Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup fifth round, four Premier League games and Football League fixtures.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown including the Imperial Cup. All weather meetings at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the 2017 Six Nations beginning with Wales v Ireland on Friday night, then France v Italy followed by England v Scotland on Saturday.
- Tennis ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Indian Wells Opens in California
- Golf, on the PGA European Tour the Hero Indian Open. On the USPGA Tour the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
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Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Get ready for the 2017 Festival by making sure you have all your bookmaker accounts set up. Bookmaker special offers here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Six Nations: England v Scotland Saturday 4pm
England have played poorly at times in all of their three games so far this Championship yet have won all three to take their record to 17 wins in a row under Eddie Jones. Ominously for their remaining opponents Scotland and Ireland they are getting back to full strength too, with the Vunipola brothers now back in the squad.
Scotland have played excellently all Championship, have won both their home games and lost by six points in Paris. A win at Twickenham on Saturday gives them an unexpected Triple Crown.
Scotland have a disciplined and accurate set of forwards and a back line with more creativity and flair than they have had for a long time. Some lack of power in the forwards (without so far a huge penalty count against them when under pressure) is compensated for with dogged defence and huge work-rate and when they secure good possession watch out, the backs can put up points.
It is claimed that teams have been raising their game to play England who have been inconsistently and sloppy in their games. Whether that is true or not, England need to step up and not give away unnecessary penalties, make unforced handling errors and turn over the ball.
England have been second best in the back-row scrap in all three games so far and because of this have suffered at the breakdown. In essence playing a (nonetheless brilliant ) second row Maro Itoje at blind-side and blind-side James Haskell at open-side alongside a back up number 8 in Nathan Hughes they have been outplayed. For Scotland the genuine scavenging open-side Hamish Watson changed the game against Wales and dominated the feted Warburton and Tipuric at the contact area, denying Wales quality possession.
I expect here England will opt for power, against which Scotland struggled at times in Paris, running at Finn Russell at fly half and making him tackle and trying to tie in the Scottish back row. They’ll hope to offload as the French did, work field position and keep the scoreboard ticking over and put the game away with their strong bench when Scotland are tackled out late in the game.
I think England will win and the game might not be as close as many pundits suggest.
In every match England have finished far stronger than the opposition, which suggests both a powerful bench and excellent conditioning. Since the start of 2016 England's average score in the first half is 14-10. In the second half it is a more convincing 18-8. If England finally manage to avoid the sloppy starts that have characterised their Championship then a double digit win is a decent probability
England are 1/5 outright, Scotland 4/1 and England -11 on the handicap. I prefer England to win by 11-20 (12/5) than 1-12 (7/4) in the winning margin markets with Betfair Sportsbook.
If I was playing points spreads England -5 on the second half handicap at 10/11 would be where I was looking.
10 points England to win by 11-20 points 13/5 Coral (5/2 Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power)
Normal Service Resumed
Last season, I amongst others wrote articles pronouncing that the “Premier League had changed forever” and that Leicester City’s title was but a symptom of a league with more depth and that the “top six” dominance might be a thing of the past. This season it is "back to normal" when looking at a table that reads: Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United and the sixth place side five points head of seventh and nine points ahead of eighth.
The notion that there was a substantial change in the Premier League taking place began in August 2015 when Mourinho spoke at the season launch and said.
“Every club has very good players so I think it’s difficult for the top teams in England because of the competitive nature” He continued “It’s also difficult because the other clubs now have players who could play in our teams”
Through the season the theme was repeated by managers and pundits with various reasons put forward as to a seemingly more competitive league. Primary amongst these was that the new TV deal had created a more level playing field, giving every club the resources to attract players from European leagues whilst the English top six couldn’t buy the real superstars to allow them to maintain a difference in squad quality.
Move on a year though and the top six are away and clear again. There is no sense that they can be caught and with the odd exception (Liverpool at lower ranked clubs for example) there are few surprise results.
After Monday’s match with West Ham Chelsea are 22 points ahead of seventh-placed Everton. Last season after 27 games seventh-placed Southampton were 16 points off the top and a sign of the difference is that Chelsea have 66 points this season 10 ahead of the total gained by Leicester who were top this time last year.
Sixteen points separate Manchester United in sixth from West Ham in 11th. At the same 27-game mark last season just seven points was the difference between sixth and 11th.
To put into context just how dominant the top six have been this season, they have accumulatively accrued 328 points. That's some 33 points up on last term. It betters the top-six points at this stage of the 2014/15 season by 25 points, 2013/14 by 11 points and 2012/13 by 26 points.
So what happened to lead to this substantial re-assertion within the league? Firstly the ‘big six’ did the obvious and spent a lot of money. The biggest spenders last summer were in order: City then United followed by Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool who combined to spend around £680 million. The rest of the league spent £510 million between them.
That £680m might have included Pogba and a 35 year old Ibrahimovic but didn’t include Messi, Neymar and the real difference makers in the current world game. The top six clubs did though attract several new top class managers and in came Antonio Conte and Pep Guardiola and with Mourinho , Klopp, Pochettino and Wenger rounding out the top six club managers (and interestingly,at various points at least three of these names have been under pressure this season) the talent in the ug-out compares favourably with the topof other major leagues.
It might be argued that Leicester City was a wake up call that has rendered all our previous justifications for the end of the dominance of the top six moot. That every time a club like that temporarily challenges the top 4 that is one less space in the Champions league to go round, for example and the response, in on and off field spending was quick and has rendered last season a one season phenomenon. The league has realigned again and competitive balance is weaker.
The fact that six teams are going for the top four is a positive but from that competitive balance viewpoint that there are others below them falling away is disappointing. Although they have collectively spent far less than the top six, there is significant money available and they need to respond to close that gap.
For now though, how the top six fare against one another in the second half of the season will go a long way to deciding the top four places ahead no doubt of another short term cycle of change next summer as clubs respond to the consequences of this season.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,179.90 (2nd March 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.72% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,179.90 a 954% increase
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League and Football League fixtures including Liverpool v Arsenal.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Acapulco and Sao Paulo
- Golf, the World Golf Championships, WGC- Mexico and on the European Tour the Tshwane Open in Pretoria.
- Cricket, the second ODI between the West Indies and England in Antigua on Sunday and the second Test Match between India and Australia in Bangalore starting Saturday.
- Rugby Union, the second week of the Super 18 2017 season
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
|
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Super 18 Rugby: Highlanders v Crusaders Saturday 6.35am GMT
The 2017 Super 18 Rugby season started last weekend and last season’s semi-finalists the Highlanders started their season with a home local derby, beaten 25-15 by the Chiefs. They trailed 14-9 at the break, gifting the Chiefs a couple of tries in the first half and they went on to lose the try count 3-0. It was a game where these mistakes completely undid the rest of the Highlanders performance as they dominated territory and possession. The Highlanders were 3.5 point favourites to win last week and they had won all three of their home derby matches in 2016 by margins of 1 to 10 points.
The Highlanders are a team that doesn’t have the household names of other New Zealand teams but now that their whole squad has had exposure to the finals campaign of Super Rugby I think they might have the personnel to push for a second championship in three years notwithstanding their opening week loss.
The Crusaders made a winning start although they had to work hard to see off the Brumbies 17-13 in Christchurch, scoring three tries to one. The Crusaders had been supported in the Round 1 betting market with the handicap shifting out from 10.5 points towards the mid teens by kick off and they led 12-3 at the break before “losing” the second half. In 2016 the Crusaders lost a cracking contest to the Highlanders (34-26) at this venue. Fly half Richie Mo’unga was injured last week and could be out of action for up to 10 weeks.
That injury is important because the Crusaders were already fielding the least experienced half-back combination in the New Zealand conference and whilst 1 through 15 they are a dangerous side they lack some squad depth.
The Highlanders are 4/6 favourites to bounce back here, the Crusaders 11/8 and 3 point underdogs. I expect the Highlanders to win and the over 2/1 available with Ladbrokes on a 1-12 point winning margin is my idea of the bet to have.
10 points Highlanders to win by 1-12 points 11/5 Ladbrokes (7/4 Betfair Sportsbook)
The New Manager effect, real or imagined?
Within the context of the current Premier League season after the sacking of Claudio Ranieri last week four of the current bottom six teams have changed managers. No great surprise there, the pressures to stay in the division with associated financial rewards are always an inducement to change for the boards of struggling clubs. For the three clubs where we have some results under the new manager to go on, results have been mixed:
* Swansea under Paul Clement have seen the biggest improvement (having had no positive impact from their change two months earlier to Bob Bradley) with 12 points gained from 21 possible
* Hull under Marco Silva have won 8 points and whilst they remain in the bottom three now appear to have some hope whereas little previously existed
* Perhaps surprisingly given his reputation Crystal Palace have struggled under Sam Allardyce ( who previously kept Sunderland up despite losing 7 of his first 10 games in charge). Until their win last weekend, they had secured only four points from his eight games in charge.
For Leicester, it remains to be seen whether their controversial move will make any difference beyond the win under the caretaker manager on Monday when everyone except their opponents knew they would be fired up.
Outside the Premier League this season, we’ve seen Birmingham City’s surprising move to replace Rowett with Zola be met with a resounding raspberry by the playing staff. Last season as soon as the by then unpopular Mourinho left Chelsea the players immediately picked up downed tools and results improved under Hiddink and on into this season. As much as anything we need to look at playing staffs and their prior and current motivation (or lack of it) as an indicator of whether a quick turn around is likely or not.
We all know about the supposed “new manager effect” to describe the recurring event in which football punters convince themselves that a struggling team’s form will improve because they have changed manager. The mixed results from such changes this season highlight how difficult it is to extrapolate from a series of individual situations and establish that the “new manager effect” is a sustainable theory of just a casual explanation for changes in short term variance and mean reversion.
Over the past two decades a series of academics have conducted studies into new managers and, by and large, the results of these investigations have poured cold water on the idea that one should back sides with a fresh face in charge.
Some of these are as follows:
In 2010, Sue Bridgewater wrote the book “Football Management” and looked at the first six games for new Premier League managers during the period 1992 to 2008 and found some improvements overall. Yet by games 12 to 18 she also found that the points benefit of changing the manager had largely vanished, suggesting that there is only a short-lived gain.
Analysing managerial turnover across 18 seasons up to 2004 in the Dutch Eredivisie, Ter Weel revealed patterns of decline and improvement around the replacement of one manager with another. However almost the same pattern could be observed where managers had not been sacked
A German student conducted a 35-year study of the results in her country’s top domestic football competition. Alexandra Tippenhauer’s father had been sacked from Bielefeld in 1980 and she found that Bundesliga sides which sacked a boss did no better in their next 12 matches than they have done in their previous dozen games.
In Italy De Paola and Scoppa, looked at Serie A seasons 2004 to 2008 and concluded that there was no evidence that managerial change produced any significant improvement in team performance within the same season.
In essence all these studies conclude that what we see under whichever manager is patterns of mean reversion which can be both positive (Chelsea last year to this) and negative (Leicester last year to this) and in some cases extremely so.
Top-level football managers get paid a lot of moneys precisely because of this variance and associated lack of job security and the practical impossibility of replacing a contracted team makes managerial positions often even more precarious in the modern era.
Returning to a subject close to my heart various analyses suggest that Leicester City are around the 13th best team in the 2016-17 Premier League (shots taken, chances created etc). If Leicester were 13th, no change would have been made whether the players liked it or not. If, a big if, short term results improve under a new manager the “new manager effect” will be credited but in reality it will just be the ebb and flow of regression at work.
More particularly when betting look at the individual situations and look at reasons for sacking and then look at the likely motivations of the players. It is within these squads that you will often find the answers, not the abilities or otherwise of a new manager in the short term.
Brodders Football Analysis
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £23,607.10 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.53% (correct at 02/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,179.90 (2nd March 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.72% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,179.90 a 954% increase
The Road to Riches Oscars Special: Weekend of 25th-26th February
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, Premier League and Football League fixtures and the Football League Cup final Manchester United v Southampton.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations, Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France and on Sunday England v Italy.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Rio, Marseille and Delray Beach in Florida.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Jo’burg Open and on the USPGA the Honda Classic at PGA National.
- Cricket, the first Test Match between India and Australia in Pune.
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
|
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
The Oscars by Neil Channing
There are 24 Oscars being dished out in the early hours of Monday morning. 18 of those categories have a favourite of 4/9 or shorter and only one does not include an odds-on favourite.
A lot of people will probably think it looks a bit dull from a betting point of view and just head off to bed but I think I should be able to find the odd good bet and I'll definitely be staying up as it's one of my favourite things.
There is one thing that none of us have been able to escape since last year's Oscar ceremony and that is politics. Clearly from an Oscars point of view, the main political story that is likely to come up is Trump and as well as the high chances that some award winners talk about the Mexican Wall, the attempts to stop Muslims entering the country and the controversial policies regarding the rights of various minorities, there is also a massive factor to consider...The Oscars are voted for by The Academy and The Academy includes lots of former winners and industry people who are generally more to the left and hence anti-Trump. I would say that wherever they can they will try to vote to attempt to stick it to the President as well as just knocking him in their speeches.
The obvious movie to bet if you share my view might be The Salesman in the Best Foreign Language Film. This film has gone from 11/8 into 6/5 since the film’s director Asghar Farhadi announced he was boycotting the awards. The Iranian director won this category in 2012 and the film is about a performance of Death of a Salesman in Tehran so it could be popular with the Academy even without the chance to protest against the travel ban. I will probably bet this one but I think I have a better value alternative that will be my tip for you today.
The five films in the Documentary Short category are all pretty worthy in terms of their subject. Three relate to the war in Syria and the refugees, one portrays families deciding to pull the plug on their relatives on life support and the other is about a holocaust survivor. A real barrel of laughs. I think the situation in Syria is the one that will catch the attention of the voters given it's prominence in the news this year and the film I'm going for is "The White Helmets" which has been released on Netflix meaning that it's much easier for all of the Academy to have seen it. This film has a bit of a PR machine behind it too especially as George Clooney has shown an interest in developing a feature film from the short. When I first saw the prices this one was the 5/1 third favourite behind odds-on Extremis (the will they/won't they flick the switch story which is also on Netflix). We may have missed some of the early juice but I still think 3/1 is great value and there is an argument that this film really ought to be the favourite here.
I'm having 8 Points The White Helmets to win the Best Documentary Short Oscar at 3/1 with Betfred and Sportingbet.
A look ahead to the 2017 F1 season
It is a month until the first Grand Prix of the 2017 season in Australia and this week has seen the launch of cars ahead of the pre-season tests in Barcelona beginning next week. A new set of rules has been introduced for the 2017 season and the pre-season tests will see the first clues as to whether the established pecking order could be shaken up or the front runners have extended their advantages.
It is a time of much change for F1 with new owners in Liberty Media, the removal of Bernie Ecclestone and the return of Ross Brawn as managing director of racing. Brawn has said he wants to develop a purer, simpler sport in which more teams and drivers can win.
This year cars will be wider with bigger tyres and reshaped wings. With audience figures having dropped for F1 in recent years, and with the memory of a big shake up in the pecking order when the last big overhaul of the regulations took place in 2009 (Brawn took advantage of a loophole to go from nowhere in 2008 to World Champions in 2009), many F1 watchers are hoping that there will be fresh challengers to Mercedes dominance and new rivalries within more exciting racing to attract new audiences.
For the past six years, F1 tyres have had high 'thermal degradation'. They over-heated when drivers pushed hard and never recovered their grip. Drivers had to lap below top speeds to extend tyre life. The FIA has instructed Pirelli that tyres must not overheat irrecoverably when a driver is following another car and the rate of degradation must be such that drivers can push hard throughout a race.
Restrictions on engine development have also been relaxed. The complicated 'token' system that limited the amount of changes allowed to engines in a season has been dropped. Now, the only restrictions are that any developments can be introduced only with a new engine. Teams are still limited to four engines in a season.
The fear in some quarters is that the new cars could reduce overtaking. The wider cars and tyres mean the cars will produce more drag and will be slower in a straight line whilst cornering speeds will be higher. Braking distances will inevitably be reduced, which makes overtaking harder. Having said all of this we need to consider that DRS has a big impact in overtaking in the F1 of today so the ‘power’ of the 2017 DRS systems (i.e. the speed difference between a DRS active and non DRS car) will be important.
Mercedes F1 boss Toto Wolff, who was opposed to the rule changes, says: "I hope that overtaking is not going to be too difficult because of the width of the car and the dirty air behind it - but let's see."
On Five Live this week Lewis Hamilton said “"My engineers say it's going to be a lot harder to overtake. If we see overtaking is worse, it's going to be worse for the fans, the spectacle will be worse so I'm hoping that's not the case.”
If that happens, serious questions will be asked about the decisions that were made which compelled teams to develop a new type of car only to make F1 a worse spectacle. .
As it is, notwithstanding the fears that over-taking will be even more difficult, there is hope that a team, most probably Red Bull with superb engineers and a track record of doing well in years with regulation changes, will be that bit closer to Mercedes and give a genuine two team fight for the Drivers and Constructors championships, something the sport needs after three years of one team being so far ahead, and another team being far ahead in the three years before that.
Lewis Hamilton hopes so too. In the same radio interview he said “I think Red Bull always create an amazing car and this is a new area of down-force so I think it'll be really interesting to see what they pull out and I'm hoping it'll be a real mixture of competition. I hope it'll be close so we'll be fighting with Red Bull and Ferrari. That's what the fans want to see."
Brodders Football Analysis
If you started following Brodders soccer on January 1st this year and bet £10 a point on all bets you would be winning £4398 with ROI+20.53%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Brodders soccer long term (2014 -2017) +£23,298.80 profits at just £10 a point (average bet 15 points)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th February
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, FA Cup fifth round weekend
- Racing, Jumps meetings at.Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. All weather meetings at Kempton and Lingfield.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, Memphis and Rotterdam
- Golf, on the European Tour the World Super 6 in Perth and on the USPGA the Genesis Open at Riviera in California
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
|
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
|
Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
FA Cup Fifth round
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur 2pm Sunday BBC1
Before the third round I wrote about the Premier League club’s varying motivations for the FA Cup and how that might play out. The third and fourth rounds saw a number of shock results and inevitable column inches on the competition’s future. Te result of these shocks is that for the fifth round this weekend only 8 of the 16 remaining sides are from the top flight.
As it happens the draw kept all the Premier League sides apart and increased the likelihood that come the final we will see two top-six sides meeting at Wembley. However for reasons that we all know there are still opportunities for the underdogs. In three cases this weekend I think that applies, as follows:
- Millwall v Leicester City
Leicester have Seville next midweek and Ranieri said yesterday that he would change the whole team for this weekend (which may not be a negative, but still). Millwall have already beaten weakened Bournemouth and Watford sides at home in the Cup this season, are going well in the league and have to have a good shot here. Unfortunately at 2/1, a lot of that is factored in.
- Middlesbrough v Oxford
Middlesbrough are one of six sides in a very tight relegation battle and don’t score many goals. Certainly they don’t score enough goals to justify being 1-2 here. Oxford beat Newcastle 3-0 in the last round and have beaten eight clubs from higher divisions in cup competitions under Michael Appleton. At 13/2+ they were on my shortlist
- Fulham v Tottenham
Taking Tottenham first, they played Gent in Belgium on Thursday and lost narrowly. The second leg is at Wembley next midweek. The Thursday side was first choice and, much as in the comeback win against Wycombe in the last round, this will be a squad team with a few potential game changers on the bench if required. Top four in the League is likely but not a foregone conclusion and they need to stay in the Europa League as another potential way of getting into the Champions League next year.
Earlier this week a Fulham fan (a generally sceptical Fulham fan, which seems the most sensible position to take) told me that this side as “the best we have had in five years”. Under the radar for watchers of the Premier League, this is a young side now managed by Slavisa Jokanovic where the owner Shad Khan and his son Tony appointed an American data analyst (Craig Kline) who is “Director of statistical recruitment” and dictates transfer policy.
This hasn’t always been a harmonious relationship but in the likes of Aluko, Ayite, Piazon, McDonald, Johansen, Malone, Odoi and Ryan Sessegnon a competitive team has emerged which, after two previous seasons of mediocrity following relegation to the Championship, is just outside the play off spots and has only lost eight league games all season.
An option here has to be “Draw no bet” (Fulham 12/5 Bet365 2/1+ elsewhere) if we are backing the underdog but for the purposes of this free tip we’ll shoot a bit higher
8 points Fulham v Tottenham 7/2 Betfred or Paddy Power (100/30 elsewhere)
Georgia on my mind.
Georgia’s Rugby Union side have won the Six Nations 'B' competition (the Rugby Europe Championship) for each of the past six seasons. At the last World Cup they won two games and played well for a long way against the All Blacks. At the start of the Six Nations recently they were officially world ranked 12ths one place above Italy.
A recent report mooted the idea of Georgia being included in the Six Nations structure, with promotion and relegation being introduced each year. Six Nations Chief Executive John Feehan’s response was negative
“I’m sure it would be interesting but we’ve got to look at it from the integrity of our competition and what’s good for us and not necessarily what’s good for Georgia. I don’t mean that in any nasty way other than to say that my role is to make sure that the six unions which are involved in the Six Nations maintain the credibility of the tournament. “
Increasing the Rugby World Cup 20 teams was justified by increasing the possibility for the game globally, and clearly that isn’t a priority for the Six Nations but it is a shame nonetheless.
Georgia show continued signs of progression. They have sealed automatic qualification for RWC Japan 2019 and they regularly attract crowds of 50,000 for the Rugby Europe Championship. The contrast with Italy could not be more stark. Since they joined what was then the Five Nations in 2000, Italy have finished bottom of the Six Nations table on 11 occasions.
Just this past weekend Italy lost by 53 points at home to Ireland. Their biggest losing margin in the Six Nations is 57 points v England 2001, then 53 v Wales 2016 now matched this year. Meanwhile the best of the Italian franchises Zebre and Treviso continue to get beaten soundly in the Pro12 and European Cup rugby. After the defeat last weekend Corriere Dello Sport headlined “We don’t deserve to be in the Six Nations”.
New coach Conor O’Shea has been brought in and there is a five year plan to build on the investments made in the youth system and become competitive. “There will be days like these” he said after the Ireland game.
Sixteen years after Italy joined the championship though the status quo is looking less tenable. The Six Nations options include:
- Expansion, though the scheduling implications and club/country conflicts are an increasing issue
- Promotion/relegation
- A play off between the winner of the Rugby Europe competition and the bottom side in the Six Nations
Most importantly of all though, is there a will for all parties to do any of these? For now, probably not as evidenced by the reluctance to schedule any Italy v Georgia fixtures on the calendar and outside of the World Cup, Georgia have played just one match against a Six Nations team in the past decade.
Away from the playing side, Italy has a population of 60m and Georgia 4m and one media expert said “The overall media-rights value of the Six Nations would almost certainly fall if Italy were relegated and Georgia were promotedmainly due to the difference in size and value of the two media markets,”
Unless Italy improve quickly though, the pressure for change is going to continue to rise.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th February
** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, Premier League games include Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Rugby Union: the second weekend of 2017 Six Nations, Wales v England and Italy v Ireland on Saturday and France v Scotland on Sunday.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Montpellier, Sofia and Quito, Fed Cup 1st round matches
- Golf, on the European Tour the Maybank Championship in Malaysia and on the USPGA the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Six Nations France v Scotland Sunday 3pm BBC1
France played England off the park for 60 minutes at Twickenham. Their huge forwards controlled the close exchanges and, at long last, their backs really turned it on. Louis Picamoles was brilliant but scrum-half Baptiste Serin has revived the French team and increased the tempo of their attacks hugely. Sadly for the French, I felt Guy Noves the coach got his substitution strategy wrong after an hour, Serin was substituted, the French attack withered and England’s bench changed the game. France with 127 carries to England's 96, and 591 metres made to England's 383, lost.
Novès will be really disappointed that France did not see the game out, but he has to be encouraged by how his team played. They are creating a powerful mix of big carries, off-loads and links to their back three who are capable of breaking out from any part of the pitch at any moment .Virimi Vakatawa and Noa Nakaitaci were both frequently involved and Scott Spedding hit some great lines. The quick passing and interplay between forwards and backs was fun to watch for that hour.
Many pundits and writers agreed that while Scotland could definitely beat Ireland, few expected them to actually do it. With Wales and Italy to come at Murrayfield, Scotland could well ensure they finish the tournament with a 100 per cent record at home. Against Ireland Scotland had three chances in the first half and scored three tries. They were smashed in the front row but benefitted from miscues in the Irish line out, huge work-rate by the back five forwards (Jonny Gray made 28 tackles) with tireless defending and work rate off the ball and the individual brilliance of Stuart Hogg.
Most significantly when they went behind 22-21 with 20 minutes to go they came back went ahead and closed out the game. This is a huge step forward for a team that has struggled to do this for several years. In the last few minutes Greig Laidlaw’s composure and game management were crucial.
They face quite the challenge to back this up in Paris, especially the key question of how do they hold on in the scrum. Facing the French off the back foot is going to be difficult, notwithstanding their ability to create turnovers at key moments and line speed in defence. They will hope to run the huge French pack around and be in the game for the last twenty minutes and use what they expect to be better fitness at that stage. The interesting part of the team selections is that in making one change, France have gone for more bulk and power in selecting Chouly in the back row whilst in replacing the injured Wilson with the noted snaffler John Barclay, Scotland have yet more speed and turnover ability. It is in this battle up front that the game will be decided.
Outright odds for the game are France 4/9, Scotland 2/1 and France -6/Scotland +6. I prefer France -6, the second half being the highest scoring at 5/6 and this bet below for the game.
10 points France to win by 1-12 points 7/4 Coral (13/8 Skybet)
The Kante Role
In part, the 2016-17 Premier League season is a tale of two clubs. Chelsea have 30 more points after 24 games this season compared to last. Leicester City have 29 less. Of course there are a variety of reasons for this change in performance at both sides but there is one striking common denominator, the (not at all biased) wonderful holding midfielder N’Golo Kante who arrived in the Premier League at the start of last season for the now eye-opening fee of only €8 million and has since only lost 6 of the 60 games he has played. Although only having been in the league for a season and a half, he’s recorded the most tackles of any Premier League player over the last three seasons.
Lets take Leicester City first (get it out of the way). At the time of writing Leicester City have won 114 fewer tackles and made 188 fewer interceptions in 2016/17 than they had at the same point last season. Not all of that is Kante but much of it is. His loss has been widely felt. The favoured 4-4-2 formation has often been over-run without him. The central defenders Morgan and Huth have looked slow and cumbersome without his protection and the trademark counter-attacking style has struggled to launch without Kante winning possession and allowing quick and often unexpected transitions from defending to attack.
The now famous quote by the former Head of Player recruitment (now at Everton) Steve Walsh is apposite “People say we play two in the middle but we don’t. We play Drinkwater and then Kante either side”
Turning to Chelsea, buying Kante for £32m on a five year contract has to be seen as a steal. In the past week Chelsea have had two big games against top six opponents, Liverpool and Arsenal and have gained four points to remain nine points clear as we enter the final third of the season.
His performance against Liverpool attracted a lot of attention but wasn’t especially unusual for him. Nevertheless recording 16 tackles during the game, 14 of which were successful was enough to get the pundits purring. In the second half alone he won all 12 of the tackles he attempted, 7 of which were in Liverpool’s half.
Moving onto the Arsenal game last weekend Coquelin and Oxlade-Chamberlain in central midfield were over-run by Kante and Nemanja Matic and one column afterwards stated
“N'Golo Kante has officially made 'The Makelele Role' a thing of the past. From now on, the position of defensive midfielder will be forever known as 'The Kante Role'.”
So what makes him so good? Firstly his engine, he is an excellent athlete and really covers the ground. A journalist tweeted during the Arsenal game that he “must have a tardis” to be in central midfield one moment and dispossessing a wide midfielder the next. Secondly he can tackle and tackle cleanly and has superb positioning to anticipate and intercept regularly. Thirdly he can play too, picking passes across a range of distances and particularly good at sparking transition.
His role in the Chelsea team is enhanced by being next to another top class holding midfielder in Nemanja Matic an enforcer (if required) with a real physical presence. Whilst Chelsea have only conceded 17 goals in 24 league games much of the focus has been on the dramatic improvement in defensive form since the switch to three central defenders (and thus providing some protection to Luiz ) in September but the defensive barrier starts before you reach Cahill, Luiz and Azpiliceuta with Kante and Matic, a partnership no team has managed to get the better of this season so far.
Last season Sir Alex Ferguson described Kante as “the best player in the Premier League”. If he was then, he is more so now. For £32m he is both the signing and loss of the season and is having a major impact at both ends of the table.
When it comes to end of season gongs, it has become very unusual for defensive players, especially defensive midfield players, to get much recognition. In the betting for PFA Player of the year the head of the market sees, unsurprisingly, Hazard and then Kante whose odds have crunched down for 20-1 to 5-2 in a week at which point he is ahead of the likes of Costa, Zlatan and Alli.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders Football Analysis: January 2017 to date: +£3481 betting £10 a point, +ROI 52%
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,292 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.84%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
