Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 group games continue with games in the final round of matches including Belgium v Republic of Ireland and France v Switzerland. The 2016 Copa America continues, now at the Quarter final stage.
- Racing, the final day of Royal Ascot the highlight of a programme including flat meetings at Ayr, Newmarket, Haydock, Lingfield and Redcar.
- Golf, The US Open at Oakmont in Pennsylvania.
- Tennis, .the grass court season continues with the Queens tournament in West London, the Gerry Halle Open in Germany and the WTA Aegon Classic in Birmingham ahead of Wimbledon.
- Formula One, the inaugural Grand Prix of Europe in Baku, Azerbeijan
- Rugby Union, Second tests on the summer tours: Australia v England in Melbourne, South Africa v Ireland in Johnannesburg and New Zealand v Wales in Wellington
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview includes details of all the ante-post bets and ongoing match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Free Tip
Australia v England Rugby Union Second Test Melbourne (Saturday 11am Kick Off)
Fresh off their 2016 Grand Slam, England were underdog winners of the first Test in Brisbane last weekend, recovering from an early 10-0 deficit to win 39-28 in a thrilling match. Not that we needed telling but this was proof that under the hard-nosed approach of new coach Eddie Jones England are a fast improving side. England now have a chance to wrap up the series in the second Test Melbourne this weekend, and become the first English side to win a series in Australia.
Under the new coaching team they have solved their scrummaging issues that were such a problem during the rugby world cup and now have a line-out pairing in Itoje and Kruis alongside a bullocking back row that ensures them at least parity in the forward exchanges. Itoje in particular is becoming one of the stars of world rugby and his performance at the breakdown in Brisbane was notable, matching the vaunted duo of Hooper and Pocock on the floor.
Behind the forwards Owen Farrell was metronomic in Brisbane and keeps the scoreboard ticking over whilst being a terrific defensive player when England do not have the ball and out wide in the likes of Joseph and Watson there is a real cutting edge.
Australia went into this series missing some experience without the likes of Giteau and Beale currently injured. Brisbane was the first game since the Rugby World cup final and at times they looked rusty in their defensive formations. The scrum struggled too, a real setback given the huge improvements up front that really gave their strike runners the platform to perform so well last autumn.
Melbourne this week should be another great game and should be very close. I was hoping to see Australia priced up as underdogs after last week, especially now that Pocock is out injured but sadly not. My central case is that Australia will improve substantially and played much below optimum levels in Brisbane whereas first ten minutes apart England looked more tuned up and the familiarity bred of playing together through a six nations and a warm up game before getting on the flight really showed.
Australia announced their team early for this game and made four changes all in the pack realising they needed a more physical approach to challenge the English supremacy of the first game and given the likelihood that in Pocock’s absence they give up supremacy at the breakdown they needed to beef up, up front. They did though had no trouble moving the ball out wide, and looked threatening all game when in possession. This is reflected in an unchanged backs line up
For England Owen Farrell play inside centre to George Ford and Jack Nowell comes in on the wing in the only changes to last week’s starting line up
Because I expect a close game and being unable to back Australia at odds against I began to look at the half time/full time result markets. I think Australia will edge this one but could easily see them behind early as the new pack settles in and with Farrell likely to be kicking goals regularly early on. Such is the Australian strike power out wide though that I can see them putting up plenty of points as the game opens out later on.
The 13/2 available on Skybet or 888 for Half time England/ Full time Australia is a very interesting price indeed. I am going to record this though at the 6-1 with Ladbrokes and PaddyPower given its likely to be more accessible (well, maybe)
6 points England Half time/ Australia Full time at 6-1 Ladbrokes (13/2 Skybet)
Coming back?
Over the last week I have been following the increasing noises that Pinnacle is set to re-enter the U.K.sports-betting market later this year after announcing that it will apply for a gaming license. Pinnacle exited the market on in October 2014 in response to new gaming legislation that imposed a 15% point of consumption tax on all revenues from U.K. customers.
First reported in eGaming review Pinnacle is intending to come back and in response to a question from @bettingemporium on twitter last weekend replied
“We plan to be back in the UK before the end of this year”.
Given the state of the UK betting market, this would be significant news.
Pinnacle is distinguished by its primary focus of offering bettors the best value odds, and freedom to bet at desired limits without the fear of future restriction on account activity. They operate in a similar way to an exchange; do not take positions on games, but instead let markets shape themselves, helped by very sharp players. Many bookmakers try to distinguish themselves through gimmicky marketing including a lot of new customer offers but are fundamentally very similar in their basic business models and as we all know the betting landscape ex-Pinnacle in the UK is quite unsatisfactory for many bettors.
Pinnacle’s model works on volume, not customer profiling. They need high volumes of balanced bets to enable them to offer low margins, and are confident enough in their traders’ abilities to know that so long as volume is high enough the business is viable.
They seek volume without concern as to whether that comes from winning players or not, so it’s the perfect place for people who don’t want to be limited. There are no circumstances in which a legitimate winning customer will have their action limited. Issues only occur if they contravene any of the betting rules.
In August 2014 entrepreneur Magnus Hedman (Hedman also owns the Malta based Touchbet business, and in March 2015 he acquired Sporting Index) took a controlling interest in Pinnacle which is licensed in Curacao, but took the decision to operate in more respected regulatory jurisdictions by applying for a license in Malta. The license was awarded in March 2015. The statement issued by Pinnacle at the time said:
“The issue of the Class 2 Provisional Gaming Licence by the Maltese regulator helps fulfil a key component of a growth strategy outlined since a change of ownership, in August 2014.”
A U.K. license application will continue that strategy.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The start of Euro 2016 with the opening game France v Romania on Friday night and including England v Russia in Marseille on Saturday. The 2016 Copa America continues.
- Racing, flat meetings at Chester, Bath, Musselburgh, Leicester, Lingfield,York and Sandown. Hexham over the jumps.
- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal.
- Tennis, .the grass court season begins with ATP Stuttgart and ATP Ricoh Open in s'Hertogenbosch and WTA Nottingham.
- Golf, On the USPGA Tour the FedEx St June Classic at TPC Southwind and on the European Tour the Lyoness Open in Austria.
- Cricket, The third Test between England and Sri Lanka at Lords is ongoing.
- Rugby Union, the start of the summer tours, Australia v England, South Africa v Ireland and New Zealand v Wales amongst the first tests.
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview includes details of all the ante-post bets and match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
NEXT WEEK: Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip US Open Golf
Next week sees the second golf major of the year, the U.S. Open which this year is at one of the toughest courses Oakmont in Pennsylvannia. Neil Channing will be doing a free preview of the event in the early part of next week. As with the Masters though, I am front-running him with an early selection. Let’s see if lightning can strike twice….
In recent years, the USGA has moved away from the traditional U.S. Open setup: Long rough, narrow fairways and long layouts. They've revisited classic courses like Merion and Pinehurst No. 2, and links-style tracks such as Chambers Bay. This trend stops at Oakmont.
Oakmont is renowned as one of the most difficult courses in the world. If the rough is up this month, as expected, finding the fairway will be incredibly important. The rough isn’t the most notable feature though, that’s the extremely large and quick greens.
In a press conference to preview the event I saw the comment “If Oakmont has a signature, it has to be these lightning fast greens,” from USGA Executive Director Mike Davis. Meanwhile Darin Bevard who rejoices in the title of “director of championship agronomy for the USGA” said “the frequency of aeration and topdressing has been dramatically increased as a means of ensuring firm and fast conditions”.
At Oakmont then power and accuracy off the tee will be paramount. Shorter irons into greens give players a chance to position correctly on the greens. Wayward drives will be punished by rough that will make reaching the green in regulation a challenge. Hitting the wrong part of the green is akin to knocking one in the bunker.
Of course at the head of the betting markets for 2015 majors we find the current big three Spieth, Day and McIlroy. Spieth isn't as long as Day or McIlroy, but he's a superb putter and a great strategist. After his disappointment in the final round of the Masters I think he has a great shot here. Halfway through the final round of the Dean and Deluca invitational recently he was getting some stick from the crowd over his Masters blow-up, which riled him. He proceeded to play the back nine of the final round with nine putts total over nine holes, shot 65 and won the event. It was great to watch and I do think his putting will be a huge difference maker at Oakmont.
However for this column I’m looking for slightly better value than someone like Spieth. This after all is an outright market that is 25-1 bar four and 16-1 bar three Players outside the Big Three will have a real chance if they combine accuracy off the tee and a good short game much as Cabrera did when he won the last time the US Open was played at Oakmont in 2007 when he won at 80-1.
Watching a fair amount of golf one of the players who you can’t help but notice as someone with an enormous combination of talent and a very impressive mental game is 21 year old Matthew Fitzpatrick from Sheffield. He’s been a couple of names down from Willett in my mental “golfers to watch” book for about two years though slightly unfortunately he’s now doing so well that he’s off watch lists and firmly onto people’s radars whichever events he plays
I first spotted him in the 2013 open at Muirfield when he was leading amateur after he had won the US Amateur at Brookline. He followed in the footsteps of Spieth, McIlroy and Fowler as being the top ranked amateur. He then scraped onto the tour through Q school winning the 11th qualifying spot only giving access to a limited number of events
I took notice when he won the British Masters at Woburn last Autumn with a wire to wire victory. In the final round of the Masters this year he shot 67 and finished tied for 7th. Last week he won for a third time on the European tour at the Nordea Masters in Sweden to become the second youngest Englishman to record his first two European Tour victories after Sir Nick Faldo. If the qualification stopped today he’d be in the Ryder cup team for September.
So what does he have in his favour for Oakmont?
- Whilst he’s not the longest driver on tour he’s long enough, averaging just under 300 yards off the tee
- He is exceptionally accurate off the tee. Since the start of the 2015 season he’s one of only two players on the European tour who rank in the top 10 in both driving accuracy (over 70%) and greens in regulation (over 75%).
- He’s a strong putter, his statistics have improved dramatically in the last eighteen months in the short game now averaging under 1.8 putts per green from the start of 2015.
- Mentally, he looks tough as old boots with a lot of composure on course. He had a run of three missed cuts, each by a shot, after the Masters and bounced back in Sweden. He is making scores in final rounds on a regular basis which for a young player is hugely impressive.
Yes he’s only 21 and of course this might be a year or two too early but there is an awful lot about his game that pings “major winner” to me. Already up to 32 in the world rankings, I am going to keep on the right side of him and see where we end up.
Finally, we can back him at 80-1 getting five places and in all likelihood more as and when the offers roll out in the days before the event. Keep an eye out for him, he’s mustard.
5 points each-way Matthew Fitzpatrick 80-1 BetVictor or Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
A Tough Sell
Cricket in the UK is an increasingly tough sell, the attraction of an Ashes series apart. Shorn of free-to-air coverage and with fast declining participation in state schools the move away from one of our major sports towards one of more marginal interest appears to have accelerated in the past few years.
This week England are playing Sri Lanka at Lords in the third Test. However whereas normally four results are possible in a Test match, only two were realistic this week even before England won the toss on a good pitch: An England win to clean-sweep the series 3-0 or a draw.
The first two Tests were far too low-key and predictable to grip any public imagination and an uncompetitive series with half empty grounds in mixed early season weather is the last thing the game has needed in a summer where it competes with the Euros and the Olympics for column inches and where there is much discussion about the future and best format for the domestic and Test game
Sri Lanka have performed much as expected for a side just with a great generation of players just retired. A couple of defiant innings aside the batting lacks the technique and experience to cope with Leeds and Durham in May, and the particularly harsh schedule that has sent them to English seamer friendly grounds on this tour has done them no favours. James Anderson has taken 18 wickets for 139 in two tests.
This bilateral series was scheduled five years ago, when Sri Lanka were at their best, almost unbeatable at home and competitive abroad. Since then with the multiple retirements of that team Sri Lanka have become are far softer proposition. With a comparatively small population and cricket-playing base compared to other Test playing nations they are in the downward part of a cycle.
This is part of the context behind the International Cricket Council’s imminent announcement of a proposal for a two-tier Test competition. Chief Executive Dave Richardson said that something radical had to be done to Test cricket for it to survive.
“If we really want Test cricket to survive, we can’t have the number of Test teams diminishing,” he said, aware that support for the game in some countries is so low that one or two might indeed stop playing the long format. “We have to create a proper competition structure which provides promotion and relegation and opportunities to get to the top.”
Australia, India, Pakistan, England, New Zealand and South Africa are the top six in the rankings and logically could form a top division. Sri Lanka and West Indies could be at the top of a second division with teams playing in a three-year cycle, with home and away series of three Tests (or five for the Ashes). No team could afford a serious lapse, and the country who are relegated can expect to be promoted again in three years. Or it might be saved from relegation by winning a play-off against the second division winners.
Introducing two divisions has to be better than the status quo of bilateral series. This summer, in a trial announced by the ECB, points are being awarded for games in each format against the tourists, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The winner of each Super Series, as the ECB is calling it, will be the side which accumulates the most points from the three formats combined.Adopting an idea first used in the women's Ashes in 2013, four points will be awarded for a Test win and two for a draw. Two points will be awarded for victory in white-ball cricket, with one awarded in case of a tie. Although there is not, as yet, a trophy for the winners and prize money amounts to just £25,000 for each Super Series - not much in today's sporting terms when split between a couple of dozen squad members - the ECB hope the initiative will encourage more interest and coverage of the sport.
The problem is the idea has not caught on, i doubt too mnay readers of this were even aware of it. In addition few supporters are interested in whether their team are moving up from fourth to third in the ICC Test rankings. Test cricket has to be split into two divisions. One sided series such as we have seen so far this summer are merely accelerating the game’s decline in the consciousness of our national sporting culture
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The final batch of International friendlies ahead of the start of Euro 2016 next weekend and the start of the 2016 Copa America
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom (see Neil Channing's free tip below) this weekend the highlight of a programme with flat meetings at Doncaster Lingfield and Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham over the jumps and Newcastle on the all-weather
- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open at Roland Garros in Paris.
- Golf, On the USPGA Tour the Memorial tournament at Muirfield Village and on the PGA European Tour the Nordea Masters in Sweden
- Cricket, T20 Blast group matches continue and the start of the domestic 50 over competition the Royal London One Day Cup
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview including details of all the ante-post bets we are having has been published today. Match coverage from Brodders to follow from the 10th June onwards.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
£50 a month - Sign Up Here |
| More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... | FREE tip |
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip from Neil Channing The Derby (Saturday Epsom 4.30pm)
People are generally saying that this is a bad Derby. While it's true to say that the trials have been pretty inconclusive I certainly don't subscribe to that view. The whole point of the Derby is to establish the pecking order among the three-year old colts and we'll know tomorrow at about 4.35pm if this is a good one or not.
From a betting point of view I was prepared to concede this might be a bad one as 5/1 the field races in which I don't get paid four places, despite the fact I have to wade through the form of 16-runners just don't appeal that much. This one is just as competitive as a handicap and we deserve to get paid as if it is.
Luckily for us there are two firms that have gone a bit mad here in Sky Bet and Betfred who are paying 1/5th 12345 and 1/4 1234 respectively. Either represents a very good concession and I reckon we just need to find something that will definitely stay and that acts on the ground and we'll be Ok.
US Army Ranger wouldn't be one I'd be leaping to back here as it is, perhaps, a little bit "win or come nowhere". It could just be the next "Champion the Wonder Horse" but I guess it is possible he could be just another talking horse. It doesn't feel like he'll lose by not being quite good enough and he could win by a mile. I like him but I shan't bet him tomorrow.
Wings of Desire won the best trial really impressively and he ought to stay. I think at 5/1 I like him a lot if I get 1/4 1234 or 1/5th 12345. He had to be supplemented to run.
Cloth of Stars could also be really decent and with a line of form that doesn't tie in with these it's hard to know how good he'll be. He is trained by a genius and he says the horse will definitely stay. 7/1 with the extra places looks very fair.
I'm not sure that Ulysses will like the soft ground and I think he's price is ridiculous given his form. The first one I put a line through. Deauville was beaten fair and square in the Dante and I just don't fancy him at this reasonably short price.
Harzand is definitely going to stay here and will like the ground but I reckon he won't be fast enough when it comes down to it especially if the ground dries out at all. Massaat has the classic form from the Guineas but he must be a massively doubtful stayer. Moonlight Magic is another who may struggle to get home especially if the ground is at all soft.
Lots of things were said about the ride of Port Douglas who was 2nd to his stablemate US Army Ranger in the Chester Vase. He is one that will definitely stay and he could be a little value at 14/1 or higher with the extra places. Idaho is another Aiden O'Brien horse which I could take at the prices. He'll definitely stay, I think he was a little unlucky last time and he'll like any juice in the ground.
Red Verdon is doing brilliantly this year but a massive class rise is not what I'm looking for when I bet each-way, I want a solid profile. Humphrey Bogart isn't really supposed to stay on breeding and he probably won't be anywhere near good enough and he holds Across the Stars although that one could improve and win their little match. Biodynamic is held on form, won't be good enough and will not stay.
The two remaining runners are interesting at big prices and I definitely have them on my shortlist with these extra places making them appeal more. Algometer definitely will stay, the horse has plenty of improvement to come, the stable are doing OK and he'll like the ground. Shogun will really improve a lot for the longer trip and I wouldn't rule him out totally at a big price.
If you can't get the four or five places here I would really stress that there is no value in having an each-way bet and I would strongly advise to go win only. If you have the option of getting the extra places I wouldn't put you off betting five horses or picking two or three of my five that you like. I'm going to just take three at bigger prices though and reluctantly I'll leave alone Wings of Desire and Cloth of Stars who would be my extra two if I had more. Instead I'll take the ones where just a place would be pretty decent and a win would be a nice bonus.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Port Douglas at 16/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 14/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Idaho at 16/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Algometer at 25/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
Sports Betting versus Stock Trading
Be it sports betting any sort of gambling, the traditional gambler will be a long term loser because they gamble without an edge and proper money management. A non traditional gambler (an investor) on the other hand is someone who only gambles (invests) with an edge and proper money management for long term success.
Sports betting attracts many traditional gamblers because of its simple nature and as a result long term losers out-number winners. Stockmarkets on the other hand rarely attract any traditional gamblers because of complex structures and many consider sports betting as gambling (high risk investment) and stock trading as investing (low risk gamble).
If though you look at sports betting and stock trading in terms of investors perspective only, sports betting is a much safer play because it is easy to manage and cheaper (in vig or commission terms). Both are a form of gambling and the kicker with both is same--in order to be successful you need to be skillful, especially with money management and finding the edge.
Sports betting is much easier to manage because most of the variables and information are publicly available and all you have to do is analyse everything to find the edge. Stock market on the other hand is more complex--monitoring the performance of companies is much harder than monitoring sports teams. There are too many unknown variables in the stock market that could affect the performance of your stocks. Often, these variables are not available to the public immediately and because of this it is really difficult to gain an edge. Even many professional fund managers who stock pick, and charge handsomely to do so, underperform the market as a whole. I know, i used to be one!
Assuming you have the edge in sports betting and stock market, you are more likely to get much better return on your investment in sports betting than stock market. Professional sports investors do not bet any more than 2-3% of their bankroll in any bets. If you make all your bets at 10/11 odds, you need to hit 53% or better of your bets to make profit. On occasions playing higher odds +ev bets can allow us to make profits even when we hit less than 50%. For the stock-market investor in addition to bigger capital required, your investment is also exposed to losses outside your control in the case of general market moves. Sports betting is an investment that will not be affected during tough economic times.
Finally, fees involved in stock trading are hard to overcome unless your capital is very large. There are also many levels of fees. You may hear that the fee is only X amount per trade but this means 2X the fees because you have to execute the trade twice for each stock (once when you buy and once when you sell) There is also the bid and ask fee. Bid price is the price announced by the buyer at which he is willing to purchase a stock. Ask price is the price announced by the seller at which he is willing to sell a stock. The difference between ask and bid prices is referred to as the spread. The spread goes to the pockets of the broker or specialist who was responsible for the stock transaction for the paying of other fees. There also numerous other account administration fees and commissions that you may encounter. When it comes to sports betting you don't have to worry about any of these fees.
Sports betting can be a much safer play than stock market if you approach it with an investors perspective. However, sports investing and stock investing are viewed differently by government regulators. Governments around the globe encourage stock investing a nice respectable occupation in the eyes of most. Much of the sports betting industry is offshore and it is much easier to tax stock investors than sports investors, thus the regulatory framework overlaying the two industries is very different.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
The Road To Riches Weekend of 28th-29th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Champions League final between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid at the San Siro in Milan on Saturday. Pre-Euro 2016 warm ups continue with England v Australia in Sunderland on Friday night.
- Racing, on the flat at Beverley, Chester, Salisbury, Catterick and Haydock. National Hunt meetings at Cartmel and Ffos Las.
- Tennis, the French Open continues at Roland Garros in Paris.
- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix.
- Golf, USPGA Colonial National Invitation at Colonial CC and on the European Tour the BMW PGA at Wentworth.
- Cricket. the second test England v Sri Lanka at Durham continues, and the final of IPL9 in Bangalore on Sunday.
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership final Saracens v Exeter Chiefs on Saturday at Twickenham.
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. His 2015 French Open had a spectacular +43% ROI and he is a long term winner. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip The Monaco Grand Prix
Sunday sees the latest Grand Prix of the 2016 season in Monte Carlo one of the iconic races in the calendar around the tight streets of the Principality. Last time out in Spain Max Verstappen created his own piece of history by winning at 18 years old in his first race for Red Bull (at 100-1, no less) and in doing so broke a run of seven successive Nico Rosberg victories for Mercedes across the end of last season and the beginning of this. Of course the Mercedes drivers tangling in Barcelona and exiting the race played a large part in this but nonetheless with the battles between both Ferraris and both Red Bulls all race very close, signs are that the chasing pack behind the pre-eminent team in the sport currently is bunching up.
A year ago in this column I put up the Red Bulls each-way against short-priced Mercedes favourites and they finished 4th and 5th for a "close but no cigar" pair of recommendations at 20-1 and 25-1 despite their disadvantages relatvie to Mercedes last year. I planned to do so again this year because (alongside Singapore) the combination of the Monaco circuit and the Red Bull chassis gives potential more than any other tracks for Mercedes to be challenged. Mercedes' power advantage is minimised on the street circuit and the Red Bull is consistently quick across each track in slow corners and complexes where its pre-eminent chassis allows it to corner efficiently.
Normally when looking at F1 outright prices in recent years we've faced Hamilton and Rosberg going off sub 2/1 the pair with each way paying two spots but prices for this weekend are
Hamilton 13/8
Rosberg 5/2
Ricciardo 5/2
Verstappen 10/1
Vettel 18/1
Raikkonen 66/1
Bar 100/1
with William Hill and Bet 365 paying one fifth three places
At first glance, for those solely interested in the Mercedes battle Rosberg's price looks more interesting than Hamilton's but I am interested in Red Bull here and in this respect its informative to see both Red Bulls shorter than both Ferrari's in the betting, reflecting the potential of the car round the streets. After Barcelona the temptation is to expect Verstappen to go well again, which is likely for a wonderful natural talent that is obviously the next big thing in the sport.
However Renault is bringing a couple of new engines to Monaco, one race ahead of schedule, which it was suggested will lower lap times by 0.5s a lap. One of the engines is going to the works Renault team (where the overall package is far weaker), one to the Red Bull and it is has been added to Ricciardo's car. Red Bull is well placed in 2016 to incrementally improve the car through the season through the F1 token system and the Monaco free practices showed that a newer power unit alongside the pre-eminent Red Bull chassis on a street circuit could have a marked effect as Ricciardo topped the second session 0.6 seconds clear of Hamilton and looked hugely impressive doing so. Even allowing for likely differences in fuel levels, that's a striking performance.
Of course overtaking is nigh-on impossible so grid position in qualifying is especially important at a circuit such as this and a performance like this would have Ricciardo certainly on the front two rows, perhaps even amongst the Mercedes drivers. It is qualifying pace that is as important as race pace because, with the exception of the leading car, no car can show a true race pace in the queue that Monaco invariably produces. That engine upgrade allied to the chassis strength in slow corners makes the win a realistic shot for Red Bull here.
6 points Daniel Ricciardo Monaco Grand Prix 5/2 generally
Upping the Ante
Ante post markets in team sports with bets on whether a team is going to win a league or event that is usually going to be held well in the future are something that bookmakers love to post and take action on. There’s a pretty simple reason for that as bookmakers do well on these markets for obvious reasons as a lot can happen in the months between placing a bet and the end of an event or season and assessing value is difficult.
Of course there is always the exception to the rule, now forever to be known as the Leicester at 5,000/1 event, but even those events have their upsides in PR, future customer behaviour (trying to find next season’s equivalent) and the money collected on the shorter priced losers. Most of the time though firms collect a large amount of money, use it as they want for months until the outcome of the bet is determined, and then pay out far less than they brought in.
There are some circumstances, though, where ante-post betting can make sense.
When You Might Want To Bet Ante Post
When you consider a long shot is under-rated, with prospects better than those discounted by the price. Whilst of course teams at big odds are usually big odds for a reason, there are exceptions and ante-post can be a way to lock in value. This is especially pertinent away from the highest profile markets where with imperfect information it is possible to find an angle that has been under-appreciated.
To get ahead of a potential big move. If you believe, for example, that there is a transformational move that would transform the price/prospects of side. An early Premier League example for 2016-17 has been Manchester United where the imminent arrival of Mourinho and the strong expectation that he would be joined by Ibrahimovic has seen their outright price drop from 7/1 to 9/2. On a far less likely level, perhaps the return of Ronaldo at some point would cause a bigger move than this.Usually these moves are event driven. A big signing or new manager, or a change of ownership transforming a side’s finances and the last of these can be particularly effective away from the top divisions where new information might not get discounted immediately in prices. I’ve seen it in the football league and English rugby union sides for example
To kick-start your thinking for the season. Some like to study ante-post markets as a way to start their preparations for the upcoming season. The odds give them a basic indication of what odds-makers think of the coming season, and by doing their own research they can find the situations where they agree with them or differ significantly. The areas where they differ need to be researched more, but they could represent value.
Things To Remember When Betting Ante-post
The risks are many and almost impossible to calculate with confidence. Assessing value is tough. Any amount of uncertainty increases the risk on a bet, and therefore increases the amount of return you require to compensate for that risk. Because of the complexity of risk assessment it is easy to over-estimate your edge in these bets.
Money is tied up for a long time. When you make an ante-post bet you commit your money until the bet is resolved, often weeks or months. If that money were in regular use you could bet it several times over, and as long as you are a long term winner you would have an expectation to produce profit with those bets. Since the money is tied up, though, it is exposed to risk while not earning any return. That means that there is an opportunity cost involved in future bets. You need to consider not just the return on the bet you are making, but also the lost potential return from the bets you could make if you weren’t invested in the futures bet. This opportunity cost means that you need to have an even higher payoff on your futures bet to make it worthwhile.
The ante-post market isn’t as fluid as it is for specific games and other popular short term events, so it is easy to find prices at different books that differ dramatically. If you have convinced yourself that you want to make a long term bet then you might as well maintain the discipline that you’ve have in short term betting and try to get the best price possible.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup final between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Wembley and pre-Euro 2016 warm ups begin with England v Turkey in Manchester on Sunday
- Racing, the Irish 1000/2000 Guineas at the Curragh. In the UK flat meetings at Haydock, Newmarket, Chepstow , York and Goodwood and Stratford-on-avon over the jumps
- Tennis, the last tournaments before the French Open, ATP Geneva and ATP Cote D'Azur in Nice
- Golf, USPGA AT+T Byron Nelson at TPC Las Colinas and on the European Tour the Irish Open at the K Club
- Cricket. the First test England v Sri Lanka at Headingley continues, and the final weekend of IPL9 Group matches
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership semi-finals Saracens v Leicester and Exeter Chiefs v Wasps
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
The outright previews will be published tomorrow following today's draw
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. His 2015 French Open had a spectacular +43% ROI and he is a long term winner. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip
The 2016 Nat West T20 Blast: Ante Post
The English domestic T20 competition starts once again this Friday, with group games running through to the end of July and finals day at Edgbaston on 20th August. Compared to the glitz and glamour assoicated with the T20 game worldwide, notably in the IPL and Australia's Big Bash, the T20 Blast is often more prosaic fayre with typical problems in weather and scheduling meaning it sometimes doesn't catch the imagination though these days, with the likes of Brendon McCullum, Chris Gayle, Aaron Finch and emerging talents like Mustafizur Rahman in the ranks of overseas players after the IPL finishes there is some star quality associated with the competition.
This column has had some success in 2014 and 2015 in the T20 Blast and I am going to once again try to find some value for us to follow through the summer. Firstly a quick reminder of the format
Teams are initially split into 2 divisions (North and South), each containing 9 teams, for the group stage of the competition. During the group stage (from May to July) each club plays 6 of the other teams in the same division twice, once at their home stadium and once at that of their opponents. They play the other two teams only once, for a total of 14 games each. Teams are ranked by total points, then net run rate. At the end of the group stage, the top four teams from each group enter the knockout stage.
So this is an 18 runner field. Looking at the head of the betting, we see some familiar names none of whom i would be surprised to see at Finals day
Notts 7-1
Surrey 7-1
Yorkshire 8-1
Somerset 10-1
Hampshire 10-1
Birmingham 12-1
Middlesex 14-1
Essex 14-1
Lancs 14-1
Sussex 20-1
However this isn't an 18 runner field that many of the odds compilers will have a great deal of knowledge of the less fashionable teams, playing away from the first division of the four day game and the Test grounds. It is here that i am interested and I am particularly interested in the North group (teams shown in italics above) which only has 4 teams in the top ten in the betting and generally has less depth than the South division. In principle, being in the north group is an easier qualification route to the knockout stages and from there one win and finals day awaits.
We also have to consider that it is difficult for many counties, all operating within a salary cap limiting squad sizes, to fight on more than one front through the domestic season. We've seen this in the last couple of years with the best four day side in the country, Yorkshire. There is also a pecularity in division two of the county championship this year with only one team going up with a rebalancing of the competition next year. Fewer sides in division two are going to be prioritising the 4 day game when already Essex are well clear at the top of the table and more than a win clear of six of the nine sides.
Worcestershire have made the quarter-finals in three of the past four years, and were knocked out last year by Hampshire in a rain affected match. They are an extremely competitive side in the format. One of the smaller counties, away from the big city teams, they are deeply unfashionable and thus prime territory for value betting. They are priced up as 17th of the 18 sides in this competition at 33-1. This is simply wrong because the talent in the side gives them much better prospects than that price implies. You might not have heard of Joe Clarke and Ross Whiteley for example but you would have done if they played for bigger teams. Whiteley in particular is one of the brighest T20 talents in the English game, a big hitting batsman who is a real match-winner.
For the overseas player Worcestershire have the New Zealand spinner Mitchell Santner, who went so well in the World T20 in March finishing joint top wicket taker. Now of course Worcester in May isn't the same as a cracked pitch in Nagpur but it is still a shrewd signing.
5 points Each way Worcestershire to win the Nat West T20 Blast 28/1 Sportingbet (1/2 1,2) 25/1 generally
(33-1 win only in a couple of smaller places)
For the final time...
I had hestitated to add to the reams of columns that have sought to analyse the Premier League victory of the side i support, Leicester City, this season. After all, what else is there to be said, i thought to myself? However I cannot resist.
Writing a couple of days after the final games of the season the bare numbers speak to a convincing league win:
In the 23 years of the Premier League only 3 teams have lost fewer games than Leicester did in 2015-16 (Arsenal's invincibles 0 in 03-04, Chelsea 1 in 04-05 and Liverpool 2 in 08-09). Only four previous champions have won the title by a greater margin of points than Leicester's ten point margin this season.
Yet no one is going to claim this was a vintage Premier League season in terms of quality, notwithstanding the excitement and rarity of the result for part of the East Midlands and many neutrals and the (temporary, possibly) breaking of the link between finance off the pitch and success on it.
Many of the columns have sought to back-fit the title win and attribute a good portion of the season to luck, randomness and variance. Undoubtedly there are factors that assist that type of analysis:
- An unusual simultaneous down year for the big sides, from Chelsea's calamitous first half of the season, United's problems under Van Gaal, City's inconsistencies under Pellegrini and Arsenal once more flattering to deceive
- An unusual absence of injuries for Leicester, leading to very limited need for rotation and only 30 changes to the starting XI across the 38 games (last year, Chelsea 89)
- Unexpectedly low shot on target conversion from Leicester's opponent's throughout the season, which from an analytical community viewpoint always gave the underdog's charge to the title an air of unsustainability. I myself was in this camp somewhat and wrote several times about a forthcoming reversion to the mean that never happened.
Over and above these factors though, having seen a majority of matches in person, the skill shown in various areas has gone a long way to causing the surprise result
- Tactically, Ranieri was far shrewder than many realised. The result was that a side that had 42.7% of possession across the season won the title. The trigger here was the 5-2 home defeat to Arsenal, following which game Ranieri changed both full backs. One was loaned out to a championship side and the other didn't play the position the rest of the season. In came Simpson and Fuchs who defended first and defended narrow and added with the combination of Kante and Drinkwater protecting the central areas made the side hugely difficult to break down.
- In terms of recruitment the palpable hits of attracting three of the performers of the season Mahrez, Kante and Vardy for a combined £7m, playing at Champions league type levels all season, helped level the playing field dramatically (as did similar recruitment elsewhere eg Payet/West Ham)
- Finally its impossible to quantify the effect but the back room resources put into sports science, nutrition, psychology (the team employs a sports psychologist) and analytics (each player is presented on a Monday with a file onto an ipad with each of their contributions on and off the ball in the last match, contributions of their next opponent's over the last three matches etc) appeared to convey an element of competitive advantage.
In addition with only one exception, Klopp at Anfield just after Christmas (Liverpool double marked Mahrez and defended deep) opposing coaches were extremely slow to react to what they were encountering. It was only from March onwards that sides appeared to specifically set up to limit the effect of Leicester in transition/on the counter. At which point Leicester began winning games narrowly (in part because the defensive frailties of the early season had been addressed) and with different types of goals (often set-pieces)
Next year of course things will be different. Extra games for starters, extra tactical attention from the opposition is likely too and the squad may not remain together. Of course the arrival of Guardiola, Conte and possibly the return of Mourinho into the league together with the advent of the new TV deal and the huge sums likely to be bandied around by these sides in the transfer market could well see a re-assertion of dominance by the "big four" or "big six" as we'll have to add Spurs and Liverpool into the mix.
I prefer the angle of one judge I respect who referred to future Premier League seasons as in a betting context representing a "particularly tricky each way handicap to solve" because every side in the league is going to have TV deal based revenues of £120m+ from next year, all are going to be in the top thirty richest clubs in Europe and new talent into the league is going to be dispersed across the vast majority of teams compared to the biggest teams of a few years ago hoovering up all the top talent.
Whilst that doesn't necessarily mean we should all be tucking away 1000-1 betting slips on Sunderland for 2016-17, it probably does point to Premier League betting, both weekly and ante-post, being a higher variance activity than it was in the years of big team dominance from 2003-15.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
