Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches, Weekend of 9th-10th April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Tottenham v Manchester United. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Golf, The Masters at Augusta, see coverage here
- Racing, The Grand National at Aintree see coverage here, the highlight of a programme including national hunt meetings at Chepstow and Sedgefield, with Lingfield and Wolverhampton on the all-weather
- Tennis, the start of the clay court season with ATPs Houston and Morocco.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter Finals.
- Cricket.The start of the domestic English season with County Championship games. The beginning of IPL 9 in India.
Aintree Grand National Festival 7th-9th April 2016
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Aintree Grand National Saturday 9th April 2016 |
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Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
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Free Tip The 2016 Indian Premier League
Following hard on the heels of the World T20 comes the ninth season of the IPL. The season will have two new teams which will replace Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals which are suspended for two years (owners spot fixing and match betting, no less) up to 2017. Two new franchise-based teams, Gujarat Lions and Rising Pune Supergiants have been added for two years. Both were allowed to choose five players who represented CSK or RR in 2015.
In all there will be 60 matches in IPL 2016 across ten venues which include 56 Group Stage Matches and 4 Play-off Matches with the final in Mumbai. Squads were drafted first and then added to in an auction process back in March.
The first game is in Mumbai tomorrow, Mumbai v Pune, and the top 4 of 8 teams make the play-off stages after all the teams play each other twice in a group phase. For each macth the teams are allowed to play 4 overseas players
Looking at each in turn
Rising Pune Supergiants – An intimidating batting line-up (Rahane, KP, Du Plessis, Steve Smith etc) with weaker bowling resources. Captained by MS Dhoni
Gujarat Lions - Strong all-rounders (Bravo, Faulkner, Jadeja) with Finch and McCullum up top, captained by Raina as they cherry picked star names from the banned franchises. Good fast bowling options, not a lot of spin in the squad
Royal Challengers Bangalore - The best top four in the business (Gayle, Watson, Kohli and ABDV). Unless Starc and Badree are fit they might have to make a lot of runs to win games as the bowling line up lacks similar firepower.
Kolkata Knight Riders - A no-frills outfit with proven T20 performers including overseas players Shakib, Andre Russell and John Hastings and a potential match-winner in Sunil Narine as long as his remodelled action doesn't see him decline. Twice winners of the IPL in the last four years KKR addressed fast bowling in the auction, a previous weakness
Kings XI Punjab – A team reliant on two overseas batsmen: Maxwell and Miller. The domestic roster is comparatively weak following the side being the lowest spenders at the march auction.
Delhi Daredevils - Light on proven match-winners and superstar power, particularly in the batting line-up which relies on domestic batsmen. Captained by JP Duminy, the bowling line up is vastly experienced including Zaheer Khan and Imran Tahir , while their batting counterparts are young. Including Quinton de Kock all six are 25 or under. Overall they look to be one of the weaker franchises
Mumbai Indians – Defending champions. No obvious weaknesses, strong overseas strength (including Jos Buttler) and lots of options for each position through the squad. Very likely to make the play-offs
Sunrisers Hyderabad - Dhawan, Warner and Williamson represent a terrific top three but that strength isn’t matched down the order. In particular the team lacks quality spinners.
Best odds are as follows:
RC Bangalore 100/30
Mumbai Indians 5/1
Rising Pune 5/1
Kolkota KR 15/2
Gujarat Lions 8/1
Hyderabad Sunrisers 10/1
Kings XI Punjab 12/1
Delhi Daredevils 14/1
Realistically the winner is going to come from the top four sides here, they look to have the advantage in depth and overseas talent and the betting market skews towards the teams with the biggest names, Bangalore (Gayle and Kohli), Mumbai (defending champions) and Pune (Dhoni).
Bangalore are priced because of their star batting power but look short elsewhere in the squad and the price doesn’t offer much value. Mumbai look very strong but with home games on the highest scoring ground in India home advantage is questionable. Rising Pune are a new squad that may take time to gel.
My idea of value is Kolkota Knight Riders at 7/1, a settled team without the stars but with a home advantage due to the often difficult/dry conditions at Eden Gardens as we saw in the World T20 and one of the best spin attacks in the competition to win them home games and get them to the play offs, at which point we'd have a live bet over a few short format games. To my mind they and Mumbai are the most reliable prosepcts, yet KKR are pegged only as fourth favourites.
Bet365 are alone in offering half odds top two before the competition starts (third odds everywhere else, including the 17/2 at Sportingbet)
6 points each way Kolkota Knight Riders 2016 IPL 7-1 Bet365 (1/2 1,2)
The 2016 English cricket season
The domestic cricket season starts this weekend with County Championship games across the country, immediately following England’s run to the final of the ICC World T20 in India where only four successive sixes at the start of the final over prevented a tournament win for a talented emerging side.
This summer England play seven tests, ten ODI’s and two T20i’s against Sri Lanka and Pakistan starting towards the end of May in a more prosaic set of games before heading off on tour to Bangladesh and India next winter.
For the domestic game, change is a constant as the ECB struggles to find an effective role for county cricket in the modern era. 2016 in some ways represents a holding pattern ahead of what are likely to be sweeping changes from 2017onwards. For the County Championship, the there will not be a mandatory toss for games. The away captain will decide whether to bowl or not, as the ECB attempts to ensure decent pitches (and long term promote spin bowling).
"The visiting captain will be offered the opportunity of bowling first. If he declines, the toss will take place as normal. But if he accepts, there will be no toss."
The home team cannot now risk preparing bowler friendly pitches. In addition to the risk of being stuck in by an away captain there are now swingeing penalties for preparing unfit pitches including forfeitng games. All this points to good batting pitches and long seasons ahead for bowling county Pros!
Within the domestic game there is quite the power tussle. Longer term, City based franchise cricket is being considered for the T20 from 2020 onwards (at the end of the current SkySports broadcast deal) On the one hand the combined debts of the 18 counties, estimated at close to £200m, will not be solved just by increasing attendances and a new Twenty20 league remains the most likely method of giving the county game a commercial value of its own. On the other the counties themselves are hugely resistant to losing their identity
Meanwhile the championship will be re-organised into two divisions with eight in the first and ten in the second from 2017. Teams in the top division would play each other home and away but not in the second. T20 cricket will also be played in a mid-summer block. Players and coaches have complained of a confused structure caused by playing too much cricket that sees teams having to switch from Twenty20 to four day cricket.
Back to the 2016 County Championship and Yorkshire are hoping to complete a hat-trick of titles. The promotion of Surrey and Lancashire means that eight of the nine counties with Test grounds are now in Division One, the most since the introduction of two tiers in 2000 and it looks to be an extremely competitive division this year. Within a nine team division the Championship has often had a couple of teams making up the numbers, there being a big gap in resources between the two divisions. Whereas previously teams like Derbyshire or Worcestershire had a sole aim, to stay up, well funded counties like Surrey and Lancashire are aiming to progress towards winning the title in the near future.
County championship prices this season are as follows:
Yorkshire 13/8
Notts 13/2
Warwickshire 13/2
Middlesex 8/1
Surrey 9/1
Durham 12/1
Lancs 16/1
Hampshire 20/1
Somerset 20/1
Each way terms are a fifth top three.
Warwickshire have in recent seasons struggled for runs at times but now they have got Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott, possibly for most of the season if Bell doesn’t make it back into the national side. You can probably pencil those two in for 1,000 runs each. Looking at their line up in warm ups (Chopra, Westwood, Bell, Trott, Hain, Ambrose, Woakes, Clarke, Barker, Rankin, Wright) it looks extremely strong especially when you consider that there are three potential match-winning spinners (Jeetan Patel, Javid and Poysden) in reserve for when pitches are drier.
Last season’s runners-up Middlesex are a very strong bowling side and Nottinghamshire again look competitive. Yorkshire’s own resources will once again hinge on the demands of England, with six players missing chunks of last season because of call-ups and their winter recruit all-rounder David Willey is a key fixture in England's white-ball game but such is their strength in depth that a high finish is once again likely. Hampshire, Somerset and Durham are likely to struggle, whilst Surrey and Lancashire will be looking to establish themselves in the division first and foremost .
For those wanting to tuck away a season long bet Warwickshire each way (three places) at 13-2 (Ladbrokes) should go very close as a value alternative to a short-priced favourite. They'd be very disappointed to finish outside the top three this season.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4126.00
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.65% (over 1900 bets) (at 21st March 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,002.23 (as at 21st March 2016)
All bets have an ROI +1.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.71%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £15,002.23 a 275% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League after the International break. Liverpool v Tottenham at the top of the table and Norwich v Newcastle at the bottom are key games. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster and Kempton Park on the flat. National hunt meetings at Uttoxeter and Kelso
- Cricket. the World Twenty20 Cup final between England and the West Indies in Kolkota.
- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix.
- Tennis, ATP & WTA Miami Open in Florida.
- Golf, the last event before the Masters, the Shell Houston Open in Texas.
Aintree Grand National Festival 7th-9th April 2016
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Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 7th-9th April 2016 |
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Aintree Grand National Saturday 9th April 2016 |
All of Neil's write ups and analysis and details of all the bets that we are having at Aintree next week
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
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Free Tip
Betting Emporium will be covering all four majors and the Ryder Cup for free in 2016. With the Masters at Augusta next week Neil and I thought we would put up an early ante-post idea for the first major of the year.
Danny Willett from Sheffield is up to 12th in the world rankings, with a third place in the WGC-Cadillac Championship in the US this season following on from his win in the Dubai Desert Classic in January, his fourth European tour victory..
He is a long enough hitter, averaging 300 yard drives in 2015 and 2016 and shapes it both ways. Two strengths of his game are very good greens in regulation statistics and an excellent putter. He averages only 1.6 putts per green over 154 greens this season with 55 birdies in 12 rounds.
He played his first Masters last year, finishing tied 38th, so no debutant worries here and had experience of going well in a major at St Andrews last year when he finished tied 6th having been in the final group for the third round.
So we have a player with decent length off the tee, accurate and with a great short game. He's not a Dustin Johnson or Bubba Watson who will be looking to dominate the par fives at Augusta, but he is going to be in postion to score a lot of birdies given his accuracy and short game.
Looking at the Masters market a week out, all of the top ten in the world rankings are 33/1 or below in the market. No surprises here: Speith, Rory, Day, Scott etc. Willetts is available at 70/1 in a place, 66/1 widely available paying 5 places for a player who is buried in the betting and probably shouldn't be. If he was American we think he would be half the price. There was a doubt about his participation. Willett stated publicly that he would miss the Masters unless his new baby was born and this duly happened in the middle of this week.
Now good to go, we think this is one of the more interesting prices for the Masters.
5 points Danny Willett US Masters each way 66-1 Sportingbet, Coral 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4,5
(70-1 Bet365 for those who can)
The end of the yo-yo?
Many clubs promoted into the Premier League have found themselves back in the football league within a year or two. Of the 68 promoted sides between 1993-2014, 60% were relegated again within three seasons. “Yo-Yo Clubs” such as Birmingham City, Bolton Wanderers, Middlesbrough, Norwich City, Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion have each been relegated from the Premier League three times.
Last year both Burnley and QPR were both relegated the season immediately after promotion. However this year Bournemouth and Watford look certain to stay up, and Norwich may yet do so. In a season in which some of the certainties surrounding the Premier League are being eroded, another one may also be at risk, which is that clubs promoted into the top flight will very often go down straight away such is the gap in finances and squad depth between the top two divisions.
There are some structural changes taking place within the English game that might give optimism that this is the start of a trend. Last week saw the announcement that Premier League clubs will be able to use more television cash to fund players' salaries. The 20 top flight teams have agreed to extend financial controls designed to restrain spiraling player costs for a further three seasons.
The restrictions were initially imposed in 2013 and the new limits reflect the rise in the value of TV rights for 2016-19 to £8.3 billion
Clubs have the option of abiding by two alternative wage-control options.
* If wage bills exceed £67m in 2016-17, £74m in 2017-18 and £81m in 2018-19, they can only be raised by £7m per season for the next three years from TV revenue. During the current 2013-16 TV rights cycle, annual increases of £4m have been allowed to be funded from TV cash.
* Alternatively, clubs have to show that their aggregate wage bill for players has not increased since the 2012-13 season by more than £19m in 2016-17, £26m in 2017-18 and £33m in 2018-19.
Clubs will still be allowed to hike salaries if they are funded by self-generated revenue, notably through commercial deals and merchandise sales.
A consequence of this is that promoted clubs can push wage bills to £67m immediately, assuming they have ownership/funding to do so. This allows them to really compete, as we have seen with Bournemouth and Watford at times this season.
The impact on the rest of the division has already been felt this year with fewer easy games, acquisition of talent being broader across the division and more upset results. Part of this has been short-term issues at many of the top six clubs, but combine this with stronger squads and finance at promoted/smaller clubs and the effect is marked.
A de-facto salary cap gives promoted clubs a chance to compete that was denied to many a decade ago. Although the leading English clubs still have a major financial advantage over the promoted clubs, a combination of limits on squad sizes and FFP restrictions means that the league has more competitive balance. This phenomenon was noted by Arsene Wenger: “The Leicester example will happen more and more. Because the English clubs will get £100 million from television next year, they can buy anywhere in the world what they want. So I think the fact that the league will be more level is a necessity.”
In recent years seven Premier League clubs that have won promotion ( Stoke City, Swansea City. Southampton, Crystal Palace, Leicester City, Bournemouth and Watford) have yet to lose their places. Three of these clubs have played in Europe since promotion and one may win the league this year and if not will almost certainly reach the Champios eague. With the distribution of TV money under the new deal from next year so flat, and the new financial controls in part leveling the playing field, more “smaller premier league club” success will follow. If well backed clubs like Middlesborough, Brighton and others can get up, the outlook for them is brighter than it might have been 10 or 20 years ago.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4126.00
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.65% (over 1900 bets) (at 21st March 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,002.23 (as at 21st March 2016)
All bets have an ROI +1.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.71%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £15,002.23 a 275% increase
The Road to Riches: weekend of 26th-27th February
- Football, the International break and England play Germany in Berlin on Saturday night
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Haydock, Stratford and Carlisle and on the flat at Kempton Park- Cricket. The Super Ten group stage games of the World Twenty20 Cup continue including on Saturday Sri Lanka v England (England go through if they win) and India v Australia (winners qualify, losers out).
- Tennis, ATP & WTA Miami Opens in Florida.
- Golf, World Golf Championships - Dell Match Play in Austin, Texas.
Aintree Grand National Festival 7th-9th April 2016
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All of Neil's write ups and analysis and details of all the bets that we are having at Aintree.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
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ICC World Twenty20 Cricket
The outright preview was published last Sunday The package includes the outrights, all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the T20 World Cup.
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Cricket: 2016 ICC World T20: 15th March - 3rd April 2016 |
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Free Tip
Burton Albion v Oldham Athletic, Saturday 12.30pm
On a truncated football weekend due to the International break, there aren't too many obvious opportunities in English football but here is one. Burton are six points clear at the top of League One, which for a side 33-1 ante-post with one of the smallest budgets in the division is quite the achievement after promotion from League Two last season. On Saturday they host struggling Oldham Athletic, third bottom in a game in which Burton are 8/11 favourites.
Whilst Burton aren't the most prolific side in front of goal (50 goals this season in 37 games, the divisions top scorers are at 60+) this is the sort of game where the first goalscorer market can throw up some opportunities. Burton play a 4-3-3/4-5-1 when defending with two wider attacking players supporting a single striker. At the other end of the pitch Burton have 17 clean sheets in their league games, so the odds are in out favour that they'll be scoring first in this game against a bottom four side.
The three attacking players are as follows:
Stuart Beavon the central striker with 7 goals in 38 appearances. In recent games he has set up goals, and hasn't scored since 22nd February
Mark Duffy a winger on loan from Birmingham City. Now joint top scorer with 8 goals after 3 in his last two games, in 36 starts. Has 12 assists this season, his primary role in the team out wide. Out of contract at his parent club in the summer, a televised game late season is a decent chance to shine.
Lucas Akins, a tall rangy striker also joint top scorer with 8 goals but from only 22 starts. He's scored 3 in the last five games, twice first goal-scorer. Akins only came into the side (on the bench 13 times through to December) in the new year when El Khayati, who had scored 8 goals in the first half of the season, left to join Hasselbaink at QPR. Although Burton have only been awarded two penalties this season, he has scored them both.
Akins is 27 and has had a "journeyman" type career but this is his best season. 8 in 22 starts compares to 10 in his previous 32 for Burton prior to this season and a patchy scoring record at clubs previously.
When we look at the first goal-scorer market, much like the Grigg recommendation a few weeks ago Bet365 offer 1/3 the odds unlimited places (basically, anytime goalscorer)
Beavon 9/2
Bennett (very likely to be substitute) 6/1
Akins 6/1
Duffy 7/1
Beavon looks short, Bennett won't be on at the start and either Akins or Duffy are possibles in their current form. As the penalty taker, getting 2/1 anytime, its Lucas Akins for me.
6 points each way Lucas Akins first goalscorer Burton Abion v Oldham Athletic 6/1 (1/3 each way unlimited places) Bet 365
If I couldn't use Bet365 I would have a smaller win only bet at BetVictor
A structual problem?
Over the course of last week's Cheltenham festival the bookmaking industry is reported to have lost over £60m with a succession of short-priced winners on each day denting their profits. The festival was quoted as the amjor factor in the William Hill profit warning released to markets in midweek. Beyond the short term variance in results an interesting trend has emerged. Following the festival I saw analysis that 2016 was the sixth festival in a row where backing every favourite across the 28 races would have seen a substantial profit, even more so when all handicaps were excluded, though 2016 was an outlier even within that small sample of six years.
One of the reasons for this must lie within the racing industry itself where there is a concentration of equine talent and resource within the Mullins stable, whether that be in acquiring horses and training methods through to strategies to ensure they avoid each other in Grade One races att eh festival at a time where other leading trainers are not the force they were. The result this year was seven Mullins wins, five of them short priced favourites. Where two Mullins short-priced favourites were beaten, Min and Un De Sceaux, bookmaker relief was tempered by their conquerors being both well backed (Altior) and well backed and the receipt of casual/sentimental money (Sprinter Sacre). In addition the well backed favourite in the Gold Cup won.
Over and above the uncompetitive nature of some of the graded races (Vautour in the Ryanair comes to mind, where even then the bookmakers had to stomach laying 11/10 because the horse was only "90%", without which speculation surely he was an odds-on shot) the bookmaking industry has contributed to its own (temporary) downfall at Cheltenham as in its rush to acquire accounts and win high market shares via loss leader offers, free bet refunds and price boosts it has created a set of conditions that has artifically inflated the prices of some favourites through the festival.
I asked Neil Channing about this (I left it a few days after the festival to mention a surfeit of winning favourites, it has to be said) and he told me he knew of several outfits spending enormous amounts employing extra people betting price pushes, which are largely done on the favourites, during Cheltenham. They then lay those favourites on Betfair and lock in the arb. So to take one example the Price push makes Thistlecrack 6/4, the arbers all bet it, they then lay it on Betfair at 2.2 and all that extra liquidity on the lay side makes the horse hold up at 2.2 despite 90% of bets being back bets and the "natural" level of money which would make it 2.0 or 2.1 is distorted. The lay side is not put up by people with an opinion and if the bookmakers were not doing pushes to gain sign-ups the price would be 2.08.
Of course the bookmakers would still end up losing without all their promotional activity, the favourites still win, but at tighter prices not artifically held up by marketing department activity they themselves have created. For the bookmakers, Cheltenham has become an expensive way to acquire accounts in a saturated market given the distribution of talent at the top end of the national hunt market and the increased number of grade ones the top horses from one stable can be aimed at, at the festival.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4126.00
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.65% (over 1900 bets) (at 21st March 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,002.23 (as at 21st March 2016)
All bets have an ROI +1.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.71%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £15,002.23 a 275% increase
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .The Premier League this weekend includes the Manchester and North East derbies on Sunday. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations including England going for the Grand Slam on Saturday evening in Paris
- Formula One, the start of the new season with the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Uttoxeter, including the Mdlands Grand National, Newcastle, Kempton and Fontwell and on the All-weather at Wolverhampton
- Cricket. The Super Ten group stage games of the World Twenty20 Cup continue including India v Pakistan in Kolkota on Saturday.
- Tennis, ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells in California.
- Golf, European Tour: Hero Indian Open and USPGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
ICC World Twenty20 Cricket
The outright preview was published last Sunday The package includes the outrights, all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the T20 World Cup.
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Cricket: 2016 ICC World T20: 15th March - 3rd April 2016 |
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Free Tip : 2016 Formula One Season/Australian Grand Prix betting Preview
2015 saw domination by the Mercedes team and Lewis Hamilton win his third Drivers Championship. Mercedes won 16 of the 19 races, Hamilton 10 alone and the team had no less than twelve one-two finishes and only Vettel/Ferrari were remotely competitive, winning three races.
2016 is a year of stable regulations with no step changes in rules and engine type to really alter the balance of power on the grid. Those regulation changes come next year. Therefore it is unsurprising to see Mercedes 1/5 for another constructor’s championship and Hamilton 8/13 to win a fourth title.
There are two key battles to watch at the Head of the field. Firstly Rosberg won the last three races of last season and should be expected to be very close to Hamilton all year in an identical car. At 100/30 for the title he is better value than Hamilton for an ante-post bet. Secondly Ferrari have made more changes to their car than Mercedes in the off-season as they attempt to step-change performance to catch Mercedes and fight for the championship. Rivals believe Ferrari have benefited in the design of their 2016 car by exploiting a loophole in the limits on wind-tunnel time and computer-aided design research that existed as a result of their new partnership with Haas. At the same time, as the Mercedes was by definition more optimised last year, in theory there is less room for improvement.
At the end of last season Ferrari were matching Mercedes for race pace but lacked the ability to challenge Mercedes in qualifying with no engine mode to match the Mercedes. Typically they were 0.6 seconds off Mercedes in qualifying In testing in Barcelona in recent weeks (subject to the usual caveats about fuel loads and other variables that differ from car to car in testing) the Ferrari appears to be only 0.2 seconds slower per lap than the Mercedes. It will only be in qualifying at Melbourne this weekend when we find out if Ferrari have the capability of qualifying on the front row.
As Rosberg said after testing "We know it is close, but we are not sure if we are ahead or behind."
Taking each driver's fastest time on each type of tyre throughout the second test and correcting for fuel loads you end up with a list of the fastest lap for each team that looks like this:
Mercedes (Rosberg) 1:22.6
Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1:22.9
Williams (Massa) 1:23.4
Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1:23.7
Toro Rosso (Verstappen) 1:23.7
Force India (Hulkenberg) 1:24.0
In race-simulation runs average lap times for the top contenders are:
Hamilton 1:29.1
Rosberg 1:29.3
Raikkonen 1:29.4
Vettel 1:29.5
On this sort of data, Ferrari are far closer than at the equivalent stage last year and Vettel 5/1 each way for the title would be very tempting were it not for each way terms only being two places.
Away from Mercedes and Ferrari last year Williams were the third quickest team but will be under threat this year from Force India, who have looked quick in testing and Toro Rosso who have (2015) Ferrari engines now and taking their testing times improving by up to a second per lap on last year when they ran the uncompetitive Renault engine.
Toro Rosso enjoyed a strong pre-season test, with STR11 notching more miles than any other team, save for Mercedes. They must make the most of opportunities in the early rounds of the championship as there are limited development opportunities on the year-old Ferrari engine, but until others catch up they should be both quick and reliable. Red Bull's Christian Horner has predicted the team could find itself ahead of Red Bull in the opening rounds, yet that is not reflected in betting markets.
I expect another leap forward in results from the prodigious teenager Max Verstappen, who scored 49 points last year with two top six finishes in a car with a horsepower disadvantage even to most of the midfield. Widely thought of as a future world champion not only should the car be qwuick, but he should outperform the car too because of his natural talent. Yet for a top six finish in Astralia Verstappen is 7/4 while Red Bull's Ricciardo for example if 6/5. If Horner is right, and if the evidence of testing is right that the Ferrari engine is producing up to a second in lap speed, 7/4 is an opportunity that isn't factoring this in
Recommendation
8 points Max Verstappen Top Six Finish Australian Grand Prix 7/4 Bet365 and Ladbrokes
Introducing Variability into a Predictable sport, the challenge of betting on F1 in 2016
After several years of domination by Red Bull and more recently Mercedes, in the off-season F1 has sought to liven up the sport with much concern about the absence of racing spectacle in F1. In the words of one F1 team principal rule changes create the potential for "more stress and more mess" and as a bi-product might knock onto more unpredictable betting markets than the last few years when outright markets for individual Grand Prix have been unappetising.
After raising tyre pressures in 2015 and banning team radio around the race starts, for 2016 an almost complete ban on team to driver radio has been introduced as well as new tyre rules, which significantly increase the variables into racing situations. Elimination qualifying, which will see the slowest driver knocked out every 90 seconds throughout the three parts of the session, seeks to build on the wave of unpredictable elements too and mix up starting grids. Bernie Ecclestone was for reversing grids too. Even though that proposal has not been adopted, there is no doubt that we appear to be entering a phase where things are being shaken up.
In terms of the ban on radio communications between drivers and their engineers, for this year, teams will no longer be able to provide continuous information about tyre wear, engine performance and fuel levels to the drivers, except in emergencies. This should lead to more strategy mistakes and an end to the tedious radio commands to, for example, Rosberg to match the engine setting run by Hamilton and formation running throughout much of races. In the drivers press conference ahead of Melbourne Hamilton said
""The changes to the radio rules will have a big impact,"
"The engineers now can't give you prompts or reminders that might affect performance during the race, so you have to remember so much more."
"This even applies to strategy, so when it's shifting throughout the race you won't be in the loop. It will be tough - but hopefully it will make for more exciting races.
Also in an attempt to spice up race strategies in 2016, Pirelli will now bring three - instead of two - slick tyre compounds to each race weekend. Perhaps the most intriguing element of the new rules is that team-mates won't have to mirror each other's selections and we have seen this in some teams for tyre choices for Melbourne including at Mercedes. Tyre construction is different this year too, designedto degrade faster than last year so we should see an extra stop in races introducing more room for variability in races.
So the theory is by introducing variability into qualifying, strategy and tyre choices that races are more interesting. This could have the effect of introducing a) variance to betting markets and b) the potential for more betting opportunities, for example if a Mercedes or Ferrari is out of position on a grid.
All eyes on Melbourne this weekend then.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, A reduced slate of Premier League fixtures because of the FA Cup Quarter-finals featuring Manchester United v West Ham and Everton v Chelsea. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the Six Nations including the key game for the title, England v Wales at Twickenham
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Ayr, Chepstow and Sandown and on the All-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells in California.
- Golf, European Tour: True Thailand Classic, USPGA Tour: Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida.
- Cricket. The final World Twenty20 Cup Qualifying group games
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Festival (Tue 15th-Fri 18th March 2016 Package
Our full Cheltenham Package for all four days of write ups and details of all the bets that we are having is now available at £199.99
Cheltenham Festival Tues 15th - Fri 18th March 2016 (Package) £199.99 - Sign up here
You may be interested in the following article by Lee Davy talking to Neil Channing:
"Neil Channing: Betting Emporium, Cheltenham and Why God Has a Sick Sense of Humour" here
ICC World Twenty20 Cricket
The outright preview will be published following the final qualifier on Sunday March 13th. So far there are 13-15 outright, player market and team market bets in the preview. The package includes the outrights, all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the T20 World Cup. See below for an example of the type of game by game coverage to expect
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Cricket: 2016 ICC World T20: 15th March - 3rd April 2016 |
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Free Tip : The final Super10 ICC TwentyT20 Qualifying game
Bangladesh v Oman Sunday 2pm Dharamsala
Bangladesh finished runners up in recent Asia cup, beating Pakistan and Sri Lanka along the way and are one of the form sides in world cricket at the moment. The highest ranked side in the qualifiying groups they will be lively outsiders going into group 2 of the super 10 next week, should they make it.
Oman are the lowest-ranked country ever to reach a global tournament, Oman edged out several larger nations at the qualifier in Ireland last year and beat Ireland in their first game of this tournament. Bangladesh will be very short outright to win this match and advance to the Super 10.
In the sub markets for this game against part-time opposition we need to focus on
a) Batsmen in the top 3 of the order - they will get most of the overs against associate country level bowling and
b) Opening bowlers, who both will have the use of the hard ball at the start of the innings and will also most likely be bowling against tail enders at the end of the innings
In this respect there are two interesting players
Tamim Iqbal, Top Bangladesh batsman
Tamim opens the batting for Bangladesh in all formats and is a classy player, with seven hundreds in 42 tests. A hard-hitting fast-scoring stroke player he is ideal to take on the weaker opponents he is facing in this qualifying group.
"I've been talking to the team management, players, coaches on how to go about T20 cricket," Tamim said. "I wasn't doing justice to my talent. I wasn't scoring too many runs in T20s, honestly. So I had to find new ways to score runs in T20s, and I've been quite successful at home and in PSL in Dubai. I try to be more calm, don't try to hit too hard early. If everything goes well, my success chances go higher."
In the opening game against the Netherlands he scored 83 off 58 balls, batting through the innings on the same pitch the match against Oman will be played on. In a 12 overs a side match on Friday against Ireland, in an innings before the rain resumed and the match was abandoned Tamim was dropped on nought then bludgeoned four sixes in his 47 off 26 balls. He is in fantastic form and a class above associate level bowlers.
Al Amin Hossain, Top Bangladesh bowler
In the Asia Cup he was Bangladesh's most consistent performer with the ball, mainly getting the job done at the death overs taking 11 wickets at 12 apiece. He claimed back-to-back three-fors against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. His yorkers are impressive. No other Bangladesh bowler managed more than 5 wickets in the asia cup. Hossain took a couple of wickets in Bangladesh's first game of this tournament. Then against Ireland...
Prices for Sunday's game should be up on Saturday afternoon. Prices below are those available prior to Bangladesh's first two qualifying games, and are what I will be betting assuming they are available for Sunday. Treat them as a lower limit, no bet below those prices.
5 points Tamim Iqbal, Top Bangladesh batsman 11-4
5 points Al Amin Hossain, Top Bangladesh bowler 3-1
Something to watch out for in the Budget.
Last week a Parliamentary Question was lodged by Chris Green MP (Bolton West), and that and the Answer by John Whittingdale MP, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, was as follows:
Question
“The British Horseracing industry has an economic impact of three-and-a-half billion pounds a year, with Aintree and Haydock being really popular racecourses for my constituents.
“Can my right honourable friend confirm the date when he plans to require offshore bookmakers to make a financial contribution to racing, as those based in Britain already do?”
Answer:
“My honourable friend is absolutely right to draw attention to the importance of horseracing to this country. I can tell him that our aim is to introduce a new funding arrangement for British Racing by April 2017.
“We will create a level playing field for British-based and offshore gambling operators and ensure a fair return from all bookmakers to racing, including those based offshore.
“Racing will be responsible for making decisions on spending the new fund and we will be making further announcements shortly.”
In a press release following this exchange the BHA welcomed the Government’s announcement in Parliament, which follows on from a 2015 budget commitment. That commitment was followed by controversy around Authorised Betting Partners, with which racing is continuing with the prospect of shortfalls in funding before the new arrangements take effect to maintain the current level of Levy funding.
Betfair, bet365, 32Red and BetVictor have so far signed up to the new system. Other established bookmakers like Ladbrokes, Betfred, Coral, William Hill and Paddy Power have yet to agree to ABP status.
Until the budget next Wednesday we won’t know how much extra money will be raised for British Racing and the rate bookmakers will be charged but the BHA has said that funds raised under this new model will pass to Racing to determine how the funds are spent within the sport.
The consequence of the new arrangements should be that the commercial worth of British racing is established, rather than relying on a Levy formulated in the 1960s.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
