Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League games include Chelsea v Liverpool. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has just been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup, The final between New Zealand and Australia on Saturday at Twickenham, written up here

- NFL Week Eight games. Sign up for week Seven coverage here

- Racing, Breeders Cup weekend at Keeneland, Kentucky (see below, free tips) on the flat at Newmarket and Wolverhampton, over the jumps at Ayr, Ascot and Wetherby

- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City

 - Golf, European Tour: Turkish Airlines Open in Antalya, Turkey and on the USPGA Tour: the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

 -Tennis, ATP Valencia Open 500 and the ATP Swiss Indoors in Basel.

- Cricket, the third Test between Pakistan and England in Sharjah begins on Sunday

i-Pools

Free Tips of the Week (Neil Channing)

One of the best things about the Breeders Cup is that the firms go 1/4 123 on all races even though they are stakes races and many are suited to 1/5th 123. It would be rude to not disappoint them and take advantage and there are basically two bets I like where I think we get really good value on the place while having a reasonable win bet.

 The Juvenile Fillies takes place at 4.05pm our time and it's pretty much a four horse race. The favourite Songbird could easily win and she ought to be close to evens but I'm going to play each-way against her. The first of the two I considered but ruled out were Tap to It, a filly who got a bad ride last time versus Rachel's Valentina and who tempted me at a good price here for a 2nd bet in the race. I decided to keep it simple but it was close. The one I ruled out more easily was Nickname who may take on the favourite for the lead. I hope these two might set it up for a closer, I like my each-way bets to be closers rather than front-runners generally as the ones that blast out can fade very quickly once they lose the lead. The only downside at this track is we are faced with a sharp track and a short run-in. I'm going to bet the bigger-priced of the big two here and take Rachel's Valentina who just seems solid to at least get a place.

 I'm sticking with the females by looking also at the Fillies and Mare's Turf (6.10pm our time). This race has a short-priced and admirable favourite in Legatissimo ridden by Ryan Moore. again I wouldn't be surprised if she won but I'm again calling this a not very deep field, I think only three or four can win. Secret Gesture has done the whole travelling thing and has a great trainer but she may not quite be up to this class. Queen's Jewel was a short-priced favourite for the French Oaks and if Freddy Head has sorted some of the issues she's had this year she'd be a great bet here but there are lots of question marks and that means she isn't a solid each-way bet. Stephanie's Kitten is knocking on a bit and although she has decent form I'd guess she will be slightly outclassed here. Dacita has run and won just one race, it wasn't at this track, over this trip or in this class...I couldn't bet her each-way.

 The one for me is Miss France. The 1000 Guineas winner from 2014 is trained by the master Andre Fabre. She was nowhere near right before the Prix Daniel Wildenstein and there was talk of her being prepared for this. She comes here fresh at the end of what has been a long season for some of these fillies and I think she is just plain solid.

Juvenile Fillies 4.05pm: I'm having 6 points each-way Rachel's Valentina at 4/1 or bigger 1/4 123.

Fillies and Mare's Turf 6.10pm: I'm having 8 points each-way Miss France at 7/1 or bigger 1/4 123

The racing industry bites back

Bookmakers who do not pay levy on their digital operations will be barred from taking out new sponsorship deals on most races and festivals under  new rules to be introduced by British racing.

Jockey Club Racecourses (JRC) and Arena Racing Company (ARC) , which operate half of the racecourses in Britain and almost 60 per cent of fixtures, will not enter new commercial agreements with firms who do not pay the levy or an agreed equivalent on their digital business. Existing deals will be honoured but not renewed. There will be significant negatives for firms that still refuse to contribute, including a ban on new sponsorships at any course run by JCR or ARC.

The tracks in the JCR portfolio includes most of the sport’s most famous venues, such as Cheltenham, Aintree and Epsom. ARC, meanwhile, operates racecourses with more than a third of the racing programme, including racecourses include three of the country’s all-weather tracks.

All racing turnover on offshore internet sites is beyond the reach of the statutory Levy system, which has returned money to the sport from high-street betting shops for half a century. As more betting turnover moves online, the BHA estimates that the sport is currently losing £30m annually as a result of the "haemorrhaging" of levy income, a figure that can be expected to increase in future years.

Simultaneously the BHA, in conjunction with the Racecourse Association and Horsemen's Group, has announced the creation of the designation 'authorised betting partners' for bookmakers who "have a fair and mutually sustainable funding relationship with the sport", a press release said.

Bookmakers who enter into what is deemed a fair and mutually sustainable relationship will receive the official designation 'Authorised Betting Partner' and in time it is hoped this will be visible via a Kitemark in publications.

They will also be privy to a full package of benefits which as well as the right to sponsor could include the likes of racecourse data, wifi, preferential rates for digital streaming and perhaps importantly, the ability to reposition fixtures. The new designation will be introduced on January 1.

Three firms have already attained partner status - 32Red, bet365 and Betfair – as they pay the levy voluntarily on their digital businesses or in Betfair's case have a commercial deal in place.

However, Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill, despite having paid an additional voluntary contribution of £4.5 million between them over the last year, will have to make further commitments to become authorised partners but the sums they pay are well short of the 10.75% paid via Levy on their onshore cash business.

The policy announcement said the levy could fall to a forecasted £53 million by 2017-18, from more than £105 million in 2004-05, if no action is taken.

BHA chief executive Nick Rust said: "British racing offers world-class sport, gives enjoyment to millions of people a year, employs over 85,000 people and contributes £3.4 billion a year to the economy.

"But we are underfunded and loopholes in the horserace betting levy system, allowing the majority of betting operators to make no contribution from profits made on British racing through their digital businesses, continue to play a large part in that."

The large independent racecourses that are not under the Jockey Club or ARC's umbrella which include York, Goodwood, Ascot and Newbury also issued a statement supporting a "collaborative and future-proofed approach to racing's relationship with the betting industry aimed at delivering an appropriate merit-based return for racing."

It went on: "The racecourses concerned remain committed to working with others in racing, betting and Government to find a long term, sustainable and fair system for funding the sport. The Large Independents within the Racecourse Association are open to exploring how commercial relationships with bookmakers might be developed going forwards, including with preferred partner arrangements, and look forward to those discussions."

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

Brodders football analysis is flying this month winning over £1500 (£10 pt) & ROI +17.1%

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League games include the Manchester Derby. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has just been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup, Two Southern Hemisphere Semi-Finals on Saturday and Sunday. Both written up here

- NFL Week Seven games. Sign up for week Seven coverage here

- Racing, on the flat at Doncaster, Newbury and Chelmsford City. Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso

- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin, Texas

 - Golf, USPGA Tour: Shriners Hospitals For Children Open, TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas and European Tour: Hong Kong Open.

 -Tennis, ATP Erste Bank Open in Vienna, ATP and WTA Kremlin Cup in Moscow and the ATP Stockholm Open.

- Cricket, the second Test between Pakistan and England in Dubai

i-Pools

Free Tip of the Week

On Sunday afternoon at Wembley Stadium (2.30pm on the BBC) the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills play the second of the three NFL International Series games this year. The 1-5 Jags are 5 to 6 point underdogs in the game to the 3-3 Bills in a game with an expected points total of only 42.

My main focus on the sub-markets is here is on the Bills, a side being built by combative head coach Rex Ryan as a defense led team and lacks a range of offensive weapons. The offensive co-ordinator Greg Roman is making the most of what he has got. For this game the Bills are missing their starting quarterback, their top two wide receivers, Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin, whilst impressive rookie running back Karlos Williams is out too. Big free-agent signing LeSean McCoy is in his second game back from a hamstring injury too and has yet to produce consistent performances.

At first glance then a team missing much of its offense and with an expected points total for this game of 23 might not be expected to be fertile betting ground. However the Bills do feature one of the most under-rated tight ends in the league in Charles Clay whom they acquired from the Dolphins in the off-season. Only six tight ends across the league have piled up more yardage than Clay. Clay sits behind only Martellus Bennett of the Bears in receptions among tight ends. Clay leads the Bills in targets and in the five games he has been fit this season averages over 60 yards per game. He is the one of only two players in his position in the league to have multiple games on the season with at least 30 percent of his team's targets (the other, Greg Olsen of the Panthers). With all the offensive skill position injuries, he will be the Bills lead option and this has been seen in the last five weeks where he has been targetted 4 (week 1), 6, 7, 13, 13 (week 6) times. He should be good for 12-15 targets on Sunday and 6-8 receptions. He averages over 10 yards per reception this season.

Against him is a Jaguars defense ranked 27th in the league that stops the run well (ranked 6th) but is poor against the pass (ranked 31st). Delving further into the league wide stats, I note that in fact it ranks 30th of 32 NFL teams in defending passes to tight ends, only ahead of the Seahawks and the Saints.

To summarise we have a consistent player in an offense shorn of weapons against a defense that struggles to defend the pass generally and his position in particular. I am going to split this three ways:

3 points Charles Clay first touchdown 11/1 SkyBet

6 points Charles Clay anytime touchdown 11/8 Skybet

Furthermore, if the prop line is 60 Yards or less, I will have 11 points Charles Clay receiving yards at circa 10/11

edit 9.45am Sunday:

11 points Charles Clay over 58.5 yard yards receiving 20/23 Coral

Accumulators

You will rarely find a professional bettor incorporating accumulators in their betting strategy. The reasoning behind this is simple, it is difficult enough to find a winner let alone have to find more than one in the same bet, where the chances of success smaller with every added event. For the recreational bettor of course accumulators have an allure, for a modest outlay you can have a chance of a significant return

Most people that bet realise that the odds are stacked heavily in favour of the bookmaker. The question is how much is it stacked in their favour?

Let’s say we have a 2-way event (under / over 2.5 goals) and chances for each outcome to happen are 50%/50%. Bookies will never offer you 2.00 / 2.00 odds for that, you will get mething around 1.83 or so 1.90. 1.90 instead of 2.00 means that bookies took 5% of odds as juice or vig. What if you place a double? You should get 2.00 x 2.00 odds but you will get, for example, 1.90 x 1.90, so instead of 4.00, you are being offered 3.61 This is 9.75% juice Now think about a fourfold and you will understand why most professionals bet on singles. the profit margin increases in the bookmaker’s favour the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Adding games together compounds negative expected value

In the long run the bookmaker will pay out less than it receives in bets as it has a mathematical advantage over the long term. That’s why bookmakers love the Saturday afternoon armchair accumulator punter and its exactly why we should avoid these type of bets as the odds are literally stacked against you.

Bookmakers want you betting in multiples. The vast majority of “bonus offers” are based on multiple bets “Stake refunded if one game lets you down in a fourfold” etc. These promotions dominate bookmakers websites.

Occasionally of course a punter somewhere will win on an accumulator. Funnily enough this is good news for the bookmaker, who then PR the win (paid out of profits built up since the last big win) through their various channels and attract new customers who will place similar bets in the coming weeks and months

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

Brodders football analysis is flying this month winning over £1500 (£10 pt) & ROI +17.1%

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League returns after the international break including Tottenham v Liverpool and Everton v Manchester United. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has just been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup, the Quarter finals on Saturday and Sunday. All written up here

- NFL Week Six games. Sign up for week Six coverage here

- Racing, on the flat at Ascot (QIPCO British Champions day), Catterick Bridge and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford-on-avon

 - Golf, European Tour: Portugal Masters in Vilamoura and The 2016 PGA Tour season starts with the Frys.com Open in Napa, California.

 -Tennis, ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters in China and on the WTA Generali Ladies Linz in Austria, the Tianjin Open in China and the Hong Kong Tennis Open.

- Cricket, the conclusion of the first test between Pakistan and England in Abu Dhabi

i-Pools

Free Tip of the Week from Neil Channing:

The QIPCO Champions Sprint Race Group 1 (1.20 Ascot Saturday) has a nice big field running over six furlongs on good to soft ground. The field is pretty easy to split into those who mostly run in handicaps, who are a little older and mostly exposed and those that have limited but impressive form in this Group 1 level.

  I'm going to focus on the classy improvers and benefit from a decent shape of race for each-way bets at 1/4 123 and an excellent shape for 1/4 1234 which is there with a few firms.

 The favourite Muhaarar seems to have found his ideal trip and appears to be perfectly capable at this level. A solid favourite and hard to beat but there is nothing in the way of an edge at the prices. It wouldn't be certain that he'll like the ground particularly if it gets any softer.

 The Tin Man is definitely improving, the stable of James Fanshawe is having a great run and does well here at Ascot and this animal was really impressive when winning here last time. It hasn't got any Group 1 form though, or indeed any form at all outside of handicaps. It's also never been on soft ground. It's definitely possible the ground dries right up tomorrow but right now I couldn't possibly bet this one at the prices.

 I do sort of like Danzeno who goes well here and will like the ground but who probably doesn't have the class of some of these.

 The two obvious young improvers that I could back are the other Charlie Hills horse Strathburn who ran very well from a bad draw when 2nd at Haydock in a Group 1 won by Twilight Son. This one has a decent chance to be in the frame and can easily win. A must for a saver.

 My main bet will be Twilight Son though. Before he beat Strathburn in that Haydock Group 1 there was a doubt as to whether the horse would be capable of jumping straight into Group 1. I was pretty impressed by the win and Henry Candy's improver can definitely handle the soft ground and this trip. I'm so happy with this four places that I'll have a go.

 I'm having 4 Points each-way Strathburn at 9/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred and Sky Bet.

 I'm having 6 Points each-way Twilight Son at 5/1 with Ladbrokes Betfred and Sky Bet.

One of the most commonly complained about aspects of betting is bookmakers' willingness to put restrictions on punters' betting accounts. Exactly how willing the bookmaker is to restrict accounts varies between firms but for many of us these are an everyday fact of our betting lives.

Why do we get restricted?

We enjoy having lots of accounts as it ensures we can get best price on all their bets so it can be very frustrating to see accounts heavily restricted or even closed down. Although the official reason for restrictions is nearly always 'trading decision', here are some of the most common reasons accounts get shut down.

Arbing

Bookmakers hate arbers. If you've been using an account for "genuine" betting and then you switch to arbing it can be easily flagged. A horse racing punter suddenly having a large bet on a darts match for example will stick out like a sore thumb and that account won't last long after that. If you open an account and start arbing straight away it also won't take long for bookies to spot your patterns and restrict you.

Backing Market Movers

Bookies don't like punters to generally get much better odds than the eventual starting price and if you are doing so regularly you'll often be flagged up as an unprofitable customer or an arber (even though you might not be arbing). Bookies that offer odds on horse racing the evening before can be far more likely to restrict horse racing punters as there is more scope for those bookmakers to have offered 'the wrong prices' on their early bets.

The industry has changed

The large bookmakers increasingly employ mathematicians and risk managers, rather than those knowledgeable about sport, to ensure that they maximise profits – and have no chance of losing money. Firms are run not by the risk takers of old. Even 15 years ago, the boards of most big operators were packed with people who had started out as settlers or shop managers. Now  there has been a distinct change in outlook at the major firms as the internet has eaten into their margins, as it has in so many businesses with firms run by a different type of manager, with a different focus..

Bets the bookmakers like and don't like

Bookies love multiple bets, this is why they offer so many enhancements and money back specials for these. Any type of bet involving more than one outcome gives you less chance of winning. Even if you have a few wins off these bets the bookies will generally cut you some slack as they'll believe they'll win off you in the long run.

On the other hand, singles, bad each way bets (each way bets in races where there is a short priced favourite giving punters a great chance of profiting from the place market) and each way bets on relatively short priced selections are amongst those that bookies don't like, and won't cut you much slack even if you are losing.

Winning

If you are making consistent or large profits eventually your accounts will be restricted and closed whatever your bet types. Different bookies will generally allow you to win different amounts and how quickly your accounts are restricted will often depend more on some of the above factors than the actual amounts you win.

It has to remembered that bookmaking is a business so we can see why they want to restrict big winners and their terms and conditions allow them to do so at any time. refusing to strike a bet at their advertised odds may break the spirit of the regulations, but it does not break any law.

However, more and more bookmakers only want to accept bets from “mug punters”: those without discipline who bet far too much almost every day of the week and consistently lose more than they win. 

We are in a time when monitoring customers is very easy for bookies. Technology clearly can benefit our betting, it helps us see where to get best prices for example, but what benefits technology brings are matched by the information it gives the bookmakers and restrictions now simply have to be considered one of the hazards of betting.

Although there has appeared little prospect of bookmaker behaviour changing (the frustrations of the gambler are going to be low down the list of priorities for any regulatory body) there is of course every growing frustration by the firms customers. Bookmakers make the rules, set the odds hugely in their favour and, with all these advantages and having already made healthy profits, they then increasingly refuse to take a bet. Is it any wonder that so many punters feel they are getting a raw deal?

One of these Alex Salmond, the former First Minister of Scotland and a keen punter and race-goer, has said that he intends to raise the issue of bookmakers refusing to take bets from winning punters in his new role as vice-chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Racing & Bloodstock.

“It is not acceptable for bookmakers to refuse to take a reasonable-sized bet because the client has a record of winning,’” he said. “If it is not a breach of advertising standards, then it should be. Bookmakers today simply don’t want to take any risks.

“In my new role, I intend to bring this to the attention of the Gambling Commission [which regulates gambling in the UK] and Ibas [the Independent Betting Adjudication Service, which rules on disputes between punters and bookies]. There is a difference between bookmaking, an entirely respectable profession, and fleecing people, which isn’t.

“Maybe it is time that the distinction was made harder in terms of the law. There is a difference between being risk-averse and being responsible for misleading advertising. An unreasonable refusal to accept bets should, in my estimation, be a reason for disqualification from a bookmaker’s licence.”

A spokeswoman for the Advertising Standards Authority, the advertising watchdog, in response to this said it had received more than 250 complaints so far this year about gambling advertisements, but she did not think any related to punters’ grievance about being restricted from placing bets.

Ibas said its primary role was to adjudicate on bets that have been struck. A spokesman said it would require a change the industry’s regulations, such as forcing bookmakers to accept bets of a specific size on advertised bets, before it could address complaints relating to restrictions on the size of bets.

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League International Break for Euro 2016 qualifiers. England play Estonia on Friday night and Lithuania next week

- Rugby World Cup, the final weekend of pool games including Wales v Australia and Ireland v France to decide Pool winners. All written up here

- Rugby League, the Super League grand final between Leeds and Wigan

- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi

- NFL Week Five games. Sign up for week five coverage here

- Racing, on the flat at Newmarket, York and Chelmsford City, over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham.

 - Golf, The Presidents Cup in Incheon, South Korea and the British Masters at Woburn.

 -Tennis, WTA China Open and ATP China Open in Beijing and ATP Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships in Tokyo.

i-Pools

Free Tip of the Week :Russian Grand Prix Sunday 11th 12pm

In the last five races of the 2015 season, Sebastian Vettel has amassed exactly the same number of points (83) as Formula 1 world championship leader Lewis Hamilton with two wins, a second and a third place in those races. Meanwhile Nico Rosberg has 52 points over those five races.

For the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi this weekend Lewis Hamilton is 4/7 favourite, Nico Rosberg 11/4 and Sebastian Vettel 8/1. Each way terms of 1/3 1,2 are widely available.

One of the key issues through the 2015 season has been the tyre compounds used for the various races. It has become evident that the super-soft diminishes Mercedes’ advantage over the field. This was clearest in Singapore where Pirelli brought the soft and super-soft compound tyres to a slow speed, low degradation track. Mercedes were simply not able to get them into the correct operating temperature range as Ferrari and Red Bull managed and were off the pace.

Generally the Mercedes advantage is greater on tracks where the harder Pirelli compounds are used. So in Silverstone, for example (on medium tyres) the Mercedes was 1.1s ahead of Ferrari in qualifying. More recently in Suzuka two weeks ago where the harder compounds were raced, Mercedes was again well clear

Earlier in the season Pirelli brought the super-soft and soft tyres to Monaco, Austria and Canada. In Austria on super-softs the gap to Ferrari was just 0.355s, in Canada it was 0.621s to Raikkonen so if Vettel had not had problems it would have been more like 0.3s and in Monaco it was 0.751s (before the Ferrari got qualifying modes on the engine).

The betting opportunity for this race is that the same super-soft and soft tyre choice will be in Sochi this weekend. It has been relatively close everywhere this season on those tyres between Mercedes and Ferrari.

This week Paddy Lowe, Mercedes’ executive director said that “ Pirelli’s decision to bring its super-soft tyres to Sochi this year, as opposed to the medium and soft tyres used in 2014, will introduce an element of uncertainty for the race”.

Mercedes non-executive chairman Niki Lauda has been quoted this week too, fearing his team could suffer a Singapore-style blip in form at this weekend's Russian Grand Prix due to the smooth track surface in Sochi.

Last year the flat, sterile Tilke designed track which races around the winter Olympics site was criticised for being processional, and the fact that Rosberg was able to run almost an entire race distance on a single set of tyres after a very early pit stop underscored the relative ease with which the drivers were lapping.

The nature of the track surface in Sochi led the teams down the one-stop strategy route as the very low roughness in the tarmac meant that everyone had a lot of grip on race day as more rubber was laid down as the weekend progressed. Comments this week suggest that the track conditions have not changed. Furthermore Sochi is humid, and at the margin that suits the Ferrari more than the Mercedes as it reduces the window in which Mercedes can get those super-softs working.

So bringing that all together:

• on recent form Vettel matches Hamilton on points, and has beaten Mercedes twice in the last five races
• The tyres that minimise the Mercedes advantage, and which saw the most recent Vettel win, are being used again this weekend
• Sochi is a low degradation track and conditions set to be humid, both help close the advantage to Mercedes
• Vettel is available at 8/1. Hamilton is 4/7.

6 points each way Sebastian Vettel 8/1 (1/3 odds, 1,2)

A salary cap sets the maximum amount that a player plying his trade in a particular sport can be paid. This limit is set by the governing body of the sport requiring all teams to sign up to the regulations. Once teams have signed up they will only be able to pay their players a specific maximum amount. Consequently teams will have to provide their financial figures to the governing body to rule out any possible wrongdoing.

The use of a salary cap can be seen in England in both forms of Rugby – Union and League – and is a key component of all sports in America and also Australia.

The main reasons behind fixing a salary cap on a particular sport are as follows:

• To ensure the financial fitness of the entities taking part in that sport
• To guarantee the supposed fairness of the competition.

As clubs will only be able to pay players a certain amount of money in wages then their maximum expenditure will be cut thus reducing the losses that they can potentially make. One of the current problems surrounding English football is that when wealthy businessmen are in ownership of some of the clubs they will not only pay huge amounts of transfer fees to other clubs to secure the services of a player they will also use vast amounts of money in wages as a bargaining tool to tempt those players to sign for their club over other clubs.

Another argument often put in favour of introducing a salary cap is that it will increase the fairness of the competition, for example the current position is that some clubs have huge sums of money meaning they can tempt any player to play for them. As other clubs do not have this much money they simply cannot compete in the transfer market. If the ability of the big clubs to tempt these players was removed as they cannot pay the huge wages then it may enable more clubs to bid for the services of the payers making the league in theory more competitive.

The MLS (Major League Soccer) in America runs a salary cap system whereby all players are on a certain wage but then clubs also have the ability to breach the salary cap in relation to two players – this is the reason why LA Galaxy were able to sign David Beckham. The NFL is probably the pre-eminent example of a successful salary cap. It helps talent be evenly distributed across the league, and a competitive balance where any one team can go from losing to winning one week and one season to the next.

A salary cap may work in theory to ensure the fairness of competition and to reduce the possibility of football clubs going bust but there are a number of reasons why this would not work in English football. They are as follows:

• The discrepancy between English football and the rest of Europe
• The structure of football is already set
• Problem of policing the system
• Possibility of the league becoming less exciting

If English football teams were unable to pay the huge amounts of money in wages but the equivalent teams in the other leagues around Europe were able to do this then many of the big stars (English included) would choose to ply their trade in the other leagues in Europe where they can still play top-flight football and earn the money which they feel they deserve. As a consequence the big name players would not be attracted to come and play in English football which would certainly be to the detriment of the English league. This is a problem that English rugby Union has, where some players opt to play in France, without a salary cap and are currently excluded from consideration from the national team as a result.

Football in England has been operating in the same way for years. The system may have been changed slightly since the introduction of the FA Premier League and the huge sums of money the successive TV deals have brought in but the basic structure remains the same. Furthermore, the FA Premier League has been operating for over 20 years and to change it now would be extremely difficult. Consequently, if it was introduced in one league it would have to have a knock-on effect across all leagues in Europe and arguably the world. This form of new regulation is something which FIFA (the World Governing Body of football) would be reluctant to do.

The issue of competitive balance is one that English football grapples with operating without a salary cap and with disparities in the financial resources available to the top teams compared to the rest. It could be though that the sheer sums involved in the new TV deals are helping level the playing field. Clubs like Crystal Palace, West Ham, Swansea and Leicester are now in a position to compete for top European talent whether that be in fees or wages and this could be making the top half, if not ultimately the top four, of the Premier League more competitive.

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League weekend includes Arsenal v Manchester United and Everton v Liverpool. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup Games over the third weekend include England v Australia and South Africa v Scotland, all written up here

- NFL Week Four games. Sign up for week four coverage here

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton and jumps at Fontwell Park

 - Golf, European Tour: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews, Carnoustie & Kingsbarns

 -Tennis, ATP Malaysian Open in Kuala Lumpur and ATP Shenzhen Open in Hong Kong.

i-Pools

Free Tip of the Week :

This weekend sees the first of the three NFL International games at Wembley this season. On Sunday at 2.30pm (on BBC1) the Miami Dolphins play the New York Jets in the first ever NFL divisional game to be played overseas.

For subscribers, Neil Channing will be covering the game in his weekly write-up but i wanted to focus on a couple of sub-markets in the game. So far this season the Dolphins have had a major achilles heel in the performance of their defensive secondary. Part of this is because a much vanuted and expensive defensive line (including Suh, Wake and Vernon ) has not sacked the quarterback, and quarterbacks with time will pick apart the back end of defenses, and in part it appears to be just a simple lack of talent at NFL level. Watching last week's game, receivers were running by the cornerbacks.

So far this season Miami have conceded passing yards as follows. None of the teams they have faced have high octane offenses or quarterbacks in the top echelon of the league

Week 1 Washington 188 yards, one touchdown

Week 2 Jacksonville 277 yards, two touchdowns

Week 3 Buffalo  289 yards, three touchdowns. 49 passing attempts!   

Overall Miami have conceded six passing touchdowns, tied for fourth most in the league through three games.

The Jets are a team built on one of the strongest defenses around (through the first three games of 2015, the Jets defense ranks No. 1 in points allowed ) and in recent years their rushing attack. This year the attempt is to be less one-dimensional and open up the passing attack more, with teams still having to respect their running game which means one on one match ups on the outside. The injury to starting quarterback Geno Smith in training camp actually helped accelerate that process as his replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is experienced with a big arm. He's inconsistent, and thows interceptions but he keeps throwing. In their loss to the Eagles last week (when they went behind and had to try to catch up) he threw 58 times

One of the key reasons why the Jets have a few ways to win games now is the off-season recruitment of a number one receiver in Brandon Marshall. Marshall is talented but high maintenance. He has had four teams in his NFL career and now in his tenth year has over 10,000 receiving yards and 68 touchdowns. He has a huge chip on his shoulder (one of several) stating repeatedly that he is not regarded in the same grouping as the top NFL receivers and should be. This week he plays in a game against a former team, where the NFL will be watching (no other games on at 9.30am ET) 

So far this season his lines are as follows

Week 1 6 for 62, 1 touchdown versus the Browns, a game in which the Jets were a long way ahead

Week 2 7 for 101, 1 touchdown, a closer game against the Colts

Week 3 10 for 109, 1 touchdown, the Jets were behind and chasing the game against the Eagles

The game against the Dolphins should be close (its a "pick em" game on the point spreads), the match up against the Dolphins secondary is excellent and he should have a big game

5 points Brandon Marshall First touchdown scorer 17/2 Skybet or 8/1 William Hill

10 points Brandon Marshall anytime touchdown Evens Skybet or William Hill

I would also back Marshall to go over when his over/under receiving yards once the market comes up over the weekend if the line is set at +/- 90 yards     

So far the 2015 NFL season has seen some sweet spots for contrarian betting.

The NFL landscape can change markedly from season to season with a salary cap, free agency and college draft all contributing to enabling poor teams in one year rebound quickly the next and making it difficult to sustain success (although of course franchises like the Patriots buck this trend in part due to exceptional coaching and some players amongst the best at their position in the NFL ever such as Brady and Gronkowski). This typically presents opportunities because the weight of public money identifies this slower than results change.

Since the start of the 2003 season, visitors have gone 1,511-1,452 Against the Spread (ATS) while underdogs have gone 1,490-1,483 (ATS). While neither of these trends are profitable on their own due to the juice/vig charged by sportsbooks, they highlight some of the risks in betting well backed NFL favourites.

One of the most popular contrarian NFL betting systems is the 80/20 rule which focuses on underdogs receiving less than 20% of bets. Underdogs of at least seven points are particularly profitable in conference games. This is because familiarity between teams levels the playing field, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points.

Contrarian betting is a broad term which not only encompasses the concept of betting against the public, but also taking an opposing view on other widely held opinions. In theory it’s simple to recommend but when push comes to shove bettors are often unwilling to take the necessary steps. This includes opposing the league’s top teams, taking teams in the midst of prolonged losing streaks, and consistently betting non-playoff teams.

One of the most simple and profitable contrarian strategies that bettors can employ is simply betting on teams following a loss, or better yet, a blowout loss. Broadcasters and analysts will spend all week overreacting to a sub-par outing, and this often creates artificially inflated lines for the following week. When dogs receiving less than 25% of spread bets have lost the previous week, their returns are positive and when that team lost the previous game by at least a touchdown even more so.

In the past I have discussed here the importance of key numbers and getting the best line. Simply getting an extra half-point can increase long term winning percentages by several points and that half-point is particularly important when dealing with key numbers.

Over the past 12 years, 18.7% of NFL all games have been decided by exactly three points. Focussing on underdogs of 3.5+ points could potentially turn a number of pushes into victories.

Simply put, a few outlier team records aside, over a 16 game NFL regular season it is an “8-8 league” and any team can beat any other, let alone cover sometimes inflated spreads, on “any given Sunday”.

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section