Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 15th-16th November
Coming Up this weekend
- It is NFL Week 11. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here
- The Premier League is on an International break with Euro 2016 qualifiers taking place. England play Slovenia in Euro 2016 qualifying at Wembley on Saturday evening
- Racing, the National Hunt season is in full swing, with Saturday meeting's at Cheltenham featuring the Paddy Power Chase, Uttoxeter and Wetherby
- In Golf the USPGA Tour is in Mexico for the OHL Classic and the European Tour in Turkey for the Turkish Airlines Open
- In Tennis the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals conclude at the O2 Arena, London
- In Rugby Union the Autumn Internationals continue with England hosting South Africa, Scotland against New Zealand and Wales against Fiji
- The Grand Slam of Darts concludes in Wolverhampton.
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at a player prop in tomorrow night's NFL action
The San Francisco 49ers travel to New York this weekend with a 5-4 record knowing they are in a real dog-fight for an NFC play off spot, to play a Giants team out of contention for the play offs
The Giants are allowing an NFL-worst 144.7 rush yards per game--their highest since 1980 (the year before they drafted the great linebacker Lawrence Taylor).
Over the last 4 games, following the loss of key run defender linebacker Jon Beason to injured reserve, the Giants Run "D" has been gutted for 680 yards & 6 TDs on 115 carries (5.91 Yards per carry) by opposing Running backs. This poor performance was highlighed in the fgame at Seattle last weekend where Marshawn Lynch ran all over them.
Afterwards one commentator said "I still can't think of a game where more guys made "business decisions" than the Giants vs. Marshawn", meaning Giants players not tackling, not playing at 100% or for their coach, giving up on the season etc.
The 49ers have Frank Gore, one of the most punishing and durable backs in the NFL, behind one of the best offensive lines. It has to make sense that Gore is going to have a big night, and the offense will be confident of punching the ball in via the run in any red zone possessions
The 49ers returned to their run-game roots in last week's overtime upset of New Orleans, finishing with a 32:32 run-pass ratio and feeding Gore 23 carries, his second highest total of the season. Gore played 73% of San Francisco's offensive snaps and piled up 84 yards with a touchdown on 24 touches
Ladbrokes and Coral offer us 8/1 Gore to be first touchdown scorer for this game (which starts 6pm UK time Sunday evening). Coupled with him is back up Carlos Hyde. Gore is beginning to hand over some workload to rookie Hyde, who is going to be a star when he has some experience. He has rushed for three touchdowns this season and is a useful saver here, 12-1 with Ladbrokes, should he be the man in the backfield on the key drive.
12 points Frank Gore first touchdown scorer 8-1 Ladbrokes or Coral
4 points Carlos Hyde first touchdown scorer 12-1 Ladbrokes
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Please note:
-Upon reviewing the terms and conditions for account users at Betway we have today removed them from our website and do not recommend them to our users
- Also we have removed Winner from our website as our experience, & that of our users, shows they are not really interested in laying any proper bets
If you have any questions or concerns about these changes, please contact support@bettingemporium.com
We often hear about betting systems that are hot. “This system has been 9-1 since last week”
Does this mean anything? What if a system is in profit over 100 games? Is this likely to be statistically significant? And what does that phrase mean, anyway?
A long long time ago i managed investment portfolios for 15 years and financial traders often talk about last year’s returns – or "statistically significant" results over the past three or five years. Investors review long-term stock and fund performance but the industry markets over a far shorter timeframe perspective, and often which may not be statistically significant.
It can often be the same in sports betting, and of course many sports and betting on them lends itself to statistical analysis in many ways.
What does “Statistical Significance” Mean?
To the layman, “significant” means important. To statisticians however, “significant” means “probably true.” If something is “statistically significant” at the 95% level (think back to normal distributions and bell curves!), it means that there is a 95% probability that a hypothesis is true.
Applications to Sports Betting
How can we use this? Statistics can help us determine if an approach is likely to be profitable. They can also give us some guidelines on how long we might stick with a system.
Depending on the “juice” we pay, we need to win around 51% to 52.5% of our bets. Let’s say we want to test how viable a system is at the 55% winning percentage level.
Proving Statistical Significance
Let’s do that with some thoughts on imaginary sports betting systems.
- A system is producing better than 57% over a million games. We’d agree that was pretty good, and statistically significant.
- What if, instead of a million games, this 57% was based on 100,000 games? Same thing: good results and statistically significant.
- What does maths tell us? It says that if a system is producing a better than 57% winning percentage, the cut-off is around 2,000 bets to prove statistical significance (that the results will beat the 55% winning percentage we chose above).
That is, if a system produces a 57% winning percentage over 2,000 games, mathematicians say that there is a 95% chance that the results are true (results will be better than 55% in the long-run). Please see the graph below. Below 2,000 games, the results are good, but statisticians wouldn’t say that results are “significant” enough.
Graph: Statistical Significance (95% Level) — 55% Winning Percentage
Winning Percentage to prove “Statistical Significance” versus Sample Size
- Some mathematicians label results as “mildly” significant or “highly” statistically significant.
- From the graph we can see that at a sample size of 20, you would need to hit around 80% to prove statistical significance. If a decent system is connecting at 67%, it doesn’t mean that it’s “no good.” It just means that there is too much randomness in the small sample size and that the system should be tested over more bets (a longer time period or larger sample size).
- At the 200 bet sample size, you would need a winning percentage in the low 60% range to prove statistical significance.
- Over time, we know that various systems and approaches will have ups and downs. A sample size as small as 50-100 can start to tell us a story (10-20 is too small a sample size, unless results are extraordinary) – but 200-500 is even better.
What's on Betting Emporium?
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here . Following Brodders' football bets since January 2014 and betting £10 a point you would now have £4069 profit.
English Non League Football - Alan looks at games in the Conference National, North and South, free to access here
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated this week as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 a point would be winning £10,878 with +5.58% ROI across all sports (as at 12/11/14)
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 8th-9th November
Coming Up this weekend
- It is NFL Week 10. This includes the final 2014 Wembley game, Dallas Cowboys v Jacksonville Jaguars. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here
- The Premier League continues with Liverpool v Chelsea on Saturday lunchtime, and its the first round of the FA Cup this weekend
- The Brazilian Grand Prix in Sao Paolo, the penultimate race of the season. Lewis Hamilton has won the last five races in a row
- Racing includes the last big meeting of the flat season at Doncaster and national hunt fixtures at Sandown, Wincanton and Kelso
- In Golf the WGC- HSBC Champions at the Sheshan International GC in Shanghai.
- In Tennis the ATP Tour Finals in London
- In Rugby Union the Autumn Internationals begin with all the six nations counties in action including England v the All Blacks, Ireland v South Africa and Wales v Australia
- The Grand Slam of Darts starts in Wolverhampton.
- In Snooker the Champion of Champions tournament at the Ricoh Arena concludes
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers.
Tomorrow, at Twickenham, England play the All Blacks in a game that starts the Autumn international rugby season and marks a year until the 2015 Rugby World Cup, and is England’s last game against the All Blacks until the competition.
England face a tough task at the weekend, they lost 3-0 to the All Blacks away in the summer, and go into the match with over 10 players out injured. Alex Corbisiero, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling, Manu Tuilagi (the one player the All Blacks really respect as an English attacking force) Luther Burrell, Mako Vunipola, Tom Johnson and Tom Croft are all out. English rugby has strength in depth, but you would be hard pushed not to describe 7 or 8 of the above as first choice, and six played when England won the comparable fixture two years ago
One of the consequences of these injuries is that there are 437 caps in England's match-day 23 for Twickenham. There are 1,029 caps in New Zealand's match-day 23.
The All Blacks had another successful season and come to the game “match ready”, which is not always the case for Northern Hemisphere tours where fatigue can be a factor at the end of the Southern Hemisphere season. This time they broke their journey beating the USA 74-6 in Chicago. The cohesiveness that comes from a series of Internationals during our summer/autumn can prove vital against an England team playing its first test in four months with a very altered line-up.
Since Steve Hansen took over, the All Blacks have lost just two of 38 Test matches. They are the best side in the world, playing against a side patched together and playing from scratch
I was surprised to see New Zealand only -7 on the handicap (10/11 generally). This is a team that not only has become used to winning the tight matches but if it is on top it piles on scores. Bet365 offer 17/10 New Zealand to win by more than 13 points too
The New Zealand team will have to face down the English side’s strength, a strong pack of forwards and wear down the aspect of England's game that is most World Cup ready, its defence under the tutelage of rugby league legend Andy Farrell which is organised and hits hard. It is particularly effective in the narrow channels so the most likely tactic for the All Blacks, which is their style anyway, is to go wide and stretch the play
In Israel Dagg, Conrad Smith, Sonny Bill Williams and especially the fantastic winger Julian Savea, New Zealand have match-winners.
It is Savea that I am particularly interested in here. He has 29 tries in 30 tests, 8 in 4 games against England, 4 in this summer's Southern Hemisphere Rgby Championship and warmed up with two against the US last weekend. A great finisher the match up here appeals for a couple of reasons
- Savea is up against debutant winger Semesa Rokoduguni. Bath's Rokoduguni,a former Scots Dragoon tank driver, is the form English wing, quick and defensively sound but its a tough task one on one with Savea, if he is presented the ball in space
- England's backs line up is simply patchwork. Starting at inside centre is Kyle Eastmond alongside Brad Barritt. Barritt is a unit, will tackle all day but Eastmond's strengths are different. 5 foot 7 and under 13 stone he has the challenge of stopping the returning Sonny Bill Williams (6 foot 4 and 18 stone) from crossing the gain line and creating space.When New Zealand beat England 36-13 in Hamilton in the third test in June Eastmond was dragged off at half-time, bluntly described as “off the pace” defensively by Farrell. Here he is again, injuries forcing England's hand to give him the challenge again
So, the first try-scorer market, and Savea is available at 7-1 in a number of places. I have him as no more than a 5-1 chance here for a team that will create far more than its opponent, with mismatches in midfield to benefit from
10 points Julian Savea first try-scorer England v New Zealand 7/1 available at William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
In the letters column of an edition of the Racing Post last week was a letter from a punter. A reasonably typical letter these days and it soon went viral on social media.
A gentleman had half an hour to kill, it was raining, and he walked into a London betting shop.
He had a 4-1 winner and, in time honoured fashion, fancied the spin up. Walking past the shop habituees punting £50-100 a time on roulette FOBT's, he attempted to have £30 each way on a 28-1 shot in a midweek handicap. Over the course of the next few minutes he witnessed frantic conversations behind the counter, phone calls to head office and furrowed brows before his bet was accepted, but only in part. The horse placed.
Trying his luck somewhat, it has to be said, he then tried to use the proceeds for a £200 double on two of that evening's Euro2016 qualifiers. He was offered £100 and was told by the cashier that it was felt he was likely to be an unprofitable customer (for them), hence the restriction. Our plucky punter then writes to the Racing Post
Everywhere you look (well, everywhere i look) there are articles on how tough life has become for punters, how the industry has changed, and the typical reasons put forward are as follows:
- Firms have given up trading markets and now make sure they manage and control accounts strictly and ruthlessly. It seems virtually impossible to maintain an account with any firm if you win consistently on any scale, or even just beating the prices/SP over a short space of time.
- Traders now justify their position in the company by monitoring, checking IP addresses for matched accounts, speaking to other layers to check the credentials of punters, and immediately factoring customers. The firms where you can still get a win bet offer prices that are very uncompetitive and a long way beneath the exchange price.
- The introduction of the UK Point of Consumption tax and more regulation over licensing has made life particularly difficult for punters and bookmakers alike. Pinnacle's UK Market exit is hopefully temporarily bad news for those who rely on betting for a living. Pinnacle bet to their traders honed opinions rather than being dictated to by every tick movement on the exchanges, and actively welcoming good judges to have accounts (and arbers for that matter). They offered very low margin betting into liquid markets and their absence is of course a blow to those often shut down by the bigger, more established bookmakers in the UK.
- There is a general loss of confidence in horse racing as a product within the bookmaking industry. Early morning markets are small and trading has taken second place to accountancy
- Bookmakers, who for many years tolerated and managed some winners on their books as a mark or a guide, are seen by some as just arcades, making massive profits from risk free games and no longer needing the expensive business of trading complex events.
- The complete change of business plan in the past decade has made life very tough for the shrewd punter.. Some have become more innovative in how they "get on", and try to get past the barrier to betting that is now in place across the industry, perhaps by employing a small army of helpers to get bets on. Indeed one up-and-coming bookmaking firm based in the South-East recently tried to recruit such people, as they bid to get with the right horses at the right prices in the early lists.
- Clearly while the online revolution opened up a huge world of opportunities for punters, it has also made their business extremely easy to track and restrict. It has become a game of survival of the fittest.
At the risk of being inundated, I thought would throw the floor open to you, the reader. Let me know your experiences of the difficulties in the industry these days and what you are doing to combat it. E-mail me on Rich.Prew@btinternet.com and i will publish a selection of responses, anonymously if you would prefer.
What's on Betting Emporium?
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here . After 5 out of 6 winners for Brodders in the Champions League in midweek followed up by 5 out of 6 in Thursday night's Europa League action, placing all the selections at £10 a point since inception in February 2013 you would be +£2792
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - - Alan looks at games in this weekend's FA Cup 1st Round, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 1st-2nd November
Coming Up this weekend
- It is NFL Week 9. After his Thursday night NFL winner, for all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here
- The Premier League continues with the Manchester Derby on Sunday lunchtime a feature. As well as his usual weekly selections, this week Stuart Doyle has written some new Premier league Ante-post tips here
- The US Grand Prix in Austin, Texas this weekend. The third last race of the season with the drivers championship being fought over by the two Mercedes drivers
- Racing includes the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita (see below for Neil Channing's thoughts) and in the UK, Newmarket on the flat and Ascot, Wetherby and Ayr over jumps
- In Golf the European tour heads to China for the BMW Masters.
- In Tennis the ATP BNP Paribas Masters, Paris and the WTA Qatar Airways Tournament of Champions, Sofia conclude
- In Rugby Union the southern hemisphere sides are beginning their autumn tours and the Barbarians play Australia on Saturday afternoon
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at one of tonight's Breeders Cup Races:
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
The terms “sharp” and “square” are two of the most commonly used words in a bettor’s vocabulary particularly in the US. Pros versus the Public is another way of expressing it. The underlying assumption, based on the very definition of the two words, is that a sharp opinion is more accurate than a square opinion. In other words, the sharp side (or number) is considered to be more successful against the spread than the square side. Many bettors attempt to identify sharp versus square sides and these days some books will identify these for you as part of their social media marketing exercises.
However one way for a novice bettor to help determine sharp versus square is to analyse line movements and bet percentages. In general, a bookmaker wants to receive roughly the same amount of action on both sides of a game. Thus, when significant amounts of money are wagered on a particular side, the line will tend to move in that direction. In many cases, however, the line will remain stagnant or even sometimes move in the opposite direction. When the majority of bets that are coming in are heavily weighted towards a particular side, the line can still move against that action in a phenomenon known as reverse line movement. This counter intuitive movement defies supply and demand but occurs because of a few factors:
1. The money coming in on the minority (lesser bet) is coming from bettors whose opinions the bookmaker respects (i.e. sharp money)
2. The book itself holds a contrarian view in favor of the minority side. That is, despite the large amount of money being bet on team A, the book still feels confident that team B has a higher probability of winning, thus welcomes even more action on team A to create a position.
Opposite line movement appears to contradict basic economic principles, which state that as the demand for a product increases, so should its price. However, bear in mind; betting is not a truly efficient market because every amount of money bet isn’t created equally. If the bookmaker has good reason to believe that the general consensus is incorrect, he or she will gladly challenge anyone willing to jump on the bandwagon. In short, whether you want to deem the minority as sharp or not, savvy bettors like Neil are aware of opposite line movements and how to identify them.
The general theme in NFL betting, held over many years, is that Squares bet favourites and overs, and high profile teams like the Cowboys, 49ers tend to attract Public money too. Yet there has been an interesting trend this year. Neil explained in this extract from Monday night's column
"Sunday night's result saw big TV games go 19-4 to the OVER this year. The professional syndicates keep betting UNDER and the smaller, public bettors are all getting the lot. In general the bookies are getting killed as the higher volume of money is for the OVER. Tonight's game opened 50 and the professional groups have bet it down to 48.5. In the last 11 games between these two sides the total has gone UNDER 8 times"
Looking behind the numbers in these markets, and comparing them to likely gameflow, can pay off. Monday night's game went Under.. Thursday night's game, with a points total spread bid up by this year's experiences, went under too. As Neil identified "Although the primetime games are now 19-5 to the OVER this year the market has started to compensate and we are getting to play UNDER an inflated total"
Being ahead of the market, and knowing which side is sharp, pays off.
What's on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan looks at Non-League games across Conference National, North and South, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 25th-26th October
Coming Up this weekend
- It is nearly the half way stage of the regular NFL Season, and Week 8 includes the second Wembley game of the year with the Atlanta Falcons versus the Detroit Lions. For Neil's Sunday selections:
|
Regular Season Package (up to Dec 28th) |
|
|
Week 8 Regular Season Write Up |
- The Premier League continues with a highlight Manchester United v Chelsea tomorrow
- Racing includes flat meetings at Doncaster and Newbury and the first jumps meeting of the season at Aintree
- In Golf the European tour heads to Australia for the Perth International and on the USPGA the McGladery Classic in Georgia.
- In Tennis the final stages of the BNP Paribas WTA Finals , Singapore and ATP Swiss Indoors in Basel, Switzerland
- In Rugby Union the second round of European Champions Pool matches
- In Baseball, games 4 and 5 of the 2014 World Series between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, with the Royals 2-1 up after 3 games
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today its a welcome to Betting Emporium to Jeff "Jaffa Cake" Kimber a long time NBA Bettor and writer, who previews the 2014-15 NBA season that starts imminently....
"The most anticipated NBA season in years starts on Tuesday with more questions than answers about almost all the main contenders.
All the buzz has been around the Cleveland Cavaliers, who in the off season have gone from 66/1 no hopers to 7/2 favourites thanks to the return home of the best player in the game LeBron James.
James and the Miami Heat made it to the NBA Finals, having won the Eastern Conference, in each of the four seasons he spent with his talents in South Beach, and the reaction to his decision to return to his first club has seen the Cavs’ price tumble as the market expects that run to continue.
The supporting cast in Cleveland are arguably better, and unarguably younger and more athletic than James had at the Heat. Kyrie Irving, the reigning MVP of both the All Star Game and the Basketball World Cup, and Kevin Love, a rebounding and three-point shooting All Star in his own right, are the new members of the ‘big three’ and aged just 22 and 26 respectively, have their best years ahead of them.
Coupled with a head coach, David Blatt, who has never taken charge of an NBA team before, it may take a year or two for the Cavs to win it all, just as it did Miami, and 7/2 looks awfully short for a team that hasn’t played together and has a new coach. Perhaps the bookies took enough at 66 and 50/1 to not want to take any more money on Cleveland, they certainly took as much of mine as I could get on!
As LeBron has found, the East is the place to be if you want a run at winning championships, with probably 8 of the best 10 teams found in the Western Conference.
If Cleveland don’t win the East, then surely the Chicago Bulls will. The return from injury of former MVP Derrick Rose, and the upgrade at power forward where Pau Gasol takes over from Carlos Boozer, sees the Bulls take a big stride forward when all around them (bar the Cavs) are stuck in reverse.
Indiana, who had the best regular season record in the East, have lost star man Paul George for the season with a badly broken leg suffered played in a Team USA scrimmage, while Lance Stephenson signed with the Charlotte Hornets.
LeBron and the Miami Heat battled past the Pacers last year to win the East and make the Finals, but without the King, the Heat are also also-rans.
Stan James have the Bulls at 100/30 and pay ½ first two each way, and for those that can that looks like a great bet to nothing. After all, LeBron has said this week he thinks the Bulls are much better than his Cavs, and while there might be some reverse psychology going on there, they definitely have a chance of winning the East. If Stan James won’t accommodate, Ladbrokes 31/20 the Bulls win the East without Cleveland looks fair, if less exciting without the chance of scooping.
In the West, the injury to MVP Kevin Durant has only accentuated how good a chance the reigning champs, the San Antonio Spurs, have.
While the Spurs are brought back all their veterans and look primed to go for one more title run, their closest rivals are reeling from Durant’s broken foot, which is set to keep him out for at least the first month of the season and maybe longer.
Whether he comes back from his first major injury as a professional on time and fighting fit, and how Russell Westbrook, who has suffered a couple of pretty serious injuries himself in the past two seasons, copes with carrying Oklahoma City, remains to be seen, and they’re not a team I’d be hurrying to back at the current 100/30 to win the West or 13/2 for the title.
San Antonio’s performance in dismantling the Heat in last year’s final, probably pushing the game’s greatest player into trading Miami for Cleveland, makes them look the team to beat and the 9/2 at Stan James and 4/1 generally to repeat that success looks more than fair.
I’m opposing Oklahoma in the divisional market too with a small interest in Denver at 25/1 with a few firms. The Nuggets are coming off a disappointing season where five players missed more than 20 games, but are only two seasons removed from being one of the top teams in the NBA. The close season signing of Aaron Afflalo and the return to fitness of Danilo Gallinari gives Denver some hope of landing the Northwest Division, though I won’t be going crazy.
In the submarkets I’ve cooled my interest in Andrew Wiggins at 5/1 for Rookie of the Year. Jabari Parker has been far more impressive in preseason and looks a worthy favourite.
One bet I do like is on the Sixth Man of the Year. Jamal Crawford, who won this award last year and is one of only four players to have won it twice, is rightly favourite. He was great off the bench last season and he isn’t likely to land a starting berth with the Clippers this year either.
At around 6/4 though he’s plenty short enough, and I’ll be looking elsewhere. Greg Monroe looks to be the odd man out in Detroit, and if he moves to the bench this season, as he has in preseason, he’s a real runner in this market.
Stan Van Gundy has inherited the ‘three into two doesn’t go’ problem of Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith, and rather than try and cram them into the starting line-up, the wily old fox looks to have found a simple solution that could see Monroe, an excellent big man in his own right, flourish against second units this season.
If we can get past the trade deadline without Monroe being traded (having signed just a one year qualifying offer in the summer) the 20/1 with William Hill could be a steal.
I’m having 18 points on Greg Monroe to win the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award at 20/1 with William Hill
I’m having 8 points on Denver Nuggets to win the Northwest Division at 25/1 with a few firms
I’m having 24 points on San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA Championship at 4/1 with various firms"
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
It is common knowledge that to acquire a skill, you have to go up a learning curve. The acquisition of that skill, perhaps becoming a winning bettor, isn't linear and The Pareto Principle states that 80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes.
The ubiquitous nature of 80/20 “Power Laws” (as they are known) has been demonstrated to apply across industries and applications
The issue for bettors is that to be better than the 80%, you need to put in considerably more effort. In the process of trying to become a more successful bettor there is a relationship between success of selections and the effort invested in making them.
Let’s define effort to include time, analysis and resource applied to make your betting selections. Pareto Power Laws suggest that it is possible for the bettors all over the world to match accuracies achieved by 80% of the bettors with only 20% of the input of effort.
But how can such low efforts result in such high dividends? Most of the predictions will be based on the information that is available in huge amount on the web and mainstream media. Collection of this information does not involve more than 20% efforts on your part and in result it is possible making betting as accurate as in case of 80% bettors. Another reason is also that most of the bettors will use the same information and data available online.
However, the curve takes its original shape from this point as any further improvements in the accuracy levels will involve much more effort on the part of the bettors. Reaching the 100% accuracy level therefore will not be achievable with 20% efforts. The power law therefore intensifies as the bettor inches ahead towards getting the compete accuracy.
From here on the marginal improvements in success require proportionality higher effort, with this power law intensifying as you seek to move closer to the Holy Grail of 100%
So what can you do to edge along the curve and pull ahead of the 80% of bettors making minimal effort?
Basic requirements for getting the complete results from the Pareto Principle involves understanding the way the bookmakers work and also understanding how the margins that usually bookmakers hold against bettors. Other “curve improvements” are typically seen from specialisation, and putting effort into less researched, less-efficiently priced markets
A Short cut
Of course accessing tipsters who themselves have (hopefully) advanced along the Pareto curve for themselves is a short-cut for you to “cheat the curve”. At Betting Emporium you have specialists in areas who have the experience, and put in the work for you to enable you to advance up your own curves. The result of this effort is quantified on the results page so that you can show to yourself with more confidence depending on how large a sample size you require that this short-cut might be something that benefits you, and where necessary paying for.
These short-cuts may vary: Someone like Brodders finds events which are less popular, and for which information is less widely available and this has a different Power Law relationship than Neil on the NFL say.
What's on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan looks at Non-League teams in FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round today, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has all been updated this week as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section.
The Road to Riches: Weekend 18th-19th October
Coming Up this weekend
- It is the Seventh weekend of the NFL Season. For Neil's Sunday selections:
|
Regular Season Package (up to Dec 28th) |
|
|
Week 7 Regular Season Write Up |
- The Premier League returns after the Iternational break with a full programme of matches.
- The Racing programme features Champions Day at Ascot (see below for Neil's tip) and over jumps one of the first Cheltenham meetings of the autumn.
- In Golf on the European Tour: Volvo World Match Play Championship takes place at the London Golf Club in Kent.
- In Tennis the ATP and WTA Kremlin Cups in Moscow conclude.
- In Rugby Union the European Champions Cup (successor to the Heineken Cup) Pool matches begin
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at one of the last big races of the 2014 Flat racing season the QIPCO Champions stakes at Ascot
"The Champion Stakes is going to be run on pretty soft, tacky ground at Ascot. The results at Newmarket on softish ground reminded us, if we needed to be reminded, that a change in going can really randomise results, the top horses may not run up to their best and some outsiders may be able to show form we have never seen before on ground they have never encountered. I certainly won't be rushing to back any favourites at Ascot today and I think the headline race offers a great chance to back some outsiders.
The favourite Cirrus Des Aigles will love the ground, could easily win and at 13/8 it is probably priced correctly. We aren't trying to find horses that are priced correctly though so we'll leave this. The 2nd favourite Free Eagle is a horse with a massive potential for volatility in his price. He won a Group 3 race very easily on his last run and his jockey and trainer are saying all the stuff that ought to make the price way too short. I could never consider backing one going into Group 1 for the 1st time at such a short price but again I wouldn't be totally surprised if it won. With the trainer expressing doubts over it even running if the ground is too soft though this would be one to swerve to my mind.
I was always one of the biggest fans of Sir Henry Cecil and Noble Mission running today will remind many people of the great Frankel. This horse is one who was considered to be a complete rogue at the start of the year and it wasn't until they found the key which is to front-run on soft ground that he became a winner and the first group 1 winner at Warren Place since the death of the great man. I think people have cottoned on to the whole Cecil factor, to the fact that the horse will love the ground and not enough to the fact that the stable is generally sadly declining and may be really out of form right now. I could understand the people betting a week ago at double-figure prices but no at around 5/1, in fact I wouldn't take 7/1.
Ruler of the World won a Derby and ran 3rd in this last year off a disappointing Arc. I could easily see the same sort of thing happening here and I wouldn't put you off an each-way bet if that was your plan. I would need a slightly bigger price though.
Ayrad and Sheikhzayedroad are just not good enough and hold no interest to me but the other three runners are all interesting in terms of shooting for a place at a big price and all three could win.
Al Kazeem ran a close up middle of the pack race in the Arc, he stays well and could be suited by the battle they'll have tomorrow. I do just wonder about the really soft ground so I'm going to reluctantly pass. Pether's Moon is definitely a horse that ought to have won more races and he can be annoying when he comes there cruising before forgetting to win. A winner at Group 2 level and a consistent placer at Group 2 and 3 level this horse has not had the chance to contest the absolute top races. I could definitely see an argument for saying that he is improving, that he loves the soft ground, that he travels strongly in 1m4f races and that this slog over 1m2f in a race that might not be the greatest ever Group 1 race could give him a shot at placing at least.
The one I really like though is Western Hymn. This horse won the Sandown Derby trial on real soft ground and then was a little disappointing in the Derby where he was hampered and possibly didn't stay. After a nice long gap the horse won easily in a Group 2 race in France on really soft ground and then got beaten in another one of those when favourite. I love the trainer, I love the fact the horse gets the trip and goes on the ground and I love to bet a 3-year old and to forgive a horse one run.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Pether's Moon at 20/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes and some small firms.
I'm having 12 Points each-way Western Hymn at 16/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes and some small firms."
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
--
For an interview with Neil and Joe published recently in PokerPlayer Magazine "Betting Emporium: Sports betting from the experts" please see here
--
Note: London’s Royal Courts of Justice has ruled against the Gibraltar Betting and Gaming Association Legal challenge to the UK's newly passed Gambling (Licensing and Advertising) Act.
Last Friday, a judgement supporting the United Kingdom Gambling Commission's impending introduction of the gaming law's new licensing system, a 15 percent point of consumption tax for gaming operators and new regulatory framework was handed down.
The result of this is that currently unlicensed operators such as Pinnacle will discontinue services to UK customers from the end of this month.
More news on a Pinnacle (and others) licence application when we get it
--
Successful sports bettors have skills and talents that allow them to profit in a market where few can. Work ethic, discipline, and a talent for analysing information makes them a rare breed. I look at the amount of diligence put in, say, on the NFL weekly reports on Betting Emporium. One practice that sports bettors on any level should apply to their betting acumen is; review! At the end of any session, be that a day, a week or a season you should be asking yourself these types of questions:
Did I consistently beat the market?
Great indications of a successful sports bettor is their ability to get out ahead of their betting market and hold a ticket with a more advantageous number than the market closes at.
How many fortunate wins/unfortunate losses?
This can be extremely tricky to gauge. It takes a realistic person, but with the right mindset it can be done and is exponentially beneficial. These bets can be defined as games that had an event/series of events that altered what seemed to be a decided outcome. You can be on the "right side" of a game and lose. Conversely, you can be on the "wrong side" of a game and win a bet.
I take for example three games in last week's NFL slate where as a result of late scores in each, one or both of overs and supremacy were all "back-doored" in favour of the public and cost the Vegas books millions.
The Jets (+10 pre-match) were 24-17 down having fought well and were set to cover the spread (80% of bets were the other way), and for the game to go under. The quarterback throws an interception with seconds to go, returned for a touchdown.
The Redskins (+7 pre-match) were 23-20 down late in the game. The game was just about to go under, and the Redskins about to cover. With 29 seconds to go, the Redskins quarterback throws an interception, returned for a touchdown.
Last Monday night the Rams were 24-17 down and with a minute to go threw an interception, returned for a touchdown. Unders lost, overs won...
As a rational bettor, it is not outlandish to chalk all three outcomes down as “Bad Beats” for the player who wagered on the ‘Under’ (Betting Emporium, coincidentally, happened to be this way on a couple of the games) , and an extremely fortunate result for those who dabbled with the ‘Over’. Understanding that we are “gamblers” and a massive swing during the course of a sporting event is not uncommon is important. Whose analysis was right, those who went onto unders, or overs? The outcome doesn't necessarily tell you!
Do I have an unjustified bias when I bet?
While there are numerous trends and styles of betting, many recreational (and some professional) bettors may have a bias towards a certain subset of teams. The difference between the two is professionals have a reason towards, say, siding with home double-digit Underdogs in the NFL, while many recreational bettors routinely pound Favourites and ‘Overs’. Beyond a natural inclination in the two groups of bettors to be either contrarian or momentum players, tracking certain sub-sets and recording your results may not only expose a negative tendency, but allow an investor to realise a strong area in his handicapping. Adapting to a change in the market comes much easier to a bettor who reviews each betting block and deciphers where profitable positions still exist, compared to the player who continually plays into –EV (expected value) situations.
What's new on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Betting Emporium results
Across every sport since inception can be found by clicking RESULTS and there is a Frequently Asked Questions Section.
