Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 10th-11th October

Posted on 4 Oct 2015 10:18 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League International Break for Euro 2016 qualifiers. England play Estonia on Friday night and Lithuania next week

- Rugby World Cup, the final weekend of pool games including Wales v Australia and Ireland v France to decide Pool winners. All written up here

- Rugby League, the Super League grand final between Leeds and Wigan

- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi

- NFL Week Five games. Sign up for week five coverage here

- Racing, on the flat at Newmarket, York and Chelmsford City, over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham.

 - Golf, The Presidents Cup in Incheon, South Korea and the British Masters at Woburn.

 -Tennis, WTA China Open and ATP China Open in Beijing and ATP Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships in Tokyo.


i-Pools

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You can play Fantasy Pools, Last Longest pools or Classic prediction and coupon pools. i-pools is the only site where you can play these daily pools in all different formats across all sports
 
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Free Tip of the Week :Russian Grand Prix Sunday 11th 12pm

In the last five races of the 2015 season, Sebastian Vettel has amassed exactly the same number of points (83) as Formula 1 world championship leader Lewis Hamilton with two wins, a second and a third place in those races. Meanwhile Nico Rosberg has 52 points over those five races.

For the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi this weekend Lewis Hamilton is 4/7 favourite, Nico Rosberg 11/4 and Sebastian Vettel 8/1. Each way terms of 1/3 1,2 are widely available.

One of the key issues through the 2015 season has been the tyre compounds used for the various races. It has become evident that the super-soft diminishes Mercedes’ advantage over the field. This was clearest in Singapore where Pirelli brought the soft and super-soft compound tyres to a slow speed, low degradation track. Mercedes were simply not able to get them into the correct operating temperature range as Ferrari and Red Bull managed and were off the pace.

Generally the Mercedes advantage is greater on tracks where the harder Pirelli compounds are used. So in Silverstone, for example (on medium tyres) the Mercedes was 1.1s ahead of Ferrari in qualifying. More recently in Suzuka two weeks ago where the harder compounds were raced, Mercedes was again well clear

Earlier in the season Pirelli brought the super-soft and soft tyres to Monaco, Austria and Canada. In Austria on super-softs the gap to Ferrari was just 0.355s, in Canada it was 0.621s to Raikkonen so if Vettel had not had problems it would have been more like 0.3s and in Monaco it was 0.751s (before the Ferrari got qualifying modes on the engine).

The betting opportunity for this race is that the same super-soft and soft tyre choice will be in Sochi this weekend. It has been relatively close everywhere this season on those tyres between Mercedes and Ferrari.

This week Paddy Lowe, Mercedes’ executive director said that “ Pirelli’s decision to bring its super-soft tyres to Sochi this year, as opposed to the medium and soft tyres used in 2014, will introduce an element of uncertainty for the race”.

Mercedes non-executive chairman Niki Lauda has been quoted this week too, fearing his team could suffer a Singapore-style blip in form at this weekend's Russian Grand Prix due to the smooth track surface in Sochi.

Last year the flat, sterile Tilke designed track which races around the winter Olympics site was criticised for being processional, and the fact that Rosberg was able to run almost an entire race distance on a single set of tyres after a very early pit stop underscored the relative ease with which the drivers were lapping.

The nature of the track surface in Sochi led the teams down the one-stop strategy route as the very low roughness in the tarmac meant that everyone had a lot of grip on race day as more rubber was laid down as the weekend progressed. Comments this week suggest that the track conditions have not changed. Furthermore Sochi is humid, and at the margin that suits the Ferrari more than the Mercedes as it reduces the window in which Mercedes can get those super-softs working.

So bringing that all together:

  • on recent form Vettel matches Hamilton on points, and has beaten Mercedes twice in the last five races
  • The tyres that minimise the Mercedes advantage, and which saw the most recent Vettel win, are being used again this weekend
  • Sochi is a low degradation track and conditions set to be humid, both help close the advantage to Mercedes
  • Vettel is available at 8/1. Hamilton is 4/7.

6 points each way Sebastian Vettel 8/1 (1/3 odds, 1,2)


Sporting Salary Caps

A salary cap sets the maximum amount that a player plying his trade in a particular sport can be paid. This limit is set by the governing body of the sport requiring all teams to sign up to the regulations. Once teams have signed up they will only be able to pay their players a specific maximum amount. Consequently teams will have to provide their financial figures to the governing body to rule out any possible wrongdoing.

The use of a salary cap can be seen in England in both forms of Rugby – Union and League – and is a key component of all sports in America and also Australia.

The main reasons behind fixing a salary cap on a particular sport are as follows:

  • To ensure the financial fitness of the entities taking part in that sport
  • To guarantee the supposed fairness of the competition.

As clubs will only be able to pay players a certain amount of money in wages then their maximum expenditure will be cut thus reducing the losses that they can potentially make. One of the current problems surrounding English football is that when wealthy businessmen are in ownership of some of the clubs they will not only pay huge amounts of transfer fees to other clubs to secure the services of a player they will also use vast amounts of money in wages as a bargaining tool to tempt those players to sign for their club over other clubs.

Another argument often put in favour of introducing a salary cap is that it will increase the fairness of the competition, for example the current position is that some clubs have huge sums of money meaning they can tempt any player to play for them. As other clubs do not have this much money they simply cannot compete in the transfer market. If the ability of the big clubs to tempt these players was removed as they cannot pay the huge wages then it may enable more clubs to bid for the services of the payers making the league in theory more competitive.

The MLS (Major League Soccer) in America runs a salary cap system whereby all players are on a certain wage but then clubs also have the ability to breach the salary cap in relation to two players – this is the reason why LA Galaxy were able to sign David Beckham. The NFL is probably the pre-eminent example of a successful salary cap. It helps talent be evenly distributed across the league, and a competitive balance where any one team can go from losing to winning one week and one season to the next.

A salary cap may work in theory to ensure the fairness of competition and to reduce the possibility of football clubs going bust but there are a number of reasons why this would not work in English football. They are as follows:

  • The discrepancy between English football and the rest of Europe
  • The structure of football is already set
  • Problem of policing the system
  • Possibility of the league becoming less exciting

If English football teams were unable to pay the huge amounts of money in wages but the equivalent teams in the other leagues around Europe were able to do this then many of the big stars (English included) would choose to ply their trade in the other leagues in Europe where they can still play top-flight football and earn the money which they feel they deserve. As a consequence the big name players would not be attracted to come and play in English football which would certainly be to the detriment of the English league. This is a problem that English rugby Union has, where some players opt to play in France, without a salary cap and are currently excluded from consideration from the national team as a result.

Football in England has been operating in the same way for years. The system may have been changed slightly since the introduction of the FA Premier League and the huge sums of money the successive TV deals have brought in but the basic structure remains the same. Furthermore, the FA Premier League has been operating for over 20 years and to change it now would be extremely difficult. Consequently, if it was introduced in one league it would have to have a knock-on effect across all leagues in Europe and arguably the world. This form of new regulation is something which FIFA (the World Governing Body of football) would be reluctant to do.

The issue of competitive balance is one that English football grapples with operating without a salary cap and with disparities in the financial resources available to the top teams compared to the rest. It could be though that the sheer sums involved in the new TV deals are helping level the playing field. Clubs like Crystal Palace, West Ham, Swansea and Leicester are now in a position to compete for top European talent whether that be in fees or wages and this could be making the top half, if not ultimately the top four, of the Premier League more competitive.

 
NFL Regular season: Write-Us and analysis by Neil Channing
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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 3rd-4th October

Posted on 27 Sep 2015 10:05 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League weekend includes Arsenal v Manchester United and Everton v Liverpool. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup Games over the third weekend include England v Australia and South Africa v Scotland, all written up here

- NFL Week Four games. Sign up for week four coverage here

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton and jumps at Fontwell Park

 - Golf, European Tour: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews, Carnoustie & Kingsbarns

 -Tennis, ATP Malaysian Open in Kuala Lumpur and ATP Shenzhen Open in Hong Kong.


i-Pools

i-Pools have set up a "Different" betting site where the players pit their sporting knowledge against each other and not against a bookmaker..
 
You can play Fantasy Pools, Last Longest pools or Classic prediction and coupon pools. i-pools is the only site where you can play these daily pools in all different formats across all sports
 
You can register and check out the site here
 
Get £5 free just for registering.
 

Free Tip of the Week :

This weekend sees the first of the three NFL International games at Wembley this season. On Sunday at 2.30pm (on BBC1) the Miami Dolphins play the New York Jets in the first ever NFL divisional game to be played overseas.

For subscribers, Neil Channing will be covering the game in his weekly write-up but i wanted to focus on a couple of sub-markets in the game. So far this season the Dolphins have had a major achilles heel in the performance of their defensive secondary. Part of this is because a much vanuted and expensive defensive line (including Suh, Wake and Vernon ) has not sacked the quarterback, and quarterbacks with time will pick apart the back end of defenses, and in part it appears to be just a simple lack of talent at NFL level. Watching last week's game, receivers were running by the cornerbacks.

So far this season Miami have conceded passing yards as follows. None of the teams they have faced have high octane offenses or quarterbacks in the top echelon of the league

Week 1 Washington 188 yards, one touchdown

Week 2 Jacksonville 277 yards, two touchdowns

Week 3 Buffalo  289 yards, three touchdowns. 49 passing attempts!   

Overall Miami have conceded six passing touchdowns, tied for fourth most in the league through three games.

The Jets are a team built on one of the strongest defenses around (through the first three games of 2015, the Jets defense ranks No. 1 in points allowed ) and in recent years their rushing attack. This year the attempt is to be less one-dimensional and open up the passing attack more, with teams still having to respect their running game which means one on one match ups on the outside. The injury to starting quarterback Geno Smith in training camp actually helped accelerate that process as his replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is experienced with a big arm. He's inconsistent, and thows interceptions but he keeps throwing. In their loss to the Eagles last week (when they went behind and had to try to catch up) he threw 58 times

One of the key reasons why the Jets have a few ways to win games now is the off-season recruitment of a number one receiver in Brandon Marshall. Marshall is talented but high maintenance. He has had four teams in his NFL career and now in his tenth year has over 10,000 receiving yards and 68 touchdowns. He has a huge chip on his shoulder (one of several) stating repeatedly that he is not regarded in the same grouping as the top NFL receivers and should be. This week he plays in a game against a former team, where the NFL will be watching (no other games on at 9.30am ET) 

So far this season his lines are as follows

Week 1 6 for 62, 1 touchdown versus the Browns, a game in which the Jets were a long way ahead

Week 2 7 for 101, 1 touchdown, a closer game against the Colts

Week 3 10 for 109, 1 touchdown, the Jets were behind and chasing the game against the Eagles

The game against the Dolphins should be close (its a "pick em" game on the point spreads), the match up against the Dolphins secondary is excellent and he should have a big game

5 points Brandon Marshall First touchdown scorer 17/2 Skybet or 8/1 William Hill

10 points Brandon Marshall anytime touchdown Evens Skybet or William Hill

I would also back Marshall to go over when his over/under receiving yards once the market comes up over the weekend if the line is set at +/- 90 yards     

 


Contrarian betting in the NFL

So far the 2015 NFL season has seen some sweet spots for contrarian betting.

The NFL landscape can change markedly from season to season with a salary cap, free agency and college draft all contributing to enabling poor teams in one year rebound quickly the next and making it difficult to sustain success (although of course franchises like the Patriots buck this trend in part due to exceptional coaching and some players amongst the best at their position in the NFL ever such as Brady and Gronkowski). This typically presents opportunities because the weight of public money identifies this slower than results change.

Since the start of the 2003 season, visitors have gone 1,511-1,452 Against the Spread (ATS) while underdogs have gone 1,490-1,483 (ATS). While neither of these trends are profitable on their own due to the juice/vig charged by sportsbooks, they highlight some of the risks in betting well backed NFL favourites.

One of the most popular contrarian NFL betting systems is the 80/20 rule which focuses on underdogs receiving less than 20% of bets. Underdogs of at least seven points are particularly profitable in conference games. This is because familiarity between teams levels the playing field, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points.

Contrarian betting is a broad term which not only encompasses the concept of betting against the public, but also taking an opposing view on other widely held opinions. In theory it’s simple to recommend but when push comes to shove bettors are often unwilling to take the necessary steps. This includes opposing the league’s top teams, taking teams in the midst of prolonged losing streaks, and consistently betting non-playoff teams.

One of the most simple and profitable contrarian strategies that bettors can employ is simply betting on teams following a loss, or better yet, a blowout loss. Broadcasters and analysts will spend all week overreacting to a sub-par outing, and this often creates artificially inflated lines for the following week. When dogs receiving less than 25% of spread bets have lost the previous week, their returns are positive and when that team lost the previous game by at least a touchdown even more so.

In the past I have discussed here the importance of key numbers and getting the best line. Simply getting an extra half-point can increase long term winning percentages by several points and that half-point is particularly important when dealing with key numbers.

Over the past 12 years, 18.7% of NFL all games have been decided by exactly three points. Focussing on underdogs of 3.5+ points could potentially turn a number of pushes into victories.

Simply put, a few outlier team records aside, over a 16 game NFL regular season it is an “8-8 league” and any team can beat any other, let alone cover sometimes inflated spreads, on “any given Sunday”.

 
NFL Regular season: Write-Us and analysis by Neil Channing
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Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 26th-27th September

Posted on 20 Sep 2015 09:56 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League weekend includes Leicester City v Arsenal and Tottenham v Manchester City. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- Rugby World Cup Games over the second weekend include England v Wales and South Africa v Samoa, all written up here

- NFL Week Three games include the Bengals and the Ravens in a big NFC North match-up. Sign up for week three coverage here

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Chester, Haydock Park, Newmarket (including the Cambridgeshire, see below), Ripon and Chelmsford City (All weather)

 - Golf, Tour Championship by Coca-Cola at East Lake GC in Atlanta and on the European Tour: The European Open at Golf Resort Bad in Germany.

 -Tennis, ATP Moselle Open, Metz, France.


Free Tip of the Week :

Today Neil Channing looks at the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday, one of the big autumn handicaps.

The Cambridgeshire is one of the hardest handicaps of the season in which to find the winner. The bookmakers absolutely force us to have a bet though by offering each-way bets paying FIVE places and Sky Bet even offer SIX.

It's also possible to rule out a lot of the bigger priced runners and make things more manageable. Over half the field is quoted at 40/1 or over on Betfair and while they certainly can win, the value in getting these extra places is not to find speculative horses who could just return to form, who might manage the step up in class or who could just be crying out for this new trip as a failure to do these things will mean these are unplaced. What we are looking for is improving horses that could be ahead of the handicapper, who are in form and who will almost certainly stay the trip and run their race.

We can narrow things down a little more by ignoring the top seven horses at the weights. It's tough to give away chunks in these big competitive handicaps and the trends say the cut-off is about 9.03 and above. The weather has been decent at Newmarket this week and it seems like the ground is drying fast so I'm going to focus on horses that prefer firmer ground and I'll mostly consider those that stay 10f and are down in trip over those who are up from 7f as this 9f is a funny distance and it is run flat out as a bit of a sprint.

 If I take the 33/1 and under shots who aren't in the top seven at the weights I am left with a list of thirteen horses. I have had to be pretty ruthless throwing some out and I've got rid of Portage, a trip doubt for a short-priced horse not great for me, Earth Drummer, may be better on the all-weather and is not a sure stayer, Third Time Lady, the trip is a doubt, Nafaqua, doesn't seem in great form, Man of Harlech, think the trip is a big doubt, My Dream Boat, trip is a doubt, Mussadas, I can see an argument but the horse is pretty quirky and is far from a guaranteed stayer, Abseil, I'm not convinced he stays or he's in great form and Ryan doesn't help the price, Donncha is not a guaranteed stayer and the ground may be too lively and finally Franklin D who would be interesting if he stays. 

 I've left myself with just three and I'll bet them all.

 Express Himself is one of those horses who manages to kid the handicapper by keeping a bit for himself. He isn't totally tested in this grade but he is a young improver and he'll definitely stay the trip and like the ground.

 Halation is from the massively in form David Simcock stable. This one definitely stays, has form here, is comfortable in this class, is improving and will like the ground. Seems a great price.

 Educate won this race off 104 in 2013 and he races off 98 now. The stable are doing Ok and the last run came off a break and was an obvious prep for this race which has long been the target. The ground will be fine.

 I'm having 5 Points each-way Express Himself at 25/1 1/4 12345 with Ladbrokes, Bet365 and some small firms.

 I'm having 7 Points each-way Halation at 25/1 1/4 12345 with Hills and some small firms.

 I'm having 7 Points each-way Educate at 25/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Hills (Paddy are 28/1 if anyone can get on with them and Sky Bet have 25/1 with SIX places if you are quick).


Bookmakers using Iesnare

Iesnare is a ‘reputation management’ system by a company called Iovation that stores a digital fingerprint of your system in a database on their website. That fingerprint can then be accessed by all of their customers – such as online gaming websites - to track your online activity.

The main purpose of the system is to block criminal activity where fraudsters use multiple stolen identities / credit cards to sign up for multiple accounts on the same gaming sites. Issues like credit card fraud and chargebacks are clearly genuine reasons to use this system for commercial organisations attempting to protect profits and limit bad debts.

Whilst this sounds like a good thing and any lawful user shouldn’t have anything to worry about, what is worrying is the fact that your computer’s identity is being monitored as you use it across many different gaming websites. So for example if you use the same machine to sign up to two or more different sites that use the iesnare system, each site will know that you’ve recently signed up somewhere else

Many gaming sites have been flagged as potential (some are unconfirmed) users of iesnare

I was reminded of this issue when listening to a recent Final Furlong podcast in which Neil Channing makes reference to the software and bookmakers using it to track user behaviour, and rate you for limits. The software monitors things like does the user have a betfair account or oddschecker open and how many betting accounts they have. The implication being, of course, that you might be an arber, or that if you price compare via oddschecker with multiple sites open you are a “sophisticated” punter

You can listen to the relevant podcast here where Iesnare is described as "the most controversial topic in the betting industry"

A normal file search of your computer won't find it as it is a zero bytes file.You can find it as follows

- go to start button
- type cmd in search box and hit enter
-  When the command box opens type the following assuming your operation system is on the C: drive if it is not change C to the appropriate letter:
C:
cd\
dir mp*.com /s

Once it is on your machine, it feeds back data - lots of data, about lots of things - to iovation's central hub, and continues to monitor your machine's - and therefore your - activity in real time for the duration of its existence on the device.

Now here’s the awkward bit. It is widely suggested that if you disable, remove and don't allow bookmakers to install iesnare on your machine, you are flagged up and your account will be restricted anyway. Advice I have seen about how to avoid getting captured by iesnare:

1. Don't let anyone else log into their bookmakers account on your PC.
2. If you are limited/restricted by one bookmaker, don't log into your accounts with other bookmakers on the same PC.
3. Do not click through to a bookmaker from oddschecker.
4. If you are betting with a bookmaker, don't be logged onto Betfair on the same PC at the same time.

Privacy badger is a new add on for Google Chrome that blocks super cookies, spying ads and invisible trackers

What permission do bookies have to deploy Iesnare? This is where it gets tricky. My first thought was that this must be illegal. However on checking bookmaker some privacy policies they reserve the right to "collect certain data" which will be used "to meet certain business requirements". Given the nature of the bookmaking industry, and its need to operate within the laws of the land, it is likely that this spyware is just on the right side of legal.

If you wonder sometimes why you’ve been restricted after a few bets, perhaps while you are a loser with that firm, then this might be part of the puzzle as to why.

 
Rugby World Cup
Rugby World Cup (18th Sep - 31st Oct 2015) - Full Package
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The package includes the outright write up plus all match previews and details of all the bets that we are having. Thoughts on the second week games are available now.

Matchbook Traders Conference

Two tickets to be won (worth up to £480 each). Join Neil Channing and Joe Beevers at the Matchbook Traders Conference.

When: Wednesday, 14 October 2015 from 9:30 AM to 7:00 PM

Where: Emirates Stadium, London N7

 

Full details of the event can be found here: matchbooktradersconference.com/

In order to be in with a chance to win the tickets you need to click here and follow the instructions to be entered in the draw on October 1st.


NFL Regular season: Write-Us and analysis by Neil Channing

NFL 2015 - Regular Season Games - Package (Weeks 1 - 17)
£199.99 Sign Up Here
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.86% (over 1500 bets) (at 21st September 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4806.20

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,479 (as at 21st September 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.85% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.28%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 19th-20th September

Posted on 13 Sep 2015 09:54 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League weekend includes Chelsea v Arsenal. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has just been published.Read it here

- Rugby World Cup Games over the opening weekend including England v Fiji, France v Italy and New Zealand v Argentina, all written up here

- NFL Week Two games include the Cowboys at the Eagles and a repeat of last year's NFC Championship game Seahawks against the Packers. Sign up for week two coverage here

 -Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Semi-Finals: Belgium v Argentina and Great Britain v Australia in Glasgow.

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ayr, Catterick Bridge, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton

- Cricket, the Royal London One Day Cup final between Surrey and Gloucestershire at Lords

 - Golf, BMW Championship at Conway Farms in Chicago and the European Tour's Open d'Italia in Milan.


Free Tip of the Week :

Saturday sees the Royal London One Day Cup final, Surrey v Gloucestershire at Lords, as the 2015 domestic cricket season comes to an end. This is very much a "David against Goliath" encounter, reflected in odds for the game of Surrey 8/13 Gloucestershire 6/4. Two second division Championship sides, Surrey have been promoted this year and topped their RLODC group, then won tight home knock-out games against Kent and Notts defending totals on each occasion

Surrey are an extremely talented young team, with the younger players coplemented by the experience of Kumar Sangakkara and Gareth Batty. Two elements of the team have been vital in thier success in this competition

a) The top 3 in the batting line up, Jason Roy, Steve Davies and Sangakkara have delivered great starts

b) the seam bowling, especially the young Curran brothers, have taken wickets throughout the competition and have won them several tight games

Gloucestershire had a great semi-final win over Yorkshire, with a brilliant Michael Klinger hundred helping them overhaul 263 with ease

From 1-11 Gloucestershire are not as strong as Surrey, but they do have under-rated players notably in my opinion the left armed seamer Liam Norwell who would be in England contention if he played for a more fashionable county

This of course is a game in the second half of September in what could well be, looking at forecasts, difficult batting conditions with a 10.30am start. The advantage of winning the toss and presumably bowling first could be huge. This is itself is enough to push me towards the sub-markets than the outright

Potential bets are

Michael Klinger Top Gloucestershire batsman 9/4. The Australian overseas pro is one of the best batsmen in the county game. as 537 runs in this competition this season with three hundred and two fifties in seven innings, over 200 runs clear of the next Gloucestershire batsman

Steven Davies Top Surrey batsman. Davies is the third favourite here at 4/1 behind kumar at 11/4 and roy at 3/1. Davies has 496 runs in the competition this nseason and dominated the group stages. The winner of this market should come from the powerful top three but Roy is often good for a flashy 40-50 and then doesn't go on, for Surrey or England. I couldn't have him ahead of Davies here

Sam Curran Top Surrey bowler 100/30. Sam Curran is a 17 year old schoolboy that will play for England within three years. A slight left arm seamer he has the priceless talent (Starc, Willey etc) of being able to swing the white ball and take early wickets. He has 15 wickets in this year's competition and in the likely conditions on Saturday will be a real handful. He takes the new ball over his 20 year old brother, who is more likely to bowl overs at the death and both are slight underdogs to Jade Dernbach in the betting, and Dernbach is less consistent and is struggling to recover from a torn calf.

9 points Sam Curran Top Surrey bowler 100-30 BetfairSportsbook


Coral Racing Guarantee Extended

Coral last week announced an extension to the number of races covered by its guarantee to lay bets to lose a minimum amount in betting shops.

Coral will, from 11am daily in all of its 1800 betting shops, guarantee to lay all bets in good quality horse races (Class 4 and above handicaps, Listed and Group/Graded races in the UK) to lose at least £2,000 per customer, a policy that complements Coral’s TV racing guarantee to lay bets to lose at least £5,000 on all races shown on Channel 4 introduced last December..

“It’s important to reiterate that the overwhelming majority of bets offered up by our customers are laid in full at the prices on offer, but we accept that there is a perception in some quarters that bookmakers are not interested in taking bets to lose larger amounts.  In reality that is simply not the case, but as with our £5,000 guarantee that we introduced a year ago, extending that policy will formalise the procedures in place for our retail customers on a significant number of UK horse races, as well as a selection of high profile international contests,” said Coral’s David Stevens.

“Horse Racing remains an important part of our customer offering, and we have always been very comfortable laying decent bets on higher grade races.  Many punters do not place bets to win the amounts we are dealing with here, but plenty do want to, and to those people, we are saying Coral shops are the place to go,” added Stevens.

“Coral online and mobile customers already receive a number of offers that are unavailable in shops, including best odds guaranteed and ‘free bet if beaten by a head’, but due to the challenges of trading huge volumes of bets in a short space of time on this channel, we are not in a position where liabilities can be monitored and managed sufficiently for us to extend this offer to coral.co.uk customers.  However we are not ruling out extending it to telebet customers at some point in the future,” concluded Stevens.

In Summary the guarantees are:

To lose at least £5,000 guarantee per customer races: (from 9am) – to include all Channel 4 races.

To lose at least £2,000 per customer guarantee races: (from 11am) – to include all non-televised Class 4 and above handicaps, Listed and Group/Graded races in the UK.

Coral may also offer the £5k & £2k guarantees on other selected UK & International races at our discretion. These guarantees would be advertised in shops on the day of race.

Guarantees available to ALL Coral retail customers. Guarantees apply to the win part of the bet only

In an environment where restrictions to punters are higher profile this has to be seen as a welcome move in the right direction, and it could be seen as the first step in industry self-regulation. It mirrors in intent the moves made in Australian racing, where 18 months ago the state government in New South Wales announced new guidelines that require corporate bookmakers with annual turnover above $5b to accept wagers from all punters on payouts of up to $2k per city race, while bookies with annual turnover below $5b would be required to accept wagers that paid out a minimum of $1k.

As well of punters liking the certainty of knowing they will be able to place a bet, The Coral move is positive in another light as bets made onshore contribute to the health of the horseracing levy rather than bets struck offshore, and at the margin this shifts volume from one to the other. No sensible commentator is suggesting that bookmakers should lay every unprofitable bet and probably rightly this offer does not cover outdated eachway betting or offers, nor low grade racing. Its about building a sensible book and increasing liquidity.

On the downside of course, it may well be that Coral's prices for offer races are not that competitive but all in all this is a positive move

Presumably, there is nothing to stop other major UK bookmakers - only those with a big high street presence -  introducing similar measures?

 
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Matchbook Traders Conference

Two tickets to be won (worth up to £480 each). Join Neil Channing and Joe Beevers at the Matchbook Traders Conference.

When: Wednesday, 14 October 2015 from 9:30 AM to 7:00 PM

Where: Emirates Stadium, London N7

 

Full details of the event can be found here: matchbooktradersconference.com/

In order to be in with a chance to win the tickets you need to click here and follow the instructions to be entered in the draw on October 1st.


NFL Regular season: Write-Us and analysis by Neil Channing

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%

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The Road to Riches: Weekend 12th-13th September

Posted on 6 Sep 2015 10:47 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, .the Premier League returns after the International Break including Manchester United v Liverpool

 -Tennis, the conclusion of the US Open fortnight with finals this weekend

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Doncaster, including the St Leger and at Bath,Chester, Lingfield Park and Musselburgh

- Cricket, the five match one day international series between England and Australia concludes at Old Trafford on Sunday

 - Golf, European Tour: KLM Open in, Zandvoort, The Netherlands and the Walker Cup at Royal Lytham & St. Annes


Free Tip of the Week :

At times during the NFL Season this column will add NFL sub-market tips, intended to complement Neil Channing's weekly write ups which begin this week and are summarised below

NFL Regular Season starts September 10th 2015: Write ups and Analysis by Neil Channing

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New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

The New Orleans Saints are an NFL franchise in flux, with significant off-season restructuring required to get the roster under the salary cap due to “dead money” financial commitments from players no longer on the roster. That dead money is eating up roughly 15 percent of New Orleans' salary cap this year.

This has implications for constructing their roster, and in turn their likely style of play this season. Quarterback Drew Brees is in the last few years of his career and several of his leading receiving options have left the club.

The Saints want to re-emphasise the running game this year (and protect Brees better) behind a re-tooled offensive line including Max Unger from the Seahawks who they received in the Jimmy Graham trade and they have a very good backfield to cover up an unproven receiver group. A ball control offense could also put less pressure on a very young and erratic defense. This is using offense as defense, trying to control time of possession and keep the ball away from their opponents

Mark Ingram is the Saints lead back. Ingram finished 2014 with 9 touchdowns in 9 games started, missing some of the season through injury, and nearly 1,000 yards rushing. He averaged over 19 carries over his final ten games, and at 4.65 yards per carry in the last two seasons is one of the better, and under-rated, running backs in the league. Ingram begins the season as New Orleans' early-down and goal-line back. Ingram led the NFL with 20 carries inside the opposing five-yard line last year.

So, First touchdown scorer markets

What are we looking for when finding potential opportunities in this sub-market? Ideally all of the following:

- The team tendencies are to run first, at worst a balanced offense

- A strong offensive line and an above average lead back

- playing a run defense with at least question marks, ideally with a better passing defense alongside

- your player is on the home team

I’ve dealt with the first two points. For the second two, the Cardinals lost their top defensive co-ordinator Todd Bowles to a head coaching position and their top run stopper, nose tackle Dan Williams left in free agency. Their defensive secondary looks stronger than their front seven

In terms of wanting to be with the home side, you would like the team of the player you back to get the ball first and get the first opportunity to drive down the field and score. Whilst it doesn’t always follow, the home team winning the toss will often elect to receive the ball first. The away team will often elect to defer, for the simple reason that they get the ball at the start of the second half when the noise in the stadium is quieter (people late back to their seats) and it is easier to run an offense for an away side, especially in a dome which the game we are looking at is.

If most or all of that is in place, then you just need some good fortune to convert on these tendencies. Of course in any game you might not score on your first possession and if you do it could be through the passing game. However you can see where the variables might be in your favour and look to crystallise the value you have identified

8 points Mark Ingram first touchdown scorer Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints 15/2 Bet365

Note, in the run up to Sunday more firms will put first/anytime touchdown scorer prices up. Check back over the weekend, 8-1+ might emerge.

Anyone thinking of betting on the NFL this season needs a Matchbook account. Get up to £50 welcome Bonus too sign up here

 

Betting Industry Consolidation Part Two

The online gambling industry is still a relatively young one, and still constantly evolving. The margins are often quite low for operators, and so moves to consolidate are not unexpected.

Here I explore what deals of this type might mean for the people that really matter in this industry – the customers.

Less Choice

The most obvious effect of consolidation within the industry is that we may end up with less choice of where to bet. This isn’t guaranteed, as companies will often decide to continue to operate multiple sites even after mergers such as initially announced by Ladbrokes and Coral, who intend to retain two platforms but it seems a likely possibility. After all, two trading rooms and back office platforms are a lot of cost for a merged entity and a large part of the rationale of the consolidation is to cut costs.

Most pertinent for most of us will be whether consolidation is more likely to enable us to get on, and here I would suggest it is highly unlikely to make a positive difference. The main financial issues behind the consolidation are not customer-centric at all

Less Competition

If there was to be less choice for us as consumers than there would naturally be less competition between the operators. This could well have a negative effect on us in terms of the bonuses and rewards we receive, as it is the competitive nature of the gambling industry that’s a major reason why sites offer these.

I’m not sure many customers would gamble much less overall if there were no bonuses and rewards at all. As gambling operators are probably fully aware of this, in a less competitive market they may well be less inclined to offer so much extra value to their customers.

Higher Margins

One of the major potential benefits for companies involved in mergers or acquisitions is higher margins.The main point is simply that at least part of the motivation for such deals is usually to increase profits through economies of scale and improved efficiency.

Any increased profits for a gambling operator as a result of a merger or acquisition are most likely to end up with owners or shareholders than customers

More Innovation?

In online gambling the opportunity is opening up for brands to leverage their own customer data to better deliver ever-more personalised betting experiences to the customer. As device sizes get smaller use data to provide customers with what they want, with the fewest interactions possible, and use machine learning to make the right recommendations and suggestions, just as Uber is doing for transportation or Spotify is for music.

Most operators are at this stage still “running blind” when it comes to using their own data. The more forward-thinking operators will know one of the inevitable truths about pushing out new ideas: the successful ones will be copied, and quickly. In a presentation to investors given at the end of last year, Betfair – which has recently had some success with its newer product and marketing innovations such as ‘Cash Out’ and ‘Price Rush’ – put a limit of six months for any successful new enhancement before the competition brought out its own copycat product.

That may not sound like a long time – but it’s enough to have helped Betfair to a 52% rise in customer numbers in the financial year to April, and prompted analysts to suggest the successful repositioning of the business as a mass-market sports-betting and gaming provider was being aided by its innovative approach. “Key product differentiators should increase customer loyalty, driving strong long-term returns,” the analysts added.

Conclusion

The end result will probably be that we have fewer places to bet and play.. I think we might end up seeing smaller sign up bonuses if there is a little less competition in the market, as sites may choose not to spend so much of their resources on attracting new players. However, I suspect this will be balanced out by a greater focus on retaining existing customers. This could mean better VIP programs and loyalty schemes for the regulars, and these tend to offer better value in the long term anyway.

 
Rugby World Cup
Rugby World Cup (18th Sep - 31st Oct 2015) - Full Package
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.87% (over 1500 bets) (at 25th August 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4722.30

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

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