The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th-31st December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures see runaway leaders Manchester City at Crystal Palace on New Years Eve.

- Cricket, the final Ashes Test in Sydney begins on 3^rd January and the Big Bash continues.

- Racing, Over the jumps at  Haydock, Newbury and Taunton. All weather racing at Lingfield.

- Rugby Union, Aviva Premiership fixtures include Exeter v Leicester on New Years Eve

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NFL Week 17 New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Sunday 9.25pm

A few weeks ago this column recommended Mark Ingram first touchdown scorer, which went into the slightly unlucky loser column (a shorter column than the “that was a bad bet” one) after he was targeted on a short pass into the end zone on first down and couldn’t haul in the ball for the touchdown, then received the ball on the two yard line on second down and couldn’t run it in. Alvin Kamara proceeded to score the first touchdown.

This weekend I want to try again, because the match up and likely game script also looks right.

To recap on the Saints rushing attack firstly:

• The offense has morphed into a more balanced unit this season as the emphasis has moved away from solely relying on Brees and the passing game
• Adrian Peterson was traded away mid season creating the opportunity for the other backs to increase their snap counts
• Investments in the offensive line in the draft have been successful, creating a reliable running game.

The result of all of this is that the running attack has been a major contributor in a side that is in pole position to win a tough division and the results for both Ingram and the likely offensive rookie of the year have been impressive:

Ingram 1089 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns* 397 receiving yards

Kamara 684 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 742 receiving yards 5 touchdowns

(* All 12 touchdowns from week 7 onwards, after the Peterson trade)

The running back combination has accounted for 48% of the New Orleans yardage and 55% of their offensive touchdowns this year. They can become the 1st running back teammates in NFL history to each have 1,500+ scrimmage yards in the same season.

Last week, in what turned out to be a mostly attritional defensive game against the Falcons, Ingram and Kamara received 35 touches combined on 61 offensive snaps, so their workload has showed no sign of reducing.

If the Saints win here, they win the division. No resting of the starters, at least not early in the game, as if they lose and the Panthers beat the Falcons, the Saints are into the wild card positions and won’t host the first play off game. The Saints and Panthers/Falcons now play at the same time.

The Buccaneers are a 4-11 team, and like Neil I am not a huge proponent of the argument that “teams have nothing to play for” (or this is a “must win” game on the other side) but they have injuries on defense and ranked 24^th on rushing defense through 16 weeks. That said they are ranking last of the 32 teams in passing defense so for the Saints it a case of “take your pick”.

The two teams met in Florida in week 9, the Saints won 30-10 and it was Kamara who featured with two touchdowns, one rushing one receiving and 152 total yards. In that game Ingram rushed for 77 yards.

This season Ingram and Kamara combined have elevated the Saints to the 5^th best rushing attack in the league through 16 games. The Saints are 7 point favourites at home in a game in which the total points market shows +/- 50.5 points and the game match up looks excellent for their offense. I could make the case for backing both by dutching Ingram and Kamara but Ingram is the workhorse here, and as in the game a few weeks ago should get the early down opportunities near the goal-line

8 points Mark Ingram First Touchdown Scorer 11/2 (Betfair Sportsbook/Paddypower so far, prices are late going up this final weekend!)

Survival of the fittest.

So far in the European Champions Cup Rugby Pool stages the Irish teams are riding high. In Round 4, for the second time this season, the Irish teams swept the English teams from the Aviva Premiership. Over the course of four rounds, the Irish teams have one defeat in 16 matches in both European tournaments, the Champions and Challenge Cup. In the Champions Cup Leinster and Munster lead their pools and are on course for home times in the Quarter finals

The Irish union has a significant input into the contractual arrangements of the players in each of the four provinces. There is a degree of autonomy for each team but the overriding direction comes from the union. They provide the funding and they exert influence to when the Test players, in particular, are available for Pro14 duty. As a result, their leading players (15 on contracts) have far more built-in rest and recuperation periods than their counterparts in England.

The English Premiership clubs have far more funding at their disposal but are beginning to be hamstrung by a static salary cap and competition for their players notably from France. As this has pushed overall wage levels up their squads lack the depth of previous years as teams cannot hoard talent outside their first team under the cap

England and France are the two countries in the world game holding out against centrally contacting players. It is a power play between old money that resides in the union and the new independent financial clout of private investors who increasingly have come town the clubs.

Yet the international game is seeing a shift back towards central control. Even Wales, have managed to reach a position where they arein a position to try to entice their best players back home, such as George North.

For England’s national team Eddie Jones would like the same control over his players as Steve Hansen (New Zealand) or Joe Schmidt (Ireland) does. These coaches have complete jurisdiction over when, where and how often their players play. Jones has long stressed the need for better levels of fitness. That is an on-going process but it is nigh-on-impossible for Jones to have any direct input to conditioning levels once the season is under way.

The rigours of the domestic programme are such that the prime aim of England’s Test players is survival. For example Saracens (in the middle of a bad run) played at Clermont two Sundays ago in a brutal game and six days later were in Leicester on Christmas Eve, the key players required to play both and this a onth before the Six Nations, a competition in which attrition from injuries (Elliot Daly, Nathan Hughes) is already occurring. Many of the top players have played through a Lions summer, straight into a domestic and International autumn and on into the Six Nations, being pulled by both club and country to front up for both. The underperformance of the English clubs in the ERCC is directly related to their workload, and it is the Irish provinces that have been a beneficiary so far.

The hybrid English system, with built-in blocks of release, may not be ideal for national coaches, but it provides a counter-point to the Test rugby arena. The international game may well generate the bulk of the funding for the sport through the Rugby World Cup and various broadcasting rights deals, providing profile round the globe, but for many fans the fortunes of the clubs is important too. As yet though English rugby hasn’t found the balance. Such is the depth of talent that the English national team has so far been able to withstand the injury absences, but the acid test will be in February onwards in the Six Nations

Brodders Football Analysis

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool on Friday night and then a full schedule on Boxing Day.

- Cricket, the Fourth Ashes Test in Melbourne begins on Boxing Day.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle. All weather racing at Lingfield.

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PDC Darts World Championship:

Last year Nigel Seeley showed a Darts ROI of 10.83%.and if you have followed all of Nigel’s darts bets on Betting Emporium betting £10 a point (average bet 10-12 points) you would be winning £2028

Free tip

The King George VI Chase at Kempton, Boxing Day by Neil Channing

The highlight of the Christmas racing looks a real cracker this year, (see what I did there?). I'm writing this on Friday afternoon and at the moment it's a nine-runner race but three are 50/1 and bigger on the machine and me old mucker Tea For Two surely won't win this on soft ground and with rain expected tomorrow and on Monday that is what I'm expecting they'll be facing.

We are left with just five horses and although it's possible that the freak but nutty Might Bite just hacks up, on a course that plays to his strengths, I think the race begs us to play each-way.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way Whisper at 9/1 1/5th 123 with Bet365 and SkyBet

Fooled by Randomness?

As I write Burnley are sixth in the Premier League table and, beyond the continued excellence of Manchester City, one of the stories of the Premier League season as we approach Christmas. In the past week Burnley have continued to progress with seven points out of 9 and three clean sheets at home to Watford and Stoke and then at Brighton.

So far this is a remarkable achievement as their average weekly wage (£18,000 per week), is less than the day’s pay of a number of the top players in the league. They have produced five England debutants in the last couple of years.

Beyond the bare facts of the league table there are some remarkable statistical occurrences this season. Firstly Burnley have turned 16 goals in 18 games into 32 points. Of course related to this Burnley have conceded only 12 goals all season.

Expected wins and goals data shows us something unusual. Compared to their actual outcome of 9 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses their Expected Wins (Xwins) are under 5, XDraws 5 and XLosses 8. xG is a paltry 10, xGA (given the number and quality of chances created against Burnley this season) 20 and expected points….16!

Of course under half of a premier league season is a short sample of games and we’ve seen before how teams can both out and underperform their expected results for quite a while and it is not to say that some regression to the mean is imminent and such bucking of conventional wisdom suggests that writing it off as an outlier or a freak of randomness is unsatisfactory. What might the statistical models be missing?

This season according to Opta, no Premier League team has blocked more shots or made more clearances. Ben Mee and James Tarkowski rank second and third in the league in each category. No goalkeeper has made more saves per game than the injured Tom Heaton’s understudy Nick Pope. All of these are required as Burnley has allowed more shots than any other team.

This ight suggest that Burnley are plucky underdogs throwing their bodies in the way of more sophisticated opponents. However the work Burnley put in to achieve the sort of stats highlighted by Opta belies this.

When Sean Dyche arrived in 2012 he began to coach the team specifically on defensive patterns off the ball and players reportedly and repeatedly watched videos of teams from La Liga and Argentina designed to illustrate how he wanted his team to defend as a group. Five years later the methods are still in place all designed to limit the number of “golden” opportunities the opponents might have which involves working intensively on the team’s shape in certain situations, for example a central defender dropping into the line of a shot from a specific position, or the defense squeezing opponents into less dangerous areas.

Dyche explained recently “The way it is designed is to put a player in a position that it is statistically, visually and from experience, harder to score from,” he said. “Or to allow the team to defend more bravely, to step out of their positions to move towards the ball because they know they have cover. It is to make a chance less of a chance.”

Burnley may concede the most shots, but the success of the approach is that it also gives up the “lowest quality of opportunities” to its opponents of all Premier League teams. Last season, Burnley blocked 32% of the shots it faced. This season that figure is 35%. The league average is 27%.

Data from Stratagem shows how Burnley defends. On average, a Premier League team will have five defenders between its goal and an opponent taking a shot on around 9% of the chances it concedes. Burnley does so almost twice as often. Stratagem’s figures show that fewer than 2% of the chances Dyche’s team concede come came when it has less than two defenders between the attacker and goal. The average for the league is 14%.

That the method’s success is not reflected in the analytics described earlier is clear and the models used do not take into account the positions or the numbers of defenders on any given chance. It is also hard to put a figure on team cohesiveness and that element of the team being more than the sum of its parts. Watching Burnley’s back five in person recently, it was the footballing equivalent of a strictly come dancing group dance, all co-ordination and precision of positioning. It is a team, and that cannot always be measured and not to be dismissed as being a product of fluke with a tumble down the table certain to follow

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham.

- Cricket, the Third Ashes Test in Perth continues.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford. All weather racing at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.

- Rugby Union, The fourth round of pool matches in the 2017-18 European Champions Cup

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NFL Week Fifteen

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £50

PDC Darts World Championship: Just Started!

Last year Nigel Seeley showed a Darts ROI of 10.83%.and if you have followed all of Nigel’s darts bets on Betting Emporium betting £10 a point (average bet 10-12 points) you would be winning £2028

Our PDC Darts World Championship outright write is now available to read here: http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/201

Free tip

Cricket: 2017-18 Big Bash League Betting Preview

BBL07 begins on 19^th December

Outright Prices are as follows:

Each way odds are 1/3 1,2 at some firms in an eight team competition where we can probably rule out the three outsiders.

Perth Scorchers 4/1

Melbourne Stars 5/1

Melbourne Renegades 5/1

Sydney Sixers 6/1

Brisbane Heat 6/1

Adelaide Strikers 8/1

Sydney Thunder 10/1

Hobart Hurricanes 12/1

There will be a total of 43 matches played this season, up from 35 in the past, as each team plays an additional two fixtures compared to last season. However this is still a short competition, high variance from a betting perspective both in terms of individual games and the outright as evenly matched teams play cricket’s shortest format where individual performances and conditions can skew results.

A look at each of the teams

ADELAIDE STRIKERS

The Strikers are coming off a 3-5 season last year. Captain Brad Hodge has departed and Travis Head replaces him. Ben Dunk has defected to the Melbourne Stars, while keeper Tim Ludeman has gone to the Renegades. Colin Ingram is one of their overseas signings and the brilliant Afghan Leg spinner Rashid Khan is a match winner. Ben Laughlin and Peter Siddle will team up as the teams bowling veterans. They lack some depth and the batting line up looks very thin.

BRISBANE HEAT

The Heat were the surprise package of last season, finishing second in the league and reaching the Semi Finals before bowing out in a super over. They are stacked with big hitters and an under-rated bowling lineup with a lot of spin options (the coach Daniel Vettori is a firm believer in spin in the short format) including Yasir Shah which will see them be dangerous once again. Brendon McCullum is back to captain the side, and between him and Chris Lynn (assuming he is fit) they have real big hitting potential. Joe Burns is dangerous on his day, and will bat with McCullum at the top, while Ben Cutting is one of Australia’s finest all-rounders. They should finish in the top 4

HOBART HURRICANES

The Hurricanes finished second last in BBL06 and they have since lost Stuart Broad, and Kumar Sangakarra. Shaun Tait is a big loss to the bowling, retiring at the end of last season and as a result, the Hurricanes squad looks very lean. George Bailey and Dan Christian are veterans and tough competitors but the overall lack depth might be their downfall. A young squad (Jofra Archer from Sussex amongst them) I can’t see them competing with the big teams this year.

MELBOURNE RENEGADES

The squad looks well balanced, and Brad Hodge adds experience to the team. The addition of Jon Holland is a good one too, Holland is one of the country’s best spin bowlers, he has taken 171 wickets in 53 first class games. Kane Richardson adds to the bowling and will frustrate batsman all tournament Aaron Finch and Cameron White are two of world cricket’s cleanest hitters, who on their day can be the most destructive players in the league. Dwayne Bravo has also returned and will bring plenty of excitement. They should challenge.

MELBOURNE STARS

The Melbourne Stars perennially have had the tag of being the team to beat. They look well equipped this season with the addition of last year’s leading run scorer, Ben Dunk. The side will now be led by all-rounder John Hastings, who will be hoping to go one better than the Semi Final loss last season. Glenn Maxwell is back and Kevin Pietersen returns for a last hurrah. They have a number of exciting all-rounders in Luke Wright, Marcus Stoinis, James Faulkner and Hastings. The issues will come when the ODI’s come around, they will likely lose a number of players including; Maxwell, Faulkner, Stoinis, Handscomb and Zampa.

PERTH SCORCHERS

The most successful franchise in the seven year BBL, winning it three times, they start the competition with the same championship winning line-up as 12 months ago. They haven’t brought any new players into the squad with David Willey and Ian Bell staying on. They continue to be the most consistent side in the competition and have Mitchell Johnson back in the fold again. Adam Voges will lead the side while Michael Klinger opens the batting for another season. Shaun Marsh and Cameron Bancroft will be missing while Australia are playing Tests. They are ever consistent and I expect them to be in the fray again this season. They are tough to beat at the WACA and they will also play games, later in the tournament, at the impressive new Perth Stadium.

SYDNEY SIXERS

Last year’s runners up have lost a number of key players. Brad Haddin, Ryan Carters and Michael Lumb have all left, while Joe Mennie has joined the Renegades. They re-signed English imports Jason Roy and Sam Billings. Peter Nevill will come in and take the gloves, and they are well covered in the bowling department. Moises Henriques will lead them again, and a lot of the runs will need to come from him, with a number of all-rounders and then bowlers around him. Sean Abbott was the leading wicket taker in last year’s tournament. They will get Nathan Lyon at some point throughout the tournament, they are unlikely to see Mitchell Starc much.

SYDNEY THUNDER

Sydney Thunder have fallen away a little since their unlikely win two seasons ago, but with some good additions they might well be ready to rebuild. The Thunder have signed Englishman Jos Buttler to add some big hitting and wicket keeping expertise, they will however lose him when England start their ODI matches and will announce a replacement mid tournament. How much will we see from Usman Khawaja remains to be seen. Shane Watson will captain the side this season, and is still hitting the ball well, he adds plenty with his bowling. Aiden Blizzard, Ben Rohrer and Kurtis Patterson are big hitters while they have signed quick Kiwi Mitch McClenaghan.

My shortlist of contenders is the Scorchers, Brisbane and both Melbourne teams. For value Brisbane Heat at the longest price of these teams, 6/1, appeals each way. If Chris Lynn is fit and firing, 6/1 could look very big indeed.

8 points Brisbane Heat to win BBL07 6/1 each way (1/3 1,2 ) with SkyBet,11/2 Bet365

Flowering again?

For Scotland’s rugby team frequently in recent years optimism from performances in October internationals have been followed by Six Nations disappointment but looking ahead to the 2018 championship now only six weeks away surely this is the year where they turn some potential into a rise up the table.

After knocking off the cobwebs in beating Samoa in the first of their three autumn internationals they then only lost narrowly to New Zealand and then beat Australia 53-24.. It was their highest points total over tier-one opponents.

There were mitigating circumstances for the Wallabies in the end to their European tour: only one of Scotland’s eight tries was scored before the sending-off of Sepoke Kepu late in the first half for example but Scotland exploited their man advantage with ruthlessness.

New coach Gregor Townsend has a stated aim of playing the highest-tempo rugby in the world and the games against New Zealand and Australia were an encouraging start. They began against the All Blacks at a ferocious pace and, although they lost 17-22, they were in contention until the final minute.

As Glasgow Warriors coach, Townsend brought attacking flair to the team that transformed them into Pro12 champions in 2015. He has replicated that approach at national level, in the process producing the most exciting Scotland side since they won the last Five Nations Championship in

This current team have won nothing yet but on this form they will at least be contenders for next year’s title. Not only do they have a game plan  there is now more depth to their squad. The win against Australia for example was achieved without players such as: the front row of Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and WP Nel; Richie Gray at lock; John Hardie at open-side; and backs such as Greig Laidlaw and Stuart Hogg, the latter having been ruled out at the last minute.

Under previous coach Vern Cotter a lot of the hard work of developing players and the growing pains of losing from winning positions led to frustration that the breakthrough would never be achieved and the upcoming six nations will be the test of whether the team has made the leap, particularly in closing out games

In Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg they have two backs to match any they will come across in the Northern Hemisphere and the emergence of the likes of Huw Jones in the centre to complement Russell, Hogg and finishers outside such as Seymour gives Scotland real potency.

Last season Scotland finished 4^th in the Six Nations with three wins, all at home against Ireland, Wales and Italy but ended the tournament shipping 60 points to England at Twickenham. This year they get England and France at home and Italy/Wales away look winnable too. Finishing 4^th again would be a disappointment and the market has then as 8/1 third favourites behind England and Ireland when this time last year they were 40/1.

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City and Liverpool v Everton.

- Golf On the USPGA Tour the QBE Shootout at Tiburon GC. On the European Tour the Joburg Open.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Rugby Union, Third round of pool matches in the 2017-18 European Champions Cup

- Snooker, the final stages of the UK Championship in York

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NFL Week Fourteen

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £50

Coming Soon

Free tip

European Rugby Champions Cup Saturday 7.45pm Munster v Leicester Tigers

The two teams at the top of Pool 4 meet in Limerick, Leicester top by virtue of two bonus points gained in losing 22-18 to Racing in round 1 and in thrashing Castres at home in round 2 54-29. Munster meanwhile drew at Castres 17-17 in round 1 then ground out a 14-7 win at home to Racing in Round 2

In groups with only six games and the five group winners and three best placed runners up only making the knock out stages winning home games is vital and here Munster, roared on a passionate crowd often in inhospitable weather have had a n advantage stretching back many years and this is a key game in the group where it is likely that only one team will progress.

These two are no strangers to each other and go head to head in Europe for the third successive season. Leicester won in Munster in 2015 but were pummelled 38-0 this time last year.

Munster’s core, based around O’Mahoney and Stander in the back row and Conor Murray at scrum half, is very strong and allows them to play an attritional style when conditions demand which looking at Saturday’s forecast for the west coast of Ireland it might do. They’ve only conceded 31 points in their two ERCC games so far, which speaks to a strong defence.

Leicester are emerging from a transitional phase that has seen two coaching changes and a turnover of marquee players including the recruitment of England’s George Ford and Jonny May in the off-season. They have firepower, sticking 54 points on Castres (albeit the worst travellers of any of the French teams) was impressive but their domestic record in the Aviva Premiership is mixed, sitting 6^th with four defeats already. In terms of being the finished article they aren’t at the level of Exeter and Saracens especially in the second and back row which happens to be Munster’s strength.

Since the last round of pool matches Munster have stuck 36 and 49 points on Pro 14 teams at home while Leicester have conceded 33 and 32 points away at Bath and Wasps respectively.

Munster are 1/3 favourites here and -7 on the handicap at 10/11, and 6/4+ to win by 1-12 points with Sportingbet and Skybet

8 points Munster to win by 1-12 points 13/8 Bet365, Sportingbet and Skybet

Old Man Yells at Cloud

Plenty of football fans have a degree of scepticism about the use of statistics while others particularly in the betting fraternity are happy to embrace them, looking at assists, shots, tackles, passes and fouls to help understanding. Interceptions can highlight an impressive reading of the game; conversion rate can help to prove one player has better finishing than another; distance covered and sprints let us prove someone really is lazy, the list goes on.

The Football mainstream though has not followed the path of other sports, particularly those in America, where in-depth analysis is commonplace and much more readily available. For example Quarterback rating is ingrained in NFL coverage, and Wins above Replacement in baseball is widely used as a metric to establish the value of individual players. These are metrics from which more can be learned about a player than mere passes, aerial duels or clearances in football.

The in-depth analysis that football clubs do behind the scenes remains private but is increasing in both quality and quantity. The result is that the majority of fans are not exposed to the level of statistical analysis that is going on in footballl.

Many fans have no interest in such deep analysis and are presumably happy to enjoy football as they have done up to now. Managers like Harry Redknapp have played down the use of performance analysis with scientific evidence as an aid.

"You can look at stats as much as you want but you can have too much of it. You can spend too much time looking at computers rather than looking at the real thing which is out there on the pitch”.

Some of the biggest strides towards mainstream football opening up to deeper analysis is through the use of 'Expected goals' which assesses the probability that any individual shot will - or should - be scored.

Ted Knutson, the American co-founder of Statsbomb and a leading exponent of xG, believes the statistical revolution is only just beginning.

"I think we're just getting started on the use of stats in football. A few clubs out there, including some in the Champions League have adopted this approach, both in England in Europe,"

Meanwhile there is a thirst for knowledge and football statistics. @OptaJoe, Opta's main Twitter account has nearly one million followers; the accounts for WhoScored and Squawka each have well over 600,000.

However how much do they want? Recently on Soccer Saturday, an outlet which is a proxy for the mainstream and casual football fan, Jeff Stelling went on a rant and the subject was Expected goals.

Stelling observed to his Soccer Saturday colleagues that Arsène Wenger had “quoted expected goals!”, a comment that was accompanied by an audible “No!” from one of the panel (Phil Thompson). “He’s the first person I’ve ever heard take any notice of expected goals, which must be the most useless stat in the history of football! What does it tell you? The game’s finished 3-1, why do you show expected goals afterwards?”

In terms of the mainstream football remains behind its sporting rivals, and we continue to await the data revolution that America has already seen, in public at least. Reasoned and intelligent progress in the world of football data will be seen as a positive for the most part, and many will enjoy its advancement but its a way off being adopted wholesale by pundits!

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

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There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United.

- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Adelaide.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Rugby Union, The Autumn Internationals conclude with Wales v South Africa

- Rugby League, the World Cup final, Australia v England.

NFL Week Thirteen

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £50

Coming Soon

Free tip

NFL Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sunday 9.25pm

This is a key game in the NFC South with first and second in the division meeting in New Orleans.

The Saints have become a much more rounded team this season, and this reflects in their win-loss record. As is often the case in franchises experiencing rapid improvement there has been some skill in roster construction and some good fortune too.

The skill has been primarily draft related as this off-season they acquired two top pieces in the defensive secondary that have helped transform a leaky defense but also a starting right tackle (who has really helped the run game) and in the third round the running back Alvin Kamara who is currently the leading candidate for offensive rookie of the year.

Going into this game Kamara has a touchdown in five straight games and is averaging 8.1 yards per touch on 123 touches this season. No running back in the last 25 years has averaged 8+ yards per play on 100+ touches He's averaging 13.8 touches per game over last five games and overall has 77 carries -566 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground and 54 receptions-548 yards-and 4 touchdowns through the air and has to be a live candidate in any first touchdown market

The increased reliance on the running game coincides with the tail end of quarterback Drew Brees’ career, where he doesn’t quite have the arm he used to so the offense has changed from a big play down the field approach to something that is far more balanced, helped by the offensive line improvements.

However it is not all Kamara as Mark Ingram may be playing his way toward being a free agent in 2018. According to the terms of Ingram's contract signed in 2015, there is a clause that allows him to be a free agent in 2018 (and earn a lucrative third NFL contract) based on his performance in 2017 specifically if he is voted as a First-Team All-Pro. What helps him is that AP has changed the composition of their All-Pro team, with two running backs now chosen in the first team. Motivation is therefore high to perform on a weekly basis.

The Saints signed Adrian Peterson to great fanfare in the 2017 offseason. When that didn’t work out they traded him to Arizona after a few weeks of the season. Ingram has rushed for 839 yards on 166 carries with eight touchdowns, while adding 213 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns all since that trade.

Ingram is averaging 5 yards per rush more than a full yard-per-rush better than the elague’s leading rusher Le-Veon Bell. Going back to the start of 2014 Ingram has racked up 29 rushing touchdowns (tied for third most league-wide) and 3,582 yards (sixth).

So for a 5 point home favourite with a prolific offense which running back should we favour in the first touchdown market? Firstly it’s a key divisional game which suggests that minimising risks is key. Secondly the Panthers have a terrific sideline to sideline middle linebacker in Luke Kuechly who could well limit Kamara’s production, After Kamara’s fantastic performance in LA last weekend, they will certainly be game-planning for him first and foremost. All of these factors suggest to me a heavy dose of the “bell cow” back Ingram in what is now a run first offense

8 points Mark Ingram First Touchdown scorer New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers 7-1 Bet365 and others.

The Sack Race

So far this season Premier League clubs are reacting more quickly in sacking their managers than in previous seasons. Thirteen matches down and five changes have been made with the likelihood of more to come. 2017-18 is the fourth "worst" season for managerial sackings at this stage of a campaign in Premier League history, and the worst in the past decade. This time last season only one manager had been sacked ( Guidolin ) and it was not until late February ( Ranieri) that the fifth change was made. With four of the five changes so far this season, the exception being Frank de Boer, the same managers led their clubs to mid-table last season finishing seventh, 10th, 11th and 12th.

Of course every year managerial changes are fuelled by the fear of being relegated and the loss of revenue even allowing for parachute payments. The greater fear is that clubs will drop through the Championship (Wigan, Blackburn, potentially Sunderland) or display such instability (Leeds, Aston Villa) that the prospect of an immediate return is unlikely.

However there are other factors at play. Firstly the role of the manager has been diminished in this era of the Director of Football. Managers can be replaced without too much upheaval and, certainly, less cost than being relegated.

Secondly this season climbing the table after a poor start cannot be assumed. Part of the reason for that is that the promoted clubs are all doing well in mid-table. It has been axiomatic to assume that one or more of the promoted teams would go straight back down. That buffer for existing top flight clubs has begun to break down though. It might be the beginnings of an argument that the bottom half of the Premier League is not markedly better than the top half of the Championship.

The BBC recently looked back at the past 10 Premier League seasons and in all but one instance where a club sacked a manager during October and November, their average points-per-game return increased over the remainder of the season. Excluding this year, that's 10 sackings/resignations during that two-month period, nine with an ultimately positive impact which is of course a small sample but no club that has sacked their manager in October or November during the past decade has gone on to finish lower than their position at the time of the dismissal.

There is likely to be more change to come. While summer is an obvious time for change, owners get trigger happy during December when an upcoming transfer window moves to the forefront of minds.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)