The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd October

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Everton v Arsenal and Tottenham v Liverpool.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford.

- Tennis, ATP Opens: the Kremlin Cup, European Open in Antwerp, Stockholm Open and Luxembourg Open .

- Golf, on the USPGA The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges, South Korea. On the European Tour the Valderrama Masters in Spain.

- Rugby Union, the second round of the 2017-18 European Rugby Champions Cup. Australia v New Zealand Bledisloe Cup in Brisbane.

- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin,Texas.

NFL Week Seven

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

Wasps v Harlequins, European Champions Cup Rugby Sunday 5.30pm

Wasps were on the wrong end of some harsh scheduling with a five-day turnaround from an away loss at Saracens in the Premiership for their opening match in the competition at Ulster last Friday night. They have been suffering from a long injury list, which was promptly extended by three more players during the first half in Belfast including the first choice hooker with a dislocated thumb.

A reminder from my competition preview that there is less depth in Aviva Premiership squads this year and increased incidence of injuries is more important than ever. Under an unchanged salary cap, about which the clubs are unhappy, there is upward pressure on player salaries (competition from France, notably) and sides Wasps included have had to cut their cloth and make some tough decisions on releasing squad players. So when they then are without 5-8 players it is going to impact on areas like bench depth.

Ulster’s won 19-9 on a miserable night, which places some importance on Wasps’ home encounter with Harlequins this weekend. Harlequins have already won at the Ricoh this season, 24-21 in mid-September and they are going to have to again after their 34-27 home defeat by the debutants La Rochelle last Saturday.

That game was Quins’ first foray into Europe’s top competition after an absence of two seasons and a familiar tale unfolded. They had lots of ambition, some brilliance but also flakiness and ultimately a defeat against that rare French animal, a side that likes playing away from home.

This game, weather allowing, should be high scoring with attack the strength of both and I think it will be far closer than current odds for the game imply. Best prices are Wasps 1/5 Harlequins 7/2 and Harlequins are +10 on the point handicap. +10 might be my favoured bet but we are after a bit more here. I just don’t think Quins are a 7/2 shot in the game against injury hit opposition.

10 points Harlequins to beat Wasps 2017/18 Champions Cup Pool 1: 7/2 Bet365, William Hill

Get Lucky

Psychologists believe that the human brain understates the influence of luck on events. This can be explained by the theory of hindsight bias in which once something has happened our brains naturally create a narrative to explain it. The brain undervalues the abstract role of luck and instead apportions disproportionate value to actual events.

This bias is evident in sport among those who have a vested interest in the outcome of a game. Fans of teams who have won are less likely to claim their team was "lucky" than fans of teams who have lost are to claim their team was "unlucky".

The influence of luck on a sport is determined by obvious variables such as the number of players, their respective abilities to influence the game, the opportunities to score and the way the game is scored and by random variables such as the weather and pitch conditions.

The way sports effectively manage the influence of luck across a season is through the number of matches played. The more matches there are the larger the sample size, the narrower the margin of error between the actual results and the true variance of the teams, and the fairer the league becomes.

The sabermetrician Tom Tango used a methodology to estimate the role of luck in different sporting leagues. The equation on which this method is built states that the observed variance between teams in a league is the product of variance explained by skill and variance explained by luck.

He calculated the observed variance between teams (the standard deviation of win-loss records for each team) and imagined an "all-luck world" estimating the contribution of luck based on the number of matches per team per season. By dividing the observed variance by the variance explained by luck he estimated the extent to which the variance is influenced by luck. As you would expect as the number of matches played in a league increases, the variance explained by luck decreases.

The results of applying Tango's methodology to recent seasons in major sports are as follows, over 2014-16:

EPL (38 matches per team): 27% Variance explained by luck (VEL)

NBA (82 matches per team) 13% VEL

NFL (16 matches per team) 46% VEL

MLB (162 matches per team) 14% VEL

And within cricket

IPL (14 matches per team) 80% VEL

T20 Blast (14 matches per team ) 72% VEL

T20 cricket is currently highly susceptible to luck. The small number of teams in T20 leagues concentrates talent and narrows the range of win-loss records.

Using Tango's method it is possible to estimate the number of matches per team required by a league for the influence of luck to be less than that of the influence of skill. To give two examples, the "magic number" for the IPL is 56 and for the T20 Blast it is 36. To cricket these are big (unfeasible) numbers hence T20 remains a high variance format for betting.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road To Riches Weekend of 14th -15th October

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, The Premier League returns after the international break including Liverpool v Manchester United.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Newmarket, York and Kempton. Chepstow and Hexham over the jumps.

- Tennis, ATP Shanghai Masters and Opens in Linz, Hong Kong and Tianjin.

- Golf, on the USPGA the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur. On the European Tour the Italian Open in Milan.

- Rugby Union, the start of the 2017-18 European Rugby Champions Cup.

NFL Week Six!

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

The Cesarewitch, Newmarket 3.40pm Saturday by Neil Channing

The Cesarewitch is nearly as hard to spell as it is to pick the winner but despite the fact it's wide-open and there are 34-runners I feel that we have to have good bets if we stick to the firms that are offering each-way terms of 1/4 123456 or 1/5th 12345678. Historically the horses carrying less than 8 stone 12 lbs have done well in this and I'm going to focus on them to cut it down.

Generally speaking when betting each-way and getting a few places you need to back something solid, to know that it stays the trip and ought to run a race rather than ever risking a "win or come nowhere" kind of profile. I try to avoid horses who are unsuited by the ground, trying a big hike in trip, have a profile of win a race then three of four duck-eggs or massively up in class.

My shortlist was Dubawi Fifty who I may weaken and have a saver on, John Constable who I think is pretty solid and Withold.

Dubawi Fifty has been laid out for this race, he stays 2m really well, he is young and improving and the stable obviously think he has a good mark as they didn't dare run him and risk carrying more here so he has had a little break.

John Constable is way better over hurdles than on the flat but I would asssume that means he is really well handicapped on the flat. He is an absolute certain stayer and if you get a load of places it's hard to see how he doesn't fill one of them.

 Withold was bought for £170,000 about a year ago by a certain Mr T Bloom esquire. Tony moved the horse to Roger Charlton from Charlie Hills and it run about three weeks ago over 1m4f at Newbury where it finished 3rd. Some might say it could "bounce" here, (put in a bad performance after a long break and a good performance), but this is a trainer I trust to get things right. Going into Friday's racing Roger Charlton was on a run of 9 winners from 23 runners in  the last two weeks. The horse stays 2m well and it's a young and improving animal. I think it has the class and a bit up it's sleeve to win this and do it well. You have to fancy the ownere will back it so we shoudn't hang about.

 I can see the argument for having three bets here and I might weaken and do that but it is quite hard to get lots of bets on at the good place terms so I'll stick with just one.

 I'm having 11 Points each-way Withold at 12/1 1/4 123456 with Betfred and Bet365 (I would take 1/5th 12345678 only if I couldn't get 1/4 123456).

London calling

Unfortunately it remains the case that no NFL Wembley game has been contested by two sides with winning records, and so far this year we have had two poor spectacles witith Jacksonville beating Baltimore 44-7 and the Saints beating the Dolphins 20-3 but irrespective of that from sold-out NFL UK Live events over those weekends to sold out attendances the demand for the NFL over here is strong.

The NFL has had many initiatives outside the United States over the years, such as NFL Europe and international pre-season games, but none of those had the impact that London has.The number of people buying the NFL's GamePass product overseas (and a terribly temperamental product it is too this season), attendance (over 40,000 of the seats for all four of the NFL UK games were sold as part of a season ticket package), coverage on Sky Sports and increased focus by the BBC on the NFL are all indicators of sustained growth.

The NFL's ratings in the United States aren't quite what they used to be. While that may be a blip, even if they do start to go up again, it is unlikely to be the type of growth that really moves the needle toward the NFL's revenue growth goals. That's not the case internationally and it is why the NFL is planning its next moves not only in London but other locations such as Mexico, Germany and China.

London will get its own team eventually. While it may not happen any time soon and there are logistical hurdles (tax rates and time zones being the main two) that still need to be overcome, the growth of the game outside the US to this point has been so robust that it's easy to imagine London hosting a team full time at some point.

It will probably take an open-minded owner who finds himself in a difficult stadium situation in his current market, but certainly the economic opportunity of being the only NFL team in Europe would be very appealing to any owner focused on the bottom line.The UK market has proven it is fervent and viable which is a big step in that direction.

Until then, I can continue to amuse myself by trying to identify all 32 teams jerseys on the walk from the station to the stadium and, as happened to me after one of the recent games, will overhear two female NFL fans  talk about their fantasy teams on the tube afterwards.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th October

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, The Premier League international break. England play Lithuania on Sunday in their final 2018 World Cup Qualifying match.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton, plus Fontwell Park over the jumps.

- Tennis, ATP China Open in Beijing and Japan Open in Tokyo. .

- Golf, on the USPGA the Safeway Open at the Silverado resort in California. On the European Tour the Alfred Dunhill Links at St Andrews.

- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka.

-.Rugby Union, the final matches in the 2017 Rugby Championship.South Africa v New Zealand in Cape Town and Argentina v Australia in Mendoza.

NFL Week Five!

After four weeks of the NFL season these are Neil’s figures for bets so far.

Points bet 440, points won+180.6 ROI +41.05%

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

European Rugby Champions Cup 2017-18

The 2017-18 ERCC begins on next week and concludes with the final in Bilbao next May. Saracens are the defending champions, having won their second successive title last season and they are favourites this year too.

The format is as in recent seasons. There are five pools, five winners and three best runners up make the quarter finals, seeded by best record in the group stages. The four group winners with the best records get home advantage for the quarter finals.

The pools are as followsl. The key thing to note here is that there are three extremely tough groups:

1 Wasps, La Rochelle, Ulster, Harlequins

One of the two “softer” looking pools, minus a French powerhouse

2 Saracens, Clermont Auvergne, Ospreys, Northampton

This pool contains last season’s winners plus the runners up in three of the last five years Clermont

3 Exeter, Leinster, Montpellier, Glasgow

A tough pool containing the Aviva and Pro 12 champions, the leaders of the new Pro 14 and an extremely well funded top French side

4 Munster, Racing92, Leicester, Castres

One of the easier pools, with the weakest of the French sides in Castres, a transitional English side in Leicester and a Racing side that were eliminated in the pool last year

5 Toulon, Scarlets, Bath, Benetton

Three contenders here led by Toulon, three times ERCC winners in recent years, the defending Pro 12 champions from Wales and a developing Bath side

Outright Odds are

Saracens 5/2

Toulon 7/1

Clermont 8/1

Leinster 9/1

Montpellier 12/1

Wasps 12/1

Munster 12/1

Racing92 16/1

Bar 25/1

A structural point to note is that a number of the higher profile home union players in the home unions have played through the summer for the Lions in New Zealand. Squad depth is going to be extremely important particularly after the six nations where attrition rates are likely to be high. English clubs operate a tight salary cap, and there is upward pressure on player salaries (competition from France, notably). Squad depth in this environment is not what it was for several English teams and Saracens, albeit best placed to withstand the trend, look very short to “three-peat” this season .

The key to ante-post value here is to try to find a team in one of the two weaker groups where it is less likely that teams will be taking points off each other and therefore where the fall back of being one of the three best runners up is more likely than a group where there are three genuine contenders

These two groups are Pools 1 and 4 headed by Wasps and Munster and my focus is on Munster.

Munster topped their pool last year with five wins out of six, beat Toulouse at home in the quarter finals and lost at Saracens in the semi-final. Their pool this time is winnable.

In the last couple of years there has been a resurgence in fortunes, after five plus years in the doldrums, for the two main Irish provinces. Leinster and Munster have been at or near the top of the Pro 12/14 and reaching the knockout stages of the ERCC again.

Munster have a fierce home advantage at Thormond Park at Limerick and are a strong side whose core (Murray, Stander, O’Mahoney ) are world class players. A very competitive side that I think will win their group and obtain a home quarter final.

From there if course its impossible to predict if the path to a final would have to run through a French team or Saracens away (as it did last season) but having one of the more comfortable looking groups bodes well for a high seeding and home advantage for as long as possible.

10 points each way Munster to win the 2017-18 European Champions Cup 14/1 William Hill (1/2 1,2) 12/1 generally (Betfred and Bet365 offer half the odds too,some firms offering 1/3 the odds)

Ashes to Ashes?

With the end of the English domestic cricket season comes the announcement of the Ashes tour squad and excitement about the cricketing winter ahead this despite a very poor record in Australia having lost 9 of the last 11 series there.

Of course for England anticipation has been overtaken by anxiety concerning Ben Stokes’ prospects of playing on the tour following his Bristol fracas and even if he does play concern about the make up of the squad.

For all England’ strengths which we could summarise as:

• Top quality seam bowling with Anderson and Broad
• Two world class batsman in Cook and Root
• A terrific lower middle order comprising Stokes (hopefully), Bairstow and Ali

The issues surrounding England's top order batting have been discussed ad infinitum through a period where Cook has had a slew of opening partners and the side has slumped to 50-3 or worse in approximately 40% of their last 60 test innings.

The fact is that there was no good option for the slots at 2,3 and 5 in the batting order and the result is that the squad has been described as “the weakest party sent down under from these shores” with the batting selections “a lucky dip”

Whilst at least Stoneman and Malan are the men in possession of the place and showed some promise during the West Indies series the selection of James Vince was a real “rub your eyes and double check” moment. He had seven Tests in the summer of 2016 and averaged only 19 without a single 50 and averaged under 35 in the Championship this summer. His selection is a hunch at best.

Meanwhile this is Gary Ballance’s fourth try in a Test squad. In his past 13 Tests, he averages 19. Time and again, batsmen are promoted from county cricket with technical flaws that are exposed after only one or two innings in the Test arena. Ballance’s issue is the full straight ball. Vince’s is the swinging ball outside off stump.

In truth, though, it is hard to come up with alternative names and it is not only the selection of the batsmen that leaves questions to be answered. The choice of uncapped 20-year-old leg-spinner Mason Crane is strange too while In the fast bowling England look short of genuine pace for hard pitches they will encounter this winter. Mark Wood was passed over on fitness grounds yet they didn’t select Liam Plunkett their tallest potentially nastiest bowler in the likely conditions. Selecting Woakes, Ball and Overton to back up the “big two” looks a bit samey. Ideal for Trent Bridge in May, less so Brisbane in November

In the aftermath of the Stokes affair and the squad selection England were pushed out to 3/1 to win the Ashes this winter and 5/2 to win that first test in Brisbane and indeed it will look a very tough task indeed if Stokes is missing, a vital player for two reasons a) He lengthens the batting order and can counter-attack after the usual poor starts and b) he is a genuine fourth seamer/fifth bowler. There is no easy replacement that can bat 5-6 and potentially take 10-15 wickets in the series too. The name most often mentioned in the last week? Samit Patel, who is the very opposite of a like for like replacement for Stokes.

Now all that said, Australia are not without problems either. They too have two world class batsmen in Smith and Warner but the rest of the top six is in a transitional phase. They also have top quality fast bowling to spare in Starc, Hazlewood, Cummins and others but already Pattinson has been ruled out through injury and they don’t have a match winning spinner themselves or England’s late order batting firepower.

That is not to say that England are worth empting the wallet for at 3/1. A lot would have to go right for Messrs Stoneman, Vince and Malan for that to be a feasible option, but Australia have their issues too. What this might lead to is a fun series with two flawed teams battling for ascendancy and game by game betting opportunities.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road To Riches Weekend of September 30th to October 1st

Coming Up this weekend

- Football,Premier League matches include Chelsea v Manchester City.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Chelmsford, Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen. On Sunday the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly.

- Tennis, ATP Opens in Shenzhen,Wuhan and Tashkent.

- Golf, on the USPGA the Presidents Cup at Liberty National. On the European Tour the British Masters at Close House in Northumberland.

- Formula One, the Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang

-.Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship: Argentina v New Zealand and South Africa v Australia.

NFL Week Four!

Free tip

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 3.05pm BST Sunday by Neil Channing

I'm having 8 Points each-way Dschingis Secret at 12/1 1/5th 1234 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Hills and Sky Bet.

Trump to the rescue?

After the first two weeks of the NFL season there were concerns about the NFL’s quality of play particularly on offense.For NFL ratings, Sports Media Watch in the US reported that 9 of the 13 NFL windows through Week 2 of this season posted a decrease this season year over year and a connection was drawn between poor play and poor ratings.

CBS's Sunday NFL windows averaged 13.9m viewers, down 10% versus 15.2m last year. Packers-Falcons was the least-watched Week 2 Sunday Night Football game since 2008. NBC’s three prime-time games averaged 22.1m viewers, down 7% from 2016.

One bright spot was that for the second week in a row, NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football ratings were up significantly from NFL Network’s games last season: Last week’s Rams-49ers game, one of the best TNF games to date and an 80 point shoot-out had 7.4m viewers. Last year, the four Thursday night games on NFL Network averaged 6.1m.

The league can point to potential factors for decreases in addition to poor offense such as Hurricane Irma impacting markets. However there are a number factors at play here:

Firstly through the first 30 games of the 2017 season, the average contest has been decided by 13 points. One sided matches with in many cases poor quarterback play aren’t the biggest draw.

Secondly there are structural factors at play, namely the fragmentation of media watching. A curious trend within these viewing dips is that the number of people watching games is not down, but the amount of time they’re watching for is. “Only watching part of a game” is more prevalent and the popularity of Red Zone, showing action from every game as it happens and concentrating on touchdowns and big plays only, is indicative of the consumer being prepared to cut out the “blanks” in a game and consume its watching of individual games in smaller chunks.

For some viewers, panels are indicating that the NFL has “Stopped being fun” One head coach meanwhile said last week that there “Just not a lot of technique anywhere”.

Finally in the last few years, since the 2011 CBA, there has been a game-changing trend: The NFL is getting young due to changes at both ends of the age spectrum, with record numbers of less experienced rookies entering the league and veterans being released.

In the past five years, NFL teams have committed heavily to cost-effective rookies, reserving lucrative second contracts for the game’s biggest stars. Looming over all of that is teams’ reliance on the rookie salary scale, which since the 2011 CBA has guaranteed teams access to cheap players for four years. In many cases the college game hasn’t prepared the younger players for the NFL and it knocks on to the quality of the product we watch.

Just as it was all doom and gloom, week 3 presented a nice surprise for the league at the end of a difficult week. Firstly there were a number of close high scoring games and then on MNF Cowboys-Cardinals got a 9.3 overnight rating easily the highest-rated Monday night game of the year. That came despite some talk that the controversy surrounding players kneeling during the national anthem would depress NFL ratings. Through four games Monday Night Football ratings are now up over last season. In aggregate ratings across the NFL were up about 3% from Week Three last year.

Perhaps casual viewers were encouraged to look into games because of the President Trump controversy and players responses before and during national anthems and stayed to watch a game. The chance to watch a feud as it happens can’t be bad for ratings.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th September

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League matches include Leicester City v Liverpool

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton

- Tennis, ATP Opens in St Petersburg, Guangzhou, Seoul, Tokyo and Shenzhen

- Golf, on the USPGA the Tour Championship at East Lake GC. On the European Tour the Portugal Masters.

- Cricket, ODI international between England and the West Indies at Bristol on Sunday.

The New NFL Season Week Three!

Free tip

England v West Indies Third ODI International Bristol Sunday 11am start

England go into this game 1-0 up in the five match series after the second match was abandoned in the rain at Trent Bridge on Thursday

Scheduling five one-dayinternationals in mid to late September was an obvious gamble with the weather but counties are so desperate for the income from England matches that an already packed schedule is squeezed further.

There are many reasons why the West Indies have now failed to qualify automatically for the 2019 World Cup, some of which are off the field related, but one thing they can do is be more adaptable in their strategies which are suited to benign pitches and sunny weather at home but look somewhat out of place here in late season.

In T20, their “block-or-bash” method has not hindered them, the immense power in the batting order over a short format means they can overcome dot balls by hitting boundaries regularly. In the 50 over game they have a dot ball percentage since the 2015 world cup of just under 60%, the most of any of the major sides. By comparison England’s dot ball percentage is under 50%. Their batsman look to turn ones into twos which is a big contrast from the “boundary or nothing” approach from the likes of Chris Gayle which we saw in the first match of this series at Old Trafford where the West Indies innings fizzled away after Gayle and Lewis teed off at the start of the innings.

The third match is at Bristol on Sunday. England are 1/4 favourites, West Indies 3/1 underdogs across the market which appears fair enough given the late season English conditions and the West Indies’ travails in the format. Any team with hitters like Gayle (when fit), Lewis and Pollard has a punchers chance, it only takes one or two of these flair players to come off and a game can be transformed but the likelihood is that these outright odds are on the mark.

My idea of a bet here is in the West Indies batsman market. Against the moving ball there is a premium on technique and the best West Indian technique is in 23 year old batsman Shai Hope. Hope really impressed in the three match test series with two hundreds and a fifty in compiling 375 runs in his six innings. Where others in this ODI team are “boom and bust” he, batting at number three so in early enough to build the innings, sets out to anchor an innings and attempts to let the hitters play round him. He has only played 19 ODIs in a fledgling career but already has 659 runs at an average of over 40 but at a very modest strike rate of 66, a more studied approach than his team mates.

We are being offered 7/2 with William Hill and Skybet that while the likes of Gayle and Lewis attempt “calypso cricket” in anything but calypso conditions in England in September he will occupy the crease and compile a score.

8 points Shai Hope Top West Indian Batsman third ODI 7/2 Skybet or William Hill

Revolving Doors

As Neil has been mentioning in his weekly NFL write-ups it wasn’t exactly a surprise that offenses have started this NFL season slowly, with defenses on top in many games. There are a couple of structural reasons for this, the primary one being that is easier for a defense to hit the ground running in the current NFL as the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL and the NFLPA severely restricts the number of practices firstly and padded practices secondly all year round.

Offenses take time to install and mesh, coaching changes are frequent with new schemes for many teams from one season to the next and for many it is as if the first month of the regular season acts as an effective pre-season as many of the starters are held out of pre-season to minimise injury risk. If a quarterback has no time to throw, or there is no running lane for a tail back or a quarterback is off-target to a receiver, who might drop the ball anyway, it is clear for everyone to see. Dysfunctional offense has been no more obvious than on Offensive lines.

In 2017 through two weeks and a game there have been 5.23 sacks per game, the highest rate in the last 20 seasons.

This week Patriots coach Bill Belichick, seemed to confirm that reduced padded practice have reduced the opportunities for offensive linemen to perfect their craft. “I just think in general, fundamentally it’s difficult to play on the offensive and defensive line,” Belichick said. “You’re playing a contact position with pads, and you’re practicing it without pads the majority of the time. That usually develops a lot of bad habits”

He continued “Without being able to practice, this favours the defensive players a little more, whereas the offensive unit has to work together and be able to block things at more of a game tempo with pads and penetration and combination blocks and things like that. It’s just hard to simulate those and hard to get the timing of those when you’re just standing up watching each other without pads on a lot”

To make his point, Belichick opted for an example from another sport.

“You go out to the driving range and hit drives and hit balls, but you can’t go on the putting green and then, to think that your putting is going to be at the same level as your driving when you can’t really practice it, it’s not really realistic”

Different teams have taken varying approaches to improving their Offensive line problems. I can illustrate this by looking at a couple of teams the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants.

For the Giants while Odell Beckham’s injury didn’t help the biggest reason by far for the Giants' ineptitude in the opening games of the year was the performance of their offensive line. This is the same offensive line (the same five players) that was the weakest unit on the team a year ago.The Giants have three below-average linemen in left tackle Ereck Flowers, right guard John Jerry and right tackle Bobby Hart.

The Giants maintained when questioned in the off-season  that 2017 was a weak draft for offensive linemen and that only average veterans got overpaid in free agency and that was not something they were willing to do. They opted for continuity and banked on the continued growth of young players. It doesn't appear to have worked, so far.

On the other hand the Minnesota offense, which spluttered through last season with what appeared to be revolving doors on the offensive line, look like a finely tuned machine in week one behind an entirely revamped offensive line. The Vikings have only one returning starter on the line from last year and he is playing a different position.

The Vikings have five new players at each position, and three of them weren't even on the team last year including a rookie center and both offensive tackles.

They are far from the only offensive line that struggled in Week 1. Teams such as the Seahawks, Colts, Texans, Bengals and Saints have similar issues but at least many (though not all, looking at you the Bengals) tried to address the issue in the off-season.

For example Seattle at least did something by signing former Number two overall draft pick Luke Joeckel and drafting Ethan Pocic high in last April's draft.

The memo to NFL teams faced with a requirement for 8-9 offensive linemen on each roster and not enough quality players to match up to ever quicker and stronger defenses might be as follows. Since you are prohibited to work at developing offensive lineman with padded practice opportunities so restricted you have two choices: a) draft the best you can find or b) overpay for the few that become available in free agency. Doing neither, as we can see even early in this new NFL season, isn’t a recipe for success.

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