Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Boxing Day-28th December

Posted on 21 Dec 2014 10:09 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Week 17. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections £25 Sign Up Here. The final week of the regular season, with the play-off match-ups being decided in the matches on Sunday night.

- The Premier League Christmas schedule sees plenty of betting opportunities with a full slate of games on both Boxing Day and Sunday 28th

- Racing, with no less than eight National Hunt Meetings across the country on Boxing Day headed by the King George meeting at Kempton followed by the Welsh Grand National fixture at Cepstow on Saturday.

- Darts, the PDC World Championship with second round matches at Alexandra Palace resuming on Saturday 27th.

- Cricket, Test matches ongoing over Christmas in Melbourne (Australia v India), Port Elizabeth (South Africa v West Indies) and Christchurch (New Zealand v Sri Lanka).


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published last week and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley are being published during the event, and Nigel has had a good start to the event on Betting Emporium. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package)

£49.99 Sign Up Here


Free Tip of the Week   

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10 Kempton)

"So there are six real contenders in this year's highlight of Christmas and one or two bookies are giving us a nice present in the shape of 1/4 odds for each-way bets. We Can safely rule out doubtful styers and out of their class Wonderful Charm, Wishfull Thinking, John's Spirit and Double Ross.
 
 Of the six who can win the King George at 3.10 on Boxing Day we have further doubtful stayers in Al Ferof, Cue Card, Champagne Fever and Menorah, but with all four of those we know they can win a Grade 1 and on this drying ground with a forgiving flat track like Kempton they may get away with the stamina issues they have. In fact too much stamina is what puts me off Silviniaco Conti a horse that wants a proper slog to bring his stamina into play, I'm going to rule out Al Ferof on the basis that he is stepping up both in class and trip and time may tell that his recent Ascot victory didn't mean that much. Would not be surprised to see him come 3rd. Menorah is a horse I have followed over a cliff in recent years, since his Arkle run behind Sprinter Sacre when I had chunks on. His jumping has often been a problem and that seems less of an issue these days. He will like the track and the ground should suit but he may get outstayed and outbattled at the end.
 
 Champagne Fever is a potentially great horse. It's a bit of a mystery how he was beaten in the Arkle. I'm not going to get involved here at these prices though. He has way the biggest stamina doubt of these and the Mullin's chaser form in England puts me off at this price.
 
 There are two I like each-way and I'm going to bet both as the place terms are so juicy.
 
 Dynaste had a physical problem when he got beaten in this race last year as the joint favourite, he then won the Ryanair over a lesser trip than this at the festival before finsihing close to Conti both at Aintree last year and on his reappearance in the Betfair Chase this year. He's won on the course and over the trip, he is versatile on ground, jumps well and is just solid. Hard to see him not giving us a run and being in the first three or four and certainly has the class to win.
 
 Cue Card was also joint favourite for this last year. He looked odds-on to win before being outstayed. This year he came back and ran poorly in the Haldon Gold Cup when the trainer had suggested he might need the run. More disappointing was the Betfair Chase run when he went off favourite. I do think that Daryl Jacob is a better rider than Joe Tizzard was and last year's defeat may have been partly due to a misjudgement of pace but we know the horse stays the trip and likes the track and I do think the stable form is a lot better now. Colin Tizzard is essentially a dairy farmer who trains a few horses and they do seem to go in streaks when he is focussed on them. I think with this horse they'll have it at it's best here.
 
 I'm having 10 Points each-way Dynaste at 8/1 1/4 123 with Hills, Sportingbet, Betfred and Bet365.
 
 I'm having 13 Points each-way Cue Card at 13/2 1/4 123 with many firms (you can get 7/1 if you are quick).
 
 Hopefully these two will pay for Christmas. Have a good one."
 

 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

 


A Quick look at NFL Total Betting

In one of Saturday night's NFL recommendations Neil said "The total here opened 50.5 and it's currently 50. 51 is a massively "key number" in NFL totals, it is twice as likely as 50 so we need to make sure we are the right side of that."

In that game, Eagles at Redskins, the match finished 27-24 for a line of 51 points, and his "overs" bet at 50.5 landed.

This prompted me to have a look at key numbers, and some of the data behind the numbers that Neil uses.

The basics:

Offering lines on NFL totals give the bookmaker a chance to offer another point spread opportunity to collect more vig, as well as give sports bettors another opportunity to beat the house. A betting total is set on the number of points both teams figure to score in one said contest. An average total in the NFL is around 37, in fact about 5% of all NFL games land on this number, making the number 37 a very important number to be around. If you like a game under you will want to try and play it at 37 or 37.5 rather than 36.5, just as if you like a game over you would want to play at 36.5 or 37, rather than 37.5.

The opportunity:

Typically totals are easier to beat than point spreads for a few reasons. First the public is not as interested in totals as betting sides in a game. Second the people that actually do take the time to research betting totals do not break the numbers correctly and do well enough research to consistently win long term. What these means for us astute sports bettors is an even better opportunity to break the houses back while betting the NFL.

The numbers:

There are 10 very common totals in football: 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, and 54.

Almost 40% of all NFL games will land on one of these key numbers. For someone like Neil, assessing games and frequently betting over/under points totals knowing these common totals, and looking at them relative to the spreads on offer, can be the key difference between taking the right or wrong price. On Saturday night, taking 50.5 was crucial.


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


What else is on Betting Emporium?

College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart will be doing write ups and analysis, free to access here

English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 20th-21st December

Posted on 15 Dec 2014 10:49 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Week 16. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here. Two weeks remain of the regular season and the play-off teams are emerging in key games.

- The Premier League continues with Liverpool against Arsenal on Sunday. Leaders Chelsea play on Monday night at Stoke. It is also the FIFA Club World Cup this weekend.

- Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Haydock, Ascot (including the Ladbroke handicap hurdle previews below by Neil Channing and the Long Walk hurdle) and Newcastle.

- Darts, the PDC World Championship with second round matches at Alexandra Palace

- Cricket, Test matches ongoing in Brisbane (Australia v India) and Pretoria (South Africa v West Indies)


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published last week and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley are being published during the event which started on Thursday. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package)

£49.99 Sign Up Here


Free Tip of the Week   

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot on Saturday - the 3.30pm race.

The Ladbroke at 3.30 at Ascot tomorrow is obviously ridiculously competitive. It does however, have 18-runners right now and providing 16 start the race we'll get 1/4 odds 1234 with all bookies...a rare Christmas present and a big edge to punters.

As with all these big field races you'd expect a decent pace so to narrow it down I'm going to focus on horses that look like staying further than the 2m trip as this could be hard work for any with stamina doubts especially if they get more rain. I like to go for stables in form and up and coming stables, form at Ascot would help but there aren't too many with that so my other main factor will be to concentrate on unexposed improvers...it's hard to run a dozen handicaps and have a enough up your sleeve to win one like this. As in all races ability to handle the ground is also high on my list, although at the moment I'm guessing it'll be nearer to soft than heavy.

I certainly respect Harry Fry the trainer of favourite Activial, but the horse was 12/1 a week ago, it isn't massively experienced and while that is great from a handicap point of view I might prefer it to be a year older.

My two start with Hello George a five year old trained by Phillip Hobbs who is in great form. Stays more than 2m and likes soft ground, this one jumps well and last time it was possibly not helped by running in a race where they took out half the hurdles due to the low sun. Decent price and definitely could be very well handicapped.

My favourite trainer right now is Dan Skelton. Like Harry Fry he is another former Nicholls assistant and they are both going to be the top two yards in the country very soon you'd have to think. He trains Shelford here, a horse that is lightly raced over hurdles, five years old, easily stays 2m4f and likes soft ground. With him staying all day it seems very hard to see this horse finishing out of the frame. The trainer worries a little bit about his jumping, he is a big rather than slick jumper, but surely he'll have worked on that. Just looks like a massively solid bet to me.

I'm having 8 points each-way Hello George at 14/1 1/4 1234 with many firms.

I'm having 14 Points each-way Shelford at 6/1 1/4 1234 with many firms.

 


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

 


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


I was christmas shopping the other day and found myself in my local Waterstones. I happened to wander past (honest) the gambling section. I found a shelf devoted to horse racing (the sport, not the betting on it), and more than half a rack devoted to poker. I found a few books on slot machines and blackjack. I found books that promised to help me pick winning lottery winners. What i didn't find was more than a couple of sports betting books.

So how does this impact the popularity of sports betting? Consider, by way of contrast, someone who has watched Poker on TV, played in some games with friends and now wants to approach it seriously. He can go to any bookstore in the country and pick up books that will give him the basics and beyond--he'll quickly learn about how to grade his starting hands, pot odds, reading opposing player's "tells", managing his bankroll, and various strategies. He can buy books from the classic staples to new tomes, he can watch live streams of perfect poker being shown each weekend and endless training videos and strategy articles are available. Indeed, his only real problem could be information "overkill" and trying to weed through competing strategic theories.

Where does a sports betting enthusiast go as he searches to improve? First, he'll have to survive the onslaught of  the industry and their chatter about "locks", "games of the year", "100,000 star plays" and so forth. Assuming that he doesn't take their advice and bet "everything he owns" on some mythical inside information play, he'll hopefully realise quickly that these aren't the answer. One of the reasons when i started these weekly columns that i wrote some theory pieces was that the neophyte sports gambler soon hits a brick wall, in terms of availability of knowledge, as he tries to learn about the discipline.

This is a bad thing not only for the would-be sports gambler, but for the business as a whole. The scarcity of theoretical information does nothing but underscore the arguments of those who sceptically view the entire world of bookmakers and players. It minimises the challenges and opportunities that sports betting presents, and undermines the appreciation of those bettors who are successful at turning a profit over the long haul. Overall, it helps perpetuate the anti-sports gambling bias inherent in the mainstream media and serves to marginalise a challenging intellectual pursuit.

Perhaps the most frustrating thing about this is that it is the fault of the sports handicapping and information industry. In the effort to turn a quick buck with hype and hot air they ignore the opportunity to educate players on the right way to approach the sports wagering discipline. The fact that the information is not there for the players who do want to learn is a massive failing of the sports information industry. It's also limiting the growth and exposure of sports gambling and thus very counter-productive in the long run.

It's a shame, since there's so much to learn. Consider the volumes that have been written on poker. If so much ink can be devoted to poker, certainly sports betting--with countless more variables--deserves a similarly serious approach. In reality, serious sports betting has more in common with understanding and profiting from the financial markets than anything else. That's why so many people who experience success in the stock market are able to translate it to sports betting, and why some of the best works on sports betting theory are in actuality financial books

 


What else is on Betting Emporium?

College Football bowl games start on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart will be doing write ups and analysis, free to access here

English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 13th-14th December

Posted on 8 Dec 2014 10:22 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 15. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here. Three weeks remain of the regular season and key games abound, helped in part by the NFL's strategy of scheduling divisional games at the close of the season

- The Premier League continues with Manchester United at home to Liverpool on Sunday lunchtime a highlight

Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Cheltenham (including the December Gold Cup), Doncaster and Lingfield.

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the sixth one day International in Pallekele on Saturday morning

- Rugby Union.  the European Rugby Champions Cup continues. Two unbeaten teams remain in the competition. Harlequins, at Leinster this weekend and Toulouse, at Glasgow


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published on Friday and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley will be published during the event. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package) £49.99 Sign Up Here

Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at Sunday's NFL match up in the AFC West between the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers, live on Sky Sports at 9.25pm

Denver can clinch the division with a win in San Diego. With a 10-3 record they are two games clear of the Chargers, and have a 4-0 win/loss record against AFC West teams, winning by an average of 14.5 points per game, including a 35-21 win over San Diego in Week 8.

What is very noticeable in the last few weeks has been a philosophical shift in the Denver offense. Previously an almost guaranteed "overs" team with Peyton Manning and the passing game they have gone under in three of the last four weeks with a strategy of relying on the running game and the defense to win games.

While the contest features two of the best quarterbacks in football, the running game should play a major role in the outcome here too. Denver’s C J Anderson, only introduced into the line up with injuries to Ball and Hillman and only the lead back in the last three weeks rushed for 335 yards in Week 12 and Week 13, and scored three touchdowns last week. Overall in three weeks he has 512 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.

Timing is everything, and he got his shot just as the team was changing focus with harsher weather, the early stages of moving away from relying on Manning and tough defensive opponents all contributing to Denver focussing on the run game

The Broncos are going for their NFL-record 12th consecutive division road victory, and should again rely on their new recipe of running early and launching the ball downfield only as required. Not only is this working well, but it will keep the Chargers passing game off the field, and time of possession and ball control away from home here is important.

Anderson is available at 7-1 first touchdown scorer here with Skybet. Writing on Friday, not all prices are up but 7-1 looks, in terms of the player's form and the way the game might play out, at least a couple of points too long. What helps play to this thought is the Broncos have a strong defense too.

They have one of the league’s best run defenses, ranking second by allowing just 72.8 yards on the ground per game. In terms of pass rush, they have 38 sacks, 4th in the NFL with both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware in double digits. What this speaks to, I think, is a better than average possibility that if the Chargers get the ball first, they might not score the first touchdown.

To summarise

10 points C J Anderson First touchdown scorer Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers 7/1 Skybet.

As prices go up before Sunday I would happily take 13/2 to get on.  


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com  

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


Using and Adapting Asian Handicaps to your Advantage (by Joe Beevers)

We have had several e-mails regarding the use of Asian Handicaps and being able to get on in certain markets. For instance we had a user who wanted to bet over 3 goals (AH) on one of Brodders' write ups but he didn't have a Bet365 account or access to a Pinnacle type bookmaker. However by betting a combination of "over 2.5 goals" and "over 3.5 goals" you can achieve the same thing.

For example: Say the recommended bet is 10 points at 3.0 "over 3 goals AH". You can use the "over 2.5 goals" and "over 3.5 goals" markets as follows:

Whatever you bet to win on over 2.5 goals you stake on over 3.5 goals (so exactly 3 goals becomes a push as on the Asian Handicap)

You could bet 5 points "over 2.5 goals" at 2.00 (which wins 5 points) and 5 points (the profit) over "3.5 goals" at 4.0 (which wins 15 points). So you stake 10 points in total. If the result is under 2.5 you lose 10, exactly 3 you push and over 3.5 you win 20 which is exactly the same result as betting the AH. You may have to play around with the figures and the odds a bit to get the exact same result but the principle is there.

Also if the recommend is AH0 (where 0 is a zero) this is exactly the same as "draw no bet". Sometimes you may be better off betting AH0 on exchances as opposed to DNB as the odds may occasionally be better and AH commission lower on exchanges as they are often keen to promote these markets. Please be aware that Betfair, with effect from December 14th, have stopped their promotional 0.75% commission rate and have reverted to standard commission rates.

We recommend the following Betting Exchanges -

Matchbook (£25 free bet) and Betfair (£30 in free bets)


What else is on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th December

Posted on 30 Nov 2014 13:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 14. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here.

- The Premier League continues with leaders Chelsea at Newcastle and Manchester City hosting Everton. It is also the FA Cup second round.

Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Aintree (featuring the Becher Chase), Sandown (the Tingle Creek) and Chepstow

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the fourth one day International in Colombo on Sunday previewed below

- Rugby Union. After the Autumn Internationals the European Rugby Champions Cup resumes

- Snooker, the final stages of the UK Championship in York.


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at the fourth One Day cricket International between Sri Lanka and England in Colombo on Sunday

In this warm up series for the World Cup (an odd choice of opponent, because conditions here are very different than England will face in Australasia in the new Year) Sri Lanka lead 2-1. In the first two games in Colombo, Sri Lanka won both comfortably before England won in a restricted overs game in the more favourable (more fast bowler friendly) conditions of Hambantota in the third game.

The fourth game on Sunday morning, our time, sees the series return to the Colombo RPS ground where Sri Lanka won the first two games. Sri Lanka rightly are strong favourites to win the game, at 4/7 and would be especially so if once again the hosts prepare a used pitch as they did for the second game of the series.

England will be without captain Alistair Cook for the game, suspended due to slow over rates. Most observers would regard this as strengthening the team because, although obviously a top class test batsman, his strike rate at the top of the order in this format is seen as reducing England's potential to score the 300+ scores required to win games under the new batting regulations that encourage power hitting.

So we have a likely England batting line up (writing on Friday) of Ali, Hales, Bell, Root, Morgan, Bopara and Buttler. 

For some time now i have considered the value in the England top batsman sub-markets in one day cricket as being in Bopara and Buttler. Why is that?

a) the top three (here Ali, Hales, Bell) are priced up to win the market, each around 7/2-4-1. Whilst of course they have first dig at making a score......

b) Sub-continent teams have the strategy of starting the England innings with a spinner. Moeen Ali apart (a worthy favourite, in great form, rock solid technique against spin in these conditions) the approach in the powerplay overs when there is no pace on the ball is tricky. Often the result is early wickets 

c) Eoin Morgan is a dangerous player, but is on a near 18 month run of poor international form. He is also priced a couple of points lower than Buttler and Bopara, not entirely logically.

and the combination of b) and c) is that Bopara and Buttler can see a lot of overs, sometimes rebuilding the innings. The back-stop is that even if the top of the order comes off, both the power hitters at 6 and 7 can score quickly at the back end which potentially gives you a way to "back door" a winning bet

So far this series Bopara has top scored in the second game (51 on the used pitch) and second top scored in the first game (65 on the fresh pitch)

Buttler failed in the first two games and just missed top scorer in the third with 55 not out to win the game

Both should give us a run for our money at very competitive prices and i regard both as fundamentally over-priced in these markets for one day games and they have been for getting on for 18 months now. The odds-setters have not deviated from pricing up according to batting order.

Some of you may be able to back Bopara as high as 8/1 with some firms but as I can't i will take the 7/1 available at Ladbrokes and on the Betfair Sportsbook

Buttler is available at 10-1 with Ladbrokes, 8-1 generally

To summarise:

4th One Day International Sri Lanka v England, Colombo, Sunday (4.30am start GMT).

Top England run scorer:

10 points Ravi Bopara 7-1 Ladbrokes or Betfair Sportsbook

12 points Jos Buttler 10-1 Ladbrokes


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.15% (626 bets) with 8 out of 11 winning months. Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4447.60.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


Amongst the North American sports, betting on the NFL is unique bcause there is so much time between games. In baseball the line for a game only comes out the night before the game is played. Basketball and hockey lines can be out a little bit longer at times, but not much.

Lines in the NFL are out a full week before a game is played. Because the lines are posted for so much time bettors have to decide not only who they are going to bet on, but when they are going to place that bet. Some people like to make their bets early in the week – Sunday night or Monday morning. Others like to wait until just minutes before kickoff. There are advantages to both approaches. Let’s look at three advantages of each:

Betting Early

Capitalise on any mistakes – It’s not that common that NFL  point spreads are totally wrong. Often, though, there will be a line posted that doesn’t match the opinion of smart bettors. In those cases the oddsmakers will quickly adjust the spread to compensate for the heavy action on the smart side. If you make your bets later than Monday morning at the very latest – and typically on Sunday night – then those changes will have been made.

The NFL team that the public likes – usually the favourite – will draw the majority of the bets, and often times that action is heavy enough to cause the line to move. Over the course of the week it’s not uncommon to see a line for a favourite to move by as much as a field goal or even more. If you know that the team you are going to bet is likely to be a popular team, and you are confident in your opinion, then it makes sense to bet as early as you can.

Position yourself to take advantage of line moves – Even if you don’t particularly feel strongly about a game betting on them early can open up opportunities later in the week if the line does move. For example, if you bet on the favorite and the line rises significantly then the opportunity may exist to bet the middle – a very profitable approach.

Late

Better price for team the public doesn’t like – If you are betting on a NFL team that the public is against then the line on that team is likely to improve over the course of the week as the public pours their money onto the team that they like. By showing patience in terms of when you make your bet, then, you can often bet on a line that is a couple of points better than it was to start the week.

More time to prepare – When it comes to betting on the NFL, spending more time looking over a game and looking for the edge is almost always a good thing. The longer you wait to bet on a game the more time you have to handicap the game, and if you use that time well you’re going to be better off.

React to injuries and lineup changes. By waiting until later in the week to make a bet you are sure to avoid any surprising changes in the lineup – a NFL player who gets hurt in practice, an injured player who was expected to return but isn’t ready, an injury suffered in the last game that is more serious than it seemed, a benched starter, and so on. Any of those things can have a big impact both on the potential outcome of the game and how the line moves on a particular football game.


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English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users

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The Road to Riches: Weekend 29th-30th November

Posted on 24 Nov 2014 10:10 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 13.  The highlight is the two top offenses in the league squaring off as the Green Bay Packers host the New England Patriots. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here.

- The Premier League continues with leaders Chelsea travelling to Snderland and the surprise team of the season Suthampton hosting Manchester City.

Racing, highlighted by the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury previewed below and meetings at Newcastle, Towecester and Bangor-on-dee.

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the second ODI in Colombo on Saturday after a high-scoring defeat in the first game.

- Rugby Union the Autumn Internationals conclude with England playing Australia and Wales hosting South Africa.

- Boxing, on Saturday night at the ExCel arena London, Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora (British heavyweight) and Billy Joe Saunders v Chris Eubank Jr (European middleweight) bouts.


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing previews Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury (Newbury 3.00)

Tomorrow's big race at Newbury, the Hennessy at 3pm, is a proper horse race. A 3m2f chase over pretty tough fences and a bit of a slog on fairly soft ground. You need a decent class horse that jumps well, goes left handed and has a bit of stamina to get home on this ground. Luckily for us this is a fantastic race for each-way bets with arguably only six horses who really have the class to win and with 19-runners meaning we'll still get four places on each-way bets even if a couple of non-runners crop up. On top of all of that we have a favourite which is definitely an exciting horse who is potentially incredibly well-handicapped, but who is a massive doubt at this trip and who is really young and inexperienced.
 
 I could easily bet any of the next few in the betting each-way and if you like Many Clouds, The Druid's Nephew, Fingal Bay, Smad Place or Rocky Creek I wouldn't put you off and I'd say you probably have a good bet. I'm going to narrow it down to two here though and have a decent go at winning a few quid.
 
 Fingal Bay has won here, likes soft ground, has the speed of a hurdler and is from a stable in great form but I'm not so sure over this long trip and he isn't so experienced over fences. I'll leave this.
 
 Many Clouds loves the ground and looks like he'll stay all day. He seems priced about right and I'm not a massive fan of this stable so I think I'll pass.
 
 Smad Place is from a great stable, he ran a brilliant race at Cheltenham last year, he loves the soft ground and he has won round here over close to this trip. I do like Alan King a lot and I'm sure he has got the horse here in peak fitness and ready to win but at 7/1 I'd really like to have seen the horse in the last six weeks.
 
 Neil Mullholland is a really good trainer and the market seems to be slow to catch on to this. I am betting a lot of his horses this year. The Druid's Nephew needs a left-handed track, he stays longer than this 3m2f and he relishes a slog. My main worry would be his slightly dodgy jumping but if he gets round I just can't see him not contesting the finish.
 
 Rocky Creek has long been thought of as a Grand National horse by Paul Nicholls. He was 2nd in this race last year, we know he stays, we know he likes the ground, he jumps well and he has grown up a little bit since last year. Just looks so solid for a yard in flying form.
 
 
 I'm having 12 Points each-way at 10/1 The Druid's Nephew 1/4 1,2,3,4, (this is widely available)
 
 I'm having 16 Points each-way at 10/1 Rocky Creek 1/4 1,2,3,4 (10/1 at Betfred at the time of publishing)
 
 These two are pretty strong bets for me and I would have happily bet them at 9/1 and 8/1.
 

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Angles are a big part of NFL betting. Essentially an angle is a trend. Bettors will identify a trend that has been profitable in the past, find situations in which that same angle is occurring in a future game, and bet it in an attempt to make a profit. Neil Channing does this all the time with analysis of long run trends for teams in certain situations against the spread and it is common too in player props/sub-markets where a look at trends for players against various opponents over various seasons is an essential starting point for understanding where quotes are pitched.

If you are interested in betting angles, whether this be on games or sub-markets/props then these are relevant issues:

Test, test, test – As in recent articles the question of sample size is key. Before you trust any angle, then, you need to go back and test it over as many games as you can. The larger the sample size the better. If something has happened seven times in the last 10 games then it’s not a very powerful trend because the sample size is so small.

Make sure you are looking at root causes - When you are looking at angles it is very important that what you are looking at is actually affecting the outcome of games, and not just a coincidence of circumstances. There is a classic one in the NFL at the moment. The Dallas Cowboys are 21-1 where DeMarco Murray the NFL’s leading rusher runs twenty times a game. It is trotted out every weekend. Is it a valid trend, or a mere coincidence? Probably the latter.

Keep re-evaluating to make sure they are still working - Angles can work for a long time, but it is common for angles to work less effectively as time goes along. There are a few reasons for this. First, if an angle is popular and used by a lot of bettors then sportsbooks are going to take steps to limit the effectiveness of that angle over time and adjust spreads.

 More significantly, though, sports just change over time. Coaching gets better, training gets better, and strategies and schemes evolve. If teams consistently keep getting beaten in one particular situation then they are going to identify that and find a way to change it.

Constantly, creatively improve - The worst thing you can be when betting angles is complacent. If an angle is working well for you now then you don’t want to get lazy and just keep betting it until it doesn’t work anymore. Instead, you want to constantly be thinking about what you could be doing that is even more successful. For example, Is there a way that you could further limit the angle so that the winning percentage is even higher? Is there a way you could expand the number of games you play with the angle so that it is less profitable on each game, but that is more than made up for by the number of games?

Don’t follow blindly - If you are just following angles blindly then you aren’t likely to succeed over the long term. You constantly need to be testing and refining your angles to make sure that they work well. You also need to make sure that the game that the angle has identified actually makes sense. Sometimes an angle will point out a team or a game that just doesn’t make sense for other reasons – a serious injury to a key player, for example. By eliminating games that don’t make a lot of sense you can make fewer losing bets, increase your win percentage, and increase the overall effectiveness of your angle/prop betting.


What's on Betting Emporium?

Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here free until December 1st.

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

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