Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 27th-28th June

Posted on 21 Jun 2015 10:35 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Copa America and Women's World Cup Quarter finals

- Racing Saturday meetings at Chester, Newcastle, Newmarket, Windsor, Doncaster and Lingfield Park
 
- Golf, European Tour: BMW International Open in Munich. USPGA Tour: Travelers Championship in Connecticut.
 
- Tennis, in the week before Wimbledon, the WTA Aegon International in Eastbourne and the ATP Aegon Nottingham Open conclude
 
- Cricket, NatWest T20 games and the Australians begin their Ashes series warm-ups against Kent at Canterbury.
 

Free Tip of the Week :
 
On Saturday in the NatWest Blast T20 Northern group Notts meet our ante-post tip Northants at Trent Bridge (2.30pm on SkySports 2). Losing a couple of close matches early on, Northants had a bad start to the competition but have since had three wins on the trot to move close to the qualification places for the quarter finals. The schedule has done Northants no favours here though, with a trip to top of group Worcestershire on Friday night and straight across to Nottingham for Saturday afternoon and this weekend double header is likely to be crucial to their prospects of qualifying for the quarter-finals.
 
I am writing before Friday night's games and Notts has been surprisingly disappointing so far in the competition this season with only 3 wins in 7 games. By the standards of English domestic T20 they are a star-studded side and one of the favourites for the competition this season, and their poor form so far has been mirrored in the County Championship too where they lie second bottom of the first division with one win in eight games, losing by an innings to Yorkshire this week
 
In terms of outright Northants (always going to be underdogs as a smaller second division county away at one of the big boys) look quite tempting at 13/8 against an opponent in such form.
 
Looking at sub-markets:
 
Northants open their batting with Levi and Willey, with Cobb at 3 (has been deputising as opener when Willey is on international duty). Levi and Cobb are top runscorers for them in this competition season: Levi with 220 runs in 7 games and Cobb with 174 in 7. Cobb and Willey in the top three are more pinch-hitter types.  They can come off and score quickly but Levi on the other hand is very consistent, virtually a T20 overseas professional around the world these days and the most likely top-scorer here.

For Northants top bowler in recent games the "death bowler" Mohammed Azarullah has come to form and leads the overseas pro Rory Kleinveldt in wicket-taking. Azharullah has 9 wickets in 6 games, Kleinveldt 7 in 7. Willey is back of course and will be expected to take the new ball.

For Notts their top batsman so far in the competition is Samit Patel with 233 runs off 178 balls in 7 games with 4 scores of 30 or above. Batting from as high as number 4 that he has had the opportunity to face 178 balls speaks to the poor batting form of the team up top (for example James Taylor, Brendan Taylor and Steven Mullaney have little more than 100 runs each in seven games). Meanwhile in 4 games Alex Hales has 148 runs off 94 balls. Hales is the obvious pick here, because if he gets in he'll generally go on. His four scores in the competition this season are 1, 54, 86*, 7. His presence though as short as 9/4 does create some value elsewhere if the likes of Willey and Kleinveldt can get him early. Patel, as long as 6-1 in a top order short of runs is an appealing value alternative.

In terms of Notts top bowler the experienced seamer Luke Fletcher is a T20 specialist (best yorkers in the game) and has 9 wickets in 7 games. The remainder of the bowling attack, Jake Ball with 7 wickets and the spin of Samit Patel with a useful 5 wickets aside, has underperformed.

So summing up, my shortlist here across the markets on offer is as follows

Northants outright at 13/8 Ladbrokes

Richard Levi Top Northants batsman at 11/4 Ladbrokes

Azarullah Top Northants Bowler at 3/1 Coral

Samit Patel Top Notts Batsman at 6/1 Ladbrokes or Corals

Luke Fletcher Top Notts Bowler at 100/30 Corals

I think all of these look reasonable at the prices if you wanted a range of positions. The one bet for this column though is as below, taking on a short-priced favourite in Hales that offers bags of talent but priced at little value:

5 points Samit Patel Top Nottinghamshire batsman 6/1 Ladbrokes or Corals

(wouldn't take lower than 5/1)


Moore's the Merrier?

Last week at Royal Ascot Ryan Moore rode nine winners (Gleneagles, Clondaw Warrior,Washington DC, Acapulco,Gm Hopkins,Waterloo Bridge,Curvy,War Envoy,Aloft) and could have had more. He beat the mark set by Lester Piggott in 1965 and 1975 and Pat Eddery in 1989. Moore remains some way behind Fred Archer's all-time record of 12 wins which he achieved at Royal Ascot in 1878. These are rare achievements though. Six winners was enough to be top jockey for the whole meeting in 24 of the last 25 years

Understandably given his excellence, plaudits were many "Ryan was superb he's a marvellous jockey, the greatest I've ever seen" said winning trainer Aidan O'Brien. Another trainer "Ryan Moore - what can I say? He's probably the greatest jockey I've ever seen." and a commentator "Slowly but surely, Moore and O'Brien are getting like Vincent O'Brien and Piggott in the old days."

Of course purely as sports fans, Moore is brilliant to watch. The best jockey, and often on the best horses accentuated this season by his official arrangement with Ballydoyle. For the bettor though, it represents a challenge as prices often have a "Moore discount" removing value, and notionally at least creating it elsewhere in the field. Time after time at Ascot, particularly earlier in the week in the day's later races, the odds on Moore horses would plunge in part of course because "momentum" punters on course were attracted to what they were seeing and in part the firms taking avoiding action with potential liabilities on multiples etc

As Neil described in one of his Royal Ascot pieces (specifically about Dashing Star who had gone from 9/1 to 6/1 that morning )"While I love having him on my horses, I don't want to pay a big premium for that." Other punters appeared to be far less disciplined, of course and until Saturday at least, this was rewarded as daily doubles and trebles flew in.

It's a long term game though. Ryan Moore is the best jockey often on the best horses but the weight of money and increasingly artificial pricing that results is going to be a feature of future big meetings because of the experience of this Royal Ascot just as it was for Dettori after Fujiyama Crest completed the Ascot 7-timer. Therein might lie the opportunity elsewhere

With Neil's help I investigated some stats* to attempt to find corroboration for the contention that a great jockey does not necessarily equal great betting value

Moore has 48 winners from 230 rides in 2015. That is 21%, one of the highest of the top 40 jockeys. On favourites he is 29-89 for 29% (only seven of the top 40 are lower). If you had bet every one of his horses at SP for £1 you'd be down £3.69. Just as a (less fashionable) comparison George Baker with 25-107 is a jockey who is much more under the radar ( currently +£40.53 in 2015 on a reasonable sample.) and who is consistently well rated by jockey ratings services.

The only real way to measure jockeys is to looks at A/E (actual/expected), that is to measure the prices (%chance) of their rides against result and to see who gets 'more winners than expected' (an enhanced impact value type stat which can also be used instead of the ROI stat.). Moore's A/E value stat is just above average at 0.89 but it is low so you certainly have to carry on being selective if trying to find value bets from his rides.

Going back through 2011-2014 the figures are as follows

Win percentage and Profit/(Loss) to a £1 stake

2011 18% (-143)

2012 18% (-56)

2013 19% (-113)

2014 20% (-132)

2015 21% (-3)

So we can tentatively suggest that a bumper Royal Ascot and the Ballydoyle rides are increasing win percentage and reducing losses to a level stake so far in 2015 but we can better making the case that Moore horses might be priced without value than we are to suggesting that backing him blind, even with a 1 in 5 win rate, is a route to guaranteed profit.

* as at 22nd June (sources: Racing Post and FlatStats)


Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015

** outright preview due TOMORROW Saturday 27th June **

All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)

If you had bet £10 a point on all the 5 Grand Slams that Nigel Seeley has covered for Betting Emporium you would be winning £2971.30 with an ROI +18.79%

French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%

Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%

Wimbledon ( 29th June - 12th July 2015)
£50 Sign Up Here

 


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The bonus will not apply where a stake has been fully Cashed Out. Where a stake has been partially Cashed Out, the bonus will be calculated based on the remaining active stake and the maximum bonus that you can receive is £100,000 or currency equivalent. Combination bets with bonuses such as Lucky 15’s or Lucky 31’s do not apply for this offer. T&Cs apply.

Open your Bet365 Account HERE


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

 
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.37% (1250 bets) (at 24th June 2015)
 
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£6650.30
 
May 2015 was Brodders' 3rd best month on record
 
May 2015  points bet 1468   profit 202.29    ROI +13.78%
 
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
 
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
 
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
 
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
 

Betting Emporium results
 
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
 
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,733.10 (as at 24-06-15)
 
All bets have an ROI +3.22% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 20th-21st June

Posted on 14 Jun 2015 09:55 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming up this weekend
 
- Football,  the Copa America Group stage matches and the UEFA Under-21 European Championship group stages continue.
 
- Racing, the final day of Royal Ascot and also on the flat at Ayr, Newmarket, Lingfield, Haydock and Redcar
 
- Golf, the final two rounds of the US Open from Chambers Bay GC in Seattle
 
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix at Spielberg
 
- Tennis, the ATP Aegon Championships at Queens Club, London and the WTA Aegon Classic in Birmingham conclude as Wimbledon draws nearer
 
- Cricket, Saturday sees the final game in the five match England-New Zealand ODI series at Durham

Free Tip of the Week :
 
Saturday (10.30am start) sees the fifth and final One Day International of a thrilling series against New Zealand at Durham. So far it has been the fastest-scoring one-day series in history, with a combined run rate of over seven runs an over. What's more England have four consecutive ODI totals over 300 and at Nottingham on thursday England chased down 350 to level the series - their highest successful chase and the fourth-highest in ODIs ever - and with seven wickets and six overs to spare.
 
The transformation of England's ODI team really is remarkable. As one wag put it, the "equivalent of Coldplay turning up at a concert and playing Motorhead songs all night"
 
Over and above the change in approach from England, finally playing a more modern game, the reasons for records tumbling all series are becoming well known. ODI regulations (both fielding restrictions and two new balls an innings) favour batsmen enormously, the pitches this series have been firm and true, modern bats allow for huge hitting and batsmen are stronger and quicker, with much improved hand speed and strength and conditioning. In this series though there is a further factor that has a huge bearing on possible betting opportunities. The batting line-ups are simply much stronger, and deeper, than the bowling line ups.
 
Looking for a player in the "top batsman" market? Well for England Root and Morgan, as well as Hales and Buttler, have to be on the shortlist. For New Zealand Williamson and Taylor are the top run-scorers in the series with over 300 each and Guptill and McCullum have threatened without going onto make the big score, which they might on any occasion. Each line up has at least four possible winners in the sub-market
 
In the "top bowler" markets both sides are far weaker. England rested Anderson and Broad then lost Jordan and Plunkett to injury. New Zealand lost Boult after six wickets in two games and Milne and Anderson haven't played in the series. Neither side has a really threatening spinner. The result is if we look at both bowling line ups and performances so far in the series we can narrow down likely winners quite substantially
 
New Zealand (wickets/games/top bowler price 5th ODI)
 
Mcglenahan 4/4 - 7/2
Henry 4/3 - 7/2
Southee 4/3 - 11/4
Santner 4/4 - 6/1
Wheeler 3/2 - 4/1
 
England (wickets/games/top bowler price 5th ODI)
 
Stokes 6/4 - 4/1
Finn 6/4 - 100/30
Rashid 6/4 - 4/1
Willey 5/2 - 4/1
Wood 2/2 -7/2
 
Fitness permitting, with the series tied 2-2 the teams are unlikely to experiment much and these will be the bowling line-ups. The one area i see clear value is in the England prices. For New Zealand, Southee or Henry look most likely and they are priced as such.
 
I have been following David Willey since he broke through into the Northants side four or five years ago. When he was younger he was a tearaway. Ran in and flung it down with no guile. Easily frustrated when it went wrong too, which it frequently did. Off the field he was a bad trainer. A few years on he has grown up a lot off the field and physically is far more mature. He's a quick enough left arm seamer who bowls the early overs with the new ball and routinely gets it to swing. He then tends to bowl the remainder of his overs in the second powerplay if not at the death. He has a good slower ball and most importantly of all a big match temperament, a real competitor. Coming into the side after the injury to Jordan he took 3 wickets at Southampton and 2 at Trent Bridge winning and then dead-heating in the top bowler market
 
Looking at the prices above he is the same price as Rashid and Stokes yet has a significantly better strike rate over the two games, admittedly a small sample
 
Strike rates in this ODI series (balls per wicket)
 
Willey 24.0
Stokes 29.0
Finn 37.0
Rashid  38.0 
Wood 60.0
 
I have Willey as my favourite in the top bowler sub-market precisely because he bowls at the stage of the innings where he can both use the new ball and benefit from batting risks being taken late in the innings. Stokes can be a "golden arm" and i wouldn't have him a higher price than Finn and Wood either. Rashid is a talented cricketer but in this series has been bowling against players well set on wickets that don't offer much assistance. Durham should be the same
 
8 points David Willey top England bowler 5th ODI England v New Zealand William Hill or Coral.
 
Emotional Discipline in Sports Betting:
 

One of the major things that sets successful bettors apart from others is their ability to maintain discipline and control their emotions.

Here are some of the emotions that can get in the way of making good betting decisions.

Fear.

There are two effective ways to avoid the fear of losing money. The first is simply to make sure that you only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose, and are fully prepared to lose. This is one of the main reasons for having a proper bankroll. By allocating a sum of money that's purely for betting purposes, you don't have to worry about losing money that you need for something else.

Secondly, you should try and ignore the monetary value of your bankroll. If you view your bankroll as a tool of the trade, you'll remove your emotional attachment to it. If you then also practice good bankroll management, you'll have no reason to fear even a string of losses.

Impatience

An important part of betting is knowing when to bet. Online especially it's very easy to bet in high volume. Placing a lot of bets can potentially bring some success, with an appropriate strategy, but it's generally much better to be selective and only bet when there's a very good reason to do so.

Many bettors suffer with impatience. The urge to place a bet, even if there's no real reason to do so, can be overwhelming. This can lead to placing speculative bets that aren't properly thought out.

Dealing with impatience can be a challenge. Before you place a bet, ask yourself why you are placing it. If you can't provide a solid answer, it's probably not a wager you should be placing.

Desperation and Greed

Most, if not all, sports bettors will have a particularly bad run of results at some point, and many will have a particularly good run of results. Sustained periods of losing can be very emotionally damaging, for obvious reasons, but sustained periods of winning can actually be just as bad.

A long streak of losses can easily lead to desperation. Desperation, in turn, can lead to betting at higher and higher stakes in an attempt to chase those losses. Chasing losses can be so tempting to try and recover some of the money that has been lost

A long streak of wins, on the other hand, can lead to greed. It's easy to feel like you can do nothing wrong when you are winning all the time, and the urge to try and win more can be overwhelming. Just like desperation, greed can also lead to betting at higher stakes..

Controlling your emotions in either of these circumstances largely comes down to discipline.

Confidence

It's not easy to develop winning betting strategies and it can be hard to stick with something that isn't generating an immediate return though, which is why confidence is so important in betting, helping to avoid second guessing every decision you make.

Getting the right balance of confidence is difficult. You have to be able to deal with a few losses without losing faith in yourself, but you equally have to be prepared to accept that you are capable of making mistakes.

Passion

Sports bettors are also of course sports fans, and this can present a problem. There's a lot of emotion involved in being a sports fan, particularly if you are passionate about a particular team or individual. This passion is part of what makes being a sports fan so much fun, but it's not so good when it comes to sports betting.

If you are an optimist, you may be tempted to bet on your team winning simply because you want them to, even if their chances aren't that great. If you are a pessimist, you might bet against your team, because you can't believe your team will get the victory you hope for. You may even decide to bet against your team so that you are happy either way

The point here is that you are making bets for the wrong reasons, which is always a mistake. It's very, very difficult to take the emotion out of things when betting on a sports event you really care about so it's best to simply avoid doing so. You'll surely find plenty of betting opportunities on events that you have no emotional involvement with.

Strong discipline will help you deal with all the potential problems that the emotions discussed above can cause.


Royal Ascot 16th-20th June 2015
 
Saturday's Royal Ascot coverage featuring all of Neil Channing's analysis and details of the bets that he is having is £65
Royal Ascot - Saturday 20th June 2015

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Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015

All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)

If you had bet £10 a point on all the 5 Grand Slams that Nigel Seeley has covered for Betting Emporium you would be winning £2971.30 with an ROI +18.79%

French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%

Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%

Wimbledon ( 29th June - 12th July 2015)
£50 Sign Up Here

Get from a 5% Bonus up to 50% on Tennis Doubles and Accumulators with Bet365 - Watch Live Tennis Online

New Customers get up to £200 BONUS - Open your Bet365 Account HERE

bet365's fantastic Tennis accumulator offer includes matches from all the top tournaments and events. You can earn a bonus of up to 50% if you place accumulators on To Win Match, First Set Winner and Set Betting markets for Singles and Doubles matches from any Grand Slam, ATP, WTA or Challenger Tour event, as well as Singles and Doubles matches from the Davis Cup, Fed Cup and Hopman Cup. Place a pre-match accumulator with bet365 of 2 or more selections combining matches from any of these competitions and, if successful, the relevant bonus will be added to your winnings.
 

The bonus will not apply where a stake has been fully Cashed Out. Where a stake has been partially Cashed Out, the bonus will be calculated based on the remaining active stake and the maximum bonus that you can receive is £100,000 or currency equivalent. Combination bets with bonuses such as Lucky 15’s or Lucky 31’s do not apply for this offer.
T&Cs apply.


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

 
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.37% (1210 bets) (at 28th May 2015)
 
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£6283.80
 
May 2015 was Brodders' 3rd best month on record
 
May 2015  points bet 1468   profit 202.29    ROI +13.78%
 
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
 
Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice
 
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
 
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
 

Betting Emporium results
 
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
 
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,380.10 (as at 28-05-15)
 
All bets have an ROI +3.31% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 13th-14th June

Posted on 7 Jun 2015 10:31 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming up this weekend
 
- Football, England's UEFA European Championship qualifier in Slovenia on Sunday, part of a busy schedule of Euro 2016 qualifying games this weekend. Also the opening weekend of the Copa Aerica 2015 in Chile
 
- Cricket, Sunday sees the third game in the five match England-New Zealand ODI series at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton
 
- Racing, on the flat at Bath, Chester, Musselburgh, Sandown Park,York, Leicester and Lingfield Park. Over the jumps at Hexham
 
- Tennis, ATP Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart and the WTA Topshelf Open, Den Bosch, Netherlands. The grass court season and the run up to Wimbledon begins with the WTA Nottingham Open
 
- Golf, Ahead of the US Open next week the USPGA Tour's FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, Memphis. European Tour: Lyoness Open at the Diamond CC, Atzenbrugg, Austria.

Free Tip of the Week :
 
The US Open takes place next week at the Chambers Bay GC near Seattle. As a preview of Neil Channing's coverage of the event across main and sub-markets, here are his initial thoughts on an outright winner: 
 
"Next week is going to be all about Royal Ascot but I do also plan to spend a fair bit of time looking at the US Open, one of golf's four majors. These big events are always the ones that attract me to having a golf bet. I'll be putting something up on the site for free late on Wednesday but for now I'll give you one outright bet for those of you looking for something to entertain you in between betting numerous horse winners.
 
The US Open makes it's first appearance at The Chambers Bay Golf Club. This links course is going to provide something different from the tight fairways and deep rough that is the usual US Open fare. Essentially this is an Open Championship in the US. The course is long (it will be somewhere between 7300 and 7800 yards in total) and the terrain is undulating, as are the massive greens. It is still uncertain exactly how the course will set up but the governing body, the USGA, like par to mean something in this tournament and the word from the herd is it will be fast and running here.
 
So who should we be staking our hard (or not so hard in some of your cases) earned on? Well although it may appear a course for the bombers I'm not so sure, I'm putting emphasis on precision iron play, consistency and experience. I think the dry conditions will make the ball run for miles and patience should be vital.
 
Jim Furyk might not be the most prolific winner in the field but he ticks a lot of the boxes for this venue. He has four top 4 finishes from nineteen starts in the Open Championship, he is currently No.1 in the 'proximity to the hole' statistic on the PGA tour, 8th in driving accuracy and 23rd in scrambling and once you combine those skills with a wise old head, I think 'Gentleman Jim' might show a few of these young thrusters how its done.
 
I'm having 7 Points each-way Jim Furyk at 40/1 1/4 12345 generally available."
 

Heuristics
 
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that ease the load of making a decision. Examples of this include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment or a gut feeling and of course they are present for all of us in betting.
 
Common heuristics in betting are:
 
Sunk Cost
 
People are compelled to justify a commitment by increasing the cumulative investment despite the potential cost going forward outweighing the potential benefit. This is commonly described as ‘throwing good money after bad’ with a bet that has a high probability of incurring a large cost rather than taking a certain immediate, but smaller loss.
 
Diversification
 
With relation to betting, punters tend to invest more when the opportunity appears to be more diversified. A good example would be backing the draw and the away team based on the perception of a more diversified bet, as opposed to simply laying the home team. There isn’t, however a logical reason why you should bet more, unless the EV is greater.
 
Anchoring
 
Without realising it, individuals are anchoring their estimate of an outcome to a totally arbitrary point. The anchor is taken as a working hypothesis, a starting point from which the individual is reluctant to move too far away from.
Anchoring is widely exploited in marketing and is very relevant to betting. Handicaps and spread values can influence your judgements, providing the anchor on which your expectation is derived.
 
Gambler's Fallacy
 
People tend to believe short sequences of random events are representative of longer ones, ignoring the fact that these events are statistically independent.
The gambler’s fallacy is closely related to the Hot Hand Fallacy, which is the belief in streaks of good/bad luck. Where someone experience what seems like an atypical sequence of events, they infer some special significance i.e. I am on a hot streak, or my luck is out.
 
Availability bias
 
A tendency to attach greater significance to events that are easier to recall for example a high-scoring game rather than a 0-0 draw. In football bettors tend to over-estimate the frequency of events like red-cards and corners, because they are important and easily recalled. This impacts perceived probability and betting behaviour. It is linked to bettors commonly favouring the Over in Totals markets, or buying on a Spread, as availability bias leads them to wrongly conclude that it is more likely than in reality.
 

Royal Ascot 16th-20th June 2015
 
The full five day Royal Ascot package featuring all of Neil Channing's analysis and details of the bets that he is having is £199.99
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2015
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Bet365 - still offer the best sign up bonus of all. If you don't have an account you need one for Royal Ascot. Deposit £10 or more and get a 100% matched amount to bet with up to a max of £200. – This is not a just free bet, stakes are returned on winners. So deposit £200 and get £400 to bet with at Royal Ascot. - CLAIM NOW

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Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015

All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)

If you had bet £10 a point on all the 5 Grand Slams that Nigel Seeley has covered for Betting Emporium you would be winning £2971.30 with an ROI +18.79%

French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%

Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%

Wimbledon ( 29th June - 12th July 2015)
£50 Sign Up Here

Sign up to Brodders' tips:
 
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.37% (1210 bets) (at 28th May 2015)
 
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£6283.80
 
May 2015 was Brodders' 3rd best month on record
 
May 2015  points bet 1468   profit 202.29    ROI +13.78%
 
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
 
Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice
 
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
 
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
 

Betting Emporium results
 
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
 
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,380.10 (as at 28-05-15)
 
All bets have an ROI +3.31% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th June

Posted on 31 May 2015 13:29 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming up this weekend

- Football, the UEFA Champions League Final, Juventus v Barcelona in Berlin on Saturday. International friendlies including Republic of Ireland v England on Sunday

- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal

- Racing, The Derby at Epsom the highlight of a programme including flat meetings at Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Uttoxeter and Hexham

- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open

- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village GC in Ohio and European Tour: Nordea Masters, PGA Sweden National in Malmo


Free Tip of the Week :

After a big strategic error from Mercedes denied Lewis Hamilton a pole to flag victory in Monaco a fortnight ago, the general expectation is that he will bounce back and win this weekend in Montreal at the Canadian Grand Prix, and the best price on him doing so is 4/6. He has a superb record in the race, and only once has a team-mate out-qualified him in eight starts. The high speed, low downforce circuit is tailor-made to suit Hamilton’s driving style.

I wonder if there may be value opposing him this weekend though. Last year both Mercedes cars hit problems in Canada with Energy Recovery System ( ERS) failures. Hamilton had to retire after the knock-on loss of engine braking caused the rear discs to overheat. Abu Dhabi apart, where Rosberg had ERS failure in the final last race of last season, the Mercedes cars have been extremely reliable since.

However delve a little further and there are signs that Mercedes is having to push to keep a rejuvenated Ferrai behind. In Bahrain this year, both Hamilton and Rosberg suffered brake problems after Mercedes opted for better aerodynamic performance and pace over cooling capability. Also, brake temperatures remained a concern for Mercedes in Monaco according to Hamilton’s race radio.

In Canada, Mercedes could once more have the performance advantage to sacrifice a little pace to prevent a recurrence of brake issues. This is a race though that, more than most, tends to produce a surprise or two and heavy brake wear  ( on a track mainly comprising long straights and chicanes ) tends to be a factor.

Ahead of this weekend’s race Ferrari and Honda have become the first manufacturers to carry out in-season development work on their engines. Having already made major progress since 2014, substantially closing the deficit to Mercedes, Ferrari have spent three tokens (of ten available for 2015) ahead of this race.. That in theory should allow them to put more pressure on Mercedes. It is crucial that Ferrari are close to Mercedes in Montreal to force the world champions to push hard in the race, rather than being able to control the pace and temperatures from the front.

As Mercedes tech boss Paddy Lowe said on Tuesday: "It will be interesting to see whether and how the 'balance of power' is shifted this weekend", specifically referring to how much closer the new Ferrari power unit might bring them to the Mercedes cars. The gap in qualifying has been around 7/10ths of a second recently and there should be around 3/10ths in the power unit upgrade. The gap in races has been less with Ferrari impressive on race pace and tyre wear.

For Canada, racing on the least durable tyres in the Pirelli range (soft and super-soft), we can expect Ferrari to mount a serious challenge to Mercedes in race conditions. Their superior tyre management across a full race distance may again help keep Mercedes in check, and if they do Mercedes will have to risk brake problems by being unable to compromise aerodynamics for cooling.

This combination of a track that is hardest in the area of greatest Mercedes vulnerability and the Ferrari engine upgrade makes Sebastian Vettel an interesting each-way play here. Each way terms are 1/3 the odds for a top two finish and Vettel is 8/1+ in a market with both Mercedes drivers in at 4/6 and 15/8. Of course it's still hard to look past Lewis Hamilton on any Grand Prix weekend, and a Mercedes 1-2 would not surprise but the conditions for some each-way value on Vettel are here.

3 points each way Sebastian Vettel Canadian Grand Prix at 17/2 William Hill (1/3 1, 2) or 8/1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Skybet, BetfairSportsbook

(timezones mean that prices will be down for much of friday evening until after free practice two. Qualifying is 6pm Saturday UK time, the race 6pm Snday UK time)


After England and New Zealand drew the two test series ended 1-1, next week sees a five match ODI series with games as follows:

9th June Edgbaston

12th June, The Oval

14th June, Southampton

17th June Trent Bridge

20th June Chester-Le-Street

On Paper there is a big disparity between the two sides. New Zealand were world cup runners up in February whilst England exited in the group stages. New Zealand also have had a huge advantage in mindset in ODIs, and we saw signs in the recent test series that their aggressive approach, scoring consistently at 5 runs an over, has not changed.  In the Headingley test first innings scoring 350 in 70 overs, where most test sides would take 100 overs plus for that score, created 30-50 extra overs in the game for them to bowl which proved vital with the loss of play due to weather and allowed them to force a win. In the series six Kiwi batsmen had strike-rates of 60+, compared to just two for England. Essentially they were playing one-day cricket over the five day format. New Zealand are a brave side. Under the captaincy of Brendon McCullum they only play one way and their approach in the ODIs will be the same.

New Zealand are an ODI team in their prime. Looking at ODI performances in 2015 only amongst the squad we have:

Guptill 786 runs in 18 innings at 49

Williamson 641 runs in 15 innings at 49

McCullum 608 runs in 17 innings at 35

Taylor 554 runs in 17 innings at 42

Anderson 441 in 15 innings at 34

In the bowling ranks

Boult 30 wickets in 15 games at 20

Anderson 25 wickets in 16 games at 21

Southee 24 wickets in n13 games at 28

All play in the upcoming series, supplemented by the likes of specialists Elliott and Ronchi.

All this is in contrast to England’s squad. Major players are rested, with one eye on a very crowded schedule and upcoming ashes, including Anderson, Broad, Bell and Moeen Ali. In its favour the squad is full of talent. Supplementing the experience of Morgan, Buttler, Root and Finn are some of the most explosive players around the county scene. Hales, Roy, Billings, Willey are all match-winners and point (finally) to England adopting a more modern approach to the ODI game

It is a huge task to ask a young team to overcome New Zealand here though. The probability of questionable weather shortening games gives them a chance of course but the advantage in such home conditions is likely to be negated by the skill of Boult and Southee with the swinging ball.

All this helps explain why New Zealand are a prohibitive 1/2 to win a five game series.


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The Road to Riches: Weekend 30th-31st May

Posted on 25 May 2015 10:18 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, The FA Cup final between Arsenal and Aston Villa on Saturday

- Racing, on the flat at Chester, Newmarket, Haydock, York and Chepstow and over the jumps at Stratford-on-avon

- Tennis, the middle weekend of the French Open

- Golf, USPGA Tour: AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, at Las Colinas, Texas and European Tour: Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Royal County Down GC.

- Cricket, the second Test Match, England v New Zealand at Headingley

- Rugby Union,  the Aviva Premiership final between Bath and Saracens


Free Tip of the Week :

Defending champions Arsenal attempt to retain the FA Cup when they play Aston Villa on Saturday

In previous all Premier League cup final ties, league position at the end of the season has proved a decent indicator of likely success. In 75% of these finals, the highest placed team emerged as outright winners and that trend is expected by odds-setters to continue in this game with Arsenal best priced 4/7 and Aston Villa 6/1 to win in 90 minutes.

Recent finals have been close though. Arsenal needed extra-time to beat Hull City last year and each of the previous seven finals have been decided by a single goal. Perhaps reflecting the importance of the game, of all Premier League contested finals only 29% contained over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes. Five of the seven finals at new Wembley have seen under 2.5 goals and only one, last year’s, over 3.5 goals

Would we expect these trends to continue for this game? Perhaps the easier side to analyse is Arsenal, who over the 2014-15 season scored 1.89 goals per game and for whom in an era of Chelsea/Manchester City domination of the Premier League the FA Cup represents their best chance of silverware. After poor results towards the back end of the season, the form of Walcott and Wilshere in the 4-1 victory over WBA speaks to the strength of depth they have going into this game

Aston Villa are an interesting side to assess. In terms of the bare statistics, the most glaring comparison between Lambert’s Villa and Sherwood’s version appears in the shooting, goal scoring and conceding data. Overall, Lambert’s Villa scored just 26% of the total goals in their games, while taking only 43% of total shots and 38% of shots on target. Sherwood has raised these overall percentages and all three numbers are above 50% during his 13 Premier League matches in charge.

For the season overall Villa scored 31 league goals their lowest ever in a single season. However over Sherwood’s 15 games (with seven wins and a draw) Villa have scored 24 goals, for an average of 1.6 goals a game. Under Lambert in the 24 games in 2014-15 before he left, only12 goals and no less than 15 games in which they did not score

So on the 15 game sample size we have to go at we can see a real change in approach which has seen the introduction of the talented Grealish and the reinvigoration of Benteke, for whom the Cup final may be his final game for the club.

Now all this is not to say that Aston Villa are necessarily value for the game overall but it does suggest that this game may buck the trend of low-scoring finals. In terms of player markets Benteke has scored 12 goals in his last 12 games for Villa, all since Sherwood arrived (three goals in 21 games before that). The whole side plays through him and aims to create chances for him.

Bet365 offer first goalscorer odds and, which is the especially interesting component of the proposed bet, 1/3 the odds each way unlimited places to score anytime. Of course the price reflects that Benteke plays for the underdogs, but the each way part of the bet to score anytime looks very good

5 points each way Christian Benteke First goalscorer in the FA Cup Final 17/2 Bet365 (each way 1/3 the odds unlimited places)


Betting Discipline

Betting discipline is the ability to handle the inevitable losing runs, and to only place bets when you feel you have an edge. Fun Bets or Interest bets are the downfall of many otherwise profitable gamblers, placing bets that don’t meet normal criteria for a ‘value bet’.  It could be a bet on Monday night football just because it’s on TV, even though you have no strong fancy, or it might be a bet on a race at Wolverhampton while you’re waiting for your main bet to run at Newmarket. These type of bets are a drain on, and could even eliminate, the profits you make from your main bets.

Some punters follow a similar line every day. They might go to their local bookies, or sit and watch the racing on TV, but the general policy will be to back a horse for interest in most races. Most punters don’t have the discipline to wait for the bets they think they have an edge with. Having a bet in every race is fine but only if you can find a bet you believe to be value. If you have four or five strong bets for the day and dilute them with numerous fun bets all your good work in coming up with the value selections will be wasted by your lack of discipline.

if you want to be a consistent long term winner than you have to have the temperament and discipline to knock those ‘fun bets’ and bets that don’t meet your price criteria on the head. No matter whether you only bet when your price criteria is met, or if you just bet for fun, you should always get the best price, which means opening as many accounts as possible

There are punters who normally only place bets where they feel they have an edge, and while they could be successful long term; a losing run can often be enough to derail their attempts to make a living from the game. Just because you make money long term doesn’t mean there won’t be periods of short term losses. How you react to these set-backs is vital to your continued success. More often than not the losing run will fall within an entirely expected sequence of results. It’s vital to analyse your results to determine if the results are just due to bad luck or perhaps some variable that might have changed which could explain your lack of success. If however after this analysis you can’t find any reason for the downturn and the results experienced fall within what might be expected in an unlucky period then stick with it, don’t chase losses and don’t lose discipline by backing in areas and at prices different than your normal methods


French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (24th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley

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Coverage of the Investec Derby and Oaks

 

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Betting Emporium results

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£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,380.10 (as at 28-05-15)

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