Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 17th-18th January
- NFL Play-Offs: The NFC and AFC Conference games. The play-offs continue this weekend with two games on Sunday. Green Bay, our ante-post Superbowl pick, at Seattle and Indianapolis at New England. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the Superbowl sign up here
- Football Premier League and a full Football league programme with Manchester City against Arsenal a highlight on Sunday afternoon
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton
- Snooker The 2015 Masters concludes at the Alexandra Palace with the O'Sullivan/Robertson semi-final on Saturday at 1pm set to be a cracker.
- Tennis, the 2015 season continues with tournaments in Sydney and Auckland building up to the first grand slam of the season, the Australian Open in Melbourne next week
- Golf, the new season continues with the USPGA Tour at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and the European Tour's Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship.
- Cricket, warm ups for the World Cup continue with Australia playing India in the Tri-series and South Africa hosting the West Indies in One day Internationals
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WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014
DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014
SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014
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Australian Open Tennis - January 19th to February 1st by Nigel Seeley
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Free Tip of the Week
For an NFL prop bettor, we are about to reach the best weekend of the year with the Superbowl where odds-setters will offer us a wealth of opportunities. With the two NFL conference games this weekend there is also a wider than normal range to choose from.
Of the two games, New England is a tough prop team to bet, as Bill Belichick is very unpredictable in his game planning versus other coaches. Last week for example saw trick plays and alingnment wrinkles. My focus instead is on the Green Bay at Seattle game, in part because i have ante-post positions on Green Bay recommended which were a motivation to look at the game very closely.
At first glance, Green Bay face a huge task in Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the great defenses and are the first team to lead NFL in fewest points per game and yards per game allowed in consecutive seasons since the legendary 1985-86 Chicago Bears. Seattle have a renowned home advantage and the Packers, with 318 points at home and 168 on the road during the regular season created a record, as no team in NFL history has a bigger home/road points split. On top of that Aaron Rodgers has a calf tear, beat Dallas on one leg and this weekend is likely to be similarly restricted against a far better defense.
I'll leave Neil to talk about points spreads, points totals etc in his NFL Play off package (sign up here) and instead take all of the above and look at what strategy Green Bay have to use to give themselves the best chance of winning. As I found last week, with Denver rather mystifyingly deciding to rely on big plays from an injured Peyton Manning to win rather than running the ball consistently, this might not be the approach adopted but to my mind its their best chance and if correct helps us identify where some prop value may be.
Teams that have been unable to run the football against Seattle fall behind and typically get stuck in passing situations where the defense knows a pass is coming on virtually every play. That plays directly into Seattle’s hands as it allows their pass rush to ignore run responsibilities and just attack the quarterback. With the strength of Seattle’s secondary, the Seahawks have the players to cover receivers in the back end as well.
Seattle kept the Packers in check in their 36-16 win over Green Bay in Week 1. Eddie Lacy was held to 37 yards on 12 carries before leaving with a concussion in the fourth quarter, and the Packers had just 80 yards on the ground. However, the Packers rushing attack is much-improved since then. Over their final eight games (seven regular season games and last week’s playoff game against Dallas), the Packers averaged 137.25 rushing yards per game. That rate would have put Green Bay fourth in the league in rushing if extrapolated over a full season.
“From the first eight games to the second eight games, their rushing stats have flip flopped and that’s a big change in their approach,” Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said.
After watching the Packers rely on Lacy extensively in their win last weekend, I believe Lacy should be the focal point of the offensive game plan in this matchup. Lacy should get more attempts than the first game in the rematch as part of a ball-control game plan designed to alleviate some of the pressure on Rodgers. If Lacy finishes with 25 or more attempts (admittedly this is a very small sample, Green Bay is 3-0 when Lacy receives 20-plus carries in a game this season), the Packers should have a shot.
On the other side, "Beastmode" Marshawn Lynch is priced up as a short first touchdown favourite in every game he plays. Not only are Seattle favourites every week, especially at home, but they are a conservative offense without too much big play potential on the outside and Lynch himself is the focus of the offense. He doesn't represent great value though, 7/2 in places and 5/1 generally
Contrast that with Lacy who we can back at 9/1 first touchdown scorer and should get the carries to make this a really interesting price for all the reasons above. Green Bay may get the ball first (Carolina did against Seattle in the divisional round) and Lacy should be the feature on the first drive. In any case with the combination of the Seattle defense and a fairly workmanlike offense for the home team, we could well get a couple of opportunities to drive for the first touchdown.
10 points Eddie Lacy First touchdown scorer Green Bay @ Seattle 9/1 BetVictor or William Hill
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"They are on a good run, so they are a good thing today" "They are on a bad run, and its getting worse"
Back the team has not lost any of their last eight games? but oppose the team who had not won any of their last eight games?
Actually, a perfectly ordinary mid-table team are likely to run up both of these sequences at least once in a season.
A mid-table team will usually win 36 per cent of their games, draw 28 per cent and lose 36 per cent. In other words, they will avoid defeat in 64 per cent of the games they play. I got out some old Rothmans annuals and flicked through the pages of teams who had finished halfway down their divisions. What I found was that each team I checked did indeed run up at least one sequence of eight or so games without a defeat and another of eight or so games without a victory.
You can be sure that a lot of punters toward the end of each of these good runs were beginning to think that the team had got better, and toward the end of each of these bad runs they were beginning to think that the team had got worse.
In fact, often neither conclusion is true.
Since the start of the Premier League in 1992, the team who won the league failed to win 37 per cent of the games they play. Even Arsenal, when they went unbeaten throughout season 2003-04, failed to win 32 per cent of the games they played. This season (and we might argue that the resources of the top few teams compared to the rest should lead to greater distribution of results top four relative to the rest over the years) Chelsea have failed to win 28% and Manchester City 33% of their 21 games.
In other words, the best teams in England fail to win approximately one out of every three games they play.
As a sequence of good results gets longer, we should progressively upgrade our assessment of the team and as a sequence of bad results gets longer, we should progressively downgrade our assessment of the team but not as dramatically as most people do.
Going back to 1992, fewer than half of teams in the Premier League who won six games in a row won the next game. Similarly, of all the teams who lost six games in a row, fewer than half lost the next game.
All this points to the contrarian approach, seeking value based on price or an angle rather than the momentum of recent results. It is the times that the teams on a strong run lose that the bookmakers love, they are in the vast majority of the weekend's accumulators for starters.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 10th-11th January
Coming Up this weekend
- NFL Play-Offs: Divisional Round week. The play-offs continue this weekend with four games over Saturday and Sunday in the Divisional Round. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the Superbowl sign up here
- Football with the return of the Premier League and a full Football league programme. At the top of a closer Premier League than it was, Chelsea host Newcastle and Manchester City are at Everton
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Kempton (including the Lanzarote Hurdle), Wetherby and Warwick (including the Classic Chase)
- Snooker The 2015 Masters begins at the Alexandra Palace on Sunday
- Tennis, the 2015 season has begun with ATP Brisbane which concludes this weekend, the beginning of the Australasian leg of the tour that culminates in the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne.
- Golf, the season begins with the European Tour in Johannesburg at The South African Open Championship and the USPGA Tour at Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii.
- Cricket, a T20 series begins in Johannesburg (South Africa v West Indies) a one day intenrantional series begins in Christchurch (New Zealand v Sri Lanka) and England begin their World Cup Warm up tour in Canberra
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Neil Channing will be providing write ups and analysis on all the games:
WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014
DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014
SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014
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Free Tip of the Week
This week, to complement Neil's work on the play offs with the NFL Divisional Round this weekend, a look at the final game this weekend (Sunday 9.40pm GMT) when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos hosted the Colts in the season opener, winning 31-24, having led 24-7. Denver are seven point favourites for Sunday's game. Once again, i have tried to look at the teams and their strengths and likely strategies with a view to looking at sub-market value.
The Broncos have the AFC’s highest-scoring offense, averaging 30.1 points per game. They changed their offensive strategy midway through the season though, moving away from the passing game and becoming much more conservative in play-calling, running the ball a lot more with great success. There may be a couple of reasons for this, both related to the great Peyton Manning who he made more mistakes than usual in 2014, throwing 15 interceptions and was and is suffering with injury niggles too. After passing for 34 touchdowns and 323.5 yards per game in Denver's first 11 games, Manning had only five touchdown passes and 233.8 passing yards per game in the Broncos' last five games of the season.
The Colts won the AFC South on the strength of the conference’s third highest scoring offense, but their defense was too bad to overcome, at times. In all five of Indianapolis’ losses, they surrendered at least 30 points. The Colts gave up at least 42 points in their last three defeats.
The key for Denver here will be to avoid a shoot-out which gives Andrew Luck's offense a chance to be competitive. The way to do that will be to play good defense and run the ball controlling time of possession. Denver’s defense was among the best in the regular season. They ranked ninth against the pass and second against the run, allowing the fewest total yards of any AFC defense. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware combined to record 24 sacks in 2015. Indianapolis do not have an effective run game and we will see Chris Harris the top cornerback bracketed with T Y Hilton when Indianapolis have the ball.
So, time to look at a familiar name if you read this column. C J Anderson finished with at least 80 yards rushing in each of his last three games and racked up two three-touchdown games down the stretch. No running back in the NFL had more rushing yards (648) or Touchdowns (8) in the final six weeks of the regular season than Anderson.
The last time we backed him, he had five runs from the one yard line in a touchdown-less game at that point, and we had a frustrating "value loser". In the final regular season game he shared carries with Ronnie Hillman, who was returning from injury in what was a "dead rubber" for the Broncos. Anderson had 13 carries, down from 25-30 in his great run of form. I would expect them to revert to Anderson having over 20 carries in this game.
Looking at the opportunity this time, the Colts secondary has been decent, 12th in the league with two effective cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, but the run defense is comparatively poor. Indianapolis concede 113.4 yards per game on the ground. In the wild card round, even though Cincinnati fell behind early and all but abandoned the run, the Bengals still carried for over 5.2 yards per rush against the Colts. With so much attention paid to Manning and his receivers, Anderson should have a nice game.
So, hopefully, we have a nice confluence of factors here. The match-up favours the Denver running game, and the team's recent strategy has emphasised it compared to other likely touchdown options. With time of possession against an Andrew Luck side crucial, Anderson is going to get plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns.
Although we cannot say it with certainty, its likely that Denver get the ball first too. If they win the toss they will receive and if Indianapolis win the toss, it would be common for the away side to defer and get the ball at the start of the second half. The weather forecast - very cold, blizzards - might also work in favour if the running game compared to receiving touchdowns too
10 points C J Anderson First touchdown scorer Denver Broncos v Indianapolis Colts 8-1 William Hill , 7/1 generally
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"That's a huge momentum changer".
"They have the momentum, they've won eight in a row"
How many times do we hear phrases like that during or before a sporting event? Plenty!
Well, contrary to media narratives and what we hear each week from pundits and commentators, there is a strong contrary view that sports momentum is a myth. Many of the arguments were expounded in a Freakonomics piece in 2011 which quoted an academic paper from several years ago, called "The Hot hand in Basketball: On the misperception of Random seqeunces" (available in all good bookshops) that argued that a “hot streak” is really just a random sequence that we misperceive to be more meaningful than it is.
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. In the example investigated in the paper above in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
It’s easy to mistake that for a pattern, suggesting some kind of meaning or momentum, but it’s really just a pure illustration of randomness itself.
When betting, we may look to recent momentum to help form a strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the mean.
So if we consider that momentum might be a myth, why all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on team or player momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
Anomalies are going to happen. Teams are going to win a lot of games in a row (there are 19 and 20 game streaks ongoing in the NBA this season. In the NFL Dallas won 8 away games in a row in this season) and within games there are going to be fantastic comebacks but in a population of thousands of results over long periods of time these are anomalies.
However the statistical world cannot escape “regression to the mean.” Those streaks have very little bearing on what happens next as a predictor of betting value.
sports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufsports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufsports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufsports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufSign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)
- He has had 8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70
Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.
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From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month
Subscribe here
What else is on Betting Emporium?
College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until the end of this weekend. Stuart is doing write ups and analysis, free to access here
English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in Premier League and Championship, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,288 (as at 8-1-15)
All bets have an ROI +5% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 3rd-4th January
Happy New Year to all "Road to Riches" readers.....
Coming Up this weekend
- NFL Play-Offs: Wild Card week. The play-offs start this weekend with four games over Saturday and Sunday on Wild Card weekend. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the superbowl sign up here
- FA Cup third round weekend with Arsenal v Hull on Sunday afternoon a repeat of last year's final.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Newcastle and Wincanton.
- Darts, the PDC World Championship at Alexandra Palace. The semi finals and final as the event concludes this weekend.
- Cricket, Test matches in Cape Town (South Africa v West Indies) and Wellington (New Zealand v Sri Lanka).
NFL Playoffs and Superbowl (3rd January - February 1st 2015) - full package £40 - sign up here
Neil Channing will be providing write ups and analysis on all the games:
WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014
DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014
SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014
| Playoffs and Superbowl XLIX - Write Ups and analysis | £40 Sign Up Here |
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley
Match by match analysis and write ups of the semis and final.
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PDC World Darts Championship (full package) |
Free Tip of the Week
This week, to complement Neil's work on the start of the play offs with NFL Wild Card weekend, a look at the first of the four play-off games Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers on Saturday evening, this time from the perspective of sub-market value.
The Cardinals (11-5) are the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs after finishing second in the NFC West having lost four of their last six games. Despite one of the league's best defenses, the relative decline in results occurred due to quarterback injuries which have stymied the points scoring potential of the team only scoring 64 points in those last four games. Current quarterback Ryan Lindley has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in the last two games, for 532 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, including three last weekend.
If this is a match up where momentum counts, Carolina have it and could well be a dangerous team in the play-offs. The defense in particular has improved dramatically through the season, returning to its 2013 form. It was ranked 24th in Weeks 1-9, then 5th in Weeks 10-17.
Opposing quarterbacks against the Panthers defense over final 4 regular season games finished: 81-of-145 (55.9%) for 815 yards (5.62 YPA) with only 3 Touchdowns & 5 Interceptions.
At the same time the Carolina offensive line, suspect all year, has been performing better and the offense has been heating up as a result. Against Atlanta last weekend Four Carolina rushers, including the quarterback, gained 40 yards or more running the ball too.
Arizona are likely to struggle to score points. We have the combination of a third choice quarterback and facing an in-form defense. This weights it quite strongly against Arizona scoring the first touchdown in my opinion, and therein lies the opportunity.
Looking at Carolina, they will try to run on Arizona and the once reliable Arizona run defense has allowed 473 rushing yards in the last two weeks. In part they will attempt to establish the run because moving the ball through the air on Arizona is difficult, they have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league in Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie.
So which running back? Well the most likely is Johnathan Stewart with 175 carries, and 806 yards in the regular season. Carolina do have Cam Newton at quarterback though, one of the best "dual threat" quarterbacks in the game with over 100 runs this season, over 500 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. As long as the offensive line protects him well, and defenses look to account for Stewart first on rushing downs, Newton is a threat every game.
The market prices up Stewart and Newton both at 10-1+ for first touchdown scorer for the game, depending where you can get on.
I'm having 10 points each:
Johnathan Stewart first touchdown scorer - at BetVictor at 10-1
Cam Newton - first touchdown scorer at BetVictor or William Hill at 12-1
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Matchbook
Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.
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A New year. Some betting New Year resolutions (well, it makes a change from joining a gym. Again.)
- Sign up to Brodders' tips
Make a Brodders subscription. +£6,535 in 2014 to £10 a point stakes and a 7.65% ROI. Subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month
Subscribe here
- Don’t be results orientated
It is easy to get in the mindset that every winning bet is a good one and every losing bet is a bad one. This is simply not the case. There’ll be many occasions when the opposite applies – some of your best bets will indeed be losing ones. Try and look objectively at a bet after the event, to see if the bet truly was value (win or lose).
- Adaptability
There’ll be many times when you decide upon a bet where you’ll be completely steadfast in your decision, and this is a normally a good place to be, as you’ll be completely confident. However, there will be times when that can be a problem, especially if you come across information that could or even should change your mind. Being adaptable and keeping on top of changing situations will only be a good thing
- Keep Records/ keep better records
There is no single thing that can improve your sports betting more than improving your record keeping. A few minutes every day to write down the bets you made and how they turned out gives so much powerful information. A surprising number of people just guess about how they are doing, and make overly optimistic assumptions and decisions based on those assumptions. It allows you to go back and look at the bets you make that win regularly and those that lose more often than they should. Once you know that you can avoid costly mistakes (cutting out some types of bets and sports entirely if neccesary) and edges that you may have.
- Learn a new statisticThere are standard stats that people know and embrace for every sport – In US Sports for example, which lead the way for depth of stats ERA and batting average in baseball, sacks and QB rating in football, points and assists in basketball. These are the tip of the iceberg. Metric-based analysis is progressing swiftly in the Premier League here for example.
In every one of those examples above, though, those statistics are far from the best way to understand how a team or player is performing, and how they may perform in the future. There are other, far more useful stats that are widely available, easy to understand, and far more powerful as an indicator and predictor. The new year would be a great time to understand one or more new statistics. Pick a new stat, understand it, and figure out if and how it can help you be a better winner. If nothing else, doing this will help you see what the problems are with the widely used stats.I do a fair amount of baseball betting, and my task this off-season is to learn “WAR” (Wins above replacement value for players) and see if it can help me on a daily basis when looking at match ups particularly for pitchers.
What else is on Betting Emporium?
College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart is doing write ups and analysis, free to access here
English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in the FA Cup, free to access here
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£13,292.90 (as at 22-12-14)
All bets have an ROI +5.71% and Horse Racing has an ROI +21.50%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Boxing Day-28th December
Coming Up this weekend
- NFL Week 17. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections £25 Sign Up Here. The final week of the regular season, with the play-off match-ups being decided in the matches on Sunday night.
- The Premier League Christmas schedule sees plenty of betting opportunities with a full slate of games on both Boxing Day and Sunday 28th
- Racing, with no less than eight National Hunt Meetings across the country on Boxing Day headed by the King George meeting at Kempton followed by the Welsh Grand National fixture at Cepstow on Saturday.
- Darts, the PDC World Championship with second round matches at Alexandra Palace resuming on Saturday 27th.
- Cricket, Test matches ongoing over Christmas in Melbourne (Australia v India), Port Elizabeth (South Africa v West Indies) and Christchurch (New Zealand v Sri Lanka).
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley
A Championship preview was published last week and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley are being published during the event, and Nigel has had a good start to the event on Betting Emporium. The full package is £49.99.
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PDC World Darts Championship (full package) |
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10 Kempton)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Matchbook
Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.
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A Quick look at NFL Total Betting
In one of Saturday night's NFL recommendations Neil said "The total here opened 50.5 and it's currently 50. 51 is a massively "key number" in NFL totals, it is twice as likely as 50 so we need to make sure we are the right side of that."
In that game, Eagles at Redskins, the match finished 27-24 for a line of 51 points, and his "overs" bet at 50.5 landed.
This prompted me to have a look at key numbers, and some of the data behind the numbers that Neil uses.
The basics:
Offering lines on NFL totals give the bookmaker a chance to offer another point spread opportunity to collect more vig, as well as give sports bettors another opportunity to beat the house. A betting total is set on the number of points both teams figure to score in one said contest. An average total in the NFL is around 37, in fact about 5% of all NFL games land on this number, making the number 37 a very important number to be around. If you like a game under you will want to try and play it at 37 or 37.5 rather than 36.5, just as if you like a game over you would want to play at 36.5 or 37, rather than 37.5.
The opportunity:
Typically totals are easier to beat than point spreads for a few reasons. First the public is not as interested in totals as betting sides in a game. Second the people that actually do take the time to research betting totals do not break the numbers correctly and do well enough research to consistently win long term. What these means for us astute sports bettors is an even better opportunity to break the houses back while betting the NFL.
The numbers:
There are 10 very common totals in football: 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, and 54.
Almost 40% of all NFL games will land on one of these key numbers. For someone like Neil, assessing games and frequently betting over/under points totals knowing these common totals, and looking at them relative to the spreads on offer, can be the key difference between taking the right or wrong price. On Saturday night, taking 50.5 was crucial.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)
- He has had 8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70
Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.
-
From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month
Subscribe here
What else is on Betting Emporium?
College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart will be doing write ups and analysis, free to access here
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 20th-21st December
Coming Up this weekend
- NFL Week 16. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here. Two weeks remain of the regular season and the play-off teams are emerging in key games.
- The Premier League continues with Liverpool against Arsenal on Sunday. Leaders Chelsea play on Monday night at Stoke. It is also the FIFA Club World Cup this weekend.
- Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Haydock, Ascot (including the Ladbroke handicap hurdle previews below by Neil Channing and the Long Walk hurdle) and Newcastle.
- Darts, the PDC World Championship with second round matches at Alexandra Palace
- Cricket, Test matches ongoing in Brisbane (Australia v India) and Pretoria (South Africa v West Indies)
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley
A Championship preview was published last week and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley are being published during the event which started on Thursday. The full package is £49.99.
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PDC World Darts Championship (full package) |
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot on Saturday - the 3.30pm race.
The Ladbroke at 3.30 at Ascot tomorrow is obviously ridiculously competitive. It does however, have 18-runners right now and providing 16 start the race we'll get 1/4 odds 1234 with all bookies...a rare Christmas present and a big edge to punters.
As with all these big field races you'd expect a decent pace so to narrow it down I'm going to focus on horses that look like staying further than the 2m trip as this could be hard work for any with stamina doubts especially if they get more rain. I like to go for stables in form and up and coming stables, form at Ascot would help but there aren't too many with that so my other main factor will be to concentrate on unexposed improvers...it's hard to run a dozen handicaps and have a enough up your sleeve to win one like this. As in all races ability to handle the ground is also high on my list, although at the moment I'm guessing it'll be nearer to soft than heavy.
I certainly respect Harry Fry the trainer of favourite Activial, but the horse was 12/1 a week ago, it isn't massively experienced and while that is great from a handicap point of view I might prefer it to be a year older.
My two start with Hello George a five year old trained by Phillip Hobbs who is in great form. Stays more than 2m and likes soft ground, this one jumps well and last time it was possibly not helped by running in a race where they took out half the hurdles due to the low sun. Decent price and definitely could be very well handicapped.
My favourite trainer right now is Dan Skelton. Like Harry Fry he is another former Nicholls assistant and they are both going to be the top two yards in the country very soon you'd have to think. He trains Shelford here, a horse that is lightly raced over hurdles, five years old, easily stays 2m4f and likes soft ground. With him staying all day it seems very hard to see this horse finishing out of the frame. The trainer worries a little bit about his jumping, he is a big rather than slick jumper, but surely he'll have worked on that. Just looks like a massively solid bet to me.
I'm having 8 points each-way Hello George at 14/1 1/4 1234 with many firms.
I'm having 14 Points each-way Shelford at 6/1 1/4 1234 with many firms.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Matchbook
Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)
- He has had 8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70
Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.
-
From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month
Subscribe here
I was christmas shopping the other day and found myself in my local Waterstones. I happened to wander past (honest) the gambling section. I found a shelf devoted to horse racing (the sport, not the betting on it), and more than half a rack devoted to poker. I found a few books on slot machines and blackjack. I found books that promised to help me pick winning lottery winners. What i didn't find was more than a couple of sports betting books.
So how does this impact the popularity of sports betting? Consider, by way of contrast, someone who has watched Poker on TV, played in some games with friends and now wants to approach it seriously. He can go to any bookstore in the country and pick up books that will give him the basics and beyond--he'll quickly learn about how to grade his starting hands, pot odds, reading opposing player's "tells", managing his bankroll, and various strategies. He can buy books from the classic staples to new tomes, he can watch live streams of perfect poker being shown each weekend and endless training videos and strategy articles are available. Indeed, his only real problem could be information "overkill" and trying to weed through competing strategic theories.
Where does a sports betting enthusiast go as he searches to improve? First, he'll have to survive the onslaught of the industry and their chatter about "locks", "games of the year", "100,000 star plays" and so forth. Assuming that he doesn't take their advice and bet "everything he owns" on some mythical inside information play, he'll hopefully realise quickly that these aren't the answer. One of the reasons when i started these weekly columns that i wrote some theory pieces was that the neophyte sports gambler soon hits a brick wall, in terms of availability of knowledge, as he tries to learn about the discipline.
This is a bad thing not only for the would-be sports gambler, but for the business as a whole. The scarcity of theoretical information does nothing but underscore the arguments of those who sceptically view the entire world of bookmakers and players. It minimises the challenges and opportunities that sports betting presents, and undermines the appreciation of those bettors who are successful at turning a profit over the long haul. Overall, it helps perpetuate the anti-sports gambling bias inherent in the mainstream media and serves to marginalise a challenging intellectual pursuit.
Perhaps the most frustrating thing about this is that it is the fault of the sports handicapping and information industry. In the effort to turn a quick buck with hype and hot air they ignore the opportunity to educate players on the right way to approach the sports wagering discipline. The fact that the information is not there for the players who do want to learn is a massive failing of the sports information industry. It's also limiting the growth and exposure of sports gambling and thus very counter-productive in the long run.
It's a shame, since there's so much to learn. Consider the volumes that have been written on poker. If so much ink can be devoted to poker, certainly sports betting--with countless more variables--deserves a similarly serious approach. In reality, serious sports betting has more in common with understanding and profiting from the financial markets than anything else. That's why so many people who experience success in the stock market are able to translate it to sports betting, and why some of the best works on sports betting theory are in actuality financial books
What else is on Betting Emporium?
College Football bowl games start on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart will be doing write ups and analysis, free to access here
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
