The Road To Riches: Weekend of 6th -7th May

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, The Premier League programme includes West Ham v Tottenham tonight and Chelsea v Middlesbrough on Monday Night Football.

- Racing, the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Also meetings on the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk. Jumps fixtures at Hexham and Uttoxeter

- Tennis, ATP events in Munich, Estoril and Istanbul as the clay court season ahead of the French Open continues.

- Golf, on the European Tour the Portugal Open on the USPGA the Wells Fargo Championship in North Carolina.

- Cricket, the domestic international season begins with ODIs against Ireland including on Sunday at Lords.

French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28^th May to 11^th June 2017

Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.

Free Tip:

The 2000 Guineas (Newmarket, Saturday 3.35pm) by Neil Channing.

 I'm having 15 Points each-way Barney Roy at 4/1 1/5th 123 with Paddy Power and SportingBet (1/4 123 with Betfred is obviously good if you can).

Is football’s relationship with the gambling industry healthy?

In amongst the column inches last week for Joey Barton’s 18 month ban for betting including on matches he himself played in, there was a statement from Barton, part of which is quoted below

“I think if the FA is truly serious about tackling the culture of gambling in football, it needs to look at its own dependence on the gambling companies, their role in football and in sports broadcasting, rather than just blaming the players who place a bet.

Surely they need to accept there is a huge clash between their rules and the culture that surrounds the modern game, where anyone who watches football on TV or in the stadia is bombarded by marketing, advertising and sponsorship by betting companies, and where much of the coverage now is intertwined with the broadcasters’ own gambling interests.

That all means this is not an easy environment in which to try to stop gambling, or even to encourage people within the sport that betting is wrong.

If the FA is serious about tackling gambling I would urge it to reconsider its own dependence on the gambling industry. I say that knowing that every time I pull on my team’s shirt, I am advertising a betting company.”

He has a point. Burnley are sponsored by Dafabet and the shirts of nine of the Premier League’s other 19 clubs are also sponsored by gambling companies this season. Skybet sponsors the football league and Stoke City are owned by Bet365 to give other examples of the close links between the two industries.

Gambling companies like this space because it's a very, very efficient way to reach their core audience of sports bettors. The most bet upon sports product is football and within that the most bet upon football product is the English Premier League

The culture across football is very pro-gambling and Barton makes the case that football needs to change that culture. He is only the latest in a line of footballers who have had major gambling problems, for example Matthew Etherington and Michael Chopra.

Whilst it is possible to have some sympathy for Barton’s viewpoint it is a simple fact that nobody forces anybody to place a bet, the issues for these footballers concern addiction and lack of control.

John Bramwell, deputy chief executive of the PFA said:

“I think gambling now is very much in the public psyche when you look at the number of gambling companies that are involved in professional sport, not just football, but across the sports. When you watch football now there is a lot of information in front of you about how to bet, companies are making very tempting offers.”

As we all know watching televised football, breaks will flash up the latest ‘live odds’. What is perhaps less obvious is the degree to which gambling takes place among the players. The Professional Players Federation this year conducted a survey which concluded that a significant number of Premier League players ‘under-perform’ due to stresses about potentially dealing with big financial losses. Many high-profile players have since come out to describe the manner in which the ‘Premier League lifestyle’ lends itself so easily to betting problems, and how more needs to be done to tackle the issue.

It is said that the FA has 53 cases of footballers gambling on games within their own division pending. It is looking likely that we will see more of these charges being made in the coming months and years.

Barton’s conviction and statement raises the right sort of questions for the governing body. Is football’s relationship with the gambling industry healthy? Can they live together honestly and harmoniously? Are players given the right sort of advice? Most importantly for the avid supporter, can they trust what they see on the pitch?

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase

(correct at 22/03/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th April

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, The Premier League programme this weekend includes Everton v Chelsea and Tottenham v Arsenal plus the last weekend of the Football League season.

- Racing, the Sandown mixed meeting including the Bet 365 Gold Cup plus meetings on the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.

- Snooker the final weekend of the World Championships at the Crucible in Sheffield.

- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi.

- Tennis, ATP events in Barcelona and Budapest as the clay court season ahead of the French Open continues.

- Golf, on the European Tour the Volvo China Open and on the USPGA the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in Louisiana.

- Cricket, IPL group matches continue with two double headers this weekend.

French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28^th May to 11^th June 2017

Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.

Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley

The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%

Free Tip:

IPL 2017 Gujarat Lions v Mumbai Indians (Saturday 3.30pm Sky Sports)

Moving into the second half of the group phase matches in this year’s IPL the contrast between these two sides is quite marked.

Gujarat had a very disjointed start. Some questionable team selection strategies and one of the least effective bowling attacks in the competition meant that they lost thereof their first four games conceding 184/0, 174/4 and 140/1 to opposing batting line ups. Since then in large part due to the introduction of Australian bowler Andrew Tye who has taken 12 wickets in only five matches to be the second highest wicket taker in the competition, results have improved somewhat and Gujarat now have three wins from eight games, still sixth in the league table and outside the play-off spots. The heart of their batting line up, McCullum, Raina and Finch is competitive against any team.

Mumbai have been far more consistent, and come to the match after a week off in 2^nd place with six wins from eight games. They have one of the better bowling line ups in the competition. McClenaghan and Bumrah who have combined for 21wickets so far and a batting line up packed with match winners deep into the order

It is that batting order that I wanted to focus on in one of the markets for this game, top Mumbai Indians batsman.

A typical Mumbai batting order this season is as follows

Parthiv Patel (169 runs in 8 matches)

Jos Buttler (230, 8)

Nitish Rana (266, 8)

Rohit Sharma (112, 8)

Kieron Pollard (199, 8)

Hardik Pandya (133, 8)

Krun Pandya (105, 7)

Now in this market the best prices available at sensible bookmakers are

Buttler 3/1

Sharma 100/30

Patel 4/1

Rana 9/2

Pollard 10/1

Pandya x2 16/1

It stood out to me quite clearly. Why is the uncapped 23 year old Indian batsman Nitish Rana fourth favourite here with three firms? He was the fourth best run scorer in the competition this season before this round of matches, he’s hit the most sixes (16) and he bats number three so the vast majority of the time sufficient overs at the crease is not a problem.

It can only be name recognition, or lack of it, by those setting prices.

Rana is fun to watch. Having waited a couple of years in the back end of IPL squads he was picked up by Mumbai for 2017 and he’s hit three 50s in this IPL and top scored the last time these two teams met.

He broke through in domestic cricket for Delhi in one day matches in 2015-2016 when he scored 299 runs and 21 sixes, both the most by any batsman in the tournament. He slumped in the recent domestic season and was dropped.At that point he sought advice on technical flaws from Gambhir and luminaries such as Tendulkar and Jayawardene.

He said this week

“Well I had a few technical issues. As my form dipped and I got out early in a couple of one-dayers, Gambhir spoke to me regarding my technique. After coming over here, I spoke to Sachin sir and Mahela sir regarding the same and both said that Gambhir was right and from the first day I started practicing that way.”

He could now well be included in India’s delayed Champions trophy squad for the tournament here in June.

The usual caveats about T20 betting exist. It’s one match in the shortest format of the game where variance in results and individual performances is high. Anyone can come off, or conversely get a good ball and be out quickly. Tat said, this does have the potential to be mispriced if Rana performs to the potential shown so far in the competition

8 points Nitish Rana Top Mumbai Indians batsman v Gujarat Lions 5/1 Skybet 9/2 Bet365 4/1 William Hill. (4/1 the lower limit)

Exceptional

Recent news that the NFL is considering disciplinary action against a group of players who took part in a charity arm-wrestling event in Vegas has brought renewed attention to the league’s policy on gambling which prevents players using their name to publicise any form of association with a casino. Because the competition was held at the MGM the players face fines for participating.

The current seven page NFL gambling policy was established in 2015 and applies to all NFL personnel. The policy is aimed at preventing the outcomes of games from being influenced by bettors which is obviously a sensible aim. However the policy also includes language about “gambling associations” and “advertising and promotional activities” that “reasonably can be perceived as constituting affiliation with or endorsement of gambling or gambling-related activities.”

At the same time the NFL sanctions various other activities that it accepts. These include:

• Many teams have sponsorship deals with daily fantasy companies.
• NFL owners were early investors in Draft Kings.
• Several teams are sponsored by casinos.
• State lottery advertising carried on training camp jerseys.

NFL policy makes a specific exception for traditional fantasy football (which it promotes on its own website) while making no mention of daily fantasy. The exception is all about money. The NFL’s earnings from fantasy football are expected to exceed the revenues from TV and attendances in due course and it is in the process of licensing fantasy football in Nevada before expanding around the country. Yet at the same time the NFL is in court to prevent New Jersey from legalising gambling on sport.

Meanwhile the league continues to expand the number of games it plays overseas, in markets like London where sports betting on the NFL is not only legal but growing fast.

The most obvious contradiction of all is the Oakland Raiders’ decision to relocate from to Las Vegas

Last October, with casino magnate Sheldon Adelson as a partner, the Raiders won approval from the state of Nevada for $750 million in public money to build a stadium.

One part of the NFL gambling policy prohibits “Using or allowing others to use one’s name and/or image to promote, advertise, or publicize casinos, other gambling-related establishments, or events sponsored by or otherwise marketed or advertised in connection with casinos or other gambling-related establishments.”

That doesn’t seem to apply to an NFL owner who had partnered with a casino owner to get approval for a publicly financed stadium.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase

(correct at 22/03/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd April

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, A partial Premier League programme with the FA Cup semi finals at Wembley. On Saturday Tottenham v Chelsea and on Sunday Arsenal v Manchester City.

- Racing, on the flat at Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor and Wolverhampton on the all-weather.

- Snooker the middle weekend of the World Championships at the Crucible in Sheffield.

- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters as the clay court season ahead of the French Open continues.

- Golf, on the European Tour the Shenzhen International in China. On the USPGA the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.

- Rugby Union: European Champions Cup semi-finals, Clermont v Leinster in Lyon and Saracens v Munster in Dublin.

- Cricket, IPL group matches continue with two double headers this weekend.

French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28^th May to 11^th June 2017

Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.

Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley

The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%

Free Tip:

Rugby Union European Champions Cup Semi Finals

The matches this weekend, at neutral venues in the home country of one of the semi-finalists, are as follows.

Fifteen of the 42 semi-final matches in the history of the European cup have been won by the ‘away’ club, only a 36% success rate. This is something for both Saracens and Leinster to overcome this weekend

Saturday, Dublin

Munster v Saracens

This could well be a close game for a long way, in part because Saracens’ Owen Farrell and Munster's Tyler Bleyendaal are such accomplished goal-kickers and this season’s tournament top scorers with 97 and 94 points respectively

Saracens are the ERCC holders and dispatched Glasgow with ease in their home quarter final, winning 38-13 with their trademark regimented style that they execute ruthlessly.

Probably the best team in Europe and defending champions this is their sixth ERCC semi final in the modern era and their side has a knowledge of how to win these sorts of games away from home (see Toulon in this season’s group stages where they won a classic). They are and should be favourites here despite having to play an Irish province in Dublin. George Kruis the world class second row is back from a long injury and his line out presence will help ensure the quality ball Farrell needs tolet Saracens play in the right areas

Munster are having a fine and emotional season following the death of their coach in October but what quality of opposition are they beating? Their ERCC group was significantly weaker than Saracens’ and here they are without their famed home advantage that makes them almost unbeatable in Limerick. Here they meet a formidable team. I don't expect Saracens to freeze. The absence of Conor Murray, Munster’s world class scrum half, makes me sceptical.

Saracens are 8/13 outright ( Munster 11/8),Saracens -3 at 10/11 is a viable alternative too

Sunday, Lyon

Clermont Auvergne v Leinster

Clermont, 2^nd in the domestic top 14, dispatched Toulon 29-9 in their home quarter-final where they are a formidable proposition, on a tight ground roared on by passionate fans. Here they are without that advantage in Lyon and they also have a perceived issue to overcome, which is near misses in five ERCC’s in a row including losing two finals to Toulon.

Leinster, top of the Pro 12 having won 17 out of 20 league games this season beat Wasps 32-17 in their home quarter final but, with the draw for the knockout stages set before that stage, now have to go to France to play the top seeds in the tournament Leinster have been at the forefront of the renaissance of the Irish provinces in Europe this season and are an experienced side that forms the bulk of the Irish national team.

This should be very close and be won or lost on the battle up front. Leinster are brilliant in wider areas and have a mobile pack that will look to shift Clermont around. Clermont have a typical French top 14 approach, with a massive pack that will try to bludgeon and get superiority up front and play from there. If Leinster hold them and stay in the game, and they should do with a raft of Irish international forwards (albeit missing O'Brien and Heaslip), they have a decent shot as underdogs here

Clermont are favourites and have shortened into 8/15 or so and -3 at 10/11 just as Saracens are in Saturday’s semi. I am going for the upset though

10 points Leinster to win at 9/5 Betfair Sportsbook (7/4 Paddy Power) 8/5 William Hill 13/8 Ladbrokes

Blasted.

The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) plans to launch a new domestic T20 competition in three years time, to be played in eight cities, involving new franchises yet to be formed. This tournament will not include all the counties and will not encompass the nine Test match grounds

The prospect of this new tournament has been overwhelmingly unpopular with cricket watchers, a hardy breed of loyal (mostly quite mature in years) fans who just want to see their own team play it. The NatWest Blast has also been a success. Attendances at the competition have grown 63% in the last four years

The majority of the counties did not have much choice to vote it through. The recommendation being voted on included the line

“Each first-class county, which has signed the media deed, would receive a guaranteed minimum annual sum of £1.3 million.”

Most, especially those without test match revenue desperately need the money and are fearful for their futures. That said Essex joined Middlesex in saying they would vote against the change

“It is essential that the County Championship, domestic 50-over and T20 competitions are encouraged to grow, and they must be protected.”

"We believe that as a result of the proposed changes, these opportunities will be reduced, that our income overall will suffer and the first-class game will be diminished, in contradiction to the ECB's objective which is to grow the game in this country."

Domestic cricket in England is not a big-city game. At the county level it works best in places like Taunton, Worcester and Canterbury, that do not support football league teams. The ECB marketing belief is that if they inventsa team and market it cleverly to a large population, they will come. The England players will probably not be involved because they will be playing Test cricket.

Of course the financial upside here is clear, and takes Australia’s Big Bash league as its template. The BBL found new audiences, particularly with families and younger fans and the ECB is hoping to secure a terrestrial TV deal for the new T20 competition here. In Australia, with great weather and large grounds in the middle of their cities, those families have walked up many inspired by what they have seen on free‑to‑air television. That upside here (possibly more difficult to achieve given our weather) exists alongside the risk of alienating the existing supporter of T20 cricket.

In 2020 in England the plan is to guarantee that 10 of the T20 games will be shown on free-to- air TV, which is an interesting development. More than a decade ago, when cricket went onto satellite TV there were assurances from the ECB that viewing patterns were changing so rapidly that this would not affect the accessibility of the game to the public. Now comes the tacit admission that this was not the case.

There will be two T20 competitions rather than one in the 2020 season. The new one, which is designed to be the premier tournament, with three overseas players per squad, will take place in the last week of July and throughout August. The existing NatWest Blast is scheduled for the end of May and June and will inevitably be devalued. Clearly there is a place for a major T20 tournament in the UK with all the trimmings, but is there really space for two?

The ECB is turning its back on the T20 Blast success and embracing a high-risk strategy that involves new teams and new identities. If the same money went into marketing the existing competition and brands as they  are expecting to be invested in the new one then you could get the best of both worlds, attract new audiences and take the existing one along too.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase

(correct at 22/03/17)

The Road to Riches: Easter Weekend

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Chelsea

- Racing, on the flat at Brighton, Kempton and Musselburgh. Over the jumps at Carlisle, Haydock, Newton Abbot and Stratford

- Snooker the start of the World Championships at the Crucible in Sheffield

- Tennis, ATP Championships in Morocco and Houston

- Golf, on the European Tour the Hassan Trophy in Morocco. On the USPGA the RBC Heritage Championship in South Carolina

- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix

- Cricket, IPL group matches continue.

French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28^th May to 11^th June 2017

Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.

Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley

The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%

Free Tip:

Snooker: Qualifiers at the Crucible

The gap between some of the top 16 and the qualifiers for the Crucible has narrowed in the modern era. I took a look back at the performance of qualifiers at the Crucible in the last five years and went back and looked at five year periods one and two decades ago to see if that assertion was backed up by results:

20-25 years ago (1991-96) the annual average was 3 of 16 qualifiers beating their seed in the first round

10-15 years ago (2001 to 2006) that had risen to an average of 5 out 16 per year

In the last five years (2011 to 2016) that had risen again to an average of 7 of top 16 and 2016 indeed saw seven seeds lose in the first round.

As this year 15 of the 16 seeds are priced up as favourites to win their first round matches with the average first round price of the 16 qualifiers 9/2, I wondered if there might be an opportunity to take advantage of the trend towards more upsets this year too.

Various reasons are suggested for the increased vulnerability of the seeds at the Crucible in the first round.

One of these would be the change instituted in the qualifying format for the event two years ago where all players outside the top 16 have to play three nineteen frame matches to qualify (Previously seeds 17-32 were placed directly in the third qualifying round ). Qualifiers come to the Crucible battle hardened from in some cases long matches whilst the top 16 have been limited to practice only since the China Open last month, some of them missing that event too. Whilst fatigue can be a factor after 3 best of 19s in the ten days before the Crucible, we can screen out players who have had (in a couple of cases) multiple 10-9s to qualify.

The very late stages of ranking tournaments aside, in the modern Barry Hearn era almost all tournaments in the snooker calendar contain short format matches, best of  9 and best of 11 frames and more so than previously some of these seeds come to the crucible nowadays with little short term experience of long frame matches

Seedings for the Crucible are formulated on rolling two year rankings. In some cases that produces “false” seedings from players out of form in the season just ending but whose results up to two years ago in big tournaments with big ranking points protects their seeding in the short term. Stuart Bingham is the prime example of this. Neil Robertson who has had a poor season is another. Two wins last year, six first round exits this.

The draw for the crucible first round took place today.

Pre-draw Seeds I would have wanted to oppose if prices and the draw aligned were as follows:

3 Stuart Bingham (as above)

6 John Higgins (in markedly worse form than he was in the Autumn)

9 Neil Robertson (as above)

10 Ali Carter (back in the top 16 after winning the world open, only one deep run since)

11 Mark Allen (below average season, has dropped down the rankings)

16 Ryan Day (a deep run in the World Grand Prix to sneak into the sixteen here, but very opposable).

The list of potential qualifiers I was interested in (many a winter day mis-spent watching far-flung ranking tournaments on Eurosport), looking for up and comers due to improve rapidly through the rankings has a Far Eastern flavour which is not an accident as the next generation of players following Ding Junhui is reaching maturity and there are a couple of future stars amongst them. I am not too interested in the likes of Ebdon, Dott and O’Brien, being more interested in young players who can improve beyond their current ranking.

The toughest qualifier is probably Maguire who certainly would have been priced up as favourite against several seeds and is the only qualifier odds on to win through the first round. There are five debutants this year and two made my list, both Chinese. Obviously picking debutants comes with a risk, it’s a big stage, but Bingtao in particular looks born to it.

Yan Bingtao. No one wants him in the draw. He is a 17 year old former world amateur champion, in his first year with a tour card. Has beaten Selby, Allen, Murphy and Wenbo this season

Zhou Yeulong 19 years old, Welsh open quarter finalist this year

Xiao Guodong, not the prospect Bingtao or Yeulong are (and he’s 10-11 years older than both) but rebounded from a poor 2015 with better results this season. Seriously in form when beating Mark King 10-4 in final qualifying. He’s fresh, won his three qualifying games dropping only 10 frames.(10-2 10-4 10-4)

Luca Brecel, reached the crucible aged 17 in 2012 but hasn’t quite kicked on from “next big thing” status on first joining the tour but has picked up this season with a quarter final in the UK Championship

Outside those 4, watching qualifying I was subsequently looking out for:

Tom Ford, finalist at the paul hunter classic this year and quarter finalist at the German masters. just outside the top 16 and held off Varaei in final qualifying who was in brilliant form.

Stuart Carrington, beat Mark Williams well in final qualifying. Quarter finalist at the welsh open

I was especially interested in Bingtao and Yeulong who when they won the World Doubles for China just under two years ago defeated finalist Stephen Maguire stated that he believed he had watched two future world champions.

So I looked to match these two lists up, vulnerable seeds versus qualifiers with potential, look at the value we get on the underdog and go looking for upsets!

Bingtao drew Shaun Murphy, cross off the list

Yeulong drew Ding Junhui, a great draw but cross off the list

Brecel drew Marco Fu, cross off the list

Ford drew Hawkins, cross off the list

Carrington drew Liang Wenbo, winnable but cross off the list

That leaves

Guodong drew Ryan Day

Of the remaining vulnerable seeds

Bingham drew Peter Ebdon (no need for sleeping pills that night).

Higgins drew Martin Gould who priced at 5/2 has a shot

Robertson drew the Thai debutant Saengkham

Carter drew Dott

Allen drew Jimmy Robertson

Not too much to go at there, so the match where the two lists match up is

8 points Xiao Guodong to beat Ryan Day, World Championship first round at 13/8 with Betfred or Coral.

The match is Wednesday 19^th.

Not So Super.

Over a  decade ago the Super 12 was one of rugby’s main attractions, a southern hemisphere franchise competition that produced great rugby and every televised match was must watch for rugby fans such were the skills and close competition on offer.

In 2006 12 teams became 15 and then in 2011 the organizers admitted Japan’s Sunwolves, Argentina’s Jaguares and a sixth South African franchise, the Southern Kings to become what is now the Super 18. Since then the huge gulf in the quality betweent eh established and new sides has hardly altered and the end result has become a far less attractive product for players, supporters, television and sponsors.

Whilst the role of the expansion in the competition in developing the game in areas like Japan and Argentina SANZAAR has effectively killed the golden goose. As more teams have been added the quality of rugby has been significantly diluted. As well as exporting the game outside its traditional hotbeds the Australian and South African rugby unions stretched their playing pools far too thinly with 5 and 6 franchises respectively. Meanwhile the New Zealand franchises have gone from strength to strength (with no chance to their franchises and player pools throughout the process creating week after week of one-sided results for several seasons now

As results have suffered, attendances in South Africa and Australia have plummeted. For their opening game of the season, the Waratahs in Sydney attracted a crowd of 11,964, less than half of last year’s corresponding fixture. South African stadiums, many state of the art and some new for the 2010 World Cup, are sometimes less than 25% full and it is estimated that the country has lost four million television viewers in four years.

One of the big issues the casual fan would currently have with the Super18 is that is structure is cumbersome and very tough to understand. There are four conferences – two African along with one each from New Zealand and Australia – that feed into an African and Australasian group. Some South African teams will not face any New Zealand franchises until the play-offs. Some will, and thus are significantly less likely to make the knock out stages

8 months ago SANZAAR began a review of the competition and lastweekend confirmed confirmed a 15-team format from 2018, with Australia losing one team and South Africa two. The most likely franchises to fold are three of the newer and least successful teams the Force in Perth and the Cheetahs and Kings in Bloenfontein and Port Elizabeth respectively.

Keeping expansion sides in Japan and Argentina makes sense from a couple of perspectives. The Jaguares in Buenos Aires have been the one expansion side to showed marked progress and this has really boosted the national side (most of whom form the squad). The decision to retain the Sunwolves is linked directly to SANZAAR’s strategic plan for the future. The potential for growth of the sport in Asia off the back of the establishment of the Sunwolves and the impending Rugby World Cup in 2019 is significant

So for next season there will be

 - 3 conferences

- 18 rounds, each team has 16 games 2 byes

- Each team has 8 conference games, 8 games outside conference

- Teams will play 85% of other teams in a  season. up from 70% in 2016

- The three conference winners and five next best teams will make the knockout quarters

With the best of the Australia and South African players now not diluted across 11 franchises, there is a decent chance of restoring competitiveness across the competition and boosting attendances, viewers and revenue for the remaining teams albeit getting on a par with the New Zealand sides might take a few year and into the next grouping of players

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase

(correct at 22/03/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th-9th April

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea at Bournemouth and Tottenham hosting Watford at the top of the table.

- Racing, The Grand National at Aintree and jumps meetings at Chepstow and Newcastle with Lingfield and Wolverhampton on the all-weather.

- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group quarter finals

- Golf, The Masters at Augusta

- Formula One, the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai

- Cricket, IPL round robin matches and the start of the County Championship season in England

French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28^th May to 11^th June 2017

Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.

Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley

The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night

Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%

Free Tip

World Championship Snooker

Qualifying for the final stages at the Crucible, beginning next weekend, has been taking place this week. For the last 32 in Sheffield following the completion of the China open the seedings have been finalised and the draw shapes up as follows

Mark Selby (1) / Qualifier

Ryan Day (16) / Qualifier

Neil Robertson (9) / Qualifier

Marco Fu (8)/ Qualifier

————————————

Shaun Murphy (5) / Qualifier

Ronnie O’Sullivan (12) / Qualifier

Liang Wenbo (13) / Qualifier

Ding Junhui (4) / Qualifier

————————————

Stuart Bingham (3) / Qualifier

Kyren Wilson (14) / Qualifier

Mark Allen (11) / Qualifier

John Higgins (6) / Qualifier

————————————

Barry Hawkins (7) / Qualifier

Ali Carter (10) / Qualifier

Anthony McGill (15) / Qualifier

Judd Trump (2) / Qualifier

The draw for which seeds each of the qualifiers meet does not take place until next Thursday, which is unfortunate from a betting perspective as there are usually some good opportunities to get with qualifier underdogs in first round matches especially in this era where depth in the game is stronger and the gap between some seeds and some qualifiers is narrower than ever.

Looking at the draw, which I have split into the quarters: The top quarter is tough (Selby and Fu seeded to meet in the quarters) and in the second quarter Ronnie is a tough floater to get for Murphy. Clearly if Ronnie put the schedule in that many of the top sixteen did all season, he'd be a top 4-5 seed.

In the final quarter Trump, the tournament favourite having been in superb form in recent months looks to be in the weaker half of the draw albeit he has a significant hurdle at the quarter final stage in Barry Hawkins who is a tough tournament player, has been consistent all year and has run deep at the Crucible reaching a final and two semi-finals recently

The third quarter looks the weakest part of the draw. Seedings are set off ranking points gained on a rolling two year basis and Stuart Bingham is a "false" 3 seed, based off the ranking points he won winning this two years ago (he tumbles down the rankings when they drop out). Higgins isn't in the form he was earlier in the season and Mark Allen has the mental fortitude of Granit Xhaka on a booking.

The other seed in this quarter is Northampton’s Kyren Wilson who reached the quarters as an unseeded player last year and ran Selby close. He's just lost to Selby again in the semis in China and has three ranking event semi finals this season as he has consolidated his top sixteen ranking. In China, albeit in a short format match, he beat Bingham 5-1 and is seeded to meet him again in the second round here

I regard Wilson highly (a young Selby, all rock solid temperament and tough match play) and see him as a live outsider in that half of the draw at 40/1 each way. Crucial to this view is that there are a good 8 to10 possible winners of this tournament and although no one would be surprised if Trump finally won it or Selby ground it out again to name the two favourites, there is value going beyond the head of the market and looking for a run at a price from a fast developing player.

5 points each way Kyren Wilson 40/1 each way (1/2 1,2) Bet365, Betfred, Coral

Vegas Baby!

With the announcement that the Oakland Raiders are to move to Las Vegas we’ve now seen three NFL teams agree to relocate since the start of 2016. Oakland had struggled for years to get municipal support to upgrade their stadium and the deal to go to Vegas included $750+ million from taxpayers. This followed a similar story in San Diego where the Chargers left for LA with the promise of $180 million in tax breaks. Effectively therefore for the second time in three months the NFL chose facilities over fans, and for Oakland this was by a 30-1 owners vote

The league’s one dissenting voter, Stephen Ross of the Miami Dolphins spent over $500 million of his own money on stadium renovations in Miami over the last two years.Ross stayed put and went into his own pocket to fix a problem. Clearly the NFL owners believe the Raiders leaving Oakland and going to Vegas, the 40th largest TV market according to Nielsen, is worth more to them than forcing the team to work it out with the City authorities

Intended or not, that sends a message to every NFL city. If your owner comes to you and says "we want a new stadium" you had better be prepared to part fund it. If you are an NFL city major you know that there are plenty of cities out there without teams that will readily stump up the finance.If your city says no, they'll go to the next city. The market isn't the sought after commodity, the NFL team is. TV doesn't care what city you're in.

Obviously all this is a huge contrast to major sports in the UK where team moves are almost unheard of and the fan and local community are paramount from a location perspective even if the game is run more for TV than it ever has been.

Asked in 2012 what threats are there to integrity of the NFL, Commissioner Roger Goodell replied, "Gambling would be No. 1 on my list." Things have changed markedly in five years for Goodell. With the Oakland vote, we now have the Las Vegas Raiders, a move that will test the league's longstanding avoid-at-all-costs approach to Nevada, home to the largest legal sports-betting market in the US..

Meanwhile there was an interesting quote from Patriots owner Robert Kraft after the Oakland vote on the prospect of an NFL team in London:

"I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 5-7 years we have a team there. Maybe sooner.”

The NFL had launched the International Series in 2007 with a focus on building in London, while quietly setting a 15-year goal of becoming the first North American sports league to base a franchise here. One London game for the first six years became two in 2013, and three in 2014. This year, the NFL will play four games in London (half of a home schedule) for the first time. Next year, the new Tottenham dual-purpose stadium the NFL invested in will open; the first one being built outside the US for both the NFL and a football. After that, the hope is to eventually get to an eight-game series in London, which could either be the precursor to a club landing here or simply the long-term solution.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase

(correct at 22/03/17)