Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 27th-28th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Copa America and Women's World Cup Quarter finals
For Northants top bowler in recent games the "death bowler" Mohammed Azarullah has come to form and leads the overseas pro Rory Kleinveldt in wicket-taking. Azharullah has 9 wickets in 6 games, Kleinveldt 7 in 7. Willey is back of course and will be expected to take the new ball.
For Notts their top batsman so far in the competition is Samit Patel with 233 runs off 178 balls in 7 games with 4 scores of 30 or above. Batting from as high as number 4 that he has had the opportunity to face 178 balls speaks to the poor batting form of the team up top (for example James Taylor, Brendan Taylor and Steven Mullaney have little more than 100 runs each in seven games). Meanwhile in 4 games Alex Hales has 148 runs off 94 balls. Hales is the obvious pick here, because if he gets in he'll generally go on. His four scores in the competition this season are 1, 54, 86*, 7. His presence though as short as 9/4 does create some value elsewhere if the likes of Willey and Kleinveldt can get him early. Patel, as long as 6-1 in a top order short of runs is an appealing value alternative.
In terms of Notts top bowler the experienced seamer Luke Fletcher is a T20 specialist (best yorkers in the game) and has 9 wickets in 7 games. The remainder of the bowling attack, Jake Ball with 7 wickets and the spin of Samit Patel with a useful 5 wickets aside, has underperformed.
So summing up, my shortlist here across the markets on offer is as follows
Northants outright at 13/8 Ladbrokes
Richard Levi Top Northants batsman at 11/4 Ladbrokes
Azarullah Top Northants Bowler at 3/1 Coral
Samit Patel Top Notts Batsman at 6/1 Ladbrokes or Corals
Luke Fletcher Top Notts Bowler at 100/30 Corals
I think all of these look reasonable at the prices if you wanted a range of positions. The one bet for this column though is as below, taking on a short-priced favourite in Hales that offers bags of talent but priced at little value:
5 points Samit Patel Top Nottinghamshire batsman 6/1 Ladbrokes or Corals
(wouldn't take lower than 5/1)
Moore's the Merrier?
Last week at Royal Ascot Ryan Moore rode nine winners (Gleneagles, Clondaw Warrior,Washington DC, Acapulco,Gm Hopkins,Waterloo Bridge,Curvy,War Envoy,Aloft) and could have had more. He beat the mark set by Lester Piggott in 1965 and 1975 and Pat Eddery in 1989. Moore remains some way behind Fred Archer's all-time record of 12 wins which he achieved at Royal Ascot in 1878. These are rare achievements though. Six winners was enough to be top jockey for the whole meeting in 24 of the last 25 years
Understandably given his excellence, plaudits were many "Ryan was superb he's a marvellous jockey, the greatest I've ever seen" said winning trainer Aidan O'Brien. Another trainer "Ryan Moore - what can I say? He's probably the greatest jockey I've ever seen." and a commentator "Slowly but surely, Moore and O'Brien are getting like Vincent O'Brien and Piggott in the old days."
Of course purely as sports fans, Moore is brilliant to watch. The best jockey, and often on the best horses accentuated this season by his official arrangement with Ballydoyle. For the bettor though, it represents a challenge as prices often have a "Moore discount" removing value, and notionally at least creating it elsewhere in the field. Time after time at Ascot, particularly earlier in the week in the day's later races, the odds on Moore horses would plunge in part of course because "momentum" punters on course were attracted to what they were seeing and in part the firms taking avoiding action with potential liabilities on multiples etc
As Neil described in one of his Royal Ascot pieces (specifically about Dashing Star who had gone from 9/1 to 6/1 that morning )"While I love having him on my horses, I don't want to pay a big premium for that." Other punters appeared to be far less disciplined, of course and until Saturday at least, this was rewarded as daily doubles and trebles flew in.
It's a long term game though. Ryan Moore is the best jockey often on the best horses but the weight of money and increasingly artificial pricing that results is going to be a feature of future big meetings because of the experience of this Royal Ascot just as it was for Dettori after Fujiyama Crest completed the Ascot 7-timer. Therein might lie the opportunity elsewhere
With Neil's help I investigated some stats* to attempt to find corroboration for the contention that a great jockey does not necessarily equal great betting value
Moore has 48 winners from 230 rides in 2015. That is 21%, one of the highest of the top 40 jockeys. On favourites he is 29-89 for 29% (only seven of the top 40 are lower). If you had bet every one of his horses at SP for £1 you'd be down £3.69. Just as a (less fashionable) comparison George Baker with 25-107 is a jockey who is much more under the radar ( currently +£40.53 in 2015 on a reasonable sample.) and who is consistently well rated by jockey ratings services.
The only real way to measure jockeys is to looks at A/E (actual/expected), that is to measure the prices (%chance) of their rides against result and to see who gets 'more winners than expected' (an enhanced impact value type stat which can also be used instead of the ROI stat.). Moore's A/E value stat is just above average at 0.89 but it is low so you certainly have to carry on being selective if trying to find value bets from his rides.
Going back through 2011-2014 the figures are as follows
Win percentage and Profit/(Loss) to a £1 stake
2011 18% (-143)
2012 18% (-56)
2013 19% (-113)
2014 20% (-132)
2015 21% (-3)
So we can tentatively suggest that a bumper Royal Ascot and the Ballydoyle rides are increasing win percentage and reducing losses to a level stake so far in 2015 but we can better making the case that Moore horses might be priced without value than we are to suggesting that backing him blind, even with a 1 in 5 win rate, is a route to guaranteed profit.
* as at 22nd June (sources: Racing Post and FlatStats)
Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015
** outright preview due TOMORROW Saturday 27th June **
All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)
If you had bet £10 a point on all the 5 Grand Slams that Nigel Seeley has covered for Betting Emporium you would be winning £2971.30 with an ROI +18.79%
French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%
Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%
|
Wimbledon ( 29th June - 12th July 2015)
|
£50 Sign Up Here |
Bet365 - DEPOSIT £200 and get £400 to bet with at Wimbledon
Bet365 - still offer the best sign up bonus of all. If you don't have an account you need one for Wimbledon. Deposit £10 or more and get a 100% matched amount to bet with up to a max of £200. –
This is an opening bonus, stakes are returned on winners. Deposit £200 & get £400 to bet with at Wimbledon CLAIM NOW
Tennis Accumulator Bonus - Get from a 5% bonus up to a 50% bonus on tennis doubles and accumulators!
bet365's fantastic Tennis accumulator offer includes matches from all the top tournaments and events. You can earn a bonus of up to 50% if you place accumulators on To Win Match, First Set Winner and Set Betting markets for Singles and Doubles matches from any Grand Slam, ATP, WTA or Challenger Tour event, as well as Singles and Doubles matches from the Davis Cup, Fed Cup and Hopman Cup. Place a pre-match accumulator with bet365 of 2 or more selections combining matches from any of these competitions and, if successful, the relevant bonus will be added to your winnings.
The bonus will not apply where a stake has been fully Cashed Out. Where a stake has been partially Cashed Out, the bonus will be calculated based on the remaining active stake and the maximum bonus that you can receive is £100,000 or currency equivalent. Combination bets with bonuses such as Lucky 15’s or Lucky 31’s do not apply for this offer. T&Cs apply.
Open your Bet365 Account HERE
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 20th-21st June
One of the major things that sets successful bettors apart from others is their ability to maintain discipline and control their emotions.
Here are some of the emotions that can get in the way of making good betting decisions.
Fear.
There are two effective ways to avoid the fear of losing money. The first is simply to make sure that you only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose, and are fully prepared to lose. This is one of the main reasons for having a proper bankroll. By allocating a sum of money that's purely for betting purposes, you don't have to worry about losing money that you need for something else.
Secondly, you should try and ignore the monetary value of your bankroll. If you view your bankroll as a tool of the trade, you'll remove your emotional attachment to it. If you then also practice good bankroll management, you'll have no reason to fear even a string of losses.
Impatience
An important part of betting is knowing when to bet. Online especially it's very easy to bet in high volume. Placing a lot of bets can potentially bring some success, with an appropriate strategy, but it's generally much better to be selective and only bet when there's a very good reason to do so.
Many bettors suffer with impatience. The urge to place a bet, even if there's no real reason to do so, can be overwhelming. This can lead to placing speculative bets that aren't properly thought out.
Dealing with impatience can be a challenge. Before you place a bet, ask yourself why you are placing it. If you can't provide a solid answer, it's probably not a wager you should be placing.
Desperation and Greed
Most, if not all, sports bettors will have a particularly bad run of results at some point, and many will have a particularly good run of results. Sustained periods of losing can be very emotionally damaging, for obvious reasons, but sustained periods of winning can actually be just as bad.
A long streak of losses can easily lead to desperation. Desperation, in turn, can lead to betting at higher and higher stakes in an attempt to chase those losses. Chasing losses can be so tempting to try and recover some of the money that has been lost
A long streak of wins, on the other hand, can lead to greed. It's easy to feel like you can do nothing wrong when you are winning all the time, and the urge to try and win more can be overwhelming. Just like desperation, greed can also lead to betting at higher stakes..
Controlling your emotions in either of these circumstances largely comes down to discipline.
Confidence
It's not easy to develop winning betting strategies and it can be hard to stick with something that isn't generating an immediate return though, which is why confidence is so important in betting, helping to avoid second guessing every decision you make.
Getting the right balance of confidence is difficult. You have to be able to deal with a few losses without losing faith in yourself, but you equally have to be prepared to accept that you are capable of making mistakes.
Passion
Sports bettors are also of course sports fans, and this can present a problem. There's a lot of emotion involved in being a sports fan, particularly if you are passionate about a particular team or individual. This passion is part of what makes being a sports fan so much fun, but it's not so good when it comes to sports betting.
If you are an optimist, you may be tempted to bet on your team winning simply because you want them to, even if their chances aren't that great. If you are a pessimist, you might bet against your team, because you can't believe your team will get the victory you hope for. You may even decide to bet against your team so that you are happy either way
The point here is that you are making bets for the wrong reasons, which is always a mistake. It's very, very difficult to take the emotion out of things when betting on a sports event you really care about so it's best to simply avoid doing so. You'll surely find plenty of betting opportunities on events that you have no emotional involvement with.
Strong discipline will help you deal with all the potential problems that the emotions discussed above can cause.
|
Royal Ascot - Saturday 20th June 2015
|
Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015
All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)
If you had bet £10 a point on all the 5 Grand Slams that Nigel Seeley has covered for Betting Emporium you would be winning £2971.30 with an ROI +18.79%
French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%
Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%
|
Wimbledon ( 29th June - 12th July 2015)
|
£50 Sign Up Here |
Get from a 5% Bonus up to 50% on Tennis Doubles and Accumulators with Bet365 - Watch Live Tennis Online
New Customers get up to £200 BONUS - Open your Bet365 Account HERE
bet365's fantastic Tennis accumulator offer includes matches from all the top tournaments and events. You can earn a bonus of up to 50% if you place accumulators on To Win Match, First Set Winner and Set Betting markets for Singles and Doubles matches from any Grand Slam, ATP, WTA or Challenger Tour event, as well as Singles and Doubles matches from the Davis Cup, Fed Cup and Hopman Cup. Place a pre-match accumulator with bet365 of 2 or more selections combining matches from any of these competitions and, if successful, the relevant bonus will be added to your winnings.
The bonus will not apply where a stake has been fully Cashed Out. Where a stake has been partially Cashed Out, the bonus will be calculated based on the remaining active stake and the maximum bonus that you can receive is £100,000 or currency equivalent. Combination bets with bonuses such as Lucky 15’s or Lucky 31’s do not apply for this offer.
T&Cs apply.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 13th-14th June
|
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2015
|
£199.99 Sign Up Here |
Bet365 - DEPOSIT £200 and get £400 to bet with at Royal Ascot
Bet365 - still offer the best sign up bonus of all. If you don't have an account you need one for Royal Ascot. Deposit £10 or more and get a 100% matched amount to bet with up to a max of £200. – This is not a just free bet, stakes are returned on winners. So deposit £200 and get £400 to bet with at Royal Ascot. - CLAIM NOW
Channel 4 will be showing every race live so the Bet365 Price Promise and Channel 4/1 Offer will apply to every race throughout the five day spectacle -
Bet365 Channel 4/1 Offer – Back any winner on Channel 4 and get a FREE risk free bet to the same stake (Max £50) on the next race. If your risk free bet wins at 4/1 or more you qualify for another....Bet365 also have great promotions and enhanced place terms during the festival that you just can not afford to miss out on as well as best price guarantees– CLAIM NOW
Bet365 will constantly update their prices for all races shown live on Channel 4 to ensure that they offer the best price on every horse running and offer BOG (best odds guaranteed) on all races. Open your Bet365 account here
Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015
All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)
If you had bet £10 a point on all the 5 Grand Slams that Nigel Seeley has covered for Betting Emporium you would be winning £2971.30 with an ROI +18.79%
French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%
Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%
|
Wimbledon ( 29th June - 12th July 2015)
|
£50 Sign Up Here |
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th June
- Football, the UEFA Champions League Final, Juventus v Barcelona in Berlin on Saturday. International friendlies including Republic of Ireland v England on Sunday
- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom the highlight of a programme including flat meetings at Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Uttoxeter and Hexham
- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open
- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village GC in Ohio and European Tour: Nordea Masters, PGA Sweden National in Malmo
Free Tip of the Week :
After a big strategic error from Mercedes denied Lewis Hamilton a pole to flag victory in Monaco a fortnight ago, the general expectation is that he will bounce back and win this weekend in Montreal at the Canadian Grand Prix, and the best price on him doing so is 4/6. He has a superb record in the race, and only once has a team-mate out-qualified him in eight starts. The high speed, low downforce circuit is tailor-made to suit Hamilton’s driving style.
I wonder if there may be value opposing him this weekend though. Last year both Mercedes cars hit problems in Canada with Energy Recovery System ( ERS) failures. Hamilton had to retire after the knock-on loss of engine braking caused the rear discs to overheat. Abu Dhabi apart, where Rosberg had ERS failure in the final last race of last season, the Mercedes cars have been extremely reliable since.
However delve a little further and there are signs that Mercedes is having to push to keep a rejuvenated Ferrai behind. In Bahrain this year, both Hamilton and Rosberg suffered brake problems after Mercedes opted for better aerodynamic performance and pace over cooling capability. Also, brake temperatures remained a concern for Mercedes in Monaco according to Hamilton’s race radio.
In Canada, Mercedes could once more have the performance advantage to sacrifice a little pace to prevent a recurrence of brake issues. This is a race though that, more than most, tends to produce a surprise or two and heavy brake wear ( on a track mainly comprising long straights and chicanes ) tends to be a factor.
Ahead of this weekend’s race Ferrari and Honda have become the first manufacturers to carry out in-season development work on their engines. Having already made major progress since 2014, substantially closing the deficit to Mercedes, Ferrari have spent three tokens (of ten available for 2015) ahead of this race.. That in theory should allow them to put more pressure on Mercedes. It is crucial that Ferrari are close to Mercedes in Montreal to force the world champions to push hard in the race, rather than being able to control the pace and temperatures from the front.
As Mercedes tech boss Paddy Lowe said on Tuesday: "It will be interesting to see whether and how the 'balance of power' is shifted this weekend", specifically referring to how much closer the new Ferrari power unit might bring them to the Mercedes cars. The gap in qualifying has been around 7/10ths of a second recently and there should be around 3/10ths in the power unit upgrade. The gap in races has been less with Ferrari impressive on race pace and tyre wear.
For Canada, racing on the least durable tyres in the Pirelli range (soft and super-soft), we can expect Ferrari to mount a serious challenge to Mercedes in race conditions. Their superior tyre management across a full race distance may again help keep Mercedes in check, and if they do Mercedes will have to risk brake problems by being unable to compromise aerodynamics for cooling.
This combination of a track that is hardest in the area of greatest Mercedes vulnerability and the Ferrari engine upgrade makes Sebastian Vettel an interesting each-way play here. Each way terms are 1/3 the odds for a top two finish and Vettel is 8/1+ in a market with both Mercedes drivers in at 4/6 and 15/8. Of course it's still hard to look past Lewis Hamilton on any Grand Prix weekend, and a Mercedes 1-2 would not surprise but the conditions for some each-way value on Vettel are here.
3 points each way Sebastian Vettel Canadian Grand Prix at 17/2 William Hill (1/3 1, 2) or 8/1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Skybet, BetfairSportsbook
(timezones mean that prices will be down for much of friday evening until after free practice two. Qualifying is 6pm Saturday UK time, the race 6pm Snday UK time)
After England and New Zealand drew the two test series ended 1-1, next week sees a five match ODI series with games as follows:
9th June Edgbaston
12th June, The Oval
14th June, Southampton
17th June Trent Bridge
20th June Chester-Le-Street
On Paper there is a big disparity between the two sides. New Zealand were world cup runners up in February whilst England exited in the group stages. New Zealand also have had a huge advantage in mindset in ODIs, and we saw signs in the recent test series that their aggressive approach, scoring consistently at 5 runs an over, has not changed. In the Headingley test first innings scoring 350 in 70 overs, where most test sides would take 100 overs plus for that score, created 30-50 extra overs in the game for them to bowl which proved vital with the loss of play due to weather and allowed them to force a win. In the series six Kiwi batsmen had strike-rates of 60+, compared to just two for England. Essentially they were playing one-day cricket over the five day format. New Zealand are a brave side. Under the captaincy of Brendon McCullum they only play one way and their approach in the ODIs will be the same.
New Zealand are an ODI team in their prime. Looking at ODI performances in 2015 only amongst the squad we have:
Guptill 786 runs in 18 innings at 49
Williamson 641 runs in 15 innings at 49
McCullum 608 runs in 17 innings at 35
Taylor 554 runs in 17 innings at 42
Anderson 441 in 15 innings at 34
In the bowling ranks
Boult 30 wickets in 15 games at 20
Anderson 25 wickets in 16 games at 21
Southee 24 wickets in n13 games at 28
All play in the upcoming series, supplemented by the likes of specialists Elliott and Ronchi.
All this is in contrast to England’s squad. Major players are rested, with one eye on a very crowded schedule and upcoming ashes, including Anderson, Broad, Bell and Moeen Ali. In its favour the squad is full of talent. Supplementing the experience of Morgan, Buttler, Root and Finn are some of the most explosive players around the county scene. Hales, Roy, Billings, Willey are all match-winners and point (finally) to England adopting a more modern approach to the ODI game
It is a huge task to ask a young team to overcome New Zealand here though. The probability of questionable weather shortening games gives them a chance of course but the advantage in such home conditions is likely to be negated by the skill of Boult and Southee with the swinging ball.
All this helps explain why New Zealand are a prohibitive 1/2 to win a five game series.
Coverage of the Investec Derby and Oaks
If you have subscribed to anything at all on Betting Emporium since launch then your user account has automatically been set to free for the 2015 Derby write up this weekend, due to be published for 10am Saturday by Neil.
|
Investec Derby and Oaks 2015
|
£50 Sign Up Here |
Royal Ascot 16th-20th June 2015
The full five day Royal Ascot package featuring all of Neil Channing's analysis and details of the bets that he is having is £199.99
|
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2015 |
£199.99 Sign Up Here |
If you are new to this site and have not subscribed to anything before you will get the Derby and Oaks for free if you sign up to Royal Ascot.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.37% (1210 bets) (at 28th May 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£6283.80
May 2015 was Brodders' 3rd best month on record
May 2015 pts bet 1468 profit 202.29 ROI +13.78%
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,380.10 (as at 28-05-15)
All bets have an ROI +3.31% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 30th-31st May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup final between Arsenal and Aston Villa on Saturday
- Racing, on the flat at Chester, Newmarket, Haydock, York and Chepstow and over the jumps at Stratford-on-avon
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the French Open
- Golf, USPGA Tour: AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, at Las Colinas, Texas and European Tour: Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Royal County Down GC.
- Cricket, the second Test Match, England v New Zealand at Headingley
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership final between Bath and Saracens
Free Tip of the Week :
Defending champions Arsenal attempt to retain the FA Cup when they play Aston Villa on Saturday
In previous all Premier League cup final ties, league position at the end of the season has proved a decent indicator of likely success. In 75% of these finals, the highest placed team emerged as outright winners and that trend is expected by odds-setters to continue in this game with Arsenal best priced 4/7 and Aston Villa 6/1 to win in 90 minutes.
Recent finals have been close though. Arsenal needed extra-time to beat Hull City last year and each of the previous seven finals have been decided by a single goal. Perhaps reflecting the importance of the game, of all Premier League contested finals only 29% contained over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes. Five of the seven finals at new Wembley have seen under 2.5 goals and only one, last year’s, over 3.5 goals
Would we expect these trends to continue for this game? Perhaps the easier side to analyse is Arsenal, who over the 2014-15 season scored 1.89 goals per game and for whom in an era of Chelsea/Manchester City domination of the Premier League the FA Cup represents their best chance of silverware. After poor results towards the back end of the season, the form of Walcott and Wilshere in the 4-1 victory over WBA speaks to the strength of depth they have going into this game
Aston Villa are an interesting side to assess. In terms of the bare statistics, the most glaring comparison between Lambert’s Villa and Sherwood’s version appears in the shooting, goal scoring and conceding data. Overall, Lambert’s Villa scored just 26% of the total goals in their games, while taking only 43% of total shots and 38% of shots on target. Sherwood has raised these overall percentages and all three numbers are above 50% during his 13 Premier League matches in charge.
For the season overall Villa scored 31 league goals their lowest ever in a single season. However over Sherwood’s 15 games (with seven wins and a draw) Villa have scored 24 goals, for an average of 1.6 goals a game. Under Lambert in the 24 games in 2014-15 before he left, only12 goals and no less than 15 games in which they did not score
So on the 15 game sample size we have to go at we can see a real change in approach which has seen the introduction of the talented Grealish and the reinvigoration of Benteke, for whom the Cup final may be his final game for the club.
Now all this is not to say that Aston Villa are necessarily value for the game overall but it does suggest that this game may buck the trend of low-scoring finals. In terms of player markets Benteke has scored 12 goals in his last 12 games for Villa, all since Sherwood arrived (three goals in 21 games before that). The whole side plays through him and aims to create chances for him.
Bet365 offer first goalscorer odds and, which is the especially interesting component of the proposed bet, 1/3 the odds each way unlimited places to score anytime. Of course the price reflects that Benteke plays for the underdogs, but the each way part of the bet to score anytime looks very good
5 points each way Christian Benteke First goalscorer in the FA Cup Final 17/2 Bet365 (each way 1/3 the odds unlimited places)
Betting Discipline
Betting discipline is the ability to handle the inevitable losing runs, and to only place bets when you feel you have an edge. Fun Bets or Interest bets are the downfall of many otherwise profitable gamblers, placing bets that don’t meet normal criteria for a ‘value bet’. It could be a bet on Monday night football just because it’s on TV, even though you have no strong fancy, or it might be a bet on a race at Wolverhampton while you’re waiting for your main bet to run at Newmarket. These type of bets are a drain on, and could even eliminate, the profits you make from your main bets.
Some punters follow a similar line every day. They might go to their local bookies, or sit and watch the racing on TV, but the general policy will be to back a horse for interest in most races. Most punters don’t have the discipline to wait for the bets they think they have an edge with. Having a bet in every race is fine but only if you can find a bet you believe to be value. If you have four or five strong bets for the day and dilute them with numerous fun bets all your good work in coming up with the value selections will be wasted by your lack of discipline.
if you want to be a consistent long term winner than you have to have the temperament and discipline to knock those ‘fun bets’ and bets that don’t meet your price criteria on the head. No matter whether you only bet when your price criteria is met, or if you just bet for fun, you should always get the best price, which means opening as many accounts as possible
There are punters who normally only place bets where they feel they have an edge, and while they could be successful long term; a losing run can often be enough to derail their attempts to make a living from the game. Just because you make money long term doesn’t mean there won’t be periods of short term losses. How you react to these set-backs is vital to your continued success. More often than not the losing run will fall within an entirely expected sequence of results. It’s vital to analyse your results to determine if the results are just due to bad luck or perhaps some variable that might have changed which could explain your lack of success. If however after this analysis you can’t find any reason for the downturn and the results experienced fall within what might be expected in an unlucky period then stick with it, don’t chase losses and don’t lose discipline by backing in areas and at prices different than your normal methods
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (24th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley
Daily match bets in both the mens and women's tournaments and ante-post bets
All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point
|
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (24th May - 7th June 2015)
|
£50 Sign Up Here |
Coverage of the Investec Derby and Oaks
If you have subscribed to anything at all on Betting Emporium since launch then your user account has automatically been set to free for the 2015 Derby and Oaks write ups.
|
Investec Derby and Oaks 2015
|
£50 Sign Up Here |
Royal Ascot 16th-20th Jne 2015
The full five day Royal Ascot package featuring all of Neil Channing's analysis and details of the bets that he is having is £199.99
|
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 16th - 20th June 2015 |
£199.99 Sign Up Here |
If you are new to this site and have not subscribed to anything before you will get the Derby and Oaks for free if you sign up to Royal Ascot.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +3.81% (at 28th April 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4925.30
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,380.10 (as at 28-05-15)
All bets have an ROI +3.31% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
