Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th August 2017
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the Premier League season
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar
- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Montreal
- Golf, the USPGA Championship at Quail Hollow North Carolina
- Athletics, the final weekend of the World Championships in London
- Cricket, the penultimate weekend of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.
Coming up on Betting Emporium
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NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
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US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!
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Free Tip
Millwall v Bolton Wanderers Sky Bet Championship Saturday 3pm
Two promoted teams meet in the second league game of the season on Saturday. Both lost their opening games, Millwall 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and Bolton 3-2 at home to Leeds.
Off the pitch the two sides are very different. Millwall, who won the league one play-offs, punch above their weight as they are financially very thrifty. Bolton are still struggling with the impact of over-spending under previous regimes, are under a transfer embargo (and facing a recently adjourned winding up petition) and the Football League has put salary cap and maximum squad size (23 professional players) restrictions on the club as part of their rules on clubs under embargo.
Bolton played pre-season with, to some social media amusement, up to ten trialists per game as they shopped around to find bargains.
In Bolton’s squad of 23 they lost three of their better players to injury in week one. Their star player ,midfielder Josh Vela, was ruled out long-term with an ankle injury, veteran centre back David Wheater had to play with a back injury and has been sent to a specialist this week and winger Sammy Amoebi, a star of the promotion campaign, was injured too. Bolton may have to seek permission from the Football League to add a player to their quota.
The squad is so thin that midweek in the League Cup, four first year scholars played. It is set to be a very long season for manager Phil Parkinson under the operating constraints.
Of course the embargo, squad restrictions and financial struggles are well known, so what is the angle here? Well almost every team in the division can be expected to be odds on at home to Bolton with the visitors in such a state of flux, with the possible exception of a Burton Albion.
So why for Saturday would Millwall be available at 21/20? It is, after all, a notoriously tough place to visit. The unfashionable nature of a promoted side with a low profile squad might be one reason. Millwall themselves are expected to struggle this season. They also lost at Forest a week ago.
This week, almost by accident, I found myself looking at the stats for that game. Millwall’s cumulative xG (expected goals) was calculated at 3.25, and Forest’s at 0.51 which the analyst who compiled the report suggested would mean an away win 92% of the time
The match was on Sky Sports and I went to watch the “highlights.” Forest won with one (cliché alert) “moment of magic”
I then read match reports and post match interviews
Nottingham Forest manager Mark Warburton said:
"Millwall were very good. They deserved something from the game. They were direct, they were effective. They won the first ball and created chances”.
Millwall manager Neil Harris said:
"We dominated the game against a really good Forest side. The players executed the game plan perfectly. We worked into good positions and created good chances. It was a top performance. “
I think Millwall should be odds on at home against Bolton as the almost the entire rest of the division would be.
10 points Millwall to beat Bolton Wanderers 11/10 Bet365 or Betfred.
A brave new dawn.
Last week the expansion of the Guinness Pro12 to 14 teams was confirmed for next season, following the addition of two South African franchises in the Cheetahs (from Bloemfontein) and the Kings (Port Elizabeth).
There has been consistent speculation for weeks that both South African outfits would join the competition run by the Celtic League, which currently includes four teams from Ireland and Wales plus two each from Scotland and Italy.
The South African Rugby Union, in agreement with SANZAAR, the governing body behind Super Rugby agreed to cut both sides from the tournament ahead of the 2018 season as part of a reduction from 18 to 15 teams..
A six-year deal has been agreed between SARU and the Pro12 with the inclusion of the South African teams handing the Pro12 a significant financial boost thanks to increased TV revenue of around £6 million per year.
The new 'Pro14' will see the teams split into two conferences of seven, made up of two sides from Ireland, two from Wales and one each from Scotland, Italy and South Africa.
The new Pro 14 is significant development in professional rugby, and could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres
Increasing frustration over the years from South African players and supporters regarding the travel times and time differencethat comes with playing in Super Rugby has often led to discussions over whether a competition with teams in Europe would be better for player welfare, given that for the majority of the year South Africa is only an hour's time difference ahead of the British Isles and Ireland.
Now with the arrival of the Cheetahs and Kings those theories can be put into practice, with the newcomers expected to play their overseas away fixtures in blocks to cut down on travel time back and forth between South Africa and Europe.
The Cheetahs and Kings are the only two South African sides to have never played in a Super Rugby final, finishing the current 2017 season in 13th and 11th place respectively. However, the Kings comfortably surpassed expectations in their second year back in the competition, winning six matches including a shock victory against the Waratahs in Sydney.
Meanwhile, the Cheetahs, despite being defensively suspect, have become one of the most attractive sides to watch in Super Rugby thanks to their dangerous wingers Raymond Rhule and Sergeal Petersen, who have both featured for South Africa within the last year.
Expectations for both sides will be low in their first season, as they adapt to new environments and styles of opponent. Adding them to the Pro12 marks a new chapter and adds a new level of interest to a league that has lagged behind the Aviva Premiership and France's Top 14.
New Pro 14 - significant development in professional rugby, could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres.
With little time delay for broadcasters, no jet lag and the promise of far more practical travel schedules, the Sharks, Stormers, Lions and Bulls may fancy a piece of this too. Super Rugby is in a state of flux and if rumours are to be believed the partnership between the big three southern hemisphere nations has soured somewhat. Whether it works remains to be seen,but the idea and ambition is laudable
For the old Pro 12, it looks well worth a shot. If it works, it might be a major step along a route where a final aim may be seeing South Africa play in the Six Nations.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the Sky Bet football Leagues seasons
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, the final day of Glorious Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.
- Tennis, ATP Citi Open in Washington, ATP Mexico and ATP Kitzbuhel in Austria
- Golf, the World Golf Championships, WGC- Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone GC.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Final, Lions v Crusaders in Johannesburg on Saturday
- Cricket, the fourth Test between England and South Africa at Old Trafford.
Coming up on Betting Emporium
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NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
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US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
Free Tip
US PGA Championship 2017
The final major championship of the year takes place next week at Quail Hollow Club, North Carolina, normally the home of the Wells Fargo Championship. Since the 2016 Wells Fargo tournament the course has undergone major renovation ahead of hosting its first major championship
Quail Hollow has produced some big name winners in the past including McIlroy ( x2), Tiger Woods and Fowler. It is the first major venue since Congressional in 2011 to be a regular PGA Tour host course. It is a 7,600 yard Par 71, a very typical PGA Championship venue where power will always be an advantage.
At the USPGA Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Dufner (2013) Jason Day (2015) and Jimmy Walker (2016) all captured first-time Majors .All can hit the ball a long way as can Rory McIlroy who won this title in 2012 at Kiawah Island and 2014 at Valhalla. With winning player driving distances in the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow measuring 291 yards, 321 yards, 334 yards, 306 yards, 286 yards, 303 yards and 314 yards since 2010 , that’s an obvious starting point for the type of player we are looking for.
There is a catch though.It is felt that the course changes could lead to higher scores because of thickened rough and a faster track. Jimmy Walker played the new course a few months ago and said
"We're used to playing here with rye grass everywhere. It has a potential, now with the pure Bermuda grass layout, to play really firm and really fast. The greens ought to be fast, and that's the biggest variable, I would think.”
With a course the length of Quail Hollow you'd expect driving distance to be key. However in reality any regular 290+ yard hitter cannot be ruled out, especially if they're straight hitters. The Bermuda grass thick rough here will act as a brake on the bombers. Greens in Regulation at Quail Hollow is the joint most important stat for winners here.
Looking further at variables we have to be aware of, 14 of the last 17 PGA Champions (82%) had already won a tournament in the season prior to winning the PGA Championship.
Since Firestone became the PGA ‘warm up’ in 2006, the winner of the USPGA haS always been in the Bridgestone field and has always finished in the top 22 of the tournament. The timing of this column means I am writing before the conclusion of the WGC-Bridgestone, so you can apply your own filter is the selection below doesn’t feature at all at Firestone!
The aim here once more is not to look at the top of the market but find value at a price hopefully with game characteristics that might suit the track, and relevant form.
Daniel Berger has six top 10 finishes this year, with a win at the Fedex St Jude Classic and two second places. His run of recent results is impressive with twelve rounds under 70 in 17 rounds at:
1st St Jude Classic
2nd Travelers Championship
Missed Cut US Open
5th John Deere Championship
Tied 27th The Open
A 300 yard driver, on the USPGA tour stats he’s top 30 in greens in regulation too and 12th in birdie average this year.
He looks to have a game that suits the course (long, straight and can putt) and is a top 20 ranked player who flies just enough under the radar, for now, to be available at 66-1 each way.
Current each way odds in the market range from 5 places 1/4 to 6 places 1/5 with the possibility of enhanced terms next week as the marketing departments focus on the event
6 points each way Daniel Berger to win the USPGA Championship (80-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) 66/1 Bet Victor and William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 66/1 Bet365 and Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
Extra Terrestrial
In June English cricket announced a record £1.1bn deal that sees the game return to the BBC for the first time in two decades. Sky and the BBC will share live content during a five-year deal that starts in 2020. The BBC will show live coverage of 10 matches in the new T20 competition, including the final, as well as two England T20 internationals. The BBC also won from Channel 5 the highlights of all England's men and women international fixtures and exclusive digital clips from all formats.
Sky won live rights to all England’s home international cricket, county cricket and women’s cricket. It beat BT Sport with a bid of £200m per year as the ECB successfully exploited the competition between the two broadcasters to more than double the £445m they earned from their last broadcast rights auction in 2012.
The rights deal has put cricket back in the top bracket of live rights in this country. The money will fund the new T20 competition, increased payments to the counties, grassroots initiatives and pay rises for the England players who will now demand a greater slice of cricket’s income.
The ECB put the rights on the market a year earlier than expected in order to complete the deal before the next round of Premier League football rights swallowed up budgets at Sky and BT Sport. The gamble has paid off with the ECB managing to persuade Sky to let go of exclusivity, allowing the board to re-launch cricket in 2020 and market its new tournament to a wider audience on the BBC.
The Sky deal brings in the money, and the BBC content will please the more traditional audience, but it is the digital clips the corporation can promote on a Facebook pages and other social media channels that will help the ECB reach the young audience it wants to attract to cricket.
It is apparent that the new T20 league with eight “franchise” teams is why the BBC has shown interest in cricket again.. T20 is an easier format to schedule for terrestrial broadcasters and the audience to understand. For a board launching a new product, the BBC is clearly the best platform.
The new competition is not popular with cricket’s ageing traditional county audience who are loyal to existing clubs and in many cases the current T20 Blast competition sells out but putting a new competition on free to air is a game changer. The non cricket fan will be exposed to it, for starters
England players will want to be part of those ten live games and as it will clash with international cricket the challenge for the board will be to try and maintain interest at the same time in test cricket. The worry is that Test match cricket will slide under the radar even more than it is now.
Pay talks with the players will now commence and clearly the ECB will not be immune to the sorts of issues that were to the fore in the recent Australian pay dispute. The central contracts with England cricketers run alongside the current television deal and expire in 2019. The ECB has already held talks with other sports to try to avoid the extra revenue going to players and agents.
For the counties the extra money is a chance to drive down debt in the game which currently stands at about £160m with interest payments draining them of cash. The broadcasters will be part of the decision making process for shaping the new T20 tournament and will have an input into team-names and locations. For the ECB’s commercial department the exposure on the BBC will help to sell sponsorships for the new tournament and attract new investors.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York
- Tennis, ATP Atlanta Open and the ATP German Championships in Hamburg
- Golf, the RBC Canadian open and Porsche European Open in Germany.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Semi Finals, Crusaders v Chiefs and Lions v Hurricanes
- Cricket, the third Test between England and South Africa at The Oval.
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Coming up on Betting Emporium
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NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
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US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
Free Tip by Neil Channing:
Gigaset International Stakes, Ascot Saturday 3pm
Peak Practice
Since the end of last season, Premier League transfer spending has passed £820m (gross, £470m net) with 35 days to go until the end of this transfer window. The two Manchester clubs account for over £250m of that net spend on their own. Total spend across the league will likely top £1bn well before the window closes. If anything illustrates the vast sums of money sloshing around in the game, it is this. There is a huge transfer from the pockets of consumers, via TV companies and then the clubs to the pockets of players and their agents in fees and salaries.
The new Sky and BT deals, running to 2019, were for £5.136 billionl, 83% higher than the previous deal and £11m per game.
A recent BBC survey found:
- Nearly half of fans say they have streamed a match online through an unofficial provider. Just over a third do so at least once a month and about one in five at least once a week. In the 18 to 34 age bracket, this leapt up to 65%.
- The main reasons include a friend/family member doing it and they just watch; the quality of the stream; and because sports TV packages are considered not good value for money.
- Just under a third of fans do not know whether it is illegal to stream live Premier League matches online from unofficial providers, but another third believe it is always illegal.
With any number of ways to watch games illegally, on PCs and tablets, or on the TV via Kodi, it appears that many people are now opting not to pay an expensive subscription to Sky and BT Sport. The viewing figures for Premier League football in 2016-17 were the lowest for seven seasons.
Some analysts ascribe this drop to the rise in popularity of cheaper streaming services, such as Netflix and Amazon, which with prices starting at £8 a month may be creating an expectation among consumers that pay-TV should be cheaper. They point to a demographic shift where people, especially younger groups, are reluctant to spend so much
On a Radio 5 Live phone-in on the subject, most callers who admitted to watching these streams were unrepentant, despite the host’s accusations of theft. One of the main points raised was that while the rest of the world can watch all Premier League games we can’t. So if your team are playing away, and everyone from Paris to Bogota can watch the game, why wouldn’t you, when the game is a couple of mouse clicks away?
Sky and BT are currently engaged in stamping out small fires, shutting down streaming sites and prosecuting Kodi box providers. This week the Premier League has been awarded a High Court order for the new 2017-18 season, which will help it combat the illegal streaming of games. The blocking order will require UK ISPs to prevent people from illegally accessing streams of its matches. A similar order was obtained for the final two months of the 2016-17 season. That saw more then 5,000 server IP addresses blocked that had previously been streaming Premier League content.
As the viewing market changes around them Sky has scrapped its numbered sports channels and replaced them with themed offerings focused on specific sports (led by football, golf and cricket) to energise viewers with a branding revamp and a cheaper viewing package two-thirds cheaper than current prices, a major shakeup of their strategy.
Sky hope to entice new pay-TV subscribers and the new strategy will allow Sky to charge £18 for its cheapest package. An aim might be to get reluctant to spend groups in on cheap packages and look to up-sell at a later date.
There are 10m freeview households, assumed to be budget conscious. Sky’s Now TV internet service broke the monthly sports subscription model on which the company built its business over more than two decades, offering pay-as-you-go sport. Now TV sports day passes have proved popular for fans looking to dip in for one-off big events. More and more Freeview households are starting to spend on pay-TV in some way, 45% take a subscription service but it is mostly Netflix or Amazon, to date.
If these moves,both strategi and legal, don’t succeed in arresting the viewing decline, then when the next TV deal is negotiated the halcyon days of summer 2017 with £50m full backs and £30m uncapped goalkeepers may be over. At which point this week’s prophecies from Daniel Levy (“the spending by other Premier League clubs is unsustainable.”) and Jose Mourinho ("some clubs are paying "too much"and are creating a "very strange and out-of-control" market.") will come to pass. Until then, footballers and their agents can make hay.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 22nd-23rd July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Haydock, Lingfield, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Jumps Meetings at Cartmel and Market Rasen
- Tennis, the ATP Hall of Fame Championships in Newport, Rhode Island. ATP Croatia and Sweden Opens
- Golf, the final two rounds of the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Quarter finals
- Cricket, NatWest T20 Blast group stage fixtures.
- Cycling, the final weekend of the Tour De France with the Individual time trial followed by the last stage in Paris.
Free Tip:
2017 Super Rugby Quarter finals
The knockout stages of 2017 Super rugby season begin this weekend with the four quarter-finals. Four conference winners host four wildcards, seeded by group stage results.
The Lions moved ahead of the Crusaders and into top seed on the overall standings following a 27-10 victory over the Sharks in Johannesburg last weekend as the Crusaders lost their season long unbeaten record in defeat to the Hurricanes.
The Lions will now face the Sharks at home in the quarter-finals and hold home advantage for the playoffs should they advance all the way to the final.
The second placed Crusaders will host the Highlanders on Saturday while the Chiefs make the trip to Cape Town to play the Stormers. In the other quarter-final on Friday the Hurricanes beat the Brumbies in Canberra 35-16.
Two of the quarter finals were expected to be quite one sided. The Hurricanes were 12 point favourites in Canberra against the weakest of the group winners the Brumbies and won by 19. The number one seed Lions are 15 point favourites at home to the Sharks
The other two games should be closer. The Crusaders and Highlanders met twice during this season. The Crusaders won both, 30-27 in Dunedin and 25-22 in Christchurch and are 5 point favourites this weekend
The final game of the weekend is on Saturday as follows:
3 (seed)-Stormers v 6 (seed)-Chiefs, Cape Town, 4pm
This is a repeat of last year’s Super Rugby quarter final which the Chiefs won comfortably, 60-21 with brilliant running rugby.
This is slated to be the closest of the four quarter finals, in part because this season the Chiefs have already travelled to Cape Town this season where they lost 34-26 to the Stormers. This season the Stormers played all five New Zealand sides but won two and lost three, with the losses all coming on a tour of New Zealand, so not too surprising.
The Stormers secured the third seed in the play offs by winning Africa Conference 1 with ten wins and five losses in a group in which the next strongest side recorded four wins across the season. They enter the quarter finals having beaten the Bulls 41-33 away fro home last weekend. The Lions are the only side to beat them in Cape Town in 2017 and they ran in a total of 20 tries in beating the Cheetahs, Sunwolves and Bulls as part of their preparations for the play offs.
The Chiefs are the sixth seed, and the third best record of the five New Zealand franchises with 12 wins 2 losses and a draw. They finished the regular season with a 28-10 win at home to the Brumbies.
This should be very tight and interestingly the home side are under-dogs at 11/8 outright (Chiefs 4/6 best) and +3.5 points 10/11 on the handicap
Of course the New Zealand franchises are far stronger as a group than the South African teams and that in itself explains the Chiefs being favourites here but in Cape Town I like backing the big physical Stormers outright for this game, which I would price as genuinely 50-50.
8 points Stormers to beat the Chiefs 2.5 Matchbook or Betfair or 11/8 Bet365, William Hill, Skybet
A Not so Grand Prix?
The British Grand Prix boasts the highest attendance of any race in the Grand Prix calendar and the highest annual attendance for a British weekend sporting event. Yet Silverstone has now triggered its break clause with Formula 1 owners Liberty Media citing losses over the two years meaning that 2019 will be the last year that the British GP takes place at Silverstone unless a new contract is agreed..
Silverstone sought to reach a compromise agreement with F1's new owners Liberty Media but these talks failed. Liberty offered a series of options to try to help Silverstone but the track believed these were not satisfactory.
The BRDC owns and operates the circuit having invested £50m over the last decade to develop Silverstone. The current contract was negotiated by a previous management team, which left the business a few years ago. The BRDC says it is is not financially viable to deliver the British Grand Prix under the terms of the current contract.
“The net revenue is not enough to cover the overheads let alone turn a profit, the event produced losses of £2.8m in 2015 and £4.8m in 2016, and we expect to lose a similar amount this year”.
Silverstone has hosted the race since 1950 and its current contract has been in place to host the GP since 2009, agreed with the previous owners of F1 under Bernie Ecclestone’s tenure. The 17-year contract had been described as "the only deal on the table at the time" to preserve the event's short-term future, but a 5% promoter fee escalator has meant that costs have increased from £11.5m in 2010 to £16.2m in 2017. Had the fee kept in line with UK inflation, it would have increased to only £13.6 million this year (£2.8m less). By 2026, (the last year of the contractual obligation) the fee will have risen to £25m.
The break clause had to be activated before last weekend’s Grand Prix.Asit stands with that clause now triggered the race will run in 2018 and 2019 as normal and discussions between Liberty and the BRDC will continue over the circuit’s future as host.
The 2009 contract was predicated on updates to the track, including a new pit and paddock complex, but Red Bull boss Christian Horner was forthright in his criticisms last week.
"They either shouldn't have signed it in the first place or they got their maths wrong."
"They spent a fortune on the pits and put them in the wrong place"
"They've created a paddock that has zero atmosphere at one of the most historic race tracks in the UK so there was some serious mis-judgement and management,”
Silverstone is possibly the most pressing circuit problem for the new F1owners Liberty which wants to protect the classic races (Monaco, Silverstone, Spa and Monza) but whose organizers are struggling with onerous contracts secured against them by Ecclestone. If Liberty reduces the 5% annual increase in fee for one race, the rest might reasonably expect the same treatment.
The UK motorsport industry today is worth an estimated £10.5 billion - employing over 45,000 people and exporting over 75% of its output. That is larger than the equivalent sectors in Germany, Italy and France combined. 80% of F1 teams are based in the UK.
In a big picture sense the British Grand Prix saga is strange. The UK industry offers high value employment, exports, engineering excellence, prestige and a large tax take. This is potentially being lost over a dispute over sums that are small in the overall scheme of things. A compromise and a new deal is likely, albeit with some brinkmanship first.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 15th-16th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Tennis, The final weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, On the European tour the Scottish Open at Dundonald links. On the USPGA the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.
- Cricket, the second Test between England and South Africa continues at Trent Bridge.
- Cycling, Stages 14 and 15 on the Tour De France
Free Tip:
The 2017 Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale in Merseyside next week for the first time since 2008 when Padraig Harrington won.
Birkdale is in the dunes on the Irish Sea coastline, a tough tee-to-green challenge. If the prevailing wind is unkind, Royal Birkdale becomes a nasty challenge with Mark O'Meara (1998) and Harrington winning with scores of Even Par (280) and +3 (283) respectively in the last two Opens hosted there.
Birkdale is a course where scores are possible if conditions allow. From a driving perspective, the course has with no blind tee-shots (mainly elevated tees) and the statistics from 2008 suggest that missing fairways by a small margin offers little penalty. Fairways are flat and the real trouble from off the tee is hitting fairway bunkers which are penal. Green complexes are flat and quality approach shots get rewarded with makeable putts. However if the wind blows….
Henrik Stenson's win at Royal Troon last year yet again confirmed that in-form players should be followed at the Open. It makes sense that those who are struggling with their games are unlikely to find them on a links course. 11 Champions from the last 17 Opens (65%) had won a tournament in the same season prior to winning it
Birkdale has seen some surprise finishers at the top end. Amateurs have been placed in the last two Birkdale Opens. Justin Rose made his first impression in 1998. So too Chris Wood in 2008, in the same year 53 year-old Greg Norman played in the final group and finished third.
My aim here isn’t to offer a name at the head of the betting but to offer a selection at a price, where the player looks under-rated in the betting market.
Swedish golfer Alex Noren is one name I kept coming back to. When he won the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth recently it was his ninth win on the European Tour, four of which came in a 10-event stretch from July to November last year.
Fellow countryman Henrik Stenson finished third at Wentworth and said afterwards of Noren
“It would be hard to say that you can't see a major for him in the future if he keeps on playing like that,"
That win was his fifth victory in 22 starts and in this period nobody on any major tour has won more events. I like the fact that he wins (obviously) having spent a decade backing golfers that should but don’t (Lee Westwood, come out now).
One particular part of his game that I like, especially if the wind gets up, is his excellent short game and scrambling skills.Now the world number 8, we find him in the Open betting generally available at 50-1 in the lower reaches of the top 20. Why is that?
Well at 50-1 we can’t have everything going for us and Noren lacks successful experience at the back end of majors including missed cuts at both the US Open and the Masters this year. Going back a couple of years he missed 7 out of 8 majors during 2014 and 2015 after a wrist injury.
However look a little closer and you find that Noren finished in the top 20 in 2008 at Birkdale, having gone into the weekend in the top 10. He also finished top 10 at Lytham in 2012 and won last years Scottish open on the links at Castle Stuart the week before the Troon Open. For balance,he's just missed the cut at Dundonald this year following up a 70 yesterday with 76 today.
I think he is definitely one for the portfolio her though. At the time of writing each way terms are going up across the industry, some with enhanced terms as the marketing departments get their mitts on one of the big events of the year. Skybet have gone TEN places (a fifth the odds) and whilst the extra places are great (in a market where the vast majority are more likely to place than to win) they have ducked the price on Noren at 35-1. Across the industry terms range from Skybet's at one end through 1/5 the odds 7 or 8 places and onto 1/4 the odds 6 places and then the 1/4 the odds 5 places that you would see most weekends at the other..
Of course any player can be on the wrong end of weather or an unfavourable draw in a major too and we are four or five days away from being able to factor that in. Taking the best available combination of terms/price today for this column
6 points each way Alex Noren,The Open 50/1 Betfred, Sportingbet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5, 6 or 50/1 Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
“Wow, this is rugby”
"Wow," said New Zealand captain Kieran Read to Sam Warburton three minutes before the end of the game "This is rugby…"
At the conclusion of the New Zealand-British Lions test series last weekend, over the three tests the All Blacks had led for 153 of the 240 minutes played, were level for 84 minutes and were behind for just three minutes in the series yet only drew the series
It was quite the feat for the Lions to burgle a draw in the third test, and if you had asked the Lions six weeks ago whether they would go to New Zealand and draw a Test series they would have snapped your arm off. It is a major achievement and a huge shot in the arm for a rugby concept increasingly under threat from a professional club game and an ever more crowded international schedule. Add to that the extremely tough tour schedule (the Lions won five of the ten games overall) and the tour coming at the end of a long Northern Hemisphere season and going home 1-1 was a result to remember.
In the first two Tests, decided by a cumulative total of just three points, Beauden Barrett missed 14 kickable points and of course a Lions win came against 14 men. To find parity in the final test having been carved open by the All Blacks' speed and vision repeatedly in the first half was close to miraculous; on another day they could have been 20 points down before the break but the All Blacks fumbling three clear chances let the Lions off the hook.
As a fan of outlier statistics, some of them from the third game are worth mentioning.
In the third test New Zealand were outscored in the second half by 6 points their worst home second half since 1998and the worst in Auckland since 1986. It was only the third time New Zealand led by six or more points at half time at home and didn’t win, the previous occasions were in 1937 and 1965. Finally of the last 58 occasions the All Blacks had led at Eden Park, they had gone on to win 57 of them.
From a betting point of view the three test series produced an 11/2 second test winner and a 35-1 third test draw and away from some of the sub-markets (half time winning margins were New Zealand 1-7 points in two of the three tests, to name one favourite line that won ) but probably provided slim pickings for most punters especially as the Lions in the second and third tests actually won the second halves and shredded point lines based around the “fact” that the All Blacks always storm away in the last twenty minutes.
How will history look back on the tour? The temptation is to go hyperbolic, “the tour that saved the Lions” but there are still major challenges ahead in the professional era. History should remember this as one of the better Lions squads with some great touring performances (Jonathan Davies, Maro Itoje, Sean O’Brien to name three) well led and well coached. It might also remember this as a rebuilding phase for the All Blacks, after the retirements of McCaw, Carter, Smith and Mealamu and where the next generation of superstars (Jordie Barrett, Reiko Ioane to name two of them) were blooded but probably not a vintage side. Knowing the All Blacks by the next world cup in 2017, it most likely will be.
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