Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 21st-22nd March

Posted on 15 Mar 2015 12:49 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, a full Premier League programme including Liverpool v Manchester United on Snday and the football league programme

- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the 2015 Six Nations with England, Ireland and Wales seperated by points difference going into Saturday's three games

- Racing, national hunt meetings at Newbury, Stratford, Kelso, Bangor and Fontwell Park

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend with the last quarter final on Saturday morning, New Zealand v the West Indies in Wellington

- Tennis, the conclusion of the ATP and WTA Indian Wells tournaments

- Golf, USPGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill GC, Orlando. European Tour: Madeira Islands Open, Portugal.


Free Tips of the Week   

The final weekend of the Six Nations sees the following three games

12pm Italy v Wales

3pm Scotland v Ireland

5pm England v France

After last week's results, England, Ireland and Wales are seperated by points difference at the top of the table

England 6 points +37 points difference

Ireland 6 points +33 points difference

Wales 6 points +12 points difference

France 4 points +22 points difference

So, the order of games is important. Wales will go out against Italy and try and set a target for Ireland, who then have to beat Scotland by enough to surpass that and set a benchmark for England at home in the last game who will know what they need to do to secure the Championship

External factors could play a part too. Good weather in Rome, bad weather in the UK and the points scoring potential of the three teams changes dramatically

Current odds to win the Six Nations are as follows:

England 5/6 Ireland 7/4 Wales 13/2

So who are the likely winners? Lets take a look at each game and reach a conclusion

Italy v Wales

- Wales are 24 point favourites here. At first glance that seems high. On their last four visits to Rome they have only scored two tries in each match, with the last three victories only bringing points differences of 5, 8 and 17. However....

- Italy's 29-0 defeat at home to France was the most abject six nations performance by any team in years. They also only have a six day turnaround before this game having played on Sunday and captain (and one of their few world class players) Parisse is out injured. When this news broke on Thursday, the Welsh Six Nations outright price fell by up to a point.

- Wales meanwhile were brilliant in defence aginst Ireland, recording a six nations record 250 team tackles and at one stage repelling 32 phases of Irish play in their own half

- Wales should win comfortably of course. In their favour, the Italian goal-kicking is the weakest in the competition by a long way. If they don't keep their score ticking over the chances of Wales receiving the required boost to points difference increases

- On the downside, it took an enormous physical effort to win against Ireland, and this match is only a week later. There are key injuries too, including three front row forwards. Whilst the sight of the Italian pack being shunted backwards by the French will be of some comfort, the prospect of a new Welsh front row may mitigate some of the advantage expected.

Scotland v Ireland

- The second quarter of the game aside, where Scotland attacked fluently, Scotland were blown away by England's power and to only lose by 12 was extremely fortunate indeed

- With the way that Ireland squeeze the life out of teams, Scotland could capitulate in this final match. Scotland do not have the size and strength up front and in defence that Wales have.

- As for Ireland, it could be said that they lacked a player with the magic to unlock Wales during those long spells of pressure but you could also argue that from a poor start and 12-0 down, and with Sexton on an off-day, they came back to come very close to drawing the game at the end

- Ireland are 8 point favourites to win in Edinburgh. That looks too low to me

England v France

- As we know points difference is going to prove crucial this weekend, and if England had finished just some of the raft of clear opportunities they created against Scotland, i wouldn't be writing this article. As it is, they squandered most of those chances generated from no less than 12 line breaks and are only four points better off than Ireland now.

- France are traditionally poor travellers (and that includes that they have won just one of their last 10 matches at Twickenham ), and many fancied them to get turned over on a wet day in Rome but the Italian performance was full of missed opportunities and France were gifted kickable penalties too. They too have a six day turnaround from their last match.

- This should be a real arm-wrestle, in part because (one lovely try in Rome apart) the French do not utilise the flair in their back three at all. Under Saint Andre we should expect France to play the percentages and take England on up front. The problem is the kicking game they employ is too inconsistent and the patterns of play are easy to defend. Mistakes such as in Rome, where France committed 20 handling errors, are also part of the problem.

- England are 9 point handicap favourites

Conclusion

England at odds-on are opposable. I tipped Wales pre-tournament in this column and expected the tournament to be decided on points difference, no grand slam. Unfortunately the combination of them winning by 20+ AND one of the other two not moving past them looks unlikely which accounts for them being the 13/2 outsider of three.

The interesting price is Ireland at nearly 2/1. Their style of play matches up really well with Scotland, who they should over-power. Granted we are then hoping for a performance of sorts from France, who if they were a horse would have two timeform squiggles next to their name, but we're getting 7/4 on one, 5/6 the other and only four points in it

Ultimately, I think Ireland will set England the task of beating France by at least 15 points in the final game.

10 points Ireland at 7/4 to win the Six Nations, Ladbrokes and Corals

(please note, at the time of writing Betfair Sportsbook have enhanced their price on Ireland winning the Six Nations to 2-1, maximum stake £25)


At th 2015 Cheltenham Festival Willie Mullins, Ireland's champion trainer, claimed a record eight successes at the meeting. This prompted bookmakers to quote 20-1 about Mullins winning all four festival majors in 2016

Five of Mullins's eight winners are owned by the ex-Barclays Capital investment banker Rich Ricci who, before and after his ousting from the firm in 2013 has invested enormous amounts of his fortune in National Hunt racing, a fortune enhanced by the sale of over £70m in shares prior to his departure.

“I came to horseracing with a lot of baggage,” admits Ricci. “I’ve got a stupid name, I was in an industry people hate and I’m a knuckle head."

An irony, given how much the banking crisis of which Ricci was a public face via the LIBOR scandal in particular affected so many people in the past few years, is that some of those same people affected stood to win significant windfalls last Tuesday if Annie Power had brought home the final leg of the Ricci multiple but the £50-100m estimated liability was of course denied by the mares' fall at the last in the World Hurdle one of the most dramatic sporting moments of the last few years across any sport. Their returns were directly linked to the fortunes of the Ricci horses.

What is clear, from the strength of the Mullins stable and especially the brilliance of Ricci horses such as Faugheen, Vautour and Douvan is that the investment has changed the competitive balance of the top end of the sport for the foreseeable future. This already saw Paul Nicholls deliberately target the big weekend prizes around the country in the weekends before the festival before the Mullins hordes arrived and will only intensify in the years to come

So, with Mullins and Ricci carrying all before them, Friday saw an incredibly competitive looking Gold Cup that saw an extremely unusual outcome. Coneygree was the first novice winner since 1974 and led from start to finish on at best good-to-soft ground and had only jumped fences in public 3 times before the race.

The background to Coneygree is one that screenplay writers will be looking at. Last November at Plumpton, Coneygree was due to run his first race after two years injured. The horse was withdrawn at the start by a vet who said Coneygree showed signs of lameness. The trainer's wife recounted this in the aftermath of the Gold Cup, remembering that her protestations to the vet were met by the response

"He's had two years off, he's not worth anything anyway"

Coneygree's dam, Plaid Maid, cost £3,000 and was bought to give her father, the late Lord Oaksey an interest in his later years. Lord Oaksey bred Coneygree and Carruthers from her.

At the Gold Cup, Coneygree was led up by Lily Bradstock,the trainers daughter who two years ago was unable to walk following a kick from a horse, and had to end her riding career subsequently.

The Mark Bradstock stable only has ten horses, near Leighton Buzzard.

On top of this almost perfect check-list of fairytale elements to the winner's story the horse he beat into second? Djakadam. Trained by Willie Mullins. Owned by Rich Ricci.

I didn't have a penny on Coneygree but I roared it up the hill.

Subsequently Coneygree was given a mark of 172, the highest for any novice chaser over any distance in a century

A victory for racing romantics and a hark back to an era passing us by daily, as the competitive environment of jumps racing changes.

Next, Aintree.....


Aintree Grand National Festival (9-11 April 2015)

Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 9th-11th April 2015
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At the Aintree Festival 2014 we had winners at 28/1, 16/1, 14/1, 4/1 and horses places at 40/1, 25/1, 18/1, 16/1, 11/1, 9/1, 8/1,11/2

All horse racing selections (since our launch in Feb 2013) are showing a +ROI of +14.95% and +764 pts


Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights through to May 21st.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

Premier League Darts (full 16 week package) £99.99 Sign Up Here

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All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


What else is on Betting Emporium?

Cricket World Cup: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)

All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 14th-15th March

Posted on 9 Mar 2015 09:53 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, a full Premier League and football league programme

- Formula One, the opening weekend of the 2015 season in Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend with the last of the Group Games. Most of the quarter final places are decided, but Ireland can also still qualify by beating Pakistan

- Racing, After the excitement of the Cheltenham festival, national hunt meetings at Kempton, Uttoxeter and Newcastle

- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the 2015 Six Nations including Wales hosting Ireland and the Calcutta Cup match England v Scotland

- Tennis, the opening weekend of the big Indian Wells tournaments on the ATP and WTA Tours

- Golf, the USPGA Tour at the Valspar Championship in, Palm Harbor, Florida and the European Tour's Tshwane Open at Centurion, South Africa.


Free Tips of the Week   

The fourth weekend of the six nations, featuring Ireland's major hurdle towards winning the Grand Slam in Cardiff and the the Calcutta Cup at Twickenham:

Wales v Ireland

Ireland's 19-9 victory over England was in part due to the ruthless pragmatism of the side under Joe Schmidt and in part because England underperformed. In Jonny Sexton and Connor Murray Ireland have superb game-managers, executing plans perfectly and with strong defence, competitive forwards and the brilliant kicking game they have won 3 out of 3 this tournament (and their last ten internationals )and are two wins away from a Grand Slam

Saturday is their toughest test on the way to the Slam, as Wales in Cardiff (despite a very poor record over the years at home against the Irish) are a challenge. Wales went to Paris and won, playing to a high level and if they can win on Saturday are right in the hunt for the Six Nations title with their last game in Rome.

Understandably enough the bookmakers expect this to be a very close game. Ireland are 10/11 outright and only one point handicap favourites. Both sides will kick their points and defend well. Wales will probably want to be more expansive and not get too bogged down in a forward battle where Ireland would likely have the edge

This should be a one score game. I said that for the Ireland/England game in Dublin and still scratch my head at some of England's tactical play and wonder how it wasn't.

I quite like backing a competitive home team as an under-dog and although this is clearly not the strongest of Six Nations a grand slam team has to play more than the percentages at some stage. Delving into the patterns of play so far into the tournament a bit further

- Ireland have scored less tries than Scotland, Italy, Wales and England in the tournament

- Ireland have carried the ball for fewer yards than England, Scotland and France

- 12 offloads in the tournament, and four other sides have over double the number

- 9 line breaks in three games, the fewest of the six nations.

That they are so successful speaks to current rugby laws as well as the brilliant kicking game they have.

The Ulster coach said this week "The current laws of rugby are well behind smart-thinking coaches like Joe Schmidt and the rapid development of organised defensive systems. Smart coaches are manipulating the laws so running rugby is penalised and a kicking game is rewarded."

If this is the game though where more than playing the percentages is required, and to think this you have to hope Wales try to play expansively, then there is little in the "attacking" statistics above to suggest that Ireland will get the better of Wales.

10 points Wales to win by 1-12 points at 2-1 with William Hill

 

England v Scotland

Scotland are a frustrating team to watch. Expansive and talented, with finally some oomph in the back-line the promise of an encouraging Autumn has evaporated in three successive losses in the Six Nations and on the last two occasions, the home defeats to Wales and Italy, watching the side has resembled looking on at a toddler on a bike when you take the training wheels off. You know that eventually it will all be fine but just in the short term its all very wobbly and you might need the elastoplasts handy. So it was in both the last two defeats when defeat was plucked from the jaws of probable victory as the bicycle crashed over onto the pavement.

In essence Scotland lack gamecraft and lack experience of winning. England meanwhile have responded to signs of inexperience of their own in Dublin. Brown and Lawes are back, with Wood on the bench and at Twickenham they should perform much better again

The problem if you are expecting England to rebound strongly is that this is pretty much priced in, and the recency of Scotland's recent disappointments weigh large on prices where England are 1/10 outright and no less than 16 point handicap favourites. England should win, but I don't think they will do so by more than 2 scores, especially if Scotland play the sort of rugby that they are capable of which will threaten tries

10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 William Hill


 

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights through to May 21st.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

Premier League Darts (full 16 week package) £99.99 Sign Up Here

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

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This brief article stems from me having to teach myself American odds a while ago!

There are three ways that odds will be specified depending on bookmaker and the market they operate in. They are American, Decimal and Fractional.

+200

This is known as “American Style” odds.  It is based on betting or winning $100.  For American odds that are positive, such as +200, then it is based on betting 100 units, say dollars.  At +200 if you bet $100, then you will win $200 if your team prevails.  If the American odds is negative, such as -200, then it is based on how much you have to wager to win $100.  At -200 you would wager $200 to win $100 if your team prevails.

3.05

This is known as “Decimal Style”, and most frequently seen on the exchanges and something with which most of us will be familiar. 

2/1
This is known as “Fractional Style”. Fractional odds are not used very often outside of the UK and Ireland but of course it is our bread and butter. 

Converting American style odds to Decimal odds and vice versa

To convert American odds to Decimal, simply divide an underdog's price (positive odds) by 100 and add 1, or divide the favourite's price (negative odds) into 100 (after dropping the minus-sign) and add 1. To convert decimal odds of less than 2.0 to American, subtract 1 and divide into -100. For odds greater than 2.0, subtract 1 and multiply by 100.

To give an example American odds offered for a team to win (a favourite so American odds are negative) are -250. We lose the minus sign and it's (100 / 250) + 1 equals 1.40. And for positive odds we take the other side to win, an underdog, odds are +400, it's (400/100) + 1 equals 5.00.

To convert Decimal odds to American we take odds for a win which is offered at 1.40, so under 2.00. It's 100/ (1.40 - 1) equals 250. Now for odds over 2.00 we take the other side to win at odds 5.00, so it's (5.00 - 1) x 100 equals 400.

Converting Fractional odds to Decimal odds and vice versa

We divide two sides of Fractional odds to get a fraction and add 1. A favourite to win in Fractional odds is valued at 2/5, for example. It's 2/5 equals 0.4 + 1 equals 1.40.

Converting Fractional odds to American and vice versa

American odds that start with a + sign show you how much money you will make for every 100 bet, not including your original 100. To work out the fractional odds simply divide the expected profit by 100. So for +150, (150/100 = 1.5/1). And now multiply both sides by 10 to get 15/10. To work out the decimal odds just add the two fractional odds together (1.5 +1 = 2.5).


What else is on Betting Emporium?

Cricket World Cup: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)

All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 7th-8th March

Posted on 1 Mar 2015 11:41 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

- Football, QPR v Tottenham is the only Premier League match alongside the FA Cup Quarter finals and the football league programme 

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend. Pakistan v South Africa and Australia v Sri Lanka are key group games

- Racing, ahead of the Cheltenham festival, includes national hunt meetings at Sandown, Chepstow and Ayr.

- Tennis, the Davis Cup World Group 1st Round matches around the world

- Golf, the World Golf Championships - Cadillac Championship at the Trump National Doral in Florida.


Free Tips of the Week   

Later in this week's blog I have written about betting on F1 and the variety of markets available both on races and the season as a whole. For this week's free tip section, a quick summary of suggested ante-post bets for the F1 season.

Winter testing results are keenly analysed for the likely trends for the season ahead. They can be difficult to interpret, teams can "sandbag", develop their cars at different rates and carry varying levels of fuel but nevertheless we can still look at the outcomes and compare to betting markets.

The major trends this winter as follows:

- Mercedes remain the quickest package. On the soft tyre faster than any other car even when their competitors were running the much quicker super-soft, which Mercedes did not run all winter

- Hamilton did a race simulation run at the second test on which he was more than 0.8 seconds a lap on average faster than Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo

- Mercedes appear to have made a car that last year produced one of the most dominant seasons in F1 history even faster. As Hamilton said, when asked for his impressions of the new car: "Like last year's car but better."

- Behind Mercedes, the next few teams look tightly bunched. Williams, Ferrari and Red Bull are in this pack.

- Times suggest that Williams have an advantage over Ferrari of anywhere between 0.2-0.4 seconds. Indications are that Williams' fastest times this winter were on full qualifying, low-fuel specification though

- Ferrari have improved their engine, their weakest link last year. Ferrari have added as much as 80bhp compared to 2014

- The Red Bull chassis again appears strong, but Renault has made the smallest gains of any manufacturer over the winter - only 30bhp or so - with the result that their works team looks to have fallen further behind Mercedes, with upgrades only due in the summer.

- Huge teething problems for the new McLaren Honda

Relating that through to the markets:

- All set to be Rosberg v Hamilton Mark 2. I think the signs are that Mercedes further ahead than they ended last season. Hamilton is 4/6, Rosberg 5/2. Whilst Hamilton is a fraction quicker, and a more aggressive racer there will almost certainly be a time this season when Rosberg will trade favourite, 5/2+ is a decent price for only a marginal underdog who led the championship for long periods last year.

- "Without Mercedes" markets: Six drivers sub 10-1, and that includes Alonso (who misses the first race and anyway will be a long way behind by the time McLaren are competitive), Raikkonen (who won't be on an equal footing with Vettel) and Massa (beaten by over 50 points by Bottas last season in identical cars). That leaves Ricciardo, Vettel and Bottas. Bottas, undoubtedly a potential world champion on a 3-5 year view, was a potential play at 9/2 less than a week ago but has been backed into 5/2 favourite. Looking at prices now, Vettel offers most value. The Red Bull is underpowered and the Ferrari is close to Williams already, with more to come

Formula One 2015 Season Ante post:

20 points Nico Rosberg to win the Drivers Championship 3.9 Betfair (5/2 Betfair Sportsbook or Bet365 is a lower price limit)

10 points Sebastian Vettel to win the Drivers Championship w/o Mercedes 3/1 Ladbrokes (5.0+ in small size on Betfair)


Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)

Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four

The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99

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Betting Emporium are very excited to be hosting our first ever Cheltenham Preview Night on Saturday

When: Saturday 7th March 2015 (6.30pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)

Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ

Full details can be found HERE

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Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through to May 21st 2015.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

Premier League Darts (full 16 week package) £99.99 Sign Up Here

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

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It only seems like weeks ago that Lewis Hamilton won his second Formula 1 World Championship but in just over a week we are into another season with the first Grand Prix of 2015 in Australia.

Here is a summary of some of the most popular ways to bet on the sport and what to look for. This will range from race outright winner through to matchup bets, podium finishers, ante-post & props.

Betting on Outright race winners

Bets on the outright winner of a race are the most popular type of F1 bet by volume. It’s the most basic type of bet where punters simply choose who they think will win the race.

In most F1 seasons, only 4-6 drivers will win races. It’s a top-heavy sport where a small number of drivers win due to performance disparities from teams at the top of the grid to those further back

Podium finishers

As the title implies, betting on drivers to finish in the top 3 in any given race. When one driver or team is offering poor odds as an outright winner, podium finisher bets can be the place to find value. This was often the case in 2014 with one dominant team, short-priced favourites and a variety of teams competitive for filling the podium depending on prevailing conditions and circuit characteristics.

F1 Match-Up Betting

A match-up bet is where two or more drivers are put into a grouping, and our job is to figure out which of those drivers will have the best finish. When the grouping consists of just two drivers, these are usually called head-to-head bets. When it’s 3 or more drivers in a group, they’re called match-ups.

Betting on match-ups eliminates most of the drivers in the field from your calculations.

Prop Bets

Prop bets are any types of bets that don’t fit into the standard betting categories. In F1, they are based on specific events or results that don’t relate to the race winner.

Examples of typical F1 prop bets:

  • Fastest Lap
  • Fastest Qualifier
  • First Driver to Retire
  • Over/under on season race wins per driver.

Ante Post Betting

World Drivers Championship markets for 2015 have been offered since the end of the last season. Some sites close these bets just before the season begins but most keep them open through into the season.

Since winning bets don’t pay out until the end of the season, which is 9 months long and since this is a sport where big priced underdogs are highly unlikely to win these types of bets are more popular with casual punters than professionals. This is especially the case in the last couple of years with Mercedes dominant under new regulations. For 2015 the market prices up Hamilton 4/6 Rosberg 5/2 18/1 bar with each way markets only offering two places

The World Constructors Championship is given to the top engine/car combination. Since the top driver accumulates the most points, the World Constructors Championship usually goes to the constructor of the car driven by the Drivers Champion. However, since this is a team championship, other drivers on the team must also perform well.

With that said, in 27 of the last 30 F1 seasons (1985-2014), the World Constructors Championship has been won by the team who also won the World Drivers Championship. This means that your Drivers Championship and Constructors Championship futures bets should typically coincide with each other.

For 2015 Mercedes are 1/20 to win the constructors 20/1 bar….

Unsurprisingly, bookmakers offer us markets without the favourite and because much of the field is bunched up behind Mercedes, these look much more competitive: 5/2 the field in the Drivers w/o Hamilton and Rosberg and 6/1 bar the top 5.


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)

All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 28th February - 1st March

Posted on 22 Feb 2015 10:36 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, a full Premier League and football league programme 

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend. New Zealand v Australia and England v Sri Lanka are key Group A games on Saturday

- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Doncaster, Newbury and Kelso

- Tennis, the ATP tour events are in Dubai, Buenos Aires and Acapulco

- Rugby Union the Six Nations resumes, with the clash of unbeaten Ireland and England in Dublin on Sunday the highlight

- Golf, the European Tour's Joburg Open in South Africa and the USPGA Tour's Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida


Free Tip of the Week     

This weekend sees a pivotal game in this year's Six Nations Rugby with Ireland v England (Sunday 3pm). Both sides have played two, won two and this is really a clash to relish.

Ireland at home play a very consistent style based off the forwards, Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray's excellent tactical kicking game and brilliant defence. Against France a fortnight ago the re-starts were brilliant, the big guns are returning in the pack (though the loss through injury of Jamie Heaslip is a blow)  and the breakdown work is awesome. France's size caused them some problems, but that is nine wins in a row now leading up to the World Cup in the Autumn. Coach Joe Schmidt, who put out sides playing flowing attacking rugby at Clermont and Leinster has gone more ‘English’ in style at national level. The Ireland side is pragmatic and foucuses as much on stopping the opposition as creating chances. No doubt they will pay the mercurial Jonathan Joseph close attention.

England have the brawn to meet Ireland head on and finally are showing signs of some creativity in the backs making space and finishing opportunities. Where in the past two games England have lacked in comparison to Ireland is in defence, but if England have addressed this over the past fortnight in training this is likely to be an attritional game of few opportunities where field position is key. One of the reasons for this is that under Ireland's tactical approach they struggle to score tries. It took an hour to break down Italy in Rome, and they did not cross the paint against France. It is going to be a real arm-wrestle and most likely a battle of penalty kicks for long periods.

The handicap market is struggling to split these two with Ireland at home only 1 point favourites. If pushed, I would fancy them to win outright at home in large part because of Murray and Sexton and their game manangement/execution of strategy, and would consider -1 to under-state their home advantage but whoever wins it would be a major surprise if this was more than a one score game either way.

Rather than pick a 10/11 handicap shot for this column, we try to avoid anything too short for the free weekly tips, the bet that appeals is in the Half-time/Full-Time market where we can "dutch" England/Ireland and Ireland/England at 7/1 each. Much like the opening game of the Six Nations, where Wales dominated the first half, led and England came back for the win in the second half there appears to be a real possibility that a very close game here could see a narrow half time lead reversed at the end. My contention above that Ireland will try to stop England creating, whilst at the same time not scoring many tries themselves is at the heart of this view.

I'm choosing the one bet here, as I like Ireland to win the game 

5 points England/Ireland  Half-time/Full-Time at 13/2 at SkyBet or 6/1 generally


Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)

Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four

Winners at 40/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 6/1. Placed at 20/1, 18/1 (2nd and 3rd in same race), 16/1, 14/1, 7/1, 7/1, 6/1

Cheltenham 2013: 51 points profit, ROI +29.86% Three winnings days out of four

Winners at 7/1 and 11/2. Placed at 66/1 and 40/1 (2nd and 3rd same race), 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 15/2, 13/2, 5/1, 5/1

The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99

Sign up here


Betting Emporium are very excited to be hosting our first ever Cheltenham Preview Night

When: Saturday 7th March 2015 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)

Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ

Full details can be found HERE


Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through to May 21st 2015.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

Premier League Darts (full 16 week package) £99.99 Sign Up Here

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Watch Neil's videos with his free Cheltenham tips

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle Video 1

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Chase Video 2

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: World Hurdle Video 3

Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tips and get a FREE bet up to £100 as well

Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'

(If you've had your Sportingbet account restricted in the past we may be able to get you back in action there. Email support@bettingemporium.com)

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com
 

An Ante-post bet is a long-term wager on the outcome of a season or special event.  Most of the time you’ll find the markets on events listed before a season begins.  For instance, you can bet on who is going to win the next year's Superbowl or Premier League the day after the event ends and in modern markets these bets aren’t limited to teams either, as you can also place bets on individual player accomplishments.  Some sportsbooks offer these only before the season begins, while others have them listed all season long, up until the season is almost complete.

What factors should you consider in ante-post betting?

1. Time Value of Money

Some people think that you just look for value and if you think you have spotted a positive expectation you should pounce on it.  However, with ante-post betting you also have to consider the time value of money.  This means how long is part of your bankroll going to be tied up in the bet. If you are betting on an outcome that won’t be decided until eight months from now, you are going to need a higher return than a game that will be played tonight (assuming you will use that part of your bankroll x times over the length of time you are proposing to tie the money up for, generating a positive return from using it).  How much do you make each year from gambling?  Let’s just use an example of 10%.  If the result is eight months away, that means you need 8/12 (months in a year) * 10%, or a 6.66% expected return. 

2. Shop Around

Different sportsbooks are going to have widely different odds available on ante-post bets.  The reason is that they know the sharps aren’t going to kill them with these bets as often because of the point above, the time value of money for professionals.  This means that books can intentionally set more attractive odds, and also to entice new visitors to deposit in their book in the hope they will lose over the course of the season. 

3. Know your sports

Ante-post betting suits some sports more than others. If you are looking for a long shot, then I have found that looking hard at the MLB and NFL pays off,  betting on teams to win the World Series or the Super Bowl or divisions or conferences.  The reason is that the play-off system is set up for upsets and the sport's administrators themselves promote level playing fields via salary caps, free agency and drafts. A team can go from nowhere to being in contention in a single season  I have found the NBA and college football to be more reliable from one year to the next.  In those two sports focus more on the favorites than long shots.

Domestically the chances of a big outsider coming to win the Premier League, the Six Nations or Cricket (say the World cup) is remote so often in these popular sports its not a case of looking for big turn-around stories but shorter prices and sub-markets. Similarly there are differences in other major sports. It's only in the last 18 months that a Grand Slam tennis winner hasn't been one of the big four for the first time in many years, but in Golf the depth of fields means big priced ante-post bets for the majors seem more feasible.

4. Variety sometimes isn't the spice of life

You also have to factor in more variables with ante-post betting.  Injuries, team selections, players leaving for other clubs can all play havoc with long term predictions. A team loses a quarterback or a star pitcher in week one? The selectors don't pick a player for most of an event? The transfer window sees the team's leading striker move on?

The result of these variables is of course higher variance, good returns at great prices when you do scoop, but the incidence of wins is fewer than your activity on a day to day basis

 

What else is on Betting Emporium?

Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here

Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)

All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 21st-22nd February

Posted on 16 Feb 2015 09:43 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, a full Premier League and football league programme 

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend featuring India against South Africa amongst the group stage action

- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle (including the Eider Chase, see below)

- Tennis, the ATP tour events are in Marseille, Rio and Delray Beach, Florida

- Golf, the European Tour's Hero Indian Open at the Delhi Golf Club and the USPGA Tour's Northern Trust Open at Pacific Palisades in California.


Free Tip of the Week     

This weekend Neil Channing looks at the Eider Chase at Newcastle (Saturday 2.55pm)

"The Eider Chase is the only perfect race tomorrow. There are currently 18 runners and so we could have a couple of non-runners and still get the four places which is what makes this so attractive from a betting perspective.
 
 A four mile race is usually going to be a massive slog particularly on heavy ground which you often get at Newcastle. The weather in the North-East has been pretty good though and as I write this the ground is Good/Soft and the forecast is for a nice sunny day. I'm going to rule out the real old sloggers like last year's winner Wyck Hill, who carries more weight here, and top weight Shotgun Paddy, who will both prefer soft ground. More reluctantly I'll eliminate Portrait King who stays all day but really would have liked a lot more rain.
 
 In the last ten runnings of this race the winner has carried eleven stone or more every single time, suggesting that the class horses get a chance to show their superiority over the trip and perhaps pounds per length are just not so important.
 
 Of the horses in that weight range we are left with just one if we stick to the recent trend. Knockanrawley has never been this far before but I reckon a bit of class might help and with the ground running faster it just won't be such a slog for old plodders. Many of the horses here really love soft ground and this one may have a bit of toe at the trip. The stable is in good form and I understand they quite fancy this.
 
 I'm having 10 Points each-way Knockanrawley at 12/1 in a couple of places in the Newcastle 2.55pm."

Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)

Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four

Winners at 40/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 6/1. Placed at 20/1, 18/1 (2nd and 3rd in same race), 16/1, 14/1, 7/1, 7/1, 6/1

Cheltenham 2013: 51 points profit, ROI +29.86% Three winnings days out of four

Winners at 7/1 and 11/2. Placed at 66/1 and 40/1 (2nd and 3rd same race), 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 15/2, 13/2, 5/1, 5/1

The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99

Sign up here


Betting Emporium are very excited to be hosting our first ever Cheltenham Preview Night

When: Saturday 7th March 2015 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)

Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ

Full details can be found HERE


Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through to May 21st 2015.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

Premier League Darts (full 16 week package) £99.99 Sign Up Here

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Watch Neil's videos with his free Cheltenham tips

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle Video 1

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Chase Video 2

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: World Hurdle Video 3

Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tips and get a FREE bet up to £100 as well

Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'

(If you've had your Sportingbet account restricted in the past we may be able to get you back in action there. Email support@bettingemporium.com)

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com
 

None of us can miss the adverts on the TV every day for Cashouts. They are offered to allow bettors to secure their profits or minimise their losses before the referee’s final whistle. Yet, by cashing out, we are effectively making bookmakers richer.

Let’s see why.

First a cash-out itself. Say a football game is going in our favour. We’ve backed Bradford to beat Sunderland, they are leading but we’re not sure they will hold on to the end. During the match we are able to take a profit earlier than full time by using the cash-out tool. Of course, we stand to make a bit less money than the full win by seeing it through to the end, assuming Bradford win.

On the contrary, if our team is struggling and is behind in the game we can now look to reduce our loss compared to the initial stake by cashing out. Again, the amount depends on the available odds at that time and obviously, we cannot save our whole bet.

The whole concept plays to the recreational bettor, watching the game live at home or following it on the move, it plays to recency of opinions and it plays to encouraging punters to use different and more immediate methods of betting, mobile and online in particular, and potentially therefore to higher account volumes. Over and above that, it alters betting psychology, away from optimal decision making.

Sport bettors are easily tempted by Cash Out. We’re impatient, we want to make a profit and we’ve all been scuppered by last minute equalisers or worse. The marketing sell is easy, and intuitive.

So, where is the catch?

Cash Out pays less than fair value.

The price of a “fair” Cash Out calculated by this formula:

((X*(Y-1)) – (X*(Z-1)))/Z

Where:

Χ = original stake

Υ = original starting odds

Ζ = final odds at Cash Out

Yet, the betting operator won’t offer this is due to “vig” or “juice”, which translates in profit margin for the bookmaker.

By taking “advantage” of the cash-out tool, the bettor effectively agrees betting on the two other likely outcomes of the game, besides their original selection. Thus, if they had bet on a home win originally, they are now betting on X2 by cashing out. As a result, they have bet on all possible outcomes.

However betting books are never priced at 100%. Cash-out leads bettors to place a second bet, with vig included at the new price, in the same game.

While originally the bettor placed a bet at theoretically –EV odds (over-round and vig ), they are now placing another bet under the same conditions. Yet, now the disadvantage is well concealed behind the attractiveness of Cash Out, either by securing a profit or minimising a loss.

The goal is to keep you entertained and happy while betting. If by offering you the cash-out tool, you are tempted spend more time and money on a betting platform then job done, and the “price” of doing so is not transparent to the recreational punter.  

Everyone can understand if people might feel that their financial position dictates that they must take the guaranteed winnings on a big potential return. Anyone who accidentally flicks onto Deal or No Deal will see far worse decision making than this within minutes! However on a single bet where people are using correct bankroll/staking management the correct long-run play for punters is never ever to cash in a bet. If you have to change view, lay the outcome yourself on an exchange at the "true" price which will be a smaller loss of EV than using the cash out button


What else is on Betting Emporium?

Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here

Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)

All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

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