Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th February 2018
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Tottenham
- NFL, the Superbowl: Philadelphia Eagles v New England Patriots
- Rugby Union, the first weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, the start of the T20 Tri-Series, with Australia playing England in Sydney on Saturday and the Big ash final Adelaide Strikers v Hobart Hurricanes
- Racing, Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby. All-weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Round One ties. Great Britain play Spain in Marbella.
- Golf, the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Maybank Championship in Malaysia
NFL Superbowl
The Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets. Neil has written an introduction that can be seen at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/203
Anyone who signed up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
If you had bet £10 a point on Super Bowl and Playoffs with us over the last five years you would have won £1880 with a +ROI 10.04% and had 4 out of 5 winning years.
Super Bowl and Playoff profit and loss last five years:
2017/18 +27.6 (so far) +13.8% ROI
2016/17 +100.56 ROI +18.9%
2015/16 -20.97 ROI -5.39%
2014/15 +49.5 ROI +9.5%
2013/14 +31.7 ROI +13.7%
Cheltenham 2018 Preview Night
Tickets go on Sale 1pm Saturday 10th February
When: Saturday 10th March 2018 (6.15pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
See here for full details
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Oldham Athletic v Bradford City League One Saturday 3pm
Two out of form teams meet at (the former) Boundary Park in League One tomorrow.
Oldham have lost four of their last five games in a winless run that has sees them mired in 22nd place in the table having regressed following a strong run of form when Richie Wellens was appointed caretaker manager. They have comfortably the worst defensive record in the division conceding 55 goals in their 30 league games
Bradford are still in the top six, a familiar place in the last few seasons in which they have lost in the play offs for the last two years both times to Millwall including last year’s final.
Bradford have lost five in a row this year, most recently 4-0 at home to AFC Wimbledon last Saturday which followed Stuart McCall the manager getting a vote of confidence. In the light of that he’s probably doing well to still be manager. However 4-0 is a harsh reflection of a game where AFC Wimbledon had four shots on target and scored all four. Bradford enjoyed 55% possession and had seven shots on target and got thumped
The effect of this result and the bad run in general is that a side fifth in the division and still set for the play-offs is available at nearly 2/1 to win at a side third from bottom. This recency bias in prices may well be correct but we wouldn’t be getting circa 2/1 about the away team here at most other times of the season.
Bradford were active at the end of the transfer window signing four new players (and just missed out on a fifth) including a striker (to support Charlie Wyke, top scorer with 13 goals) and the experienced Stephen Warnock. McCall said at the beginning of the week “I expect us to be a lot stronger in the next few weeks and that's new signings and getting players back from injury."
Wellens meanwhile was frustrated at the failure to bring in more signings on transfer deadline day.
"It's very frustrating. I spent 14 hours at the club yesterday and I wanted three of my players in, but I didn't get one done,"
8 points Bradford City to beat Oldham Bet365 and William Hill
Dive!
To complement Neil’s Superbowl coverage a “deep dive” into some of the interesting factors behind the success of the two teams
Patriots
In 17 years, the Patriots have 15 division titles, 12 AFC championship appearances, seven Super Bowl appearances, and five Super Bowl wins. In a league designed to produce parity with the draft and free agency preventing, in theory, the establishment of ”dynasties” this is extremely rare
Of course the central factors in this dominance are an all time great coach (Belichek) and an all time great quarterback (Brady) but in addition to that the team often makes contrarian personnel decisions, such as trading players at or near their prime ahead of reductions in value, moves that are often questioned heavily at the time. In terms of game planning, Belichek (general manager, head coach and long time defensive co-ordinator) has a completely ruthless ability to exploit superior match ups and the flexibility of the roster is key. One week it’s the run game, the next the deep passing game.
Detractors might point out that New England had the luxury of beating the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins (a combined 44 different starting quarterbacks since 2001) twice each year to win the division. However counting the playoffs, the Patriots are 82-24 against the AFC East (77.4%) since 2001, the best divisional mark in the league and 235-72 since 2001 across every team producing an almost-identical winning percentage (76.5%)
Play-off football can be a game of fine margins. New England is a few “fluke” plays (the David Tyree catch for the Giants for example) from being 7-0 in the Super Bowl but also two opponents decisions (the Seahawks and Falcons not running the ball) from being 0-4 in the Super Bowl in the past 10 years.
Just counting his numbers since 2010, Tom Brady has thrown for more passing yards and touchdowns in the playoffs than everyoe in league history except for Manning, Brett Favre, and Joe Montana. If you divided Brady’s career in half—2001 to 2009 and 2010 to today—and assigned each to two different people, both would be locks to make the Hall of Fame.
Eagles
The Eagles went for it on fourth down 26 times during the regular season, second most in the league and they converted a league-high 17 of those attempts.
The situations in which the Eagles decide on the aggressive course of action are not random. They are often decided before the start of the game or even before the start of the season. The approach is driven by an analytics team who communicate with the head coach during a game
They have scored a touchdown or field goal on 13 of the 18 drives in which they converted a fourth down, totaling 85 points. The times they went for it on fourth down and didn't convert, the opposing team didn't score a single point on the subsequent drive.
The team has had a big focus on for understanding situational odds, not always a strength of other coaching teams.
Analytics are being deployed on the defensive side of the ball as well. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is known to be very much data-driven in his approach to the job. He passes his statistical findings on to his players, and demands they be able to recall it at a moment's notice, so that in the “chaos” of a game they don’t just have to rely on a coach’s call from the sideline but can think on their feet too .
The use of analytics has given the Eagles an edge in some critical areas to this point.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup fourth round
- Cricket, the fifth and final ODI between Australia and England in Perth on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. All-weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield
- Tennis, the final weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in the UAE.
NFL Superbowl
The Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets. Neil has written an introduction that can be seen at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/203
Anyone who signed up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
If you had bet £10 a point on Super Bowl and Playoffs with us over the last five years you would have won £1880 with a +ROI 10.04% and had 4 out of 5 winning years.
Super Bowl and Playoff profit and loss last five years:
2017/18 +27.6 (so far) +13.8% ROI
2016/17 +100.56 ROI +18.9%
2015/16 -20.97 ROI -5.39%
2014/15 +49.5 ROI +9.5%
2013/14 +31.7 ROI +13.7%
MustardBet are back!
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Free tip
FA Cup Fourth round: MK Dons v Coventry City 3pm Saturday
Nine league places separate these two sides, and both will regard it as a favourable draw in terms of progressing to the next round.
MK Dons are 21st in League One and this week replaced their manager bringing in their former Academy boss and England Under-16 coach Dan Micciche. They are on a poor run of one win in 11 games which precipitated the change.
Coventry, among the ante-post favourites to get promoted from League two, are in the play off places under experienced manager Mark Robins. Having suffered numerous off-field problems since their heyday they are in the early stages of achieving more stability and getting into a position to climb the leagues again.
Living reasonably close to Coventry (not that I admit it much) I keep an eye on them. The side is packed with good young players and a big local catchment area brings in those young players from both the West and East Midlands.
Coventry have only conceded 20 goals in 28 league games and had a slice of “hidden luck” when being drawn against Stoke in the third round and beating them when they were at their lowest ebb in what was to prove to be Mark Hughes’ final game.
The MK Stadium holds 30,000 and is magnificent. Average attendance this season is 8,948 and Coventry have sold their full quota of 7,833 for the game. In the league last season Cventry were limited to 1,000 tickets (9,066 attendance) I’d have a hard time contending that MK Dons have much of a home advantage tomorrow, the setting isn’t foreboding, the home crowd might be out-numbered and the away team is confident .
So all this is interesting, you might (or might not) think, so what?
Well it’s the prices. MK Dons 6/5, the Draw 9/4 and Coventry 5/2. I can’t have that Coventry are 5/2 here.
10 points Coventry City to beat MK Dons 5/2 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred
Changes.
Updating some thoughts from a few weeks ago, eight managers have now been replaced in the Premier League this season after the first 24 games each, with Silva and Hughes the latest departures.
This season the majority of the six other managerial changes made this season has seen teams enjoy a clear "bounce" after changing managers. Palace’s revival has been particularly impressive. After a slow start since replacing Frank de Boer in September, Roy Hodgson has now guided Palace to 11th with a seven-game unbeaten run along the way and Palace also secured three clean sheets in a row away from home in that spell.
As for Allardyce, he has taken Everton into the top ten. With further reinforcements arriving in the current transfer window, Everton could even repeat their seventh-placed finish of last season.
Leicester under Claude Puel meanwhile, are adapting a counter-attacking style to one that is more possession based and he is bringing the best out of Mahrez while David Moyes has made West Ham fitter and organised. Very early days but the appointment of Carvahal at Swansea, possibly the most surprising of the lot this season, has seen some improved performance and seven points in the last four games including Monday’s win over Liverpool.
Only West Brom have changed their manager this season and failed to see an immediate uplift, although they did win for the first time under Alan Pardew (and the first time in twenty games overall) a fortnight ago against Brighton and followed that up with a draw at Everton. Stoke meanwhile won Lambert’s first game to move out of the bottom three
Whilst difficult to draw overall conclusions as each case is different one thing all the short term bounces has done is bring a number of teams into the relegation mix whereas they would have been thought of as safe only a few weeks ago.
Teams as high in the table as Watford on a bad run of form (11 defeats in 16 matches since Everton came calling for Silva) and the promoted clubs (none of whom are likely to change their manager) are now well in the relegation mix too. Fans of Newcastle (especially if no takeover materialises in the next few days to release funds for team strengthening), Huddersfield and Brighton are sitting less comfortably than they were as the “old guard” of new managers produce improvements elsewhere
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Newcastle United
- NFL, Play Offs: The Conference Championships.
- Cricket, the third ODI between Australia and England in Sydney on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, the CareerBuilder Challenge at PGA West on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
- Rugby Union, the final round of Pool Matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup
NFL Play offs
Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Conference Championships is available
Package for the playoffs is £50. Sign up here
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
Anyone signing up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis (Jan 15th – Jan 28th 2018) |
Analysis of matches for the second half of the Australian Open
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European Rugby Champions Cup Pool Games Round 6 Leicester v Racing92 Sunday 1pm
Going into the last round of Pool matches this weekend, in Pool 4 Munster lead Racing92 by a point and for both five point (maximum bonus point) wins are crucial on Sunday to give themselves a shot at winning the pool first and secondly qualifying for the quarter finals as a runner up if not.
A reminder of the competition format: The five Pool winners and only the three best runners up make the knock-out rounds with the Quarter finals at the end of March.
Leicester are out of contention for the last eight and played a second string team in Castres last weekend and were beaten 39-0. Since their glory days and in recent years Leicester are in transition, cycling through head coaches as they search for a formula to compete domestically (they are down in 8th in the Aviva Premiership, recently losing six in a row either side of Christmas) and in Europe.
One of the issues they have is a structural one, player age inflation is outstripping growth in the salary cap and so squad depth isn’t what it once was. This is being reflected in results of most of the English teams in the ERCC this season and it is possible that none of the five participants will make the last eight depending on this weekend’s results. Leicester have recruited “flashily” with Jonny May, George Ford and Matt Toomua helping give them a potent back line on paper but lack of speed in the back row is a real issue that is seen repeatedly when coming up against the better sides
Racing92 won a thriller, 34-30, at home to Munster last Sunday and will need a five point win (scoring four tries) here to stand a chance of winning the group or, more likely, a runners up spot for the last eight assuming Munster beat Castres with four tries which they should. Unfortunately for our ante-post bet the Racing win last weekend has probably cost Munster prime seeding (and possibly a home quarter final) assuming they do beat Castres
Of course last weekend’s game was on a “fast track”, the indoor U Arena in Paris and backing a French team away from home is an entirely different proposition. However Racing are a long way into a transition of their own, a side rebuilt after 2016 with a poor season last year but now becoming contenders again (3rd in the Top 14) They have a big ball winning pack (the match up in the back row here particularly favours Racing) and finishers all over the back line. They will expect to win here and all eyes will be on scoring at least four tries.
The handicap quote of Racing -4 looks off to me,its moved in a couple of points after Leicester picked a team with 13 changes from last week including the return of their international players. Racing should though not only cover but could win by more than a score
10 points Racing 92 to win by 1-12 points at 7/4 SkyBet (11/8 William Hill)
Scorched.
Just after Australia regained the Ashes the seventh season of the Big Bash League began.Over the six previous years the Big Bash’s attendance has doubled. With an extra eight games this year that figure will be even greater and the BBL is expected to expand by a further 16 games soon, possibly heading abroad soon too. A the new TV rights deal begins next season and it should be worth a multiple of the current £11.5m per year contract. The BBL’s average attendance, with crowds full of families, is already among the world's top 10 sporting leagues.
The contrast with the marketing of England’s domestic T20 competition is obvious. England’s new Twenty20 competition which finally launches in 2020 is modelled on the BBL: It will be played in the school holidays, also has eight teams, and there will be a strict salary cap to ensure talent is spread across the teams. Like American sports leagues, the BBL is designed to produce competitive balance. The salary cap and limits on overseas players theoretically render dynasty-building impossible. In an age of growing home advantage in Test cricket, it gives domestic T20 leagues the advantage of unpreditability at the star tof any game.
However just like the NFL, say, where the New England Patriots have been able to overcome the rules designed to lead to competitive balance (all time great coaching and quarterbacking helps..) in the BBL’s six seasons the Perth Scorchers have made five finals. Since Justin Langer became coach, the Scorchers have won it three times in four years. As we reach the end of the group stages in this year's competition, they are top of the table again.
In the short term world of T20 competitions where players play in many teams depending on the tournament the Scorchers are different. This is a year round team because of the continuity between Western Australia’s sides in the longer formats and the Scorchers, all of whom are coached by Langer. That cohesiveness is vital to their success but so too is a professional approach not just on fitness but also in the use of data.
The Scorchers have developed programmes, equivalents of the baseball/Moneyball systems, that give indicators on the opposition, their own team and who they should select for the match-ups. A dossier produced for every match includes which Perth batsmen are best-suited to facing particular opposition bowlers, and which Perth bowlers are best-placed to restrict particular batsmen.
That approach extends to the Scorchers’ recruitment policy where the Scorchers have developed a database comparing their own players with others in various roles to highlight those who will make the biggest difference to the squad. Essentially the analysis allows them to see which overseas player will provide the most value to Perth’s squad, taking into account who they would replace in the side. The model has repeatedly hit upon obscure overseas recruits. Perhaps the best examples are Alfonso Thomas and Yasir Arafat, two quick bowlers with minimal international experience. Amongst players Perth have recruited from England are David Willey, Ian Bell and Tim Bresnan, the latter two long jettisoned from the England T20 international set up.
Ignoring the consensus that T20 is a game of big hitting and thatg is where resources need to be spent, Scorchers captain Adam Voges believes bowlers win T20 games. Accordingly, Perth normally pick five specialist bowlers. They have defended under 150 nine times in the past four years.
The signs for English teams in the two years before our new all singing all dancing T20 franchise tournaent launches is that adopting data analysis leads to a competitive advantage or will til at least everyone does it..
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City
- NFL, Play Offs: The Divisional Round.
- Cricket, the first ODI of a five match series between Australia and England, in Melbourne on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby. All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Tennis, ATP Sydney and Auckland, the final warm up tournaments before the Australian Open
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and on the European Tour the BMW South African Open
- Rugby Union, the penultimate round of Pool Matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup
NFL Play offs
Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Divisional Round games is available
Package for the playoffs is £50. Sign up here
The Remaining Playoff package includes: 13th/14th January Divisional Playoffs, 21st January Conference Playoffs. (There will be write ups on all games)
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
Anyone signing up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis (Jan 15th – Jan 28th 2018) |
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Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 4 Racing92 v Munster Sunday 3.15pm
Munster lead Pool 4 with three wins and a draw so far and here face one of their toughest games against a resurgent Racing side who are second in the pool.
These two teams met in the pool stages last year Munster winning both 32-7 and 22-10, the former game an emotional occasion after the original fixture had been postponed due to the untimely death of Munster’s coach Anthony Foley. Earlier this season Munster beat Racing 14-7 in Limerick. Racing have two losses in the pool, losing narrowly in Castres too.
Racing are emerging from a transitional period and a down season last year after finishing runners up to Saracens in the 2016 European Cup. Racing have won their last four games, beginning with beating Castres 29-7 in this pool but it was the 58-6 victory over Clermont last weekend that was the real eye-opener, a result hat lifted them to third in the French top 14. Clermont had picked an inexperienced team for the tie, particularly in the backline, in a bid to rest players ahead of this weekend but still, eight tries by Racing was some going.
As with many French teams, a far more formidable proposition at home than away this is quite the task for a Munster side who have begun to concentrate resources on this competition with losses over the New Year period to Ulster and Leinster in the Pro 14 that has left them well adrift of Glasgow in their conference. These results followed home and away victories over Leicester in rounds 3 and 4 of the ERCC that allowed them to take charge of the pool.
This match has been given a little spice by Racing 92 announcing the signing of the charismatic Munster and Ireland back Simon Zebo five days before the sides meet in this pivotal match.
When on song Racing are a formidable proposition. A “big budget” side from Paris their pack is huge and if it secures front foot ball then the back line is a “who’s who” of finishers, set up by Machenaud and Dan Carter at half back, and led by wingers Imhoff and especially the giant Fijian Vakatawa.
Munster are well equipped to battle this one out though with a minimum aim of achieving a losing bonus point (losing by seven points or less) which should put them in prime position to qualify with Castres at home to follow in their last pool game, a game for which they will be prohibitive favourites. Their chances of doing so will depend on the core of the team which lies in the back row and at scrum half where Peter O’Mahoney and CJ Stander are one of the best defensive units in the world game for province and country and Conor Murray can help them play territory with his kicking game from number 9.That control is going to be essential to stay in the game for as long as possible.
Potential adverse weather won’t be a factor here. Racing now play in the new indoor U Arena.
Outright prices here are Racing 8/13 Munster 13/8 with Munster +4 on the points handicap.
I expect Racing to win and think it’s a huge ask to expect Munster to do so but equallyexpect the streetwise key Munster players to help limit the damage in the pool by getting that losing bonus point
12 points Racing92 to win by 1-12 points at 13/8 BetfairSportsbook, Skybet, 11/8 Ladrbrokes/Coral 5/4 William Hill
The Only Way is Up.
The Cleveland Browns finished the regular season 0-16, their fate sealed with a 28-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers back-ups in Week 17. The loss was followed by an ironic 0-16 parade through the city by fans!
The defeat dropped coach Hue Jackson to a 1-31 record over two seasons, and the Browns joined the Detroit Lions who finished 0-16 in 2008. The 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers also finished winless in a fourteen game season.
Hue Jackson now has the most defeats by a coach over a two-season span in NFL history. Owner Jimmy Haslam has already announced that Jackson would return as head coach, saying "I don't think Hue has lost (his) magic." This was a surprise to most observers following a series of baffling in-game coaching and pre-game decisions that turned a team which on paper looked good enough to achieve 4-6 wins into a winless one.
Cleveland lost four games this season by just three points, but consistently shot themselves in the foot with one of the worst red-zone offenses in memory. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer led the league in turnovers for an offense that lacked identity mainly from the incomprehensible refusal to lean on the running game even when it was reasonably successful.
Looking ahead there is reason for hope from several factors, if not the coaching. In April’s 2018 Draft the Browns of course have the top overall pick and five selections over the first two rounds as part of the haul amassed in 2017 by now-jettisoned VP of football operations Sashi Brown. Beyond that they have three more picks through Rounds 3-4.
Sashi Brown effectively paid the price for the Browns not drafting Carson Wentz and DeShaun Watson last year but a now happy bi-product of the trade made by the Texans to move up for Watson is that as well as the top pick the Browns have pick 4 too, the pick that was traded by the Texans. It just so happens that the 2018 draft is a strong one for quarterbacks and the decision over which of Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Mayfield they choose with the first overall pick is a key one
With a quarterback in place, the Browns could take Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 4 pick. Look at the effect Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette or Alvin Kamara have had on their franchises and Barkley appears to be a talent similar to those young players. Cleveland could also package some of their many later round draft picks to move up in the draft too and get a third first round draft pick.
The roster needs help from top to bottom but new general manager John Dorsey has some young players to build a roster around such as pass-rusher Myles Garrett, receiver Josh Gordon, running back Duke Johnson, Tight End David Njoku and defensive players Emmanuel Ogbah and Danny Shelton.
Add those high draft picks and hopefully take some of the projected $60m in available cap space to acquire free agents (Cleveland wide receivers combined for five TD catches this season. The Browns for example could use a big-time receiver via free agency to strengthen that group) to the young players on the roster and all the ingredients are in there for a very rapid turn-around.
The usual caveats apply. The team has to talent spot well both in the draft and free agency and there remains a huge question-mark over the coaching but this will be an off-season worth watching as rarely do teams have the opportunity to change their playing staff so rapidly.
GM John Dorsey previously took over as general manager for a Kansas City franchise that was coming off a 2-14 season. He hired Andy Reid, who reinvented Alex Smith, and the Chiefs have reached the playoffs four of the last five seasons. This week he poached Eliot Wolf from the Packers to be his right hand personnel man.
Famous last words, even the Browns shouldn’t be able to mess this up if they give them the time to build.
Brodders Football Analysis
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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, FA Cup third Round weekend.
- NFL, the start of the Play Offs: Wildcard Weekend.
- Cricket, the conclusion of the final Ashes Test in Sydney and the Big Bash League continues.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton. All weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield.
- Tennis, the start of the new season and the run up to the Australian Open. ATP events this week in Brisbane, Chennai and Qatar.
- Golf, the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua GC in Hawaii.
NFL Play offs start tomorrow
Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Wildcard games is available
Package for the playoffs is £50. Sign up here
Playoff package includes: 6th/7th January Wild Card games, 13th/14th January Divisional Playoffs, 21st January Conference Playoffs. (There will be write ups on all games)
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
Anyone signing up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis (Jan 15th - Jan 28th 2018) |
Includes the outright markets, all the match write ups and details of all the bets that we have.
MustardBet are back!
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Free tip
The FA Cup Ante Post.
Over recent years there has been much written about the waning importance of the FA Cup as a competition, and in particular a disconnect between many top flight fans and their clubs who have demonstrably favour the Premier League in terms of their priorities.
For the clubs,this in understandable enough. At a financial level the FA Cup winners this year will receive prize money of £1.8m, equivalent to the sum awarded for finishing bottom in the Premier League, where the winners receive £38m and each position higher than 20th receives several million more than the place below.
Against this, for sides unlikely to finish in the Premier League top six the FA Cup winners enter the Europa League at the group stage which might not be the carrot European football once was but is a carrot nonetheless. Or so you would think.
During the last several seasons fighting my growing urge to say “the FA Cup is not a bettable medium anymore, there are too many unpredictable variables if you include team motivation, rotation and priorities” I alighted on an ante-post plan that went as follows
- Sides who might finish in the top six of the Premier League have other priorities
- Sides who might get relegated have other priorities
- However sides who can’t make Europe via the league and can’t go down should really take the FA Cup seriously and have a real go. Some nice draws and the 33/1 will look handy indeed.
Then each season I would watch as sides like Southampton from a couple of seasons ago (not that I hold much of a grudge) pick a squad XI for third round matches and limply exit the competition
Even this season, I watched my own club Leicester City (who can’t go down and won’t finish top six) change eight players from Saturday to Tuesday for a League Cup quarter-final and proceed to lose on penalties against a second XI from a top six side. Just as well I didn’t fancy a trip to Wembley then.
However that game against Manchester City before Xmas was the moment another light bulb came on as I watched Zinkovic, Foden, Diaz, Adarabioyo and others knock it around for Man C. Of course the spending by the top six, Manchester clubs especially, in transfer windows has given top six sides two or sometimes three players per position and it is no longer sufficient to say “Top Six team x will rotate at Championship team y and will be vulnerable” The fact is that the second choice teams in their own right would finish in the top 14 of the Premier League. We don’t even have the perennial fallback of cup upsets caused by conditions. These days almost every side plays on decent pitches
We only need to look at recent FA Cup Winners. In the last decade there is one outlier, Wigan, but the remainder of the winners is a roll call of the big boys (Chelsea x 3,Arsenal x3,City,United). Teams like Palace, Villa, Hull, Stoke and Portsmouth have though made finals.
So this year instead of concentrating on a “they really should be taking this competition seriously” list which in my head this season was Leicester, Burnley and Everton (can’t reach top six, won’t go down), two of which are drawn away at top six sides anyway I thought I would find an angle for the top six sides, and to me that angle is the Champions League.
Five English teams made the last 16 of the Champions League. Furthermore Arsenal have made the last 32 Europa League and, maybe unlikely, but winning that competition is a route back into the Champions League that the Premier League might not provide them this year.
Of the Champions League clubs the draw was kind to City (Basel) not too bad for United and Liverpool (Porto and Sevilla), and tough on Tottenham (Juventus) and Chelsea (Barcelona).Ties are played in mid February, the midweek before and after the FA Cup fifth round
Manchester City will be fighting on four fronts come February and for Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham finishing in the Premier League top four is going to be a tight battle. When push comes to shove in February/March, we could see them select very young teams indeed selected in the middle rounds of the FA Cup.
That leaves Manchester United and Chelsea, where finishing outside the top four in the Premier League is unlikely. United should be more confident of progressing in the Champions League than Chelsea, who come the end of February could be left with the prospect of trying to finish second in the league and win the FA Cup, possibly after a Carabao Cup final. Of the top six sides it is they, with more depth than the squad had earlier in the season, that should be motivated to go deep in this year’s FA Cup assuming they lose to Barcelona over two legs.
Of course it is only January and there is the inevitable variance of the cup draws during each round.
Prices at the head of the market are
Manchester City 4/1
Manchester United 6/1
Chelsea 6/1
Tottenham 8/1
Arsenal10/1
Liverpool 10/1
Bar 33/1
10 points Chelsea to win the FA Cup 6/1 Bet365,William Hill,Betfred
Dropped In
With the Ashes series lost before the Melbourne Test, dare say live viewing figures from the UK would have been somewhat lower than earlier in the series. For those diehards still tuned in, the pitch for the match wouldn’t have helped. It was completely dead and completely unsatisfactory.
At a time when Test cricket faces multiple challenges from other cricket formats and other sports it was unhelpful. It was flat and slow but it wasn't easy to play shots on, while it didn't deteriorate at all and there was nothing in it for seam bowlers or spinners at any stage, the sort of pitch you might have seen on the sub-continent 30 years ago.
Of course it was a drop in pitch, cultivated and developed off-site and laid in the run up to the game. Essentially hard as a slab of concrete, turf packed into a vast metal tray simply deadens the ball on contact and the use of these pitches is part of a trend that is increasing through world cricket particularly at multi-use venues such as the MCG where pitch preparation in the winter months plays second fiddle to Aussie Rules. This winter, England play three of their seven Tests on drop-ins, in Adelaide, Melbourne and Auckland.
Interestingly, the trustees of the Sydney Cricket Ground the venue for the current final Test have refused to follow Melbourne and Adelaide, which became a multi-sports venue in 2013, even though the SCG also stages Aussie Rules. They would rather retain the integrity of the traditional cricket pitch and the greater scope it offers for interesting cricket with a balance between bat and ball and especially the deterioration of a pitch through the game, and they cover the cricket square during the Aussie Rules season.
In February the drop-in at Eden Park, Auckland (a rugby venue for six months of the year) could be as boring as Melbourne was. Auckland has been using drop-ins for 20 years and they have rarely been satisfactory so much so that the Auckland Test match, once an annual fixture, has now been staged only twice in the past 11 years.
Drop-in pitches are soon set to feature in England via an initiative to bring cricket to the Olympic Stadium for the 2019 World Cup. A trial match is due to be held there next summer to see if the general facilities are suitable for international cricket. The idea, though, is only to play one-day cricket there, not Tests.
Furthermore with the advent of the new T20 competition in 2019 many existing English venues face the prospect of more wear on small squares as the fixture schedule becomes ever more crowded. The alternative may be between playing matches on tired surfaces and likely low scoring games or dropping in “roads” for high totals and excitement. The latter will probably be seen as the lesser of two evils, with high scoring spectacles being key, but Test Match cricket is as yet untouched in the UK.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
