Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Manchester United.
- Cricket, the IPL continues ahead of the play-offs next week.
- Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Bangor and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, ATP Rome, ahead of the French Open.
- Golf, on the USPGA the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship and on the European Tour the Belgian Knockout.
Starting next week: French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 19th - 23rd June 2018
Neil’s write-ups, analysis and tips for every race of the festival which takes place from 19th - 23rd June 2018 costs £199
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The FA Cup Final
This column is in the fortunate position of having an ante-post bet on Chelsea at 6-1 for the FA Cup, in which they play Manchester United in the final this weekend. I follow Neil Channing’s general view on hedging: we have a bet at a good price, the stake isn’t outside the parameters of a reasonable staking plan and so we’ll let it ride.
In terms of the match itself if we wanted to be bearish on Chelsea it is easy to construct the argument: Conte himself, at the end of a fractious season, might have checked out. With (an albeit remote) prospect of a top four Premier League place up for grabs Chelsea lost 3-0 at Newcastle last Sunday in a very half-hearted effort.
Simultaneously the case for Manchester United is easily made. Often somewhat defensively Mourinho is skilled at setting his team up for big one-off games and looks to nullify the opposition’s strengths first, so here that means attention on Hazard first and foremost. In a season where they finished the season second in the Premier League they rarely set pulses racing.
The case for Manchester United is reflected in outright prices for the game. United are 7/4 favourites, Chelsea 15/8 underdogs with the draw the outsider in the 1-2-X market at 11/5.
The sides have met four times this season and under 2.5 goals has landed in three of the four times (and seven of nine times since 2014-2015) and the current price for that outcome here is a meagre 8/15. More generally United only conceded 28 goals in the 38 game league season with De Gea behind the back four and Matic in front of it and one goal in their run to the FA Cup final (with Romero in goal).
Chelsea meanwhile, despite their fifth place league finish, only conceded an average of a goal a game and two goals in their FA Cup campaign including going to extra time twice. Chelsea managed just 39 goals in their final 26 Premier League matches, and they failed to score in 9 of those games.
There has to be a more than reasonable chance that this game goes beyond 90 minutes, and in the “to lift the trophy” market prices are United 4/5 Chelsea Evens.
At the prices I think my central expectation would be that the game would go to extra-time in a low scoring affair and the draw at 11/5 with Bet365 is the outright play and for this column Draw/Draw in the half time/full time market provides a bit more juice..
As long as Chelsea win at the end (not something you will often find me saying!)
10 points FA Cup final Half Time/Full Time Draw/Draw 7/2 SkyBet 100/30 Bet365 16/5 William Hill/Betfred
Roy of the Rovers
A dozen English cricketers have been playing in the IPL in the last month with varying degrees of success. Many of these cricketers have played test cricket but in many cases they have made their name in the one day game have moved away from first class cricket rather than look to establish themselves in the Test team.
It might be argued that one such is Jason Roy, who I have been watching since he was a teenager. After Roy, a naturally gifted cricketer for flat tracks and fielding restrictions but without the water-tight technique for the red ball game, had made 180 in the late Australian summer ODIs there were calls for him to be pushed into the Test team. I would argue that he is a limited-overs specialist.
Whether he has the ability to play all forms for England it is now unlikely to be soon. Having been encouraged to sign up for the IPL auction by England, Roy’s next first-class match is likely to be on July 20. That would be his only four-day game before England pick their Test squad for the first Test against India.
What is then frustrating is that for the most part (one blistering innings for the Delhi Daredevils and a few failures apart) Roy has warmed the bench in India for the bottom side in the competition.
One of the big features of English cricket in recent years is how many players had seen their Test ambitions decline through lack of opportunity to make their case in the longer format. Players like Roy, Alex Hales and others are not choosing between limited-overs cricket and Test cricket, they are choosing their international short-format careers over first-class cricket for their counties which more or may often not lead to Test cricket. Aside from the obvious financial reason for doing so in the last four years England have played 50 Tests and 123 one-day internationals and T20 internationals so there are more limited over opportunities available.
Players choose the IPL over the first-class early season domestic cricket which is often played on poor pitches in questionable weather with no guarantee of Test cricket to follow, and and often capricious selection policy to accompany that uncertainty. The upshot is that a lot of promising young England players find themselves specialising on the one day game, and not just for financial reasons.
As England are top of the ODI rankings and after a poor winter are now 5th in the Test rankings it is an easy argument that the Test team itself has suffered from having so many promising cricketers diverted away from first-class cricket as they approach their peak and ready to play all formats for their country.
Perhaps a new national England Test selector picking Jos Buttler for the first Test against Pakistan (and removing a star player from the Rajastan Royals were they to make the IPL play-offs next week) is a welcome sign that the balance might be redressed slightly going forward.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12-13th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the last weekend of the Premier League season and the Football League play off semi-finals
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final Leinster v Racing92 in Bilbao.
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- F1, the Spanish Grand Prix
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Nottingham and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick.
- Tennis, ATP Madrid Open
- Golf, on the USPGA the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
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Spanish Grand Prix, Sunday 1.10pm, Barcelona
Toto Wolff of Mercedessaid after a topsy-turvy Azerbaijan Grand Prix that he felt this was developing into a classic season. In four races there have been three different winners from three teams with mid-late race twists that have changed the most likely looking result.
Ferrari and Mercedes are separated by only four points at the head of the constructors championship and whilst the battle for that title is not quite a three horse race yet on an individual race basis there is now a much greater “race winner” shortlist than last season and any of the drivers from Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull could win.
The bigger picture is that it can be argued now for the first time in four years that the fastest car in the field is Ferrari not Mercedes. Vettel has been on pole for three of the four races. Whilst Mercedes retains an inherent advantage in the “qualifying” modes available to it for single lap pace the fact that Vettel is now able to mix it for pole position on a regular basis begins to remove one of the key advantages Mercedes have had throughout 2014-2017. To win, Ferrari would usually have to come from behind.
Barcelona is a track on which the teams conducted winter testing in poor conditions. Mercedes were quickest the Ferraris struggled on the corners but it looks like that issue has been addressed now.
A closer front end of the grid is being reflected in individual race prices. Hamilton went off odds on for each race (without grid penalties) for over two seasons but for this race he is odds against. Variance is high too, three teams are closely matched and close racing has led to incidents, safety cars and varying strategy calls. If Mercedes doesn’t win the development race over the remainder of the season (and in a period of static regulations we are talking incremental rather than step change improvements) we may be entering a period where Vettel should go off favourite on occasions.
The markets are not there yet, therefore at the prices, Vettel at 5/2 here is attractive.
10 points Sebastian Vettel to win the Spanish Grand Prix 5/2 William Hill/Coral
London calling
A fortnight ago the FA announced that it was considering selling Wembley for around £600m to Shahid Khan of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Fulham FC
For some no amount of cash would be appropriate to transfer the national stadium to a US entrepreneur. Others including the FA are prepared to consider that this will unlock money for the re-generation of grassroots football, albeit at a mooted sale price less than the £757m build cost.
This offer from Khan is the first one received. There is no exclusivity in the sale process so rival offers are a possibility, and with it essentialy an auction process.
As a counterpoint to the stadium cost compared to the suggested sale price the FA has earned income from Club Wembley packages and high ticket prices since the renovation. The FA argues it will release money for its core purpose of improving grassroots football and facilities while continuing to play England matches and FA Cup finals/semi-finals at Wembley.
As for the public playing facilities that the FA pledges will be the beneficiaries of any sale, £600m is a big sum. When the Football Foundation was formed in 2000 to administer the promised investment from the Premier League of 5% of its TV revenues (which it is not making) it commissioned a report. The audit found that the years of under-investment mostly from local authority funding cuts had left poor facilities that would take £2bn to fix. Unlocking £600m tied up in Wembley would make a major difference.
As far as Jacksonville is concerned Khan said it would allow the franchise’s footprint to grow in London and make it more profitable, with the belief that there’s a lot of growth potential for Wembley as an entertainment venue. Also, Wembley is not set up for American football, and Khan could renovate (putting in a sunk turf field underneath the football pitch, adding new locker rooms) to rectify that.
There’s also the possibility that an NFL franchise in London could be shared with a U.S. city. The Jaguars have played one home game per year in London annually since 2013, and are under contract to continue with that through 2025. Is the idea of playing half their schedule in London feasible?
Alternatively it may finally, if the deal goes through, be the precursor to a full London franchise. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the players and the NFL runs out in 2020. The new round of TV deals in the US kick into gear in 2022. So the sweet spot could well be 2021 and a London franchise incorporated into a new CBA and add value to the league’s US TV deal negotiations.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)
Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches 5th-6th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches and Cardiff and Fulham play final league games with Promotion to the Premier League on offer
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- Snooker, the conclusion of the World Championships at the Crucible.
- Racing, On the flat the Guineas meeting at Newmarket and also meetings at Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Estoril, Istanbul and Munich
- Golf, on the USPGA the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.
French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here
Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
Super Rugby Round 12
Saturday 5th May 8.35am Hurricanes v Lions
This column’s ante-post selection for 2018 Super Rugby the Hurricanes are second in the extremely tough New Zealand Conference with 7 wins out of 8 and this weekend host last season’s finalists the Lions, who suffered a surprising 27-22 defeat in Queensland against the Reds last weekend.
Although 6 wins out of 10 games is enough to lead the weakest of the three conferences, the Lions are unlikely to cover +13 here against one of the toughest attacking line ups in the competition
The Hurricanes have scored 267 points in their 8 games, over 120 more than their opponents and have stuck nearly 30 points on each of their three toughest opponents so far the Crusaders, Highlanders and Chiefs in New Zealand conference derbies. They win from nowhere too, such as scoring on the last play of the game to beat the Sharks 38-37 in one of the most exciting games I have seen for many a year
Thinking back to the Hurricanes of yesteryear and what defined them was their unpredictability. They were famously erratic, brilliant one week and then unrecognisable the next.
They had flair but so little graft. Not now. Since Chris Boyd and John Plumtree arrived as coaches in 2015, they have instilled in the players a real work ethic to go with the brilliant skill and finishing ability
The most telling evidence of the strength of the culture the current coaching team have built is the loyalty of the players.
Dane Coles was willing to play in the 2016 Super Rugby final with broken ribs such was his desire to be part of the club's most momentous day.
TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett have been hunted by clubs across New Zealand and around the world but they were never going to do anything other than sign long term deals to play for the Hurricanes.
Julian Savea had the chance to move on after last year and try to rekindle his career elsewhere. But it didn't take him long to reject the idea and decide that if he was going to win a test recall, the Hurricanes would be the best place from which to try.
What the Hurricanes have also done well is rejuvenate or kick-start a handful of careers and develop players such as Vince Aso, Nagni Laumape and Ben Lam way beyond expectation.
Lam has been a revelation.Shifting to Wellington from the Blues has transformed him into a genuine All Blacks contender
Once renowned for their unpredictability, the Hurricanes are now the most stable and consistent club in the competition.
The Hurricanes are now 13/8 favourites for the title, backed at 4/1. Rather than taking -13 at 10/11 (itself a corking bet I think) for this column we will go into the Winning Margin market
8 points Hurricanes to win by 21-30 points 4/1 Betfair/Paddy Power or Labrokes/Coral
Things ain’t what they used to be.
NFL teams are changing the way they construct their rosters. This year for example in the draft just gone the Rams didn’t pick until the third round, using higher draft picks to acquire veteran players in the previous month.
The Rams had learned the hard way that the Draft selection process is high variance. In 2012 they sent the number 2 pick overall to Washington and emerged with eight extra draft picks over three years, including five in the top two rounds. Six years later, only one of those extra players is left on the roster. The problem was that they didn’t have the time to develop their young players thanks to new practice rules established by the 2011 collective bargaining agreement.
As a result a good case can be made that the draft just isn’t as important as it used to be. Time has become is the scarce resource in the NFL.
In the pre-2011 NFL, when teams held 50 plus full-contact practices before the start of the season and salary-cap space was tight, signing expensive free agents and eschewing the draft was the quickest way to miss the playoffs. There was almost no debate across the league that the best method for building a roster was to draft and develop. For many years there was a correlation. More draft picks equalled more change of making the play-offs.
The new CBA has shifted the dynamic, making veterans more valuable and rookies less so. The biggest reason has been the reduction in practice time. Teams used to hold full-contact practices in the offseason, two-a-days during training camp, and had no limitations on full-contact practices during the regular season. Under the new CBA, spring practices are strictly regulated with no contact, no pads, and only four hours per day at the facility. Two-a-days in training camp have been eliminated, and teams can hold only 14 padded practices throughout the entire regular season.
These restrictions are great for the players’ health and safety, but terrible for developing young players especially those that play in college offenses that don’t translate to the NFL.
The Rams ran a study, and concluded that it now takes players about three years to have the same amount of practice time they would have got in one year under the old CBA. Young players usually get a couple of years to prove themselves, but if they don’t make immediate contributions, teams move on quickly.
The other big change in today’s NFL is that the league is awash in salary-cap space. The cap has consistently risen by $10-$12m each year, from $123m in 2013 to $177.2 million in 2018, thanks to an influx of TV money. Also the new CBA allows teams to roll over any unused cap space to the next year (the Browns rolled over $58.9m this year). The 49ers entered the offseason with more than $100m in cap space, while 20 teams had $20m in space, and 12 teams had $40m.
So adding veterans isn’t as cost-prohibitive as it used to be. The Eagles just won the Super Bowl with free agents Alshon Jeffery, LeGarrette Blount, Chris Long, Timmy Jernigan, and Torrey Smith all playing crucial roles.
There have been 24 trades this calendar year, compared with 10 at the same date I 2017, and 4 in 2016.
The draft may not be as important as it used to be, but it still carries plenty of weight. But whereas draft picks used to be counted on to be the cornerstone of a team, now they are viewed more as low-cost and fill-the-gap type players. The new CBA instituted a new rookie wage scale that has made most rookies tremendous value locked in at below-market rates for four seasons.
With teams awash in cap space, and young players not getting the coaching and development that they need, the importance of the draft just isn’t what it used to be.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)
Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Arsenal.
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- Snooker, the middle weekend of the World Championships at the Crucible.
- Racing, Bet365 Gold Cup Day at Sandown. On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP Barcelona and Budapest
- Golf, on the USPGA the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana and on the European Tour the Volvo China Open.
French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here
Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown by Neil Channing
The Whitbread, (as I shall definitely continue to call it until Denise agrees to meet me and comply with all demands), is a brilliant race for those of us that love an each-way bet and who can get 1/4 1234 terms. If you can get the 1/4 12345 with Bet365 then you are probably having a really good bet whichever horse you pick.
The presence of Blaklion in the field, carrying close to twelve stone means that we have three horses down the bottom out of the handicap. With all the rain they had Friday morning and at the start of racing on Friday plus the rain expected Friday night I can see the ground getting properly soft and I don't fancy betting anything woth a really big weight over this marathon trip. I decided to simply look at the horses that are in the handicap, racing off their "correct" mark, and also to not go for anything with eleven stone or more. That might easily mean I have elimintaed the winner but I'll take that risk and leave myself with "just" the odd thirteen tochoose from. I then ruled out a few that aren't keen on all this rain and that meant I eliminated Present Man, Benbens, Carole's Destrier, Sugar Baron and Relentless Dreamer. I also decided to cross off Domesday Book who has been off more than a year with an injury and who might not relish such a hard race on his return, Missed Approach who is up a fair bit in the weights and who won't get such an easy time up front as he did at Cheltenham and Rathlin Rose as I'm sick of betting David Pipe horses each-way in big handicaps and watching them run no race. I left myself with five possibles which I'll go through one by one...
Welcome, T16.4?
The England and Wales Cricket Board wants to introduce an innovative '100 balls' format into its new eight-team, city-based tournament.
The concept could see innings consist of 15 traditional six-ball overs, and a final 10-ball over, 20 balls shorter than traditional T20 matches.
Those devising the competition believe a 100-ball 'countdown' would attract new audiences (specifically, “Mums and Kids”) and be popular with broadcasters.
Southampton, Birmingham, Leeds, London, Manchester, Cardiff and Nottingham have been selected as venues for the five-week competition, which starts in 2020.
Both Lord's and The Oval will host newly-created teams in the competition with the Ageas Bowl, Edgbaston, Headingley, Old Trafford, the Swalec Stadium and Trent Bridge the other grounds chosen.
The BBC and Sky Sports will broadcast live TV coverage of the new men's and women's domestic tournament each summer from 2020 to 2024.
The new competition will take place alongside the existing T20 Blast which is expected to be unaffected by the proposed format changes.
The ECB believes the concept will help to appeal to families and a more diverse and younger audience, and provide some distinction from the T20 Blast.
When I heard the news I wasn’t sure where to start. Admittedly I am a fan of test cricket and longer formats and so not the (new) target audience the format is aimed at, but then again most current watchers of cricket don’t seem to be either. I came back to an essential point:
There is nothing wrong with T20! Whether at the IPL, the Big Bash or a variety of other competitions including our T20 Blast, which the ECB now describes as “popular” rather than “mediocre”, the format is established.
T20 works because it is a simple shortening of the game to fit in with the lifestyles of greater number of people than Test cricket allows
Will this gimmicky imitation really attract a new audience? A presence on terrestrial TV will help but trends such as participation in schools and competition from other leisure activities aren’t likely to reverse.
The likelihood is that the new format is driven by broadcasters, with the BBC needing games wrapped up by 9pm so schedules aren’t disrupted.
Ten counties, those not chosen to host T16.4 (awaiting the marketing title, journalists have dubbed it “The Hundred”) are already marginalised, bought off by a £1.3m per annum payment for signing up not hosting.
Some of the counties with Test grounds need the competition to be a success to help them financially. The real problem is that another short format will hasten the decline of longer forms domestically. In 2020 there would be no four day cricket in June and August with the Championship shoehorned into April-May and September with worse weather, green early season or tired end of season pitches and little or no relevance to Test cricket, for which we hope to produce players and currently struggle to do.
One county chief executive said this week “There is no future in this format unless the IPL and BBL adopt it and they won’t. BBC2 are perhaps hoping this will become Celebrity Big Batting”
Even accepting a personal position as a traditionalist, this just feels like an idea too far. It’s a commercial gamble, no more no less.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,861.40 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.53% (correct at 03/04/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning £39,253.60 . All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,253.60 an 981% increase
(correct at 03/04/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup Semi Finals and a reduced programme of Premier League fixtures.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi Finals
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- Snooker, the start of the World Championships at the Crucible.
- Racing, On the flat at Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters and the Fed Cup semi-Finals
- Golf, on the USPGA the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.
Next week : the NFL Draft
Free write up this weekend with a range of individual markets discussed
See here
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here
Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
World Snooker Championship Betting Preview
The Championship starts at the Crucible this weekend
Mark Selby is the defending Champion and comes to the tournament with a win in the last ranking event before the worlds, the China Open. This follows a mixed season but he does tend to peak for the end of the season. He is not the favourite for the title, that’s Ronnie O’Sullivan. The five time world champion has five ranking event wins and another two finals this season.
The draw for the event, awaiting the 16 qualifiers but with the seedings in place looks quite lopsided. The top half of the draw is very tough and the top quarter especially which contains Selby, Murphy, Allen and Kyren Wilson. In the second quarter Higgins and Trump are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals
The bottom half looks more open from a betting perspective. Ding and Hawkins are the top seeds in the third quarter while in the bottom quarter Ronnie has Mark Williams and Neil Robertson.
Outright prices at the top end of the market are
O’Sullivan 2/1
Selby 4/1
Trump 8/1
Higgins 12/1
Ding 14/1
As last year, I have found myself watching some of qualifying on grainy live streams aware that the change to the structure of qualifying gives opportunities in the first round at the Crucible stuff
Firstly, the standard between the best qualifers and the bottom half of the top sixteen seeds is closer than it has been for some time. Just to take one example Ryan Day from outside the 16 has won three ranking events this year and the depth in the player base is greater as young players break through.
Secondly whether you rank 17th or 120th, you have to play three matches in qualifying (unlike the prior system where players ranked 17-32 got a bye to the final round). The result is that each of the sixteen qualifiers is battle hardened through three long form matches that only concluded Wednesday, with the tournament starting tomorrow. There is definitely a chance of catching a seed, most of whom haven’t been in competitive action for nearly three weeks, cold
Last year this column successfully picked Xiao Guodong to upset a seed. Overall four qualifiers won their first match at the crucible, and seven the year before the first under the new qualifying system.
This year I had a shortlist of qualifiers awaiting the draw as follows:
Ryan Day – provisionally ranked 13, three tournament wins, a semi and four quarter finals this season, much improved and beat Ebdon to qualify which takes patience
Stephen Maguire. A few temperament issues, but essentially a top 16 player in ability with two semi finals this season including the UK.
Joe Perry, a former top 16 player who is experienced and is one big result away from getting back in after four quarter finals this season.
Xiao Guodong. One of the more reliable Chinese players outside the top two, three quarter finals this season. Lost 8 frames only in three qualifying matches, mirroring his performance before he won in the first round at the Crucible last year.
Jack Lisowski, off the back of a break-through season with a semi final and two quarter-finals and crushing McManus 10-2 in the final round.
Liam Highfield, a debutant at the crucible is a negative but I like what I see when he has appeared on our screens
I also had a shortlist of seeds that I considered vulnerable:
Marco Fu, missed much of the season following eye surgery in December and provisionally outside the 16 now and can’t be match sharp.
Luca Brecel, fantastic natural talent and a ranking event winning back in October in China that put him in the sixteen. Form has tailed off dramatically since, hasn’t been beyond the third round in seven tournaments in this calendar year.
Ali Carter, not much form having not been beyond the third round in his last 8 ranking tournaments.
Anthony McGill who lost in the first round last year and lost in the first round in China recently, albeit in a best of 11.
Mark Allen who won the 16 runner Masters in January beating a sick Ronnie along the way but has been beyond the first round twice since (focus and concentration issues the times I have seen him) and is outside the provisional top 16
I then watched the draw to see if any from these two lists matched up, and then off to check match odds to see if there is value.
Perry drew Selby, Xiao drew Ding and Maguire drew Ronnie. Off the shortlist.
Lisowski drew Bingham, two months back from his ban but in good nick, successive quarter finals recently. Tempting, but at only 6/5 I will leave it
That leaves Highfield who drew Allen and Day who drew McGill
Day has been installed as 4/5 favourite to beat McGill so for a free column looking for slightly more than putting an odds on shot up, a sporting alternative is Highfield.
The match sessions are 10am Sunday and Monday. This is perhaps a bit unbecoming, but Allen has always struck me as a man for whom the prospect of doing anything before midday was a little taxing. However lets ignore that.
10 points Liam Highfield to beat Mark Allen at 3/1 Sportingbet, Betfair Sportsbook, 3.84 Matchbook
It's a new Dawn,it's a new Day...
F1’s owner Liberty Media has unveiled its five-point plan outlining its vision of F1 for 2021. The sums spent by the top three F1 teams last year on developing their cars were were $380m Ferrari $360m Mercedes and $300m Red Bull. The headline point of the plan is that by 2012 spending will be limited to $150m in an attempt to level the playing field.
Liberty’s blueprint is a distillation of concepts that have previously been aired by Ross Brawn, F1’s sporting director. The key points also include cheaper, louder and simpler engines, that will be more attractive to new manufacturers and a proposal for revenue distribution to be more balanced, based on performance, and including a recognition of historical franchises and value – a reference to additional payments to teams such as Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull, above their share of performance revenue.
There is also an intention to have cars better suited to race one another, making the driver the predominant factor and maintaining the unique design while standardising parts that are not relevant to fans.
Christian Horner of Red Bull, who has long been critical of the rules as they stand, was broadly optimistic.
“The positive thing is they are focused on the fans. On creating a better show, a more affordable F1. The big question is the devil in the detail. They have put big issues up but how is it going to be delivered?”
Ferrari and Mercedes have previously expressed disquiet about the proposed changes with the former threatening to leave and the task now facing Liberty is reaching agreement with them.
Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team principal was cautious about the proposed cost cap. “We need to work with Liberty and find a compromise, that number will not be achievable but we are all in the same financial reality. You need to ask how you can achieve a sustainable business model without having any hardship on anybody.”
The teams below them on the grid, for whom this represents a chance to close what has become a vast gap to the top three, were unsurprisingly positive. Claire Williams, the Williams deputy team principal, was enthusiastic. “Everything they presented from revenue redistribution to cost cap is absolutely everything we want to see from 2021 and beyond,”
McLaren’s executive director, Zak Brown said “We all recognise the sport is not where it needs to be today, so it’s in our collective interest to improve the show.”
Brawn has described the current regulations as a deterrent to new teams and his plans met with approval from Andy Palmer, the head of Aston Martin. “These prospective changes support many of the requirements needed for Aston Martin to enter the sport as an engine supplier. This is a very positive step in the right direction.”
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