Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28-29th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Chelsea v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Autumn Nations Cup
- Formula One, The Bahrain Grand Prix
- Cricket, the Second T20I between South Africa and England in Paarl
- Golf, on the PGA Tour the Bermuda Championship and on the European Tour the Cyprus Open.
Free tip
Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Group A Wales v England 4pm Saturday
This game will be played in Llanelli, which I begin with as it is a significant difference to playing in a packed-out Principality Stadium for this Welsh team, especially against England.
England beat Ireland 18-7 last Saturday. They defended well, they kicked a lot and in the second half when England had established a decisive advantage, they did not get out of third gear in terms of attacking because they were just determined to put pressure on their opponent. England made 255 tackles in the game compared to Ireland's 84.
Wales rested most of their first choice side and beat Georgia for their first win in seven games. Here of course their major challenges are going to re-emerge. Can they compete up front (they have selected their strongest scrummaging front five)? What are their plans in attack (appear to lack midfield options in particular)? Can they pressure England sufficiently? I doubt it.
England are 15 point favourites here, and Wales 7/1 outright. If England are able to change gears and produce a more rounded game, it’s probable they will win well. Instead their pragmatic style full of kicking (selecting both Ford and Farrell points to a territory led game) and pressure from defence means the winning margin is likely to be slimmer than under a more expansive approach, albeit at far lower risk.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 9/4 with Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 with PaddyPower, 11/5 Betfred
27 Days later
Under a month after Exeter achieved the domestic and European double by winning the Gallagher Premiership Final last weekend the new season got under way.
Exeter of course are favourites to repeat their win with a squad containing the depth to withstand the International and injury absences of Jack Nowell, Stuart Hogg, Jonny Hill and Henry Slade in part because of a consistent approach and low error rugby and in part because class players such as Joe and Sam Simmonds are not international regulars at this point so available every week.
Wasps, Bristol and Bath completed the top four last season, Bristol in particular displaying an exciting attacking style. Sale would have challenged them for a play-off place had they not had a number of COVID cases at the club leading them to forfeit their final match of the season.
At the other end of the table, Leicester and London Irish finished 11th and 10th respectively last season and their first priority, probably alongside Worcester and Newcastle, will be safety.
Former England assistant coach Steve Borthwick is now the Leicester first-team as head coach. For London Irish, they take up tenancy at Brentford's Community Stadium after 20 years at Reading's Madejski Stadium.
Saracens were relegated for breaches of the salary cap and their Championship season begins in January. It will be a Premiership season without star players such as England captain Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Billy and Mako Vunipola , Elliot Daly and Jamie George.which is inopportune timing from a marketing viewpoint for a domestic game dealing with financial losses from no gate revenue.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Liverpool v Leicester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Autumn Championship
- Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals
- Golf, on the PGA Tour the RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort and on the European Tour the Joburg Open.
Free tip
Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Group A England v Ireland Saturday 3pm.
In the opening game of the competition Ireland beat Wales 32-9. They dominated a disappointing Welsh pack up front and squeezed their opponents in the manner we have become accustomed to seeing. The win came with a downside though as both fly-halves Jonathan Sexton and debutant replacement Billy Burns hobbled off. Sexton and centre Robbie Henshaw are out of this weekend’s game though Iain Henderson and Jacob Stockdale could feature from the bench.
In Dublin Ireland again showed an inability to react to the unexpected and were wasteful in possession, though clearly are trying to play a less structured game than they did in the Joe Schmidt era. They look happy to try things, to offload here and there and see where it takes them, but its early days for this change in style.
England meanwhile conducted a professional six try whitewash of Georgia showing impressive forward power against their renowned scrummaging opponents. In February England beat Ireland 24-12 in Round 2 of the Six Nations. It’s tempting to see England as a stronger side now than then, especially as they appear to have selected their strongest possible side. Mako Vunipola and Kyle Sinckler are the starting props while Tom Curry and Sam Underhill come onto the flanks. In a positional change, Maro Itoje moves back to the second row from blindside.
Irealand meanwhile minus Sexton are a bit weaker than February in terms of available players except that with Ireland we know that they will be competitive up front and in the likes of O’Mahoney and Stander they have real battlers behind them. It is difficult to see Ireland cutting England open too much. Meanwhile England who only scored 18 tries in 14 Tests v Ireland from 2006-2017 have scored 18 tries 18 in 4 fixtures since 2018
England are -12 on the handicap which weather permitting I think they can exceed. A win by 2-3 scores seems most likely to me
Most effectively done by half stakes (5 points each) England to win by 11-15 and 16-20 points each at 11/2 with Betfred, or
10 points England to win by 11-20 points at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power.
Flowering
A sixth bottom-half Six Nations finish in seven years may not indicate much progress for Scotland in 2020ble but a sign of the progress they have made since their early exit from the 2019 World Cup is that their win over Wales in Llanelli to end the tournament meant that they had recorded three successive victories in a Six Nations campaign for the first time.
They started the Six Nations in February with a defeat in Dublin after Stuart Hogg dropped the ball in the act of scoring and then came a close second to England in terrible conditions in Murrayfield Scotland’s head coach, Gregor Townsend, was under pressure for the first time since taking over in 2017 and had dropped one of his few world class players, fly half Finn Russell, for disciplinary reasons.
The form at the back end of the Six Nations might not put them in the same territory as England and France but in the just started Autumn Nations Cup they will have home advantage against the French, the fixture that should decide who finishes first in the group. With Russell back into the fold when fit there is reason for more optimism but even more encouragingly this week Scotland’s forwards were described as “the best pack Scotland have had since the 84/90 Grand Slams” which for an outfight frequently regarded as lightweight up front is a big difference. Now they have a front five that compete with the big sides, a top class openside in Hamish Watson for the breakdowns and the fast developing Jamie Ritchie at 6.
Eyes on outright prices for the 2021 Six Nations maybe…
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby
- Football, the International break including Nations League and European Championship Qualifying matches
- Rugby Union, the first weekend of the Autumn Championship
- Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals Doubles
- Golf, the Masters continues at Augusta.
- Formula One, the Turkish Grand Prix
Free tip
Autumn Nations Cup Rugby, Ireland v Wales Friday 7.45pm
The Autumn Nations Cup is being held place of the usual Autumn Internationals series typically held in the same period each year, as many teams are avoiding extended travel due to COVID-19. Eight teams will participate – the teams involved in the Six Nations plus Georgia and Fiji divided into two groups of four.
Each team will play the others in its group once to determine the final group standings; the teams in first place in each group will then play each other, as will the teams in second, third and fourth, to determine the overall standings. The tournament opens with a match between Ireland and Wales in Dublin on Friday night.
Ireland and Wales met at the same venue in the Six Nations back in February, Ireland winning 24-14. Ireland went on to finish 3rd in the Championship, a last game loss in Paris ending their hopes of the Championship. Wales meanwhile have now lost 5 matches on the spin, including in Llanelli to Scotland in a drab encounter over the last weekend of the Six Nations.
Ireland are transitioning from coach Joe Schmidt to Andy Farrell, and by no means the finished article and in the first year of a new World cup cycle have been introducing younger talent. This largely started in the back line but there is the beginnings of a changing of the guard up front too. The squad here is largely similar to the one that missed out on the Six Nations title in October, with Tadhg Furlong, Ryan Baird, Dave Kilcoyne, Garry Ringrose, Jordan Larmour and Will Addison not considered because of injury.
Wales have some decisions to make. Is this a full rebuild situation, or should it be? Removing the defence coach five days before this competition doesn’t inspire too much confidence. Both that coach and Wayne Pivac succeeded two coaches who were synonymous with the Welsh side of the previous decade in Gatland and Edwards. The Gatland style didn’t come with too many bells and whistles, based on low risk, rock-solid defence and levels of physicality that allowed Wales to beat Australia, South Africa, England and Ireland within the space of five months during Gatland’s final year.
By contrast the Scarlets under Pivac played expansive rugby with the opposition under threat from anywhere on the field. Skill levels were high and risks routinely taken. It’s taking the national team time to change the style and that becomes more difficult with results poor. Wales look underpowered up front and their attacking game unconvincing. There is only one change from the Scotland defeat, Tipuric is back, but its likely to be more of the same from recent games.
Whilst Ireland aren’t wholly convincing in attack and have made a few line up changes resting some experienced players they at least seem to be moving in the same direction as a squad, and ahead of Wales where I suspect confidence is low and there is some upheaval ahead.
I expect Ireland to win by up to two scores, and turn to the Winning margin market for better value that Ireland -9 on the point spread
10 points Ireland to win by 1-12 points at 7/4 Betfred, 13/8 with Betfair Sportsbook , 6/4 PaddyPower
Specialists
Cricket has three different formats all run by the same governing body.
Tests not involving one of Australia, England or India lose boards in the region of £500,000 each. Many one-day internationals and Twenty20s between less well supported Test playing sides also lose money. Most domestic T20 leagues also lose money.
Besides revenue they receive from the International Cricket Council, there is only one way for teams to be profitable and that is to host a tour by one of the Big Three sides and boards plan their entire four-year cycles around these. The proceeds of selling these matches to broadcasters dictate what other fixtures boards can afford to stage and when.
Recently there have been some indications of the big sides beginning to specialise. Australia announced that they will play a T20 series in New Zealand next February while simultaneously contesting a Test series in South Africa. Meanwhile England may play a T20 series in Pakistan second series in January, which is likely to take place while England are in Sri Lanka for a two-match Test series. Leading countries can no longer be sustained by one group of players. Cricket is in an age of growing player specialisation.
All bar a small number of elite cricketers, able to move between formats with minimal acclimatisation period, risk being left behind by the relentless demands the schedule imposes on all three formats. While separate national teams on tour in different countries at the same time is being justified as an emergency solution to aid ailing finances, it is accelerating what is already happening in the sport.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Doncaster and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool. The FA Cup First Round
- Tennis, ATP Sofia Open
- Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA and the Cyprus Showdown on the European Tour.
- Cricket, the IPL play-offs
Free tip
FA Cup first round Boreham Wood v Southend United
Borehamwood were 5th in the National League last season and five games into this one are 12th with two wins and a draw. In terms of a draw against a league side, a home tie against the side bottom of Division two is as good as it gets.
Southend United survived their latest HMRC winding up order last week. Last season they were relegated from League one with 4 wins in 35 games, sacked Sol Campbell at season end and so far this season have two draws, no wins, in ten games having scored just five goals and conceded 22. With matters so uncertain off the field, there has been a persistent recent history of late paying staff and players for example, Mark Molesey the former Weymouth manager was appointed on a three year contract to what undoubtedly is a very tough job.
When looking at the first round ties and compiling a short-list of possible bets with prices up early in the week I trawl the local press for a sense of performances and progress if any. Here’s a comment from Southend that was typical after another defeat last Saturday
“More evidence of how far behind we are in this League, it's desperate now. We make basic errors, we lack confidence and we are devoid of any real quality. We also have zero goal threat. Two points from seven League games in October says it all.”
In terms of prices, Borehamwood are available at either side of odds against for the game. It looked a stand out bet from the 40 first round ties
10 points Borehamwood to beat Southend at Evens Bet365, 19/20 elsewhere
The 2021 Big Bash
The maximum number of overseas players allowed in a Big Bash team has been increased to three.
Until now, clubs have been permitted to field two at a time, with opposition from the Australian Cricketers’ Association against an increase previously centred around the impact on local players who would miss out.
However, with inflated Test squads likely due to necessities related to the coronavirus pandemic, the addition of a third overseas slot help with availability issues for domestic players.
Meanwhile batsman Steve Smith has ruled out participating in the Big Bash League this season, saying that continuing to play in bio-secure bubbles amid the COVID-19 pandemic will take a toll on his mental health.
Smith has already experienced life in different bubbles, first when the Australian T20 squad toured England and now with the Rajasthan Royals in the ongoing IPL which is being played in the United Arab Emirates.
The Big Bash League is set to start in December and run till February, with Australia’s national-team players expected to play for their domestic sides in the latter stages after India’s tour of Australia which will also be played in bio-secure bubbles.
"I'll be honest with you, absolutely no chance," Smith was quoted as saying “There’s an uncertainty there. It’s just going to be about having open conversations with coaches, general managers, whoever, to ensure that people are keeping their head space in a reasonable place
In terms of English players Jason Roy became the latest player to sign up as an overseas player, following Liam Livingstone in joining Perth Scorchers. Dawid Malan, meanwhile, will represent Hobart Hurricanes, with Alex Hales, Tom Banton and Tom Curran at Sydney Thunder, Brisbane Heat and Sydney Sixers respectively.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st October -1st November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Newmarket and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Arsenal
- Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters
- Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA and the Cyprus Open on the European Tour.
- Formula One, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola
- Rugby Union, the final games of the 2020 Six Nations
- Cricket, the IPL continues
Free tip
Neil Channing, the US election
It's very nearly time for the thing we've been talking about all year so I guess we should have a bet on it. It's not the Sports Personality of the Year but the US election where I have had a few bets and I have quite strong views. Firstly I should start by saying, that as with all political bets, my political views will not be a factor and I will only consider what I think about the prices and the value. I actually dislike both the major American parties enormously and think they would have struggled to pick two worst candidates but that shouldn't concern us.
For those who don't follow it carefully US elections are a series of 51 contests settled on a first past the post system...if you get most votes in North Dakota you win North Dakota. The states all carry points or "Electoral College Votes" so the ones with bigger populations are worth more. North Dakota is worth just three ECVs which is the minimum and California gets the maximum of 55. This system gives a slight advantage to candidates who do well in rural areas with small populations which is why Donald Trump is president despite getting millions of votes less than Hillary Clinton.
Bookmakers are offering bets on every state but many, like North Dakota, are very one sided...the Repulblicans are 1/50 in that one. We cannot link up all those heavy odds on chances in multiples as they are heavily correlated. If we knew that the Republicans had won the very hard to predict state of Florida then they will probably have had a good night and won Texas so you can't do a double the two. That makes it quite hard to find bets at prices bigger than 1/3 that have a good chance of winning. There are just six states where neither party is 1/3 or shorter and some, like Florida, are really hard to predict.
Another factor we must consider when betting is not really emphasised enough by the media in my opinion.
This election starts on Tuesday is something you'll hear and while that is polling day, many states have early voting and all give you the chance to use an absentee ballot. With a global pandemic, and the thought of queueing for five or six hours to vote, many more people will take these options this time round and they have been for over a week now. This is very much an "in-running" betting event and 79 million people, which is 57% of the people who voted in 2016, have already done their vote. A lot of media people will talk about stuff Trump says in the last few days and how that might swing things but for most people it's too late now and they have made their decision.
The state I want to bet on is Iowa. This state voted Republican throughout the 70s under Nixon, Ford and Reagan but it switched to the Democrats in 1988 when it voted for Michael Dukakis and it stuck with them under Bill Clinton both times and then Al Gore. George W Bush won by just under 0.7% in 2004 before Obama turned it blue again with two comfortable wins. It looks to me like Trump beating Hillary by 10% here was against the trend of the political allegiance of this state. She lost here, as in many other places, by not getting out her vote. Normally around 1.5 million people vote in this state but she only got 653,000 which is how many Al Gore won with when the total number voting was under 1.3 million. As of yesterday 851,000 people had already voted here so it looks like turnout will be well up.
In polling this year Trump won in 29 and Biden 6 carried out between January and September. In October though there have been 17 polls and Biden has won in eight, Trump in seven and two ties. The biggest leads have been Biden by four and Trump by seven. The analyst Nate Silver makes it the closest state that Trump will win and predicts 49.7% to Trump and 49% to Biden. I think he's definitely right that it will be close.
The early voting sees a lead of 47.9 vs 32.5 to Biden amongst voters who are registered as supporters of either party that have already voted. That is to say that 407,000 of the people who have already voted are known Democrats while 276,000 are known Republicans. 163,000 people that have voted are not known to be aligned to one party or the other and they are 19% of those that have already voted. It's hard to predict where they will go but I think we can assume a close split betwen them as this is a close state. What we do know is that Republican voters are way more likely to wait until the day and Democrats are much more likely to vote early. This is a 400 metre race where we are yet to see the staggered start unwind. It's definitely hard to predict this race but the one thing we can be sure of is that it will be really close.
In the nationwide betting on who will be president Biden is 1/2 despite polls suggesting that a price of 1/5 or shorter might be more accurate. National polling doesn't account for the key local races which might be closer and it's true that Biden could pile up "wasted" votes in California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey while losing places like Iowa, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina by small margins. If the national polling is even slightly more uniform though there is the potential for a really big landslide win and in that situation he would win Iowa.
The betting has this one at roughly 57/43 on exchanges and the bookies are 60/40 in places. It just seems like a coinflip to me.
I'm having 16 Points Democrats to win Iowa at 6/4 with Betfred and Sky Bet (would happily take 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and Ladbrokes).
The 2021 Cricket Programme
The First-Class Counties have agreed to a revised structure for the 2021 men’s first-class season with the return of the County Championship in a group-stage format. The men’s first-class season ends with a five-day Lord’s final to win the Bob Willis Trophy.
Essex will seek to defend both titles after the county won the 2019 County Championship and this summer’s Bob Willis Trophy final at Lord’s.
This follows discussions between the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) and First-Class Counties to help restart the County Championship, whilst mitigating against the impact of COVID-19 next summer. The agreed revised structure is for the 2021 men’s first-class season only. The 18 First-Class Counties will play 14 County Championship matches each next summer across Group and Division stages.
Each First-Class County has initially been placed into one of three seeded groups of six and will be scheduled to play five home matches and five away matches during the Group stage.
The top two counties in each group, at the end of the Group stage, will progress to Division One, with the other counties moving into Divisions Two and Three, where they will each play a further four matches.
The winner of Division One will be crowned the 2021 County Championship winners.
The top two teams in Division One will also earn the right to play in the Bob Willis Trophy final at Lord’s.
Seedings for the Group Stage of the 2021 County Championship have been determined based on performances of the First-Class Counties during the 2019 County Championship and the 2020 Bob Willis Trophy.
A provision to accommodate derby matches, only where appropriate within the seeding structure, into the groups has also ensured that county members and supporters can look forward to some of county cricket’s oldest rivalries resuming home and away next summer.
2021 County Championship groups
Group 1: Essex, Warwickshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Worcestershire, Durham
Group 2: Somerset, Hampshire, Surrey, Gloucestershire, Middlesex, Leicestershire
Group 3: Kent, Yorkshire, Lancashire, Northamptonshire, Glamorgan, Sussex
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
