Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, at Ascot, Doncaster, Newmarket and York.
- Football, the final weekend of the Premier League Season
- Cricket, the third test between England and the West Indies at Old Trafford begins today
- Golf, The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) -Tue 28th July - Sat 1st Aug 2020
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Free tip
Crusaders v Hurricanes Saturday 8.05am BST
The Crusaders are three-time defending Super Rugby Champions, the dominant side of this era of Southern Hemisphere rugby only losing 5 of 47 games in three seasons, In the New Zealand version of Super Rugby this season they have won four out of four matches only conceding 73 points, fifty less than any other team, and six tries total and come to this match rested off a bye week.
The Hurricanes fortunes have turned round having lost the first two games of the season they have won three on the spin including 29-27 versus the Blues last weekend thanks to a late try and conversation.
In week two the Crusaders won in Wellington 39-25. Though the Hurricanes have improved since and have plenty of options in attack no side has been able to restrict the brilliant Crusaders fly half Richie Mo’unga and it is the relative strength of the defences (the Crusaders is far stronger) that will make the difference here
The Crusaders at home are 1/3 outright and -11 on the handicap. It’s not the most exciting bet perhaps but until we have a full slate of sports back it will have to do. I stopped short of a 40-1 Major League baseball ante-post write up!
22 points Crusaders -11 versus the Hurricanes at 10/11 generally
Reprieve
In the recent CAS judgement, Manchester City were reprieved by a section of UEFA rules which set a five-year time limit on infractions eligible for punishment and prevented investigators from ruling on some of the most serious accusations against City. On top of that the CAS cited “insufficient conclusive evidence” on other issues.
This was UEFA’s third failure (City, PSG and AC Milan) to uphold FFP regulations and has created new doubts about the future of the approach to address over-spending by the biggest clubs and the inability to enforce them is likely to lead to a period of big club spending.
A decade ago, UEFA found that European soccer was $1.9bn in debt. The turnaround, over the last 10 years has been such that in 2017 UEFA’s clubs recorded a profit of $680 million. Financial Fair Play has enabled UEFA to ensure that clubs in smaller markets meet their debts and obligations by wielding the threat of expulsion from money-spinning European competitions but has been less effective at the big club level where it has proved to be unenforceable.
In its absence, it is in the places where it has had the most effect that the consequences will be felt: not for the clubs that can spend heavily season after season, but to the clubs that can risk their future for short-term success. FFP will have to be adapted for the new landscape emerging from this ruling.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, at Bath, Haydock, Newbury and York
- Football, the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season and the FA Cup Semi Finals
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix
- Cricket, the Second test between England and the West Indies continues at Old Trafford
- Golf, the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village
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Free tip
Hurricanes v Blues, Saturday 8.05am BST
Super Rugby Aotearoa is a domestic club tournament over 10 weeks in a round robin format (without playoffs or final) being played between the five New Zealand-based teams in Super Rugby replacing the full 2020 Super Rugby season which was suspended in March due to COVID-19
The other four teams are chasing double reigning Super Rugby Champions the Crusaders who saw far have recorded four wins from four games.
The Hurricanes started with two losses but now have successive victories against the Chiefs 25-18 away and then against the Highlanders 17-11 at home in a match that was heavily affected by the weather conditions.
The Blues go to Wellington on Saturday for the battle of who, if anyone, can now overhaul the Crusaders.
The Blues, augmented by Beauden Barrett who joined from the Hurricanes for this year, are much improved this year 3 wins out of 4 after a few years of being the weakest of the New Zealand franchises in Super Rugby, and beat Hurricanes 30-20 round 1 in Auckland and were close to the Crusaders for a long way last weekend.
The Blues have improved to the extent that they have won 7 of their last 8 matches and have covered the handicap in 6 of their last 7 matches
This should be a very tight game, and I was interested that an improving home side are underdogs in places here.
10 points Hurricanes to beat the Blues 11/10 SkyBet
Coming back
Rugby Union in the Northern Hemisphere is one of the later sports to resume competitive play with unique challenges due to proximity and impact. Premiership Rugby in England has now, because of a decision that the current season with nine rounds and the play-offs should be completed unlike French rugby that cancelled the 2019-20 season, announced a fixture schedule that will require clubs to play every four days when the season resumes on August 14. One or two grounds will be used for all the matches which, under current government regulations, will be played behind closed doors.
Competitive fixtures are scheduled for each of the 52 weekends over the next year from that point, with a new season starting on 21st November after a month of England Autumn Internationals and then running through to the British Lions Tour of South Africa next summer. The three European Champions and Challenge Cup knockout rounds are earmarked for September and October
The commercial imperative to not cancel 2019-20 games was due to the risk of a huge shortfall in broadcasting revenue if the games were not played. The downside of such a schedule though is clearly player welfare in such a physical sport with the possibility of individual playing time limits having to be enforced and at worst a reversal of a three year initiative designed to protect players. In an interview this week Bath’s Freddie Burns expressed his concerns
“Given the physicality and the attrition of the game now, to ask players to play seven games in 28 days is just complete madness."
In any case 10 players tested COVID-19 positive only last week so it at least raises the possibility of late cancellations, with no room in the revised schedule for games to be replayed.
The lockdown has exposed the financial weakness of a league that has cumulative losses of £50m. Clubs have started talks about reducing the salary cap by at least £1m next season, which would make current 25% pay cuts permanent, and ending the provision for two marquee players outside the salary cap.
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The Road to Riches returns.....
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th June
Welcome back everyone!
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, the Guineas meeting at Newmarket and meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle on Saturday
- Football, the Bundesliga season continues
- Snooker, the Championship league in Milton Keynes continues
and hopefully a whole lot more soon!
Newmarket Racing 3 Day Special (Fri 5th - Sat 7th June 2020)
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- Coronation Cup Day Friday 5th June
- 2000 Guineas Day Saturday 6th June
- 1000 Guineas Day Sunday 7th June
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Free tips
None as yet. Looking every week from this point on and will probably resume when cricket and rugby do.
Coming back
After the three month COVID hiatus professional sport is resuming behind closed doors, including from the 1st June in the UK after government agreement though it remains "up to individual sports" on when it is safe to return.
Of course this will ramp up through the remainder of June, notably with the resumption of the Premier League on the 17th June, with nine/ten fixtures per team to be played in the six weeks to the end of July, followed by the FA Cup with suggestions of the Champions League to be played out in August too. The English Championship resumes on June 20th, but it remains unlikely that Leagues One and two will complete, instead the league table settling on a points per game basis. It is unclear how bookmakers will choose to settle ante-post markets in uncompleted leagues. Watch this space for news. Elsewhere in Europe it is said to be “99% likely” that Serie A resumes on 13th June and La Liga on 12th June, both awaiting final government approval.
There could be some interesting football angles to go at. In the Bundesliga at the time of writing there have been 35 matches since the resumption, and only 8 have been won by home sides which would instinctively fit with a view that without crowds home advantage dissipates.
Football aside, while other leagues have acted swiftly to cancel the season, the Gallagher Rugby Premiership today announced that the 1`5th August is their resumption date with players returning to non-contact training this week. France's governing body, the LNR, announced that the Top 14 season has been scrapped, with the aim now being to start a new season in September. The Six Nations has been mooted to complete in October with it being highly unlikely that Southern Hemisphere sides would travel across for the Autumn Internationals, and a month in the International calendar most likely therefore being free. Amongst the “anti-transmission” measures suggested for one of the sports with the most physical contact is uncontested scrums and compulsory changing of shirts at half time
England’s cricketers have resumed training, at first as individuals but now in small regional groups ahead of Test Match series against the West Indies and Pakistan from July onwards at Old Trafford and the Ageas bowl in Southampton, venues chosen for having hotels on site for players/staff to be based and tested at to avoid travel during the games.
Australia were also due to tour for a three match ODI and three match T20 series ahead of the planned T20 World cup at home in October and November. It has not been finalised if this will now take place in September or whether Australia will avoid the long-distance travel and (currently) associated Quarantine measures in place.
In horse racing Neil Channing swings back into action for the Guineas meeting this weekend and Royal Ascot in the middle of the month (see above). The Derby has been rescheduled for 4th July.
The first eight races of a shortened F1 season were announced this week, all in Europe with the first two in Austria and two at Silverstone in successive weeks at the end of July/beginning of August. Teams will work in a “bio-secure paddock” and be segregated from the general population travelling from race to race and over race weekends. A programme for the Autumn is due to follow in the coming weeks.
Stateside, discussions continue about the MLB and a shortened season for July onwards, with the league and players union at loggerheads over the format, the players wanting a 114 game season. Owners last week proposed an 82-game schedule starting in early July. There has been no announcement about the NFL where training camps and pre-season would normally take place in August ahead of a September-January season, excpet that all teams will conduct the camps at their home facilities rather than travel en masse to camps elsewhere. The long off-season at least gives some flexibility to move the season back if required. The NBA also remains absent, though there is now the possibility that the rest of the season will be played at Florida's Disney World Resort from 31 July. Thirteen Western Conference teams and nine Eastern Conference teams will contest eight games each to determine seedings for the play-offs. There is a vote later today to approve this, or not.
In Golf, The Charles Schwab Challenge, which will begin on June 11 at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, is the first of four events on the revised schedule announced by the PGA Tour last month. Each of the events will be played without spectators. The tour has arranged for players to be shuttled to tournaments, although it conceded there might not be enough room on those flights for an entire field. The outlook for the September Ryder Cup is unclear, likely to be postponed you would think rather than run it without crowds.
ATP Tennis’ postponement was extended until July 31st in mid- May. If that holds Tennis is expected to resume at Cincinnati Open in Ohio followed by the US Open in September. Seven days after the conclusion of the American Major, the players will have to transition to the clay-courts for the French Open, which has been re-scheduled to begin on September 27. However that all would seem to depend on the health and schedules of the airline industry given the global nature of the tour.
In Snooker, a spectator less World Championships at the Crucible has been re-arranged for 31st July-16th August.
Having written all this it has to be acknowledged that across all sport plans should be viewed as fluid. Were for example easing of lockdown measures lead to a rise in R rates and at worst a second wave (which would seem most likely in the US and UK) we would have further postponements and cancellations, but for now at least we can at least try to remember the passwords to our betting accounts!
Summary
Football. The Major Leagues
- Bundesliga resumed
- Premier League from 17th June
- Serie A from 12th June
- La Liga from 13th June
- English Championship from 20th June
- English lower leagues – unconfirmed
- Ligue Un – Cancelled
- Scottish Leagues - Cancelled
Horse Racing – Resumed this week
Rugby – 15th August resumption in England, no further dates announced eg Six Nations
Cricket – Test Series v West Indies in July
Golf – USPGA resumes next week
Tennis – Early August in the US, running to the US Open in September
F1 – 8 race European season from early July
NBA Basketball - possible resumtion 31st July
MLB - possible resumption early July
NFL - currently training camps as planned in August
Snooker: Resumed. World Championships 31st July-16th August
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th March
Looking ahead, it could well be that this column won’t have much sport to cover for a while, if so we will resume when normal service is restored.
Coming up this weekend
- Racing, over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and all-weather racing at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations, for now
Free tip
Australia v New Zealand 1nd ODI Sydney Saturday 11.30pm start
After their trip to South Africa, where they lost an ODI series 3-0 Australia now play New Zealand in a three match ODI series. This is the latest finish to an international season in Australia outside World Cups since 1979 and the Australians did look fatigued In South Africa which has attracted criticism of these as “token games”. New Zealand recently completed a clean sweep in the ODI and Test series against India.
The first two games are at the SCG, Sydney, first on Friday night followed closely by this match the day after. Australia won Friday night’s game by 71 runs
We backed Labuschagne at 6-1 in a place, 5/1 elsewhere in the 3rd ODI last weekend and he is still available at 5/1 with Bet365 and Corals here.
A reminder on Labuschagne who scored 108 off 108 balls to top score in that match. As in Test cricket, Labuschagne looked equally comfortable against pace or spin, pierced the gaps expertly, ran hard between wickets, and picked the correct moments to attack or defend.
It was not a spectacular ODI innings. Australia won’t get many of those out of Labuschagne or Smith. Achieving the spectacular will be left to the likes of Warner, Finch and Maxwell. Instead it was an assured and well-paced knock, the kind that acts as the backbone of a team innings.
In the first ODI overnight on Friday Labuschagne scored 56 behind Warner 67 and Finch 60 but still well in the hunt in this market. 5/1 continues to be a value play that we should take advantage of for as long as the price persists, I expect it won’t do for many matches more for a player who is fast becoming indispensable for Australia in all formats
10 points Marcu Labuschagne 2nd ODI Top Australian batsman 5/1 Bet365 and Coral
Homegrown
The off-season summer transfer window contains an added factor this August. There is currently no agreement between the FA and the Premier League on what 25-man club squads will look like post-Brexit when the transition period ends on December 31st.
The FA wants to raise the number of homegrown players in a squad from its existing level of eight to 12, with no work-permit restrictions on the other 13. The Premier League wants to stay with 8 and have the freedom to sign the remainder from wherever they wish to do so.
The FA has the governing body’s endorsement, from which the government will take its lead. The Premier League pays the players, invests heavily in developing the homegrown talent and operates the competition in which all but one of Gareth Southgate’s current squad plays every week. Both recognise that Brexit is a historic moment for the most lucrative domestic sport league in the world and the England national team..
There has to be an approach that rewards some of the richest clubs in the world for developing English talent. Premier League chief executive Richard Masters has called for a “dynamic” solution, one that “can’t just be about quotas,” of overseas players permitted in a 25-man squad where every signing from outside the UK has to be assessed individually for their own work-permit viability. The answer will have to come from a compromise which recognises that what matters are game-time minutes for England qualified players.
Master acknowledged that a strong England team is desirable to the Premier League, and that the new system should be flexible. His opposite number at the FA, Mark Bullingham, also a recent appointment, is obliged to seize this opportunity to protect the future of the England team, on whose success or otherwise he will primarily be judged.
The percentage of total minutes played in the Premier League by England-qualified players so far this season is just over 34%, up from the all-time low of 30% last season. The corresponding figure for this season among the big six clubs falls to 27%. The change has largely been driven by Chelsea’s transfer window embargo in the summer which forced them to play academy graduates, and the faith shown in English players by the three promoted clubs, Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa.
In Spain the national team manager can choose from a league that has 60% Spain-qualified players. In France it is 50% and Italy and Germany both have more than 40%.
The government relies on the view of the FA as the governing body over the Premier League, which may well have to adapt to new rules that oblige all of them to give opportunities to the players coming out of the academies.
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,034.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Racing, over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the Six Nations
- Golf, The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and the Doha Classic
- Tennis, The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells next week
Cheltenham Festival (10th-13th March)
If you had bet £10 a point on all racing since we launched the website 7 years ago you would be winning £12,871. Join us for four days of write ups and bets by Neil Channing next week for £199 here
Free tip
South Africa v Australia 3rd ODI in Potchefstroom, 8am GMT start on Saturday
The third and final ODI in this series takes place tomorrow. South Africa are 2-0 up in the series. In the first match in Paarl South Africa defended 291 comfortably, with a Klaasen hundred in their innings. In Wednesday’s second game in Bloemfontein South Africa chased down 271 with a Malan hundred opening the innings. For a South African side that has lacked batting depth and is in a rebuilding phase, these are two potentially significant hundreds.
The South African side in this series is stronger than the side that drew recently against England
SA side stronger than side drew England particularly in the bowling ranks with Ngidi and Nortje and potentially Rabada available. Nevertheless it is unexpected to see them 2-0 up against a full strength Australian side with Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood bowling and a batting line up of Warner, Finch, Smith, Labuschagne, with Carey and Short in the side to be finishers an area post Maxwell they have had problems with.
In Potchefstroom on Saturday we should once again expect a blameless pitch and a reasonably high scoring game. In the Top Australian batsman market its no surprise to see Smith and Warner, followed by Finch at the head of affairs each at 3-1 or shorter, a combination of Smith and Warner’s class and the position of all three in the top of the order.
The value here though could be Marcus Labuschagne, available at 6/1 with Corals and 5/1 with Bet365.25 year old Labuschagne was introduced to international cricket in 2018 was then added to the Australian test side again during last Ashes series with Smith’s injury and has been a fixture in the test side ever since. In 14 tests he has 1459 runs at an average of 63. In his last nine tests he has 4 hundreds and 7 fifties and this form saw him introduced into the ODI side in the early 2020 tour of India where he scored a fifty and scored 46,56 and 41 in his three innings. So far against South Africa he scored 41 in Paarl and in the second game, a golden duck, a rare failure for a very consistent player.
He is a sporting alternative to those top of the market here at 6/1
10 points Marcus Labuschagne Top Australian batsman 3rd ODI at 6/1 Coral, 5/1 Bet365
A matter of deduction
Manchester City are now facing a Premier League points deduction as their punishment for “serious breaches” of Uefa Financial Fair Play also represents a breach of the domestic competition’s regulations.
City are ready facing the sanction of a two year Champions League ban and a €30m fine after Uefa found the club had overstated its sponsorship revenue in accounts submitted between 2012 and 2016. The potential domestic issue comes because any club has to supply true information to get a Premier League licence, and that information will have had to have matched that supplied to Uefa.
While there remains the possibility a high-priced legal battle could yet see the Champions League ban overturned, that probably won’t be the case with any Premier League punishment due to the specific situation. A points deduction would not affect any title race or see them relegated, while the Champions League race has been temporarily rendered moot.
While no one sees an expulsion from the Premier League as likely, the Football League have recently changed their rules so that any club in that situation must start again in League Two.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
