncated in that year.”
There’s alsoplanning and preparation around a Nations Cup that may be biannual and it may be that the teams from the Southern Hemisphere accumulate points versus the Northern Hemisphere.
However the significant revamp of international rugby in the southern hemisphere is leaving one stakeholder feeling left out all over again. While Australia’s leadership are putting a brave face on the new series, Argentinian rugby followers are concerned about what it means for that country. They’ve already lived through being cast aside from Super Rugby and there’s no doubt The Rugby Championship has helped build the big game quality of the World Cup semi-finalists.
Then there are concerns about the stated World Rugby intention to promote Fiji and Japan as part of the proposed Nations Champ concept.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon, over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, Premier League Fixtures include Newcastle v Manchester City and Manchester United v Tottenham.
- NFL, Week Four of the new season.
- Rugby Union, the Final round of Rugby Championship matches
- Golf, The Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA Tour and The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at Carnoustie on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters
Free Tip
Fourth ODI Cricket England v Australia Lords Friday 12.30pm Start
This is the fourth ODI in this late season five match series. (The ECB now has an agreement with India and Australia that one of the two conducts a tour in at least one format every year).
In the period between the former England white ball coach Matthew Mott and now coach across all formats Brendon McCullum England are rebuilding using younger players so we can't expect the white ball team to gel straight away. England are moving on from the Moeen, Jordan, Buttler, Rashid generation and this ODI series has seen Brook, Bethell, Jacks, Jamie Smith, Carse and Potts selected.
This series saw Australia reach 14 ODI wins in a row after wins in the first two games of the series. Only their team of 2003 had more consecutive ODI victories. England meanwhile have now lost 10 of their last 15 in the 50 over format after their win in the rain affected game at Durham on Tuesday.
There are understandable reasons why we are struggling in the ODI sphere. Good players are retiring or in the case of Root and Stokes picking and choosing their ODI appearances for major tournaments only. Secondly because of The 100, we've turned our only domestic 50 over competition into a reserve competition, as the two are concurrent. The England players in this squad haven’t played ODIs for nearly a year. Thirdly England have only selected a first choice 11 once in 3 years, prioritising other formats.
The result is that this series has seen a side with eight members of the XI that won last year’s World Cup final in Australia versus a side with Adil Rashid as their leading run-scorer in the format. It’s not hugely surprising that we’ve had comfortable Australia wins!
The differences in squad composition can really be seen in the batting where Australia’s contains five of the current test top-six including Head, Steve Smith and Labuschagne. Although minus the big three quicks Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood the line-up includes top spinner Zampa and a number of experienced franchise players. They look ready for major tournaments now, whereas England are at the start of another rebuild.
In this Australian team Travis Head is the best all-format batter in world cricket, and possibly the next Test opener too this winter with Warner’s retirement.
In ODIs since 2022 he has 1,278 runs at an average of 64 and a strike rate of 121. Only Omarzai and Kohli exceed that ODI average in World Cricket over that time span.
In this series he has scores of 154*, 29 and was then rested. He looks a threat to go big in any innings.
In the Australian top batsman market Head can be backed at 3/1
10 points Travis Head Top Australian batsman at 3/1 widely available
Appealing
Leicester City have won their appeal against a decision that could have seen them punished with a points deduction for an alleged breach of PSR rules.
The Premier League initially referred Leicester to an independent commission in March 2024 for an alleged breach of PSR rules for the three-year reporting period ending in 2022-23, which saw the club relegated to the Championship after a nine-year stay in the top flight. Leicester subsequently questioned the commission’s jurisdiction to hear the case.
Leicester successfully argued that the point of the breach was the end of their accountancy year in 2023, which was on June 30 two weeks after they handed over their membership in the Premier League to Luton Town.
Leicester’s argument was they could not be held for a breach of Premier League rules when they were not a Premier League club at the point of the breach. The decision to move their accountancy year, which they were entitled to do, saved them and ironically relegation helped then helped their situation now too.
The commission had dismissed Leicester’s challenge to its authority, but an independent appeal board has now overturned that decision, ruling in favour of Leicester, who no longer face the threat of a points deduction.
Everton and Nottingham Forest were given points deductions last season for PSR breaches relating to the same accounting period.
By finding these loopholes, it now emerges that the PSR rules are insufficient and potentially unworkable and may have to be re-drawn.
Leicester’s PSR charge was calculated based on the 2022-23 season, where they lost £89.7million the 2021-22 season, and an average of the 2019-20 and 2020-21 campaigns, which were merged due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. After the usual adjustments, the Premier League’s PSR calculation for Leicester was £129.4m, which was £24.4m over the threshold. For context, Everton were only £19.5m over the threshold when they lost 10 points for their first breach, although that was reduced to six on appeal. Therefore, Leicester were looking at a deduction of at least six points before any aggravating factors, such as failing to provide accounts on time and taking legal action against the league, were considered.
The club recorded record losses of £92.5m for the financial year ending May 31, 2022. This came following a £31.2m loss for the previous year. Leicester posted a pre-tax loss of almost £100m for the two Covid seasons.
Leicester did not secure any income from European football in 2022-23 and dropped from eighth in the Premier League table in 2022 to 18th in 2023, which equates to a loss in merit payments of about £30m.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Chester, Newbury and Newmarket and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League Fixtures include Manchester City v Arsenal.
- NFL, Week Three of the new season.
- Cricket, The second ODI between England and Australia at Headingley on Saturday.
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship Australia v New Zealand and Argentina v South Africa
- Golf, The President’s Cup in Montreal on the USPGA Tour and the Spanish Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP China and Japan Opens
Free Tip
Rugby Championship Australia v New Zealand, Sydney 6.55am Saturday
Both teams with new coaches Scott Robertson and Joe Schmidt have had difficult first campaigns in this tournament.
Both have won 1 and lost 3 matches, each with a win and a loss against Argentina and losing both matches to South Africa.
For New Zealand, shorn of squad depth with post Rugby World Cup retirements and departures to France and Japan gone are the days teams running the All Blacks close before being well beaten in the final quarter of a match.
In four Rugby Championship matches this year, the All Blacks have not scored a single point in the final 20 minutes of a Test match. In their last match the Springboks shut them out denying New Zealand a try for the first time in a Test match since Ireland did the same in 2018.
New head coach Robertson has yet to properly stamp his mark on the team seven games into his tenure. The three defeats aside, it still feels very much like the previous regime of All Blacks taking the field, but without the strength in depth required for Tet match rugby in the modern era.
This year, Robertson has only issued seven Test debuts in 2024, a far cry from the 17 that Schmidt has. Only one of those seven has become a regular member of the matchday 23 scrum-half Cortez Ratima who earned just his second Test start in the Cape Town Test match against the Springboks which was his sixth international appearance.
In Argentina Australia had a terrible result in the second test losing 67-27 from 20-3 up in the first half. Joe Schmidt has a major task on his hands cleaning up Eddie Jones’ mess.
While there is a lengthy injury list to contend with, there are still major holes in the Wallabies game. When Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou are propping the scrum is atrocious. Conceding four tries in ten minutes in that defeat is rare for a major nation and could be one or both of a lack of fitness or just players giving up
Strengths one week, have unravelled the next and those inconsistencies can be put down to inexperience but that excuse can only last so long particularly when Schmidt is reluctant to select overseas-based players. For Australia players playing overseas are only eligible for selection if they have played a minimum of 30 Test caps or have completed a minimum of five years’ service to Australian Rugby.
A win over the All Blacks in the next fortnight will buy goodwill and time for the ongoing rebuild but it looks increasingly unlikely. Such is the discrepancy in talent that New Zealand’s current weakness of lack of bench depth might not be an issue, they should be well ahead after an hour in Sydney.
10 points New Zealand -14 at 10/11 generally
A Private Practice.
At the end of August NFL owners voted to approve a proposal that will allow private equity firms to buy a limited amount of stakes in teams.
Until now, NFL ownership rules only allowed for a limited number of approved partners, but not investment firms. The measure stipulates teams are allowed to sell off up to 10% of the franchises to investment firms. Those investment groups must be previously approved by the NFL.
The move means little in terms of outward impact as far as fans are concerned but the additional cash-flow could provide NFL owners with funds to finance stadium upgrades and other facility projects etc
The private equity stakeholders wouldn’t have any voting power, but buying into an NFL team can translate into lucrative earning opportunities. The Washington Commanders sold in 2023 for just more than $6bn. The previous year, the Denver Broncos sold for $4.65bn, and neither the Broncos nor Commanders have ranked among the most competitive teams in the league in recent years The most valuable franchise, according to Forbes earlier this year, is said to be the Dallas Cowboys at over $10bn.
Since the sale of the Commanders to Josh Harris NFL owners began exploring the possibility of allowing for private equity investors because both Denver’s and Washington’s new ownership groups featured a higher number of limited partners than historical ownership structures, which often are owned by one individual or family supported by a limited number of partners.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bAnk betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh
- Football, Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal.
- NFL, Week Two of the new season.
- Cricket, T20 finals Day at Edgbaston sandwiched between T20Is between England and Australia on Friday and Sunday.
- Formula One, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.
- Golf, The BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Zhuhai and Chengdu Opens
Free Tip
T20 finals day, Saturday Edgbaston
After the unsatisfactory six-week gap between the T20 Blast Group stages and Quarter-Finals the season scheduling has dealt another blow to the competition, specifically one of the prestige days of the domestic county season, by being sandwiched this Saturday between England/Australia T20Is on Friday and Sunday.
This of course removes a number of players from finals day, and one team in particular is affected. Whilst Somerset and Gloucestershire have no England players, Sussex must do without Jofra Archer and Surrey are minus Sam Curran, Reece Topley, Will Jacks and Jamie Overton all of whom played in the Quarter-Final win over Durham.
Surrey might get Pope and Jamie Smith back from the end of the Sri Lanka test series, in which Atkinson ended with an injury but the four absentees are a big loss of specialist white ball players, and rather undesirable for this tournament as a whole.
This year will see the third all-south group finals day in four years and prices going into finals day are as follows:
Somerset 9/4
Surrey 9/4
Sussex 9/4
Gloucestershire 9/2
The draw for the semi-finals was made before the Quarters as follows
Game 1 Surrey v Somerset
Game 2 Sussex v Gloucs
With the first game starting at 11am in Mid-September, and the new white balls this summer producing pronounced swing and seam Game 1 could very well be a toss game, as it was when Surrey reduced Durham to 69-6 in their Quarter. Everyone thinks the winner will come from these two sides, the one Test match ground and wealthiest county and Somerset the defending Champions but in the likely conditions 9/4 about either seems skinny. The probable loss of the talented opener Tom Banton with an injury this week is also unhelpful.
Sussex are a solid outfit even without Archer, with a bowling attack led by Ollie Robinson but it is Gloucestershire that really appeals to me at 9/2 on value grounds.
A resolutely unfashionable smaller county with off-the-field financial problems this is just their fourth time in the semi-finals, and just a second trip since 2007.
Their route to finals days has been fraught with chaos. In the group stages they were involved in a tie with Surrey, a last-ball defeat at Sussex, a last-ball defeat at Hampshire, an unfortunate loss to Kent when rain hit after five overs of a seemingly comfortable run-chase, a last-ball victory at Glamorgan and a double over Somerset chasing 189 and 195 to win both games
A year ago, they finished seventh in last season's South Group and the side only has 23 international caps between them, with only a single overseas player, Cameron Bancroft. Just one Gloucestershire player played a game in this year's Hundred.
Key bowlers David Payne and Matt Taylor in this year's Blast (in the powerplay and at the death) have taken 52 wickets @ 14.5 at under 7 runs an over and bowled brilliantly in the Quarter at this ground to defend 138 and beat Birmingham/Warwickshire. Both are vastly under-rated and on their own make 9/2 look a very sporting price for finals day.
10 points Gloucestershire to win the T20 Blast at 9/2 with Bet365
Wrecks ‘Em.
A few weeks into the League One season and Wrexham are already in the top two and set to make further progress after their Hollywood story dominated League Two and the National League.
Much has been said about the positive “Wrexham effect”, but it’s not all pre-season friendlies against Chelsea in California and sponsorship from global brands for lower division teams. Many may yet find that Ryan Reynolds’ and Rob McElhenney’s venture indirectly hurt them.
Consultancy LCP has just published its second annual study of English football club finances. Its analysts have crunched the 2022-23 accounts of the 92 clubs in the top four divisions and, as last year, paint a picture of a fragile system with clubs heavily indebted to their owners and each other. Some 86% of teams were loss-making. Net debt across the system increased by 27% to £7.1bn.
Most striking in this year’s LCP report is the deterioration in the financial health of clubs in League One and Two. Within two years, aggregate annual losses in League One almost trebled from £44m to £121m, and in League Two jumped from just £2m to £35m. The authors attribute this in part to a Wrexham effect, with club owners striving to match the ambition of the Welsh team’s celebrity backers.
“The gambling for promotion culture previously seen primarily in the Championship now seems to be spreading to Leagues One and Two, where losses and debt levels are spiralling.”
Take a look at the list of Wrexham’s sponsors. They include United Airlines as shirt sponsor and HP as “global technology partner”. Average attendance across all matches in Leagues One and Two last year was around 9,000. No wonder you don’t find global tech giants clamouring to back the other 47 teams in these divisions.
The Wrexham phenomenon is not all bad given the boost in interest it has generated for the lower divisions but there are concerns for the sustainability of clubs given the recent surge in their losses and debt levels. These trends also strengthen the Premier League’s hand in resisting pressure to funnel an increased share of its TV revenue down into the lower leagues.
The leading clubs have already been arguing that any extra money may simply be squandered on players. LCP’s data can only reinforce that line of resistance, highlighting as it does the propensity of owners to chase short-term sporting success at the expense of their clubs’ long-term health.
It seems certain now that an independent football regulator will be established over the coming months. Although it might seem perverse for an industry revolving around the pursuit of victory, the new regulator’s core task will be to protect supporters from over-ambitious owners with shallow pockets. There is clearly a growing list of lower league clubs in urgent need of such protection.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton and Thirsk on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield and over the jumps at Stratford
- Football, UEFA Nations League matches include the Republic of Ireland v England.
- NFL, the start of the new season.
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship Matches include South Africa v New Zealand
- Golf, the Napa Valley Golf Championship on the USPGA and the Irish Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the Davis Cup continues
NFL 2024
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Free Tip
Rugby Championship South Africa v New Zealand 4pm Saturday Cape Town
South Africa remain unbeaten after their first three games of the 2024 Rugby Championship after winning first game of their All Black double header in Johannesburg last weekend 31-27 from 27-17 down with 15 minutes to go.
After that result New Zealand have 1 win from 3 games with this match in Cape Town and two Australia matches to come in Sydney and Wellington, both of which they would be expected to win.
New Zealand controlled most of last weekend’s match but were undone by a lack of impact from their inexperienced bench especially from the forwards, in sharp contrast to the contribution made by the South Africa’s “Bomb Squad” who led the way as they came back to win.
The All Blacks were in the lead for 81% of the game and outscored the hosts 4 tries to 3 but for the second time in three games, the bench lost the game for the All Blacks. They failed to match the intensity and pace of Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams and Eben Etzebeth, and they allowed the Springboks to overturn a 10-point lead in the final quarter. New Zealand scored their last points in the 58th minute.
As stated in recent columns New Zealand rugby has been hollowed out having lost playing resources in the first year of a new World Cup cycle by retirements and defections by the financial rewards on offer to play in Japan and France. They are also building a new style under a new Head Coach Scott Robertson. The result is they have a competitive first fifteen but less so for the whole 23 in a match-day squad.
For this weekend the troubling thing for the All Blacks is the Springboks are unlikely to play any worse than they did last weekend in an error-strewn performance and a chaotic game.
South Africa went off last weekend 7 point favourites and won by 4. This weekend they start five point favourites and I expect them to cover.
11 points South Africa -5 points at 10/11 generally.
Capitals
The owners of the Delhi Capitals have agreed a £120m deal to buy Hampshire in a historic move in which they will become the first county to be owned by an overseas franchise. The deal includes a 51% stake in the Southern Brave, with the option to complete a 100% takeover of the Hundred franchise.
The Delhi owners GMR Group are understood to have beaten a second bid from rival Indian Premier League franchise Lucknow Super Giants
Hampshire’s value appears to have risen during the negotiating process from a starting point of around £100mn, an increase which reflects the ECB’s decision to gift them a 51% stake in Southern Brave. The high valuation is also down to an impressive upcoming international fixture list including an Ashes Test match for Hampshire in 2027, while the Utilita Bowl will also host an India Test in 2029, another Test the following year and eight England white-ball matches between 2025 and 2031. In addition to buying the club, GMR will also take control of the Utilita Bowl, a Hilton hotel and a golf course all on the same site near Southampton.
The takeover by GMR, which also owns 50% of the Dubai Capitals in the United Arab Emirates’ ILT20 and Seattle Orcas in America’s Major League Cricket, is hugely significant for English cricket as it puts the Indian franchise in a strong position to become the first outright owners of a Hundred team.
In addition to significant investment the impending takeover opens up the possibility of Hampshire gaining access to some of Delhi Capitals’ players, particularly their youngsters. Whilst the Board of Control for Cricket in India [BCCI] does not currently permit Indians to play in the Hundred, that is likely to change if Delhi buy into the competition.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
