Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League and Football League fixtures including Liverpool v Arsenal.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Acapulco and Sao Paulo
- Golf, the World Golf Championships, WGC- Mexico and on the European Tour the Tshwane Open in Pretoria.
- Cricket, the second ODI between the West Indies and England in Antigua on Sunday and the second Test Match between India and Australia in Bangalore starting Saturday.
- Rugby Union, the second week of the Super 18 2017 season
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
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Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Super 18 Rugby: Highlanders v Crusaders Saturday 6.35am GMT
The 2017 Super 18 Rugby season started last weekend and last season’s semi-finalists the Highlanders started their season with a home local derby, beaten 25-15 by the Chiefs. They trailed 14-9 at the break, gifting the Chiefs a couple of tries in the first half and they went on to lose the try count 3-0. It was a game where these mistakes completely undid the rest of the Highlanders performance as they dominated territory and possession. The Highlanders were 3.5 point favourites to win last week and they had won all three of their home derby matches in 2016 by margins of 1 to 10 points.
The Highlanders are a team that doesn’t have the household names of other New Zealand teams but now that their whole squad has had exposure to the finals campaign of Super Rugby I think they might have the personnel to push for a second championship in three years notwithstanding their opening week loss.
The Crusaders made a winning start although they had to work hard to see off the Brumbies 17-13 in Christchurch, scoring three tries to one. The Crusaders had been supported in the Round 1 betting market with the handicap shifting out from 10.5 points towards the mid teens by kick off and they led 12-3 at the break before “losing” the second half. In 2016 the Crusaders lost a cracking contest to the Highlanders (34-26) at this venue. Fly half Richie Mo’unga was injured last week and could be out of action for up to 10 weeks.
That injury is important because the Crusaders were already fielding the least experienced half-back combination in the New Zealand conference and whilst 1 through 15 they are a dangerous side they lack some squad depth.
The Highlanders are 4/6 favourites to bounce back here, the Crusaders 11/8 and 3 point underdogs. I expect the Highlanders to win and the over 2/1 available with Ladbrokes on a 1-12 point winning margin is my idea of the bet to have.
10 points Highlanders to win by 1-12 points 11/5 Ladbrokes (7/4 Betfair Sportsbook)
The New Manager effect, real or imagined?
Within the context of the current Premier League season after the sacking of Claudio Ranieri last week four of the current bottom six teams have changed managers. No great surprise there, the pressures to stay in the division with associated financial rewards are always an inducement to change for the boards of struggling clubs. For the three clubs where we have some results under the new manager to go on, results have been mixed:
* Swansea under Paul Clement have seen the biggest improvement (having had no positive impact from their change two months earlier to Bob Bradley) with 12 points gained from 21 possible
* Hull under Marco Silva have won 8 points and whilst they remain in the bottom three now appear to have some hope whereas little previously existed
* Perhaps surprisingly given his reputation Crystal Palace have struggled under Sam Allardyce ( who previously kept Sunderland up despite losing 7 of his first 10 games in charge). Until their win last weekend, they had secured only four points from his eight games in charge.
For Leicester, it remains to be seen whether their controversial move will make any difference beyond the win under the caretaker manager on Monday when everyone except their opponents knew they would be fired up.
Outside the Premier League this season, we’ve seen Birmingham City’s surprising move to replace Rowett with Zola be met with a resounding raspberry by the playing staff. Last season as soon as the by then unpopular Mourinho left Chelsea the players immediately picked up downed tools and results improved under Hiddink and on into this season. As much as anything we need to look at playing staffs and their prior and current motivation (or lack of it) as an indicator of whether a quick turn around is likely or not.
We all know about the supposed “new manager effect” to describe the recurring event in which football punters convince themselves that a struggling team’s form will improve because they have changed manager. The mixed results from such changes this season highlight how difficult it is to extrapolate from a series of individual situations and establish that the “new manager effect” is a sustainable theory of just a casual explanation for changes in short term variance and mean reversion.
Over the past two decades a series of academics have conducted studies into new managers and, by and large, the results of these investigations have poured cold water on the idea that one should back sides with a fresh face in charge.
Some of these are as follows:
In 2010, Sue Bridgewater wrote the book “Football Management” and looked at the first six games for new Premier League managers during the period 1992 to 2008 and found some improvements overall. Yet by games 12 to 18 she also found that the points benefit of changing the manager had largely vanished, suggesting that there is only a short-lived gain.
Analysing managerial turnover across 18 seasons up to 2004 in the Dutch Eredivisie, Ter Weel revealed patterns of decline and improvement around the replacement of one manager with another. However almost the same pattern could be observed where managers had not been sacked
A German student conducted a 35-year study of the results in her country’s top domestic football competition. Alexandra Tippenhauer’s father had been sacked from Bielefeld in 1980 and she found that Bundesliga sides which sacked a boss did no better in their next 12 matches than they have done in their previous dozen games.
In Italy De Paola and Scoppa, looked at Serie A seasons 2004 to 2008 and concluded that there was no evidence that managerial change produced any significant improvement in team performance within the same season.
In essence all these studies conclude that what we see under whichever manager is patterns of mean reversion which can be both positive (Chelsea last year to this) and negative (Leicester last year to this) and in some cases extremely so.
Top-level football managers get paid a lot of moneys precisely because of this variance and associated lack of job security and the practical impossibility of replacing a contracted team makes managerial positions often even more precarious in the modern era.
Returning to a subject close to my heart various analyses suggest that Leicester City are around the 13th best team in the 2016-17 Premier League (shots taken, chances created etc). If Leicester were 13th, no change would have been made whether the players liked it or not. If, a big if, short term results improve under a new manager the “new manager effect” will be credited but in reality it will just be the ebb and flow of regression at work.
More particularly when betting look at the individual situations and look at reasons for sacking and then look at the likely motivations of the players. It is within these squads that you will often find the answers, not the abilities or otherwise of a new manager in the short term.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,179.90 (2nd March 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.72% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,179.90 a 954% increase
The Road to Riches Oscars Special: Weekend of 25th-26th February
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, Premier League and Football League fixtures and the Football League Cup final Manchester United v Southampton.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations, Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France and on Sunday England v Italy.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Rio, Marseille and Delray Beach in Florida.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Jo’burg Open and on the USPGA the Honda Classic at PGA National.
- Cricket, the first Test Match between India and Australia in Pune.
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
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Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
The Oscars by Neil Channing
There are 24 Oscars being dished out in the early hours of Monday morning. 18 of those categories have a favourite of 4/9 or shorter and only one does not include an odds-on favourite.
A lot of people will probably think it looks a bit dull from a betting point of view and just head off to bed but I think I should be able to find the odd good bet and I'll definitely be staying up as it's one of my favourite things.
There is one thing that none of us have been able to escape since last year's Oscar ceremony and that is politics. Clearly from an Oscars point of view, the main political story that is likely to come up is Trump and as well as the high chances that some award winners talk about the Mexican Wall, the attempts to stop Muslims entering the country and the controversial policies regarding the rights of various minorities, there is also a massive factor to consider...The Oscars are voted for by The Academy and The Academy includes lots of former winners and industry people who are generally more to the left and hence anti-Trump. I would say that wherever they can they will try to vote to attempt to stick it to the President as well as just knocking him in their speeches.
The obvious movie to bet if you share my view might be The Salesman in the Best Foreign Language Film. This film has gone from 11/8 into 6/5 since the film’s director Asghar Farhadi announced he was boycotting the awards. The Iranian director won this category in 2012 and the film is about a performance of Death of a Salesman in Tehran so it could be popular with the Academy even without the chance to protest against the travel ban. I will probably bet this one but I think I have a better value alternative that will be my tip for you today.
The five films in the Documentary Short category are all pretty worthy in terms of their subject. Three relate to the war in Syria and the refugees, one portrays families deciding to pull the plug on their relatives on life support and the other is about a holocaust survivor. A real barrel of laughs. I think the situation in Syria is the one that will catch the attention of the voters given it's prominence in the news this year and the film I'm going for is "The White Helmets" which has been released on Netflix meaning that it's much easier for all of the Academy to have seen it. This film has a bit of a PR machine behind it too especially as George Clooney has shown an interest in developing a feature film from the short. When I first saw the prices this one was the 5/1 third favourite behind odds-on Extremis (the will they/won't they flick the switch story which is also on Netflix). We may have missed some of the early juice but I still think 3/1 is great value and there is an argument that this film really ought to be the favourite here.
I'm having 8 Points The White Helmets to win the Best Documentary Short Oscar at 3/1 with Betfred and Sportingbet.
A look ahead to the 2017 F1 season
It is a month until the first Grand Prix of the 2017 season in Australia and this week has seen the launch of cars ahead of the pre-season tests in Barcelona beginning next week. A new set of rules has been introduced for the 2017 season and the pre-season tests will see the first clues as to whether the established pecking order could be shaken up or the front runners have extended their advantages.
It is a time of much change for F1 with new owners in Liberty Media, the removal of Bernie Ecclestone and the return of Ross Brawn as managing director of racing. Brawn has said he wants to develop a purer, simpler sport in which more teams and drivers can win.
This year cars will be wider with bigger tyres and reshaped wings. With audience figures having dropped for F1 in recent years, and with the memory of a big shake up in the pecking order when the last big overhaul of the regulations took place in 2009 (Brawn took advantage of a loophole to go from nowhere in 2008 to World Champions in 2009), many F1 watchers are hoping that there will be fresh challengers to Mercedes dominance and new rivalries within more exciting racing to attract new audiences.
For the past six years, F1 tyres have had high 'thermal degradation'. They over-heated when drivers pushed hard and never recovered their grip. Drivers had to lap below top speeds to extend tyre life. The FIA has instructed Pirelli that tyres must not overheat irrecoverably when a driver is following another car and the rate of degradation must be such that drivers can push hard throughout a race.
Restrictions on engine development have also been relaxed. The complicated 'token' system that limited the amount of changes allowed to engines in a season has been dropped. Now, the only restrictions are that any developments can be introduced only with a new engine. Teams are still limited to four engines in a season.
The fear in some quarters is that the new cars could reduce overtaking. The wider cars and tyres mean the cars will produce more drag and will be slower in a straight line whilst cornering speeds will be higher. Braking distances will inevitably be reduced, which makes overtaking harder. Having said all of this we need to consider that DRS has a big impact in overtaking in the F1 of today so the ‘power’ of the 2017 DRS systems (i.e. the speed difference between a DRS active and non DRS car) will be important.
Mercedes F1 boss Toto Wolff, who was opposed to the rule changes, says: "I hope that overtaking is not going to be too difficult because of the width of the car and the dirty air behind it - but let's see."
On Five Live this week Lewis Hamilton said “"My engineers say it's going to be a lot harder to overtake. If we see overtaking is worse, it's going to be worse for the fans, the spectacle will be worse so I'm hoping that's not the case.”
If that happens, serious questions will be asked about the decisions that were made which compelled teams to develop a new type of car only to make F1 a worse spectacle. .
As it is, notwithstanding the fears that over-taking will be even more difficult, there is hope that a team, most probably Red Bull with superb engineers and a track record of doing well in years with regulation changes, will be that bit closer to Mercedes and give a genuine two team fight for the Drivers and Constructors championships, something the sport needs after three years of one team being so far ahead, and another team being far ahead in the three years before that.
Lewis Hamilton hopes so too. In the same radio interview he said “I think Red Bull always create an amazing car and this is a new area of down-force so I think it'll be really interesting to see what they pull out and I'm hoping it'll be a real mixture of competition. I hope it'll be close so we'll be fighting with Red Bull and Ferrari. That's what the fans want to see."
Brodders Football Analysis
If you started following Brodders soccer on January 1st this year and bet £10 a point on all bets you would be winning £4398 with ROI+20.53%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Brodders soccer long term (2014 -2017) +£23,298.80 profits at just £10 a point (average bet 15 points)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th February
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, FA Cup fifth round weekend
- Racing, Jumps meetings at.Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. All weather meetings at Kempton and Lingfield.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, Memphis and Rotterdam
- Golf, on the European Tour the World Super 6 in Perth and on the USPGA the Genesis Open at Riviera in California
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
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Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
FA Cup Fifth round
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur 2pm Sunday BBC1
Before the third round I wrote about the Premier League club’s varying motivations for the FA Cup and how that might play out. The third and fourth rounds saw a number of shock results and inevitable column inches on the competition’s future. Te result of these shocks is that for the fifth round this weekend only 8 of the 16 remaining sides are from the top flight.
As it happens the draw kept all the Premier League sides apart and increased the likelihood that come the final we will see two top-six sides meeting at Wembley. However for reasons that we all know there are still opportunities for the underdogs. In three cases this weekend I think that applies, as follows:
- Millwall v Leicester City
Leicester have Seville next midweek and Ranieri said yesterday that he would change the whole team for this weekend (which may not be a negative, but still). Millwall have already beaten weakened Bournemouth and Watford sides at home in the Cup this season, are going well in the league and have to have a good shot here. Unfortunately at 2/1, a lot of that is factored in.
- Middlesbrough v Oxford
Middlesbrough are one of six sides in a very tight relegation battle and don’t score many goals. Certainly they don’t score enough goals to justify being 1-2 here. Oxford beat Newcastle 3-0 in the last round and have beaten eight clubs from higher divisions in cup competitions under Michael Appleton. At 13/2+ they were on my shortlist
- Fulham v Tottenham
Taking Tottenham first, they played Gent in Belgium on Thursday and lost narrowly. The second leg is at Wembley next midweek. The Thursday side was first choice and, much as in the comeback win against Wycombe in the last round, this will be a squad team with a few potential game changers on the bench if required. Top four in the League is likely but not a foregone conclusion and they need to stay in the Europa League as another potential way of getting into the Champions League next year.
Earlier this week a Fulham fan (a generally sceptical Fulham fan, which seems the most sensible position to take) told me that this side as “the best we have had in five years”. Under the radar for watchers of the Premier League, this is a young side now managed by Slavisa Jokanovic where the owner Shad Khan and his son Tony appointed an American data analyst (Craig Kline) who is “Director of statistical recruitment” and dictates transfer policy.
This hasn’t always been a harmonious relationship but in the likes of Aluko, Ayite, Piazon, McDonald, Johansen, Malone, Odoi and Ryan Sessegnon a competitive team has emerged which, after two previous seasons of mediocrity following relegation to the Championship, is just outside the play off spots and has only lost eight league games all season.
An option here has to be “Draw no bet” (Fulham 12/5 Bet365 2/1+ elsewhere) if we are backing the underdog but for the purposes of this free tip we’ll shoot a bit higher
8 points Fulham v Tottenham 7/2 Betfred or Paddy Power (100/30 elsewhere)
Georgia on my mind.
Georgia’s Rugby Union side have won the Six Nations 'B' competition (the Rugby Europe Championship) for each of the past six seasons. At the last World Cup they won two games and played well for a long way against the All Blacks. At the start of the Six Nations recently they were officially world ranked 12ths one place above Italy.
A recent report mooted the idea of Georgia being included in the Six Nations structure, with promotion and relegation being introduced each year. Six Nations Chief Executive John Feehan’s response was negative
“I’m sure it would be interesting but we’ve got to look at it from the integrity of our competition and what’s good for us and not necessarily what’s good for Georgia. I don’t mean that in any nasty way other than to say that my role is to make sure that the six unions which are involved in the Six Nations maintain the credibility of the tournament. “
Increasing the Rugby World Cup 20 teams was justified by increasing the possibility for the game globally, and clearly that isn’t a priority for the Six Nations but it is a shame nonetheless.
Georgia show continued signs of progression. They have sealed automatic qualification for RWC Japan 2019 and they regularly attract crowds of 50,000 for the Rugby Europe Championship. The contrast with Italy could not be more stark. Since they joined what was then the Five Nations in 2000, Italy have finished bottom of the Six Nations table on 11 occasions.
Just this past weekend Italy lost by 53 points at home to Ireland. Their biggest losing margin in the Six Nations is 57 points v England 2001, then 53 v Wales 2016 now matched this year. Meanwhile the best of the Italian franchises Zebre and Treviso continue to get beaten soundly in the Pro12 and European Cup rugby. After the defeat last weekend Corriere Dello Sport headlined “We don’t deserve to be in the Six Nations”.
New coach Conor O’Shea has been brought in and there is a five year plan to build on the investments made in the youth system and become competitive. “There will be days like these” he said after the Ireland game.
Sixteen years after Italy joined the championship though the status quo is looking less tenable. The Six Nations options include:
- Expansion, though the scheduling implications and club/country conflicts are an increasing issue
- Promotion/relegation
- A play off between the winner of the Rugby Europe competition and the bottom side in the Six Nations
Most importantly of all though, is there a will for all parties to do any of these? For now, probably not as evidenced by the reluctance to schedule any Italy v Georgia fixtures on the calendar and outside of the World Cup, Georgia have played just one match against a Six Nations team in the past decade.
Away from the playing side, Italy has a population of 60m and Georgia 4m and one media expert said “The overall media-rights value of the Six Nations would almost certainly fall if Italy were relegated and Georgia were promotedmainly due to the difference in size and value of the two media markets,”
Unless Italy improve quickly though, the pressure for change is going to continue to rise.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you started following Brodders soccer on January 1st this year and bet £10 a point on all bets you would be winning £4262 with ROI+24.02%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Brodders soccer long term (2014 -2017) +£23,298.80 profits at just £10 a point! (average bet 15 points)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th February
** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, Premier League games include Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Rugby Union: the second weekend of 2017 Six Nations, Wales v England and Italy v Ireland on Saturday and France v Scotland on Sunday.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Montpellier, Sofia and Quito, Fed Cup 1st round matches
- Golf, on the European Tour the Maybank Championship in Malaysia and on the USPGA the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Six Nations France v Scotland Sunday 3pm BBC1
France played England off the park for 60 minutes at Twickenham. Their huge forwards controlled the close exchanges and, at long last, their backs really turned it on. Louis Picamoles was brilliant but scrum-half Baptiste Serin has revived the French team and increased the tempo of their attacks hugely. Sadly for the French, I felt Guy Noves the coach got his substitution strategy wrong after an hour, Serin was substituted, the French attack withered and England’s bench changed the game. France with 127 carries to England's 96, and 591 metres made to England's 383, lost.
Novès will be really disappointed that France did not see the game out, but he has to be encouraged by how his team played. They are creating a powerful mix of big carries, off-loads and links to their back three who are capable of breaking out from any part of the pitch at any moment .Virimi Vakatawa and Noa Nakaitaci were both frequently involved and Scott Spedding hit some great lines. The quick passing and interplay between forwards and backs was fun to watch for that hour.
Many pundits and writers agreed that while Scotland could definitely beat Ireland, few expected them to actually do it. With Wales and Italy to come at Murrayfield, Scotland could well ensure they finish the tournament with a 100 per cent record at home. Against Ireland Scotland had three chances in the first half and scored three tries. They were smashed in the front row but benefitted from miscues in the Irish line out, huge work-rate by the back five forwards (Jonny Gray made 28 tackles) with tireless defending and work rate off the ball and the individual brilliance of Stuart Hogg.
Most significantly when they went behind 22-21 with 20 minutes to go they came back went ahead and closed out the game. This is a huge step forward for a team that has struggled to do this for several years. In the last few minutes Greig Laidlaw’s composure and game management were crucial.
They face quite the challenge to back this up in Paris, especially the key question of how do they hold on in the scrum. Facing the French off the back foot is going to be difficult, notwithstanding their ability to create turnovers at key moments and line speed in defence. They will hope to run the huge French pack around and be in the game for the last twenty minutes and use what they expect to be better fitness at that stage. The interesting part of the team selections is that in making one change, France have gone for more bulk and power in selecting Chouly in the back row whilst in replacing the injured Wilson with the noted snaffler John Barclay, Scotland have yet more speed and turnover ability. It is in this battle up front that the game will be decided.
Outright odds for the game are France 4/9, Scotland 2/1 and France -6/Scotland +6. I prefer France -6, the second half being the highest scoring at 5/6 and this bet below for the game.
10 points France to win by 1-12 points 7/4 Coral (13/8 Skybet)
The Kante Role
In part, the 2016-17 Premier League season is a tale of two clubs. Chelsea have 30 more points after 24 games this season compared to last. Leicester City have 29 less. Of course there are a variety of reasons for this change in performance at both sides but there is one striking common denominator, the (not at all biased) wonderful holding midfielder N’Golo Kante who arrived in the Premier League at the start of last season for the now eye-opening fee of only €8 million and has since only lost 6 of the 60 games he has played. Although only having been in the league for a season and a half, he’s recorded the most tackles of any Premier League player over the last three seasons.
Lets take Leicester City first (get it out of the way). At the time of writing Leicester City have won 114 fewer tackles and made 188 fewer interceptions in 2016/17 than they had at the same point last season. Not all of that is Kante but much of it is. His loss has been widely felt. The favoured 4-4-2 formation has often been over-run without him. The central defenders Morgan and Huth have looked slow and cumbersome without his protection and the trademark counter-attacking style has struggled to launch without Kante winning possession and allowing quick and often unexpected transitions from defending to attack.
The now famous quote by the former Head of Player recruitment (now at Everton) Steve Walsh is apposite “People say we play two in the middle but we don’t. We play Drinkwater and then Kante either side”
Turning to Chelsea, buying Kante for £32m on a five year contract has to be seen as a steal. In the past week Chelsea have had two big games against top six opponents, Liverpool and Arsenal and have gained four points to remain nine points clear as we enter the final third of the season.
His performance against Liverpool attracted a lot of attention but wasn’t especially unusual for him. Nevertheless recording 16 tackles during the game, 14 of which were successful was enough to get the pundits purring. In the second half alone he won all 12 of the tackles he attempted, 7 of which were in Liverpool’s half.
Moving onto the Arsenal game last weekend Coquelin and Oxlade-Chamberlain in central midfield were over-run by Kante and Nemanja Matic and one column afterwards stated
“N'Golo Kante has officially made 'The Makelele Role' a thing of the past. From now on, the position of defensive midfielder will be forever known as 'The Kante Role'.”
So what makes him so good? Firstly his engine, he is an excellent athlete and really covers the ground. A journalist tweeted during the Arsenal game that he “must have a tardis” to be in central midfield one moment and dispossessing a wide midfielder the next. Secondly he can tackle and tackle cleanly and has superb positioning to anticipate and intercept regularly. Thirdly he can play too, picking passes across a range of distances and particularly good at sparking transition.
His role in the Chelsea team is enhanced by being next to another top class holding midfielder in Nemanja Matic an enforcer (if required) with a real physical presence. Whilst Chelsea have only conceded 17 goals in 24 league games much of the focus has been on the dramatic improvement in defensive form since the switch to three central defenders (and thus providing some protection to Luiz ) in September but the defensive barrier starts before you reach Cahill, Luiz and Azpiliceuta with Kante and Matic, a partnership no team has managed to get the better of this season so far.
Last season Sir Alex Ferguson described Kante as “the best player in the Premier League”. If he was then, he is more so now. For £32m he is both the signing and loss of the season and is having a major impact at both ends of the table.
When it comes to end of season gongs, it has become very unusual for defensive players, especially defensive midfield players, to get much recognition. In the betting for PFA Player of the year the head of the market sees, unsurprisingly, Hazard and then Kante whose odds have crunched down for 20-1 to 5-2 in a week at which point he is ahead of the likes of Costa, Zlatan and Alli.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders Football Analysis: January 2017 to date: +£3481 betting £10 a point, +ROI 52%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
The Road to Riches: Six Nations Special
** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, Premier League games include Chelsea v Arsenal. The African Cup of Nations final is on Sunday.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Rugby Union: the start of the 2017 Six Nations.
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Round 1 matches include Canada v Great Britain
- Golf, on the European Tour the Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale
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Free Tip
Scotland v Ireland Six Nations Saturday 2.25pm BBC1
There is a preview of the Championship below (big price free tips at the end: no spoilers, you’ll have to read down) but here’s a look in more detail at this game, the Opening game of this year’s Six Nations in Edinburgh.
Ireland won the Six Nations in 2014 and 2015 but 2016 was a rebuilding year minus retired Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell and others and they finished 3rd. The signs are that Ireland will be very competitive again this year. The rebuilding process has been very quick, and mirrored in the excellent performances of Irish provinces in European Champions Cup where results have improved dramatically this season. This is likely to be seen in two respects.
Firstly for a long time Ireland’s fortunes were dependent on the form and presence of Jonny Sexton, one of the top few fly-halves in world rugby and the ultimate game manager. During his frequent injury absences his understudies were Ian Madigan, Ian Keatley and Paddy Jackson. 2016 clearly showed that Jackson has matured to the extent that Ireland appear something close to the same team when he at 10 instead of Sexton. This is heartening as Sexton is out this weekend.
Secondly many younger players across the Irish provinces have burst onto the scene and cemented themselves quickly as international standard players. The likes of CJ Stander in the back row, Garry Ringrose in the centre and Tadhg Furlong in the front row are very talented and have been integrated alongside an experienced core of players.
Allied to this, Ireland have one of the best coaches in the game in Joe Schmidt and Ireland play a set style that really suits their players based off a superb kicking game at half back, punishing defense and these days more flair out wide when conditions allow.
Scotland have finished 5th, 6th and 4th last year in the last three Championships. They haven’t delivered the results their talent suggests they should have done, particularly in losing a number of close games
It’s Déjà vu all over again going into this Championship, and optimism abounds in what is coach Vern Cotter’s last Six Nations at the helm. The curmudgeonly old coach Jim Telfer said this week “this is our best team since 1999" (when they won the six nations). The backs coach Jason O’Halloran was more circumspect saying the team was a couple of years away but nonetheless this should be a better Six Nations for Scotland.
Optimism has been enhanced by Glasgow (this weekend's 23 contains 15 Glasgow players) reaching the quarter finals of the European Champions Cup for the first time and the side on Saturday contains the likes of the Gray brothers at lock, Finn Russell at fly half, the brilliant Stuart Hogg at full back as well as emerging talents such as Huw Jones in the centre and Zander Fagerson at prop.
There are a couple of doubts specifically about Russell’s ability to control a tight game and defence is an area that needs improvement after leaking 13 tries in last year's Six Nations, second only to Italy. Over and above that Scotland need to develop a ruthless streak and close out some games. With three games at Murrayfield though Scotland will feel a top three finish is possible. Beating Italy and either France or Wales is not a forlorn target.
Outrights for the game have Ireland 1/2 and Scotland 2/1+.The Handicap is Ireland -5. I do expect Ireland to win, but I also think it will be extremely hard fought and close for a long way. Wet weather (all week and forecast for tomorrow) is likely to contribute to that too.
10 points Ireland to win by 1-12 points .13/8 Sky Bet, 6/4 Betfair Sportsbook
Six Nations Preview
The 2017 Six Nations Championship begins this weekend. England are the defending champions, having won the Grand Slam last year and go into the tournament unbeaten since the appointment of Eddie Jones as coach after the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
For the first time, the 2017 tournament will use the bonus point system common to most other professional rugby union tournaments. As well as the standard four points for a win or two for a draw, a team scoring four or more tries during a match will receive an additional league table point, as will a team losing by 7 or fewer points. Additionally, to ensure that a team winning all of its five matches (a Grand Slam) will also win the Championship, three bonus points will be awarded. Bonus points and the new tackle directives (there is a distinct possibility of more yellow and red card this year, 14 v 13 spells are going to lead to a lot of space) should lead to a more open and higher scoring tournament than recent years, weather permitting.
The teams play either three home/two away or two home/three away matches (in alternate years) the split of which can be crucial depending on the strengths of the teams in any given year. The uneven spread of three home matches and two away, or three away matches and two home, can decide the outcome of the championship.
Current outright odds (with bookmaker offering the best price shown) are as follows
England 10/11 (Coral)
Ireland 5/2 (William Hill)
Wales 9/1 (Coral)
France 14/1 (William Hill)
Scotland 25/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Italy 1000/1 (Bet365)
No Grand Slam is 10/11 favourite (Betfred), England 9/4 (Paddy Power) Ireland 6/1 (William Hill)
Team by Team:
England
Fixtures: R1 France (h), R2 Wales (a), R3 Italy (h) R4 Scotland (h), R5 Ireland (a)
A perfect 2016 for England, 13 games unbeaten starting with a 2016 Six Nations Grand Slam followed by a 3-0 away victory in Australia in the summer and wins against South Africa, Fiji and Australia in the autumn Internationals.
Three games at home this year and likely to be unbeaten headed into the last match in Dublin which shapes up as a championship decider. England will have to overcome the loss of a series of key players through injury but such is their strength of depth that it would be a major surprise to find them outside the top two at the end of the Six Nations
Ireland
Fixtures: R1 Scotland (a), R2 Italy (a), R3 France (h), R4 Wales (a), R5 England (h)
Ireland lost their Six Nations title early in the tournament, drawing at home to Wales and losing in France and England before finishing with two home wins over Italy and Scotland.
The June tour to South Africa started with a win in Cape Town but a series win eluded he after a late host comeback in Johannesburg and a narrow defeat in the decider in Port Elizabeth.
The November internationals started with a memorable victory over the All Blacks in Chicago and although New Zealand took revenge in Dublin two weeks later, Ireland finished the year with a home win over the Wallabies.
Ireland should at least run England close and the final match of the Championship in Dublin should be a belter and will probably decide the championship, the Irish provinces have improved dramatically this year and there is a wealth of talent in the 40 man squad.
Wales
Fixtures: R1 Italy (a), R2 England (h), R3 Scotland (a), R4 Ireland (h), R5 France (a)
A 25-21 defeat to England at Twickenham in Round 4 cost Wales the Six Nations title last year. In June they were competitive for the bulk of the first two tests against the All Blacks before succumbing to late pressure and they were thrashed in the third contest to lose the series 3-0. In the November internationals in Cardiff Wales were trounced by Australia but they recovered to complete narrow wins over Argentina and Japan before beating South Africa.
Wales are a very experienced team who have two main challenges in this six nations a) transitioning their style of play to be more expansive and create more opportunities, which has been a struggle for over two years and b) overcoming a lack of depth/power in the tight forwards. In their favour they do have both tournament favourites England then Ireland at home and by winning one of those games could have a major say in the outcome of the championship.
France
Fixtures: R1 England (a), R2 Scotland (h), R3 Ireland (a), R4 Italy (a), R5 Wales (h)
France started heir 2016 campaign with two narrow home wins, surviving a scare against Italy and then edging out Ireland. They lost their next three matches in Wales and Scotland and at home to England by margins of 9 to 11 points. A two match series in Argentina in June was shared 1-1 and two big home tests in November saw them 23-25 to an under-strength Australia side before they gave the All Blacks a decent game in Paris, albeit in a 24-19 defeat.
France are not the best travelers and have three away games (and the toughest start of all, at Twickenham) and beyond that the major challenge is convert their talent into consistent performances, an achievement lacking for the last five years where their highest six nations finish has been 3rd.
France played with a lot of ambition last year and off-loaded at every opportunity. Against New Zealand and Australia in the autumn they really cut down on that and played far more pragmatically. Their team for Twickenham tomorrow contains a massive pack, and it should be a real arm-wrestle.
Scotland
Fixtures: R1 Ireland (h), R2 France (a), R3 Wales (h), R4 England (a), R5 Italy (h)
The Scots lost narrowly at home to England and away to Wales before completing back to back wins in Italy and at home to France in last year’s tournament. They came unstuck in Dublin in their final match and in June they won both tests away to Japan. The November internationals included another last gasp defeat to Australia and a narrow win over Argentina.
This year Scotland should really make substantial progress, and Glasgow’s performance in making the knock-out stages of the European Champions Cup for the first time, with the bulk of the national side, is an encouraging portent. A talented crop of players has lacked the experience to close out games for two years now.
Italy
Fixtures: R1 Wales (h), R2 Ireland (h), R3 England (a), R4 France (h), R5 Scotland (a)
A 23-21 defeat to France in Paris in Round 1 last year was as near as Italy got to a victory in the 2016 Six Nations. In June a narrow defeat to Argentina was followed by wins over USA and Canada and in November a 68-10 hiding off the All Blacks in Rome was followed by easily their best result of the year, a 20-18 victory over South Africa in Florence.
A new coaching set up is in place, but realistically with the Italian provinces still performing poorly both in Europe and the Pro 12 one win would be progress for Italy this Championship.
Market thoughts:
England are clearly the most likely winners but odds-on and having to play in Dublin aren’t great value for the title. Ireland at 5/2 should be in with a shot of winning the Championship going into that last game where they are currently 5/4 to beat England.
None of Wales, Scotland and France should threaten the top two for the title, or finish below Italy for the wooden spoon but there is a good argument for improvement from France and Scotland in particular and an upset result along the way over the next two months is certainly possible. No Grand Slam looks most likely
I am going to offer up two “at a price” each way against the field in a competitive looking top Six Nations try-scorer market. Four tries won this in each of the last two years (George North, Jonathan Joseph). My two would be Tommy Seymour (Scotland wing) and Liam Williams (Wales wing/full-back) both at 25/1+. Both great finishers (Seymour in particular has been in blistering form for Glasgow in the Pro12) and every chance we’ll see them with 2+ tries over the tournament and around and about the top 4 we’d need for a place at least.
There is a particular opportunity here because the odds on favourites England, presumably likely to be the top points scorers in the championship, have four wingers vying for two spots when fit (May, Nowell, Watson, Daly) and rotation and thus splitting the try-scoring tallies is likely over the course of their five games.
5 points each-way Tommy Seymour Top six nations Try Scorer 28/1 Ladbrokes and SkyBet 25 /1 Bet Victor (1/4 1,2,3,4)
5 points each-way Liam Williams Top six nations Try Scorer 33/1 William Hill and Paddy Power 28/1 Betfred (1/4 1,2,3,4)
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders Football Analysis: January 2017 to date: +£3481 betting £10 a point, +ROI 52%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,292 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.84%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
