Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur.
- NFL Week Twelve of the NFL regular season includes the Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos on Sunday night football
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Newbury (featuring the Hennessey Gold Cup), Bangor, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the All-Weather Wolverhampton.
- Golf, the World Cup of Golf in Australia.
-Cricket, the third India-England test in Mohali begins. The third Australia-South Africa test match in Adelaide.
-Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue with England v Argentina, Ireland v Australia, Wales v South Africa and France v New Zealand
- Formula One, the final race of the season, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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India v England Third Test Betting Preview Mohali, Saturday 26th November 4am UK time start
The third test in the five match series begins in the city of Chandigarh in the Punjab tomorrow morning. India won in Vizag to go 1-0 up.
After England drew the first test the path of the second test match was much more as expected before the series. India won the toss, made 450 and England’s top order batted disappointingly. Once they were all out 200 runs behind India’s total the game was pretty much up on a pitch that deteriorated and helped the Indian spinners as the game went on.
On the fifth day, needing to bat 90 overs plus to save the game, England capitulated as their defensive techniques against spin proved insufficient.
Mohali will be another tough test for the visitors, with India having won five of the last six tests they have played there and drawn the other. One of the best batting pitches in India, traditionally, winning the toss is absolutely vital for England and if not, batting far better in their first innings crucial as on the sub continent there is rarely a way back from a big first innings deficit. Looking at the pitch from videos and reports in the 48 hours before the game its very dry, slightly cracked and it could be a case of “win the toss, bat and win the match”
In the last test match at Mohali, Indian spinners took 19 of the 20 South African wickets to fall in their victory. Such is the disparity for this match in the spin attacks and the way both of these batting line ups seek to combat spin that it would have been a major surprise if the pitch was not dry and cracked this time too.
India are likely to be unchanged after their win. England replace Duckett with Buttler and Broad and Ansari are injured meaning recalls for Woakes and Batty.
Odds for the game are as follows
India 8/13
England 7/2
Draw 9/2
Much like the last test 8/13 India is in the realms of being backable, I would have them 1/2 or shorter if they win the toss and no worse than fairly priced if they don’t. The draw being the outsider of the three options in 1-2-x markets reflects that this is a pitch not expected to last 5 days.
Looking at sub markets and performances in the two tests so far
top England batsman
So far in the series Stokes 233 runs Cook 207 runs , Root 206 runs
top India batsman
Kohli 337 runs Pujara 262 runs Vijay 167 runs
Top England bowler
Rashid 13 wickets Ali 7 wickets Broad 6 wickets
Top India Bowler
Ashwin 11 wickets, Jadeja 6 wickets
Injuries permitting, I would expect Rashid and Ashwin in the bowling ranks and Kohli in the batting to continue to lead the way with the England batting line up too competitive to bet with any confidence in any given innings. There is always the possibility that a batsman at 6 or 7 tops the scoring charts for England and that makes it a tough market to bet
The stand out bet for me in the match is Adil Rashid top England bowler at 5/2 generally but a stand out 100/30 with Skybet. Compare that to having to take 5/4 about Ashwin in the comparable Indian market.
For England conditions won’t suit Anderson and Woakes with the new ball or Stokes at first change and Batty isn’t going to run through a side at this level. I would see the main threat as Moeen Ali (second favourite in the market at up to 4/1) but Rashid has taken a step forward this series and is the biggest wicket taking threat England have in conditions that don’t suit them as a team
9 points Adil Rashid Top England bowler (1st innings) 100/30 Skybet (5/2 generally, we’ll record at 5/2)
Polling and Populism
It’s the 1st January 2017. President-elect Clinton is setting up a meeting with Prime Minister Miliband, who is going to travel to Washington after an EU budget meeting for the period 2017-2022. At which point I woke up.
All three outcomes above (Labour, Remain, Clinton) were odds-on in betting markets and firm favourites in pre-event polling. With all losing the past eighteen months have left the reputation of pollsters badly dented. Failure of the polls in Britain led to calls for regulation. There is talk they should be abandoned altogether in favour of alternative sources of data, or that time would be better spent going to speak to people whose views are not captured by polling companies. Above this high profile polling failures allow another reason for “experts” to be pilloried, as is the current vogue through sections of the media and the populace.We are we are told, in a “post-fact” era. Pollsters and pundits opining on polling trends are another elite to be put back in their place.
Polling is getting harder. Electorates are undergoing substantial changes with voters becoming more volatile and more detached from the parties that they have traditionally supported. In the US there is a growing new majority of millennials, racial minorities, immigrants and secular people creating a fast-moving target for pollsters from election to election.
First the Brexit/US Election comparison.
- In the case of Brexit, the polling picture was mixed. Telephone polls showed a clear lead for Remain, online polls showed a tight race, with leave often ahead. Our media expected Remain to win and wrongly focused only on those polls that agreed with them, leading to a false narrative of a clear Remain lead, rather than a close run thing. Some polls were wrong, but the perception that they were all off is wrong, it was a failure of interpretation.
- In the case of the USA, the polling picture was not really mixed. With the exception of one LA Times poll all the polls tended to show a picture of Clinton leading, backed up by state polls also showing Clinton leads consistent with the national polls.
How wrong were the US polls? Clinton won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College. That doesn’t get the American pollsters off the hook though: the final polls were clustered around a 4% lead for Clinton, when in reality it looks about 1.5% (equivalent to over 2m votes). More importantly, the state polls were often a long way out. Polls had Ohio as a tight race when Trump won by 8 points. All the polls in Wisconsin had Clinton clearly ahead; Trump won. Polls in Minnesota were showing Clinton leads of 5-10 points, it ended up on a knife edge.
Errors were not evenly spread across the battleground states. In states with a comparative high proportion of white voters without a degree, Trump’s share of the vote was underestimated the most. Errors in state polling contributed to over-confident predictions of the outcome by poll aggregators.
Clinton suffered from a disappointing turnout among Hispanics, African Americans, single women and millennials. Clinton’s total vote fell well below Obama’s in 2008 and 2012. The other change voters, the white men without a degree, did their part too. Concentrated in rural and smaller towns in the rust belt, they became even more consolidated in their support for Trump and turned out to vote in unprecedented numbers. Trump won a huge 49% lead and 72% of the vote among this group.Finally within the non-college-educated white women group Trump won by 27% despite all the publicity about his attitudes to women, a 9% bigger margin than that achieved by Romney in 2012. Late turns across these three segments of voters allowed Trump to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by a percentage point, overcome a loss in the popular vote and win the electoral college.
For pollsters across the world landline penetration is falling, response rates are falling and it seems likely that the people willing to take part in polls are less representative than previously. In the UK our samples seemed to be skewed towards people who were too educated, who paid too much attention to politics, followed the news agenda and the political media too closely. Those with little interest in politics were under-represented in samples and several UK pollsters have since started sampling and weighting by that to try and address the issue. Were the US pollsters to be shown to suffer a similar problem one can easily imagine how it could result in polls under-representing Donald Trump’s support, and so it did.
Polls still provide us with valuable information, if we can accept that they sometimes may be off by a matter of a few percentage points. In close races, these margins of error matter and make political betting markets difficult especially when the “wisdom” of the betting crowd is not formed from those voting most for change. In all three recent “polling errors” the UK General Election, Brexit and the Presidency the result was within margins of errors but in the latter two events especially the trend to “change” and “populism” was not adequately captured.
In the US, Trump and Clinton had the highest unfavourable ratings of any presidential candidates ever. This alone should have suggested that normal rules might not apply, or that the behaviour of voters would be less predictable than usual. Thanks to late swings, so it proved and so began another polling post-mortem.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League returns after the International Break including Manchester United v Arsenal.
- NFL Week Eleven of the NFL regular season includes the Arizona Cardinals at the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles at the Seattle Seahawks.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock (including the Betfair Chase) and Huntingdon, and on the All-Weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Golf, the Dubai World Championship and on the USPGA Tour the RSM Classic at Sea Island.
- Cricket, the second India-England test in Visakhapatnam continues.
- Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue with Ireland v New Zealand, Scotland v Argentina, France v Australia and England v Fiji amongst the games
- Rugby League, the Four Nations final between Australia and New Zealand at Anfield
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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A look at Sports Personality of the year. Neil asked me to take a look at the market for Sports Personality of the Year, this year taking place in Birmingham on Sunday 18th December.
First a look at the processes behind the award. A panel of thirty sports journalists each submit a list of ten names. The ten names that feature most frequently are on a shortlist that is published at the beginning of December and the vote itself is a public one, with voting open (online and telephone) only on the night itself during the programme.
The size of the potential vote has decreased from its recent peak which was 2012 and London Olympics Year when Wiggins won with 492k votes and Murray needed 200k votes to finish 3rd. Whilst the size of votes for the winner have held up (2013 Murray 401k, 2014 Hamilton 209k and 2015 Murray 361k) it has taken far fewer votes to make the places since 2012 (third place votes 2013 57k, 2014 99k, 2015 79k)
The demographic of likely voters is a consideration too. The show is on a Sunday evening on BBC1 and, slightly subjective on my behalf this, the demographic is middle class, middle aged and more female than you’d find on Sky Sports say. While there have been winners from sports like Boxing, I have long thought it an advantage for those on the shortlist to have had some terrestrial TV exposure through the year, ideally on the BBC. The voting system is vulnerable to regional campaigns mobilising a vote. For example last year the retiring Rugby League player Kevin Sinfield finished second with 278,000 votes with campaigns in Yorkshire beforehand to get the vote out.
This year of course was the year of the 2016 Rio Olympics and we should expect Olympians to form a good part of the shortlist.
My back of fag packet ten name list was as follows:
Murray
Brownlee
Laura Trott
Bale
Farah
Skelton
Whitlock
Kenny
Joshua
Peaty
Eight Rio competitors there and no room in my list for Froome or Hamilton, for example.
Andy Murray is an overwhelming favourite to win his third SPOTY award. Just before winning last year he led Great Britain to the Davis Cup. Since then he has reached the Australian Open final, his first French Open final, won his second Wimbledon, won Olympic Gold again, won seven ATP titles and risen to World Number One in the era of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.
Murray was 8-1+ for this award before Wimbledon and 6-4+ before Rio and went odds on before the number one spot was confirmed. He is currently twos-on and I thought he probably should be shorter again. Before I had the chance to take a deep breath and sense check with Neil he told me that he thought Murray could be fours-on in his opinion. We don’t look to put up really short ones in this column, certainly not six weeks out from settlement, but for those who like a short one, 1-2 is too long we think.
Second favourite is Alistair Brownlee at 4-1. His price was steady in double digits after he won his second Olympic triathlon title in Rio, the first man to do this and then plummeted in September after the Triathlon world series event in Mexico where he stopped 700 yards from the finish to help his brother, who had been leading but was suffering from severe heat stroke, finish the event thereby giving up a potential win for himself.
This is the sort of sportsmanship story that the viewers will lap up as the Mexico event moved beyond the rather specialist confines of the triathlon community onto the main news and into the public consciousness. It also helps with this viewing audience that the Brownlees are very nice boys and furthermore there are already regional campaigns (they are very Yorkshire) to get the vote out. In my mind, Brownlee is likely to finish second to Murray.
That leaves us with the rest of a likely shortlist to consider given that in several places (BetVictor, Ladbrokes and, ahem, BoyleSports) we can get three places one-fifth the odds with the rest of the market two places one third (which doesn’t offer much to go at with the front two 1/2 and 4/1)
At the time of writing the market shape is as follows (using best price at BetVictor or Ladbrokes)
Murray 1/2
Brownlee 4/1
Trott 10/1
Farah 12/1
Bale 20/1
Joshua 33/1
Whitlock 33/1
Kenny 40/1
Skelton 40/1
Hamilton 80/1
Ennis-Hill 100/1
I am going to narrow this down and try to find an each-way play for the night. I am going to exclude the following:
Farah – Didn’t make the top 3 (100,000 votes off 3rd) when he won the 5000-10000 metres Olympic double in 2012.He repeated the feat in 2016 but against a more controversial backdrop (coach, training regime). Never felt the public has particularly warmed to him
Joshua – Won the IBF World Heavyweight title in April and would have been a very live contender (a charismatic, popular fighter) if the Klitschko fight had gone ahead in December as originally mooted. As it is, that fight postponed into next year counts against him for this year’s award
Kenny. With three gold medals in Rio (one individual, two team), Kenny is the joint holder of the highest number of Olympic Golds for a British Athlete with 6 alongside fellow track cyclist Sir Chris Hoy. Couple of things count against him in that he quite clearly couldn’t give a toss about awards (sensible man) and is a low profile sportsman in PR terms whereas the new Mrs Kenny, Laura Trott, thrives on the exposure.
Whitlock. During the Rio Games, he first won a bronze medal in the all-round gymnastics event, which was Great Britain's first medal in this Olympic event for 108 years. Days later he won the gold medals in the Men's Floor and Men's Pommel Horse events, becoming his country's most successful Olympic gymnast, and its first Olympic champion in Gymnastics. The question here is the low general profile of a comparatively minor sport with the voting public.
Skelton. At Rio at the age of 58 won the Individual show-jumping gold medal at his seventh Olympics and very emotional it was too. Very nearly made my each-way shortlist, except for the minority nature of the sport (which nonetheless fits at least some of the voting demographic)
Hamilton. At the time of writing he is odds against to retain his F1 World driver’s title with one race to go next weekend. In an Olympic year he can’t win this unless he wins the title and even then it’s no guarantee. Won it in 2014, but didn’t win it on the other two occasions he won the title. With F1 off the BBC the “petrolhead” vote is not what it once was. Instinctively I am pre-disposed not to put my hard earned on anyone who chooses to preserve his bulldog’s sperm for posterity anyway.
Ennis Hill. Retired after winning silver in Rio. High profile popular sportswomen but with Olympic achievement so high this year shouldn’t feature. Might not even be in the short-list
So I have narrowed down my short-list to Trott or Bale
Laura Trott. With four Olympic gold medals, having won both the team pursuit and the omnium at both the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, Trott is both the most successful female track cyclist in Olympic history and Great Britain's most successful Olympic female competitor in any sport at the age of 24. Charismatic, popular and genuine has been in the spotlight a lot since Rio because of her wedding to Kenny. Very very active on social media.
Gareth Bale. The on-field driving force in Wales’ run to the 2016 European championship semi-finals, with three goals in the finals. One of Great Britain’s few world class footballers, playing for the biggest side in the world Real Madrid. Hasn’t previously featured in the SPOTY places but is going to be there or thereabouts this year given the Welsh performance in the Euros. Could attract a nationalistic Welsh vote.
Trott or Bale is a close run thing (probably for third in the voting) in my mind. I am going to recommend Bale at double the price of Trott, a marginal preference but thinking the "Olympic block" vote on the night will get split while the Welsh vote isn't.
6 points each way Gareth Bale BBC Sports Personality of the Year 20-1 each way 1/5 1,2,3 BetVictor (18/1 Ladbrokes)
Goal!
Through the first three months of the 2016-17 Premier League season the current top four teams have all averaged more than two goals a game. The goals-per-game ratio so far this season after 110 games is 2.78 (Opta.) The highest over a Premier League season is 2.81 in 2011-12.
So far this season we’ve seen Chelsea lose 3-0 at Arsenal then, subsequent to moving to three at the back, beat Manchester United 4-0 and Everton 5-0 at home. Arsenal lost 4-3 at home to Liverpool whilst Leicester (admittedly not the side of last year minus Kante) have shipped four goals at both Anfield and Old Trafford. The season has seen two 6-1 results too.
What are the factors that might be causing these unusual scorelines, with one sided matches between the bigger sides?
Firstly more teams are taking an attacking approach to each game. Far fewer teams,even those towards the bottom of the table, set up (or are incapable of setting up) to frustrate their opponents away from home. Yes, we see occasional trademark Mourinho away performances at big teams and the likes of Pulis attempt to keep clean sheets first but the prevailing tactical fashion for high-pressing to turn the ball over quickly means games can be quite one-sided.
I have seen this watching my own side, shorn of the brilliant Kante, continuing to press but this season be pressed far more themselves. On losing possession the defensive midfield is not of the quality it was and the protection offered to the back four far less solid. The result away from home has been conceding a lot of goals. A potential solution, to play the extra midfielder and drop a wide or attacking player has so far not been favoured.
Pressing tactics are in vogue. Liverpool top the table and are excellent to watch, with Klopp’s high press being executed far more consistently than it was last season. They have scored 30 goals in 11 games, four more than the next highest, Chelsea, but have also conceded 14 goals, more than one a game. When Chelsea won the league in 2004-05 they conceded only 15 goals in the whole season. After 11 matches in that season a decade ago Arsenal were the only team to score more than two goals a game.
I wrote at times last season about the changing financial landscape in the Premier League in the new TV deal, where even the teams finishing near the bottom of the table were guaranteed TV income of over £100m pa, and how this was broadening out the spread of talent coming into the league, rather than as previously it being concentrated in a handful of clubs. Perhaps this is being reflected in the tactical approaches of the “smaller” teams in the league.
Two weeks ago Watford, who under Flores last season played a rigid two banks of four with barely a creative midfielder in sight and were very tough to break down, with Deeney in behind Ighalo creating a fifth midfielder when they were without the ball, went to Anfield. Before the game the rhetoric from Deeney was interesting, clearly indicating that they were going to Anfield for a positive result. New head coach Walter Mazzarri played Deeney right up top. Watford went behind and didn’t change approach, remained quite open and chased the game. They lost 6-1.
At the same time Crystal Palace played at Burnley (a stone cold “unders” spot last time Burnley were in the top flight in 2014) and set up to attack. They went 2-0 down and fought back to 2-2. It’s Alan Pardew, he would normally be expected to batten up the hatches take the point and head south job well done. Instead they searched for the winner, and lose in the 94st minute on the counter. Palace have scored 16 goals in the league this season and are 16th place.
Finally we have to consider the standard of defending (and defensive midfielder) where in general terms the standard of player does not match their attacking counterparts. Chelsea have had bids of £60m for Koulibaly and £40m for Manolas rejected by Napoli and Roma respectively, whilst a £60m move for Bonucci is oft mooted. It shows that defenders are at a premium and Conte for one wants to strengthen at the back. For now Chelsea can compensate for the risks involved in playing Luiz in a back four by changing system, but not all clubs have that flexibility in managerial approach.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Betting Emporium results
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£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. World Cup Qualifiers with the Premier League on International break including England v Scotland on Friday night.
- NFL Week Ten of the NFL regular season, includes the Seahawks at the Patriots and the Cowboys at the Steelers.
- Racing includes Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby over the jumps and Lingfield and Wolverhampton on the all-weather
- Golf, on the European Tour the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa and on the USPGA the OHL Classic in Mexico
- Formula One, the penultimate race of the season the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Cricket, the first India-England test in Rajkot continues while Australia play South Africa in the second test in Tasmania
- Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue with England v South Africa, Scotland v Australia and Wales v Argentina amongst the fixtures
- Rugby League Australia v England in the Four Nations tournament on Sunday at the Olympic stadium.
Free Tip by Neil Channing
The BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase Cheltenham Saturday 2.25pm
The "Mackeson" is what I shall call this week's big race the current and former sponsor seem to have both stopped speaking to me. It's a fantastic betting race from a punters point of view as we have 19 runners which means four places is massive +ev on the place part of our bets and we have protection from a couple of non-runners ruining things. If we are lucky enough to get a bet with any of the firms offering 5 places or even 6 then that is a fantastic bonus and a great offer. Throw in the fact that the favourite is way too skinny and comes from a stable that is out of form and we must bet at least a couple of horses.
Generally what we are looking for is a horse with Cheltenham form, I'll look at ones that raced at the Festival last year and if they stay a bit more than the 2m4f that would help as we all know that Cheltenham is a stiff track where stamina really helps but also the ground conditions looked testing for the Friday aces after rain fell this week on ground that has been watered.
I'm going to ignore the favourite on the grounds of price and stable form, I'll also rule out Potter's Cross, who is out of the handicap although his stable is going better and we know he stays, Tenor Nivernais goes well fresh and might be interesting it there was proper overnight rain but not so much on good to soft or good, Thomas Crapper is lovely but just a little too consistent to be well handicapped although the stable had a Friday winner, Vintage Vinnie is an interesting outsider who definitely stays further and comes from a stable in better form but who possibly is a little out of love with the course, Aso probably wants it softer and isn't that well handicapped, Ballynagour is fairly handicapped and in better form but in absolute terms it's a lot of weight to lug round, Annacotty would like more rain and although he loves it round here this would need a career bets for a horse with plenty of miles on the clock, Buywise is extremely annoying, just flatters to deceive too often although conditions ought to suit, both Sizing Platinum and Sizing Granite may not have the stamina for this and Taquin du Seuil is another Jonjo horse and he probably wants more rain.
There were a couple in that lot that might have me swearing a little at 2.35pm but I think the winner will be coming from the next lot...
Stilletto was favourite for the equivalent of this race at the Festival and fell. I think he wants a bit more cut though and the move from Paul Nicholls can't be a positive.
Village Vic was amazing last year and he ended up running in the Ryan Air at the Festival. The way he improved is the reason he carries so much weight here though and it's a tough ask.
I've backed Art Mauresque a few times and it's drifted a lot and run poorly on softish ground. If it didn't rain it would still require a career-best and with anything looking like good to soft or soft it may not run.
I'm quite a big fan of Frodon who keeps winning and improving but this must surely be a big ask and the price is very short for one that hasn't got the solid profile of an each-way bet, feel like it might win easily or finish last.
Bouvreuil beat Double Shuffle over this trip at the Festival and could easily do so again. If I was having three bets I would back him and if I could get 6 places I would have at least three bets. Paul Nicholls says he is fit and ready for this and he ought to be in with a shot.
Double Shuffle was beaten 4.5 Lengths by Bouvreuil and that could easily happen again. I like Double Shuffle though as I think he is improving, we know he is fit after a nice prep run and he goes on any ground plus his stable is flying. Just looks very solid.
Paul Nicholls is in great form too and one of his other runners is As de Mee. He gets the excellent Sean Bowen on board, he won a prep race impressively, any ground is fine, he stays and he has run Ok here although he can just jump a little right. Hard to see him being out of the four.
I'm having 7 Points each-way Double Shuffle at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Hills and Betfair Sports or 9/1 1/4 123456 with VC Bet.
I'm having 8 Points each-way As de Mee at 9/1 1/4 1234 with Corals or even better 9/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 or 8/1 1/4 123456 with VC Bet.
Chicago, Chicago
In the last six Rugby Union Autumn International series, the southern hemisphere sides have won 40 Tests and lost 11 matches. This year's month long series of matches began last weekend.
Conventional wisdom, over and above the general and consistent superiority of the Southern Hemisphere sides themselves over the Six Nations teams is that the timing of the Autumn Internationals favours the Rugby championship teams, who come into the games battle hardened towards the end of their season and after a series of tough games (for all bar New Zealanders, losing to the All Blacks). Meanwhile these are the first Internationals of a new-ish season for the Northern sides. For some, notably Welsh players playing for teams not involved in the European champions cup, they’ve had no top level rugby since the summer.
Given the terribly below par performance of Wales last weekend, conceding 5 tries and losing to Australia 32-8, the conventional wisdom might well have been seen as having some traction. Indeed the Wales interim coach Rob Howley implied as much in interviews after the match. Over and above this though the tactical approach looked disjointed (possibly coinciding with the absence of coach Warren Gatland nine months out from the Lions tour) and with their key players Sam Warburton, Alun Wyn-Jones and Talupe Faletau all out injured a small pack won no ball and showed little pace around the pitch. Normally Welsh teams can be relied upon to defend well but here too Wales were found wanting whilst in attack we were once again promised a more expansive approach which the Welsh did not deliver.
The “conventional wisdom” was well and truly torpedoed only a few hours later when Ireland produced a heroic performance to beat New Zealand 40-29 in Chicago, ending the All Blacks' record 18-match winning streak and recording its first victory over the world champions in 29 Tests spanning 111 years. Ireland were 16/1 underdogs pre-game
The Irish, inspired by the death of their former forward Anthony Foley last month, held off an All Blacks fightback after leading 25-8 at half-time and edged the try count five-four at Soldier Field to seal a famous win showing huge. physicality at the breakdown, an influential set piece and accurate decision-making from the peerless Johnny Sexton
Ireland, whose best result in 28 previous games against New Zealand was a 10-10 draw in 1973, had come close to ending the drought in Dublin in 2013, conceding a converted try at the death that allowed the All Blacks to win 24-22.The teams meet again in Dublin in a fortnight after New Zealand visit Italy and Ireland host Canada this weekend.
This weekend England enter the fray, having won all nine of their games under head coach Eddie Jones, including a 3-0 series whitewash of Australia in June, and they will face South Africa, Fiji, Argentina and the Wallabies at Twickenham in November and December. Unfortunately they don’t play the All Blacks this series, the RFU baulking at the NZRFU’s £2m appearance fee.
England have not beaten South Africa for 12 matches, since 2006, but the home side have done so well in the past year and the visitors are in such a mess, in all respects from their structure back home, their recent record of four Test losses from five, their quota-affected selection to their tactical confusion, that there seems only one result possible and England should win. This is despite a long list of injuries. England will be missing seven players from their Grand Slam side of nine months ago with Haskell, Itoje, Kruis, Watson, Nowell, Clifford and Tuilagi all out but such is their strength in dpeth that the line up chosen is strong and experienced.
It would be a disappointment if England do not go through the four games unbeaten given their progress under Jones and the various issues afflicting the Southern Hemisphere sides. They are 10 point favourites against South Africa to start this autumn series of games. Perhaps Argentina will be their toughest challenge.
Also this weekend Scotland, at times a fast developing side from the 2015 RWC onwards without necessarily getting the results to prove it, host Australia against whom they narrowly lost the world cup quarter-final whilst Wales are 8-13 favourites in Cardiff, this time against Argentina who as 7/4 underdogs are probably the most interesting betting proposition amongst the games this weekend despite the return of Warburton and Wyn-Jones for Wales
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
NFL 2016 - regular season
Through week 7 of the regular season and we are showing a profit of over 60 points with an ROI +7.7%
We have discounted the cost for the remaining regular season to £75. Sign up here today so that you can access Week Eight's write up and bets.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 5th-6th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Arsenal v Tottenham on Sunday. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
-NFL Week Nine of the NFL regular season, includes five divisional match-ups including the Denver Broncos at the Oakland Raiders at the top of the AFC West.
- Racing includes Doncaster and Chelmsford City on the flat and Aintree, Kelso, Wincanton over the jumps
- Golf, on the European Tour the Turkish Airlines Open and on the USPGA the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin
- Rugby Union, the start of the Autumn Internationals, Wales v Australia and Ireland v New Zealand
- Rugby League New Zealand v Australia and England v Scotland in the Four Nations tournament
Free Tip by Neil Channing
The No Fun League?
A few weeks ago I wrote about declining ratings (-11% year on year in the US through six weeks) for the NFL during the current season and postulated some reasons why that might be so.
In an internal memo dated 6 October and obtained by media outlets, two NFL executives floated an explanation.
“There is no question that unprecedented interest in the Presidential election is impacting primetime ratings - this was clear when Monday Night Football went head to head with the first presidential debate on 26 September”
“The effect of the presidential election on NFL ratings has been seen before: in 2000, during the campaign between George W Bush and Al Gore, all four NFL broadcast partners suffered year over year declines.”
The NFL game scheduled against last month’s first presidential debate was down by 40% compared with the game at the same time last year. For the second debate, which had a lower audience, the NFL’s viewership declined by 20%. Part of the short term problem here for the NFL and other US sports is that Trump/Clinton has transcended news and became must watch “entertainment”.
More subjective is the impression that while politics may dominating this year, the NFL’s storylines are less enjoyable than usual. Particularly during the prime time match ups chosen there has been no compelling game. Meanwhile in the NFL there are a lot of stories off the field that are not favourable such as domestic violence scandals, inept officiating, and a concussion problem but it could be argued now that the NFL itself is contributing to its own lack of buzz, for example in a clampdown on social media clips of key plays and on the field in penalties for celebrations, which are popular with fans.
With the possible exception of the New England Patriots including the ageless Tom Brady and the sensational Rob Gronkowski there are hardly any stand out teams either. No teams remain undefeated. In five of the eight NFL divisions only one team has a winning record.
Players seem disgruntled too, something the Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman addressed this week in a post on the Players’ Tribune: “TV ratings are down, and I think we can point to the NFL legislating the emotion out of the game as a contributing factor,” Sherman wrote. “The NFL is enforcing a policy against celebration. Against joy. Against fun. It’s something I know a lot of players are frustrated with, and it appears that fans may be as well.”
In the short term the effects of these issues combined are being reflected in Vegas betting volumes on football too with September volumes lower than the previous year following a modest decline in 2015 volumes compared to 2014.
In the US ESPN’s subscriber base has fallen from 99 million in 2013 to an estimated 89.5m last summer, and Fox Sports 1 and NBC Sports Network also trended downwards. In the UK, ratings for some Premier League and Champions League soccer games have recently fallen by between 20-40% with broadcasters arguing that this is a blip with logical explanations, such as matches with limited appeal rather than a sign that the competitions have peaked.
Of course, it’s possible that scenarios specific to this season have exacerbated a trend that says more about subscription television overall in an ever more fragmented media environment with a variety of ways to watch matches. Some evidence in this comes from NBC who recorded 933,000 unique streams of the Cowboys-Eagles SNF game last weekend, 84% up on the week 8 sunday night game the year before
While total audiences regardless of platform are still down, increased online viewership is the counterpoint to lower TV viewers. By the time the current broadcasting deals expire, that is likely to have accelerated further and will impact how the NFL, Premier League and other sporting bodies distribute their sports in the future. In a media market where prices have been pushed up by bidding wars there may be a time when rising costs and decreasing returns create a point where the both the shape and numbers of sports rights deals no longer make sense.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
NFL 2016 - regular season
Through week 7 of the regular season and we are showing a profit of over 60 points with an ROI +7.7%
We have discounted the cost for the remaining regular season to £75. Sign up here today so that you can access Week Eight's write up and bets.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Tottenham v Leicester on Saturday and Southampton v Chelsea on Sunday. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
- NFL Week Eight of the NFL regular season, includes the Philadelphia Eagles at the Dallas Cowboys.
- Racing, includes Newmarket and Chelmsford City on the flat and Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby over the jumps
- Golf, the WGC – HSBC Champions in China. On the US Tour the Sanderson Farms Championship in Missisippi
- Tennis, ATP Erste Bank Open in Vienna aned ATP Swiss Indoors in Basle
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City.
- Cricket, England playing Bangladesh in Dhaka in the Second Test.
Free Tip
Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 5pm)
Time to have another go at the NFL touchdown markets. I leave all outrights, points spreads, totals etc to Neil in his weekly subscription column and try to spot some value in the higher variance player markets.
First a quick reminder of the criteria I wrote a few weeks ago
“When looking at First touchdown scorer markets we ideally want to see three things:
a) We are backing a player on the home team
b) We are backing a favoured team
c) There is an element to the offense/defense match up that suggests a mismatch in the relative strengths and weaknesses of the sides.
Just to expand on point a), why would we favour the home team player? Whilst it is not always the case, away teams will frequently defer if winning the toss and allow the home team to get the ball first. For two reasons a) the crowd is at is loudest at the start of the game so it can be difficult to run an offense and b) they then get the ball to start the second half when i) you have first chance to put in place the half time adjustments and ii) the crowd can be at its quietest before everyone gets back to their seats”.
In essence, I think the home team should usually get the ball first, and if it is against a bad defense, you can then “stock pick” a likely player given the strengths/weaknesses of the match ups against that defense. In this match all the criteria apply. We are going to be looking at Tampa Bay players, a home team that is marginally favoured (though the lien has moved towards Oakland) and there are elements of the match up that led me to look at this match in detail in the first place.
Firstly the Raiders. At 5-2, they are tied for first place in the AFC West. The Raiders have the second-best record in the AFC behind only the Patriots and have the second-best record in the NFL. Oakland has been a perennially bad team but bad teams lead to good draft positions and several very good drafts in a row have led to an influx of talent that has made them competitive. Being a poor team in one year also leads to a softer schedule the year after and here Oakland have benefitted this season. Oakland has won three of its five games by a combined 5 points, with wins over the Saints, Titans, Chargers, Ravens and Jaguars who have a combined record of 14-23. That said for a team that had only won 2 of its last 24 away games, four road wins all travelling into the eastern time zone is impressive.
Oakland are a very one sided team, with the offense carrying the team to these wins. The run defense has been the second-worst unit in the league while the pass defense is only slightly better, ranking 28th. Add them together and you get the league's fourth-worst defense -- better than only the Colts, Lions and Saints.
Of particular relevance to this match up, the Raiders have allowed seven 100-yard games to opposing Wide receivers. In the running game their defense is bottom five in yards per carry allowed (5.0) and yards per game allowed (128.3).
Tampa Bay are an inconsistent team but in some ways mirror the path to recovery being undertaken by the Raiders. Years of being in the doldrums, high draft picks and an influx of talent which has primarily had an impact on the offensive side of the ball with Quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans, both top ten draft picks in the last three years.
It is Evans that I am particularly interested in here. He leads all Wide Receivers across all NFL teams with 32% of His Team’s Targets so far this season. He has been targeted 75 times through six games this season, and he is on pace for a career-high 200 targets. He is only one target shy of league-leader T.Y. Hilton, despite playing one less game. Evans also leads all wide receivers with 6 touchdowns. The veteran wide receiver who played across from Evans, Vincent Jackson, is on injured reserve, Since Evans came into the league in 2014, he has averaged nearly 13 targets a game with Jackson out and 8 a game with him in. In the passing game, without a good tight end or receiving back (Charles Sims also on injured reserve) and minus Jackson, Evans is the only target in town.
Evans leads the league with 34 “clutch receptions” through seven weeks (ahead of Julio Jones, AJ Green etc), clutch receptions being catches for first downs, in the red zone and for touchdowns. This isn’t surprising. He’s 6-4, got a huge catching radius and is a big mismatch for most defenses, assuming Winston gets him the ball accurately, which in some weeks is quite the assumption unfortunately.
The alternative to the passing game is the running game and here in the absence of the still injured number one running back Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers has 35 & 27 touches through his last two starts. Those 35 touches led to 129 rushing yards against the Panthers two weeks ago and then 27 for 163 against the terrible run defense of the 49ers last weekend. This is certainly another good match up.
I couldn’t put you off having both and backing Rodgers at 8-1 but we're getting a couple of points longer on Evans for a single bet here
7 points Mike Evans First Touchdown Scorer Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Oakland Raiders 10-1 William Hill (there will be a wider range of prices/firms up on Saturday)
The CMA Enquiry into Online Betting
The Competition and Markets Authority is investigating whether online gambling companies are treating their customers fairly. This is potentially a big story for the industry with long term implications for customers and operators. Some have even speculated that were the enquiry to find against the bookmakers, it would be as big as PPI was for the banks with claims companies involved
The launch of this investigation follows concerns raised by the Gambling Commission about potential breaches of consumer law. The CMA has conducted an initial review of complaints information and a number of gambling firms’ promotions and terms and conditions. The investigation is to determine whether the CMA will tackle unfair or misleading behaviour in the industry.
Nisha Arora, the CMA's senior director for consumer enforcement said in a press release:.
"We've heard worrying complaints suggesting people may be lured into signing up for promotions with little chance of winning because of unfair and complex conditions."
The CMA went on to highlight the following areas of concern
- Being locked into complex and strict requirements linked to gaming promotions that are difficult to understand and may be unachievable. These can include terms that require people to play for longer than they had bargained for before they can withdraw money. The CMA is also concerned that players may not be able to withdraw what remains of their deposit, and any winnings, when they want to stop playing.
- Companies having a wide discretion to cancel bets or alter odds after bets have been accepted, because they made a mistake when the odds were first set. The CMA is investigating whether the terms operators rely on in cases such as this are fair.
- Terms restricting players’ ability to challenge a firm’s decision, for example by placing very short time limits on making a complaint or inaccurately suggesting that other means of redress are not available.
Many readers of this column will find these sorts of concerns familiar. The CMA will presumably hear from a lot of bettors about free bet terms, Sign up bonus withdrawal requirements, withdrawal limitations and timeframes and the holy grail of them all, bet restrictions
The CMA has advertised a link on which the betting public can contact them with experience of these sorts od issues. They can be contacted on Gambling@cma.gsi.gov.uk . They request that respondents should state clearly in the subject line of an email whether the information relates to sign-up promotions, altered odds or cancelled bets, or terms that restrict the ability to claim.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
NFL 2016 - regular season
Through week 7 of the regular season and we are showing a profit of over 60 points with an ROI +7.7%
We have discounted the cost for the remaining regular season to £75. Sign up here today so that you can access Week Eight's write up and bets.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
