NFL 2025 - What to Expect...
The 2025 Season: What to expect....
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Ahead of the first week of the 2025 season I thought I would talk about some of the structural themes taking place in the NFL.
Again in 2024 we saw an early season trend that offenses struggled relative to defenses. Part of this is intuitive - many starting offenses do not play much in pre-season - and it takes time to gel, especially if it’s a new scheme with new co-ordinators and/or new Quarterbacks. This generally sorts itself by about week 5-6.
From that point on 2024 produced different results than in 2022-23 across the NFL. Prior to last season NFL scoring had had fallen to its lowest levels since the late 2000s. Last year across all regular season games there were on average 2.55 offensive touchdowns a game up from 2.25 in 2023 (the lowest level since 2014). There is some way to go, it is still down from 2.74 in 2020, but offenses began to improve relative to defenses in 2024.
I wrote last year that the NFL is a cyclical game. The overwhelming restriction on offenses prior to last season was defenses playing two deep safeties with the primary aim of restricting big passing plays (“explosives” in NFL parlance). This itself was a response to rule changes that made it more difficult for defenses to defend wide receivers without incurring penalties.
This is all a major part of continual counter-punching between offense and defense. Coming out of the 2020 season, NFL defenses had gained the upper hand by playing more shell coverage, fielding more defensive backs, and playing lighter fronts. The premise was to prevent big plays and force offenses to run more.
In 2024, offenses were able to get defenses to adjust their approach slightly. After nickel defense had increased year over year for four straight seasons, this was the first time it dipped from the previous season since 2019. 2025 could see the “bottoming out” of the two-high shell. It's been an effective switch by defenses, but more teams establising the run with better efficiency will mean more defenders get pushed nearer the line of scrimmage and then up goes passing scoring.
I said a year ago “At some stage this is going to swing back as innovative offense finds a solution. Is it this season?” It was, to an extent.
I also talked about the changes to kick off rules that were changed for 2024 with the aim of making kick-offs a relevant offensive play again.
A few stats for what happened last year to cause this offensive improvement:
- As a result of the kickoff changes, offenses started possessions on average at their 29.7-yard line after a kickoff (touchback or return), the best rate of the last 25 years.
- Offenses had three or more wide receivers on the field for 63% of their snaps in 2024, the lowest rate since 2019.
- 35% of all yards gained were via rushing, the second-highest rate since 2008.
- NFL runners averaged 2.9 yards after contact per rush, the highest rate since that data has been tracked (2006).
- Offenses scored 96 more touchdowns last season than the year before.
- Teams averaged 0.94 rushing touchdowns per game, the second most since the league expanded to 32 teams.
- There were 55 more passing touchdowns than we had in 2023 and 59 more than there were in 2022.
There are more kick-off rule changes for this year which should mean more returns and fewer touchbacks which is likely to increase scoring across the league as some drives have a chance to start near the 50.
Back in 2019 offenses used motion on 50% of snaps. In 2024 it was on 61% of snaps. It will go higher in 2025 as offenses move to create more advantages over the defense than they displayed in 2019-23, and I will try to explain why below.
This year there appears, from looking across training camps, to be a more widespread use of other offensive innovations that could continue to address NFL passing game issues:
- the use of cluster formations where groups of wide receivers line up in a condensed group rather than in a line across the field and then motion into various formations at the snap. Defenses whether in man or zone coverage can find it difficult to diagnose the ultimate offensive formation which is “in place” very late. The 2022-2023 Miami Dolphins in the early years of Coach Mike McDaniel with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had a lot of success with this, so to an extent the Minnesota Vikings last year.
- Increased use of the “Pistol” (what is the “pistol”? see appendix) formation, up over 10% of total NFL snaps last year, a level last seen in 2015. For starters the Atlanta Falcons were a big user of the pistol once they introduced their rookie Quarterback into the line-up late season to great effect, 47% of snaps, whilst the hottest NFL offense last year the Bengals ran the pistol at above average levels too. I think it will happen a lot more in the NFL with so many talented college Quarterbacks used to playing most snaps in the shotgun.
Whether a further increased use of motion/condensed formations/pistol works across the league will be a major determining factor for 2025 but in principle the pendulum has swung back towards offense and hopefully accelerate the trend from 2024 until defenses adjust and we go into another cycle.
I won't pretend to over-emphasise this, but thought it was interesting. We've just finished pre-season with games obviously missing a lot of starters and plain vanilla defense but we've seen the following:
Average points per pre-season game:
2025 41.0
2024 34.9
2023 39.7
2022 39.5
2021 35.9
I’ll be back with firstly two ante-post write ups covering season-long markets whether that be Superbowl, conferences, divisions and teams and then player markets (passing yards, rushing, receiving and rookies).
Then Week One write-ups. I will have something for the opening game of the season, on Thursday 4th September. There’s also a game on Saturday 6th in Brazil, so I will look at that separately before moving onto the Sunday games.
Here is the report Schedule for the next ten days:
Friday 29th "Ante-Post Team Markets"
Monday 1st "Ante-Post Player markets"
Wednesday 3rd "Opening game Dallas at Philly"
Thursday 4th "Chiefs at Chargers in Brazil"
Friday 5th "Sunday week one"
Most of the weekly work beyond Week One will be published on the Friday afternoon of each week (last year prices were usually live early enough to publish before each weekend, but potentially it might be on a Saturday morning) focusing on games on Sunday/Monday of the 18 weeks of the regular season.
A few years ago we took the view, after a long period of stagnant NFL results, to move away from the efficient team point spread markets and towards player props. This will continue this year.
The bread-and-butter of our player prop work is anytime touchdown scorers and occasional first touchdown scorers. I know some subscribers take anytime bets and back them in first touchdown scorer markets accepting higher variance and perhaps only a few winning bets each season at higher prices but, in this the fourth year of this Betting Emporium strategy, we go for the lower variance approach. Other markets can be player passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards over/unders to give some frequent examples.
I don’t cover each game every weekend but was covering up to 8 a week last year and each game “shows the workings” looking at match-ups between team units as well as player statistics. Focusing on the weekly games with good top-down match-ups is the first filter for where to delve further.
A key point here is that after the first few weeks when trends settle down the data will indicate factors such as good rushing offenses, poor run defenses and so on and that once a team’s roster and coaching is set after the draft, free agency and the training camp then it is difficult to improve the weaknesses of a unit. The one exception to this is before the NFL trade deadline (this year November 4th, Week 8), but such moves being major enough to, for example, turn an under-average league rushing defense into a top unit are very rare. Injuries can also have a major impact within units and teams. Quarterback is the obvious position where a season-changing injury can render the statistics of an offense obsolete but it can happen across any position to either create or remove a betting opportunity in any weekly match-up.
Examples in recent years were targeting the Panthers and Cowboys run defense, looking for Tight Ends against Arizona who struggled to defend the middle of the field, looking for opportunities in the Lions offense (4.1 touchdowns a game last year), looking for rushing Quarterbacks (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen the main examples) in the short yardage running game. I am sure 2025 will throw up new opportunities and the aim will be to sort signal from noise quickly. A few of the teams I have top of my list to target so far are the Dolphins (particularly the secondary), Cowboys (run) and Bengals (run and pass) defenses.
It is not surprising that in each of the last three years weekly results for our approach have improved into and through the second half of the season as trends establish. Logically therefore unit sizes should begin by being modest, and bigger weekly bets made after the first 5-6 weeks.
There is one factor I will be watching this year though in the early weeks, which is that compared to the last few years many more starters have played during the pre-season. Not all teams, but some have decided that the reps getting these players into sync are worth the risk of an injury. I wonder if the Chiefs’ approach of playing starters in pre-season and their subsequent success is any kind of inspiration. Research shows that players are better off playing in the pre-season even if not for very long. There is a reason Tom Brady always played in the pre-season, and a reason Patrick Mahomes does now.
Last year really for the first time the top-down trend (more rushing success) was reflected in a key market very early. With offenses running the ball more and better against lighter defenses, as early as Week 7 there was very little value available in taking, for example, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry (the poster boys of the league wide trend) anytime touchdown scorer prices or over rushing yards. 1-2 anytime and over 110-120 rushing yards was the routine market price. Because of the lack of “value” these types of names appeared in the weekly bets less than I might have expected having identified the macro-theme correctly and depressed returns somewhat. We’ll have to see what this season brings both at a macro level and bottom-up for player prices.
Thank you to subscribers new and old, here’s to a good season. I’m available any time on X DMs( account is @tighty) for NFL discussions, or clarifications about bets/prices/markets etc.
Appendix
What is the “pistol”?
Like operating in “shotgun”, quarterback seven yards behind the center, the "pistol" formation also has the quarterback taking a deeper snap from center. However, in this formation, the quarterback lines up only about 3 or 4 yards behind the center, with a running back beside him. The pistol formation gives an offensive scheme more options at the snap of the ball. It's an easier run formation than the shotgun. However, it still allows the quarterback to get the ball in throwing position quickly for timing routes.
Crucially because the running back lines up to one side of the Quarterback the defense has to tip its plan/slide its defense one way to counter the run, thus allowing the Quarterback more ability to read the field.
Join us for the NFL 2025 regular season and get all our write ups and bets from Rich 'Tighty' Prew for 18 weeks of games.
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