BDO Darts 2020 FREE Preview
2020 BDO World Darts Championship (Sat 4th Jan - Sun 12th Jan)
The BDO World Championships
Dave's free preview and a 25/1 bet that we really like are posted below. If you want to get all Dave's further BDO write ups, including a full preview, a look at each quarter and a talk through some of the players, special bets and individual matches you can get that by signing up and joining his monthly soccer subscribers. If you already subscribe you don't have to do anything you automatically get them for free in the usual section.
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2020 BDO World Darts Championship
Dates: Sat, 4 Jan 2020 – Sun, 12 Jan 2020
Location: The O2, London
We’ve barely finished the PDC World Darts Championships and already the BDO version of the event is getting underway. Unfortunately, the tungsten landscape at the BDO is not evolving well right now, with the seeming lack of professionalism and relentless problems behind the scenes threatening to finally kill off the BDO once and for all. We often enter the event with a mixture of views from Darts fans split roughly down the middle. In the Red Corner – those who wouldn’t dare be caught watching the lesser players struggling on their doubles (even on those occasions when the cameraman focuses on the right bed). In the Blue Corner we have a set of fans who appreciate that, whilst not quite your MvG v Peter Wright, the standard on show is still very high indeed, with the opportunity to spot the next PDC bound wonder-kid.
This year things are much more serious though. After announcing a move to the O2 for this year’s renewal, the BDO have been hammered with controversy, problems and embarrassment.
First we have the issue of ticket sales – with the organisers announcing that just 15% of tickets have been sold with days to go.
The second, related impact, is that the prize money has been cut for the players at the last minute. A fall in ticket sales and revenue has directly impacted everything, and the prize pot has been slashed in half for this year. Indeed, the winner of the Womens Final will receive just £8,000 – less than a 1/3rd of the income Fallon Sherrock received for reaching the 3rd round at the Ally Pally.
Then we have Sherrock of course. The newest news on the darting circuit. Just when the BDO would have been hoping to cash in on her new found fame, she has pulled out of the event just four days before the curtain raiser! Tournament Director Des Jacklin is no stranger to shambolic tournaments – back in October the field turned up for the World Masters only to be faced with a redraw, accusations of fake-names being placed into the draw and prize money cuts. So we enter the tournament in dark days indeed. At least Jacklin is stepping aside, but not in-time for this event.
What does this all mean from a betting perspective?
Well first off, if you ask the Darts Compilers around the industry, most would probably tell you (privately at least) that they’d prefer the tournament wasn’t even going ahead. Stakes on the event are always going to be less significant with a combination of a lack of recognisable names, less readily available data to work with, and a lower standard generally increasing volatility of results. All in all, it’s a lot of work for relatively little upside.
Then we have the types of bets they are going to lay. With lower interest, it’s inevitably harder to make a profit, as the proportion of money coming from those that know what they are doing bound to be greater than usual. Bet limits will be managed accordingly, price changes will happen quicker, and frankly – the number of firms keeping decent data on players who appear on TV once a year are likely to be slim to none. The reality is that there will be a great deal of watching each others prices, and trying to avoid putting too much up above the parapets!
This can work both for and against the punter. If a mistake is made by those showing their odds first, there is a very good chance others will follow, and we might see that value represented with a number of firms. The down side is that it won’t take much money to start moving the markets quickly. Who wants to be that trader explaining a big red number on an event which many people hardly knew was going on? Risk aversion will be the order of the day.
For me, I think it’s a fun time to come out and play. I’ve had plenty of success in the darts arena in the past – mostly focusing on data-led markets rather than the main match winner markets in the professional game. This is the data the bookies spend less time looking at. In terms of the BDO though, even the match winner market begins to fall into this group, as results for many of the players are hard to find, and often even harder to compare to each other. This is where I’ve historically found my edge, and hope to continue doing into this event. Last year’s event for StattoBets returned a 34% profit after 45 bets.
I’ll be covering any picks as and when they present themselves as an added extra in my usual Football Section – these picks will be available for everyone who takes the monthly football package. To kick us off though, I thought it would be fair to share one interesting outright pick at a hefty price – young Welshman Nick Kenny.
At just 26, Nick is a player who still has ambitions and he comes into this event absolutely bang in form. His timing to make an impression could barely be better, and with the state of the BDO right now I’d be surprised if he wasn’t at Q-School in February.
Since September Nick has been on-fire – he won the Bruges Open – emerging victorious from a field including the likes of Wesley Harms, Richard Veenstra, Andy Hamilton and Martin Adams. He then reached the semi-finals of the WDF World Cup singles, and was a winner of the team event for Wales. Following that he made it to the semi-finals of both the Italian Grand Masters and Italian Open. Both events attracted superb fields for this level. He is in the same half of the draw as Jim Williams (but wouldn’t face him until the semi-finals) and has also avoided Wesley Harms and Scott Waites. Of course Richard Veenstra is a serious threat in the quarter-finals, but get past that one and we’d have a really strong contender for the title in my view. He’s 28/1 in a couple of places, with lots of 25/1 around as well. Surely worth a small e/w bet?
Recommended Bet :
Nick Kenny 2 points each way (½ 1,2) at 28/1 (Bet365 and a number of smaller firms)
25/1 generally available (we will include the bet at 25/1 for our record keeping)
If you fancy getting your hands on the rest of Dave’s thoughts and picks ahead of the championship, including a full outright preview, all his picks will be included as part of his regular Football columns. Recommended stakes will be modest as getting on large stakes can be difficult, and we are only just starting to see 180s lines appear, so fingers crossed more firms follow suit shortly.
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Last season’s event saw StattoBets advise 45 bets, with a 34% profit achieved, including calling Glen Durrant and Scott Waites as two of the three outright selections – Durrant beat Waites in the final.
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2020 BDO World Darts Championship (Sat 4th Jan - Sun 12th Jan)
Will appear here at 6pm Friday January 3rd 2020