The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th September

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester City v Liverpool and Everton v Tottenham Hotspur.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Stratford.

- Tennis, the final weekend of the US Open at Flushing Meadow.

- Golf, On the European Tour, the Omega European Masters in Switzerland.

- Cricket, the third Test between England and the West Indies at Lords.

- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship round three. New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa.

Redzonesports

At Betting Emporium we know how hard it is to get bets on at the prices we want. We are always on the look out for trustworthy firms who will lay a decent bet at a decent price.

Some friends of Neil and Joe are involved with a great new set up specialising in American sports, notably NFL, baseball and basketball. it is headed up by Steve Baumohl (former head of US sports at Sporting Index). They do also cover the other markets but in ones like the NFL they will be betting 1.95 each of two rather than the UK standard 10/11 in the handicaps and totals markets and over a season this will make a decent difference to us all.

They will lay a decent bet and won't close you down if you win. We will be using them and suggest that you give them a try too. They also take decent sized bets on the Premier League and betting to 104%. They are called Redzonesports and you can open your account here

EXCLUSIVE BONUS:

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The New NFL Season starts this week!

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Free tip

2017 Rugby Championship Australia v South Africa (Perth, 6pm local, 11am BST)

The Springboks entered the 2017 Rugby Championship with modest optimism. They have improved a great deal since last year’s disastrous season. They claimed a 3-0 series victory over a weakened French side in June, and the bulk of their squad is made up of Lions players that went to a second successive Super Rugby final.

In the Rugby Championship last year they won two of their six Tests. They suffered two massive losses against the All Blacks and a first-ever defeat to Argentina. Later in the year they lost to England, suffered a first-ever loss against Italy and finished with a loss against Wales. Defence was a major issue, as well as organisation and tactics in attack.

2017 has seen the Springboks get off to a fantastic start. In the series against France defensive organisation was dramatically improved. In attack, the resurgence of the forward pack’s efforts in cleaning out rucks and securing clean ball has allowed the half back combination of Cronje/Jantjies to flourish. This combined with set plays brought in by coach Smith should give a talented backline far more of a chance to make an impact against any side in this year’s Rugby Championship.

The Springboks won both tests against Argentina to start this competition 37-15 at home and then 41-23 in Argentina and will be expecting to finish second in the championship, winning at home against and competing with Australia in this game away from home.

Australia were 40-6 down in their first game against New Zealand and only lost 54-34 as they threw caution to the wind and attacked as New Zealand took their foot off the gas. Then in round 2 in Dunedin they went 17-0 up, went behind early in the second half but came back to lead with three minutes to go before finally losing to a late try. 35-29 was a far narrower loss than everyone expected.

It was a re-affirming performance from some of Australia’s stars such as Folau, Hooper, Foley and Genia. Their playmakers and strike runners complement each other very well and  in their two games against the All Blacks they scored nine tries and 63 points.

Australia have talented players, albeit the team is in a transitional phase midway through the four year world cup cycle.Since losing the 2015 World Cup final to New Zealand, Australia have won fewer than half of their Tests and this match will go some way towards telling if they are recovering consistently.

Bookmakers expect this to be a very tight game. Australia are narrow favourites 5/6 outright and -1 on the handicap at 10/11, South Africa are available at 11/10.

The game will be won or lost up front, a traditional South African strength where the visitors will be looking to deny the Australian backline quick ball

Also note that the game is in Perth, four hours less travelling time for the South Africans than playing on the East coast of Australia. Furthermore it is potentially hostile territory for a home test match. Western Australian rugby has been in open rebellion since the Western Force were kicked out of Super Rugby and there is the chance to make some kind of point to the Australian Rugby Union at the team's home stadium.

I like South Africa to win this match narrowly, and they can be backed to win by 1-10 points at 11/4 with Betfair Sportsbook

8 points South Africa to win by 1-10 points 11/4 Betfair Sportsbook, 9/4 Sportingbet

There’s life in the old dog yet

The West Indies cricket team’s long term malaise is borne not only of poor depth of talent but by mismanagement of the game in the region. The current touring squad is missing up to 15 players, whose disaffection began in a dispute with the cricket board over money and they now either ply their trade in T20 leagues or have simply made themselves unavailable for test cricket.

It is all very well having a transitional period from one set of established players to another, all sides have those, but to do it with no senior players at all looked to be impossible when England beat the West Indies in three days in the first English day-night test at Edgbaston a fortnight ago.

A week later, the West Indies won the second test at Headingley at odds of no less than 20-1 before the toss was made. This victory has been justifiably described as "one of the great turnarounds in sport"

Since August 1997, the West Indies have played 88 Tests away from home (excluding playing Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) and including Headingley they’ve only won four. Startlingly two of those four victories have been in their last three teats, as they beat Pakistan in Sharjah earlier in the year.

Headingley was a fantastic Test and a great advertisement for the much maligned five-day game. The West Indies were absolutely incredible.

With the bat 23 year old Shai Hope was brilliant. He came into the match with a Test average of 18 and became the first man ever to score two centuries in a match at the ground. Hope and 24 year old Kraigg Brathwaite faced 109 overs in the Test together, scoring 390 runs. Brathwaite scored 134 and 95.

With the ball fast bowler Shannon Gabriel missed Edgbaston but came back at Headingley with 4-51 in the first innings, a type of bowler who reminds you of the likes of Wayne Daniel and Sylvester Clarke from the golden era of West Indian fast bowlers, all menace and intent.

He exposed England’s achilles heel and it is now, including yesterday when the side fell to 24 for 4, 20 times in 66 innings in the last 3 years that England have been at least 3 wickets down for 50 runs or less in their first innings. The strength of their middle to late order batting usually bails them out, but it remains a big concern ahead of the Ashes this winter.

Whilst it was always likely to be difficult to back up the performance at Lords, the West Indies are eighth in the world Test rankings and for now their surprise win quells the growing demands for a two division set up to Test cricket, where the likes of West Indies and Sri Lanka would play Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan and Ireland. Bangladesh beating Australia in the first test a few days later helps too.

For Test cricket struggling for crowds in many areas of the world and with mismatches such as those seen at Edgbaston not helping, trying to find its place in the modern cricketing landscape where T20 leagues are drawing more sponsorship and broadcasting money (witness the giant deal for the IPL announced this week) this pair of results showed there is life in the old dog yet.

Brodders Football Analysis

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Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at  01/09/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd September

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League International break with England in World Cup Qualifying action in Malta then at home to Slovakia next Tuesday.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Beverley, Chelmsford, Chester, Hamilton and Sandown. Over the jumps at Newton Abbot.

- Tennis, the middle weekend of the US Open at Flushing Meadow.

- Golf, USPGA Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston. On the European Tour the Czech Masters.

- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Spa.

- Cricket, NatWest T20 Blast finals day at Edgbaston.

- Rugby Union, the start of the new Aviva Premiership season.

Redzonesports

At Betting Emporium we know how hard it is to get bets on at the prices we want. We are always on the look out for trustworthy firms who will lay a decent bet at a decent price.

Some friends of Neil and Joe are involved with a great new set up specialising in American sports, notably NFL, baseball and basketball. it is headed up by Steve Baumohl (former head of US sports at Sporting Index). They do also cover the other markets but in ones like the NFL they will be betting 1.95 each of two rather than the UK standard 10/11 in the handicaps and totals markets and over a season this will make a decent difference to us all.

They will lay a decent bet and won't close you down if you win. We will be using them and suggest that you give them a try too. They also take decent sized bets on the Premier League and betting to 104%. They are called Redzonesports and you can open your account here

EXCLUSIVE BONUS:

Get DOUBLE THE ODDS on the Superbowl outright market for up to £100 stake!

Full details and open your account here

Use code EMPORIUM when signing up

Two NFL Ante post reports have been published “NFL 2017 Season Outright and Divisional Preview” and NFL 2017 Season Sub Markets” which are FREE to read and can be found here

Coming up on Betting Emporium

NFL New Season starts on Thursday 7th September (Friday 8th UK time) with Chiefs at Patriots (TNF)

See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000

Free tip

NatWest T20 Blast Finals Day, Edgbaston Saturday beginning at 11am SkySports

The semi finals are as follows:

11am Birmingham Bears v Glamorgan

2.30pm Hampshire v Nottinghamshire

The winners meet in the final later in the day

There have been two notable characteristics of this year’s T20 blast:.

Firstly it has been high scoring. This season there have been 27 scores of 200 plus including a British record of 260. The most ever in a season before this year was 20 in 2015.In 2016 there were 17. The most likely reason for this is that this year the competition is being played in a block, allowing players to get into a rhythm in one format rather than constantly switching between the four day and twenty over game. Playing in a block has also meant more availability for a number of overseas players (many of whom would previously come over for a few games, and be replaced later in the competition) and these international quality players have been playing more games.

Secondly the huge impact of Kolpak players has been undeniable. A quick refresher on Kolpak, a rule that means that citizens of countries that are part of European Union Association Agreements, which are free trade treaties between the EU and other countries, also have the same right. South Africa is part of a deal called the Cotonou Agreement with the EU. Zimbabwe and several Caribbean nations are also signatories, so their players are eligible for Kolpak deals too.

In 2009, the British Home Office ruled that to sign a Kolpak deal, a player must either have a valid work permit for four years in the UK or have earned a specified number of caps in international cricket.

The four semi-finals contain three sides in the top five of the ante-post betting and Glamorgan, 25-1 outsiders before a ball was bowled. Glamorgan in particular have been Kolpak heavy. Their quarter final side contained four South African Internationals and an Australian. Hampshire fielded four overseas internationals, two from South Africa, one from Pakistan and one from Australia. In these two teams were potential and actual match winners like Colin Ingram, David Miller, Kyle Abbott and Shahid Afridi

Odds are:

Notts 7/4

Birmingham 11/4

Hampshire 3/1

Glamorgan 4/1

The Birmingham Bears have had an interesting season. Initially a very experienced side they began the tournament with Ian Bell captain and opening the batting and 38 year old Rikki Clarke the key all rounder.

By mid tournament (and sitting bottom of the championship table) with inconsistent form, coach Ashley Giles had turned to youth.

Clarke had left for Surrey and then top three batsman Dominic Sibley came the other way. Ian Bell was dropped from the team after 250 runs in 12 innings and he resigned the captaincy. Stalwarts of the side in all formats such as Porterfield (149 runs in 7 innings) and Rankin (10 wickets in 9 matches but at 8.5 runs per over) were out of the picture too

The side that went to Surrey in the last quarter-final and chased down 205 to reach finals day had a top four of Ed Pollock, Sibley, Adam Hose and Sam Hain with an average age of 22. In the bowling line up were Adam Thomason, aged 20 and Olly Stone aged 23. Thomason is already the “death” bowler and Stone is 90mph plus.

These six were joined by new captain Grant Elliott (Kolpak, the match winner in the quarter final), overseas player all-rounder Colin De Grandhomme, wicketkeeper Tim Ambrose, a veteran at 28 years old Oliver Hannon-Dalby (14 wickets in the bast this season at 17 a piece) and probably the best slower bowler in T20 cricket Jeetan Patel who is a key player for finals day. He has 20 wickets in the competition this season at under seven an over.

This young side had a markedly different approach than the side fielded earlier in the competition, much more aggressive with the bat will the top four all prepared to go from ball one. This might be seen as a higher variance approach but it has become the norm of the best T20 sides. Making a score in the power-play sets up the rest of the innings and if it doesn’t come off the older heads in the middle of the Birmingham order can rebuild an innings.

Notts, with Hales and Wessels combining for 977 runs in the competition so far, Hales at an incredible strike rate of 206 should be favourites but the 7/4 doesn't give much to go at. They also have an experienced bowling attack with five bowlers who have taken 10+ wickets so far in the competition

Hampshire are a talented side.James Vince has scored nearly 500 runs and the combination of young leg spinner Mason Crane and Kyle Abbott have taken 33 wickets.

Glamorgan have leant on the batting of Colin Ingram with 451 runs and Jacques Rudolph with 378. Hogan and De Lange have taken 34 wickets between them. These four players are crucial as the domestic players in the team, a second division championship side, aren’t of the quality of the other three sides.

The semi final draw favours the Bears. Glamorgan have a punchers chance if Ingram come offs but Birmingham are at home, and Patel in particular is pre-eminent on the slow and sometimes dry pitches Edgbaston produces. Finally the new fearless approach bodes well for finals day.Back into the side might come England all-rounder Chris Woakes too.

8 points Birmingham Bears to win the Nat West T20 Blast 11/4 Bet365, Labrokes, Corals,Betfred

Fore!

The way viewers consume all sports now frequently on the go rather than on the sofa is shorter than it used to be. Like many other sports the landscape for golf has changed. Participation levels and viewing figures in the UK are on the slide. Even the R and A accepts they need to attract a younger, more diverse audience and find a way to retain people whose work and family commitments mean they are not able to spend four hours on a course.

A decade ago 4.7m viewers watched the BBC’s coverage of the Open at Birkdale. Last year Sky got 1.1million for its BAFTA-winning coverage of the Open at Troon.

Following this year’s Open the BBC at short notice won the rights to broadcast the USPGA, and its coverage paled into comparision with Sky with long delays, remote commentators and an anachronistic tone. That said for golf to prosper, it needs to be shown on terrestrial television more regularly.

When I was younger, I watched battles between Nicklaus and Watson, then Seve and onto Faldo and Norman all live on the BBC. The younger generation today, in an era where competition for viewing is not just other sports but consoles and social media don’t have the same reference point despite the existence of young role models like McIlroy and Spieth.

The same has happened in cricket. The consequences of the almost full retreat from terrestrial TV coverage revealed themselves in participation and viewing, and the ECB is now belatedly re-introducing terrestrial TV as part of its broadcasting packages for its new franchise T20 competition in the UK aimed at a younger audience.

Golf’s challenges run deeper than exposure on television, with fading participation also a concern: 1.54 million people played golf at least once a month in 2007-08, the first year Sport England tracked figures. Its latest report suggests that figure is now down to 1.31 million. Another recent study found there were 95,000 adult female golfers and 40,000 juniors in England, among the highest numbers in Europe. Yet other nations tend to have higher percentages of female and youth players. Just 14% of UK golf club members are women, while in other parts of the world it is above 30%.

There are what may be politely called golf’s heritage problems, the widespread perception the sport is flooded with conservative people. When a championship course such as Muirfield only allows women to become members in 2017 it reinforces the impression of a sport that is archaic.

Recently the chief executive of the European Tour suggested there were too many 72-hole tournaments and that there was a “desperate need for something else that can attract a different demographic, a new energy and a different time commitment to the game”. His solution was “Golf Sixes”, a six-hole competition that can be completed in little more than an hour. In the inaugural competition, played between 16 teams of pairs in St Albans this spring, the third hole had a long drive competition while the fourth had a 40-second shot clock.

In Iceland they recently experimented with a third way, playing professional tournaments on courses of fewer than 18 holes, without gimmicks. The country’s recent national match-play event, the KPMG Cup, played on 13 holes of the 18-hole Westman Islands course, as an example.

The traditional 18-hole game has two major problems: it takes too long to play and costs too much. Given the trend for rising land values across the world, it is not easy for courses to be built. So, it is argued, why not transform existing courses or create new ones with fewer holes and frequent loops back to the clubhouse?

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at  01/09/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th August

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Arsenal and Manchester United v Leicester City

- Racing, Flat meetings at Chester, Newmarket, Redcar, Windsor and York. Over the jumps at Cartmel.

- Tennis, ATP Winston-Salem, Connecticut and Louisville International Opens ahead of the start of the US Open at Flushing Meadow on Monday.

- Golf, USPGA the Northern Trust Open and on the European Tour the Made in Denmark event.

- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa

- Cricket, the second test between England and West Indies at Headingley.

- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Rugby Championship with New Zealand v Australia and Argentina v South Africa.

Redzonesports

At Betting Emporium we know how hard it is to get bets on at the prices we want. We are always on the look out for trustworthy firms who will lay a decent bet at a decent price.

Some friends of Neil and Joe are involved with a great new set up specialising in American sports, notably NFL, baseball and basketball. it is headed up by Steve Baumohl (former head of US sports at Sporting Index). They do also cover the other markets but in ones like the NFL they will be betting 1.95 each of two rather than the UK standard 10/11 in the handicaps and totals markets and over a season this will make a decent difference to us all.

They will lay a decent bet and won't close you down if you win. We will be using them and suggest that you give them a try too. They also take decent sized bets on the Premier League and betting to 104%. They are called Redzonesports and you can open your account here

EXCLUSIVE BONUS:

This promo has now EXPIRED. A new Redzonesports NFL promotion is coming very soon.

Two NFL Ante post reports have been published “NFL 2017 Season Outright and Divisional Preview” and NFL 2017 Season Sub Markets” which are FREE to read and can be found here

Coming up on Betting Emporium

See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000

Free tip

The Betfred Ebor Handicap York Saturday 3pm by Neil Channing

I'm having 9 Points each-way Star Storm at 14/1 1/4 1234 with Hills, Bet365 and others.

Walking Wounded

At this rate the US Open will soon resemble a tennis version of “Casualty”. Added to various injuries amongst top ranked players such as Novak Djokovic’s elbow and Andy Murray’s hip, recently joined by Stan Wawrinka’s knee, Kei Nishikori’s wrist and only yesterday Milos Raonic's wrist we can add Roger Federer’s back, hurt in Montreal a few weeks ago. All it needs is for Rafael Nadal, world number one again despite losing at or before the quarter-finals in his last three tournaments, to pull up and we will have the most unusual looking list of contenders in a Men’s grand slam since before the emergence of the “big four” a decade ago. For example look at the men's seedings: Zverev 4, Cilic 5 and Thiem 6.

Federer played in over 65 consecutive grand slam events up to 2016. The effortless backhand, the smooth movement across the court and the textbook service action all seemed designed to put the least amount of strain possible on his body. Then he missed last season’s French Open after hurting his knee running a bath for his twins. Now he has had a recent injury suffered on court.

It is not only veterans suffering. Nick Kyrgios is 22 years old and already has an alarming medical record. He withdraw from four consecutive events (Queen’s, Wimbledon, Washington and Canada) retiring three times with his hip injury before reaching the Cincinnati final last week.

The ATP Schedule is punishing and of the currently injured players Nishikori played 79 matches last season, Djokovic 74 and Wawrinka 64. Murray,hoping to play in New York, managed 87 matches in 2016.

From the World Tour Finals in November to the Gulf tournaments in January that precede the Australian Open the tennis off-season lasts six weeks. Murray is usually to be found accepting “sports personality of the year” in Miami at an off-season training programme where he drives himself forward to be yet better conditioned for the upcoming season and he effectively has no off-season.

The ATP schedule has long been a long annual grind but it is only in the last five years that authorities have compiled a comprehensive database of the types and numbers of injuries among players. One clear trend is an upsurge in hip damage to right-handers who strain from side to side in endless exchanges of ground strokes. Murray and Kyrgios are two examples of this.

Part of this relates to the increasing homogeneity of courts, with better drainage making grass courts play like old hard courts with less serve-and-volley and longer baseline rallies. Murray is essentially worn down by repetitive strain. His is a game based on defence, running and retrievals from yards behind the baseline.

We are likely in future seasons to see top men moderate their schedules, build in rest periods between major events and try to aid their longevity at the top levels of the sport.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th August

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea on Sunday.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.

- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.

- Golf, USPGA Wyndham Championship and on the European Tour the Paul Lawrie Matchplay Golf.

- Cricket, the first test between England and West Indies at Edgbaston, the first day-night Test in this country and the final matches of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.

- Rugby Union, the start of the Rugby Championship with Australia v New Zealand and South Africa v Argentina on Saturday.

Redzonesports

At Betting Emporium we know how hard it is to get bets on at the prices we want. We are always on the look out for trustworthy firms who will lay a decent bet at a decent price.

Some friends of Neil and Joe are involved with a great new set up specialising in American sports, notably NFL, baseball and basketball. it is headed up by Steve Baumohl (former head of US sports at Sporting Index). They do also cover the other markets but in ones like the NFL they will be betting 1.95 each of two rather than the UK standard 10/11 in the handicaps and totals markets and over a season this will make a decent difference to us all.

They will lay a decent bet and won't close you down if you win. We will be using them and suggest that you give them a try too. They also take decent sized bets on the Premier League and betting to 104%. They are called Redzonesports and you can open your account here

EXCLUSIVE BONUS:

For the first 30 days as a special promo for our members they will be offering a deposit £100 get £100 extra bonus. In order to get this bonus your FIRST DEPOSIT MUST BE EXACTLY £100 and you must enter code EMPORIUM. (there will be a 2x turnover requirement so you will need to stake £400 or more at odds of 2.0 or better). You can obviously make further deposits straight away. Open your Redzonesports account here

Today I have published the first of two NFL Ante post reports: “NFL 2017 Season Outright and Divisional Preview” which is FREE to read and can be found here

Coming up on Betting Emporium

See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000

Free Tip

Rugby Championship Australia v New Zealand Saturday 19^th August

10.30am Kick Off BST, Sydney

This game sees the start of the 2017 Rugby Championship, played between the four major southern hemisphere teams.

Sonny Bill Williams returns to the New Zealand starting line-up for Saturday's Rugby Championship opener against Australia. Williams, who was red-carded in the second Test of the British and Irish Lions series, completed his four-game suspension earlier this month and returns to the All Blacks midfield. Damian McKenzie and Liam Squire were the surprise selections in Steve Hansen's match-day 23, the New Zealand coach making six changes to the team that drew the third Test against the Lions. Five of those come in the backs with McKenzie selected at full-back. Ben Smith and Rieko Ioane are named on the wing while Crotty partners Williams at centre.

New Zealand are seeking a fourth successive Rugby Championship title while they have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003.

This may not be a vintage New Zealand team yet but they are undoubtedly favourites to win another rugby championship despite ongoing transitions at several positions in the team.

What is clear from the latest Australian squad is that coach Mchael cheika is keen to bring a freshness to the side, and has handed out squad call-ups to 11 uncapped players, seven of whom have never experienced a squad call-up at all. Some experienced players such as Cooper and Hgginbotham have been discarded too

The 2017 Super Rugby campaign has been a tough one for the Australian franchises. For the first time in history, the Australian sides failed to pick up a single victory over a New Zealand franchise during a regular-Super Rugby campaign, losing all 25 games. Against the South African sides, who have not been at their strongest either they lost ten times only picking up four victories, while they also lost more times against the Jaguares than they won: losing three times and winning twice.

Out of a total of 45 fixtures against the Kiwi, South African and Argentinian sides, the five Australian franchises won six, drew once and lost 38.

Added to this, Australia lost to a Scotland side in Sydney minus Stuart Hogg, Greig Laidlaw and Tommy Seymour in June. Cheika can still call on the talent of Israel Folau, Michael Hooper, Dane Haylett-Petty, Will Genia, Bernard Foley and Stephen Moore but they are surrounded by a lot less experience in the team and squad..

Since losing the 2015 World Cup final to New Zealand, Australia have won fewer than half of their Tests. This upcoming Rugby Championship is pivotal for Cheika’s team and could go some way to determining the direction Australian rugby will take over the next few years.

New Zealand understandably are prohibitive favourites for this game at 1/9 outright, Australia 6/1. Australia are 16 point handicap underdogs at 10/11 generally.

My idea of a bet here is in the winning margin market, where New Zealand can be backed to win by 11-20 points at 11/4 with Betfair Sportsbook and 12/5 with Coral.

8 points New Zealand to win by 11-20 points 16/5 Betfair Sportsbook 11/4 Ladbrokes 12/5 Coral.

Expectations

Already used by many clubs, analysts and bettors for several years the Expected Goals metric from Opta is moving into the mainstream, featuring on Match of the Day this season.

An expected goal shows the percentage likelihood of a player scoring from a position on the pitch and shows how many goals a player or a team should have scored based on the chances they had in a game or over the course of a season. Each chance is ascribed a 'quality value' (xG) based on thousands of chances analysed by Opta over the history of the Premier League. The higher that figure, with one the maximum value, the more likely a chance will be converted. xG is a way of establishing whether a player is scoring more or less goals than his chances should dictate. .

Each of last season's top eight premier league goal-scorers, the exception being Sergio Aguero, scored more goals than their expected goals would suggest. Harry Kane scored 29 goals, 10 goals more than expected by the quality of chances given to him or created by him.

Opta's key xG factor are:

• Distance from goal
• Angle of the shot
• Was it a shot or a header? 
• Has the player just gone around an opponent? 
• Was it a one on one or were defenders involved?
• What was the assist like? (e.g. long ball, pull-back, cross, through ball)
• In what part of the game did the chance occur? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick) 
• Is it a rebound?

Expected goals are useful when trying to anticipate turning points and reversions to mean ahead of betting markets, and in counteracting media/fan over-reactions to short term results.

Juventus in 2015-16 are an example cited by the BBC. They won only three of their first 10 games but analysis shows they were vastly outperforming that level of results. When results turned for the better and “G” became more correlated with “xG” they eventually won the title.

It can help when looking at both ends of the pitch, not only expected goals but expected goals against can be analysed. A team may be good or bad defensively, but might be doing better or worse in actual goals conceded than the xA statistic shows us

It is of course very early in this Premier League season but we can look at a few of last weekend’s games to illustrate what we might be looking for:

Southampton Swansea finished 0-0. We could see with our own eyes on highlights that Southampton created a lot of chances. The xG for two sides was Southampton 2.2 Swansea 0.3

Chelsea-Burnley? Down to 10 men early Chelsea were 3-0 down and lost 3-2. The xG? 1.3 and 0.7 respectively. Nothing to get too gloomy about for the home team, or too bullish about for the away team.

Crystal Palace-Huddersfield? Huddersfield won 3-0 but the xG? 0.9-0.6 (plus an own goal)

Everton-Stoke? 1-0  to Everton. Stoke? Their xG was lowest in the division over the weekend at 0.3 but Everton were only at 0.7 too

On Sunday, Newcastle and Tottenham began slowly and xG was well less than 1 for both teams in the first half. Then Newcastle were reduced to ten men and their xG understandably remained low. Tottenham’s leapt to 1.7.

Returning again to last season, and broadening out to a longer time frame the cumulative Expected goals for and against were as follows for last season's champions and this season's favourites:

Manchester City xG 79.4 xA (expected goals against) 28.4 xGD (expected goal difference) 51.1

Chelsea xG 64 xA 28.5 xGD 35.5

Statistics like this, over and above discounting what has happened in transfer market, help explain the bullishness for City this season that saw them go off around 2/1 to regain the title.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th August 2017

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the start of the Premier League season

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar

- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Montreal

- Golf, the USPGA Championship at Quail Hollow North Carolina

- Athletics, the final weekend of the World Championships in London

- Cricket, the penultimate weekend of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.

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Free Tip

Millwall v Bolton Wanderers Sky Bet Championship Saturday 3pm

Two promoted teams meet in the second league game of the season on Saturday. Both lost their opening games, Millwall 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and Bolton 3-2 at home to Leeds.

Off the pitch the two sides are very different. Millwall, who won the league one play-offs, punch above their weight as they are financially very thrifty. Bolton are still struggling with the impact of over-spending under previous regimes, are under a transfer embargo (and facing a recently adjourned winding up petition) and the Football League has put salary cap and maximum squad size (23 professional players) restrictions on the club as part of their rules on clubs under embargo.

Bolton played pre-season with, to some social media amusement, up to ten trialists per game as they shopped around to find bargains.

In Bolton’s squad of 23 they lost three of their better players to injury in week one. Their star player ,midfielder Josh Vela, was ruled out long-term with an ankle injury, veteran centre back David Wheater had to play with a back injury and has been sent to a specialist this week and winger Sammy Amoebi, a star of the promotion campaign, was injured too. Bolton may have to seek permission from the Football League to add a player to their quota.

The squad is so thin that midweek in the League Cup, four first year scholars played. It is set to be a very long season for manager Phil Parkinson under the operating constraints.

Of course the embargo, squad restrictions and financial struggles are well known, so what is the angle here? Well almost every team in the division can be expected to be odds on at home to Bolton with the visitors in such a state of flux, with the possible exception of a Burton Albion.

So why for Saturday would Millwall be available at 21/20? It is, after all, a notoriously tough place to visit. The unfashionable nature of a promoted side with a low profile squad might be one reason. Millwall themselves are expected to struggle this season. They also lost at Forest a week ago.

This week, almost by accident, I found myself looking at the stats for that game. Millwall’s cumulative xG (expected goals) was calculated at 3.25, and Forest’s at 0.51 which the analyst who compiled the report suggested would mean an away win 92% of the time

The match was on Sky Sports and I went to watch the “highlights.” Forest won with one (cliché alert) “moment of magic”

I then read match reports and post match interviews

Nottingham Forest manager Mark Warburton said:

"Millwall were very good. They deserved something from the game. They were direct, they were effective. They won the first ball and created chances”.

Millwall manager Neil Harris said:

"We dominated the game against a really good Forest side. The players executed the game plan perfectly. We worked into good positions and created good chances. It was a top performance. “

I think Millwall should be odds on at home against Bolton as the almost the entire rest of the division would be.

10 points Millwall to beat Bolton Wanderers 11/10 Bet365 or Betfred.

A brave new dawn.

Last week the expansion of the Guinness Pro12 to 14 teams was confirmed for next season, following the addition of two South African franchises in the Cheetahs (from Bloemfontein) and the Kings (Port Elizabeth).

There has been consistent speculation for weeks that both South African outfits would join the competition run by the Celtic League, which currently includes four teams from Ireland and Wales plus two each from Scotland and Italy.

The South African Rugby Union, in agreement with SANZAAR, the governing body behind Super Rugby agreed to cut both sides from the tournament ahead of the 2018 season as part of a reduction from 18 to 15 teams..

A six-year deal has been agreed between SARU and the Pro12 with the inclusion of the South African teams handing the Pro12 a significant financial boost thanks to increased TV revenue of around £6 million per year.

The new 'Pro14' will see the teams split into two conferences of seven, made up of two sides from Ireland, two from Wales and one each from Scotland, Italy and South Africa.

The new Pro 14 is significant development in professional rugby, and could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres

Increasing frustration over the years from South African players and supporters regarding the travel times and time differencethat comes with playing in Super Rugby has often led to discussions over whether a competition with teams in Europe would be better for player welfare, given that for the majority of the year South Africa is only an hour's time difference ahead of the British Isles and Ireland.

Now with the arrival of the Cheetahs and Kings those theories can be put into practice, with the newcomers expected to play their overseas away fixtures in blocks to cut down on travel time back and forth between South Africa and Europe.

The Cheetahs and Kings are the only two South African sides to have never played in a Super Rugby final, finishing the current 2017 season in 13th and 11th place respectively. However, the Kings comfortably surpassed expectations in their second year back in the competition, winning six matches including a shock victory against the Waratahs in Sydney.

Meanwhile, the Cheetahs, despite being defensively suspect, have become one of the most attractive sides to watch in Super Rugby thanks to their dangerous wingers Raymond Rhule and Sergeal Petersen, who have both featured for South Africa within the last year.

Expectations for both sides will be low in their first season, as they adapt to new environments and styles of opponent. Adding them to the Pro12 marks a new chapter and adds a new level of interest to a league that has lagged behind the Aviva Premiership and France's Top 14.

New Pro 14 - significant development in professional rugby, could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres.

With little time delay for broadcasters, no jet lag and the promise of far more practical travel schedules, the Sharks, Stormers, Lions and Bulls may fancy a piece of this too. Super Rugby is in a state of flux and if rumours are to be believed the partnership between the big three southern hemisphere nations has soured somewhat. Whether it works remains to be seen,but the idea and ambition is laudable

For the old Pro 12, it looks well worth a shot. If it works, it might be a major step along a route where a final aim may be seeing South Africa play in the Six Nations.

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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)