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League Two Transfer Window Winners and Losers

Posted on 1 Feb 2024 23:27 in Free Content From Stattobets

League Two

 

Accrington

 

Radek Vitek joining in goal might solve what has been a problem position for them through the season and should be an upgrade on the recalled Joe Walsh. Nothing else of note except Josh Andrews being recalled by Birmingham which is a bit of a blow.

6/10 An upgrade in net

 

AFC Wimbledon

 

It’s all about Ali Al-Hamadi joining Ipswich I’m afraid. Top scorer with 17 goals in all competitions this season he’s going to leave a huge hole. He scored 27 goals in 40 starts for the club and the 21 year old has left for a reported £1.1m fee - It looks a fair deal all round but won’t help Dons chances this season given the form he was in. Joe Lewis has signed permanently after spending the first half of the season on loan, but Connor Lemonheigh-Evans has rejoined Stockport at the end of his loan.  Inbound is John-Kymani Gordon from Palace, but the jury is out given he made minimal impact at Cambridge. 

 

Up front Josh Kelly was added today - he’s highly rated having scored a bunch of goals in the National League and he’s well known to the AFC Wimbledon recruitment team who brought him to Solihull in the past. He could be an exciting signing in a window that has been a success financially, if not immediately on the pitch.

 

4/10 Losing on of the best attacking players at this level has defined their window.

 

Barrow

 

Cole Stockton is the main news - loaned in from Burton where he’s failed to deliver on his previous pedigree at Morecambe. He’s still just 29 and a new club could see him get going again. Gerard Garner was recalled by Morecambe. 7/10 very settled, but Stockton is a good addition.

 

Bradford

 

Movement in goal, replacing Carlisle bound Harry Lewis with Sam Walker from Charlton. It looks like a downgrade. The other departures of Emmanuel Osadebe, Ryan East and Vadine Oliver just trim the squad with little impact, while Tyreik Wright joins the club for a second loan spell. Calum Kavanagh has come in up-front and of course they have Jake Young back in the squd now following his trail blazing at Swindon. 

 

6/10 Looking up, but it needed to.

 

Colchester

 

The Cowley’s have kept the squad in tact so far in terms of things in their control. Losing Joe Taylor was a big blow though as he returned to Luton at the start of the month after scoring 12 in 27. Conor Wilkinson has scored goals at this level before by won’t be as prolific as Taylor.. They’ve also loaned in a few - Jayden Richardson looks a promising acquisition at right-back while Harry Anderson has played at a higher level so will hope to hit the ground running and has played under Cowley before. Alistair Smith and Riley Harbottle have also been loaned in. 6/10 Despite the loss of Taylor, one player rarely defines a season and the squad looks stronger now.

 

Crawley

 

Kamarai Swyer, Luca Ashby-Hammond and Aaron Henry were all recalled after playing bit-part roles. Individually none should really affect too much, but collectively it has left the squad a bit thin. Fans have been vocal about their concerns here but you get the feeling the board feel they have enough of a cushion to relegation and have closed the cheque book. Could be a tough second half of the season and a 10:45pm move for Jeremy Kelly just looks bizarre from my quick research about him!

 

3/10 Owners appear happy to save money right now


 

Crewe

 

Connor O’Riordan joining Blackburn was devastating for Crewe fans - the centre-back will certainly be missed, but continues an inevitable climb up the league ladder. A fee of about £500k sounds fair enough and I’m sure they will have built in add-ons. I guess it’s infuriating for Crewe who are having a really good crack at promotion back to League One.Joe White has been recalled to Newcastle which will also be frustrating as he’d enjoyed a wondered first half to the season. Ed Turner is the arrival to plug the gap left by O’Riordan - the Brighton big man should enjoy game time. 

 

Josh Austerfield arrives on loan - a defensive midfielder who is great on the ball, while Lewis Leigh had a solid first half to the season at Bromley and has been rewarded with a progression into League Two. 4/10 Two major losses, but working hard to mitigate the impact

 

Doncaster

 

Fair to say Donny fans don’t love their owners after promises of summer investment failed to materialise. Money still hasn't been spent but they have been busy enough bringing in Jay McGrath from St Patricks, who has pleased fans initially. Hakeeb Adelakun has joined on loan from Lincoln and Billy Waters from Wrexham, which strengthens their options in attack. Conor Carty and Matthew Craig are further loans. It looks a little bit panicky to me. Three recalls - Mo Faal will be a significant loss after eight goals, while Tyler Robers and Louie Marsh have barely been involved. 4/10 A hard one to make out. Doesn’t feel like a big step forward to me.

 

Forest Green

 

Troy Deeney out, Steve Cotterill in at the top. Bottom of the league and nine points from safety means this is a pivotal window - especially given January has yielded just three points from a possible 15. It’s a while since James Belshaw left, but he will be very hard to replace. Both Callum Morton and Reece Welch were regulars before recalls, but it’s fair to say they were part of a losing side more often than not. Matty Taylor has also left but didn’t do a great deal. 

 

In-coming are Manchester United youngster Maxi Oyedele and goalkeeper Tommy Simkin from Stoke, but I’ve got more hopes for Dominic Thompson at left-back, who was a £1m signing by Brentford five years ago and has been playing in League One since then for Ipswich and Blackpool. Alex Gorrin and Emmanuel Osadebe also join. 

Christian Doidge has endured a reasonably bleak time up in Scotland in front fo goal and a return to Forest Green after five years away will be exciting for both him and the fans. 

6/10 Shuffled a bit and that can hardly be a bad thing right now. Surely not enough to get them out of trouble though. 

 

Gillingham

 

Spent money like it was going out of fashion last January, and started the season with high hopes but definitely no world beaters on the evidence. Lacked a goal-scorer really this season so they’ve shuffled things up a load. They’ve let Lewis Walker join Woking, Tom Nichols head to Mansfield and Macauley Bonne go to Cambridge on loan. They’ve replaced them with Josh Walker on loan from Burton (scored on his debut) and Josh Andrews on loan from Birmingham.


Remeao Hutton has joined from Swindon - a regular starter for the Robins and a creative threat down the right hand side on his day, but has regressed this season and the deal makes sense for both sides - especially if cash is an issue at Swindon. Jorge Hurtado has joined on loan from Watford. He’s one I know nothing about!

6/10 Wouldn’t be getting over excited but its probably a positive window for Stephen Clemence.

 

Grimsby

 

Defender Doug Tharme scored on his debut after swapping Blackpool reserves for Grimsby. Largely unproven but did become a regular at Accrington in League One during a loan spell there. Looks handy and also has a hell of a throw on him. He will team up again with his former Accrington colleague Harvey Rodgers and they should be decent at this level. Competition arrives in the right-back slot with Liam Smith coming down Cheltenham, while they’ve also signed Justin Obikwu (Coventry) and Harry Wood (Hull) on loan.

Tharme’s signing allows them to let Luke Waterfall join Hartlepool along with Otis Khan who hasn’t got a look in this campaign. A much bigger impact will come from selling Kamil Conteh - one of the better holding midfielders in the division and I think they will really miss him. 

A deadline day move for Curtis Thompson sees the midfield tasked with replacing Conteh. Thompson was dropping down the pecking order at Cheltenham so it makes sense for everyone. Another addition on the final day has been Denver Hume at left-back - I wouldn't be too excited about a player who spends a lot of time injured and he’s perhaps just adding depth to the squad. 

6/10 -  A decent shuffle of the defence after some seriously bad performances recently.

 

Harrogate

Not much activity at Harrogate. James Belshaw was made permanent after an emergency loan and it’s worked out well as he’s a significant improvement on what was available before. They’ve also got Joe Mattock back at the club - returning from a spell with Hartlepool, but he won’t improve the squad. Luke Armstrong has joined Carlisle for a fee thought to be around £300k. A failed move to Wrexham at the last window left him frozen out so he’s barely kicked a ball since then. 

Deadline day has seen the club busy - the sale of Kayne Ramsay to Charlton is significant - he was surely one of the best right-backs in the division and is one of the best players I’ve ever seen in a Town shirt. WIth contract up in the summer it looks a sensible deal for everyone involved, but it undoubtedly leaves Harrogate weakened. They’ve reacted by bringing in Derrick Abu from Southampton. He’s a former Chelsea graduate who has played at youth football for England, so Town fans will hope he’s in a similar mould to Ramsay. They’ve also brought in reinforcements up top which was needed, although Tom Bloxham is unproven so jury has to be out on him for the time being. 

5/10 - Fans will be happy enough come midnight, but might have liked something slightly more exciting inbound. 

 

Mansfield

 

The Stags are going wonderful well and have avoided any disruptions at all. 6/10 No changes, and I’m scoring that a positive based on their status this season. 

 

MK Dons

 

Right sided forward Jonathan Leko has joined Burton on loan in search of more regular pitch time, while Mo Eisa has gone to Exeter - again on loan. That’s pretty incredible given he was fifth favorite to finish top scorer in the division in August, but his impact has faded and with his contract running down, MK have taken the opportunity of a small loan fee - something fans seem content enough with. There has been a change between the sticks too, with Craig MagGillivray loaned out to Stevenage, ad Filip Marschall brought in from Villa. Also heading out on loan is Dawson Devoy - he’s only played a bit part this season but should be a good acquisition for Swindon. 

Coming in has been Dan Kemp who was on fire for Swindon before Christmas. His return is like a new signing and might have paved the way for Eisa to leave, while Stephen Wearne could prove a bargain for £60k after being snapped up from Gateshead.

6/10 Like the business, but some of it felt somewhat unnecessary

 

Morecambe

 

Adam Mayor was confirmed as leaving to join Millwall on Wednesday and that’s one of the stars of the division moving upwards. The deal could eventually reach £1m according to reports. It comes after the loss of James Connolly, Tom Bloxham, Eli King and 15-goal Michael Mellon to recalls. Between those five that’s 95 first team starts this season. 

With an owner trying to sell the club it’s unsurprising that money hasn’t been splashed. They’ve replaced the loanee losses with Joe Adams from Wigan, Archie Mair from Norwich, Gerard Garner from Barrow and Nelson Khumbeni (Bolton) - all on loan, and the signing of Kayden Harrack (QPR) and three free agents in Gwion Edwards, Brandon Barker and Oscar Threkeld. Of those seven coming in, five were involved against Colchester, so we’ll want to reassess Morecambe in a couple of weeks. They’ve also added Julian Larsson on loan from Forest this evening.

4/10 - Too much change for it to be positive, and Adam Mayor is a huge loss.

 

Newport

 

It’s basically as you were with the small addition of Luke Jephcott. He’s not scored this season for St Johnstone but he’s proved good enough at this level in the past so Newport will hope to get him going. 

5/10 - An extra body is a positive and takes the head off Will Evans a little. 

 

Notts County

 

With Luke Williams moving onto Swansea Jim O’Brien might have a few players he wants to bring in - especially with Notts County on the edge of the play-offs and the obvious target for the gaggle of clubs behind them. He’s still got everyone together from the first half of the season so far and they’ve added Scott Robertson from Fleetwood, and also Alassana Jatta from Viborg - a club also owned by the same group as County. 

5/10 - Nothing caught the eye

 

Salford

 

Odin Bailey has signed a permanent deal with Stockport having already been there on loan, while Callum Morton has returned from his time at Forest Green. Jez Davies is an interesting one - he was well thought of at Burnley so his free-transfer might well come with future sell-on clauses you suspect. 

 

With Luke Bolton joining Wrexham on deadline day, the arrival of Dan Chester could be the like-for-like replacement. He’s come through the ranks at West Ham and has already enjoyed successful loans at this level.

6/10 - A quiet window, but coming out stronger

 

Stockport

 

Stockport have been busy. Odin Bailey has played a big part so making him permanent was a priority. Loan recalls have been a threat - but fortunately Joe Cotterill, Alfie Pond and Jayden Richardson have only been fringe contributors. 

They’ve bolstered the squad with Ethan Bristow from Minnesota, and also Rico Richards from Villa. Connor Lemonheigh-Evans is also back to increase the options as they move into a push for the title, and Lewis Cass adds cover in the backline as well on deadline day.

6/10 Squad looks strong and they’ve done what was needed. 

 

Sutton

 

In a desperate situation at the foot of the table frankly so they’ve hit the market. Sashiel Adom-Malaki gets his first taste of senior football on-loan from Millwall, the same is true of Jay Williams from Fulham, while Oliver Sanderson scored goals at Oxford City during the first half of the season and Sutton are hoping he can perform in the Football League. Jury is out on all three and it seems a lot of faith to put in ones so young. Charlie Lakin is more experienced and joins from Burton until the end of the season, while Stephen Duke-McKenna is inexperienced having mostly played in the Conference South. 

Both Aiden O’Brien and Dion Pereira return to parent clubs. 

3/10 A bit of change, but hard to see it working. Watch their numbers closely over the coming weeks. 

 

Swindon

 

It’s a tough period for Swindon, who have been penalised for a late HMRC payment with an embargo placed on the club for this window preventing them paying any fees. It might suit them with budgets reasonably tight anyway. The main news in this window was the recalls of both Jake Young and Dan Kemp - the pair had scored 30 league goals between them so it’s a huge challenge for the management team to mitigate the impact. Remeao Hutton has also joined Gillingham for a fee and despite having a weaker season than in 22/23, he’s still a big loss, as is Liam Kinsella from the holding role. Regular stopper Murphy Mahoney was also recalled at the end of December to QPR. 

Plenty of work to do therefore, and they’ve signed striker Paul Glatzel from Tranmere - a promising player but one already with a history of tricky injuries. Swindon are well known for having a great strength and conditioning department so if anywhere is going to get him back on track, it’s them. Nevertheless, it’s a risk. Goalkeeping duties are entrusted to Jack Bycroft who steps up from non-league appearances earlier in the season with Aldershot and Oxford City, while Pharrell Johnson makes his first steps in the senior game in defence. 

They’ve also hit the loan market for Conor McCarthy and Dawson Devoy who is one I’m hoping to see thrive, while Aaron Drinan has been great and terrible at different times in his career so he’s a bit of a gamble, but it could pay off. 

In a late late update, Harry McKirdy has rejoined Swindon on loan until the end of the season. Now that IS big news! McKirdy is probably the most hated played in the League Two, but that hate comes for a reason. He's a real danger if they can get him going as he was 12 months ago!

5/10 - Always playing catch up after losing Young and Kemp

 

Tranmere

15 points clear of relegation and eight off the play-offs (but 10 places) you can forgive Tranmere with opting to stick rather than twist. Rob Apter’s loan has been extended. That’s it!

5/10 - No danger of relegation so opted to stick


Walsall

Similar to Tranmere, this season is petering out so arguably becomes one of long term strategy rather than short termism. Fraser Draper scored 10 goals whilst on loan from Lincoln and the youngster has been rewarded with a recall and a spot in the first team in League One. That will be a loss of the Saddlers. Mo Faal will replace him and could kick on in a better side than Doncaster. Josh Gordon also joins from Burton. 

5/10 - Somethings stable and boring is fine


Wrexham

The Welsh side like to do things late. They waited until deadline day to pounce on Jack Marriot. He’s clearly a cut above League One having top scored in League One a few years ago and a spell at Fleetwood just hasn’t worked out. Expect plenty of goals from him from here on in! They’ve also brought in Luke Bolton from Salford who looks a perfect addition on the right side - he’ll surely play the wing-back role there and he’s another proven operator. 

They’ve let Billy Waters depart on loan to Doncaster. 

8/10 Looking to nail the run-in

 

League Two Penalty Takers

Posted on 20 Aug 2023 17:56 in Free Content From Stattobets

Penalty Takers – League Two

 

I always start to think about dipping into the Top Goalscorer Market again a few weeks into the season. After 4-6 game weeks we should have a better idea about who really looks good from a team perspective, we can also start to see a bit of shot data emerging about the strikers to which we can add some xG data, and crucially we might also know who is on penalties for a good few teams. That’s important if you want to land a Top Scorer Bet.

 

Here’s the top four scorers (and ties) in League Two for the last four years.

2022/23

Andy Cook – 28 Goals (4 Pens)

Sam Hoskins – 22 Goals (3 Pens)

Kristian Dennis – 20 Goals (3 Pens)

Omar Bogle – 17 Goals (5 Pens)

 

2021/22

Dom Telford – 25 Goals (2 Pens)

Matt Stevens – 23 Goals  (1 Pen)

Harry KcKirdy – 21 Goals

Jamile Matt – 19 Goals (3 Pens)

 

2020/21

Paul Mullin – 31 Goals (11 Pens)

Eoin Doyle – 19 Goals (3 Pens)

Matt Jay – 27 Goals (4 Pens)

Jamile Matt – 17 Goals (3 Pens)

Ian Henderson 17 Goals (5 Pens)

Conor McAleny – 17 Goals (3 Pens)

Danny Johnson – 17 Goals (2 Pens)

 

2019/20

Eoin Doyle – 25 Goals (2 Pens)

Ryan Bowman – 14 Goals (1 Pen)

Nicky Maynard – 14 Goals

Jerryy Yates – 13 Goals (1 Pen)

Ollie Palmer – 13 Goals (1 Pen)

 

Only 2 of the 20 players to win or place in the market have failed to score a penalty during the season. My point is simple here – being on penalties is a really good way of narrowing the list of potential League Top Scorers come the end of the season. So without further ado – here are the players who have taken their sides' penalties so far this season after four matches!

 

AFC Wimbledon – Ali Al Hamadi (2 – both missed) and James Tilley (1 scored – may take over as penalty taker potentially)

Mansfield – Lucas Atkins

Bradford – Andy Cook

Tranmere – Josh Hawkes

Wrexham – Elliot Lee

Newport – Adam Lewis

Crewe – Chris Long

Crawley – Dom Telford (missed)

Harrogate – Jack Muldoon

Morecambe – Michael Mellon

League Two Opening Day Review

Posted on 5 Aug 2023 21:17 in Free Content From Stattobets

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League Two Opening Day Review

 

Once again if you only come for the tips, you can safely ignore this article.

 

Sutton are top of the leauge after thrashing Notts County 5-1. Omari Patrick netted twice after his free transfer from Carlisle but County goalkeeper Aidan Stone was shown red early on, so we need to treat all the data with caution here of course, and interestingly it was Notts County who saw most of the ball despite being down to ten.  

 

I’d say the jury is defintiely out in terms of what to make of that performance – Sutton won’t convert 83% of shots on target going through the season and their xG only amounted to 1.43 despite scoring five. On a positive note for the visitors, David McGoldrick wasted no time opening his account for the season.

Pre-season relegation favourites Crawley Town collected three points against promotion hopeful's Bradford and it was no more than they deserved as they created a strong of chances in the match, while Mansfield should rue haing Calum MacDonald sent off. They've been firmly in charge for the majoroty of the match until that point, but allowed Crewe back into a match they should have had sown up by then. 

 

Harrogate Town travelled to Donny without star-man Luke Armstrong, and his imminent departure is terrible news for the Sulphurites. I watched that match and frankly Town were pretty awful - generating just 0.21 non-penalty xG, and that could well become the norm unless they can sign a decent front man. I'm not holding out much hope and they could well be a side who struggle to score goals now as a result. 

 

If you're looking for a result which simply "wasn't fair" then Salford's 2-0 win at Forest Green has a good shout. FGR were the better side on all the metrics that matter (apart from goals scored). They passed better, took more shots, created more high quality chances, hit the woodwork and generally dominated. They will be one to watch in the markets next week for sure. 

I'm struggling to make much of the Grimsby v AFC Wimbledon draw, while Morecambe opened with an important and deserved win over Walsall. If Morecambe being a relegation prospect could own that match, you wonder if Walsall could be a troubled side in the months ahead. Plenty will be made of Gillingham's win at Stockport, but it looks like that result could have gone either way really and was probably a bit of an upset. 

 

Our weekend selection Accrington ran out 3-0 winners against Newport but I wont be crowing about this as the match was pretty level but for the sharper finishing from the home side. The visitors should be more pleased with their performance than they were about the outcome.

 

Barrow have been a few people's picks to over achieve in League Two this time around - but they stole a win from Tranmere that they never deserved. They scored with two from three shots on target and were out-played throughout. Tranmere might need to concentrate on their final-third performance, but they definitely don't appear to have been well treated by lady-luck.  

 

Finally Wrexham have conceded five goals already as they lost 5-3 to MK Dons. People will be getting excited about it all, but MK actually netted five from just 0.76 xG so I wouldnt be getting concerned for the Welsh side just yet. They landed 23 shots themselves including 13 inside the box. 

League One Opening Day Review

Posted on 5 Aug 2023 19:00 in Free Content From Stattobets

 


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League One Opening Day Review

Once again if you only come for the tips, you can safely ignore this article.

 

Devante Cole has been around forever, but this weekend was his first ever hat-trick. For a Barnsley side who need to get going again after the loss of Michael Duff, a 7-0 win was an incredible start to the season. Of course the scoreline flattered them – they won the xG 2.29 – 0.58, but they’ll nevertheless be delighted and took all five of ther “big chances” as defined by Opta. Port Vale were on my list of teams to struggle this season, so I’ll be watching their next few performances very closely.

Blackpool won 2-0 against Burton and looked really good value for that win. They dominated the ball and created all the big moments, restricting Burton to half chances. Lots have Blackpool in for a promotion challenge and match-day 1 added evidence to that opinion.

Lincoln can have no complaint at losing to Bolton as they failed to hit the target at all, but Oxford might feel slightly hard done by – they lost 2-0 to Cambridge who put away both their proper chances in the game and may well have been fortunate to win. Carlilse v Fleetwood looks to have been reasonably entertaining, but both might need to work better chances rather than relying on quantity of efforts.

 

Charlton came close to making my list of sides to compete for the division and they landed an xG of 1.74 – 0.29 against Leyton Orient. I’ve not changed my mind about them, so they could find themselves added to the antepost portfolio in weeks to come as the evidence builds. `

 

Derby v Wigan was a really interesting battle. The Latics took the first three point step towards zero points, but the xG and shot counts suggest they might have been fortunate to be so ruthelss. They managed just three shots on target in the match and were slightly behind on the xG, but Derby created the vast majorty of chances which bodes well for their chances going forwards if they can get a bit more incisive.

 

Stevenage just about deserved the points at Northampton, while Portsmouth shaded the match in a 1-1 draw with Brsitol Rovers. Our Reading relegation bet got off to a big start as they were beaten, but it looks a match of half-chances. Shrewsbury look to have put in a big shift to beat Cheltenham as they created the better chances. It looks like Cheltenham might have been told to shoot on sight.

 

Finally Exeter winning 3-0 at Wycombe might have been one of the shocks of the day, and they fully deserved the win. Could Wycombe be in trouble this season is probably the question we will look to answer over the next week or two.  

Championship Opening Day Review

Posted on 5 Aug 2023 18:32 in Free Content From Stattobets

 


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Opening Weekend Thoughts

No tips here - so if you're someone who just llkes to scroll to the end, you can skip this one!

One part of my process is reviewing what we’ve just seen – really important at the start of the season so I decided to spend an hour immdiately post match reviewing what the early data might suggest, 

 

In the Championship it looks like Blackburn fully deserved the points against West Brom. While the Baggies did well on the shot count, most were poor half-chances and Blackburn worked the ball into the box to ensure their shots were of much higher quality. A draw was a fair result at Bristol City v Preston as the hosts edged the first half and Preston dominated in the second. It's worth noting Preston created their best efforts from open play, while the Robins relied on a few set-plays. Millwall were surprise winners at Middlesbrough. Michael Carricks hosts had most of the ball, and carved out more chances, but it was Millwall who really made things count and they deserved their win in the end.

 

Norwich are worth a line in the note-book as they completely dominated Hull despite winning just 2-1. They saw 57% of the ball and created a swathe of chances. Had it ended all square they would have been robbed. Look a good early runner on the data.

 

Plymouth and Huddersfield played out an entertaining match. The xG ended 2.17-1.91 suggesting both might be worth watching on the goals markets in the opening weeks if the market doesn’t react enough to the copious amounts of injury time (more on that, and it’s impacts shortly)

 

Stoke controlled things easily against Rotherham – 4-1 winners and a result which was never in doubt. 71% possession, six genuine big chances (of which they landed three) and 2.38 xG generated. Impressive.

A draw looks fair between Swansea City and Birmingham. A new era feels like it could be dawning for the Blues but there might need to be a revolution behind the scenes before the on-field evolution can begin.

 

Finally, Watford fans will be delighted after an opening day 4-0 win over QPR. It’s really hard to know whether it was all about Watford, or equally about QPR who may very well be a huge relegation candidate this campaign. It was all done by half-time allowing them to make early changes. The won the xG 2.67 / 0.40

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