Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th March
Looking ahead, it could well be that this column won’t have much sport to cover for a while, if so we will resume when normal service is restored.
Coming up this weekend
- Racing, over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and all-weather racing at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations, for now
Free tip
Australia v New Zealand 1nd ODI Sydney Saturday 11.30pm start
After their trip to South Africa, where they lost an ODI series 3-0 Australia now play New Zealand in a three match ODI series. This is the latest finish to an international season in Australia outside World Cups since 1979 and the Australians did look fatigued In South Africa which has attracted criticism of these as “token games”. New Zealand recently completed a clean sweep in the ODI and Test series against India.
The first two games are at the SCG, Sydney, first on Friday night followed closely by this match the day after. Australia won Friday night’s game by 71 runs
We backed Labuschagne at 6-1 in a place, 5/1 elsewhere in the 3rd ODI last weekend and he is still available at 5/1 with Bet365 and Corals here.
A reminder on Labuschagne who scored 108 off 108 balls to top score in that match. As in Test cricket, Labuschagne looked equally comfortable against pace or spin, pierced the gaps expertly, ran hard between wickets, and picked the correct moments to attack or defend.
It was not a spectacular ODI innings. Australia won’t get many of those out of Labuschagne or Smith. Achieving the spectacular will be left to the likes of Warner, Finch and Maxwell. Instead it was an assured and well-paced knock, the kind that acts as the backbone of a team innings.
In the first ODI overnight on Friday Labuschagne scored 56 behind Warner 67 and Finch 60 but still well in the hunt in this market. 5/1 continues to be a value play that we should take advantage of for as long as the price persists, I expect it won’t do for many matches more for a player who is fast becoming indispensable for Australia in all formats
10 points Marcu Labuschagne 2nd ODI Top Australian batsman 5/1 Bet365 and Coral
Homegrown
The off-season summer transfer window contains an added factor this August. There is currently no agreement between the FA and the Premier League on what 25-man club squads will look like post-Brexit when the transition period ends on December 31st.
The FA wants to raise the number of homegrown players in a squad from its existing level of eight to 12, with no work-permit restrictions on the other 13. The Premier League wants to stay with 8 and have the freedom to sign the remainder from wherever they wish to do so.
The FA has the governing body’s endorsement, from which the government will take its lead. The Premier League pays the players, invests heavily in developing the homegrown talent and operates the competition in which all but one of Gareth Southgate’s current squad plays every week. Both recognise that Brexit is a historic moment for the most lucrative domestic sport league in the world and the England national team..
There has to be an approach that rewards some of the richest clubs in the world for developing English talent. Premier League chief executive Richard Masters has called for a “dynamic” solution, one that “can’t just be about quotas,” of overseas players permitted in a 25-man squad where every signing from outside the UK has to be assessed individually for their own work-permit viability. The answer will have to come from a compromise which recognises that what matters are game-time minutes for England qualified players.
Master acknowledged that a strong England team is desirable to the Premier League, and that the new system should be flexible. His opposite number at the FA, Mark Bullingham, also a recent appointment, is obliged to seize this opportunity to protect the future of the England team, on whose success or otherwise he will primarily be judged.
The percentage of total minutes played in the Premier League by England-qualified players so far this season is just over 34%, up from the all-time low of 30% last season. The corresponding figure for this season among the big six clubs falls to 27%. The change has largely been driven by Chelsea’s transfer window embargo in the summer which forced them to play academy graduates, and the faith shown in English players by the three promoted clubs, Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa.
In Spain the national team manager can choose from a league that has 60% Spain-qualified players. In France it is 50% and Italy and Germany both have more than 40%.
The government relies on the view of the FA as the governing body over the Premier League, which may well have to adapt to new rules that oblige all of them to give opportunities to the players coming out of the academies.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Racing, over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the Six Nations
- Golf, The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and the Doha Classic
- Tennis, The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells next week
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing next week for £199 here
Free tip
South Africa v Australia 3rd ODI in Potchefstroom, 8am GMT start on Saturday
The third and final ODI in this series takes place tomorrow. South Africa are 2-0 up in the series. In the first match in Paarl South Africa defended 291 comfortably, with a Klaasen hundred in their innings. In Wednesday’s second game in Bloemfontein South Africa chased down 271 with a Malan hundred opening the innings. For a South African side that has lacked batting depth and is in a rebuilding phase, these are two potentially significant hundreds.
The South African side in this series is stronger than the side that drew recently against England
SA side stronger than side drew England particularly in the bowling ranks with Ngidi and Nortje and potentially Rabada available. Nevertheless it is unexpected to see them 2-0 up against a full strength Australian side with Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood bowling and a batting line up of Warner, Finch, Smith, Labuschagne, with Carey and Short in the side to be finishers an area post Maxwell they have had problems with.
In Potchefstroom on Saturday we should once again expect a blameless pitch and a reasonably high scoring game. In the Top Australian batsman market its no surprise to see Smith and Warner, followed by Finch at the head of affairs each at 3-1 or shorter, a combination of Smith and Warner’s class and the position of all three in the top of the order.
The value here though could be Marcus Labuschagne, available at 6/1 with Corals and 5/1 with Bet365.25 year old Labuschagne was introduced to international cricket in 2018 was then added to the Australian test side again during last Ashes series with Smith’s injury and has been a fixture in the test side ever since. In 14 tests he has 1459 runs at an average of 63. In his last nine tests he has 4 hundreds and 7 fifties and this form saw him introduced into the ODI side in the early 2020 tour of India where he scored a fifty and scored 46,56 and 41 in his three innings. So far against South Africa he scored 41 in Paarl and in the second game, a golden duck, a rare failure for a very consistent player.
He is a sporting alternative to those top of the market here at 6/1
10 points Marcus Labuschagne Top Australian batsman 3rd ODI at 6/1 Coral, 5/1 Bet365
A matter of deduction
Manchester City are now facing a Premier League points deduction as their punishment for “serious breaches” of Uefa Financial Fair Play also represents a breach of the domestic competition’s regulations.
City are ready facing the sanction of a two year Champions League ban and a €30m fine after Uefa found the club had overstated its sponsorship revenue in accounts submitted between 2012 and 2016. The potential domestic issue comes because any club has to supply true information to get a Premier League licence, and that information will have had to have matched that supplied to Uefa.
While there remains the possibility a high-priced legal battle could yet see the Champions League ban overturned, that probably won’t be the case with any Premier League punishment due to the specific situation. A points deduction would not affect any title race or see them relegated, while the Champions League race has been temporarily rendered moot.
While no one sees an expulsion from the Premier League as likely, the Football League have recently changed their rules so that any club in that situation must start again in League Two.
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English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th Feb - 1st March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Everton v Manchester United
- Racing, over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and all-weather racing at Lingfield and Southwell
- Golf, On the USPGA The Honda Classic and on the European Tour the Honda Open
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brazil, Chile and Dubai
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing for £199 here
Free tip
Fa Cup 5th Round Tuesday 3rd March
This year the fifth round of the FA Cup moves to a midweek, and with no replays.
The West Brom v Newcastle tie throws up an opportunity. West Brom are very marginal favourites at home here. Under Bilic West Brom are top of the Championship, have lost only 4 times in 35 league games and have scored 64 times in 35 games. A well organised side with some real quality they probably should be favourites against this Newcastle side. Newcastle needed a replay and extra time to get past Oxford in the last round, a piece of individual brilliance from Saint-Maximin took them through.
We all know the issues around the club, now 14th in the Premier League. They have only scored 24 goals in 27 games, with Joelinton not suiting the position he is played in as a lone striker through the middle.
The game is sandwiched between a home game against Burnley and a trip to Southampton, and I would expect rotation here with league points very much the priority. West Brom meanwhile are nine points clear of Fulham in third in the Championship with eleven games to go. A deep run in the Cup moves forward on the agenda with their league position so healthy.
10 points West Brom to beat Newcastle 17/10 Sportingbet, 13/8 BetfairSportsbook, 8/5 Betfred, Ladbrokes/Coral
F1 in 2020
The 2021 season will see the next major shake-up of F1’s regulations which often means in such seasons that a driver from the team that gets on top of the new regulations quickest will come out on top that season. In 2020 it was previously considered that with the cars likely to be subtle evolutions of their 2019 predecessors we should have anticipated a real driver-focused battle for the championship as a new generation of star drivers and veterans in Hamilton and Vettel with ten combined championships are in the leading three teams.
As it stands the Mercedes technological evolution of a DAS (Dual-Axis Steering) system which allows a driver to change the ‘toe angle’ of the front wheels into corners and on the straights by pushing and pulling on the steering wheel, rather than just moving it sideways is being viewed as a potential game-changer for this season. How quickly rivals might be able to copy it and whether they might protest after the opening race remain lively topics of conversation.
All three of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull showed in the latter half of 2019 that they could win races, with five out of the six drivers from those teams taking victories in that period. With the prospect of another in-team Ferrari battle between LeClerc and Vettel likely in a car that was excellent but erratic last season and Verstappen becoming a consistent winner there is at least a realistic prospect of a two or more driver battle for the drivers’ championship, forcing a title decider at the finale in Abu Dhabi for the first time since 2016.
By mid-season 2020 driver market could be very entertaining. Sebastian Vettel’s contract is up at the end of the season at Ferrari. So too is Max Verstappen’s at Red Bull, as well as both Hamilton’s and Bottas’ at Mercedes. In fact, the futures of just three drivers – Esteban Ocon, Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez – are set in stone beyond the end of 2020. The arrival of the 2021 regulations, then, could bring some potentially fascinating driver changes with them as well, as well as furthering existing rumours of Mercedes’ future in the sport.
Below the top tier of drivers it will be a season in which the likes of George Russell, Lando Norris and Alex Albon develop further. Norris and Albon should find themselves on podiums through the season.
Meanwhile the season sees a first time visit to Vietnam and a return to the Dutch coastal track of Zandvoort whilst already the China GP has been postponed due to the coronavirus.
Part sport, part soap-opera, 2020 sets up to be a controversial season.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Tottenham
- Racing, over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations
- Golf, The WGC-Mexico Championship
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brazil, Chile and Dubai
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing for £199 here
Free tip
The Democratic Presidential Nomination by Neil Channing
I'm having 44 Points WIN Bernie Sanders to get the Democratic Nomination at Evens with a couple of firms but mainly on the Betfair exchange where there is currently over £30,000 waiting for us.
Comeback
Through three quarters of the Superbowl the Chiefs had been outgained in yards 292–206 by the 49ers. After each team had a series in the fourth quarter, and Kansas City took over at its own 17 with 8:53 left, that count was 314–237.
San Franciso’s vaunted rookie pass rusher Nick Bosa was leading a defensive line that was get ing the better of the Chiefs. Jimmy Garoppolo had outplayed Patrick Mahomes. Up 20–10, the Niners were in great shape.
After a review overturned a Tyreek Hill catch on a second down with 7:13 left, the Chiefs found themselves in third-and-15 the critical play of the game. The Chiefs repeated an unsuccessful play from the second quarter. This time Hill caught the pass for 44 yards and a first down, the start of three offensive series during which the Chiefs gained 175 yards and three touchdowns to turn a 20-10 deficit into a 31-20 win
The Chiefs overcame at least 10-point deficits in all three of their playoff games to win by at least 10 points. That's the benefit of having a nuclear weapon at quarterback. This season alone Mahomes was 5-0 when trailing by double digits. In his Hall of fame career to make a comparison Kurt Warner was 2-44 when his team trailed by double digits.
It looks like we have seen the development of the next long term league superstar in Patrick Mahomes’ first two years in the league.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United on Monday Night Football
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and all-weather racing at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Golf, on the USPGA the Genesis Invitational tournament
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Buenos Aires, New York and Rottterdam
- Cricket, the final T20 International between South Africa and England in Centurion
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing for £199 here
Free tip
South Africa v England 3rd T20 Centurion 12.30pm Sunday
After winning the 50-over World Cup last July, England will look to become the first men's side to hold both global limited-overs trophies simultaneously at the T20 World Cup in Australia in October and November.
England’s tour of South Africa concludes on Sunday with the third and final T20 at Centurion. England lost the T20 in unfortunate circumstances by 1 run, losing 4 wickets for five runs at the end of the match when they looked set to win. I am writing ahead of the second T20 on Friday in Durban.
England’s problem in East London in the first game was really one of balance. With Buttler moved to open, breaking up the Roy-Bairstow opening partnership, the side was left short of finishers lower down the order with only Stokes batting at six an effective option in an era where sides tend to look for fast starts and pack their batting order with big hitters down the order.
My interest here is once again looking at Temba Bavuma, who opened the batting for South Africa in the first game alongside Quinton De Kock and top scored with 43 off 27 balls. The angle here is basically a value one. For the second T20i De Kock is favourite in the Top South Africa batsman market at sub 2-1, which is reasonable enough for their most effective batsman in the format in a line up not full of depth. Bavuma can be backed at 100/30.
Beyond those two the South African batting order features Van Der Dussen at 3, Miller at 4, Smuts at 5 and then a series of all-rounders. Van Der Dussen has played nine T20 internationals, two scores above fifty, Smuts has also played nine, top score 45 and Miller is a veteran of 73 T20 internationals usually batting 5 or 6 and has two scores over 50.
Bavuma himself is an inexperienced T20 international cricketer, this will be his fifth match but even if you look at De Kock’s record in the format, its clear that he doesn’t have an insurmountable task to top score. De Kock averages 30 in 39 internationals with only 5 scores about 50.
Let’s try Bavuma again
10 points Temba Bavuma Top South African batsman 3rd T20I Sunday at centurion at 4/1 with Betfred (3/1 elsewhere which is the price you'd expect to see)
Go for it
In the 2019 NFL regular season teams went for it on fourth down-and-2 35% of the time and 53% of the time on fourth-and-1. In 2018, teams went for it on 24% of their fourth-and-2s during the same span. Fifteen years ago teams went for it on fourth-and-2 only 16 % of the time and from that pont on, due to a national discussion that took place after some high profile decisions by big name coaches in big names, many teams started to consult on decision-making analytics.
One metric called “win probability forfeited,” shows how often teams cost themselves an edge in the game by needlessly punting. NFL teams are forfeiting about half of what they did a decade ago, The league has changed dramatically and there’s still more room to go. In short, fourth down is increasingly an offensive down.
These days the New York Times runs a feature called “Fourth down bot” utilising analytical models and it offers some interesting rule of thumbs for fourth down. These include:
On fourth-and-1, go for it anywhere on the field from your own 9 yard line or better.
On fourth-and-2, go for it everywhere beyond your 28-yard line.
On fourth-and-3, go for it almost everywhere beyond your 40.
This, of course, is far too aggressive for NFL coaches who often cannot countenance handing their opponent’s offense such a short field would mean guaranteed points in many cases.
The use of 4th down in the NFL took a leap forward because of the Philadelphia Eagles under Pederson in the superbowl winning season including the “Philly Special” itself in the superbowl . In that 20176 season the Eagles broke the NFL record for fourth-down attempts in a season Multiple teams now have an analyst advising coaches when to go for it on fourth down or for two-point conversions.
In 2019 Jim Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens took it to the next level with offensive players on over 75% of their 4th downs, advised in game by an analytics team into the ear of the coach of the sideline.
Purely by the numbers most NFL teams are still too conservative, that said next season the upwards trend of going for it, less punting and greater reliance on ever more sophisticated data and modelling is likely to continue
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
