Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester United.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford. All weather racing at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- NFL, Week Fifteen of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union: the fourth round of European Rugby Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf, the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.
- Cricket, the 2018-19 Big Bash starts in Australia next week
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NFL Week 15 Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Saturday 8.20pm
With three weeks of the regular season to go both of these teams are on the fringes of the race for the final play-off berth in the AFC. The Browns beat the Panthers last weekend to get to a 5-7-1, and most likely need to win out to stand a chance of reaching the post-season.
The Broncos have a 6-7 record having surprise loss in San Francisco meaning it,s now or never for them too starting this weekend.
The Broncos strengths are on defense (Chubb for example has 12 sacks and is on course to beat the rookie record) and in areas of their running game. This is just as well as since their coaching changes in week 9 the Browns lead the NFL in yards per play and have converted 14 of 14 red zone opportunities for touchdowns, admittedly against a string of poor run defences, which the Broncos aren’t.
It has to be said that the Bronocos coaching is at times risible. On November 17th head coach Vance Joseph said the Broncos needed to “start their games faster”. At that time they were the number three offense in the NFL in first quarter scoring. Since that comment they have played four first quarters and scored three points.
What is odd is that in undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay they have one of the most dynamic young players in the NFL on an offense that isn’t that exciting. Lindsay needed just 63 yards rushing to reach 1,000 yards for the season last week and seemed all but certain he’d get that against the lowly 49ers. However his unlikely journey from undrafted free agent to a legitimate NFL offensive rookie of the year candidate hit a road-block in the 20-14 Denver defeat, with Lindsay recording 14 carries for just 30 yards.
Heading into that game he led the NFL with 6.1 yards per carry in addition to ranking fifth in rushing yards (937) and rushing touchdowns (five). Lindsay added to his scoring total with a 3-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter in San Francisco but after posting single gains of 65, 14 and 11 yards in the victory the week before at Cincinnati, the 49ers limited Lindsay’s longest rush to only 5 yards. His now 9 touchdowns are though tied for sixth in the league.
Lindsay has posted over 7 yards per carry on double-digit carries in three straight games, the longest such streak for a running back since 2007. He is averaging 111 yards from scrimmage on 17 touches per game over his past six games. The only real blemish is that the Broncos have yet to involve him in the passing game given his speed in the open field and the fact that he caught 117 passes over his collegiate career.
The Browns have conceded over 410 yards per game this season, second worst in the NFL, rank 24th of 32 overall and 28th against the run. This has to be the time for the Broncos game plan to feature their most dynamic player and try to get out to a lead. Or it would be if you assumed rational coaching!
Lindsay can score from a long way out, which gives any touchdown bets another string to their bows, we aren’t just relying on red zone and goal line plays
8 points Phillip Lindsay First Touchdown scorer 4/1 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 4.8 Betfair 7/2 Skybet
Golden Bears?
Fortunes can change in the NFL quickly, with the draft and free agency all allowing struggling teams to re-tool quickly, and with the right coaching go from also rans one season to challengers the next. In the NFC North this season we are seeing a textbook example of this with the Chicago Bears who are following their 5-11 season record in 2017 with currently an 9-4 record and the number three seed in the NFC play-offs if they started tomorrow. This resurgence was capped last weekend with a suffocating 15-6 victory over the Rams(who were previously averaging 35 points a game) featuring defense and real offensive innovation such as a touchdown with no running backs, receivers and Tight End’s on the field, a defensive tackle running play action and an offensive tackle receiving the scoring pass.
While Chicago now has an innovative young coach in Matt Nagy and has also drafted well (taking their opportunity to draft a young quarterback high while they could) and used free agency too, it is the veteran trade market that has really helped accelerate their recovery and particularly the late pre-season acquisition of the superstar defensive end Khalil Mack from the Raiders.
The deal came at a heavy cost, two first round picks, but with many of the young pieces for the Bears roster already drafted it could certainly be argued that the addition of someone like Mack could help send the franchise into contention now, without too much cost in the next couple of years where the Bears wouldn’t want to draft in too many of the impact positions anyway.
Mack has been a real difference on a defense that was already a strength of the team. Every member of Chicago’s secondary is having the best season of his career. As offenses double team Mack in an effort to keep him away from the quarterback, the remaining members of the Bears’ front four have seen one-on-one opportunities they otherwise wouldn’t have.
In terms of roster construction the question that we will only know the answer to in January is whether this will ultimately matter. The logical comparison for these Bears is the 2017 Jaguars. Both teams featured great defense and issues at quarterback. This Bears offense is though considerably better than the Blake Bortles led Jags was in 2017, and the Jags gave the Patriots a good run in the AFC Conference game. Trubisky at quarterback has started 22 NFL games and 10 under Nagy and its an issue of inexperience rather than inability that at times makes the offense inconsistent. He does though bring an ability to run the ball too.
Quarterbacks aside, what sets this year’s Bears and the 2017 Jaguars apart is the rest of the offense. Armed with a varied collection of pass-catchers, head coach Matt Nagy can scheme to create mis-matches
As mentioned recently the sport has undergone a shift. Eleven quarterbacks are on pace to throw at least 35 touchdown passes this year. The NFL record for total points in a single season is certain to be shattered. Against an offensive juggernaut like the Saints or Rams Chicago’s defensive prowess could all be for naught. As the league’s points explosion takes hold, a divisional-round playoff game might be a race to 30, whether Mack is on the field or not. Like the Bears, both L.A. and New Orleans have weaknesses. If the Bears do make the playoffs and get their shot at taking on the NFC’s best, it will set up as a true test of whether a great defense can be relevant in the modern NFL. For now though the Mack trade has given them that shot.
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester City.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- NFL, Week Fourteen of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union: the third round of European Rugby Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf, on the USPGA The QBE Shootout and on the European Tour the South African Open.
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
Starts next week!
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup: Racing 92 v Leicester (Pool 4 Sunday 3.15pm)
After the break for the Autumn International season the ERCC returns for the third round of pool matches taking place over this coming weekend
In Pool 4 Racing have won 2 out of 2 and at this very early stage are notional number one seed for the quarter-finals. Finalists last year they are a well-rounded side, able to compete up front but attack from anywhere and this is especially the case on their fast track indoors at their new Paris stadium. So far they are the top try scorers in the competition.
This is a match up that should play into their hands as Leicester are struggling defensively. They go into the game on the back of six straight defeats and have conceded 40 points or more in four of their nine games this season, a weakness that did for coach Matt O’Connor who was sacked after the first game of the season and hasn’t been fixed under interim coach Geordan Murphy.
In an era where defensive patterns are drilled relentlessly with specialist coaches and games often take on “rugby league” style phase attacks Leicester are far too easy to break through and their games are often far more unstructured than is the norm in the modern game. This is down to two factors. Although when at full strength Leicester can field dangerous players in Youngs, Ford, Tuilagi and May the strictures of the salary cap prevent much strength in depth in key areas like the back row, which is cumbersome and Leicester are often vulnerable out wide. This is exactly where Racing are strong
Not only do I expect Racing to win but I expect them to do so comfortably racking up points along the way. The bands in the winning margin tighten up away from the standard 0-10,11-20 type margins that are typical when we are looking at the possibility of close matches. Here I expect Racing to win by three scores plus. I am going to split stakes and dutch the following
6 points Racing92 to win by 21-25 points 6-1 Skybet 9-2 William Hill and Bet Victor
6 points Racing92 to win by 26-30 points 8-1 Skybet 6-1 BetVictor 11-2 William Hill
Whitewash
One winter cricket tour down and one 3-0 victory achieved, everything was looking rosy for England in Sri Lanka recently. After Christmas a tour of the West Indies follows ahead of a big summer in 2019 with the home Ashes Series and World Cup on the schedule.
Admittedly the Sri Lankans were a poor imitation of recent sides. Shorn of their previous generation of star players through retirement they are in the very early stages of a rebuilding process and undoubtedly this is currently the easiest sub-continental tour but nevertheless in key areas England could take much from the series
- Post Alistair Cook, Jennings especially and Burns showed potential as an opening partnership
- England’s spinners out-bowled their home counter-parts
- Bairstow once restored to the team made runs at number 3, a position England have struggled at for ages
- Foakes, England’s best technical wicket-keeper, finally got in the side and made the most of his opportunity
Whilst the West Indies tour will see England favourites again of course none of this is to say that the achievements in Sri Lanka are that applicable to what they will face next summer. It will be swinging and there will be world class fast bowling from Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins.
Against bowling of that quality the biggest questions are unanswered: do we have opening batsmen and a No 3 to help us compile match-winning scores? We know numbers 4-7 and our depth in all-rounders and seam bowling make us a dangerous side, but when before this winter the batting line up has us 50-3 or worse in 50% of the test matches over the last twenty tests its clear where the issue lies.
Keaton Jennings has made two fine centuries in the subcontinent but against the new ball he still looked bereft last summer. Burns has made county cricket runs for five years but county cricket doesn’t offer genuine pace. Is Bairstow a number three on English pitches?
Those questions remain unanswered but what was encouraging was the style that England played in. Batsmen played positively with lots of sweeps and reverse-sweeps not allowing the spinners to tie them down. For example Root’s century in Pallakelle, his fifteenth at Test level, saw him leave the lowest proportion of deliveries, choosing not to play at just 2% of his balls faced. Only two of the previous fourteen centuries more attacking shots. The pre-tour talk of aggression and positive intent was put into practice. A more aggressive approach makes sense as they regular collapse, and their top six has among the lowest averages in world cricket, so there was a need to try something different.
In Sri Lanka, England's batsmen achieved a collective strike-rate of 58.9 runs per 100 balls. Looking at England's series over the past 40 years this was their highest batting strike-rate in any overseas series, their seventh highest overall, and their highest in a series anywhere since 2011.
A batting line-up with the depth of England’s can afford to take extra risks, to try and play at a higher tempo, because there is a far greater quantity of players capable of playing match-winning innings. England’s relatively unique player pool means that their No.9 has 10 first-class hundreds, and their No.8 has a Test batting average of 37.77.
The true implication and context of England's recent successes will only be revealed after we have seen what happens over the next couple of years, as the quality of opposition improves. Starting with Australia next summer.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Everton and Arsenal v Tottenham.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- NFL, Week Thirteen of the 2018 Season
- Golf, on the USPGA The Hero World Tour in the Bahamas and on the European Tour the Australian PGA and Mauritius Open.
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (6pm Sunday)
In this week 13 match up the Atlanta Falcons have a 4-7 record in a season blighted by defensive injuries, the result of which is that they have conceded the fifth most points in the league through 12 weeks. Atlanta is allowing 6.3 yards per play (30th) this season.
The Ravens travel to Georgia with a 6-5 record at a minimum in the hunt for a wild card play-off spot and off the back of consecutive wins. Two weeks ago the rather pedestrian starting quarterback Joe Flacco suffered a hip injury and this lead to the introduction of Heisman trophy winning dual purpose (he runs, he passes) quarterback Lamar Jackson into the side.
In his first two NFL starts Jackson had 192 rushing yards, the most by any QB in those first two starts, Why this should be makes sense a) he is a talented runner b) the Ravens wouldn’t want to emphasise the passing game with an inexperienced quarterback. In the first game he had 26 rushing attempts the most by any NFL QB since 1950
At the same time the Ravens have changed running back starter with Alex Collins injured to the undrafted rookie Gus Edwards. Edwards who is a “north and south” straight ahead runner, unlike Collins who is more of a elusive type but not as powerful has had figures of 17 (attempts)-115 (yards)-1 (touchdowns) and 23-118-0 in the two games, admittedly against the Bengals and Raiders but nevertheless and impressive start.
The pair have completely changed the dynamic of the Ravens offense as they have diverged tremendously from what they were doing with Flacco under center. Baltimore shifted from a high-volume passing attack to a heavily run-centric one without skipping a beat. Through 10 weeks, no team attempted more passes than the Ravens (43.4 per game), who carried the third-lowest run rate (35%) in the league. In the last two weeks, the Ravens ran on 74 percent of their situation-neutral snaps.
What has undoubtedly helped such a quick transformation is that the offensive co-ordinator and the quarterback coach worked with Michael Vick in 2009 and Colin Kaepernick in 2012-13 respectively
Now that the Ravens have confirmed that Jackson will start again on Sunday, with their weakened defense the Falcons will have to “pick their poison” against Jackson and Edwards, with the Baltimore game plan likely to feature the run and ball control again, in part to keep Ryan, Julio and the rest off the field on a quick track inside a dome. As there is only two weeks of Ravens/Jackson film for the Atlanta defense to game plan with and enough wrinkles in the scheme to retain the element of surprise, this could be an opportunity that persists for a few weeks yet for the Ravens
Of course the Bengals and Raiders are two top notch match ups for offenses. Interestingly though the Ravens only had nine offensive possessions last week, as their defense scored two touchdowns. Assuming their volume of Ravens offensive plays normalises, Atlanta have allowed the seventh most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and three rushing touchdowns to the position.
Edwards has been dealing with a knee injury this week so lets opt for Jackson in the first and anytime touchdown scorer markets
5 points Lamar Jackson first touchdown scorer 8-1 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
15 points Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer 11-10 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
More firms will be up in the 24 hours before the game.
What do points make?
Writing a week after the third highest scoring NFL game in history, the 54-51 Rams/Chiefs Monday night football extravaganza (the highest ever Monday night game and there have been 773 of them), it was perhaps inevitable that there would be a rush of proclamations that the future of the NFL is here now. That game had an over/under of 64 points, which of course was smashed.
That the game is geared more towards offense is obvious from watching and it is exactly what the NFL wants:
For example
Most Total Points Through 11 Weeks – NFL History
2018 7,791
2013 7,581
2016 7,390
Most Total Touchdowns Through 11 Weeks – NFL History
2018 895
2013 844
2014 836
Most viewers people love the increased level of offensive innovation, forward thinkers, aggressive play-callers and, most importantly, entertainment value that this season is providing but it’s not by accident. Several factors have converged to make it happen.
Firstly the NFL is aware that the media for viewing its games is changing and wants entertainment That Chiefs-Rams games was also the third most watched MNF ever
Increased awareness of player safety issues has led to changes in rules that mean that long gone are the days when defences could effectively pummel quarterbacks and manhandle receivers in the act of catching the football. It’s a game geared more to offensive production as a result
The rule changes are not just for safety though there is an NFL management acceptance of the revenue growth avenues from fantasy football and especially legalising sportsbooks and the public craves action, points and loves the over!
Finally College football is an open game with spread offenses and the NFL and the players emerging from those systems is adopting some of that thinking.
In these changes the NFL has a happy coincidence, there is a brand new crop of young quarterbacks such as Mahomes and Goff emerging while all-time greats such as the New Orleans Saints’ Drew Brees continue to perform exceptionally, to benefit from the changes that boost offensive production.
In due course, the NFL being a cyclical game, defensive thinking will catch up and the game will move to a steadier state again but for now it’s a game of scoring, offensive thinking and for now defenses are doing about the only thing that can be in today’s NFL: try to generate turnovers and points of their own, even while giving up big yards and points.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24-25th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v CheIsea.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- NFL, Week Twelve of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals conclude including England v Australia and Wales v South Africa
- Cricket, the third Test between Sri Lanka and England concludes in Colombo
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Golf, the Melbourne World Cup of Golf and the Hong Kong Open.
- Tennis, the Davis Cup final, France v Croatia in Lille
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip
Rugby Union Wales v South Africa (Saturday 6.20pm)
Wales finally beat Australia a fortnight ago in a dour match and end their Autumn season with a tough prospect, the rugged South Africans who lost by a point at Twickenham partly through not getting the rub of the green but mainly because they failed to take many opportunities in the first half. Since then they've gone to Paris and won by three points and Edinburgh and won by six and are emerging as genuine World Cup contenders after a year in which they beat New Zealand away and almost them beat them at home.
Wales too will have designs on a deep run in Japan and have more depth than for many years across the back line and in the back row but its areas of the tight five where i think they lack some world class, Alun Wyn-Jones apart. That is a real South African strength and as a result I am struggling with Wales as short as 4/6 outright to win this match. South Africa is another challenge entirely compared to the current Australian side and I like the visitors here to win at over even money (23/20 William Hill best) in what should be a close game. What may make a difference is the absence of the metronomic Welsh kicker Leigh Halfpenny. With Biggar on the bench the goal-kicking will fall to the less experienced Anscombe.
10 points South Africa to win by 1-12 points 3.1 Betfair, 21/10 BetfairSportsbook 2/1 SkyBet,PaddyPower 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral
Anyone can beat anyone?
As suggestions of a breakaway European Super League come to the fore again, this is against a background that what is now considered the Premier League's 'big six' are pulling further and further away from the 'other 14'.
With the current top three - Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool - all still unbeaten after 12 matches, plus Tottenham and Arsenal within touching distance, it is only Manchester United with four defeats this season that are breaking up the increasing dominance that was only temporarily broken in 2015-16 when four of the above sides all under-performed and helped create the conditions for a surprise league winner.
The statistics, admittedly on a small sample size, certainly suggest that the Premier League is the least competitive it has been for some time, with instances of those 14 beating the six fewer and farther between.
Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool have a combined points total of 90 so far and have won 27 of 36 games. With the exception of United all of the big six have increased their average points return against the other 14 this season.
The first reason for this is one of resource. Just taking one example Leicester’s £262 million transfer expenditure over the past three seasons looks eye-watering for a club of their size, but it is only £82 million net. Manchester United’s over the same period is just under £400 million (or £330 million net). The difference in wage bills remains huge.
Meanwhile, a far cry from several years ago when several managerial situations in the top six were sub-optimal, the coaching situations at many of the top clubs are more stable and the approach has changed. Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp do have better players but they’re also very well coached. Everyone can see how good Manchester City are on the ball, sometimes 70-80% of possession, but it’s also the amount of work they put in on the defensive side to make sure that when they lose the ball, a) they try to win it back as quickly as possible, high up the pitch and b) they close down those spaces to stop you hitting them on the counterattack. They execute the trend to high press well.
Of course, there is a long way to go but the early evidence certainly points to a league that is becoming less competitive all the time; of a widening gulf favouring those who compete in Europe and accumulate cash to spend on the best players from around the world.
Unfortunately, as the debate over a breakaway European Super League sparks up again, it is rarely the case that any team can beat any other on any given weekend. Only two non top six sides have won at the top six in 2018. Bournemouth at Chelsea and WBA at Manchester United, with none so far this season. It feels as if competitive balance, supposedly the Premier League’s unique selling point within European football leagues, is in alarmingly short supply.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the International break including England v Croatia on Sunday.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- NFL, Week Eleven of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue including England v Japan, Scotland v South Africa and Ireland v New Zealand
- Cricket, the second Test between Sri Lanka and England concludes in Kandy
- Golf, the DP World Championship in Dubai.
- Tennis, the ATP finals conclude in London
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 14th - Jan 1st 2019)
By Nigel Seeley Cost is £50 Sign up here
Free tip
The BetVictor Gold Cup (Saturday Cheltenham 2.25pm) by Neil Channing
The Mackeson is one of the highlights of the National Hunt season, not least because people seem keen to take bets on it, we have "just" twenty runners and some firms still offer the excellent 1/4 1234 terms for each-way bets while Bet365 offer an amazing 1/4 12345.
More than a Feeling
After winning 108 regular-season games, the Boston Red Sox easily disposed of the Yankees and last season’s champions the Astros in the American League play-offs, and the Dodgers in the World Series on the way to its fourth title in the last two decades and 14 years since the first of those which ended an 86 year drought.
For the season overall it was a dominant performance. Since 1969, when each league added a championship series, the 114-win 1998 Yankees are the only team to win a World Series and more regular-season games than Boston did this year. The Red Sox in the play offs won 11 of 14 games against three superstar. No team in the last decade has won the title with so few playoff losses.
With no salary cap in baseball, it is the American sport that most resembles the characteristics of lots of European leagues. Spend more, win more and in one of the biggest TV markets in the US and with the biggest payroll in the MLB the temptation is just to suggest that they’ve achieved what they paid for.
However beyond the star names and huge contracts it was the complementary players on the roster that made the difference in the play-offs. Last year the Astros executed an exemplary roster build and turned the losing record in the league into a title by first trading away stars to then building through the draft and younger players.
This year the Red Sox saw the culmination of several years of huge spending and big trades that saw them trade away key pieces from a completely stacked farm system to acquire marquee players plus a complete overhaul of the front office.
They signed David Price to the largest contract in history for a pitcher in December 2015, then in these play offs he led them to series-clinching wins in both the ALCS and World Series. Chris Sale the star pitcher came over via a trade that sent the then no. 1 prospect in baseball, Yoán Moncada, to the White Sox after Boston had paid $63 million, half of that on a penalty fee for going over budget, to sign Moncada as an amateur.
Boston paid J.D. Martinez $110 million over five years. Martinez proceeded to rank in the top three in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, home runs, runs, runs batted in, and total bases in his first year in Fenway.
Boston didn’t bide its time waiting for an opportunity to win the title, but rather climbed through a competitive window as quickly and eagerly as it could the moment one opened and it took three seasons to win it.
The best regular-season team in years became the best playoff team in years, and one of the best teams in MLB history.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders shows a solid five year proven profitable track record. Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £43,819 All bets have an ROI +3.37%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £47,819 a 1095% increase
