Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 5th-6th September
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .The International break for the Premier League. England play in San Marino on Saturday at 5pm.
-Tennis, the middle weekend of the US Open at Flushing Meadow, New York
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock Park, Kempton Park, Thirsk, Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford-on-avon
- Cricket, the second of a five match one day international series between England and Australia at Lords
- Golf, European Tour: M2M Russian Open in Moscow and USPGA Tour: Deutsche Bank Championship, TPC Boston, Massachusetts.
- Rugby Union, England v Ireland, France v Scotland and Wales v Italy in World Cup warm up matches
Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast
The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined a fortnight ago by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"
You can listen to it HERE
Free Tip of the Week :
The second match in a five game ODI series that concludes the Ashes tour takes place at Lords on Saturday
In the first match England let Australia off the hook twice as Australia recovered from 195-6 and then England collapsed from 172-3 to 246 all out
Before the first match outright prices for the series havd Australia 8/15 and England 15/8, but this promises to be a close series. Understandably Australia are favourites with a much better record in the format and match-winning potential from their senior players, but England are a more formidable proposition than they were the last two times the teams played in this format
The question of the pitches the series is likely to be played on is crucial. Versus New Zealand in the first part of the summer, the series was played on good pace pitches with bounce and this led to attractive cricket, good stroke-play and high scores. This was also the case at Cardiff for Monday’s T20 international and if it is to be continued for these five games England can win any of the games because their depth of batting and aggressive approach suits faster tracks
It is on tired/used pitches that England’s weaknesses are exposed with more difficult amassing scores on such decks. Of course we have to bear in mind that late summer in England may see inclement weather and some seam friendly conditions
Looking at this game:
Top Australian bowler
Starc's favouritism (he will be 5/2 or shorter in any ODI he plays to be Top Australian bowler) is well deserved and BE readers will have done well supporting him because he has been recommended in various markets. In 42 ODIs before this series he has 85 wickets at a strike rate of 23.1 and economy rate of 4.73. He was joint top wicket-taker in the world cup with 22 and was top Australian ashes wicket taker with 18 despite inconsistencies with the red ball.
Cummins' career is more embryonic and has been blighted by injury as is often the case for young fast bowlers. In 13 ODIs he has 21 wickets at a strike rate of 29.1 and economy rate of 5.83. Cummins showed in the T20 International that he can challenge Starc here. Bowling at up to 93-94 mph he troubled the batsmen and showed impressive skills in the last overs too with yorkers. I happened to watch him live for the first time a month or so ago when the Australians played a tour match at Northampton, he took a few wickets, blasted away the tail and went into my notebook.
In the first match of the series four bowlers took two wickets each but with Starc as 5/2 or below there is an opportunity to get with Cummins in this type of market as he blossoms
At Southampton, on a pitch with no swing, 6 bowlers were used. Apart from Cummins, who went wicketless in his first spell but came back at the death to take a couple of wickets, the line up is a bit one paced. The three support bowlers (Marsh, Watson and Maxwell) shared 20 overs and that helps explain why the three are 6/1 and above in this market.
Starc i have mentioned and the third front-line blower is Nathan Coulter-Nile who lacks the outright pace of Cummins and whilst has plenty of white ball experience lacks the range of wicket taking options that Starc has
Assuming that Lords will be another flat pitch, designed to produce a high scoring spectacle, Cummins has something extra, and his outright pace makes him an attractive option as long as we are getting up to a point more than the Starc price
5 points Pat Cummins Top Australian bowler second ODI 7/2 Ladbrokes
Top England bowler
I was going to suggest David Willey (of Northants who did so much to get us close to winning the T20 Blast bet last weekend) to win this market because prices still fail to factor in his skill and potential in the format but, inexplicably to me, he wasn't selected for the first game with Woakes (0-57 off 9) and Wood (1-72 off 10) preferred. It could be that he plays at Lords and i will present the case anyway
Bowling at both ends of the innings Willey was the top T20 England bowler at Cardiff. He can swing the white ball at the beginning of an innings and then at the end he takes wickets when batsmen are taking risks. In principle in this sub-market I far prefer backing bowlers bowling at the beginning/ends of innings than those bowling in the middle overs where the main task of batsmen is to accumulate not survive (at the beginning) and accelerate (at the end)
It is early in his England career, but just going through the five international games he has played before this series is interesting.
ODIs v New Zealand
game 1 3 wickets. top england bowler
game 2 2 wickets: dead heat top england bowler
game 3 2 wickers 2nd top england bowler
T20s
v NZ 3 wickets. dead heat top england bowler
v Aus 2 wickets top england bowler
Of course a return from four of the five games in this market is only a small sample size, but at 4/1+ if he does play on Saturday, I will be on Willey too.
Betting Industry Consolidation
A combination of high overheads and tighter industry regulation has led to a series of high-street shop closures and M&A activity across the gambling industry. Last week Paddy Power announced that it wants to merge with Betfair. The combined business could become one of the world’s biggest online betting and gaming companies, with annual revenues of more than £1 billion. Share prices in both companies soared after the deal was made public.
As Paddy Power and Betfair provide different but complementary services, there are unlikely to be any competition issues in Britain. It fuses Betfair’s betting exchange and presence in Europe and the United States with Paddy Power’s online business, UK and Irish high street outlets and Australian operation. Paddy Power’s and Betfair’s proposed deal has been driven as much by regulatory and tax issues as anything else.
The British gambling industry has a tough time with Parliament and regulatory bodies, despite contributing over £2.3 billion towards GDP. The reason is ultimately why many bookmakers located themselves in Gibraltar as a means of significantly reducing their tax burden. The introduction of the point of consumption tax, which requires a 15% levy on profits arising from British transactions regardless of the bookmakers’ domicile, has become yet another burden to the gambling sector and been the real tipping point for the industry to consolidate, no longer being able to domicile abroad and protect themselves from the regulation. Duties on fixed-odds machines and licensing fees are further examples of the mounting efforts by the UK parliament to heavily tax the industry.Just this week the introduction of the PoC tax in the UK and Europe's harsher new VAT regime were cited as the two main causes for a 17 percent fall in EBITDA reported by 888 Holdings in the first half of 2015.
Theoretically industry consolidation would enable the gambling sector to shield itself from the onerous taxation and regulation through economies of scale and significant cost savings. Margins are quite low for operators, and so moves to consolidate by the means of mergers and acquisitions should not be considered at all unusual. They are simply a natural development for the sector, which needs to be much more efficient.
The deal last week comes as the latest in a series of mergers and takeovers in the industry over the past year or so. Ladbrokes and Gala Coral signed a £2.3 billion deal recently that seeks to expand their business online. In July 888 Holdings thought its bid for Bwin.party had been secured with a £900m offer; but now all bets are off, as Bwin is looking again at a rival bid from GVC Holdings, the owner of Sportingbet. That still leaves companies like William Hill, which also tried to buy 888, seeking a place in the rapidly changing market. It is odds-on that we will see more consolidation in the coming months.
Jim Mullen, who took the helm at Ladbrokes in April, said that further consolidation was “inevitable” and that “it’ll be a different landscape in five years' time”.
Next week I will look at what the rapidly changing composition of the industry might mean for the industry’s customers -us.
Rugby World Cup
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NFL Regular Season starts September 10th 2015: Write ups and Analysis by Neil Channing
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NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials): This free write up by me has just been published. You can read it here
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.87% (over 1500 bets) (at 25th August 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4722.30
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any timeSubscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 29th-30th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .A full weekend Premier and football league programme including Newcastle United v Arsenal. 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' is back, you can read it here
- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Barclays in New Jersey, USA. European Tour: D+D Real Czech Masters in Prague.
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Beverley, Goodwood (see tip below), Newmarket, Windsor and Cartmel over the jumps
- Cricket, T20 Finals Day at Edgbaston, see article below
-Tennis, the final tournaments before the US Open. ATP Winston-Salem Open in North Carolina and WTA Connecticut Open in New Haven.
- Rugby Union, Ireland v Wales and Scotland v Italy in World Cup Warm Ups
- Athletics, the final weekend of the IAAF World Championships in Beijing
Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast
The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined a fortnight ago by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"
You can listen to it HERE
Free Tip of the Week :
This week Neil Channing looks at tomorrow's 2.35 at Goodwood, a 7f handicap
Back on the 16th May I wrote in this column wrote about this season's NatWest T20 Blast which reaches a conclusion this weekend with Finals day at Edgbaston
The recommended tip was as follows
5 points each-way Northants to win the NatWest T20 Blast at 25-1 (1/2 the odds 1,2) Sportingbet, Bet365, Skybet
and Northants have made finals day, thanks to winning their quarter-final at Sussex in large part due to a brilliant 40 ball 100 from David Willey.
Also reaching finals day are holders and hosts Birmingham, Hampshire and Lancashire. With the draw for the semi-finals about to made I sat and muttered "don't get Birmingham, don't get Birmingham" because Birmingham are the best all-round team in this year's tournament
The draw came out as follows
Northants v Birmingham
Hampshire v Lancashire
Outright prices are as follows
Birmingham 9/4
Hampshire 11/4
Lancashire 100/30
Northants 4/1
Northants are 11/8 underdogs for the first semi, Lancashire 11/10 underdogs for the second.
In terms of looking at finals day in the light of our existing position I am reminded of Neil's comments in his recent USPGA coverage ahead of the final day, with Day leading
"First of all I will make the general point as I always do in these spots, that I will definitely place more bets if I think the price I'm being offered is greater than what I consider is the true chance of the eventuality and that any bets I've placed up until now are irrelevant. If you simply get rid of all of your good bets at any price at all, even if that price offers no value, to lock in a profit, then you are giving away masses of EV and how can you get back the equity you lost on losing bets that have drifted so much that they can't be hedged?"
I would also make the general point that these are four good teams, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them win and that this is the shortest most random cricket format, where a single performance or an important toss can skew results markedly. I will take my chances with the Northants bet.
If I was coming at the event fresh, looking at prices for finals day alone, the one that really interest me is Lancashire who I personally would have as favourites to win their semi based on the strength of their bowling attack. Of their five bowlers who have played 10 games of more in this year's competition four have economy rates of 7.2 or below, and Faulkner the Australian all-rounder who has extended his contract to play on Saturday has an economy rate of only 6.14. These figures compare to economy rates of between 8 and 9 for the Hampshire bowling line up.
Generally Edgbaston finals day pitches offer a reasonable contest and scores of 150-160 are competitive. A difference of 1-2 runs per over per player in bowling economy rate is a large one in this context and I would expect Lancashire to reach the final. As such the 100/30 for the outright appeals.
In the other semi Northants have a punchers chance based off the two factors that appealed ante-post a) at least 5 match winning big hitters in the batting line up that can fire irrespective of pitch conditions and b) the range of experienced death bowling. They will deservedly be underdogs to beat Birmingham though. Man for man I might take the Northants batting line up over Birmingham but the hosts bowling line up is world class. Spinner Jeetan Patel goes at under 7 runs an over, all rounder Rikki Carke goes at under 6 and Recardo Gordon and Oliver Hannon-Dalby are very under-rated death bowlers with 20 wickets in the competition so far this season.
US Open Tennis (30th Aug - Sep 13th 2015) - Full Package
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All tennis bets over the last two years are showing an ROI of +10.08%. Betting £10 a point you would be winning £2031.30
Rugby World Cup
Rugby World Cup (18th Sep - 31st Oct 2015) - Full Package
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NFL Regular Season starts September 10th 2015: Write ups and Analysis by Neil Channing
NFL 2015 - Regular Season Games - Package (Weeks 1 - 17)
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£199.99 Sign Up Here |
NFL 2015 - Week 1 only | £25 Sign Up Here |
NFL 2015 - Thursday Night Games - FREE Write Ups | Free Access Here |
NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials) | Free Access Here |
NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials): This free write up by me has just been published. You can read it here
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.87% (over 1500 bets) (at 25th August 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4722.30
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any timeSubscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 22nd-23rd August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .A full weekend Premier and football league programme including Manchester United v Newcastle and Everton v Manchester City
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina and European Tour: Made in Denmark at Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort in Denmark.
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday including the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, and at Chester, Sandown and Bath. Chelmsford on the all-weather and National hunt meetings at Newton Abbot and Perth
- Cricket, Days three and four of the final Ashes test of the Summer at the Oval.
-Tennis, ATP and WTA Western & Southern Opens in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- Rugby Union, France v England and Italy v Scotland in world cup warm-up matches
Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast
The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined last week by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"
You can listen to it HERE
Free Tip of the Week :
Formula 1 returns this weekend with the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps.
Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari ended Mercedes’ seven-race winning streak by winning last time in Hungary ahead of Daniil Kyvat and Daniel Ricciardo. It was the first ever podium for Kyvat, the first podium of the year for Red Bull and the first double podium for Red Bull since September, 2014.
Lewis Hamilton is the clear favorite in this race at 1/2 ahead of Nico Rosberg at 9/4 and Sebastian Vettel at 141.
Spa-Francorchamps is known and respected as one of the most challenging circuits in the world. As well as being one of the fastest circuits on the modern calendar, the Ardennes climate often throws a spanner in the works in the form of sudden downpours.
It is a power track, at Spa medium speed corners are connected by a series of flat-out sections, two of which are on significant inclines. This tilts the competitive balance away from the packages able to produce the kind of down-force levels that would excel in Hungary, and towards the slippery, aero-efficient set-ups which are likely to be seen again in even more extreme form at Monza in two weeks' time.
For the four teams with Mercedes engines - the Mercedes works team, Williams, Force India and Lotus - it is set fair for them to have an advantage on the long straights particularly after Eau Rouge and the first DRS zone for over-taking .
There are other variables though, the possibility of changeable weather the event and the further implementation of stricter limitations on driver aids and coaching with the changes having a "a particular emphasis on race starts" are the major two issues.
F1's governing body has become concerned that drivers receive too much coaching and information from their teams in order to perfect their starts.
"These measures will bring back the driver in full control of the car, enhancing races' excitement and unpredictability," said a governing body statement.
We have already seen an impact in recent race starts of the changes taking place, particularly Mercedes struggling to hook their cars up well. Lewis Hamilton has started the last three races from the front of the grid, yet his getaways have got progressively worse. In Austria he finished lap one in second place, in Britain he was third, and in Hungary he had fallen to fourth, and that could be a trend that will continue at Spa
So the combination of more uncertain variables means unpredictability and less certain betting outcomes as we saw in Hungary. Once the Mercedes, which can be expected to occupy the front row of the grid here too, are embroiled in having to overtake cars rather than just lead from the front for the whole race, the risks of taking short odds on their victory is higher.
So with the outright market efficiently priced and with more variables than normal for this race, I turned to the sub-markets.
Valtteri Bottas finished on the podium in Canada in June, a result he would have repeated at Silverstone two races later had the team strategy allowed him past his team mate when the team were 1-2 early on in the race. Spa should be a real fit for the quick Williams as the team try to improve past Ferrari as Mercedes' closest challengers.The power-hungry nature of this track and cooler weather suggests that Williams will be ahead of Ferrari here.
Bottas finished third here last season and odds of 11/2 look fair value for another podium finish
5 points Valtteri Bottas Belgian Grand Prix 11/2 Coral
Early season, Early problems
The first few weeks of a long domestic football season can provide some unique and difficult challenges for bettors to overcome if they aren’t careful. Unexpected results abound. West Ham win at Arsenal, then lose at home to Leicester the week after, to give but one example. Here’s a look at four of the biggest problems, and some solutions that can help you overcome them and avoid any serious and costly issues.
Problem: Insufficient current data.
A first port of call typically involves looking back at how teams have been performing this year – in general and in particular circumstances – to help you predict how the will perform in the upcoming situation. When a team hasn’t played many games you obviously can’t rely on what you have seen so far. Bettors heavily dependent on these stats can find themselves lost in the opening weeks before a reliable data set has been established.
Solutions: If you are careful you can look at the preseason for information. The challenge of the preseason is that you can’t take anything that happened at face value – star players often don’t play the whole game and teams often don’t have winning as a primary goal of the preseason games. Despite that, you can often interpret what you see in the preseason and draw valuable insights from it that will help you in the regular season until better data arrives. You can also look at coaching trends. Some coaches have developed a pattern of early success in a season, while others typically take a while to get their team on the right page and rolling.
Problem: Teams are unpredictable early on.
In any sport every year you will see a few really good teams that look terrible out of the gate, and a few seemingly lousy teams that can’t lose at the start. Over the course of a season it’s usually reasonably easy to know which teams are good and which ones aren’t, but in the first couple of weeks it seems like anything can happen.
Solutions: The best and most obvious thing to do here is to bet less until you feel you have a handle on things. Avoiding and limiting losses is at least as important as winning. In the same spirit, it makes great sense to be more patient early on, and to only make bets when you are particularly confident of your edge. As the season goes along and you get a better sense of how teams are looking then you might be willing to bet a slim edge, but early on you need to give yourself the widest margin of error possible.
Problem: Line movement is unpredictable.
Later in the season astute bettors can usually make a pretty good guess about how the lines are likely to move. Early on, though, it’s not so easy. Added unpredictability leads to increased uncertainty. It can be harder to time your bets for maximum value early in the season, and you can often find a line with value unexpectedly moving against you.
Solutions: Later in the season you can be choosy, but earlier in the season you sometimes can’t afford to. Whereas you might later wait on a line to see if it improves, early in the season you might want to bet the line you like it if it is reasonably acceptable where it is. It’s better to take an acceptable line now than be forced to take a worse one later on, or to b forced to pass on a game you wanted to bet.
Problem: Excitement and impatience lead to bad choices.
If you have anxiously been awaiting the start of a particular season for a long time, then you are probably very anxious to start betting on it once you can’t. That can lead to people making bets that aren’t totally ideal, and forcing situations that they normally wouldn’t be attracted to. That can be very costly.
Solutions: Early in the season, the first thing you need to do is take a deep breath and relax. You have to remember that sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. There is no reason at any point to make a bet unless you are sure of your edge and confident in your insight – regardless of how badly you want to make a bet. Making bets on sports you love is a lot of fun, but losing those bets isn’t much fun. By being patient you can cut down on those losses.
US Open Tennis (30th Aug - Sep 13th 2015) - Full Package
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Rugby World Cup
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any timeSubscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 15th-16th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .Aston Villa host Manchester United in the first televised Friday night Premier League game at the beginning of a full weekend Premier and football league programme
- Golf, the final major of the season, the USPGA at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin. See Neil's analysis here
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon and Lingfield Park
- Cricket, the last of the Nat West T20 Blast Quarter finals on Saturday, Kent against Lancashire at Canterbury
- Tennis, the WTA Rogers Cup in Toronto and the ATP Coupe Rogers in Montreal
- Rugby Union, New Zealand against Australia in the second Bledisloe Cup game and England v France and Ireland v Scotland in Rugby World Cup warm up games
Free Tip of the Week :
This week has seen the Quarter Finals of the Nat West T20 Blast and on Wednesday night this column's 25-1 each way ante-post tip Northants made finals day on 29th August by beating Sussex thanks in large part to David Willey's 100 off 40 balls and 3-27 opening the bowling.
The final quarter-final takes place on Saturday afternoon at 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Kent play Lancashire at Canterbury. Kent topped the South group with 19 points, Lancashire finished fourth in the North group.
Kent’s appearance at this stage has been coming for a couple of years. With money tight and no overseas players in their ranks, it has been all about the local lads who have come through the ranks, primarily batsmen like England U19 opener Daniel Bell-Drummond, England ODI wicket-keeper batsman Sam Billings and hard-hitting finisher Alex Blake. Most importantly of all though Sam Northeast has done a brilliant job as captain and was the second highest run-scorer in the group stages of the tournament with 627 runs, batting at three with a hundred and four fifties. This was nearly 300 runs ahead of the next Kent batsman
Lancashire are the more experienced team and are full of quality. Ashwell Prince is a steady source of runs, skipper Steven Croft is one of the most under-rated all-rounders on the circuit and in James Faulkner they have one of the best death bowlers in world cricket.
This could be a very close game and Lancashire are 6/5 underdogs to Kent at 4/5. If anything i like Lancashire here because their bowling has more consistency and depth than Kent. Of their five bowlers who have played 10 or more games in this year's competition four have economy rates of 7.15 runs per over or under with three of the five recording strike rates of 15 or under. For Kent's four bowlers with double digit games none are under 7.66 runs per over economy or under 15 on strike rate.
As ever though in a one off game in cricket's shortest and most random format outright value is pretty marginal. For this week's tip we look at the top Kent batsman market. Sam Northeast should be favourite on weight of runs alone of course but I would be concerned about early wickets.
It's always a bit fraught recommending batsmen who bat 5 or lower in a T20 because of course there is the risk that they won't face the balls required to make an impact if the top order fires. It may be worth taking a chance here though.
Alex Blake is a hitter. In the competition so far this season he has 301 runs off 174 balls with three fifties. The 10-1 on offer with BetVictor and a few other places is quite tempting because, much like David Willey for Northants, he's a match winner irrespective of pitch conditions and can score extremely quickly. If there are early wickets, as i suspect, the 10-1 is a very live price indeed. Coincidentally, these two sides met in the 50 over competition last week. Chasing 258 and with Kent struggling when he came in, Blake scored 89 off 56 balls with 7 sixes. That gives an indication of his potential.
4 points Alex Blake Top Kent batsman T20 Quarter final v Lancashire 10-1 BetVictor
Betting on the NFL
Betting on the NFL is extremely popular, but not everyone is aware of how to bet it or how many different types of bets are available to make. For the uninitiated, all of this information can be a bit overwhelming and even a little confusing. Over the course of the next month Betting Emporium's analysis will include ante-post and NFL specials for the 2015 season followed by Neil's weekly column during the season.
What you might see includes:
Point Spreads
Point spreads (also known as lines, spreads or sides) are the most common type of NFL bet. Every game has a favourite and an underdog of a certain amount of points. A negative number (-) will always represent the favourite, while the positive (+) number shows which team is the underdog
Let’s look at an example
Miami Dolphins +7.5
New England Patriots -7.5
Teams are always listed with the home team on the bottom and the visiting team on top. In the example above, the Patriots are favoured by 7.5 points at home against the visiting Miami Dolphins, who are 7.5-point road underdogs. If you were to bet on the spread for the Patriots, they would need to win the game by 8 points or more. For a winning bet on the Dolphins, they would need to win the game outright or lose by 7 points or less. Point spreads will be listed as whole numbers (-3, +4, etc.) or in half-point increments (e.g. -7.5, +10.5).
Typically you will be betting these lines at 10/11 each of two to allow for the bookmaker's juice or "vig".
You will hear talk of "Important numbers" in NFL betting and these are based off NFL scoring with a touchdown and extra point worth 7 points and a field goal 3 points. From 1920-2014 just under 25% of NFL games ended in 3, 7 or 10 point winning margins
It has commonly been suggested that home field advantage in the NFL is worth approximately three points to bookmakers. There are so many teams that are evenly matched, which leads to three points being made the most commonly-used spread.
Three points may seem like a good number, but when it moves up or down a half-point, then things get interesting. A half-point on either side of the spectrum can create a lot of issues regarding NFL games. If a favourite opens at 2.5, bettors could jump on that, not needing to factor into the equation the possibility of a field goal either way. If the line moves to 3.5, the favourite doesn't look so good; it is the underdog that looks much better.
Money Lines
If you are more interested in simply betting who you think will win the game outright, you need the Money line, for example:
Seattle Seahawks 1/3
San Francisco 49ers 9/4
Keep in mind that you are simply picking the winner of the game, regardless of what the point spread is. Without a point spread the most likely outcome is that the favourite will win. With betting the money line on the underdog, your risk is somewhat diminished because of the potential return, but the likelihood of that team winning the game outright is not as likely.
Totals (sometimes called “over/unders”)
Are second only to spread betting in terms of popularity. You simply bet if you think the final score will be more (over) or less (under) than that number. A total would look something like this:
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Over 45.5
Under 45.5
If you think the two teams will combine to score 46 or more points bet over, and bet under for 45 or less. Again, usually a 10/11 each of two market to allow for Vig and analysis will factor in playing conditions (inside or outside, grass or articificual surface), weather, team offenses and defenses etc
Props
Prop bets (short for proposition bets) are normally bets on how a certain player will perform or what will happen at a certain point in a game. A prop can basically be anything a book decides to put out. You might bet on whether Tom Brady has more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers this week, or whether the coin flip in the Super Bowl will be heads or tails. Both of those would be considered prop bets.
Common weekly props will be under/over passing, rushing and receiving yards in each NFL game for offensive players. Ante post player and team props for the season are popular to include divisional finishing positions, yes/no on teams making the play offs as well as sub-categories for players such as rookie of the year
Season win totals
Betting season win totals means betting over or under a certain amount of wins for a given team. For example, odds makers may set the season win total for New England at 12. If you think the Pats will win more than 12 games this season, you would bet the over, less than 12 games, you would be the under. Typically these bets are only available before the season starts, but occasionally you will find updated win totals around the half point of the season.
half times and quarters
You can also bet on the point spread or total for the first half, second half, or individual quarters of a game at many sportsbooks. These bets work the same as full game spread and total bets, but are adjusted for a smaller sample of the game.
Teasers
Teasers are a form of accumulator in which you “buy” additional points on a point spread or total. For example, if the Ravens are listed at -10 and the Chargers are listed at -14, you could bet a two-team 7-point teaser that would give you the Ravens -3 and Chargers -7 at more aggressive juice You must win every bet in your teaser for it to be a winning bet. In the NFL you can typically bet 6, 7 and 10 point teasers on just about any number of teams.
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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 8th-9th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the English football season with a full schedule of Premier League and football league games.
- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock Park, Newmarket, Redcar, Ayr and Lingfield Park
- Cricket, Days 3 and (possibly) 4 of the Fourth Ashes Test at Trent Bridge
- Tennis, ATP Austrian Open and ATP Citi Open in Washington. WTA Citi Open in Washington and WTA Bank of the West Classic in Stanford, California
- Golf, World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone in Ohio.
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Rugby Championship with unbeaten Australia and New Zealand meeting in Sydney.
Free Tip of the Week :
Saturday sees the conclusion of the Rugby Championship, the annual Southern Hemisphere competition this year truncated because of the impending World Cup. The Bledisloe Cup game at the ANZ Stadium in Sydney between Australia and New Zealand will decide the winner of the tournament with both teams going into the game having beaten both South Africa and Argentina.
Both teams had very narrow victories over South Africa. South Africa were 20-7 up on Australia in Brisbane and Australia scored on the last play of the game to win 24-20 and deny this column a win. The week after the All Blacks trailed in Johannesburg with ten minutes to go, a late try securing a 27-20 win. Both teams beat Argentina comfortably.
So recent form lines are similar and Australia are at home.
The World Number One All Blacks have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003 and have not lost to the Wallabies since August 2011 in Brisbane. The Wallabies are currently enduring a 10-match winless streak but have got close recently, despite being in the doldrums under recent coaches. In August 2014 they drew 12-12 in a wet game at the ANZ Stadium and in October they lost 28-29 at Brisbane to a match winning conversion as the last play of the game.
The All Blacks are not unbeatable. They are ahead of the rest and have been for a decade, but several teams within that pack of chasers have either overturned the All Blacks on rare occasions (England in 2012, South Africa last year) or come within a whisker of doing so. As well as Australia, Ireland for example have come close. The All Blacks though are renowed for winning games in tight situations and trusting that game plans will eventually bring the result home.
For this game they are selecting as close to their first choice team as they can after some rotation earlier in the tournament. Dan Carter is back at fly half, Sonny Bill Williams returns at centre. Deservedly they are 1/2 outright for this game, Australia 15/8 and six point underdogs on the handicap.
Australia though are a more competitive unit than they were as recently as six months ago. For several years their weakness in the scrum has been a real problem and negated their competitiveness in the back row (where here Pocock/Hooper will go toe to toe with Richie McCaw at the breakdown) and forced their very dangerous backs to operate off the back foot.
The lack of a platform left them exposed against the top few teams. Under Michael Chieka though they have put a lot of work into their physicality. Over the years they've always been extremely dangerous with ball in hand, and that added physicality they've brought has been notable, and probably gives them more of an all-round game now. The real test they are building to is the World Cup group with England and Wales
With Australia more competitive I expect a close game here. I wouldn't go as far as predicting an upset but it should be within two scores and the "Winning margin" market has the All Blacks winning by 1-12 points at 13/8 with Ladbrokes and 6/4 generally. New Zealand winning by 13+ is no more than 2/1 and I would consider much less likely.
8 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points in the Rugby Championship game versus Australia 13/8 generally
The game kicks off 11.05am Saturday (Sky Sports 3)
Football, Moneyball?
Almost exactly a decade ago, the American writer Michael Lewis published a book called "Moneyball". It told the story of Billy Beane, the general manager of an unfashionable baseball team, the Oakland A’s, who was using new statistics to evaluate baseball players and strategies.
Moneyball changed baseball and almost all ball games from basketball to cricket but it also affected worlds beyond sport. Ken Mehlman, Republican campaign manager in the US presidential election of 2004, instructed his staff to read it, because he realised that it wasn’t just a sports book. It was also a perfect case study of how crunching numbers can give you an edge.
Football was always the most hidebound sport and it held out longest against the numbers revolution. In the last few years though, and in betting in football in the decade before that, the use of data has infiltrated football. .In football, people always did what they did because they had always done it that way. Clubs were historically run by autocratic managers who had left school at 16 to become players and didn’t hold with book-learning.
In the mid-1990s, the spread of computers began to change this. Companies such as Opta and Prozone began collecting stats on football matches. Suddenly, clubs knew how many passes each player had completed, how many tackles he had made and how many kilometres he had run.
All 20 clubs in the Premier League – and many in the lower divisions – now employ data analysts to make sense of this information. Manchester City has 11 of them. In 2012, Liverpool caused a stir by creating a new position, director of research, for Ian Graham, who has a PhD in theoretical physics. The analysts are involved in pre-match preparation and post-game debriefs; they help to identify transfer targets and devise strategies for nurturing young players through the ranks
Data isn’t everything. It is one tool among many. It gives you an edge and, since you could employ perhaps 30 statisticians for the £1.5m that the average player in the Premier League earns, it’s an edge teams can afford. . They believe that a football match can be translated into numbers and – much as a hedge-fund trader does with the stock market – those figures can be crunched and scanned for patterns.
Some in the industry now predict that the biggest innovations will come from poorer clubs, football’s equivalents of the Oakland A’s: Rich clubs such as Chelsea can succeed simply by buying great players. Analytics will help you win, but so will money
It is here where the betting industry and the football industry coincide. Successful long term football bettors like Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham own clubs and especially in the case of Brentford, analytics is informing player recruitment and contract negotiations.
Last season for example Mr Benham made it clear he wanted a more 'Moneyball' approach run through a director of football and Brentford issued a statement on the departure of their manager saying the club would introduce a new recruitment structure "using a mixture of traditional scouting and other tools including mathematical modelling". Benham is also the majority shareholder in Midtjylland a Danish club that won their Superliga in 2014-15. Chairman Rasmus Ankersen told Reuters in an interview,
"We do quite a few things differently but the two main things are the statistical analysis and the way we approach talent development,"
The new numbers-based regime was implemented when Benham bought a majority shareholding in Midtjylland in July 2014. The Danish club and Brentford, are run along similar lines and although Ankersen acknowledges the human element is important in terms of running the club, the stats are key.
"The data is not perfect but I think it's less imperfect than the human judgement. It's got to be a combination all the time," he added.
With a limited budget, analysis is particularly important when it comes to recruitment.
"We use the data to find undervalued players in undervalued markets and we also do a lot in terms of development”
Ankersen added that statistical analysis is used in almost every aspect of the team's preparations, from recruitment and training to what they do on the pitch and why.
"We have identified metrics that we know statistically work over time, it comes down to the number of dangerous situations we create and the number of dangerous situations we prevent the opponent from creating."
The relevant statistics are beginning to change from computational curiosities to player recruitment and then contract negotiation items much like WAR (Wins above replacement, a baseball statistic developed to sum up "a player's total contributions to their team") did after Moneyball.
Even in an era with ever bigger TV contracts allowing for ever more transfer market largesse, the ongoing transformation of the use of data within football clubs is a bigger factor than ever before in team composition and tactics and therefore strategy, and can inform our betting selections through the football leagues.
US Open Tennis (30th Aug - Sep 13th 2015) - Full Package
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The Ashes
Coverage of the 2015 Ashes series between England and Australia, FREE to read for registered users HERE
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any timeSubscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section