Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup 4th round
- Racing, over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter and all-weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield
- Golf, the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA, The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines
- Tennis, the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Cricket, the fourth Test between South Africa and England in Johannesburg
NFL The Super Bowl
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami, write ups including all of Neil Channing's prop bets costs £25 available here
Six Nations (1st Feb-14th March)
The full package, outrights, specials and all the match write ups with details of all the bets that we have is £50 available here
Free tip
FA Cup 4th round
Brentford v Leicester Saturday 12.45pm
Leicester of course had terrific form until Christmas, albeit performing above the norm in terms of chance conversion (Vardy’s purple patch) and defensive trends (Soyuncu and Evans protected by Ndidi) but a tough run of fixtures over the break was the beginning of a reversion to the mean for their results. Losses to Manchester City and Liverpool weren’t a surprise but the congested run of fixtures has taken its toll on a young squad playing a high pressing, possession-based game. Ndidi has been a significant absence, albeit returning to fitness now.
In Leicester’s last nine Premier League games they have won only 3, with two draws for 11 points out of a possible 27. They rotated heavily, 9 changes from the game a few days earlier, in beating Wigan 2-0 at home in the third round and this fixture is sandwiched between a Premier League game where they performed well, once again moving the ball at pace albeit West Ham were faily lacklustre opponents and the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi final at Villa next midweek, a tight contest, so we can expect significant rotation here as well.
Brentford away is a tough draw, a side in the top 4 in the Championship having only conceded 21 goals in 28 league matches. In their front three of Watkins, Benramha and Mbuemo they have a trio who have scored 18,5 and 11 respectively of Brentford’s 44 goals so far this season, the latter two more evidence of Brentford’s successful analytics-based recruitment strategy of several years standing under Benham
Brentford are backable at 3/1 here against an odds-on away team in the midst of a tough schedule and with other motivations, potentially a game away from Wembley next Wednesday.
10 points Brentford to beat Leicester City at 3/1 with William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
Decision time
This year Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards, going over 5,000 but also threw over 30 interceptions. It was also the last year of his rookie contract. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face a big decision this off-season. Firstly some context, it was Winston’s first season with a new coach and he hasn’t had very good coaching before this. He has a bad Offensive line that didn’t help. Conversely he has two very good top receivers in Evans and Godwin. Everyone is well aware of Winston’s propensity for poor decisions and interceptions but we also have to acknowledge Winston’s more talented than at least half the NFL’s starting QBs.
So what are the Buccaneers’ options?
Option 1A: Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag. Winston won’t be allowed to leave for nothing, he is too too valuable and they can get too many draft picks for trading him. This tag let’s Tampa Bay try to work-out a new deal while seeing if someone will give them a haul of picks (minimum 2 1st rounders) for him. There will be teams willing to pay a hefty price including a big contract to get Winston.
Option 1B: Exclusive Franchise Tag: This means only the Buccaneers can negotiate a new deal with Winston and the cost of the tag is a little higher. Whether they use exclusive or non-exclusive will say a lot about how they feel about him and his progression.
Option 2: Long term deal. This is still a decent possibility, but not a strong one. This is a boom-bust option for the franchise.
Pros: Based on Winston’s volatility of performance, Tampa Bay could sign him for a discount below top price. If they can pull that off and get “Good Jameis” under Arians at a decent price, this could be a huge result.
Cons: If the Buccaneers call it wrong, it could put them in an awful position for the next few years and handicap them terribly with a high priced quarterback limiting their ability to build their roster. The risk is incredibly high on a long term deal so that’s why the tag is probably more likely.
The secondary factor here is that if you tag Winston and he catches fire next year, you’re going to really have to pay him the following season. The tag may save money and buy time but it could really cost them in the end if they call it wrong.
Do the Bucs see progress & truly believe in Winston? What’s Winston’s asking price? If those 2 things align, a deal will get done.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester United
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- NFL Conference Championships in the Play-Offs
- Rugby Union, the final round of Pool Games in the European Champions Cup
- Golf, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA, The American Express Championship at PGA West, California
- Tennis, the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Cricket, the third Test between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth
NFL The Super Bowl
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rigby Pool matches
Ulster v Bath 3.15pm Saturday
This weekend sees the last round of pool matches.
Ulster are in line to claim one of three runners up spots and reach the knockout stages for the second year running, they have 4 pool stage wins in 5 games and 17 points, their sole defeat co ing last weekend last weekend at Clermont Auvergne 29-13 where Ulster were left rueing missed first half opportunities.
Bath have lost 5 of 5 pool matches and with a constant schedule of Gallagher Premiership games (mid-table currently with 4 wins from 8) to come and absences likely during Six Nations could rotate heavily this match.
Last weekend against Harlequins in this competition Bath picked a young team, making no less than 14 changes to the starting line-up which lost the West Country derby away to Gloucester in the Premiership the weekend before. and lost 19-25 at home.
Ulster have a considerable home advantage in Belfast,are 2nd in their Pro 14 pool behind Leinster with 7 wins from 10 matches and have one of the stand out players in European rugby so far this season in John cooney a scrum half with nine tries to date
Ulster should be several scores too good for Bath given the visitors likely line up. Indeed the handicap spread has them at -23 points and I intend to play the winning margin across two ranges of scores this weekend
6 points Ulster to win by 21-25 points at 5/1 with SkyBet and William Hill
6 points Ulster to win by 26-30 points at 11/2 with SkyBet and William Hill
Youth Movement
Despite the continuing success of 40-year-old Drew Brees the NFL has seen a youth movement at quarterback this season. More quarterbacks age 27 or younger are starting, and winning, games this season than ever before.
According to the NFL, 289 starts have been made this season by quarterbacks age 27 or younger, by far the most in any season since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. In the regular this season 145 games were won by quarterbacks age 27 or younger, again by far the most in NFL history.
The results don’t change if the cutoff age is changed to 26 or 25: However you define “young,” this has been the most productive season in NFL history for young quarterbacks.
From 22 year old Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson and promising rookies like Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones the league has seen a very promising influx of young passers.
Quarterbacks today (especially very high draft picks) are expected to either start out the gate, or given a very short leash in terms of performance. Very, Very few quarterbacks will have the luxury of sitting for three years (e.g. Aaron Rodgers) to learn from a star veteran. It’s not unusual now to see a high draft pick get benched/traded/released if that person don’t meet expectations immediately.
On the flip side..NFL fans of some franchises have had to endure the downside of this trend with players like Winston, Mariota and Rosen providing at best mixed performance.
For the successful examples, part of the reason for their success is their low salary and ability for teams to build a good roster around them. Once they get paid on their second contract after 4-5 years of their rookie deal then less of the salary cap can go to other players.
If a team, through a combination of scouting skill and luck does hit on a quarterback on a rookie deal, the team has around $30m more per year on the salary cap compared to a second contract quarterback. That lets a team afford three more Pro Bowl players at other positions out of 22 starters and can make a big difference as we have seen with the Ravens this year (recruiting Earl Thomas, Mark Ingram and Marcus Peters) onto a roster led by Lamar Jackson.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
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English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Liverpool
- Racing, over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- NFL the play-Offs Divisional Round
- Golf, on the USPGA, The Sony Open in Hawaii and on the European Tour the South African Open
- Tennis, The ATP ASB Classic in Auckland
- Cricket, the third Test between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth starts on Thursday
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby resumes with the penultimate round of Pool matches
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Sunday 3.15pm
Racing 92 v Munster
In the toughest pool in this year’s competition Munster go to La Defense and the new indoor stadium in Paris to face top of the pool Racing 92 who have three wins and a draw from their four games and are top of a pool also containing defending champions Saracens
Racing’s draw was in Limerick against Munster (21-21). With 17 points so far they have a big incentive to aim for the bonus point win as they are currently only potentially the fourth seed for the knockout stages, with the fourth best record of the four unbeaten sides behind Leinster, Toulouse and Ulster.
Munster have 11 points in the pool after their narrow loss at Saracens before Christmas. They are going to need to win their last two games to try to get one of the three best runners up spots.Their last pool game is at home to the struggling Ospreys where they would expect a bonus point win.
So far in the pool Racing have scored 131 points but have played the Ospreys twice scoring 40 points on each occasion, Munster have only scored 69 points but they have also only conceded 52 points. This speaks to a traditional strength, where Munster have a very solid 6-8-9 axis (O’Mahoney, Stander and Murray). However the team has more strings to its bow with the introduction of Stephen Larkham to the coaching team who has brought more flair to the back line with a willingness to off-load. This bodes well for their ability to score points in what will be perfect conditions here.
Racing are 8 point favourites on the spread, and should win, but Munster’s strong defense and greater point scoring potential mean they might keep it closer than many expect.
10 points Racing92 to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 with PaddyPower and 6/4 Betfred
Back to front?
Last off-season two Pro Football Focus data scientists published a report that focused on the impact of coverage and pass rush on an NFL team’s defense. They found that a defense’s coverage ability had a stronger correlation to success than its ability to rush the passer. Their conclusion ran counter to conventional wisdom as the majority of teams covet dominant pass rushers and pay them accordingly.
Heading into the Divisional round this weekend two of the three favourites in the AFC Baltimore and New England have constructed their defenses with the secondary rather than the pass rush in mind, as a way to seek to counter the modern offenseive trend in the NFl towards young big armed quarterbacks who thrive in the passing game.
Both teams allocated below average amounts from their 2019 salary cap to edge rushers and allowed high-priced rushers like Trey Flowers and Za’Darius Smith to leave in free agency. The Ravens used their extra resources to sign free safety Earl Thomas and trade for Marcus Peters in October. With Thomas and Peters joining Jimmy Smith and slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens now have four former first-round picks in their starting secondary. New England have star cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Devin McCourty, two of the highest-paid players at their respective positions.
The Ravens have pressured Quarterbacks in unconventional ways. Baltimore enter the play-offs with a 44% blitz rate, the highest in the league over the regular season. New England ranked ninth, at 29% but have also sent all-out blitzes with zero coverage to great effect all season. All that blitzing has allowed both teams to consistently create pressure without much elite edge-rushing talent.
In the medium term there can be downsides to this approach, year-to-year performance among defensive backs has a much higher variance than quality edge rushers. Some of the most effective units have exemplified the kind of impact a back-to-front construction can have when things go right. Conversely the 49ers for example, who were able to recruit the de facto defensive rookie of the year with the second pick in last year’s draft, Nick Bosa have shown this season that a great pass rush can still carry a defense. It could be that at the end of the month we will see two different approaches in action in the Super-Bowl.
The Play-offs are underway and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the third round of the FA Cup
- Racing, over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and all-weather racing at Kempston and Lingfield
- NFL Wild Card weekend at the start of the Play-Offs
- Golf, on the USPGA, The tournament of Champions in Hawaii
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane, Shenzhen and Qatar
- Cricket, the second Test between South Africa and England in Cape Town
NFL Playoffs 2019 including Championship Games
The Play-offs begin this weekend and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
Free tip
FA Cup Ante-post
The third round of the FA Cup this weekend and a look at the ante-post market for the competition. In nine out of the last ten seasons a “top six” side has won the Cup (the exception Wigan in 2012-13) but also in that time a variety of lesser fancied sides have made the final, including Watford last year and before that Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Hull City, Stoke City and Portsmouth in the last decade alone.
Of course the Cup as a competition doesn’t have the prominence it had previously, and where I tend to start whittling down the short-list for value is to accept that those sides battling at either end of the table will have other priorities. We currently have seven sides in Europe (Champions League four, Europa League three including Wolves) and as many as nine sides within four points of the Premier League bottom three.
For the top sides squads are deep and strong, so they can fight on multiple fronts and significant team rotation can be withstood remaining competitive. It’s not uncommon to see lesser sides with other priorities approach the cup half-heartedly, both in team selection and on the field.
My short-list begins with the logic that if there are sides who aren’t going to hit the top six and aren’t going down then they should be all out to try to win the competition. This doesn’t always follow, I have regular head scratching episodes for these teams who prioritise three Premier League points a few days later over progressing in the cup.
Anyway this season’s shortlist
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Everton
Sheffield United are the best placed, in 8th position as I write having only lost 4 games so far this season, with a manager who emphasises game by game commitment and a squad primarily with a grounding in the lower leagues. I wouldn’t expect them to be challenging for the top six all season, but would expect them to take the Cup seriously.
Crystal Palace in 9th are a less solid proposition defensively but there is no reason why they shouldn’t look for a deep run in the competition.
Newcastle are 13th, with three wins in the run up to Christmas taking them to a position of safety. They are the least prolific of these sides, with 19 league goals in 17 games.
Everton under Ancelotti are presumably going to improve quickly but have the drawback here of being drawn away to Liverpool in the 3rd round.
The shape of the market is as follows
Manchester City 3-1
Liverpool 6-1
Tottenham 7-1
Chelsea 8-1
Manchester United 12-1
Leicester 14-1
Arsenal 14-1
Wolves 25-1
Everton 33-1
West Ham 40-1
Crystal Palace 50-1
Sheffield United 50-1
Newcastle 50-1
Bar 66-1
Each way terms are ½ 1,2. Of course it is the each way aspect that appeals as the likelihood is that the cup will be one by one of the big sides, and any selection is going to need some fortune with the draw. On value grounds though, and looking at where else teams might be focussed on, I will take these two sides
5 points each way Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally
5 points each way Sheffield United to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally
The IPL Auction
The 2020 IPL which begins in April will be the 13th season of the competition which was won in 2019 by Mumbai Indians.
Pat Cummins became the most expensive overseas purchase in Indian Premier League (IPL) history as the Kolkata Knight Riders spent more than £1.6 million on the Australian fast bowler in the 2020 IPL Auction. Cummins, is number one in the ICC Test bowling rankings and his pace and accuracy marked him out as a standout player in the auction.
England limited overs captain Eoin Morgan was also bought by the Knight Riders most likely to be their captain and KKR look to be one of the early favourites with Morgan, Narine, Russell and Cummins their coterie of marquee overseas players.
There was also a big deal for all-rounder Sam Curran, who was bought by the Chennai Super Kings. Australian Glenn Maxwell, seam-bowling all-rounder Chris Morris of South Africa and West Indian left-arm fast bowler Sheldon Cottrell were three of the other marquee purchases as a number of high-profile names went under the hammer at the event in Kolkata.
Morgan will be joined at the Knight Riders by budding star Tom Banton, with the Somerset opening batsman set to get a first taste of T20 cricket’s premier franchise competition in 2020 after receiving a £110k deal.
Chris Jordan, Tom Curran, Chris Woakes and Jason Roy were also purchased in the auction, taking the English contingent in next year’s competition to 13. Harry Gurney, Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali and Jos Buttler were all retained by their teams before the auction.
The five biggest signings of the auction were:
£1.6 million: Pat Cummins, Kolkata Knight Riders.
£1.15 million: Glenn Maxwell, Kings XI Punjab
£1.1 million: Chris Morris, Royal Challengers Bangalore
£910k: Sheldon Cottrell, Kings XI Punjab
£855k: Nathan Coulter-Nile, Mumbai Indians
England players will play in the IPL in 2020 as follows:
Royal Challengers Bangalore: Moeen Ali
Kings XI Punjab: Chris Jordan
Delhi Capitals: Jason Roy, Chris Woakes
Chennai Super Kings: Sam Curran
Sunrisers Hyderabad: Jonny Bairstow
Kolkata Knight Riders: Eoin Morgan, Tom Banton, Harry Gurney
Mumbai Indians:
Rajasthan Royals: Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, Tom Curran
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches: The Christmas period
Happy Christmas to all readers, after this weekend the next edition will be on Friday 3rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League Matches include Manchester City v Leicester City and Tottenham v Chelsea
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and all-weather racing at Lingfield
- NFL Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Australian PGA Championship
- Cricket, the first Test between South Africa and England at Centurion starts on Boxing Day
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
The Welsh Grand National, Friday 27th December Chepstow 12.30pm by Neil Channing
I'm having 12 Points each-way Elegant Escape at 9/2 1/4 1234 with SkyBet, Ladbrokes and Betfred.
The Brady Bunch
Despite three losses in their last six games, the New England Patriots remain in their usual December position: atop the AFC East and positioned as one of the top seeds in the conference, this time with a 11-3 record. Yet you can’t help but look at Tom Brady’s performance this season and feel like the six-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has lost a step. A closer examination shows Brady’s drop is dramatic enough to make him an average passer at best in 2019.
Brady has been named to the Pro Bowl 14 times in his 20-year career, but the 42-year-old isn’t as productive as he used to be and the Patriots overall are successful because of their strength on defense and special teams.
It’s easy to attribute Brady’s uneven performances this year to the loss of five-time Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski (retired), the failed Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown experiments and an overall lack of quality receiving options. However, Brady’s rate of “on target” throws has declined from 72% in 2018 to 65% this season, a number that is third worst amongst 26 quarterbacks with at least 300 passes thrown this year.
The truth is that Brady has been trending down for a few seasons. His completion rate is on a three-year decline, from close to a career high in 2016 (67%) to one of the lowest marks of his career in 2019 (61%).
The Patriots’ offense has been underwhelming. New England is averaging less than two points per drive, an average rate for this season and the fifth-lowest rate for the franchise since Coach Bill Belichick took over in 2000. The Patriots are also struggling in the red zone (49%, ranking 24th) and in goal-to-go situations (60%, 25th).
Alex Guerrero, Brady’s personal trainer, has speculated that the quarterback might play until he is 46 or 47. But if the current trends continue, the three-time NFL MVP could be retiring sooner than that.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
