Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup Quarter finals and four Premier League fixtures
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations, Ireland going for the grand slam at Twickenham.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, The ATP Indian Wells Masters in California
- Golf, On the USPGA the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. On the European Tour the Phillipines Golf Championship
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FA Cup Quarter Final Wigan v Southampton Sunday 1.30pm (BBC1)
Earlier this week I had done my notes and found an angle here and then, after 1 win in 17 matches, Southampton sacked Pellegrino. My thoughts turned towards finding another bet in another sport for this weekend. I think the legwork might have been rescued by the appointment of Mark Hughes as the new manager though so here goes…
In League One, promotion chasing Wigan are a tough prospect to face at home. In their last seven games, they have kept clean sheets six times, and all the matches saw both teams not to score and under 2.5 goals. They have only lost two games at home all season and in 18 league games have conceded only nine goals. Overall they have only conceded 23 in 34 (another clean sheet at Bradford on Wednesday) and in the combination of Nick Powell and Will Grigg (he’s on fire) they have 23 goals at the other end.
Southampton have had an extremely conservative tactical approach all season and have scored 13 goals in 14 Premier League away games and 29 in 30 overall but are well organised defensively. They have drawn 13 of 30 league games. Particularly with Austin out, they lack goals but in the back eight the side are compact and well drilled
Now my angle here (there are no replays in the FA Cup from this stage of the competition) was that the game shouldn’t contain many goals and that the price of 12/5 the draw (in a match where u2.5 goals is 8/13) was too high
Following the sacking the question then became what might a new manager do in his first few days to begin to turn Southampton round. Then it struck me that they made the change now because it is over a fortnight until Southampton’s next Premier League fixture (the whopper for the bottom six that is West Ham away) because of the international break and that the new manager wouldn’t be expected to change much this weekend. Changing now has given them some time and the new manager a fortnight on the training pitch, to do a “Carvahal” rather than a “Pardew” to give the two extremes of new manager “bounce” and “no bounce” in the league this season. Interestingly of the 8 managerial changes in the Premier League up to now seven have seen an improvement in points per game subsequently.
So, I came round to the view that the original anaylsis applies and the draw is the bet.
10 points Wigan and Southampton to draw 12/5 Bet365 and Betfred
A fair fight?
Next weekend sees the start of the 2018 Formula One season and in the off-season Formula 1 (under the control of new owners Liberty Media) and governing body the FIA laid out proposals for the next generation of F1 power units (PU), with improved noise, reduced cost, and a more level playing field among the key objectives. The hope is that it will create the conditions to facilitate new manufacturers entering Formula 1 as power-train suppliers. New F1 has the target to be the world’s leading global sports competition married to state of the art technology.
Design and development will not be possible until all information is released at the end of this next year, thus ensuring manufacturers continue to work on the current specification unit. In the meantime, the FIA and F1 will also work with the teams to establish power unit test and development restrictions as well as other cost containment measures.
The key features of the proposals presented to manufacturer representatives was:
- 1.6 Litre, V6 Turbo Hybrid
- 3000rpm higher engine running speed range to improve the sound
- Prescriptive internal design parameters to restrict development costs and discourage extreme designs and running conditions
- Removal of the MGUH
- More powerful MGUK with focus on manual driver deployment in race together with option to save up energy over several laps to give a driver controlled tactical element to racing
- Single turbo with dimensional constraints and weight limits
These Proposals created controversy but they are not the main problem F1 must face which is the funding gap between the teams which ultimately leads to (if 2017 was anything to go by) a two-second gap between the leaders and the rest. There is the huge disparity in the funding made available to some teams against others.
Williams exemplify this gap, using the same Mercedes engines as the champions but finished a distant fifth in the constructors’ standings.
It is unsurprising that the engine changes have created dissension based around the principle of keeping the 1.6-litre engine but ditching the complex and expensive motor generator heat unit attached to the turbo in favour of increasing the power of the kinetic energy recovery system.
The reaction from Mercedes and Renault was not favourable, with both concerned it would require them to design new power units and develop them at considerable expense, promoting a new F1 spending arms race.
Then the Ferrari president, Sergio Marchionne, weighed in, saying such was their distaste for the concept of standardised parts it might be enough to make his team quit F1.
Ferrari are the only team to have been in F1 since the first world championship in 1950 and are it’s most successful constructor, giving them strength in negotiations. With Marchionne emphasising that financial commitments in F1 were of huge importance to the car-maker, he has said he would have no qualms about being the man who took Ferrari out of F1 and that such a move would be “totally beneficial to the profit and loss”.
Formula One Group has made it clear that closer, more competitive racing among a greater number of teams is the aim. Bringing together the leaders – Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull – with the midfield who are well off their pace is a goal shared by fans. The test will be how to distribute the revenues from F1 more fairly – and ultimately that is likely to be of more concern, particularly to Ferrari.
Ferrari receive a long-standing team bonus estimated to be worth $68m They also collected a constructors’ championship bonus of more than $30m last year as do Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren. Williams receive a $10m heritage payment but even including that, the gap in revenue for last year between Williams team and Ferrari is around $100m.
F1 is aware of this issue is clear. “You need competition, you need the unknown, you need great finishes, you need great dramas. We’ve got to create that,” said the Chief Executive. F1 is attempting to sell a big-picture concept that they need many of the vested interests at the top the sport to adopt. Whether they is able to do so is possibly the most important task they will face and one that will decide whether F1 can enter a new era.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the Fourth Weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, the fifth and final match of the ODI Series between New Zealand and England in Christchurch overnight on Friday. The second Test between South Africa and Australia in Port Elizabeth.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, The ATP Indian Wells Masters in California
- Golf, On the European Tour the Indian Open.
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018 (Package)
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Cricket New Zealand v England 5th ODI Christchurch Starts 10pm Friday 9th March
Ross Taylor's stunning 181 not out in Dunedin helped New Zealand beat England by five wickets and level the one-day series at 2-2 with a game remaining. The final ODI takes place in Christchurch on Friday at 22:00 GMT.
England are 3rd in the ICC ODI rankings, New Zealand 4th and both sides are in great form in the format. On an otherwise disappointing tour England beat Australia 4-1 either side of the New Year whilst in their recent home series New Zealand beat the West Indies 3-0 and Pakistan 5-0 in ODIs
England are a dangerous ODI side, playing a much more aggressive brand of cricket after their debacle in the 2015 world cup. They bat very deep with a number of all rounders lengthening the order and with the one exception of missing a match winning spinner have talented bowlers with a range of options and despite their tribulations in other formats go well in ODIs. Unlike T20 they aren’t hampered by a lack of specialists and unlike Test cricket if on flat pitches, they can overcome the lack of match winning bowling depth.
New Zealand though are also a fine team able to play in a variety of manners. Guptill and Munro can blast at the top of the order if need be while Williamson and Taylor can accumulate in the middle order. Southee and Boult are experienced quick bowlers and in Mitchell Santner they have one of the fastest developing spinners in the limited overs game
I expected this to be a very closely fought series between well matched sides, 3-2 either way is my expected result and this will be the outcome.
Ross Taylor's stunning 181 not out helped New Zealand beat England by five wickets and level the one-day series at 2-2 with a game remaining.
Jonny Bairstow's 138 and Joe Root's 102 helped England post 335-9, despite a collapse of 21-6 in Dunedin, a middle overs setback that was to prevent them reaching 400 and leave New Zealand a chaseable score. Their big hitters fell quickly, giving themselves no time to settle in. Eoin Morgan and Ben Stokes were caught attempting big shots, Buttler was caught and bowled by Sodhi and the slow bowler's flight deceived Moeen as he returned figures of 4-58
Ross Taylor then played superbly to guide the hosts through the chase. With three runs needed from the final over, Henry Nicholls struck a six to secure an impressive win.
Just 16 months ago, Taylor was struggling to see the way the ball moved, and underwent surgery to remove a small growth from his left eye in January 2017. Since then, he has averaged 65.50 in one-day cricket, with four centuries and nine half-centuries to his name.
For this game at a venue I wanted to look at Kane Williamson who will be batting at three for New Zealand and they will look to base an innings around him
Williamson, one of the best batsmen in all formats of World Cricket, has made his orthodoxy work and is capable of scoring at a brisk tempo - he has a T20 hundred for Northern Knights and became the quickest New Zealand batsman, and fifth overall, to 3000 ODI runs. For a measure of his consistency, he has two streaks of five or more successive fifty-plus scores in ODIs in 20 months since 2014.
Overall he has 5000 ODI runs at an average of 46 with ten hundreds and 33 fifties and is
100/30 in a place and 3-1 generally to be top New Zealand scorer here even after his 112* in the 3rd ODI at Wellington. Helpfully for this bet, Ross Taylor who we would expect to be in the top three in the market here, is likely to be out injured.
9 points Kane Williamson Top New Zealand batsman 5th ODI New Zealand v England, 7/2 SkyBet 100/30 Bet365 and William Hill
New Beginnings
Seven NFL teams are in the off-season with new coaching teams. With the NFL combine last week showcasing the talent coming out of college for the upcoming draft and free agency about to start, here is a look at the seven teams to see which direction they might head.
It has long been one of the attractions of the sport for me that the salary cap, draft and free agency produces the possibility for sides to move from the bottom towards the top very quickly. Indeed in each of the last twelve years a side that has finished bottom of its division one season has won it the next and the betting opportunities that produces ante-post.
Just looking at what new coach Sean McVay did in his first season with the Rams shows what can be done in these turn-around situations.
Tennessee Titans: Head Coach Mike Vrabel
As a former NFL linebacker and Texans defensive coordinator, Vrabel comes to Tennessee as a defensive-minded coach. Priority number one for him is going to be helping quarterback Marcus Mariota, whose development stalled in his third year with a 13-touchdown, 15-interception season.
“We’re going to give Marcus some easy access throws and RPOs [run-pass options],” Vrabel said in his first press conference “We’re not going to run it into eight or nine guys. I believe in screens. I believe in play-action, things [Mariota] does well.”
In other words, Vrabel plans to ditch the Titans’ outdated scheme. Mike Mularkey’s offense wasn’t a good fit for Mariota’s skill set, and its design ran counter to just about everything that earned Mariota the Heisman Trophy. Instead of spreading things out and picking up the tempo, the Titans compressed the field with tight end–heavy formations and ran the ball more than all but seven teams. Despite the fact Mariota was one of the league’s most efficient passers off of play-action, he finished the year ranked just 13th in play-action attempts, and in the team’s divisional-round loss to the Patriots, Mariota threw just three passes off of play-action fakes.
Arizona Cardinals: Head Coach Steve Wilks
With no starting quarterbacks under contract (Carson Palmer retired) and the brilliant veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald’s future unresolved, the Cardinals are in the early stages of a rebuild having carried the oldest roster in the NFL last season.
In hiring former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, Arizona has at least put its excellent defense in capable hands. Wilks will look to instill the Panthers’ toughness and physicality on defense.
Wilks coached a 4-3 system in Carolina and comes to a team that’s been running a 3-4 defense over the past few years, but those distinctions really don’t matter anymore with the use of so many defensive sub-packages in the NFL. Whether they’re lining up with their hand on the ground or rushing from a two-point stance, the trio of Chandler Jones, Markus Golden, and Hassan Reddick will make for interesting pieces of Wilks’s new system. Considering Wilks’s background is in coaching defensive backs it will be intriguing to watch how he deploys an elite cornerback like Patrick Peterson along with the team’s two dynamic playmaking safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Budda Baker.
Much of the team’s success will hinge on who he and Wilks find for the quarterback spot, with the draft an almost certainty (in a year with 5-6 potential starting quarterbacks likely to be picked in the draft’s first round) and they are likely to be in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes, albeit as outsiders.
New York Giants: Head Coach Pat Shurmur
Going with former Vikings offensive coordinator and renowned quarterback guru Pat Shurmur looks like a smart choice for a Giants franchise that’s trying to get the most out of the last few years of Eli Manning’s career. Shurmur drew interest for head-coach openings because of the work he’s done with Case Keenum and Sam Bradford during the past two years.
His ability to design schemes that boost efficiency and accentuate the specific skills of his quarterbacks make him a great fit with a passer like Manning who has throughout his career shown the ability to hit some of the toughest throws on one play, and then throw an interception on the next play. Shurmur, who will be calling plays for the offense, is working with a Giants offense that has a top-tier pass catcher in Odell Beckham Jr. and another couple of talented playmakers in Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. They could well draft the running back Saquon Barkley at number 2 and that would make for a very powerful looking set of options on offense.
Longer term, Shurmur looks well-suited to usher in the transition away from Manning, whenever that happens. Maybe the team goes with Davis Webb, the Giants’ third-round pick last year, or maybe they use this year’s second overall pick on a quarterback. Either way, Shurmur’s role as the team’s new quarterback "whisperer" will mean he’s under the spotlight.
Defensively, the team brought in former Cardinals defensive coordinator James Bettcher, who will install his version of Arizona’s aggressive scheme and has aready traded for a linebacker, Alec Ogletree from the Rams. The Giants’ talented secondary and strong pass-rushing group should fit really well in Bettcher’s system. The offensive line needs a big, and likely expensive upgrade to allow those skill position players to really make hay. If it falls right this team could be THE candidate for a big rebound next season.
Chicago Bears: Head Coach Matt Nagy
More any other hire, bringing in Nagy from the Chiefs feels analogous to the transition the Rams went through last year from Jeff Fisher’s staff to that of McVay. Nagy cut his teeth as Andy Reid’s offensive coordinator and ended the season calling plays for Kansas City’s West Coast offense, which featured many college-style RPOs and read-option plays. Add in new offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich, who came up under Chip Kelly at Oregon before taking over as head coach in 2013, and the Bears could feature one of the most forward-thinking and fun offenses in the NFL next year.
That Chiefs-style scheme, which marries the college game and the pro game, seems like the perfect fit for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, an athletic young passer who played in a spread offense in college. Plus, based on what the Chiefs got out of rushing champion Kareem Hunt this season, it’s exciting to imagine what Nagy and his staff will cook up for their two running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
Nagy doesn’t appear to be changing much on defense. Instead, he’s entrusting that high-potential group to incumbent defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whom the team gave a three-year extension.
Oakland Raiders: Head Coach Jon Gruden
More than any other coaching change this year, the Gruden hire brings uncertainty. After being out of football for the past nine years, it’s fair to wonder how he will be able to pick back up his play-calling duties, and we’ll have to wait and see whether or not Gruden’s system will work in a 2018 NFL. He has already publically eschewed a big use of data for example and players on both sides of the ball are faster and more athletic than they were a decade or more ago. Will he stick to a philosophy that made him a success back in the late 1990s or evolve to throw more and incorporate college-style plays? It’s hard to know exactly what this Oakland offense will look like.
In any case, the Raiders’ success in the short term will hinge largely on what Gruden’s able to do with quarterback Derek Carr, who regressed badly in 2017 along with the rest of this Oakland team. Still, with a 10-year, $100 million deal, Gruden’s clearly going to get a lot of leeway to implement his programme.
Detroit Lions: Head Coach Matt Patricia
Patricia brings to Detroit a defensive scheme based on discipline and versatility and a famously sharp mind. Everyone’s favorite talking point is that he’s a rocket scientist!. The Patriots’ squads under Patricia were hard to define because they change so much from game to game, featuring three-man fronts at times and four-man looks at others. Linebackers are asked to both blitz and drop back into coverage, safeties are often interchangeable with corners, and the team seems to take a different game plan into every matchup, custom-tailored to exploit the opponent.
It’s impossible to take Belichick out of the equation, but Patricia’s earned a reputation for the ability to build a scheme around his players and we can expect Detroit’s defense to feature a nimble, hybrid system in 2018.
On offense the running game needs work, and could well be in receipt of a reasonably early round draft pick but the passing game shouldn't need too much tinkering. Detriot could be another team closer to the play-offs than some think.
Indianapolis Colts: Head Coach Frank Reich
Let down at the altar by Josh McDaniels the Colts may have lucked into a good appointment with the former Eagles offensive co-ordinator Frank Reich who it has to be said is moving at a time when his stock is at its highest but nevertheless he should produce some new thinking for a team that had a very predictable offense last season. Of course the short term outlook really depends on whether Andrew Luck returns to action in 2018 but if he does then this is a potential turn-around story too
They are likely to use the third overall draft pick on a defensive player (the defensive side of the ball has been under-invested in for some time, being rectified in the last couple of seasons) and add to that some innovative offense and the wins (Indy led 9 games after 3 quarters and finished with a 4-12 record) should begin to increase.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,256 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.85% (correct at 28/02/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.
(correct at 28/02/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea
- Cricket, the third match of the ODI Series between New Zealand and England in Wellington on Sunday. The first Test between South Africa and Australia in Durban.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City and Lingfield.
- Tennis, ATP events in Acapulco and Sao Paulo
- Golf, the WGC-Mexico Championship. On the USPGA the Puerto Rico Open and the on the European Tour the Tshwane Open in Pretoria.
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018 (Package)
All four race days of the festival are included and you will also get access to any previews or ante-post write ups that Neil does.
See here for details
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The Oscars by Neil Channing
I'm having 20 Points win Get Out for Best Original Screenplay at The Oscars at 5/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and Sky Bet
Choosy.
In the past fortnight Adil Rashid and Alex Hales become the first England players to agree deal to plays only 50-over and T20 matches for their counties. It is probable that they are the first of many such players in the English game given the crowded schedule and the increasing challenge of playing all formats.
As an example in the international game last year Australia played a T20 at home and a Test match in India in consecutive days. The sheer relentlessness of the international schedule has driven selectors to reserve players for certain formats. That can be seen in England’s 2016 central contract awards, putting white-ball only contracts on a par with red-ball only ones, and how they appear to have marked out Jos Buttler, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett and Rashid out as white ball specialists. Only three England players in the recent) ongoing T20 tri series (Tom Curran, Dawid Malan and James Vince ) played in the Ashes.
England coach Trevor Bayliss said recently
“I wouldn’t play T20 internationals. I’d just let the franchises play. If we continue putting on so many games there’ll be a certain amount of blowout, not just players but coaches as well.If you want to play a World Cup every four years or whatever it is, maybe six months before you get the international teams and let them play some T20 internationals.”
The recent T20 Tri-Series was only the second played in international cricket but it was squeezed into a small window after a long tour of Australia, who themselves were preparing for a Test series in South Africa, while a team of Big Bash League players participated in the tri-series.
Restricting T20 Internationals is highly unlikely though as it is a key driver of TV revenue into the sport. The corollary is that players can make a career out of T20 alone.
The ongoing “boom” in T20 within cricket is influencing player behavoiur widely. Joe Root entered the IPL auction for the first time this year but none of the franchises bid for him. Partly this reflected that Root would not have been available for the final stages of the tournament either this year or next (due to England’s test schedule) but it also reflected a belief that, for all his qualities, T20 has already left Root behind. He has fine T20 numbers, but the sport is evolving so rapidly that franchises deemed these almost irrelevant. What matters is that Root has only played eight T20 matches since the end of the 2016 World Twenty20. Franchises doubt whether he will be able to combine being an outstanding Test batsman with being an elite T20 player too
The sport does not face a split as rugby did in 1895. Instead it is a game undergoing an informal split with Test and T20 cricket both under the overall control of the same governing bodies but with the two games are still becoming unrecognisable, not merely in the rhythms of the matches themselves but in the personnel of those who play them.
Of the 22 players in last World T20 final only six have played Tests since and only three have done so since 2016.The skills needed to thrive in Test and T20 cricket are so distinct that it has become almost impossible to keep pace in both.
Without a radical change to the schedule, greater specialisation is inevitable. It is whether the demands of ever crowded schedules and the very different skills required ultimately render it impossible to thrive in both Test and T20 cricket simultaneously.
Cricket is moving towards a state where one sport is effectively becoming two. The challenges, given the high revenue in T20 and its relative attractiveness to the younger audience cricket seeks, are far more for the Test game (where a few countries attendances have declined substantially) which is being continually more marginalised
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,256 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.85% (correct at 28/02/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.
(correct at 28/02/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, the first match of the ODI Series between New Zealand and England in Hamilton on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle. All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Tennis, ATP events in Delray Beach, Florida, Rio and Marseille
- Golf, the Honda Classic at PGA National on the USPGA and the Qatar Masters on the European Tour
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018 (Package) - now added to our homepage.
All four race days of the festival are included and you will also get access to any previews or ante-post write ups that Neil does.
See http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/206 for details
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The Betfred Eider Chase, Newcastle: Saturday 2.45pm by Neil Channing
The Bubble bursts?
The past two domestic Premier League TV deals both produced 70% jumps in the value of rights, fueling spiraling wages and transfer fees. However last week’s auction of 2019-2022 rights left two of the seven packages still up for sale as Sky emerged the big winner and rival broadcaster BT saw its position weakened.
The sale of 160 games has raised £4.46bn compared with £5.14 bn for 168 fixtures from 2016 to 2019. The league will be looking to the sale of overseas rights to provide an upsurge in revenue for its 20 teams, who split the foreign income equally.
While remaining the biggest broadcaster of most games in Britain with four packages, Sky boasted how it was now paying 16% less per fixture in its £3.57bn three-year deal to show 128 games per season. That equates to savings of almost £600m for the company while showing an additional two games a year from the league it helped to grow from its inception in 1992.
While Sky’s price per game drops from £11m to £9.3m, BT had to agree to pay £9.2m (up from £7.6m ) for one package of 32 games. The broadcaster has lost 10 games and will only screen games now on Saturday lunchtimes. BT said it “remained financially disciplined” while bidding.
The Premier League increased the number of games available for live broadcasting in Britain to 200, with only overseas channels able to air all 380 fixtures a year live in a bid to maintain large attendances at stadiums.
The Premier League said “multiple bidders” remain interested in the two remaining packages that allow broadcasters to show every game in four rounds of matches on weekdays. It is the first time an entire schedule of fixture can be aired live domestically, and there is speculation that Amazon, Netflix and Facebook will use them as a chance to gain a foothold in the Premier League.
The 2019-2022 Chinese rights have already been sold to online video streaming service PPTV for $700m in the league’s biggest-ever global deal. In 2015, the American rights were sold through 2022 to NBC in a six-year deal worth $1bn.
If the games in the remaining two packages sell for as little as £5m each then PL income for live UK rights will be just under £5.1bn for 2019-2022 against just over £5.1bn for 2016-19. Either way this is a plateau at worst, which is not a burst bubble. Overseas rights remain a source of optimism, and will be upon 2016-19.
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Brodders Football Analysis
Betting £10 a point just for 2018 is winning £5244. Jan +12.78% +ROI Feb +29.99% +ROI.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Fifth round of the FA Cup
- Cricket, the T20 Tri-Series continues with the last of the group games in New Zealand, who play England in Hamilton on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. All-weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield.
- Tennis, the World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam. ATP Opens in Buenos Aires and New York
- Golf, the Genesis Open at Riviera GC in Los Angeles on the USPGA and the Oman Open on the European Tour
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018
Package now added to our homepage.
All four race days of the festival are included and you will also get access to any previews or ante-post write ups that Neil does.
See here for details
Cheltenham 2018 Preview Night
We have nearly sold out of tickets for our Cheltenham Preview Dinner. If you are thinking of coming buy your ticket now as there are just a few left.
When: Saturday 10th March 2018 (615pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
See here for full details
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
2018 Super Rugby Preview
After two seasons in which 18 teams participated, Supe rRugby 2018 sees the tournament revert to 15 teams participating in of three geographical conferences with the Cheetahs, Kings and Force dropped for this season
The teams are divided intothe Australian Conference (consisting of four Australian teams and the Sunwolves), the New Zealand Conference (consisting of five New Zealand teams), and the South African Conference (consisting of four South African teams and the Jaguares)
In the group stages, there are 18 rounds of matches, with each team playing 16 matches and having two rounds of byes. Teams play eight inter-conference matches and eight cross-conference matches; they play all the other teams in their conference twice and play once against four of the teams in the other two conferences.
The top team in each of the three conferences qualifies for the quarterfinals, as do the next five teams with the best records across the three conferences.
The Crusaders, secured their eighth Super Rugby title last season, with a 25-18 win over the Lions in Johannesburg. In 2017, 142 matches were played and a total of 978 tries were scored, the highest tries per game ratio in the tournament’s history.
Tournament outright odds (best generally available) are
Crusaders 7/2
Hurricanes 4/1
Lions 6/1
Chiefs 8/1
Highlanders 8/1
Blues 14/1
Brumbies 16/1
Stormers 18/1
25/1
The New Zealand conference and the New Zealand game is general is the strongest in the competition as evidenced by them having five of the six tournament favourites this time round.
The Hurricanes won 12 of their 15 regular season matches last year and were the only team to beat the Crusaders, a 31-22 win in the final round of the regular season. They lost in Johannesburg in the Semis having won the competition the year before.
The Hurricanes broke the try-scoring season record in 2017 scoring 97, 16 more than the record set by the Lions the year before. They played high-octane brand of rugby and managed to secure the second-best defensive record (points allowed and tries allowed) in the competition. Players like Vaea Fifita and Ardie Savea starred and the side from Wellington has the best 9-10 combination (TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett) in the competition. Their vision and speed created a number of opportunities for the key centre pairing of Ngani Laumape (15 tries) and Vince Aso (14 tries). Fullback Jordie Barrett also had a phenomenal breakout season
In addition Wellington won the domestic Mitre 10 Championship last year and a pipeline of great talent is now coming into the Hurricanes team to give the squad great depth through a long season
Super Rugby will also see an adoption of some law changes that were announced by World Rugby in July 2017. The facets of the game where changes have taken place are the tackle area, the ruck and the scrum. SANZAAR CEO Andy Marinos is on the record as stating he 'hopes these changes will lead to a better flowing game'. If it does, no team will be better placed to benefit than the Hurricanes.
I expect the Hurricanes to win the New Zealand Conference, and win their second title in three seasons
10 points Hurricanes to win 2018 Super Rugby 4/1 Bet365, Coral, Betfred
Mathletes
The term GTO (Game Theory Optimistion ) originated with poker. Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson applies GTO to on-field decision making, which is revolutionary for the NFL.
As written here a couple of weeks ago The Eagles went for it on fourth down 26 times during the regular season , second most in the league converting a league-high 17 attempts. This happened twice more in the Superbowl. Firstly on 4th and 2 in the first half and secondly in the now famous “Philly Special” play,the touchdown pass to quarterback Nick Foles on 4th and 1 before half time, which Foles requested they run.
In the scenario the Eagles found themselves in ( fourth-and-goal situation and up three points just before half) most coaches would kick a field goal and take the points.
The situations in which the Eagles decide on the aggressive course of action are not random. They are often decided before the start of the game or even before the start of the season. The approach is driven by an analytics team who communicate with the head coach during a game discussed how he has an analytics expert in his ear all game telling him Success Rates & Win Probabilities of play calls.
Last season, updated for the Superbowl, they scored a touchdown or field goal on 15 of the 20 drives in which they converted a fourth down, totaling 95 points. The times they went for it on fourth down and didn't convert, the opposing team didn't score a single point on the subsequent drive.
I first noticed this (and frankly thought far less of it than I should have done, at least from a betting perspective) last September when watching NFL Red Zone one Sunday evening. The Eagles went for a 4th and 8 against the Giants, ( from the Giants' 43-yard line Eagles were up 7-0 with 2:36 remaining in the second quarter ) a decision that looked baffling and was commentated on in such terms.
When Pederson was asked afterwards about the call he began his explanation with what was then a revelation.
"Yeah, it was something I discussed with the guy that's helping me upstairs with some of the analytics,"
Pederson named one of them at his day-after news conference -- coaching assistant/linebackers coach Ryan Paganetti, a Dartmouth graduates who spent two years as an analyst for the team. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich (now the new coach of the Indianapolis Colts ) said there is a second voice that can be heard over the game-day communications system when it comes to such matters -- director of football compliance Jon Ferrari.
The pair weighs in throughout the game, Reich said: after just about every touchdown on whether to go for one or two; during the final two minutes of each half to discuss timeouts, etc.; and when the team gets into what is considered fourth-down territory -- usually around midfield and beyond. Sometimes Pederson initiates the dialogue; other times, the men upstairs do.
Interestingly GTO ideas have been around for several years in the NFL. A 2015 Harvard paper was titled “Optimal Play Calling in the NFL: A Data-Driven Approach”
In it (link available on request!) the author begins “how should a coach go about choosing a play? In the end, I hope to convince you that it’s one of the most interesting mathematical problems in sports. And obviously play calling is one of the most important problems in football. So pretty much, math is the most important thing in football.”
And he concludes “a rigorous, mathematical play calling scheme adds an advantage to the intuitive, experiential knowledge that coaches already have.”
Returning to the Eagles
"When you do the math, you really want to try to be a lot more aggressive than the public would normally anticipate," said Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie last week.
At an earlier press conference he said
"A lot of teams -- ours is one -- where it's all [decided] is in the offseason, done with mathematics. It's not based on any form of instinct. If it's going to be 50/50, 48/52, then a coach is going to have their instinctual predilection, right? But what we found is there's been so many decisions over time that are too conservative for the odds of maximizing your chance to win at the opportunity, So any decision, hopefully, any coach of ours makes is based on maximising the chances to win. We've lived with television commentators and reporters and whatever for 20, 30, 40 years, who always kind of adopted what I would call a very conservative approach to those decisions. I think the smarter teams do it that way."
The NFL is a copycat league, look out for analytics and GTO to be talked about a lot more next season and aggressive plays becoming much more the norm.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
