Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th August

Posted on 27 Aug 2020 07:24 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Newmarket, Goodwood, Redcar and Windsor
  • Football, the Community Shield, Arsenal v Liverpool
  • Cricket, the second T20 International between England and Pakistan in Manchester and the T20 Blast starts next week
  • Tennis, the US Open Next week
  • Golf, the BW Championship on the USPGA and the UK Championship at the Belfry on the European tour
  • Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa

NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)

Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%

 


Free tip

Cricket: The 2020 Vitality T20 Blast

The delayed tournament starts today and runs until the first weekend in October with finals day at Edgbaston.

A revised format is in operation for this year, with three regional groups of six teams each, playing ten games with the quarter-finals to follow. This compares to two groups of nine last year and 14 group games each. This shorter format, and the probability of plenty of weather affected matches this late into the summer and early autumn introduces higher variance into an already high variance competition. Just to add to the unpredictability, three venues will host multiple matches (for TV double header purposes) in Manchester, Leeds and the Oval such that a variety of teams won’t play a full complement of matches at their home grounds, others more than 50% at home.

You might see where this is going. The betting market is 7/1 the field (Notts ), 10/1 bar the top three (Notts, Sussex, Somerset) and each way terms are ½ 1,2. I am very much looking to find an unfancied, unfashionable outsider in the betting market given the variance factors at play. Another factor is the competition won’t contain many overseas players, levelling the playing field between big and smaller budget counties

I had two candidates, Derbyshire and Durham. Derbyshire made finals day last year, doing well in the Bob Willis trophy this year and resolutely ignored in betting markets at 25-1. The big problem here is that they play all 10 group games away from Derby but nonetheless they are fast improving and were it to be confirmed that the competition’s leading wicket taker last season, Ravi Rampaul, can make it back from Trinidad for Derbyshire, they’d be on my formal bet list 

Durham meanwhile play 6 out of 10 matches at Chester-le-street. A side full of canny bowlers that suit difficult late season conditions and young batting talent notably Scott Steel and completely unconsidered in the market for a tournament where frankly much is unpredictable. They are without last season’s top scorer Darcy Short, but the price reflects that. They start with a tough game against Lancashire tonight in a match with bad weather expected.

5 points each way Durham 2020 Vitality T20 Blast at 33-1 (1/2 1,2) William Hill (28/1 BetVictor 25/1 generally)


CVC

There’s no doubting CVC’s growing influence in rugby following their investments in both the Gallagher Premiership and the Pro 14 as well as their prospective investment in the Six Nations.

As a young professional sport (1995) there is a lot of commercial potential. CVC are are a minority partner with 27% in both Premiership Rugby and the Pro14, with responsibility to drive success of the commercial side, and no involvement with sporting and regulatory decisions. CVC have invested more than £300m into rugby over the last 18 months. There is a requirement that the money is reinvested into the game rather than taken out as a dividend by the club owners.With hindsight, this project should help rugby survive the Covid pandemic and continue to build the sport over the next ten years.

Of course there are risks. The main cause of friction between the clubs and the RFU is access to players, as the RFU requires players to be released for international commitments. Unlike football, Premiership rugby continues uninterrupted through international windows, and so clubs lose their international players. This causes a conflict as the RFU request players availability, whilst the clubs want their international stars to be playing as much domestic rugby as  possible in order to increase the chances of success on the field. It should be expected that if it is investing significantly, and the aim of its investment is to make a profitable return, CVC will want to drive a harder bargain with the RFU over the cost of player release for international windows. This would be a win-win for the clubs, achieving either more money from the RFU or better player availability. It might not be such a positive for player welfare though

As it did with Formula 1, CVC will be looking to make a profit on its investment. It will therefore likely be seeking to significantly increase the value of the Premiership and then sell it. While the initial investment windfall and the increased value are hugely positive for the clubs, the horizon post-sale is uncertain in terms of both ownership of the league and long-term financial security.


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th August

Posted on 21 Aug 2020 11:24 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Sandown and York and over the jumps at Uttoxeter.
  • Football, the Champions League Final, PSG v Bayern tomorrow night
  • Cricket, the third test between England and Pakistan in Southampton
  • Golf, the Northern Trust Open at TPC Boston on the USPGA and the Wales Open on the European tour

 

NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)

Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%

 


Free tip

Leicester v Bath Saturday 4.30pm

Leicester are second bottom of the Gallagher Premiership table with only Sarcens and their huge points deduction below them. With only four wins all season Leicester have returned to action with a new Head coach in Steve Borthwick and another plan to return to competitiveness. Covid-related Financial constraints haven’t helped in the near term with the departure of Tuilagi and May and some other players released from contract

On their first game back they lost 26-13 at Exeter, a competitive performance but with the achilles heel of recent years making all the difference. Leicester aren’t strong enough in the back five of the pack to withstand the better sides. Borthwick and recruitment will help that but for now it remains a key weakness

Bath are 5th in the table with 8 wins and returned to action under their head coach Neal Hatley with a 34-17 home win against London Irish. A solid side, bolstered by the excellent recruitment of Ben Spencer from Saracens they are very strong up front and it is a surprise to see them initially priced up as underdogs for this game. I would have them clear favourites, with the modest bonus that Leicester (playing at the largest club rugby ground in the country) won’t have the support of their passionate crowd.

22 points Bath to beat Leicester -1 on the handicap at 10/11 generally


Six Appeal

The Six Nations has confirmed the dates for the resumption of the 2020 championship, where fixtures were postponed in March first in Italy then generally with the outbreak of COVID in Europe.

Ireland are confirmed to face Italy on 24th October and then France on Super Saturday 31st October with a line up as follows for that last weekend

Wales v Scotland 2.15pm

Italy v England 4.45pm

France v Ireland 8pm

England currently narrowly lead France at the top of the table each with a 3-1 win-loss record and England with a two point lead on points difference. Ireland are likely to go into their last game in Paris with a 3-1 record too

So far France have scored 13 tries and their captain Ollivon is top try scorer with 4. Owen Farrell is 8 points behind Dan Biggar to be top points scorer (39 to 47) with a trip to Rome to come

France v Ireland is going to be an important and tight game. Early prices have it 10/11 each of two.


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th August

Posted on 14 Aug 2020 08:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, on the flat at Chepstow, Newmarket, Newbury and Doncaster.
  • Football, Champions League Quarter finals
  • Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix
  • Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan in Southampton continues
  • Rugby Union, the return of the English Premiership tonight
  • Snooker, the final weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
  • Golf, the Wyndham Championship on the USPGA and the Celtric Classic on the European tour

York Ebor Festival - Full Package (19th - 22nd August 2020)

Neil Channing returns next week with race-by-race coverage of York’s Ebor festival. The cost for all the write ups is £99.99


NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)

Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%

 


Free tip

Worcester v Gloucester Saturday 3pm BTSport

The Gallagher Premiership returns this weekend as the teams play out the remainder of the season after a five month break, before the new season starts almost immediately.

Gloucester had been having a poor season winning only 4 of 13 games having made the play-offs last year. There has been an overhaul during the down-time with the coach, director of rugby and several players leaving. In their place a new coaching staff has arrived and new recruits include the England winger Johnny May returning to the club. A far more talented side than their results up to March suggested they lost a number of close games, such that their points difference is only -10 across the 13 games.

Worcester have an identical win-loss record, but points conceded exceed points scored by 99.  Perennial basement dwellers in the Premiership four wins is actually an improved performance but they are fortunate that Saracens’ relegation removes that risk for them.

Taking both sides fitness on trust in the first game back, Gloucester have a chance to make the most of their fresh start and show their superiority

11 points Gloucester -3 points to win at Worcester 10/11 generally


Non Stop

Premiership Rugby has confirmed that next season will finish on June 26th...which means requests from the British & Irish Lions, who conduct a ten match tour to current World Champions South Africa next summer, for extra preparation time were rejected (again). Players in this competition will have non-stop rugby from Aug 14th 2020 (the current season resumption) to Aug 7 2021 (the third Lions 3rd Test v South Africa)

This of course raises genuine concerns about player welfare for the top players who have to get through one and a third domestic seasons, the remainder of the 2020 six nations, the Champions cup last 8, autumn internationals, the 2021 Six Nations, the 2020-21 Champions Cup and then go to South Africa without a break. Deep breath!

One bright spot though is that this should not apply to the Saracens players.  Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Elliot Daly, Jamie George and the Vunipola brothers will arrive, injuries permitting, in Africa off a low workload. All six players mentioned would currently feature in most people's Lions Test Match 23.

As Saracens have been relegated into the Championship their international players and certainy Lions will go on tour with no more than 20 games played in the coming season with no European rugby and mainly Six Nation requirements.

In a season that could end up as with a very high rate of injuries and unavailability for the Lions with conflict between between country and club, Saracens players will at least be in a condition to fully contribute..

Not that South Africa have it that easy either. The (presumably full South Hemisphere competition) Super Rugby season starts next February and the Springboks will play from straight through from February to late November

A busy time to be an International rugby player, but an even busier time for their medical staff is likely.

 


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th August

Posted on 7 Aug 2020 10:36 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing,  on the flat at Chester, Salisbury and Thirsk and over the jumps at Uttoxeter.
  • Football, Champions League last 16 matches continue
  • Formula One, the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone
  • Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan at Old Trafford continues
  • Snooker, the middle weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
  • Golf, The PGA Championship in San Francisco

York Ebor Festival (19th-22nd August)

Neil Channing returns with race-by-race coverage of York’s Ebor festival. The cost for all the write ups is £99.99


NFL 2020 (17 Week regular season)

Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with a ROI of +41.47% The cost for all the write ups is £50

 


Free tip

Super Rugby Aotearoa : Hurricanes v Chiefs, Saturday 8.05am

With two rounds of Super Rugby Aotearoa action remaining, a title winner could be decided as early as Sunday. The Crusaders need one win from their two remaining games to win the title. The Hurricanes, who started the season poorly are unlikely victors. They need Need to win their remaining two games, both with a bonus point and hope the Crusaders lose their final two games and furthermore hope the Blues win their final game without a bonus point, and then have a greater points difference

Hurricanes go into this game having won 4 in a row including their 34-32 win at the Crusaders as 13 point underdogs. The six point handicap line here looks low given the incentive (the Crusaders play on Sunday) to win with a bonus point to stay in contention for the title.

The Chiefs have lost 8 games on the spin under Warren Gatland and all seven in Super Rugby this season. There has been criticism that Gatland, who left Wales to go back to New Zealand, for taking a year-long sabbatical to coach the Lions next year. There have also been concerns that the Northern Hemisphere styles and methods he has brought back haven’t suited his squad. Whether this is valid or not results have been poor. The Hurricanes beat the Cheifs 26-18 in Hamilton in week 4 and now host them in Wellington looking for a good victory to kepe the pressure on

22 points Hurricanes -6 evens Betfred and 10/11 generally


Trading Places

In the first seven years of the current NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that is due to be replaced next year,  just eight players, and six non-quarterbacks, were traded for first-round picks. Now nine have taken place in the last 20 months with the trade of the Jets star safety  Jamal Adams to the Seawhawks for multiple draft picks. This is despite the uncertainy COVID brings for potential impact on salary cap in 2021, with league revenues set to decline this year and there is still a willingness for teams who see themselves in contention to look for blockbuster trades with teams who might be in a rebuilding phases.

The fact that trades became more prevalent in the latter years of the current collective bargaining agreement should not be a surprise. As teams grew more and more familiar with the rules of the league's economic system, some of them began to structure contracts in ways that allowed for more flexibility. Over and above this the growth in analytics has led to a greater understanding of, what type of player you get at various draft picks and particularly for teams trading near the end of the first round it can be better to acquire the known commodity rather than unknown. Draft picks can take time to pan out, and this is time that coaches and general managers often don’t have in the modern NFL where future draft picks might be someone else’s to use.

Trading offers other advantages not just against draft picks but also against free agency as a player-acquisition method. In some cases, it offers cost certainty rather than having to outbid another team for a similar player down the line, a trade allows you to secure a player on a known contract for a known price


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd August

Posted on 30 Jul 2020 13:34 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, the final day of the Goodwood Festival
  • Football, the FA Cup final between Arsenal and Chelsea
  • Formula One, the British Grand Prix
  • Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan at Old Trafford begins on Wednesday
  • Snooker, the first weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
  • Golf, The WGC-Fedex St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind

Free tip

First Round World Snooker Championship Barry Hawkins v Alexander Ursenbacher

We’ve heard it all before, that Crucible debutants find it tough on their first tie on the big stage. There are grounds for suspecting that Switzerland’s Alexander Ursenbacher is cut from a different cloth though. He relishes the big match occasion, and his game improves on the TV tables. He has beaten O’Sullivan in 2019 and in the qualifiers, on the featured table, deservedly beat last season’s World Semi-Finalist Gary Wilson 6-3. He is a very attacking player, and if he has a weakness its that sometimes he could rein that back in when the situation demands it, but here he has been handed a winnable first round match. Perhaps anyway, with only a limited crowd in attendance this year, it won’t be quite the intimidating atmosphere that many first timers experience.

We know that Hawkins has a superb Crucible record, for six years between 2012-18 he made two finals, three semis and a quarter final. However he is now ranked 15th for this event and 20th on the provisional rankings. In most years between 5-7 seeds lose in the first round, and I could make the case that with the seeds having so little competitive play this season (a Championship league is all those who did not qualify for the tour championships have had) that the risk against qualifiers who have played in some cases three qualifying matches over the past week is greater this year. Ursenbacher for example played 34 frames in three qualifying matches. Hawkins last played competitively in Gibraltar in March.

The match is played on 4th-5th August

10 points Alexander Ursenbacher to beat Barry Hawkins at 3/1 with Betfred  and Bet365


Domestic cricket is back

A shortened 2020 county cricket season starts this weekend. Counties have been split into three regions and will play five games in a shortened first-class tournament, the Bob Willis Trophy. The regional split, chosen to reduce travel for the teams, is as follows:

Central group: Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Somerset, Glamorgan, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire

North group: Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Durham, Yorkshire, Leicestershire, Lancashire

South group: Essex, Kent, Surrey, Middlesex, Sussex, Hampshire

As well as the Bob Willis Trophy, there will also be a shortened T20 Blast competition beginning on 27th August.

In the Bob Willis Trophy, the two group winners with the most points will meet in a five-day final, potentially at Lords. Results in the Bob Willis Trophy will not determine which divisions counties play in next summer, with no relegation or promotion this year.

Eight points will be awarded for drawn matches, up from the current five points, while all other scoring remains unchanged. In a bid to reduce injury risk, there will be a minimum of 90 overs of play each day, down from 96. First innings can last no more than 120 overs per side, while the follow-on has been increased from 150 to 200 runs.The new ball will be available after 90 overs, 10 overs later than normal.

An ante-post market has gone up this week and its 7/1 the field, and its a trcky betting heat over group phases wit only five matches per team with no doubt weather variance coming into play. The South Group in particular is very hard to predict as four previous division one teams reside in the SOuth of England the other two groups look less competitive and a winners short-list should probably be Somerset, Warwickshire and Lancashire. Lancashire at 10/1 would be my view if asked, but the main thing for us cricketing dinosaurs is that the county scene is back.


StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - UK and European Football - Tennis - Darts

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,703. All bets have an ROI +2.59%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,703 a 1117% increase

 

<<12345678910>>Jump to page: