Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 3rd-4th January

Posted on 28 Dec 2014 09:57 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Happy New Year to all "Road to Riches" readers.....

Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Play-Offs: Wild Card week.  The play-offs start this weekend with four games over Saturday and Sunday on Wild Card weekend. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the superbowl sign up here

- FA Cup third round weekend with Arsenal v Hull on Sunday afternoon a repeat of last year's final. 

- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Newcastle and Wincanton.

- Darts, the PDC World Championship at Alexandra Palace. The semi finals and final as the event concludes this weekend.

- Cricket, Test matches in Cape Town (South Africa v West Indies) and Wellington (New Zealand v Sri Lanka).


NFL Playoffs and Superbowl (3rd January - February 1st 2015) - full package £40 - sign up here

Neil Channing will be providing write ups and analysis on all the games:

WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014

DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014

SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014

Playoffs and Superbowl XLIX - Write Ups and analysis £40 Sign Up Here

PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

Match by match analysis and write ups of the semis and final.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package)

£49.99 Sign Up Here


Free Tip of the Week   

This week, to complement Neil's work on the start of the play offs with NFL Wild Card weekend, a look at the first of the four play-off games Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers on Saturday evening, this time from the perspective of sub-market value.

The Cardinals (11-5) are the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs after finishing second in the NFC West having lost four of their last six games. Despite one of the league's best defenses, the relative decline in results occurred due to quarterback injuries which have stymied the points scoring potential of the team only scoring 64 points in those last four games. Current quarterback Ryan Lindley has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in the last two games, for 532 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, including three last weekend.

If this is a match up where momentum counts, Carolina have it and could well be a dangerous team in the play-offs. The defense in particular has improved dramatically through the season, returning to its 2013 form. It was ranked 24th in Weeks 1-9, then 5th in Weeks 10-17.

Opposing quarterbacks against the Panthers defense over final 4 regular season games finished: 81-of-145 (55.9%) for 815 yards (5.62 YPA) with only 3 Touchdowns & 5 Interceptions.

At the same time the Carolina offensive line, suspect all year, has been performing better and the offense has been heating up as a result. Against Atlanta last weekend Four Carolina rushers, including the quarterback, gained 40 yards or more running the ball too.

Arizona are likely to struggle to score points. We have the combination of a third choice quarterback and facing an in-form defense. This weights it quite strongly against Arizona scoring the first touchdown in my opinion, and therein lies the opportunity.

Looking at Carolina, they will try to run on Arizona and the once reliable Arizona run defense has allowed 473 rushing yards in the last two weeks. In part they will attempt to establish the run because moving the ball through the air on Arizona is difficult, they have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league in Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie.

So which running back? Well the most likely is Johnathan Stewart with 175 carries, and 806 yards in the regular season. Carolina do have Cam Newton at quarterback though, one of the best "dual threat" quarterbacks in the game with over 100 runs this season, over 500 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. As long as the offensive line protects him well, and defenses look to account for Stewart first on rushing downs, Newton is a threat every game.

The market prices up Stewart and Newton both at 10-1+ for first touchdown scorer for the game, depending where you can get on.

I'm having 10 points each:

Johnathan Stewart first touchdown scorer - at BetVictor at 10-1

Cam Newton - first touchdown scorer at BetVictor or William Hill at 12-1

 

 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

 


A New year. Some betting New Year resolutions (well, it makes a change from joining a gym. Again.)

- Sign up to Brodders' tips

Make a Brodders subscription. +£6,535 in 2014 to £10 a point stakes and a 7.65% ROI. Subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here

- Don’t be results orientated

It is easy to get in the mindset that every winning bet is a good one and every losing bet is a bad one. This is simply not the case. There’ll be many occasions when the opposite applies – some of your best bets will indeed be losing ones. Try and look objectively at a bet after the event, to see if the bet truly was value (win or lose).

- Adaptability

There’ll be many times when you decide upon a bet where you’ll be completely steadfast in your decision, and this is a normally a good place to be, as you’ll be completely confident. However, there will be times when that can be a problem, especially if you come across information that could or even should change your mind. Being adaptable and keeping on top of changing situations will only be a good thing

- Keep Records/ keep better records

There is no single thing that can improve your sports betting more than improving your record keeping. A few minutes every day to write down the bets you made and how they turned out gives so much powerful information. A surprising number of people just guess about how they are doing, and make overly optimistic assumptions and decisions based on those assumptions. It allows you to go back and look at the bets you make that win regularly and those that lose more often than they should. Once you know that you can avoid costly mistakes (cutting out some types of bets and sports entirely if neccesary) and edges that you may have.

- Learn a new statistic

There are standard stats that people know and embrace for every sport – In US Sports for example, which lead the way for depth of stats ERA and batting average in baseball, sacks and QB rating in football, points and assists in basketball. These are the tip of the iceberg.  Metric-based analysis is progressing swiftly in the Premier League here for example.

In every one of those examples above, though, those statistics are far from the best way to understand how a team or player is performing, and how they may perform in the future. There are other, far more useful stats that are widely available, easy to understand, and far more powerful as an indicator and predictor. The new year would be a great time to understand one or more new statistics. Pick a new stat, understand it, and figure out if and how it can help you be a better winner. If nothing else, doing this will help you see what the problems are with the widely used stats.I do a fair amount of baseball betting, and my task this off-season is to learn “WAR” (Wins above replacement value for players) and see if it can help me on a daily basis when looking at match ups particularly for pitchers.  


What else is on Betting Emporium?

College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart is doing write ups and analysis, free to access here

English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in the FA Cup, free to access here


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£13,292.90 (as at 22-12-14)

All bets have an ROI +5.71% and Horse Racing has an ROI +21.50%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Boxing Day-28th December

Posted on 21 Dec 2014 10:09 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Week 17. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections £25 Sign Up Here. The final week of the regular season, with the play-off match-ups being decided in the matches on Sunday night.

- The Premier League Christmas schedule sees plenty of betting opportunities with a full slate of games on both Boxing Day and Sunday 28th

- Racing, with no less than eight National Hunt Meetings across the country on Boxing Day headed by the King George meeting at Kempton followed by the Welsh Grand National fixture at Cepstow on Saturday.

- Darts, the PDC World Championship with second round matches at Alexandra Palace resuming on Saturday 27th.

- Cricket, Test matches ongoing over Christmas in Melbourne (Australia v India), Port Elizabeth (South Africa v West Indies) and Christchurch (New Zealand v Sri Lanka).


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published last week and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley are being published during the event, and Nigel has had a good start to the event on Betting Emporium. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package)

£49.99 Sign Up Here


Free Tip of the Week   

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10 Kempton)

"So there are six real contenders in this year's highlight of Christmas and one or two bookies are giving us a nice present in the shape of 1/4 odds for each-way bets. We Can safely rule out doubtful styers and out of their class Wonderful Charm, Wishfull Thinking, John's Spirit and Double Ross.
 
 Of the six who can win the King George at 3.10 on Boxing Day we have further doubtful stayers in Al Ferof, Cue Card, Champagne Fever and Menorah, but with all four of those we know they can win a Grade 1 and on this drying ground with a forgiving flat track like Kempton they may get away with the stamina issues they have. In fact too much stamina is what puts me off Silviniaco Conti a horse that wants a proper slog to bring his stamina into play, I'm going to rule out Al Ferof on the basis that he is stepping up both in class and trip and time may tell that his recent Ascot victory didn't mean that much. Would not be surprised to see him come 3rd. Menorah is a horse I have followed over a cliff in recent years, since his Arkle run behind Sprinter Sacre when I had chunks on. His jumping has often been a problem and that seems less of an issue these days. He will like the track and the ground should suit but he may get outstayed and outbattled at the end.
 
 Champagne Fever is a potentially great horse. It's a bit of a mystery how he was beaten in the Arkle. I'm not going to get involved here at these prices though. He has way the biggest stamina doubt of these and the Mullin's chaser form in England puts me off at this price.
 
 There are two I like each-way and I'm going to bet both as the place terms are so juicy.
 
 Dynaste had a physical problem when he got beaten in this race last year as the joint favourite, he then won the Ryanair over a lesser trip than this at the festival before finsihing close to Conti both at Aintree last year and on his reappearance in the Betfair Chase this year. He's won on the course and over the trip, he is versatile on ground, jumps well and is just solid. Hard to see him not giving us a run and being in the first three or four and certainly has the class to win.
 
 Cue Card was also joint favourite for this last year. He looked odds-on to win before being outstayed. This year he came back and ran poorly in the Haldon Gold Cup when the trainer had suggested he might need the run. More disappointing was the Betfair Chase run when he went off favourite. I do think that Daryl Jacob is a better rider than Joe Tizzard was and last year's defeat may have been partly due to a misjudgement of pace but we know the horse stays the trip and likes the track and I do think the stable form is a lot better now. Colin Tizzard is essentially a dairy farmer who trains a few horses and they do seem to go in streaks when he is focussed on them. I think with this horse they'll have it at it's best here.
 
 I'm having 10 Points each-way Dynaste at 8/1 1/4 123 with Hills, Sportingbet, Betfred and Bet365.
 
 I'm having 13 Points each-way Cue Card at 13/2 1/4 123 with many firms (you can get 7/1 if you are quick).
 
 Hopefully these two will pay for Christmas. Have a good one."
 

 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

 


A Quick look at NFL Total Betting

In one of Saturday night's NFL recommendations Neil said "The total here opened 50.5 and it's currently 50. 51 is a massively "key number" in NFL totals, it is twice as likely as 50 so we need to make sure we are the right side of that."

In that game, Eagles at Redskins, the match finished 27-24 for a line of 51 points, and his "overs" bet at 50.5 landed.

This prompted me to have a look at key numbers, and some of the data behind the numbers that Neil uses.

The basics:

Offering lines on NFL totals give the bookmaker a chance to offer another point spread opportunity to collect more vig, as well as give sports bettors another opportunity to beat the house. A betting total is set on the number of points both teams figure to score in one said contest. An average total in the NFL is around 37, in fact about 5% of all NFL games land on this number, making the number 37 a very important number to be around. If you like a game under you will want to try and play it at 37 or 37.5 rather than 36.5, just as if you like a game over you would want to play at 36.5 or 37, rather than 37.5.

The opportunity:

Typically totals are easier to beat than point spreads for a few reasons. First the public is not as interested in totals as betting sides in a game. Second the people that actually do take the time to research betting totals do not break the numbers correctly and do well enough research to consistently win long term. What these means for us astute sports bettors is an even better opportunity to break the houses back while betting the NFL.

The numbers:

There are 10 very common totals in football: 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, and 54.

Almost 40% of all NFL games will land on one of these key numbers. For someone like Neil, assessing games and frequently betting over/under points totals knowing these common totals, and looking at them relative to the spreads on offer, can be the key difference between taking the right or wrong price. On Saturday night, taking 50.5 was crucial.


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


What else is on Betting Emporium?

College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart will be doing write ups and analysis, free to access here

English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 20th-21st December

Posted on 15 Dec 2014 10:49 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Week 16. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here. Two weeks remain of the regular season and the play-off teams are emerging in key games.

- The Premier League continues with Liverpool against Arsenal on Sunday. Leaders Chelsea play on Monday night at Stoke. It is also the FIFA Club World Cup this weekend.

- Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Haydock, Ascot (including the Ladbroke handicap hurdle previews below by Neil Channing and the Long Walk hurdle) and Newcastle.

- Darts, the PDC World Championship with second round matches at Alexandra Palace

- Cricket, Test matches ongoing in Brisbane (Australia v India) and Pretoria (South Africa v West Indies)


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published last week and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley are being published during the event which started on Thursday. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package)

£49.99 Sign Up Here


Free Tip of the Week   

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot on Saturday - the 3.30pm race.

The Ladbroke at 3.30 at Ascot tomorrow is obviously ridiculously competitive. It does however, have 18-runners right now and providing 16 start the race we'll get 1/4 odds 1234 with all bookies...a rare Christmas present and a big edge to punters.

As with all these big field races you'd expect a decent pace so to narrow it down I'm going to focus on horses that look like staying further than the 2m trip as this could be hard work for any with stamina doubts especially if they get more rain. I like to go for stables in form and up and coming stables, form at Ascot would help but there aren't too many with that so my other main factor will be to concentrate on unexposed improvers...it's hard to run a dozen handicaps and have a enough up your sleeve to win one like this. As in all races ability to handle the ground is also high on my list, although at the moment I'm guessing it'll be nearer to soft than heavy.

I certainly respect Harry Fry the trainer of favourite Activial, but the horse was 12/1 a week ago, it isn't massively experienced and while that is great from a handicap point of view I might prefer it to be a year older.

My two start with Hello George a five year old trained by Phillip Hobbs who is in great form. Stays more than 2m and likes soft ground, this one jumps well and last time it was possibly not helped by running in a race where they took out half the hurdles due to the low sun. Decent price and definitely could be very well handicapped.

My favourite trainer right now is Dan Skelton. Like Harry Fry he is another former Nicholls assistant and they are both going to be the top two yards in the country very soon you'd have to think. He trains Shelford here, a horse that is lightly raced over hurdles, five years old, easily stays 2m4f and likes soft ground. With him staying all day it seems very hard to see this horse finishing out of the frame. The trainer worries a little bit about his jumping, he is a big rather than slick jumper, but surely he'll have worked on that. Just looks like a massively solid bet to me.

I'm having 8 points each-way Hello George at 14/1 1/4 1234 with many firms.

I'm having 14 Points each-way Shelford at 6/1 1/4 1234 with many firms.

 


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

 


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


I was christmas shopping the other day and found myself in my local Waterstones. I happened to wander past (honest) the gambling section. I found a shelf devoted to horse racing (the sport, not the betting on it), and more than half a rack devoted to poker. I found a few books on slot machines and blackjack. I found books that promised to help me pick winning lottery winners. What i didn't find was more than a couple of sports betting books.

So how does this impact the popularity of sports betting? Consider, by way of contrast, someone who has watched Poker on TV, played in some games with friends and now wants to approach it seriously. He can go to any bookstore in the country and pick up books that will give him the basics and beyond--he'll quickly learn about how to grade his starting hands, pot odds, reading opposing player's "tells", managing his bankroll, and various strategies. He can buy books from the classic staples to new tomes, he can watch live streams of perfect poker being shown each weekend and endless training videos and strategy articles are available. Indeed, his only real problem could be information "overkill" and trying to weed through competing strategic theories.

Where does a sports betting enthusiast go as he searches to improve? First, he'll have to survive the onslaught of  the industry and their chatter about "locks", "games of the year", "100,000 star plays" and so forth. Assuming that he doesn't take their advice and bet "everything he owns" on some mythical inside information play, he'll hopefully realise quickly that these aren't the answer. One of the reasons when i started these weekly columns that i wrote some theory pieces was that the neophyte sports gambler soon hits a brick wall, in terms of availability of knowledge, as he tries to learn about the discipline.

This is a bad thing not only for the would-be sports gambler, but for the business as a whole. The scarcity of theoretical information does nothing but underscore the arguments of those who sceptically view the entire world of bookmakers and players. It minimises the challenges and opportunities that sports betting presents, and undermines the appreciation of those bettors who are successful at turning a profit over the long haul. Overall, it helps perpetuate the anti-sports gambling bias inherent in the mainstream media and serves to marginalise a challenging intellectual pursuit.

Perhaps the most frustrating thing about this is that it is the fault of the sports handicapping and information industry. In the effort to turn a quick buck with hype and hot air they ignore the opportunity to educate players on the right way to approach the sports wagering discipline. The fact that the information is not there for the players who do want to learn is a massive failing of the sports information industry. It's also limiting the growth and exposure of sports gambling and thus very counter-productive in the long run.

It's a shame, since there's so much to learn. Consider the volumes that have been written on poker. If so much ink can be devoted to poker, certainly sports betting--with countless more variables--deserves a similarly serious approach. In reality, serious sports betting has more in common with understanding and profiting from the financial markets than anything else. That's why so many people who experience success in the stock market are able to translate it to sports betting, and why some of the best works on sports betting theory are in actuality financial books

 


What else is on Betting Emporium?

College Football bowl games start on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart will be doing write ups and analysis, free to access here

English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 13th-14th December

Posted on 8 Dec 2014 10:22 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 15. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here. Three weeks remain of the regular season and key games abound, helped in part by the NFL's strategy of scheduling divisional games at the close of the season

- The Premier League continues with Manchester United at home to Liverpool on Sunday lunchtime a highlight

Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Cheltenham (including the December Gold Cup), Doncaster and Lingfield.

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the sixth one day International in Pallekele on Saturday morning

- Rugby Union.  the European Rugby Champions Cup continues. Two unbeaten teams remain in the competition. Harlequins, at Leinster this weekend and Toulouse, at Glasgow


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published on Friday and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley will be published during the event. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package) £49.99 Sign Up Here

Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at Sunday's NFL match up in the AFC West between the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers, live on Sky Sports at 9.25pm

Denver can clinch the division with a win in San Diego. With a 10-3 record they are two games clear of the Chargers, and have a 4-0 win/loss record against AFC West teams, winning by an average of 14.5 points per game, including a 35-21 win over San Diego in Week 8.

What is very noticeable in the last few weeks has been a philosophical shift in the Denver offense. Previously an almost guaranteed "overs" team with Peyton Manning and the passing game they have gone under in three of the last four weeks with a strategy of relying on the running game and the defense to win games.

While the contest features two of the best quarterbacks in football, the running game should play a major role in the outcome here too. Denver’s C J Anderson, only introduced into the line up with injuries to Ball and Hillman and only the lead back in the last three weeks rushed for 335 yards in Week 12 and Week 13, and scored three touchdowns last week. Overall in three weeks he has 512 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.

Timing is everything, and he got his shot just as the team was changing focus with harsher weather, the early stages of moving away from relying on Manning and tough defensive opponents all contributing to Denver focussing on the run game

The Broncos are going for their NFL-record 12th consecutive division road victory, and should again rely on their new recipe of running early and launching the ball downfield only as required. Not only is this working well, but it will keep the Chargers passing game off the field, and time of possession and ball control away from home here is important.

Anderson is available at 7-1 first touchdown scorer here with Skybet. Writing on Friday, not all prices are up but 7-1 looks, in terms of the player's form and the way the game might play out, at least a couple of points too long. What helps play to this thought is the Broncos have a strong defense too.

They have one of the league’s best run defenses, ranking second by allowing just 72.8 yards on the ground per game. In terms of pass rush, they have 38 sacks, 4th in the NFL with both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware in double digits. What this speaks to, I think, is a better than average possibility that if the Chargers get the ball first, they might not score the first touchdown.

To summarise

10 points C J Anderson First touchdown scorer Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers 7/1 Skybet.

As prices go up before Sunday I would happily take 13/2 to get on.  


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com  

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


Using and Adapting Asian Handicaps to your Advantage (by Joe Beevers)

We have had several e-mails regarding the use of Asian Handicaps and being able to get on in certain markets. For instance we had a user who wanted to bet over 3 goals (AH) on one of Brodders' write ups but he didn't have a Bet365 account or access to a Pinnacle type bookmaker. However by betting a combination of "over 2.5 goals" and "over 3.5 goals" you can achieve the same thing.

For example: Say the recommended bet is 10 points at 3.0 "over 3 goals AH". You can use the "over 2.5 goals" and "over 3.5 goals" markets as follows:

Whatever you bet to win on over 2.5 goals you stake on over 3.5 goals (so exactly 3 goals becomes a push as on the Asian Handicap)

You could bet 5 points "over 2.5 goals" at 2.00 (which wins 5 points) and 5 points (the profit) over "3.5 goals" at 4.0 (which wins 15 points). So you stake 10 points in total. If the result is under 2.5 you lose 10, exactly 3 you push and over 3.5 you win 20 which is exactly the same result as betting the AH. You may have to play around with the figures and the odds a bit to get the exact same result but the principle is there.

Also if the recommend is AH0 (where 0 is a zero) this is exactly the same as "draw no bet". Sometimes you may be better off betting AH0 on exchances as opposed to DNB as the odds may occasionally be better and AH commission lower on exchanges as they are often keen to promote these markets. Please be aware that Betfair, with effect from December 14th, have stopped their promotional 0.75% commission rate and have reverted to standard commission rates.

We recommend the following Betting Exchanges -

Matchbook (£25 free bet) and Betfair (£30 in free bets)


What else is on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th December

Posted on 30 Nov 2014 13:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 14. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here.

- The Premier League continues with leaders Chelsea at Newcastle and Manchester City hosting Everton. It is also the FA Cup second round.

Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Aintree (featuring the Becher Chase), Sandown (the Tingle Creek) and Chepstow

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the fourth one day International in Colombo on Sunday previewed below

- Rugby Union. After the Autumn Internationals the European Rugby Champions Cup resumes

- Snooker, the final stages of the UK Championship in York.


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at the fourth One Day cricket International between Sri Lanka and England in Colombo on Sunday

In this warm up series for the World Cup (an odd choice of opponent, because conditions here are very different than England will face in Australasia in the new Year) Sri Lanka lead 2-1. In the first two games in Colombo, Sri Lanka won both comfortably before England won in a restricted overs game in the more favourable (more fast bowler friendly) conditions of Hambantota in the third game.

The fourth game on Sunday morning, our time, sees the series return to the Colombo RPS ground where Sri Lanka won the first two games. Sri Lanka rightly are strong favourites to win the game, at 4/7 and would be especially so if once again the hosts prepare a used pitch as they did for the second game of the series.

England will be without captain Alistair Cook for the game, suspended due to slow over rates. Most observers would regard this as strengthening the team because, although obviously a top class test batsman, his strike rate at the top of the order in this format is seen as reducing England's potential to score the 300+ scores required to win games under the new batting regulations that encourage power hitting.

So we have a likely England batting line up (writing on Friday) of Ali, Hales, Bell, Root, Morgan, Bopara and Buttler. 

For some time now i have considered the value in the England top batsman sub-markets in one day cricket as being in Bopara and Buttler. Why is that?

a) the top three (here Ali, Hales, Bell) are priced up to win the market, each around 7/2-4-1. Whilst of course they have first dig at making a score......

b) Sub-continent teams have the strategy of starting the England innings with a spinner. Moeen Ali apart (a worthy favourite, in great form, rock solid technique against spin in these conditions) the approach in the powerplay overs when there is no pace on the ball is tricky. Often the result is early wickets 

c) Eoin Morgan is a dangerous player, but is on a near 18 month run of poor international form. He is also priced a couple of points lower than Buttler and Bopara, not entirely logically.

and the combination of b) and c) is that Bopara and Buttler can see a lot of overs, sometimes rebuilding the innings. The back-stop is that even if the top of the order comes off, both the power hitters at 6 and 7 can score quickly at the back end which potentially gives you a way to "back door" a winning bet

So far this series Bopara has top scored in the second game (51 on the used pitch) and second top scored in the first game (65 on the fresh pitch)

Buttler failed in the first two games and just missed top scorer in the third with 55 not out to win the game

Both should give us a run for our money at very competitive prices and i regard both as fundamentally over-priced in these markets for one day games and they have been for getting on for 18 months now. The odds-setters have not deviated from pricing up according to batting order.

Some of you may be able to back Bopara as high as 8/1 with some firms but as I can't i will take the 7/1 available at Ladbrokes and on the Betfair Sportsbook

Buttler is available at 10-1 with Ladbrokes, 8-1 generally

To summarise:

4th One Day International Sri Lanka v England, Colombo, Sunday (4.30am start GMT).

Top England run scorer:

10 points Ravi Bopara 7-1 Ladbrokes or Betfair Sportsbook

12 points Jos Buttler 10-1 Ladbrokes


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Amongst the North American sports, betting on the NFL is unique bcause there is so much time between games. In baseball the line for a game only comes out the night before the game is played. Basketball and hockey lines can be out a little bit longer at times, but not much.

Lines in the NFL are out a full week before a game is played. Because the lines are posted for so much time bettors have to decide not only who they are going to bet on, but when they are going to place that bet. Some people like to make their bets early in the week – Sunday night or Monday morning. Others like to wait until just minutes before kickoff. There are advantages to both approaches. Let’s look at three advantages of each:

Betting Early

Capitalise on any mistakes – It’s not that common that NFL  point spreads are totally wrong. Often, though, there will be a line posted that doesn’t match the opinion of smart bettors. In those cases the oddsmakers will quickly adjust the spread to compensate for the heavy action on the smart side. If you make your bets later than Monday morning at the very latest – and typically on Sunday night – then those changes will have been made.

The NFL team that the public likes – usually the favourite – will draw the majority of the bets, and often times that action is heavy enough to cause the line to move. Over the course of the week it’s not uncommon to see a line for a favourite to move by as much as a field goal or even more. If you know that the team you are going to bet is likely to be a popular team, and you are confident in your opinion, then it makes sense to bet as early as you can.

Position yourself to take advantage of line moves – Even if you don’t particularly feel strongly about a game betting on them early can open up opportunities later in the week if the line does move. For example, if you bet on the favorite and the line rises significantly then the opportunity may exist to bet the middle – a very profitable approach.

Late

Better price for team the public doesn’t like – If you are betting on a NFL team that the public is against then the line on that team is likely to improve over the course of the week as the public pours their money onto the team that they like. By showing patience in terms of when you make your bet, then, you can often bet on a line that is a couple of points better than it was to start the week.

More time to prepare – When it comes to betting on the NFL, spending more time looking over a game and looking for the edge is almost always a good thing. The longer you wait to bet on a game the more time you have to handicap the game, and if you use that time well you’re going to be better off.

React to injuries and lineup changes. By waiting until later in the week to make a bet you are sure to avoid any surprising changes in the lineup – a NFL player who gets hurt in practice, an injured player who was expected to return but isn’t ready, an injury suffered in the last game that is more serious than it seemed, a benched starter, and so on. Any of those things can have a big impact both on the potential outcome of the game and how the line moves on a particular football game.


What's on Betting Emporium?

Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here free until December 1st.

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users

VCBet offer very good soccer odds and yet again are again best price both selections on the Premier League statistical anlaysis this week.

Open your VCbet account through Bettingemporium here and get a £25 FREE bet


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

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