The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th December

Note: After this week The column will resume on Friday January 1st

Coming up this weekend

• Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Leeds Utd
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament continues
• Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia

Free tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 2 Gloucester v Ulster Saturday 3.15pm

Ulster began their campaign last weekend with a 22-29 loss to last season’s semi-finalists Toulouse having led 12-0 early on, a creditable performance against one of the tournament favourites in which they scored three tries.

Gloucester meanwhile were thrashed 55-10 at Lyon. There were mitigating circumstances, as they were without the injured Danny Cipriani (who this week has announced he is leaving the club immediately), Billy Twelvetrees, Joe Simpson, Jason Woodward, Freddie Clarke, Matt Garvey, Lloyd Evans, Val Rapava-Ruskin and Jack Stanley.

Coach George Skivington also rested Ollie Thorley, Mark Atkinson, Louis Rees-Zammit, Chris Harris, Jack Singleton, Ruan Ackermann and Ed Slater giving an indication that the game was not a priority compared to others in the pool given the injury absences.

The side that played had four teenagers in the squad and six other starters under the age of 23 against a Lyon side who were unbeaten in seven Top 14 games

Ordinarily Gloucester would be a very tough place to travel, with “The Shed” roaring on the home team but a small crowd will be in place this time. Ulster look the far superior team as a Tier 1 Pro 14 side leading their domestic group having won all eight games in the new season ahead of an also unbeaten Leinster. Last season they lost in the Pro 14 final to Leinster. The side contains a number of current Irish internationals although captain Ian Henderson is injured, but nonetheless a very well-rounded side.

Gloucester are seeded in tier 4 amongst the Gallagher Premiership sides. Last year they finished 7^th having only won 8 of 22 league games, a season in which the coaching staff changed after the COVID resumption. In the new 2020-21 season they have so far won one of three games, beating Wasps but losing at Leicester and Harlequins.

Ulster are 1/3 outright favourites and -8 on the point spread.

10 points Ulster to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, 15/8 Paddy Power 7/5 Betfred

A game Changer

An 80 strong group of former rugby players is considering a joint legal action against the game’s governing bodies over the effects of concussions they suffered during their careers.

Meanwhile Rugby World Cup winner Steve Thompson and seven other former players claim the sport has left them with permanent brain damage - and are in the process of starting a claim against the game's authorities for negligence. The group includes former internationals from England and Wales who sustained head knocks during their careers. Since retiring, they are reported to have suffered symptoms such as memory loss, insomnia, migraines and depression. 

The potential lawsuit is being hailed as a “game changer”, similar to the action taken by 4,500 former American football players in 2012 against the NFL, which may be forced to pay out $1 billion in compensation.

All eight players to have come forward so far have been diagnosed by neurologists at King's College, London, with early onset dementia and probable Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).

CTE can develop when the brain is subjected to numerous small blows or rapid movements - sometimes known as sub-concussions. The disease can only be diagnosed in a brain after death, but some experts believe if history of exposure is evaluated, it is reasonable to conclude that the risk increases. The embryonic nature of the science around the issue could play a key part in the success or failure of the overall case.

It has been found in the brains of dozens of former NFL players, as well as a handful of deceased footballers, including former West Bromwich Albion and England player Jeff Astle. A re-examination of his brain in 2014 found he had died from CTE.

This week the RFU CEO Bill Sweeney said “It's a very serious moment for us. There is no scientific proof of the causal link between concussion and CTE. There are differences between American football and rugby union. We are worried about reputational risk and we need to allay people’s fears.”

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th December

Coming up this weekend

• Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Manchester City
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Hereford and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, the start of the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament
• Formula One, The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
• Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia
• Golf,  the DP World Tour Golf Championship

Free tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Pool A: Bath v Scarlets 3.15pm Saturday

The first weekend of this season’s flagship European club rugby tournament. Due to COVID-`19 delaying the end of the previous tournament twenty-four clubs from the three major European domestic and regional leagues will compete on a one-year exceptional basis.

These twenty-four teams, seeded into tiers, will be broken down into two pools of twelve. Four rounds of inter-pool play will be followed by a knockout stage. The four teams from each pool with the best points will qualify for the knockout stage. Teams finishing 5th through 8th after pool play will join the Challenge Cup at the round of 16 stage (joining eight qualifiers from the Challenge Cup pool stage)

In the game I am featuring here Bath finished fourth in the Gallagher Premiership last year and lost heavily to eventual winners Bath in the play-off semi finals and have had a difficult start to the new Premiership season, losing their first two games at home to Newcastle and at Exeter before getting off the mark with a win at Worcester. They have a second tier seeding for this competition amongst the English sides and post the Autumn International season can call on seven internationals, five of them in the forwards including Sam Underhill.

The Scarlets have a third tier seeding amongst Pro 14 teams having finished 3^rd of 7 teams in the pool behind Munster in the season postponed in March and resumed in truncated fashion in August. In the new season they are also in third place. They also welcome many internationals back

Bath are 1/4 outright and -11 on the handicap here having begun the week 1/3 and -8. I expect them to win by up to two scores.

10 points Bath to beat Scarlets by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred

What’s for  Wentz?

In the NFL we've watched former second overall draft pick Carson Wentz of the Eagles play at a high level for three consecutive campaigns between 2017 and 2019 including most of the season the Eagles won the Super-Bowl prior to his injury. He led his team to the playoffs with an injury-riddled wide receiver group last season, but the Eagles also had the 11th-ranked rushing offense and a relatively consistent offensive line.

This season’s performance is a far cry from those levels, which eventually saw him benched for second round draft pick Jalen Hurts during the loss to the Packers on Sunday Hurts has since been named the new starting quarterback and the rookie will start on Sunday versus the New Orleans Saints.

Wentz was completing just 58% of his passes (worst in the NFL among starters) and, of most alarm, led the league in interceptions (12) and total turnovers (16).

Across the franchise there are other issues affecting this performance notably big losses from Injuries. Before Week 1, the Eagles lost left tackle Andre Dillard (torn biceps) and right guard Brandon Brooks (torn Achilles) for the year. The front office re-signed Jason Peters to fill the latter position, but the 38 year old has been inconsistent at best and has also missed four games injured.

A fortnight ago Eagles lost three-time Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson and Philadelphia rolled out its 11^th offensive line combination last weekend

Secondly Wentz has suffered from his receivers form. They’ve dropped 29 passes this season, the most in the league and few of them win on the outside of the field consistently. Play calling has been an issue such as the Head Coach has publically contemplated handing over those responsibilities.

The biggest issue of all that the Eagles face is a financial one. Wentz signed a 4 year $109m contract extension last year, fourth highest in the league. If he is not on the roster in 2021 the cost to the franchise from the salary cap is $60m under the guaranteed component of the contract. For 2022 the cost would be $24m. There is an argument that this contract is a “sunk cost” and if its wrong, you should move on but in practical terms

Next year’s salary cap could be as low as $175m ($198m this year) due to falls in league revenue in a COVID year and the Eagles have $264m in committed contract liabilities for players next year. So it looks as if Wentz is on the roster to stay, but a number of other expensive players probably won’t be.

It could be a rough time ahead for a franchise that only won the Super=-Bowl three years ago.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th December

Coming up this weekend

• Football, the Premier League returns including Tottenham v Arsenal
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, the final games of the Autumn Nations Cup
• Formula One, The Sakhir Grand Prix in Bahrain  
• Cricket, An ODI between South Africa and England in Paarl
• Golf, on the PGA Tour the Mayakoba Golf Classic and on the European Tour the South African Open.

Free tip

Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Final England v France 2pm Sunday

England as expected made it to the final of this competition with wins against Ireland Wales showing similar characteristics. Lots of defence, plenty of kicking and playing territory and a dominant forward pack that is terrific at the breakdown. A very difficult side to beat, only South Africa in the World Cup final beat them up front, at which point we saw the absence of a Plan B.

France have played this tournament operating within the terms of an agreement with the Top 14 club sides that has meant that players have only been available for three fixtures this autumn so France coach Fabien Galthie named 11 uncapped players last weekend when beating Italy to make the final. Scrum-half Antoine Dupont, captain Charles Ollivon and centre Virimi Vakatawa are among those who have already played three Tests this autumn, whilst fly half Ntamack is injured. The squad for this game did not include any of the starting XV that beat England in the opening Six Nations match in February.

Back in 2018 France were the U20 World Cup winners, and players from that squad have been emerging into the senior side in 2020. This fixture is going to be a major test of France’s depth and emerging talent given the enforced absences. Meanwhile England's top-flight clubs have agreed to make their players available for the extra internationals this year.

So all this is reflected in prices for the game. England are 1/6 outright and -16 on the handicap. However their style, and the ability of teams under the modern game rules at the breakdown to restrict quick ball, mean that really comprehensive wins are difficult to achieve and England have tended not to run up scores against Tier 1 opposition in 2020.

In essentially taking France on the spread we are taking the prospects of a young team on trust of course.

10 points England to win by 1-12 point at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook, 23/10 Paddy Power,21/10 Betfred

Trade Winds

Sam Darnold was drafted with the third pick in the 2018 NFL draft by the New York Jets and has been on a series of bad rosters, in dysfunctional coaching situations and at times dealing with injury ever since. He has two years of his rookie contract remaining.

Now the Jets have a 0-11 record this season and are odds-on to select first in the 2021 draft, in a year where by all accounts a generational QB talent awaits, Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, with the assumption that a rebuilding (again) Jets organisation almost certainly with a new coaching staff will draft him leaving Darnold surplus to requirements.

This means that for a player who is still only 23 whose situation has been so bad and with the premium on finding a Quarterback that some teams are going to view him as a potential starter for them.

This has a recent precedent. Ryan Tannehill, coincidentally coached by Adam Gase for part of his NFL career as Darnold has been, was at Miami for 7 years and was traded for a 4^th rounder to the Titans who he took deep into the play-offs last season and received a $91m contract for doing so.

In terms of what a potential trade return would be for the Jets, no doubt they would try for a first round selection. This has to be viewed as unlikely though as they don’t have much leverage. If they get the no. 1 pick, everyone around the league will know they’ll have to trade Darnold.

Then we turn to the question of who would want to acquire Darnold? In no particular order a few candidates might be

Washington might win enough games to remove them from contention for a top five pick in the 2021 draft and after the failed selection of Haskins have no long term solution on their roster, and a defense stacked with top draft picks to build around on the other side of the ball

Both the Lions and Falcons have coaching changes ahead with 30+ year old quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan

At the Pittsburgh Steelers Big Ben Roethlisberger is 38, the roster is loaded and a starter/successor via the draft seems unlikely.

At the Chicago Bears it’s possible that the Bears could look to hit the reset button following another miserable season from the team’s offense.

For the 49ers, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has a $26.9 million cap hit in 2021, but only $2.8 million guaranteed.

Perhaps the option that makes the most sense is the Indianapolis Colts who are currently operating under stop gap veteran Philip Rivers and both he and 2019 starter Jacoby Brissett are free agents following this season. Indianapolis has a good roster and and a lot of cap space to use were Darnold to work out and a big second contract be required.

So there are no shortage of teams who might be interested and plenty of potential for Darnold, away from the Jets to succeed in the league.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 28-29th November

Coming up this weekend

• Football, the Premier League returns including Chelsea v Tottenham
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Autumn Nations Cup
• Formula One, The Bahrain Grand Prix  
• Cricket, the Second T20I between South Africa and England in Paarl
• Golf, on the PGA Tour the Bermuda Championship and on the European Tour the Cyprus Open.

Free tip

Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Group A Wales v England 4pm Saturday

This game will be played in Llanelli, which I begin with as it is a significant difference to playing in a packed-out Principality Stadium for this Welsh team, especially against England.

England beat Ireland 18-7 last Saturday. They defended well, they kicked a lot and in the second half when England had established a decisive advantage, they did not get out of third gear in terms of attacking because they were just determined to put pressure on their opponent. England made 255 tackles in the game compared to Ireland's 84.

Wales rested most of their first choice side and beat Georgia for their first win in seven games. Here of course their major challenges are going to re-emerge. Can they compete up front (they have selected their strongest scrummaging front five)? What are their plans in attack (appear to lack midfield options in particular)? Can they pressure England sufficiently? I doubt it.

England are 15 point favourites here, and Wales 7/1 outright. If England are able to change gears and produce a more rounded game, it’s probable they will win well. Instead their pragmatic style full of kicking (selecting both Ford and Farrell points to a territory led game) and pressure from defence means the winning margin is likely to be slimmer than under a more expansive approach, albeit at far lower risk.

10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 9/4 with Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 with PaddyPower, 11/5 Betfred

27 Days later

Under a month after Exeter achieved the domestic and European double by winning the Gallagher Premiership Final last weekend the new season got under way.

Exeter of course are favourites to repeat their win with a squad containing the depth to withstand the International and injury absences of Jack Nowell, Stuart Hogg, Jonny Hill and Henry Slade in part because of a consistent approach and low error rugby and in part because class players such as Joe and Sam Simmonds are not international regulars at this point so available every week.

Wasps, Bristol and Bath completed the top four last season, Bristol in particular displaying an exciting attacking style. Sale would have challenged them for a play-off place had they not had a number of COVID cases at the club leading them to forfeit their final match of the season.

At the other end of the table, Leicester and London Irish finished 11th and 10th respectively last season and their first priority, probably alongside Worcester and Newcastle, will be safety.

Former England assistant coach Steve Borthwick is now the Leicester first-team as head coach. For London Irish, they take up tenancy at Brentford's Community Stadium after 20 years at Reading's Madejski Stadium.

Saracens were relegated for breaches of the salary cap and their Championship season begins in January.  It will be a Premiership season without star players such as England captain Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Billy and Mako Vunipola , Elliot Daly and Jamie George.which is inopportune timing from a marketing viewpoint for a domestic game dealing with financial losses from no gate revenue.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd November

Coming up this weekend

• Football, the Premier League returns including Liverpool v Leicester City
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Autumn Championship
• Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals  
• Golf, on the PGA Tour the RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort and on the European Tour the Joburg Open.

Free tip

Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Group A England v Ireland Saturday 3pm.

In the opening game of the competition Ireland beat Wales 32-9. They dominated a disappointing Welsh pack up front and squeezed their opponents in the manner we have become accustomed to seeing. The win came with a downside though as both fly-halves Jonathan Sexton and debutant replacement Billy Burns hobbled off. Sexton and centre Robbie Henshaw are out of this weekend’s game though Iain Henderson and Jacob Stockdale could feature from the bench.

In Dublin Ireland again showed an inability to react to the unexpected and were wasteful in possession, though clearly are trying to play a less structured game than they did in the Joe Schmidt era. They look happy to try things, to offload here and there and see where it takes them, but its early days for this change in style.

England meanwhile conducted a professional six try whitewash of Georgia showing impressive forward power against their renowned scrummaging opponents. In February England beat Ireland 24-12 in Round 2 of the Six Nations. It’s tempting to see England as a stronger side now than then, especially as they appear to have selected their strongest possible side. Mako Vunipola and Kyle Sinckler are the starting props while Tom Curry and Sam Underhill come onto the flanks. In a positional change, Maro Itoje moves back to the second row from blindside.

Irealand meanwhile minus Sexton are a bit weaker than February in terms of available players except that with Ireland we know that they will be competitive up front and in the likes of O’Mahoney and Stander they have real battlers behind them. It is difficult to see Ireland cutting England open too much. Meanwhile England who only scored 18 tries in 14 Tests v Ireland from 2006-2017 have scored 18 tries 18 in 4 fixtures since 2018

England are -12 on the handicap which weather permitting I think they can exceed. A win by 2-3 scores seems most likely to me

Most effectively done by half stakes (5 points each) England to win by 11-15 and 16-20 points each at 11/2 with Betfred, or

10 points England to win by 11-20 points at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power.

Flowering

A sixth bottom-half Six Nations finish in seven years may not indicate much progress for Scotland in 2020ble but a sign of the progress they have made since their early exit from the 2019 World Cup is that their win over Wales in Llanelli to end the tournament meant that they had recorded three successive victories in a Six Nations campaign for the first time.

They started the Six Nations in February with a defeat in Dublin after Stuart Hogg dropped the ball in the act of scoring and then came a close second to England in terrible conditions in Murrayfield Scotland’s head coach, Gregor Townsend, was under pressure for the first time since taking over in 2017 and had dropped one of his few world class players, fly half Finn Russell, for disciplinary reasons.

The form at the back end of the Six Nations might not put them in the same territory as England and France but in the just started Autumn Nations Cup they will have home advantage against the French, the fixture that should decide who finishes first in the group. With Russell back into the fold when fit there is reason for more optimism but even more encouragingly this week Scotland’s forwards were described as “the best pack Scotland have had since the 84/90 Grand Slams” which for an outfight frequently regarded as lightweight up front is a big difference. Now they have a front five that compete with the big sides, a top class openside in Hamish Watson for the breakdowns and the fast developing Jamie Ritchie at 6.

Eyes on outright prices for the 2021 Six Nations maybe…

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Betting Emporium results

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase