Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League including first v second, Leicester City v Manchester United. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- NFL Week Twelve. Sign up for week Twelve coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Newbury including the Hennessey Gold Cup (see free tip below),  Bangor-on-dee, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.

- Golf, on the European Tour: Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.

 -Tennis, the Davis Cup Final: Belgium v Great Britain at the Flanders Expo, Ghent, Belgium.

- Formula One, the final race of the 2015 season the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

i-Pools

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Free bet from Neil Channing

The Hennessey Gold Cup (Newbury 3pm)

The Hennessey is a great race to have a bet on. There are 17-runners and with all of them having this as their target for weeks and no surprises that the ground is soft I'm fairly sure we'll get 16+ runners which means at 1/4 1234 we are getting great value on the place part of most each-way bets. If anyone goes 12345 then it's incredible value.

All we need to do then is find something that will stay the extended 3m2f and that won't mind a proper slog in the mud. It also helps if they have a little class.

I've discounted a bunch of these as being either out of form, not good enough, doubtful stayers, not great on the ground or poorly handicapped. Everything over 20/1 was easy enough to fit into one of those categories so I'll focus on the others.

Theatre Guide may not really get home on this soft ground and he isn't well handicapped so he gets a red line through his name. It'll be a long year for The Druid's Nephew if it's 100% for this and the Grand National and Neil Mulholland says it's fresher this year. The drift in it's price is making me think it's not 100% ready here.

Houblon Des Obeaux was a surprise 2nd in this race last year and he'll like the ground and the slog plus his stable is in blinding form. I just don't really fancy betting him each-way after a poor prep run in a race as hot as this. Fingal Bay wouldn't totally surprise me, he'll like the ground and is a real stayer plus he has a good jockey on but I'm not sure it's a great price for one who doesn't always win when you think he might. Smad Place has been really popular but I can't have him at all at these prices. There is a good chance he'll hate the ground and he doesn't really want to go this far.

When the weights went up it was good for If In Doubt as he gets to be ridden by Barry Geraghty. There is no way I can bet him each-way though as he must be quite likely to fall. If he did get round he'd have a good shout though. The weights going up can't really have helped the favourite Saphir Du Rheu and much as I like this horse there is no way I'm taking 4/1 for him to hump nearly twelve stone round here. May not be as battle hardened as some of these.

Bob's Worth strikes me as a ridiculous price. That race he won here just proved he has four legs and a tail. It was over hurdles, the favourite ran poorly and the other fancied one fell while his stablemate Simonsig had been off years. Clearly the former Gold Cup winner was a great horse but to be 6/1 for this I'd really want to know he still is.

I'm left with two and I'm betting them both.

Ned Stark comes into the handicap with Coneygree out and Alan King has said he has strengthened up well and is a better horse this year. He's a young improver getting loads of weight, he's won round here and he likes soft ground. Looks very solid at the prices. Ought to stay but not guaranteed.

 The Young Master has been aimed at this. He's better in with Saphir du Rheu for their potter round Carlisle, he ought to get a soft lead up front, he has a great trainer and he has won over further and won on heavy. The horse was so disappointing at the Festival this year but I'm going to forgive him and I still think he is a great horse.

 I'm having 7 Points each-way Ned Stark at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook (would take 10/1).

 I'm having 8 Points each-way The Young Master at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Hills (happily take 10/1).

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The importance of Turnovers in NFL betting

The other week, as I was watching an NFL team I had backed on the spread lose conceding 4 more turnovers (interceptions, fumbles) than their opponents I remembered that turnovers are a crucial component of understanding betting on the NFL. The Week after, the same team won the turnover battle and won outright away from home as seven point underdogs. Only this week, on one of the Thanksgiving games, the Cowboys were -3 on turnovers and effectively had no shot of beating the Panthers as a result. Later that evening the Packers were -2 on turnovers against the Bears as 8 point favourites, and lost. On the season the 3-8 Cowboys are an incredible -12 on turnovers which, as well as the key injuries, goes a long way to explain why a talented roster is underperforming expectations.

Taking data from 2012-2014 across the NFL season, if a team has just one more turnover than the other team over the course of a game, it will win 69.6% of the time, compared to home teams winning 57.2% of the time. Winning percentage only increases as the turnover differential mounts up with a turnover differential of +3 or more in a game meaning teams win 90.7% of the time over the three year sample.

Some of a team’s turnover differential is due to talent —Aaron Rodgers throwing very few interceptions and JJ Watt strip-sacking the quarterback for example and some is due to luck, because things like this happen. How much is due to luck and how much due to skill is a source of much debate.

This is category in NFL statistics and betting that offers a troublesome combination of relatively low predictability but very high impact. If there’s “a mystery to solve” with a final score that doesn’t make sense based on the numbers you saw in total yardage in the game it’s likely because the superior team in that data had a turnover debacle. It’s arguably the driving randomising force that affects win rates in NFL betting.

Turnovers have befuddled the NFL analytics industry for years. There’s still not a consensus as to how turnovers should be handled. One extreme says that turnovers are so close to being random that you should just treat them that way. Assume regression to the mean is coming for any team that temporarily has an imbalance.The other extreme says that turnover tendencies are far from random, and you should expect “turnover prone” offenses to continue making mistakes while “turnover forcing” defenses will continue to earn high impact takeaways.

One analyst claims that fumbles are 90% random. A model that uses turnovers will accurately describe what has happened already but doesn’t project well into the future. In a similar fashion, the recently defunct Grantland found that turnovers forced by a defense were 98% random. Hence teams that enjoy a large turnover margin are getting lucky and shouldn’t expect this luck to continue

If you’re new to the NFL, pro teams try to limit themselves to 0-1 turnovers per game. Anything at 2 or more is a disappointment, with 3 or more being really bad news. There are so many personnel moves between each season with head coaches and quarterbacks that it’s best to start fresh each year with your assessments. Do start with an assumption that veteran quarterbacks will be more efficient than relative newcomers, unless those newcomers are there mostly to hand off, throw short passes, or run with the ball themselves.

While the ability to handicap turnovers can be argued, it's common knowledge that the value of a turnover is roughly 4 points. Therefore if Team A wins a game 13-9 with a one turnover advantage, you can make a side note that the teams played even on the scoreboard when you back out the turnover edge. This gives you two of many different ways to look at the game in hindsight. 

What I find very valuable is to keep records of how teams do when they lose the turnover battle, paying special attention to when they are able to cover games despite having a turnover disadvantage. That tells me the team may be on the rise and I should look for a way to play that squad in the future, perhaps in ante-post betting for the next season if, as with the Cowboys example above for next season, the trend in turnovers persists for most of a season.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League returns after the International break including Manchester City v Liverpool and Tottenham v West Ham. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- NFL Week Eleven. Sign up for week Eleven coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Ascot, Haydock Park and Huntington. All weather flat at Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton

- Golf, on the European Tour: the World Tour Championship in Dubai and on the USPGA Tour The RSM Classic, in, Sea Island, Georgia.

 -Tennis, the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool matches.

- MotorSport, the Race of Champions from the Olympic Stadium, London.

i-Pools

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Free Tip of the Week

Week 11 of the NFL season bring a potentially great game at the top of the NFC North as the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings host the 6-3 Green Bay Packers (Sunday 9.25pm, Sky Sports 2). The two teams have gone in opposite directions of late, with the Vikings winning five straight games and the Packers losing three in a row after a 6-0 start. The Vikings have gone 8-0 against the spread too after losing their opening game against the 49ers

At the time of writing the Vikings are -1 with a game over/under of 45 points and as usual I will leave opinions on those lines to Neil and focus on player props.

One of the bets I recommended in the NFL ante post article in August was Adrian Peterson- Most rushing yards at 5/1. So far so good. Through nine games in 2015, Peterson is ahead of where he was in 2012, his.2,097 rushing yard, MVP-winning season. Currently Peterson leads all league running backs in attempts (195) and yards (961). Peterson is 227 yards clear of the competition in his hunt for a third rushing title. He is eighth in yards per carry (4.92), tied-2^nd in 20+ yard runs (7) & Tied-5th in Touchdowns (5).

In the last six games Peterson has been the highest volume back in the NFL. His touches over those games are: 16, 27, 22, 22, 31, 29. In that time he has 14 touches in the red-zone, with no other Minnesota running back featured.

A part of the reason why Peterson has been used so heavily is that Vikings’ quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has had a concussion and a bad shoulder which has limited the Vikings passing game. Pass protection has been also been an issue for the Vikings, so play calling has often reverted back to the safest option, Peterson.

Another part of the reason is Peterson is running against defenses stacked against the run about half as often as he did in 2012 (3.3 times per game compared to 6.45 times per game that season), and the Vikings have hit on something with a three-tight end package that has helped pave the way for three of Peterson's longest runs this season (80, 48 and 43 yards). The Vikings manufacture scenarios in which Peterson has a lead blocker (Peterson's preference) with tight end motions and pulls in this package.

On the other side of the ball the Vikings defense leads the league with fewest points allowed and the Packers have had plenty of issues on offense in their three week losing run both running the ball and through the air where they are really missing number one receiver Jordy Nelson. Of course Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are too good to stay in a slump for long, but facing the league’s top defense isn’t going to be an easy task.

With the Packers offense spluttering, their run defense ranked 24^th in the league and the Vikings leading the league in 147 rushing yards per game, with health worries about the quarterback and potentially bad weather too, this is set up for another big Adrian Peterson game.

6 points Adrian Peterson first touchdown scorer 11/2 Skybet

(added Sunday lunchtime): 12 points Adrian Peterson over 105.5 rushing yards 10/11 Bet365, Skybet or William Hill.

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FOBTs and Betting Restrictions

Recent campaigns have highlighted bookmakers which reject some over the counter bets, but have no such restrictions on FOBT gambling.

A recent Radio 5 live investigation, "Banned from Bookies” received wide publicity and a few days later, a group of heavily restricted bettors gamblers handed in a Charter to the Association of British Bookmakers (ABB) head office, with a petition which called on the Chair of the ABB to initiate a public inquiry into bet acceptance.

A central part of the petition was to state that Over the counter betting is required to be the primary activity of the betting shop licence. FOBTs, the betting shop machines, have a maximum payoff of £500 per spin and there was no justification for bookmakers refusing anyone a bet on what should be their primary activity of betting, if the payoff will be up to £500 – the same as on their FOBTs.

The petition went on to highlight that one of the licensing objectives in the 2005 Gambling Act is that gambling should be "fair and open” commenting

“Where is the easy-to-read notice in the betting shop that says: "If we don't like your bet, we won't take it" There isn't one. Regular gamblers continue losing in the hope they might one-day turn into winning gamblers without knowing it is impossible to be a winner, as if they do begin to win their account will be closed or restricted. How can this be "fair and open"”?

Bookmakers say they only want to restrict "professional" gamblers, which is clearly not the case in practice. However  if they suspect bets are from "professionals" then they have the ability to send the money back to the track to reduce the starting price odds. They are in control of the odds, not the punter.

The Gambling Commission has postulated that one day there may be no controls over stakes and prizes on gaming machines such as FOBTs. The petition says "How can this position ever be justified when bookmakers themselves apply limits on horse race gamblers?"

The ABB did not want to respond to 5 Live’s investigation. Paddy Power commented, a spokeswoman made the "commercial decision" excuse for the bookies claiming that it was better to pay £2,000 to 1,000 customers than £2 million to one customer.

Sensible "responsible" gambling involves limiting frequency, stakes and selections. That is what sensible gamblers do. FOBT roulette gambling is irrational as losses are far faster than casino roulette, and it is impossible to win in the long term. Even banned horse-race gamblers are invited back into shops to get deals to play on FOBTs The ABB, despite claiming to be a "responsible" gambling advocate, defends FOBTs and also defends bookmakers banning sensible gamblers, two diametrically opposed and incompatible positions.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League takes an International break, with England playing friendlies in Spain on Friday night and at home to France next Tuesday.

- NFL Week Ten games. Sign up for week Ten coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Cheltenham (including the Paddy Power Gold Cup see free tip below), Uttoxeter and Wetherby, on the flat at Lingfield and Wolverhampton

- Golf, European Tour: BMW Masters in Shanghai and USPGA Tour: OHL Classic in Mexico.

 -Tennis, the Fed Cup World Group Final: Czech Republic v Russia in Prague.

- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos

- Rugby Union, the opening pool games of the European Rugby Champions Cup

i-Pools

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Free Tip of the Week from Neil Channing

Really great to have proper racing back and the race I'll always think of as the Mackeson (Paddy Power Gold Cup Cheltenham 2.25) is one of my favourites of the year. The fact that it's a 20-runner handicap and some firms pay 5 places makes it even better.

 The secret to this race is often to pick an improving unexposed younger horse and I'm happily ruling out all the eight year olds and above. The other thing that I'm thinking about when I look at this race is that there will be loads of early pace from the likes of Boondooma, Next Sensation and the favourite King's Palace and I think that might be a bad thing for the favourite who has tended to try and dominate small fields. I wouldn't back any of those three each-way as the pace could mean they crack at the 2nd-last and they fade away. The Pipe horses didn't run great on day one of the meeting and I think the other two mentioned are big doubts to be staying on up the hill.

 Taking those three and the older horses out and we are left with ten. It's not too hard to get that down to a shorter list.

Splash of Ginge should be Ok if it rains a lot, comes off the pace and could win but he jumps so poorly and for an each-way bet I really want a solid one that will place more than the prices suggest they will.

Shanpallas has way more miles on the clock than some of these and he didn't really finish in this race on soft ground last year when he finished 6th. Could win but not too solid.

Present View likes it here and he finished 3rd in this race when favourite last year but he's hardly been keeping secrets from the handicapper and he's ran poorly this season.

Annacotty has moved stable to Alan King and that's a huge positive. The horse has winning form over course and distance and he likes the ground but it's a long time off and it might be tough to have him at his best...even that could be a bit short of the standard here.

Oscar Rock has all his form on tracks that are totally different to this so I won't be taking a chance with him.

Cocktails at Dawn ran poorly at the Festival last year and has never run well here. I'd like to see that it can do it here before I'd fancy betting it in this one.

Sound Investment carries a chunk of weight and has no form here. Not for me.

Generous Ransom runs well here and is weighted to beat Irish Cavalier on two pieces of form and if he hadn't had run so poorly here last time I'd have surely been on. I'm going to reluctantly pass though.

Art Mauresque is definitely a young improving horse but there are a few reasons why I couldn't bet him here. Firstly he may be a little too inexperienced, secondly I've seen him jump to the right, thirdly he does tend to run near the front and that may make things tough here and fourthly Paul Nicholls stated before his last race that he needed good ground and that rain was a bad thing.

I'm left with one and that's lucky as it's the one I fancied before I started writing anything. Irish Cavalier is trained by Rebecca Curtis who is definitely in form. The horse is young and improving, he's won over the trip, he won well last time, he comes from off the pace and he doesn't mind a bit of cut. I think this is a horse that could easily improve a lot more this year and it seems so solid here.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way at 10/1 Irish Cavalier 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 William Hill, Ladbrokes or BetVictor

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The 2015-16 European Rugby Champions Cup

The 2015-16 European Rugby Champions Cup (ERCC) begins on the weekend of 14-15 November. The final will take place at Lyon's new Grand Stade de Lyon, which is due to open later this year, on 14 May 2016.

Toulon beat Clermont 24-18 in last year’s final at Twickenham, the second time in three years that Europe’s top club rugby tournament had been contested by two French sides, as well as the third year running that Europe’s flagship side hailed from the Top 14.

The Pool draw for this year’s competition is as follows:

POOL ONE: Saracens, Ulster, Toulouse, Oyonnax

POOL TWO: Clermont Auvergne, Ospreys, Exeter, Bordeaux

POOL THREE: Glasgow, Northampton, Racing 92, Scarlets

POOL FOUR: Stade Francais, Munster, Leicester, Treviso

POOL FIVE: Bath, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps

Pool winners and the best three runners up qualify for the quarter-finals, with the four Pool winners with the best records having home advantage for the first of the kockout stage ties.

Looking ahead to this year’s competition, the structural reasons why French clubs do so well in this competition persist. French rugby is structured to give their clubs maximum advantage, often at the expense of the national side. For English clubs the salary cap is due to rise from £4.3m to £5.5 million next season with the allowance of two marquee players, but it is dwarfed by the £8.6m which clubs can spend in France’s Top 14 competition.

In a domestic game already full of top quality imports, the top 14 has had its biggest influx of southern hemisphere talent following the Rugby World Cup. This was underscored with the announcement that All Black fly-half Dan Carter had signed a record £1.3m a season three-year deal with Racing Metro.

For all of the French sides, budgets are almost twice as big as the English Premiership clubs competing in the European Champions’ Cup and it is nowhere near a level playing field. In England while the salary cap is protecting the lower half of the league, it is restricting the top half from competing against the top teams in Europe

Similar problems exist for Irish, Scottish and Welsh sides of which there are five in this year’s ERCC. The Irish Rugby Union part funds its provinces and places restrictions in terms of players that aren’t qualified to play for Ireland, allowing only three foreign players – plus project players [foreign players that could qualify for Ireland in future] in the squads – which leaves them at a disadvantage to the English and French teams.

The Scottish Rugby Union funds Glasgow and Edinburgh and whilst Glasgow in particular (mirroring the national team’s ascent) are more competitive in recent years, any increases in player costs have to come from central funds which could and should be used for the whole of the Scottish game. The same situation exists in Wales.

The approach by the Irish, Scottish and Welsh unions is probably good news for their national sides long term, domestic players will be exposed to top competition sooner than their French counterparts, but it doesn’t help them towards success in the ERCC.

A handful of French club owners are distorting the whole of world rugby. Just taking one club as an example, ERCC holders Toulon, here are just a few of their new players for this year:

Ma’a Nonu, world cup winner

Samu Manoa, US national captain from Northampton

Quade Cooper, World cup finalist squad member

James O’Connor, 44 Australian caps

Duane Vermeulen, first choice South Africa number 8

And, though currently missing through injury, Paul O’Connell from Munster and Ireland. In addition to these players Toulon can call last season's overseas players such as Matt Giteau, Bryan Habana and Drew Mitchell through the competition and have strength in depth that no non-French side can muster with their constraints.

The impact of these structural issues is seen in the betting market for the event, where 5 of the top 8 at the head of the market are French sides, it is 9-1 bar last year’s finalists Toulon and Clermont and the top non French and English side quoted in the betting is Leinster at 20-1+.

Clermont are 3-1 favourites to win this year's tournament, helped by having a noticeably easier pool than Toulon who are quoted as 4-1 second favourites with Skybet. At BetVictor amongst other outlets you can back Toulon at 7-2 each way getting half odds top two. This strikes me as very attractive given their massive squad strength and the inherent advantages they have relative to their competition from sides in the Four home unions.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League games include Arsenal v Tottenham on Sunday. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  will be published. Read it here

- NFL Week Nine games. Sign up for week Nine coverage here

- Racing, on the flat at Doncaster and Chelmsford City, over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton

- Golf, WGC - HSBC Champions in Shanghai.

 -Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Masters in Paris and WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai, China

- Rugby League, the second test between England and New Zealand on Saturday

i-Pools

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Free Tips of the Week

The Carolina Panthers (7-0) are the NFC’s final undefeated team, and after Monday night’s overtime victory they are home underdogs against the Green Bay Packers (6-1) at 6pm live on SkySports on sunday.

Green Bay had its first loss of the season last weekend when Denver held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards and no touchdowns in the 29-10 loss. Facing the league’s best defense, the former MVP came up with the third-worst passing yardage total of his career and failed to throw a touchdown for just the 10th time in 110 starts.

For this game the Packers have the edge in the receiving corps and Carolina the backfield. Green Bay’s James Jones has 22 receptions for 426 yards and six scores, with Randall Cobb has 36 more catches for 377 yards and four scores in the league’s 10th highest-scoring offense. This is another tough match-up for Rodgers though. Carolina still owns one of the NFL’s more dominant defenses. The Panthers are ninth in total defense, allowing 342.3 total yards per game, and second against the pass with 12 interceptions on the year.

Meanwhile the Panthers passing offense is 21st in the league with a group of receivers that are below average in league-wide terms with the exception of Tight End Greg Olsen. Carolina's run this season to date is mostly about defense, schedule, and quarterback Cam Newton’s ability to carry the offense.

The Panthers have played to their strengths on the ground and lead the NFL with 144 rushing yards per game and eight total touchdowns, led by veteran Jonathan Stewart’s 505 yards and three scores and Newton’s 286 yards and four rushing touchdowns.

Stewart is on form (285 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games, each time with over 20 carries a game) against an opponent which has had difficulty stopping the run throughout the season, and Carolina’s strategy will be to exploit this weakness and keep Rodgers off the field for long stretches. The Packers are tied for 25th in the NFL with 124.4 rushing yards allowed per game, and opposing rushers are gaining 4.7 yards per carry.

To back up my intuitive thoughts that Carolina should be running a lot here, i looked at red zone targets (who does Newton give it to within 20 yards of the goal-line) for the team so far this season. A team like Carolina is essentially conservative because it lacks big play ability, so the vast majority of touchdown scoring is going to come from snaps within the red zone rather than long passing plays. What i found was as follows:

Red zone Targets (passing game, by game): Olsen (1, 5, 2, 0, 0, 1), Ginn (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Funchess (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0), Brown (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1)

Red zone Carries (running game, by game): Stewart (1, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4), Newton (2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4), Tolbert (1, 4, 2, 0, 2, 0)

So in the last six games Carolina have had 57 snaps within 20 yards of the goal-line. 41 of the 57 have seen rushes called. Of those 41, 32 have gone to Stewart and Newton.

I do like Stewart in the first touchdown market. We're hoping to get the ball first, and if not we have one of the better defenses in the league to get us get the ball back if we are kicking off

6 points Jonathan Stewart First touchdown scorer 8-1 Skybet, Coral or William Hill

I also like Newton, with 64 rushes this season, in the anytime Touchdown market

10 points Cam Newton anytime touchdown scorer 7/4 William Hill

 

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The NFL and Gambling

The NFL has long opposed sports betting and has more recently declined to invest in, or officially embrace, the daily fantasy sports websites that have caught on with fans in the United States. Fantasy sports have won millions of players and stoked controversy for administratord and legislators.

However in this country the NFL has signed a three-year deal that allows one of the major daily fantasy sports companies, DraftKings ( which has made a marketing push ahead of its plans to open for business in Britain in the near future ), to post advertisements at Wembley Stadium with a caveat. It can post its logo with each replay shown in the second quarter on the big screens at Wembley, but not on signage near the field, so television viewers in the United States cannot see them. Likewise, the NFL required that the sports betting machines at Wembley be turned off during a game. Meanwhile fans happily place bets from their seats on mobile phones or at betting shops near the stadium.

The NFL, whose players and games form the content for Fantasy's virtual contests, has long walked a delicate line, at once trying to tap fantasy fans’ rabid appetite for football while trying to keep an arm’s length between itself and this unregulated industry, which is increasingly under scrutiny. Daily fantasy sports games are not considered gambling in the United States because of an exemption to a federal law. The exemption was pushed for by the NFL, which opposes gambling out of the fear that it could compromise real games. So the league is left with a seemingly contradictory posture that becomes particularly glaring as it tries to expand beyond the United States where sports betting is permitted.

Daily fantasy’s popularity has flourished as millions of people flock to sites in which users pay an entrance fee, draw up their own “roster” of players for virtual contests, and win cash based on the actual performances of athletes on the field. In the United States, federal and state agencies have begun inquiries into the practices of daily fantasy websites, which are valued at more than $2 billion. The agencies want to know if players have been duped by aggressive solicitation or the use of insider information by employees of the sites. At the same time, lawmakers and some states see a resemblance to Internet gambling and are pushing to prohibit the games or regulate them.

The question of whether daily fantasy sports is gambling is settled in Britain: DraftKings had to get a gaming license to operate, a regulatory necessity that critics of the industry have seized upon.

“By maintaining a gambling license in the U.K., DraftKings is directly admitting the obvious: Daily fantasy sports is gambling,” said Representative Frank Pallone Jr., Democrat of New Jersey, who has asked Congress to explore the relationship between fantasy sports and gambling. “The NFL’s acceptance of sports betting — as long as it isn’t in the U.S. — is yet another example of the league engaging blatant hypocrisy by supporting and investing in fantasy sports betting while opposing sports betting at casinos and the tracks.”

Jeffrey Haas, who is spearheading DraftKings’ expansion in Britain said that in the long term he hoped to persuade about 10 percent of the 8.5 million British NFL fans who play season-long fantasy football to try the daily fantasy version.

"Consumers have a lot more choice here than they do in the U.S. and it’s going to be a challenge for us to resonate with sports bettors,” he said. “We need to go through an education process because our category does not exist in any substantial way in the UK yet.”

In the United States, a 2006 federal law aimed at eliminating online gambling exempted fantasy sports after lobbying from the NFL and other sports leagues convinced legislators that the games did not constitute gambling, but required skill and were vital to driving up interest in their games.

In fact, a previous NFL commissioner, Paul Tagliabue, and the current one, Roger Goodell, lobbied lawmakers for the exemption.

“We’re not in favour of legalising sports gambling,” Mr. Goodell said recently. “We think that’s a mistake for sports. The integrity of the game is the most important thing. We want to make sure that our game is above any kind of influence. We do not want to participate in that. That’s something we’ve had a longstanding position — we continue to have that.” Mr. Goodell has been more muted on the NFL’s position on daily fantasy sports, but he seemed to join Robert Manfred, the commissioner of Major League Baseball, and Adam Silver, the commissioner of the N.B.A., in welcoming regulation of the industry.

While nearly every NFL team has a sponsorship deal with DraftKings or FanDuel and two powerful NFL owners — Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys and Robert Kraft of the New England Patriots — have equity stakes in the companies, the league has kept a distance from daily fantasy football operators in America even as Major League Baseball and other leagues have invested in them.

“Whether it’s gambling or not, it’s a decision made by state authorities, attorneys general — they’ve made that determination,” Mr. Goodell said. “We do understand our fans are interested in playing daily fantasy. We just want to protect our fans and make sure there’s proper consumer protection in there for them, and we’ve encouraged that and we think it’s important that our fans have that protection.”

In Britain, fans take such protections for granted because sports betting is heavily regulated.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League games include Chelsea v Liverpool. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has just been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup, The final between New Zealand and Australia on Saturday at Twickenham, written up here

- NFL Week Eight games. Sign up for week Seven coverage here

- Racing, Breeders Cup weekend at Keeneland, Kentucky (see below, free tips) on the flat at Newmarket and Wolverhampton, over the jumps at Ayr, Ascot and Wetherby

- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City

 - Golf, European Tour: Turkish Airlines Open in Antalya, Turkey and on the USPGA Tour: the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

 -Tennis, ATP Valencia Open 500 and the ATP Swiss Indoors in Basel.

- Cricket, the third Test between Pakistan and England in Sharjah begins on Sunday

i-Pools

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Free Tips of the Week (Neil Channing)

One of the best things about the Breeders Cup is that the firms go 1/4 123 on all races even though they are stakes races and many are suited to 1/5th 123. It would be rude to not disappoint them and take advantage and there are basically two bets I like where I think we get really good value on the place while having a reasonable win bet.

 The Juvenile Fillies takes place at 4.05pm our time and it's pretty much a four horse race. The favourite Songbird could easily win and she ought to be close to evens but I'm going to play each-way against her. The first of the two I considered but ruled out were Tap to It, a filly who got a bad ride last time versus Rachel's Valentina and who tempted me at a good price here for a 2nd bet in the race. I decided to keep it simple but it was close. The one I ruled out more easily was Nickname who may take on the favourite for the lead. I hope these two might set it up for a closer, I like my each-way bets to be closers rather than front-runners generally as the ones that blast out can fade very quickly once they lose the lead. The only downside at this track is we are faced with a sharp track and a short run-in. I'm going to bet the bigger-priced of the big two here and take Rachel's Valentina who just seems solid to at least get a place.

 I'm sticking with the females by looking also at the Fillies and Mare's Turf (6.10pm our time). This race has a short-priced and admirable favourite in Legatissimo ridden by Ryan Moore. again I wouldn't be surprised if she won but I'm again calling this a not very deep field, I think only three or four can win. Secret Gesture has done the whole travelling thing and has a great trainer but she may not quite be up to this class. Queen's Jewel was a short-priced favourite for the French Oaks and if Freddy Head has sorted some of the issues she's had this year she'd be a great bet here but there are lots of question marks and that means she isn't a solid each-way bet. Stephanie's Kitten is knocking on a bit and although she has decent form I'd guess she will be slightly outclassed here. Dacita has run and won just one race, it wasn't at this track, over this trip or in this class...I couldn't bet her each-way.

 The one for me is Miss France. The 1000 Guineas winner from 2014 is trained by the master Andre Fabre. She was nowhere near right before the Prix Daniel Wildenstein and there was talk of her being prepared for this. She comes here fresh at the end of what has been a long season for some of these fillies and I think she is just plain solid.

Juvenile Fillies 4.05pm: I'm having 6 points each-way Rachel's Valentina at 4/1 or bigger 1/4 123.

Fillies and Mare's Turf 6.10pm: I'm having 8 points each-way Miss France at 7/1 or bigger 1/4 123

 

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The racing industry bites back

Bookmakers who do not pay levy on their digital operations will be barred from taking out new sponsorship deals on most races and festivals under  new rules to be introduced by British racing.

Jockey Club Racecourses (JRC) and Arena Racing Company (ARC) , which operate half of the racecourses in Britain and almost 60 per cent of fixtures, will not enter new commercial agreements with firms who do not pay the levy or an agreed equivalent on their digital business. Existing deals will be honoured but not renewed. There will be significant negatives for firms that still refuse to contribute, including a ban on new sponsorships at any course run by JCR or ARC.

The tracks in the JCR portfolio includes most of the sport’s most famous venues, such as Cheltenham, Aintree and Epsom. ARC, meanwhile, operates racecourses with more than a third of the racing programme, including racecourses include three of the country’s all-weather tracks.

All racing turnover on offshore internet sites is beyond the reach of the statutory Levy system, which has returned money to the sport from high-street betting shops for half a century. As more betting turnover moves online, the BHA estimates that the sport is currently losing £30m annually as a result of the "haemorrhaging" of levy income, a figure that can be expected to increase in future years.

Simultaneously the BHA, in conjunction with the Racecourse Association and Horsemen's Group, has announced the creation of the designation 'authorised betting partners' for bookmakers who "have a fair and mutually sustainable funding relationship with the sport", a press release said.

Bookmakers who enter into what is deemed a fair and mutually sustainable relationship will receive the official designation 'Authorised Betting Partner' and in time it is hoped this will be visible via a Kitemark in publications.

They will also be privy to a full package of benefits which as well as the right to sponsor could include the likes of racecourse data, wifi, preferential rates for digital streaming and perhaps importantly, the ability to reposition fixtures. The new designation will be introduced on January 1.

Three firms have already attained partner status - 32Red, bet365 and Betfair – as they pay the levy voluntarily on their digital businesses or in Betfair's case have a commercial deal in place.

However, Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill, despite having paid an additional voluntary contribution of £4.5 million between them over the last year, will have to make further commitments to become authorised partners but the sums they pay are well short of the 10.75% paid via Levy on their onshore cash business.

The policy announcement said the levy could fall to a forecasted £53 million by 2017-18, from more than £105 million in 2004-05, if no action is taken.

BHA chief executive Nick Rust said: "British racing offers world-class sport, gives enjoyment to millions of people a year, employs over 85,000 people and contributes £3.4 billion a year to the economy.

"But we are underfunded and loopholes in the horserace betting levy system, allowing the majority of betting operators to make no contribution from profits made on British racing through their digital businesses, continue to play a large part in that."

The large independent racecourses that are not under the Jockey Club or ARC's umbrella which include York, Goodwood, Ascot and Newbury also issued a statement supporting a "collaborative and future-proofed approach to racing's relationship with the betting industry aimed at delivering an appropriate merit-based return for racing."

It went on: "The racecourses concerned remain committed to working with others in racing, betting and Government to find a long term, sustainable and fair system for funding the sport. The Large Independents within the Racecourse Association are open to exploring how commercial relationships with bookmakers might be developed going forwards, including with preferred partner arrangements, and look forward to those discussions."

 

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

Brodders football analysis is flying this month winning over £1500 (£10 pt) & ROI +17.1%

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section