Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th-9th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Rugby Union, the third Test between New Zealand and the British Lions in Auckland on Saturday morning.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown (including the Coral Eclipse).
- Tennis, The middle weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, On the European tour the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Port Stewart. On the USPGA the Greenbrier Classic at White Sulphur Springs.
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix at Spielberg.
- Cricket, the first Test between England and South Africa continues at Lords.
- Cycling, Stages 8 and 9 in the mountains on the Tour De France
Wimbledon 2017 3rd-16th July
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Wimbledon 2017 (3rd - 16th July) |
The full package includes all of Nigel Seeley's outright and match analysis and details of all our bets.
Nigel shows a good long term profit on all Betting Emporium tennis +5.14% ROI on all bets from 2014.
In the French Open he was +ROI 50.75% and betting £10 a point (average 10 point bets) +£690.20.
Free Tip:
2017 Nat West T20 Blast Preview
18 counties compete for the English domestic T20 title starting this week. Teams are split into 2 divisions (North and South) each containing 9 teams for the group stage of the competition. During the group stage each club plays 6 of the other teams in the same division twice, home and away. They play the other two teams only once, and therefore 14 games total. Teams receive two points for a win and one point for a tie or if the match is abandoned. Teams are ranked by total points, then net run rate. At the end of the group stage, the top four teams from each group enter the knockout stage. Northants are the defending champions,
Every year the Blast is high variance from an ante-post betting perspective with many talented teams, a fair amount of luck needed with the weather and the shortest format of the game making individual results highly variable. All this is reflected in it being a 8/1 the field market and I usually look for an outsider to give run at a price. Twice in the last four years Northants have been an unfashionable winner of the competition at nice prices.
Worcestershire are available at 20/1+ (each way half the odds 1, 2 available), and only three sides in the competition are lower than them in the betting. This is a massive under-estimation of their ability and prospects and they start their campaign tonight against Warwickshire on Sky Sports in the first of four home games to begin their group stage.
Worcestershire topped their 50 over competition group this season with six wins out of eight beating Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire along the way before losing in the semi-finals and they are currently second in their county championship division behind Nottinghamshire. They failed to make the T20 Blast play-off's last season. Two “must win” games were abandoned in bad weather in the late group stages. They made the knock out stages in the two previous seasons.
The North group perhaps lacks the depth of the South group. Not only does it contain sides like Derbyshire and Leicestershire who are rarely competitive but Durham have a points deduction going into this competition. Yes, they have to face tough one day sides but when you compare the North Group to attempting to pick a team in the south group having to come through a heat of Surrey, Middlesex, Essex, Hants, Kent, Sussex and Somerset it’s a bit easier to draw a line through some of the North group teams.
Worcestershire are probably a stronger batting side than a bowling side but that batting line up is packed with game-winners.. Daryl Mitchell is a solid opener, Joe Clarke is a “next big thing” in the England Lions side and Ross Whiteley is a powerful hitter in the lower middle order just to name three players.
Overseas pros are a big determining factor in a T20 season, with two allowed to play in any game. Last season, Worcestershire struggled in this area with their two overseas quick bowlers Henry and Abbott only taking 8 wickets in 40 overs combined. This season John Hastings the Australian all-rounder is a solid option and the talented New Zealand spinner Mitchell Santner is back after being injured after one game in the competition last season.
Worcestershire are a strong white-ball side with fast developing talent. They look a mis-priced side in the competition to me and a viable betting alternative to the fashionable sides at the head of the market
6 points each way (1/2 1,2) Worcestershire to win the Nat West T20 Blast (25-1 with Sportingbet until the market was taken down), 22/1 Skybet or 20/1 Betfred or BetVictor. We'll record at 20/1.
Welcome to the club
Only ten countries have played Test cricket and the most recent country to be awarded test match status was Bangladesh in 2000. New Test teams tend to find the going tough. It took Bangladesh 35 Tests until their first victory. In their first 50 Tests against opponents other than Zimbabwe, Bangladesh lost 47 games and drew three. Last week the ICC announced that Afghanistan and Ireland have been voted in as fullmembers and awarded Test status..
Both countries have overcome many obstacles to get to this stage. Taking Ireland first, for seventy years the Gaelic Athletic Association prohibited the playing and watching of cricket, a ban which lasted until 1971. Cricket then remained a fringe sport in Northern Ireland and hardly played in the Republic.
In the early 2000s Ireland’s “Celtic Tiger” economy saw many people enter the country from cricketing nations such as Australia, South Africa and Pakistan. This was significant in enhancing playing standards and numbers and gradually eroded the historical image of cricket as a game for the British only and ultimately boosted the national team. Four members of the side who defeated Pakistan in Ireland’s inaugural World Cup in 2007 were born overseas. Ireland has since become the most successful non-Test nation of all time, beating five Test-playing countries in the past three World Cups despite losing three senior players to England (Morgan, Joyce and Rankin). Participation levels have quadrupled in the last decade.
Afghanistan’s cricketing story began when the game first took hold in Pakistan in the 1980s among refugees who had left during the Soviet War. Cricket's governing body in Afghanistan was founded in 1995 by a returning refugee. In 2004 a team largely made up of refugees played its first official international match. With foreign goverment support Afghanistan built the facilities to support the team and began to rise through international cricket. They qualified for their first World Twenty20 in 2010, and played in their first World Cup in 2015. The side is currently Afghanistan’s most successful sports team, and cricket is the country's most popular sport.
The danger is that the two new sides will become Test nations in name only. Zimbabwe, currently the lowest-ranked Test nation will receive $94m in ICC funding from 2016-23. Afghanistan and Ireland will receive just $40m each. That will hamper their ability to be competitive on the field. Initially, Afghanistan and Ireland are likely to play around only four Tests a year each and both will be excluded from the impending new league structure for Test cricket due to run between 2019 and 2023.
Afghanistan’s prospects are probably the brighter of the two. The side boasts some real talent including Rashid Khan, a brilliant leg-spinner who is the top wicket-taker in ODIs this year with 36. It also has a large playing pool. It will enjoy the greater financial clout as not only does it receive funding from foreign governments but also the ICC's $40m goes further in Afghanistan than it does in Ireland.The Afghan cricket board can already afford to fund 190 centrally contracted cricketers. Ireland has just 19.
The Irish team is less strong than five years ago. Even so, with extra cash from the ICC it can spend more money on development programmes. A higher profile could also stop cricketers leaving to play for England and encourage players with Irish ancestry in other countries who can’t make their own national teams to try to play for Ireland.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd July
Coming Up this weekend
- Rugby Union, the second Test between New Zealand and the British Lions in Wellington on Saturday morning.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newcastle,Newmarket,Windsor and York
- Tennis, The ATP Antalya Cup in Turkey and ATP and WTA Championships in Eastbourne, the final warm ups before Wimbledon next week.
- Golf, On the European tour the French Open. On the USPGA the Quicken loans national at TPC Potomac in Maryland.
- Football, the UEFA European Under 21 Championship final on Friday night between Germany and Spain, and the FIFA Confederations Cup final on Sunday between Germany and Chile.
- Cricket, the Royal London One day Cup final between Notts and Surrey at Lords.
Wimbledon 2017 3rd-16th July
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Wimbledon 2017 (3rd - 16th July) |
The full package includes all of Nigel Seeley's outright and match analysis and details of all our bets. A Mens Singlesoutright tip was published this morning.
Nigel shows a good long term profit on all Betting Emporium tennis +5.14% ROI on all bets from 2014.
In the French Open he was +ROI 50.75% and betting £10 a point (average 10 point bets) +£690.20.
Free Tip:
New Zealand v British Lions Second Test Saturday 8.35am BST Wellington
The second test in the three match series takes place in Wellington on Saturday after the All Blacks beat the Lions 30-15 in the first test.
In that first test the Lions were beaten at what was thought to be their main strength, the scrum and the gain line. Big direct All Black carries and a series of intricate short passes rendered the Lions’ blitz defence ineffective. Whilst the Lions had chances at start of both halves to score more points than they did, the score-line reflected what happens when you don't take your chances & the All Blacks do. Two or three lapses in concentration by the Lions each led to tries. IIn lock Brodie Retallick and No 8 Kieran Read the All Blacks possessed two forwards in great form.
For the Lions their own supposed big weapons (the driving maul, a strong scrum, a packed bench) made no impact. The only maul led to a turnover and only Maro Itoje of the replacements represented an upgrade on the man who started. Their heaviest Test defeat in 12 years could have been worse, the winning margin flattered by a Lions try with the last play of the game. The Lions were limited to 38% possession and 37% territory.
The challenge in Wellington is massive as we should expect the All Blacks to improve. They have now won 30 out of 30 home games since Steve Hansen took charge with 1040 points scored, 387 conceded. New Zealand have now scored 240 points and only conceded 31 points in the second half in their nine home games since the rugby world cup and only conceded three tries. Furthermore New Zealand have outscored opponents 289-98 in the final 20 minutes of those 30 home games (101-7 in the last 7). If the Lions aren’t leading with 20 minutes to go, forget it.
Some of the potential All Blacks improvement is already reflected in the market for Wellington. At Auckland the Lions went off 7/2 outright and +11 on the handicap. Here at the time of writing they are 5/1,11/2 in a place and +14.
The Lions have picked a team designed to compete better at the breakdown to slow down the All Blacks front foot ball. They will want to retain their attacking strike threat but be more accurate near the line and will recognise that they need to score 30 points plus to be in with a shot at winning the game. The All Blacks have scored 29 or more points in their last 11 games after all. Taking their chances is vital. It's a concern that the new 10-12 combination Sexton and Farrell have only played 50 minutes together all tour but its probably their best shot at scoring the number of points necessary. The All Blacks scored three tries in the first test with a malfunctioning lineout and two backs substituted in the first 34 minutes.
One thing the Lions though have been all tour is competitive in first halves. In their tour matches to date the Lions were 7-6 down in the opener, losing 12-10 to the Blues, drawing 10-10 against the Highlanders, and were 9-3, 12-10 and 13-6 up against the Crusaders, Maoris and the Chiefs respectively. In the first test they were 13-8 down. The All Blacks have led by 6-10 points at half time in 9 of their previous 12 games too. In top tier rugby with strong defences it is only when the tackle count rises and the benches empty in second halves that games open up.
A week ago 2/1+ was offered in several places about the All Blacks winning the first half by 1-7 points and that was to be my focus here, avoiding the overall points handicap and winning margin, steering clear of when the game opened up. Unfortunately at the time of writing only one firm (Paddy Power/Betfair sportsbook) has the first half winning margin market up at 15-8 New Zealand 1-7 points and 11-4 8-14 points so that rules me out putting (probably 1-7 points) a bet up.
In player markets many were shocked by the decision to axe the prolific Julian Savea for the first test but in 20-year-old Reiko Ioane the All Blacks have a real talent on their hands. He first shot to fame on the Sevens stage as a teenager and hasn’t looked back, shining for Auckland and the Blues before entering New Zealand’s squad. Ioane had seven runs for 86 metres, three clean breaks and two tries in his first test last week, and a long Test career awaits. He has great speed and in his two matches against the Lions this tour has left Nowell, Daly and Williams for dead in finishing opportunities.
For a team likely to be in the ascendancy, and creating opportunities out wide (Attacking Sexton and Farrell with Sonny Bill Williams' huge size advantage at the gain line strengthens this case) with the pace advantage Ioane has, an odds against the anytime try scorer price is attractive
10 points Reiko Ioane anytime try-scorer 11/10 William Hill, Skybet or BetVictor
Another Sporting Surprise
Pakistan won the 2017 ICC Champions trophy, 16-1 seventh favourites of eight teams. This was a result that confirmed the betting minefield that was a short format limited overs competition in English weather: Australia and South Africa didn’t make the knock out stages, Bangladesh did and Pakistan beat England then India to win it.
In their first match a fortnight before the final Pakistan were terrible. Seasoned pundits called it a shambles and the lowest ranked team in the tournament was written off with a lack of firepower up top, abject fielding and the spinners a teenage leggie and a little known player from Swansea.
After their opening loss they had to face up against the No. 1 team in ODI cricket South Africa in a virtual knockout game, and won. They were then seven wickets down against Sri Lanka and were essentially out of the competition and won. They had to play a semi-final against the favourites of the tournament, England, and beat them and then India in the final.
Before the final, some people were saying that the best hope for Pakistan was to make a game of it before India's inevitable triumph. That Pakistan then won by 180- runs to win a global 50-over title for the first time since 1992 is a big upset.
This is one of the greatest comebacks in the history of cricket. It wasn't a comeback in one game, or against one opponent, it was in four straight knockout games and completely unpredictable in a betting context for a famously unpredictable team often beset by off the field problems.
The bowling attack was led by Mohammad Amir, seven years on from being found guilty of spot fixing at Lords that saw him banned for five years and sent to prison. He took three huge wickets in the final, openers Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan and then Virat Kohli too.
Amir was world class at the age of 18. Now he is a bowler who will win many matches for Pakistan with pace, late swing and the maturity he lacked seven years ago. This is a great story for Pakistan cricket. Their problems are well-documented, but their list of achievements is impressive. They still cannot play international matches at home because of fears over security yet topped the test rankings a year ago and have since lost Misbah and Younus Khan to retirement and other players to fall-outs and exile and now have won a global 50 over tournament.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th June
The Road to Riches will now be on holiday until the weekend of 30th June- 1st July
Meanwhile….
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the UEFA Champions League final in Cardiff, Juventus v Real Madrid.
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom, Other Flat meetings at Doncaster, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Newcastle. Jumps meetings at Hexham and Worcester.
- Tennis, The middle weekend of the French Open at Roland Garros
- Golf, On the European tour the Nordea Masters in Sweden. On the USPGA the Memorial tournament at Muirfield Village.
- Cricket, the ICC Champions Trophy: On Saturday Sri Lanka v South Africa at the Oval. On Sunday India v Pakistan at Edgbaston
- Rugby Union, the start of the British Lions tour of New Zealand begins with a match against the Provincial Union XV..
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
All of Nigel's daily match write-ups with details of all the bets for the second half of the tournament
Royal Ascot (Full package) 20th-24th June by Neil Channing
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 20th - 24th June 2017 |
The full package includes all five days of Neil's analysis and write ups plus details of all the bets that we have.
Free Tip:
The Investec Derby Epsom 4.30pm Saturday 3rd June by Neil Channing.
This is an impossible Derby and I definitely wouldn't normally be rushing to have a bet.The thing that finally persuaded me is the Four places and even at 1/5th odds with some firms that is very fair in a race with 19 runners six of which are 50/1 and over.
I certainly don't want to bet Cracksman or Cliffs of Moher each-way as I really want to know my horse is going to stay and make that 4th place something worth having. I think they are both short enough anyway. I also can't have the once-raced Distant Thunder as he could easily be a star or useless but is less likely to be a steady placed horse. Capri seemed to fade in his trial and I'd have to wonder if he'll get home.
I think I'll pick from the five I have left on my shortlist but I'll start by getting it down to four and removing Eminent which was pretty disappointing in the Guineas and seems quite short here to me.
Venice Beech will definitely stay but could be a bit too slow for this. A tempting one with the four places and maybe if I bet two I'd add it especially if I get 1/4 1234.
Best Solution won the Lingfield Trail on softish ground and that was a fair step up in class. Could be the one but I'll pass over it as less solid than Venice Beech.
Permian has had a million runs and been beaten five times which is fairly usual for this trainer. He did win the "proper" trial at York but I'm not sure about a lot of that York form as the races were on watered ground that then got flooded by rain.
Rekindling finished 4th in the Dante when a shorter price than Permian and like I say I wasn't in love with the racing or the track that week. If he'd have run to the way the market expected versus Permian in that race he'd be quite short here. I'm going to say it wasn't such a bad run as he stayed on and he ought to get the trip here. I'll take a chance at a fair price with the extra place.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Rekindling at 25/1 1/4 1234 with Bet365, 28/1 1/5th 1234 with Paddy Power or 22/1 1/5th 12345 with Sky Bet
How can the Lions win in New Zealand?
Warren Gatland's 41-man British Lions squad will play 10 matches in New Zealand starting with the New Zealand Provincial Barbarians on Saturday with three games against the All Blacks starting on June 24th in Auckland.
Facing all five New Zealand Super Rugby franchises in the tour games as well as the tests, former New Zealand coach has described it as ‘The most difficult tour in the history of the game”
The task the Lions face got tougher a week ago when the world class Number Eight Billy Vunipola withdrew through injury and he was one of the first names likely to be penciled into the test XV, not only for his own ball carrying abilities but for his strengths in matching up with All Black captain and number Eight the brilliant Kieran Reed.
That said this is probably the strongest Lions team since the brilliant 1971 and 1974 teams and Gatland has got a hugely competitive 41 players, despite having few injuries already. The problem is that New Zealand are likely even better than in 2015 when they won the Rugby World Cup, having spent 2016 rebuilding after the loss of McCaw and Carter to international retirement. As evidenced in Super Rugby their franchises have gone to another level and are miles above any team in South Africa and Australia.
There are a number of players who are in the best form of their careers, notably with all the flicks, feints and steps boasted by an All Blacks backline that offers the sumptuous skills of Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith and Sonny Bill Williams.
So how might the Lions look to beat them?
1. Owen Farrell's goal-kicking will be key to the Lions' hopes in New Zealand. Out of all the British Lions touring party Farrell would be the possibly the biggest loss, for his attitude and hardness as well as his playing skills.
2 Tadhg Furlong and Jack McGrath gave the New Zealand front-row a torrid time in Chicago and Dublin, and if the Lions unpick the lineout with Maro Itoje and George Kruis, the Lions could well prosper in the set-piece and tight exchanges. If there are injuries to Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, the All Black lock pool isn’t that deep.
Plan A will centre around dominating the set-piece which should be very strong.. They will play for field position, try to keep the All Blacks away from front foot ball in the final third and back to point 1 look to kick their goals
3 Surprise names in the touring party were Jared Payne, Ross Moriarty and Ben Te’o. They all have something in common, which is a hugely physical element to their game in attack and defence, indicating that the direct approach is likely, through the middle again with the aim of keeping the All Blacks on the back foot.
4 The Lions coaching staff will have thought long and hard on how to nullify the All Blacks outside the 15m channel where Kieran Read and the back tree are absolutely fantastic in wide areas. Add to that Beauden Barrett peppering the wide-channels with perfectly executed kicks and defence in general and the Lions’ back three positioning and alertness to the high-ball in particular will have to be precise. There were nine backs selected who have played at No 15 in their career.
All of these points point to “Warrenball” the term coined for Gatland’s coaching style that we have seen with Wales over the years. All Blacks coach Steve Hansen said in a recent press conference
“He likes his big ball carriers in the middle of the park and his big, grunty forwards so that’s what he’s picked.”
Last week Edie Jones expressed skepticism that this approach would work
“They have picked a certain style of team based on the influence of the Welsh coaches. So I think they are looking to attack like Wales with big, gain-line runners with not much ball movement. I think you struggle to beat the All Blacks like that."
New Zealand are double world champions, they have two Tests in Auckland where they have not lost since 1994 (when they lost 23-20 to France) and rightly are overwhelming favourites to win the series.
The Lions could come back having lost the Test series 2-1, win all the midweek games and if so should be seen as a very good side, better than the team who won a series in Australia in 2013 in all likelihood. Winning a test and all the franchise matches is far from a given though.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup final between Arsenal and Chelsea, the Championship Play-Off final between Huddersfield Town and Reading and the League Two play off final between Blackpool and Exeter City.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock, Salisbury and York. Jumps meetings at Cartmel and Ffos Las.
- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Lyon and Geneva in the run up to the French Open
- Golf, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. On the USPGA the Dean and Deluca Invitational at Colonial
- Cricket, the second ODI between England and South Africa at Southampton on Saturday ahead of the start of the ICC Champions Trophy
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership play off final: Exeter v Wasps.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Nigel’s outright market analysis was published today and all of Nigel's match write-ups with details of all the bets will be daily from Sunday.
Royal Ascot (Full package) 20th-24th June by Neil Channing
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 20th - 24th June 2017 |
The full package includes all five days of Neil's analysis and write ups plus details of all the bets that we have.
Free Tip:
The ICC Champions Trophy
The 2017 ICC Champions Trophy is an ODI tournament held here in the first half of June The top eight teams in the ICC ODI rankings as on 30 September 2015 qualified for the tournament and are divided into two groups of four.
Bangladesh replaced the West Indies who finished outside the top eight in the ICC ODI Team Rankings on the cut-off date and return to the competition for the first first time since 2006.
The two groups of four are as follows
A Australia,Bangladesh,England,New Zealand
B India,Pakistan,South Africa,Sri Lanka
Each team plays three games and the top two teams from each group progress to the semi-finals. Matches are played in London at the Oval, Cardiff and Edgbaston.
The Champions trophy is often seen as an understudy to the World Cup. Regulation changes have made the 50 over game higher scoring and the format has moved towards T20 rather than as a short form of the longer game as previously. Big runs, close games and few dead rubbers because of the short tournament all highlight its attraction with six of the sides having a realistic chance of winning.
South Africa (ICC ODI Rank 1)
Ranked No.1 in the world and have won their last four series. They have a solid top six. Hashim Amla came back to form in the IPL and scored two centuries. AB De Villiers was in poor form at the IPL but is one of the best players in this format. Quinton de Kock and JP Duminy return from injury while Faf du Plessis' and David Miller were on IPL benches so this vaunted top six has something to prove.
In the bowling department, South Africa have picked four all-rounders to accompany the two frontline quicks, Morkel and Rabada, The loss of a number of players to Kolpak contracts has reduced their strength in depth beyond the first XI though
De Kock and Rabada in particular are developing into world class cricketers and could be amongst the stars of the English summer with a Test tour to follow the Champions trophy
Australia (ICC ODI Rank 2)
The world champions come into the tournament as one of the front-runners.Steve Smith, David Warner, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, James Pattinson and Josh Hazlewood are those players at or near their peak and barring Warner, all of these players are under 30. Whilst the batting has over-relied on Warner and Smith the presence of Chris Lynn, a huge hit in the shorter format in the last year, provides an x-factor but it is the fierce fast bowling quartet in early season English conditions that should give them a good shot.
One caveat, coach Darren Lehmann believes the on-going pay dispute between Australia's cricketing authorities and the players "will be a distraction".
India (ICC ODI Rank 3)
India were the last nation to name their 15-man squad and will be the last team to arrive in England after the completion of the IPL giving the side10 days to acclimatise to very different conditions and getting confidence early is crucial as they struggled on their last tour here against the moving red ball, Kohli notably.
Obviously a hugely talented and very experienced side, look out for the emerging fast bowler Jasprit Bumrah who was one of the stars of the IPL.
New Zealand (ICC ODI Rank 4)
New Zealand’s preparation looks ideal: a tri-series against Bangladesh and Ireland in Ireland mimics English conditions to a tee.
A resolutely unfashionable side to laymen, they are led by Kane Williamson, one of the best batsmen in the world in all formats. Corey Anderson, on his day, is one of the best limited over all-rounders and the bowling attack is extremely competitive especially if the white Kookaburra ball swings. Trent Boult was the equal leading wicket-taker in the 2015 Cricket World Cup. New Zealand are a well-drilled one-day team and should be a real handful.
England (ICC ODI Rank 5)
For England there is a far more modern and aggressive approach in this format, a now settled side and they have one of the deepest and most powerful batting line ups in world cricket. At the time of writing they have just won their seventh ODI in succession
Of course this series is being played in English conditions and good swing bowlers like Willey and Woakes complemented by the likes of Wood, Plunkett and Ball might be able to offset England’s achilles heel which has been restricting opposition on good batting pitches because of the absence of an “gun” bowler. In any case the format favours the batsmen so much nowadays that the onus is on England’s line up to hit big totals whether compiling or chasing a total.
England at home have attracted a lot of money and are favourites.
Sri Lanka (ICC ODI Rank 6)
Angelo Mathews' leads an inexperienced side with the notable exception of Lasith Malinga who is set to play his first ODI since November 2015. Kusal Mendis is Sri Lanka’s in-form batsman, the leading run-scorer in the three-match ODI series against Bangladesh in March. At only 22, Mendis toured England 12 months ago which should help offset the inexperience.
One of the outsiders of the eight teams, so many young players and reliance on a few key players will most probably count against them.
Bangladesh. (ICC ODI Rank 7)
Bangladesh are ahead of both the West Indies and Pakistan in the rankings and are well placed for 2019 World Cup qualification and are a dangerous side, more competitive than ever.
Shakib al Hasan is the No.1 all-rounder in Test, ODI and T20 cricket and is the focal point of this team. Mustafizur Rahman is a serious player and they have dangerous batsmen and workmanlike bowlers who obviously would be favoured by conditions other than England in June but still capable of producing results.
A good win over New Zealand in the Irish warm up games spoke to their ability as a dangerous wild card in the tournament.
Pakistan (ICC ODI Rank 8)
Pakistan lost an ODI series 4-1 in Australia in January then beat the West Idies 2-1 last month. The international retirements of veterans Misbah-ul-Haq and Younis Khan is the end of one era of Pakistan cricket Azhar Ali had been the ODI skipper but now the reins belong to enterprising wicketkeeper-batsman Sarfraz Ahmed. Pakistan can play with aggression, flare and occasional brilliance but consistency is a problem. Likely to be “up” for the India group game above all others, but not likely to be at the business end of this tournament
Odds at best prices are:
England 11/4
Australia 3/1
South Africa 4/1
India 5/1
New Zealand 9/1
Pakistan 16/1
Sri Lanka 33/1
Bangladesh 50/1
Each way odds at some firms are 1/3 1, 2.
In a tournament where you can make a case for possibly six of the eight participants we find the two favourites in the same group at cramped odds. South Africa and India look to have a slightly easier route through to the semi-finals. However neither are the value that New Zealand represent. It’s not unusual for New Zealand to represent value at this stage ahead of major cricket events and then outperform their odds as they did when runners up in the 2015 world cup (and semi finals of the last T20 World cup and final of the Champions trophy two tournaments ago) .
I give them a reasonable chance of getting through a short format group where variance can be higher than the longer format world cup. For example weather may play a part, or winning/losing an important toss and with only three games each in the group these factors can playa big parting who qualifies.
Beat one of the big two and they are in the hunt and at that stage are a one off game away from an each way return. As an alternative to the “big four” in the market the value is clear.
8 points each way New Zealand ICC Champions Trophy 9/1* each way Betfred or William Hill 1/3 1, 2
*Please note SportingBet are 12/1, but we won’t record that in our records as it is one firm and an outlier price that might not be around for long.
Ashes to Ashes?
Australian cricketers are prepared to strike if a contract dispute is not resolved, which could have an impact on the Ashes at the end of the year. In March, Cricket Australia proposed salary increases but this would mean players no longer receive a percentage of CA's revenue. The offer was rejected and CA said it would not pay players after 30 June.
The players want to keep the current model where around a quarter of the sport's total revenue gets paid to them at every level from the State game up to the women's and men's international teams. Cricket Australia, despite soaring income especially from the Big Bash, have offered pay increases but want to fix the total amount they share out.
The outspoken opening batsman David Warner has been leading the fight for the players and said "We want a fair share and the revenue-sharing model is what we want, so we are going to stick together until we get that. We are not going to shy away; we are just going to stick together."
If the dispute is not resolved, there would be uncertainty over what team Australia could field after 30 June, with a two-Test series scheduled in August in Bangladesh before a home Ashes showdown with England, which runs from 23 November 2017 to 8 January 2018.
The Australians are currently odds on favourites to regain the Ashes, won by Alistair Cook's team in 2015, this winter in a home series
To the relief of Cricket Australia, there isn’t another Kerry Packer hovering in the wings to set up a rival series as there was in the late 70s when player power hit cricket for the first time. However the proliferation of T20 leagues offering freelance employment to the best cricketers in the world is a complication for any governing body these days and these offer both international and domestic players plenty of opportunities to play T20 matches elsewhere if CA maintains its hard-line stance.
A template for this has been established with Kevin Pietersen who after his forced exile from the England test team has played for T20 sides in the IPL, the Big Bash, the T20Blast in England, the South African Ram Slam, the Pakistan Super League and Caribbean Premier league.
The Caribbean Premier League and the English T20 Blast loom as possible platforms for Australian players to bide their time in the second half of the year. Under normal circumstances, CA must provide no-objection certificates for players to take part in overseas T20 leagues, but pushing players out of contract would open up the market in unprecedented fashion - not only in terms of competitions, but also the commercial and sponsorship rights of players
Meanwhile the players association has reiterated a preference for the joint appointment of an independent mediator to help resolve the present stand-off. Eventually of course a compromise and an agreement is likely
In the short term, the ICC Champions trophy is imminent, and all eyes are on the Australian team’s attitude and motivation during that.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
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The Road to Riches weekend of 21st-22nd May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the final weekend of the Premier League, with the final place in the top 4 still undecided and the League One Play-Off final between Bradford City and Scunthorpe United.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk. Jumps fixtures at Bangor and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, ATP and WTA Rome
- Golf, on the US Tour the AT&T Byron Nelson in Dallas and on the European Tour the Rocco Forte Open in Italy
- Cricket, the IPL 2017 final in Hyderabad on Sunday, Rising Pune Supergiants v Mumbai Indians .
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership play off semi finals: Exeter v Saracens and Wasps v Leicester.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes outright market analysis and all of Nigel's match write-ups with details of all the bets.
Royal Ascot (Full package) 20th-24th June by Neil Channing
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 20th - 24th June 2017 |
The full package includes all five days of Neil's analysis and write ups plus details of all the bets that we have.
Free Tip:
Aviva Premiership semi-final Saturday 20 May Exeter Chiefs v Saracens (2.45pm);
After Saracens’ victory over Clermont to retain the European Rugby Champions Cup their quest to win the “double double” and retain the Aviva Premiership trophy, a feat not achieved since the great Leicester side of 2001-02, takes them to the South West this weekend.
Saracens have achieved their prime objective. There is just a chance of a small dip in their determination and focus after their win. If that happens, Exeter, with their ability to keep the ball and test Saracens patience in defence could be the side to stop them.
Home advantage helps too. A fortnight ago Saracens picked a weakened team for the last league game of the season at Wasps with play off positions up for grabs and accepted the consequences of losing. The gamble worked in Europe, which has clearly been their priority in a crowded schedule all season
It is strange that the showpiece ERCC final did not end the Northern Hemisphere season and it puts Saracens in an awkward spot with six of the team only three weeks away from the first game of the British Lions Tour of New Zealand. Preparation time for this trip to Exeter is limited and they have to get motivated again in between the massive games for any rugby players’ career that European finals and Lions tours represent.
Exeter recorded an eighth successive bonus-point win a fortnight ago against Gloucester and having finished level with Wasps on 84 points, they have had an extra week to rest and allow key men to regain fitness before meeting the side who beat them 28-20 in the Aviva final at Twickenham last year
Exeter have since improved markedly, outscoring Saracens by 20 tries over 22 games, and Rob Baxter, the Chiefs’ director of rugby, believes they are stronger mentally than 12 months ago, better prepared because they’ve been there before and they were the only side this season not to lose at Saracens drawing 13-13 in January. They have a considerable home advantage in the south west with a passionate crowd and won’t lose anything in the battles up front as they are a rugged team.
It’s not surprising to see Saracens favourites in the markets, best priced 1-2. Exeter as long as 7/4 and 5 point handicap underdogs is interesting for this situational spot though.
I give Exeter a real shot and think 7/4 is too long.
8 Points Exeter Chiefs to beat Saracens 7/4 Bet365 or Betfred.
Luck of the draw
With the British Lions only a couple of weeks away from their tough tour of New Zealand, which features a ridiculous schedule with matches against all five of the New Zealand Super18 franchises as well as three tests, these franchises are on the verge of a first in the Super18.
They have won all 17 games against Australian opposition so far this season. With only eight trans-Tasman contests remaining it is probable that the Australian teams will go the entire regular season without winning a single game against a New Zealand side.
Australian rugby is at a low ebb. Four years ago the last British Lions won a series there 2-1, thrashing the hosts 41-16 in the final test. Last summer England beat Australia down under 3-0. In between they reached the world cup final at Twickenham, helped by a fortunate draw in the knock out stages, but that papered over the cracks of a domestic game that has suffered from a drain of talent to the northern hemisphere and the salary riches on offer here.
Australian rugby’s decline has been coming for more than a decade and has its origins in the 1998-2004 period when the national side was the dominant team in Test rugby. Under coach Rod Macqueen the national side played a patterned style of rugby in which the field was divided into imaginary grids and players were programmed to perform tasks according to where they were positioned on the pitch.
This gave the Australian teams a tactical advantage for a while because players knew exactly what to do wherever they were on the field where for other sides rugby, blinking into the light of a new professional era, was predominantly an unstructured game. In due course opponents caught up but Australian rugby has often remained “rugby by numbers”.
Meanwhile the All Blacks and New Zealand franchises went in a completely different direction. They realised the most important factor was to turnover the ball and win possession in open play. Their five Super Rugby sides all focus on attacking from turnover ball and counter-attack when defences are not set.
This tactical shift by the New Zealanders was a response to Australia’s dominance in the Macqueen era. Macqueen recruited former rugby league internationals to coach the Wallabies’ defence and they were almost impossible to break down, conceding only one try in winning the 1999 World Cup.
The Wallabies’ rugby league-style defence worked well in structured play but was not as effective in broken play. Unlike league, union sees contests for possession which means the ball changes hands regularly. New Zealanders began to attack more and more from turnover ball.
There is a view that lack of depth is Australia’s major problem, particularly after the expansion to five Super Rugby teams, which is being reversed with one team folding at the end of this season as Super Rugby re-organises for next year. The Western Force and Rebels are the two Australian teams in the firing line after SANZAAR revealed last month that two South African and one Australian franchise will be axed from the competition.
A lot of good players are overseas too but Australian rugby also currently falls behind in a couple of areas notably coaching and the absence of effective high performance programmes to get young talent into senior teams quicker. In New Zealand a high performance programme is centralised and the off-loading in the tackle and conditioning of players is given top priority. In Australia high performance has too often been a political football, with each franchise following its own path.
Meanwhile this British Lions touring party has drawn the short straw, playing five franchises which would probably beat a good number of International sides. The side of four years ago in Australia and four years time in South Africa had/have far easier propositions.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
