Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, FA Cup Quarter Finals
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Honda Classic at the PGA National on the USPGA and the Kenya Open.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free tip
Six Nations France v Wales Saturday 8pm
In France’s narrow loss at Twickenham last weekend we watched a match at a level above anything else seen so far in the Championship and the most exciting half of play we’ve seen in a long time in Northern Hemisphere International rugby.
France did fade in the last 20 minutes, which is somewhat of a habit, and indicative that they are not the complete package yet, being predominantly a young team but give it those few years until their home Rugby World Cup in 2023 and they are going to be serious contenders. Not only do they have multiple play-makers and match-winners from 9-15 but they re led superbly and have more talent up front in this generation than in previous teams of the last decade.
France have got plenty to play for here. With their postponed game against Scotland yet to be played, they are still able to win both games and potentially win the Championship.
Wales were clinical in Rome, scoring 7 tries and in style and form a far cry from the side that lost 10 of their first 13 tests under Pivac and 7 out of 10 Tests in 2020. With four wins out of four in this Championship they are a win here away from one of the more surprising Grand Slams!
What is notable is that they have scored 17 tries in 4 games, albeit assisted by playing against 14 men twice, and helped by having a brilliant young finisher in Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing and with George North rejuvenated playing in the centre. Coming up against the French Shaun Edwards coached defense will be a big test.
The fact that Wales are going to have to raise their performance further is indicated by France being 1/3 outright and seven to eight point favourites here. I do expect them to win, and potentially this could be quite high scoring. France by a score or two looks reasonable.
10 points France to win by 1-12 points 2.9 on the Betfair Exchange 9/4 Betfair Sportsbook and 7/4 Betfred
CVC
CVC’s deal with the Six Nations is for a 14.3% share (an exact seventh share) that is worth £365 million. For the RFU, which receives the biggest payment, it equates to £95 million being paid over five years.
CVC has a slice of the combined shared commercial revenue from the six unions that make up the Six Nations and it can influence who the RFU and sell its TV rights and sponsorship to and the six unions have come together to roll their rights for their autumn Tests and the Six Nations into one.
CVC only has one vote in seven on commercial deals. So if, as is pretty much guaranteed, the new TV deal for the Six Nations takes some of the games away from free-to-air TV, this cannot be said to be CVC’s doing. It would require CVC to bring at least three of the unions with it to influence the outcome of a deal.
What the unions have done, in effect, is sold off a share of their future income for a large, more immediate payment presumably used to trigger growth in the game and fill the hole caused by Covid-19.
The single biggest increase in earnings for CVC and the unions is not going to be from the Six Nations Championship but, instead, from the autumn. In future years the Autumn Nations Cup will involve the big southern hemisphere nations and the tournament’s value will grow.
CVC will need to make Test rugby work harder and it believes it can do that with better marketing and use of data. It is widely recognised that the game’s personalities are hopelessly under-promoted. in the meantime, bought itself a lucrative and reliable income stream.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the Six Nations Championship continues
- Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Dubai, Mexico and Monterrey
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
Next week our Cheltenham four-day package, get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Six Nations, Scotland v Ireland Sunday 3pm
This should be a very close game. Scotland of course began the Championship with the huge underdog win at Twickenham and narrowly by a point at home to Wales playing with 14 men for most of the second half. With the Paris game postponed a fortnight ago they might be a bit undercooked but will be fresh with a side that looks genuinely competitive. The pack is not a weakness, the back row is tremendous and of course in Russell and Hogg the back line has some genuine class.
Ireland lost to Wales in Cardiff first up, playing an hour with 14 men, then lost at home to France before beating Italy 48-10 in Rome. Ireland remain a bit of an enigma, never quite playing a convincing attacking style that allows them to dominate against the top sides, a bit of a hangover from the Joe Schmidt era where a side at its peak got results with a very regimented approach but are they are experienced and nuggety and gradually introducing younger talent into the team.
The interesting thing here is that Scotland are home underdogs. Of course current circumstances mean there is a whole debate to be had about lack of home advantage for crowd-less games but it still raised my eyebrow.
I expect this to be a one score game, either way. Scotland are +2 on the handicap and outright Ireland are 8/11, William Hill offer Scotland at 5/4.
10 points Scotland to beat Ireland at 5/4 with William Hill
Changes
UEFA is considering plans to overhaul the first stage of the Champions League proper amid concerns that the competition's leading clubs often qualify from their groups with games to spare.
UEFA want to change the group stage in a way that would create more games (which is not going to be popular with clubs or their managers) but also more games that matter, hence providing greater revenue and more fan engagement. They are suggesting replacing the current system of eight mini-groups with one large league table for all the clubs involved in the group stage. They would then play ten games each and qualification for the knockouts would be determined by their league standing.
One of the options under consideration is that the Champions League could become 36 teams after the current broadcast contract expires in 2024, that enlarged group stage would see the first eight teams immediately qualify for the knockouts, and then the teams ranked ninth to 24th enter a playoff.
The Premier League is believed to have discussed the potential changes, in addition to a new proposal that could see as many as six English clubs qualify for the Champions League in the future.
The system would still determine qualification for all European tournaments by domestic league position (first to seventh for the Premier league), but UEFA can then push the clubs with the strongest historic co-efficient up into their most elite competition depending on a comparison of the strength of co-efficients relative to clubs finishing in the same position in other European Leagues. However, they would still need to finish in the top seven to have their co-efficients considered, and no more than six English clubs would be allowed to qualify for the Champions League in any given season.
It remains to be seen whether all of the plans go ahead, but if UEFA can receive backing from the Premier League and its continental counterparts, we could be watching a very different Champions League in 2024.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Southwell
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Chile, Marseille and Qatar
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Millwall v Blackburn, Championship, Saturday 3pm
Gary Rowett’s Millwall sixth in 10th place in the Championship table after two thirds of the season ans have been draw specialists, with 16 draws in 31 games. Until Saturday’s loss at Barnsley they were eight games unbeaten, though five of those results were draws. They bounced back to beat Preston 2-1 on Tuesday night.
They aren’t a prolific side, top scorer Jed Wallace has 7 goals and they’ve only scored 34 overall, but they are solid defensively, only conceding 31 goals or a goal a game on average
Tony Mowbray’s Blackburn side now sit 15th after their 1-0 loss at Reading on Tuesday night. They are right at the bottom of the form table with one point in their last six games, a run that has seen speculation about the manager’s future. Blackburn can score goals, 46 so far this season with (probably) Premier League bound Adam Armstrong having scored 20 of them. Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott and newly returned from injury Bradley Dack occupy the other attacking positions and five goals scored in the last six games is a poor return for that sort of attacking talent.
There might not be many goals in this game, but given the relative form of the sides 6/4 looks an interesting price
12 points Millwall to beat Blackburn at 6/4 with Betfred and William Hill
Revision
The EPCR have confirmed that the Champions Cup Rugby tournament will go to straight to a round of 16 after tournament organisers announced the revised format for the knockout phase.
The last two rounds of the group stages were cancelled when the French government prevented its Top 14 teams from taking part in cross-border competition due to COVID fears.
The round of 16 will be staged on the weekend of April 2nd-4th with the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final in Marseille taking place as scheduled. A draw made up of the eight highest-ranked clubs in Pool A and Pool B at the time of last month’s suspension will be held on March 9 to determine the line-up for the next two rounds.
Teams from the same league cannot be drawn against one another and those sides that won both pool games on the field (Wasps, Racing 92, Leinster, Bordeaux-Begles and Munster) are guaranteed a home match in the round of 16.
For the Challenge Cup, the eight highest-ranked clubs from the preliminary stage at the time of the suspension and the eight clubs which have not qualified for the knockout stage of the Champions Cup will compete in a round of 16.
The knockout stage qualifiers are:
Racing 92, Leinster Rugby, Wasps, Bordeaux-Begles, Munster Rugby, Lyon, Toulouse, La Rochelle, Scarlets, ASM Clermont Auvergne, Bristol Bears, Exeter Chiefs, Edinburgh Rugby, Gloucester Rugby, RC Toulon, Sale Sharks.
The schedule is as follows:
Round of 16 April 2-4t
Quarter-finals: April 9-11
Semi-finals: April 30, May 1-2
Final: May 22
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Rugby Union, the latest round of Six Nations matches
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the WGC at the Concession Club in Florida and the Puerto Rico on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Lyon, Rotterdam, Qatar and Buenos Aires
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 202
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Six Nations Championship Wales v England Saturday 4.45pm
Wales lead the Championship with two wins from two. Of course they have been slightly fortunate with opponents in both games having a red card in the first half and Wales pulled away from Ireland and Scotland in the last quarter of matches when the extra main told.
In the Autumn Nations Cup, when Wales were at their lowest ebb, Wales lost to England 24-13 at Llanelli and didn’t create much. Now, with some improved form, senior players back and England’s form at the start of the Championship disappointing they are only 7 point underdogs here.
For Wales, whilst the suspicion remains that some of the major players are moving past their best, for now the team certainly looks stronger for the return of the senior players from injury. Only 6 of the team from the autumn start this match, important for a country that doesn’t have the depth of talent pool of France and England. Whilst Wales have yet to embark on the wholesale rebuilding that looks inevitable ahead of the next Rugby World Cup they have at least unearthed what appears to be a major talent in the winger Louis Rees-Zammit who has shown his finishing in both games so far.
England of course were dreadful against Scotland, and performed no better than expected against Italy with key players such as Farrell and Vunipola looking well below par. They should have the edge here in the tight five with Vunipola, George and Sinckler back and the defence remains pre-eminent. However despite these strengths there has been no real sign of attacking brilliance, both in general and especially against Scotland and Italy.
This should be tight, but I would expect England to have the edge and win by a score or two.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred and BetfairSportsbook, 7/5 PaddyPower
Watt’s the matter
J J. Watt, the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is leaving the Houston Texans after 10 seasons wanting a chance to compete for the Super. The Texans, a team in transition (or turmoil) with a new general manager, a new coach and a disgruntled quarterback, agreed to let the face of the franchise for the last decade become an unrestricted free agent and acknowledged the reality of how deeply the veteran defensive end still wants to play for a championship contender instead of being in a rebuilding situation.
So where will he play in 2021? US betting markets have the Steelers as favourites ahead of the The Packers and Buccaneers, the Ravens and the Bears. However you could make the case for the Bills, Browns and Titans too, amongst others
While the Steelers make sense, given the presence of his brothers, T.J. and Derek in the roster, Pittsburgh has a serious salary cap problem in 2021 and they look a bad favourite to me. Watt’s likely objective to get a Super Bowl ring will be harder to achieve in Pittsburgh than in places like Green Bay (in his home state of Wisconsin) or Tampa Bay.
Wherever Watt goes, he’ll bring not just ability but leadership and buzz. Although he’s far closer to the end than the beginning of his career and will therefore most likely not be an every down player, Watt can sell tickets and jerseys and create a bond with a city, as he did in Houston..
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Everton and Arsenal v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad next week
- Golf, the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Cordoba and Montpellier
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
India v England 3rd Test, Ahmedabad starting Wednesday 24th February
With the series tied at 1-1 India and England move to Ahmedabad for the 3rd and 4th tests, the third test beginning next Wednesday. This is Ahmedabad’s 1st test since 2012 in a huge ground where the pitch used to play low and slow. This however has an added variable as it’s a Day/Night Pink ball test starting at 2pm local with around half the play either at twilight or under lights.
In one previous pink ball Test in India, albeit in Kolkota, no India spinners took a wicket in the win over Bangladesh. Typically the world over pink ball tests produce seam friendly conditions for at least part of the play and therefore here the pre-eminent skills of James Anderson and Jasprit Bumrah for their respective sides should be in play with both having been rested for the second test match in Chennai with an eye specifically on the Pink ball test
Of course we should still expect a toss bias in terms of the team batting first, but this far ahead of the game we can possibly expect a fresh pitch unlike the sandy turner produced for India to get back into the series in Chennai. Irrespective of that England were out-played anyway.
I am writing ahead of most sub-market prices being posted for India and England top bowler. The case for both Anderson and Bumrah in those respective markets is pretty clear: Anderson is still England’s best seamer at the age of 28 and his 3-17 in the second innings of the first test on a pitch offering him no help was a match-winning effort. Bumrah took three England wickets in the first innings of the same match. Both performances notable because over the course of the match spinners took 23 of the wickets to fall.
Betfred are up early and have Leach favourite over Anderson for Top England bowler. This looks odd for a first innings before the pitch wears and of course with the pink ball and probably not conditions favouring the spinners early on
10 points James Anderson Top England bowler at 11/4 with Betfred
Floodgates
The NFL lags behind other major US sports in terms of huge player trades. First round draft picks do get swapped in the NFL, but it’s been rare to see two players of significance traded in the same deal.
One of the big reasons why is the concept of dead salary cap NFL contracts often have big bonuses and clauses that made it punitive to the team to trade away a marquee player, especially early in the contract.
The Rams broke the norm by dealing Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford in a swap of starting quarterbacks. The Rams included two future first-round picks and a third-round pick to provide Lions value to take on Goff’s contract and ease the impact on Stafford’s dead cap that Detroit carries forward. For the Rams, a side with a superb roster but probably without a Quarterback that could help them win a Superbowl, it’s a win now move. For the Lions, the start of a long term rebuild.
Now it seems more trades will follow. The Philadelphia Eagles are actively trying to trade Carson Wentz, and in doing so will incur a $33.8 dead salary cap hit for 2021, the biggest in NFL history and over double what the Lions are paying to not have Matthew Stafford playing QB in Detroit this year.
Teams have never shown a willingness to make that kind of move before. What the Rams did in sending Goff to Detroit may have opened the floodgates to other big moves.If the Houston Texans ever decide to acquiesce to Deshaun Watson’s desire to leave the team, they’ll also have to carry some major dead cap money. The same is true of the rumours out there about the Raiders and Derek Carr or the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo and even Russell Wilson of the Seahawks is agitating. But the Lions proved willing to take on the huge contract for a hefty sum of draft capital. The unusual move seems to be a catalyst for other moves now..
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
