Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 13th-14th December

Posted on 8 Dec 2014 10:22 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 15. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here. Three weeks remain of the regular season and key games abound, helped in part by the NFL's strategy of scheduling divisional games at the close of the season

- The Premier League continues with Manchester United at home to Liverpool on Sunday lunchtime a highlight

Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Cheltenham (including the December Gold Cup), Doncaster and Lingfield.

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the sixth one day International in Pallekele on Saturday morning

- Rugby Union.  the European Rugby Champions Cup continues. Two unbeaten teams remain in the competition. Harlequins, at Leinster this weekend and Toulouse, at Glasgow


PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley

A Championship preview was published on Friday and match by match analysis and write ups by Nigel Seeley will be published during the event. The full package is £49.99.

PDC World Darts Championship (full package) £49.99 Sign Up Here

Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at Sunday's NFL match up in the AFC West between the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers, live on Sky Sports at 9.25pm

Denver can clinch the division with a win in San Diego. With a 10-3 record they are two games clear of the Chargers, and have a 4-0 win/loss record against AFC West teams, winning by an average of 14.5 points per game, including a 35-21 win over San Diego in Week 8.

What is very noticeable in the last few weeks has been a philosophical shift in the Denver offense. Previously an almost guaranteed "overs" team with Peyton Manning and the passing game they have gone under in three of the last four weeks with a strategy of relying on the running game and the defense to win games.

While the contest features two of the best quarterbacks in football, the running game should play a major role in the outcome here too. Denver’s C J Anderson, only introduced into the line up with injuries to Ball and Hillman and only the lead back in the last three weeks rushed for 335 yards in Week 12 and Week 13, and scored three touchdowns last week. Overall in three weeks he has 512 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.

Timing is everything, and he got his shot just as the team was changing focus with harsher weather, the early stages of moving away from relying on Manning and tough defensive opponents all contributing to Denver focussing on the run game

The Broncos are going for their NFL-record 12th consecutive division road victory, and should again rely on their new recipe of running early and launching the ball downfield only as required. Not only is this working well, but it will keep the Chargers passing game off the field, and time of possession and ball control away from home here is important.

Anderson is available at 7-1 first touchdown scorer here with Skybet. Writing on Friday, not all prices are up but 7-1 looks, in terms of the player's form and the way the game might play out, at least a couple of points too long. What helps play to this thought is the Broncos have a strong defense too.

They have one of the league’s best run defenses, ranking second by allowing just 72.8 yards on the ground per game. In terms of pass rush, they have 38 sacks, 4th in the NFL with both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware in double digits. What this speaks to, I think, is a better than average possibility that if the Chargers get the ball first, they might not score the first touchdown.

To summarise

10 points C J Anderson First touchdown scorer Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers 7/1 Skybet.

As prices go up before Sunday I would happily take 13/2 to get on.  


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com  

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All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)

- He has had  8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.

- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70

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Using and Adapting Asian Handicaps to your Advantage (by Joe Beevers)

We have had several e-mails regarding the use of Asian Handicaps and being able to get on in certain markets. For instance we had a user who wanted to bet over 3 goals (AH) on one of Brodders' write ups but he didn't have a Bet365 account or access to a Pinnacle type bookmaker. However by betting a combination of "over 2.5 goals" and "over 3.5 goals" you can achieve the same thing.

For example: Say the recommended bet is 10 points at 3.0 "over 3 goals AH". You can use the "over 2.5 goals" and "over 3.5 goals" markets as follows:

Whatever you bet to win on over 2.5 goals you stake on over 3.5 goals (so exactly 3 goals becomes a push as on the Asian Handicap)

You could bet 5 points "over 2.5 goals" at 2.00 (which wins 5 points) and 5 points (the profit) over "3.5 goals" at 4.0 (which wins 15 points). So you stake 10 points in total. If the result is under 2.5 you lose 10, exactly 3 you push and over 3.5 you win 20 which is exactly the same result as betting the AH. You may have to play around with the figures and the odds a bit to get the exact same result but the principle is there.

Also if the recommend is AH0 (where 0 is a zero) this is exactly the same as "draw no bet". Sometimes you may be better off betting AH0 on exchances as opposed to DNB as the odds may occasionally be better and AH commission lower on exchanges as they are often keen to promote these markets. Please be aware that Betfair, with effect from December 14th, have stopped their promotional 0.75% commission rate and have reverted to standard commission rates.

We recommend the following Betting Exchanges -

Matchbook (£25 free bet) and Betfair (£30 in free bets)


What else is on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th December

Posted on 30 Nov 2014 13:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 14. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here.

- The Premier League continues with leaders Chelsea at Newcastle and Manchester City hosting Everton. It is also the FA Cup second round.

Racing, with National Hunt Meetings at Aintree (featuring the Becher Chase), Sandown (the Tingle Creek) and Chepstow

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the fourth one day International in Colombo on Sunday previewed below

- Rugby Union. After the Autumn Internationals the European Rugby Champions Cup resumes

- Snooker, the final stages of the UK Championship in York.


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at the fourth One Day cricket International between Sri Lanka and England in Colombo on Sunday

In this warm up series for the World Cup (an odd choice of opponent, because conditions here are very different than England will face in Australasia in the new Year) Sri Lanka lead 2-1. In the first two games in Colombo, Sri Lanka won both comfortably before England won in a restricted overs game in the more favourable (more fast bowler friendly) conditions of Hambantota in the third game.

The fourth game on Sunday morning, our time, sees the series return to the Colombo RPS ground where Sri Lanka won the first two games. Sri Lanka rightly are strong favourites to win the game, at 4/7 and would be especially so if once again the hosts prepare a used pitch as they did for the second game of the series.

England will be without captain Alistair Cook for the game, suspended due to slow over rates. Most observers would regard this as strengthening the team because, although obviously a top class test batsman, his strike rate at the top of the order in this format is seen as reducing England's potential to score the 300+ scores required to win games under the new batting regulations that encourage power hitting.

So we have a likely England batting line up (writing on Friday) of Ali, Hales, Bell, Root, Morgan, Bopara and Buttler. 

For some time now i have considered the value in the England top batsman sub-markets in one day cricket as being in Bopara and Buttler. Why is that?

a) the top three (here Ali, Hales, Bell) are priced up to win the market, each around 7/2-4-1. Whilst of course they have first dig at making a score......

b) Sub-continent teams have the strategy of starting the England innings with a spinner. Moeen Ali apart (a worthy favourite, in great form, rock solid technique against spin in these conditions) the approach in the powerplay overs when there is no pace on the ball is tricky. Often the result is early wickets 

c) Eoin Morgan is a dangerous player, but is on a near 18 month run of poor international form. He is also priced a couple of points lower than Buttler and Bopara, not entirely logically.

and the combination of b) and c) is that Bopara and Buttler can see a lot of overs, sometimes rebuilding the innings. The back-stop is that even if the top of the order comes off, both the power hitters at 6 and 7 can score quickly at the back end which potentially gives you a way to "back door" a winning bet

So far this series Bopara has top scored in the second game (51 on the used pitch) and second top scored in the first game (65 on the fresh pitch)

Buttler failed in the first two games and just missed top scorer in the third with 55 not out to win the game

Both should give us a run for our money at very competitive prices and i regard both as fundamentally over-priced in these markets for one day games and they have been for getting on for 18 months now. The odds-setters have not deviated from pricing up according to batting order.

Some of you may be able to back Bopara as high as 8/1 with some firms but as I can't i will take the 7/1 available at Ladbrokes and on the Betfair Sportsbook

Buttler is available at 10-1 with Ladbrokes, 8-1 generally

To summarise:

4th One Day International Sri Lanka v England, Colombo, Sunday (4.30am start GMT).

Top England run scorer:

10 points Ravi Bopara 7-1 Ladbrokes or Betfair Sportsbook

12 points Jos Buttler 10-1 Ladbrokes


 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.15% (626 bets) with 8 out of 11 winning months. Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4447.60.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month

Subscribe here


Amongst the North American sports, betting on the NFL is unique bcause there is so much time between games. In baseball the line for a game only comes out the night before the game is played. Basketball and hockey lines can be out a little bit longer at times, but not much.

Lines in the NFL are out a full week before a game is played. Because the lines are posted for so much time bettors have to decide not only who they are going to bet on, but when they are going to place that bet. Some people like to make their bets early in the week – Sunday night or Monday morning. Others like to wait until just minutes before kickoff. There are advantages to both approaches. Let’s look at three advantages of each:

Betting Early

Capitalise on any mistakes – It’s not that common that NFL  point spreads are totally wrong. Often, though, there will be a line posted that doesn’t match the opinion of smart bettors. In those cases the oddsmakers will quickly adjust the spread to compensate for the heavy action on the smart side. If you make your bets later than Monday morning at the very latest – and typically on Sunday night – then those changes will have been made.

The NFL team that the public likes – usually the favourite – will draw the majority of the bets, and often times that action is heavy enough to cause the line to move. Over the course of the week it’s not uncommon to see a line for a favourite to move by as much as a field goal or even more. If you know that the team you are going to bet is likely to be a popular team, and you are confident in your opinion, then it makes sense to bet as early as you can.

Position yourself to take advantage of line moves – Even if you don’t particularly feel strongly about a game betting on them early can open up opportunities later in the week if the line does move. For example, if you bet on the favorite and the line rises significantly then the opportunity may exist to bet the middle – a very profitable approach.

Late

Better price for team the public doesn’t like – If you are betting on a NFL team that the public is against then the line on that team is likely to improve over the course of the week as the public pours their money onto the team that they like. By showing patience in terms of when you make your bet, then, you can often bet on a line that is a couple of points better than it was to start the week.

More time to prepare – When it comes to betting on the NFL, spending more time looking over a game and looking for the edge is almost always a good thing. The longer you wait to bet on a game the more time you have to handicap the game, and if you use that time well you’re going to be better off.

React to injuries and lineup changes. By waiting until later in the week to make a bet you are sure to avoid any surprising changes in the lineup – a NFL player who gets hurt in practice, an injured player who was expected to return but isn’t ready, an injury suffered in the last game that is more serious than it seemed, a benched starter, and so on. Any of those things can have a big impact both on the potential outcome of the game and how the line moves on a particular football game.


What's on Betting Emporium?

Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here free until December 1st.

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users

VCBet offer very good soccer odds and yet again are again best price both selections on the Premier League statistical anlaysis this week.

Open your VCbet account through Bettingemporium here and get a £25 FREE bet


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 29th-30th November

Posted on 24 Nov 2014 10:10 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 13.  The highlight is the two top offenses in the league squaring off as the Green Bay Packers host the New England Patriots. For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here.

- The Premier League continues with leaders Chelsea travelling to Snderland and the surprise team of the season Suthampton hosting Manchester City.

Racing, highlighted by the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury previewed below and meetings at Newcastle, Towecester and Bangor-on-dee.

- Cricket, England's World Cup Warm up tour of Sri Lanka continues with the second ODI in Colombo on Saturday after a high-scoring defeat in the first game.

- Rugby Union the Autumn Internationals conclude with England playing Australia and Wales hosting South Africa.

- Boxing, on Saturday night at the ExCel arena London, Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora (British heavyweight) and Billy Joe Saunders v Chris Eubank Jr (European middleweight) bouts.


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing previews Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury (Newbury 3.00)

Tomorrow's big race at Newbury, the Hennessy at 3pm, is a proper horse race. A 3m2f chase over pretty tough fences and a bit of a slog on fairly soft ground. You need a decent class horse that jumps well, goes left handed and has a bit of stamina to get home on this ground. Luckily for us this is a fantastic race for each-way bets with arguably only six horses who really have the class to win and with 19-runners meaning we'll still get four places on each-way bets even if a couple of non-runners crop up. On top of all of that we have a favourite which is definitely an exciting horse who is potentially incredibly well-handicapped, but who is a massive doubt at this trip and who is really young and inexperienced.
 
 I could easily bet any of the next few in the betting each-way and if you like Many Clouds, The Druid's Nephew, Fingal Bay, Smad Place or Rocky Creek I wouldn't put you off and I'd say you probably have a good bet. I'm going to narrow it down to two here though and have a decent go at winning a few quid.
 
 Fingal Bay has won here, likes soft ground, has the speed of a hurdler and is from a stable in great form but I'm not so sure over this long trip and he isn't so experienced over fences. I'll leave this.
 
 Many Clouds loves the ground and looks like he'll stay all day. He seems priced about right and I'm not a massive fan of this stable so I think I'll pass.
 
 Smad Place is from a great stable, he ran a brilliant race at Cheltenham last year, he loves the soft ground and he has won round here over close to this trip. I do like Alan King a lot and I'm sure he has got the horse here in peak fitness and ready to win but at 7/1 I'd really like to have seen the horse in the last six weeks.
 
 Neil Mullholland is a really good trainer and the market seems to be slow to catch on to this. I am betting a lot of his horses this year. The Druid's Nephew needs a left-handed track, he stays longer than this 3m2f and he relishes a slog. My main worry would be his slightly dodgy jumping but if he gets round I just can't see him not contesting the finish.
 
 Rocky Creek has long been thought of as a Grand National horse by Paul Nicholls. He was 2nd in this race last year, we know he stays, we know he likes the ground, he jumps well and he has grown up a little bit since last year. Just looks so solid for a yard in flying form.
 
 
 I'm having 12 Points each-way at 10/1 The Druid's Nephew 1/4 1,2,3,4, (this is widely available)
 
 I'm having 16 Points each-way at 10/1 Rocky Creek 1/4 1,2,3,4 (10/1 at Betfred at the time of publishing)
 
 These two are pretty strong bets for me and I would have happily bet them at 9/1 and 8/1.
 

 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.


Sign up to Brodders' tips by December 1st and save 40% for ever:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.15% (626 bets) with 8 out of 11 winning months. Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4447.60. In November alone Brodders is winning over 267 points with ROI+23.3%.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets will be £50 a month
  • Special Offer for Early Subscribers, who sign up by December 1st 2014: £30 per month. Subscribe here.
  • For subscribers to the specuial offer, your subscription price will never increase.
  • After December 1st all new subscriptions to Brodders write ups will be £50 per month
     

Angles are a big part of NFL betting. Essentially an angle is a trend. Bettors will identify a trend that has been profitable in the past, find situations in which that same angle is occurring in a future game, and bet it in an attempt to make a profit. Neil Channing does this all the time with analysis of long run trends for teams in certain situations against the spread and it is common too in player props/sub-markets where a look at trends for players against various opponents over various seasons is an essential starting point for understanding where quotes are pitched.

If you are interested in betting angles, whether this be on games or sub-markets/props then these are relevant issues:

Test, test, test – As in recent articles the question of sample size is key. Before you trust any angle, then, you need to go back and test it over as many games as you can. The larger the sample size the better. If something has happened seven times in the last 10 games then it’s not a very powerful trend because the sample size is so small.

Make sure you are looking at root causes - When you are looking at angles it is very important that what you are looking at is actually affecting the outcome of games, and not just a coincidence of circumstances. There is a classic one in the NFL at the moment. The Dallas Cowboys are 21-1 where DeMarco Murray the NFL’s leading rusher runs twenty times a game. It is trotted out every weekend. Is it a valid trend, or a mere coincidence? Probably the latter.

Keep re-evaluating to make sure they are still working - Angles can work for a long time, but it is common for angles to work less effectively as time goes along. There are a few reasons for this. First, if an angle is popular and used by a lot of bettors then sportsbooks are going to take steps to limit the effectiveness of that angle over time and adjust spreads.

 More significantly, though, sports just change over time. Coaching gets better, training gets better, and strategies and schemes evolve. If teams consistently keep getting beaten in one particular situation then they are going to identify that and find a way to change it.

Constantly, creatively improve - The worst thing you can be when betting angles is complacent. If an angle is working well for you now then you don’t want to get lazy and just keep betting it until it doesn’t work anymore. Instead, you want to constantly be thinking about what you could be doing that is even more successful. For example, Is there a way that you could further limit the angle so that the winning percentage is even higher? Is there a way you could expand the number of games you play with the angle so that it is less profitable on each game, but that is more than made up for by the number of games?

Don’t follow blindly - If you are just following angles blindly then you aren’t likely to succeed over the long term. You constantly need to be testing and refining your angles to make sure that they work well. You also need to make sure that the game that the angle has identified actually makes sense. Sometimes an angle will point out a team or a game that just doesn’t make sense for other reasons – a serious injury to a key player, for example. By eliminating games that don’t make a lot of sense you can make fewer losing bets, increase your win percentage, and increase the overall effectiveness of your angle/prop betting.


What's on Betting Emporium?

Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here free until December 1st.

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

£10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£11,466.40 (as at 25-11-14)

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 22nd-23rd November

Posted on 17 Nov 2014 09:28 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

NFL Week 12.  For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here

- The Premier League returns from an International break, with Arsenal playing Manchester United the big game of the weekend

- Formula One, the final Grand Prix of the season in Abu Dhabi with Lewis Hamilton needing to finish second to ensure his second drivers title

Racing, jumps meetings at Haydock including the Betfair chase, Ascot and Huntingdon

Golf the World Tour Championship takes place in Dubai

Tennis the final two days of the Davis Cup final in Lille between France and Switzerland

- Rugby Union the Autumn Internationals continue with highlights Wales v the All Blacks and Ireland v Australia


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing previews the Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at Haydock (2.25 Haydock):

"So when Richard asked me to come up with a great horse bet this week I thought it would probably run in the Betfair Chase. My angle was going to be to oppose a few of the short ones and bet Harry Topper who loves the ground. The stable is flying and because the horse didn't jump at all well last season there is a lazy assumption that it will not do this year. It's as if the media feel that Kim Bailey may not have noticed that the horse needed to work on his jumping and he'll have done nothing about that in the mere twelve months he's had. I'm going to avoid tipping the animal now as the 25/1 of Monday became the 16/1 of Wednesday and the 12/1 of today without anything much changing. I think we missed this boat.

The other race that I love is the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock (2.25pm). This one was on my radar as the safety limit is 17-runners and we all love each-way 1,2,3,4 in 16+ runner handicaps. In the conditions though I really worry about late non-runners ruining our bets. I'm going to just bet one horse each-way and pray that they all run.

People are mean about Lizzie Kelly who rides Aubusson. I do love the horse though. This horse has run just four times and won two. The races were on heavy, soft, soft and good/soft and the two he got beaten in were at Cheltenham and Chepstow both left-handed courses where he finished 2nd and 3rd, and exactly the same two courses where he won. I think he'll love it round here, on this flat galloping left-handed track and he stays the trip well. Connections have talked about how he won't like it too heavy, I just don't agree and I think they are being overly worried for nothing. It's impossible to see how he won't be in the four I reckon. My only worry would be the race going down to 15-runners.

 
 I'm having 8 points each-way 1/4 1,2,3,4 Aubusson at 11/1 with several firms (BetVictor, William Hill amongst others) in the Haydock 2.25pm."
 

 Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.


Sign up to Brodders' tips by December 1st and save 40% for life:

All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.63% (over 600 bets) with 8 out of 11 winning months. Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4675.60.

  • From 1st December 2014 subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets will be £50 a month
  • Special Offer for Early Subscribers, who sign up by December 1st 2014: £30 per month. Subscribe here.
  • For subscribers to the specuial offer, your subscription price will never increase.
  • After December 1st all new subscriptions to Brodders write ups will be £50 per month
     

A couple of weeks ago i asked for Betting Emporium reader experiences of the UK bookmaking industry. Martin sent me a reply as follows

"Having read your recent article on Betting Emporium, I thought I would share my recent bizarre experience with Boylesports.

I opened an account with Boylesports on 15th June placing a £50 win bet on a UFC bout which lost on 5th July giving me a £25 freebet which I placed on Germany to win the world cup at 5/2, returning £62.50. I then placed 6 £50 over 2.5 goal bets following Betting Emporiums Premier League Statistical Analysis from 11th August to 18th September.
 
At this point I was losing a total of £28.42 on all bets and £40.92 on the over 2.5 goal bets on the account. I then tried to place a £50 win bet on another over 2.5 goals bet and was restricted to £4.30. Since then I have been unable to place anything other than a few pounds on any sport. The most bizarre being a restriction of £0.26 on a UFC bout this coming weekend, which is a sport in which I have lost £50.
 
If I was winning I could understand but to have a losing account restricted really has left me scratching my head. They have confirmed that my account has been restricted and those restrictions will not be lifted and they will not give me a reason as to why.
 
I almost feel like I've been cheated and I'm very tempted to make a complaint to whoever holds their gaming licence."

If anyone else wants to contribute, please email rich.prew@btinternet.com and i will put your experiences up.


What's on Betting Emporium?

Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here free until December 1st.

English Football - Premier League Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here

English Football - Championship Games  Stuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS 

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 15th-16th November

Posted on 9 Nov 2014 10:44 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

It is NFL Week 11.  For all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here

-  The Premier League is on an International break with Euro 2016 qualifiers taking place. England play Slovenia in Euro 2016 qualifying at Wembley on Saturday evening

Racing, the National Hunt season is in full swing, with Saturday meeting's at Cheltenham featuring the Paddy Power Chase, Uttoxeter and Wetherby

- In Golf the USPGA Tour is in Mexico for the OHL Classic and the European Tour in Turkey for the Turkish Airlines Open

- In Tennis the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals conclude at the O2 Arena, London

- In Rugby Union the Autumn Internationals continue with England hosting South Africa, Scotland against New Zealand and Wales against Fiji

- The Grand Slam of Darts concludes in Wolverhampton.


Free Tip of the Week    

The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today a look at a player prop in tomorrow night's NFL action

The San Francisco 49ers travel to New York this weekend with a 5-4 record knowing they are in a real dog-fight for an NFC play off spot, to play a Giants team out of contention for the play offs

The Giants are allowing an NFL-worst 144.7 rush yards per game--their highest since 1980 (the year before they drafted the great linebacker Lawrence Taylor).

Over the last 4 games, following the loss of key run defender linebacker Jon Beason to injured reserve, the Giants Run "D" has been gutted for 680 yards & 6 TDs on 115 carries (5.91 Yards per carry) by opposing Running backs. This poor performance was highlighed in the fgame at Seattle last weekend where Marshawn Lynch ran all over them.

Afterwards one commentator said "I still can't think of a game where more guys made "business decisions" than the Giants vs. Marshawn", meaning Giants players not tackling, not playing at 100% or for their coach, giving up on the season etc.

The 49ers have Frank Gore, one of the most punishing and durable backs in the NFL, behind one of the best offensive lines. It has to make sense that Gore is going to have a big night, and the offense will be confident of punching the ball in via the run in any red zone possessions

The 49ers returned to their run-game roots in last week's overtime upset of New Orleans, finishing with a 32:32 run-pass ratio and feeding Gore 23 carries, his second highest total of the season. Gore played 73% of San Francisco's offensive snaps and piled up 84 yards with a touchdown on 24 touches

Ladbrokes and Coral offer us 8/1 Gore to be first touchdown scorer for this game (which starts 6pm UK time Sunday evening). Coupled with him is back up Carlos Hyde. Gore is beginning to hand over some workload to rookie Hyde, who is going to be a star when he has some experience. He has rushed for three touchdowns this season and is a useful saver here, 12-1 with Ladbrokes, should he be the man in the backfield on the key drive.

12 points Frank Gore first touchdown scorer 8-1 Ladbrokes or Coral

4 points Carlos Hyde first touchdown scorer 12-1 Ladbrokes


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We often hear about betting systems that are hot. “This system has been 9-1 since last week”

Does this mean anything? What if a system is in profit over 100 games? Is this likely to be statistically significant? And what does that phrase mean, anyway?

A long long time ago i managed investment portfolios for 15 years and financial traders often talk about last year’s returns – or "statistically significant" results over the past three or five years. Investors review long-term stock and fund performance but the industry markets over a far shorter timeframe perspective, and often which may not be statistically significant.

It can often be the same in sports betting, and of course many sports and betting on them lends itself to statistical analysis in many ways.

What does “Statistical Significance” Mean?

To the layman, “significant” means important. To statisticians however, “significant” means “probably true.” If something is “statistically significant” at the 95% level (think back to normal distributions and bell curves!), it means that there is a 95% probability that a hypothesis is true.

Applications to Sports Betting

How can we use this? Statistics can help us determine if an approach is likely to be profitable. They can also give us some guidelines on how long we might stick with a system.

Depending on the “juice” we pay, we need to win around 51% to 52.5% of our bets. Let’s say we want to test how viable a system is at the 55% winning percentage level.

Proving Statistical Significance

Let’s do that with some thoughts on imaginary sports betting systems.

  • A system is producing better than 57% over a million games. We’d agree that was pretty good, and statistically significant.
  • What if, instead of a million games, this 57% was based on 100,000 games? Same thing: good results and statistically significant.
  • What does maths tell us? It says that if a system is producing a better than 57% winning percentage, the cut-off is around 2,000 bets to prove statistical significance (that the results will beat the 55% winning percentage we chose above).

That is, if a system produces a 57% winning percentage over 2,000 games, mathematicians say that there is a 95% chance that the results are true (results will be better than 55% in the long-run). Please see the graph below.  Below 2,000 games, the results are good, but statisticians wouldn’t say that results are “significant” enough.

Graph: Statistical Significance (95% Level) — 55% Winning Percentage
Winning Percentage to prove “Statistical Significance” versus Sample Size

  • Some mathematicians label results as “mildly” significant or “highly” statistically significant.
  • From the graph we can see that at a sample size of 20, you would need to hit around 80% to prove statistical significance. If a decent system is connecting at 67%, it doesn’t mean that it’s “no good.” It just means that there is too much randomness in the small sample size and that the system should be tested over more bets (a longer time period or larger sample size).
  • At the 200 bet sample size, you would need a winning percentage in the low 60% range to prove statistical significance.
  • Over time, we know that various systems and approaches will have ups and downs. A sample size as small as 50-100 can start to tell us a story (10-20 is too small a sample size, unless results are extraordinary) – but 200-500 is even better.

What's on Betting Emporium?

Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here . Following Brodders' football bets since January 2014 and betting £10 a point you would now have £4069 profit.

English Non League Football -   Alan looks at games in the Conference National, North and South, free to access here


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