Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 23rd-24th August

Posted on 17 Aug 2014 11:05 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches

23rd-24th August 2014

Coming up this weekend

- The final day of the York Ebor meeting the highlight of the racing Saturday

- A full football programme, including the second weekend of the Premier League season

- The NatWest T20 Blast finals day Cricket at Edgbaston

- The Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps

- The Rugby League Challenge Cup Final between Castleford and Leeds at Wembley

In addition

- US Open Tennis begins on Monday with coverage on Betting Emporium from Nigel Seeley. Recommendations are now available here

 


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today is T20 Finals day at Edgbaston, the most high profile day of the domestic English cricket season. Two semi-finals and a final on the same day, beginning at 11am live on Sky Sports.

In the first semi-final Surrey play Birmingham, in the second Hampshire meet Lancashire.

Current outright prices are

Surrey 9/4

Hampshire 5/2

Lancashire 3/1

Birmingham 4/1

T20 is a very short format and these are four strong teams. There is no real reason to have one team virtually half the price of another here. Any of the four teams can win it with an individual performance or two with bat or ball. This makes the format watchable but for the bettor smallish stakes only!

Birmingham have home advantage. This is relevant in two respects

a) Birmingham have the most miserly bowling attack of the four teams. Three of their five bowlers (Patel, Javed and Clarke) have economy rates below 6 runs per over in this year's competition. Patel in particular is a match-winning bowler at Edgbaston. In this year's competition he has 23 wickets (two thirds at Edgbaston) at under 12 runs each and has gone at 5.63.

t’s difficult to look past Jeetan Patel. He has taken 23 wickets at only 11.52 apiece with an economy rate of 5.63. Those are remarkable figures. He has the ability to put any side under pressure in the key middle overs of the innings. A combination of economy and wicket-taking ability is what every bowler yearns for in T20 and the New Zealand off-spinner seems to have found the magic formula.

Read more at: http://deepextracover.com/2014/08/20/finals-day-preview-birmingham-bears/#.U_RlMKPCovk | Deep Extra Cover
Jeetan Patel. He has taken 23 wickets at only 11.52 apiece with an economy rate of 5.63. Those are remarkable figures. He has the ability to put any side under pressure in the key middle overs of the innings. A combination of economy and wicket-taking ability is what every bowler yearns for in T20 and the New Zealand off-spinner seems to have found the magic formula. If he can continue in that vein, he will be a match-winner. And if he strode to the crease with the Bears needing six to win off the final ball, I wouldn’t back against him.

Read more at: http://deepextracover.com/2014/08/20/finals-day-preview-birmingham-bears/#.U_RlMKPCovk | Deep Extra Cover

b) Edgbaston wickets are typically slow and dry. T20 scores there average 150-160 and if the pitch is prepared as normal it does not tend to suit the extravagant strokemakers and you find these more in the other three teams as Birmingham's T20 team is atypical in that is is comprised of accumulators with the bat. 

Birmingham are 6/5 underdogs to beat Surrey in the first game. If they win that game we can assume they'd be underdogs to either of the other teams in the final and and a 6/5 6/5 double pays less than 4/1

Birmingham and Lancashire are the two teams that benefit from the availability of England players (Bell and Woakes, Buttler and Anderson) and I can't help feeling that the Surrey price is too short. They are certainly less consistent than the other three and are vulnerable if their hitter at the top of the order Jason Roy doesn't come off. I regard Lancashire as the main dangers, a powerful and consistent T20 team (who are also underdogs in their semi-final, strangely).

Birmingham won their last three group games to make the quarters, beat Essex away in the semi's as bigger underdogs than they will be against any of today's opponents and are simply a decent value bet here.

4 points (Nat West T20 Blast Winner) Birmingham Bears at 4-1 Sportingbet, also at Betway, Winner

** Please note some bookmakers list the Birmingham Bears as Warwickshire **

 


 

Bookmaker reviews and advice

 

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

This week a look at Pinnaclesports

In a recent Betting Emporium article Stuart Doyle wrote

"Just as a final note if you intend to follow the picks here at Betting Emporium for this NFL season you really have to sign up for an account with Pinnacle if you don’t already have one. They offer reduced margins on the NFL and won’t restrict or close you when you win.... Not having an account there will be simply burning money this NFL season and could really be the difference between a mediocre NFL season and very good one. Please open your Pinnacle account here "

Joe Beevers wrote the following recently

"I get the impression that many people lump all sports books into one big pot and most people here are used to dealing with the UK high street firms. Pinnacle is a very different animal altogether.

Pinnacle bet to much smaller margins than most firms a lot of you will be used to. On a pick'em most UK firms bet 10/11 each of two (104.8% book), some even bet 5/6 each of two (109.1%). Pinnaccle typically bet to about 102%. So every time you back a winner with them you win more money.

Chargebacks are always a problem with online gambling. If a firm can reduce this cost they can save money and become more competitive. The way that Pinnacle do this is to make sure that you are who you say you are. So when you open your account they ask you up front for scanned docs. Sure this is a hassle that you would rather not have but you only have to do it once and because everyone does it here Pinnacle don't have to make that extra bit of money in their margins. By sending in those docs YOU make more money.

One of the biggest costs for an online firm taking bets is the cost of processing money. If you use a UK VISA debit card to deposit £1000 with one of the big UK firms their processing cost, to the best of my knowledge, is about a flat 25p. Pinnacle get charged a percentage rather than a fixed amount and this is typically 4% of the deposit amount. It is a similar thing with taking money out.

Usually when you hear about a company charging for withdrawals and firms not just sending money back immediately, asking for ID or charging somehow everyone starts to worry about that firm and to dislike these things. I understand that.

You simply have to accept that Pinnacle is a totally different business model to all the UK high street firms.

When you deposit they don't want you to have one bet and withdraw immediately afterwards. It costs them money. It's not because they don't want you to withdraw, they just don't want to have to pay for it and lose money as a result.

As they are so often best price it makes sense to leave money on there.

You have the option, you can get paid £90 for a £100 winning bet and withdraw instantly everytime or get paid £95 for the same bet and not withdraw instantly. I know which I prefer. If you withdraw once a month they send the money by bank wire and my experience is that it typically takes about 2 days. There is no charge for that.

The other thing is that they won't close your account, they don't mind if you arb either.

Something that even some hardened sports bettors don't realise is that you can re-bet with Pinnacle. If you ask Ladbrokes for £550 at 10/11 and they lay you £220 that's it, no more action. If Pinnacle lay you £220 at 1.952 then they will either adjust the price a few ticks (or often leave it) and you can then bet the same amount again, and again and again. There is no real limit as there is with the UK firms.

- They are getting a UKGC license and are in the final stages of processing everything.

- They have a 5 time rollover requirement for withdrawals, however if a player wishes to withdraw sooner he may do so at a fee of 3%.

This last point seems to really bother some people and I can see why. If you get in the habit of using them though it doesn't matter in the slightest. If you are however someone that only bets on the World Cup final every four years then they are not really the firm for you."


What's new on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – still FREE to all registered users and available here 2013/14 Season 120 bets, 65 winners (54.17%), +2.81% ROI

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here

Football by Brodders - across European leagues is available here

Pre-season Analysis:

English Football - Pre-season Analysis. Over a number of reports Stuart Doyle will be looking at all divisions from the Premier League through to League 2 and trying to find you the value in the outrights, promotion, relegation, goal scorers, groups and various other specials markets here.

English Non League Football – Pre-Season Analysis – by Alan Alger. Noted Non-league judge Alan is sharing his knowledge on the English Non-League – primarily the three Conference divisions, and this is FREE to all registered users here. His look at the ante-post markets is available now

The NFL 2014-15 season begins on 1st September. Look out for ante-post season bets and pre-season match selections published through August and then Neil’s weekly analysis throughout the season. Pre-season game tips are already available including week 3 here. Ante-post articles for the Superbowl, conferences, divisions, team and player specials are here

 


Betting Emporium results

Across every sport since inception can be found by clicking RESULTS .

Please see the Frequently asked questions section for explanations of the methodology

The Road to Riches: Weekend 16th-17th August

Posted on 9 Aug 2014 14:38 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches

 

16th-17th August 2014

Premier League 2014/15 Free Competition -$500 in prizes – winner takes all - See HERE for how to enter

Simply use your skill to predict the final finishing position of all 20 teams in the Premier League. The person who is closest at the end of the season wins the $500...over to you!


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Stuart "redarmi" Doyle takes a look at a  goalscorer bet to coincide with the start of the Premier League season

"There appears to be a really good opportunity in the Liverpool game for a bet on the first goalscorer.  Many people are wondering how Liverpool will do without Suarez but in terms of goalscoring we do have something of an idea from the start of last year when Suarez was suspended.  In that period Liverpool scored 9 goals and 6 of them were scored by Daniel Sturridge and he went on to get 24 in 33 games last season.  He is the real deal and this year I would really expect him to kick on. 

According to the match prices (which look about right) Liverpool have roughly a 72% chance of scoring the first goal and I would expect Sturridge to score that goal at least 35% of the time now he is their main goalscoring threat.  If we multiply those then 35% of 72% is 25.2%.  Effectively a shade under a 3/1 shot and that seems about right to me yet you can bet 4/1 with Bet 365 and BetVictor.  Not the best of books but they should lay a decent bet on this and I would have 15 points at 4/1 if they accommodated me.  I can get on with a few firms that will lay 10/3 though and will have 8 points at that price.
 
Recommend 15 points Sturridge to score first in Liverpool - Southampton game @ 4/1 (Bet365, BetVictor) or 8 points @ 100/30 (Ladbrokes, Betfred)


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

This week Ladbrokes have an offer those who sign up through Betting Emporium on this link. Up to a £100 FREE bet by signing up on the link with the promotion code F100. This special offer, available on all UK sports betting, will run until the end of September 2014.

Register via online or mobile & enter the promo code, deposit a minimum of GBP/EUR 5 and then place a single bet of GBP/EUR 5 or more on any sport and Ladbrokes will match your stake with a Free Bet of up to GBP/EUR 100.

Terms and conditions are here


Free Bets:

How to use them best…

Whether you are opening an account or betting on major events, bookmakers offering free bets as part of their promotional offers are extremely common.  Of course these are easy ways to both attract new customers and encourage existing customers to bet more. However many people fall down on a) actually using the free bets within the time limits and b) using them efficiently 

The inclination of many is to stick the free bet on a “good thing” and at least ensure a return. This though is not the optimal way to use a free bet. Last week I looked at the "active" use of free bets. Today we will look at using free bets and ensuring at least part is returned as cash:

Take a £25 free bet where bet stake itself isn't returned.   This calculation assumes backing and laying at the same price.  Obviously the returns are greater where you can find a spot to back higher than laying on Betfair 

A simple way of working out how much you can convert the free bet to cash is to take the free bet amount and divide by the (decimal price +1).  Here are some examples below:

If you back an even money shot for £25 and lay £12.50 at evens the free bet will return £12.50 guaranteed win or lose.  You win £12.50 if the bet wins (£25 from firm minus £12.50 lost on the lay or the free bet loses you win £12.50 from the lay)

If you back a 4/1 shot for £25 and lay £20 at 4/1 the free bet will return £20 guaranteed win or lose.  You win £20 if the bet wins ((£25 x 4 winnings from the firm) £100) - (£20  4 from the losing exchange lay) £80).  If the free bet loses you are guaranteed £20 only from the lay.

If you back a 9/1 shot for £25 and lay £22.50 at 9/1 the free bet will return £22.50 guaranteed win or lose.  You win £22.50 if the bet wins ((£25x9 winning from the firm) £225) - (£22.50 x 9 from the losing exchange lay) £202.50.  If the free bet loses you are guaranteed £22.50 from the losing lay.

If you back a 99/1 shot for £25 and lay £24.75 at 99/1 the free bet will return £24.75 guaranteed win or lose.  You win £24.75 if the free bet wins ((£25x 99 winnings from the firm) £2475 - (£24.75 x99 from the losing exchange lay) £2450.25.  If the free bet loses you are guaranteed £24.75 from the losing lay.

This example assumes no commission on Betfair.

This shows overall that the bigger the price you use for the free bet the better.  The problem arises that it gets harder and harder to lay 100/1 shots at 100/1 on Betfair

 

What's new for the football season on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – still FREE to all registered users and available here 2013/14 Season 120 bets, 65 winners (54.17%), +2.81% ROI

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

English Football - Pre-season Analysis. Over a number of reports Stuart Doyle will be looking at all divisions from the Premier League through to League 2 and trying to find you the value in the outrights, promotion, relegation, goal scorers, groups and various other specials markets. You can sign up to the package for £49.99 here.

English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here

English Non League Football – Pre-Season Analysis – by Alan Alger. Noted Non-league judge Alan is sharing his knowledge on the English Non-League – primarily the three Conference divisions, and this is FREE to all registered users here. His look at the ante-post markets is available now


What else is on Betting Emporium?

Racing: York Ebor Festival Neil will be covering all four days of the York Ebor Meeting with his famous write ups and analysis. The cost for the four day package is £99.99 and is available here

The NFL 2014-15 season begins on 1st September. Look out for ante-post season bets and pre-season match selections published through August and then Neil’s weekly analysis throughout the season. Pre-season game tips are already available here. Ante-post articles for the Superbowl, conferences, divisions, team and player specials are here

Football by Brodders - across European leagues is available here

US Open Tennis takes place from August 25th to September 8th with coverage from Nigel Seeley

Cricket. The India Test Series in England concludes this week, coverage of the 5th Test, the upcoming one day and T20 international series and T20 finals day on 23rd August at Edgbaston here


Betting Emporium results

Across every sport since inception can be found by clicking RESULTS .

Please see the Frequently asked questions section for explanations of the methodology

The Road to Riches: Weekend 9th-10th August

Posted on 5 Aug 2014 09:11 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches

 

9th-10th August 2014

Coming up this weekend... 

      Racing includes Saturday meetings at Ascot (including the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup), Newmarket and Haydock

Golf, the final golf major of 2014, the USPGA, concludes at Valhalla

The 2014-15 Football League begins this weekend and the traditional curtain raiser, the FA Community shield is played on Sunday at Wembley between Arsenal and Manchester City 

The Fourth England-India Cricket Test continues at Old Trafford


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers (today's is mine).

Today to coincide with the start of the Football league season, a look at the game between Exeter City and Portsmouth in Division 2. Expectations for Portsmouth are high for this season after a superb end to last season (five wins in the last seven) under new manager Andy Awford, a Portsmouth man through and through who energised both players and the big fan-base after a long period of disappointment . They are are joint favourites to win the division with Luton and after a terrible few years are finally emerging into a more stable situation financially, such that this summer they have strengthened across the squad, and i thought the signing of Craig Westcarr was significant. He drops down a division having scored fourteen goals in the division above for Walsall last season.

Portsmouth are generally available at 13/10 for this game at Exeter. In a few weeks time think we might look back and wonder how they weren't odds-on. This is because the other half of the story here is that Exeter are in a parlous state.  Exeter finished last season 17th, five points above relegation and have had a difficult summer since. Financial issues mean not only that they are in transfer embargo situation but also seven of the starting eleven in the last game of the prior season are no longer at the club. Unable to strengthen the team, tomorrow it will be full of youngsters.

If Portsmouth are as advertised for 2014-15, they will kick off with a win in Devon

10 points Portsmouth to win at Exeter, 6/5 available at Coral and William Hill.


Free Bets:

How to use them best…

Whether you are opening an account or betting on major events, bookmakers offering free bets as part of their promotional offers are extremely common.  Of course these are easy ways to both attract new customers and encourage existing customers to bet more. However many people fall down on a) actually using the free bets within the time limits and b) using them efficiently 

Examples include Bet365’s 4/1+ offer on Channel four races (same stake on the next race after a winner), or William Hill’s money back as a free bet if your horse is second. Recent examples include money back as a free bet if Brazil win the world cup, Phil Taylor wins the Darts, McIlroy wins the Open etc.

The inclination of many is to stick the free bet on a “good thing” and at least ensure a return. This though is not the optimal way to use a free bet. There are two alternatives. Today we will deal with the first of these:

“active” use of free bets:

Let's assume you have a £50 free bet.

a) You back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

b) You back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

c) You back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.09 x £500 = £45

d) You back a 50/1 chance.  A lot of 50/1 chances are higher prices on Betfair. Using 80/1 your chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return = £2500 x 0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

The best way to use your free bet is to place a bet that is near or over 10/1 that the bookmaker is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way because if you win on the place part the bookmakers take off the entire stake from both the win or lose parts from your winnings.  As the price gets bigger the effect gets less marked, but it is still a disadvantage so never use a free bet on an each way bet. For example with a 12/1 chance you still lose half your winnings on a place only return

Next week I will look at using the free bet and laying your selection on Betfair to guarantee turning a proportion of each free bet into cash:


What's new on Betting Emporium?

USPGA Golf: Neil Channing continues his analysis of the final 2014 Golf Major at Valhalla with the final two rounds this weekend. Coverage is FREE here to registered users

English Football - Pre-season Analysis. Over a number of reports Stuart Doyle will be looking at all divisions from the Premier League through to League 2 and trying to find you the value in the outrights, promotion, relegation, goal scorers, groups and various other specials markets. You can sign up to the package for £49.99 here. Premier League, Championship and League One suggestions already published

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the first week's games in the Championship, free to access here

English Non League Football – Pre-Season Analysis – by Alan Alger. Noted Non-league judge Alan is sharing his knowledge on the English Non-League – primarily the three Conference divisions, and this is FREE to all registered users here. His look at the ante-post markets is available now

English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the first week's games in the Conference, free to access here

The NFL 2014-15 season begins on 1st September. Look out for ante-post season bets and pre-season match selections published through August and then Neil’s weekly analysis throughout the season. Pre-season game tips are already available here

**if you intend to follow the picks at Betting Emporium for this NFL season you really have to sign up for an account with Pinnacle if you don’t already have one. They offer reduced margins on the NFL and won’t restrict or close you when you win. Not having an account there will be simply burning money this NFL season and could really be the difference between a mediocre NFL season and very good one. Please open your Pinnacle account here **

Premier League Statistical Analysis – still FREE to all registered users - New Season Starts August 16th  2013/14 Season 120 bets, 65 winners (54.17%), +2.81% ROI

US Open Tennis takes place from August 25th to September 8th with coverage from Nigel Seeley

Cricket. The India Test Series in England concludes later this month, look out for coverage of the 5th Test and T20 finals day on 23rd August at Edgbaston here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Betting Emporium results

Across every sport since inception can be found by clicking RESULTS .

Please see the Frequently asked questions section for explanations of the methodology

The Road to Riches: Saturday 2nd August

Posted on 31 Jul 2014 09:00 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches

 

Saturday 2nd August 2014

 

To read an interview with Neil Channing on The Betting Emporium please see HERE

Coming up this weekend... 

      Racing this weekend, notably the final day of Glorious Goodwood including  the Stewards Cup

Cricket, the Nat West T20 Blast Quarter-Finals are taking place

The 2014 Commonwealth games concludes in Glasgow

In Golf, the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational is ongoing at Firestone CC, Ohio

 

Goodwood Package

Betting Emporium offers a £50 package for selections for Glorious Goodwood for Friday and today. To sign up for today’s selections please click HERE

 

Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, a look at one of the NatWest T20 Blast Quarter finals, Essex v Birmingham at Chelmsford which is taking place today at 6pm live on Sky Sports

Essex are firm favourites to win this Quarter-final, priced at 1/2 and they should have too much power for a Birmingham Bears side that crept into the quarters.  Brmingham's strength is their bowling attack. They have the leading competition wicket-taker Jeetan Patel and a battery of miserly seamers but my main betting interest is in their batting line-up which is seriously short of ammunition. In this year's competition they don't have a single batsman amongst those with the highest 20 strike rates nor anybody in the leading 30 six-hitters. Outlining their problems is that of their recognised batsmen only Laurie Evans and Will Porterfield shows strike rates that exceed 120 (runs per hundred balls).

The shape of the sub-market for Top Birmingham batsman is interesting in the light of this. Varun Chopra opens, anchors the innings and has 386 runs in the competition this year with four 50s. Aside from him and Porterfield there is no Warwickshire batsman over 250 runs in the competition this season, and these two are 3-1 joint favourites. Below them in the betting are the rest of the top and middle order. Various out-of-form players (I'm not sure Trott will play, he would be an exception on form) with modest strike rates at prices that take us all the way to an interesting contender at 16-1, the wicket-keeper Tim Ambrose

In around half the 14 group games Ambrose batted as high as number 4, typically in games where a couple of early wickets are lost and the side needs to consolidate. In other games, he bats as low as 9. He batted 4 on Thursday in the 50 over competition, and scored 70. It is speculative of course, but if he bats 4 his true price here is far nearer the 8-1 Bet365 price him at than the 12-1 available elsewhere and even 16-1 is around. What swings it in favour of a bet is that the rest of the top order shouldn't (famous last words) be all guns blazing and the sub-market is stuffed full of these players around 7-2 to 6-1. 

So, before i sum up, some T20 betting caveats. Its a short format, both individual and team performances have a large random element over such a small sample of overs and if weather gets involved (Chelmsford looks too far east to catch the rain forecast for tomorrow, but I am not the Met Office) then reduced overs and Duckworth-Lewis run chases can make a fool of any prediction. This is why stakes are comparatively low. It's a cricket sub-market. The game is live on Sky but its not going to have the market depth of a racing festival or a major football match.

I'm having 4 points Tim Ambrose Top Birmingham Bears batsman at 12-1 Ladbrokes or William Hill .16-1 is available at 888sport and unibet for those that have them. I wouldn't take less than 10-1

A saver, in case Ambrose bats low down, Varun Chopra 2 points Top Birmingham Bears batsman 3-1 everywhere, William Hill usually one the best opportunities to get on in the cricket sub's.

 

Bookmaker reviews and advice

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Getting the best price available is very important for all professional bettors and those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Account restrictions

The landscape of the UK book-making industry is changing and many of us face greater issues getting our bets on. Why is this?

1. The arrival of high margin products such as casino and games

Games and casino products online, or FOBT's (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) in betting shops, make a very high and guaranteed margin. These new products are the dream for all people high up in bookmaking companies, as the more ingenious and attractive they are, the more money they rake in.

They are a big threat to industries such as horse-racing. Why would bookmakers try to grow horse racing turnover and take the business of “shrewd” punters when they can "win" 10-20pc of gaming turnover from the machines?

2. The internet has made us all disloyal "price tarts" in the eyes of bookmakers

With the advent of the exchanges and the arrival of low margin bookmakers such as Pinnacle it has become possible for price aware punters to have bets without any margin against them.

Putting up prices on well known price-comparison sites merely locks in an army of "arbers" to swarm all over the site if a price ever slips over the "exchange" price.

Cultivating a recreational punting base has become the aim of firms such as Bet365 (what is Ray going to offer at half-time?) and Ladbrokes (Ladbrokes life campaign). Take a look at these adverts in the middle of every televised match. They are aggressively courting the punter, beer in hand, watching the game with his mates. He wants an interest, he isn’t on odds-checker and he probably hasn’t heard of Betfair. If this huge largely untapped market is out there and can be captured, why do firms such as Bet365 need to play the warm people at all? The truth is they don't.

3. Accountants dominate traders

Trading before Betfair was a question of formbook knowledge, experience and access to the industry tissue. Bookmakers put up prices and felt out the markets, got to know their punters, the best of whom helped them form the markets and traders moved the prices dramatically and often. Traders would demand winning accounts were kept open as they were vital to guide markets

These days, the numbers men are firmly in charge. A winning bet, beating the price, or an arb is enough to have one's account immediately restricted. Short-termism has dominated the mindset of people whose salaries are dependent on margins. Betting exchanges have removed the need to formulate prices or trade markets, the skill has been removed, the experience level of the trader has declined dramatically

4. The standard of traders has declined rapidly

Once a skilled and highly valued profession "Betfair watcher" would be a better description of most young, fresh faced traders these days. Very little knowledge or skill is needed to go 6/4 when it is 2.62 on Betfair, indeed many companies now have completely automated trading platforms that mirror the exchange led prices totally. It has wiped out the arbers, but it has also completely lost an entire generation of punters directly to the exchanges themselves.

This is seen best by demise of the on-course betting industry who have completely shot themselves in the foot by embracing exchanges, hedging into them and getting their entire market prices directly from them such that the customer on-course might as well not bet with them, and in some cases has no need to go to the course now anyway  

5. The punter has never had it so good?

The flip-side to all these often justified complaints about restriction and closure is that the huge competition for turnover has meant that the value available is unbelievable. At major racing festivals prices offered are frequently over-broke. You can get each way eight places on golf majors, and offers on major football matches. The list goes on. The main issue of course is getting on.

 

What is next on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Pre-season Analysis. In a number of reports, the first of which has been published, Stuart Doyle will be looking at all divisions from the Premier League through to League 2 and trying to find you the value in the outrights, promotion, relegation, goal scorers, groups and various other specials markets. You can sign up to the package for £49.99 here

The final golf major of 2014 the USPGA at Valhalla takes place next week with FREE coverage by Neil Channing

Premier League Statistical Analysis – still FREE to all registered users - New Season Starts August 16th  2013/14 Season 120 bets, 65 winners (54.17%), +2.81% ROI

US Open Tennis takes place from August 25th to September 8th with coverage from Nigel Seeley

The NFL 2014-15 season begins on 1st September. Look out for season bets published through August and then Neil’s weekly analysis throughout the season.

 

How has Betting Emporium done recently?

World Match-play Darts A small profit on the matches but a loss overall of 11.8 points including the outrights

The Open Golf Championship tips included Rickie Fowler and Jim Furyk each way at 40-1 and 60-1 respectively and overall saw a 5.74% return

Wimbledon subscribers won 197 points and Nigel Seeley’s selections showed a 54.75% ROI including Petra Kvitova recommended at 16-1 each-way for the Ladies singles pre-tournament. Nigel will be back for the US Open in August.

Recommendations on The World Cup Package produced a profit of 77 points and an 11.19% ROI. Betting £10 a point you would have won £772.30

The Royal Ascot selections produced a profit of 182 points and a ROI of 23.3%

Since January, betting on Brodders’ football selections would see you with an ROI of 9.64% with 6 winning months out of 7.

 

Betting Emporium results

Across every sport since inception can be found by clicking RESULTS .

Please see the Frequently asked questions section for explanations of the methodology

 

 

 

 

The Road to Riches: Saturday 26th July

Posted on 23 Jul 2014 10:24 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

 

The Road to Riches

Saturday 26th July 2014

 

 Coming up this weekend... 

      Racing this weekend includes the King George at Ascot and afternoon meetings at Newmarket, York and Newcastle 

Cricket, the third England-India Test Match begins on Sunday at Southampton with India 1-0 in the five match series after their victory at Lords

The World Matchplay Darts continuess in Blackpool with Phil Taylor and Michael Van Gerwen the favourites at the semi-final stage.

The 2014 Commonwealth games is underway in Glasgow and continues for another 8 days, the Athletics starting today

The Tour De France ends this weekend with Vincenzo Nibali the probable winner, and a fierce battle for podium places taking place behind him

The Hungarian Grand Prix at the Hungaroring this weekend sees Lewis Hamilton the odds-on favourite to win for Mercedes

 

Free Tip of the Week

The Road to Riches will be weekly and will feature regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, Neil Channing looks at the big Ascot handicap, the 3.15....

" Last week was fun but it puts the pressure on me this week. I was quite excited though as I thought I had a 12/1 winner for you in The King George. I don't like hype-horse Telescope at all, I'm not sure about Magician or Mukhadram over this trip, I'm a fan of Taghrooda but this is a tough ask and I was planning to have a decent bet on Flintshire which is out with a temperature. Rather than switch to my other possible Eagle Top which is really quite short now Pricewise are on I'll tell you about the big handicap. Getting each-way with 12345 is a definite advantage on the place part of the bet to the punters. Getting 12345 in a race where you can discount many horses on the draw is a big angle in.

All summer people in racing bore on about how the draw is never so important as where the pace will come from. I notice that the people saying that are always people who don't have to rely on betting winners to get a living from the game. At Royal Ascot every single sprint was dominated by horses drawn high. I agree that the jockeys helped the trend by trying to defy trigonometry and charging over from poor draws rather than going for the old run in a straight line system. You just can't argue with results though and I can't see the point of trying to defy the trend when there are some tasty prices about a few high-drawn horses available.
 
 Despite the idiot clerk of the course being vague about how much water was added to the track prior to yesterday's thunderstorm it does look as if beautiful weather and the fast-drying track will mean that high-drawn fast ground horses will be where I am looking.
 
 High on my shortlist was Watchable, a little unlucky at Royal Ascot and the stable coming in to form. This one was 25/1 three days ago so at 11/1 I'll leave it. Horsted Keynes was also unlucky in the same Royal Ascot race and if I was here to pick winners I might give you him, but my job is to make a long term profit by picking +ev bets and at 8/1 I'm leaving this one. Fort Bastion is from a yard I love to follow and the horse is flying, I could include it if I picked three or four in the race but I shall stick with one today. The one I found hardest to rule out was Belgian Bill with a great draw and the best jockey this horse loves it here but again at 9/1 it may be just a shade too short.
 
 I have decided on a horse from a stable who I used to really rate who might finally be emerging from the doldrums. Seven Furlongs is a funny distance which attracts specialists, it's not quite so much about flat-out sprinting. I like horses in these races who stay further. My selection was also in the Royal Ascot race with Louis the Pious, Horsted Keynes and Watchable and I thought he was the most unlucky. I backed him and tipped the horse each-way to Betting Emporium subscribers and I was feeling very pleased until the jockey challenged a little too early and also brought him off the rail. I feel redemption coming today. This is a strong bet getting the five places.
 
 I'm having 12 points each-way Bronze Angel at 12/1 with VC, Skybet, Bet365 and Paddy Power 12345.
 
 (I'd rather take 11/1 12345 than 12/1 1234 if I missed the prices or couldn't get on with the pathetic bunch of firms suggested above)."

 

After Neil’s successful packages for Cheltenham (64.2% ROI), Aintree (74.6% ROI) and Royal Ascot (23.3% ROI) the next Horse racing package is for the Glorious Goodwood five day festival starting next week.

 If you had bet £10 per point on all of Neil Channing's horse racing selections since this site launched in Feb 2013 you would be showing a profit of £11,804 with an ROI of an amazing +48.92%.

The Five day Goodwood package is available for £99. Sign up here

 

Bookmaker reviews and advice

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Getting the best price available is very important for all professional bettors and those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Today, a look at  Bet365.

Bet365 have a very good bonus offer: 100% deposit bonus up to £200 for new customers. The rollover on the bonus is 3 times the size of the deposit and bonus, within time-limits. They also offer additional periodic bonuses to existing customers. If you need an account please sign up via THIS LINK

Bet365 has most sports covered including major US sports, UK sports and many smaller leagues. Bet365 utilises proprietary software that ranks amongst the best. The sports-book design is a bit cluttered, but there are many good features once you are used to the functionality. Bet365 streams more sports than any other bookmaker.

Bet365 has a very good in-play client that bettors can use to bet on hundreds of live events daily. Some of the in-play betting markets are highly juiced, but overall it’s a great platform. Bet365 also has a fully functional mobile sports-book that you can access 24/7.

In terms of specific offers, Bet365 are particularly good in a few areas:

  • Best price on all Channel 4 races. This offer applies to all bets placed from 10am on a day when a race is being shown live on Channel 4.
  •  Back any single winner at 4/1 or more on any race televised live on Channel 4 and you have a risk free bet to the same stake on the next live Channel 4 race (up to £50). If your risk free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a risk free bet on the next live Channel 4 race.
  •  Frequent enhanced place terms, and Best Odds Guaranteed on every horse and greyhound race - every day.
  • In football, their major offers for big games, such as refunding an in-play bet if it loses, having matched the size of bet you place pre-kick off can be very good value
  • Their “unlimited places on first scorer each-way” bets, 1/3 odds is also usually great value, with competitive prices on offer
  • In addition “Bore draw money back” on a pre-match Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time or Score-cast bet on any football match sees them refund all losing bets on these markets if the game finishes 0-0

Whilst Bet365 can be one of the quickest firms in the industry to restrict accounts these offers do make retaining your account important if possible. Bet365 often have very competitive each way terms on feature horse races (e/w ¼ the odds with most of the rest of the market e/w 1/5 the odds is not uncommon) and these terms, plus the offers above, can make a difference in selecting where to bet.

For example taking Neil’s winning tip last week Amrallah, recommended at 25-1 e/w ¼ 1,2,3,4. It soon went 22/1 (and then went off 16/1) but Bet365 22/1 at a quarter the odds with the 4/1 televised offer beat the 25-1 1/5 the odds offered elsewhere in the market on the each way component of the bet when Bet365 trimmed their price

 

What is next on Betting Emporium?

The World Match-play Darts concludes this weekend, covered on Betting Emporium by Dave Buck.

Sign up for £10 for all the remainder of the coverage HERE or Get It Free

To get a refund of the £10 that you have paid simple open a new betting account with any of the bookmakers on THIS PAGE and then place any real money bet. Then send a screen shot of your first bet with them to support@bettingemporium.com and you will receive a full refund of the £10.  Claims received after 28th July will not be valid.

The England-India Test cricket series is ongoing, and coverage is FREE to registered users. The third Test is at Southampton and begins on Sunday and thoughts on the game are HERE.

“Football by Brodders” continues with recommendations from European leagues. Brodders’ thoughts are FREE to registered users

 

How has Betting Emporium done recently?

The Open Golf Championship tips included Rickie Fowler and Jim Furyk each way at 40-1 and 60-1 respectively and overall saw a 5.74% return

Wimbledon subscribers won 197 points and Nigel Seeley’s selections showed a  54.75% ROI including Petra Kvitova recommended at 16-1 each-way for the Ladies singles pre-tournament. Nigel will be back for the US Open in August. All of Nigel’s write ups, bets and results are now available for all registered users to read by clicking HERE.

Recommendations on The World Cup Package produced a profit of 77 points and an 11.19% ROI. Betting £10 a point you would have won £772.30

The Royal Ascot selections produced a profit of 182 points and a ROI of 23.3%

Since January, betting on Brodders’ football selections would see you with an ROI of 9.64% with 6 winning months out of 7.

 

Betting Emporium results across every sport since inception can be found by clicking RESULTS . Please see the Frequently asked questions section for explanations of the methodology

If you bet £10 per point on every Betting Emporium selection since launch in February 2013 you would be winning £16,449

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