NFL 2020 What To Expect - (Regular Season Package)

NFL 2020 What To Expect - (Regular Season Package)

Posted on 3 Sep 2020 11:02 in NFL 2020 What To Expect - (Regular Season Package)


NFL 2020 (17 week regular season) -  By Rich 'Tighty' Prew available here for £50

2019 results won +99.52 points with an ROI of +41.47%



2020 NFL Regular season Package, what to expect

At the time of writing the new NFL season is due to begin as scheduled on Thursday 10th September with the Superbowl champion Kansas City Chiefs playing the Houston Texans.

Just over a year ago Neil and I discussed a change of tack for Betting Emporium’s NFL coverage, where results had been lacklustre (excepting markets like Superbowl props) for a few seasons betting primarily point spread over/unders and total game points.

We hypothesised that the edge in betting such mainstream lines was minimal, with those lines often knocked into shape early in weeks and Neil mainly writing towards the end of the week and that we would switch for the 2019 regular season to looking at other less hopefully well-researched sub-markets where potentially there were market inefficiencies.

In no particular order it was thought that these would be anytime touchdown scorer (and occasional first touchdown scorer bets, obviously a higher variance line) and over/under quotes on player markets like rushing, receiving and passing yards markets for single games. The immediate downside was an obvious one, getting on! A secondary downside was that a range of UK layers had widened their margins on a number of these sub-markets in recent years (17/20 and 5/6 in the over/under markets, no longer 10/11 each of two for example), and some did not offer them at all.

Six weeks into the 2019 season, I was staring at the floor and questioning all of this, as we had recorded six losers which of course is a small sample but nonetheless disappointing for my first go at a new approach. However it turned round and by the end of the regular season the package had won 99.52 points with an ROI of +41.47% generally betting in the region of 10 points per game.

So how did that happen? Well I learned that there were indeed edges in these more esoteric markets. My knowledge, over and above being a fan for many years and having a statistics background at University and my first career, was increased from a statistical and research viewpoint when I got involved in NFL fantasy football where formats vary but all have one thing in common. Research into who should go into starting line ups based on the strengths and weaknesses of the various player units on teams (not just offense and defense, but positions such as offensive line, linebacker, cornerback etc) and team tendencies. What do they run when they are ahead, what do they run when they are behind, who do they go to in such situations, how is the game likely to play and where are the mis-matches in strength and weakness that we should target?

With the benefit of hindsight I established to my satisfaction that it wasn’t a surprise that early results were a struggle. In any season, all of course with player and coaching changes, it takes a while even if it is only a few weeks play for unit strengths and weaknesses to be apparent. By the time these trends were in place and research was identifying them, it was all systems go in terms of our results.

This season that is likely to be exacerbated because there have been no pre-season games and no off-season at all until training camps. So for these trends bettors have an information deficit but so do the bookmakers. In terms of early season, there is likely to be an advantage for teams with established coaching sets ups and quarterbacks and in terms of offense v defense its been assumed that defences will be on top early in the season (takes a while for offenses to get in synch, and without four pre-season games even if the starters only play sporadically…) but I am not sure. I could easily see defences struggling for conditioning at the end of games. It could be that we are in line for high scoring games instead but it’s all conjecture. No one has seen an NFL season with no off-season (apart from Zoom meetings) and no pre-season matches.

There is another factor at play. The NFL has issued edicts, at the behest of many teams looking to keep information close to their chest, that reporters are not allowed to publically state which players in training camp are running with the first team, second team etc or the formations they are playing in. Training camp film, previously often covered as “good content” on official team sites, is sparse. Some information is out there still, so I am looking at that and hoping the mainstream won’t be easily able to do so!

So the plan for this season. Already looking at matches and match ups for week 1. Typically I will cover one game in detail each week, and in the background work on a second match in case prices in the relevant market on the first disappear. The match often won’t be the marquee match up of the week between the big name franchises or those matches appearing Thursday, Sunday or Monday night football. The less fashionable franchises and matches involving them provided fertile ground last season. In addition I will look at rookie players, where I have long been interested in the NFL draft and have covered in profitably on Betting Emporium. If these players are in situations to get game time and match ups before they are widely known, its good for us. I can think of 8-10 of these straight away which might be an early week focus. Of course it might help us that defences have no pre-season tape on these guys if we can try to extrapolate some draft analysis.

I will look to publish on a Friday, though this could be a Saturday morning depending when prices populate. It was getting closer and closer to games last season. In terms of staking for all the reasons above, caution in the early weeks but unlike last year where I felt I under-staked from week 9-10 onwards there is the ability to ramp things up once trends are in place. Lets see how it goes

If you join us, rest assured that there will be a lot of in depth research underpinning the weekly write-ups. Where that leads us is part of the fun!


Sign up to the NFL 2020 (17 week regular season) for just £50 here


2019 results won +99.52 points with an ROI of +41.47%