Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of July 2nd-3rd
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 Quarter finals. Germany v Italy on Saturday and France v Iceland on Sunday.
- Racing, flat meetings at Sandown including the Coral Eclipse Stakes, Beverley, Leicester, Carlisle, Nottingham and Haydock.
- Golf, the World Golf Championships- Bridgestone Invitational and the USPGA Barracuda Championships at Montreux GC and on the European Tour the French Open at Le Golf National in Paris
- Tennis, the middle weekend of Wimbledon
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix in Spielberg.
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. Betting £10 a point in June on Brodders' bets would have won you £2,945 (ROI +29.3%). You can still sign up, get the remaining Euro 2016 bets and then ongoing European football coverage into the new season and beyond. You can cancel at any time.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Wimbledon 2016 (27th June – 10th July)
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Wimbledon 2016 (full package) |
Nigel Seeley is a long term winner on tennis with a proven three year record on Bettingemporium. The package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
Free Tip Austrian Grand Prix, Sunday 1pm
This weekend the ninth race of the season takes the drivers to the Red Bull Ring and the 2016 Austrian Grand Prix following a facile win for Nico Rosberg in Baku, a weekend in which Lewis Hamilton once again found trouble.
Hamilton currently sits 24 points behind his team mate Rosberg in the drivers’ championship. The Frustration of Baku and the memories of his 2015 performance at Austria will be on Hamilton’s mind in the build up to Sundays’ race.
This is the third modern day Austrian Grand Prix with the previous two both won by Rosberg, last year in a Mercedes 1-2. Two of the three sectors of the track feature long straights with overtaking opportunities and it is only in the twisty last section that the field should be able to live with the Mercedes and its pre-eminent power unit. Mechanical problems aside, a Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying when the engine mode really gets ramped up, is extremely likely.
Behind Mercedes both Red Bull and Ferrari have shown signs of being closer to the very front of the field in recent races primarily on street circuits. It may be tougher on the power tracks coming up here and at Silverstone to challenge for victories. I would expect a sixth win for Rosberg this weekend and he is priced second favourite to Hamilton, 7/4 against 5/4, 7/1 bar the front two.
Another market I am interested in is top 6 finish. All six drivers in the Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull teams are priced odds on for a top six finish as is Bottas for Williams. For starters though Vettel has a five place grid penalty which will jumble the grid up and secondly the weather is expected to be extremely mixed all weekend. I am on the hunt for a value alternative to the six market leaders for a top six finish.
The foremost candidates here are the two Force Indias that are Mercedes powered and increasingly competitive since upgrades a few races ago. Perez has two top three finishes in the last three races on comparatively slow tracks whilst Hulkenberg, somewhat overshadowed by his team-mate recently, was in the top six in Monaco. Force India sit fifth in the constructors table and tend to go better than the team in fourth, Williams, in mixed conditions. Perez is as short as 11/10 for a top six finish here, Hulkenberg 13/8. Although wary of drawing too many conclusions from free practice, Hulkenberg ran third in Friday afternon's second practice. He strikes me as interesting value in this market
8 points Nico Hulkenberg Top Six finish 13/8 generally
Brexit, stage left.
The Brexit referendum result gave a great case study of why and how predictive markets, both financial and betting, can get things wrong. After hitting a low of 1.06 with £130m+ traded in the Betfair market "Remain" losing was perhaps the biggest upset in political betting history.
Firstly a look at the performance of and implications for the polling industry.
Brexit polling was all over the place. In particular, there was a divide between polls conducted over the telephone and online. As it turned out the online polls in this referendum were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign. The online polls showed the race very close within a margin of error either side of 50/50, with a slight advantage for the Leave campaign. Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead before showing an average 2.7% Remain lead over the final four weeks. The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1.8% over the same period. In total over the campaign period, 78% of the telephone polls showed a Remain lead, whilst 63% of the online polls showed Leave ahead
Perhaps a subsequent thesis that the samples being reached by telephone pollsters consistently contain too many people who are educated to degree level or higher (remainers, as a whole) proved accurate. Unfortunately throughout the run up to the vote the telephone polling was given more credence than online polling, perhaps a form of confirmation bias by the polling and political establishment.
Seven polling companies issued ‘final’ polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum. While no company forecast the eventual result exactly, in three cases the result was within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3%. In one case Leave were correctly estimated to be ahead. In the four remaining cases, however, support for Remain was clearly overestimated. This is obviously a disappointing result for the pollsters because every single poll, even those within sampling error, overstated the Remain vote share.
The British Polling Council said afterwards that there would be no enquiry and that "Polling of voting intentions in the referendum was a unique event, and the lessons of this experience will not necessarily be transferable to polling of future general elections"
Turning to the betting markets Remain looked home and dry rated a 94% chance shortly after the polls closed after an on-the-day poll result from YouGov showed a 4% lead for Remain. At 2am on Friday morning the market flip-flopped so that Leave was a 1.99 favourite falling to 1.5 a few minutes later. Leave then drifted and the favourites switched again as the market reacted to every scrap of news, analysis and speculation. As results began to pour in from across the country odds for Remain drifted, hitting 6.0 at 3.45am and then 14.0 by 4.00am ahead of the official declaration after 5am.
It became fashionable during the referendum campaign to observe the betting markets instead of opinion polls for reliable prediction. News websites included live tracking of betting odds on their pages and main news stories would often include references to the betting odds as well as any new polling information. The betting markets however were charting the consensus narrative which in this case, as so often, proved to be wrong.
A reminder that 1/10 or below chances can lose, and of single “one off” event variance especially with no comparators to work off. Furthermore, if we needed reminded, proof that people bet to make money on their political forecasts not to provide an accurate prediction tool. The backlash afterwards against the betting industry was probably not helped by bookie PR before the vote. The Ladbrokes “barometer” and similar concepts from other firms did give the impression that they tried to present themselves as an opinion poll alternative rather than prices reflecting weight of money and perceptions of value.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £11,592
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.98% (over 2150 bets) (at 20th June 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29, 350% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 last sixteen matches this weekend, with six matches over Satuday and Sunday including Wales v Northern Ireland, France v Republic of Ireland and Croatia v Portugal. The Copa America final on Sunday night sees Argentina take on defending champions Chile.
- Racing, flat meetings at Doncaster, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor and the Irish Derby on Sunday.
- Golf, on the European Tour the BMW International in Germany and on the US Tour the Quicken Loans National at Congressional.
- Tennis, ATP Nottingham and WTA Aegon Championships at Eastbourne ahead of Wmbledon.
- Rugby Union, Third tests on the summer tours: Australia v England in Sydney, South Africa v Ireland in Port Elizabeth and New Zealand v Wales in Dunedin
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
**Please see the free tip write up below**
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. Ongoing match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Wimbledon 2016 (27th June – 10th July)
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Wimbledon 2016 (full package) |
Nigel Seeley is a long term winner on tennis with a proven three year record on Bettingemporium. An outright preview (latest news, four bets and counting) following the draw will be published tomorrow and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
Free Tip: This week Brodders looks at the last 16 of the Euros....
"Hi guys
We're all woke up in shock this morning - how on earth are William Hill only 8/1 on England to win Euro 2016?!
On our Euro 2016 package to date we're currently 37.5 points up on settled ante-post bets and on all bets in Euro 2016 so far we are around 156 points up with an ROI of 21.55% but with 15 games to go there's plenty to play for.
The couple of days without matches that we've had has given me the opportunity to reflect on performances and the draw and look at whether there are any further bets that I like. I've concentrated on the Top Goalscorer and outright Winner markets.
The Winner market is well developed and there has been a great deal of over-reaction to the lop-sided nature of the draw. Clearly teams in the top half have got a fabulous opportunity to make the Final given that Spain, Italy, Germany, France and England are all in the other half and we have already taken advantage of this by nabbing some 16/1 on Belgium. I don't think it's possible to have a bet on any team in the bottom half of the draw with any degree of confidence and we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed that results go our way.
In the top half, Croatia v Poland is a likely Quarter Final with Belgium v Wales likely to be the other one. We have Poland at 50/1 and Belgium at 16/1 and again, the each way terms have been changed by the bookies with them offering just 1/3 first 2 whereas we had 1/2 first 2 before. I kicked myself a little bit at missing the 40/1 on Wales and feel as though we have a good run for our money as it stands.
The Top Goalscorer market is still a very volatile one with one big performance still all that it would take for anyone to get into the running. The main questions we have to ask are which teams are likely to progress furthest and which teams will have the most opportunity to score goals. The teams that I think have the best opportunity to score the most goals in the last 16 are France, England, Germany, Wales and Belgium.
Of those teams, in the bottom half of the draw, England and France would be scheduled to meet in the Quarter Final should they both get through with Germany having to play the winner of Italy and Spain. I could see an England v France game having goals in it with Germany v Italy/Spain likely to be tighter and then a Semi-Final that's likely to be tight whoever plays. In the top half of the draw, Wales and Belgium have the potential to score plenty of goals in their last 16 matches but then would play each other in the Quarter Finals and likely play a tight game based on their Group matches.
We already have Gareth Bale at 50/1 and if he can find a goal against Northern Ireland then he would be very unlucky not to be at least joint top goalscorer based on previous tournaments.
Looking at Belgium, Lukaku is best priced at 7/1 and for someone who is pretty wasteful and could very conceivably go out at the Quarter Final stage or even before, that represents bad value.
France, England and Germany are all in the same half of the draw with Italy and Spain so could conceivably knock each other out on any given day but I don't like the German goalscoring chances as they have looked short of confidence on front of goal and I would want to be against them in the knockout stages.
With France they have Payet with 2 goals and Griezmann and Giroud have one each but with games against Republic of Ireland followed by England or Ireland I like the chances of this French side to score plenty of goals in those games. The same logic applies to England although we have looked short of confidence in front of goal. The good news for England fans is that Iceland can't defend that well and France definitely won't defend well against us. England have only had goals scored by Vardy, Sturridge and Dier and the current speculation is that Vardy and Sturridge will play wide in a front 3 with Harry Kane against Iceland in much the same way as they did against Turkey in a pre-tournament friendly.
One thing to keep an eye on at this stage is that some bookies have gone to each way terms of 1/4 first 3 rather than first 4 so it's important to make sure we get the extra place but I've had another couple of darts at this market with -
Top Goalscorer - Daniel Sturridge - 2 pts e/w @ 50/1 (William Hill 1/4 first 4)
Top Goalscorer - Antoine Griezmann - 2 pts e/w @ 25/1 (Various)
All the very best
Ian"
Rugby Rope a Dope.....
It’s been quite the start Eddie Jones’ England coaching career. When he was confirmed as Stuart Lancaster's successor after a group stage exit in a home Rugby World Cup England were eighth in the world rankings. Fewer than seven months later, England have won all eight of their matches in 2016, won a Grand Slam and a first ever series win in Australia. They are now second in the World Rankings.
There are several points to make about how Jones has effected such a quick improvement:
- He changed the coaching staff appointing Steve Borthwick who has taken the forward play to another level and Paul Gustard from Saracens who has stiffened up the defence
- He changed captain. Dylan Hartley was a controversial choice with a very chequered disciplinary record but he is extremely combative and abrasive on the field and has set the tone for the entire team
- Man management has been key particularly with the likes of Chris Robshaw, who most thought had played his last game for England and the much criticised James Haskell
- Attitude off the pitch has been crucial. Jones is an accomplished performer with the media and often gets the upper hand in exchanges prior to games
- Tactically, Jones has concentrated on Egland’s traditional strengths. A dominant set piece and a superb kicking game allied to brilliant defence has made them very difficult to beat.
Last weekend I thought we had a very good free tip in progress when England led Australia 10-7 at half time. Just before half time there was confusion between the officials on timings between the hooter and the official clock which meant that England had inadvertently given Australia another play. The next 22 phases of Australian attack over nearly four minutes summed up England. They were aggressive and physical and instantly injected even more intensity into their defensive effort.
I thought there was no way that could happen for another 40 minutes. However it did. England overcame deficits in territory (74-26% to Australia) and possession (71-29% to Australia) to win 23-7 in a performance described as a “rope-a-dope”.
Not only was this due to exception spirit and defence (In the words of former Wallabies coach Dave Brockhoff, they “cause havoc at the breakdown like sharks in a school of mullet”) but it has to be said the Australian attacking performance was both imprecise and bereft of quality, dropping the ball in sight of the line four times amidst a number of other mistakes and an attacking style that one home commentator described as like “watching bad rugby league”.
Nonetheless winning a grand slam is one thing, winning in Australia is another and England have been transformed into a top side very quickly.
The next challenge is a far tougher one altogether, to challenge the All Blacks and eventually beat them at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. England are still a young team and there should be a lot more progress to come. They may only have a few world class players at the moment (Farrell, Itoje are two, others are debatable) but they are already very difficult to beat because of a consistent strategy (set-piece, defence and territory based kicking) excellently applied and it is going to take more than bludgeon to beat them. New Zealand with such a wealth of ball players and flair together with all the rugby basics that England are executing so well obviously have this. However England are well on the way to challenging them.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £11,592
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.98% (over 2150 bets) (at 20th June 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29, 350% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 group games continue with games in the final round of matches including Belgium v Republic of Ireland and France v Switzerland. The 2016 Copa America continues, now at the Quarter final stage.
- Racing, the final day of Royal Ascot the highlight of a programme including flat meetings at Ayr, Newmarket, Haydock, Lingfield and Redcar.
- Golf, The US Open at Oakmont in Pennsylvania.
- Tennis, .the grass court season continues with the Queens tournament in West London, the Gerry Halle Open in Germany and the WTA Aegon Classic in Birmingham ahead of Wimbledon.
- Formula One, the inaugural Grand Prix of Europe in Baku, Azerbeijan
- Rugby Union, Second tests on the summer tours: Australia v England in Melbourne, South Africa v Ireland in Johnannesburg and New Zealand v Wales in Wellington
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview includes details of all the ante-post bets and ongoing match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Free Tip
Australia v England Rugby Union Second Test Melbourne (Saturday 11am Kick Off)
Fresh off their 2016 Grand Slam, England were underdog winners of the first Test in Brisbane last weekend, recovering from an early 10-0 deficit to win 39-28 in a thrilling match. Not that we needed telling but this was proof that under the hard-nosed approach of new coach Eddie Jones England are a fast improving side. England now have a chance to wrap up the series in the second Test Melbourne this weekend, and become the first English side to win a series in Australia.
Under the new coaching team they have solved their scrummaging issues that were such a problem during the rugby world cup and now have a line-out pairing in Itoje and Kruis alongside a bullocking back row that ensures them at least parity in the forward exchanges. Itoje in particular is becoming one of the stars of world rugby and his performance at the breakdown in Brisbane was notable, matching the vaunted duo of Hooper and Pocock on the floor.
Behind the forwards Owen Farrell was metronomic in Brisbane and keeps the scoreboard ticking over whilst being a terrific defensive player when England do not have the ball and out wide in the likes of Joseph and Watson there is a real cutting edge.
Australia went into this series missing some experience without the likes of Giteau and Beale currently injured. Brisbane was the first game since the Rugby World cup final and at times they looked rusty in their defensive formations. The scrum struggled too, a real setback given the huge improvements up front that really gave their strike runners the platform to perform so well last autumn.
Melbourne this week should be another great game and should be very close. I was hoping to see Australia priced up as underdogs after last week, especially now that Pocock is out injured but sadly not. My central case is that Australia will improve substantially and played much below optimum levels in Brisbane whereas first ten minutes apart England looked more tuned up and the familiarity bred of playing together through a six nations and a warm up game before getting on the flight really showed.
Australia announced their team early for this game and made four changes all in the pack realising they needed a more physical approach to challenge the English supremacy of the first game and given the likelihood that in Pocock’s absence they give up supremacy at the breakdown they needed to beef up, up front. They did though had no trouble moving the ball out wide, and looked threatening all game when in possession. This is reflected in an unchanged backs line up
For England Owen Farrell play inside centre to George Ford and Jack Nowell comes in on the wing in the only changes to last week’s starting line up
Because I expect a close game and being unable to back Australia at odds against I began to look at the half time/full time result markets. I think Australia will edge this one but could easily see them behind early as the new pack settles in and with Farrell likely to be kicking goals regularly early on. Such is the Australian strike power out wide though that I can see them putting up plenty of points as the game opens out later on.
The 13/2 available on Skybet or 888 for Half time England/ Full time Australia is a very interesting price indeed. I am going to record this though at the 6-1 with Ladbrokes and PaddyPower given its likely to be more accessible (well, maybe)
6 points England Half time/ Australia Full time at 6-1 Ladbrokes (13/2 Skybet)
Coming back?
Over the last week I have been following the increasing noises that Pinnacle is set to re-enter the U.K.sports-betting market later this year after announcing that it will apply for a gaming license. Pinnacle exited the market on in October 2014 in response to new gaming legislation that imposed a 15% point of consumption tax on all revenues from U.K. customers.
First reported in eGaming review Pinnacle is intending to come back and in response to a question from @bettingemporium on twitter last weekend replied
“We plan to be back in the UK before the end of this year”.
Given the state of the UK betting market, this would be significant news.
Pinnacle is distinguished by its primary focus of offering bettors the best value odds, and freedom to bet at desired limits without the fear of future restriction on account activity. They operate in a similar way to an exchange; do not take positions on games, but instead let markets shape themselves, helped by very sharp players. Many bookmakers try to distinguish themselves through gimmicky marketing including a lot of new customer offers but are fundamentally very similar in their basic business models and as we all know the betting landscape ex-Pinnacle in the UK is quite unsatisfactory for many bettors.
Pinnacle’s model works on volume, not customer profiling. They need high volumes of balanced bets to enable them to offer low margins, and are confident enough in their traders’ abilities to know that so long as volume is high enough the business is viable.
They seek volume without concern as to whether that comes from winning players or not, so it’s the perfect place for people who don’t want to be limited. There are no circumstances in which a legitimate winning customer will have their action limited. Issues only occur if they contravene any of the betting rules.
In August 2014 entrepreneur Magnus Hedman (Hedman also owns the Malta based Touchbet business, and in March 2015 he acquired Sporting Index) took a controlling interest in Pinnacle which is licensed in Curacao, but took the decision to operate in more respected regulatory jurisdictions by applying for a license in Malta. The license was awarded in March 2015. The statement issued by Pinnacle at the time said:
“The issue of the Class 2 Provisional Gaming Licence by the Maltese regulator helps fulfil a key component of a growth strategy outlined since a change of ownership, in August 2014.”
A U.K. license application will continue that strategy.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The start of Euro 2016 with the opening game France v Romania on Friday night and including England v Russia in Marseille on Saturday. The 2016 Copa America continues.
- Racing, flat meetings at Chester, Bath, Musselburgh, Leicester, Lingfield,York and Sandown. Hexham over the jumps.
- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal.
- Tennis, .the grass court season begins with ATP Stuttgart and ATP Ricoh Open in s'Hertogenbosch and WTA Nottingham.
- Golf, On the USPGA Tour the FedEx St June Classic at TPC Southwind and on the European Tour the Lyoness Open in Austria.
- Cricket, The third Test between England and Sri Lanka at Lords is ongoing.
- Rugby Union, the start of the summer tours, Australia v England, South Africa v Ireland and New Zealand v Wales amongst the first tests.
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview includes details of all the ante-post bets and match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
|
|
More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
NEXT WEEK: Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip US Open Golf
Next week sees the second golf major of the year, the U.S. Open which this year is at one of the toughest courses Oakmont in Pennsylvannia. Neil Channing will be doing a free preview of the event in the early part of next week. As with the Masters though, I am front-running him with an early selection. Let’s see if lightning can strike twice….
In recent years, the USGA has moved away from the traditional U.S. Open setup: Long rough, narrow fairways and long layouts. They've revisited classic courses like Merion and Pinehurst No. 2, and links-style tracks such as Chambers Bay. This trend stops at Oakmont.
Oakmont is renowned as one of the most difficult courses in the world. If the rough is up this month, as expected, finding the fairway will be incredibly important. The rough isn’t the most notable feature though, that’s the extremely large and quick greens.
In a press conference to preview the event I saw the comment “If Oakmont has a signature, it has to be these lightning fast greens,” from USGA Executive Director Mike Davis. Meanwhile Darin Bevard who rejoices in the title of “director of championship agronomy for the USGA” said “the frequency of aeration and topdressing has been dramatically increased as a means of ensuring firm and fast conditions”.
At Oakmont then power and accuracy off the tee will be paramount. Shorter irons into greens give players a chance to position correctly on the greens. Wayward drives will be punished by rough that will make reaching the green in regulation a challenge. Hitting the wrong part of the green is akin to knocking one in the bunker.
Of course at the head of the betting markets for 2015 majors we find the current big three Spieth, Day and McIlroy. Spieth isn't as long as Day or McIlroy, but he's a superb putter and a great strategist. After his disappointment in the final round of the Masters I think he has a great shot here. Halfway through the final round of the Dean and Deluca invitational recently he was getting some stick from the crowd over his Masters blow-up, which riled him. He proceeded to play the back nine of the final round with nine putts total over nine holes, shot 65 and won the event. It was great to watch and I do think his putting will be a huge difference maker at Oakmont.
However for this column I’m looking for slightly better value than someone like Spieth. This after all is an outright market that is 25-1 bar four and 16-1 bar three Players outside the Big Three will have a real chance if they combine accuracy off the tee and a good short game much as Cabrera did when he won the last time the US Open was played at Oakmont in 2007 when he won at 80-1.
Watching a fair amount of golf one of the players who you can’t help but notice as someone with an enormous combination of talent and a very impressive mental game is 21 year old Matthew Fitzpatrick from Sheffield. He’s been a couple of names down from Willett in my mental “golfers to watch” book for about two years though slightly unfortunately he’s now doing so well that he’s off watch lists and firmly onto people’s radars whichever events he plays
I first spotted him in the 2013 open at Muirfield when he was leading amateur after he had won the US Amateur at Brookline. He followed in the footsteps of Spieth, McIlroy and Fowler as being the top ranked amateur. He then scraped onto the tour through Q school winning the 11th qualifying spot only giving access to a limited number of events
I took notice when he won the British Masters at Woburn last Autumn with a wire to wire victory. In the final round of the Masters this year he shot 67 and finished tied for 7th. Last week he won for a third time on the European tour at the Nordea Masters in Sweden to become the second youngest Englishman to record his first two European Tour victories after Sir Nick Faldo. If the qualification stopped today he’d be in the Ryder cup team for September.
So what does he have in his favour for Oakmont?
- Whilst he’s not the longest driver on tour he’s long enough, averaging just under 300 yards off the tee
- He is exceptionally accurate off the tee. Since the start of the 2015 season he’s one of only two players on the European tour who rank in the top 10 in both driving accuracy (over 70%) and greens in regulation (over 75%).
- He’s a strong putter, his statistics have improved dramatically in the last eighteen months in the short game now averaging under 1.8 putts per green from the start of 2015.
- Mentally, he looks tough as old boots with a lot of composure on course. He had a run of three missed cuts, each by a shot, after the Masters and bounced back in Sweden. He is making scores in final rounds on a regular basis which for a young player is hugely impressive.
Yes he’s only 21 and of course this might be a year or two too early but there is an awful lot about his game that pings “major winner” to me. Already up to 32 in the world rankings, I am going to keep on the right side of him and see where we end up.
Finally, we can back him at 80-1 getting five places and in all likelihood more as and when the offers roll out in the days before the event. Keep an eye out for him, he’s mustard.
5 points each-way Matthew Fitzpatrick 80-1 BetVictor or Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
A Tough Sell
Cricket in the UK is an increasingly tough sell, the attraction of an Ashes series apart. Shorn of free-to-air coverage and with fast declining participation in state schools the move away from one of our major sports towards one of more marginal interest appears to have accelerated in the past few years.
This week England are playing Sri Lanka at Lords in the third Test. However whereas normally four results are possible in a Test match, only two were realistic this week even before England won the toss on a good pitch: An England win to clean-sweep the series 3-0 or a draw.
The first two Tests were far too low-key and predictable to grip any public imagination and an uncompetitive series with half empty grounds in mixed early season weather is the last thing the game has needed in a summer where it competes with the Euros and the Olympics for column inches and where there is much discussion about the future and best format for the domestic and Test game
Sri Lanka have performed much as expected for a side just with a great generation of players just retired. A couple of defiant innings aside the batting lacks the technique and experience to cope with Leeds and Durham in May, and the particularly harsh schedule that has sent them to English seamer friendly grounds on this tour has done them no favours. James Anderson has taken 18 wickets for 139 in two tests.
This bilateral series was scheduled five years ago, when Sri Lanka were at their best, almost unbeatable at home and competitive abroad. Since then with the multiple retirements of that team Sri Lanka have become are far softer proposition. With a comparatively small population and cricket-playing base compared to other Test playing nations they are in the downward part of a cycle.
This is part of the context behind the International Cricket Council’s imminent announcement of a proposal for a two-tier Test competition. Chief Executive Dave Richardson said that something radical had to be done to Test cricket for it to survive.
“If we really want Test cricket to survive, we can’t have the number of Test teams diminishing,” he said, aware that support for the game in some countries is so low that one or two might indeed stop playing the long format. “We have to create a proper competition structure which provides promotion and relegation and opportunities to get to the top.”
Australia, India, Pakistan, England, New Zealand and South Africa are the top six in the rankings and logically could form a top division. Sri Lanka and West Indies could be at the top of a second division with teams playing in a three-year cycle, with home and away series of three Tests (or five for the Ashes). No team could afford a serious lapse, and the country who are relegated can expect to be promoted again in three years. Or it might be saved from relegation by winning a play-off against the second division winners.
Introducing two divisions has to be better than the status quo of bilateral series. This summer, in a trial announced by the ECB, points are being awarded for games in each format against the tourists, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The winner of each Super Series, as the ECB is calling it, will be the side which accumulates the most points from the three formats combined.Adopting an idea first used in the women's Ashes in 2013, four points will be awarded for a Test win and two for a draw. Two points will be awarded for victory in white-ball cricket, with one awarded in case of a tie. Although there is not, as yet, a trophy for the winners and prize money amounts to just £25,000 for each Super Series - not much in today's sporting terms when split between a couple of dozen squad members - the ECB hope the initiative will encourage more interest and coverage of the sport.
The problem is the idea has not caught on, i doubt too mnay readers of this were even aware of it. In addition few supporters are interested in whether their team are moving up from fourth to third in the ICC Test rankings. Test cricket has to be split into two divisions. One sided series such as we have seen so far this summer are merely accelerating the game’s decline in the consciousness of our national sporting culture
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The final batch of International friendlies ahead of the start of Euro 2016 next weekend and the start of the 2016 Copa America
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom (see Neil Channing's free tip below) this weekend the highlight of a programme with flat meetings at Doncaster Lingfield and Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham over the jumps and Newcastle on the all-weather
- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open at Roland Garros in Paris.
- Golf, On the USPGA Tour the Memorial tournament at Muirfield Village and on the PGA European Tour the Nordea Masters in Sweden
- Cricket, T20 Blast group matches continue and the start of the domestic 50 over competition the Royal London One Day Cup
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview including details of all the ante-post bets we are having has been published today. Match coverage from Brodders to follow from the 10th June onwards.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip from Neil Channing The Derby (Saturday Epsom 4.30pm)
People are generally saying that this is a bad Derby. While it's true to say that the trials have been pretty inconclusive I certainly don't subscribe to that view. The whole point of the Derby is to establish the pecking order among the three-year old colts and we'll know tomorrow at about 4.35pm if this is a good one or not.
From a betting point of view I was prepared to concede this might be a bad one as 5/1 the field races in which I don't get paid four places, despite the fact I have to wade through the form of 16-runners just don't appeal that much. This one is just as competitive as a handicap and we deserve to get paid as if it is.
Luckily for us there are two firms that have gone a bit mad here in Sky Bet and Betfred who are paying 1/5th 12345 and 1/4 1234 respectively. Either represents a very good concession and I reckon we just need to find something that will definitely stay and that acts on the ground and we'll be Ok.
US Army Ranger wouldn't be one I'd be leaping to back here as it is, perhaps, a little bit "win or come nowhere". It could just be the next "Champion the Wonder Horse" but I guess it is possible he could be just another talking horse. It doesn't feel like he'll lose by not being quite good enough and he could win by a mile. I like him but I shan't bet him tomorrow.
Wings of Desire won the best trial really impressively and he ought to stay. I think at 5/1 I like him a lot if I get 1/4 1234 or 1/5th 12345. He had to be supplemented to run.
Cloth of Stars could also be really decent and with a line of form that doesn't tie in with these it's hard to know how good he'll be. He is trained by a genius and he says the horse will definitely stay. 7/1 with the extra places looks very fair.
I'm not sure that Ulysses will like the soft ground and I think he's price is ridiculous given his form. The first one I put a line through. Deauville was beaten fair and square in the Dante and I just don't fancy him at this reasonably short price.
Harzand is definitely going to stay here and will like the ground but I reckon he won't be fast enough when it comes down to it especially if the ground dries out at all. Massaat has the classic form from the Guineas but he must be a massively doubtful stayer. Moonlight Magic is another who may struggle to get home especially if the ground is at all soft.
Lots of things were said about the ride of Port Douglas who was 2nd to his stablemate US Army Ranger in the Chester Vase. He is one that will definitely stay and he could be a little value at 14/1 or higher with the extra places. Idaho is another Aiden O'Brien horse which I could take at the prices. He'll definitely stay, I think he was a little unlucky last time and he'll like any juice in the ground.
Red Verdon is doing brilliantly this year but a massive class rise is not what I'm looking for when I bet each-way, I want a solid profile. Humphrey Bogart isn't really supposed to stay on breeding and he probably won't be anywhere near good enough and he holds Across the Stars although that one could improve and win their little match. Biodynamic is held on form, won't be good enough and will not stay.
The two remaining runners are interesting at big prices and I definitely have them on my shortlist with these extra places making them appeal more. Algometer definitely will stay, the horse has plenty of improvement to come, the stable are doing OK and he'll like the ground. Shogun will really improve a lot for the longer trip and I wouldn't rule him out totally at a big price.
If you can't get the four or five places here I would really stress that there is no value in having an each-way bet and I would strongly advise to go win only. If you have the option of getting the extra places I wouldn't put you off betting five horses or picking two or three of my five that you like. I'm going to just take three at bigger prices though and reluctantly I'll leave alone Wings of Desire and Cloth of Stars who would be my extra two if I had more. Instead I'll take the ones where just a place would be pretty decent and a win would be a nice bonus.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Port Douglas at 16/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 14/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Idaho at 16/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Algometer at 25/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
Sports Betting versus Stock Trading
Be it sports betting any sort of gambling, the traditional gambler will be a long term loser because they gamble without an edge and proper money management. A non traditional gambler (an investor) on the other hand is someone who only gambles (invests) with an edge and proper money management for long term success.
Sports betting attracts many traditional gamblers because of its simple nature and as a result long term losers out-number winners. Stockmarkets on the other hand rarely attract any traditional gamblers because of complex structures and many consider sports betting as gambling (high risk investment) and stock trading as investing (low risk gamble).
If though you look at sports betting and stock trading in terms of investors perspective only, sports betting is a much safer play because it is easy to manage and cheaper (in vig or commission terms). Both are a form of gambling and the kicker with both is same--in order to be successful you need to be skillful, especially with money management and finding the edge.
Sports betting is much easier to manage because most of the variables and information are publicly available and all you have to do is analyse everything to find the edge. Stock market on the other hand is more complex--monitoring the performance of companies is much harder than monitoring sports teams. There are too many unknown variables in the stock market that could affect the performance of your stocks. Often, these variables are not available to the public immediately and because of this it is really difficult to gain an edge. Even many professional fund managers who stock pick, and charge handsomely to do so, underperform the market as a whole. I know, i used to be one!
Assuming you have the edge in sports betting and stock market, you are more likely to get much better return on your investment in sports betting than stock market. Professional sports investors do not bet any more than 2-3% of their bankroll in any bets. If you make all your bets at 10/11 odds, you need to hit 53% or better of your bets to make profit. On occasions playing higher odds +ev bets can allow us to make profits even when we hit less than 50%. For the stock-market investor in addition to bigger capital required, your investment is also exposed to losses outside your control in the case of general market moves. Sports betting is an investment that will not be affected during tough economic times.
Finally, fees involved in stock trading are hard to overcome unless your capital is very large. There are also many levels of fees. You may hear that the fee is only X amount per trade but this means 2X the fees because you have to execute the trade twice for each stock (once when you buy and once when you sell) There is also the bid and ask fee. Bid price is the price announced by the buyer at which he is willing to purchase a stock. Ask price is the price announced by the seller at which he is willing to sell a stock. The difference between ask and bid prices is referred to as the spread. The spread goes to the pockets of the broker or specialist who was responsible for the stock transaction for the paying of other fees. There also numerous other account administration fees and commissions that you may encounter. When it comes to sports betting you don't have to worry about any of these fees.
Sports betting can be a much safer play than stock market if you approach it with an investors perspective. However, sports investing and stock investing are viewed differently by government regulators. Governments around the globe encourage stock investing a nice respectable occupation in the eyes of most. Much of the sports betting industry is offshore and it is much easier to tax stock investors than sports investors, thus the regulatory framework overlaying the two industries is very different.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
